Is rising global warming out of our control for at least 50 more years and, are we really facing extinction?
"You cannot be called an alarmist if there really is something to be alarmed about." Unknown
Many have seen the news about global warming-aggravated weather, like the record-breaking hurricanes, the horrible wildfires in California, the western U.S. and in Europe. Many of you have heard about the "worst in centuries" droughts and dust storms all over the world, the super storms in India and the rain bombs worldwide where weeks or months worth of rain falls in a few hours or a few days.
Some of you already know that something bad is happening and getting worse. Some of you also know that 97% of scientific research done by qualified climate scientists clearly indicates that until we reverse our suicidal fossil fuel burning habits, the global warming consequences mentioned above will continue to significantly and regularly increase in frequency, severity, and scale each year and, these events will continue breaking all previous climate records.
But now there is a new shocking reality concerning our global warming future that you will hear discussed only by a few courageous climate scientists, our organization and one or two other global warming educational organizations. Soon the number of individuals and educational organizations that will be speaking out about the new global warming reality (described below,) will steadily grow as we continue to see larger, more frequent and more severe climate catastrophes.
Our shocking new global warming reality!
We will prove the following 5 statements to you in the sections and lnks following this introduction:
Fact 1: We are not being told the painful truth by our governments, our intelligence agencies or even our biggest environmental groups about how bad global warming currently is and more importantly, how bad it's going to get in the near future.
Fact 2: Because of our long delay in fixing this crisis, many global warming consequences are not only going to be far worse than we are being told, they also are coming far sooner than we are being told.
Fact 3: We have, unfortunately, missed our critical "window of opportunity" to effectively manage global warming and prevent most of its worst consequences and crossed tipping points from occurring. (Many of the worst consequences are now unavoidable and out of our meaningful control for at least the next 50 years.)
Fact 4: If we act correctly and immediately, we may still have a small amount of time (about 6 years,) to slow down the worst of these unavoidable global warming consequences just enough to protect ourselves and maximize our individual chances of avoiding extinction. (This is possible even though most of humanity will suffer and die far sooner than anyone is ready for.)
Fact 5: Because there is still no guarantee that we will act any differently than we have for the last 35 years to slow down global warming sufficiently to prevent a fast track to extinction, it is time for rational, wise and mature individuals to begin creating emergency backup plans and start their personal emergency preparations. This emergency preparation could even include migrating to areas that would be safer from the effects of global warming.
We don't expect you just to believe what we are saying. We expect you to read and verify the following 13 factors which are creating our current inability to control global warming for at least the next 50 years. If you are an insightful reader, in this document we will demonstrate with an abundance of facts and research, why and how the above 4 shocking statements are true.
We will also explain what are the most severe, earliest arriving, and the now most unavoidable global warming consequences no matter what we do. We will also explain that the above shocking new global warming reality does not mean that all hope is lost or that nothing can be done to improve things over the next 50 plus years.
If you're like most people, the 5 statements of fact in the introductory materials you just read will already be causing you to react with denial.
If you have the tenacity to keep exploring the facts and consequences described below, you will likely next become angry at "how could we (our politicians and governments,) ever allow this to happen."
If you still continue processing the many global warming facts below, you will most likely then enter into a bargaining phase to find some kind of a way to deal with such disturbing and disruptive information.
If you still continue researching and verifying what you are about to read, you will most likely next enter into a transitional feeling of grief.
As you work your way through your grief, you will eventually come to a level of acceptance of what is scientifically accurate, but currently is being widely suppressed by the fossil fuel industry, mass media, and the many politicians around the world owned by the fossil fuel industry.
Once you finally reach the level of acceptance for what you were about to read, you may likely begin the process of adapting your life and businesses to this critical information. You may also begin emergency preparations for the unavoidable, unconscionable, and other shocking global warming consequences described below.
The information in this document is being widely suppressed in the media partially to continue profiting on fossil fuel use by media partners and partially because those suppressing it are afraid of how you might react to this information. They are afraid that if you understand what is on this page, you too will demand that our politicians immediately implement radical cuts to global fossil fuel use while at the same time radically scale up green energy generation alternatives to replace our current fossil fuel use. This would virtually mean the end of the fossil fuel business which is currently one-third of the world's gross domestic product and the prime source of income for many fossil fuel exporting countries.
Additionally, a complete plan called the Job One for Humanity Plan will be provided at the end of this document on how to:
1. solve the many challenges this document present, and
2. adapt to the following disruptive information including more information about the Kubler Ross model,
If by chance, you feel that you do not adequately understand the basic science of what global warming is or how atmospheric greenhouse gasses such as carbon and methane from fossil fuel use cause it, please click here for a short simply illustrated explanation on these things before continuing reading the next sections.
A little history before reading the 13 factors that will make it unbelievably challenging to achieve the required fossil fuel reductions
In the new book Climageddon published by this organization about 2 years ago, it was stated that if we were very lucky, global warming might not become uncontrollable or irreversible for the next 50+ years if we immediately mass mobilized radical and correct global fossil fuel use reductions. Almost 2 years after Climageddon's publication, we now know that did not happen and because fossil fuel emissions are in fact going up and, there is a very good chance that it won't happen until sometime about 50 years from because of the challenges described in the 13 reasons below.
To prove to you the difficult reality described in the five facts above is true, it is first necessary to understand the many nearly intractable dynamics behind why global warming will continue to be out of our control for at least the next 50+ years. Once you grasp how these 13 factors and reasons fit together, you too will clearly see how we cannot avoid serious global warming consequences and crossing more critical near-extinction tipping points.
Individually almost all of the following 13 factors listed below will require decades to resolve. Collectively, the following 13 factors will most likely require at least 50 or more years before we will have any realistic chance of resolving the most important ones.
As you read these tremendous disheartening challenges we all face trying to reduce global warming to the real and required levels to save the future, Try to keep in mind that there is hope and it can still be done, but only if we deal with reality, get started immediately executing the correct actions and, we work together like our lives depend upon it.
And finally, many of the 13 factors below have individual additional links leading you to the full documentation proving that particular statement is itself true.
Our current "out of meaningful control global warming" is due to the following list of insoluble or nearly insoluble factors
Before we give you the 13 reasons why global warming is currently out of our meaningful control for the next 50 years, it is important to define clearly what we mean by out of control and how we measure it.
In order to do that, we need to briefly talk about the carbon from fossil fuel burning currently present in our atmosphere. Below you will see an atmospheric carbon graph. Carbon in parts per million (ppm) in our atmosphere is one of the best, if not the most reliable predictor of future global warming temperature increases or decreases.
Using this graph below you will be able to better understand what we mean by out of control and how we how much we are out of control. The loss of meaningful control over global warming for at least the next 50 years precisely and ultimately means that:
1. we are now unable to radically reduce our average annual increase in atmospheric carbon per year, (currently at about 3 carbon ppm per year.)
2. we are now completely unable to get our total atmospheric carbon ppm levels (currently at about carbon 413 parts per million (ppm) back down to anywhere even close to the previously safe levels of carbon 270-350 ppm. Those are the past save levels where our current climate could eventually re-stabilize after hundreds or thousands of years. (More will be said later about why the rise or fall of atmospheric carbon levels measured in parts per million is the single most reliable predictor of future increasing or decreasing global warming.)
3. although we may make some token progress in reducing our fossil fuel, those reductions will be so small compared to the critically needed real reductions that are needed, we will not be safe and, we will not be able to keep from crossing the near-extinction level global warming tipping point of carbon 500 ppm and, once we cross carbon 500 ppm, we probably won't be able to we keep from crossing the extinction level tipping point of carbon 600 ppm. (The biggest consequences of these two critical tipping points will be explained further down the page.)
Here is the list of the 13 reasons why global warming is now out of our meaningful control for at least the next fifty years:
1. We are not making anything even close to the required radical cuts in our fossil fuel use to reduce the carbon going into our atmosphere. This means we will not be able to prevent major global temperature increases, horrendous climate calamities, and near or extinction far sooner than imagined.
As you can see from the first atmospheric carbon ppm graph at the top of this page, we are not making anything even close to the required radical cuts in our fossil fuel use to reduce the carbon going into our atmosphere and slow or reverse rising temperature.
In order to prepare you for the shocking REAL fossil fuel reductions that must be made if we are going to save humanity from unimaginable loss, suffering, death, and likely extinction, it is first necessary to see just how poorly our previous fossil fuel reduction agreements and actions have fared since we were first notified about the global warming extinction danger by our scientists over 35 years ago.
What has been hidden from you:
1. We have actually increased fossil fuel use more this century than in the last two decades of the 20th century. To make this point alarmingly clear, more than half of all fossil fuel emissions that have been released in the last 25 years and parked in the atmosphere are more than were released in all of recorded history before 1990.
2. Even though we have had over 20 international conferences on fossil fuel use reduction, and we had international treaties since at least 1993 pledging we would reduce global warming, worldwide we still are about 67% higher in carbon emissions than the early 1990s. (Atmospheric carbon emissions is probably the best way to measure future global warming.)
3. In 2018 carbon emissions increased another dramatic 2.7% and they are projected to increase once again in 2019.
Yes, intentionally or through ignorance, our governments, the media, and most of the world's environmental groups have not been telling us the REAL facts about how what our REAL lack of any progress whatsoever in reducing the rate of fossil fuel use increases, much less the complete absence of any substantive reductions anywhere across the world in reducing atmospheric carbon.
Keeping the preceding horrific failure of any appreciable efforts to take seriously fossil fuel reductions, or even reducing the rates of increases, now please explore the REAL fossil fuel reductions that must be made to save our future. (If you don't believe we are telling you the facts about our dismal failure in reducing global warming over the last 35 years, click here to view a short video by climate Professor Kevin Anderson in a recent presentation to the Oxford University Climate Society.)
To slow and prevent the processes of likely going extinct, here is what is now needed to happen. The absolute minimum amount we need to reduce fossil fuel use to slow and prevent the processes of likely going extinct in the next few decades is as follows:
a. All industrially developed nations must reduce their total fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025 and then continue reducing fossil fuel use to net zero carbon emissions by 2035. Net carbon zero emissions in this solution means that no additional fossil fuel emissions are going into the atmosphere that are not also simultaneously being removed from the atmosphere by natural means. (Only about 20 countries produce 70% or more of the world's carbon emissions.)
Think of developed nations like most members of the G 20 group; Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, and India. (See technical note 1 near the end of this page for why China and India had to be included in the list of developed countries.)
b. All developing nations must maintain their total fossil fuel emission levels as they are at the beginning of 2019 and not allow them to go any higher. Then by 2045, all developing nations must also be at net zero carbon emissions. This allowance for developing nations to stay at the level they are now and gradually reduce down to net zero carbon emissions by 2045 is part of an essential justice and equity equation. The developed nations created their wealth by producing the far greatest majority of all carbon emissions in the atmosphere today, thus causing almost all of our current global warming emergency. (See technical note 2 near the end of this page for more about justice and equity allowances.)
There is much more information including what our individual, business and national annual targets would be, what will happen if we don't hit these targets, and the technical footnotes that will help explain the severity of these fossil fuel reductions in detail. We strongly suggest you go to this page and read all the qualifying information on these absolutely essential fossil fuel cuts before continuing on...
When all the above factors are taken into consideration, the above fossil fuel reductions are immense. To grasp how difficult these cuts will be, imagine that in the next six years you personally will have to cut all of your home (appliance and heating/cooling etc use,) auto, plane and other travel that uses fossil fuels as well as all business activities that use fossil fuels by at least 75%, then cut back to zero fossil fuel use within the next 10 years. Now imagine everyone else in all developed nations doing the same.
If you live in a developed country, are you doing this now? Does that seem likely or possible to you that you would voluntarily so change your normal life and fossil fuel use so fast? Do you see the governments of the developed nations of the world coming together anytime soon and, in a great act of cooperation passing the laws, verification procedures and the enforceable punishments necessary to make sure these cuts actually occur?
It is more likely that the citizens of the developed world who did not fully understand both the urgency and critical importance of why they needed to make these radical, immediate and painful sacrifices would literally throw any politician out of office or would even overthrow any government that tried to enforce these kinds of radical fossil fuel usage cuts to their comfortable or even subsistence level lifestyles and livelihoods?
Now imagine all of the individuals, corporations and governments in the developed nations that depend upon fossil fuel use or fossil fuel sales directly or indirectly seeing their livelihoods disappear by at least 75% in the next six years and then drop to zero over the following 10 years until eventually their industries no longer exist. How much of a fight and a global disinformation program would those individuals, industries, and nations create or put up to preserve their often luxurious livelihoods and their futures?
It's hard to imagine what the fossil fuel industry would not be capable of doing to preserve a $28 trillion year market segment. How far would they go to preserve their one-third piece of the world's total gross domestic product (GDP) in what they would have to see as a life and death struggle?
2. It is highly improbable we will ever make the critically needed cuts to our fossil fuel use in time to save ourselves. Another major reason it is unlikely we will make the needed cuts soon enough to save ourselves is because of what is called Garrett's Global Warming Dilemma.
This research states that because of the laws of physics and mathematics, almost all of our fossil fuel based global economy must first collapse in a necessary and steep global recession or global depression in order to produce the required cuts in our fossil fuel use to save humanity in time. This well-documented climate research by Professor Garrett is the research most often ignored by environmental groups around the world because it produces a horrible dilemma for which either answer is unthinkable as well as un-sellable.
Because of this dilemma, and because there is no public or political will to create a severe, but necessary global recession or depression to reduce fossil fuel use, environmental groups hide this critical research away and ignore it like dirty laundry. Because of the preceding factors, it is hard to imagine that fossil fuels use will ever be cut to anything close to the critical levels needed, until we are faced with truly massive global financial losses and billions dead and suffering. By that time, the worst consequences and higher temperatures of global warming will be irreversible for timescales far, far beyond the human lifespan. (if you're a science person, please click here and read a summary of Prof. Garrett's alarming research on atmospheric carbon, global warming, and the necessary fossil fuel reductions we must make to save the future.)
3. The projected new length of time it will take to move away from global fossil fuel energy generation to green energy generation to replace it. It is now estimated to take about 400 years to fully scale up green energy generation to replace all fossil fuel energy generation and uses. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) just published a new article where they lay out where are we currently in green energy development and why it will take us about 400 years to replace all fossil fuel energy generation with green energy generation. This means that any realistic hope we had for a fast transition in less than 50-100+ years to green energy generation to replace fossil fuel energy generation is completely unrealistic.
4. Promised new technologies will not save us in time. Some of you may hear this very difficult global warming is now out of our control news and will immediately think, "aren't they working on inventions it will suck the fossil fuel burning carbon particles out of the atmosphere in time to save us." If you're thinking that this is our easy out and easy solution to continue our fossil fuel burning "business as usual," please click here and read why this currently nonexistent carbon capture technology is a silicon valley techno-optimism delusion and illusion that not only can't save us in time but also is a mathematical and physical impossibility being forwarded by impatient entrepreneurs and mechanical engineers looking to make billions on the greatest catastrophe of human history.
5. There is still no international consensus or agreement for the critical fossil fuel reduction levels actually needed. There is also no real verification or enforcement of our existing international agreements (which currently do not require anything even close to the critically needed fossil fuel use reductions( as mentioned above in number 1.) The required levels for the radical reduction of our global fossil fuel use might only occur if there was a complete and total governmental commitment and immediate mass mobilization by all the nations of the world to begin radically cutting all fossil fuel use by the percentages listed above.
Additionally, there would need to be some form of international agency that had verification, enforcement and punishment rights and powers over all nations that sought to violate these global warming reduction treaties or agreements. That kind of power implies some form of global government which is also estimated to be many decades away at best.
Because there is no such international fossil fuel reductions agreement among governments or any mass mobilization by governments, (and there is likely not to be for many decades,) at the minimum, this means that we will be adding additional carbon into the atmosphere at our current average annual rate of about three or more parts per million (ppm) per year for about the next 50 + years and probably much longer. (See fossil fuel use atmospheric carbon graph further below and imagine another 150 carbon ppm points added over the next 50 years.)
6. The citizens of the world rising up as a single powerful voice to demand their politicians act immediately won't happen in time to save us either. This is because:
a. Making the required fossil fuel reductions will impose incredible hardship and discomfort on the individuals of the world. These difficult required sacrifices will make it very difficult to establish billions of people demanding less comfort and mobility from their politicians.
b. understanding the global warming emergency is incredibly complex. To fully understand the threat we are under, an individual would have to be significantly above average intelligence, have read thousands of pages of global warming research or, have an equivalent of a Ph.D. in climatology and systems science.
c. 16% of the human population can't read at all, a significant remaining percentage of the human population does not have either the undistracted personal discipline or ability to educate themselves sufficiently on the true nature of this complex and difficult to understand emergency.
d. there is an active well-financed and highly effective global disinformation campaign being run by the fossil fuel industries. Its purpose is to try to confuse or impair the ability of average citizens to understanding how bad global warming is right now, how bad it is going to get in the future and how soon things are going to come crashing down on top of us. These disinformation campaigns freeze average citizens in doubt and uncertainty, which freezes their desire or ability to act and demand the needed changes.
e. creating a general understanding in the public of how bad things really are and then getting the public to demand their political representatives act will take many decades at the minimum. This is because of the slow-moving process of education and consensus building, denial, and the intentional and well-funded global warming disinformation programs being executed by fossil fuel related industries and the politicians they control.
As much as many nonprofit organizations would like you to believe that grassroots, ground-up change will get our politicians to act and save us in time, this not going to happen with this kind of complex emergency. There is simply not enough time left to get everyone educated on this issue and then get everyone organized to get their politicians to overcome the denial and fossil fuel disinformation programs before the unconscionable mega-catastrophes described farther below occur.
7. A seemingly unstoppable continuing increase in average global warming temperature. Because of the laws of physics concerning adding additional key atmospheric greenhouse gases like carbon, global temperature will continue to rise as we continue adding more carbon particles into the atmosphere from our fossil fuel use. Adding an additional three or more carbon ppm per year as we are doing now for the next 50 or more years also does not include any additional calculations or the carbon ppm amounts for the additional energy use of the human population soaring from 7 to 14 billion people during this period or, that many more people from the developing world will move into the middle class demanding the same high carbon fossil fuel use comforts of the developed world. This near doubling of population and the huge increase in new middle-class energy demand of itself could spike current fossil fuel use of atmospheric carbon pollution by another 25 to 40% beyond what's being predicted!
When you look down the road 30-50 years from now and add the additional unavoidable 90-150 carbon parts per million (ppm) [30 x 3 and 50 x 3 carbon ppm each year additional] to our May 2018 current carbon 411 ppm total, (also see graph further below,) it is easy to see there is no way for us to keep from crossing the carbon 500 to 550+ ppm near extinction level. (More will be disclosed further below about the shocking and lasting effects of atmospheric carbon levels at or above the carbon 500 ppm levels as well as the carbon 600 ppm extinction level.)
8. The steady rise of methane in the atmosphere from new releases of methane from increased fracking, melting permafrost, and leaking natural gas lines. (Methane is about 86 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon to increase global warming. There is also a concerted effort by the fracking industry to prevent the accurate measurement of methane in the atmosphere and keep the ominous growing total methane release amounts hidden from the public.) When you add in the effects of methane (measured in part as CO2e,) for raising our temperature along with the effects of carbon, we are probably already well above our current carbon 411 ppm. Please take a look at the following methane graph.
9. The gross miscalculations of current global warming consequence timetables for many of the 20 worst global warming consequences. When the leading climate authority the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regularly miscalculate where we are now on many of the 20 worst global warming consequences and timetables by 25 to 40%, it causes the public to underestimate our current global warming status and condition. We simply do not realize that things today are already much worse than we are being told. Because of this, we think it's going to be much worse, much later then it will be. Therefore, we mentally start with the wrong global warming emergency starting point. To see how bad this is and how these reoccurring gross miscalculations occurred by our current leading global warming authorities because of the politicization of the science as well as other issues, click here.
(After you have read that gross miscalculation by our authorities article, be sure to read about the 20 worst global warming consequences here. Almost all of these 20 worst consequences will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale over the next 50 years as we try to resolve these 13 listed reasons for why we will not get our increasing global warming problem under control. Understanding the 20 worst global warming consequences is absolutely essential to understanding how 70 to 90% of the human population will die within the next 30 to 50 years. The 20 worst global warming consequences illustrated below create an intensifying "vortex" as heat increases drawing all the consequences into closer interaction with each other, which ultimately spins everything involving these consequences toward higher and higher levels of global destruction.)
10. The near insolvable problem of global warming justice definitions and global warming restitution and aid processes. In general, the industrialized and northernmost countries of the world have produced by far the most atmospheric carbon which causes global warming and its many consequences. These northern early adapter industrial revolution countries have created horrendous global warming consequences for the developing world, which as you can see you in the illustration below is located mostly between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south. Paradoxically, these northern industrialized nations who have predominantly caused the global warming problem will at least temporarily, benefit from the changes global warming creates to the climate in their nations.
The northern nations who are most responsible for the global warming harm caused to the developing world are also resisting paying for the damage that they have done to the developing nations. At the same time, they are also resisting taking in the existing millions (and the coming billions,) of new global warming climate refugees (climagees.)
In the following illustration, the lands above the 45th parallel north (above the orange line at the top of the illustration.) are where most of the human population will have to migrate to as global warming continues to accelerate.
The developed nations do not want to pay fair and just damages to the developing nations and to make matters worse, there is also no international standards of enforceable justice for the undeveloped world to obtain restitution for the damages that the developed world has done to it. There is no common international definition of justice or responsibility for an ecological atmospheric damage issue such as this.
With no definition for atmospheric justice and responsibility, it will be all but impossible for the developing world to receive what it should from the developed world. Additionally, the definition of justice and responsibility around the world not only changes in different nations, but it also changes in different cultures, religions, and ethnicities. Coming to a common definition of justice and responsibility on who pays fairly for the global warming damage they have caused will likely never happen. As a sign of this dilemma, the developed world has also not even paid the previously agreed upon and totally inadequate payment amounts to the developing world that they agreed to in previous global warming agreements.
This justice issue is highly significant in eventually resolving the global warming crisis because the developed world will most likely never pay just and adequate amounts of restitution or assistance to the developing world for the damage it has caused because:
a. those restitution costs are not paid just once. They will continue to rise exponentially as global warming accelerates. Damages to the developing countries will run into the hundreds of trillions of dollars.
b. developed countries will need all of their own current financial resources just to survive and stay up with the ongoing global warming catastrophes occurring in their own countries, and because of
c. inherent known and implicit biases against the cultures, religions or ethnicities of the developing world by the developed world.
Because of the above, developed nations will also not provide adequate additional funding to assist the developed world rapidly transition from fossil fuels energy generation to green energy generation and fossil fuel use to green energy use. This means that while the northernmost countries will use the resources they have to eventually convert their own nations to green energy generation and use, the developing nations will not have adequate funding to do the same while they are also trying to stay up with the ever-rising costs of global warming catastrophes.
This ultimately means that the developing world between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south, where most of the world's population now lives, will have to continue using fossil fuels at ever-increasing levels as their populations grow. This means we will not be able to stop the global warming emergency and the coming catastrophes because too much of the world will not be part of the solution.
11. Both the recent and the projected additional future crossings of many other global warming tipping points, positive feedback loops and points of no return within the climate system. As we continue crossing more global warming tipping points, the 20 worst global warming consequences will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale. But with every cross tipping point, those increases are radically more severe. This leads to what may be the most severe and shocking global warming realities in this document described in the following point number 12. (Please click here to read more about the 11 key global warming tipping points and what they will mean to how fast your life will change when they are crossed. Understanding the 11 major global warming tipping points is essential to understanding how 70 to 90% of the human population will die within the next 30 to 50 years.)
12. The unconscionable and accelerating effects of the soon to be crossed near-final and final extinction level global warming tipping points. If we do not immediately and radically cut fossil fuel use we will also eventually bring about the crossing of the extinction level tipping point of carbon 600 ppm. This tipping point will signal the probable end of most of humanity. If we cross the near extinction tipping point of carbon 500 ppm, it is highly likely that we will not be able to stop ourselves from reaching carbon 600 ppm tipping point.
Knowing all you can about these two carbon level tipping points and how we can keep from crossing them is absolutely critical to your survival and the future survival of humanity.
As if the proceeding 12 factors alone are not far more than enough to demonstrate that global warming is out of our meaningful control for at least the next 50+ years...
13. Other new climate research as found in the most recently published climate research, in the new book Climageddon and on other pages on the Joboneforhumanity.org website.
Because of all of the above reasons, based upon its ultimate consequences upon humanity, global warming is, in fact, already out of our meaningful control for at least the next 50 + years or more. Again, being out of control of global warming for the next 50 years does not mean everything is hopeless and there is nothing we can do to slow lessen or make a better future. There is much we can still do.
The combined consequences of escalating global warming will cause massive biological, economic, political and social collapses and will end the lives of as much as 70 to 90% of humanity in as little as the next 30 to 50 years." We have wasted decades of scientific warnings and now our bill has come due.
Consequences such as global warming-related mass starvation and mass migration is not 20, 30 or 50 years away. It is already happening to millions, soon happening to tens of millions and then to hundreds and hundreds of millions more over the next 10 to 20 years. Because of these and other global warming caused or aggravated consequences, if we do not radically and immediately change our fossil fuel burning behavior, crop failures, mass starvation, and mass migrations will continue to get worse each year and eventually affect billions of people and most of humanity.
At the bottom of this page, we provide links to a detailed new plan for how you can help slow down this emergency and prepare, adapt and protect your family, assets, business from the now unavoidable global warming catastrophes that will be soon arriving. Having said all of the above, we are now obligated to put this horrible new reality into a more appropriate and complete context to help you better understand and hopefully, respond to it. At the very bottom of this page, you will even learn about the positive things that this global warming emergency could bring about.
What the above means to your personal safety and security and your business's future today, this year and over the next several decades
Carbon is the current key greenhouse gas in raising the average global temperature. The carbon level in the atmosphere measured in parts per million (ppm) comes significantly from our burning of fossil fuels. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, most of this atmospheric carbon has been caused by fossil fuel burning.
Because of the known effects of greenhouse gases like carbon, an increasing carbon ppm level in our atmosphere is one of the best, if not the best predictor of future global warming temperature increases or decreases. On average, over the last 60 years, for every additional 25 PPM of carbon that goes into the atmosphere, our average global temperature goes up .5 degrees Fahrenheit or about .25 degrees C.
Understanding the coming major consequence trigger levels for our atmospheric carbon levels is how the people and nations of the world will manage its future safety and security. The following will help you understand these major atmospheric carbon consequence trigger levels coming up.
As of May 2018, we have 411 parts per million (ppm) of carbon in our atmosphere. On average, over the last 6 decades, we are adding about an increase of 3 + new carbon ppm in the atmosphere each year.
If you look at the trendline on the graph below, you can clearly see we are in serious trouble! In spite of everything you are hearing about all we are doing to reduce global warming over the past 30+ years, from the graph below you can clearly see that global warming from increased atmospheric carbon is not only continuing to get worse, but it is also getting worse at an even faster rate.
There are minor monthly variations in carbon ppm levels from year to year, as well as cyclical weather variations due to things like El Nino or La Nina. In spite of such normal carbon ppm variations, the clearly dominant trend shown above for the last 70 years is carbon ppm rising faster and faster.
At just these current carbon levels, the stability of the bellwether West Antarctic ice sheet has already been breached and this ice loss is now irreversible. (The West Antarctic ice sheet is an excellent example of another critical global warming tipping point the world has hurdled past far faster than anyone had predicted or foreseen.)
At the current carbon level and as it rises we will continue crossing more of the 11 critical global warming tipping points within the climate’s many systems and subsystems, but now at an even faster rate. Once we cross the carbon 500 ppm level, as soon as 2042-2067 or earlier, ALL ice and ALL glaciers on Earth will go into complete meltdown! Crossing the carbon 500 ppm threshold has, in fact, happened repeatedly in Earth's geological history. When this has occurred, the sea level inevitably rose to the 70 meters (230 feet) range. At our current annual carbon ppm emission rates, we will reach this catastrophic carbon 500 ppm range in just 20-25 more years.
If we cross that critical tipping point by passing the atmospheric carbon level of 500 parts per million (ppm), our average global temperature will eventually, but quickly soar to 4°C (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit). At 4°C, a large portion of humanity (hundreds of millions to billions) will die of starvation (or die and suffer from increased heat's 19 other related consequences) and, governments and society will collapse in many areas of the world between the 35th parallel north and the 35th parallel south.
Even though it will take many centuries for the seas to rise the full 230 feet, there will still be sea level rise spurts within those centuries where the sea level rise up to 10 feet or more in just a few decades as it has also done repeatedly in Earth's past.
Take a moment to visualize the seas eventually but steadily rising 230 feet and what this will mean to our coastal cities, our national borders and the generations that follow us. Take a moment to visualize the ever-increasing massive worldwide crop failures because of the ever-increasing heat and the consequent mass suffering of slow starvation as we approach and pass the carbon 500 ppm level.
Take a moment to let the following sink in. Anything at or above a 4°Celcius increase in average global temperature would be incompatible with an organized global society and would be beyond adaptation!)
Unfortunately, this is not even the worst problem we will soon be facing on the slippery and steep slope of the carbon 500 ppm tipping point. When we cross the carbon 500 ppm tipping point, it is also highly probable we will quickly reach the carbon 600 ppm extinction level tipping point within another 25-30 years (as soon as 2063-2072 or earlier.)
When this happens we will greatly accelerate the process of crossing more global warming tipping points. This will further spike average global temperature.
Crossing the carbon 600 ppm level will result in raising the average global temperature to 5°C (9 degrees Fahrenheit) and bring about massive methane clathrate releases from ocean coastal shelves as it has done before in the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum 56 million years ago, and most notably the Permian–Triassic extinction event, when up to 96% of all marine species became extinct, 252 million years ago. (Please click here to watch a short video that brilliantly explains the extinction process once we start releasing methane clathrate from our coastal shelves. New research shows we actually begin this release process once we reach 5°C and by 6°C it is in full bloom.)
Because methane, when released as a gas from methane clathrate is 86 times more potent than carbon as a temperature increasing greenhouse gas, it will once again rapidly spike up the average global temperatures once again. If it continues to rise from there, it will eventually bring about the extinction of most if not all of humanity (70-90%) and the end of civilization as we know it in the final phases of the Climageddon Scenario.
(Please note: There is now no mathematical way for us to prevent crossing the carbon 500 ppm tipping point where all ice on earth will melt! Beyond its mathematical certainty, there are numerous climate scientists who believe that crossing the carbon 500 ppm is inevitable because we will soon cross other climate, biological and human system tipping points covered on the top of this page. The previously mentioned factors leading to the inevitability of crossing the carbon 500 ppm tipping point does not even include the other accelerating global warming positive feedback loops already occurring throughout our climate system. (Positive feedback loops enhance or amplify changes; this also (like tipping points,) tends to move a system away from its equilibrium state and make it more unstable.)
Numerous climate scientists also believe that no matter what we do, we have already missed our window of opportunity to prevent carbon 600 ppm and that once we have crossed the carbon 500 ppm level, we will not be able to keep from reaching carbon 800 ppm (the near-final phase of the Climageddon Scenario.) (Reaching 800 ppm would once again be because of the accumulating effects of crossing more global warming tipping points that will continue occurring more rapidly after we cross the carbon 500 ppm threshold.)
Our reading of the current science indicates that if we do not immediately enact radical fossil fuel cuts, we will cross the carbon 600 ppm level. But if we do enact the necessary radical fossil fuel cuts, there is still an acceptable possibility that we can slow our crossing the carbon 600 ppm final tipping point long enough so that we can save some portion of humanity and transfer needed infrastructure into the global warming safer zones. (We could do this by immediately enacting all of the actions described in part three of the Job One Plan.)
At worst, even if we can not still prevent crossing the carbon 600 ppm level, we can at least, slow some of the worst coming global warming consequences. While even slowing crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point will be a Herculean task of massive global cooperation and mobilization, the probability that we can at least temporarily, slow many of the 20 worst global warming consequences is still quite good and this will allow us more time to get prepared for consequences we can no longer avoid.)
It is important to be realistic for future planning. As you can see the probability that we will not cross the extinction carbon 600 ppm tipping point is not good. Additionally, the final window of opportunity to prevent crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point will close in 5-10 years at best from 2018, if we have not made the necessary and immediate radical fossil fuel cuts. This is because of both the temperature momentum already "baked" into the climate system (the existing carbon 413 ppm level already in the atmosphere,) and the additional 3 or more carbon particles per million we continue to add to the atmosphere each year as we continue failing to adequately reverse our fossil fuel use.)
At 5°C and above, a large portion of humanity (7 billion plus,) will die of starvation (or of increased heat's or global warming's other 19 worst consequences) and, economies, governments and society will collapse in many areas of the world between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south. As we reach the carbon 500 ppm and carbon 600 ppm levels, we will also cross into the later and most dangerous phases of the 6-phase Climageddon Scenario climate model.
Take a moment and think about the bitter reality that at carbon 600 ppm as soon as 2063-2072, (or possibly earlier,) and we trigger the final processes that will bring about the extinction of as much as 70 to 90% of humanity if not more.
At this carbon 600 ppm level tipping point, civilization will begin collapsing in earnest and the unlucky survivors will enter into an ecological and climate hell. A new social dark age that will make the survivors of the following centuries curse us and wish they were dead.
As if the above was not bad enough, there are other important factors that need to be considered in the nightmare global warming Climageddon Scenario that we are now all facing. At the minimum, the relative time frame for removing (sequestering) the carbon particles that we are currently adding to our atmosphere at about 3 ppm every year is centuries to thousands of years.
This means that long, long after we stop polluting our atmosphere with carbon ppm from fossil fuels, the two carbon 500 ppm and 600 ppm near-extinction and extinction level tipping points as well as many of the other 20 most deadly consequences related to those tipping points, will last for many, many generations. Both we and future generations will suffer dearly for our failures to address and resolve this emergency now.
(If you have not read about the six phases of the Climageddon Scenario, which take you through the painful details level by level as humanity moves closer to extinction, please do so now by clicking here.)
Viewing the dangerous rise of human-caused atmospheric carbon in parts per million (ppm) from a historical perspective
The following graph will help illustrate what will happen to our carbon ppm levels in the future from a perspective of hundreds of thousands of years. As you can see in the last part of the graph, which has been broken out in the smaller yellow box to better illustrate the last 1,000 years, it clearly shows we have entered a whole new much higher range of increased atmospheric carbon risk and threat exposure. We have deviated from Ice Age long-term cyclical carbon ppm highs of about carbon 275 ppm to over carbon 400 ppm. (As of May 2018 we are at about carbon 411 ppm.)
Image via Robert A. Rohdes, Wikimedia Commons. (Parts per million by volume [ppmv] includes other pollutants and trace greenhouse gases, such as methane.)
For hundreds of thousands of years, we always stayed below 275 carbon parts per million by volume (ppmv)--the range conducive for human life. But with the advent of the Industrial Revolution and fossil fuel use, average global temperatures and carbon ppm have soared to levels unseen for millions of years (about 1.5° to about 2.7° Celsius.
This is very bad for our future and our civilization because carbon 425 to 450 ppm is roughly double the previous civilization safe highest Ice Age cyclical average point of about carbon 275 ppm for the last 400,000 years. At this 425-450 ppm level, we will be crossing more global warming tipping points at a faster and faster rate.
What are the timetables for the worst of the now unavoidable global warming consequences?
How fast it gets worse from where we are today and how much time we have left before the worst of the 20 major coming consequences global warming consequences begin to directly or indirectly affect you, your family, business or nation depends completely on your current location. In fact, some of you around the world are experiencing many severe consequences already.
In about 10 to 15 years, the escalating 20 major consequences of global warming, the accumulating mass migrations of climagees (climate migrants), and the global warming aggravated economic, ecological, political, and societal effects will have increasingly severe and destabilizing impacts in almost all areas of the world. Global warming consequence severity will increase rapidly within the next 5-10 years in the areas between the 25th parallel north and the 25th parallel south.
Within the next 10 to 15 years, the areas of increasing consequences severity will generally expand throughout the areas between the 35th parallel north and the 35th parallel south. Within 15 to 25+ years, life will more regularly become unbearably chaotic and unstable for those unfortunate individuals and businesses still trying to live and operate below the 45th parallel north or the 45th parallel south.
The key factors that will drive these mass migrations will be, crop failures and starvation because of increased heat and drought, sea level rise, crashing property values in unsafe zones, soaring property values in safer zones, breakdown of law order and society, increased resource conflict and war, wildfires, rain bombs and other types of severe storms and other major global warming consequence increasing in frequency, severity, and scale.
Depending on your current and ultimate location, financial loss and death tolls from global warming-related catastrophes will continue to rise steadily until we reached what we call the last phases of the Climageddon Scenario. This is where as much as 70-90% of the world's total population will die within as little as 30-50 years. This will occur primarily because of more crossed tipping points as well as starvation, migration wars, civil unrest and many of the other 20 worst global warming consequences.
During this remaining time window to prepare, adapt, or migrate, we will still have control of a good portion of our lives, far longer than those individuals who deny, ignore or are unaware of the new reality that global warming has become out of meaningful control for at least the next 50 years that would work. In general, the coming global warming consequences will almost always increase in severity, frequency, and scale over time and, their progression will not be a slow and steady linear progression, but an exponential progression with massive climate, biological and human system crashes and collapses.
Now that you have a useful and relevant developmental time window for our global warming emergency, you are ready to learn more about what out of control global warming is as well as how it will inescapably adversely affect your future, family, finances and nation, and what you can still do about it. At the end of this document, you will also find some good news and other surprise benefits that will also help you maintain a positive "bigger picture" context for the incredibly difficult situation we find ourselves in now that global warming has become out of control (as described below.)
The other materials below on why global warming is now out of meaningful control will also help you understand the other longer-term critical global warming emergency time frames and critical junctures that are unfolding as you read this and that will have powerful and catastrophic effects on our ecological, economic, personal and political futures. As you continue reading so much difficult news do not forget, if we are smart and move quickly, we can also still slow and lessen some of the worst of the 20 major coming consequences.
How long will it take for our out of control global warming to become controllable once again?
The preceding information means that it is highly likely various climate systems and subsystems will still continue in a positive feedback loop of ever-increasing average global temperature. Consequently, because of all of the factors discussed above this point we are, in fact, already in an uncontrollable cycle of irreversible global warming for at least another 50 years with more unavoidable catastrophes coming soon that will occur at a greater severity, frequency and scale no matter what we do!
Keep in mind that as the temperature continues to rise, we will always cross more tipping points faster and faster, which will result in faster and faster even spiking increases in average global temperatures and a cascading climate meltdown. (Please see the new book Climageddon for all the details on exact Climageddon Scenario meltdown.)
Additionally, it is wise to remember that at the minimum, the relative time frame for removing (sequestering) the carbon ppm particles we are currently adding to our atmosphere is centuries to thousands of years. This means that long, long after we stop actively polluting our atmosphere with fossil fuels (at least 50 years from now,) the 20 most deadly consequences of those actions will last for many, many generations.
What needs to happen to save your future and the future of humanity and our civilization?
As you can see from the first atmospheric carbon ppm graph on this page, we are not making anything even close to the required radical cuts in our fossil fuel use to reduce the carbon going into our atmosphere. To make the necessary fossil fuel use cuts, all global carbon emissions would have to be cut as has been presented above.
Those are the real fossil fuel use needed reduction numbers and not the grossly miscalculated and misleading reduction numbers better forwarded by the IPCC and most governments of the world. We are not making anything even close to these levels of mass extinction prevention fossil fuel cuts!
If you're a pragmatist, this and the other 13 reasons we will not be able to stop escalating global warming for at least another 50 years listed near the top of this page, means we will not be able to prevent massive global temperature increases, horrendous climate calamities, and near extinction complete or extinction of humanity far sooner than imagined.
This means that we have already passed the point of being able to control rising global warming as well as all of its related unavoidable and unthinkable consequences for at least another 50 years unless we can immediately radically cut our fossil fuel use by the required percentages described previously on this page. But can we really make those life-critical cuts in time?
If your pragmatist, you will most likely believe that it is highly improbable we will ever make the critically needed cuts to our fossil fuel usage in time to save ourselves. There are several reasons you are most probably correct.
One is that each year we continue to delay in making the needed radical fossil fuel usage cuts means that any future cuts will need to be even more extreme, which makes them even less likely to be done because of the even more severe hardships that they will impose globally.
As mentioned previously, another major reason it is unlikely we will make the needed radical fossil fuel cuts soon enough to save ourselves is because of what is called Garrett's Global Warming Dilemma. This research states that because of the immutable laws of physics and mathematics, almost all of our fossil fuel based global economy must first collapse in a steep but necessary global recession or global depression in order to produce the required cuts in our fossil fuel use to save humanity in time. This well-documented climate research is the research most often ignored by environmental groups around the world because it produces a horrible dilemma for which either answer is unthinkable as well as un-sellable to members and donors.
Because of this dilemma, and because there is no public or political will to create a severe, but necessary severe global recession or depression or to reduce fossil fuel use, environmental groups hide this essential and critical research away and ignore it like dirty laundry. Because of all of the preceding why global warming is out of our meaningful control for at least another 50 years factors, it is hard to imagine that fossil fuels use will ever be cut to anything close to the critical levels needed, until we are faced with truly massive global financial losses and billions dead and suffering.
Far before that time about 30-50 years from now, it will be too late if we don't make are last chance fossil fuel reduction targets. The worst consequences and higher temperatures of global warming will be irreversible for timescales far, far beyond the human lifespan. (if you're a science person, please click here and read a summary of Prof. Garrett's alarming research on atmospheric carbon, global warming, and the necessary fossil fuel reductions we must make to save the future.)
If you are a pragmatist and a mature adult, at this point you realize that for all intents and purposes, we have already baked in everything needed to cross the carbon 500 ppm point of no return --- no matter what we do! You have also probably realized that we have only the tiniest of chances for not crossing the 600 carbon ppm level over the next 50-60 years.
So what does all of the above really mean to the likelihood of either you or your children having a long, peaceful or prosperous future?
If we do not make the required radical fossil fuel cuts immediately described elsewhere in this document, there is now no mathematical way for us to prevent crossing the carbon 500 ppm tipping point where all ice on earth will melt! Beyond its mathematical certainty, there are numerous climate scientists who believe that crossing carbon 500 ppm is also inevitable because we will soon cross many of the other climate, biological and human system tipping points covered on the top of this page. The previously mentioned factors leading to the inevitability of crossing the carbon 500 ppm tipping point does not even include the other accelerating global warming positive feedback loops already occurring throughout our climate system. (Positive feedback loops enhance or amplify changes; this tends to move a system away from its equilibrium state and make it more unstable.)
Numerous climate scientists also now unfortunately believe that no matter what we do, we have not only already missed our window of opportunity to prevent crossing carbon 600 ppm level, but also that once we have crossed the carbon 500 ppm level, we will not be able to keep from reaching carbon 800 ppm (the near-final phase of the Climageddon Scenario.)
It is important to be realistic for future planning. As you can see the probability that we will not cross the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point is not good. Additionally, if we have not made the necessary and immediate radical fossil fuel cuts, the final window of opportunity to prevent crossing the carbon 600 ppm tipping point will close within about the next 5-10 years at best.
In part, this is also because of both the temperature momentum already "baked and cooked" into the climate system. (The existing carbon 411 ppm level already in the atmosphere, and the additional 3 or more carbon particles per million we continue to add to the atmosphere each year if we continue with "business as usual" and fail to radically reverse our fossil fuel use.
Therefore based on the validity of these ideas and the other information on this page, we must now also do everything within our power to actively limit the coming total damages and salvage what we can by:
1. making the immediate radical fossil fuel reductions required, and
2. preparing for and adapting to what we can no longer avoid so that we can save as much as possible.
What this also means is, that while you are working as hard as you can to radically reduce fossil fuel usage and, depending upon if your current location is in global warming safe zone and how well you are preparing for what is coming (as described in parts one and two of the Job One Plan,) you should still be able to fill your life with as much joy and satisfaction as is possible for the next 10 to 20 years. Therefore, the time to enjoy your life is now because the escalating global warming emergency is going to make life progressively worse faster and faster and, there are no guarantees we will be successful in the Herculean mass mobilization task of getting our governments acting in unison to radically reduce fossil fuel use to slow our crossing the final carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point.
There is another dark and chaotic possibility for our future that could also allow a small portion of humanity to survive. If we do not successfully immediately cut fossil fuel use by the radical percentages listed in this document, the other most probable way that we will finally and successfully curtail our fossil for use is through a massive die-off of about 70 to 90% of the human population. If we do not make our fossil fuel reduction targets this will occur and escalate over the following 3-5 decades. This will occur naturally because of massive crop failures, starvation and the other economic, social and political chaos linked to soaring global warming temperatures and its many consequences.
As billions die of starvation, or in migration and resource wars or because of the accelerating worst consequences of global warming and its tipping points, fossil fuel use will drop radically because there will be far, far fewer humans using fossil fuel. This is what may be the dark "last resort solution” that hopefully saves a small portion of humanity and civilization in the end if we do not radically reduce fossil fuel usage ourselves.
But even if this happens because we fail to radically reduce our fossil fuel use, it will still take centuries to thousands of years before the average global temperature and the planet recovers from what we have already done to it. Any survivors will be living a nightmare of higher temperatures, extreme weather and chains of other consequences we can barely envision --- just from what we have already done to our atmosphere.
As this document clearly shows, there is no escape or easy solutions. There will be unconscionable, unbearable and unthinkable pain whether we are successful in radically reducing fossil fuel usage or whether we are not successful.
We are left with this. We either make the radical fossil fuel cuts necessary and allow the world economy to go into a severe recession or depression and a huge portion of the human population consequently suffers and dies or, we do not make the radical fossil fuel cuts and almost all (if not all,) of the human population dies and our civilization ends as well.
In spite of all of the challenges and painful difficulties of radically reducing global fossil fuel usage to the required levels to prevent most if not all of humanity from going extinct, what other real choice is there? If we don't begin the reductions immediately, we can't even hope to slow down global warming just enough so that at least some small percentage of humanity will survive and civilization will go on.
In every situation above, the only way we save our future is to cooperate globally and to radically reduce global fossil fuel use to the reduction numbers mentioned above on this page! Even in spite of inevitably crossing the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction tipping point (and most probably also crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point,) no matter what, we must immediately do whatever we can to make the best of this horrible situation.
While there will be unimaginable pain either way, at least, if we are successful with our fossil fuel reductions, some of humanity and our civilization will go on.
This means we need to come together immediately and get very busy with what we still can do while we still have time left to do it! This means you must ask yourself right now "what can I do today to reduce my fossil fuel usage to the required target levels and deadlines" and never stop doing it each and every day until the target is reached before deadline. This also means you must demand the same radical fossil fuel use reductions in every business in which you're employed and in your nation so that everyone meets their targets.
At this point, you're probably feeling a bit overwhelmed by what you have read and the enormity of what we must do to survive. You may have also reached the point of saying it's impossible or, the task is so large with such a low probability of success, why even try. The following story should help you deal with these mindsets.
A wise Chinese general was cornered at the banks of a large river by an opposing army at least 20 times larger than his own. His only means of escape was to get his army across the river before they were attacked. This general had also previously placed enough boats on the bank of the river for escape with his army should that need arise.
As the larger army approached, pushing the smaller army closer to the river, this general gave the order to his most trusted lieutenants to rush to the boats and burn them. When his army saw their only means of escape was being destroyed, they became wildly angry and charged toward the general. The army demanded to know why their trusted general had burned their escape boats and condemned all of them to certain death at the hands of a vastly superior army.
The general calmly said, “We will win this battle or we will die. There is no other alternative and no escape.”
His army now knew their only option was victory or death. Filled with such clarity and single-mindedness of purpose, they fought with such reckless intensity, they defeated the opposing army 20 times their size.
Now that you truly understand the rapidly approaching consequences of our global warming emergency, you too should no longer retain any illusion of any long-term escape for you or your family business or nation. What you also may not have realized yet is that our 35-year failure to have previously executed effective control of the escalating global warming emergency means that we too, in effect, have already burned our escape boats!
Yes, this is the perilous tipping point that we have come to because of our inaction and ineffectiveness in addressing global warming for almost 35 years. If we are very lucky, we have about 6 -10 years left to make the required critical fossil fuel cuts.
By doing nothing to radically lower fossil fuel use, even if we fail, your inaction will only shorten the critical time frame necessary to move people, technology, and infrastructure to the far north or far south so that possibly you or those you love can be temporarily safe and live a little bit longer with less suffering. Most people would agree that living for a temporarily longer period with a better quality of life is far better than suffering more and dying soon.
Better yet, if we act wisely together to radically cut fossil fuel use now and we are lucky, humanity and civilization will continue. In the end, we either cooperate and work together or we die together.
What do you have to lose and, what rational alternative do you have than to act immediately to radically reduce your personal fossil fuel use and at the same time get prepared for what is coming? What legitimate excuse is therefore not to help us get our governments to enforce the radical fossil fuel reductions by the necessary deadlines and that only governments can achieve?
In order to help you and society prepare for and adapt to the current global warming emergency and more importantly, radically reduce fossil fuel use to slow global warming's worst consequences, our organization forwards the 4 part free Job One for Humanity Global Warming Plan.
What you can do today to help fix this emergency. Start the Job One for Humanity Plan!
The Job One for Humanity Plan is a critical deadline-driven “first things first” plan designed to help individuals and groups. In order priority:
- make the radical fossil fuel cuts required by the deadlines discussed previously. To do this we will need to get our governments immediately enacting the radical, painful and costly fossil fuel use reductions by law as well as the other verification and enforcement actions which will be required for humanity to survive. See Part 3 of the Job One Plan and Part 4 of the Job One Plan,
- implement effective personal global warming slowing strategies wherever possible in your current location. (See Part 2 of the Job One Plan,)
- make the necessary emergency backup and recovery preparations before it is too late. (See Part 1 of the Job One Plan,)
- adapt locally to the new realities of our out of control global warming. Click here for details on how to do this in Part 1 of the Job One Plan,
- plan and execute where necessary, an orderly migration of individuals, families, businesses, and communities as well as critically needed infrastructure to areas that will be much safer from the 20 worst consequences of global warming, (See Part One Of the Job One Plan,
- help individuals and communities which have migrated to global warmer safe zones become more sustainable any examples for the future. (Part 2 of the Job One Plan,)
- obtain effective sustainable lifestyle and livelihood action steps so that when we do get through this with whatever is left of humanity, we have already created the needed new sustainability practices that will re-stabilize our climate and weather at or near its original state --- a state which has successfully sustained humanity and humanities ancestors for hundreds of thousands of years, (Part 2 of the Job One Plan.)
Never forget, if we fail, there is literally no livable future you would want to inhabit if we do not also make the required radical fossil fuel reductions mentioned previously.
Never forget we are not talking about vague statistics and probabilities here, but the lives of you, your family and billions of other individuals, families, and children all over the world!
Click here to see and begin your first action steps on the Job One plan.
How will our escalating and now out of control global warming ever end and our climate return to normal?
Over many hundreds of thousands of years, our planet's climate has remained relatively stable and highly conducive to the development of humanity and our civilization. During those hundreds of thousands of years, the atmospheric level of carbon particles in our atmosphere was consistently around carbon 270 ppm. If atmospheric carbon moves much above or much below that 270 ppm level things do not work out nearly as well for humanity and civilization.
Our current out-of-control global warming over the next 50 years also describes the process of the earth’s average global temperature increasing or being maintained at an unsafe level over extended periods of time far longer than multiple human lifespans. At the minimum, the relative time frame for removing (sequestering) the carbon particles we are currently adding to our atmosphere is centuries to thousands of years. This means that long, long after we stop polluting our atmosphere with fossil fuels, the 20 most deadly consequences of those actions will go on and last for many generations, and both we and future generations will suffer dearly for our failures to address and resolve this emergency now.
Luckily, nature has an amazing ability to heal itself over great spans of time. To lower the world's average global temperature and atmospheric carbon levels back to the relatively safe preindustrial levels of carbon 270-350 ppm, we must scale up green energy generation over the next 100 plus years to replace all fossil fuel energy generation and we must radically cut fossil fuel use by the percentages and deadlines described previously. If we do that it may take centuries to thousands of years but nature will take care of itself and clean our atmosphere.
A summary of why we are out of meaningful control of global warming for at least the next 50 years
The initial temperature range for triggering the beginning of out of control global warming varies between 1.7 to 2.2° Celsius (about 3- 4° Fahrenheit.) This is, unfortunately, where we are at now or, very close to that temperature when you also add in and compensate for the following factors:
1.) all of the gross miscalculations and,
2. all other already committed or “baked in” temperature increasing factors due to climate, ecological, geological and human system momentums and inertias that are already active and which, are explained in part in on this page in the 13 reasons section. (Committed global warming simply means that even though we are not there yet, we are unavoidably committed to reaching some certain temperature level in the future first because of what has happened in the past but also what is happening now. Committed or "baked in" global warming occurs due to complex climate processes, including numerous climate system and climate subsystem momentums and inertias which are too complex to describe fully here, but are fully described in the new Climageddon book.)
Deriving its foundation from points 1 and 2 (just above,) our current out of control global warming is a distinct new climate state created by the combination of:
a. increasing average global temperatures for at least the next 50 years,
b. currently crossed and soon to be crossed additional global warming tipping points,
c. the many global warming caused consequences of the climate system interacting among themselves and with biological, ecological and human (social, economic and political,) systems with increased severity, frequency, and scale, and,
d. the multiple self-reinforcing climate system and subsystem positive feedback loops that will continue occurring. (If you are not sure of what a positive feedback loop mentioned above is and why it will be so bad for your climate future, please take the time to explore this link.)
From all of the preceding additional facts on this page, you should now be able to clearly see that the truth behind why global warming is now out of our meaningful control for at least the next 50 years is:
a. because all of the above prevents us from having the ability to either radically reduce our fossil fuel levels as now required and as described previously or, to radically reduce our average annual increase in atmospheric carbon (of about 3 carbon ppm per year,) and far more importantly, this then also results in...
b. our not being able to ever get our atmospheric carbon ppm levels back down anywhere close to the safe carbon 300 to 270 ppm levels where it has been for hundreds of thousands of years and, where our climate would re-stabilize at preindustrial levels and we would be safe and flourish once again.
And here's the biggest takeaway. Because we are out of meaningful control of global warming for the next 50 years, we are now facing an imminent extinction threat and event. Imminent is the correct word because the processes leading to the extinction of humanity is already well underway and, as much as 70 to 90% of humanity will suffer and die within as little as the next 30 to 50 years.
Accordingly, if you have not done so already, we strongly recommend that you read about the 6 phase Climageddon Scenario which lays out in great detail the unfolding worsening consequences and step-by-step phases of how we cross over the last threshold to lose our control and ability to prevent our own extinction.
Finally, some good news and the other surprise benefits of our currently out of control global warming to help you keep this difficult news in perspective
Even though global warming has now reached a level of being out of control for at least the next 50 years, depending upon where you live in the world many of us still have a significant amount of time left to make our emergency preparations, adapt our environments, lifestyles, and livelihoods wherever possible, and where necessary, migrate to say for global warming safe zones to save ourselves, much of humanity and our civilization. Once we have wisely made our emergency preparations, adaptations or migration if necessary, we still may have a few decades left to live meaningful and enjoyable lives, but only if we are knowledgeable about what is coming.
The following expanded good news is most certainly needed to counterbalance the above difficult news. The full good news is:
1. We are intelligent and adaptive beings and we are able to solve or adapt to almost anything.
2. In order to create the best possible outcome for ourselves and those we love, we can need to squarely face this emergency and prepare for and adapt to it. If we start immediately, and we work together using an effective, prioritized plan like the one we have created called the Job One for Humanity Plan, many of us will still survive and thrive (about 10-30 % of the world's population,) when this is over.
3. The future is unknown and full of unpredictable negative and positive wild cards. This also means that there is still hope for some of humanity and civilization to survive, but only if we quickly exercise responsible, intelligent and effective, "first things first" Job One Plan critical path adaptive actions to survive the global warming emergency.
4. We can still fully enjoy each day (as best as we can, even in spite of the rapidly destabilizing climate, escalating global warming catastrophes and other deteriorating or retrogressing other major converging global challenges that will be made much worse because of global warming. We can and should make our lives as happy and as meaningful as they can be during this global warming retrogression and transitional period. We can continue to live meaningful and enjoyable lives for many years to come if we are wise and act immediately to radically reduce fossil fuel use and to prepare and plan for what is now unavoidable!
5. Overcoming this global warming emergency as well as our other major converging global challenges will also help us better solve even our currently unknown future challenges as one effective and united human family, and it will eventually help us create a sustainable prosperity for all. It is important to understand our other major converging global challenges because our current global warming emergency is also occurring simultaneously while these other challenges are unfolding.
Additionally escalating global warming is also a multiplier of these other challenges. These other major converging global challenges in many cases also help cause and/or magnify the global warming emergency. Some of these other major converging global challenges contain the roots of the deepest causes behind the global warming emergency.
6. Hopefully, enough of us should be able to make it through this escalating global warming evolutionary bottleneck and minimize the worst of this temporary transitional evolutionary retrogression that we are currently in (and creating.) Life and humanity have had many species ending evolutionary retrogressions in the past.
7. Working together we will by necessity need to build many new sustainable eco-communities in the global warming safe zones. These new eco-communities will serve as a critically necessary backup plan for humanity and civilization. They will also act as successful examples and "beacons of light" teaching the new sustainable lifestyles and livelihoods vital to even having a future. (For more information on these eco-communities see the new eco-community model at our sister website.)
8. We should be encouraged by the fact that in the last 4.5 billion years of Earth's evolution, some form or aspect of life has survived 5 previous mass extinctions.
9. There are more good news and surprise benefits about the global warming emergency that offers additional hope for the evolution of humanity, click here for them. This surprise benefits page is one of the most read pages on our website!
As Michael Dowd the evolutionary teacher likes to say "what really matters is coming back into right relationship with reality." Because we have failed to effectively resolve escalating global warming over the last 35 years of warnings by our best scientists, we will now literally be forced by its escalating consequences to come back into a new right relationship with reality or we will perish!
To create a right relationship with the reality of out of control global warming our organization has also evolved into an eco-community of sustainability advocates and Evolutioneers that value the wisdom of appropriate threat preparedness, adaptability and living sustainably. We are not fear manipulated or fear dominated, but we also will never ignore painful data that should trigger protective and useful evolutionary fear reactions, like our current global warming emergency. We use such "warning feedback" and appropriate evolutionary fear to wisely anticipate, avoid, prepare and/or adapt.
We are preparing and growing our local eco-community in advance for this transitional global warming crisis and its new kind of evolutionary bottleneck and retrogression. We are doing this solely because the current facts clearly shout that many of our ecological (and in some areas even our economic, political and social systems,) are in severe challenge or, are nearing critical tipping points or collapse with no or low remaining recovery resilience left to "right the ship." Nowhere is this now more true than in the catastrophe amplifying and multiplying area of our escalating global warming emergency.
To the discerning evaluator and researcher both human history and the current global warming facts indicate that many of our other non-global warming converging global challenges will continue to get worse faster with little realistic hope of correction before a chain reaction of multiple or, cascading global catastrophes and crossed tipping points shakes us and wakes us to the need for drastic and immediate evolutionary improvement toward more sustainable livelihoods and lifestyles.
Because of what we are now doing as a species (expanding fossil fuel use and its consequent atmospheric carbon pollution,) and not doing, (immediately establishing strictly enforceable international carbon pollution limitation laws,) global warming is rapidly getting worse now on an exponential curve. And, it will get much, much worse in the decades to come. And, we really can't do much about it at this late date with our current political and economic global warming remedial actions, conditions and inertia.
We are not detached survivalists waiting for the end of the world! We are engaged sustainability advocates and Evolutioneers working actively to create a better world. We believe whole-heartedly in working for the best possible future while at the same time wisely being prepared for the worst possible and temporary transition period.
To help deal with this global warming emergency, we also envision that by necessity and as a safeguard, there also needs to be a widespread establishment of multitudes of new eco-communities in all of the global warming safe zones. They will play an essential (and possibly major,) role in securing the survival of humanity and civilization and in the establishment of the new sustainable prosperity vision within the post-global warming culture.
By helping to create these new backup eco-communities in the global warming save zones, driven into creation by the urgency of the global warming emergency, we together can help ensure a better path for the long-term future of humanity and our civilization.
We will enact our mission and message only by using only peaceful and evolutionary means and where we can still find enjoyment and joy in relationship and experience of our day to day lives.
And finally, even if the escalating global warming emergency and the convergence of it with humanity's other major converging global adaptive challenges was somehow resolved in the next 30 to 50 years or turned out to be not as bad as is currently predicted fire current science, we would be better off for our redemption of sustainability practices, and these new eco-communities would function even better and more joyously on their other goals of helping to co-create the necessary re-structuring and re-alignment of society necessary to create:
b.) a just civilization and
c.) thriving and meaning-filled individuals and communities --- all of which will better align with and forward the progressive evolution of life in the universe.
A summary of this page
For at least the next 50 years, we no longer have the ability to adequately reduce atmospheric carbon levels caused by our burning of fossil fuels to prevent global warming's 20 worst consequences as well as the crossing of more of global warming's 11 critical tipping points. This new out of control global warming reality has consequences of such severity that it will end the lives of as much as 70 to 90% of humanity in as little as the next 30 to 50 years.
The reality of our out of control global warming has been predetermined by the immutable cause-and-effect laws of physics and the inescapable mathematics and momentums of the rising past and present carbon ppm levels in our atmosphere. No amount of fossil fuel disinformation or conservative or progressive denial can change the physics and math of the deadly emergency we are caught in.
We are in the beginning stages of out of control global warming simply because we are currently unable to do anything effective to prevent carbon ppm levels from continuing to rise at about 3 or more ppm per year for at least 50 years.
Most conservatives in the US deny global warming. Most progressives do not deny that there is global warming, but they do either deny or are grossly ignorant about how bad global warming is really going to get as well as how soon those really bad consequences are going to happen.
The question of the century has now become; do we continue to deny the ominous out of control global warming reality and, alternatively fail to slow it as much as we can while we also simultaneously prepare ourselves and adapt as well as we can to what is now unavoidable?
At this point, our greatest task may turn out to be, to begin to salvage whatever we can of humanity and our civilization before even that is too late.
At this point, if we continue to deny the new global warming reality of being out-of-control for at least the next 50 years, we will not prepare or adapt in time. If we continued to deny, we will also not promote the necessary mass global mobilization and governmental actions for radically cutting fossil fuel use and increasing green energy generation in order to help save as many individuals as possible and preserve the critical infrastructure of civilization. (Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
Crossing carbon 500 ppm is a the super-slippery fast slope to reaching the carbon 600 ppm extinction level. Crossing just the carbon 425-450 level also condemns us to endless chains of crossing more global warming tipping points, which then directly leads to extinction level consequences growing in frequency, severity, and scale across climate, human, and ecological systems.
There is still hope that we can prevent the later phases of the Climageddon Scenario end-of-the-world climate model from occurring, but only if we act now and make the radical and immediate global fossil fuel use reductions as described above and enact the other steps of the Job One Plan!
There is currently no way to effectively reverse our current global warming condition for at least 50 years and then it will probably take centuries to hundreds to thousands of years for it to fully return to its past safe normal range of about carbon 300 to 270 ppm.
If we do not immediately and radically reduce our fossil fuel usage according to the targets mentioned above there are now only ways to prepare for and adapt to what is unavoidable while hoping to slow it enough to have a few of us survive it!
When the general public finally is able to take into account all of the above facts concerning the causes and conditions behind our out of control global warming reality, critical-thinking individuals and organizations will agree that we have, in fact, already entered a new extremely dangerous state of out-of-control global warming for at least the next 50 years and it's time to take the radical actions necessary while starting to salvage whatever we can.
Is there a message conflict here?
While at times it may sound like our global warming message is conflicted, but it is not. We are always working for the best (toward making the immediate radical fossil fuel cuts required,) while at the same time preparing for the worst (preparing to save and salvage whatever we can of humanity and civilization.)
Once we have prepared for the worst, (much like in an airplane emergency where you put on your own oxygen mask on first before putting your children's mask on,) we then forget about our emergency preparations once done and focus ALL of our energies on working for the best possible outcome --- making the radical fossil fuel reductions in time to prevent the extinction of most if not all of humanity.
Still, don't believe that global warming is out of control for at least the next 50 years? Let us continue to prove it to you!
All of the preceding, and far more information about how we have created our current out of control global warming nightmare and global warming emergency can be found in the new Climageddon book. If you want to get a printed or ebook versions of Climageddon from Amazon, click here.
Each purchase of a printed version of Climageddon helps support the Job One for Humanity nonprofit organization and our Job One Plan to help you survive and thrive through our current global warming emergency.
If you are wondering how did this gross misinformation of the general public and our current state of out of control global warming and crisis happen?
If you're feeling fearful, upset, in denial or anxious about what you have read
Yes, global warming is now unfortunately out of control for at least the next 50 years and there are major, unthinkable and unavoidable consequences coming at carbon 500 and 600 ppm. Those are very hard facts to process! If you are still having trouble dealing with the very upsetting reality of out of control global warming and its worst consequences coming soon, we strongly suggest you immediately start applying the 5 emotional transition level Kubler Ross model to help you deal with your fear or anxiety.
It is the emotional model now being used to help people deal with the news from their doctor that they are going to die over some known time period. It has relevance because, once you truly grasp the scale and seriousness of the rapidly escalating global warming emergency as described above, you too will realize that our lives and our children's lives are clearly going to be far more time-limited than we ever imagined, while at the same time, they will also be severely affected by global warming's 20 worst consequences.