The December 2015 Paris Climate Conference initiated by the United
Nations Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) will be
attended by leaders of most of the nations of the world.
It is being widely touted by scientists, environmental groups as well as
progressive global media as our last hope for saving the world from
irreversible global warming and the cataclysmic damage caused by
the greenhouse effect of carbon and methane pollution of the
atmosphere. To achieve this goal at Paris the IPCC has set the target
of keeping global warming below 2°Celsius (about 3.7 degrees F.)
The irreversible global warming threat that the Paris Climate
Conference is ultimately trying to prevent is scary. Irreversible global
warming (aka runaway climate change or runaway global warming) is
hypothesized to follow a tipping point within the climate system after
accumulated climate changes initiate a reinforcing positive feedback
This process is thought to cause the climate to rapidly change until the
climate reaches a new stable condition. Some astronomers use the
expression runaway greenhouse effect to describe the situation where
the climate deviates so irreversibly, catastrophically and permanently
from the original state that it mimics what happened on Venus when it
caused that planet to lose all of its atmosphere.
At the Paris Conference the leaders of the world will bring their
voluntary pledges for how much they're going to reduce carbon and
methane pollution to reduce global warming. Believing that the total
accumulation of all of these national carbon and methane reduction
pledges will produce all of the time-critical actions necessary to ensure
Here's what you can really expect to happen at and after the Paris
1 To our extreme peril the world’s politicians and policymakers will
make inadequate pledges based on the IPCC ’s climate data
underestimation figures as well as the IPCC’s incomplete risk
analysis, which failed to include high-impact climate tipping point
2 The world’s politicians and policymakers will likely not increase
their pledges even the additional 25% by which they are below
what is needed to meet the underestimated IPCC calculations. If
these politicians and policymakers were truly serious, and we
had the correct climate data, they would immediately meet all of
the IPCC’s current inaccurate and underestimated climate goals
with their pledges. Next, they would boost those pledges by
another 25 to 50% to compensate for the widely known IPCC
climate data underestimation problem. And finally, because
these additional critical global warming reduction pledge
increases of 25 or 50% also do not factor in any climate tipping
points, even greater national pledge levels would need to
calculated and made.
3 In place of real, verifiable and consistently enforceable Paris
pledges that radically reduce fossil fuel emissions, you will
instead see grandstanding national politicians and policymakers
playing to the media, making toothless, impotent public relations
reduction pledges, knowing that while they are making these
pledges they can never really be held accountable to any
independent verification or outside penalty enforcement if they
4 The media will be feeding the grandstanding politicians’ and
policymakers’ toothless and impotent pledges to the public. This
will then feed the public’s false and inappropriate sense of
climate safety and security.
5 The conference attendees and protesters who understand why
the Paris Conference was doomed to fail before it began will be
filled with frustration. In some cases that frustration will pour out
onto the streets of Paris as angry protests.
6 The inadequate and toothless national pledges will not slow
escalating global warming enough to keep the world from
crossing important climate tipping points, leading to irreversible
global warming and catastrophic climate destabilization.
7 The governments of the world will have missed what many have
called its last opportunity to make the radical, painful and difficult
changes necessary to save us from this global crisis.
8 In spite of all but certain failure in Paris, there will be those
attendees, environmental groups and protesters who will try to
save face by saying that at least the Paris Climate Conference
made some progress in creating national carbon and methane
reduction pledges, even though they are non-enforceable or not
independently verifiable. Those individuals will be unwisely
continuing to support a dangerous delusion of false climate
safety and security that also has to be broken within the global
warming education community to keep us from going into
irreversible global warming.
9 Individuals, businesses and nations that ARE accurately
informed about the real facts about global warming crisis will
begin preparing their climate emergency contingency plans and
migration plans to areas that are projected in computer models
to be the least damaged by escalating global warming.
10 The agents of fossil fuel industries and fossil fuel producing
nations, through “false flag” and “agent provocateur” operations,
will use and feed the natural frustration of conference attendees
and protesters to reinforce and spread the message that the
global warming movement is composed of eco-radicals and that
things are okay and safe if we just don't change our fossil fuel
policies too much.
Why we should be very worried about the Paris conference failure and
what you can do next?
Frantically sending the Titanic’s steering crew to the engine room to
help fix a leak while still on an immediate collision course with an
iceberg is not real progress. It is a wrong prioritization and delusional
alternative to the smart move of simply steering away from the
iceberg. The Paris Conference appears to be inexorably headed
toward its own kind of iceberg of structurally inadequate total pledges
to stem global warming.
Like in the fable of The Emperor’s New Clothes, few in the global
warming educational movement are willing to say Emperor IPCC’s
processes and solution projections are naked. Indirect proof that the
IPCC as emperor is quite naked is that we are still dramatically losing
the battle with global warming and our losses just keep getting worse!
Current greenhouse gas atmospheric carbon (CO2) pollution values
are more than 100 parts per million (ppm), higher than at any time in
the last 1 million years (and maybe higher than at any time in the last
25 million years). This represents an increase of 85 carbon ppm in the
55 years since David Keeling, the scientist who originated
Even more disturbing than the magnitude of this change is that over
the last few decades the rate of carbon accumulation in the
atmosphere has been steadily increasing from a linear progression
toward an exponential progression. When averaged over the last 55
years, the increase has been about 1.55 ppm of carbon per year. But
the most current data suggests that the annual increase is more than
2.75 ppm of carbon per year.
If you start tracking atmospheric carbon pollution in parts per million
since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the 1890’s, when it
was at about 270 ppm, atmospheric carbon pollution is already
progressing exponentially! This exponentially rising carbon nightmare
and the failure of the Paris Conference to set the correct overall
pledge targets for the nations of the world is very bad news for all of
In real impact terms, it means that the additional available heat energy
caused by our escalating global warming will continue to amplify
existing weather patterns. This continually increasing trapped heat
energy will continue to create and fuel a positive feedback loop,
eventually triggering one or more climate tipping points, leading once
again to greater weather extremes and greater climate destabilization.
This extreme weather and the escalating destabilization of the global
climate will increase in both unpredictable and irregular cycles of
increasing scale, frequency, and severity. If left uncorrected, our soon
to be exponentially escalating global warming will rapidly lead beyond
levels of only catastrophic climate destabilization toward irreversible or
truth to power unless we can speak it first to ourselves. It takes real
personal or organizational courage and integrity to now admit:
1 The nations making carbon and methane reduction pledges have
been given incorrect and incomplete climate data upon which to
make their inadequate and way too little way too late pledges.
The national pledges that actually need to be made to save us
are so far, far beyond the pledges that are being made. The
current pledge levels are almost a sad and twisted joke.
2 The underfunded and under-resourced IPCC approach to
processing, evaluating and providing authoritative climate data
for use by the world’s politicians and policymakers is not only
compromised but also horribly dysfunctional and severely
inadequate. It is a hidden hole inadvertently fueling our current
3 On an emergency basis we now need to begin a new climate risk
analysis with more accurate data, this time including all of the
high-impact climate tipping point risk scenarios that have not
been previously included.
4 Using that updated climate risk analysis, we also now need to
set new carbon and methane reduction targets based on this
Even though the well financed climate denier industry will attack us for
openly discussing our global warming data and other flaws, it is
absolutely necessary. Even without the problem of climate deniers, it
will take great personal and organizational courage to stop defending
the safe and comfortable climate delusions that many in the global
warming education movement have been invested in for years. Yet,
this is what every Paris attendee, group or protester must be aware of,
confront, and act on if we are going to have any real hope to get the
data right and the plan right to get global warming under control before
it's too late.
The risk of escalating global warming causing runaway climate
destabilization with all its interconnected and unthinkable
consequences is simply not being adequately appreciated by our
politicians and policymakers. If there were anything close to this same
level of exponentially rising risk that was associated with nuclear
weapons, nuclear reactors or nuclear materials, our politicians and
policymakers would take every precaution, spare no expense and do
whatever was necessary, at the highest priority and at the fastest
speed, to keep us safe from any possible nuclear meltdown and global
Unfortunately they can’t and aren’t doing that with escalating global
warming. This is because at this time they do not understand that the
escalating global warming risk is at least parallel to a nuclear danger
— if not greater!
Unfortunately, the Paris Climate Conference appears to be doomed to
go down as what might be our last failed hope to save humanity from
escalating and irreversible global warming.
For the rest of this article including the facts on how the total
carbon reduction target given to the nations of the world is grossly
false and way, way too low to ever keep us safe as well as a
discussion of other Paris Climate Conference fatal flaws dooming it to
failure, click here. (This link will take you to the full article.)
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