WHAT WILL REALLY HAPPEN AT THE PARIS CLIMATE CONFERENCE (COP21)? CUTTING THROUGH THE ILLUSIONS...

 

The December 2015 Paris Climate Conference initiated by the United

Nations Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) will be

attended by leaders of most of the nations of the world.

 It is being widely touted by scientists, environmental groups as well as

progressive global media as our last hope for saving the world from

irreversible global warming and the cataclysmic damage caused by

the greenhouse effect of carbon and methane pollution of the

atmosphere. To achieve this goal at Paris the IPCC has set the target

of keeping global warming below 2°Celsius (about 3.7 degrees F.)

The irreversible global warming threat that the Paris Climate

Conference is ultimately trying to prevent is scary. Irreversible global

warming (aka runaway climate change or runaway global warming) is

hypothesized to follow a tipping point within the climate system after

accumulated climate changes initiate a reinforcing positive feedback

loop.

This process is thought to cause the climate to rapidly change until the

climate reaches a new stable condition. Some astronomers use the

expression runaway greenhouse effect to describe the situation where

the climate deviates so irreversibly, catastrophically and permanently

from the original state that it mimics what happened on Venus when it

caused that planet to lose all of its atmosphere.

At the Paris Conference the leaders of the world will bring their

voluntary pledges for how much they're going to reduce carbon and

methane pollution to reduce global warming. Believing that the total

accumulation of all of these national carbon and methane reduction

pledges will produce all of the time-critical actions necessary to ensure

that global warming does not become irreversible is be as delusionalas believing that the emperor’s invisible new clothes were real in The Emperor’s New Clothes fable…

Here's what you can really expect to happen at and after the Paris

conference:

1 To our extreme peril the world’s politicians and policymakers will

make inadequate pledges based on the IPCC ’s climate data

underestimation figures as well as the IPCC’s incomplete risk

analysis, which failed to include high-impact climate tipping point

scenarios.

2 The world’s politicians and policymakers will likely not increase

their pledges even the additional 25% by which they are below

what is needed to meet the underestimated IPCC calculations. If

these politicians and policymakers were truly serious, and we

had the correct climate data, they would immediately meet all of

the IPCC’s current inaccurate and underestimated climate goals

with their pledges. Next, they would boost those pledges by

another 25 to 50% to compensate for the widely known IPCC

climate data underestimation problem. And finally, because

these additional critical global warming reduction pledge

increases of 25 or 50% also do not factor in any climate tipping

points, even greater national pledge levels would need to

calculated and made.

3 In place of real, verifiable and consistently enforceable Paris

pledges that radically reduce fossil fuel emissions, you will

instead see grandstanding national politicians and policymakers

playing to the media, making toothless, impotent public relations

reduction pledges, knowing that while they are making these

pledges they can never really be held accountable to any

independent verification or outside penalty enforcement if they

don't live up to their pledge levels.

4 The media will be feeding the grandstanding politicians’ and

policymakers’ toothless and impotent pledges to the public. This

will then feed the public’s false and inappropriate sense of

climate safety and security.

5 The conference attendees and protesters who understand why

the Paris Conference was doomed to fail before it began will be

filled with frustration. In some cases that frustration will pour out

onto the streets of Paris as angry protests.

6 The inadequate and toothless national pledges will not slow

escalating global warming enough to keep the world from

crossing important climate tipping points, leading to irreversible

global warming and catastrophic climate destabilization.

7 The governments of the world will have missed what many have

called its last opportunity to make the radical, painful and difficult

changes necessary to save us from this global crisis.

8 In spite of all but certain failure in Paris, there will be those

attendees, environmental groups and protesters who will try to

save face by saying that at least the Paris Climate Conference

made some progress in creating national carbon and methane

reduction pledges, even though they are non-enforceable or not

independently verifiable. Those individuals will be unwisely

continuing to support a dangerous delusion of false climate

safety and security that also has to be broken within the global

warming education community to keep us from going into

irreversible global warming.

9 Individuals, businesses and nations that ARE accurately

informed about the real facts about global warming crisis will

begin preparing their climate emergency contingency plans and

 startstocking their emergency reserves. Many of these climate-

well-informed individuals, businesses and nations will also create

migration plans to areas that are projected in computer models

to be the least damaged by escalating global warming.

10 The agents of fossil fuel industries and fossil fuel producing

nations, through “false flag” and “agent provocateur” operations,

will use and feed the natural frustration of conference attendees

and protesters to reinforce and spread the message that the

global warming movement is composed of eco-radicals and that

things are okay and safe if we just don't change our fossil fuel

policies too much.

Why we should be very worried about the Paris conference failure and

what you can do next?

Frantically sending the Titanic’s steering crew to the engine room to

help fix a leak while still on an immediate collision course with an

iceberg is not real progress. It is a wrong prioritization and delusional

alternative to the smart move of simply steering away from the

iceberg. The Paris Conference appears to be inexorably headed

toward its own kind of iceberg of structurally inadequate total pledges

to stem global warming.

Like in the fable of The Emperor’s New Clothes, few in the global

warming educational movement are willing to say Emperor IPCC’s

processes and solution projections are naked. Indirect proof that the

IPCC as emperor is quite naked is that we are still dramatically losing

the battle with global warming and our losses just keep getting worse!

Current greenhouse gas atmospheric carbon (CO2) pollution values

are more than 100 parts per million (ppm), higher than at any time in

the last 1 million years (and maybe higher than at any time in the last

25 million years). This represents an increase of 85 carbon ppm in the

55 years since David Keeling, the scientist who originated

 atmospheric carbon pollution tracking, began making carbon ppm

measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Even more disturbing than the magnitude of this change is that over

the last few decades the rate of carbon accumulation in the

atmosphere has been steadily increasing from a linear progression

toward an exponential progression. When averaged over the last 55

years, the increase has been about 1.55 ppm of carbon per year. But

the most current data suggests that the annual increase is more than

2.75 ppm of carbon per year.

If you start tracking atmospheric carbon pollution in parts per million

since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the 1890’s, when it

was at about 270 ppm, atmospheric carbon pollution is already

progressing exponentially! This exponentially rising carbon nightmare

and the failure of the Paris Conference to set the correct overall

pledge targets for the nations of the world is very bad news for all of

humanity.

In real impact terms, it means that the additional available heat energy

caused by our escalating global warming will continue to amplify

existing weather patterns. This continually increasing trapped heat

energy will continue to create and fuel a positive feedback loop,

eventually triggering one or more climate tipping points, leading once

again to greater weather extremes and greater climate destabilization.

This extreme weather and the escalating destabilization of the global

climate will increase in both unpredictable and irregular cycles of

increasing scale, frequency, and severity. If left uncorrected, our soon

to be exponentially escalating global warming will rapidly lead beyond

levels of only catastrophic climate destabilization toward irreversible or

extinction levels of climate destabilization.We will not be able to speak

truth to power unless we can speak it first to ourselves. It takes real

personal or organizational courage and integrity to now admit:

 

1 The nations making carbon and methane reduction pledges have

been given incorrect and incomplete climate data upon which to

make their inadequate and way too little way too late pledges.

The national pledges that actually need to be made to save us

are so far, far beyond the pledges that are being made. The

current pledge levels are almost a sad and twisted joke.

2 The underfunded and under-resourced IPCC approach to

processing, evaluating and providing authoritative climate data

for use by the world’s politicians and policymakers is not only

compromised but also horribly dysfunctional and severely

inadequate. It is a hidden hole inadvertently fueling our current

climate peril.

3 On an emergency basis we now need to begin a new climate risk

analysis with more accurate data, this time including all of the

high-impact climate tipping point risk scenarios that have not

been previously included.

4 Using that updated climate risk analysis, we also now need to

set new carbon and methane reduction targets based on this

new analysis.

Even though the well financed climate denier industry will attack us for

openly discussing our global warming data and other flaws, it is

absolutely necessary. Even without the problem of climate deniers, it

will take great personal and organizational courage to stop defending

the safe and comfortable climate delusions that many in the global

warming education movement have been invested in for years. Yet,

this is what every Paris attendee, group or protester must be aware of,

 confront, and act on if we are going to have any real hope to get the

data right and the plan right to get global warming under control before

it's too late.

The risk of escalating global warming causing runaway climate

destabilization with all its interconnected and unthinkable

consequences is simply not being adequately appreciated by our

politicians and policymakers. If there were anything close to this same

level of exponentially rising risk that was associated with nuclear

weapons, nuclear reactors or nuclear materials, our politicians and

policymakers would take every precaution, spare no expense and do

whatever was necessary, at the highest priority and at the fastest

speed, to keep us safe from any possible nuclear meltdown and global

catastrophe.

Unfortunately they can’t and aren’t doing that with escalating global

warming. This is because at this time they do not understand that the

escalating global warming risk is at least parallel to a nuclear danger

— if not greater!

Unfortunately, the Paris Climate Conference appears to be doomed to

go down as what might be our last failed hope to save humanity from

escalating and irreversible global warming.

For the rest of this article including the facts on how the total

carbon reduction target given to the nations of the world is grossly

false and way, way too low to ever keep us safe as well as a

discussion of other Paris Climate Conference fatal flaws dooming it to

failure, click here. (This link will take you to the full article.)

 


To receive the latest breaking news on global warming issues, click here and go to our climate blog. Look to the bottom right of the page for the climate blog Subscribe box to automatically get our RSS news feed and each new story. 
To learn what you can do that is effective to help fix global warming caused climate destabilizationclick here.
To learn why the term climate destabilization is replacing the terms climate change and global warming, click here.

Sign Up for Our Free Global Warming Blog RSS feed by clicking here. About once a week you will automatically get all the best blog stories of the week. (The blog now has thousands of articles.)

Share This Blog Post: If you would like to share this blog post, go to the original shorter version of this post and look to lower right for the large green Share button. Ask them to sign up too for the Global Warming Blog.

Click here for information on the groundbreaking and disruptive new Climageddon book. It is about the global warming emergency and what you can do to help end it!
To View Our: current positions, opinions, agreement or disagreement with this blog article or its facts, click here.

Be the first to comment

Please check your e-mail for a link to activate your account.
Sign the Petition: Declare a Global Warming State of Emergency See the new book Climageddon Donate