Introduction to The Five Fatal Flaws of the Paris Climate Conference
[The following article contains five key reasons why the December 2015 Paris Climate Conference will fail. If these Five Fatal Flaws can be overcome at the conference, humanity may yet escape crossing key climate tipping points that will cause irreversible global warming and catastrophic climate destabilization.]
The December 2015 Paris Climate Conference initiated by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) will be attended by leaders of most of the nations of the world. It is being widely touted by scientists, environmental groups as well as progressive global media as our last hope for saving the world from irreversible global warming and the cataclysmic damage caused by the greenhouse effect of carbon and methane pollution of the atmosphere. To achieve this goal at Paris the IPCC has set the target of keeping global warming below 2°Celsius (about 3.7 degrees F.)
The irreversible global warming threat that the Paris Climate Conference is ultimately trying to prevent is scary. Irreversible global warming (aka runaway climate change or runaway global warming) is hypothesized to follow a tipping point within the climate system after accumulated climate changes initiate a reinforcing positive feedback loop.
This process is thought to cause the climate to rapidly change until the climate reaches a new stable condition.Some astronomers use the expression runaway greenhouse effect to describe the situation where the climate deviates so irreversibly, catastrophically and permanently from the original state that it mimics what happened on Venus when it caused that planet to lose all of its atmosphere. (Please look up the terms climate tipping point, greenhouse effect and positive feedback loop if you're unfamiliar with them to better understand the rest of this document.)
At the Paris Conference the leaders of the world will bring their voluntary pledges for how much they're going to reduce carbon and methane pollution to reduce global warming. Believing that these national carbon and methane reduction pledges will produce all of the time-critical actions necessary to ensure that global warming does not become irreversible may be as delusional as believing that the emperor’s invisible new clothes were real in The Emperor’s New Clothes fable.
Why the Paris UN Climate Conference is doomed to fail
The five fatal flaws:
Fatal flaw 1 - In their climate reports and predictions for politicians and policymakers, the IPCC has a history of significantly underestimating how bad global warming is or could become.
Fatal flaw 2 - The IPCC has a history of failing to include essential high-impact climate prediction scenarios necessary for politicians and policymakers to properly understand ALL of the worst or unrecoverable impacts of global warming.
Fatal flaw 3 - The national carbon and methane reduction levels now being pledged for the Paris Conference are not only insufficient to counterbalance the IPCC's underestimation problem, but also when you factor in high-impact climate tipping points prediction scenarios, they are far below what is needed to save us in time from irreversible global warming.
Fatal flaw 4 - Even if the current Paris Climate Conference nations agreed to legally binding national carbon and methane reduction pledges that were based on accurate and not underestimated IPCC climate facts, and they included corrections for high-impact climate tipping points prediction scenarios within their pledges, and that resulted in nations setting their pledges at reduction levels that were the levels needed to keep us from going into irreversible global warming, these pledges would still be all but toothless public relations displays because there is no independent mechanism for verification or enforcement of these pledges!
Fatal flaw 5 - The $28 trillion-per-year fossil fuel-related industries and some fossil fuel economy-driven nations will be out in full force to nullify, reduce and/or render impotent any efforts that would destroy their fossil fuel-dependent economic viability or national security.
Like the small child in The Emperor’s New Clothes fable who pointed out that the emperor was naked—to the emperor’s dutiful subjects who were going along with the emperor’s “invisible clothes” delusion—it is now necessary to more fully expose five fatal flaws dooming the Paris Climate Conference to failure.
It is unfortunate that it may be painful to the many conference attendees and individuals in the global warming education movement, but it is essential that all delusions surrounding the Paris Climate Conference’s effectiveness or success be deconstructed as soon as possible. Only through an honest deconstruction of such delusions will there be any chance of achieving an effective reduction of escalating global warming before it becomes irreversible.
Only after we are no longer blinded by false hopes or delusions can we then begin the process of creating global warming solutions that will in fact reverse the decades of the IPCC’s inadequate progress in global warming education and reduction.
Fatal Flaw 1
In their climate reports and predictions for politicians and policymakers, the IPCC has a history of significantly underestimating how bad global warming is or could become.
Before explaining the IPCC’s climate data underestimation problem, it is first necessary to understand how the IPCC creates its climate prediction reports for the politicians and policymakers of the world. What surprises many individuals is that the IPCC itself does not do original climate science research.
Working as unpaid volunteers, thousands of scientists from around the globe sift through the most current scientific literature on global warming and the climate. After completing this review, these unpaid scientists identify trends and write a draft report and submit it to the IPCC.
Next, typically taking five to seven years to complete, the IPCC reviews the submitted climate research from these scientists. Then, in a slow and bureaucratic process, the IPCC creates comprehensive reports and assessments, including global warming prediction scenarios. Then in the near to last step, other scientists once again take the assembled draft and review and thoroughly revise it as needed.
Finally, a summary for national politicians and policymakers is written. This then condenses the science even further. This new and final summary report is then subjected to a line-by-line revision by the national representatives from more than 100 world governments — ALL of whom must approve the final summary document before it is presented to the public.
Now that you understand the process for how IPCC creates its reports, the following will not seem so surprising that…
A growing number of studies (referenced at the end of this document) claim that across two decades and thousands of pages of climate reports, the IPCC has consistently understated the rate and intensity of global warming as well as the danger that it represents.
Since the IPCC 2007 assessment, these studies have shown that the speed and ferocity at which the climate is destabilizing are at the extreme edge of, or outpacing, IPCC projections on many fronts, including temperature rise, carbon emissions, sea level rise, continental ice-sheet melt, Arctic sea ice decline, ocean acidification and thawing tundra.
An example of IPCC underestimation found in the IPCC’s last 2007 report is that it concluded the Arctic would not lose its summer ice before 2070 at the earliest. But the ice pack has shrunk far faster than any scenario IPCC scientists felt politicians and policymakers should consider.
Just a few years after that IPCC 2007 report a new study referenced at the end of this document, based on the current escalating global warming trends is now predicting that by 2016-2020 the Northwest Passage will be completely ice-free during the summers. This means that in 2007 the IPCC was 50-54 years off on a key climate prediction over a prediction period of just 63 years!
Another glaring example of this dangerous IPCC underestimation problem surfaced a few months ago from James Hansen, the former NASA scientist who originally warned the world about global warming nearly 30 years ago. Hansen's new study says sea levels could rise by as much as 10 feet by 2050. The IPCC has repeatedly and consistently predicted that sea levels could rise about 3 feet by 2100. The IPCC’s global warming predictions are believed to underestimate the global warming timetables and their consequences by anywhere from 25 to 50%. (For more info on underestimation see end of document.)
What the IPCC’s global warming underestimation problem means to you, your business or your nation’s future
Underestimation by the IPCC is particularly worrisome, first because the organization is treated as the recognized authority on global warming and is charged with advising national politicians and policymakers on the most relevant and accurate climate science so they can make laws and policies to keep us all safe.
Next, the IPCC’s overly conservative reading and underestimation problems with the climate science means that national governments, businesses and the public will all be blindsided by the rapid onset of the higher flooding, extreme storms, drought, and other climate impacts associated with global warming beyond what they are currently being prepared for. Worse yet, a society blind to the full range of potential climate outcomes, particularly the most disruptive, can remain unconscious of or apathetic to the situation, causing them to push the hard but necessary climate carbon and methane reduction decisions farther and farther off into the future. Probably the greatest loss caused by IPCC’s underestimation problem is that it quells, if not removes, the appropriate sense of urgency essential to motivating the world to deal with global warming’s escalating present and future threat.
What if the level of droughts, storms, flooding, wildfires, heat waves, ocean acidification, melting tundra, loss of animal biodiversity, spread of disease, desertification, diminished food and water supplies, air pollution, carbon and methane pollution-caused respiratory suffering and death, destruction of ecosystems, escalating economic costs, conflicts and wars and human migration that were predicted by the IPCC’s climate data to start arriving in 2060-2080 started arriving at an increasing scale, severity and frequency beginning in 2020-2040?
One of the biggest reasons for the IPCC’s underestimation problem
Because the IPCC's final summary report is subjected to a line-by-line revision by representatives from more than 100 world governments, all of whom must approve the final summary document before it is presented to the public, and because those 100 countries also fund the UN to greater or lesser degrees of influence, it is only reasonable to consider that inherent national conflicts of interest also act to water down, delay or stop those sections of each climate report that directly and significantly impact the overall military security, economics or well-being of the sign-off nation.
For example, countries like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, the United States, China, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran have huge portions of their annual gross domestic product (GDP) dependent upon producing and/or exporting fossil fuels. If there were a sudden and significant mandated reduction in availability or use of global fossil fuel (oil, coal, etc.), some of the countries, particularly the ones with large national debts or without large financial reserves like Russia, Venezuela, the United States, Iraq and Iran, could plunge into rapid economic decline and in some cases possibly even social and political unrest.
Because of this significant underestimation problem with the IPCC’s climate data upon which the Paris master target was set, the Paris Conference will fail.
Fatal Flaw 2
The IPCC has a history of failing to include essential high-impact climate prediction scenarios necessary for politicians and policymakers to properly understand ALL of the worst or unrecoverable impacts of global warming
There is principle in logic that: If all or a significant part of the foundational premise upon which you build a theory or solution is insufficient or false, the consequent theory or solution created will also be insufficient or false either in total or to a significant degree. Keep this principle of logic in mind as you continue reading.
There is a gargantuan flaw in the premise upon which the IPCC built its climate risk analysis and prediction scenarios for average global temperature increases and climate consequences. To many this second fatal flaw is the one that could quickly lead us to a real doomsday scenario.
To provide evidence for what essential high-impact climate data is missing from the IPCC’s global warming risk analysis process and consequence prediction scenarios, it is first necessary to review the four current global warming prediction scenarios provided in 2014 by the IPCC to the world’s politicians and policymakers. Those four global warming prediction scenarios are:
Scenario One: Global warming is, at the most optimistic of projections, only a 2-degree Celsius increase by 2100 (about 3.7+ degrees Fahrenheit). (This prediction is based on the assumption that we have no climate system surprises such as going over any significant climate tipping points.)
Scenario Two: Global warming is, at a more likely projection, a 3-degree Celsius increase by 2100 (5-6+ degrees Fahrenheit). (This prediction is also based on the assumption that we have no significant climate system surprises such as going over any significant climate tipping points.)
Scenario Three: Global warming is, at the less optimistic of IPCC projections, only a 4-degree Celsius increase by 2100 (7-8+ degrees Fahrenheit). (This prediction is less optimistic, but it is also still based on the assumption that we do not have significant climate system surprises such as going over any significant climate tipping points.)
Scenario Four: Global warming is, at the least optimistic of IPCC projections, a 6 or more degree Celsius increase by 2100 (8-12+ degrees Fahrenheit). (This prediction is the least optimistic, but it too is also based on the assumption that we do not have significant climate system surprises such as going over any significant climate tipping points.
From each of the four IPCC prediction scenarios above, it becomes obvious what is missing and what has been unwisely discounted in the IPCC’s risk analysis and prediction scenarios. The IPCC’s global warming prediction scenarios are always prediction scenarios where the climate will never go over any significant climate tipping points in any of its major or minor systems or subsystems.
In effect, what the IPCC has done is to remove or ignore high-impact, often unrecoverable climate tipping point variables that should have been included in a proper risk spectrum analysis. Without critical high-impact consequence prediction scenarios considered in the master risk analysis, it means that the IPCC has not met the minimum essential data inclusion thresholds necessary to create a valid climate risk analysis and to properly inform our politicians and policymakers.
Why the IPCC’s climate tipping point omission is critical to the future of every individual, business and nation on earth
To answer the above question it is necessary to understand what the key climate tipping points are and how tipping points function. The key climate tipping points are
1) The total amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Water vapor in the atmosphere increases with more heat evaporating more water from oceans, lakes and rivers. This repeating heat and evaporation process then creates more water vapor and then more heat in an endless, heat-increasing positive feedback loop. At some point, the heat increasing positive feedback loop triggers a tipping point and the process goes from a linear progression into an exponential progression. (See the next subheadding area below for an explanation of linear and exponential progressions.)
2) The melting loss of white polar and glacial ice that reflects much earth-heating solar heat back into space in what is called the Albedo effect. At some point in the Albedo effect process, a positive feedback loop triggers a tipping point and the process goes from a linear progression into an exponential progression
3) The releases of methane from the warming and decaying of the permafrost and tundra near the polar areas. At some point in the increasing methane release process, a positive feedback loop triggers a tipping point and the process goes from a linear progression into an exponential progression. (Methane produces about 25 times the greenhouse heat-holding effect in the atmosphere that carbon does for anywhere from three years to decades before it decays back into simple carbon again).
4) The die-offs of the carbon-eating and oxygen-producing sea plankton because of the growing warming, carbonization and acidification of the oceans. At some point in the rising die-offs of the carbon-eating and oxygen-producing sea plankton, a positive feedback loop triggers a tipping point and the process goes from a linear progression into an exponential progression.
5) The loss of the atmospheric carbon-eating forests because of heat, drought, and wildfires. At some point in the increasing loss of the atmospheric carbon-eating forests, a positive feedback loop triggers a tipping point and the process goes from a linear progression into an exponential progression.
6) Because of the escalating temperature, the soils that normally absorb carbon begin releasing it back into the atmosphere from their previously stored or inherent carbon. At some point in the increasing release of carbon by the soils, a positive feedback loop triggers a tipping point and the process goes from a linear progression into an exponential progression.
7) The ever-increasing atmospheric heat now being captured by the oceans and being sent to lower levels of the ocean will eventually reach a tipping point at some date in future. These masses of deep warm water can suddenly rise to the surface again, releasing their heat to the atmosphere to radically increase global temperature in an exponential progression.
8) The global warming effect on major ocean currents that help to stabilize our weather and seasons. Research is now being conducted on how this factor might affect things like the critical North Atlantic current. If the North Atlantic current were slowed down or diverted from its presently established pathway, it would create very significant changes in weather patterns, which would affect growing seasons, rain, snowfall, and temperature—all of which have strong effects on crop yields.
9) The global warming-caused pandemic potential. When ice, glaciers, permafrost or frozen tundra that is tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of years old melts, the melting releases bacteria and viruses that are still alive and that have never been seen by the human species in its total history. This means as global warming continues to escalate, we could be unleashing the ultimate global pandemic. We also could be releasing so many different types of bacteria and viruses at one time that even our best scientists could not keep up with creating and distributing the new vaccines needed in sufficient global quantities in time to contain the new disease outbreaks or a growing global pandemic.
10) At a specific level of rising ocean temperature, it will thaw and release the gigatons of frozen methane hydrate crystals trapped along the continental shelves of our oceans. A sudden and dramatic release of carbon into the atmosphere from methane hydrate crystals has been predicted to be what could become the last great planetary extinction event that will leave either no one left or as few as 200 million of us left living close to the poles. Scientists have theorized this massive methane release has occurred once before millions of years ago and was the most probable cause of one of the five previous great mass extinction events of our planetary history. It was called the PETM extinction event.
11) The total weight of all melting ice and rising seas as a wildcard tipping point. Although research is sparse in this area it has been suggested that, as massive amounts of ice melt off areas where the ice is sitting on land masses and sea level rises, the unweighting and weighting of land masses and the oceans and their respective tectonic plates can potentially cause significant shifts and movement in the tectonic plates of the planet. This could cause earthquakes and volcanic eruptions at a scale that we have not seen on the planet for ages. If the shifting of these tectonic plates causes numerous or massive volcanic eruptions around the planet, we could go into a sudden but temporary volcanic winter. If the shifting of tectonic plates triggers a super volcano-like eruption, the years that the sun would be blocked could kill off most of the human population.
Other critical factors vital to know about the dangers of crossing climate tipping points:
a) Climate tipping points can cause sudden and unpredictable severe changes or complete system collapses. Once a tipping point is crossed, what was previously progressing in a steady and linear way (1, 2. 3 ,4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) now often starts progressing exponentially (2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024.)
Notably, one of the hardest things for individuals to do is visualize in real-life scenarios the difference between a linear and an exponential progression. Using the example above, in just the 10 linear steps the last linear progression number of 10 is about 100 times less than the last and 10th step in the exponential progression.
(To help you better visualize what exponentially means in a sudden rise of average global temperature when we cross a tipping point and temperature increase goes exponential, it is highly recommended to view this YouTube video on the nature of exponential progressions. It has been watched 5 million times. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY)
b) Climate tipping points can have inherent momentum and/or inertia factors within their processes that help them to cause either a time accelerator in going over a tipping point or a time delay in preventing going over a tipping point. For example, the momentum or inertia factors in climate tipping points of heat capture within the oceans derive from the increasing temperature in the atmosphere being taken up by the oceans. Oceans both take up and release atmospheric heat very slowly, and there is a time lag with both momentum or inertia.
This means that any changes we make now to reduce atmospheric carbon pollution may not have any significant effect because of the inherent momentum or inertia previously developed in one or more of the various climate tipping point system or subsystem areas. Most unfortunately, this also means that because of the inherent pre-existing momentum within one or more of the climate tipping points, we may have already crossed one or more of the most serious climate tipping points, but we do not even know it yet.
c) As average global temperature continues to rise, we will eventually cross one or more of the above tipping points, and we could even cross all of these tipping points.
d) Even if the inherent current momentum is not strong enough for any climate condition or process to cross one or more of the climate tipping points, if we keep using the IPCC’s inadequate climate data and continue the ever-increasing fossil fuel carbon and methane pollution of our atmosphere, we are eventually going to cross critical climate tipping points that have not been included in the 2014 IPCC’s average global temperature prediction scenarios.
e) Crossing any one of the previously listed tipping points may by itself be capable of throwing the planet into irreversible or even extinction-level global warming and consequent climate destabilization.
f) Climate tipping points within the global climate system or within its subsystems can also unpredictably whipsaw back-and-forth onto each other or back and forth within the master climate system or its subsystems to create new positive feedback loops and a multiplier effect. This can cause the interconnected bad climate consequences between the climate and its subsystems to keep getting worse, often in exponential progressions. Crossed tipping points whipsawing back and forth into other climate subsystems and multiplying each other’s negative effects also helps create the “perfect storm of the perfect storms.” This perfect storm of perfect storms will eventually and assuredly destabilize the global economy. As the global economy destabilizes, it will then destabilize the global political landscape of functioning nations. As the climate, the global economy and the political landscape of functioning nations destabilize, it will soon destabilize all of the normal social aspects of our individual lives, businesses, and organizations.
This perfect storm of perfect storms will also expand to amplify, whipsaw and multiply almost all of our other current global challenges such as overpopulation, poverty, national and regional conflicts and existing economic instabilities, etc., onto each other in another positive feedback loop. This then not only magnifies our other global challenges, but it also makes them individually and collectively much harder if not nearly impossible to resolve in a constantly deteriorating environment.
Finally, in a perfect storm of perfect storms environmental collapse, failing economies and failing nations all will collectively whipsaw off of each other causing all kinds of completely unexpected and unpredictable negative consequences due to the unseen interconnections and interdependencies of today's complex globalized societies. This perfect storm of perfect storms consisting of escalating global warming colliding with our current global challenges and crossed global warming tipping points has the potential to wreak a whipsawing and continually escalating havoc upon humanity at a level that has never been seen before in human history.
(Please note that the processes of many climate tipping points have been defined. Quite a few climate tipping points have time or process step ranges projected for them, but much more climate tipping point research is yet to be done.)
The IPCC’s fatal omission of not providing the full spectrum of essential high-impact climate prediction scenarios (what will happen if we cross any significant climate tipping points) is a deadly disservice to both those who are doing the climate risk analysis and predictions as well as those politicians and policymakers who are using the IPCC’s improper risk analysis-based prediction scenarios to prevent or plan for the full spectrum of global warming consequences for their respective nations.
It is unfortunate that the IPCC’s 2014 four prediction consequence scenarios hold true ONLY as long as everything goes perfectly and there are no significant crossed climate tipping points.
This means that the most current authoritative data on global warming and its consequences being given to our politicians and policymakers by the IPCC without these tipping point prediction scenarios is so incomplete that it does not rise to a high enough level to meet the essential data inclusion threshold for the minimal data required to do a proper and accurate climate risk assessment.
Risk analysis experts know that in assembling any proper risk analysis, it is the missing of essential data from the analysis that is the beginning of the death spiral for that analysis. To make the IPCC’s climate risk analysis problem worse, omitted essential data is usually one of the hardest things to find or envision at some later date by parties not privileged to assembling the original risk analysis.
There is also another hidden danger here. When you create an improper or inaccurate risk analysis, our politicians and policymakers will find themselves unconsciously and “sincerely” choosing wrong courses of remedial global warming action, just as our politicians and policymakers are currently doing whenever they use the 2014 global warming prediction scenarios of the IPCC. From this improper and inaccurate risk analysis our politicians and policymakers will also find themselves blindly following a “brilliantly planned” wrong course of action until it is either too late to fix, or it is too late to avoid devastating climate catastrophe.
But where did this information about the high-impact climate tipping points, which can so radically and immediately change a whole global warming climate prediction scenario, go? In the IPCC’s 400+-page report of 2014, the game-ending climate tipping points are not even called what they are.
They are called “low-probability, high-consequence events” or “fat tails,” and they are buried in footnotes. To their credit, in the 2014 report the IPCC did mention in footnotes that the research data used in the creation of the four global warming prediction scenarios listed previously does not include these “fat tail” events.
From the IPCC footnotes alone, even if a politician or policymaker reviewing the 2014 IPCC climate report knew that those fat tail, low-probability, high-consequence terms were supposed to specifically describe unstated catastrophic and potentially unrecoverable or species-ending climate tipping points, it would be very difficult if not impossible for these politicians and policymakers to visualize in any tangible way these exponentially increasing temperature and climate consequence scenarios, including crossing one or more of the climate tipping points.
With this hidden tipping point knowledge disability, how could our politicians and policymakers properly set out the policies and actions that will protect us from the high-impact threat scenarios without they themselves being able to see essential high-impact climate tipping point prediction scenarios in a way that would give clear meaning and appropriate impact for those factors within their overall climate data evaluations?
"Climate tipping points are so dangerous because if you pass them, the climate is out of humanity's control. If an ice sheet disintegrates and starts to slide into the ocean, there's nothing we can do about that." — James Hansen
Without climate tipping point information, our politicians and policymakers will vigorously continue to select and defend current global warming management strategies that are either ineffective, out of sequence, or too little too late. This fatal flaw also creates a counterproductive false sense of global warming security and safety based on underestimated and inadequate climate data. It not only poses a problem for our politicians and policymakers being able to do their jobs, but it also creates a nightmare for the general public.
The IPCC’s lack of providing all essential minimal prediction scenarios that include one, several, or all of the various high-impact climate tipping points also creates a debilitating illusion of unjustifiable safety or security in the public. This false illusion of safety and security (as with the politicians and policymakers) robs the public of the necessary and appropriate sense of fear, urgency and will that would generate vigorous demand from the public to fix the escalating global warming before it's too late.
This fatal flaw of the IPCC excluding climate tipping point data from their prediction scenarios is so pivotal that it also should be seen as a major contributor to the last 30 years of insufficient global warming remedial action and a key reason why the Paris Climate Conference will fail.
Fatal Flaw 3
The national carbon and methane reduction levels now being pledged for the Paris Conference are not only insufficient to counterbalance the IPCC's underestimation problem, but also when you factor in missing high-impact climate tipping points prediction scenarios, they are far below what is needed to save us in time from irreversible global warming.
After the failure of previous UN negotiations in Copenhagen in 2009, rather than trying to agree once again on mandatory emissions reductions, the nations of the world were asked to publicly pledge by October 1, 2015 what they were willing to do to reduce global warming. The desperate hope was that global peer pressure might produce better results in Paris than did weeks of all-night sessions, earnest appeals by delegates, and scientific presentations in many past conferences.
Here is how this new strategy is working so far. Based on the national plans and targets that governments have presented to date, the carbon and methane reduction numbers just aren’t adding up. The current Paris pledges won’t keep planetary warming under a 2-degree Celsius goal. They are currently about 25% short.
The current Paris national pledge totals would result in a global warming increase of about 2.7˚C.That sounds close to the goal, but climate scientists are very worried that if we allow warming to increase by just 2-3 degrees Celsius, we significantly increase the risk of crossing one or more climate tipping points, driving us farther down the path to irreversible global warming. Worse yet, the current national pledge targets for Paris are based on IPCC global warming figures and prediction scenarios that have significant underestimation problems.
This means that the current national pledges for Paris (which are about 25% below the underestimated IPCC targets) are still about 25 to 50% less than what is needed. Even if that were the only problem with the IPCC’s prediction scenarios, when you add in the other major problem that these current national pledges also do not include crossed tipping points prediction scenarios, they are all but irrelevant if we are serious about fixing global warming before it's too late.
The grossly inadequate, “too little too late” level of voluntary national pledges and pledge totals are another powerful reason why the Paris Climate Conference will fail.
(See the most current national climate pledge levels as of 11/2/15)
Fatal Flaw 4
Even if the current Paris Climate Conference nations agreed to legally binding national carbon and methane reduction pledges that were based on accurate and not underestimated IPCC climate facts, and they included corrections for high-impact climate tipping points prediction scenarios within their pledges, and that resulted in the nations setting their pledges at reduction levels that were the levels needed to actually keep us from going into irreversible global warming, these pledges would still be all but toothless public relations displays because there is no independent mechanism for verification or enforcement of these pledges!
The reasoning behind the importance of having verifiable and enforceable pledges is that:
- We are almost out of time! We are already probably at or very near climate tipping points that can lead us to irreversible global warming. ONLY on-target, adequate, verifiable and enforceable Paris pledges enacted immediately and enforced uniformly have any hope of orchestrating and executing all of the global energy generation and energy distribution system changes needed in time.
Only verifiable and enforceable Paris pledges can serve as critical compliance-inducing structures and tools required to deal with the both the inertia and counterforce generated by the general public’s ignorance of complex global warming issues and the counter forces generated by the fossil fuel industry and some nations toward the difficult needed changes ahead of us.
- Even if we could educate the general population on the complexities of global warming, it is estimated it will take decades to develop an informed general population majority around the world. Additionally, there are also well-funded misinformation programs sponsored by fossil fuel energy interests that have paralyzed and confused much of the uninformed or minimally interested general public. Verifiable and enforceable Paris pledges drafted by politicians informed by a new, accurate and complete climate risk assessment, as well as climate specialists who can understand the complex science, is the only thing that will overcome this general population "education lag" and the natural resistance to the necessary radical, painful and costly coming changes in time to fix global warming.
It is way too late in the escalating global warming process to place ill-conceived hope on slow-starting voluntary global warming reduction pledges or other non-verifiable or non-enforceable agreements. They haven't worked for decades, and they certainly won't work during this escalating global warming climate emergency.
Unfortunately, there is no other way to achieve both the necessary short-term and long-term global warming reduction goals other than to have verifiable and enforceable Paris pledges to mobilize us ALL quickly enough to combat both general ignorance as well as our self- or national group-interested motivations. The Paris pledges without the teeth of verification and enforcement punishments for those who break their pledges simply won't work.
Many nations will secretly cheat to maintain economic advantages. Those nations that follow their Paris pledges will then be economically disadvantaged by those that don't. Sooner or later the nations that are following their voluntary Paris pledges will get tired of being economically punished for doing so while Paris pledge cheaters profit.
Without independent pledge verification and enforcement penalties, the Paris Climate Conference will fail.
Fatal Flaw 5
The $28 trillion-per-year fossil fuel-related industries and some fossil fuel economy-driven nations will be out in full force to nullify, reduce, and/ or render impotent any efforts that would destroy their fossil fuel-dependent economic viability or national security.
About one-third of the world’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) is involved in fossil fuel energy production and in fossil fuel-related companies. Today’s combined influence and power of this fossil fuel juggernaut over the governments of the world is unprecedented in human history.
Today whether you live in a communist, capitalist or socialist nation, in one way or another money and profit talk. Powerful multinational corporations and the world's wealthiest people will strongly determine political and economic directions.
In this era of fossil fuel interest-dominated lobbying, successful new political movements driven from the bottom have little chance. Optimistic individuals believing they are going to successfully dictate change and a dramatic reduction in size to the world’s fossil fuel-related industries and nations may be hanging on, in lingering fantasy, to effective mass movements and eras gone by.
The IPCC’s currently underestimated target will of itself require a deep reduction in fossil fuel use over the next several decades. This deep reduction in fossil fuel use will become an economic and security nightmare for some fossil fuel-producing nations and corporations, and those nations or corporations will do everything within their political power or financial influence to ensure the Paris Conference ends in some kind of defused failure of either greatly watered-down pledges or a completely failed conference with no verifiable or enforceable pledges.
At the Paris Climate Conference you can rely upon the fossil fuel industry’s carbon reduction counteractions to be well-financed and well-organized. Those counteractions will also be executed effectively using the best professionals that money can buy.
Those there for the Paris Conference will encounter numerous invisible fossil fuel industry-sponsored programs to nullify the Paris Conference goals, using both covert intelligence agency type strategies and countering and bombarding media narratives about how overblown the global warming issue is. Don't be surprised to see covert intelligence agency type “agent provocateurs” or “false flag" operations or anything else that the fossil fuel-related industries and interests can do to create a situation where the world views those attendees and protesters at the Paris Conference as eco-terrorists, eco-radicals or misguided climate fanatics and zealots.
Fossil fuel-related vested interests are interested only in keeping things exactly as they are as they continue extracting and distributing as much fossil fuel for as long as they can. They will do this while doing their best to make the world believe everything is okay, global warming is not really a problem, and that nothing drastic needs to be done to reduce global warming or fossil fuel use.
Because fossil fuel-related interests representing one-third of the world's economic and political power will be doing everything within their overt and covert capabilities to sabotage the Paris Conference, Paris will fail.
(Read a recent example of how the fossil fuel industry and global warming denial)
What WILL happen at a failed Paris Conference?
To our extreme peril the world’s politicians and policymakers will make inadequate pledges based on the IPCC ’s climate data underestimation figures as well as the IPCC’s incomplete risk analysis, which failed to include high-impact climate tipping point scenarios.
The world’s politicians and policymakers will likely not increase their pledges even the additional 25% by which they are below what is needed to meet the underestimated IPCC calculations. If these politicians and policymakers were truly serious, and we had the correct climate data, they would immediately meet all of the IPCC’s current inaccurate and underestimated climate goals with their pledges. Next, they would boost those pledges by another 25 to 50% to compensate for the widely known IPCC climate data underestimation problem. And finally, because these additional critical global warming reduction pledge increases of 25 or 50% also do not factor in any climate tipping points, even greater national pledge levels would need to calculated and made.
In place of real, verifiable and consistently enforceable Paris pledges that radically reduce fossil fuel emissions, you will instead see grandstanding national politicians and policymakers playing to the media, making toothless, impotent public relations reduction pledges, knowing that while they are making these pledges they can never really be held accountable to any independent verification or outside penalty enforcement if they don't live up to their pledge levels.
The media will be feeding the grandstanding politicians’ and policymakers’ toothless and impotent pledges to the public. This will then feed the public’s false and inappropriate sense of climate safety and security.
The conference attendees and protesters who understand why the Paris Conference was doomed to fail before it began will be filled with frustration. In some cases that frustration will pour out onto the streets of Paris as angry protests.
The agents of fossil fuel industries, through “false flag” and “agent provocateur” operations, will use and feed the natural frustration of conference attendees and protesters to reinforce and spread the message that the global warming movement is composed of eco-terrorists and eco-radicals and that things are okay and safe if we just don't change our fossil fuel policies too much.
The inadequate and toothless national pledges will not slow escalating global warming enough to keep the world from crossing important climate tipping points, leading to irreversible global warming and catastrophic climate destabilization.
The governments of the world will have missed what many have called its last opportunity to make the radical, painful and difficult changes necessary to save us from this global crisis.
In spite of all but certain failure in Paris, there will be those attendees, environmental groups and protesters who will try to save face by saying that at least the Paris Climate Conference made some progress in creating national carbon and methane reduction pledges, even though they are non-enforceable or not independently verifiable. Those individuals will be unwisely continuing to support a dangerous delusion of false climate safety and security that also has to be broken within the global warming education community to keep us from going into irreversible global warming.
Individuals, businesses and nations that ARE accurately informed about the real facts about global warming crisis will begin preparing their climate emergency contingency plans and start stocking their emergency reserves. Many of these climate-well-informed individuals, businesses and nations will also create migration plans to areas that are projected in computer models to be the least damaged by escalating global warming.
Why we should be very worried about the Paris conference failure and what you can do next?
Frantically sending the Titanic’s steering crew to the engine room to help fix a leak while still on an immediate collision course with an iceberg is not real progress. It is a wrong prioritization and delusionary alternative to the smart move of simply steering away from the iceberg. The Paris Conference appears to be inexorably headed toward its own kind of iceberg of structurally inadequate pledges to stem global warming.
Like in the fable of The Emperor’s New Clothes, few in the global warming educational movement are willing to say Emperor IPCC’s processes and solution projections are naked. Indirect proof that the IPCC as emperor is quite naked is that we are still dramatically losing the battle with global warming and our losses just keep getting worse!
Current greenhouse gas atmospheric carbon (CO2) pollution values are more than 100 parts per million (ppm), higher than at any time in the last 1 million years (and maybe higher than at any time in the last 25 million years). This represents an increase of 85 carbon ppm in the 55 years since David Keeling, the scientist who originated atmospheric carbon pollution tracking, began making carbon ppm measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
Even more disturbing than the magnitude of this change is that over the last few decades the rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere has been steadily increasing from a linear progression toward an exponential progression. When averaged over the last 55 years, the increase has been about 1.55 ppm of carbon per year. But the most current data suggests that the annual increase is more than 2.75 ppm of carbon per year.
If you start tracking atmospheric carbon pollution in parts per million since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the 1890’s, when it was at about 270 ppm, atmospheric carbon pollution is already progressing exponentially! This exponentially rising carbon nightmare and the coming failure of the Paris Conference to set the correct overall pledge targets for the nations of the world is very bad news for all of humanity.
In real impact terms, it means that the additional available heat energy caused by our escalating global warming will continue to amplify existing weather patterns. This continually increasing trapped heat energy will continue to create and fuel a positive feedback loop, eventually triggering one or more climate tipping points, leading once again to greater weather extremes and greater climate destabilization.
This extreme weather and the escalating destabilization of the global climate will increase in both unpredictable and irregular cycles of increasing scale, frequency, and severity. If left uncorrected, our soon to be exponentially escalating global warming will rapidly lead beyond levels of only catastrophic climate destabilization toward irreversible or extinction levels of climate destabilization.
For all of the reasons mentioned previously in this document, the 2015 Paris Climate Conference will be hopelessly impotent and doomed to fail.
We will not be able to speak truth to power unless we can speak it first to ourselves. It takes real personal or organizational courage and integrity to now admit:
- The nations making carbon and methane reduction pledges have been given incorrect and incomplete climate data upon which to make their inadequate and way too little way too late pledges. The national pledges that actually need to be made to save us are so far, far beyond the pledges that are being made. The current pledge levels are almost a sad and twisted joke.
The underfunded and under-resourced IPCC approach to processing, evaluating and providing authoritative climate data for use by the world’s politicians and policymakers is not only compromised but also horribly dysfunctional and severely inadequate. It is a hidden hole inadvertently fueling our current climate peril.
- On an emergency basis we now need to begin a new climate risk analysis with more accurate data, this time including all of the high-impact climate tipping point risk scenarios that have not been previously included.
Using that updated climate risk analysis, we also now need to set new carbon and methane reduction targets based on this new analysis.
Even though the well financed climate denier industry will attack us for openly discussing our global warming data and other flaws, it is absolutely necessary. Even without the problem of climate deniers, it will take great personal and organizational courage to stop defending the safe and comfortable climate delusions that many in the global warming education movement have been invested in for years. Yet, this is what every Paris attendee, group or protester must be aware of, confront, and act on if we are going to have any real hope to get the data right and the plan right to get global warming under control before it's too late.
The risk of escalating global warming causing runaway climate destabilization with all its interconnected and unthinkable consequences is simply not being adequately appreciated by our politicians and policymakers. If there were anything close to this same level of exponentially rising risk that was associated with nuclear weapons, nuclear reactors or nuclear materials, our politicians and policymakers would take every precaution, spare no expense and do whatever was necessary, at the highest priority and at the fastest speed, to keep us safe from any possible nuclear meltdown and global catastrophe.
Unfortunately they can’t and aren’t doing that with escalating global warming. This is because at this time due to fatal flaws 1 and 2 they do not understand that the escalating global warming risk is at least parallel to a nuclear danger — if not greater!
Unfortunately, the Paris Climate Conference appears to be doomed to go down as our last failed hope to save humanity from escalating and irreversible global warming.
By Lawrence Wollersheim for Job One for Humanity
What you can do!
Before the 100-nation Paris Conference begins on Nov 30th, we urgently need a worldwide open dialog on the fatal flaws of the Paris Climate Conference in order to have any honest hope of an effective result. Please help our nonprofit organization facilitate this critical global open dialog by quickly emailing or posting this document around the world to the following individuals and organizations:
anyone you have connections to who has relevant political authority or is connected to someone who has such authority
any individual or organization attending the Paris Climate Conference
any environmental or global warming organizations
any environmental or global warming writers and blogs
any global media covering the Paris Climate Conference
your friends Interested in the global warming issue
- Feel free to translate this document into any other language to assist in its distribution. If you reprint or excerpt all or part of it, we ask that you link it to the original document at this location: http://www.joboneforhumanity.org/why_the_paris_un_climate_conference_is_doomed_to_fail and give credit to the nonprofit organization that created it, JobOneforHumanity.org
For those of you who recognize the escalating global warming crisis is far worse than is widely being discussed and who want to explore the remedial possibilities further based on these and other important new ideas, we invite you to come to the Job One for Humanity website. There you can preview the Job One for Humanity Climate Restabilization Plan and help take action. You can also sign up for the new Climageddon book release, which goes beyond this document in discussing the current global warming problems and possibilities.
If you would like to send comments to the originators of this document, email to firstname.lastname@example.org
For more about the IPCC’s history of climate data underestimation, please see the following:
Note: If you want to see more reasons why the Paris UN Conference is doomed in addition to the five fatal flaws listed in this document click here.