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Keith Hepner commented on NORTH POLE TEMPERATURES CLIMB NEAR MELTING POINT THIS CHRISTMAS WEEK... 2016-12-29 00:16:41 -0800just a matter of time
Sign the Petition to Declare a Global Warming State of Emergency and Help Prevent a Mass Human, Animal and Ecological Extinction Process within Our Lifetimes
We, the citizens of our nation and of our Earth, are endowed with certain rights, powers, and obligations, which demand we act to preserve and protect the future of humanity as well as Earth's other animal and biological life.
Based on abundant scientific evidence, we recognize that our global climate is rapidly warming and becoming increasingly unstable due to human-caused atmospheric carbon pollution primarily at this time from the burning of fossil fuels.
We also recognize that in spite of 35 years of credible scientific warnings, global warming is still rising and is now at dangerous levels!
We have already seen global warming-aggravated weather, like record-breaking floods, hurricanes, and wildfires. We have witnessed the "worst in centuries" droughts and dust storms. We have experienced alternating unseasonably cold then warm winters, extreme storms, bomb cyclones, and rain bombs where weeks or months' worth of rain falls in a few hours or a few days.
With our own eyes, we see that something very abnormal is happening to the previous stability of our normal weather and seasonal patterns. We have also noticed that global warming connected consequences (like those just mentioned,) are becoming more frequent, more severe, and are affecting larger and larger areas!
We recognize that if we do not immediately and radically reduce our global fossil fuel burning behaviors before additional global warming tipping points are crossed, the destabilization of our global climate will continue at even faster rates causing among other things, unprecedented crop failures and unthinkable mass starvation.
Our brightest climate scientists have determined that if we do not meet or come very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets (found here,) we will face a massive extinction event where as much as 70-90% of humanity will die in as little as the next 30-50 years. Unsurprisingly, escalating global warming will not only affect humanity's survival possibilities. It also presents an equally grave and ever-increasing extinction threat to animals and other biological species as well.
Rising global warming has already become the 21st century's single greatest disruptor of economic, political, social, and biological stability. It will also act to amplify our other largest global problems.
No one is ultimately safe from this global warming extinction emergency. Global warming consequences are already affecting millions in many areas of the world. Many individuals and businesses are already being forced to deal with escalating catastrophes, food and resource depletion, and the mass migration of desperate climagees (climate migrants.) In the not too distant future, global warming catastrophes will be affecting hundreds of millions then billions of individuals everywhere on Earth!
We now face a world in which rising global warming can cause mass human extinction and create increasing social, economic, and political chaos, not sometime near 2100, but as soon as the next 3-5 decades.
Worse yet, as our average global temperatures continue to rise, the world's other major and critical social, economic and political challenges (see * list below) will also worsen, amplify each other and cross-react with each other and the 11 critical global warming tipping points (found here.)
Our largest global challenges (other than the global warming consequences and immediate global nuclear war or nuclear or biological terrorism) that will both interact with each other and likely continue to worsen as global warming gets worse are:
1. global economic instabilities are leading to reoccurring national and global recessions or depressions. (These are fueled by existing economic weaknesses, lack of financial reserves and resilience, and unexpected major unexpected shocks or events (like COVID-19,) hitting the global markets and financial systems.
2. an ever-rising over-population (Earth has the carrying capacity for about 1 1/2 - 2 billion people. (Please click this carrying capacity link to understand why this overpopulation challenge is so big and bad.) Currently, we are near 8 billion people adding about 130 million additional people each year racing to 9.4 billion by or before 2050.
Over the next 30 years, our population is projected to rise as high as 10-13 billion. One could also ultimately say that overpopulation and its inherent over-consumption beyond our carrying capacity is the major cause behind today's global warming emergency and most of the world's other critical global challenges.
3. rising global resource depletion; caused by overpopulation, toxic pollution of water, lands, and air, crop failures, overfishing, topsoil loss, resource distribution injustice, and the massive overconsumption and waste of finite resources. Global resource depletion will significantly increase food shortages and soaring food prices leading to more starvation and mass migrations. If you do not believe that massive resource depletion and overshoot is a huge soon-arriving problem? Watch this fantastic overshoot video with great graphics and global resource depletion amounts and time frames in simple illustrations by Hugh Montgomery, a noted English professor. (We strongly recommend you watch this video for all of the food and non-food resources that are in accelerating depletion peril. [Forward the video to the 10 minutes and 30-second mark to begin watching Hugh Montgomery's compelling graphic presentation.])
4. escalating pollution of all kinds; ongoing and accelerating pollution kills crops, fish stocks, and poisons our air creating and accelerating all types of global health, social, and economic problems.
5. loss of biodiversity, (due to ongoing and accelerating loss of natural habitat due to overpopulation, global warming, pollution, etc.)
6. growing economic inequality, injustice, and poverty. (This also will significantly increase food shortages and soaring food prices leading to more starvation and migrations. Today less than 1% of the world's population owns more than 50% of all wealth. Over for the last several decades, this ownership percentage continues to grow continually in favor of the wealthy.)
7. escalating regional and international terrorism, conflicts, and war. These conflicts are caused by global warming, and most of the other global challenges listed here getting worse. While COVID-19 has temporarily slowed global conflicts, expect these conflicts to increase in intensity, frequency, and scale once COVID-19 is brought under control. The world then still faces all of the other nonglobal warming challenges on this page getting worse and being mostly unresolved.
8. Escalating mass migrations. Global warming, political and economic instability, increasing terrorism, conflicts, and war plus many of these other listed global challenges will both create and expand sudden, massive migrations of millions, then billions of people. Before 2030 the world will see hundreds of millions of climagees.
9. a rising new COVID-19 like pandemic probability reoccurring every decade along with other disease epidemics (due to the melting of the permafrost, loss of natural animal habitat, eating more wild animals, overcrowding, less resilient health systems, the other challenges and consequences listed on this page, like mass migrations,)
10. political instability and collapse, fueled by existing internal and external conflicts, deficits, and the failed global challenges listed on this page. Poorly managed nations with weak economies will fall first. In 2020 we already see many countries on the verge of economic or political collapse.
11. Failing to evolve effective global governance with the needed legislative, judicial, and enforceable executive powers to solve the global challenges that cross national borders. If you think about it carefully, you will discover that the critical evolutionary failure of having no truly effective global governance IS the single biggest reason and core structural cause for why most of our other global challenges have not been resolved or continue to exist. The evolutionary absence of valid global governance alone acts to facilitate, escalate, and enable almost all of the other global challenges that we currently face.
And finally, never forget that rising global warming can further increase the severity, frequency, and scale (size) of the above other global challenges we all now face, making them even harder to resolve!
Despite 35 years of scientific reports as well as 21 International conferences about the near-certain extinction effects of the carbon (and methane,) pollution of our atmosphere, global warming temperatures have both continued to rise and have accelerated to levels that have passed dangerous tipping points.
There is true urgency to this global warming extinction emergency!
Our average global temperature and atmospheric carbon levels are far too close to crossing the near-extinction tipping points.
If we fail to make or get very close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets, this extinction emergency becomes a no-win game for everyone, no matter how much money or power they might have and, no matter where they might try to escape to!
Our current global warming extinction emergency can only be resolved by immediately reducing the human-caused production of carbon and other key greenhouse gases produced directly and indirectly from the global burning of fossil fuels.
At this "it is almost already too little too late" moment in history, the necessary fossil fuel use reductions needed to save us can only be achieved by successfully meeting our last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets enforced by our governments!
Please also keep in mind that our government leaders have utterly failed to see the coming pain and suffering of the COVID-19 pandemic, nor did they adequately prepare for it.
Once again, our government leaders are also not seeing or adequately preparing for the global warming extinction emergency, which is already happening and, will be far, far worse than the COVID-19 global pandemic!
Therefore, as global citizens of every nation on Earth, we demand that our national political leaders act now before it is too late to prevent mass human, animal, and biological extinction within our lifetimes and untold suffering!
We demand that our government leaders:
1. Meet immediately to formally declare both a national and international Global Warming Extinction Emergency.
2. Pass enforceable and verifiable national and international laws that would successfully achieve the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets or, at least get us very close to them. (Even getting close to the 2025 targets allow us to slow down what is coming so we can be better prepared.) And,
3. Call for the immediate mass mobilization of ALL the necessary resources and personnel to execute ALL critical actions required to fully resolve our current global warming extinction emergency. (See Part 3 of the Job One for Humanity Plan for a complete list of all critical government-driven actions needed to save the future.)
By electronically signing this petition (in the box below,) I am personally and officially notifying my national politicians of this demand to immediately meet and take all required actions described in this emergency petition in order to protect, preserve, and advance the continuing evolution of humanity and life on Earth.
Furthermore, realizing that most of the worst global warming consequences will take centuries to thousands of years to repair, which will create an unthinkable nightmare for any surviving future generations, I further pledge to continue to act to help resolve this extinction threat and emergency until it is over.
If you have any hesitation about signing this petition, please see this page which discusses the four extinction-evoking global warming tipping points soon arriving!
Learn more about the story behind this nonprofit organization's mission and why this petition must go worldwide and be presented to politicians all over the world by clicking here.
When you sign the petition, you are also giving the Job One for Humanity Organization permission to send you critical global warming extinction emergency progress updates about once a month.
(If necessary, see this page for additional proof that all of the statements of this petition are true.)4,095 signaturesAdd signature
Keith Hepner signed up on Defining the Climate Change & Global Warming Extinction Emergency 2016-12-10 05:58:56 -0800
(Please Note: This summary defines the climate change and global warming extinction emergency (aka climate extinction emergency, Holocene extinction, sixth mass extinction event, climate crisis, climate emergency.) It is what energizes climate marchers, climate protestors, and climate conferences and climate summit attendees to keep going no matter what the odds. We ask you to read the following and make up your own mind after verifying the facts we present below.)
We are unfortunately facing a mass extinction event within our lifetimes (the next 30-50 years.) It is being caused by the many escalating consequences of the climate change and global warming emergency. The following will help you understand why this is true even though most likely, you have heard little to anything about this from our media or governments.
In the following article, you will discover many facts about how fast global warming is escalating and how it has become the extinction emergency in which we now find ourselves.
To help you process the following uncomfortable news, at the end of this article, we also have provided some great news! You will find a capable, self-directed plan for what you can do now to resolve the global warming emergency while we still have the time to do so.
If you do not understand the basics of what global warming is or how it works, we strongly advise you click here first to view illustrations of global warming basics and then continue with the rest of this document.
Our not-for-profit Job One for Humanity organization is primarily a place focused on educating individuals and businesses on how to both survive and thrive through the series of soon-coming climate change and global warming consequences and catastrophes. Our Job One for Humanity Plan will also show you how to reduce global warming.
Quick Climate Change and Global Warming Overview:
Life on Earth has flourished best when atmospheric carbon levels were in a range of 200-270 ppm ( this is what they were in the pre-industrial age).
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has failed to properly educate global leaders and has significantly underestimated timetables, which in turn has dangerously diminished awareness of the real global warming emergency we are in.
- The battle to keep global warming less than 2° Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) has already been lost.
It is highly probable carbon parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere will rise beyond the carbon 550 ppm total, which translates to a 3° to 4°+ Celsius increase (5.4° to 7.2°+ Fahrenheit) in average global temperature. This level of temperature increase would create a "Hell on Earth." A 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) increase at carbon 600 ppm is also a realistic projection, and it will occur long before 2100 if we do not radically cut global fossil fuel use immediately to these levels. (Click here to discover the details concerning what soon crossing the carbon 500 and carbon 600 ppm will mean to your survival.)
When we resolve the global warming emergency, we will also create a new and green Third Industrial Revolution. This will, directly and indirectly, create millions of new green energy-related jobs worldwide to replace millions of lost fossil fuel industry-related jobs.
Welcome to a not-so-happy summary of the climate change and global warming emergency...
On the following pages, you will discover the uncomfortable facts and science defining what the global warming extinction emergency is and how fast global warming is really escalating. You will also discover the many additional reasons why we are now in an undeclared but global warming extinction emergency.
While reading this candid briefing, keep in mind that if we act wisely, together and with urgency, we can still slow the catastrophic global warming consequences that are coming. But, before we can wisely survive global warming, it is necessary to honestly face exactly the facts on where we are starting from.
Why 35 plus years of climate change and global warming reduction failure?
In spite of 35 years of warnings by credible scientists and the work of the environmental movement, plus a preponderance of collaborating scientific evidence, as well as numerous conferences (21 to date,) and previous treaties, the carbon dioxide and methane pollution of the atmosphere, has not stopped, slowed, or even leveled off. On the contrary, it is getting worse faster than ever before!
Leading climate scientists like James Hansen, who originally warned us about the global warming danger 35 years ago, say we would remain safe if carbon in the atmosphere did not go over 350 parts per million (ppm). As of June 2019, carbon was near 414 ppm and increasing at about 3-4 ppm per year in a near exponential progression.
When you combine the heating effect of carbon with the other greenhouse gases, it is called the CO2e ppm rating. CO2e, or carbon dioxide equivalent. CO2e is a standard unit for measuring all greenhouse gases in terms of the amount of warming they create compared to CO2.carbon footprints.
When you include atmospheric methane and the other greenhouse gas pollutants, our current adjusted CO2e rating has already risen to the shocking level of 430 ppmv of CO2e! Worse yet, we will be at carbon 450 ppm in 10 years or less when we include atmospheric methane in our calculations.
To put this in a time-lapse perspective, from 1850 to about 1950, the increase in carbon pollution was steady at about 1 ppm per year. From 1950 to 2000, the increase rose to 2 ppm per year, and now in its current exponential curve, it is at about 3 ppm per year and rising rapidly toward 3-4 ppm per year. If carbon continues to rise in this exponential, nonlinear way, virtually unchecked by our ineffective previous actions, the increase could easily reach a level of 4 plus ppm per year by 2025.
Image via Stephen Stoft at zfacts.com
According to James Hansen one of the world's most important climate researchers, a carbon 450 ppm level would eventually correspond and develop into an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century and the end of human civilization as we’ve come to know it. Based on carbon ppm levels already in the system and reaching the 450 mark, this also means at least another 2.7° Celsius (4.9° Fahrenheit) global temperature increase beyond where we are now is the eventual and inescapable future reality.
This 2.7° Celsius would also be the most realistic minimal temperature increase to predict as part of any future planning over the next 10-30 years. Bear in mind that even this scenario applies only if everything goes perfectly and we cross no additional global warming tipping points.
Unfortunately, it is highly probable that because of our ongoing denial and delay in addressing escalating global warming, atmospheric carbon parts per million will most likely continue to rapidly rise beyond the carbon 450-550 ppm total, which translates to a 3° to 4° Celsius increase (5.4° to 7.2°+ Fahrenheit) up to as much as a 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) increase in average global temperature. (A 4° Celsius increase [7.2° Fahrenheit] in average global temperature would become “Hell on earth” as Mark Lynas, author of Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, has stated.)
Hansen’s projections for “ending human civilization as we know it” are not the same as mass human extinction as we approach the 5° or 6° Celsius (9° to 10.8° Fahrenheit) temperature levels. In Hansen’s 6° Celsius rise coming from eventually crossing the carbon 450 ppm mark, what would be considered normal, comfortable, or predictable daily life in developed nations will be severely impaired. In undeveloped nations, there will be a level of chaos and breakdown that will rapidly render most of these nations politically and economically unsustainable. As it is already occurring, the chaos of existing less-developed nations destabilized by factors such as war and the global warming emergency will affect the more developed and stable nations far beyond just the current massive migrations of those escaping the suffering.
In spite of all the media PR, 21 UN / IPCC international climate conferences, endless warnings from credible scientists over the last 30 years, and national reduction pledges and treaties, things are worsening in a nearly exponential progression (2,4,8,16, etc.). There is no way to deny we are not only losing the escalating global warming battle. Unfortunately, we are also losing it at a progressively faster rate so that now global warming is close to being out of our meaningful control for the next 30-50 years. (For the precise definition of out of control global warming and how and why this happened, click here.)
Instead of enacting the needed changes when they were far easier, more gradual, and far less costly, we must now take radical, painful, and costly tough medicine if we are going to save the future. The changes that would have been inconvenient 30 years ago will now become nearly unbearable.
Some of today’s most disturbing Climate change and global warming facts
We are not receiving adequate accurate facts about how bad escalating global warming is now, or how bad it will become. The heavy fossil fuel lobbied major media conglomerates politely decline to alarm us about the real dangers of our out of control global warming emergency in order to allow the fossil fuel industry to continue business as usual.
Current atmospheric fossil fuel burning-related carbon ppm values are now at about 415. This is higher than at any other time in the last 1 million years (possibly higher than at any time in the last 25 million years). This new carbon pollution record represents an increase of 88 carbon ppm in the 55 years since David Keeling began making his revolutionary atmospheric carbon pollution measurements at Mauna Loa. (See graphs in this document.)
Carbon pollution accumulating in the atmosphere has been increasing even faster over the last few decades. It is now nearly certain that if we refuse to take immediate, effective measures to resolve global warming, future increases will happen at even faster rates.
Global average temperatures have the potential to rise far faster than what we normally experience. For example, about 9600 BC, in the Boreal climatic phase, global temperatures rose 7° C (12.6° F) in less than a decade, pushing the ice sheets into rapid collapse and sending sea levels soaring. (Ice sheets are already beginning to collapse
Our 35-year inability to control the climate change and global warming emergency is due in part to:
The lack of national and international verifiable and enforceable international laws that would make continued large-scale carbon and methane pollution of the atmosphere a strongly punished activity or crime.
The physical time lags in developing and deploying the infrastructure needed for the new green energy technologies. As we are progressing now, it will likely take another 30-50 years.
- Click here to see more key reasons for what has caused our current out of control global warming and global warming emergency.
If everyone and every government simultaneously agreed to scale up green energy generation immediately and there were no budgetary or resource restrictions in completing this life-critical project, it would still take hundreds of years to put that infrastructure in place. (See this MIT stud for the details in this 400-year estimate.)
If escalating global warming and its consequent climate destabilization proceed to the levels currently being predicted, it will eventually cost the global society hundreds of trillions of dollars in disaster recovery, as well as soaring insurance rates, massive real estate losses and depreciation, and massive coastal and other infrastructure losses, in addition to the vast amount of human suffering and death.
Right now, most nations are struggling with debt and their economies are in trouble with anemic annual growth. How will many of these nations, particularly the weakest ones, remain politically or financially viable, stable, or even continue to exist if another 5% or more of their total GDP (the Stern Review) is drained off each year into the continually escalating costs of global warming-caused climate destabilization? Current estimates from a book called Climate Shock project all global warming consequences will cost 10 percent and maybe far more of the world’s total GDP by 2100. In the latter phases of out of control or irreversible global warming described in Climageddon, the book estimates it will require 30% of the world's GDP to stay up with the re-building and other costs.
The global warming emergency is already here! Its superstorms, flooding, seasonal disruptions, wildfires, heat waves, migrating insect infestations, and droughts will continue increasing in magnitude, frequency scale. According to a recent analysis from scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), "[t]he worst-case projections for global warming may be the most likely.”
The next battle now lies in keeping our near out of control global warming from rising to an extinction-level event where human-caused carbon dioxide and methane levels in the atmosphere push the global temperature increases to 4°-6° Celsius (7.2°-10.8° Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels and beyond.
An already “baked-in” future of higher temperatures no matter what we do
A 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) increase in global average temperature by the year 2100 has been the official estimate of the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC). But it is way too low and overly optimistic. This 2° Celsius IPCC estimate is based on the operating premise that everything happening in the very complex and highly interconnected climate system will always work perfectly as predicted, in our favor, and no more known or unknown climate tipping points will be crossed.
Planning for everything to go perfectly is the perfect plan for failure, and there's a dangerous global warming shocker hidden within these low-temperature estimates. The first wave of escalating global warming superstorms or "millennial storms" (storm severity levels that have not been seen for thousands or tens of thousands of years) will be coming much sooner than we are planning for. When you include crossing more of the critical global warming tipping points and adjust projections in evaluating the current climate data, it suggests all types of extreme weather such as millennial superstorms, super droughts, super floods, and super wildfires could begin replacing our current waves of extreme weather in as little as 15 to 30 years.
Unfortunately, there's more bad news. Even if we stopped emitting all carbon dioxide and methane greenhouse gases today, we face considerably more global warming than the IPCC has publicly stated. According to Michael Mann, Distinguished Professor of Meteorology at the University of Pennsylvania State, we are already on track for a total rise in temperature of 1.7° Celsius (about 3° Fahrenheit) in the northern hemisphere, no matter what we now do to slow or stop global warming. In part, this is because there is future global warming already “baked into” the warming pipeline.
This is what it is called “committed warming.” Committed warming is inevitable, delayed only by the lag time for the oceans to heat up, owing to the slow ocean warming response to greenhouse gases.
The temperature increase of 1.7° Celsius (3° Fahrenheit) is already committed. This is baked-in global warming and it is really bad news.
Worse yet, the computer modeling used to create the 1.7° Celsius prediction also does not include the possibility that we have unconsciously already crossed or could very soon cross more global warming tipping points. If that has happened or will happen soon, the calculation for already committed global warming could be significantly above 1.7° Celsius. We could rapidly move through an increase of 2° or 3° Celsius (3.6° to 5.4° Fahrenheit) and beyond.
Additionally, after all of the atmospheric fossil fuel-related soot is gone, global temperatures are estimated to go up an additional .2 to .5° Celsius (0.36°-1° Fahrenheit), depending upon the atmospheric soot levels in your area of the world.
This additional calculation for how the average global temperature will go up as we rapidly shut down the aerosol soot created by fossil fuel burning is significant. This implies that planning your personal or business future using only 1.7° Celsius (3° Fahrenheit) of already committed and “baked-in” average global warming is also a faulty and dangerous future planning assumption.
It would be far wiser to assume an increase in average global temperature of 1.9° to 2.2° Celsius (about 3.4° to 4° Fahrenheit) as a long-term planning starting point. While 1.9° to 2.2° Celsius is more realistic, it is still not as good as the most realistic 2.7° Celsius increase for longer-term planning. This is because the 1.7° to 2.2° Celsius (3° to 4° Fahrenheit) previous temperature planning starting point also does not include any calculations regarding crossing more global warming and climate system or subsystem tipping points, which is highly likely to happen.
To put this already committed, non-tipping point inclusive temperature range increase of 1.7° to 2.2° Celsius into another comparative perspective, the IPCC at the last Paris conference in December 2015 still pushed hard promoting that global warming should not rise above 1.5° Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit). This is because they already know a 1.5° Celsius increase heralds an unending chain of horrific disasters for many of the world’s poorest countries. Why the IPPC promoted a global temperature target that was below the already known baked-in increase is hard to comprehend, and it will be indirectly explained here.
According to Professor Mann, when we hit 405 parts per million (ppm) of carbon in the atmosphere, we have now committed ourselves to a 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) increase in global temperature. Now add in the fact that none of the above already committed global warming calculations except the 2.7°C (4.9° Fahrenheit) projection include any possibility that we have already unknowingly crossed or will cross more global warming tipping points. We are in deep trouble already!
From the preceding, it would be unrealistic to keep promoting that we can realistically keep the average global temperature increase below 2° Celsius. Yet, that is exactly what the IPCC promoted to world’s nations at its 2015 Paris conference in addition to promoting its lower 1.5° Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit) target.
It is time to face bitter facts. The battle to keep warming from rising less than 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) has been lost!
In reality, if we include crossing more tipping points we face a baked-in 2.7° degrees Celsius (4.9° Fahrenheit) average global temperature rise as we approach carbon 425 to 450 ppm. We need to immediately begin preparing for these severe temperature increases while we still have time!
It is also important to be aware that even though the 2.7° degrees Celsius temperature is already baked in and committed also because of previously mentioned momentum and inertia issues, it does not mean these higher temperatures will occur immediately. It could take a decade or more for these baked-in temperature rises to be fully realized.
Additionally, when we extrapolate from the IPCC’s own current worst-case projections using what you have learned so far, a 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) increase occurring much sooner than 2100 becomes a real probability. This eventual 6° Celsius temperature increase prediction is based on these highly probable assumptions:
We continue business as usual, increasing the carbon pollution of the atmosphere at our current exponentially rising levels of carbon 3-4+ ppm per year,
Methane continues rising as it has over the last several decades because of the fracking boom, big agribusiness, and other factors, and
We have unknowingly already crossed or will soon cross more known or unknown global warming tipping points within any of the critical systems or subsystems of the climate system. For example, in May of 2014, we crossed another dangerous climate tipping point when scientists discovered that the West Antarctic Ice Shelf has gone into an irreversible and escalating melt.
According to the climate author Mark Lynas, if we let our planet’s temperature increase by 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit), “it would cause a mass extinction of almost all life and probably reduce humanity to a few struggling groups of embattled survivors clinging to life near the poles.”
In order for humanity to endure, we now have no other prudent choice but to do whatever we can to try to lessen and slow the long-term pain of this emergency so that global warming does not make us extinct. We may still have enough time to prepare families, businesses, nations, and ourselves for the tremendous stress that escalating global warming will cause—but only if we begin preparing for it now!
Putting only a 2° Celsius temperature rise in perspective using carbon levels and temperature fluctuations from Earth’s past
Seeing the global warming emergency from as many perspectives as possible will help you better grasp the depth and seriousness of the emergency we are in. For example, the Earth’s geologic past not only verifies that specific outcomes of global warming have occurred, but also gives us vital information about what similar consequences will likely occur as we duplicate the carbon dioxide levels, atmospheric temperatures, and other conditions of our distant and not-so-distant past.
According to a 2015 paper in Science, about three million years ago:
The average global temperature was about 1.7°-2.7° Celsius (3°-5° Fahrenheit) warmer than today.
The Arctic regions of the planet were about 7° Celsius (12.6° Fahrenheit) warmer.
Carbon dioxide levels were about as high as today.
Sea levels stood at least 20 feet (6-7 meters) above today’s level.
In our more recent geological past, around 400,000 and 125,000 years ago, average global temperatures were respectively about 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) and about 1° Celsius (1.8° Fahrenheit) above pre-Industrial times. During those two separate time periods, the upper bounds for sea-level rise were estimated to be up to 42 feet higher (13 meters) than the present. As you can imagine, at those temperatures either of the sea level rises (20-foot or 42-foot) would be a nightmare for world shorelines and their populations if they were to occur today.
Unfortunately, that is exactly what we are racing toward—and beyond. According to the same Science article, even if we managed to limit average global warming to just 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit), sea levels may still eventually rise at least 20 feet (6 meters) above their current levels.
The illustration below will be useful for mid-range planning (the next 10-15 years) for any industry, individual, or nation whose future plans will be affected by the previously discussed consequences of escalating global warming. Keep in mind, this illustration with its estimated time frames does not include crossing any additional tipping points.
Why the climate change and global warming State of Emergency isn’t being discussed by our political leaders
To help you see where and why we are currently in a losing battle to end global warming, we have provided the following Keeling-styled graphs for the atmospheric carbon level data in different parts of this document.
Image via Robert A. Rohdes, Wikimedia commons.
The above graph shows variations in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during the last 400 thousand years. It also helps to illustrate the carbon pollution data progressing from the Industrial Revolution of the 1880s to the present day. Other data also show the carbon ppm levels for the last several hundred thousand to millions of years. This way, you can see the modern spike in today's carbon pollution emergency in a historical, and especially post-Industrial, context.
More carbon in the atmosphere equals more heat
It is important to notice in the graph above that the long-term average carbon parts per million (ppm) never rose much above 270 ppm until the Industrial Revolution. For hundreds of thousands of years, carbon ppm stayed in a general range significantly below where it is today. Only hundreds of millions of years ago were carbon ppm levels much higher, during Earth's turbulent developmental and volcanic periods.
Something has radically changed in carbon ppm atmospheric levels since the beginning of the fossil fuel-powered Industrial Revolution of the 1880s. For the first time in hundreds of thousands of years, we have now crossed the unprecedented carbon 400 ppm level. Today's carbon ppm 413+ level is now nearly double the carbon 200-270 ppm range it held consistently for hundreds of thousands of years. This radical change in such a short period of geological time can and will have serious consequences!
Even if we do not cross any other global warming tipping points, which avoidance is highly unlikely, just by extrapolation using the current exponential rise per year and cumulative carbon levels, we could be at carbon 550 ppm in 30-40 years...or sooner. If we hit carbon 550 ppm, which translates to a temperature increase range of about 3° to 4°+ Celsius increase (5.4° to 7.2°+ Fahrenheit), as it appears we will, this "seals the deal" on destructive changes for most life on Earth (as described in Phase 3 of the Climageddon Scenario).
Extrapolating from the carbon ppm and average global temperature graph shown below, it appears that in spite of everything that we are doing now to slow escalating global warming, the current global average temperature is increasing by approximately 1/2 degree for about every 25 additional parts per million of carbon going into the atmosphere.
Image via Stephen Stoft at zfacts.com
The above graph provides evidence that CO2 is a contributing cause of global warming. This ongoing or increasing fossil fuel use will increase carbon ppm, which then increases the average global temperature. This increased or decreased carbon ppm in the atmosphere appears to have a direct or near direct relationship to rising and falling temperature all the way back to
Earth's earliest times.
Image via Robert A. Rhodes, Wikimedia Commons.
In the next graph below, one can see carbon pollution levels hundreds of millions of years into our past. As you can extrapolate from the carbon ppm range disclosed near the bottom of the far lower left of the graph, modern life forms as we know them today appear to exist and function best when atmospheric carbon levels are quite low in about the 200-270 ppm range. Life on Earth was much different with the higher carbon levels seen hundreds of millions of years ago.(Here, COPSE, GEOCARB III, and Rothman illustrate the findings from geochemical models for tracking CO2 levels in the past. Abbreviations at the bottom stand for the Neogene, Paleogene, Cretaceous, Jurassic, Triassic, Permian, Carboniferous, Devonian, Silurian, Ordovician, and Cambrian periods in geologic history. Image via Robert A. Rohdes, Wikimedia Commons.)
How human systems contribute to the climate change and global warming State of Emergency
It would not be fair to discuss over 30 years of continuous global warming warnings without also describing some of the problems of inertia within our human systems. Inertia is defined as the resistance of any physical object to any change in its current state of motion (including changes to its speed, direction or state of rest or motion).
Our current global society is locked into the grip of almost a century and a half of change resistance (inertia) that favors using more and more fossil fuel. Part of the reason for this resistance is that fossil fuel use directly or indirectly is also responsible for about one-third of the world's gross domestic product (GDP).
The fossil fuel industry engenders a powerful human system resistance to change that we will have to overcome in order to successfully change over to green energy generation systems. The fossil fuel industry is constantly fighting the needed evolution of our energy generation systems. But even if we ended all fossil fuel use today, it is estimated that it would take 30 to 50 years to replace all of the current fossil fuel generation and distribution infrastructure.
Unfortunately, there is nothing close to unanimous agreement to act now, and we don't have another 30 to 50 years to fight the resistance of various fossil-fueled nations and fossil fuel-related corporations. Therefore, it is completely fair to say that the fossil fuel industry resistance and inertia are significant factors explaining why after 30 years of warnings, global warming is actually getting worse and not better!
In addition to the inertia and resistance of the fossil fuel industry working against efforts to end the use of polluting fossil fuels, there is other significant human system resistance (inertia) factors for why global warming is escalating faster than ever before in spite of all previous warnings:
1) Human evolutionary psychology: We are designed to react to immediate and obvious threats with the flight or fight response. Escalating global warming is slow, almost invisible, and it is generally believed to be far off in the future. Also, for many individuals, it is so complex that it can't be comprehended as the single most serious international security threat of the 21st century.
2) Human political evolution: Human society has not yet evolved a global government with transnational enforcement and verification powers over all the member nations of our world. Global warming is a transnational problem that has to have a transnational solution.
3) Human legal evolution: Humanity has not evolved viable global courts to work out the inherent international justice issues relating to the developed countries that caused the pollution and will likely benefit from it in the short term. We really have no international justice process for dealing with the fact that undeveloped countries that didn't cause the pollution are expected to suffer nearly equally in the costs and efforts of resolving it.
4) Global political evolution: The designated world authority, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC), failing to properly educate global leaders on all critical global warming risks, along with providing significantly underestimated timetables, has dangerously diminished a global sense of collective urgency and public awareness. This has significantly reduced the demand for change even though strong warnings were initiated over 30 years ago.
There are other reasons why we have failed for 30 years and still face a daunting challenge to end the global warming emergency, which will be covered in detail here.
A difficult truth
Before facing a difficult truth, it is important to review the definitions of climate and weather. Climate is the statistics of weather, usually over a 30-year interval. It is measured by assessing the patterns of variation in temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, precipitation, atmospheric particle count, and other meteorological variables in a given region over long periods of time. Climate differs from weather, in that weather only describes the short-term conditions of these variables in a given region. (From Wikipedia.)
Fossil fuel lobbyists like to intentionally confuse us by directing our attention to the far shorter time cycles of climate and weather, whereas global warming cycles occur over far longer time cycles (as seen in the graphs depicting hundreds, thousands, and millions of years.) When we compare the current global warming cycle and temperature range to past global warming cycles and temperature ranges rather than tiny 30-year climate cycles, we can see what's really happening and how dangerous global warming is to our future.
From the preceding, it is not difficult for any rational person to see that we are dealing with far more than garden-variety seasonal changes in the weather or the normal 30-year climate cycle. We are dealing with a full-blown and yet undeclared global warming emergency.
In truth, we have wasted over 30 years of valid warnings, and now there is no time left to make the gradual changes that we should have begun over 30 years ago. Immediate, radical, and painful change must happen now. Our global warming emergency is not off in the future 25, 50, or 100 years from now as you have been deceived into believing. Our global warming emergency is now.
Here are the critical additional links to review to understand more about our current mass extinction event threat, its solutions, and climate change and global warming's soon-arriving four extinction-provoking tipping points.
Once you have read the following critical additional materials to this article, you will understand the full spectrum of extinction dangers we are facing and you will be one of the most informed individuals concerning the honest nature and scope of our global warming extinction emergency.
First, click here for what you will need to know about our last practical and realistic chance to control our global warming futures and prevent extinction by achieving the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. These global targets are not at all what you have been told by our fossil fuel influenced media. This article will also give you detailed information about what happens when we cross the three extinction-evoking tipping points of carbon 425 ppm, carbon 500 ppm, and carbon 600 ppm.
Click here for a quick overview of how the currently unavoidable global warming mass extinction threat has now been eclipsed by the very real threat of total extinction as we quickly pass through the three major global warming tipping points within the next 30-30 years.
And finally, click here to overview and select from the action options available to you to prepare for, adapt to, and manage this emergency in the Job One for Humanity Plan. This way you will be able to prepare and adapt wisely so that you survive and thrive through what is now unavoidable in global warming consequences.
If you understand enough about this emergency, please sign the petition to declare a Climate Change and Global Warming Extinction Emergency and then start the Job One Plan to resolve this mess as best we can.
In the above graphs of this document, the predictions for increased carbon ppm levels and temperature, unfortunately, does not also include: the continued likelihood that more carbon ppm (about 3-4 ppm per year,) will enter the atmosphere each year due to increasing population and fossil fuel use, causing an ever-faster rate of average global temperature increase, or the effects of the additional methane going into the atmosphere because of existing and new natural gas fracking, all of the existing leaks in methane storage and transportation systems, and big agribusiness, or calculations for more climate tipping points that will be crossed as the atmosphere heats up in a vicious self-reinforcing cycle and a positive feedback loop.
Despite 35 years of warnings from credible scientists and compelling scientific evidence, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane pollution have only worsened.
We are already in an unacknowledged global warming State of Emergency.
Do not be fooled by what you read about global warming reduction progress or fossil fuel reduction commitments in fossil fuel-lobbied and influenced mainstream media. The fossil fuel industry wants to keep making money and polluting our atmosphere without charge.
In a nutshell, the global warming emergency is due to:
- today’s carbon ppm level of about 413 ppm doubling from the carbon 200-270 range it held consistently for hundreds of thousands of years,
- carbon ppm levels rising exponentially at the greatest levels since the Industrial Revolution, and
- we are poised to cross more global warming tipping points, moving us ever closer to the extinction phases of the Climageddon Scenario. In effect, our global warming emergency should really be called our global warming extinction emergency.
According to James Hansen, even a carbon 450 ppm level (which will occur in about 10-15 years at present carbon pollution rates) would eventually correspond to an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century and the end of human civilization as we’ve come to know it.
Our current global warming extinction emergency marks the end of the climate stability that has allowed humanity and humanity’s ancestors to flourish for hundreds of thousands of years.
- We need to get busy reaching the last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
- If we do not reach or come very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, we not only will suffer a global warming-caused mass extinction event within the next 30-50 years, we also will trigger a total extinction event within the next 50-70 years.
- To reach or come close to the life-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, we must prepare and adapt in order to survive and thrive. The most effective way to do that is to begin the Job One for Humanity Plan to manage the global warming emergency.
- The core message of this website is simple and straightforward:
2. If we pass beyond global warming extinction-triggering tipping points, it will be because the forces of nature (the systems and subsystems of our climate, atmosphere, and ecosystems) have seized control from us because of the immutable laws of physics relating to the fossil fuel carbon pollution of our atmosphere.
3. If we fail to meet the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and pass beyond the extinction-triggering tipping points within decades, there will be an unavoidable mass human die-off (as much as 70-90% of humanity.)
4. If we get our governments to act immediately to achieve the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets using the effective fossil fuel reduction steps (described here,) we still have time to save ourselves and thrive!
5. Global warming is the greatest disruptor of the 21st century. It is also a threat mega-multiplier for these other 12 critical global challenges.
Other than avoiding nuclear war, the global warming extinction emergency has become the prime driver for having a future for humanity on Earth. If we allow global warming to go out of our control by missing the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, there is little hope we can avoid global warming mass extinction or control the escalating consequences of the world's other 12 other critical challenges.
The above is all you have to remember about global warming and your future. Many of the pages of our website are about showing you the exact science behind these three simple statements so that you can verify what we are saying is true. You can start or continue that verification process here.
- Click here to see where we are today on the Climate Change and Global Warming Doomsday Clock.
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A deeper dive into the science
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In order to help you better visualize the global warming tipping point risks, as well as why we are not effectively acting to end the extreme risks of the global warming State of Emergency, we strongly recommend you view The Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See 2. It has been watched almost 7 million times. Click here to watch that video now.
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