Keith Hepner commented on NORTH POLE TEMPERATURES CLIMB NEAR MELTING POINT THIS CHRISTMAS WEEK... 2016-12-29 00:16:41 -0800just a matter of time
(There are similar short and long emergency petitions below. After reading either one, sign electronically with the Sign button or at the bottom of this page. After signing, you will receive an immediate email copy and acknowledgment.)
Tens of thousands have already signed this petition and similar petitions worldwide!
(Short Form) The Climate Change and Runaway Global Heating Extinction Emergency Petition
We are now facing the worst-case climate change and global heating scenario. Its environmental deterioration, and extinction threat can only be slowed down by our governments immediately enforcing the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
Getting close to the correct 2025 global targets will reduce damaging greenhouse gases like carbon, methane from fracking, and the melting permafrost. It will also help prevent the loss of 10 million lives a year from the effects of toxic air pollution caused by fossil fuel burning.
Therefore, I hereby demand that our political leaders act today before it is too late to prevent untold suffering and even the extinction of much of humanity by as early as mid-century!
I specifically demand that our government leaders meet to first:
1. Formally declare a national and international Runaway Global Heating Extinction Emergency. (Unless we call the climate change threat the emergency that it really is, we will never be able to manage it.)
2. Next, immediately pass enforceable and verifiable national and international laws that will get us close to the required, correct, and honest, 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
3. Next, order an immediate government mass mobilization of ALL necessary resources and personnel to execute ALL required governmental actions to come as close as possible to the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. (This will slow and lessen our accelerating climate change and global heating emergency.) And then,
4. Do everything possible to start preparing and adapting our nation and the world to the many soon-arriving severe climate change and global heating consequences which we can no longer avoid or prevent.
By electronically signing this petition (in the box at the bottom of the page,) I am officially petitioning my national politicians to execute the four above actions to protect and preserve humanity and all animal and biological life on Earth before we run out of time to do so sometime near 2025.
That is the end of the short-form petition. To sign, click the red "Sign Petition Now" button just below or sign it at the bottom of this page.
(Long Form) The Climate Change and Global Heating Extinction Emergency Petition
(When you electronically sign the form at the bottom of this page the petition is activated and we immediately email you a copy.)
We, the citizens of our nation and of the Earth, are endowed with certain rights, powers, and obligations, which demand we act to preserve and protect the future of humanity as well as Earth's other animal and biological life.
Based on abundant scientific evidence or our own current experiences, we recognize that the global climate is rapidly warming and becoming increasingly unstable due to human-caused atmospheric carbon pollution primarily from the burning of fossil fuels.
We also recognize that in spite of 40 years of credible scientific warnings, global heating is still rising and has now reached dangerous levels causing the widespread deterioration of our environment!
We are now facing the worst-case global heating scenario. The climate change and the runaway global heating extinction emergency, its environmental deterioration, and its extinction threat can only be slowed down by our governments immediately mass mobilizing and enforcing the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
Getting close to the correct 2025 global targets will reduce damaging greenhouse gases like carbon and methane from fracking and the melting permafrost. It will also help prevent the loss of 10 million lives a year from the effects of toxic air pollution caused by fossil fuel burning.
We have already seen or experienced global heating-aggravated weather, like record-breaking floods, hurricanes, and wildfires. We have witnessed the "worst in centuries" droughts and dust storms. We have experienced alternating unseasonably cold then warm winters, extreme storms, bomb cyclones, and rain bombs where weeks or months' worth of rain falls in a few hours or a few days.
With our own eyes, we see that something very abnormal is happening to the previous normal stability of our seasonal weather patterns. We have also noticed that global heating-connected consequences (like those just mentioned,) are becoming more frequent, more severe, and are affecting larger and larger areas of our country and the world!
We recognize that if we do not immediately reduce our global fossil fuel burning behaviors before additional critical global heating tipping points are crossed, the destabilization of our global climate will continue at even faster rates causing among other things, unprecedented global crop failures and unthinkable mass starvation.
Our best climate scientists have determined that if we do not meet or come very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets (found here,) we will face a massive extinction event where about half of humanity will die by mid-century. We also recognize that the hyper-optimism of current new technology carbon capture schemes (NETs) are in reality, no more than asking us to believe that magical carbon-sucking unicorns will appear at the last minute and save us from our own continuing failure to radically reduce the use of fossil fuels.
Unsurprisingly, escalating global heating will not only affect humanity's survival possibilities. It also presents an equally grave extinction threat to much of the animal and biological species on Earth.
Rising global heating has already become the 21st century's single greatest disruptor, multiplier, and amplifier of existing economic, political, social, and biological instability. It will also act to make most of our other 11 most destructive and important global problems far worse.
If we fail to make the life-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets in time, escalating global heating will pass multiple points of no return and the laws of climate physics will take over and global warming will go out of our meaningful control.
The primary and secondary climate change consequences are already affecting millions in many areas of the world. No one will be ultimately safe from the consequences of runaway global warming and the real and present mass extinction threat it presents.
Many individuals and businesses are already forced to deal with global warming-related catastrophes, food, and resource depletion, as well as the mass migration of desperate climagees (climate migrants.) Long before mid-century, climate change catastrophes will be harming billions of people everywhere on Earth!
The coming financial bill for escalating climate catastrophes will eventually crush the economies of most nations.
We now face a world in which runaway global heating can cause the extinction of half of humanity and create increasing social, economic, and political chaos, not sometime near 2100 as was wrongly predicted, but as soon as mid-century.
Worse yet, as our average global temperatures continue to rise, the world's 11 other major social, economic, and political challenges will also amplify each other. Our 11 other largest global challenges (other than climate change and immediate global nuclear war or biological or nuclear terrorism,) will interact with each other and will also worsen as global warming gets worse.
Those 11 other major global challenges are:
Global Challenge 1: ever-rising over-population, (the Earth has the carrying capacity for about 1 1/2 - 2 billion people. Currently, we are near 8 billion people adding about 130 million additional people each year racing to 9.8 billion by or before 2050. (About 50 million people a year normally die.)
We are way over sustainable population levels already yet, no government other than China seems willing to set a one child per couple policy! Future and current generations will suffer unthinkable catastrophes because, as humanity, we failed to manage the size of our global population to match the carrying capacity of our global environment and the Earth's available resources.
Please note that as the global population continues to rise, the additional population serves to further amplify and multiply the most harmful consequences of almost all the 12 other global challenges and consequences listed on this page.) One could easily say that overpopulation and its inherent over-consumption beyond our carrying capacity is also a major cause behind today's climate change emergency. (Please click this carrying capacity link to learn more about why this rapidly rising overpopulation challenge is so dangerous.)
For a candid and balanced article on the immense suffering caused by our overpopulation global challenge, please see this article, Population, the Great Knee-Jerker: A Holistic Survey and Plea to Reduce Suffering.
Global Challenge 2: rising global resource depletion (aka overshoot) caused by overpopulation, toxic pollution of water, lands, and air, crop failures, overfishing, topsoil loss, resource distribution injustice, and the massive “overconsumption and waste” of the Earth's finite resources. Global resource depletion will significantly increase food shortages and cause soaring food prices leading to more starvation and mass migrations. For example, the following are estimates of when only a few of our critical global resources will be depleted; freshwater 12 years (2032), fish stocks almost totally gone by 2050, adequate topsoil for crop growing gone by 2070. (See this page to see 90 percent of fish stock already overfished and to see charts on how this loss will throw much of the world into starvation.)
Of particular concern is the depletion of phosphorous critically needed for crop fertilizers. Adequate access to this could run out in as little as 35-45 years.
(If you still do not believe that massive resource depletion and overshoot is a huge soon-arriving problem? Watch this fantastic resource overshoot video with great graphics and global resource depletion amounts and time frames in simple illustrations by Hugh Montgomery, a noted English professor. We strongly recommend you watch this video for all of the food and non-food resources that are in an accelerating depletion peril. [Forward the video to the 10 minutes and 30-second mark to begin watching Professor Hugh Montgomery's compelling graphic presentation.])
There are also many other critical mineral and non-mineral resources that will also run out soon, click here for more about these.
Global Challenge 3: escalating pollution of lands, air, and waters. Ongoing and accelerating toxic pollution kills crops, fish stocks, and poisons our air, water, and soil creating and accelerating all types of global health, social, and economic problems. (Ocean heating and ocean acidification from carbon from global warming will eventually kill off much of the oceans' oxygen-producing plankton. These plankton are responsible for as much as 50% of all oxygen produced on the planet.)
Global Challenge 4: loss of biodiversity, we are having more plants and animals go extinct than at any other time in human history. This is due to an ongoing and accelerating loss of natural habitat due to overpopulation, global warming, overuse, pollution, etc. (Leading Stanford University biologists, who were first to reveal that we are already experiencing the sixth mass extinction on Earth, released new research this week showing species extinctions are accelerating in an unprecedented manner, which may be another tipping point for the collapse of human civilization.)
Global Challenge 5: growing economic inequality, social and racial injustice, hunger, and poverty. Today less than 1% of the world's population owns more than 50% of all wealth. Over the last several decades, this ownership percentage continues to grow in favor of the wealthy.
Growing economic inequality and poverty always increase food shortages and often cause food prices to soar leading once again to mass starvation and mass migrations. This year (2020,) 130 million people are lacking adequate food and could starve to death. COVID-19's effect on the world economy could double that number of the next few years. Over the following decades, climate change consequences will raise that number into the hundreds of millions eventually rising well past a billion.)
Global Challenge 6: Resolving the ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic. Directly and indirectly, the current COVID-19 pandemic is due in significant part to the loss of natural wild animal habitat caused by global warming and other man-made causes such as eating more wild and not domesticated animals, the exploding and hungry world populations crowding into urban areas, and the overall deterioration of global health services.
The COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to go on around the world until mid to late 2022 or even into early 2024 before everyone is vaccinated. Like what has happened with AIDS and other viruses over the last 30 years, we will be living with the effects of COVID-19 possibly forever or until a “herd immunity” is developed (if that type of immunity is even applicable to this specific virus.)
Global Challenge 7: increasing global economic instabilities that are leading to regularly reoccurring global and national recessions or depressions over shorter and shorter time periods. (These recessions and depressions are fueled by existing economic weaknesses, lack of financial reserves, huge national deficits, low financial system resilience, and major unexpected shocks or events (like COVID-19,) hitting the global markets and global financial systems.
COVID-19 is predicted to create a global financial recession or depression that could last until late 2022 or until 2025 or as long as 2030. (Ten years for recovery from a COVID-19 global recession or depression is not that long when you consider that ten years is the time it took to recover from the 2008 global banking and housing meltdown and recession.)
Global Challenge 8: escalating regional and international terrorism, conflicts, and war. While COVID-19 has temporarily slowed some regional and national conflicts, expect these conflicts to increase in intensity, frequency, and scale once COVID-19 is brought under control. The world still faces all of the other global challenges on this page getting worse and being mostly unresolved. Global nuclear war is still both a real and escalating threat as all of the global challenges on this page continue to get worse and nations with nuclear weapons contest with each other and other nations for safer lands and dwindling resources.
Global Challenge 9: More mass migrations, political and economic instability, increasing terrorism, conflicts, and war plus global warming, and many of the other listed global challenges on this page will both create and expand sudden, massive migrations of millions then billions of people. During this phase, as the listed global challenges on this page intensify, various stronger governments will order precautionary evacuations to limit casualties and losses from their most vulnerable areas. Before 2030 because of climate change alone, the world will see hundreds of millions of climagees (climate refugees.)
Global Challenge 10: increasing political instability and collapsing governments. Fueled by existing internal and external conflicts, soaring deficits, and the intensifying global challenges listed on this page, poorly managed nations with weak economies and low existing resilience will fall first. In 2020 we already see numerous countries on the verge of economic or political collapse. As the increased stresses of these listed global challenges continue to increase upon already weakened nations, more nations will steadily collapse.
Global Challenge 11: Our failure to evolve effective global governance with the needed legislative, judicial, and enforceable executive powers to solve global challenges that cross national borders. If you think about it carefully, you will discover that this global challenge (and critical evolutionary failure,) of having no unified or truly effective global governance, IS one of the single biggest reasons and core structural causes for why most of our other global challenges have not yet been resolved or, continue to exist. The evolutionary absence of effective global governance alone acts to facilitate, escalate, or enable almost all of the other global challenges that we currently face.
Global Challenge 12: New COVID-19 like pandemics as well as other new and older disease epidemics that will now likely occur every decade. This will in part be due to global warming melting of the permafrost, loss of natural animal habitat, eating more wild animals, overcrowding, less resilient health systems, mass migrations, wars and conflicts, and many of the other challenges and consequences listed on this page.
Additionally, new and older disease epidemics will occur more frequently and be more severe because of the abuse of antibiotics in animal product production. This abuse has resulted in bacteria that are now resistant to every known type of antibiotic. Worse yet, because of accelerating global warming, more COVID-19 type global pandemics could come as often as every decade. The AIDS virus became widespread in the late 1970s, the SARS virus in 2003, the MERS virus in 2012, and the Ebola virus in 2013. Click here for more about how escalating global warming may begin producing COVID-19 like pandemics every decade.
Despite 40+years of scientific reports as well as 33 International conferences about the certain extinction effects of the massive carbon (and methane,) pollution of our atmosphere, global heating temperatures have both continued to rise and have accelerated to levels that have already passed dangerous tipping points.
There is now a true urgency to sign the Runaway Global Heating Extinction Emergency Petition. Help Prevent Mass Human, Animal, and Biological Extinction within Our Lifetimes.
Our average global temperature and atmospheric carbon levels are far too close to crossing the final 3 extinction-accelerating tipping points.
It is now too late for individual fossil fuel reduction actions alone! Our governments must act in an immediate, all-out mass mobilization creating all of the needed resources and enforcing any needed new laws to ensure we come close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets.
If we fail to get close to the 2025 targets, this emergency becomes a no-win game for everyone, no matter how much money or power they might have and, no matter where they might try to escape to!
Our current climate change and global heating extinction emergency can only be resolved by first immediately and radically reducing the global human-caused production of fossil fuel carbon and other key greenhouse gases (like methane) produced directly and indirectly from the global burning of fossil fuels.
Therefore, we hereby demand
that our national political leaders act now before it is too late to slow down and lessen the untold suffering of a mass human, animal, and biological extinction by about mid-century!
I specifically demand that our government leaders meet to first:
1. Formally declare a national and international Runaway Global Heating Extinction Emergency.
2. Next, immediately pass enforceable and verifiable national and international laws that will get us close to the correct, 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
3. Next, order an immediate mass mobilization of ALL necessary resources and personnel to execute ALL required governmental and individual actions needed to come as close as possible to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. And, then
4. Do everything possible to start adapting our nations and the world to the many coming severe global heating consequences which we can no longer stop or avoid.
By electronically signing this petition (in the box at the bottom of the page,) I am officially petitioning my national politicians to immediately execute all four above actions to end global heating and protect and preserve humanity and life on Earth.
Furthermore, realizing that most of the worst climate change consequences that are already occurring will take centuries to thousands of years to repair, (which will create an unthinkable nightmare for any surviving future generations,) I further pledge to continue to act to help resolve this accelerating extinction threat and emergency until it is successfully resolved!
When you sign the petition, you are giving us permission to send you the petition signature acknowledgment and critical climate change emergency progress updates once a month.
Additional Petition Documentation and Information If Needed
1. If you still have any hesitation about signing this petition, please see this page which discusses the four extinction-evoking global warming tipping points soon arriving!
2. Click here for details on the primary and secondary global warming-related consequences that are bringing about real threats of mass extinction and global collapse.
3. Click here for why carbon capture and other new technologies can not save us in time and we must focus on reducing all global fossil fuel use now.
4. Learn more about the story behind this nonprofit organization's mission and why this petition must go worldwide and be presented to politicians all over the world by clicking here.8,491 signaturesAdd signature
Our accelerating climate change and global heating (aka global warming) emergency is what energizes climate marchers, climate protestors, climate conferences, and climate summit attendees to keep going no matter what the odds.
We ask you to read the following and make up your own mind after verifying the facts we present below. At the bottom of this page is a link to effective global warming and climate emergency solutions.)
At the end of this article, to counterbalance these highly disruptive global warming facts, you will find a link to a comprehensive four-part plan for what you can do to help manage the climate change emergency! You will also find a link to the many surprising and significant benefits that you and humanity will acquire as we resolve the global warming challenge, opportunity, and adventure. We must not forget "that our greatest challenges are also our greatest opportunities."
We are unfortunately facing a mass to total extinction event within our lifetimes (the next 30-50 years.) It is being caused by the many escalating consequences of the global warming and climate change emergency. The following will help you understand the definition of the climate change emergency and why this is real even though most likely, you have heard little to anything about this from our media or governments.
In the following article, you will discover many facts about how fast global warming is escalating and how it has become the climate change emergency in which we now find ourselves.
To help you process the following uncomfortable news, at the end of this article, we also have provided some great news! You will find a capable, self-directed plan for what you can do now to resolve the global warming and climate emergency while we still have the time to do so.
If you do not understand the basics of what global warming is or how it works, we strongly advise you to click here first to view illustrations of global warming basics and then continue with the rest of this document.
Quick Climate Change and Global Heating Emergency Overview:
Life on Earth has flourished best when atmospheric carbon levels were in a range of 200-270 ppm ( this is what they were in the pre-industrial age).
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has failed to properly educate global leaders and has significantly underestimated timetables, which in turn has dangerously diminished awareness of the real climate change emergency we are in.
- The battle to keep global warming at less than 2° Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) has already been lost.
It is highly probable carbon parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere will rise beyond the carbon 550 ppm total, which translates to a 3° to 4°+ Celsius increase (5.4° to 7.2°+ Fahrenheit) in average global temperature. This level of temperature increase would create a "Hell on Earth."
A 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) increase at carbon 600 ppm is also a realistic projection, and it will occur long before 2100 if we do not radically cut global fossil fuel use immediately to these global levels. (Click here to discover the details concerning what soon crossing the carbon 500 and carbon 600 ppm will mean to your survival.)
When we resolve the climate change emergency, there will be many benefits. We will also create a new and green Third Industrial Revolution. This will, directly and indirectly, create millions of new green energy-related jobs worldwide to replace millions of lost fossil fuel industry-related jobs.
Welcome to a not-so-happy summary of the global heating and climate change emergency...
On the following pages, you will discover the uncomfortable facts and science defining what the climate change emergency is and how fast global warming is really escalating. You will also discover the many additional reasons why we are now in an undeclared but climate change extinction emergency.
While reading this candid briefing, keep in mind that if we act wisely, together, and with urgency, we can still slow the catastrophic global warming consequences that are coming. But, before we can wisely survive global warming, it is necessary to honestly face exactly the facts on where we are starting from.
Why 40 plus years of climate change and global heating reduction failure?
In spite of 40 years of warnings by credible scientists and the work of the environmental movement, plus a preponderance of collaborating scientific evidence, as well as numerous conferences (21 to date,) and previous treaties, the carbon dioxide and methane pollution of the atmosphere, has not stopped, slowed, or even leveled off. On the contrary, it is getting worse faster than ever before! (See atmospheric carbon graph in parts per million below.)
Leading climate scientists like James Hansen, who originally warned us about the global warming danger 35 years ago, say we would remain safe if carbon in the atmosphere did not go over 350 parts per million (ppm). As of June 2019, carbon was near 420 ppm and increasing at about 3-4 ppm per year in a near exponential progression.
When you combine the heating effect of carbon with the other greenhouse gases, it is called the CO2e ppm rating. CO2e, or carbon dioxide equivalent. CO2e is a standard unit for measuring all greenhouse gases in terms of the amount of warming they create compared to CO2.carbon footprints.
When you include atmospheric methane and the other greenhouse gas pollutants, our current adjusted CO2e rating has already risen to the shocking level of 430 ppmv of CO2e! Worse yet, we will be at carbon 450 ppm in 10 years or less when we include atmospheric methane in our calculations.
To put this in a time-lapse perspective, from 1850 to about 1950, the increase in carbon pollution was steady at about 1 ppm per year. From 1950 to 2000, the increase rose to 2 ppm per year, and now in its current exponential curve, it is at about 3 ppm per year and rising rapidly toward 3-4 ppm per year. If carbon continues to rise in this exponential, nonlinear way, virtually unchecked by our ineffective previous actions, the increase could easily reach a level of 4 plus ppm per year by 2025.
Image via Stephen Stoft at zfacts.com
According to James Hansen one of the world's most important climate researchers, a carbon 450 ppm level would eventually correspond and develop into an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century and the end of human civilization as we’ve come to know it. Based on carbon ppm levels already in the system and reaching the 450 mark, this also means at least another 2.7° Celsius (4.9° Fahrenheit) global temperature increase beyond where we are now is the eventual and inescapable future reality.
This 2.7° Celsius would also be the most realistic minimal temperature increase to predict as part of any future planning over the next 10-30 years. Bear in mind that even this scenario applies only if everything goes perfectly and we cross no additional global warming tipping points.
Unfortunately, it is highly probable that because of our ongoing denial and delay in addressing escalating global warming, atmospheric carbon parts per million will most likely continue to rapidly rise beyond the carbon 450-550 ppm total, which translates to a 3° to 4° Celsius increase (5.4° to 7.2°+ Fahrenheit) up to as much as a 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) increase in average global temperature. (A 4° Celsius increase [7.2° Fahrenheit] in average global temperature would become “Hell on earth” as Mark Lynas, author of Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, has stated.)
Hansen’s projections for “ending human civilization as we know it” is not the same as mass human extinction as we approach the 5° or 6° Celsius (9° to 10.8° Fahrenheit) temperature levels. In Hansen’s 6° Celsius rise coming from eventually crossing the carbon 450 ppm mark, what would be considered normal, comfortable, or predictable daily life in developed nations will be severely impaired. In undeveloped nations, there will be a level of chaos and breakdown that will rapidly render most of these nations politically and economically unsustainable. As it is already occurring, the chaos of existing less-developed nations destabilized by factors such as war and the climate change emergency will affect the more developed and stable nations far beyond just the current massive migrations of those escaping the suffering.
In spite of all the media PR, 21 UN / IPCC international climate conferences, endless warnings from credible scientists over the last 30 years, and national reduction pledges and treaties, things are worsening in a nearly exponential progression (2,4,8,16, etc.). There is no way to deny we are not only losing the escalating global warming battle. Unfortunately, we are also losing it at a progressively faster rate so now global warming is close to being out of our meaningful control for the next 30-50 years. (For the precise definition of out-of-control global warming and how and why this happened, click here.)
Instead of enacting the needed changes when they were far easier, more gradual, and far less costly, we must now take radical, painful, and costly tough medicine if we are going to save the future. The changes that would have been inconvenient 30 years ago will now become nearly unbearable.
Some of today’s most disturbing global heating and climate change emergency facts
We are not receiving adequate accurate facts about how bad escalating global warming is now, or how bad it will become. The heavy fossil fuel lobbied major media conglomerates politely decline to alarm us about the real dangers of our out-of-control climate change emergency in order to allow the fossil fuel industry to continue business as usual.
Current atmospheric fossil fuel burning-related carbon ppm values are now at about 415. This is higher than at any other time in the last 1 million years (possibly higher than at any time in the last 25 million years). This new carbon pollution record represents an increase of 88 carbon ppm in the 55 years since David Keeling began making his revolutionary atmospheric carbon pollution measurements at Mauna Loa. (See graphs in this document.)
Carbon pollution accumulating in the atmosphere has been increasing even faster over the last few decades. It is now nearly certain that if we refuse to take immediate, effective measures to resolve global warming, future increases will happen at even faster rates.
Global average temperatures have the potential to rise far faster than what we normally experience. For example, about 9600 BC, in the Boreal climatic phase, global temperatures rose 7° C (12.6° F) in less than a decade, pushing the ice sheets into rapid collapse and sending sea levels soaring. (Ice sheets are already beginning to collapse
Our 40-year inability to control the climate change emergency and global heating emergency are due in part to:
The lack of national and international verifiable and enforceable international laws that would make continued large-scale carbon and methane pollution of the atmosphere a strongly punished activity or crime.
The physical time lags in developing and deploying the infrastructure needed for the new green energy technologies. As we are progressing now, it will likely take another 30-50 years.
- Click here to see more key reasons for what has caused our current out-of-control global warming and climate change emergency.
If everyone and every government simultaneously agreed to scale up green energy generation immediately and there were no budgetary or resource restrictions in completing this life-critical project, it would still take hundreds of years to put that infrastructure in place. (See this MIT stud for the details in this 400-year estimate.)
If escalating global warming and its consequent climate destabilization proceed to the levels currently being predicted, it will eventually cost the global society hundreds of trillions of dollars in disaster recovery, as well as soaring insurance rates, massive real estate losses and depreciation, and massive coastal and other infrastructure losses, in addition to the vast amount of human suffering and death.
Right now, most nations are struggling with debt and their economies are in trouble with anemic annual growth. How will many of these nations, particularly the weakest ones, remain politically or financially viable, stable, or even continue to exist if another 5% or more of their total GDP (the Stern Review) is drained off each year into the continually escalating costs of global warming-caused climate destabilization? Current estimates from a book called Climate Shock project all global warming consequences will cost 10 percent and maybe far more of the world’s total GDP by 2100. In the latter phases of out of control or irreversible global warming described in Climageddon, the book estimates it will require 30% of the world's GDP to stay up with the re-building and other costs.
The climate change emergency is already here! Its superstorms, flooding, seasonal disruptions, wildfires, heat waves, migrating insect infestations, and droughts will continue increasing in magnitude, frequency, and scale. According to a recent analysis from scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), "[t]he worst-case projections for global warming may be the most likely.”
The next battle now lies in keeping our near out of control global warming from rising to an extinction-level event where human-caused carbon dioxide and methane levels in the atmosphere push the global temperature increases to 4°-6° Celsius (7.2°-10.8° Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels and beyond.
An already “baked-in” future of higher temperatures no matter what we do
A 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) increase in global average temperature by the year 2100 has been the official estimate of the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC). But it is way too low and overly optimistic. This 2° Celsius IPCC estimate is based on the operating premise that everything happening in the very complex and highly interconnected climate system will always work perfectly as predicted, in our favor, and no more known or unknown climate tipping points will be crossed.
Planning for everything to go perfectly is the perfect plan for failure, and there's a dangerous global warming shocker hidden within these low-temperature estimates. The first wave of escalating global warming superstorms or "millennial storms" (storm severity levels that have not been seen for thousands or tens of thousands of years) will be coming much sooner than we are planning for. When you include crossing more of the critical global warming tipping points and adjust projections in evaluating the current climate data, it suggests all types of extreme weather such as millennial superstorms, super droughts, super floods, and super wildfires could begin replacing our current waves of extreme weather in as little as 15 to 30 years.
Unfortunately, there's more bad news. Even if we stopped emitting all carbon dioxide and methane greenhouse gases today, we face considerably more global warming than the IPCC has publicly stated. According to Michael Mann, Distinguished Professor of Meteorology at the University of Pennsylvania State, we are already on track for a total rise in temperature of 1.7° Celsius (about 3° Fahrenheit) in the northern hemisphere, no matter what we now do to slow or stop global warming. In part, this is because there is future global warming already “baked into” the warming pipeline.
This is what it is called “committed warming.” Committed warming is inevitable, delayed only by the lag time for the oceans to heat up, owing to the slow ocean warming response to greenhouse gases.
The temperature increase of 1.7° Celsius (3° Fahrenheit) is already committed. This is baked-in global warming and it is really bad news.
Worse yet, the computer modeling used to create the 1.7° Celsius prediction also does not include the possibility that we have unconsciously already crossed or could very soon cross more global warming tipping points. If that has happened or will happen soon, the calculation for already committed global warming could be significantly above 1.7° Celsius. We could rapidly move through an increase of 2° or 3° Celsius (3.6° to 5.4° Fahrenheit) and beyond.
Additionally, after all of the atmospheric fossil fuel-related soot is gone, global temperatures are estimated to go up an additional .2 to .5° Celsius (0.36°-1° Fahrenheit), depending upon the atmospheric soot levels in your area of the world.
This additional calculation for how the average global temperature will go up as we rapidly shut down the aerosol soot created by fossil fuel burning is significant. This implies that planning your personal or business future using only 1.7° Celsius (3° Fahrenheit) of already committed and “baked-in” average global warming is also a faulty and dangerous future planning assumption.
It would be far wiser to assume an increase in average global temperature of 1.9° to 2.2° Celsius (about 3.4° to 4° Fahrenheit) as a long-term planning starting point. While 1.9° to 2.2° Celsius is more realistic, it is still not as good as the most realistic 2.7° Celsius increase for longer-term planning. This is because the 1.7° to 2.2° Celsius (3° to 4° Fahrenheit) previous temperature planning starting point also does not include any calculations regarding crossing more global warming and climate system or subsystem tipping points, which is highly likely to happen.
To put this already committed, non-tipping point inclusive temperature range increase of 1.7° to 2.2° Celsius into another comparative perspective, the IPCC at the last Paris conference in December 2015 still pushed hard promoting that global warming should not rise above 1.5° Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit). This is because they already know a 1.5° Celsius increase heralds an unending chain of horrific disasters for many of the world’s poorest countries. Why the IPPC promoted a global temperature target that was below the already known baked-in increase is hard to comprehend, and it will be indirectly explained here.
According to Professor Mann, when we hit 405 parts per million (ppm) of carbon in the atmosphere, we have now committed ourselves to a 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) increase in global temperature. Now add in the fact that none of the above already committed global warming calculations except the 2.7°C (4.9° Fahrenheit) projection include any possibility that we have already unknowingly crossed or will cross more global warming tipping points. We are in deep trouble already!
From the preceding, it would be unrealistic to keep promoting that we can realistically keep the average global temperature increase below 2° Celsius. Yet, that is exactly what the IPCC promoted to world’s nations at its 2015 Paris conference in addition to promoting its lower 1.5° Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit) target.
It is time to face bitter facts. The battle to keep warming from rising less than 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) has been lost!
In reality, if we include crossing more tipping points we face a baked-in 2.7° degrees Celsius (4.9° Fahrenheit) average global temperature rise as we approach carbon 425 to 450 ppm. We need to immediately begin preparing for these severe temperature increases while we still have time!
It is also important to be aware that even though the 2.7° degrees Celsius temperature is already baked in and committed also because of previously mentioned momentum and inertia issues, it does not mean these higher temperatures will occur immediately. It could take a decade or more for these baked-in temperature rises to be fully realized.
Additionally, when we extrapolate from the IPCC’s own current worst-case projections using what you have learned so far, a 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) increase occurring much sooner than 2100 becomes a real probability. This eventual 6° Celsius temperature increase prediction is based on these highly probable assumptions:
We continue business as usual, increasing the carbon pollution of the atmosphere at our current exponentially rising levels of carbon 3-4+ ppm per year,
Methane continues rising as it has over the last several decades because of the fracking boom, big agribusiness, and other factors, and
We have unknowingly already crossed or will soon cross more known or unknown global warming tipping points within any of the critical systems or subsystems of the climate system. For example, in May of 2014, we crossed another dangerous climate tipping point when scientists discovered that the West Antarctic Ice Shelf has gone into an irreversible and escalating melt.
According to the climate author Mark Lynas, if we let our planet’s temperature increase by 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit), “it would cause a mass extinction of almost all life and probably reduce humanity to a few struggling groups of embattled survivors clinging to life near the poles.”
In order for humanity to endure, we now have no other prudent choice but to do whatever we can to try to lessen and slow the long-term pain of this emergency so that global warming does not make us extinct. We may still have enough time to prepare families, businesses, nations, and ourselves for the tremendous stress that escalating global warming will cause—but only if we begin preparing for it now!
Putting only a 2° Celsius temperature rise in perspective using carbon levels and temperature fluctuations from Earth’s past
Seeing the climate change emergency from as many perspectives as possible will help you better grasp the depth and seriousness of the emergency we are in. For example, the Earth’s geologic past not only verifies that specific outcomes of global warming have occurred, but also gives us vital information about what similar consequences will likely occur as we duplicate the carbon dioxide levels, atmospheric temperatures, and other conditions of our distant and not-so-distant past.
According to a 2015 paper in Science, about three million years ago:
The average global temperature was about 1.7°-2.7° Celsius (3°-5° Fahrenheit) warmer than today.
The Arctic regions of the planet were about 7° Celsius (12.6° Fahrenheit) warmer.
Carbon dioxide levels were about as high as today.
Sea levels stood at least 20 feet (6-7 meters) above today’s level.
In our more recent geological past, around 400,000 and 125,000 years ago, average global temperatures were respectively about 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) and about 1° Celsius (1.8° Fahrenheit) above pre-Industrial times. During those two separate time periods, the upper bounds for sea-level rise were estimated to be up to 42 feet higher (13 meters) than the present. As you can imagine, at those temperatures either of the sea level rises (20-foot or 42-foot) would be a nightmare for world shorelines and their populations if they were to occur today.
Unfortunately, that is exactly what we are racing toward—and beyond. According to the same Science article, even if we managed to limit average global warming to just 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit), sea levels may still eventually rise at least 20 feet (6 meters) above their current levels.
The illustration below will be useful for mid-range planning (the next 10-15 years) for any industry, individual, or nation whose future plans will be affected by the previously discussed consequences of escalating global warming. Keep in mind, this illustration with its estimated time frames does not include crossing any additional tipping points.
Why this climate change and global heating State of Emergency isn’t being discussed by our political leaders
To help you see where and why we are currently in a losing battle to end global warming, we have provided the following Keeling-styled graphs for the atmospheric carbon level data in different parts of this document.
Image via Robert A. Rohdes, Wikimedia commons.
The above graph shows variations in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during the last 400 thousand years. It also helps to illustrate the carbon pollution data progressing from the Industrial Revolution of the 1880s to the present day. Other data also show the carbon ppm levels for the last several hundred thousand to millions of years. This way, you can see the modern spike in today's carbon pollution emergency in a historical, and especially post-Industrial, context.
More carbon in the atmosphere equals more heat
It is important to notice in the graph above that the long-term average carbon parts per million (ppm) never rose much above 270 ppm until the Industrial Revolution. For hundreds of thousands of years, carbon ppm stayed in a general range significantly below where it is today. Only hundreds of millions of years ago were carbon ppm levels much higher, during Earth's turbulent developmental and volcanic periods.
Something has radically changed in carbon ppm atmospheric levels since the beginning of the fossil fuel-powered Industrial Revolution of the 1880s. For the first time in hundreds of thousands of years, we have now crossed the unprecedented carbon 400 ppm level. Today's carbon ppm 413+ level is now nearly double the carbon 200-270 ppm range it held consistently for hundreds of thousands of years. This radical change in such a short period of geological time can and will have serious consequences!
Even if we do not cross any other global warming tipping points, which avoidance is highly unlikely, just by extrapolation using the current exponential rise per year and cumulative carbon levels, we could be at carbon 550 ppm in 30-40 years...or sooner. If we hit carbon 550 ppm, which translates to a temperature increase range of about 3° to 4°+ Celsius increase (5.4° to 7.2°+ Fahrenheit), as it appears we will, this "seals the deal" on destructive changes for most life on Earth (as described in Phase 3 of the Climageddon Scenario).
Extrapolating from the carbon ppm and average global temperature graph shown below, it appears that in spite of everything that we are doing now to slow escalating global warming, the current global average temperature is increasing by approximately 1/2 degree for about every 25 additional parts per million of carbon going into the atmosphere.
Image via Stephen Stoft at zfacts.com
The above graph provides evidence that CO2 is a contributing cause of global warming. This ongoing or increasing fossil fuel use will increase carbon ppm, which then increases the average global temperature. This increased or decreased carbon ppm in the atmosphere appears to have a direct or near direct relationship to rising and falling temperature all the way back to
Earth's earliest times.
Image via Robert A. Rhodes, Wikimedia Commons.
In the next graph below, one can see carbon pollution levels hundreds of millions of years into our past. As you can extrapolate from the carbon ppm range disclosed near the bottom of the far lower left of the graph, modern life forms as we know them today appear to exist and function best when atmospheric carbon levels are quite low in about the 200-270 ppm range. Life on Earth was much different from the higher carbon levels seen hundreds of millions of years ago.(Here, COPSE, GEOCARB III, and Rothman illustrate the findings from geochemical models for tracking CO2 levels in the past. Abbreviations at the bottom stand for the Neogene, Paleogene, Cretaceous, Jurassic, Triassic, Permian, Carboniferous, Devonian, Silurian, Ordovician, and Cambrian periods in geologic history. Image via Robert A. Rohdes, Wikimedia Commons.)
How human systems contribute to the climate change and global heating State of Emergency
It would not be fair to discuss over 30 years of continuous global warming warnings without also describing some of the problems of inertia within our human systems. Inertia is defined as the resistance of any physical object to any change in its current state of motion (including changes to its speed, direction, or state of rest or motion).
Our current global society is locked into the grip of almost a century and a half of change resistance (inertia) that favors using more and more fossil fuel. Part of the reason for this resistance is that fossil fuel use directly or indirectly is also responsible for about one-third of the world's gross domestic product (GDP).
The fossil fuel industry engenders a powerful human system resistance to change that we will have to overcome in order to successfully change over to green energy generation systems. The fossil fuel industry is constantly fighting the needed evolution of our energy generation systems. But even if we ended all fossil fuel use today, it is estimated that it would take 30 to 50 years to replace all of the current fossil fuel generation and distribution infrastructure.
Unfortunately, there is nothing close to unanimous agreement to act now, and we don't have another 30 to 50 years to fight the resistance of various fossil-fueled nations and fossil fuel-related corporations. Therefore, it is completely fair to say that the fossil fuel industry resistance and inertia are significant factors explaining why after 30 years of warnings, global warming is actually getting worse and not better!
In addition to the inertia and resistance of the fossil fuel industry working against efforts to end the use of polluting fossil fuels, there are other significant human system resistance (inertia) factors for why global warming is escalating faster than ever before in spite of all previous warnings:
1) Human evolutionary psychology: We are designed to react to immediate and obvious threats with the flight or fight response. Escalating global warming is slow, almost invisible, and it is generally believed to be far off in the future. Also, for many individuals, it is so complex that it can't be comprehended as the single most serious international security threat of the 21st century.
2) Human political evolution: Human society has not yet evolved a global government with transnational enforcement and verification powers over all the member nations of our world. Global warming is a transnational problem that has to have a transnational solution.
3) Human legal evolution: Humanity has not evolved viable global courts to work out the inherent international justice issues relating to the developed countries that caused the pollution and will likely benefit from it in the short term. We really have no international justice process for dealing with the fact that undeveloped countries that didn't cause the pollution are expected to suffer nearly equally in the costs and efforts of resolving it.
4) Global political evolution: The designated world authority, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC), failing to properly educate global leaders on all critical global warming risks, along with providing significantly underestimated timetables, has dangerously diminished a global sense of collective urgency and public awareness. This has significantly reduced the demand for change even though strong warnings were initiated over 30 years ago.
There are other reasons why we have failed for 30 years and still face a daunting challenge to end the climate change emergency, which will be covered in detail here.
A difficult climate change truth
Before facing a difficult truth, it is important to review the definitions of climate and weather. Climate is the statistics of weather, usually over a 30-year interval. It is measured by assessing the patterns of variation in temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, precipitation, atmospheric particle count, and other meteorological variables in a given region over long periods of time. Climate differs from weather, in that weather only describes the short-term conditions of these variables in a given region. (From Wikipedia.)
Fossil fuel lobbyists like to intentionally confuse us by directing our attention to the far shorter time cycles of climate and weather, whereas global warming cycles occur over far longer time cycles (as seen in the graphs depicting hundreds, thousands, and millions of years.) When we compare the current global warming cycle and temperature range to past global warming cycles and temperature ranges rather than tiny 30-year climate cycles, we can see what's really happening and how dangerous global warming is to our future.
From the preceding, it is not difficult for any rational person to see that we are dealing with far more than garden-variety seasonal changes in the weather or the normal 30-year climate cycle. We are dealing with a full-blown and yet undeclared climate change emergency.
In truth, we have wasted over 30 years of valid warnings, and now there is no time left to make the gradual changes that we should have begun over 30 years ago. Immediate, radical, and painful changes must happen now. Our global warming emergency is not off in the future 25, 50, or 100 years from now as you have been deceived into believing. Our global warming emergency is now.
Here are the critical additional links to review to understand more about our current mass extinction event threat, its solutions, climate, and global warming's soon-arriving four extinction-provoking tipping points.
Once you have read the following critical additional materials to this article, you will understand the full spectrum of extinction dangers we are facing and you will be one of the most informed individuals concerning the honest nature and scope of our global warming extinction emergency.
First, click here for what you will need to know about our last practical and realistic chance to control our global warming futures and prevent extinction by achieving the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. These global targets are not at all what you have been told by our fossil fuel-influenced media. This article will also give you detailed information about what happens when we cross the three extinction-evoking tipping points of carbon 425 ppm, carbon 500 ppm, and carbon 600 ppm.
Click here for a quick overview of how the currently unavoidable global warming mass extinction threat has now been eclipsed by the very real threat of total extinction as we quickly pass through the three major global warming tipping points within the next 30-30 years.
And finally, click here to overview and select from the solution action options available to you to prepare for, adapt to, and manage this emergency in the Job One for Humanity Plan. This way you will be able to prepare and adapt wisely so that you survive and thrive through what is now unavoidable in global warming consequences.
If you understand enough about this emergency, please sign the petition to declare a Climate Change and Global Warming Extinction Emergency and then start the Job One Plan to resolve this mess as best we can.
Climate Change and Global Heating Emergency Summary:
In the above graphs of this document, the predictions for increased carbon ppm levels and temperature, unfortunately, does not also include: the continued likelihood that more carbon ppm (about 3-4 ppm per year,) will enter the atmosphere each year due to increasing population and fossil fuel use, causing an ever-faster rate of average global temperature increase, or the effects of the additional methane going into the atmosphere because of existing and new natural gas fracking, all of the existing leaks in methane storage and transportation systems, and big agribusiness, or calculations for more climate tipping points that will be crossed as the atmosphere heats up in a vicious self-reinforcing cycle and a positive feedback loop.
Despite 35 years of warnings from credible scientists and compelling scientific evidence, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane pollution have only worsened.
We are already in an unacknowledged global warming State of Emergency.
Do not be fooled by what you read about global warming reduction progress or fossil fuel reduction commitments in fossil fuel-lobbied and influenced mainstream media. The fossil fuel industry wants to keep making money and polluting our atmosphere without charge.
In a nutshell, the climate change emergency is due to:
- today’s carbon ppm level of about 413 ppm doubling from the carbon 200-270 range it held consistently for hundreds of thousands of years,
- carbon ppm levels rising exponentially at the greatest levels since the Industrial Revolution, and
- we are poised to cross more global warming tipping points, moving us ever closer to the extinction phases of the Climageddon Scenario. In effect, our climate change emergency should really be called our climate change extinction emergency or the global warming extinction emergency.
According to James Hansen, even a carbon 450 ppm level (which will occur in about 10-15 years at present carbon pollution rates) would eventually correspond to an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century and the end of human civilization as we’ve come to know it.
Our current global warming extinction emergency marks the end of the climate stability that has allowed humanity and humanity’s ancestors to flourish for hundreds of thousands of years.
- We need to get busy reaching the last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
- If we do not reach or come very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, we not only will suffer a global warming-caused mass extinction event within the next 30-50 years, we also will trigger a total extinction event within the next 50-70 years.
- To reach or come close to the life-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, we must prepare and adapt in order to survive and thrive. The most effective way to do that is to begin the Job One for Humanity Plan to manage the climate change emergency.
- Click here to see where we are today on the Climate Change and Global Warming Doomsday Clock.
The essential positive perspective on the above disruptive global heating and climate change news
Despite the many types of challenging global warming consequences and past fossil fuel reduction mistakes that we now face, we can still learn from their feedback, and we can adapt and evolve to make life as good and as happy as is possible. No matter how severe the coming global warming consequences might become, if we wisely play the remaining cards that we have been dealt with, we can still achieve the best remaining possible outcomes.
We can yet make a significant difference to reduce global fossil fuel use to stabilize and save the future of humanity by executing a comprehensive reduction and survival plan like the Job One for Humanity global warming action plan.
We can still maintain the perseverance needed to succeed in this monumental task by regularly reviewing the many benefits which will occur as we work successfully on this project together. Although we are now in what could be called a Great Global Collapse process triggered by accelerating global warming, this collapse process will eventually offer equal to (or even greater than) long-term benefits in the form of a potential Great Rebirth beyond the coming suffering and loss.
First on this page (that has been read almost 2 million times,) and then this other critical global warming benefit page, you will find the many often hidden surprise benefits of the global warming challenge. You also will find a framework and the possibilities for what could be called a post-collapse Great Rebirth, no matter how bad the collapse process gets.
We can persevere through this time of emergency. We just need to remember that our greatest challenges are also the seeds of our greatest opportunities.
We are engaged in nothing less than the most critical and meaningful evolutionary opportunity, challenge, and adventure in human history! It is our last opportunity to slow down the mass human extinction threat by getting close to these 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Only reaching these targets will fully remove the total extinction threat. In reaching these targets, we also significantly improve many of the world's other 12 major challenges.
Get started today on the Job One for Humanity global warming reduction and survival plan. Help save and salvage as much of humanity and our beautiful civilization as is possible.
Key Recommended Additional Reading
2. What are the 10 most dangerous things most people do not understand about the climate change emergency?
Are You Still Feeling Sad, Angry, or Anxious About Climate Change and Global Heating? Here is what to do.
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Start feeling better with the tips that keep us from feeling overwhelmed.
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A still deeper dive into the science
This is optional reading.
In order to help you better visualize the global warming tipping point risks, as well as why we are not effectively acting to end the extreme risks of the global warming State of Emergency, we strongly recommend you view The Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See 2. It has been watched almost 7 million times. Click here to watch that video now.
If you are still not yet convinced we are really in a global warming state of emergency, or you want to see more detailed science on this issue, please click here.
Please send this article to politicians and social media all over the world. Ask your politicians what they are doing to prevent the coming mass extinction of most of humanity by mid-century?
Ask them why they are not adequately managing the greatest threat multiplier and global problem amplifier of the 21st century by enacting the governmental steps described here!
(This page is derived substantially from the 2016 book, Climageddon, The Global Warming Emergency and How to Survive It. It has been updated with new climate research since 2016 as applicable. Climageddon is Available on Amazon.)
(Please Note: This page defines the climate change emergency and global warming emergency (aka climate emergency, climate extinction emergency, global warming extinction emergency, Holocene extinction, sixth mass extinction event, and the climate crisis.Sign up
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