Last Updated 11.30.23
Overview
Unfortunately, some of the most dangerous facts of global warming are also the least understood by most of humanity. In this case, what we do not understand, if left unmanaged, will eventually kill almost everything!
The documentation for the following misunderstood facts is in their full explanations further down this article. Here is a quick overview of the most misunderstood and dangerous facts about climate change:
1. Whenever you hear national politicians promise net-zero by 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, or 2070, know that it equals mass human extinction occurring by mid-century or sooner,
2. We are already in a state of runaway global warming because we have wasted four decades when we could have prevented this. Climate tipping points and climate feedback loops are "stacking up" on each other, multiplying our climate risks and peril levels.
3. The severity, frequency, and scale of global warming consequences occurring within 3-9 years will start rising exponentially,
4. Survival-critical climate and global warming tipping points are already being crossed,
5. Crossed climate tipping points can have both linear predictable cause-and-effect relationships and dangerous and currently unpredictable nonlinear cause-and-effect relationships.
6. If we do not come close to the life-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets in time to slow down our climate change emergency, without fail, Mother Nature will do it for us by painfully taking us beyond mass human extinction into total extinction!
7. In regards to fixing the climate extinction emergency, we are currently acting much like the experimental frogs who boil themselves to death floating in a slowly heating pot that they could easily escape.
8. We are long past the point of individual actions alone, saving us. Only worldwide governmental action and mass mobilization to enforce immediate, radical, and painful fossil fuel cuts can save us from extinction.
9. The current global warming emergency and its future are far worse than the government, the media or the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] are telling us. The world's leading authority on climate change, the IPCC, is not telling the governments or us what we need to know to save ourselves from total extinction because of the many political, prediction modeling, and summary report problems within the IPCC itself. Among the IPCC's many and most serious climate prediction problems is the climate computer modeling "Perfect Day" problem.
10. The climate change momentum and human inertia paradoxes and dilemmas. Anything we do now to reduce fossil fuel use will not show much of a benefit for 20-30 years, and people are impatient for results. Because the climate system has so much accumulated momentum and inertia within it already (about 20-30 years worth), we are rapidly running out of the little remaining time we have left to save ourselves.
Two bonus misunderstood facts:
11. How accelerating climate change consequences will affect worldwide democracies and progressive nations.
12. The most significant and most dangerous climate tipping point and global catastrophe is the Thwaites "doomsday glacier" collapse. It is just about to happen. When it does happen, it changes everything for humanity's future in an instant.
Here is the full explanation and documentation for why these highly misunderstood facts are true and vital for your future climate change planning
Fact 1: Whenever you hear national politicians promise carbon net-zero by 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, or 2070, know that it equals mass human extinction occurring over the next several decades
Net-zero carbon emissions means that we are not adding any more carbon to the atmosphere than we are taking out of it. However, it does not mean that we are reducing our current global levels of carbon emissions beyond where they are today.
Net-zero carbon dioxide emissions theoretically can be achieved by balancing the local, regional, national, or global carbon dioxide emissions with its removal. This net-zero process is conducted in two ways:
a. by directly eliminating and removing those carbon emissions from society (the most successful and proven method) or,
b. by what is called carbon offsetting. (Carbon offsetting can be done in numerous ways, but as you will read below, it is currently the least effective way to resolve the global warming emergency. It is the method most often proposed by politicians because it is so vague, difficult to verify, and can be falsely manipulated in many ways to produce little to nothing. It is a colossal understatement is to say that using carbon offsetting as the primary focus to achieve net-zero carbon emissions is a massive danger for society.)
Honest, independent, and non-politicized climate researchers have been trying to tell the world for over 50 years humanity is facing extinction. These researchers have been begging us to begin immediate global fossil fuel use reductions to come as close as possible to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets to survive the coming extinction threat.
The 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets are not anything like or close to the fossil fuel industry-sponsored national net-zero carbon neutral targets, which nations are saying they will reach by 2070, 2060, 2050, 2040, or even 2030! For instance, India has pledged it will be net-zero by 2070, and China promised it will be net-zero by 2060. With much theatrical media coverage, Saudi Arabia also announced it will become net-zero emission by 2060. (Including the US at net zero by 2050, India and China make up the world's three largest carbon emitters.)
But, there are big secrets concerning the net-zero carbon-neutral pledges. They, too, are feel-good illusions that do not produce anything even close to what is being promised.
These net-zero pledges are based predominantly on carbon offsetting. A carbon offset is supposed to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions or other greenhouse gases by compensating for emissions produced elsewhere. Unfortunately, carbon offsets are very difficult to verify, have considerable incentives for fraud, and are easy to fake by both purchasers and the suppliers of such carbon offsets. Additionally, carbon offsets have either no penalties or weak penalties for fraud.
James Hansen, the first climate scientist who warned us unchecked global warming would lead to our extinction, has described carbon offsets as "modern-day indulgences, sold to an increasingly carbon-conscious public to absolve their climate sins." Carbon offsets may also be interpreted as greenwashing. This is especially true in the case of most corporate commitments, which do not include actionable goals and schedules that implicate that their 'net-zero' emission goals are anything more than good publicity.
Theoretically, carbon offsets were meant to support projects that reduce the emission of greenhouse gases in the short or long term. A common offset project type is renewable energy, such as wind farms, biomass energy, biogas digesters, or hydroelectric dams. Other offsets include:
- Energy efficiency projects like efficient cookstoves.
- The destruction of industrial pollutants or agricultural byproducts.
- The destruction of landfill methane.
- Forestry projects.
But that is not what is really happening. Instead, carbon offsets have become another clever way for nations to make fabulous public net-zero pledges, which facilitate hiding their lack of actual fossil fuel reduction from their citizens and the world.
In addition to the fraud-friendly carbon offset issue, most net-zero carbon-neutral pledges are back-end loaded, meaning most of the cuts are to come well after 2025. (Our last chance fossil fuel reduction target for keeping global warming under our control.)
Most of these "emperors' new clothes" pledges also assume steady major technological advances in currently non-existent or unproven technologies or outright revolutionary tech breakthroughs that will somehow reach the required levels of development and scale to save us at the last moment. These net-zero carbon-neutral pledges are just another form of illusion keeping us from making the real and hard choices. These pledges also specifically exclude all fossil fuel exports from figuring into the national accounting and calculations for the net-zero pledge goals. As you can see, net-zero carbon-neutral pledges have more loopholes than a Swiss cheese has holes.
Unfortunately, there is yet more to the net-zero carbon-neutral illusion:
a. Tracing the history of illusions in climate policy from 1988 to 2021, climate scientists James Dyke, Robert Watson, and Wolfgang Knorr "[arrive] at the painful realization that the idea of net-zero has licensed a recklessly cavalier "burn now, pay later" approach which has seen carbon emissions continue to soar!
b. In his 16-page report, Dangerous Distractions, economist Marc Lee states that "'Net-zero" has the potential to be a dangerous distraction that reduces the political pressure to achieve actual emission reduction." "A net-zero target means less incentive to get to 'real zero' emissions from fossil fuels, an escape hatch that perpetuates business as usual and delays more meaningful climate action."
c. Current net-zero policies will not keep warming within the UN's 1.5°C temperature rise target because they were never intended to. They were and still are driven by a need to protect business as usual, not the climate. If we want to keep people safe, then large and sustained cuts to carbon emissions need to happen now. The time for wishful thinking is over.
d. In March 2021, Tzeporah Berman, chair of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, argued that the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty would be a more genuine and realistic way to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement than the "Net-zero" approach. She claimed the net-zero approach is "delusional and based on bad science."
(The above four statements were found on Wikipedia.)
The current net-zero pledges by the world's top fossil fuel users and producers are telling and sadly funny. If we keep going as we are now, by 2050 - 2070, there will be few, if any, of us left to see if any nation even fulfilled its ridiculously "far too little, far too late" net-zero pledges.
The toothless, unenforceable, and vague net-zero pledges should be seen as nothing more than media bla, bla, bla. They are great theatrics for the pledging nations on the world stage.
The nations loudly promoting their net-zero pledges also helps hide the truth that the world's top 20 carbon emitters have made no commitments to directly and immediately cut their national fossil fuel use!
The correct 2025 targets now need to be enacted to compensate for 50 years of inaction. They will require tremendous sacrifice, suffering, and hardship for all the world's people, industries, and nations.
These 2025 global targets require that the world's developed nations enforce and come close to a 75% total reduction in ALL global fossil fuel use by 2025. In addition, these 2025 targets include lesser climate justice-adjusted targets for undeveloped countries, which did not play a major role in creating the global warming emergency. These 2025 national fossil fuel reductions of 75% include China and India.
To understand more about why government-driven and corporate-driven carbon net-zero programs are so dangerous to your near-term future survival, first read about what happens as we cross the first global warming extinction tipping point in the next 3-9 years, then read about the primary and secondary consequences of crossing this extinction-evoking tipping point.
If you want to review additional climate science on why about half of humanity will go extinct by mid-century, click here. We want you to have all of the science and analysis behind our half of humanity going extinct by mid-century statements. Hence, you will know that the many painful and difficult changes you will soon need to make are genuinely warranted.
If you learn best through videos
Here are two funny and informative net-zero and climate conference failure videos that are entertaining and powerful yet, still underestimate the rapidly approaching extinction dangers we all now face:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FqXTCvDLeo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIyKmqEdgR4&t=57s
Aiming for net-zero carbon using carbon offsets is also much like the funny, powerful, and massively shared article by an Australian drinker who promises to get to net-zero alcohol intake by 2050. Click here to see this five short paragraph, highly relevant article that also ties together much of what is being said above.
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Fact 2. Because we have wasted decades in ineffective climate actions, we are now in a state of runaway global heating and it is now too late to prevent the extinction of half of humanity by 2050. But we can still prevent our total extinction.
Climate tipping points and climate feedback loops are "stacking up" on each other, multiplying our climate risks and peril levels.
Click here to see the science to understand why the term runaway global heating is painfully accurate.
If you want to review additional climate science on why about half of humanity will go extinct by mid-century, click here. We want you to have all of the science and analysis behind our half of humanity going extinct by mid-century statements. Hence, you will know that the many painful and difficult changes you will soon need to make are genuinely warranted.
Fact 3: The severity, frequency, and scale of global warming consequences occurring will soon start rising exponentially starting in about 3-9 years (2025-2031.)
Click here to see the science to understand why we only have 3 to 9 years left to control global heating, but only if we are very, very lucky.
Fact 4: Now that critical global warming tipping points are already being crossed, many climate-related systems (like the Arctic sea ice, melting glaciers, oxygen-producing plankton, etc.) will also collapse quickly (usually completely or near completely!)
Click here to see all 11 of the major climate tipping points.
Fact 5: Crossed tipping points can have both linear cause-and-effect relationships as well as dangerous and currently unpredictable nonlinear cause-and-effect relationships.
These nonlinear relationships can occur between global warming tipping points and human and biological system tipping points (economy, politics, mass species die-offs, war, and conflict) as well as within and between any other part of the climate system and its subsystems. The presence of counter-intuitive, nonlinear tipping point and system relationships mean that causes and effects within the climate systems and subsystems are sometimes not logically connected, clear, or predictable.
This means that within a complex adaptive system like the climate, an area that happens to be a part of its system or its subsystems can create an effect in some other completely different climate system or subsystem where there seems to be no apparent cause and effect relationship between the two climate systems or subsystems. The huge danger here is that if a global warming tipping point triggers a nonlinear reaction in another climate or human system or subsystem, we could quickly find ourselves caught in a gigantic and uncontrollable catastrophic situation without ever being able to predict or prepare for it.
Never forget that a complex adaptive system such as the climate reacts with its subsystems in both predictable and unpredictable ways. In the illustration below, an action X in climate system A causes the obvious linear effect Y in climate system B, but it can also cause a seemingly unconnected nonlinear XY reaction in climate system C. It is this nonlinear unpredictability in other interconnected and interdependent climate systems which also should cause us great concern as we add more fossil fuel carbon to the atmosphere.
Fact 6: If we do not make the required 2025 global fossil fuel reductions in time to fix the global warming extinction emergency, without fail, Mother Nature will painfully do it for us!
Right now, no matter what we do, much of humanity (51% or more) will die by mid-century because currently, we are ridiculously far from meeting the critical 2025 global targets. (This has been explained on this page and this page.)
Worse yet, if we do not get close to the 2025 targets, Mother Nature will take over and keep raising the global temperature until most or all of humanity (50 to 90+ percent) goes extinct and the Earth is back to its optimal human carrying capacity.
Please keep in mind that if we miss the last-chance 2025 fossil fuel reduction opportunity, Mother Nature will execute her immutable physics and mathematics climate laws to take the dominant control of our global warming future. Humanity will then be thrown into the back seat of a planetary "car," rapidly accelerating towards the cliff to Climageddon.
If we fail to get close to the 2025 global reduction targets, and Mother Nature is forced to create a painful global warming solution for our unconscionable failures; hopefully, she will leave a few of us alive so that we can learn the harsh lessons needed to rebuild a new world more in balance with nature. (Click here to read the interesting way how Mother Nature will save us from ourselves and prevent total human extinction.)
(Click here to see the four extinction-triggering climate tipping points that will be the main tools used by Mother Nature to solve global warming for us if we do not do it for ourselves.)
Fact 7: We are much like the experimental frogs who boil to death floating in a slowly heating pot that they could easily escape.
Our ape ancestors have left us with mental and emotional hardwiring that does not recognize or respond well to distant, complex, or slow-moving threats. Will enough of us understand the heating pot we have put ourselves into, in time to still do something about it? We will know soon; either by 2025 or soon after we have passed the atmospheric carbon level of 425-450 parts per million.
To help illustrate how dangerous our current climate situation is, please review the atmospheric carbon CO2 graph in parts per million below. We also are currently adding an additional 3 carbon parts per million to our atmosphere each year. So, you do not have to be Albert Einstein to do the simple math to see how bad things are right now for us soon crossing the carbon 425-450 tipping point!
At this point, we strongly recommend that you watch this video by a respected climate researcher on runaway climate change. It will help illustrate how everything above fits together. This video has many clear and helpful slides.
Fact 8: We are long past the point of individual actions alone saving us. Only worldwide governmental action and mass mobilization to enforce immediate, radical, and painful fossil fuel cuts can save us from extinction.
(Click here to see what our governments need to do. What limited actions we can take as individuals or businesses is found at the bottom of this page.)
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Fact 9: The world's leading authority on climate change, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC,] is not accurately telling our governments what they need to know to save us from total extinction because of the IPCC's "Perfect Day" problem.
Our governments are in serious climate risk analysis trouble because they rely upon the IPCC's "authoritative" climate consequence scenario projections and remedies. Moreover, the world's military, intelligence agencies, hedge funds, investment banks (like Goldman Sachs,) stock and commodity markets, foundations, think tanks, national and international reserve banks, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Economic Forum all use the same IPCC climate research, predictions, and remedies for their climate risk analysis.
All of the previously mentioned entities are being dangerously weakened by what is known as the IPCC's climate computer modeling "Perfect Day" problem.
The Perfect Day problem and how it works
The IPCC uses computer modeling to predict future climate consequences and calculate how much fossil fuel we must reduce globally to keep ourselves safe. Every 3 to 5 years, the IPCC creates 4-7 updated best to worst climate prediction scenarios and what we must do to prevent them from occurring.
The governments, organizations, corporations, and individuals that rely upon these IPCC climate scenarios to create their internal climate risk analyses are being told by the IPCC and their governments these climate scenarios are reasonably accurate projections of probable future climate conditions. But, unfortunately, the truth is they are far from it.
The IPCC's climate computer models actually reflect "Perfect Day" climate scenarios far more than they reflect more probable climate scenarios. The IPCC's climate computer models are plagued with this "Perfect Day" problem because they seldom include most of the following critical climate modeling factors. These are the critical climate-related but missing factors that regularly and routinely occur both within and between the complex adaptive systems within our climate's multiple systems and subsystems.
The IPPC's climate computer models and multiple predictive scenarios still fail to capture:
a. almost all of the primary and secondary tipping points within and between the climate system and its subsystems.
b. most of the powerful self-reinforcing feedback loops within and between the climate systems and their subsystems.
c. most of the non-linear cause and effect relationships within and between the climate systems and their subsystems. (Non-linear cause and effect relationships are a regular aspect of the behavior of complex adaptive systems.)
d. many of the cause and effect interconnections and critical interdependencies within and between the climate system and its subsystems. And,
e. many critical points of no return within and between the climate systems and their subsystems. (These crucial points of no return help signal and predict coming tipping points, and most often, dangerous system crashes and collapses that occur after a tipping point is crossed.)
The result of omitting the essential a-e factors above from climate computer models is what you get is more like a Perfect Day prediction scenario, where either none or far too few of the a-e factors are accounted for within the computer-modeled climate predictions.
The crucial thing to know about items a - e above is that they embrace thousands of essential and utterly unaccounted-for climate factors that are also at play in creating reliable and probable climate predictions and risk assessments. Moreover, many of the climate factors listed in a-e above are so powerful that just omitting a single one can radically alter the trajectory and usefulness of any of the IPCC's current climate prediction scenarios or suggested remedies.
For example, suppose the IPCC has predicted that the average global temperature will rise to 2 degrees Celcius above pre-industrial levels by 2040 in one of their multiple prediction scenarios. Now factor in that they did not add to that computer model essential tipping points, feedback loops, or other non-linear cause and effect factors within the climate system and its subsystems. In that case, this a-e omission could quickly move their predicted average global temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius by 2040 (with all of its associated risks and consequences) to far more than 2 degrees Celsius far sooner than 2040!
Worse yet, the world's political, corporate, and the leaders of the other organizations mentioned earlier do not know about the Perfect day issue, which is that the IPCC predictions and their remedial climate recommendations do not reliably computer model the contexts, relationships, processes, and many ongoing transformations within the interacting climate, human and biological systems, and subsystems.
This "Perfect Day" problem means that the REAL climate risk and threat probabilities for humanity's climate future are being grossly underestimated! Unfortunately, this also means that our governments, largest corporations, and the leaders of the other organizations mentioned earlier are ALL currently operating on grossly inadequate climate risk assessments. As a result, within these organizations, our current climate condition's actual risk and threat levels and its fundamental uncertainties are far higher than what they understand and what we are being told. Consequently, we are currently not managing or preparing for our actual climate risks and uncertainties.
At Job One, we estimate that if you take all of the factors in a-e above (and all the IPCC's many other political, prediction modeling, and summary report problems described in the additional links at the end of this page), we should treat the IPCC's current predictions and climate remedies as being underestimated on the average by about 30-60%. This means we are underestimating both the severity and frequency of climate consequences and when these climate consequences will arrive by about 30-60%.
If one makes these 30-60% reasonable allowances for non-perfect day climate items in a-e above and the other IPPC problems linked at the end of this page, the world's governments and corporations should be panicking.
On the other hand, if they were making appropriate allowances for the many a-e missing climate factors and risks, the corporations listed previously would demand our governments immediately declare an international climate extinction emergency. They would also demand that our governments cooperate globally to enforce the fossil fuel reductions needed to at least save some small portion of humanity. (If you would like to see the horrific chain of climate consequences with adjusted timelines when making allowances for the IPPC's problems, click here.)
But, here is the really bad news about the climate system factors listed in a-e above. As the climate continues to heat, the climate and its subsystems will become more interactive, agitated, and unstable, and you will see many more of the a-e climate system factors occurring, causing greater and greater climate disruption.
Imagine these a-e climate system factors interacting within the climate and churning and boiling like the water in a pressure cooker as you turn up the heat. Unfortunately, as our temperatures continue to rise, the a-e climate factors above will also occur at ever faster rates. This escalating rise in temperature will also create significantly more future climate predictive uncertainty. This will then lessen our ability to develop helpful risk analysis as the climate worsens.
Knowing about this inherent dilemma of diminishing predictive power as temperatures rise helps let us know that we must prevent the climate system from EVER crossing this first extinction-triggering tipping point. If we cross this extinction-triggering tipping point, global warming will move into a runaway mode where reliable climate consequence predictions and timeframes will be all but impossible to construct.
Because of the Perfect Day problem and so much missing from the IPCC's computer climate modeling, any organization that uses the IPCC's data must immediately reevaluate their climate risks and adjust them at least 30-60% to the negative. With this new modeling problem information, these organizations will then be able to create a far more realistic climate risk analysis for their specific operations and conditions.
The biggest danger of the IPCC Perfect Day problem
The real climate change risk and threat level to all entities listed above is far beyond what they believe and are telling themselves, their citizens, or their clients. This serious risk analysis problem is not just dangerous. It will not only be very costly over time, but it also will likely turn into a serious legal liability for those entities as their citizens and clients discover the climate risk levels they were advised about were grossly underestimated.
The Perfect Day problem is also crippling our ability to find and use the correct collective climate change management strategies needed to save humanity itself. Because of the IPCC's Perfect Day problem, we are not dealing with the actual climate change risks appropriately and rationally.
As a result, we are operating on incorrect climate change risk and threat assessments far below what they genuinely are. And that will be the final recipe for a soon-arriving collective mass extinction.
The climate change risk analysis the world is operating on from the IPCC makes the world think it still has many decades left to fix the climate change emergency and prevent extinction when at best, it only has about another 3-9 years. Yet, the IPCC continues to sell the world their grossly incomplete "Perfect Day" climate change prediction and remedy computer models and scenarios as reliable and probable representations of our climate future when they are grossly inadequate and underestimated!
We believe that when the entities listed above redo their climate risk analysis using the information on this website and other websites critical of IPCC climate work, and which also includes the climate factors listed in a -e above, they will discover the following:
- We are currently at a level of extreme climate change risk. We passed high climate risk decades ago.
- When we cross the atmospheric carbon threshold of carbon 425 to 450 parts per million (ppm), we have entered the climate risk zone of unavoidable extinction for much of humanity by 2050.
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When we cross the atmospheric carbon threshold of carbon 450 to 500 ppm, we have entered the climate risk zone of near-total to total human extinction beginning as soon as 2070 or sooner. (Click here to discover why total human extinction is not realistic or probable, and the worst humanity will experience is near-total extinction (50 to 90+% of humanity going extinct.)
As you can see from the illustration above, for the last 65 years, atmospheric carbon levels have been getting worse even faster. As a result, we are about 3-9 years away from moving into the climate risk zone of unavoidable extinction for much of humanity by 2050.
Building a plan, a risk analysis, or a climate scenario on everything going perfectly has always been the perfect plan for failure. Unfortunately, because of the above, our world is in a far deeper climate change extinction emergency than it believes it is in.
And finally, there is another way to grasp the dire danger of the IPCC's Perfect Day problem. Ask yourself, when was the last time everything went perfectly according to your projected perfect plan?
What can you do about the Perfect Day problem which is drastically impeding our progress on executing effective climate solutions?
1. If you have any contacts with power at any of the organizations listed on this page, you can email them a copy of this article. It would help if you also referred them to this page. This page makes considerably better (but still not perfect) allowances for the IPCC's Perfect Day problem by more realistically adjusting climate consequence scenarios and timeframes to include and make allowances for more of the above a-e factors.
Here are the key organizations to reach out to so they can update their internal critical climate risk analysis, so they become a better reflection of today's actual climate reality. You will be doing them a favor! Unfortunately, operating on the IPCC's flawed climate prediction scenarios for their internal climate risk analysis will eventually embarrass them. It could also expose them to severe legal liability for incorrect actions or incorrect advice.
This risk updating process may also assist them in doing what is logical and necessary to help better manage our climate extinction emergency. There may be other entities you will think of as well:
World governments, the world's military, intelligence agencies, hedge funds, investment banks (like Goldman Sachs,) stock and commodity markets, foundations, think tanks, national and international reserve banks, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Economic Forum and corporations dealing with essential commodities and infrastructure needed for the future.
2. Get started with the Job One for Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan.
Other critical IPCC consequence prediction and timetable problems that rapidly need to be adjusted for in future government and corporate climate risk analysis
1. Click here to see the four most crucial extinction-triggering tipping points that must be factored into every adjusted future climate risk analysis.
2. Click here to see how the accelerating primary and secondary consequences of climate change interact with and worsen humanity's 11 other major global crises.
3. Click here to see the risk analysis adjusted 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and why we must get close to a 75% reduction in total global fossil fuel use (oil, natural gas, coal, etc.) by 2025, not the far, far less net-zero emission levels they have pledged by 2050 or 2040! (In the technical notes at the bottom of the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction specification page, you will see each calculation and compensation for the various factors that make up the required correct global fossil fuel reduction numbers.)
4. In addition to the "Perfect Day" problem previously described, you will find additional essential links on the checkered history of the IPCC climate consequence predictions and research problems below. These links will provide a valuable context for the relationships, processes, and climate research transformations going on within the IPPC.
You will learn precisely how the IPCC constructs and calculates its climate consequence risk scenarios and recommended climate change remedies. Unfortunately, you will also discover that there are many other serious calculation and process problems within the IPCC in addition to the Perfect Day problem. The additional problems below further call into question the reliability and risk analysis usefulness of the IPCC's current prediction scenarios and climate remedies.
Click here to understand the long-term history of the IPCC underestimating the consequences, timeframes, and the needed global fossil fuel reduction targets by as much as 20-40% or more.
Click here to see precisely how the IPCC "cooked the books" and grossly skewed the current IPCC global fossil fuel reduction calculations by including unproven and non-existent "carbon sucking unicorn" technology into their projections.
Click here to see the eleven key climate change tipping points that have been mostly excluded from the IPCC calculations on how much fossil fuel use we must reduce each year globally.
Click here to see the four key reasons why the IPCC's 26 global climate conferences have failed to produce results or legitimate global fossil fuel reduction targets.
The global warming emergency and its future are far worse than the government, the media, or the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] are telling us.
(Click here to see just how much worse things will become and how fast.)
Fact 10: The climate change momentum and human inertia paradoxes and dilemmas. Anything we do now to reduce fossil fuel use will not show much of a benefit for 20-30 years, and people are impatient for results.
Because the climate system has so much of both intrinsic heat-building momentum and human inertial (resistance to getting off fossil fuels) within it already (about 20-30 years worth), we are stuck with the current global heating level that was created 20-30 years ago. This is equally true for those who live 20-30 years from now. They will experience the global heating we have caused because of the levels of greenhouse gasses we have added to the atmosphere.
This long time lag for seeing results makes it even more challenging to convince people why they have to make painful, radical sacrifices today to reduce our global fossil fuel levels to get as close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as is possible to prevent a mass human extinction 20-30 years from now.
Most people do not understand the tremendous heat and cooling inertia already locked into the climate system because they also do not understand the physics of inertia.
They do not understand that because of climate inertia, whatever fossil fuel reductions we make today, the positive consequences of those reductions will not show up for 20-30 years. The same holds true for any radical increase in fossil fuel use we make today. Those negative consequences will also take 20-30 years to manifest.
There is a 20-30-year buffer of powerful climate inertia that will continue to act as a slowing brake on the accelerating climate change consequences until that breaking effect of this climate inertia is finally overwhelmed by the increasing temperatures, crossed climate tipping points, and feedbacks. From 2024 onward, the consequences of climate change will unfold steadily and then increase dramatically, even near exponentially, in speed, intensity, and frequency as the next 2-3 decades pass.
When someone tells you that global climate collapse will happen in the next few years, they are boldly telling you that they do not understand climate change inertia.
As you can see from the illustration above, we are already in deep trouble. We need to reduce global fossil fuel use and greenhouse gases now and radically.
Measuring the most dangerous greenhouse gases of atmospheric carbon [CO2,] methane [C4,] and nitrous dioxide [No2] are the best ways to measure the increasing threat level of global heating consequences. These measurements are also one of the best ways to predict future global heating and temperature levels.
In the illustration below, on the left vertical axis are atmospheric measuring levels for both carbon and nitrous dioxide in parts per million [ppm.] On the right vertical axis, you see the measuring level for atmospheric methane in parts per billion [ppb.] Across the bottom of the illustration is the last 2,000+ years.
The red, blue, and black lines moving from left to right across the illustration tell the painful story of human history and the pollution of our atmosphere. The illustration clearly shows what happened when humanity began the fossil fuel-powered industrial revolution in the late 1700s to early 1800s.
For more information on the processes of climate change and global heating, click here.
Fact 11. What our accelerating climate consequences will do to democracies and progressive nations
Most people are not prepared for how our many intensifying global warming consequences will devolve our political systems to more primitive forms.
As the climate consequences and the climate emergency continues to worsen, almost all governments worldwide will eventually have to declare martial law. The human rights many of us take for granted will have to be rescinded because of what the swift action of the accelerating emergency will demand and require.
Our democracies will declare martial law and become more autocratic (dictatorial) because their population will be stressed out and in fear as more climate consequences shatter and scatter their lives. This regression has happened many times before in history. Fearful people (as in pre-Nazi Germany) will accept and even demand dictatorial strong-man leaders, solutions, and behaviors they would never accept under normal -non-emergency living conditions.
This devolution can occur because the core nature of progressive democracy requires:
a. abundant and adequate resources for a large portion of their population and
b. a high degree of relative economic, social and political stability for a democracy to even exist.
Under the continuing stresses from escalating climate consequences, democracies will rapidly be forced to devolve into authoritarian nations. As global warming consequences worsen, critical resources will dwindle, and you will not have anything like previous normal social, economic, or political stability.
The constantly worsening climate disasters, mass migrations, and many other climate consequences will also intensify or cause new conflicts and destroy anything that looks like current normal democratic stability. (Because of escalating climate consequences, many current non-democratic states may devolve even further into warring clans or gangs.)
How can we expect democracies not to devolve into authoritarian nations? When survival is at stake in an emergency, drastic immediate action must be taken. We must sacrifice our individual rights and freedoms for the practicalities needed for the survival of the collective.
You can trust that our global democracies, just like existing dictatorships, will also take all the extreme measures needed to preserve their power and do whatever is necessary to maintain law and order in the coming climate chaos.
A terrifying part of this climate devolution is that existing right-wing nationalist and conservative political movements (as well as existing dictatorships) may intentionally ignore fixing the climate emergency for as long as possible. They will ignore fixing the climate to help create the deteriorating conditions within the nation that will eventually propel their rise to more power and influence.
Eventually, a fearful population will call upon almost anyone the believe to be a leader for their particular brand of simplistic quick solutions to the climate emergency. Those people will then willingly surrender their human rights and freedoms just in the hope they can feel safe again.
The harsh reality of the probable climate emergency-driven devolution of democracies means that to maintain the world's democracies, we must find a way to resolve the runaway global warming extinction emergency. And, we must do it before it creates more authoritarian dictatorships where centuries of hard-won human rights will be lost.
So, if you want to eventually live in a police state under emergency draconian martial law, do little or nothing to fix our current runaway global heating extinction emergency. You will eventually get your police state in the next phase of global climate destabilization and collapse.
Worse yet, as more authoritarian governments are created from climate devolution, it is doubtful they will ever be able to affect the minimal international cooperation required to prevent humanity's near-total extinction from runaway global heating consequences. Click here to see how this climate destabilization and collapse will take place.
Click here for how to get busy to protect your democracy and progressive government from devolving into an emergency-driven authoritarian government and police state because of the runaway global heating extinction emergency.
Fact 12. The most significant and most dangerous climate tipping point and global catastrophe is the Thwaites "doomsday glacier" collapse. It is just about to happen. When it does happen, it changes everything for humanity's future in an instant.
Click here to read how the Thwaites "doomsday glacier" collapse will change the world instantly.
In Summary of the Most Misunderstood Climate Facts
Because global warming is already in a runaway state and primarily out of our control, it is good to be clear about the two things that we can still control:
1. We can slow down some unavoidable global warming consequences for you and others by getting our governments to execute Part 3 of the Job One Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan (aka Plan B.)
2. We can prepare to survive accelerating global warming consequences for as long and as comfortably as possible. At the same time, we can hope that this crisis does not turn into total extinction and that our wise preparation helps us make it through the now unavoidable death of half of humanity by mid-century.
What you can do today about the climate change and global warming emergency because we are running out of time!
1. We do need your help in getting this post to everywhere it needs to go!
a. Would you please help email this post to more politicians worldwide before the COP26 International climate change conference. Particularly these US politicians because it is doubtful they and their climate staff also understand these issues. Please forward it to US politicians like John Kerry (the Climate Czar,) Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom, and other members of the US progressive Squad. Please also send it to all other global politicians you think should see it as well.
b. Kindly email this post to the delegates, officials, and sponsors of the United Nations' next international climate conference (COP26), November 1-12, 2021. It is time the next climate conference stops watering down the correct global fossil fuel reduction targets needed to prevent our mass extinction.
Furthermore, it is time for COP26 to stop setting any global warming reduction targets based on carbon removal technology that does not exist. It is time for COP26 to tell the people of the world exactly how unlivable our global warming future will be because if they fail to mobilize government action again, there will be no time left to reach the correct global fossil fuel reductions. (Click here to learn how the IPCC is distorting carbon capture technology calculations to allow fossil fuel-producing nations and the fossil fuel industry to maintain production and profits and keep global fossil fuel reduction targets far below where they should be.
c. Please email this post to the ecological and global warming educational groups and their staff mentioned in this post, such as 350.org, Climate Central, Climate Mobilization, Climate Emergency Fund, the Sunrise Movement, Sierra Club, World Wildlife Fund, etc. Please also send it to ALL other environmental and global warming educational groups you think should see it as well.
2. Sign this global warming emergency petition to our politicians.
3. Get started with your personal and business Plan B for Climate Change Resilience today. It also contains information on how to live within our carrying capacity limits, prepare for what is coming, and how to adapt and simplify both your lifestyle and livelihood, so you become part of the energy solution to this emergency.
Please note that at this late stage, individual actions alone will not reverse the global warming extinction emergency. Only government actions will do that.
Please help support the research and candid, comprehensive climate change analysis done by the Job One for Humanity organization. Make a tax-deductible donation here.
More documentation
1. To now learn about the most critical current facts on climate change, click here.
2. To learn how difficult it will be to get close to the extinction-preventing 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, click here.
3. Please note that this older 2 C limit calculation by the United Nations IPCC did not include adequate tipping point calculations. But, it did wrongly include magical compensatory carbon capture calculations for technology that might not exist for thirty years. It also did not include many other critical calculation factors described here.
4. If you want to understand the climate science and analysis procedures we used to present the above information, click here for a technical explanation of our climate research process.
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