Last Updated 3.7.24. 

The climate change facts below are not for individuals under 16 years old. These serious climate change adult problems are far too upsetting and complex for children under 16 to understand or deal with in healthy or rational ways.

Overview

This page contains the following sections:

1. Prologue and Introduction.

2. Why a climate change consequence-related total human extinction is highly improbable.

3. The natural dialectical counteractions that have been seriously underestimated in the previous climate change and global heating studies and predictions.

4. How Mother Nature's natural counteractions, consequences, and systems will be the dominant force saving humanity from itself and total extinction.

5. How long will it take for Mother Nature to kill off enough of us to save the rest of us?

6. How will the long-delayed, dialectical human system counteractions be an essential but later secondary force helping save humanity from a climate change-driven total extinction?

7. How much of humanity will perish and be left after mid-century?

8. When will our governments finally act in a way that honestly fixes the climate change emergency?

9. A helpful and balancing perspective on Mother Nature's coming mass die-off and widespread global collapse.

10. A "Big Picture" Way of Seeing Our Climate Change Consequence Timetables as Waves.

11. Conclusion.

12. What you can do with today about our climate change-driven nightmare and your and humanity's survival.

13. Additional reading, important technical notes, and other collapse-related studies.

Prologue

A growing number of people worldwide have given up all hope and believe that:

1. humanity can not and will not fix the climate change emergency before it is too late, and 

2. a climate change-driven total human extinction is inevitable.

This article presents facts and a well-reasoned dialectical meta-systemic argument that demonstrates that a climate change-driven total human extinction conclusion, while possible, is extremely unlikely.

Unfortunately, some of the promoters of the climate change "all is doomed to total human extinction and total collapse" mindset have failed to engage in the deep, dialectically meta-systemic analysis on a subject as complex and crucial as climate change and the future existence of humanity.

When one examines multiple levels down the chain of most likely climate change consequences interacting with the world's other crises and their most probable dialectical counteractions, humanity's climate change future is extremely challenging but is significantly more hopeful than the climate change doomers or post-doomers "all is lost positions" that they would like their followers to believe.

If this article better reflects our most probable climate change future, I have no doubts that it will still be a long, excruciating, and painful process for humanity to endure and recover from. This climate change-driven widespread collapse and breakdown process, which will occur before humanity's climate change-related recovery process begins, is described at the end of this article and in this link.

This article discusses and illuminates the most probable and final human systems tipping point --- when humanity will finally act to deal with the climate change emergency. There is a painful surprise here concerning this final human systems tipping point leading to recovery. It is in the form of what will most probably happen to much of humanity just before humanity finally acts effectively to fix the climate change emergency.

Even if everything goes horribly wrong for humanity and we fail to get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, and we cross the carbon 450 ppm threshold and tipping point, which brings about phase 2 of irreversible global warming, we should still be able to save about thirty percent of humanity to as little as one to two percent of humanity.

If things go better than is discussed below, we might even be able to save 30-45 percent of humanity, but never more than about 50% of humanity once we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold.

This article also discusses the critical and painful circumstances that will finally get whatever governments are still standing to take the bitter medicine and do whatever they have to do at that point to radically reduce global fossil fuel use to levels required at that time. Hopefully, our government's actions will be in time to save as much of the remaining about 50% of post-2050 humanity. 

A bitter and excruciating chaotic process awaits humanity. This now unavoidable process is predominantly because of the many decades of the intention and continuous criminal acts by the global fossil fuel cartel to keep the public ignorant of the actual climate change dangers and our politicians compromised or befuddled with disinformation. (At some point, you will want to review the first online public trial of the global fossil fuel cartel for crimes against humanity, which have maliciously driven humanity into its current climate change extinction emergency.)

Our current climate change emergency will have many horrible primary and secondary consequences (listed here). Still, with the help of Mother Nature, some luck, and the eventual human systems dialectical counter-reactions described in detail below, we should be able to avoid total human extinction.

(If you are uncertain about how climate change's many consequences interacting with humanity's other 11 major global crises could possibly cause a mass to a near-total human extinction long before 2100, click here and read this article before continuing.)

The information below will be upsetting and unsettling for any rational individual. Therefore, at the end of this article, we have provided links to a comprehensive climate preparation, adaptation, resilience, relocation, and recovery plan to help you manage all aspects of the consequences discussed in this article. 

If you still believe that our governments would never let the current climate change emergency cause a large-scale human extinction to ever occur, please read this article. It describes the dozens of highly challenging problems the world's governments have to collectively resolve before 2025 (maybe until 2031 at the very latest if humanity is very fortunate.)

With your understanding of how poorly the world's governments truly cooperate with each other on anything, you are now ready to discover the many potent reasons why a climate-driven total extinction is highly unlikely.The following is a bit complex, but if you read to the end, the lists and illustrations should help you understand the legitimate science and analysis behind why it is unlikely that humanity will go totally extinct from climate change-driven consequences.

 

 

Introduction

To understand the headline of this article, IT IS ESSENTIAL TO Understand the DEATH AND DESTRUCTION differences between a runaway global heating-driven mass extinction, a near-total extinction event, and a total extinction event.

This article will not only clarify those differences. It will also strengthen (or restore) a rational, balanced, and scientifically appropriate hope for our current climate change future.

The different levels of the climate change and global heating-driven extinction are defined as:

1. Mass human extinction is now unavoidable because of our 60 years of climate inaction, ineffective action, and denial. We have been so grossly ineffective in slowing and reversing global heating for 60 years that about half of the human population will die by mid-century. 
2. Near-total human extinction is a scenario where as much as 50-90+% of humanity could go extinct before we slow and reverse the current runaway global heating. (The processes of near-total extinction are described in the first two extinction-accelerating tipping points on this page and then on this essential page.)
3. Total human extinction can only occur if we allow atmospheric carbon levels to rise to 800 to 1700 parts per million (ppm). At those levels, we risk our atmosphere being pulled out into space and 100% of everything else that depends upon oxygen suffocating and going entirely extinct. (The processes of total extinction are described in the third and fourth extinction-accelerating tipping points on this page and then trigger the many processes found on this essential page.)

Fortunately, long before reaching those extreme carbon 800-1700 atmospheric carbon ppm levels, Mother Nature will step in with her tough medicine. Her excruciating "tough medicine" and intervention (as described further below) may result in close to our near-total extinction, but not total extinction!

We will not all go extinct because Mother Nature's "tough medicine" will occur and intensify in lockstep with the increasing severity, frequency, and scale of the primary and secondary climate consequences described in detail on this page. We will not go totally extinct also because the insane levels of suffering and mass die-off that will occur as half of humanity perishes over the next 2-4 decades will finally cause the world's population to demand that their governments act. 

Somewhere over the next 25-45 years, much of humanity will finally come to support their governments radically reducing global fossil fuel usage to the required levels needed at that time, or things will get far worse, and humanity will face an even more painful, total extinction scenario. Further below in this article, you will find the list of critical dialectical reactions and counteractions humanity will eventually take place, which will be an essential and timely contributing factor but not the dominant factor in humanity experiencing only a near-total extinction and not total human extinction.

Ultimately, it will most likely be Mother Nature's powerful remedial "tough medicine" counteractions and not our own global heating remedial actions that will be the dominant force that ultimately saves humanity from ourselves and total extinction.

The two main exemptions to humanity not becoming near-totally extinct due to the effects of climate change are if:

A. a global nuclear or biological war breaks out because of mass climate migrations, resource and food shortages, or another climate change-related primary or secondary consequence.

Well before we reach humanity's predicted climate change-driven mass extinction by about 2050, the likelihood that humanity will destroy itself near-totally in much larger multi-regional or global conflicts before 2050 is exceptionally high. Here's why.

After we have crossed our last chance atmospheric carbon 450 ppm threshold and tipping point, humanity's mass extinction by about 2050 will be driven mainly by starvation, mass migrations, and localized conflicts. But there is also an exceptionally high probability of much larger conflicts occurring due to climate change's many accelerating secondary consequences. 

These secondary consequences include intensifying smaller-scale localized resource conflicts, which will also create much larger-scale national, international, and global conflicts.

The many extinction-accelerating secondary consequences of climate change are described fully about 1/2 way down this page. We strongly recommend reading the secondary consequences of climate change because it will help you to viscerally and intimately understand climate change's secondary consequence-driven coming suffering and death. 

(Click here also to learn why human extinction by about 2050-2070 might be only near-total extinction, not the far worse total extinction, but only if we do not keep our atmospheric carbon levels below the carbon 450 parts per million. level.)

B. somehow, we allow runaway global heating to reach the third and fourth extinction-accelerating tipping points and trigger the many processes found on this critical page.)

For anything short of global nuclear or biological war or reaching the third and fourth extinction-accelerating tipping points, everything you read below should hold true, and we still have a sliver of hope. 

Why a climate change consequence-related total human extinction is highly improbable

How Mother Nature's "tough medicine" will help fix what we did not fix ourselves.

"Humanity has steadfastly ignored the ever-louder continuous feedback from Mother Nature's consistently intensifying climate change's negative human and ecological consequences. These many climate change consequences directly result from humanity's unsustainable and destructive ecological behaviors and attitudes. 

Mother Nature will now 'fix' the source and cause of these unsustainable and destructive ecological behaviors for us. Mother Nature's healing process will definitely not be a "fix" or a process that any rational human would wish, even on their worst enemy." Daniel Ford

The Job One research team must humbly admit that in our earlier research almost a decade ago, we previously failed to fully allow for all appropriate compensatory weighting for the many natural and human system climate destabilization counteractions in our previous climate change research analysis. We failed to fully acknowledge that these natural and human system climate change counteractions intrinsically respond to and act to powerfully counter the rapidly worsening global heating effects on our climate systems and subsystems. 

This generally unacknowledged natural and human system counteraction error has also been significant and consistently still present in other climate researchers' and climate organizations' current global heating predictions. 

The most critical omitted natural counteraction consists of Mother Nature killing enough of us off soon enough using the primary and secondary global heating consequences so that it becomes impossible to add more human-caused fossil fuel carbon to the atmosphere and eventually cause our own total extinction. It is that simple. (The illustrations further down this page will help clarify this cause-and-effect counteraction.)

Previously, the Job One for Humanity organization held this total extinction would only be true if we did not get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. However, based on a new analysis by Job One on the factors listed further below, we now believe that while the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century is still unavoidable, total human extinction caused by primary and secondary global heating consequences occurring from about 2050 to 2070 (or sooner) is neither probable nor likely.

Based on our new analysis, which now includes several previously ignored or discounted natural and human counteraction scenarios, we now predict that if we can at least get close to the 2025 targets and prevent atmospheric carbon levels from crossing the final carbon 450 ppm tipping point, humanity will, at worst, only face a near-total extinction. 

Before we go over the critical natural and human counteractions list for runaway global warming that can potentially save as much as 50% of humanity (if we don't cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold), we must explain a common scientific principle.

Global heating counteractions are similar to Newton's 3rd law. That law is that "for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction." 

If, at this point, you think about global heating consequences as the costs of global heating, it would be helpful. As global heating costs rise (their pain and suffering levels), there will be more and more human and natural counteractions (Newton's equal and opposite reactions) to control and lower these costs and suffering.

Climate change's natural and human counteracting process will become more apparent as you review the many rising "costs" of our runaway global heating consequences (further below) and the increased likelihood that natural and human counteractions will eventually react to those costs.

The natural dialectical counteractions of Mother Nature that have been seriously underestimated in the previous climate change and global heating predictions

An actual global heating-driven total extinction event can only occur if we put so much greenhouse gas into the atmosphere that our atmosphere is ripped off into space. Unfortunately, this is what happened to Venus because of ever-rising global temperatures. The strange but good news here is that total extinction will be prevented because so much of humanity will be dead long before we ever get to the extreme levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas, which could cause total human extinction.

To help you understand what those predicting inevitable total human extinction have missed or underestimated, it is necessary to start with the natural counteractions that "Mother Nature" will activate to rebalance the system as runaway global heating worsens. The following natural counteractions are the only counteractions that alone have the dominate and essential power to save humanity from humanity's own bad fossil fuel decisions and actions.

Unfortunately, there is also mixed bad and good news about fixing the total extinction threat by properly including the effects of key natural global heating counteractions:

Here is the mixed news:

1. The death of half of humanity by mid-century is still unavoidable. We have ignored six decades of valid scientific climate change warnings and have been ineffective in slowing accelerating global heating. The climate bill has come due.
2. Because of natural counteractions to rising global temperatures in the climate's systems and subsystems, we can still save much of the other 50% of humanity (but only if we get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible and stay below carbon 425-450 ppm.)
3. If we widely miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, Mother Nature's counteracting climate-related primary and secondary consequences will soon accelerate dramatically and then exponentially. 
4. The good news is that Mother Nature's counteractions should ensure ALL of humanity does not perish. But depending upon when effective human system counteractions are started, humanity could get down to 30-2% of its current population. The most likely Mother Nature-enforced die-off total should be around 15-20% of humanity surviving. That would be close to the Eadrth's true human population carrying capacity 

Please note: If we miss the 2025 targets by a lot, there will just be far fewer of us than if we got close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. If we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets altogether and for considerably longer than the next eight years, then we will cross the carbon 450 ppm last threshold tipping point, and there would be a strong possibility that we could eventually go totally extinct because we will cross the third and fourth extinction-accelerating tipping points and we will have entered the fourth and fifth phases of irreversible runaway global heating discussed on this page.)

Irreversible climate change means that we will not be able to get the dangerous levels of excess greenhouse gases (like carbon) back down to a normal and human-safe pre-industrial level and out of our atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. (As of December 2023, We are currently at the insane atmospheric carbon level of 420 ppm. We will soon enter the generally considered irreversible and second phase of runaway global heating sometime between 2025-2031. This is when we enter into the carbon 425-450 ppm range.)

On the one hand, at this point, you may be wondering how Mother Nature will "allow" a mass or even a near-total human extinction to occur while, on the other hand, still "preventing" us from going totally extinct.

It is because of a dialectical twist of evolutionary fate. 

How Mother Nature's natural counteractions, consequences, and systems will be the dominant force saving humanity from itself and total extinction

Complex adaptive systems have "harmful" feedback loops and tipping points that can make the system worse, more unstable, or eventually crash. On the other hand, complex adaptive systems also have "helpful" countering feedback loops and tipping points that, at specific points, can trigger and make the climate system better and more stable and eventually restore the system to equilibrium or near-equilibrium. 

Although most of the most prominent "harmful" climate feedback loops and tipping points are known, most of the "helpful" natural climate feedback loops and tipping points are still unknown. This is because humanity has never studied anything like what is happening to us with our current runaway global heating emergency.

Rest assured, these "helpful" feedback loops and tipping points are there because we have repeatedly seen these "helpful" feedback loops and tipping points gradually restoring other harmed or crashed ecological systems back into new equilibrium states in other natural and biological systems. 

We have observed many predator-prey ecological systems that have nearly collapsed and then rebalanced once again using new processes involving new feedback loops and different tipping points that push the ecological system back closer to its original equilibrium.

Lucky for us, these same "helpful" feedback loops and tipping point rebalancing mechanisms exist within the climate's systems and subsystems.

These helpful tipping points and feedback loops can also help control the speed and damage levels of the runaway global heating extinction emergency. And then, at some point, they can trigger into action, assisting Mother Nature in beginning the restoration and rebalancing process and doing what is necessary to preserve the critical conditions for humanity to exist. 

Here is how those counteraction processes look for our future. While reading this list, please keep in mind that the sooner humanity engages in truly effective, immediate, and radical global fossil fuel use reductions to keep humanity below the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, the fewer people that Mother Nature will need to keep killing off.

Mother Nature's global heating counteractions are as follows:

1. In perfect lockstep with our rising global heating, Mother Nature's immutable laws of climate physics will continue ratcheting up ever-intensifying climate and global heating-related consequences to kill off hundreds of millions of us and then billions of us. (The initial main ways Mother Nature will kill us off are low crop yields, crop failures, and soaring crop prices. Global crops will fail or be stunted because of global warming-aggravated heatwaves, rain bombs, droughts, flooding, wildfires, out-of-season cold spells, hail, Derechos (severe wind storms), and other extreme weather that destabilizes normal growing season conditions. The world's five principal grains (rice, wheat, maize [corn], millet, and sorghum) are particularly vulnerable to climate-caused massive crop failure. This global heating-related crop failure occurs when temperatures (heat waves) are near or above 100 degrees Fahrenheit for about 30 days during the regular growing season. Increasing starvation always increases mass migration to wherever there is more food. These hunger-driven mass migrations will cause more local, regional, and national conflicts, creating a new amplifying feedback loop of even more mass starvation, soaring food prices, economic instability, and conflict. As these starvation and migration conflicts grow in food-growing and producing countries, food production also will drop because of the many food-growing and transportation disruptions caused directly or indirectly by those expanding conflicts.)
2. This massive kill-off will continue unabated until so few of us are left that humanity can no longer raise or maintain global temperatures by burning so much fossil fuel. 
3. The minimal critical point at which Mother Nature will stop killing us is when she has killed enough of us so that global fossil fuel use goes down to levels that no longer continue to heat the atmosphere. (This is likely the level where no human-caused additional greenhouse gases (carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide) are being added to the atmosphere. 
4. Mother Nature's final kill-off stage will end when so little additional greenhouse gas is being added to the atmosphere by remaining survivors that the atmosphere now even has the opportunity to start naturally removing existing greenhouse gases using natural Earth sequestering systems, which will begin lowering our average global temperature.
5. Mother Nature's climate system and subsystem inertia (resistance to change) will also help naturally slow the rise of global temperatures even as we are burning more fossil fuels, at least for a while longer. For example, for quite a while, the oceans and our soils and forests will keep absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and our seas will also continue absorbing carbon and heat from the atmosphere. (But at some point, that will stop, and these systems will begin releasing that stored carbon, and then things will really go bad.)

The simplicity of what Mother Nature is doing is just taking the natural and already occurring consequences of global heating and then using the results of those consequences to eventually slow and reverse those consequences. It is quite simple.

There is one very important additional fact and perspective to understand about Mother Nature solving the climate change problem for us. She will not be kind in how she kills us off. She will not do it in an easy or tidy way.

Mother Nature's climate change and global warming healing process is going to be excruciatingly painful and costly

We strongly recommend that you look at this page, which will take you step-by-step through the horror of scores of insanely painful consequences that Mother Nature will inflict upon us until the atmospheric greenhouse gasses of carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide come back to preindustrial levels of about 270 ppm. Or, at least they would come back down to about carbon 350 ppm. (Carbon 350 ppm was the last level that James Hansen, the world-renowned climate scientist, said we would have a relative level of safety and climate stability.

For a moment, as a metaphor, think about what we are doing to our environment and the Earth as if humanity were a virus destroying its host. Now think of Mother Nature saving the Earth by killing off more of us by doing just what the human body does when it gets a virus. The human body raises its temperature through a fever to eventually kill the virus. Mother nature is raising the temperature of the planet, giving Earth a fever until it kills off enough of humanity, which is the virus causing the climate change and ecological disaster we see all around us.

The financial cost of Mother Nature's cure will also be excruciatingly painful; click here to read more about the insane financial costs of not fixing climate change ourselves.

 

 

How long will it take for Mother Nature to kill off enough of us to save the rest of us?

Unless our governments mass mobilize and come close to the 2025 targets soon and we do not cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, the critical point where Mother Nature stops managing rising greenhouse gases by killing us off will likely be after 2050 in the second half of the 21st century. On the other hand, if we get close to the 2025 targets soon, Mother Nature might stop killing us off far closer to 2045-2055.

Unfortunately, Mother Nature may likely keep killing us off with more intense global heating consequences beyond just the number of us that "she" needs to kill off to stop the remains population from adding more greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, predicting helpful natural system tipping points and feedback correction timeframes is not currently possible for many complex adaptive systems like the climate or for complex natural systems interacting with human systems.)

The natural kill-off process is not a theory. We have already seen Mother Nature's global heating kill-off counteractions. Mother Nature is already directly or indirectly killing off tens of millions of us each year from only our current level of global heating consequences. 

The blue line in the first illustration below represents rising primary and secondary runaway global heating consequences. These rising global heating consequences will cause the climate and other systems within Mother Nature to keep killing off more and more humans (the green line) until humans cannot overheat the Earth by burning more fossil fuels.

About mid-century (2050) is when we estimate the lines will cross and about half of humanity will have perished, and the Mother Nature-driven die-off will start slowing down.

 

In the second illustration below, one can see that the more humanity that dies on the green line, the more that global fossil fuel use will naturally fall, the blue line.

 

 

How will the long-delayed, dialectical human system counteractions be an essential but later secondary force helping save humanity from a climate change-driven total extinction?

"When the pain going forward is less than the pain of where you are, people will change." Unknown

Humanity will collectively and eventually reach what could be called the climate change "rock bottom" point. This is the point where the level of climate change pain of where humanity is currently (experiencing the many climate change consequences) will be more than the pain of making the required changes needed to save what is left of humanity. 

Below are the wise, necessary, and significant human systems counteractions (dialectical research and responses) that will eventually occur as runaway global heating worsens and its costs, suffering, pain, and deaths rise exponentially to the final level that pushes humanity to its collective climate change "rock bottom" transition point.

But here is the bad news. Neither individually nor cumulatively will these human counteractions occur in time or at sufficient levels to save about half of humanity from mass extinction by mid-century. (Please note, the following list of human system counter-actions are mostly the long-delayed climate remedial actions that were required and should have been started and done six decades ago.)

Additionally, the following human counteractions by and of themselves alone will also not happen in time to save us from near-total extinction. Too many now unavoidable and severe primary and secondary climate change consequences are already in the pipeline. This is primarily because, for the last 60 years, our governments have been so ineffective in resolving the global heating emergency because of the global fossil fuel cartel's disinformation and coercive undue influence campaigns on our politicians.

The human system dialectical counter actions below will be significantly caused by the contextual, relational, procedural, and transformational changes that the primary and secondary climate change consequences will cause by severely disrupting humanity's existing governmental, economic, social, and food supply-dependent ecological systems.

Below are the human systems counteractions that will eventually be enacted to the intensifying human die off and other many painful consequences of climate change. Eventually, they also will help lower our overall global fossil fuel use and help save at least some smaller part of humanity.

The following human system actions, reactions, and counteractions are not necessarily in the priority order or sequence. They will occur as humanity wakes up to the climate change extinction emergency and desperately tries to save itself.

Eventually: 

1. The global insurance and reinsurance companies canceling or failing to accept insurance policies in high-risk and known climate change danger areas will become a major force in getting our governments to act over the next few decades. Their angry citizens will be in the streets screaming that they can't sell or buy their own or desired homes because they are in expanding climate change high-risk zones and are now uninsurable.

Insurance and reinsurance companies worldwide will cancel or not accept ANY new home mortgages or business or home insurance or crop failure policies in the expanding high-risk climate change areas. Global insurance and reinsurance companies know they cannot survive the hundreds of trillions of dollars in climate change damages from now until 2050. They have no alternative but to eliminate and transfer the risks and losses back to the governments for any policy that could expose them to the ever-expanding risks and losses of accelerating climate change. 

Climate change-related damages are not acts of God or random accidents. The global fossil fuel cartel knowingly created the many climate change consequences by using behind-the-scenes undue influence, censorship, and disinformation campaigns to stop governments from enforcing the needed global fossil fuel reductions. This expensive cartel disinformation and influence campaign also kept the world's citizens from demanding the necessary fossil fuel reductions for over 60 years. 

2. Successful lawsuits against the global fossil fuel cartel for climate change damages will accelerate to such massive levels that the fossil fuel production industry can no longer function as it had previously. They will also become a major force to slow then reverse the climate change emergency. A steady and steep fossil fuel production reduction will result because the cartel will be forced to pay for all the damages the cartel's products and actions have produced. As of 10.19.23, there are over 2,000 climate change damage lawsuits worldwide against the cartel. 

By 2027, it is estimated there will be as many as 8,000 lawsuits, and by 2030, 20,000 lawsuits. Lawsuits against the global fossil fuel cartel will potentially and eventually have a far more significant and successful result in stopping the fossil fuel industry from continuing to harm humanity and biological life than all of the public protests that have thus far taken place worldwide. (We strongly recommend you read the Climate Justice Now program, which starts here. This program contains a list of law firms suing the cartel for climate change damage and tips on how to get your climate damage lawsuit going.

3. humanity will experience new climate catastrophes that are so extensive, intense, and costly, and humanity collectively will experience sufficient fear, pain, loss, and climate change danger awareness that they will finally demand (through their common political will) that their politicians act to fix the fears and losses from accelerating climate change. (We estimate this public demand will only happen after a single or several closely spaced climate change catastrophes occur, costing about 1/2 trillion dollars each and killing upwards of 100,000 or more people.) 

4. we will discover and use, at the proper scale, sustainable and appropriate technologies that are considerably different from what most people understand as new technologies. Once scaled up, these appropriate technologies will help us transition away from fossil fuels and possibly even help us remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere in effective and sustainable ways. (Please note that effective and proven appropriate technology carbon capture and removal technology is most likely decades away.) 

5. governments that still have functioning legal systems will begin expediting highly public criminal prosecutions on all individuals and companies shown to be involved in implementing, executing, facilitating, or enabling the climate change nightmare. There will be severe punishments for those found guilty.

Those individuals' and companies' actions will be tried under new and old laws as crimes against humanity and genocide. Governments that still have the death penalty will execute many of those found guilty because of raging survivor anger and demands for justice for those who chose the wrong side of history.

6. the world's citizens will angrily demand their politicians immediately vote for honest climate change remedial actions as described on this page. (They will need to take protest actions like those described on this page.)

7. the world's wealthiest nations will eventually understand that the climate change emergency is a no-win game for everyone. Their powerful resistance (inertia) to losing their significant financial advantages will finally motivate and compel them to act to fix the climate to protect their economic interests and advantages. (For more on why wealthy individuals and nations will finally act on climate change, click here.)

8. our governments will finally pass, verify, and enforce laws that radically reduce fossil fuel use to get close to the 2025 global targets or the updated targets that are honestly needed at the time our governments actually act effectively. These new and enforceable correct target laws will significantly help reduce global fossil fuel use.

9. our governments will create revenue-neutral, Fee and Dividend-based fossil fuel reduction programs. These Fee and Dividend-based programs will significantly disincentivize using fossil fuels and greatly incentivize greener energy use. 

10. we will build more non-fossil fuel alternative energy generation systems to replace the current fossil fuel energy generation.

11. we will add more natural sequestration systems to remove more fossil fuel pollution from our atmosphere.

12. we will better protect and preserve existing natural carbon sequestration systems.

13. our governments will pass and enforce laws that will make fossil fuels nearly impossible to use for all but a few minimal and essential uses. 

14. the world's citizens will angrily demand the world's billionaires use their influence to force the politicians to immediately vote for honest climate change remedial actions as described on this page. (To get the billionaires to do this will require citizens to take the actions described on this page.)

15. to ensure we never have this problem again, current governments (or those that survive the post-fossil fuel great global collapse) will need to evolve new, more sustainability-friendly economic and political systems and laws. These new economic and political systems and laws must change the current global capitalism-based" values paradigm of over-consumption, over-population, exporting industrial pollution to the public sector, waste, overshoot, and other unsustainable ecological over-exploitation. Global society will need to radically change its values on how it sees nature from something to be dominated and exploited to something to be harmonized with and lived with in balance in sustainable ways.

16. because of the unimaginable pain and trauma of the runaway global heating's cumulative adverse effects and the coming global collapse of many critical areas, the survivors will find a new, more equitable, and just way to manage the world's resources and assets for survivors for the sustainable benefit of ALL humanity and not just for a few powerful and privileged nations or billionaires. Our world will look very different after the great global collapse. (To see the many step-by-step processes of a climate change consequence-driven great global collapse, click here.)

17. the net result of our steadily accumulating individual fossil fuel reduction actions can help make some difference in how much of humanity survives after 2050. There is an important role of your individual actions in reducing fossil fuel use to save as much of humanity as possible. In many areas of our website, we have emphasized our government's critical first and primary role as being the most effective and necessary tool to enforce the required 2025 global fossil fuel reductions. While that is a true priority, there is also an essential role for ongoing growing individual-driven fossil fuel reductions.

While individual fossil fuel reductions by hundreds of millions of us are presently too little and too late to save about half of humanity before about 2050, they still can play an important role in what remaining percentage of humanity survives after 2050. After humanity has hit the climate change catastrophe "rock bottom" described above, the net result of our steadily accumulating individual fossil fuel reduction actions could help make a critical difference for as much as 30% of humanity surviving after 2050. (This 30 percent saved also includes us doing all of the other human systems' dialectical climate change counteractions described in this section.)

If individual fossil fuel reduction actions do not continue to grow significantly, and we do not do most of the human system dialectical climate change counteractions described above, as few as five percent or less of humanity may survive until about 2070. This also implies there is an important role for continuing individual actions to reduce fossil fuel use. Click here to see the needed individual fossil fuel use reduction actions.

As a rule, the worse the climate consequence "inaction costs" of runaway global heating get (i.e., financial losses, ecological damage, human suffering, and deaths), the faster and harder governments and others will counter-react and enact the above list of human counteractions to further slow the runaway global heating extinction emergency to prevent it becoming irreversible total human extinction.

Put in other words, as history has repeatedly demonstrated, humanity will finally change its behaviors when the pain of going forward with those new changes is less than the pain of staying where it is.

In the illustration below, the green line represents the rising and intensifying consequences of runaway global heating. The blue line represents the locked-in relationship of dependable, continuous, faster, and harder reactions to global heating consequences using all possible human counteractions in lockstep with the rising painful consequences of runaway global heating.

 

Yes, the above human counteractions will be too little and too late by themselves to save humanity. But when added to Mother Nature's far larger and more dominant horrible kill-off counteractions, they provide the additional opportunity to save even more post-mid-century humanity because the above human counteractions will also contribute to and help slow and lower our rising global temperature and new carbon going into our atmosphere. 

When all of the above and far less powerful secondary human counteractions are added to the natural counteractions of Mother Nature, they will act as an additional counteracting brake on rising global temperatures and atmospheric carbon.

These human counteractions will help Mother Nature ensure that humanity will not go beyond near-total extinction. But even without the additional human counteractions, the good news is Mother Nature's massive kill-off alone will save us from a climate change-driven total extinction. The above human counteractions (which will eventually occur during the collapse process) are just extra insurance and can help save more of us sooner.

Unfortunately, there is still this awful news to deal with. All of the above natural and human counteractions will still not be enough or be able to be scaled up in time to save about half of humanity from going extinct by mid-century in what will be an excruciatingly horrible and painful process. This means that whoever survives the mid-century extinction will face centuries to thousands of years of deprivation and suffering before Mother Nature can fully rebalance herself and get the atmospheric carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide levels down to where our global temperature goes back to a level better suited for optimal human existence and reproduction.

 

 

How much of humanity will perish and be left after mid-century?

At this point, you may wonder how much of humanity Mother Nature's counteractions could save. Here are some estimates.

If we fail to radically reduce current global fossil fuel use and get close to the 2025 global targets as soon as possible:

1. some believe Mother Nature will keep killing us off until we get back down to what is known as the Earth's sustainable carrying capacity of about 1.5 billion people.

2. others believe we will be lucky to have 5-10% or less of humanity still living in 2080 to 2100. This very high die-off level is because global heating will keep rising for decades even after Mother Nature has killed off enough of us to stop adding more carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide levels to our atmosphere. Moreover, global heating will continue to rise for about another 2-3 decades even after we entirely stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere because of pre-existing global heating momentum already committed within the climate system. 

3. The Club of Rome-related studies projects there will be between 2.5 billion people to the latest study projecting about 1.5 billion people left by 2100 if you also include all current climate change factors.

4. We at Job One believe that after humanity misses the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets significantly and humanity has hit the climate change catastrophe "rock bottom" (described above), the net result of Mother Nature killing off so many of us added to humanity successfully executing many of the human system climate change counteractions listed above, can make the difference so that as many as 30% of humanity will survive after 2050. 

If after humanity misses the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets significantly, and humanity has hit the climate change catastrophe "rock bottom" (described above), added to the net result of Mother Nature killing off so many of us, and we do not execute most of the human system climate change counteractions described above, as few as one to two percent of humanity will survive until about 2070. 

If we fail to get close to the 2025 targets, and if humanity fails to collectively hit climate change "rock bottom" soon enough, forcing its governments to finally act along with all of the human interactions getting started as soon as possible, it is critical to realize that the conditions for the after-mid-century survivors will be so bad most of them will wish they had not survived. (Click here to see the primary and secondary global heating-related consequences they will experience if we fail to get close to the 2025 targets.) 

Once you have reviewed those horrendous consequences, there will be little doubt that the only viable solution for humanity's future is to get as close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible.

 

 

When will our governments finally act in a way that honestly fixes the climate change emergency?

From all of the above, one begins to see there is no fixed date when our governments will finally act to fix the climate change emergency, but it will be determined by a series of painful climate change-related consequences suffered by much of humanity continually driving humanity toward its climate change "rock bottom" transition point, which will determine that governmental action date. 

Using the body of current climate change research and all of the Club of Rome-related studies, our best estimate of that date is sometime between 2035 and 2045; our governments will finally get serious about cutting global fossil use to the required levels. We strongly recommend reading our three recent Club of Rome climate change-related global collapse studies for background research and for the most likely global collapse timetables. The conclusion drawn from these three articles is that by about 2035, humanity will start to experience several major global catastrophes, instabilities, and critical system collapses because of multiple major factors converging simultaneously (industrial output, food production, resource availability, population, pollution, and climate consequences) and that will continue to intensify until our governments act.

We finished a spellbinding three-article series in January of 2023 on what happens when you add current climate research (like the above,) climate change extinction tipping point, and climate change feedback loop information into the four well-documented previous studies on the Club of Rome/MIT five factors that are most likely to bring about global collapse. (The Club of Rome/MIT five factors are industrial output, food production, resource availability, population, and pollution. The previous five Club of Rome/MIT studies did not adequately include recent climate change research.)

The last article in this Club of Rome series has graphs (like the one below) that show how the updated prediction timeframes for the global collapse of these five critical factors have grown significantly shorter when you add climate change consequence factors and timeframes into the other four previous studies. 

Here is our 2023 Job One for Humanity updated graph with current climate change information added and where humanity does not get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. The following things in the illustration below are essential regarding humanity's time frames relating to survival and collapse. Notice that around 2025 to 2030, critical survival factors start steep declines. From 2030 to 2040, even more crucial factors will move into steep declines and intersect during this period.

These two periods, from 2025 to 2030 and from 2030 to 2040, will dramatically increase human suffering and death. 2040 to 2050 will be even worse, with almost all critical survival factors in steep decline except pollution, which will also worsen things.

We have predicted that by 2050, about half of humanity will be dead. The period from 2050 to 2070 will be the most dangerous if our governments do not work with Mother Nature and eventually help reduce global fossil fuel use. If our governments miss their second opportunity to save about half of humanity, we could have anywhere from 30% to his little as 2% of humanity surviving past 2070.

 

 

Click here to go to the first of these three articles. It will also link you to the other two articles. Once you have also finished the Club Of Rome articles, you know much more about the processes and timeframes of global collapse than 99.9999% of humanity.

 

A helpful and balancing perspective on Mother Nature's coming mass die-off and widespread global collapse

Whenever a species within an ecosystem exceeds the needed resources of that ecosystem or so destroys its critical ecosystem so that it is no longer capable of sustainably producing all of the resources that species needs, mother nature "helps" that species to die off sufficiently so that its population comes back into balance with the ecosystem resources that support it.

Humanity is just another species within the species of Mother Nature on Earth. Humanity has not managed its population, which has grown far beyond what the Earth can sustainably support. Not only has humanity's population grown beyond the needed sustainable resources to support its population, but it is also so wholly polluted and destroyed the ecosystems that support it that these damaged ecosystems can no longer support the needs of an ever-growing humanity.

Mother nature will soon do to humanity what she has been doing to every other species that cannot migrate to a new ecosystem, which also falls out of balance with its ecosystem. She will find a way to cause a mass die-off in that species until its population matches the resources available in its ecosystem.

Because humanity has been utterly unable to manage its population, resources, and pollution properly, humanity now faces an unavoidable widespread great die-off and collapse of human and natural systems. This mass die-off will facilitate a great rebalancing and a potential great rebirth for what is left of humanity after the process runs its full course. Humanity will experience the effect of its unwise collective actions.

This great Die-off and collapse process will most likely continue until a new balance in the human population has been achieved, not because our governments have acted in time to prevent the great die-off and collapse. In many ways, this should be seen as just another natural evolutionary process. 

While there is not much we can do until the population-to-resource balance (the OverShoot) is re-established. We can understand its cause and effects and be compassionate with ourselves and others experiencing the suffering, financial loss, and death that will be the signposts of this natural process. 

The potential good news here is that if, at some point, our remaining governments can finally enforce the required climate laws and they do it in time, there will be enough of us left so the world does not go into total extinction and a new dark age. Best of all, if our governments finally act, we then have the potential and opportunity to create a Great Global Rebirth from the painful wisdom humanity will have acquired from this ordeal.

In a way, as we watch this painful die-off and collapse process unfold, we should be grateful that Mother Nature's natural processes are there to save us (at least a much smaller part of humanity) from ourselves and the ignorance, incompetence and greed of our governments and politicians.

For more information on Mother Nature's evolutionary processes especially the often necessary "collapse and rebirth" cycle for non-adaptive situations not paying attention, "listening" to, or using the situation's natural feedback information, click here.

Never forget that continuous collapse and rebirth are entirely natural parts of the Earth's long-term evolutionary history. Click here for a good explanation of this time-tested and proven evolutionary principle.

 

A "Big Picture" Way of Seeing Our Climate Change Consequence Timetables as Waves 

Because our governments and politicians have entirely failed to protect us from the worst climate change consequences, we must manage those consequences primarily by ourselves. Accordingly, it will be helpful to see your climate change future preparations and adaptations in the following three timeframe phases:

Phase One Wave: The Great Die-off and Great Collapse 

This great die-off and collapse will have several stages:

Stage One: From now until about 2025, climate change consequences will steadily rise in severity, frequency, and scale, but not so much that it will be hard to find the needed materials at reasonable costs to do the emergency preparations and adaptations you will need to do to protect yourself, your family, and your business. (Click here to learn more about the climate change tipping points that make this 2025 date so important.)

Stage Two: From 2025 to about 2031, climate change consequences will rise dramatically in severity, frequency, and scale, so much that it will be hard to find the needed materials at reasonable costs to do the emergency preparations and adaptations you will need to do to protect yourself, your family, and your business. Globally, deaths, financial losses, starvation, migrations, and other primary and secondary consequences of climate change will also rise dramatically. (Click here to learn more about the climate change tipping points that make this 2025-2031 date range so important.)

Stage Three: From 2031 to about 2050, climate change consequences will begin to rise exponentially in severity, frequency, and scale, so much that it will be all but impossible to find the needed materials at reasonable costs to do the emergency preparation and adaptations you will need to do to protect yourself, your family, and your business. (Click here if you doubt that about half of humanity will be dead from the combined primary and secondary consequences of our accelerating climate change.)

Globally, deaths, financial losses, starvation, migrations, and other primary and secondary consequences of climate change will also rise exponentially. (The processes and primary and secondary climate change consequences that will cause the first great die-off and collapse are described in detail on this page. For information about collapse and rebirth as a natural evolutionary process, see this page.)

Phase Two Wave: The Great Juncture, Turning Point, or Moment of Truth.

By 2050, to about 2070, about half of humanity will be already dead. If our governments act either before 2050 or in the early part of this 2050-2070 period, we still may be able to avoid near-total extinction and avoid having another 25% to 40% of the pre-2025 population die. If our governments act in time, we will save a significant part of the human population, and there is a good chance we can avoid a new dark age that could last for centuries. But if our governments do not act in time and there is only a tiny portion of humanity is left (20% or less, the probability of entering a new dark age is very high. (The human, governmental, and natural processes that could save as much as 50% of the remaining human population are described in detail on this page.)

Phase Three Wave: The Great Global Rebirth Possibilities.

If our governments do act in time (as described above and in detail here) and at least 25-50% of the population survives, the survivors of the greatest extinction and tragedy in human history will have unimaginable pain and trauma deeply ingrained into their psyches. Because of this global trauma, there is a strong likelihood that these painful collective memories will motivate the demand for massive changes in our human economic, social, political, and religious systems so that a climate change-triggered and enabled mass extinction event can never happen again.

To read about the many benefits and potential changes that can come about in this great global rebirth, we recommend first reading about the natural evolutionary process of going through a collapse and rebirth cycle found here and why it is not so bad from a big evolutionary perspective, and it is not the end of the world.

Next, we strongly recommend reading about the many possible benefits for human systems in a tremendous global rebirth when so many pre-existing power structures that were locked into the behaviors and ideas that destroyed most of humanity are no longer in power or functioning because of the Great Collapse. Here are these benefits for one of the most-read pages on our website.

 

Conclusion

We must get very busy on our remaining limited opportunities and save and salvage whatever we can of humanity and our global civilization! 

Unfortunately, those who have predicted a climate change-driven total extinction and complete global collapse have not carefully considered the many natural and human dialectical counteractions that will occur. They have not carefully analyzed the climate change emergency from a dialectical meta-systematic viewpoint, which would allow them to see the climate emergency from 28 unique perspectives and down 2-3 levels of dialectical consequences and counteractions to those consequences.

From the above, one can see that all is not hopeless, and a global heating-driven total extinction is not the most probable outcome of climate change and runaway global heating. On the contrary, the closer we get to the honest 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, the more of the post-mid-century 50% of humanity will be able to survive past mid-century. 

Conversely, the quality of life of those who survive the pre-mid-century unavoidable mass extinction process will be far more unbearable the longer it takes us to get close to the critical 2025 global targets.

When you analyze and include all of the human "harmful" climate feedback loops and tipping points along with all of the counteracting and "helpful" natural (Mother Nature's) and human feedback loops and tipping points, you get a climate and human-connected system that should eventually "self" correct through a very painful and extremely high "cost" reactive process.

Today, many climate researchers and individuals have either omitted or deeply underestimated the effects of Newton's 3rd law on climate systems and its many subsystems. They have primarily ignored natural (Mother Nature's) and human system-driven counteractions in the form of being corrective actions and "helpful" climate system feedback loops and tipping points. 

Unfortunately, many of those who believe the current runaway global heating situation is hopeless have given up. Because they believe total extinction is inevitable, they do nothing substantive to do their required 1/8 billionth critical part to get our governments to act while humanity still has time to prevent our total extinction. It is not hard to see that giving up or promoting giving up and failing to effectively act and educate is a grave ethical or moral failure.

Those individuals fail to see that the runaway global heating emergency is just another evolutionary opportunity that will force us to make the many economic, social, environmental, religious, and political changes that, sooner or later, we will be forced to make anyway. 

Fortunately, the more profound dialectical evolutionary climate truth shines brightest. If we get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible, as much as half of humanity could survive the runaway global heating extinction emergency. This perspective is truly a realistic and appropriate hope worth fighting, sacrificing, and working for wholeheartedly.

Individuals or groups who continually sell you all is lost, surviving is just hopium, or we are ALL doomed because of the runaway global heating emergency have failed to properly:

a. account for,

b. use in their analysis, or

c. see the many compensatory dialectical counteractions of:

1. Newton's always dependable 3rd Law of thermodynamics, 

2. Mother Nature's natural mass human kill-off counteraction is the only thing that can and will scale up in lockstep with our accelerating global heating consequences. (Mother Nature's kill-off counteractions will be the primary, dominant, and most likely way that a portion of humanity will be able to survive the runaway global heating extinction emergency.) 

3. Humanity's eventual, contributing, and secondary counteraction measures to radically reduce global fossil fuel use to levels that will allow some of humanity to survive. But, unfortunately, those radical fossil fuel-reducing actions will not occur until humanity experiences levels of insane financial loss, personal suffering, social and political chaos, and accelerating death that is so large and unbearable that humanity has no choice but to fix the climate change nightmare or everything dies!

4. Inertia (resistance to change) in the climate system and its subsystems and inertia in our many human systems. For example, the world's wealthiest individuals and nations will eventually understand that the climate change emergency is a no-win game for everyone. Their powerful resistance (inertia) to losing their significant financial advantages will finally motivate and compel them to act to fix the climate to protect their economic interests and advantages. (For more on why wealthy individuals and nations will finally act on climate change, click here.)

5. They have failed to consider the accelerating climate emergency from the 28 dialectical perspectives that are critical for analyzing complex adaptive systems like the climate and human reactions at meta-systemic levels. These 28 perspectives illuminate the process of evolutionary dialectical counteractions and interactions. (These 28 dialectical perspectives are described in Otto Laske's landmark book Measuring Hidden Dimensions of Human Systems Volume 2.) 

6. Please always remember that continuous collapse and rebirth are entirely natural parts of the Earth's long-term evolutionary history. Click here for a good explanation of this time-tested and proven evolutionary principle.

Furthermore, we believe it is morally and ethically grossly irresponsible for anyone to promote a highly probable vision of a climate change-driven total extinction and focus people away from continuous, direct action to get our governments to prevent this outcome. Such action is especially reprehensible, while we still have the rapidly diminishing option to avoid total extinction and save as many people as possible during the near-total extinction processes as described above.

Below please see how poorly we are currently doing regarding atmospheric carbon levels (CO2) in getting close to the required 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.

 

 

We leave you with this balancing quote from the Post Carbon Institute:

“In reality, there are degrees of collapse, and history shows that the process has usually taken decades and sometimes centuries to unfold, often in stair-steps punctuated by periods of partial recovery. Further, it may be possible to intervene in collapse to improve outcomes—for ourselves, our communities, our species, and thousands of other species.

After the collapse of the Roman Empire, medieval Irish monks may have “saved civilization” by memorizing and transcribing ancient texts. Could we, with planning and motivation, do as much for the best of our civilization?

Will the new ClimateSafe Villages project be like the monasteries of old?

What you can do with today about our climate change-driven nightmare and your and humanity's survival

In this article, we said the coming widespread global collapse and breakdown process would be a long, excruciating, and painful process for humanity to endure and recover from. The climate change-driven widespread collapse and breakdown process, which we all will go through before humanity's climate change-related recovery, is described in incredible step-by-step, phase-by-phase detail in this link.

We strongly recommend you read this link to know the step-by-step, phase-by-phase global nightmare that is coming and primarily unavoidable due to our 60 years of failing to fix climate change after we were warned by our best scientists what would happen if we did not act 60 years ago. Once you have read this link, it will help you understand why you must immediately start preparing for and adapting to the soon-arriving and exceedingly challenging times ahead.

Once you have read the preceding link, you also should be highly motivated to click here to go to our comprehensive Plan B climate change preparation, adaptation, resilience, relocation, and recovery plan, which will:

a. help protect and preserve your loved ones, businesses, and assets.

b. help you act in effective ways to get our governments to act before it is too late for most all of humanity.

Click here for our recommended action timeframe page for how soon we must act, depending on location and other circumstances.

Click here if you are a victim of climate change damage or loss and you want to get financial and other forms of restitution for the damages you have suffered.

Click Here Now if You Are Ready to Vote if the Global Fossil fuel Cartel is Guilty of Causing Climate change and Financially Responsible for all Climate change Loss and Damage.

Important Additional Reading

Please also click here to read about relevant human history, planetary evolution, the many extinction threats, and facts to add more of a "big picture" balance to your perspective on why total human extinction is very unlikely.

Important Technical Notes:

1. This article resulted from a new dialectical meta-systemic and system theory-based analysis of the most recent climate research viewing the climate as a complex adaptive system. On Earth, nothing takes place in a vacuum. For every action, there is some counteraction. For every action (consequence) you have read about on this website, there could also be various counteractions from both "Mother Nature" and our many human systems and organizations. All possible counteractions must always be carefully weighed, considered, and included in any legitimate problem threat and risk analysis. 
2. This article was based on a careful re-examination of current relevant climate change research and the contexts, processes, relationships, and transformations occurring within the climate's dynamic, interconnected, and interdependent systems and subsystems. During this process, we discovered that some natural and many human system counteractions (some in helpful climate feedback loops and tipping points) were not adequately considered or weighted adequately within our earlier climate research and also within other climate change researcher climate and global heating consequence predictions and timetables.  
3. If we reach an increase of 4-6 degrees Celsius in average global temperature, we will experience vast releases of stored carbon and methane from our oceans, soils, trees, and coastal ocean shelves. But, it is highly improbable we will reach these temperature levels because of the natural and human counteractions described above. As temperatures rise, the human die-off will be so steep that there will not be enough of us left burning fossil fuels to be able to reach a 4-6 degrees Celsius level. For the last six decades, it has taken about 25 additional carbon parts per million (ppm) to be added to the atmosphere to raise the average global temperature by 1/2 degree Fahrenheit. (One degree Celcius is equal to about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.) That means that at the current level of adding three new carbon ppm per year to our atmosphere, it takes 8+ years to raise the average global temperature by 1/2 degree Fahrenheit. We have presently raised the average global temperature by 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. This means we have another 2.8 degrees of Celsius to go before entering a hazardous area for total extinction. Getting to 4 degrees Celcius will take about 40-50 years. By then, much of humanity will be long dead, and our greenhouse gas levels will have stopped rising (possibly even dropping a bit), preventing us from reaching 4 degrees Celsius. For the sake of wild argument, even if we cross additional global heating tipping points that cause a 50% reduction in the total time left to prevent reaching 4 degrees Celsius, so many of us will die off in the next 20-30 years, we will still not add enough additional fossil fuel pollutants in parts per million to the atmosphere to reach the 4 degrees Celsius level.It is important to note that if we get close to a 3-degree Celsius increase in global temperature, it will be all but impossible to stop humanity from reaching 4°C.
4. Anyone saying that the climate science shows that All of humanity will invariably go extinct from runaway global warming consequences does not understand there are no 100% certainties in science because new discoveries are constantly qualified and adjusted by older research.
5. Current dialectical meta-systemic analysis of recent climate research does not support the wild predictions of a climate-driven total human extinction in 10, 20, 30, or even 40 years. We have time left to act, and at worst, we will only suffer a near-total extinction, but we need everyone immediately rowing in the same direction at full strength to minimize future human extinction losses and collapse-related suffering. 

Other Collapse-Related Studies

1. According to a 2020 study published in Scientific Reports, if deforestation and resource consumption (aka overshoot) continue at current rates, they could culminate in a "catastrophic collapse in human population" and possibly "an irreversible collapse of our civilization" in the next 20 to 40 years.
2. If we miss the 2025 targets by a lot, there will just be far fewer of us (near-total extinction) than if we got close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. If we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets altogether and for considerably longer than the next ten years, then there is a strong possibility that we could eventually go totally extinct because we have entered the fourth and fifth phases of irreversible runaway global heating discussed on this page. 
3. According to the most optimistic scenario provided by another study, the chance that human civilization survives is less than 10%. (See Nafeez, Ahmed. "Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Several Decades". Vice. Retrieved 2 August 2021. Also see Bologna, M.; Aquino, G. (2020). "Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis." Scientific Reports. 10 (7631): 7631. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-63657-6. PMC 7203172. PMID 32376879.) 
4. The gold standard for collapse studies and research is found in the book The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph A Tainter. The Collapse of Complex Societies, along with the book Overshoot by Willian R Catton Jr., is the absolute minimum required reading to think rationally and comprehensibly about the causes and issues surrounding global collapse and mass extinction.

For answers to all of your questions about climate change and global warming, click here for our new climate change FAQ. It has over one hundred of the most asked questions and answers about climate change and our future.

Last updated 10.24.23

Prologue

If you have not done so already, please read this essential page before doing elevator pitches. We have discovered that it is best to break the climate change progress and safety illusion as soon as possible to be an effective climate change educator. This is because 99.9% of people do not understand how bad the climate change situation actually is because of what they have been hearing for years about climate change from the government and in the media.

The best way to break this illusion is to have them examine and learn about the global fossil fuel cartel's climate change disinformation and fossil fuel reduction obstruction campaigns found on this page. The new facts on this page and its links will make individuals seriously doubt what they have been told about the climate change emergency in the media and from the government.

Unless individuals understand they have been cleverly, consistently and intentionally deceived by false fossil fuel cartel generated climate disinformation (which they previously believed was true), they will not be able to easily or quickly digest the correct facts about our current climate change emergency and accordingly they will not be motivated to do anything about it. (This proven deception-exposing process is known as "false data stripping." It greatly expedites getting at and to the truth.)

Telling people as soon as possible that almost everything they have heard about climate change consequences and timeframes has been underestimated by 20-40% or more, and then exposing the fossil fuel cartel's disinformation and obstruction campaigns is effective. 

Sooner or later, you will have to wake others up to the big lies they are still continuously hearing from their governments, the media, and most environmental groups, that are also unknowingly using global fossil fuel cartel-infected disinformation.

When you directly confront fossil fuel cartel disinformation and obstruction early in your climate educational actions, you are also using the principle found in the martial art called Aikido. The principle is simple. You use the energy, the direction, and the power of the attacker and the attack directed at you as the primary way to overcome the attacker. When you bring the hidden fossil fuel cartel disinformation into disinfecting light, you use the peaceful, wise, and very successful principle of the Akido martial art to disempower and break the disinformation cycle.

Additionally, when most people find out they have been systematically deceived on a life-and-death issue that will also cause them great financial loss, they not only become angry, they become highly motivated. Please break the fossil fuel cartel disinformation cycle with everyone in your network.

Introduction

Here is our "elevator pitch" of the climate change and runaway global heating education movement. An elevator pitch is a Silicon Valley-originated term. It is a short several-minute statement about what is essential about something you should be involved in. 

It can be delivered in about the same time it would take for you to share an elevator with someone in a tall building, hence the elevator pitch. It is designed to capture attention with a critical mystery so the person will eventually want to know more.

There are three elevator pitches below; pick the ones you think would work best for you. Remember that everyone you speak to will potentially speak to others and help fix this climate change nightmare.

Once you have completed an elevator pitch successfully and the person seems interested, send them to go to the Job One for Humanity website and ask them to sign up for more information; we help keep them interested and involved from there. If possible, keep in touch with them and follow up if they have questions. 

 

 

 

 

Elevator Pitch One: Are You Aware of These Basic But Essential Climate Change Facts

Ask people questions to start the climate change conversation. Here are some powerful questions to open a conversation; they are best asked in the order given. These questions are designed to relate climate change and fossil fuel use to something they already know is very bad, pollution. It is important to appeal indirectly to their emotions, particularly in questions three and four.

It is important to understand who are the best prospects to give an elevator climate pitch to and who is not! Before doing any elevator pitches, read this page for critical tips on success.

1. The following can also be emailed to your networks.

"Over the last sixty years, almost every consequence and timeframe we have been told about climate change from our governments, the media, and even most all environmental groups has been underestimated by 20 to 40% or even more. These groups have also unknowingly spread other dangerous climate change disinformation designed to make you feel safe and that we are making climate change progress when neither is true.

If you want to discover the uncensored and actual climate change facts or how this underestimation and disinformation happened, click here to learn how you have been systematically deceived by the global fossil fuel cartel about climate change for over sixty years."

2. Did you know that climate change is dangerous and deadly air pollution caused by humanity burning fossil fuels? (Continuing to burn additional fossil fuels creates an ever thicker blanket of carbon and other greenhouse gas pollution (methane and nitrous oxide) in our atmosphere, trapping ever-increasing levels of heat on Earth.) 

3. Did you know that fossil fuel burning air pollution, directly or indirectly, causes record-breaking; heatwaves, heat domes, droughts, hurricanes, cyclones, tornados, floods and flooding, rain bombs, wind storms [Derechos], dust storms, wildfires, wildfire smoke events, unseasonable cold spells, and other abnormal and unseasonal weather?

4. Did you know that heat-increasing polluting greenhouse gases, like carbon, the largest one, remain in our atmosphere for centuries to thousands of years? This long-term persistence of carbon in our atmosphere means that the relatively stable weather you experienced when you were younger is now gone forever, or at least until all of the additional fossil fuel-burning carbon, which we have been polluting our atmosphere with since the beginning of the industrial revolution has been removed (hundreds to thousands of years from now.) 

5. Did you know that not only is the relative stability of the climate of your younger memories gone forever, every day, as humanity burns more fossil fuels (which adds even more greenhouse gas pollution to our atmosphere,) we will continue to break new records and make today's existing climate change problems and weather significantly worse in our own future and for the future four children and future generations? 

 

Elevator Pitch Two: The Climate Change Emergency is Much Worse Than You Are being Told

Only when we can finally see the climate change emergency as it truly is will we be able to fix it. The following elevator speech contains the highly probable and almost certain most essential facts about our current climate change emergency. 

It is important to understand who are the best prospects to give an elevator climate pitch to and who is not! Before doing any elevator pitches, read this page for critical tips on success.

Here it is:

"I have a couple of quick questions. I would love to hear your opinion. Do you believe that the global fossil fuel cartel might try to buy off politicians with huge campaign donations to prevent fossil fuel use reductions and protect their massive profits? Do you believe that politicians might lie to you about how bad climate change will get to protect their cushy jobs and not your best interests?

(Listen to their answer, and if they say yes, and are open to the idea that current climate change information might be being manipulated, continue with the rest of the pitch.)

Since you believe that is possible, some painful climate change facts have been hidden from you through both censorship and underestimation by the global fossil fuel cartel, your politicians, and your governments.

Here are those quick facts:

1. Our governments have squandered six decades and have totally failed to resolve the climate change emergency. Because of this gross government failure, we have already locked ourselves into the first phase of runaway global heating.

2. If we keep going as we are now, sometime between 2025 and 2031, we will cross an atmospheric carbon pollution threshold level of 425-450 ppm. This is the level where humanity enters the second phase of runaway global heating. 

3. When we pass this carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, we accelerate the processes of our own extinction even faster because:

a. Climate change's consequences will radically increase in frequency, severity, and scale.

b. We will trigger additional amplifying climate feedback loops at faster rates. And,

c. We will soon cross the second (of four) extinction-accelerating climate tipping points.

4. Entering the second phase of runaway global heating will also cause the inescapable climate consequence of about half of humanity dying by about mid-century. 

5. The good news is we can still save the surviving portion of humanity past mid-century from near-total extinction (occurring about 2050-2080.)

6. To protect the possible post-mid-century surviving remnants of humanity, our governments must act now and get close to reaching the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. These honest global fossil fuel reduction targets require ALL developed countries (including China and India) to compel their citizens to reduce ALL fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025.

7. What will you do to prevent this nightmare from happening?" Have you heard about the Job One for Humanity Climate Change Emergency Plan? It will help mobilize our governments, help protect individuals and businesses, and help individuals safely prepare for and adapt to the many catastrophic climate consequences we can no longer avoid!

Please use the above unsettling global warming "elevator pitch" whenever possible to open conversations on the climate emergency. Then, when they ask you for more information to explain or justify the pitch, please give them the (JobOneforHumanity.org) website or get their email address and send them the link to the essential climate facts that will explain the facts in detail and with documentation. 

The above elevator pitch should make new people so curious that they will want to read your email link (or go to our website) to discover how possible what you said could be. This new elevator speech is intentionally meant to disrupt the ignorance and complacency surrounding the painful, actual facts of our runaway global heating extinction emergency. 

Try it out and watch the reactions. Even though a good portion of individuals will ignore further research, it plants a seed in their minds so that when they see the next set of climate disasters unfolding, they will remember what you said to them. 

Besides locally discussing the climate elevator pitch below, please feel free to email or post it online (with its links) anywhere you like. You can print it out as a handout as well.

 

Elevator Pitch Three: The Global Fossil Fuel Cartel is censoring and distorting Critical Climate Facts Needed to Fix the Climate Change Emergency 

Like in pitch two, ask the person the following questions:

1. Do you believe the global fossil fuel cartel might try to buy off politicians with huge campaign donations to prevent fossil fuel use reductions and protect their massive profits? 

2. Do you believe politicians might lie to you about how bad climate change will get to protect their cushy jobs and not your best interests?

(Listen to their answer; if they seem unsure or dubious that current climate change information might be being manipulated, use the pitch below but deliver it in your own words. Use as much or as little of the following as you think it is necessary to open the person to understand and become open to that almost everything they have heard about climate change from the media, the government, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) and even most environmental groups has been underestimated by 20-40% because of the hidden and insidious global fossil fuel cartel tactics. 

It is important to understand who are the best prospects to give an elevator climate pitch to and who is not! Before doing any elevator pitches, read this page for critical tips on success.

I believe that the global fossil fuel cartel is the dominant hidden and invisible hand that distorts, underestimates, and unduly influences the climate change information you receive from your government, the media, and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC)! The underhanded climate censorship-enabling actions of the global fossil fuel cartel are the over-arching reason our governments have not fixed the climate change emergency over the last sixty-plus years. 

Let me explain.

To open your mind to begin to clearly see the hidden and invisible hand that censors and distorts almost all climate change information you are receiving, it is useful to cover some history that everyone already knows to be true. The global cigarette industry has a proven record of ten decades of successful misinformation, disinformation, false cigarette health risk studies, and funding of "independent" think tanks to produce questionable research saying smoking was not dangerous. The cigarette industry also has an extensive public record of engaging in many undue influence and government regulation delaying tactics. 

Like the cigarette industry's tactics, the far better-funded global fossil fuel cartel's disinformation, regulation-delaying practices, and other tactics have successfully kept uncensored climate change facts and solutions from you, our governments, and the media for over six decades! 

Does that statement seem not possible? For decades, the global cigarette industry convinced the world's politicians and citizens that cigarettes did not cause lung cancer, health problems, or death with only a fraction of the global fossil fuel cartel's 28 trillion dollar-a-year income. 

The fossil fuel cartel's lavishly-funded climate censorship actions are as follows:

Global disinformation campaigns to make you believe we are making progress in fixing climate change when we are not.

Global misinformation campaigns by funding think tanks and others to continuously create and spread clever new false doubts or confusion about the causes, consequences, progress, and solutions surrounding climate change and the damages the fossil fuel cartel's products produce (without looking like this false information is coming from the fossil fuel industry.)

Successfully delaying or killing government-level regulations designed to reduce fossil fuel usage or make the fossil fuel industry pay for the deadly pollution and other dangerous, costly consequences its products cause.

Using climate change distortion tactics like creating false hopes that new technologies like carbon capture (or old technologies like the increased use of "cleaner" propane) will protect us now, save us at the last minute, or that we do not need to radically reduce our fossil fuel use immediately. The insidious purpose for creating these false hope and false progress distortion campaigns is to make you feel safe and secure when you are not and make you believe we are making the needed steady progress in fixing climate change when we are not. If you think there is no dire problem, you will do nothing to demand your politicians act to fix it. 

The global fossil fuel cartel is using the above tactics for one major reason, trillions of dollars in profits are at stake. Additionally, they are doing it because if the world's citizens knew the real climate change facts (found on this website) and understood that the global fossil fuel cartel had deliberately deceived them for decades, they would angrily demand that their politicians radically cut global fossil fuel use immediately. 

If you still think what we say about the global fossil fuel cartel distorting, censoring, and unduly influencing our governments, the media, and the climate summary work and climate solutions of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) is untrue. Click here to see the hundreds of well-documented articles about the many ways and tactics the global fossil fuel cartel uses to ensure that our governments, the media, the United Nations, and the world's citizens do not ever demand reduced global fossil fuel use to the required levels to save their own lives and the lives of their children. If you are a science person, click here for a deep dive into how the global fossil fuel cartel has corrupted and censored most of what you hear today about climate change.

It is bitterly painful when you, too, finally realize that the global fossil fuel cartel is entirely willing to sacrifice the lives and assets of billions of people and your children to satisfy their unquenchable greed for more profit (more super-yachts, more palaces, and more ridiculously luxurious lifestyles for key fossil fuel cartel owners, executives, and investors, etc.)

 

 

Additional essential climate change and atmospheric carbon history to help you frame and understand the candid directness of our new climate elevator pitches

 

 

1. Humanity thrived for millennia when atmospheric carbon was at the 270 to 280 ppm level. 

2. We would have stayed safe from runaway global warming and its extinction-triggering climate tipping points if we ONLY stayed at or below the carbon 350 ppm level. Since passing the carbon 386 ppm level in 2015, we have already triggered the climate tipping point and climate feedback loop stacking effect (like falling dominos) first disclosed by James Hansen, the NASA climate scientist.

2. In 2015, we hit the carbon 386 ppm level and entered the first stage of runaway global heating. 

 

 

3. Within 2-3 years, we will pass the carbon 425 ppm level. When we pass carbon 425 ppm level, we are already deep into the second phase of the runaway global warming process, and we trigger the first of four human extinction-accelerating tipping points. 

5. As of March 2022, we had already reached the very dangerous atmospheric carbon level of 420 ppm."

6. At the carbon 420 ppm level, we have already activated the crossing of ever more climate tipping points and climate feedback loops that will keep raising the average global temperature until we make the required, radical, and painful 2025 target reductions in our global fossil fuel use. 

7. Twenty-six international climate conferences over many decades have produced no results. On the contrary, carbon in the atmosphere has only got worse. The latest 27th conference in Egypt in 2022 was also another bust. 

 

 

 

 

The climate change elevator pitch below will surprise and shock some individuals who hear it, but shocking someone into awareness and action is both legitimate and necessary. This is particularly true in a life-and-death emergency, as we are now accelerating climate change. 

If, after reading the elevator pitch below, you are reluctant to share it with others, we ask that you thoroughly read the three links below. After reading the climate science on these two pages, we believe you may become as motivated as we are and have no problem educating those around you on the actual urgency of our current climate emergency. 

Read about these four extinction-accelerating climate tipping points first.

Next, please read about how our world's current major crisis will interact with climate change's escalating primary and secondary consequences, bringing about mass to near-total human extinction.

And finally, if you are still reluctant to share our quite intense elevator pitch below, please read about the ethical principles of necessary educational disruption regarding our accelerating climate change emergency.

Never forget that we will not be able to fix the climate change emergency until we individually and collectively compel our governments to face and fix its real and painful facts! 

Still, Have doubts?

The honest 2025 global fossil fuel reduction target is so high solely because our governments squandered sixty years when the required reductions could have been gradual and more manageable. 

When you hear the media or politicians tell you we only have to reduce global fossil fuel use by 40% by 2030, or 50% by 2040, or 2050 they are dead wrong. If our governments use those grossly underestimated global fossil fuel reduction targets, billions more of us will soon be dead. 

Within about three years (at best eight years if we are very lucky), our governments must mass mobilize and enact an effective climate plan covering ALL of the best possible options and worst possible outcomes and reduce global fossil fuel use in all developed countries by 75% or more. 

Many positive possibilities will occur when our governments finally fix the climate change runaway global heating emergency. If we are successful, humanity and our nations will experience many surprising benefits and possibly even a Great Global Rebirth.

Never forget we have only 3 to, at best, eight years left to reduce all global fossil fuel use in all developed nations by 75%. When we pass the carbon 425-450 threshold, we enter the second irreversible phase of runaway global heating and into an accelerating human die-off that not even the most innovative scientists from Oxford, Harvard, Cambridge, Yale, Stanford, University of California Berkeley, and MIT will be able to stop until almost all of us are dead. 

From the preceding painful climate facts on can clearly see, one can see that the March 2022 carbon 420 level is far beyond any reasonable and safe atmospheric carbon level and well into the stacking (domino) effect of runaway global warming. At this carbon 420 ppm level, our atmospheric carbon level is about 155% greater than the long-term humanity-thriving atmospheric carbon level of 270 ppm.

How much higher does this percentage of atmospheric carbon have to rise beyond the last safe level of carbon 350 ppm before we collectively realize that we are rapidly approaching a mass to near-total extinction danger?

One must first understand the essence of the problem and its real deadlines before one can fix it. You now understand the consequences of our runaway global heating problem.

Please click here if you do not believe that it is now unavoidable that about half of humanity will go extinct by mid-century if we fail to get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. The first link will take you to the many global heating-related consequences unfolding in this nightmare process.

If you doubt the accuracy of the above runaway global heating truth, please go to this page. It will take you through all of the supporting facts, illustrations, deadlines, and scientific information.

Our climate change and runaway global heating extinction threat in a nutshell 

For decades, cigarette companies hid the dangers of their products with misinformation and disinformation and stopped anti-smoking legislation. Likewise, for decades, the 28 trillion dollar-a-year global fossil fuel industry has hidden fossil fuel's global heating dangers with massive misinformation and disinformation campaigns, and they have stopped legislation designed to reduce national and international fossil fuel use gradually.  

Because of that six-decade delay in reducing fossil fuel use caused directly by the massive misinformation and disinformation campaigns of the fossil fuel industry, half of humanity will now unavoidably die by mid-century! Be clear about this. This mass die-off will be caused by the massive misinformation and disinformation campaigns of the fossil fuel industry and the escalating consequences of runaway global heating from burning their fossil fuels. 

So, the only remaining questions are:

What will you do to push the world to meet the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets? 

What will you do to save yourself and the half of humanity that can still be saved? 

This IS everyone's clear, urgent, and last-chance call to action. 

 

 

 

If you are a member of Generation X, Y, or Z. In that case, whether you realize it or not, the above two questions above will become a central question for the rest of your life. They must be planned for and acted upon. If not, you will likely become part of that half or more of humanity that doesn't make it through the runaway global heating extinction emergency.

Get into action

Please click this link and make a pledge to start the actions needed to protect yourself, humanity, and all life on Earth from runaway global heating.

Click here to begin the Job One Action plan and help us start to fix this mess.

If you have not done so already, click here to read about the many benefits of global heating and climate change. This benefits page is the most read page of our website, with over 2 million visits.

How can you and I face the predicament that humankind and modern civilization have created? 

Read more

Last Updated 7.31.24

Overview

Job One for Humanity, founded in 2008, is a non-profit, 100% publicly funded, independent climate change think tank that provides a holistic "big picture" climate overview and uncensored dialectical meta-systemic analysis of the inter-connected and inter-dependent climate systems and sub-systems creating our current climate change and runaway global heating emergency. 

Our organization supplies research-grounded climate change consequence analysis, timeframes, risk assessment, and solutions to educational, climate, and environmental organizations worldwide without charge. We also provide a fee-based climate analysis, risk assessment, and solutions service to insurance companies, governments, and businesses affected by climate change emergencies.

 

 

While we do not do in-house original climate research, we use the underlying published research papers of independent and respected climate scientists and the climate research from organizations like the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA.) 

Please note that we do not use the IPCC's climate summary reports without first re-calculating or adjusting their summary reports because of the IPCC's extensive history of politicizing the climate science and grossly underestimating timelines and climate consequence intensity. (On this page and its links and sub-menus, you will find detailed explanations of the IPCC's history of politicizing the climate science and grossly underestimating timelines and climate consequence intensity.) 

Below you will find a long list of climate research papers and summary materials reviewed or used by our organization in its analysis, prediction, or recommendations. In addition to the long study reference list found below, many additional climate study references are also found:

1. in the body of many of our web pages, or in the end notes or technical notes found at the end of many of our website pages.

2. in the many available video presentations on our website by climate scientists or researchers describing their own research data. Click here to see an example of these videos. It is the renowned climate scientist Kevin Anderson presenting the climate emergency at Oxford University in England.

At the bottom of all of the study references below, you will also find additional sections on how we do our climate research and analysis. Below the long list of climate study references, on this page you will also find the following essential sections:

1. The unique and powerful review processes that we use for research and analysis at our independent, not-for-profit climate think tank. 

2. The validity and reliability limits of the climate science found on the Job One For Humanity website.

3. How to challenge the accuracy of any climate information you see on our website.

We provide our climate and global heating information for individuals and organizations with the understanding that they will independently evaluate it and decide upon its usefulness and accuracy based on the best climate science and analysis currently available.

 

Discover amazing information, tools, alerts, and promotional benefits for becoming a Job One for Humanity climate change think tank donor/supporter/member by clicking here!

How to challenge anything you find on our website

Go to this page and follow the instructions.

 

Here is our extensive, but still partial, master list of climate research papers and summaries

In addition to the published climate research from organizations like the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), we also use research from independent and respected climate scientists and researchers like those listed below.

James Hansen is one of the world's leading independent climate change and global heating scientists and authorities. He is an American adjunct professor directing the Program on Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He is best known for his research in climatology, his 1988 Congressional testimony on climate change that helped raise broad awareness of global warming, and his advocacy of action to avoid dangerous climate change. In recent years he has become a climate activist to mitigate the effects of global warming.

 

 

We rely regularly upon his research. He was one of the first and most active climate scientists to warn the world about the extinction dangers of runaway global heating while working at NASA the space agency. See his many climate-related studies below:

2022 and 2023. We are in the process of posting recent studies. You can find many of these currently linked on the pages of this website.

2021

Hansen, J. Foreword: Uncensored science is crucial for global conservation

2020

Beerling, D.J., E.P. Kantzas. M.R. Lomas, P. Wade, R.M. Eufrasio, P. Renforth, B. Sarkar, M.G. Andrews, R.H. James, C.R. Pearce, J.-F. Mercure, H. Pollitt, P.B. Holden, N.R. Edwards, M. Khanna, L. Koh, S. Quegan, N.F. Pidgeon, I.A. Janssens, J. Hansen, and S.A. Banwart, 2020: Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands, Nature 583, 242-248, doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2448-9.

Rye, C.D., J.Marshall, M. Kelley, G. Russell, L.S. Nazarenko, Y. Kostov, G.A. Schmidt, and J. Hansen, 2020: Antarctic Glacial Melt as a Driver of Recent Southern Ocean Climate Trends, Geophysical Research Letters 47, 11, doi:10.1029/2019GL086892.

von Schuckmann, K., L. Cheng, M.D. Palmer, J. Hansen et al., 2020: Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?, Earth System Science Data 12, 2013-2041, doi:10.5195/essd-12-2013-2020.

2019

Miller, D.H. and J.E. Hansen, 2019: Why Fee and Dividend Will Reduce Emissions Faster Than Other Carbon Pricing Policy Options, OurEnergyLibrary, Response to the Request for Information from the United States House of Representatives Select Committee on the Climate Crisis.

Lenssen, N.J.L., G.A. Schmidt, J.E. Hansen, M.J. Menne, A. Persin, R. Ruedy, and D. Zyss, 2019: Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, no. 12, 6307-6326, doi:10.1029/2018JD029522.

2018

Hansen, J., P. Kharecha, 2018: Cost of carbon capture: Can young people bear the burden?, Joule, 2, 1405-1407.

Beerling, D.J., J.R. Leake, S.P. Long, J.D. Scholes, J. Ton, P.N. Nelson, M. Bird, E. Kantzas, L.L. Taylor, B. Sarkar, M. Kelland, E. DeLucia, I. Kantola, C. Muller, G.H. Rau and J. Hansen, 2018: Farming with crops and rocks to address global climate, food and soil security, Nature Plants, 4, 138-147, doi:10.1038/s41477-018-0108-y.

2017

Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, K. von Schuckmann, D.J. Beerling, J. Cao, S. Marcott, V. Masson-Delmotte, M.J. Prather, E.J. Rohling, J. Shakun, P. Smith, A. Lacis, G. Russell, and R. Ruedy, 2017: Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions. Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577-616, doi:10.5194/esd-8-577-2017.

2016

Cao, J, A. Cohen, J. Hansen, R. Lester, P. Peterson and H. Xu , 2016: China-U.S. cooperation to advance nuclear power. Science, 353, 547-548. doi: 10.1126/science.aaf7131.

Hansen, J., and M. Sato, 2016: Regional Climate Change and National Responsibilities Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009 (9 pp.), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034009.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley, V. Masson-Delmotte, G. Russell, G. Tselioudis, J. Cao, E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, B. Tormey, B. Donovan, E. Kandiano, K. von Schuckmann, P. Kharecha, A.N. Legrande, M. Bauer, and K.-W. Lo, 2016: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms:/ evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761-3812. doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, K. von Schuckmann, D.J. Beerling, J. Cao, S. Marcott, V. Masson-Delmotte, M.J. Prather, E.J. Rohling, J. Shakun, P. Smith, 2016: Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions. Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., doi:10.5194/esd-2016-42, Published 4 October 2016.

Taylor, L.L., J. Quirk, R.M.S. Thorley, P.A. Kharecha, J. Hansen, A. Ridgwell, M.R. Lomas, S.A. Banwart, D.J. Beerling, 2016: Enhanced weathering strategies for stabilizing climate and averting ocean acidification. Nature Climate Change, 6, 402-406. doi:10.1038/nclimate2882.

von Schuckmann, K., M.D. Palmer, K.E. Trenberth, A. Cazenave, D. Chambers, N. Champollion, J. Hansen, S.A. Josey, N. Loeb, P.-P. Mathieu, B. Meyssignac, M. Wild, 2016: An imperative to monitor Earth's energy imbalance Nature Climate Change 6, 138-144, doi:10.1038/nclimate2876.

2015

Hansen, J., 2015: Environment and Development Challenges: The Imperative of a Carbon Fee and Dividend. The Oxford Handbook of the Macroeconomics of Global Warming, Eds. Lucas Bernard and Willi Semmler, Chapter 26, doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199856978.013.0026.

Hansen, J., M. Sato. P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley, V. Masson-Delmotte, G. Russell, G. Tselioudis, J. Cao, E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, E. Kandiano, K. von Schuckmann, P. Kharecha, A.N. Legrande, M. Bauer, and K.-W. Lo, 2015: Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2 C Global Warming is Highly Dangerous. Published in Atmos. Chem. & Phys. Discussions (July 23).

Nazarenko, L., G.A. Schmidt, R.L. Miller, N. Tausnev, M. Kelley, R. Ruedy, G.L. Russell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, S. Bauer, R. Bleck, V. Canuto, Y. Cheng, T.L. Clune, A.D. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, J.E. Hansen, R.J. Healy, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, A.A. Lacis, A.N. LeGrande, J. Lerner, K.K. Lo, S. Menon, V. Oinas, J.P. Perlwitz, M.J. Puma, D. Rind, A. Romanou, M. Sato, D.T. Shindell, S. Sun, K. Tsigaridis, N. Unger, A. Voulgarakis, M.-S. Yao, and J. Zhang, 2015: Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 7, no. 1, 244-267, doi:10.1002/2014MS000403.

2014

Hansen, J. 2014: The Energy to Fight Injustice. Chemistry World, 23 July 2014.

Miller, R.L., G.A. Schmidt, L.S. Nazarenko, N. Tausnev, S.E. Bauer, A.D. Del Genio, M. Kelley, K.K. Lo, R. Ruedy, D.T. Shindell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, R. Bleck, V. Canuto, Y.-H. Chen, Y. Cheng, T.L. Clune, G. Faluvegi, J.E. Hansen, R.J. Healy, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, A.A. Lacis, A.N. LeGrande, J. Lerner, S. Menon, V. Oinas, C. PC)rez GarcC-a-Pando, J.P. Perlwitz, M.J. Puma, D. Rind, A. Romanou, G.L. Russell, M. Sato, S. Sun, K. Tsigaridis, N. Unger, A. Voulgarakis, M.-S. Yao, and J. Zhang, 2014: CMIP5 historical simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, no. 2, 441-477, doi:10.1002/2013MS000266.

Schmidt, G.A., M. Kelley, L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, G.L. Russell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, S.E. Bauer, M.K. Bhat, R. Bleck, V. Canuto, Y.-H. Chen, Y. Cheng, T.L. Clune, A. Del Genio, R. de Fainchtein, G. Faluvegi, J.E. Hansen, R.J. Healy, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, A.A. Lacis, A.N. LeGrande, J. Lerner, K.K. Lo, E.E. Matthews, S. Menon, R.L. Miller, V. Oinas, A.O. Oloso, J.P. Perlwitz, M.J. Puma, W.M. Putman, D. Rind, A. Romanou, M. Sato, D.T. Shindell, S. Sun, R.A. Syed, N. Tausnev, K. Tsigaridis, N. Unger, A. Voulgarakis, M.-S. Yao, and J. Zhang, 2014: Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, 141-184, doi:10.1002/2013MS000265.

2013

Hansen, J., P. Kharecha, and M. Sato, 2013: Climate forcing growth rates: Doubling down on our Faustian bargain. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 011006, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/011006.

Hansen, J., P. Kharecha, M. Sato, V. Masson-Delmotte, F. Ackerman, D.J. Beerling, P. Hearty, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, S.-L. Hsu, C. Parmesan, J. Rockstrom, E.J. Rohling, J. Sachs, P. Smith, K. Steffen, L. Van Susteren, K. von Schuckmann, J.C. Zachos, 2013: Assessing "Dangerous Climate Change": Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature. PLOS ONE, 8, e81468.

 

Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 2013a: Reply to Rhines and Huybers: Changes in the frequency of extreme summer heat. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110, E547-E548, doi:10.1073/pnas.1220916110.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 2013b: Reply to Stone et al.: Human-made role in local temperature extremes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110, E1544, doi:10.1073/pnas.1301494110.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, G. Russell, and P. Kharecha, 2013: Climate sensitivity, sea level, and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371, 20120294, doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0294.

Kharecha, P.A., and J.E. Hansen, 2013a: Prevented mortality and greenhouse gas emissions from historical and projected nuclear power. Environ. Sci. Technol., 47, 4889-4895, doi:10.1021/es3051197.

Kharecha, P.A., and J.E. Hansen, 2013b: Response to comment on "Prevented mortality and greenhouse gas emissions from historical and projected nuclear power". Environ. Sci. Technol., 47, 6718-6719, doi:10.1021/es402211m.

Kharecha, P., and J.E. Hansen, 2013c: Response to comment by Rabilloud on "Prevented mortality and greenhouse gas emissions from historical and projected nuclear power". Environ. Sci. Technola., 47, 13900-13901, doi:10.1021/es404806w.

Lacis, A.A., J.E. Hansen, G.L. Russell, V. Oinas, and J. Jonas, 2013: The role of long-lived greenhouse gases as principal LW control knob that governs the global surface temperature for past and future climate change". Tellus B, 65, 19734, doi:10.3402/tellusb.v65i0.19734.

Previdi, M., B.G. Liepert, D. Peteet, J. Hansen, D.J. Beerling, A.J. Broccoli, S. Frolking, J.N. Galloway, M. Heimann, C. Le Quéré, S. Levitus, and V. Ramaswamy, 2013: Climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 139, 1121-1131, doi:10.1002/qj.2165.

2012

Hansen, J.E., and M. Sato, 2012: Paleoclimate implications for human-made climate change. In Climate Change: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects. A. Berger, F. Mesinger, and D. Šijački, Eds. Springer, pp. 21-48, doi:10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 2012: Perception of climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 109, 14726-14727, E2415-E2423, doi:10.1073/pnas.1205276109.

Rohling, E.J., A. Sluijs, H.A. Dijkstra, P. Köhler, R.S.W. van de Wal, A.S. von der Heydt, D.J. Beerling, A. Berger, P.K. Bijl, M. Crucifix, R. DeConto, S.S. Drijfhout, A. Fedorov, G.L. Foster, A. Ganopolski, J. Hansen, B. Hönisch, H. Hooghiemstra, M. Huber, P. Huybers, R. Knutti, D.W. Lea, L.J. Lourens, D. Lunt, V. Masson-Demotte, M. Medina-Elizalde, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Pagani, H. Pälike, H. Renssen, D.L. Royer, M. Siddall, P. Valdes, J.C. Zachos, and R.E. Zeebe, 2012: Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, 491, 683-691, doi:10.1038/nature11574.

2011

Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, and K. von Schuckmann, 2011: Earth's energy imbalance and implications. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 13421-13449, doi:10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011.

2010

Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo, 2010: Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345

Kharecha, P.A., C.F. Kutscher, J.E. Hansen, and E. Mazria, 2010: Options for near-term phaseout of CO₂ emissions from coal use in the United States. Environ. Sci. Technol., 44, 4050-4062, doi:10.1021/es903884a.

Masson-Delmotte, V., B. Stenni, K. Pol, P. Braconnot, O. Cattani, S. Falourd, M. Kageyama, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, J.M. Barnola, J. Chappellaz, G. Krinner, S. Johnsen, R. Röthlisberger, J. Hansen, U. Mikolajewicz, and B. Otto-Bliesner, 2010: EPICA Dome C record of glacial and interglacial intensities. Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 113-128, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.09.030.

2009

Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F.S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T.M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C.A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P.K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R.W. Corell, V.J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley, 2009: Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecol. Soc., 14, no. 2, 32.

Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F.S. Chapin, III, E.F. Lambin, T.M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H.J. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C.A. de Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P.K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R.W. Corell, V.J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J.A. Foley, 2009: A safe operating space for humanity. Nature, 461, 472-475, doi:10.1038/461472a.

Xu, B., J. Cao, J. Hansen, T. Yao, D.J. Joswia, N. Wang, G. Wu, M. Wang, H. Zhao, W. Yang, X. Liu, and J. He, 2009: Black soot and the survival of Tibetan glaciers. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, 22114-22118 doi:10.1073/pnas.0910444106.

2008

Hansen, J., 2008: Tipping point: Perspective of a climatologist. In State of the Wild 2008-2009: A Global Portrait of Wildlife, Wildlands, and Oceansa. E. Fearn, Ed. Wildlife Conservation Society/Island Press, pp. 6-15.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D.L. Royer, and J.C. Zachos, 2008: Target atmospheric CO₂: Where should humanity aim? Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217-231, doi:10.2174/1874282300802010217.

Kharecha, P.A., and J.E. Hansen, 2008: Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO₂ and climate. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, GB3012, doi:10.1029/2007GB003142.

2007

Hansen, J.E., 2007a: Scientific reticence and sea level rise. Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 024002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002.

Hansen, J., 2007b: Climate catastrophe. New Scientist, 195, no. 2614 (July 28), 30-34.

Hansen, J., 2007c: Why we can't wait: A 5-step plan for solving the global crisis. Nation, 284, no. 18 (May 7), 13-14.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, G. Russell, D.W. Lea, and M. Siddall, 2007: Climate change and trace gases. Phil. Trans. Royal. Soc. A, 365, 1925-1954, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2052.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, P. Kharecha, A. Lacis, R.L. Miller, L. Nazarenko, K. Lo, G.A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, S. Bauer, E. Baum, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Cohen, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, J. Jonas, M. Kelley, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, G. Labow, J. Lerner, S. Menon, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, R. Schmunk, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, D. Streets, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, N. Unger, M. Yao, and S. Zhang, 2007:Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS ModelE. Clim. Dynam., 29, 661-696, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0255-8.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, P. Kharecha, A. Lacis, R.L. Miller, L. Nazarenko, K. Lo, G.A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, S. Bauer, E. Baum, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Cohen, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, J. Jonas, M. Kelley, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, G. Labow, J. Lerner, S. Menon, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, R. Schmunk, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, D. Streets, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, N. Unger, M. Yao, and S. Zhang, 2007:Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 2287-2312.

Mishchenko, M.I., B. Cairns, G. Kopp, C.F. Schueler, B.A. Fafaul, J.E. Hansen, R.J. Hooker, T. Itchkawich, H.B. Maring, and L.D. Travis, 2007: Accurate monitoring of terrestrial aerosols and total solar irradiance: Introducing the Glory mission. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 677-691, doi:10.1175/BAMS-88-5-677.

Nazarenko, L., N. Tausnev, and J. Hansen, 2007: The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation simulated by the GISS climate model during 1970-99. Atmos.-Ocean, 45, 81-92, doi:10.3137/ao.450202.

Novakov, T., S. Menon, T.W. Kirchstetter, D. Koch, and J.E. Hansen, 2007: Reply to comment by R. L. Tanner and D. J. Eatough on "Aerosol organic carbon to black carbon ratios: Analysis of published data and implications for climate forcing". J. Geophys. Res., 112, D02203, doi:10.1029/2006JD007941.

Rahmstorf, S., A. Cazenave, J.A. Church, J.E. Hansen, R.F. Keeling, D.E. Parker, and R.C.J. Somerville, 2007: Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science, 316, 709, doi:10.1126/science.1136843.

2006

Hansen, J., 2006. The threat to the planet. New York Rev. Books, 53, no. 12 (July 13, 2006), 12-16.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, K. Lo, D.W. Lea, and M. Medina-Elizade 2006. Global temperature change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 103, 14288-14293, doi:10.1073/pnas.0606291103.

Nazarenko, L., N. Tausnev, and J. Hansen 2006. Sea-ice and North Atlantic climate response to CO2-induced warming and cooling conditions. J. Glaciol. 52, 433-439.

Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, P.J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, M.F. Wehner, K. AchutaRao, T.P. Barnett, J.S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, M. Fiorino, N. Gillett, J.E. Hansen, P.D. Jones, S.A. Klein, G.A. Meehl, S.C.B. Raper, R.W. Reynolds, K.E. Taylor, and W.M. Washington 2006.Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 103, 13905-13910, doi:10.1073/pnas.0602861103.

Schmidt, G.A., R. Ruedy, J.E. Hansen, I. Aleinov, N. Bell, M. Bauer, S. Bauer, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, Y. Cheng, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, A.D. Friend, T.M. Hall, Y. Hu, M. Kelley, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, A.A. Lacis, J. Lerner, K.K. Lo, R.L. Miller, L. Nazarenko, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, G.L. Russell, Mki. Sato, D.T. Shindell, P.H. Stone, S. Sun, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, and M.-S. Yao 2006. Present day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: Comparison to in-situ, satellite and reanalysis data. J. Climate 19, 153-192, doi:10.1175/JCLI3612.1.

Shindell, D., G. Faluvegi, A. Lacis, J. Hansen, R. Ruedy, and E. Aguilar 2006. Role of tropospheric ozone increases in 20th century climate change. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D08302, doi:10.1029/2005JD006348.

Shindell, D.T., G. Faluvegi, R.L. Miller, G.A. Schmidt, J.E. Hansen, and S. Sun 2006. Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L24706, doi:10.1029/2006GL027468.

2005

Hansen, J.E. 2005. A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes "dangerous anthropogenic interference"? An editorial essay. Clim. Change 68, 269-279, doi:10.1007/s10584-005-4135-0.

Hansen, J., L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, J. Willis, A. Del Genio, D. Koch, A. Lacis, K. Lo, S. Menon, T. Tovakov, Ju. Perlwitz, G. Russell, G.A. Schmidt, and N. Tausnev 2005. Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science 308, 1431-1435, doi:10.1126/science.1110252.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, L. Nazarenko, A. Lacis, G.A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, S. Bauer, N. Bell, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, M. Kelley, N. Kiang, D. Koch, J. Lean, J. Lerner, K. Lo, S. Menon, R. Miller, P. Minnis, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, B. Wielicki, T. Wong, M. Yao, and S. Zhang 2005. Efficacy of climate forcings. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D18104, doi:10.1029/2005JD005776.

Koch, D., and J. Hansen 2005. Distant origins of Arctic black carbon: A Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE experiment. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D04204, doi:10.1029/2004JD005296.

Novakov, T., S. Menon, T.W. Kirchstetter, D. Koch, and J.E. Hansen 2005. Aerosol organic carbon to black carbon ratios: Analysis of published data and implications for climate forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D21205, doi:10.1029/2005JD005977.

Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, C. Mears, F.J. Wentz, S.A. Klein, D.J. Seidel, K.E. Taylor, P.W. Thorne, M.F. Wehner, P.J. Gleckler, J.S. Boyle, W.D. Collins, K.W. Dixon, C. Doutriaux, M. Free, Q. Fu, J.E. Hansen, G.S. Jones, R. Ruedy, T.R. Karl, J.R. Lanzante, G.A. Meehl, V. Ramaswamy, G. Russell, and G.A. Schmidt 2005. Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. Science 309, 1551-1556, doi:10.1126/science.1114867.

2004

Hansen, J., 2004. Defusing the global warming time bomb. Sci. Amer. 290, no. 3, 68-77.

Hansen, J., T. Bond, B. Cairns, H. Gaeggler, B. Liepert, T. Novakov, and B. Schichtel 2004. Carbonaceous aerosols in the industrial era.Eos Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union 85, no. 25, 241, 245.

Hansen, J., and L. Nazarenko 2004. Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 101, 423-428, doi:10.1073/pnas.2237157100.

Hansen, J., and M. Sato 2004. Greenhouse gas growth rates. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 101, 16109-16114, doi:10.1073/pnas.0406982101.

Mishchenko, M.I., B. Cairns, J.E. Hansen, L.D. Travis, R. Burg, Y.J. Kaufman, J.V. Martins, and E.P. Shettle 2004. Monitoring of aerosol forcing of climate from space: Analysis of measurement requirements. J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer 88, 149-161, doi:10.1016/j.jqsrt.2004.03.030.

Novakov, T., and J.E. Hansen 2004. Black carbon emissions in the United Kingdom during the past four decades: An empirical analysis.Atmos. Environ., 4155-4163, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.04.031.

2003

Hansen, J., 2003: Can we defuse the global warming time bomb? naturalScience, posted Aug. 1, 2003.

Novakov, T., V. Ramanathan, J.E. Hansen, T.W. Kirchstetter, M. Sato, J.E. Sinton, and J.A. Satahye, 2003: Large historical changes of fossil-fuel black carbon aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, no. 6, 1324, doi:10.1029/2002GL016345.

Santer, B.D., R. Sausen, T.M.L. Wigley, J.S. Boyle, K. AchutaRao, C. Doutriaux, J.E. Hansen, G.A. Meehl, E. Roeckner, R. Ruedy, G. Schmidt, and K.E. Taylor, 2003: Behavior of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses, and observations: Decadal changes. J. Geophys. Res., 108, no. D1, 4002, doi:10.1029/2002JD002258.

Sato, M., J. Hansen, D. Koch, A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, O. Dubovik, B. Holben, M. Chin, and T. Novakov, 2003: Global atmospheric black carbon inferred from AERONET. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 100, 6319-6324, doi:10.1073/pnas.0731897100.

Sun, S., and J.E. Hansen, 2003: Climate simulations for 1951-2050 with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. J. Climate, 16, 2807-2826, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2807:CSFWAC>2.0.CO;2.

2002

Hansen, J.E., 2002: A brighter future. Climatic Change, 52, 435-440, doi:10.1023/A:1014226429221.

Hansen, J.E. (Ed.), 2002: Air Pollution as a Climate Forcing: A Workshop. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Carmichael, G.R., D.G. Streets, G. Calori, M. Amann, M.Z. Jacobson, J. Hansen, and H. Ueda, 2002: Changing trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: Implications for acid deposition. Environ. Sci. Technol., 36, 4707-4713, doi:10.1021/es011509c.

Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo, 2002: Global warming continues. Science, 295, 275, doi:10.1126/science.295.5553.275c.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, D. Koch, I. Tegen, T. Hall, D. Shindell, B. Santer, P. Stone, T. Novakov, L. Thomason, R. Wang, Y. Wang, D. Jacob, S. Hollandsworth, L. Bishop, J. Logan, A. Thompson, R. Stolarski, J. Lean, R. Willson, S. Levitus, J. Antonov, N. Rayner, D. Parker, and J. Christy, 2002: Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 107, no. D18, 4347, doi:10.1029/2001JD001143.

Menon, S., J.E. Hansen, L. Nazarenko, and Y. Luo, 2002: Climate effects of black carbon aerosols in China and India. Science, 297, 2250-2253, doi:10.1126/science.1075159.

Robinson, W.A., R. Ruedy, and J.E. Hansen, 2002: General circulation model simulations of recent cooling in the east-central United States. J. Geophys. Res., 107, no. D24, 4748, doi:10.1029/2001JD001577.

2001

Hansen, J.E., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl, 2001: A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 23947-23963, doi:10.1029/2001JD000354.

Hansen, J.E., and M. Sato, 2001: Trends of measured climate forcing agents. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 98, 14778-14783, doi:10.1073/pnas.261553698.

Nazarenko, L., J. Hansen, N. Tausnev, and R. Ruedy, 2001: Response of the Northern Hemisphere sea ice to greenhouse forcing in a global climate model. Ann. Glaciol., 33, 513-520, doi:10.3189/172756401781818897.

Oinas, V., A.A. Lacis, D. Rind, D.T. Shindell, and J.E. Hansen, 2001: Radiative cooling by stratospheric water vapor: Big differences in GCM results. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2791-2794, doi:10.1029/2001GL013137.

Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, C. Doutriaux, J.S. Boyle, J.E. Hansen, P.D. Jones, G.A. Meehl, E. Roeckner, S. Sengupta, and K.E. Taylor, 2001: Accounting for the effects of volcanoes and ENSO in comparisons of modeled and observed temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 28033-28059, doi:10.1029/2000JD000189.

Streets, D.G., K. Jiang, X. Hu, J.E. Sinton, X.-Q. Zhang, D. Xu, M.Z. Jacobson, and J.E. Hansen, 2001: Recent reductions in China's greenhouse gas emissions. Science, 294, 1835-1837, doi:10.1126/science.1065226.

2000

Hansen, J.E., 2000: The Sun's role in long-term climate change. Space Sci. Rev., 94, 349-356, doi:10.1023/A:1026748129347.

Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, M. Sato, L. Nazarenko, N. Tausnev, I. Tegen, and D. Koch, 2000: Climate modeling in the global warming debate. In General Circulation Model Development. D. Randall, Ed. Academic Press, 127-164.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and V. Oinas, 2000: Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 97, 9875-9880, doi:10.1073/pnas.170278997.

Lacis, A.A., B.E. Carlson, and J.E. Hansen, 2000: Retrieval of atmospheric NO₂, O₃, aerosol optical depth, effective radius and variance information from SAGE II multi-spectral extinction measurements. Appl. Math. Comput., 116, 133-151, doi:10.1016/S0096-3003(99)00200-3.

1999

Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, J. Glascoe, and M. Sato, 1999: GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 30997-31022, doi:10.1029/1999JD900835.

1998

Hansen, J.E., 1998: Book review of Sir John Houghton's Global Warming: The Complete Briefing. J. Atmos. Chem., 30, 409-412.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, J. Glascoe, and R. Ruedy, 1998: A common sense climate index: Is climate changing noticeably? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 95, 4113-4120.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, I. Tegen, and E. Matthews, 1998: Perspective: Climate forcings in the industrial era. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 95, 12753-12758.

Hansen, J.E., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and J. Glascoe, 1998: Global climate data and models: A reconciliation. Science, 281, 930-932, doi:10.1126/science.281.5379.930.

Matthews, E., and J. Hansen (Eds.), 1998: Land Surface Modeling: A Mini-Workshop. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

1997

Hansen, J., C. Harris, C. Borenstein, B. Curran, and M. Fox, 1997: Research education. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 25677-25678, doi:10.1029/97JD02172.

Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, G. Russell, M. Sato, J. Lerner, D. Rind, and P. Stone, 1997: Wonderland climate model. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 6823-6830, doi:10.1029/96JD03435.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, A. Lacis, and R. Ruedy, 1997: The missing climate forcing. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. B, 352, 231-240, doi:10.1098/rstb.1997.0018.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 1997: Radiative forcing and climate response. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 6831-6864, doi:10.1029/96JD03436.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, K. Asamoah, K. Beckford, S. Borenstein, E. Brown, B. Cairns, B. Carlson, B. Curran, S. de Castro, L. Druyan, P. Etwarrow, T. Ferede, M. Fox, D. Gaffen, J. Glascoe, H. Gordon, S. Hollandsworth, X. Jiang, C. Johnson, N. Lawrence, J. Lean, J. Lerner, K. Lo, J. Logan, A. Luckett, M.P. McCormick, R. McPeters, R.L. Miller, P. Minnis, I. Ramberran, G. Russell, P. Russell, P. Stone, I. Tegen, S. Thomas, L. Thomason, A. Thompson, J. Wilder, R. Willson, and J. Zawodny, 1997: Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 25679-25720, doi:10.1029/97JD01495.

1996

Hansen, J., 1996: Climatic change: understanding global warming, pp. 173-190, in One World: The Health and Survival of the Human Species in the 21st Century, Ed. R. Lanza, Health Press, Santa Fe, NM, 325 pp.

Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and R. Reynolds, 1996: Global surface air temperature in 1995: Return to pre-Pinatubo level. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 1665-1668, doi:10.1029/96GL01040.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, K. Asamoah, S. Borenstein, E. Brown, B. Cairns, G. Caliri, M. Campbell, B. Curran, S. de Castro, L. Druyan, M. Fox, C. Johnson, J. Lerner, M.P. McCormick, R.L. Miller, P. Minnis, A. Morrison, L. Pandolfo, I. Ramberran, F. Zaucker, M. Robinson, P. Russell, K. Shah, P. Stone, I. Tegen, L. Thomason, J. Wilder, and H. Wilson, 1996: A Pinatubo climate modeling investigation. In The Mount Pinatubo Eruption: Effects on the Atmosphere and Climate, NATO ASI Series Vol. I 42. G. Fiocco, D. Fua, and G. Visconti, Eds. Springer-Verlag, 233-272.

1995

Hansen, J., W. Rossow, B. Carlson, A. Lacis, L. Travis, A. Del Genio, I. Fung, B. Cairns, M. Mishchenko, and M. Sato, 1995: Low-cost long-term monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks. Climatic Change, 31, 247-271, doi:10.1007/BF01095149.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 1995: Long-term changes of the diurnal temperature cycle: Implications about mechanisms of global climate change. Atmos. Res., 37, 175-209, doi:10.1016/0169-8095(94)00077-Q.

Hansen, J., H. Wilson, M. Sato, R. Ruedy, K. Shah, and E. Hansen, 1995: Satellite and surface temperature data at odds? Climatic Change, 30, 103-117, doi:10.1007/BF01093228.

1993

Hansen, J., 1993a: Climate forcings and feedbacks. In Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks, NASA CP-3234. J. Hansen, W. Rossow, and I. Fung, Eds. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 6-12.

Hansen, J., 1993b: Climsat rationale. In Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks, NASA CP-3234. J. Hansen, W. Rossow, and I. Fung, Eds. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 26-35.

Hansen, J., A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and H. Wilson, 1993: How sensitive is the world's climate? Natl. Geog. Soc. Res. Exploration, 9, 142-158.

Hansen, J., W. Rossow, and I. Fung (Eds.), 1993: Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks. NASA CP-3234. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Hansen, J., and H. Wilson, 1993: Commentary on the significance of global temperature records. Climatic Change, 25, 185-191, doi:10.1007/BF01661206.

Pollack, J.B., D. Rind, A. Lacis, J.E. Hansen, M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 1993: GCM simulations of volcanic aerosol forcing. Part I: Climate changes induced by steady-state perturbations. J. Climate, 6, 1719-1742, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1719:GSOVAF>2.0.CO;2.

Sato, M., J.E. Hansen, M.P. McCormick, and J.B. Pollack, 1993: Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850-1990. J. Geophys. Res., 98, 22987-22994, doi:10.1029/93JD02553.

1992

Charlson, R.J., S.E. Schwartz, J.M. Hales, R.D. Cess, J.A. Coakley, Jr., J.E. Hansen, and D.J. Hoffman, 1992: Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols. Science, 255, 423-430, doi:10.1126/science.255.5043.423.

Hansen, J., A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, and M. Sato, 1992: Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption. Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 215-218, doi:10.1029/91GL02788.

Lacis, A., J. Hansen, and M. Sato, 1992: Climate forcing by stratospheric aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 1607-1610, doi:10.1029/92GL01620.

1991

Hansen, J.E., and A. Lacis, 1991: Sun and water in the greenhouse: Reply to comments. Nature, 349, 467, doi:10.1038/349467c0.

Hansen, J., D. Rind, A. Del Genio, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, M. Prather, R. Ruedy, and T. Karl, 1991: Regional greenhouse climate effects. In Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations. M.E. Schlesinger, Ed. Elsevier, 211-229.

1990

Hansen, J.E., and A.A. Lacis, 1990: Sun and dust versus greenhouse gases: An assessment of their relative roles in global climate change. Nature, 346, 713-719, doi:10.1038/346713a0.

Hansen, J.E., A.A. Lacis, and R.A. Ruedy, 1990: Comparison of solar and other influences on long-term climate. In Climate Impact of Solar Variability, NASA CP-3086. K.H. Schatten, and A. Arking, Eds. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 135-145.

Hansen, J., W. Rossow, and I. Fung, 1990: The missing data on global climate change. Issues Sci. Technol., 7, 62-69.

Lorius, C., J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, J. Hansen, and H. Le Treut, 1990: The ice-core record: Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming. Nature, 347, 139-145, doi:10.1038/347139a0.

Rind, D., R. Goldberg, J. Hansen, C. Rosenzweig, and R. Ruedy, 1990: Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought. J. Geophys. Res., 95, 9983-10004, doi:10.1029/JD095iD07p09983.

1989

Hansen, J., A. Lacis, and M. Prather, 1989: Greenhouse effect of chlorofluorocarbons and other trace gases. J. Geophys. Res., 94, 16417-16421, doi:10.1029/JD094iD13p16417.

1988

Hansen, J., I. Fung, A. Lacis, D. Rind, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, G. Russell, and P. Stone, 1988: Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 9341-9364, doi:10.1029/JD093iD08p09341.

Hansen, J., and S. Lebedeff, 1988: Global surface air temperatures: Update through 1987. Geophys. Res. Lett., 15, 323-326, doi:10.1029/GL015i004p00323.

1987

Hansen, J.E., and S. Lebedeff, 1987: Global trends of measured surface air temperature. J. Geophys. Res., 92, 13345-13372, doi:10.1029/JD092iD11p13345.

Ramanathan, V., L. Callis, R. Cess, J. Hansen, I. Isaksen, W. Kuhn, A. Lacis, F. Luther, J. Mahlman, R. Reck, and M. Schlesinger, 1987: Climate-chemical interactions and effects of changing atmospheric trace gases. Rev. Geophys., 25, 1441-1482, doi:10.1029/RG025i007p01441.

1986

Hunten, D.M., L. Colin, and J.E. Hansen, 1986: Atmospheric science on the Galileo mission. Space Sci. Rev., 44, 191-240, doi:10.1007/BF00200817.

1985

Bennett, T., W. Broecker, and J. Hansen (Eds.), 1985: North Atlantic Deep Water Formation. NASA CP-2367. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Hansen, J.E., 1985: Geophysics: Global sea level trends. Nature, 313, 349-350, doi:10.1038/313349a0.

Hansen, J., G. Russell, A. Lacis, I. Fung, D. Rind, and P. Stone, 1985: Climate response times: Dependence on climate sensitivity and ocean mixing. Science, 229, 857-859, doi:10.1126/science.229.4716.857.

1984

Hansen, J., A. Lacis, and D. Rind, 1984: Climate trends due to increasing greenhouse gases. In Proceedings of the Third Symposium on Coastal and Ocean Management, ASCE/San Diego, California, June 1-4, 1983, 2796-2810.

Hansen, J., A. Lacis, D. Rind, G. Russell, P. Stone, I. Fung, R. Ruedy, and J. Lerner, 1984: Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms. In Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity. J.E. Hansen, and T. Takahashi, Eds., AGU Geophysical Monograph 29, Maurice Ewing Vol. 5. American Geophysical Union, 130-163.

Hansen, J.E., and T. Takahashi (Eds.), 1984: Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity. AGU Geophysical Monograph 29, Maurice Ewing Vol. 5. American Geophysical Union.

Rind, D., R. Suozzo, A. Lacis, G. Russell, and J. Hansen, 1984: 21 Layer Troposphere-Stratosphere Climate Model. NASA TM-86183. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

1983

Hansen, J., V. Gornitz, S. Lebedeff, and E. Moore, 1983: Global mean sea level: Indicator of climate change? Science, 219, 997, doi:10.1126/science.219.4587.997.

Hansen, J., D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, 1983: Climatic effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science, 220, 874-875, doi:10.1126/science.220.4599.874-a.

Hansen, J., G. Russell, D. Rind, P. Stone, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, and L. Travis, 1983: Efficient three-dimensional global models for climate studies: Models I and II. Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 609-662, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<0609:ETDGMF>2.0.CO;2.

Pinto, J.P., D. Rind, G.L. Russell, J.A. Lerner, J.E. Hansen, Y.L. Yung, and S. Hameed, 1983: A general circulation model study of atmospheric carbon monoxide. J. Geophys. Res., 88, 3691-3702, doi:10.1029/JC088iC06p03691.

1982

Gornitz, V., S. Lebedeff, and J. Hansen, 1982: Global sea level trend in the past century. Science, 215, 1611-1614, doi:10.1126/science.215.4540.1611.

1981

Hansen, J., D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, 1981: Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science, 213, 957-966, doi:10.1126/science.213.4511.957.

Lacis, A., J. Hansen, P. Lee, T. Mitchell, and S. Lebedeff, 1981: Greenhouse effect of trace gases, 1970-1980. Geophys. Res. Lett., 8, 1035-1038, doi:10.1029/GL008i010p01035.

1980

Hansen, J., 1980: Review of Theory of Planetary Atmospheres by J.W. Chamberlain. Icarus, 41, 175-176.

Hansen, J.E., A.A. Lacis, P. Lee, and W.-C. Wang, 1980: Climatic effects of atmospheric aerosols. Ann. New York Acad. Sci., 338, 575-587, doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.1980.tb17151.x.

Kawabata, K., D.L. Coffeen, J.E. Hansen, W.A. Lane, M.O. Sato, and L.D. Travis, 1980: Cloud and haze properties from Pioneer Venus polarimetry. J. Geophys. Res., 85, 8129-8140, doi:10.1029/JA085iA13p08129.

1979

Sato, M., and J.E. Hansen, 1979: Jupiter's atmospheric composition and cloud structure deduced from absorption bands in reflected sunlight. J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1133-1167, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<1133:JACACS>2.0.CO;2.

Travis, L.D., D.L. Coffeen, A.D. Del Genio, J.E. Hansen, K. Kawabata, A.A. Lacis, W.A. Lane, S.S. Limaye, W.B. Rossow, and P.H. Stone, 1979: Cloud images from the Pioneer Venus orbiter. Science, 205, 74-76, doi:10.1126/science.205.4401.74.

Travis, L.D., D.L. Coffeen, J.E. Hansen, K. Kawabata, A.A. Lacis, W.A. Lane, S.S. Limaye, and P.H. Stone, 1979: Orbiter cloud photopolarimeter investigation. Science, 203, 781-785, doi:10.1126/science.203.4382.781.

1978

Hansen, J.E., W.-C. Wang, and A.A. Lacis, 1978: Mount Agung eruption provides test of a global climatic perturbation. Science, 199, 1065-1068, doi:10.1126/science.199.4333.1065.

1977

Knollenberg, R.G., J. Hansen, B. Ragent, J. Martonchik, and M. Tomasko, 1977: The clouds of Venus. Space Sci. Rev., 20, 329-354, doi:10.1007/BF02186469.

Lillie, C.F., C.W. Hord, K. Pang, D.L. Coffeen, and J.E. Hansen, 1977: The Voyager mission Photopolarimeter Experiment. Space Sci. Rev., 21, 159-181, doi:10.1007/BF00200849.

Sato, M., K. Kawabata, and J.E. Hansen, 1977: A fast invariant imbedding method for multiple scattering calculations and an application to equivalent widths of CO₂ lines on Venus. Astrophys. J., 216, 947-962, doi:10.1086/155539.

Schubert, G., C.C. Counselman, III, J. Hansen, S.S. Limaye, G. Pettengill, A. Seiff, I.I. Shapiro, V.E. Suomi, F. Taylor, L. Travis, R. Woo, and R.E. Young, 1977: Dynamics, winds, circulation and turbulence in the atmosphere of Venus. Space Sci. Rev., 20, 357-387, doi:10.1007/BF02186459.

1976

Kawata, Y., and J.E. Hansen, 1976: Circular polarization of sunlight reflected by Jupiter. In Jupiter: Studies of the Interior, Atmosphere, Magneteosphere, and Satellites. T. Gehrels, Ed. University of Arizona Press, 516-530.

Somerville, R.C.J., W.J. Quirk, J.E. Hansen, A.A. Lacis, and P.H. Stone, 1976: A search for short-term meteorological effects of solar variability in an atmospheric circulation model. J. Geophys. Res., 81, 1572-1576, doi:10.1029/JC081i009p01572.

Wang, W.-C., Y.L. Yung, A.A. Lacis, T. Mo, and J.E. Hansen, 1976: Greenhouse effects due to man-made perturbation of trace gases. Science, 194, 685-690, doi:10.1126/science.194.4266.685.

1975

Hansen, J.E. (Ed.), 1975: The Atmosphere of Venus. NASA SP-382. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Hansen, J.E., and D. Coffeen, 1975: Analysis of cloud polarization measurements. Conference on Cloud Physics, Tucson, Ariz., October 21-24, 1974, Proceedings. (A75-44379 22-47) Boston, American Meteorological Society, 1975, p. 350-356.

Kawabata, K., and J.E. Hansen, 1975: Interpretation of the variation of polarization over the disk of Venus. J. Atmos. Sci., 32, 1133-1139, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<1133:IOTVOP>2.0.CO;2.

1974

Coffeen, D., and J.E. Hansen, 1974: Polarization studies of planetary atmospheresa. In Planets, Stars and Nebulae Studied with Photopolarimetry (T. Gehrels, Ed. pp. 1133) University of Arizona Press, Tucson, AZ, p. 518-581. doi: 10.2307/j.ctt2050vsn

Hansen, J.E., and J.W. Hovenier, 1974a: Interpretation of the polarization of Venus. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1137-1160, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<1137:IOTPOV>2.0.CO;2.

Hansen, J.E., and J.W. Hovenier, 1974b: Nature Venus Clouds as Derived from Their Polarzation in Exploration of the planetary system; Proceedings of the Symposium, Torun, Poland, September 5-8, 1973. (A75-21276 08-91) Dordrecht, D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1974, p. 197-200. Research supported by the Nederlandse Organisatie voor Zuiver-Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek; Bibliographic Code: 1974IAUS...65..197H

Hansen, J.E., and L.D. Travis, 1974: Light scattering in planetary atmospheres. Space Sci. Rev., 16, 527-610, doi:10.1007/BF00168069.

Lacis, A.A., and J.E. Hansen, 1974a: A parameterization for the absorption of solar radiation in the Earth's atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 118-133, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<0118:APFTAO>2.0.CO;2.

Lacis, A.A., and J.E. Hansen, 1974b: Atmosphere of Venus: Implications of Venera 8 sunlight measurements. Science, 184, 979-983, doi:10.1126/science.184.4140.979.

Somerville, R.C.J., P.H. Stone, M. Halem, J.E. Hansen, J.S. Hogan, L.M. Druyan, G. Russell, A.A. Lacis, W.J. Quirk, and J. Tenenbaum, 1974: The GISS model of the global atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 84-117, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<0084:TGMOTG>2.0.CO;2.

1973

Coffeen, D., and J.E. Hansen, 1973: Airborne infrared polarimetry. In Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment, Ann Arbor, Mich., October 2-6, 1972, vol. 1. Environmental Research Institute of Michigan, 515-522.

Whitehill, L.P., and J.E. Hansen, 1973: On the interpretation of the "inverse phase effect" for CO₂ equivalent widths on Venus. Icarus, 20, 146-152, doi:10.1016/0019-1035(73)90047-X.

1972

Hansen, J.E., and D. Coffeen, 1972: Polarization of near-infrared sunlight reflected by terrestrial clouds. Conference on Atmospheric Radiation, Fort Collins, Colo., August 7-9, 1972, Preprints. (A73-10351 01-13) Boston, American Meteorological Society, 1972, p. 55-60.

1971

Hansen, J.E., 1971a: Circular polarization of sunlight reflected by clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1515-1516, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<1515:CPOSRB>2.0.CO;2.

Hansen, J.E., 1971b: Multiple scattering of polarized light in planetary atmospheres. Part I. The doubling method. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 120-125, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0120:MSOPLI>2.0.CO;2.

Hansen, J.E., 1971c: Multiple scattering of polarized light in planetary atmospheres. Part II. Sunlight reflected by terrestrial water clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1400-1426, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<1400:MSOPLI>2.0.CO;2.

Hansen, J.E., and A. Arking, 1971: Clouds of Venus: Evidence for their nature. Science, 171, 669-672, doi:10.1126/science.171.3972.669.

Hansen, J.E., and J.W. Hovenier, 1971: The doubling method applied to multiple scattering of polarized light. J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer, 11, 809-812, doi:10.1016/0022-4073(71)90057-4.

Liou, K.-N., and J.E Hansen, 1971: Intensity and polarization for single scattering by polydisperse spheres: A comparison of ray optics and Mie theory. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 995-1004, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0995:IAPFSS>2.0.CO;2.

1970

Hansen, J.E., and J.B. Pollack, 1970: Near-infrared light scattering by terrestrial clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 265-281, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1970)027<0265:NILSBT>2.0.CO;2.

1969

Hansen, J.E., 1969a: Absorption-line formation in a scattering planetary atmosphere: A test of Van de Hulst's similarity relations. Astrophys. J., 158, 337-349, doi:10.1086/150196.

Hansen, J.E., 1969b: Exact and approximate solutions for multiple scattering by cloud and hazy planetary atmospheres. J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 478-487, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1969)026<0478:EAASFM>2.0.CO;2.

Hansen, J.E., 1969c: Radiative transfer by doubling very thin layers. Astrophys. J., 155, 565-573, doi:10.1086/149892.

Hansen, J.E., and H. Cheyney, 1969: Theoretical spectral scattering of ice clouds in the near infrared. J. Geophys. Res., 74, 3337-3346, doi:10.1029/JC074i013p03337.

1968

Hansen, J.E., and H. Cheyney, 1968a: Comments on the paper by D.G. Rea and B.T. O'Leary, "On the composition of the Venus clouds". J. Geophys. Res., 73, 6136-6137, doi:10.1029/JB073i018p06136.

Hansen, J.E., and H. Cheyney, 1968b: Near infrared reflectivity of Venus and ice clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 25, 629-633, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1968)025<0629:NIROVA>2.0.CO;2.

1967

Hansen, J.E., and S. Matsushima, 1967: The atmosphere and surface temperature of Venus: A dust insulation model. Astrophys. J., 150, 1139-1157, doi:10.1086/149410.

Kevin Anderson is another distinguished and independent climate scientists whose papers we rely upon. He is Professor of Energy and Climate Change, holding a joint chair in the School of Engineering at the University of Manchester (UK) and in Centre for Sustainability and the Environment (CEMUS) at Uppsala University (Sweden). He recently finished a two year fellowship as the Zennstrøm Professor of Climate Change Leadership in Uppsala, and has previously been both Deputy Director and Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. While we mostly agree with his climate research, there are some areas in which we disagree.

Here are a few of his more recent climate studies:

2019

1. Setting Climate Change Commitments for West Midlands Combined Authority Area: Quantifying the Implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on Climate Change for West Midlands Combined Authority. ...  

Kuriakose, J., Jones, C., Anderson, K., Broderick, J. & McLachlan, C., 14 Jul 2019, Manchester: University of Manchester. 19 p. Research output: Book/Report › Commissioned report

2. Trade and trade-offs: Shipping in changing climates

Walsh, C., Lazarou, N-J., Traut, M., Price, J., Raucci, C., Sharmina, M., Agnolucci, P., Mander, S., Gilbert, P., Anderson, K., Larkin, A. & Smith, T., 2019, In: Marine Policy. Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2019.103537

 

Michael Mann is an American climatologist and geophysicist. He is the director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. Mann has contributed to the scientific understanding of historic climate change based on the temperature record of the past thousand years. He has pioneered techniques to find patterns in past climate change and to isolate climate signals from noisy data. While we mostly agree with his climate research, there are some areas in which we disagree. He is another respected and independent climate scientist whose research we rely upon. Here are a few of his papers:

Abraham, J.P., Cheng, L., Mann, M.E., Trenberth, K.E., von Schuckmann, K., The Ocean Response to Climate Change Guides Both Adaptation and Mitigation Efforts, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 15, 100221, doi: 10.1016/j.aosl.2022.100221, 2022. [altmetric]

Steinman, B.A., Stansell, N.D., Mann, M.E., Cooke, C.A., Abbott, M.B., Vuille, M., Bird, B.W., Lachniet, M.S., Fernandez, A., Interhemispheric antiphasing of neotropical precipitation during the past millennium, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 119(17), e2120015119, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2120015119, 2022. [supplement] [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., The legacy of Rajendra Pachauri: a personal reflection, in “Dr R K Pachauri: The Crusader Against Climate Change”, Yateendra Joshi, P K Jayanthan, Vibha Dhawan, Amit Kumar, Rakesh Kacker (ed.s),  TERI Alumni Association, 2 pp, 2022.

Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Brouillette, D.J., Fernandez, A., Miller, S.K., On The Estimation of Internal Climate Variability During the Preindustrial Past Millennium, Geophys Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL096596, doi: 10.1029/2021GL096596, 2022. [supplement] [altmetric]

Cheng, L., Abraham, J.P., Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Mann, M.E., Zhu, J., Wang, F., Locarnini, R., Li, Y., Zhang, B., Tan, Z., Yu, F., Wan, L., Chen, X., Song, X., Liu, Y., Reseghetti, F., Simoncelli, S., Gouretski, V., Chen, G., Mishonov, A., Reagan, J., Another record: Ocean warming continues through 2021 Despite La Nina Conditions, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, doi:10.1007/s00376-022-1461-3, 2022. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Beyond the Hockey Stick: Climate Lessons from The Common Era, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 118 (39) e2112797118; doi: 10.1073/pnas.2112797118, 2021. (see also the accompanying author profile) [altmetric]

Mukherjee, S., G., Mishra, A.K., Mann, M.E., Raymond, C., Anthropogenic Warming and Population Growth May Double US Heat Stress by the Late 21^st Century, Earth’s Future, 9, e2020EF001886. doi:10.1029/2020EF001886, 2021. [altmetric]

Meehl, G.A., Richter, J.H., Teng, H., Capotondi, A, Cobb, K., Doblas-Reyes, F., Donat, M.G., England, M.H., Fyfe, J.C., Han, W., Kim, H., Kirtman, B.P., Kushnir, Y., Lovenduski, N.S., Mann, M.E., Merryfield, W.J., Nieves, V., Pegion, K., Rosenbloom, N., Sanchez, S.C.,. Scaife, A.A., Smith, D., Subramanian, A.C., Sun, L., Thompson, D., Ummenhofer, C.C., Xie, S.-P., Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales, Nat Rev Earth Environ, doi: 10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x, 2021. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Hall, L.J., Dulvy, N., Scientific Impact in a Changing World, Cell  (“Voices”), 184, 407-408, 2021. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Brouillette, D.J.., Miller, S.K., Multidecadal Climate Oscillations During the Past Millennium Driven by Volcanic Forcing, Science, 371, 1014–1019, 2021. [supplement] [altmetric]

Cheng, L., Abraham, J.P., Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Locarnini, R., Zhang, B., Yu, F., Wan, L., Chen, X., Song, X., Liu, Y, Mann, M.E., Zhu, J., Upper Ocean Temperatures Hit Record High in 2020, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 38, 523-530, 2021. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., From Climate Scientist to Climate Communicator: A Process of Evolution,  in "Standing up for a Sustainable World: Voices of Change",  Claude Henry, Johan Rockström, and Nicholas Stern (ed.s), Edward Elgar Publishing, 5 pp, 2020.

Cheng, L., Trenberth, K.E., Gruber, J., Abraham, J.P., Fasullo, J.T., Li., G., Mann, M.E., Zhao, X., Zhu, J., Improved estimates of changes in upper ocean salinity and the hydrological cycle, J. Climate, 33, 10357–10381, 2020. [altmetric]

Li, G., Cheng, L., Abraham, J.P., Zhu, J., Trenberth, K.E., Mann, M.E., Abraham, J.P., Increasing ocean stratification over the past half-century, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-00918-2, 2020. [altmetric]

Konapala, L., Mishra, A.K., Wada. Y., Mann, M.E., Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation, Nature Communications, 11, 3044, doi:10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w, 2020. [altmetric]

Cheng, L., Abraham, J.P., Zhu, J., Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Locarnini, R., Zhang, B., Yu, F., Wan, L., Chen, X., Song, X., Liu, Y., Mann, M.E., Record-setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019, Advances in Atmospheric Science 37, 137-142, 2020. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., Absence of Internal Multidecadal and Interdecadal Oscillations in Climate Model Simulations, Nature Communications 11, 49, doi:10.1038/s41467-019-13823-w, 2020. [supplement] [altmetric]

Post, E., Alley, R.B., Christensen, T.R., Macias-Fauria, M., Forbes, B.C., Gooseff, M.N., Iler, A., Kerby, J.T., Laidre, K.L., Mann, M.E., Olofsson, J., Stroeve, J.C., Ulmer, F., Virginia, R.A., Wang, M., The Polar Regions in a 2^oC warmer world, Science Advances, 5, eaaw9883 doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw9883, 2019. [altmetric]

Fick, D.M., Kolanowski, A.M., McDermott Levy, R.., Mann, M.E., Addressing the Health Risks of Climate Change in Older Adults, Journal of Gerontological Nursing, 45, 21-29, 2019. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Radical reform and the Green New Deal, Nature, 573, 340-341, 2019. [altmetric]

Verbitsky, M..Y., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Volobuev, D.M., Detecting causality signal in instrumental measurements and climate model simulations: global warming case study, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4053–4060, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4053-2019, 2019.

Hagedorn, G., Kalmus, P., Mann, M., Vicca, S., Van den Berge, J., van Ypersele, J.-P., Bourg, D., Rotmans, J., Karronen, R., Rahmstorf, S., Kromp-Kolb, H., Kirchengast, G., Knutti, R., Seneviratne, S.I., Thalmann, P., Cretney, R., Green, A., Anderson, K., Hedberg, M., Nilsson, D., Kuttner, A., Hayhoe, K., Concerns of Young Protestors are Justified, Science, 364, 139-140, 2019. [altmetric]

Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Skirving, W., Lough, J., Liu, C., Mann, M.E., Donner, S., Eakin, M., Cantin, N., Miller, S., Heron, S.F., Dove, S. Commentary: Reconstructing Four Centuries of Temperature-Induced Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Frontiers in Marine Science doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00086, 2019. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., The Weather Amplifier, Scientific American, 320, 43-49, 2019.

Lewandowsky, S., Cowtan, K., Risbey, J.S., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Oreskes, N., Rahmstorf, S., The “pause” in global warming in historical context: Comparing models to observations, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 123007, 2018. [altmetric]

Walker, A.M., Titley, D.W., Mann, M.E., Najjar, R.G., Miller, S.K., A Fiscally Based Scale for Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge, Weather and Forecasting, 33, 1709-1733, 2018. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf, S., Kornhuber, K., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., Coumou, D., Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events: The role of quasi-resonant amplification, Science Advances, 4:eaat3272, 2018. [supplement] [altmetric]

Li, M., Kump, L., Hinnov, L.A., Mann, M.E., Tracking variable sedimentation rates and astronomical forcing in Phanerozoic paleoclimate proxy series with evolutionary correlation coefficients and hypothesis testing, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 501, 165-179, 2018.  [altmetric]

Frankcombe, L.M., England, M.H., Kajtar, J.B., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., On the Choice of Ensemble Mean for Estimating the Forced Signal in the Presence of Internal Variability, J. Climate, 31, 5681-5693, 2018. [altmetric]

Restrepo, J.M., Mann, M.E., Uncertainty in Climate Science: Not Cause for Inaction, Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics News, 51, p. 1, 5, 2018.

Sinha, P., Mann, M.E., Fuentes, J.D., Mejia, A., Ning, L., Weiyi, S., He, T., Obeysekera, J., Downscaled rainfall projections in south Florida using self organizing maps,  variability, Science of the Total Environment, 635, 1110-1123, 2018. [altmetric]

Harvey, J.A., van den Berg, D., Ellers, J., Kampen, R., Crowther, T.W., Roessingh, P., Verheggen, B., Nuijten, R.J.M., Post, E., Lewandowsky, S., Stirling, I., Balgopal, M., Amstrup, S.C., Mann, M.E., Internet blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate Change Denial by Proxy, Bioscience, 68, 281-287, 2018. [altmetric]

Schurer, A., Cowtan, K., Hawkins, E., Mann, M.E., Scott, V., Tett, S.F.B., Interpretations of the Paris Climate Target, Nature Geoscience, 1752-0908, doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0086-8, 2018. [altmetric]

Post, E., Steinman, B.A., Mann, M.E., Rates of phenological advance and warming have increased with latitude in the Northern Hemisphere over the past century, Scientific Reports 8, 3297, 2018. [altmetric]

Garner, A., Kopp, R.E., Horton, B.P., Mann, M.E., Alley, R.B., Emanuel, K.A., Lin, N., Donnelly, J.P., Kemp, A.C., DeConto, R.M., Pollard, D., New York City’s evolving flood risk from hurricanes and sea level rise, Variations/Exchanges, U.S. CLIVAR, 16, 30-35, Winter 2018.

Mann, M.E., Time for a Different Story, New Scientist, p. 22-23, Feb. 24, 2018.

Cheung, A.H., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Frankcombe, L.M., England, M.H., Miller, S.K., Reply to Comment on “Comparison of low-frequency internal climate variability in CMIP5 models and observations” by Kratsov, J. Climate, 30, 9773-9782, 2017.  [altmetric]

Garner, A.J., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Kopp, R.E., Lin, N., Alley, R.B., Horton, B.P., DeConto, R.M. Donnelly, J.P., Pollard, D., The Impact of Climate Change on New York City’s Coastal Flood Hazard: Increasing Flood Heights from the Pre-Industrial to 2300 CE, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 114, 11861-11866, 2017. [altmetric]

Lewandowsky, S., Freeman, M.C., Mann, M.E., Harnessing the uncertainty monster: Putting quantitative constraints on the intergenerational social discount rate, Global and Planetary Change, 156, 155–166, 2017. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Lloyd, E.A., Oreskes, N., Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Weather Events: The Case For an Alternative (Bayesian) Approach, Climatic Change, 144, 131-142, 2017. [supplement] [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., Rahmstorf, S., Steinman, B.A., Tingley M., Record Temperature Streak Bears Anthropogenic Fingerprint, Geophys Res. Lett., 44, doi:10.1002/2017GL074056, 2017. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., review of The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, in Summer Books, Nature, 546, 28-29, 2017.

Mann, M.E., Al Gore gets inconvenient again, Nature, 546, 400-401, 2017. [altmetric]

Schurer, A.P., Mann, M.E., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G.C., Tett, S.F.B., Importance of the pre-Industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals, Nature Climate Change, 7, 563-567, 2017. [altmetric]

Abraham, J.P., Cheng, L., Mann, M.E.,  Future Climate Projections Allow Engineering Planning, Forensic Engineering, 170, 54-57, 2017. [altmetric]

Santer, B.D., Fyfe, J.C., Pallotta, G., Flato, G.M., Meehl, G.A., England, M.H., Hawkins, E., Mann, M.E., Painter, J.F., Bonfils, C., Cvijanovic, I., Meers, C., Wentz, F.J., Po-Chedley, S., Qiang, F., Zou, C.-Z.,  Investigating the Causes of Differences in Model and Satellite Tropospheric Warming Rates, Nature Geoscience, 10, 478-485, 2017. [altmetric]

Cheung, A.H., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Frankcombe, L.M., England, M.H., Miller, S.K., Comparison of Low Frequency Internal Climate Variability in CMIP5 Models and Observations, J. Climate, 30, 4763-4776, 2017. [altmetric]

Grajal, A, Luebke, J.F., Clayton, S., Saunders, C.D., Kelly, L-A, Matiasek, J., Stanoss, R., Goldman, S.D., Mann, M.E., Karazsia, B.T.,  A complex relationship between personal affective connections to animals and self-reported pro-environmental behaviors by zoo visitors, Conservation Biology, 31, 322-330, 2017. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf, S., Kornhuber, K., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., Coumou, D., Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events, Scientific Reports, 7, 19831, 2017. [supplement] [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Joy-Hassol, S., Climate Trumps Everything, Scientific American, 316, 8, 2017.

Bateman, T.S., Mann, M.E., The supply of climate leaders must grow, Nature Climate Change, 6, 1052-1054, 2016. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Oreskes, N., Emanuel, K.A., AGU Should Sever Its Ties with ExxonMobil, Eos, 97, 8-9, doi:10.1029/2016EO061455, 2016.

Lewandowsky, S., Mann, M.E., Brown, N.J.L., Friedman, H., Science and the Public: Debate, Denial, and Skepticism, Journal of Social and Political Psychology, 4, 1-99, doi:10.5964/jspp.v4i2.604, 2016. [altmetric]

Zhang, F., Li, W. Mann, M.E., Limits to Regional-scale Climate Predictability over North America, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33, 905-918, 2016. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Steinman, B., Miller, S.K., Frankcombe, L., England, M., Cheung, A.H., Predictability of the Recent Slowdown and Subsequent Recovery of Large-Scale Surface Warming using Statistical Methods, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3459-3467, 2016. [supplement] [altmetric]

Fyfe, J.C, Meehl, G.A., England, M.H., Mann, M.E., Santer, B.D., Flato, G.M., Hawkins, E., Gillet, N.P., Xie, S.-P., Kosaka, Y., Swart, N.C., Making sense of the early-2000s global warming slowdown, Nature Climate Change, 6, 224-228, 2016. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Must Try Harder, New Scientist, p. 29-30, Feb 20, 2016.

Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf, S., Steinman, B.A., Tingley, M., Miller, S.K., The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth, Scientific Reports, 6, 19831, 2016. [supplement] [altmetric]

Steinman, B.A. Frankcombe, L.M., Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., England, M.H., Response to Comment on “Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures", Science, 350, 1326, 2015. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Two Degrees of Freedom, Scientific American, 313, 12, 2015. [altmetric]

Lindeman, K.C., Dame, L.E., Avenarius, C.B., Horton, B.P., Donnelly, J.P., Corbett, D.R., Kemp, A.C., Lane, P., Mann, M.E., and Peltier, W.R., Science needs for sea-level adaptation planning: comparisons among three U.S. Atlantic coast regions, Coastal Management, 43, 555-574, 2015. [altmetric]

Reed, A.J., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Lin, N., Horton, B., Kemp, A.C., Donnelly, J.P., Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 112, 12610-12615, 2015. [altmetric]

Frankcombe, L.M., England, M.H., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Separating internal variability from the externally forced climate response, J. Climate, 28, 8184-8202, 2015. [altmetric]

Cowtan, K., Hausfather, Z., Hawkins, E., Jacobs, P., Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., Steinman, B.A., Stolpe, M.B., Way, R.G., Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 6526–6534, doi:10.1002/2015GL064888, 2015. [altmetric]

Reed, A.J., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Titley, D.W., An analysis of long-term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res. 120, 7506-7519, doi:10.1002/2015JD023357, 2015. [altmetric]

Oreskes, N., Carlat, D., Mann, M.E., Thacker, P.D., vom Saal, F.S., Why Disclosure Matters, Environmental Science & Technology, 49, 7527-7528, 2015. [altmetric]

Halpern, M., Mann, M., Transparency Versus Harassment (editorial), Science, 479, 348, 2015. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Gleick, P.H., Climate Change and California Drought in the 21st Century, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 112, 3858-3859, 2015. [altmetric]

Rahmstorf, S., Box, J., Feulner, G., Mann, M.E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., Schaffernicht, E. Exceptional 20th-Century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning, Nature Climate Change, 5, 475–480, 2015. [altmetric]

Ross, A.C., Najjar, R.G., Li, M., Mann, M.E., Ford, S.E., Katz, B., Influences on decadal-scale variations of salinity in a coastal plain estuary, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 157, 79-92, 2015. [altmetric]

Steinman, B.A., Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures, Science, 347, 998-991, 2015. [supplement] [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., The Serengeti strategy: How special interests try to intimidate scientists, and how best to fight back, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 71, 33-45, 2015. [altmetric]

Paaijmans, K.P., Blanford, J.I., Crane, R.G., Mann, M.E., Ning, L., Schreiber, K.V., Thomas M.B.,Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission, Climatic Change, 125, 479-488, 2014. [altmetric]

Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Missing tree rings and the AD 774-775 radiocarbon event, Nature Climate Change, 4, 648-649, 2014. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., On Forced Temperature Changes, Internal Variability and the AMO, Geophys. Res. Lett. (“Frontier” article), 41, 3211-3219, doi:10.1002/2014GL059233, 2014. [supplement] [altmetric]

Singh, R., Wagener, T., Crane, R., Mann, M.E., Ning, L., A vulnerability driven approach to identify adverse climate and land use change combinations for critical hydrologic indicator thresholds – Application to a watershed in Pennsylvania, USA, Wat. Res. Res., 50, 3409-3427, doi:10.1002/2013WR014988, 2014. [altmetric]

Steinman, B.A., Abbott, M.B., Mann, M.E., Ortiz, J.D., Feng, S., Pompeani, D.P., Stansell, N.D., Anderson, L., Finney, B.P., Bird, B.W., Ocean-atmosphere forcing of centennial hydroclimate variability in the Pacific Northwest, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2553-2560, doi:10.1002/2014GL059499, 2014. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., False Hope: The rate of global temperature rise may have hit a plateau, but a climate crisis still looms in the near future, Scientific American, 310, 78-81, 2014.

Schmidt, G.A., Annan, J.D., Bartlein, P.J., Cook, B.I., Guilyardi, E., Hargreaves, J.C., Harrison, S.P., Kageyama, M., LeGrande, A.N., Konecky, B., Lovejoy, S., Mann, M.E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Thompson, D., Timmermann, A., Tremblay, L.-B., Yiou, P., Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5, Climate of the Past, 10, 221-250, 2014. [altmetric]

Sriver, R.L., Timmermann, A., Mann, M.E., Keller, K., Goosse, H., Improved representation of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics in an intermediate complexity climate model, J. Climate, 27, 168-187, 2014. 

Kozar, M.E., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Evans, J.L., Long-term Variations of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from a Coupled Model Simulation of the Last Millennium, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 13383-13392, doi:10.1002/2013JD020380, 2013. [altmetric]

Lewandowsky, S., Mann, M.E., Bauld, L., Hastings, G., Loftus, E.F., The Subterranean War on Science, The Observer (Association for Psychological Science), 26, 9, 2013. [External Link]

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Schurer, A., Tett, S.F.B., Fuentes, J.D., Discrepancies between the modeled and proxy-reconstructed response to volcanic forcing over the past millennium: Implications and possible mechanisms, J. Geophys. Res. 118, 7617-7627, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50609, 2013. [supplement] [altmetric]

Schurer, A., Hegerl, G., Mann, M.E., Tett, S.F.B., Separating forced from chaotic climate variability over the past millennium, J. Climate, 26, 6954-6973, 2013. [altmetric]

Rutherford, S.D., Mann, M.E., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Comment on: "Erroneous Model Field Representations in Multiple Pseudoproxy Studies: Corrections and Implications" by Jason E. Smerdon, Alexey Kaplan and Daniel E. Amrhein, J. Climate, 26, 3482-3484, 2013. [altmetric]

Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K.M., Mann, M.E., Wittenberg, A.T., Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST variability over the Past Millennium. Part 2: Reconstructions and Uncertainties, J. Climate, 26, 2329-2352, 2013. [altmetric]

Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K.M., Mann, M.E., Wittenberg, A.T., Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST variability over the Past Millennium. Part 1: Methodology and Validation, J. Climate, 26, 2302-2328, 2013. [altmetric]

Feng, S., Hu, Q., Wu, Q., Mann, M.E., A Gridded Reconstruction of Warm Season Precipitation for Asia Spanning the Past Half Millennium, J. Climate, 26, 2192-2204, 2013. [altmetric]

Blanford J.I., Blanford S., Crane R.G., Mann, M.E., Paaijmans K.P., Schreiber, K.V., Thomas, M.B., Implications of temperature variation for malaria parasite development across Africa, Scientific Reports, 3, 1300, doi:10.1038/srep01300, 2013. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Fuentes, J.D., Rutherford, S. Reply to "Tree-Rings and Volcanic Cooling", Nature Geoscience, 5, 837-838, 2012. [Supplementary Figure & Caption] [altmetric]

Goosse, H., Crespin, E., Dubinkina, S., Loutre, M., Mann, M.E., Renssen, H., Sallaz-Damaz, Y., Shindell, D.,The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the "Medieval Climate Anomaly", Climate Dynamics, 39, 2847-2866, 2012. [altmetric]

Kozar, M.E., Mann, M.E., Camargo, S.J., Kossin, J.P., Evans, J.L., Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D18103, doi:10.1029/2011JD017170, 2012. [supplement] [altmetric]

Ning, L., Mann, M.E., Crane, R., Wagener, T., Najjar, R.G., Singh, R., Probabilistic Projections of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States, J. Climate, 25, 5273-5291, 2012. 

Steinman, B.A., Abbott, M.B., Mann, M.E., Stansell, N.D., Finney, B.P, 1500 year quantitative reconstruction of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 109, 11619-11623, 2012. [altmetric]

Fan, F., Mann, M.E., Lee., S, Evans, J.L., Future Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon: An Analysis of the CMIP3 Multi-Model Projections, J. Climate, 25, 3909-3928, 2012. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Fuentes, J.D., Rutherford, S., Underestimation of Volcanic Cooling in Tree-Ring Based Reconstructions of Hemispheric Temperatures, Nature Geoscience, 5, 202-205, 2012. [supplement] [altmetric]

Goosse, H., Crespin, E., Dubinkina, S., Loutre, M., Mann, M.E., Renssen, H., Sallaz-Damaz, Y., Shindell, D.,The medieval climate anomaly in Europe: Comparison of the summer and annual mean signals in two reconstructions and in simulations with data assimilation, Global and Planetary Change, 84-85, 35-47, 2012. [altmetric]

Ning, L., Mann, M.E., Crane, R., Wagener, T., Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States - Validation of Precipitation Downscaling During the Historical Era, J. Climate, 25, 509-526, 2012. [altmetric]

Singh, R., Wagener, T., Van Werkhoven, K., Mann, M.E., Crane, R., A trading-space-for-time approach to probabilistic continuous streamflow predictions in a changing climate — accounting for changing watershed behavior, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1-13, 2011. 

Diaz, H.F., Trigo, R., Hughes, M.K., Mann, M.E., Xoplaki, E., Barriopedro, D., Spatial and temporal characteristics of climate in medieval times revisited,, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92, 1487-1500 2011. [altmetric]

Katz, B., Najjar, R.G., Cronin, T., Rayburn, J., Mann, M.E., Constraints on Lake Agassiz discharge through the late-glacial Champlain Sea (St. Lawrence Lowlands, Canada) using salinity proxies and an estuarine circulation model, Quat. Sci. Rev., 30, 3248-3257, 2011.

Kemp, A.C., Horton, B.P., Donnelly, J.P., Mann, M.E., Vermeer, M., Rahmstorf, S., Reply to Grinsted et al.: Estimating land subsidence in North Carolina, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 108, E783, 2011.

Mann, M.E., On long range dependence in global surface temperature series: An editorial comment, Climatic Change, 107, 267-276, 2011. [altmetric]

Kemp, A.C., Horton, B.P., Donnelly, J.P., Mann, M.E., Vermeer, M., Rahmstorf, S., Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 108, 11017-11022, 2011. [altmetric]

Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S.D., A comment on "A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?" by McShane and Wyner, Ann. Appl. Stat., 5, 65-70, 2011. [supplement] 

Bowman, T.E., Maibach, E., Mann, M.E., Somerville, R.C.J., Seltser, B.J., Fischhoff, B., Gardiner, S.M., Gould, R.J., Leiserowitz, A., Yohe, G., Time to Take Action on Climate Communication, Science, 330, 1044, 2010. [altmetric]

Sriver, R.L., Goes, M., Mann, M.E., Keller, K., Climate response to tropical cyclone-induced ocean mixing in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, J. Geophys. Res., 115, C10042, doi:10.1029/2010JC006106, 2010. [altmetric]

Fan, F., Mann, M.E., Lee., S, Evans, J.L., Observed and Modeled Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon over the Historical Period, J. Climate, 23, 5193-5205, 2010. [altmetric]

Rutherford, S.D, Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Wahl, E.R., Comment on: "A surrogate ensemble study of climate reconstruction methods: Stochasticity and robustness" by Christiansen, Schmith and Thejll., J. Climate, 23, 2832-2838, 2010. 

Foster, G., Annan, J.D., Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Mullan, B., Renwick, J., Salinger, J., Schmidt, G.A., Trenberth, K.E., Comment on "Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature" by J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter., J. Geophys. Res., 115, D09110, doi:10.1029/2009JD012960, 2010. [altmetric]

Goosse, H., Crespin, E., de Montety, A., Mann, M.E., Renssen, H., Timmermann, A., Reconstructing surface temperature changes over the past 600 years using climate model simulations with data assimilation, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D09108, doi:10.1029/2009JD012737, 2010.

Mann, M.E., Zhang, Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Shindell, D., Ammann, C., Faluvegi, G., Ni, F., Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 326, 1256-1260, 2009. [supplement] [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Woodruff, J.D., Donnelly, J.P., Zhang, Z., Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years, Nature, 460, 880-883, 2009. [supplement] [altmetric]

Crespin, E., Goosse, H., Fichefet, T., Mann, M.E., The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation, Climate of the Past, 5, 389-405, 2009. 

Bowman, T.E., Maibach, E., Mann, M.E., Moser, S.C., Somerville, R.C.J., Creating a common climate language, Science, 324, 37, 2009. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Do Global Warming and Climate Change Represent a Serious Threat to our Welfare and Environment, Social Philosophy and Policy, 26, 389-405, 2009. 

Malone, R.W., Meek, D.W., Hatfield, J.L., Mann, M.E., Jaquis, R.J., Ma, L., Quasi-Biennial Corn Yield Cycles in Iowa, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 1087-1094, 2009.

Fan, F., Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Understanding Changes in the Asian Summer Monsoon over the Past Millennium: Insights From a Long-Term Coupled Model Simulation, J. Climate, 22, 1736-1748, 2009. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A., Miller, S.K., LeGrande, A.N., Potential biases in inferring Holocene temperature trends from long-term borehole information, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05708, doi:10.1029/2008GL036354, 2009. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Defining Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, 4065-4066, 2009. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Reply to McIntyre and McKitrick: Proxy-based temperature reconstructions are robust, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, E11, 2009. [altmetric]

Steig, E.J., Schneider, D.P. Rutherford, S.D., Mann, M.E., Comiso, J.C., Shindell, D.T., Warming of the Antarctic ice sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year, Nature, 1457, 459-463, 2009.
[Corrigendum (Steig et al, 2009)] [altmetric]

Jones, P.D., Briffa, K.R., Osborn, T.J., Lough, J.M., van Ommen, T.D., Vinther, B.M., Luterbacher, J., Wahl, E.R., Zwiers, F.W., Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A., Ammann, C.M., Buckley, B.M., Cobb, K.M., Esper, J., Goosse, H., Graham, N., Jansen, E., Kiefer, T, Kull, C., Kuttel, M., Mosely-Thompson, E., Overpeck, J.T., Riedwyl, N., Schulz, M., Tudhope, A.W., Villalba, R., Wanner, H., Wolff, E., Xoplaki, E., High-resolution paleoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects, Holocene, 19, 3-49, 2009. [altmetric]

Wei, F., Xie, Y., Mann, M.E. Probabilistic trend of anomalous summer rainfall in Beijing: Role of interdecadal variability, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20106, doi:10.1029/2008JD010111, 2008. 

Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Reply to: "Comment on 'Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods', by Mann et al.", J. Geophys. Res., 113, D18107, doi:10.1029/2008JD009964, 2008. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Zhang, Z., Hughes, M.K., Bradley, R.S., Miller, S.K., Rutherford, S., Proxy-Based Reconstructions of Hemispheric and Global Surface Temperature Variations over the Past Two Millennia, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 105, 13252-13257, 2008. [supplement] [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Smoothing of Climate Time Series Revisited, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L16708, doi:10.1029/2008GL034716, 2008. [supplement] [altmetric]

Foster, G., Annan, J.D., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Comment on "Heat Capacity, Time Constant, and Sensitivity of Earth's Climate System" by S. E. Schwartz, J. Geophys. Res., 113, L22707, D15102, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009373, 2008. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Sabbatelli, T.A., Neu, U., Evidence for a Modest Undercount Bias in Early Historical Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22707, doi:10.1029/2007GL031781, 2007. [supplement] [altmetric]

Delworth, T.L., Zhang, R., Mann, M.E., Decadal to Centennial Variability of the Atlantic from Observations and Models, in Past and Future Changes of the Oceans Meridional Overturning Circulation: Mechanisms and Impacts, A. Schmittner, J. C. H. Chiang, and S.R. Hemming (eds), Geophysical Monograph Series 173, American Geophysical Union, 131-148, 2007. 

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Reply to Comments on "Testing the Fidelity of Methods Used in Proxy-based Reconstructions of Past Climate" by Smerdon and Kaplan, J. Climate, 20, 5671-5674, 2007. [altmetric]

Sabbatelli, T.A., Mann, M.E., The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17114, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008385, 2007. [supplement] 

Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Holland, G.J., Webster, P.J., Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Revisited, Eos, 88, 36, p. 349-350, 2007. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Reply to Comments on "Testing the Fidelity of Methods Used in Proxy-based Reconstructions of Past Climate" by Zorita et al, J. Climate, 20, 3699-3703, 2007. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Robustness of Proxy-Based Climate Field Reconstruction Methods, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12109, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008272, 2007. [supplement] [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Climate Over the Past Two Millennia, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 35, 111-136, 2007. 
[electronic reprint in html or pdf format (personal use only)]

Mann, M.E., Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., Kiefer, T., Kull, C., Wanner, H., Past Millennia Climate Variability,Eos, 87, 526-527, 2006.

Goosse, H., Arzel, O., Luterbacher, J., Mann, M.E., Renssen, H., Riedwyl, N., Timmermann, A., Xoplaki, E., Wanner, H., The origin of the European "Medieval Warm Period", Climate of the Past, 2, 99-113, 2006.

Goosse, H., Renssen, H., Timmermann, A., Bradley, R.S., Mann, M.E., Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium, Climate Dynamics, 27, 165-184, 2006.

Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. [supplement]

Mann, M.E., Climate Changes Over the Past Millennium: Relationships with Mediterranean Climates, Nuovo Cimento C, 29, 73-80, 2006.

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Testing the Fidelity of Methods Used in Proxy-based Reconstructions of Past Climate, Journal of Climate, 18, 4097-4107, 2005.

Knight, J.R., Allan, R.J., Folland, C.K., Vellinga, M., Mann, M.E., A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L20708, doi:10.1029/2005GL024233, 2005.

Cronin, T.M., Thunell, R., Dwyer, G.S., Saenger, C., Mann, M.E., Vann, C., Seal, R.R. II, Multiproxy evidence of Holocene climate variability from estuarine sediments, eastern North America, Paleoceanography, 20, PA4006, doi: 10.1029/2005PA001145, 2005.

Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Osborn, T.J., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Methodology, Predictor Network, Target Season and Target Domain, Journal of Climate, 18, 2308-2329, 2005.

Cook, B.I., Smith, T.M., Mann, M.E., The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over Europe, Global Change Biology, 11, 919-926, 2005.

Frauenfeld, O.W., Davis, R.E., Mann, M.E., A Distinctly Interdecadal Signal of Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, Journal of Climate, 18, 1709-1718, 2005.

Mann, M.E., Cane, M.A., Zebiak, S.E., Clement, A., Volcanic and Solar Forcing of the Tropical Pacific Over the Past 1000 Years, Journal of Climate, 18, 447-456, 2005.

D'Arrigo, R.D., Cook, E.R., Wilson, R.J., Allan, R., Mann, M.E., On the Variability of ENSO Over the Past Six Centuries, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L03711, doi: 10.1029/2004GL022055, 2005.

Zhang, Z., Mann, M.E., Coupled Patterns of Spatiotemporal Variability in Northern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure and Conterminous U.S. Drought, Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D03108, doi: 10.1029/2004JD004896, 2005.

Schmidt, G.A., Shindell, D.T., Miller, R.L., Mann, M.E., Rind, D., General Circulation Modeling of Holocene climate variability, Quaternary Science Reviews, 23, 2167-2181, 2004.

Cook, B.I., Mann, M.E., D'Odorico, P., Smith, T.M., Statistical Simulation of the Influence of the NAO on European Winter Surface Temperatures: Applications to Phenological Modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D16106, doi: 10.1029/2003JD004305, 2004.

Zhang, Z., Mann, M.E., Cook, E.R., Alternative methods of proxy-based climate field reconstruction: application to summer drought over the conterminous United States back to AD 1700 from tree-ring data, The Holocene, 14, 502-516, 2004.

Andronova, N.G., Schlesinger, M.E., Mann, M.E., Are Reconstructed Pre-Instrumental Hemispheric Temperatures Consistent With Instrumental Hemispheric Temperatures?, Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L12202, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019658, 2004.

Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Climate Over Past Millennia, Reviews of Geophysics, 42, RG2002, doi: 10.1029/2003RG000143, 2004.

Mann, M.E., On Smoothing Potentially Non-Stationary Climate Time Series, Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L07214, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019569, 2004. [supplement]

Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Reply to comment on "Ground vs. surface air temperature trends: Implications for borehole surface temperature reconstructions" by D. Chapman et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L07206, doi: 10.1029/2003GL0119144, 2004.

L'Heureux, M.L., Mann, M.E., Cook B.I., Gleason, B.E., Vose, R.S., Atmospheric Circulation Influences on Seasonal Precipitation Patterns in Alaska during the latter 20th Century, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D06106, doi:10.1029/2003JD003845, 2004.

Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Faluvegi, G., Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D05104, doi: 10.1029/2003JD004151, 2004.

Adams, J.B., Mann, M.E., D'Hondt, S., The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction: Modeling carbon flux and ecological response, Paleoceanography, 19, PA1002, doi: 10.1029/2002PA000849, 2004.

Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Miller, R.L., Mann, M.E., Volcanic and Solar Forcing of Climate Change during the Preindustrial Era, Journal of Climate, 16, 4094-4107, 2003.

Adams, J.B., Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Proxy Evidence for an El Nino-like Response to Volcanic Forcing, Nature, 426, 274-278, 2003.

Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Oppenheimer, M., Osborn, T.J., Overpeck, J. T., Rutherford, S., Trenberth, K.E., Wigley, T.M.L., Response to Comment on 'On Past Temperatures and Anomalous Late 20th Century Warmth', Eos, 84, 473, 2003.

Mann, M.E., Paleoclimate, Global Change, and the Future (book review), Eos, 84, 419-420, 2003.

Mann, M.E., Jones, P.D., Global surface temperature over the past two millennia, Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (15), 1820, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017814, 2003.

Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Oppenheimer, M., Osborn, T.J., Overpeck, J.T., Rutherford, S., Trenberth, K.E., Wigley, T.M.L., On Past Temperatures and Anomalous Late 20th Century Warmth, Eos, 84, 256-258, 2003.

Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A., Ground vs. Surface Air Temperature Trends: Implications for Borehole Surface Temperature Reconstructions,Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (12), 1607, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017170, 2003.

Andrews, J.T., Hardadottir, J., Stoner, J.S., Mann, M.E., Kristjansdottir, G.B., Koc, N., Decadal to Millennial-scale periodicities in North Iceland shelf sediments over the last 12,000 cal yrs: long-term North Atlantic oceanographic variability and Solar Forcing, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 210, 453-465, 2003.

D'Arrigo, R.D., Cook, E.R., Mann, M.E., Jacoby, G.C., Tree-ring reconstructions of temperature and sea-level pressure variability associated with the warm-season Arctic Oscillation since AD 1650, Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (11), 1549, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017250, 2003.

Covey, C., AchutaRao, K.M., Cubasch, U., Jones, P.D., Lambert, S.J., Mann, M.E., Philips, T.J., Taylor, K.E., An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Global and Planetary Change, 37, 103-133, 2003.

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Keimig, F.T., Optimal Surface Temperature Reconstructions using Terrestrial Borehole Data, Journal of Geophysical Research, 108 (D7), 4203, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002532, 2003.
[Correction (Rutherford and Mann, 2004)]

Braganza, K., Karoly, D.J., Hirst, A.C., Mann, M.E., Stott, P, Stouffer, R.J., Tett, S.F.B., Simple indices of global climate variability and change: Part I - variability and correlation structure, Climate Dynamics, 20, 491-502, 2003.

Gerber, S., Joos, F., Bruegger, P.P., Stocker, T.F., Mann, M.E., Sitch, S., Constraining Temperature Variations over the last Millennium by Comparing Simulated and Observed Atmospheric CO2, Climate Dynamics, 20, 281-299, 2003.

Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Delworth, T.L., Stouffer, R., Climate Field Reconstruction Under Stationary and Nonstationary Forcing, Journal of Climate, 16, 462-479, 2003.

Druckenbrod, D., Mann, M.E., Stahle, D.W., Cleaveland, M.K., Therrell, M.D., Shugart, H.H., Late 18th Century Precipitation Reconstructions from James Madison's Montpelier Plantation, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84, 57-71, 2003.

Ribera, P., Mann, M.E., ENSO related variability in the Southern Hemisphere, 1948-2000, Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (1), 1006, doi: 10.1029/2002GL015818, 2003.

Ghil, M., Allen, M.R., Dettinger, M.D., Ide, K., Kondrashov, D., Mann, M.E., Robertson, A.W., Tian, Y., Varadi, F., Yiou, P., Advanced Spectral Methods for Climatic Time Series, Reviews of Geophysics, 40 (1), 1003, doi: 10.1029/2000RG000092, 2002.

Mann, M.E. Large-Scale Climate Variability and Connections With the Middle East in Past Centuries, Climatic Change, 55, 287-314, 2002.

Mann, M.E., The Value of Multiple Proxies, Science, 297, 1481-1482, 2002.

Cook, E.R., D'Arrigo, R.D., Mann, M.E., A Well-Verified, Multi-Proxy Reconstruction of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Since AD 1400, J. Climate, 15, 1754-1765, 2002.

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Climate Reconstruction Using 'Pseudoproxies', Geophysical Research Letters, 29 (10), 1501, doi: 10.1029/2001GL014554, 2002.

Ribera, P., Mann, M.E., Interannual variability in the NCEP Reanalysis 1948-1999, Geophysical Research Letters, 29 (10), 1494, doi: 10.1029/2001GL013905, 2002.

Mann, M.E., Hughes, M.K., Tree-Ring Chronologies and Climate Variability, Science, 296, 848, 2002.

Waple, A., Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Long-term Patterns of Solar Irradiance Forcing in Model Experiments and Proxy-based Surface Temperature Reconstructions, Climate Dynamics, 18, 563-578, 2002.

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Cole, J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, J.M., Overpeck, J.T., von Storch, H., Wanner, H., Weber, S.L., Widmann, M., Reconstructing the Climate of the Late Holocene, Eos, 82, 553, 2001.

Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E.,Mann, M.E. Medieval Climatic Optimum, Encylopedia of Global Environmental Change,John Wiley and Sons Ltd, London, UK, pp. 514-516, 2001.

Mann, M.E. Little Ice Age, Encylopedia of Global Environmental Change, John Wiley and Sons Ltd, London, UK, pp. 504-509, 2001.

Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Rind, D., Waple, A., Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum, Science, 7, 2149-2152, 2001.

Mann, M.E., Large-scale Temperature Patterns in Past Centuries: Implications for North American Climate Change, Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 7, 1247-1254, 2001.

Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Scope of Medieval Warming, Science, 292, 2011-2012, 2001.

Mann, M.E. Climate During the Past Millennium, Weather (invited contribution), 56, 91-101, 2001.

Folland, C.K., Karl, T.R., Christy, J.R., Clarke, R. A., Gruza, G.V., Jouzel, J., Mann, M.E., Oerlemans, J., Salinger, M.J., Wang, S.-W., Observed Climate Variability and Change, in 2001 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 99-181, 2001. [External Link]

Cullen, H., D'Arrigo, R., Cook, E., and Mann, M.E., Multiproxy-based reconstructions of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the past three centuries, Paleoceanography, 15, 27-39, 2001.

Mann, M.E., Gille, E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Overpeck, J.T., Keimig, F.T., Gross, W., Global Temperature Patterns in Past Centuries: An interactive presentation, Earth Interactions, 4-4, 1-29, 2000. [External Link]

Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Mann, M.E., Comments on 'Detection and Attribution of Recent Climate Change: A Status Report', Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81, 2987-2990, 2000.

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Long-term variability in the El Nino Southern Oscillation and associated teleconnections, Diaz, H.F. and Markgraf, V. (eds) El Nino and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Variability and its Impacts on Natural Ecosystems and Society, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 357-412, 2000.

Delworth, T.L., and Mann, M.E., Observed and Simulated Multidecadal Variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Climate Dynamics, 16, 661-676, 2000.

Mann, M.E., Lessons For a New Millennium, Science, 289, 253-254, 2000.

Rittenour, T., Brigham-Grette, J., Mann, M.E., El Nino-like Climate Teleconnections in North America During the Late Pleistocene: Insights From a New England Glacial Varve Chronology, Science, 288, 1039-1042, 2000.

Park, J., Mann, M.E.Interannual Temperature Events and Shifts in Global Temperature: A Multiple Wavelet Correlation Approach, Earth Interactions, 4-001,1-36, 2000.

Mann, M.E., Park, J, Oscillatory Spatiotemporal Signal Detection in Climate Studies: A Multiple-Taper Spectral Domain Approach, Advances in Geophysics, 41, 1-131, 1999. (click here for version w/ color figures) [supplement]

Jain, S., Lall, U., Mann, M.E., Seasonality and Interannual Variations of Variations of Northern Hemisphere Temperature: Equator-to-Pole Gradient and Land-Ocean Contrast, Journal of Climate, 12, 1086-1100, 1999.

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K., Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations, Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 759-762, 1999. [supplement]

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K. and Jones, P.D., Global Temperature Patterns, Science, 280, 2029-2030, 1998.

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K. Global-Scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing Over the Past Six Centuries, Nature, 392, 779-787, 1998. 
[Corrigendum (Mann, Bradley, and Hughes, 2004)] [supplement]

Rajagopalan, B., Mann, M.E., and Lall, U., A Multivariate Frequency-Domain Approach to Long-Lead Climatic Forecasting, Weather and Forecasting, 13, 58-74, 1998.

Beniston, M., Pielke, R.A., Arpe, K., Keuler, K., Laprise, R., Mann, M.E., Rinke, A., Parker, D.E., Climate Modelers Meet in Switzerland, Eos, 78, 383, 1997.

Mann, M.E., Park, J., Joint Spatio-Temporal Modes of Surface Temperature and Sea Level Pressure Variability in the Northern Hemisphere During the Last Century, Journal of Climate, 9, 2137-2162, 1996.

Mann, M.E., Lees. J., Robust Estimation of Background Noise and Signal Detection in Climatic Time Series, Climatic Change, 33, 409-445, 1996. [supplement]

Koch, D., Mann, M.E., Spatial and Temporal Variability of 7Be Surface Concentrations, Tellus, 48B, 387-396, 1996.

Abarbanel, H., Lall, U., Moon, Y.I., Mann, M.E., Sangoyomi, T., Nonlinear dynamics and the Great Salt Lake: A Predictable Indicator of Regional Climate, Energy, 21, 655-665, 1996.

Mann, M.E., Park, J., Greenhouse Warming and Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Temperature: Model Versus Observations, Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 1111-1114, 1996. [supplement]

Mann, M.E., Park, J., Bradley, R.S., Global Interdecadal and Century-Scale Climate Oscillations During the Past Five Centuries, Nature, 378, 266-270, 1995.

Lall, U., Mann, M.E., The Great Salt Lake: A Barometer of Low-Frequency Climatic Variability, Water Resources Research, 31,2503-2515, 1995.

Mann, M.E., Lall, U., Saltzman, B., Decadal-to-century scale climate variability: Insights into the Rise and Fall of the Great Salt Lake, Geophysical Research Letters, 22, 937-940, 1995.

Marshall, S., Mann, M.E., Oglesby, R., Saltzman, B., A comparison of the CCM1-simulated climates for pre-industrial and present-day C02 levels, Global and Planetary Change, 10, 163-180, 1995.

Mann, M.E., Park, J., Global scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century time scales, Journal of Geophysical Research, 99, 25819-25833, 1994.

Mann, M.E., Park, J., Spatial Correlations of Interdecadal Variation in Global Surface Temperatures, Geophysical Research Letters, 20, 1055-1058, 1993.

 

David Spratt has been Climate Research Coordinator for the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration (Melbourne) since 2014. He was co-founder of the Climate Action Centre (2009-2012). Below are a few of the research papers he has published which have been relevant to our climate analysis processes. While we mostly agree with his climate research, there are some minor areas in which we at Job One disagree.

WHAT LIES BENEATH: THE UNDERSTATEMENT OF EXISTENTIAL CLIMATE RISK Book Aug 2018.

Disaster Alley: Climate change, conflict and risk Book, June 2017

Antarctic Tipping Points for a Multi-metre Sea Level Rise Book, March 2017

Unstoppable fury Article

Climate 'code red Article

 

Peter Carter was an expert reviewer for the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) fifth climate change assessment (AR5, 2014) and the IPCC’s 2018 Special Report on 1.5ºC. In 2018, he published Unprecedented Crime: Climate Science Denial and Game Changers for Survival, which he co-authored with Elizabeth Woodworth. He is published on climate change, biodiversity, and environmental health. Here is Peter Carter's the presented or published climate work:

Ongoing 2020-21  review of the IPCC 6th Assessment  

AGU  Dec 2020  Town Hall The greenhouse gas Earth emergency: The legacy of many — now unavoidable — Earth system and human system impacts

AGU Dec 2020 Utilizing the IPCC for communicating both the full extent of the climate emergency and the required response 

Expert reviewer IPCC  2018 1.5C Special Report 

Expert reviewer of IPCC 2014 5th assessment 

Encyclopedia of Sustainable Development Goals 2019 Environmental health assessment chapter 

Handbook of Climate Change and Biodiversity 2018 Emergency Chapter

Vienna (April 2017) From up-to-date climate and ocean evidence with updated UN emissions projections, the time is now for science to recommend an immediate massive effort on CO2. at the European Geoscience Union Assembly

San Francisco (December 2016) - Climate Golden Age or Greenhouse Gas Dark Age? at the Annual Geophysical Union conference. 

Denver, Colorado (September 2016) – The policy relevance of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration trends to 2016, at the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Science Conference

Oxford, UK (September 2016) – An illustrated guide to the 1.5ºC and 2ºC policy target options, at the 1.5 Degrees: Meeting the Challenges of the Paris Agreement Conference  

Vancouver (2015) – Environmental Health Risk Assessment to Correct Climate Change Policymaking Failure, at the 7th International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts and Responses

San Francisco (2014) – Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change, at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Conference 

Honolulu (2014) – Is committed ocean warming and acidification a planetary emergency? at 2014 Ocean Sciences Meeting 

San Francisco (2013) – Is the world in a state of committed global climate change planetary emergency? at American Geophysical Union (AGU) Conference

London (2013) – Radical climate change science for rapid radical emissions reductions, at Tyndall Centre's Radical Emissions Reduction Conference 

Potsdam, Germany (2013) – Committed unavoidable global warming and Northern Hemisphere food security implications to 2100, at IMPACTS WORLD 2013: International Conference on Climate Change Effects (http://www.climate-impacts-2013.org/files/cwi_carter.pdf)

Nairobi, Kenya (2013) – Committed Global Climate Change and African Food Security, at the First Africa Food Security and Adaptation Conference: Harnessing Ecosystem-based Approaches for Food Security and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa

Vancouver (2013) – The compelling case in climate change science for an emergency upgrading of Arctic monitoring capacities, at Arctic Observing Summit

Vienna (2013) – Is the world in a state of climate change planetary emergency? at European Geophysical Union Conference 

Philippines (2012) – Unavoidable global warming commitment and its food security, impacts and risks, implications focused on South East Asia, at International Conference on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Food and Environmental Security 

Seattle (2012) – Committed global climate change and food security: Linking the unavoidable lags between rapid emissions reduction for climate stabilization on crop yields using climate crop model projections, at 4th International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts and Responses (http://ijc.cgpublisher.com/product/pub.185/prod.180)

Edmonton (2012) – Linking fossil fuel resource development with the environmental health risks of global climate change, particularly to the global south, for planning mitigation responses, at 8th International Symposium on Society and Resource Management 

 

Other Job One for Humanity References in addition to what is found on our website pages and end notes

Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, Feng He, Nathaniel A. Lifton, Zhengyu Liu, & Bette L. Otto-Bliesner. "Regional and global forcing of glacier retreat during the last deglaciation." Nature Communications, 5, no. 8059 (2015). doi: DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9059

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "Meridional Overturning Circulation." NOAA.gov. Last modified November 10, 2016. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/research/moc/namoc/

Hansen, J., Sato, M., Hearty, P., Ruedy, R., Kelley, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., Russell, G., Tselioudis, G., Cao, J., Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., Tormey, B., Donovan, B., Kandiano, E., von Schuckmann, K., Kharecha, P., Legrande, A. N., Bauer, M., and Lo, K.-W. "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed., “Sea Level Change,” in Climate Change 2013 - The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY (2013): 1137–1216, doi:10.1017/ CBO9781107415324.026

David Spratt. "Climate Reality Check." Breakthrough - National Centre for Climate Restoration. March 2016. http://media.wix.com/ugd/148cb0_4868352168ba49d89358a8a01bc5f80f.pdf

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. "U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters." NOAA.gov. 2016. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

Hansen, James, et al. "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?" The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, no. 1 (2008): 217-231. DOI: 10.2174/1874282300802010217

Hansen, J., et al.. "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous." Atmos.Chem.Phys.net, 16, (2015): doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, 2016.

Nicholas Stern. "Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change." UK Government Web Archive. Last modified July 4, 2010. http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100407172811/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/stern_review_report.htm

Gernot Wagner and Martin Weitzman, Climate Shock (Princeton University Press; April 2016).

A. Dutton, A. E. Carlson, A. J. Long, G. A. Milne, P. U. Clark, R. Deconto, B. P. Horton, S. Rahmstorf, M. E. Raymo, "Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods." Science, July 10, 2015. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/349/6244/aaa4019

Hansen, James, et al. "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?" The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, no. 1 (2008): 217-231. DOI: 10.2174/1874282300802010217

“Scientific consensus: Earth's climate is warming." Climate.Nasa.Gov. Last modified January 24, 2017. http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
90 Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller, eds., "Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change," (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1/

M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Linda Doman. "EIA projects 48% increase in world energy consumption by 2040." U.S. Energy Information Administration. May 12, 2016. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26212

Data from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. "The World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision." UN.org. July 29, 2015. http://www.un.org/en[…]”

Hansen, James, et al. "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?" The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, no. 1 (2008): 217-231. DOI: 10.2174/1874282300802010217

Tim Garrett. "The physics of long-run global economic growth." Utah.edu. 2014. http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~tgarrett/Economics/Economics.html

Tim Garrett. "No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change." arXiv. January 9 2012. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1010.0428v3.pdf

Tim Garrett, interview by Alex Smith, Radio Ecoshock, October 19, 2011, transcript. http://www.ecoshock.org/downloads/climate2010/ES_Garrett_101119_LoFi.mp3

Hansen, James, et al. "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?" The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, no. 1 (2008): 217-231. DOI: 10.2174/1874282300802010217

Veerasamy Sejian, Iqbal Hyder, T. Ezeji, J. Lakritz, Raghavendra Bhatta, J. P. Ravindra, Cadaba S. Prasad, Rattan Lal. "Global Warming: Role of Livestock." Climate Change Impact on Livestock: Adaptation and Mitigation. Springer India (2015): 141-169, doi: 10.1007/978-81-322-2265-1_10

Books

Basseches, Micheal. Dialectical thinking and Adult Development. Ablex Publishing, 1984.

Beinhocker, Eric D. The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Economics and What it Means for Business in Society. Harvard Business Review Press, 2007.

Berry, Thomas. The Great Work: Our Way Into the Future. Broadway Books, 2000.

Bhaskar, Roy. Dialectic: The Pulse of Freedom. Verso, 1993.
Carson, Rachel. Silent Spring. Houghton Mifflin, 1962.

Craven, Greg. What's the Worst That Could Happen?: A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate. Perigee, 2009.

Diamond, Jared. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Penguin Books, 2011.

Esbjorn-Hargens, Sean and and Michael E. Zimmerman. Integral Ecology: Uniting Multiple Perspectives on the Natural World. Integral Books, 2009.

Fisher, Len. Crashes, Crises, and Calamities: How We Can Use Science to Read the Early-Warning Signs. Basic Books, 2011.

Funk, McKenzie. Windfall: The Booming Business of Global Warming. Penguin Press, 2014.

Greer, John M. Dark Age in America: Climate Change, Cultural Collapse, and the Hard Future Ahead. New Society Publishers, 2016.

Guzman, Andrew T. Overheated: The Human Cost of Climate Change. Oxford University Press, 2014.

Hansen, James. Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity. Bloomsbury, 2009.

Jantsch, Erich. Design for Evolution: Self-Organization and Planning in the Life of Human Systems. George Braziller, 1975.

Klein, Naomi. This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate. Simon & Schuster, 2014.

LaConte, Ellen. Life Rules: Nature's Blueprint for Surviving Economic & Environmental Collapse. New Society Publishers, 2012.

Laske, Otto E. Measuring Hidden Dimensions Volume 2: Laske and Associates, 2011.

Lovelock, James. The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning. Basic Books, 2009.

Lynus, Mark. Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet. National Geographic, 2008.

Macy, Joanna and Chris Johnstone. Active Hope: How to Face the Mess We're In Without Going Crazy. New World Library, 2012.

Meadows, Donella H. Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Chelsea Green Publishing, 2008.

Miller, Peter. "Cool It: The Climate Issue." National Geographic, November 2015. Print.

Newitz, Annalee. Scatter, Adapt, and Remember: How Humans Will Survive a Mass Extinction. Doubleday, 2013.

Rich, Nathaniel. Odds Against Tomorrow. Farrah, Strauss and Giroux, 2013

Rifkin, Jeremy. The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power Is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World. St. Martin's Press, 2011.

Sahtouris, Elisabet. EarthDance: Living Systems in Evolution. iUniverse, 2000.

Salthe, Stanley N. Evolving Hierarchical Systems. Columbia University Press, 1985.

Stewart, John. Evolution's Arrow: The Direction of Evolution and the Future of Humanity. Chapman Press, 2000.

Tainter, Joseph A. The Collapse of Complex Societies (New Studies in Archaeology). Cambridge University Press, 1988.

Taleb, Nassim N. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House, 2007.

Wagner, Gernot, and Martin L. Weitzsman, Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet. Princeton University Press, 2015.”

Wollersheim, Lawrence “Climageddon: The Global Warming Emergency and How to Survive It.” Apple Books.

Other

University of Cambridge. "Emissions from melting permafrost could cost $43 trillion." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921112731.htm

Mason Inman. "Carbon is forever." Nature.com. November 20, 2008. http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0812/full/climate.2008.122.html

Show.earth. "Keeling Curve Monthly CO2 Widget." ProOxygen. https://www.show.earth/kc-monthly-co2-widget

"Jevons's paradox," When technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises because of increasing demand. From Wikipedia contributors, Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia.

Rohdes, Robert A. "Variations in concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during the last 400 thousand years." Digital image. Wikimedia Commons. December 21, 2009. Accessed January 11, 2017. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.png.”

Butler, Octavia E. Parable of the Sower. Four Walls Eight Windows, 1993. 

Butler, Octavia E. Parable of the Talents. Seven Stories Press, 1998. 

How Our Research, Review, and Analysis Processes are Unique 

Using the principles of system theory and dialectical metasystemic thinking applied to the climate as a complex adaptive system, we review and then analyze current and past climate change research and public climate summaries for:

1. errors, 

2. omissions, 

3. previously unrecognized positive or negative patterns in or between climate studies,

4. unseen interconnections or consequence connections within and between climate studies, and 

5. the unseen and hidden politicization, censorship, or the watering down of climate science by governmental agencies or other types of agents in public climate summary reports. 

The problems in 1-5 above can significantly affect the validity of current and future statements or positions concerning climate consequence timetables or the frequency, severity, and scale of climate consequences. Using system theory and dialectical metasystemic thinking applied to the climate as a complex adaptive system, we also review research papers and public statements on the climate for:

1. discernable or hidden biases, and

2. undeclared financial or other conflicts of interest.

The above two problems have recently become far more prevalent and have significantly underestimated negative climate consequences in public climate summaries and statements. Climate think tanks, individuals or groups operating as unknown fossil fuel lobbyists, and climate researchers funded by the fossil fuel-related industries have become the biggest offenders in this area. 

Instead of our analyzing only one area of specialized climate study like the oceans, glaciers, ice and snow packs, planetary temperature history, water vapor, soils, forests, or greenhouse gas factors on temperature and the atmosphere, we analyze climate research on how it holistically applies and interrelates to all different areas within and between the climate's interrelated, interconnected, and interdependent systems and subsystems. 

Using the tools of dialectical metasystemic thinking, we examine climate studies, their positions, and the related interactions of the climate system and subsystems through 28 different dialectical analysis perspectives and lenses. This allows us also to see, consider and value natural or human counteractions that may occur in response to the various primary and secondary consequences of climate change and global heating.

After that extensive analysis, we make climate consequence severity and time frame predictions and remedial recommendations for the correct global fossil fuel reduction amounts to minimize human loss and suffering. Our final analysis, forecasts, and recommendations always include all needed adjustments to compensate for any problems, errors, omissions, underestimation, or politicization which we discover in current climate research or summaries. Click here to see the many errors, underestimation, and politicization we found in a major recognized source of global climate research and recommendations. 

Unlike many other climate change think tanks, we do provide prioritized, critical-path, and deadline-driven solutions to the climate change emergency. These solutions are based upon accurate global fossil fuel reduction targets and avoiding the most dangerous climate tipping points and feedbacks deadlines that we currently face. 

Job One for Humanity is currently helping expose the current intense politicization of climate science. This intense politicization of science by the media, governments, and even the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) acts to forward a gross underestimation of our actual and current climate consequences, timeframes, remedies, and condition.

Unexpectedly, our independent climate change analysis has turned us into reluctant whistleblowers exposing how popular and politicized climate data has been distorted to serve the hidden interests of those who gain financially (or in other ways) from the ongoing global use of fossil fuels and hiding the real danger the public faces from the runaway global heating extinction emergency.

Please note that our education materials, because of their serious and adult nature are not meant for adolescents under 16! 

Important information about the validity and reliability of climate science found on the Job One For Humanity website

The scientific method deals in probabilities, not certainties. This is especially true for making climate change predictions, given the complexity of factors that interact to create the climate. While scientific findings on climate change necessarily include uncertainty, the process of deciding public policy for dealing with climate change seeks a certainty that science cannot provide.

In this situation, many concerned climate researchers and scientists urge the application of the precautionary principle. The precautionary principle asserts that policy-makers have a social responsibility to prevent public exposure to harm when scientific investigation has found a plausible risk — even though there can be no assertion of certain risk.

Climate science has shown we are well beyond mere plausible risk with today's runaway global heating emergency. Instead, we are now at probable to highly-probable climate risk levels. Therefore the precautionary principle must be applied and should've been used many decades ago.

Because climate science is constantly evolving and will always be some inherent level of uncertainty, we continually update our climate analysis and conclusions as new climate research becomes available. Wherever possible, we present predictive information in data ranges (such as carbon 425-450 ppm or temperature increases of 2 C to 2.7, etc.) Based on the climate data we are reviewing, we do our best to present what we understand to be the most accurate climate picture. However, as mentioned previously no one can establish 100% scientific certainty about any future phenomena. 

Therefore, we also maintain a wise and continual openness to scientific falsification. We invite our website visitors to make up their minds about the usefulness and validity of our current climate analysis, conclusions, and remedial action steps. And, if you see any error in our climate data, presentation, or predictions, please present your criticism and documentation to [email protected] for review.

We also acknowledge that due to the paucity of climate tipping point and climate feedback loop research, Job One for Humanity could be partially or even wholly wrong concerning any of its predictive climate analysis regarding future levels of average global temperature, atmospheric carbon, global warming consequences, global warming timetables, or correct global fossil fuel reduction targets.

We fully appreciate that the climate is a very complex adaptive system. Many unknowns remain about how it and its subsystems react with each other and with other human, geological and ecological systems outside the climate. 

If you wish to challenge the factualness of anything on our website, please see this page for how to do that.

 

How to challenge the accuracy of anything you see on our website

We openly invite anyone to challenge the correctness of our climate facts or analysis. If you have a legitimate, sincere and credible criticism and challenge, we do want to hear about it. We want to understand all credible challenges and review their science-based foundation, respond to it and if necessary, correct it on our website for the benefit of all.

However, not all published climate research is the same. The climate and global heating facts and analysis found on our website are derived from the published papers and research of independent and unbiased climate scientists and researchers without any vested financial interests in the outcomes of their research. Much of this research is from the same individuals who also submit their original research to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other governments or organizations.

We do not use fossil fuel industry funded think tank research unless we have independently vetted it for problems and errors. When we review climate research from government organizations like NOAA, we are particularly aware of the growing censorship and politically-motivated modification of their climate scientist's research.

This censorship and politicization is particularly true in fossil fuel-producing or dependent countries. Numerous government agencies have repeatedly been caught watering down or hiding critical climate findings to not scare the public or upset national fossil fuel-dependent industries with strong lobbyists. We have become painfully aware that the worse runaway global heating gets, the worse the government censorship and polarization of the actual climate facts has become.

We promote our climate data and analysis accuracy challenge regularly because we believe:

1. We are engaged with other climate researchers, our readers, and our critics in a mutual search for the most accurate climate facts and the best runaway global heating extinction emergency solutions. We also have learned much from outside legitimate science-based criticisms over the years.

2. We understand that our cutting-edge climate analysis and solutions will cause many individuals severe distress and emotional incongruence issues. This distress is because those individuals believed the watered-down versions of our climate condition and future coming from the heavily fossil fuel-influenced media, governments, and environmental groups. (The media, governments, and many environmental organizations are still blindly accepting and promoting  the seriously flawed climate summary reports of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control [IPCC.] Click here to read about the IPCC's many data reliability problems.)

When those individuals read our new climate analysis and climate solutions, many experience very high stress. Initially, and quite naturally, many react with strident denial or an immediate attack on the validity of the stressful information. They do this in part to emotionally and psychologically reconcile the enormous difference between what they have been told about the climate emergency by popular media and "authorities," and what they are reading on our website. Unfortunately, the first reaction of many of these distressed individuals is often a vague and generalized attack on our whole website, an article of ours, or our organization.

We understand that this is a natural reaction to shocking new climate data that, when accepted as accurate, will mean profound and significant changes to one's life plans and sense of safety and security. We truly understand how difficult it is to deal with this shock because we, too, have had to deal with the differences between what official governmental sources and what many of the climate "authorities" are telling us and what is actually in the uncensored climate science and unbiased analysis.

In fact, most of our key staff has been through the Kubler Ross method for dealing with the painful shock of finally understanding the runaway global heating emergency is far, far worse than we are being told! (We strongly suggest this page for anyone dealing with climate shock, anger, denial, anxiety, etc.)

Because we understand the value and importance of 1 and 2 above, we encourage any individual who is shocked or upset about our website's climate research, analysis, or solutions to challenge their accuracy using the criticism and challenge procedure listed below.

This procedure allows us to respond to all legitimate and sincere criticisms and challenges instead of trying to deal with generalized name-calling, insults, or vague or generalized attacks on our articles, website, or organization, for which, there are no effective or proactive ways to respond.  On the other hand, legitimate and sincere criticisms help us forward our non-profit mission goals on educating the public about our current runaway global heating extinction emergency.

To challenge anything you find on our website, please follow these simple guidelines:

Step 1: Be specific about what you are challenging. Include the exact statement or statements that you doubt or find wrong.

Being specific about some fact on our website you doubt or disagree with does not consist of generalized or vague statements or opinions like; "this is nonsense," "I do not like this fact or the way it makes me feel," "seems extreme," "scare tactics," "not enough documentation links," "this is BS," "people will give up hope because of this" or "who are your general authorities, etc."

Instead, please tell us precisely what statement you doubt or find incorrect. We are interested in your legitimate science-grounded criticisms, not in your generalized or vague opinions without credible science to back them up.

There is really nothing we can do to respond to vague, generalized opinions effectively. Still, with your submission of the precise statement(s) you disagree with and the climate science supporting your disagreement, we can engage in a proper academic dialogue that benefits both parties and eventually the general public.

Step 2: Include the climate research or studies that proves your point and demonstrates what we have said is wrong. (Referencing the specific sections of your research study that are most applicable is also helpful.)

We will carefully read the climate research study you send us and reply with either appropriate challenges to that study or results for other more current climate studies that support our position.

Step 3: Send your challenges to [email protected].

 

Our Advisory Board

Our climate research history

Job One For Humanity has been online since early 2008. Although there were earlier versions, the first complete version of the Job One For Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan was created in early 2011. It was designed to help address the lack of adequate progress in fixing climate change over the several preceding decades.

Other Links

Here is a link to our climate science glossary, which will be helpful in reading current climate science.

See the Job One For Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan here.

 

For answers to all of your remaining questions about climate change and global warming, click here for our new climate change FAQ. It has over one hundred of the most asked questions and answers about climate change.

David Spratt's writings have appeared in "The Guardian, “The Age”, “Rolling Stone”, “Energiewende Magazin" and "The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists", amongst others, and online sites including Climate Spectator, Crikey, Renew Economy and New Matilda. He blogs at climatecodered.org on climate science, existential risk, IPCC reticence, the climate emergency and climate movement strategy and communications, and is regular public speaker.

More climate published study references for our website materials

We are in the process of adding scores of additional published papers. This list should be here by July 30, 2022. 

Climate related reference books

We are in the process of adding scores of climate-related books we have referenced. This list should be here by July 30, 2022. 

 

How Our Research, Review, and Analysis Processes is Unique 

Using the principles of system theory and dialectical metasystemic thinking applied to the climate as a complex adaptive system, we review and then analyze the most recent climate change research for errors, omissions, and unrecognized patterns. These errors, omissions, and unrecognized patterns could significantly affect current and future climate consequences' frequency, severity, and scale. Using that same methodology, we also analyze the currently predicted climate timeframes or recommended climate remedies for errors, omissions, or unrecognized patterns. 

We also review all research papers for discernable biases, undeclared financial conflicts of interest, or politicization, which has recently become far more prevalent and usually significantly underestimates negative climate consequences. 

Instead of only analyzing only one niche of climate studies or of the climate system, we analyze current research for how it applies to all of the different areas within and between the climate's interrelated, interconnected, and interdependent systems and subsystems. Using the tools of dialectical metasystemic thinking, we examine climate studies and the related interactions of the climate system through 28 different dialectical analysis perspectives. 

After that extensive analysis process is completed, we make our climate consequence severity and time frame predictions and recommendations for the correct global fossil fuel reduction amounts. Our final analysis, forecasts, and recommendations then include all adjustments needed to compensate for the errors, underestimation, or politicization we discover in that climate research or summaries. Click here to see the errors, underestimation, and politicization we found in the major source of climate research. 

Unlike many other climate change think tanks, we do provide prioritized, critical-path, and deadline-driven solutions to the climate change emergency. These solutions are based on accurate global fossil fuel reduction targets and avoiding the most dangerous climate tipping points and feedbacks deadlines that we currently face. 

Job One for Humanity also exposes the current intense politicization of climate science. This intense politicization of science by the media, governments, and the UN's IPCC acts to forward a gross underestimation of our actual and current climate consequences, timeframes, remedies, and condition. Unexpectedly, our independent climate change analysis has turned us into reluctant whistleblowers exposing how popular climate data has been distorted to serve the hidden interests of those who gain financially (or in other ways) from the ongoing global use of fossil fuels and hiding the real danger the public faces from the runaway global heating extinction emergency.

Additional information about the validity and reliability of the climate science found on the Job One For Humanity website

The scientific method deals in probabilities, not certainties. This is especially true for making climate change predictions, given the complexity of factors that interact to create the climate. While scientific findings on climate change necessarily include uncertainty, the process of deciding public policy for dealing with climate change seeks a certainty that science cannot provide.

In this situation, many concerned climate researchers and scientists urge the application of the precautionary principle. The precautionary principle asserts that policy-makers have a social responsibility to prevent public exposure to harm when scientific investigation has found a plausible risk — even though there can be no assertion of certain risk.

Climate science has shown we are well beyond mere plausible risk with today's runaway global heating emergency. Instead, we are now at probable to highly-probable climate risk levels. Therefore the precautionary principle must be applied and should've been used many decades ago.

Because climate science is constantly evolving and will always be some inherent level of uncertainty, we continually update our climate analysis and conclusions as new climate research becomes available. Wherever possible, we present predictive information in data ranges (such as carbon 425-450 ppm or temperature increases of 2 C to 2.7, etc.) Based on the climate data we are reviewing, we do our best to present what we understand to be the most accurate climate picture. However, as mentioned previously no one can establish 100% scientific certainty about any future phenomena. 

Therefore, we also maintain a wise and continual openness to scientific falsification. We invite our website visitors to make up their minds about the usefulness and validity of our current climate analysis, conclusions, and remedial action steps. And, if you see any error in our climate data, presentation, or predictions, please present your criticism and documentation to [email protected] for review.

We also acknowledge that due to the paucity of climate tipping point and climate feedback loop research, Job One for Humanity could be partially or even wholly wrong concerning any of its predictive climate analysis regarding future levels of average global temperature, atmospheric carbon, global warming consequences, global warming timetables, or correct global fossil fuel reduction targets.

We fully appreciate that the climate is a very complex adaptive system. Many unknowns remain about how it and its subsystems react with each other and with other human, geological and ecological systems outside the climate. 

And finally, we always do our best to provide documentation links to any underlying climate research or analysis upon which we are basing a climate statement or position. 

How to challenge the accuracy of anything you see on our website

We openly invite anyone to challenge the correctness of our climate facts or analysis. If you have a legitimate, sincere and credible criticism and challenge, we do want to hear about it. We want to understand all credible challenges and review their science-based foundation, respond to it and if necessary, correct it on our website for the benefit of all.

However, not all published climate research is the same. The climate and global heating facts and analysis found on our website are derived from the published papers and research of independent and unbiased climate scientists and researchers without any vested financial interests in the outcomes of their research. Much of this research is from the same individuals who also submit their original research to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other governments or organizations.

We do not use fossil fuel industry funded think tank research unless we have independently vetted it for problems and errors. When we review climate research from government organizations like NOAA, we are particularly aware of the growing censorship and politically-motivated modification of their climate scientist's research.

This censorship and politicization is particularly true in fossil fuel-producing or dependent countries. Numerous government agencies have repeatedly been caught watering down or hiding critical climate findings to not scare the public or upset national fossil fuel-dependent industries with strong lobbyists. We have become painfully aware that the worse runaway global heating gets, the worse the government censorship and polarization of the actual climate facts has become.

We promote our climate data and analysis accuracy challenge regularly because we believe:

1. We are engaged with other climate researchers, our readers, and our critics in a mutual search for the most accurate climate facts and the best runaway global heating extinction emergency solutions. We also have learned much from outside legitimate science-based criticisms over the years.

2. We understand that our cutting-edge climate analysis and solutions will cause many individuals severe distress and emotional incongruence issues. This distress is because those individuals believed the watered-down versions of our climate condition and future coming from the heavily fossil fuel-influenced media, governments, and environmental groups. (The media, governments, and many environmental organizations are still blindly accepting and promoting  the seriously flawed climate summary reports of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control [IPCC.] Click here to read about the IPCC's many data reliability problems.)

When those individuals read our new climate analysis and climate solutions, many experience very high stress. Initially, and quite naturally, many react with strident denial or an immediate attack on the validity of the stressful information. They do this in part to emotionally and psychologically reconcile the enormous difference between what they have been told about the climate emergency by popular media and "authorities," and what they are reading on our website. Unfortunately, the first reaction of many of these distressed individuals is often a vague and generalized attack on our whole website, an article of ours, or our organization.

We understand that this is a natural reaction to shocking new climate data that, when accepted as accurate, will mean profound and significant changes to one's life plans and sense of safety and security. We truly understand how difficult it is to deal with this shock because we, too, have had to deal with the differences between what official governmental sources and what many of the climate "authorities" are telling us and what is actually in the uncensored climate science and unbiased analysis.

In fact, most of our key staff has been through the Kubler Ross method for dealing with the painful shock of finally understanding the runaway global heating emergency is far, far worse than we are being told! (We strongly suggest this page for anyone dealing with climate shock, anger, denial, anxiety, etc.)

Because we understand the value and importance of 1 and 2 above, we encourage any individual who is shocked or upset about our website's climate research, analysis, or solutions to challenge their accuracy using the criticism and challenge procedure listed below.

This procedure allows us to respond to all legitimate and sincere criticisms and challenges instead of trying to deal with generalized name-calling, insults, or vague or generalized attacks on our articles, website, or organization, for which, there are no effective or proactive ways to respond.  On the other hand, legitimate and sincere criticisms help us forward our non-profit mission goals on educating the public about our current runaway global heating extinction emergency.

To challenge anything you find on our website, please follow these simple guidelines:

Step 1: Be specific about what you are challenging. Include the exact statement or statements that you doubt or find wrong.

Being specific about some fact on our website you doubt or disagree with does not consist of generalized or vague statements or opinions like; "this is nonsense," "I do not like this fact or the way it makes me feel," "seems extreme," "scare tactics," "not enough documentation links," "this is BS," "people will give up hope because of this" or "who are your general authorities, etc."

Instead, please tell us precisely what statement you doubt or find incorrect. We are interested in your legitimate science-grounded criticisms, not in your generalized or vague opinions without credible science to back them up.

There is really nothing we can do to respond to vague, generalized opinions effectively. Still, with your submission of the precise statement(s) you disagree with and the climate science supporting your disagreement, we can engage in a proper academic dialogue that benefits both parties and eventually the general public.

Step 2: Include the climate research or studies that proves your point and demonstrates what we have said is wrong. (Referencing the specific sections of your research study that are most applicable is also helpful.)

We will carefully read the climate research study you send us and reply with either appropriate challenges to that study or results for other more current climate studies that support our position.

Step 3: Send your challenges to [email protected].

Our climate research history

Job One For Humanity has been online since early 2008. Although there were earlier versions, the first complete version of the Job One For Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan was created in early 2011. It was designed to help address the lack of adequate progress in fixing climate change over the several preceding decades.

Other Links

Here is a link to our climate science glossary, which will be helpful in reading current climate science.

See the Job One For Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan here.

Discover amazing information, tools, alerts, and promotional benefits for becoming a Job One for Humanity climate change think tank donor/supporter/member by clicking here!

Last Updated 10.24.23

Special notice: it is essential to realize that everything described below is the governmental emergency backup plan designed to save some part of humanity. It must be done while our governments are also simultaneously completing all of the global fossil fuel reduction actions described on this critical page.)

Unfortunately, even if we come close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets but do not get close enough, we will still face a highly probable near-total extinction by 2070-2080. We need to prepare ourselves NOW. The unavoidable deaths of half of humanity by mid-century will produce widespread social, economic, and political chaos illustrated by the many climate change consequences and processes described in painful detail on this page. 

What this means on a national level is that we need a national-level emergency backup plan or a PLAN B, as it is often called. 

On a national level, as part of our Plan B, we must prepare, adapt, and save and salvage whatever we can before it is too late. We need to build some level of near-total to total extinction resilience quickly. (Ideally, we should be building an international extinction resiliency, but we currently have no genuinely effective international global governance that could do this for us.)

At some point, our politicians and governments will finally begin to do everything they can to come as close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets as fast as possible. They must also simultaneously also manage the current runaway global heating process of multiple threats and multiple consequences.

Our governments can enact a climate change extinction prevention process and Plan B by moving critical resources, technology, infrastructure, and at-risk populations into the global warming safer zones as soon as possible. But this must be done wisely, equitably, and orderly way.

For our politicians and governments to effectively manage a global warming-driven extinction and collapse process, they also will have to evolve new forms of international and global governance and cooperation quickly. This new global governance would need powers to verify, enforce or punish any nation that tried to game or cheat making the complex global governmental Plan B changes required to save whatever portion of humanity and civilization we can for the future. 

Only our national governments collaborating in tight alignment can slow down our current runaway global heating enough to allow more people to survive, live longer, and live more stably. Unfortunately, the probability of our governments cooperating internationally like this before it is too late to save humanity from near-total to total extinction is very low. 

Please click here to view a detailed description of the many climate change-driven step-by-step processes of mass human extinction.

Please click here to read the many near-insurmountable challenges our national governments must overcome to save humanity from the current climate change-driven extinction process.

 

 

At least, with this governmental level, emergency backup Plan B successfully executed, we can save and salvage more of humanity. Then, hopefully, those survivors can re-populate the earth and preserve the best of our civilization. 

If you still doubt that immediately beginning a government-driven, well-resourced Plan B backup and resiliency plan against climate change near-total extinction prevention failure is necessary, please read this page.

 

 

 

The key runaway global heating government actions to save and salvage what we can while we still have time

Global warming and these other 11 poorly managed critical global challenges we currently face are most likely getting a lot worse before they get better. While the actions below are directly focused on the more immediate threat of the runaway global heating emergency, indirectly, they too will also be helpful to make things more survivable as our other critical global challenges continue to worsen.) 

Action Step 1. Our governments must begin moving critical resources, technology, key infrastructure, and our younger at-risk populations into the global warming safer zones in a wise, equitable, and well-managed way. 

For our long-term future and safety, essential resources, infrastructure, and crucial genetic and social diversity transfers will need to be executed simultaneously as the other individual and business action steps (above) are being done. If things continue to go wrong as they are now, this government action step may turn out to be the most important action taken for the future of humanity and for preserving civilization.

Of all of the things to be done in this step, working out a migration plan for a fair and equitable migration lottery for all those younger individuals who have not already migrated will be the most challenging. This equitable migration management is critical because of the poor soils and shorter growing seasons above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south.

Those above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south areas of deficient soils and inadequate sunlight will not be able to grow enough food to feed our current human population. Because of this food production limitation, a fair lottery will be essential to the survival of humanity and civilization.

Even before this lottery begins, our best scientists must determine how much food can be grown in those global warming-safe areas and what the maximum allowable population should be. These calculations are based on the total amount of food needed for that existing population while maintaining adequate food reserves for unplanned and unexpected contingencies. Once they have those calculations, they can set initial and/or adjust lottery migration allocations as conditions change. 

Even before the final number of people that the remaining global warming safe zones will support with adequate food production, we must also mobilize the necessary agricultural resources to scale up food production but only in sustainable and non-fossil fuel fertilizer-dependent ways. This intense scaling-up of sustainable agricultural production output will allow for the rapid increase of new climate migrants (climagees) coming to those safer zones as well as to compensate for the generally more deficient soils, reduced sunlight and shorter growing season found there.

One more thing must be said about the migration lottery. It must be almost entirely for individuals under 30 or those older than 40 with young children. The older generations have failed to pass on a livable legacy to the younger generations. The older generations have also lived far longer and more stable lives than the younger X, Y, and Z generations ever will. Therefore, generational justice demands that the most survivable remaining areas go to the younger generations.

The lottery cannot be hijacked or dominated by wealthy individuals, politicians, high-level government agency staff, corporations, or any nation. No special interest group or nation can unjustly control or determine who can migrate based on privilege, position, wealth, politics, or any other national, cultural, or social categorization.

Politicians and the ultra-wealthy top 5% of the world's citizens especially must be excluded from this lottery because, through either commissions or omissions, they have allowed the climate change extinction emergency to grow continually worse for over 60 years. They had the power of influence to stop the climate nightmare, and they did not. Climate change justice demands they be left behind. 

If it is not a fair and just lottery, based upon what is essential for humanity and civilization to survive and an equitable representation of all of the categories mentioned above, then those left behind will fight to the death and eventually bring about the end of everything. This new lottery failure conflict will occur because those who feel the lottery was unfair will invade the safe zones. They will use whatever nuclear, biological, or chemical warfare technology has been left behind in unsafe zones.

Those with any decision power over who is allowed to migrate can not be allowed to use their political, military, or financial positions, advantages, or privileges to place themselves, their families, friends, allies, or business interests in any better position than any other individual citizen in the unsafe zones in these lotteries. 

Any random lottery winner selection methodology must draw only from a pool of the most qualified climagees with the essential skills and sufficient genetic diversity for the new world we will be living in. It must also have independent safeguards to prevent fraud, bias, and any form of selection favoritism.

This lottery must also allow for the following types of necessary diversity; genetic, national, racial, ethnic, religious, cultural, sexual orientation, gender identity, rural/urban/indigenous, and rich/poor. Communities most affected by global warming damage, which also have contributed the least to the climate change emergency, should receive special consideration if justice is to be served.

Having enough genetic diversity will be extremely important because most of humanity by mid-century will eventually die. This will occur as we approach the final global warming extinction tipping point of carbon 600 ppm. 

Because of the very limited numbers of additional individuals that the global warming safer areas can sustain and feed the lottery selection for legal migration to the global warming safer zones must be just and fair to be viewed as credible and so that it has the best chance to work. 

There are many good reasons for executing this last chance to save humanity and civilization migration, lottery, and infrastructure transfer backup plan simultaneously with the other action steps described at the top of this page. Here are just a few reminders:

First, we are fighting for the very survival of humanity over the next 30 to 50+ years. Most, if not all, of humanity and civilization will end if we fail to slow and lessen global warming enough not to cross carbon 600 ppm and we fail to move our critical infrastructure and essential populations to the far north or the far south in time. 

Secondly, Our fossil fuel "bill of consequences" has come due, and there's no way to escape it. We now have to deal with the horrible accumulated consequences of the fossil fuel carbon pollution of our atmosphere for the last 200 years (since the industrial revolution began. ) Additionally, we also have to deal with the extra accumulating consequences from fossil fuel burning over the next 30-50+ years where we will undoubtedly reach the carbon 500 ppm level (and most likely reach carbon 600 ppm extinction level.) 

Thirdly, the fossil fuel pollution that we have now and will continue to put into our atmosphere for the next 30-50+ years will last for centuries to thousands of years! If we stay on our current path of "too little fossil fuel reductions too late," things will not be better for those who are lucky enough to survive. Our children and future generations will curse us for our selfishness and blind stupidity. They will suffer for many centuries before their climate will re-stabilize and carbon in parts per million level to drop back down to the pre-industrial safer carbon level of 350-270 ppm. (As mentioned earlier, we are now at about carbon 420 ppm adding about three additional carbon ppm each year.)

Forthy, the amount of emergency adaptation work needed and the short amount of time available (from now until about 2031 as things get progressively to exponentially much worse) makes this immediate adaptation and preparation and planning an imperative! Adapting and moving all necessary critical resources, technology, and infrastructure will take a lot of time. This mass transfer means moving them into the safer areas near or above the 45th parallel north or near or below the 45th parallel south. (You do not want to move much above the 55th parallel north or much above the 55th parallel south.)

And finally, these transfers will be a massive undertaking, requiring new levels of cooperation between nations never seen before.

This mass population transfer and the demands for climate justice also mean:

1. Moving willing people that are already suffering and are the most vulnerable today to the worst global warming consequences. This initial series of mass migrations must be done without panic and in a well-organized and well-supported way. These first migration relocations also will be a necessary rehearsal for the additional millions of people that will need to be relocated each year as global warming worsens and makes growing food and surviving impossible in many areas.

2. Moving hundreds of millions of willing people (eventually as many as several billion) from the most unsafe global warming zones into the safer zones. This mass migration will be fraught with challenges that will require profound international cooperation at unprecedented levels. This ongoing year-by-year migration will, by necessity and urgency, become the greatest migration in human history.

Without question, this "Great Global Migration" needs to begin now! If we wait until it's too late, there will be panic, chaos, and severe local, regional, and national conflicts, if not all-out international war, as the remaining trapped populations and any lottery losers desperately try by any means possible to migrate far north or far south.

People will eventually realize that what is happening today is not random, lousy weather. They will finally see our worsening climate as an increasing pattern of storms and other extreme weather consequences regularly increasing in frequency, severity, and scale that has not been seen for thousands of years, if ever. Once they realize this, many more will migrate because they finally realize "it is migrate or die."

By about 2029, we estimate that at least 2-5% of the world's population will have figured out that the wild climate fluctuations and seasonal extremes they are witnessing are not random or freak occurrences. They will have figured out that the climate is destabilizing steadily and rapidly. They, too, will realize the climate catastrophes we are already experiencing are showing a clear pattern of ever-increasing severity, frequency, and scale (the size of the area they are covering). 

Once these hundreds of millions of people realize they need to get out soon or get caught in the suffering, chaos, and death of crashing and soaring real estate, economies, and market prices (depending upon which area you're leaving or moving to,) they will migrate, and they will migrate desperate and fast! 

Once these hundreds of millions migrate, others will see and hear about it. Then those people will begin migrating so they do not get caught with no place to move to or too few resources left to get there.

To avoid the potential chaos of the Great Global Migration not well managed by cooperating world governments, our governments need to act NOW and not ten years from now. 

As part of necessary climate justice, those nations which have caused the most fossil fuel burning atmospheric pollution and damage, which has caused global warming, must also take in the most climate migrants to the highest level that farming in that nation will support. 

Lastly, to make the new migration lottery system work effectively, individuals already living near or above the 45th parallel north or near or above the 45th parallel south cannot and should not be removed to make room for new climagees. This existing resident removal strategy would only cause more conflict, delay, and confusion, further complicating an already massively complex undertaking.

 

Action Step 2: Pass new laws to prevent all unfair profiteering by any individual, corporation, or nation seeking to exploit the extinction emergency or the mass migrations to safer areas. It is critical to set severe penalties and to remove all profit from any entity charging more than the reasonable pre-emergency prices for food, global warming safer lands, or anything else. 

 

Actions Step 3: Moving critical infrastructure also includes moving the world's artistic, architectural, and cultural heritage from unsafe global warming zones to safer zones for preservation. The best of our art, architecture, and cultures also makes us human. These things contain critical elements of our history and who we are that will help keep us sane while going through this catastrophe.

 

Action Step 4: Move all needed global plant and animal diversity into the safest remaining areas.

Many needed plants and animals will be unable to migrate on their own in time to avoid extinction. Almost in Noah's ark fashion, our governments must begin cataloging and making provisions to get all needed global plants and animals into the safer areas where they can survive and may be required.

 

Action Step 5: Educate and incentivize the citizens of every nation to begin their emergency preparations and backup plans. To be successful in saving the future, it is not only governments that must start acting in this area. Simultaneously, every citizen also needs to be responsible for themselves and become a part of the greatest mobilization of resources and people in human history. It is unlikely any government will have enough resources to protect all of its citizens. That is why you must begin your own Plan B preparations and planning. (The Job One plan has specific steps to help you do this. Click here to begin this section.)

 

Action Step 6: We must ensure that ALL nuclear reactors, nuclear and biological weapons, and toxic chemical manufacturing sites within all unsafe global warming zones are secured.

Secured means that all remaining more stable governments have an adequately resourced and ready backup plan to manage these contingencies as the less stable governments and economies collapse in the unsafe zones. 

As global warming worsens inside the global warming unsafe zones, the political systems and nations will destabilize, and most of them will collapse. Once those political systems collapse, there will no longer be stable and organized procedures, staffing, or resources for ensuring that:

1. any nuclear reactors within those areas do not meltdown and go critical or that, 

2. nuclear or biological weapons within those areas are not stolen or triggered or that, 

3. toxic chemical manufacturing sites within those areas do not leak.

If any of this happened, it would not only threaten the survival of that particular area, region, or the nations within that unsafe zone but also the whole world's survival. 

Take a moment to imagine the hundreds of nuclear reactors in the global warming unsafe zones becoming new Chernobyls and Fukagimas one after another. There would be no place on earth nor any bunker that would keep you safe from this massive amount of radiation circling the planet for decades to hundreds to thousands of years. 

Now take a moment to imagine all of the biological and chemical weapons and toxic chemical manufacturing sites in the unsafe global warming zones becoming compromised and leaking their slow and painful death out into the world. Surviving this would be a living hell and nearly impossible.

The preceding worst-case nuclear, biological, and chemical catastrophe will likely happen if the nations of the world do not preemptively cooperate in this additional emergency preparation area. The world's nations need to realize that our escalating climate change emergency is a no-win game unless they collaborate and make the best possible decisions to preserve the human species and our civilization.

If the governments of the world do not thoroughly do this action step two, there is no rational or reasonable hope that even the smallest part of the human race will survive to save civilization and repopulate the earth within the global warming safer zones. 

 

Action Step 7: Each government must create multiple archives containing all human knowledge needed for the post-collapse and post-dark age periods. These multiple archives must survive the post-collapse and probable new dark ages for decades to centuries.

These archives will be essential to the survivors for rebuilding the world. The hope is that when survivors rebuild, they will use the archived knowledge and the many painful lessons of the great extinction and collapse to create a Great Global Rebirth.

Governments must also begin planning how to make the post-collapse dark ages as short as possible. The longer the post-collapse dark age period lasts, the lower the probability much of humanity will survive it. The longer the new dark age lasts, the likelihood of this tragedy empowering the Great Global Rebirth also diminishes radically. 

 

Action Step 8: While the governments of the world are doing all of the action steps in 1-6 above, it is critically important that they also engage in the radical fossil fuel reduction action steps described in Part 3 of the Job One Plan. These additional steps are absolutely essential to slow down global warming enough so we still have adequate time left to prepare, adapt, and migrate so at least some of humanity will survive.

Never forget that getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets is our last best chance to prevent reaching the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point. Unfortunately, it is highly probable that we will cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction-level tipping point.

(Please see this page if you have doubts about why it is highly unlikely that we will reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. This page will also help explain why our world leaders must enact this governmental-level emergency backup Plan B while passing the other action steps listed here in the Job One Plan.) 

 

Action Step 9: As soon as possible, our governments must honestly inform their citizens that the climate consequence-driven extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century is now unavoidable. 

They must honestly let their citizens know that we must now make great sacrifices to save the other half of humanity because of their own six decades of inaction or ineffective climate action. Unless the public understands what has happened and why they may be unwilling to make the necessary sacrifices to save the younger generations. 

To inform their citizens thoroughly and adequately, our politicians must now tell them about the ten most important facts about our climate and runaway global heating condition. 

Giving the public this horrible news will also allow them more time to prepare physically, emotionally, and spiritually as best as possible. If done correctly and soon, it should help prevent public panic and inspire a new level of global cooperation to save the younger X, Y, Z, and A generations.

Additionally, any politician who failed to effectively cut fossil fuel subsidies over the last six decades or order the correct critical fossil fuel reductions must voluntarily exclude and bar themselves (and their families) from any climate migration or enhanced safety program benefit in any global heating safer area. This justice-inspired benefit restriction is because these politicians are the most responsible for failing to do their jobs concerning the decades-long escalation of the climate and global heating extinction threat. And finally,

 

Action Step 10: Our governments must also convince the older generations to help finance the younger generations getting prepared or migrating and rebuilding in new, safer locations.

It is the right thing to do for those generations who have not had as much time to live as the older generations. It is also the right thing to do because the older generations have a greater responsibility for restitution. This greater restitution and climate justice responsibility is valid because, despite six decades of valid scientific warnings, they allowed the runaway global heating extinction emergency to occur on their watch. 

 

Action Step 11: As a crucial part of the governmental Plan B, all major fossil fuel-polluting nations must begin to educate their citizens about their obligations under the principles of climate justice. They must thoroughly educate their citizens about the sacrifices that most nations in global warming safer zones will have to make because of climate justice factors. 

It is climate justice for the nations that have created the most fossil fuel pollution (mostly the northern and developed countries) to take in the desperate victims of their fossil fuel pollution acts (mainly refugees from the southern and under-developed countries.) However, unless global warming safer nations actively begin this climate justice educational process today, there will be tremendous turmoil and conflict. This conflict will occur as hundreds of millions (to billions) of "migrate or die" climate refugees mass migrate out of the global warming high-risk southern areas into safer northern regions and nations.

 

Action Step 11: Humanity must simultaneously work to discover:

a.)  ALL of the major and even the deepest causes of the climate change extinction emergency and then,

b.) begin fixing every cause of the climate change emergency to prevent such a global catastrophe from ever occurring again.

Click here to the 30 major direct and indirect causes of the climate change extinction emergency.

Click Here for the deepest direct and indirect causes of the climate change extinction emergency.

 

Action Step 12: Humanity must learn to live in a new sustainable relationship with Earth's existing resources and ecosystems.

A smaller humanity will need to learn how to live with far less so those who survive may thrive again.

Click here for more information on how to live more sustainably.

Click here for all of the benefits of making the governmental Plan B work.

 

“I have canceled my plans to have a family because I am so concerned about the future of the planet.” Jordan Druthers

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Our runaway global heating emergency will have horrible consequences. These consequences are so bad there is no need to exaggerate them. 

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There is really just one climate fact that everyone should know. It is the new "elevator pitch" of the climate change and runaway global heating education movement.

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Once you have read this page, you will understand our current climate condition, the global heating emergency, and this website's most critical message. You also will have a climate summary understanding similar to a climate researcher.

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We are opening our blog to other researchers and other authors with articles aligned with our mission that will help educate, inspire or trigger deeper reflection. This article is the first of our guest blog articles in many years. (Blog Editor)

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Thank you for signing up for the free support for the Job One for Humanity PLAN B. This support sign-up step is critical if you want the best chance of success with the PLAN B actions. Extensive research has shown that having support for completing a task can be up to 90% of the reason why that task was completed successfully.

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Thank you for signing up for the free Job One Plan support. This support sign-up step is critical if you want the best chance of success with the Part 1 actions. Extensive research has shown that having support for completing a task can be up to 90% of the reason why that task was completed successfully.

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Last updated 8.21.24. 

The climate facts below are not for individuals under 16 years old. These serious adult matters and climate problems are far too upsetting and complex for children under 16 to understand or deal with in healthy or rational ways.

Prologue

Our politicians and governments have completely failed to manage the well-researched climate change emergency over the last 60 years. Their 60-year failure and the climate change nightmare they have left us are nearly out of our control, with many of climate change's worst consequences no longer avoidable.

The following page helps explain why about half of humanity will perish by about 2050. When you read it, please remember that the climate change consequences described below are not only destructive by themselves.

Most climate change consequences described below will also interact with and amplify other interconnected climate change consequence areas. Then, these interacting secondary climate change areas will also experience amplification of their related climate change consequences. This is the scary escalating feedback cycle of climate change consequences interacting and amplifying each other. This interaction and amplification feedback cycle is one of the most unseen, unrecognized, and dangerous parts of our climate change nightmare and emergency.

Overview

Most people who hear our governments talking about reaching fossil fuel reduction targets between 2040-2060 have no idea if we fail to come close to the required 2025 global fossil fuel reductions over the next 3 to 8 years (from 2025-2031); humanity is royally screwed! But what does that really mean?

If we fail once again and miss the correct, uncensored, and up-politicized 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by a lot, we will suffer:

1. An unavoidable extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century driven solely by the many climate change-related primary and secondary consequences. (The article below describes how and why this will happen.)

2. We will bring about phase 2 of a much worse irreversible runaway global warming that will be irreversible. And, if we enter phase 2 of irreversible runaway global warming, we will face a near-certain near-total human extinction threat by about 2070-2080. 

Irreversible climate change means that we will not be able to get the dangerous levels of excess greenhouse gases (like carbon) out of our atmosphere and back down to a normal and human-safe pre-industrial level for hundreds to thousands of years. (As of July 2023, We are currently at the insane atmospheric carbon level of 420 ppm. We will soon enter the generally considered irreversible and second phase of runaway global heating sometime between 2025-2031. This is when we enter into the carbon 425-450 ppm range.)

There is also a credible possibility that if we do not come close to the required 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, we also could theoretically face not only a highly probable near-total extinction but also a potential, but not likely total human extinction event. Few people understand that there is already so much global heating momentum inside the climate system from the synergetic and cumulative effects of polluting our atmosphere with carbon from burning fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution that unless humanity radically and immediately reduces global fossil fuels by about 75%, the 2025 targets, there is no way to stop the two items above rapidly and uncontrollably occurring. 

But why must we act within this 3-8 year last window of opportunity to fix the climate change emergency? Even fewer people understand this survival critical climate change "window of remaining opportunity" information. 

The key reasons that we are almost out of time to prevent the mass and near-total human extinction are as follows:

1. James Hansen, a former NASA climate scientist, said that humanity should be safe if we stayed below an atmospheric carbon level of 350 parts per million (ppm). However, he also said that if we go beyond an atmospheric carbon level of about 386 ppm, we will enter into a state of runaway global heating. If you imagined runaway global heating like a train without brakes rolling down a mountain, which is getting steeper and steeper, you would have a good idea about what we face with the runaway unstoppable and ever-rising temperatures of runaway global heating.

James Hansen also said that if we crossed the carbon 386 ppm threshold, critical climate change tipping points and climate-positive feedback loops would start "stacking." These tipping points and feedback loops would rapidly be continually crossed like falling dominoes. Crossing additional climate tipping points or climate-positive feedback loops is a self-feeding, self-reinforcing, and self-sustaining process! In other words, because of the climate tipping points and feedback loops, runaway global heating would become irreversible in the most practical meaning of the word.

 

2. Accordingly, we ensure an ever-continuing global temperature rise if we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm level. Just the carbon 425-450 ppm level by itself would eventually lock in a total increase in average global temperature of about 2 -2.7° Celsius (4° - 4.9° Fahrenheit) from preindustrial levels. 

Once we cross the 2° plus Celsius (the carbon 425-450 ppm level,) the widespread extinction-accelerating temperature levels of 3°, 4°, 5°, and even 6° Celsius will also be all but locked in! (According to James Hansen, a carbon 450 ppm level would eventually develop into an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century and be the end of human civilization as we've come to know it and near-total human extinction.)

As you can see below, as of June 2022, we were at the hazardous carbon level of 421 ppm. We are currently not far from entering the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold where climate change hell breaks loose and for all practical intents and purposes, we lose control of our climate future for many, many decades to centuries. 

 

 

 

3. Once we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold level, we also begin triggering many additional climate tipping points and amplifying climate feedback loops at even faster rates! These tipping points and feedback loops will also cause the many primary and secondary consequences of climate change to increase in severity and frequency radically, and they will occur over larger and larger areas.

4. Unfortunately, we have passed phase one of runaway global heating. We are about to enter phase two of runaway global heating. When we enter phase three of runaway global heating (after about 2031,) the primary and secondary climate change consequences will begin to rise exponentially.  

5. Once we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold level, runaway global heating becomes all but irreversible for centuries. Only the proven processes of nature over vast amounts of time will be able to slowly reverse the atmospheric carbon pollution and the other consequences of runaway global heating after all of the other key sources of runaway global heating are eliminated.

 

What does it mean in terms of your future?

Beginning about 2025-2031, the severity, frequency, and scale of current climate change consequences will rise radically. These rising consequences include heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, flooding, rain bombs, Derechos, extreme wind, dust, wildfire smoke storms, unseasonable and sudden cold spells, and wet areas will become wetter and dry areas dryer.

This increase in climate consequence severity, frequency, and scale is because we have already crossed into the second phase of irreversible runaway global heating. Because climate change consequences will soon begin rising radically, you may have only another 3-8 more years of relative climate change stability, depending upon where you live. 

Climate consequences will then soon accelerate exponentially near the end of the 2025-2031 period because more critical climate change tipping points and feedback loops will be crossed and triggered! Saying we have only three to, at best, eight more years left to control climate change and global heating does not mean that humanity will go extinct in 3-8 years! It only means that if we do not do what is necessary to radically reduce global fossil fuel use over the next 3 to 8 years to meet the 2025 global targets:

1. many more climate change consequences will begin at vastly higher levels of severity, frequency, and scale. (They will increase exponentially.) And

2. humanity will face many more unavoidable cataclysmic climate change consequences (such as about half of humanity going extinct by mid-century.) 

One could easily consider the whole page below an excellent expanded definition of runaway global heating. Please also note that what you are about to read below falls within the definition of Abrupt Climate Change. The two most common definitions of Abrupt Climate Change are:

• In terms of impacts, "an abrupt change is one that takes place so rapidly and unexpectedly that human or natural systems have difficulty adapting to it."
• In terms of physics, it is a transition of the climate system into a different mode on a time scale that is faster than the responsible forcing.

 

 

What your governments do not want you to know about the accelerating climate change and the runaway global heating emergency

To put the climate danger we are in over the next 3-to 8 years (2025-2031) in the proper perspective, it is vital to be aware that atmospheric carbon was at about carbon 270 parts per million (ppm) for hundreds of thousands of years prior to the Industrial revolution. At carbon 270 ppm, there was climate stability. (See Atmospheric CO2 carbon graph above.)

James Hansen calculated that only if we kept atmospheric carbon below the carbon 350 ppm level, we would avoid the worse consequences of climate change, global warming, and mass extinction. What follows are the many details on how and why not crossing the carbon 425-450 ppm level is so critical to our future survival. 

Most people do not understand that getting close to the extinction-preventing 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets will keep us from crossing the extinction-accelerating carbon 425-450 ppm threshold. Nor do they understand the physics and mechanics behind the laws of climate momentum and human inertia.

The difficult news

Our current climate momentum factors mean that even if we stopped ALL global burning of fossil fuels today, global temperatures would continue rising for the next 2-3 (or more) decades. Furthermore, it also means that the radical 2025 global fossil fuel reductions we must make immediately will not deliver significant and observable benefits to the average citizen for about 2-3 decades. Finally, if we ever do make the needed fossil fuel reductions, this climate momentum time lag will challenge the patience and understanding of most everyone, not just our politicians. 

 

 

 

The graph above beautifully illustrates an exponential rise in the three critical atmospheric greenhouse gases expressed in parts per billion. Since the mid-1700s and the start of the Industrial Revolution, these gases have been mostly human-made from burning fossil fuels. As a result, each of these greenhouse gases has built up considerable atmospheric heat-increasing momentum! (Click here if you need to learn more about our 60 years of failed global fossil fuel reductions.)

We only have until about 2025 to 2031 to maintain control of our global warming future. This short time is because we will cross new dangerous climate tipping points as we pass through the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold. The following sections will explain the climate science behind why.

The climate cliff, beginning runaway global warming and complete runaway global warming

For a little bit, we must talk about the concept of the climate cliff and what it is before we detail the first extinction-producing tipping point, which is when we cross the carbon 425-450 threshold. Our organization had previously called this carbon 425-450 ppm level the climate cliff for years. (In this article, you will also hear us call the carbon 425-450 ppm level our first extinction-triggering or producing tipping point.)

The original climate cliff 425-450 ppm level was based on the United Nations' decades-long-held target of keeping the average global temperature rising no more than 2°C above preindustrial levels. Recently, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) lowered its temperature target level based on realizing the consequences of a 2° C temperature increase above preindustrial levels would be far worse than the original research indicated.

The UN's new climate cliff level of 2020 is now to stay below an average global temperature increase of 1.5C. This target level has changed because global warming consequences above this temperature are now known to be much worse than previously believed.

One of the other significant reasons now being acknowledged among recognized climate scientists for the new UN 1.5 C climate cliff temperature target level is that there are already considerably more atmospheric carbon emissions than was previously predicted. These additional carbon emissions come from other amplifying carbon feedback loops and carbon sink failures.

Many of these further amplifying carbon feedback loops and carbon sink issues will start to show up just beyond a 1.5C average global temperature increase as soon as 2025. (These amplifying carbon feedbacks and carbon sink failures will be described in detail further below.)

Newer research also shows that staying at or near a 1.5 C of average global temperature increase level is the only temperature level that entirely excludes the beginning phase one level of runaway global warming and continuing to cross additional extinction-triggering global warming tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops.

There are five phases of runaway global warming: the beginning level, the irreversible and extinction levels, and the Venus effect level. 

The Phase one level of runaway global warming is defined as the point where numerous climate change and global warming consequences become catastrophic and unavoidable! For example, the UN's new 1.5 C climate cliff temperature threshold now means that because of what just the beginning level of runaway global warming can do, going above 1.5 C level will eventually lead to the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. (This link will show you how this mass extinction event will happen.)

Phase two irreversible and extinction level runaway global warming is the level of runaway global warming that will ensure humanity's near-total extinction. Phase five Venus-level runaway global warming will be so bad that it rips the atmosphere off our planet. As a result, the Earth will lose all human and biological life. This level of runaway global warming is believed to have happened to the planet Venus.

In our own internal 2016-17 climate analysis, using existing fossil fuel infrastructure, we calculated the first climate cliff for triggering beginning level runaway global warming (an unstoppable crossing of more amplifying global warming tipping points) would occur between the carbon 425 to carbon 450 ppm levels. These levels of atmospheric carbon would eventually create at least, a global 2C - 2.7C temperature increase over preindustrial levels. 

Because of the UN IPCC threshold level of 1.5C, the beginning temperature and carbon limits for our former carbon climate cliff level now needed to be updated from its previous carbon level (425-450 ppm) and previous temperature level of about 2 -2.7° C above preindustrial levels to the new 1.5 C climate cliff starting point (about carbon 386.)

The new climate Cliff Shocker

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has previously calculated that reaching the carbon 420 ppm level is equivalent to a 1.6 C average global temperature increase from preindustrial levels. They made this very low-temperature rise calculation without including crossing any of the many climate tipping points or amplifying carbon feedback loops. But, as you will soon discover, we have already crossed important climate tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops and will quickly cross many more. (Our calculations making reasonable allowances and adjustments for crossed tipping points and omitted amplifying carbon feedback loops show the temperatures will rise much higher than the UN's 1.6 C temperature calculations.)

To have stayed below a 1.5 C target temperature increase, we would have had to have kept our atmospheric carbon level below 386 ppm. But, around 2015, we already had crossed over 386 carbon ppm level and ensured we would hit the 1.5 C level. 

The good news is we can still slow down the extinction of half of humanity by mid-century if we come close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. All we can do now is slow and delay our partial extinction. But, it will take a government-driven mass mobilization to do it. This government-driven mass mobilization would have to radically reduce global fossil fuel use and get very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as its first action. 

If the world governments act immediately and get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, more people will live longer and more comfortably. And, maybe we can still save humanity from the only thing that is worse than the extinction of half or more of humanity by mid-century, humanity's near-total extinction occurring from about 2050-2080 or sooner. 

And, there is a bit more bad news. Acting only to minimize the current global warming extinction threat is insane! It is insane because any temperature increase of 1.5 C will also trigger the crossing of three more extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops.

If nothing is done by our governments to radically slow and then reverse the average global temperature increase above the 1.5 C level, near-total extinction will be our eventual future. Supporting this 1.5 C danger is the Siberia permafrost field research (rather than the currently less accurate computer modeling) by Anton Vaks. (Reversing climate change means we need to get back down to at least carbon 350 ppm for some stability and hopefully eventually back down to carbon 270 ppm where both humans and nature flourished.)

This Siberian research puts a global permafrost "thaw-down" also beginning at 1.5 C. This Siberian research means that when the world's permafrost crosses this 1.5 C average global temperature increase tipping point, the world's permafrost begins a near-continuous meltdown. Furthermore, this research indicates that after we reach this 1.5 C average global temperature increase, all permafrost stored carbon and methane will eventually be released from the permafrost. 

This 1.5C permafrost release point plus other human-made carbon and methane releases put us squarely on the fast track for the worst global warming prediction scenarios. (Click here for more documentation on the permafrost meltdown.)

Our ticking permafrost methane time bomb is further illuminated by the rising atmospheric methane CH4 graph below. When viewing this methane graph, consider that atmospheric methane is about 80 times more effective than atmospheric carbon in increasing global warming. (The atmospheric methane graph below is in parts per billion [ppb].) 

 

(Please Note: It is perfectly normal to reject or doubt the possibility of such large-scale extinction occurring so soon. Therefore, we strongly recommend at some point clicking here to see the detailed sequences of some 80 primary and secondary consequences that will bring about the extinction of about half of humanity.)

It is vital to know how having already crossed the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff will further accelerate the crossing of more global warming tipping points and amplify carbon feedback loops

The new carbon 386 ppm tipping point level was our last chance climate cliff because it was our last window of opportunity to keep from crossing the next critical atmospheric carbon threshold, which, when crossed, will significantly accelerate crossing more global warming tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops. Once we go over this 386 ppm climate cliff, our average global temperature will inevitably rise considerably above 1.5C - 2°C (eventually possibly as much as 3.2 C in eventual equilibrium warming. Equilibrium warming is known as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS.) it is the long-term temperature rise (equilibrium global mean near-surface air temperature) that is expected to result from a doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration.)

Moreover, this temperature rise will be far faster than has ever occurred over previous human-friendly geologically-scaled periods. This means that what used to happen over millennia or centuries within our climate systems will now occur over decades!

Unfortunately, rapidly rising global temperatures are not the worst effect of crossing the carbon 386 ppm level and climate cliff. These fast temperature rises will also create a decisive additional climate momentum factor in addition to the already existing atmospheric carbon momentum. This further climate-related momentum will not only push our global temperature even higher even faster, but it will also force many of the 11 climate tipping points below and more tipping points within the climate's subsystems to be crossed much faster! 

(The illustration below lists the 11 major global warming tipping points. The arrows between the tipping points indicate that these tipping points interact and can also trigger each other's system or subsystem tipping points. Global warming temperatures will soar faster and faster as we cross more climate tipping points, which will cross even more climate and human system tipping points in an endless feedback loop.) 

 

 

(At some point, to learn more about tipping point effects, we strongly recommend that you click here to learn more details about each tipping point above and how they will unfold to bring us closer to near-total extinction. This additional tipping point meltdown page covers what happens when you cross the above tipping points, how they accelerate the global warming temperature rise, consequences, and how they will cause sudden and complete climate, biological and human system collapses if left unchecked. Crossing these climate tipping points will also make any possible recovery from crossing these tipping points either impossible or much slower, more complicated, and more expensive. This expanded tipping point reading will help you "see" the tremendous and dangerous impact that the many additional and soon-arriving crossed global warming tipping points will have on your future.)

What to expect in rising temperatures now that we have crossed the carbon 386 climate cliff into runaway global warming and heading toward the first extinction-triggering tipping point

Since we have already passed the carbon 386 ppm level back around 2015, within about five years (around 2025 or less), we can expect to lock in an eventual total minimal increase in average global temperature of about 1.5 C. 

Next, we cross the carbon 425 ppm phase two level of irreversible runaway global heating by or before about 2025. We can expect to lock in an additional eventual total increase in average global temperature of about 2 -2.7° Celsius (4° - 4.9° Fahrenheit) from preindustrial levels. 

The distinguished Professor of Meteorology Michael Mann from the University of Pennsylvania recently stated that once we reach the atmospheric carbon 405 ppm level, a 2 degrees C average global temperature increase is already baked in! And, once that happens, the terrible news is that we can do nothing effective at this point to stop those temperature levels from rising for many more decades. 

At this 1.5 -2.7° Celsius increased average global temperature level, hundreds of millions will eventually starve, and hundreds of millions of people worldwide will eventually be forced to migrate or die. 

Once we went over the new climate cliff of carbon 386 ppm, we doomed ourselves to hit the 1.5 Celsius global temperature increase level. Furthermore, we were also condemned by the total heat-producing momentum of all of the previous carbon and other greenhouse gases that we have ever put into the atmosphere, along with the other factors mentioned further down this page. All of these will inevitably and quickly not only push our global temperature even higher but also trigger the crossing of ever more tipping points at an accelerating rate!

Because we have already gone over the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff and triggered this next level of accelerating climate tipping point crossings, we are now locked into continually increasing temperatures for as much as the next 30+ years and crossing even more dangerous tipping points! 

We will reach our next even more dangerous transitional carbon and temperature threshold when we cross the carbon 425-450 carbon ppm tipping point level. This is the extinction-triggering threshold where, because of crossing even more future global warming tipping points being crossed at an accelerating rate, we will be unable to stop ourselves from proceeding uncontrollably to average global temperature increases of 3°, 4°, 5°, and 6° Celsius (5.4°, 7.2°, 9°, and 10.8° Fahrenheit respectively.) 

Once we cross the 2° Celsius (the carbon 425-450 ppm level,) the higher mass extinction accelerating temperature levels of 3°, 4°, 5°, and even 6° Celsius will be all but locked in! 

According to James Hansen, one of the world's most influential climate researchers, a carbon 450 ppm level would eventually develop into an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century and be the end of human civilization as we've come to know it. 

At this point, because of the many probable temperatures being discussed, it is crucial to explain the global warming temperature-fed feedback loop. The hotter it gets, the more it amplifies and drives more intense global warming consequences, crossing more climate change tipping points and triggering more amplifying climate feedback loops. Then, these more intense global warming consequences, additional crossed climate tipping points, and additional triggered amplifying climate feedback loops cause the temperature to rise even higher, which starts the cycle all over again. The bad news is that once this cycle gets going, it goes faster and faster, like a train with no breaks running down a hill. That's more details about why they call it runaway global warming.

The uncontrollable continuous rise in average global temperature, which will cause mass starvation, death, and migration, will be due primarily to:

1. the major global warming consequences will continue to intensify and cross-react as heat rises. 

The following illustration will help you visualize how future global warming consequences will intensify separately and together as we cross more tipping points and global temperatures rise. Imagine all of these global warming consequences whirling around, colliding with, and amplifying each other because of the agitation and "boiling effect" of ever-rising heat. This motion is similar to how the rising heat under a steam cooker churns, whirls, and collides with the boiling water inside the steam cooker faster and more violently. 

 

 

As increasing heat boils our planet, just like boiling water in a pot, the above global warming consequences will intensify and increase in severity, frequency, and scale! (To learn about exactly how the escalating 20 worst global warming consequences will cause mass starvation, death, and migration as well as social, economic, and political chaos, click here.)

2. more global warming consequences (listed above) will go into positive feedback loops as temperatures rise. Think of a positive feedback loop as a small stimulus that then amplifies a specific effect or consequence, causing it to get bigger and bigger. For example, if you hold a microphone too close to a music amplifier, there will be an irritating scratchy distortion of sound that "feeds back" to the amplifier, getting louder and louder the longer the microphone is held closer and closer to the amplifier source. 

3. our being unable to stop ourselves from crossing more global warming tipping points. Crossing more tipping points will again trigger other positive feedback loops and points of no return within the systems and subsystems of the global climate. It will also cause global warming tipping points to interact with each other cumulatively.

4. our continuing to cross "points of no return" within the global warming tipping points processes. Tipping point processes have within them definite points of no return. Once a tipping point's point of no return is crossed, crossing that tipping point is all but inevitable. Once that occurs, things usually collapse quickly, and recovery is typically slow, complex, costly, or downright impossible.

 

 

5. the accelerating heat-producing carbon and other greenhouse gas momentum (we will continue to add more fossil fuel-burning carbon to the atmosphere every additional year (currently at the rate of about three carbon ppm per year.)

6. profound human system inertia and numerous other human system maladaptation factors will make it difficult to fix this extinction emergency or recover from it. (Described in detail on this page.)

Because of the preceding, we have no other rational alternative than to prevent crossing into the hazardous transitional carbon 425-450 ppm threshold range and tipping point. At our current carbon and other greenhouse gas atmospheric pollution rate, entering this range will, unfortunately, begin sometime around 2025 if we do not get very close to the correct and honest 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets.

There is something we can always be sure of in this horrible emergency. No matter what and despite all of the challenges and painful tipping point outcomes that are coming, the single constant truth for the best possible climate outcome for humanity in this emergency is that the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use:

a. the more people we will survive to carry on humanity, life, and our beautiful civilization, and

b. future generations will suffer less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences.

In the illustration below, you will see a red vertical line, the "Must never pass, last chance battle line and range of carbon 425 to 450 ppm." As you can see, going over the carbon 425 ppm leads us to a very steep downward darker red slope toward our rapid extinction. (The illustration below also shows at what carbon ppm levels the six distinct phases of a Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown will occur (i.e., CS Phases 1-6 below.) After you complete the rest of this document, we strongly recommend that you review the detailed year-by-year global warming consequence timetables found in the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown. (As a reminder, the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown will be linked again at the bottom of this page.)

 

 

 

In summary of the first extinction-triggering tipping point, here is what is most important to remember about a failure to get close to our 2025 reduction targets and going over the carbon 425-450 ppm extinction-triggering tipping point:

1. Once we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, the frequency, severity, and scale of global warming consequences will go from gradual linear increases as they are now to exponential consequence increases! This exponential consequence explosion will begin within 3-9 years (2025-2031) as we cross this critical extinction-producing tipping point.

Once again, please see the most current blue Atmospheric CO2 carbon graph (on this page) to see how dangerously close we are to this critical carbon 425 - 450 ppm tipping point already. (As of April of 2022, we are at carbon 421 ppm.)

2. After we also go over the carbon 425-450 ppm range, mass human extinction is assured and unavoidable. The mathematics and physics of atmospheric carbon and other greenhouse gases raising our temperature will climb exponentially after going over the carbon 425-450 ppm level. This additional greenhouse gas rise will drive our temperatures ever higher up to and through at least two more extinction-accelerating tipping points and into the many other global warming consequences described further below. 

3. After we cross the 425-450 ppm threshold, stopping this ever-increasing global warming temperature momentum will be like trying to stop a gigantic boulder from rolling faster and faster down a hill that keeps getting steeper and steeper. 

4. We are in an unacknowledged climate change extinction emergency, and so far, our governments are not even close to reaching the critical 2025 targets. 

5. If we do not come close to the 2025 targets, we lose our last chance to stop ourselves from going over additional and far worse global warming tipping points. These extra tipping points will cause near-total to total human extinction and economic, political, and social chaos within our lifetimes!

If we do not come close to the 2025 targets, our final window of opportunity to effectively control our destiny regarding preventing the other two near-total extinction-accelerating tipping points from being crossed closes. This unthinkable outcome is also why the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point level is our most crucial next tipping point to understand and respect. (More about what causes this near-complete loss of control of our global warming future will be explained in the following even worse climate tipping point sections below.)

6. The beginning levels of runaway global warming were initiated when we went over the climate cliff and crossed carbon 386 ppm in 2015. We will fully enter the near-total extinction level of runaway global warming and climate change when we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold. This is the carbon level where we can no longer stop ourselves from crossing a cascade of more significant climate tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops.

7. Mass human extinction will accelerate as we cross the 3° C level and pass beyond it.  Once we cross the 2° Celsius (the carbon 425-450 ppm level,) the inevitable mass extinction accelerating temperature levels of 3°, 4°, 5°, and even 6° Celsius will be all but locked in! 

At 4° C, life will be a living hell for survivors. Crossing the carbon 450 ppm level will eventually develop into an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) well before the end of this century and be the end of human civilization as we've come to know it.  

8. In case you have been tricked by massive fossil fuel industry propaganda campaigns and still believe some "new technology" will save us just in time. Get over that fairy tale. 

We have only 3-8 years left to get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets or lose control of our climate change future. But, unfortunately, no new carbon removal technologies (or what we at Job One for Humanity call the magical carbon-sucking unicorns) will be able to save us in time.

Once we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, we will cross so many additional climate tipping points and trigger so many climate change feedback loops that carbon and methane levels in the atmosphere will start to skyrocket far, far beyond where they are now. Carbon and methane released from the tundra, permafrost, and forests are growing fast. Soon, the oceans and soils will also start releasing massive amounts of carbon at levels no "new technology" will be able to keep up with or reverse for centuries.

The highly-touted fossil fuel industry's heavily lobbied carbon removal technology fails because even those who believe this technology might save us are projecting that it will not be scaled up enough to make a significant difference until sometime after 2050. Unfortunately, this 2050 date is long after irreversible climate damage has been done, and long after, anything can be done for billions who will suffer and die! 

(Please click here if you still have any illusions about new and heavily promoted carbon removal technology miraculously saving us at the last minute. The science and math there will help you understand that the only way out of this imminent extinction catastrophe is to radically reduce global  fossil fuel use globally to come very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.)

Additionally, it is not just carbon capture "new technologies" that are unworkable when one confronts the honest global fossil fuel reduction deadlines we now face and their many primary and secondary consequences. No miracle "new technology" (like solar screening, geo-engineering, etc.) currently exists at the needed scale or cost efficiency capable of saving humanity from our accelerating global heating nightmare before about half of humanity is dead. No "new technology will magically get us to close to painful 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets in time.

The widely promised miracle "new technologies" that will save us from climate extinction are fossil fuel industry-supported illusions and false solutions. They intentionally act to hide the absolute urgency of the runaway global heating emergency and the fossil fuel profit-killing reality that we must radically reduce global fossil fuels use now!

Worse yet:

1. None of the current miracle "new technology" climate solutions can come even close to globally scaling up in time to compensate for our significantly missing the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. 

2. Most have not yet been proven to work (even at a small scale.)

3. All have not been adequately tested at a sufficiently large enough scale for unintended side effects. Any unknown and unintended side effects could create even more significant problems than the problems they were designed to solve.

4. They all appear to be prohibitively costly and financially unsustainable.

5. Many burn so much fossil fuel trying to remove atmospheric carbon or geo-engineer the planet or atmosphere that their massive fossil fuel use eliminates their benefits. Additionally, massive amounts of energy will be needed to process the required raw materials and fabricate the solutions to implement the new technologies. To do this quickly, existing methods must provide the energy, which would further delay reaching global fossil fuel reduction goals. And finally. And worst of all,

6. These miracle "new technologies" falsely promise that we can continue our lives of over-consuming, overpopulating, polluting, and burning fossil fuels exactly as we are now or with little painless change. Nothing could be further from the truth if we want to survive.

Furthermore, society is ignoring that we are reaching limits to the availability of many natural resources. To build these proposed new technologies, vital materials will be required in such tremendous amounts that routine daily needs would be severely impacted.

 

 

Possibly after 2050, some new technology will be tested, safe and deployable at scale and reasonable costs to contribute in some minor way to restoring our climate stability. But none of these new technologies can replace the urgent, immediate requirement to radically reduce all global fossil fuel use to get close to the correct and honest 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.

Hoping for some "new technology" to be discovered at the last minute to miraculously save us is a horrible personal, corporate, or national strategy dooming us to fail ourselves into extinction and chaos.

9. The only effective way to prevent our near-total extinction from the primary and secondary consequences of climate change is to get as close to the correct and honest 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.

 

Discover amazing information, tools, alerts, and promotional benefits for becoming a Job One for Humanity climate change think tank donor/supporter/member by clicking here!

 

Additional thoughts on the critical importance of the carbon 425-450 ppm near-total extinction-triggering tipping point and the probable sequences of climate events as we approach and cross it

Because we have ignored decades of climate warming, we are already deep into the climate change trajectory toward extinction and the collapse of civilization. This collapse outcome is highly likely because nine of the known global warming and climate change tipping points that regulate the climatic state of the planet have already been activated.

 

From the above illustration, please read more about one dangerous glacier collapse in particular. It is genuinely critical. Click here to read about the many severe consequences of the Thwaites "doomsday glacier."  It will describe in detail the next major global climate catastrophe, which will significantly affect most of your future personal and business plans.

Here is an recent update on the Atlantic ocean current tipping point. Current Earth system computer models (ESMs) project a dramatic slowing (28–42% by 2100) of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC) across a range of climate scenarios, with a complete shutdown of SMOC possible by the year 2300. These newest predictions for ocean current slowdown are decades ahead of previous climate-related forecasts. Maintaining this critical ocean current at the same pre-climate change speed it has held for thousands of years is essential to humanity's future survival. This ocean current slowdown is a massive climate change tipping point with many impacts; see this article.

Most of the above-activated tipping points can and will trigger abrupt and significant releases of carbon back into the atmosphere, such as the release of carbon dioxide and methane caused by the irreversible thawing of the Arctic permafrost. After the above global warming tipping points are crossed, additional warming would become self-sustaining due to both positive feedback loops within the climate system and the mutual interaction of these global warming tipping points.

It is best to think about the above nine interacting global warming tipping points within the climate system like a row of dominos. These climate system tipping points are so interconnected that knocking over the first couple of "dominos" will most likely lead to a cascade knocking over many, if not all, of them. Once the above global warming tipping point "dominos" lock into their falling cascade, we are already at a point of global and societal no return.

It is not just us saying this:

Because of these global warming tipping points and positive feedback loops, Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director emeritus and founder of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, believes that if we go much above 2° C, we will quickly get to 4° C anyway and, a 4° C increase would also spell the end of a tolerable human civilization.

Johan Rockström, the head of one of Europe's leading research institutes, warned that in a 4°C warmer world, it would be "difficult to see how we could accommodate a billion people or even half of that. Not even a rich minority world survive with modern lifestyles in the post-4°C-warmer turbulent, conflict-ridden world". 

Many other climate scientists have warned that once the climate warms 4 degrees C over our preindustrial average global temperature, human adaptation to these temperature levels will be all but impossible!

Leading Stanford University biologists released new research recently showing species extinctions are accelerating in an unprecedented manner. The rapid loss of biodiversity is another likely and already occurring tipping point for the collapse of human civilization. (These are the same Stanford biologists who were first to warn us that we are already experiencing the sixth mass extinction on Earth.)

Please note that many climate researchers also believe that we entered into extinction-level runaway global warming long before we will hit carbon 425 ppm and even before we hit carbon 386 ppm. Like the NASA scientist James Hansen, who warned 40+ years ago about climate extinction, many climate researchers hold that global warming tipping points and amplifying positive climate feedback loops act to "stack up" on each other and magnify their combined adverse effects. They maintain that we entered into runaway global warming (because of the stacking effect) as soon as we crossed carbon 350 ppm, just as James Hansen predicted. 

Soon we will lose control of the tipping points for the Amazon rainforest, the West Antarctic ice sheet, and the Greenland ice sheet in much less time than it's going to take us to get to any dubious and unenforceable global national net-zero emissions pledges. 

There is an additional and crucial way to think about the race to reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets before we cross more of the extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points. Imagine that the captain of the Titanic suddenly sees the iceberg in front of him. To slow and steer the Titanic away from the iceberg, he needs at least 3 miles, but he is only 1 mile away from the iceberg. In this example, the Titanic is already doomed when the captain notices the iceberg.

This Titanic example is not much different than our current situation. We have already gone over the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff. We are doing very poorly toward reaching the last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. We have wasted so much time over the previous decades ignoring valid scientific warnings; we have very little time remaining to "steer" away from extinction. 

We already have a baked-in minimal 1.5 - 2 degrees C in average global temperature increase. We also have initiated the global climate tipping point cascade effect, which will quickly get us to 4°C, and the collapse of a civilization in which no one would want to exist. This 4°C alone will rapidly take us to a far less habitable planet and climate regardless of any additional global fossil fuel reductions we might now make.

 

 

In the image above, the unillustrated Planetary Threshold dividing line is the climate cliff previously mentioned of carbon 386 ppm. As one can see, once we cross that carbon 386 ppm Planetary Threshold line, the stability of our climate rapidly collapses into an over-heating uninhabitable Earth!  

Here are the most probable carbon feedback loops, carbon sink losses, points of no return, and tipping points to be crossed after we crossed the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff in 2015

1. Decreased albedo from reduced snow cover and melting Arctic ice increasing the earth's average global temperature,

2. Increased sea ice and glacier melt resulting in additional sea-level rise,

3. Increased atmospheric water vapor increases, resulting in more extreme weather,

4. Increased permafrost and tundra heating, releasing more carbon and methane, resulting in more heat, disease epidemics, and possible pandemics. This tundra heating speeds up the process of more positive feedback loops and crossing more points of no return and tipping points. 

(Please note that rapidly melting tundra permafrost is also because the northernmost areas are warming twice as fast as the rest of the world.) This permafrost melting also can cause local and global pandemics caused by ancient viruses and bacteria being released from the permafrost. They have already had localized anthrax and smallpox outbreaks in Siberia because of the bacteria and viruses released from the decomposition of ancient frozen animals from the melting permafrost and tundra. Unfortunately, the Siberian residents had no existing immunity to these diseases and were not prepared to deal with these outbreaks due to a lack of available vaccines. 

5. Decreased carbon capture from the world's forests as temperatures rise and forests go from removing carbon from the atmosphere to carbon-neutral (no longer removing carbon from the atmosphere.) Carbon neutral is the state that occurs just before overheated over-stressed forests next begin to release carbon back into the atmosphere!

(Click here to learn more about each item listed above.)

Here are the most likely keystone tipping points to be crossed after we crossed the carbon 386 climate cliff in 2015

There is an extinction tipping point area that is the most likely first candidate to accelerate the beginning of the end of humanity. It is the increased melting of summer and year-round arctic polar ice due to global warming. 

It will genuinely have profound effects not only on worldwide weather stability but, more importantly, on significantly lowering global crop yields and significantly increasing global crop failures. Eventually, this will cause accelerating and massive global starvation, which will then also destabilize national economics, politics, and society.

In the summer, when the Arctic ice melts, there is less cooling of all growing season areas affected anywhere by arctic weather. Therefore, the more polar ice melts each year, the less cooling and the more heat and drought during the critical growing season in arctic-affected areas. 

Food crops are more sensitive to heat when there are droughts and, they are more sensitive to heat, rain bombs, and cold spells when they are just beginning to grow. Unfortunately, because more ice is melting in the Arctic ocean almost every summer and staying melted longer in the year, we are losing more and more critical cooling for our vital food crops. As a result, we are losing stable growing seasons. 

The five major food grains are the largest source of the world's food supply. They are corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, and sorghum. 

All of these grains have upper and lower temperature limits. Most of them cannot survive more than ten days during their growing season over 100° Fahrenheit. This is particularly true if this heat comes early in their growing season or when their soils are drought dry.  

Because of the continually increasing loss of the cooling effect on growing regions below the Arctic because of the constantly diminishing Arctic ice, the number of growing season days with temperatures over 100° will continue increasing steadily as more and more Arctic ice melts and remains melted longer throughout the year. (We estimate within a decade or so, we could have as many as 30 days of 100-degree heat during the growing season in many critical crop-growing areas.)

Because melting Arctic ice also affects and disrupts the jet stream and ocean currents like the Gulf Stream, you will also have extreme and unseasonable cold spells appearing during the prime crop growing seasons worldwide. These cold spells will also further reduce food yields and produce more crop failures during the fragile growing season.

This again means that the world will continue to experience more and larger crop reductions and failures as more polar ice melts and stays melted longer. Corn is one of the most significant food staples for humanity, and it is also one of the most sensitive crops to increasing 100 degrees plus temperatures and drought.

The following is from Wikipedia:

"Since 1979, the minimum annual area of sea ice in the Arctic has dropped by about 40%, as measured each September. From sea ice models and recent satellite images, we can expect that an Arctic sea ice-free summer will come before 2020. Models that best match historical trends project a nearly ice-free Arctic in the summer by the 2030s. However, these models do tend to underestimate the rate of sea ice loss since 2007." (If you would like to see a video of how more polar ice is melting each summer as the years go by, click here for this NASA video.)

The increasing melting of arctic polar ice is a clear and glaring warning sign of increasing global warming and future severe reductions in future crop yields, as well as dangerous increases in future crop failures. These crop failures will also mean higher prices, ever-increasing food scarcity, and increasing global starvation.

This Arctic crop stability problem is not something far off in the future. On the contrary, it is already happening in many world areas. 

It is also already causing large human migrations. The expanding and increasing polar ice melting is a primary "canary in the coal mine" for increasing future mass starvation not way off in 2100 as we have been told, but now and in years the decade to follow.

Already in the growing belt of the United States, we are seeing increased and record-breaking heat, droughts, rain bombs, Derechos, and other extreme unseasonal weather that directly affects crop yields and crop failures in the most vulnerable areas. This pattern of greater crop yield reductions and crop failures will continue to increase as long as more polar ice disappears and the Arctic remains relatively ice-free into longer and longer summers. As the process of massive crop reductions and failures expands and continues, mass starvation will begin to destabilize all of our other economic, social, and political systems. 

Reduced polar ice also reduces the albedo effect because white snow or ice reflects heat away from the Earth and into the atmosphere, keeping the world cooler. However, as more Arctic polar ice is melted, the darker polar oceans absorb the heat and then heat up more, which once again causes more global warming.

As global temperatures continue rising, the time frames in which we will be crossing more of the tipping points listed above will get shorter. But that will not be the only significant effect of the melting of Arctic ice due to global warming. Paradoxically, according to new studies, we will also have more extreme cold and heavier snow during the US winters because of melting Arctic ice. 

In general, you can count on that increased crop yield reductions and crop failures will increasingly occur because of arctic ice melt, increased heat, increased droughts, increased cold spells, increased rain bombs, and extreme weather storms. This will make it more and more impossible for modern agriculture and the major food crops to survive throughout their current growing seasons. There are estimates that crop yield reductions and crop failures will average 5 to 10% or more for each degree Fahrenheit that the average global temperature rises. This will continue until the planet becomes so warm that too many days of the growing season will be at 100° or more. This will make successfully growing the world's five major grains all but impossible.

The carbon 386 ppm climate cliff and its 1.5 C temperature increase threshold was the last threshold for excluding humanity's mass extinction threat by mid-century. Staying below 1.5 C was also the final threshold where we could have prevented a significant acceleration in crossing other more dangerous global warming tipping points. 

One can see from the preceding that while we all do our best to encourage our governments to meet the 2025 targets, it is also now wise to start a personal global warming emergency backup plan and "Plan B!"

Please click here for a special update on the fact that on Feb 3, 2024, for the first time ever, atmospheric carbon rose above the carbon 425 ppm threshold.

 

New technology will not be able to save us in time!

Many people falsely believe that geoengineering, carbon capture, or some other new miracle technology will ride in like a knight on a white horse at the last minute to save humanity from the natural consequences of its decades of previous bad climate decisions, actions, inactions, and mistakes. 

(Click here to read more about why this fairy tale carbon capture technology is not going to happen or will be "too little too late" to save us.)

We are cautionary and warn people about the pitfalls of techno-optimism and the engineer's limited and mechanistic view of complex adaptive systems (the climate, biological and social systems, etc.). But, it does not mean we are anti-technology.

Our position on the use of technology is best described by the term Appropriate Technology. Appropriate technology is a movement encompassing technological choice and application that is small-scale, affordable by locals, decentralized, labor-intensive, energy-efficient, environmentally sustainable, and locally autonomous. Unfortunately, the miracle "new technology" solutions proposed for climate change are far from the best appropriate technology principles.

Allowing an atmospheric carbon 425-450 ppm level ever to be reached is humanity playing with fire and betting the house (its survival) on both being insanely lucky and on nonexistent or insufficient new remedial technologies

Humanity thrived for almost 1,000,000 years when the historical interglacial high atmospheric carbon levels remained within the carbon range of 270-280 ppm. 

Decades ago, climate scientists warned us that when we crossed the atmospheric carbon 350 ppm level, humanity would be unsafe from horrible consequences and even extinction, and we were on the way to runaway global warming. 

Measuring the most dangerous greenhouse gases of atmospheric carbon [CO2,] methane [C4,] and nitrous dioxide [No2] are the best ways to measure the increasing threat level of global heating consequences. These measurements are also one of the best ways to predict future global heating and temperature levels. 

In the illustration below, on the left vertical axis are atmospheric measuring levels for both carbon and nitrous dioxide in parts per million [ppm.] On the right vertical axis, you see the measuring level for atmospheric methane in parts per billion [ppb.] Across the bottom of the illustration is the last 2,000+ years. 

The red, blue, and black lines moving from left to right across the illustration tell the painful story of human history and the pollution of our atmosphere. The illustration clearly shows what happened when humanity began the fossil fuel-powered industrial revolution in the late 1700s to early 1800s.

 

 

Here is a bit more about our atmospheric carbon history and its meaning. Many climate researchers believe we are already in the beginning stages of runaway global warming and have been so for quite a while. (Think of runaway global warming like a train rolling down a steep hill with no brakes.)

What most people do not understand about what helps cause runaway global warming within the climate's systems and subsystems is that crossed climate tipping points will create a higher new global temperature that also will trigger more climate tipping points and more amplifying climate feedback loops. By themselves alone, more triggered climate tipping points and climate feedback loops will increase heating within the climate system, producing more severe consequences. Each add-on new tipping point and feedback loop helps create a growing "stack" of overlapping temperature-increasing mechanisms fueling runaway global warming! 

At some point, triggering the next climate tipping point or feedback loop will initiate an unstoppable domino effect, which will trigger even more tipping points and amplify more feedback loops at faster and faster rates. Once this level is reached, the tipping point and feedback loop "stacking" effect ensure that a self-sustaining cycle of feedback loops will repeatedly create the next higher level of temperatures and more severe consequences. 

The stacking effect was predicted decades ago by one of the world's most respected NASA climate scientists, James Hansen. Hansen said that if the atmospheric CO2 level reached and stayed at only the carbon 385 ppm level and was allowed to sit there for many years, it alone could kick off a climate tipping point and feedback loop stacking effect. He warned that this stacking effect would lead to an unstoppable chain reaction to higher and higher temperatures (hence runaway global warming.) 

So here is the tough love. Humanity thrived successfully for millennia when atmospheric carbon was at the 270 to 280 ppm-level. We went over the climate cliff in 2015 when we hit a carbon 386 ppm level. Within the next 2-3 years, we will pass the carbon 425 ppm level. 

We would have stayed safe from runaway global warming if we ONLY stayed below the carbon 350 ppm level. According to James Hansen, since we passed the carbon 386 ppm in 2015, we have already triggered the stacking effect. We already have activated the crossing of ever more climate tipping points and feedback loops. 

Brace yourself. As of April of 2022, we were at carbon 421 ppm. From the preceding, one can see that this carbon 421 level is far, far beyond any reasonable and safe atmospheric carbon level and far into the stacking effect of runaway global warming. 

At the carbon 421 ppm level, our atmospheric carbon level is about 155% greater than the humanity-thriving level of carbon 270 ppm. One has to wonder, how much higher does this percentage of atmospheric carbon have to rise beyond the last safe level of carbon 350 ppm, before we collectively finally realize we are in a grave extinction danger?

Allowing an atmospheric carbon level of 425-450 ppm ever to be reached is humanity playing with fire and betting the house (near-total extinction) on being both insanely lucky and on nonexistent or insufficient new greenhouse gas remedial technologies.

No matter how you look at it, we are at a completely immoral and insane risk level to the survivability of humanity. We are already living beyond the highest possible danger zone.

If we are very, very fortunate, and it is not already too late, we may have another 3 to 9 years before crossing over the 425-450 ppm threshold and into the full-on runaway global warming where global heating and the extinction emergency goes out of our control for centuries, but we indeed do not have any more time than that. 

We are at our absolute last chance, 3 to 8-year warning! 

Either we make the necessary and radical 2025 global fossil fuel reductions, or we face near-total extinction that survivors may never be able to reverse for centuries to thousands of years. 

On the other hand, if we miss this last three to nine-year opportunity to prevent our extinction, we can at least hope to slow it down to have more time to get ourselves ready for near-total extinction.

"We have delayed facing and fixing the climate change emergency for decades, and it has now reached an insane climate change extinction risk level. This extinction risk level is so high that it is comparable to humanity playing Russian roulette with a gun where every chamber of the revolver has a bullet in it, and every bullet is an extinction-accelerating tipping point or catastrophic amplifying climate feedback loop." Lawrence Wollersheim

What we do in the next three to nine years in getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets will determine the survival and future of much of humanity. And if we do not fix this, it will also be many of the lives of Earth's plants and animals that will suffer the same horrible fate. 

Post-carbon 450 ppm, no government will be able to deal with these global heating consequences for long. If our governments fail to act, few, if any, will survive. Even fewer individuals would want to exist in the over-heated world we would leave them.

If you have any doubts about what amplifying climate feedback loops or climate tipping points are or their importance to your future, a new video has come out called Earth Emergency. It takes you through the most dangerous climate feedbacks and tipping points in an easy-to-understand way. This public broadcasting (PBS) video also makes the key points we are making on this website. Click here to see this "don't miss it" super simple video.

Please share these ten critical climate facts everywhere! Unfortunately, at best, we have only 3 to 9 more years to fix this climate nightmare.

(Special note 4.22.2022: There is a lively ongoing conflict between various climate change researchers. Some believe we are already in a state of runaway global warming, and there is nothing we can do about it at our current greenhouse gas levels. This group believes we are already headed to near-total to total human extinction. 

Another group of climate researchers believes that we still may be able to prevent near-total extinction (but not avoid mass extinction) if we can do the nearly impossible task of cutting global fossil fuel use by 75% to at least get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets discussed here.

Other climate researchers using the grossly underestimated and distorted IPCC calculations believe we have until about 2030- 2040 to make much smaller global fossil fuel reductions and still save humanity. 

Our website reflects the ongoing conflicts within researcher positional differences. As an organization, we currently believe that the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century is unavoidable. However, we still may be able to prevent near-total extinction if we can do the near-impossible task of cutting global fossil fuel use by close to 75% to meet the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets discussed here. 

We believe the probability of getting even close to the 2025 reduction targets is extremely low. Therefore, we also have created an action program that compensates for this probable failure to prevent climate change from reaching severe extinction levels. We hope that this clarification helps our readers better understand our current position and our Job One action plan.)

Reviewing the most misunderstood climate danger because it means our survival or extinction

What not coming close to the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets means, and what is at stake:

1. If we fail, we will not be able to even slow down the unavoidable extinction of half or more of humanity by mid-century. 

2. Only by coming very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets do we have any reasonable chance of preventing an even worse, near-total extinction event from ending humanity and civilization occurring from 2050- 2080 or sooner.

3. Because near-total extinction is now associated with crossing the atmospheric carbon threshold of carbon 425 - 450 ppm and the eventual higher temperatures produced when we cross that threshold, we only have about 3 to about 9 more years to be able to prevent our near-total extinction. (Carbon is currently accumulating in the atmosphere at about three carbon ppm per year.) 

4. Unfortunately, we also have two additional super-dangerous extinction-accelerating tipping points after the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point threshold. (Please go to this page and go down to the second extinction tipping point. It will inform you of what happens after we cross the carbon 450 ppm threshold.

5. After crossing the carbon 425-450 level, the following three extinction-producing tipping points are FAR worse than what you have read above! they will create both extinction level, and Venus affect level runaway global warming.

Putting ALL of the above together as a single unified process

There is a lot of complex climate information listed above. To help you see this page developing from one deadly, multilayered, overarching process called the Climageddon Feedback Loop, click here. This one page will tie all the processes and interconnections above together in a way that will allow you to see the climate nightmare at the level the best global climate researchers see it.

When you understand the Climageddon Feedback Loop, you understand why you should start preparing for the coming climate chaos NOW. You will also understand why climate change researchers who accurately include it in their calculations are terrified and quietly moving their families to safer climate change locations if they are currently in medium to high-risk areas.

 

Discover amazing information, tools, alerts, and promotional benefits for becoming a Job One for Humanity climate change think tank donor/supporter/member by clicking here!

Summary 

1. If we fail to come close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, global temperatures will continue to rise faster and faster, and we will not be able to stop ourselves from crossing over more of the four extinction-triggering global warming tipping points and the extinction of about half of humanity by about 2050 becomes unavoidable and all but certain!

The first two (or three) of these tipping points sit at the threshold needed to initiate first a mass human, animal, and biological extinction process, which will be out of our control, and which, will kill much of humanity by mid-century through mass starvation, resource conflicts, and these 20 other consequences. 

Worse yet, if we fail to come close to the 2025 targets, we initiate the unstoppable processes of near-total extinction.

To verify Reason 1 is scientifically valid, please read the following documentation and analysis:

Click here to read about how and when the four extinction-evoking global warming tipping points will occur. This extinction tipping point page provides the critical science on how we already moving too close to going over four extinction-evoking global warming tipping points.

Crossing the fourth and last tipping point will lead to what is called runaway global heating, near-total extinction vs. mass extinction and a doomsday beyond our worst religious predictions and prophecies. (Runaway global warming is where the average global temperature keeps rising until Earth's atmosphere is ripped off into space like what is believed to have happened on Venus.)

Click here to read about the necessary 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets for all nations. In general, all developed nations have to reduce their total fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025. Underdeveloped nations, which did not cause most of the current global warming emergency, have lower targets. Lower targets for underdeveloped nations are both morally just and fair since they played a far, far smaller part in creating the current global warming extinction emergency.

2. Well before we reach humanity's predicted climate change-driven mass extinction by about 2050, the likelihood that humanity will destroy itself near-totally in much larger multi-regional or global conflicts before 2050 is exceptionally high. Here's why.

After we have crossed our last chance atmospheric carbon 450 ppm threshold and tipping point, humanity's mass extinction by about 2050 will be driven mainly by starvation, mass migrations, and localized conflicts. But there is also an exceptionally high probability of much larger conflicts occurring due to climate change's many accelerating secondary consequences. 

These secondary consequences include intensifying smaller-scale localized resource conflicts, which will also create much larger-scale national, international, and global conflicts.

The many extinction-accelerating secondary consequences of climate change are described fully about 1/2 way down this page. We strongly recommend reading the secondary consequences of climate change because it will help you to viscerally and intimately understand climate change's secondary consequence-driven coming suffering and death. 

(Click here also to learn why human extinction by about 2050-2070 might be only near-total extinction, not the far worse total extinction, but only if we do not keep our atmospheric carbon levels below the carbon 450 parts per million. level.)

 

 

2: Most people do not understand that our climate system has dominant momentum factors already built into it. 

This accumulating past momentum is so strong that what we do today to reduce global fossil fuel use will not show up in results (like average global temperature reduction) for about 20-30 more years. We are dealing with the global warming momentum problem because, in part, we have ignored 35 years of global warming warnings by our best climate scientists.

We should have begun significantly reducing global fossil fuel use 35 years ago. Having ignored those many and extensive warnings, to save ourselves from a Climageddon Extinction Scenario running its full course to runaway global warming, we now have only until 2025 to reach the very difficult 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.

 

 

3: The accelerating global warming emergency is not taking place in a vacuum.

There are many other global challenges getting worse and making global warming worse. The world is dealing with 11 other major global crises (described below) that provide a powerful interactive, inter-connected, and inter-dependent transformational context in which the accelerating global warming emergency is occurring.

These 11 other global crises will accelerate many of the worst global warming consequences (also described further below.) Simultaneously, the accelerating global warming emergency will also multiply or amplify many of the worst consequences of these 11 other major global crises.

Because of the negative consequences of how all of these global crises will feed into each other, once we go over the 2025 global warming Climate Cliff, we will make most of humanity's 11 other global challenges so much worse that humanity's survival is highly unlikely. If we do not come close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, what we will face is the eventual complete extinction of humanity and the total collapse of our global civilization within a matter of 3-5 decades.

Click Here Now if You Are Ready to Vote if the Global Fossil fuel Cartel is Guilty of Causing Climate change and Financially Responsible for all Climate change Loss and Damage.

For answers to all of your questions about climate change and global warming, click here for our new climate change FAQ. It has over one hundred of the most asked questions and answers about climate change.

Earth Day 2022's single biggest challenge is our accelerating climate change emergency. It is the greatest disruptor of the 21st century. 

This Earth Day you can do two easy things to lower the threat to our precious Earth and make a real difference. Do these actions and you will forward the well-being of the Earth in two concrete and practical ways:

1. Get current and read the latest summary of the ten most critical facts concerning climate change. Click here to read this current State of the Climate Change Emergency.

2. Click here to help educate far more people about the climate change emergency and help this all-volunteer non-profit organization.

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