Most people are not prepared for how our intensifying runaway global heating consequences will devolve our political systems to more primitive forms.

Read more

They used horribly wrong fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines for saving humanity, now they are celebrating their bill.

Read more

Last Updated 2.17.25.

Overview

After we pass the carbon 425-450 ppm level, a huge looming climate change tipping point and a great global disruptor is called the Thwaites "doomsday glacier." It may partially or fully collapse into the Antarctic Ocean as soon as 2026-2031, or in the following decades.

It is the size of England, and its collapse will initially raise the global sea level by 2-3 feet and later rise to 10 feet more over many decades. Because half the world's population lives along our sea coasts, the Thwaites glacier's collapse would trigger a level of unimaginable global chaos.

The Thwaites Doomsday Glacier

Everyone should pay close attention whenever they hear the word "Thwaites" in the news. When the Thwaites doomsday glacier collapses, global climate consequences will worsen rapidly. 

 

 

 

 

 

The Thwaites Doomsday Glacier Collapse Will Also Create the World's Largest and Fastest Real Estate Collapse and Mass Migration

This sea level rise will occur faster than all of the world's nations can adapt. Normal distribution and manufacturing of food and other commodities will be severely disrupted. Millions and millions of homes and businesses will become uninhabitable.

Worse yet, after the Thwaites glacier collapses, the glaciers behind it, now securely sitting on top of an Antarctic mountain range, will begin sliding off those mountains into the sea. These other glaciers sliding into the sea will raise the global sea level by another 7-10 feet. It will take many decades for the additional 7-10 feet of sea level to rise. 

When one understands the consequences of the Thwaites doomsday glacier collapse below, one will grasp the unheard-of scale and scope of the global economic, social, and political turmoil that will occur.

 

 

Humanity's biggest question: How soon will the Thwaites Doomsday Glacier collapse into the sea?

A new article in the Smithsonian magazine predicted the Thwaites glacier could collapse irreversibly as soon as in another 3 to 5 years. Other glacier scientists say it may take decades for Thwaites to collapse.

Because glacier scientists have recently developed new measuring tools, procedures, and methodologies, they hope to get an even more accurate collapse date soon.

Getting this date right as soon as possible is critical because the speed at which huge pieces of this Florida-sized glacier are already breaking off (known as calving) is rapidly increasing. For example, the Thwaites glacier calving process has increased by six times over the last 30 years.

 

How fast will the first 2-3 feet of sea level rise once the Thwaites doomsday glacier collapses into the sea?

The 2 feet of global sea level rise from the Thwaites collapse will likely occur over decades (The science for telling us a more precise date range for how soon ALL of the Thwaites glacier ice will melt {once it is entirely in the ocean} is still being refined.) 

How bad will the consequences get when the Thwaites doomsday glacier collapses?

When Thwaites collapses, and it melts fully in the oceans, the eventual 2-3 foot sea level rise will cause a massive migration away from the coasts and an economic and social crisis.

Humanity will lose hundreds of trillions of dollars in coastal property. This huge loss is because about half of the human population lives in the world's coastal areas, and some of the world's largest and most important cities are on the coasts.

 

 

Once the date of the Thwaites glacier collapse is more accurately predicted and widely published, the world's largest global sell-off of affected coastal real estate will begin. This will be due to the sea level rise facts of continual extensive flooding over larger and larger areas over the following decades. There will be massive real estate and business losses that will stress to the very edge of collapse even the world's strongest economies. 

When Thwaites collapses, its 2-3 feet of flooding alone will destroy much of the coastal infrastructure (roads, hospitals, food storage and distribution, sewage and water treatment, medical facilities, port importing and exporting functionality, energy transport or generation, etc.)

Moreover, in the stronger nations, the collapse of Thwaites will trigger mass migration and a managed retreat from all affected coastal areas over the following decades. This massive migration and managed retreat is inevitable because the continually increasing sea level-driven flooding will be both irreversible and certain (first the Thwaites 2-3 feet, then the 7-10 feet more from the glaciers behind it.) 

Attempting a managed retreat at the massive scale of coastal damage that will be happening will still be completely unmanageable for most of the nations of the world. Because of this widespread unmanageability, there will be unheard of economic, social, and political chaos. (See the map image below of only 2 feet of sea level rise flooding. This will give you an idea of the scale of catastrophe the US alone will try to manage. Unfortunately, this flooding map image does not show what will happen on the west coast of the US or for other costs nations.)

Imagine moving hundreds of millions of people, businesses, and infrastructure in a decade or two after the initial Thwaites collapse date is announced. In this global mega-climate catastrophe, governments, emergency services, and charities will rapidly deplete their support resources.

Nations will break under this climate catastrophe's horrendous costs and social stresses. Governments will be forced to radically increase taxes and drastically cut national social programs and safety networks to cover the many trillions of dollars in Thwaites-related climate damages.

Eventually, most nations will have to declare martial law and suspend many freedoms and human rights to maintain any semblance of law and order during a catastrophe and emergency of such a widespread and global magnitude.

 

 

With only a 2- 3 feet sea-level rise, most of the world's weaker nations and economies will collapse due to the cost of the flooding's direct and indirect damages. As many nations collapse, this will create more migration, global conflicts, and related problems.

The collapse of the Thwaites glacier and the glaciers behind it will also significantly increase worldwide weather and climate extremes. 

If you thought the world had a housing problem today, imagine how bad the housing shortage will get after the first foot of Thwaites sea level quickly rises. Hundreds of millions of people will have to move. Now add the next 1-2 foot of Thwaites-related sea level rise where a billion or more coastal inhabitants must leave their homes.

We strongly recommend reading about the primary and secondary consequences of global heating. When Thwaites collapses, it will activate or trigger many of the primary global heating consequences. But unfortunately, it will also trigger many even worse secondary global heating consequences. Once you understand the sudden global nightmare when the Thwaites collapses, you will waste no time getting started with the Job One Plan B to protect your loved ones and your business. 

And finally, what will the world be like when the glaciers behind Thwaites slide into the sea, raising the sea level another 7-10 feet? Half of humanity (about 4 billion people) will have to move away from the coasts. Coastal highways, homes, ports, and businesses must either move or adapt to severe, fast-moving, and unthinkable changes.

With an eventual predicted 10-13 total feet of Thwaites-related sea level rise, the world will look nothing like today's world. Imagine what will the global housing crisis be like then? 

How soon will the other glaciers behind Thwaites slide down the Antarctica mountains into the sea?

Once Thwaites collapses into the sea, the other glaciers sliding off the Antarctica mountains process cannot be stopped. The other glaciers will slide into the sea over an extended period of many decades or sooner. Many variables still determine the date range for when humanity will have to deal with the additional 7-10 foot sea level rise. 

 

 

Why the collapse and full melt dates for the Thwaites doomsday glacier (and the glaciers behind it) are the world's most valuable information?

The Thwaites collapse and major global climate tipping point is why governments, militaries, intelligence agencies, hedge funds, investment bankers, and many other ultra-wealthy entities are racing to find out exactly how many years are left before Thwaites finally collapses into the sea. 

Accordingly, finding the most accurate collapse date has become the world's most valuable information. This is true because of the resulting loss of life and the loss of hundreds of trillions of dollars in property and real estate, not to mention what the mass migration of billions of people will do to the political, economic, and social stability of even the strongest nations.

When a more accurate Thwaites collapse date is determined, our governments (or the wealthy private enterprises sponsoring private research) may not share this date with the general public. This is because of the obvious financial or political advantages and they might not want to panic the public before those with this privileged information can ensure their safety, survival and protect their assets.

But, let's hope some independent university researchers get this collapse information first and publish it widely. If the date of the Thwaites collapse is made public, billions of poor people worldwide who will be most affected will have as much warning and preparation time as possible. The collapse date widely known will significantly lower the loss of human life and help reduce the resulting economic, social, and political chaos.)

 

 

 

Why share this life-changing climate fact now? 

1. Thwaites is a dangerous and imminent climate change consequence and runaway global heating tipping point that will trigger the most severe and certain damage over the largest possible global area in just a few years!

2. It is the climate catastrophe that individuals, businesses, and nations must be prepared for well before (decades before) the Thwaites rising sea level flooding occurs.

3. When the Thwaites collapse date prediction is released, it will be your last realistic chance to activate your personal climate emergency Plan B before it is too late. Once that collapse date is public knowledge, even though the sea level will not reach the 2-3 foot level for several decades, millions of prudent individuals and investors worldwide will simultaneously start buying safer land, homes, emergency food, and survival supplies, causing unheard-of shortages and soaring prices. 

4. As the soonest, most dangerous climate tipping point and global climate disruptor, Thwaites will radically and quickly change our whole world's current political, economic, and social stability. 

5. Insurance companies worldwide are already denying, canceling, or skyrocketing rates in climate change high-risk areas. This crisis is particularly true for the coastal areas that the insurance companies know could be severely impacted within the next 3 to 5 years (or next several decades) with a 2 to 3-foot sea level increase if the Thwaites glacier collapses during that period. (Click here to read the complete article on the worldwide escalation of insurance cancellations, denials, and skyrocketing rates for climate change high-risk areas.)

 

 

What can you do to prepare for the Thwaites doomsday glacier collapse and crossing this global cataclysmic climate tipping point?

1. While stopping the Thwaites glacier from collapsing is no longer under our control, it may only be after this horrendous global climate cataclysm that the world will take the runaway global heating extinction emergency seriously. Maybe after the Thwaites collapse, our governments will finally start doing something effective to save as much of humanity and our future as is still possible.

2. You can immediately get busy on the Job One for Humanity, Climate Change Plan B. It will help you prepare for what is coming and show you how to stop other severe climate consequences that we can still control.

3. You can push your government to get the urgent climate actions done on this page so that we do not soon cross over more mass extinction accelerating climate tipping points such as those found on this page.

4. Maybe after the Thwaites collapse, we will even begin to cooperate internationally and create some form of global climate governance that has the power to make new climate laws, enforce them, and severely punish any climate law violators, no matter in what nation they exist.

5. You can send this article to your friends and loved ones. (Don't let them get caught unprepared and unknowingly at severe risk.) 

6. Please be sure to also send this article to your local, regional, and national politicians (and protest them as described here)  to wake them up to the next major global disruptor and danger of the runaway global heating extinction emergency. (Unfortunately, our politicians and intelligence agencies have thus far failed to inform their nation's citizens of the imminent Thwaites collapse. This gross political failure exposes their nation's unprepared citizens to untold needless suffering, financial loss. and death.)

In Summary

The Thwaites glacier collapse catastrophe described above is why you should tune your ears to any news you may hear about the Thwaites glacier's final collapse timetable. This is especially true now that a new glacier measuring methodology and technology have been developed, allowing those with access to it to discover an even more accurate collapse date. 

1. The sudden collapse of the Thwaites doomsday glacier could be the largest single climate catastrophe ever, and it will be a massive global disruptor of the stability of our economic, social, and political systems.

2. We live in a highly globalized, highly interconnected world. We will painfully learn what that means when the Thwaites doomsday glacier collapses. Not long after the Thwaites collapses, the whole world will simultaneously experience the same devastating and highly disruptive climate consequences.

3. How fast Thwaites melts entirely in the ocean will determine the future quality of life for billions worldwide. (That initial 2 to 3 feet of sea level rise and its consequences do not even consider the additional 7 to 10 feet rise that will occur later.)

4. Hundreds of millions to billions of people with low or no resilience (because of poverty or previous climate catastrophes) will lose their lives because of the direct, indirect, and immediate and long-term consequences of the Thwaites collapse.

5. The many related consequences of the Thwaites doomsday glacier collapse will echo worldwide. It will not matter if you do not live on a coast. Most of humanity will eventually experience many of these interconnected consequences and losses. 

6. Of itself, the Thwaites collapse will not cause ALL of humanity to go extinct. Still, it and our other runaway global heating consequences combined will eventually kill many of us and make existence a living hell for humanity. And finally,

7. They call it the doomsday glacier for a reason! When Thwaites does break off, it is a major climate cliff. Let's hope you have already begun our Job One for Humanity, Plan B, Parts 1 and 2.

8. If you have doubts about the economic, social, and political chaos that the Thwaites collapse will eventually create, please click this link and read about how Thwaites will also intersect and interact with many of the other devastating primary and secondary consequences of the runaway global heating extinction emergency. (Please also note that while the Thwaites climate catastrophe will be global and horrific, it will not bring about humanity's total extinction for the powerful reasons discussed on this page.)

8. To see what our governments worldwide must do immediately to lessen the many damages from the collapse, click here.

9. This page helps explain why we have predicted that about half of humanity will perish from climate change-related primary and secondary consequences by mid-century.

Take a moment and imagine how a steady, certain, several decade-long, 2-3-foot global sea level rise might affect you and your future. Imagine how many of the world's major cities are on coasts.

How will it affect the distribution of the many things you need to buy to live? How will it affect the billions of people (mostly the poor) that will be harmed? How will you deal with the permanently flooded coastal roads, homes, businesses, and lost infrastructure like coastal water and sewage treatment facilities, docks and ports, coastal energy transfer or generation facilities, etc? 

Now imagine what this steady, inevitable, and gargantuan financial loss and massive social and political disruption will do to your own local area, region, or nation. And, never forget that it will take centuries to thousands of years to restore the glacier balance once we stop using fossil fuels.

We hope that you now understand the Thwaites Doomsday glacier threat. We also hope you will soon begin doing everything possible to prepare for it long before it occurs. 

The Job One Research Team

 

If you still have doubts about what you are reading...

For many visitors to our uncensored climate change think tank's website, their biggest question after reading our climate change consequences and timetable forecasts is, "Why are your climate change forecasts so much worse than almost everything I hear in the media from my government, the educational environmental and climate change organizations, or the former world's leading authority on climate change, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC)? Click here for the five critical reasons that will fully answer your "why are our forecasts so much worse" question.

 

Breaking Critical Climate News for 8.12.2022

Above we have the shocking Thwaites "doomsday glacier" collapse timeframe underestimation issue. Yesterday, a new study from Finland warned the world that previous climate computer models which predicted that temperatures would only rise in the Arctic by double are dead wrong.

Instead, the new study states that Arctic temperatures have risen four times higher than predicted compared to rising sub-arctic temperatures.

This is terrible climate news because it means: 

1. Our existing climate computer models for predicting future climate consequences and timeframes must be redone immediately.

2. Weather around the world will become much more unpredictable, unseasonable, and extreme because the Artic directly and indirectly controls or affects the weather for much of the world.

3. There will be considerably more crop failures and lower crop yields than predicted because of the Artic-influenced extreme and unseasonable weather.

4. More starvation and soaring food prices will result from more crop failures and low crop yields.

For years, we have told our readers that current computer model consequence and timeline projections are underestimated by at least 20-40%. Still, this 4 times what they thought level of Artic global warming underestimation shocked even us. 

Unfortunately, it also will significantly accelerate many of the other climate consequences found on this page.

A realization is developing within the Job One organization that, in several essential areas, runaway global warming is moving considerably faster than our predictions. Accordingly, we have moved up website predictions timetables and sped up our emergency preparation and relocation plans. How are you adapting to this acceleration of consequences?

Because runaway global heating consequences are accelerating so fast as of August 15, 2022, we also had to update the Climate Change and Runaway Global Feating Doomsday Clock. 

 

 

(Editors notes: In 2017, we told our readers about the dangers of the Thwaites glacier, but the technology had not been developed to get a more accurate date regarding when it would collapse into the sea. In 2017, we also told our readers that from 2025 to 2031, the world would experience an enormous intensification of global warming consequences. 

Some climate models say it could take a decade or longer for Thwaites to collapse. However, these longer-time collapse projections do not include some critical variables.

This intensification is because of new and old crossed climate tipping points and the reasons listed on this page. God help us if our governments, military, and the police of the local areas most affected are not already getting prepared for this well-predicted soon-arriving cataclysmic global climate event.)

 

Additional Thwaites Collapse Prediction Reliability Factors to Consider

It is necessary to add another 20-40% to the negative side of most of the current climate change predictions. This is due to the many error factors listed in all the links on this critical climate data reliability page. Please read this page carefully, particularly the links to the different types of data errors and underestimations surrounding current climate data releases.

 

For answers to all of your questions about climate change and global warming, click here for our new climate change FAQ. It has over one hundred of the most asked questions and answers about climate change.

Everyone should pay very close attention every time you hear the word "Thwaites" in the news. Thwaites is the name of the Thwaites "doomsday glacier" in Antarctica. It is the size of England or Florida and near its very dangerous tipping point.

Read more

This month's July newsletter is about some good climate news and not-so-good climate news. It also contains new climate articles, updates, and a special editorial. 

Read more

Last Updated 6.13.25.

Overview

This volunteer guide contains almost everything a self-organizing volunteer at Job One for Humanity should know. Never forget that as a Job One for Humanity volunteer, you are doing critical climate change remedial work for your own and the world's future!

If you have not done so already, please click here and take the climate change action pledge. It is super short, easy, and fast. Further below, this page contains both "must read" sections for all volunteers and the nice-to-read sections. 

Here are the section titles found on this page: 

(Skip any section title in four items below in the must-read section below that you have already read.)

1. Prologue.

2. All volunteers should have this basic understanding of our climate change and runaway global heating emergency and the benefits of fixing it. (Only three things to learn will help ensure your success.)

3. Why it is important to share your successes and problems with us regularly and miscellaneous important items.

4. Critical legal information for ALL Job One for Humanity volunteers (including special information if you will get involved in public climate protest actions.)

(Here are the nice-to-have areas to eventually familiarize yourself with if you want to make volunteering as enjoyable and successful as possible. The following section titles can be done anytime after you start volunteering.)

1. Why our volunteers do not waste valuable time and effort trying to educate or convince certain types of individuals?

2. It is also helpful for volunteers to understand the difference between prioritized, effective critical path global heating remedial actions that meet key extinction prevention deadlines and simple climate change progress that does move things forward but not in time to save humanity from mass extinction.

3. Additional important volunteer information. (This section is for individuals outside of the US or who speak languages other than English. It also answers some common questions volunteers sometimes have.)

4.. A strongly recommended project we hope you will get to at some point.

5.. Become the change you want to see in the world. (Making personal progress on the Job One Plan B helps you be a better volunteer.)

6. How to wisely start any project that you choose. (The simple key steps to get your first project rolling.)

7. About the Job One for Humanity, a not-for-profit climate think tank and social benefit educational organization. (This section is important if people ask where you get your climate information.)

8. How Our Climate Research, Review, and Dialectical Meta-Systemic Analysis processes are Unique. (This section is important if people ask about our organization's processes for how it does its climate analysis.)

9. About the Mission and Goals of Job One for Humanity. (This section will cover all of Job One's short and long-term mission goals so you can see our "big picture" plan.)

10. Conclusion

 

 

 

Why are you so important as a volunteer

As a non-profit educational climate think tank, we provide unpoliticized, uncensored, and accurate climate research information and analysis. We are not information marketing people, in-the-street climate protestors, activists, or for-profit business managers. We are climate researchers, analysts, and educators only. 

Our limited climate research and analysis role means that ALL website visitors, members, and volunteers must share the climate information and analysis they discover on our website for us! If they do not, our uncensored climate information will not reach enough people to make a difference before it is too late. 

Without the hundreds of thousands of our annual visitors taking up their survival-critical role in distributing our climate information and analysis, humanity has little hope to avoid soon-arriving, near-total extinction climate catastrophes. So please do your part! 

Actively and aggressively share and spread the climate information and analysis found oil our website and, where appropriate, become climate activists helping us to create honest climate solutions. 

1. Prologue

Over the last three decades, no climate conference, government action, or mass educational movement by any climate or environmental group has done anything to slow or stop the increase of dangerous carbon in the atmosphere. In fact, global warming-causing carbon in the atmosphere has gone from increasing gradually to rising exponentially. This exponential carbon increase signals unquestionable failure and that the runaway global heating extinction emergency is getting far worse.

Lower carbon levels [C02] in the atmosphere in parts per million [ppm] are the best measure of whether we are making progress. Increased carbon levels will mean increasing heat.

 

 

 

 

The above painful facts mean that what is currently being done in the climate and environmental education movements is not working! Therefore, we cannot keep doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. We have to radically shift our tactics to whatever will work within the extremely short time left to do so.

The powerful way the Job One for Humanity non-profit organization educates is through its self-organizing and independent volunteers. Our worldwide volunteers look at our existing projects and select one or create a project of their own that forwards the mission and goals of our organization as defined on this page.

Then they coordinate with other volunteers as needed and plan and execute their projects. The volunteer managers at Job One do not micro-manage or supervise volunteer projects other than to answer volunteer questions when asked.

Our volunteers are genuinely independent and self-organizing. That is precisely what is needed to grow a runaway global heating educational movement fast enough to save as much of humanity and biological life as possible.

If you are considering becoming a volunteer or already a volunteer, the rest of this page contains almost everything you need to know to succeed.

"You never need someone else's permission to do good in the world." Anonymous

10. Conclusion

Our role at Job One as a climate think tank is to provide un-politicized and accurate climate information. The role of our volunteers is to share the climate information they discover and, where appropriate, become climate activists. Without the hundreds of Job One volunteers taking up their future-critical roles in co-creating an honest climate solution, there is little hope we can avoid extinction-level climate catastrophes.

Please persist on your chosen projects as a Job One volunteer. Directly or indirectly, all of our educational projects aim to get our government to enforce the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. This is because if we do not get our governments to enforce and get close to the required 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, we will be unable to save most of the other half of humanity, which at this time, we can still save.

It is now up to you to get the Job One for Humanity climate change and runaway global heating analysis and remedial actions to all of your open-minded friends, neighbors, associates, and the world.

If you do not actively educate others, they will keep believing the grossly underestimated climate summary reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change spread by the media worldwide. Then, falsely thinking they are safe and there is little real urgency because of the media climate underestimation, they will do little to nothing to help fix our accelerating global heating emergency.

The coming suffering is unimaginable and not comparable with anything in human history. If you can imagine the worst possible hell on Earth, you would adequately envision our unsurvivable future if we fail to get close to the 2025 targets. 

Yes, we know it is a BIG ask of you to work on getting our politicians to act and work on our other projects, but what is the alternative? How else will we ever get our politicians to do the right thing to save the many beautiful creations of our civilization and much of our planet's life?

Isn't your life and the lives of everyone and everything you love worth the effort and sacrifice of doing this now rather than all of us suffering slowly until most of us are dead --- simply because we are too distracted or too busy and miss our last opportunity to act, (which is getting our governments doing the only thing that will save us in time, getting close to the radical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets?)

We truly do need every volunteer actively working! 

Please do not wait to start educating and protesting.

We are almost out of time.

And finally, thanks for joining our volunteer team! Our volunteers care enough, know enough, and are brave enough to act because if they don't, who will, and too much is at stake not to act. 

"By helping to educate about runaway global warming and our practical plan to fix it, you are doing something noble and beautiful. You are not only acting to save yourself and your loved ones but also helping to reduce suffering and save the lives of billions of others."

You are also becoming a true global heating hero or heroine and a runaway global heating educator or activist." Lawrence Wollersheim

Sincerely,

The Job One Volunteer Support Team 

 

 

Volunteer Education Verification Links

1. If you want to know why we have only until 2025 to make the life-critical global fossil fuel reductions:

 a. Learn about the climate system's many inertia and momentum factors here.

b. Learn more about the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets here.

c. Discover the detailed primary and secondary global warming-related consequences that will lead to the extinction of humanity and global collapse here.

2. The Job One for Humanity organization has adapted to the new reality that disruption is now necessary because:

a. We are in a global warming extinction emergency and will experience many now unavoidable severe global warming consequences. 

b. We most likely can not avoid the extinction of much of humanity by mid-century (because of our previous decades of delays in acting to resolve this emergency.) 

c. We still have a reasonable chance of preventing the near-total extinction of humanity due to accelerating global warming and the other 11 global crises we face if we act now!

d. Please see this article for some of the ways we are respectfully disrupting.

 

Other Helpful Volunteer Information

Click here to see a profile of our members and the audience of visitors who will most benefit from our website.

According to Google statistics, as of March 5, 2022, 4.5 million unique visitors have visited our website over the last five years to review our candid and non-politicized climate change analysis and research. Additionally, scores of climate newsgroups regularly display, like, and comment upon our climate articles.

If you still need to know more about current volunteer projects, positions, or volunteering at Job One before you volunteer 

Please see the two links below:

a. our newest volunteer projects listings.

b. our current volunteer ongoing administrative positions.

c. if you have not signed up yet to be a volunteer, click here and go to the bottom of the page.

 

Last Updated 8.17.23

Prologue

Even if we fail to come close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, there are dark benefits that can also be the necessary processes and framework for a Great Global Rebirth. A near-complete global collapse caused by the many runaway global heating consequences may turn out to be the second-best solution to the runaway global heating emergency.

By the time you finish reading this article, we hope you, too, will be able to see the value of global heating's worse-case dark benefits. (Of course, the best solution by far is to fix runaway global heating before it is too late.)

Introduction

Suppose we do not manage the runaway global heating emergency correctly. In that case, there is little doubt that the unstoppable forces of Mother Nature (the immutable laws of math and physics behind accelerating global heating) will fix the climate and global heating problem for us and save as much as 50% of the human population. 

Unfortunately, Mother Nature's solution will be very painful and destructive to humanity and current human systems. Below are the dark benefits Mother Nature will exact from us if we do not come close to achieving the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reductions and we fail to control the runaway global heating extinction emergency. (When you finish this article, please click here to see precisely how mother nature will most probably save us from ourselves even if we miss the 2025 targets big time.)

Here is what the forces of Mother Nature will do for us to help the remaining best prepared, wise, and most adaptable of us survive:

Benefit 1 - The benefits of evolutionary "creative destruction" may become the most powerful force behind The Great Global Rebirth. Creative destruction is the evolutionary recycling of parts or wholes of a system or subsystem unable to adapt. This core meta-pattern of evolution for breaking down and recycling non-adaptive parts and wholes allows the resources of these parts and wholes to be reused to support future experiments in the evolutionary process. 

The tremendous "creative destruction" of the global heating extinction emergency (its resultant catastrophes, chaos, and consequences,) further disrupting and multiplying our 11 other critical global challenges, will eventually also cause the eventual structural collapse or destruction of most or all remaining resistant and non-adaptive economic, social, religious and political structures. These would be the very structures that were either causing, maintaining, or benefiting from the runaway global heating emergency and would not likely be removed by any other social or political means other than the uncontrolled, sudden and near-total collapse of much of the global society. 

Once these change-resistant economic, social, and political structures have fallen, it will be far easier to envision and create something more sustainable and equitable for ALL survivors, the Great Global Rebirth. Survivors will not likely repeat the past painful mistakes or keep using the same economic, social, and political systems that have so horribly failed them in creating the runaway global heating emergency, mass extinction, and widespread global collapse. 

By allowing the natural evolutionary processes of "creative destruction" to clear out harmful or non-adaptive social, economic, religious, and political structures, the most significant extinction event and global collapse in human history can be fully transformed by the survivors into humanity's greatest opportunity for a better and new future --- a true global rebirth. Survivors can utilize this unconscionable tragedy as the perfect opportunity and leverage to make the massive and needed changes for our intentional new collective evolution.

For whoever survives, here are just a few of the potential evolutionary changes in values and processes that will be far easier to make once the highly-resistant existing social, economic, religious, and political structures have failed or collapsed.

Here are the benefits of destructive creation by removing non-adaptive and change-resistant structures:

1. the reduction of our destructive consume/pollute/waste consumerism, 

2. the ending of critical resource depletion to create resource rebalancing, 

3. we will be able to make any additionally needed reductions in global fossil fuels use and its massive carbon pollution of our air and water,

4. the ending of racial and educational justice, 

5. we can create universal healthcare, 

6. we can end wealth and income inequity, 

7. we can build housing and employment equity, 

8. we will allow for the return and strengthening of biodiversity because of reduced pollution and our encroachment into natural habitats, 

9. we can create effective global governance based on all planetary citizens' collective well-being vs. our current corporatocracy, which operates for the benefit of the wealthy few that we have now. (To begin to repair corporatocracy, we would need to remove all personhood rights from corporations, hold them strictly responsible to the triple bottom line principles and make them pay for all pollution and harm they cause to the public commons and wellbeing.) And finally, 

10. we can create the next evolutionary economic fair exchange system beyond our current corporate greed-based capitalism. This new economic system will not rely upon the false fundamental principle of unlimited growth within the closed and limited Earth system.

All of the previous items will help build a balanced and sustainable prosperity and a just and equitable future for ALL of humanity, including all biological life. All of the above things can help create a global civil society with individual human rights and responsibilities held in appropriate balance with community and government rights and responsibilities. (To learn more about the principles of the sustainable prosperity of the future, click here.)

If we have a future at all, in some form, it will likely be a "post-unlimited-growth, post-greed capitalist, and post-fossil fuel society world. If we are lucky, this future will arrive in part by:

a. a bit of proper management by ourselves,

b. by intentional design, and

c. in part by the pain and trauma of the horrendous mass extinction disasters and the great collapse. 

If you notice, these post-collapse aspiring values and processes are many of the same ones that we will need to work on to prevent global collapse and address the other 11 critical global challenges we now face. (To see what this means, look again at the Sustainable Development Goals illustration above.)

"The climate and global heating-driven extinction collapse may be the greatest opportunity in human history (and the greatest opportunity in your life) to re-build and rebirth a better world because most of the most powerful change-resisting societal structures and systems will finally be cleared away." Lawrence Wollersheim

 

 

Benefit 2  - Our failure to fix the global heating emergency will also help resolve all of these many of the following issues and obstacles within our other 11 critical global challenges. 

This benefit is crucial because an unavoidable future global warming extinction event will reduce the human population by half or more by mid-century. This massive global die-off, once completed, will also dramatically reduce or improve issues of global starvation, income inequality, wealth disparity, housing shortages, healthcare shortages, racial inequality, educational inequality, employment opportunities, inequality, and most of our other current pollution, religious intolerance, and environmental issues. 

This significant improvement is because the infrastructure for 8 billion people will remain for the 2 -4 billion survivors (or less,) and there will be far less demand for natural and human-made resources (like fossil fuels). Additionally, because of the severe and unprecedented trauma of this Great Collapse process, survivors will be less likely to allow or tolerate the previous income, wealth, housing, healthcare, racial, educational, and employment inequalities and disparities to continue any longer. (Click here for more about how Mother Nature will eventually fix the runaway global heating extinction emergency even if we do not.)

 

Benefits 3  - We will resolve the global overpopulation problem, the global resource depletion, and the resource overshoot problem. Much of the world's population will begin to perish if we miss the 2025 targets by mid-century. One way or the other, Mother Nature will do what we were unable or unwilling to do. Mother Nature, by way of accelerating global warming, will initiate The Great Global Collapse and Die-off and force us back to a planetary population level that the Earth's carrying capacity can sustainably support (about 1 and 1/2 to 2 billion). (Some researchers say that the true root physical cause of the global warming emergency is overpopulation and the resource overshoot caused by overpopulation.)

 

Benefit 4: - At this time, we can still hope that we will slow and lessen what is coming just enough so that some of humanity and civilization will survive in the future global warming safer zones. If we finally work together with Mother Nature, we will only experience an unavoidable mass extinction instead of near-total or total extinction.

 

Benefit 5 - Even if we do not stop escalating global warming in time for most of humanity to survive, from a "Big Picture" evolutionary perspective, there are still many benefits for our remaining biological planetary life and the evolution of any surviving humanity and our universe. Other species will not have their habitat destroyed as it is happening now, and fewer species will go extinct because we are currently being such poor stewards of the earth. 

If we fail totally and allow runaway global heating to reach its final extinction phases the benefits are:

It may take thousands to hundreds of thousands of years, but nature will always somehow recover if we work together to prevent the final and worst of the Climageddon Scenario, which is our atmosphere being ripped off into outer space because of the last stages of runaway global warming. Even if humanity goes completely extinct and we somehow prevent global warming's sixth and last Climageddon phase of total extinction from occurring, nature and the unstoppable forces of evolution will eventually recover from the damage we are doing, and some new apex species will evolve to take our place. Who knows, it may even be our prodigy in the form of robotic artificial intelligence (AI) life forms.

Key additional reading

Piease click here to see precisely how Mother Nature will eventually save us from ourselves if we miss the 2025 targets big time.

Please click here to read about the encouraging history of how as few as 200 mating pairs saved humanity from extinction in the past. 

 

Read more

This month's newsletter provides a new and qualified hope for our challenging future and the runaway global heating emergency. We completed a further analysis that defines this new hope (in the first blog article below).

Read more

Last Updated 5.26.25 

Job One for Humanity published this article. Job One is a nonprofit climate change think tank and risk assessment organization founded in 2008. It is independent, 100% publicly funded, and uncensored by any government or corporation.

The climate change facts below are not for individuals under 16 years old. These serious climate change adult problems are far too upsetting and complex for children under 16 to understand or deal with in healthy or rational ways.

(As of May 2025, we are currently in the middle of our second five-year upgrade of all content on our website. Until this upgrade is complete, our new editors may still be correcting minor grammatical or spelling errors as they go through the hundreds of pages on our website.)

 

Overview

This page contains the following sections:

1. Prologue and Introduction.

2. Why a climate change consequence-related total human extinction is highly improbable.

3. The natural dialectical counteractions that have been seriously underestimated in the previous climate change and global heating studies and predictions.

4. How Mother Nature's natural counteractions, consequences, and systems will be the dominant force saving humanity from itself and total extinction.

5. How long will it take for Mother Nature to kill off enough of us to save the rest of us?

6. How will the long-delayed, dialectical human system counteractions be an essential but later secondary force helping save humanity from a climate change-driven total extinction?

7. How much of humanity will perish and be left after mid-century?

8. When will our governments finally act in a way that honestly fixes the climate change emergency?

9. A helpful and balancing perspective on Mother Nature's coming mass die-off and widespread global collapse.

10. A "Big Picture" Way of Seeing Our Climate Change Consequence Timetables as Waves.

11. Conclusion.

12. What can you do today about our climate change-driven nightmare and your and humanity's survival?

13. Additional reading, important technical notes, and other collapse-related studies.

 

Prologue

A growing number of people worldwide have given up all hope and believe that:

1. Humanity can not and will not fix the climate change emergency before it is too late, and 

2. A climate change-driven total human extinction is inevitable.

This article presents facts and a well-reasoned dialectical meta-systemic argument (DMAP) that demonstrates that a climate change-driven total human extinction conclusion, while possible, is implausible.

Unfortunately, some of the promoters of the climate change "all is doomed to total human extinction and total collapse" mindset have failed to engage in deep, DMAP (dialectically meta-systemic analysis) on a subject as complex and crucial as climate change and humanity's future existence.

When one examines multiple levels down the chain of most likely climate change consequences interacting with the world's other crises and their most probable dialectical counteractions, humanity's climate change future is exceptionally challenging. Still, it is significantly more hopeful than the climate change doomers or post-doomers' "all is lost positions that they would like their followers to believe.

Suppose this article better reflects our most probable climate change future. In that case, I do not doubt that it will still be a long, excruciating, and painful process for humanity to endure and recover from. This climate change-driven widespread collapse and breakdown process, which will occur before humanity's climate change-related recovery process begins, is described at the end of this article and in this link.

This article discusses and illuminates the most probable and final human systems tipping point --- when humanity will finally act to deal with the climate change emergency. There is a painful surprise here concerning this final human systems tipping point leading to recovery. It is in the form of what will most probably happen to much of humanity just before humanity finally acts effectively to fix the climate change emergency.

Even if everything goes horribly wrong for humanity and we fail to get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, and we cross the carbon 450 ppm threshold and tipping point, which brings about phase 2 of irreversible global warming, we should still be able to save about thirty percent of humanity to as little as one to two percent of humanity.

If things go better than is discussed below, we might even be able to save 30-45 percent of humanity, but never more than about 50% of humanity once we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold.

This article also discusses the critical and painful circumstances that will finally force whatever governments are still standing to take the bitter medicine and radically reduce global fossil fuel use to levels required at that time. Hopefully, our government's actions will take the tough medicine in time to save as much of the remaining 50% of humanity as possible post-2050. 

A bitter and excruciating, chaotic process awaits humanity. This now unavoidable process is predominantly because of the many decades of the intention and continuous criminal acts by the global fossil fuel cartel to keep the public ignorant of the actual climate change dangers, and our politicians compromised or befuddled with disinformation. (At some point, you will want to review the first online public trial of the global fossil fuel cartel for crimes against humanity, which have maliciously driven humanity into its current climate change extinction emergency.)

Our current climate change emergency will have many horrible primary and secondary consequences (listed here). Still, with the help of Mother Nature, some luck, and the eventual human systems dialectical counter-reactions described in detail below, we should be able to avoid total human extinction.

(If you are uncertain about how climate change's many consequences interacting with humanity's other 11 major global crises could possibly cause a mass to a near-total human extinction long before 2100, click here and read this article before continuing.)

The information below will be upsetting and unsettling for any rational individual. Therefore, at the end of this article, we have provided links to a comprehensive climate preparation, adaptation, resilience, relocation, and recovery plan to help you manage all aspects of the consequences discussed. 

If you still believe that our governments would never let the current climate change emergency cause a large-scale human extinction ever to occur, please read this article. It describes the dozens of highly challenging problems the world's governments must collectively resolve before 2025 (maybe until 2031 at the very latest if humanity is very fortunate).

With your understanding of how poorly the world's governments honestly cooperate on anything, you are now ready to discover the many potent reasons why a climate-driven total extinction is highly unlikely. The following is a bit complex, but if you read to the end, the lists and illustrations should help you understand the legitimate science and analysis behind why humanity is unlikely to go totally extinct from climate change-driven consequences.

After you finish this article, please be sure to read its companion article called, the Climageddon Feedback Scenario. It will help you understand and "see" the climate change emergency at the level of a climate change researcher and analyst.

 

 

Introduction

To understand the headline of this article, it is essential to understand the difference between the DEATH AND DESTRUCTION levels of a runaway global heating-driven mass extinction, a near-total extinction event, and a total extinction event.

This article will clarify those differences and strengthen (or restore) a rational, balanced, and scientifically appropriate hope for our current climate change future.

The different levels of climate change and global heating-driven extinction are defined as:

1. Mass human extinction is now unavoidable because of our 60 years of climate inaction, ineffective action, and denial. We have been so grossly ineffective in slowing and reversing global heating for 60 years that about half of the human population will die by mid-century. 
2. Near-total human extinction is a scenario where as much as 50-90+% of humanity could go extinct before we slow and reverse the current runaway global heating. (The processes of near-total extinction are described in the first two extinction-accelerating tipping points on this page and then on this essential page.)
3. Total human extinction can only occur if atmospheric carbon levels rise to 800 to 1700 parts per million (ppm). At those levels, we risk our atmosphere being pulled out into space, and 100% of everything else that depends upon oxygen suffocating and going entirely extinct. (The processes of total extinction are described in the third and fourth extinction-accelerating tipping points on this page and then trigger the many processes found on this essential page.)

Fortunately, long before reaching those extreme carbon 800-1700 atmospheric carbon ppm levels, Mother Nature will step in with her tough medicine. Her excruciating "tough medicine" and intervention (as described further below) may result in close to our near-total extinction, but not total extinction!

We will not all go extinct because Mother Nature's "tough medicine" will occur and intensify in lockstep with the increasing severity, frequency, and scale of the primary and secondary climate consequences described in detail on this page. We will not go totally extinct also because the insane levels of suffering and mass die-off that will occur as half of humanity perishes over the next 2-4 decades will finally cause the world's population to demand that their governments act. 

Somewhere over the next 25-45 years, much of humanity will finally come to support their governments radically reducing global fossil fuel usage to the required levels needed at that time, or things will get far worse, and humanity will face an even more painful, total extinction scenario. Further below in this article, you will find the list of critical dialectical reactions and counteractions humanity will eventually take place, which will be an essential and timely contributing factor, but not the dominant factor in humanity experiencing only a near-total extinction and not total human extinction.

Ultimately, Mother Nature's powerful remedial cause-and-effect "tough medicine" reactions to our government's climate change inaction and stupidity, not our currently meager and sub-critical global heating remedial actions, will be the dominant force that ultimately saves humanity from ourselves and total extinction. This is simply saying that the many growing consequences of climate change (the cause) will disrupt and destabilize Mother Nature's natural processes and balance so profoundly that it will directly affect the survival of humanity in the form of ever-increasing die-offs (the effect) as climate change accelerates. 

The two main exemptions to humanity not becoming near-totally extinct due to the effects of climate change are if:

A. A global nuclear or biological war breaks out because of mass climate migrations, resource and food shortages, or another climate change-related primary or secondary consequence.

Well before we reach humanity's predicted climate change-driven mass extinction by about 2050, the likelihood that humanity will destroy itself near-totally in much larger multi-regional or global conflicts before 2050 is exceptionally high. Here's why.

After we have crossed our last chance atmospheric carbon 450 ppm threshold and tipping point, humanity's mass extinction by about 2050 will be driven mainly by starvation, mass migrations, and localized conflicts. However, there is also an exceptionally high probability of much larger conflicts due to climate change's many accelerating secondary consequences. 

These secondary consequences include intensifying smaller-scale localized resource conflicts, creating much larger-scale national, international, and global conflicts.

The many extinction-accelerating secondary consequences of climate change are described fully about 1/2 way down this page. We strongly recommend reading the secondary consequences of climate change because it will help you viscerally and intimately understand its secondary consequence-driven suffering and death. 

(Click here also to learn why human extinction by about 2050-2070 might be only near-total extinction, not the far worse total extinction, but only if we do not keep our atmospheric carbon levels below the carbon 450 parts per million. level.)

B. Somehow, we allow runaway global heating to reach the third and fourth extinction-accelerating tipping points and trigger the many processes  on this critical page.)

Everything you read below should hold true for anything short of global nuclear or biological war or reaching the third and fourth extinction-accelerating tipping points, and we still have a sliver of hope. 

 

Why a climate change consequence-related total human extinction is highly improbable

How Mother Nature's cause and effect "tough medicine" will help fix what we did not fix ourselves.

"Humanity has steadfastly ignored the ever-louder, continuous feedback from Mother Nature's consistently intensifying climate change's negative human and ecological consequences. These many climate change consequences directly result from humanity's unsustainable and destructive environmental behaviors and attitudes. 

Mother Nature will now 'fix' the source and cause of these unsustainable and destructive ecological behaviors for us. Mother Nature's healing process will not be a "fix" or a process that any rational human would wish, even on their worst enemy." Daniel Ford

The Job One research team must humbly admit that in our earlier research, almost a decade ago, we failed to fully allow for all appropriate compensatory weighting for the many natural and human system climate destabilization counteractions in our previous climate change research analysis. We were unable to fully acknowledge that these natural and human system climate change counteractions intrinsically respond to and act to powerfully counter the rapidly worsening global heating effects on our climate systems and subsystems. 

This generally unacknowledged natural and human system counteraction error has also been significant and consistently still present in other climate researchers' and climate organizations' current global warming predictions. 

The most critical omitted Mother Nature natural reaction consists of Mother Nature killing enough of us off, soon enough, using the destruction, disruption, and loss caused by the primary and secondary global warming consequences. This makes it impossible to add more human-caused fossil fuel carbon to the atmosphere and eventually cause our total extinction. It is that simple. Mother Nature kills off so many of us that global fossil fuel use drops because there are so many fewer people using fossil fuels. (The illustrations further down this page will help clarify this cause-and-effect counteraction.)

Previously, the Job One for Humanity organization held that total extinction would only be true if we did not get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. However, based on a new analysis by Job One on the factors listed further below, we now believe that while the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century is still unavoidable, total human extinction caused by primary and secondary global heating consequences occurring from about 2050 to 2070 (or sooner) is neither probable nor likely.

Based on our new analysis, which now includes several previously ignored or discounted natural and human counteraction scenarios, we now predict that if we can at least get close to the 2025 targets and prevent atmospheric carbon levels from crossing the final carbon 450 ppm tipping point, humanity will, at worst, only face a near-total extinction. 

Before we discuss the critical natural and human counteractions to runaway global warming, which can potentially save as much as 50% of humanity (if we don't cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold), we must explain a common scientific principle.

Global heating counteractions are similar to Newton's third law, which states that "for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction." 

If, at this point, you think about global heating consequences as the costs of global heating, it would be helpful. As global heating costs rise (their pain and suffering levels), there will be more and more human and natural counteractions (Newton's equal and opposite reactions) to control and lower these costs and suffering.

Climate change's natural and human counteracting processes will become more apparent as you review the rising "costs" of our runaway global heating consequences (further below) and the increased likelihood that natural and human counteractions will eventually react to those costs.

 

The natural dialectical cause and effect reactions of Mother Nature that have been seriously underestimated in the previous climate change and global heating predictions

An actual global heating-driven total extinction event can only occur if we put so much greenhouse gas into the atmosphere that our atmosphere is ripped off into space. Unfortunately, this is what happened to Venus because of ever-rising global temperatures. The strange but good news here is that total extinction will be prevented because so much of humanity will be dead long before we ever get to the extreme levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas, which could cause total human extinction.

To help you understand what those predicting inevitable total human extinction have missed or underestimated, it is necessary to start with the natural counteractions that "Mother Nature" will activate to rebalance the system as runaway global heating worsens. The following natural counteractions are the only counteractions that alone have the dominant and essential power to save humanity from humanity's own bad fossil fuel decisions and actions.

Unfortunately, there is also mixed bad and good news about fixing the total extinction threat by properly including the effects of key natural global heating counteractions:

Here is the mixed news:

1. The death of half of humanity by mid-century is still unavoidable. We have ignored six decades of valid scientific climate change warnings and have been ineffective in slowing the acceleration of global heating. The climate bill has come due.
2. Because of natural counteractions to rising global temperatures in the climate's systems and subsystems, we can still save much of the other 50% of humanity (but only if we get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible and stay below carbon 425-450 ppm).
3. If we widely miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, Mother Nature's counteracting climate-related primary and secondary consequences will soon accelerate dramatically and then exponentially. 
4. The good news is that Mother Nature's counteractions should ensure that ALL of humanity does not perish. But depending upon when effective human system counteractions are started, humanity could drop to 30-2% of its current population. The most likely Mother Nature-enforced die-off total should be around 15-20% of humanity surviving. That would be close to the Earth's true human population carrying capacity.
5. If 90% or more of the human population, or even close to that percentage, is lost because of climate change and the other world crises (described on this page) intersecting with climate change, we will likely enter into a new Dark Age where previous technological and knowledge levels cannot be sustained. This dark age could last hundreds to thousands of years, and for society to rebuild itself up to its current technological and knowledge levels. But even society rebuilding its technical and knowledge base over hundreds of thousands of years will be incredibly difficult because the Industrial Revolution and the Information Age that followed it were powered, fueled, and dependent upon easy access to relatively cheap fossil fuels like coal and particularly oil. If or when humanity enters the next Dark Age, it will not be able to access easy-to-reach or inexpensive-to-access oil with remaining or functioning post-collapse technology, because even today, easy-to-reach and inexpensive-to-access petroleum and coal have largely disappeared. Rebuilding the modern world after a new Dark Age would be impossible without the energy sources that powered the Industrial Revolution and the Information Age.

Please note: If we miss the 2025 targets by a lot, there will just be far fewer of us than if we get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. If we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets altogether and for considerably longer than 2031, then we will cross the carbon 450 ppm last threshold tipping point. There is a strong possibility that we will eventually go near-totally extinct because we will cross the third and fourth extinction-accelerating tipping points. We will have entered the fourth and fifth phases of irreversible runaway global heating discussed on this page.

Irreversible climate change means we cannot get the dangerous levels of excess greenhouse gases (like carbon) back down to a normal and human-safe pre-industrial level and out of our atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. (As of December 2023, we are currently at the insane atmospheric carbon level of 420 ppm. We will soon enter the generally considered irreversible and second phase of runaway global heating sometime between 2025 and 2031. This is when we enter the carbon 425-450 ppm range.)

At this point, you may wonder how Mother Nature will "allow" a mass or even a near-total human extinction while, on the other hand, still "preventing" us from going totally extinct.

It is because of a dialectical twist of evolutionary fate. 

 

How Mother Nature's cause and effect natural reactions, consequences, and systems will be the dominant force , saving humanity from itself and total extinction

Complex adaptive systems have "harmful" feedback loops and tipping points that can make the system worse, more unstable, or eventually crash. On the other hand, complex adaptive systems also have "helpful" countering feedback loops and tipping points that, at specific points, can trigger and make the climate system better and more stable and eventually restore the system to equilibrium or near-equilibrium. 

Although most of the most prominent "harmful" climate feedback loops and tipping points are known, most "helpful" natural climate feedback loops and tipping points are still unknown. This is because humanity has never studied anything like what is happening to us with our current runaway global heating emergency.

Rest assured, these "helpful" feedback loops and tipping points are there because we have repeatedly seen these "helpful" feedback loops and tipping points gradually restoring other harmed or crashed ecological systems back into new equilibrium states in different natural and biological systems. 

We have observed many predator-prey ecological systems that have nearly collapsed and then rebalanced once again using new processes involving new feedback loops and different tipping points that push the ecological system back closer to its original equilibrium.

Lucky for us, these same "helpful" feedback loops and tipping point rebalancing mechanisms exist within the climate's systems and subsystems.

These helpful tipping points and feedback loops can also help control the speed and damage levels of the runaway global heating extinction emergency. And then, at some point, they can trigger into action, assisting Mother Nature in beginning the restoration and rebalancing process and doing what is necessary to preserve the critical conditions for humanity to exist. 

Here is how those counteraction processes look for our future. While reading this list, please remember that the sooner humanity engages in truly effective, immediate, and radical global fossil fuel use reductions to keep humanity below the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, the fewer people that Mother Nature will need to keep killing off.

 

Mother Nature's global warming cause-and-effect reactions are as follows:

1. In perfect lockstep with our rising global heating, Mother Nature's immutable laws of climate physics will continue ratcheting up ever-intensifying climate and global heating-related consequences to kill off hundreds of millions of us and then billions of us. (The initial and main ways Mother Nature will kill us are low crop yields, crop failures, and soaring crop prices. Global crops will fail or be stunted because of global warming-aggravated heatwaves, rain bombs, droughts, flooding, wildfires, out-of-season cold spells, hail, Derechos (severe wind storms), and other extreme weather that destabilize normal growing season conditions. The world's five principal grains (rice, wheat, maize [corn], millet, and sorghum) are particularly vulnerable to climate-caused massive crop failure. This global heating-related crop failure occurs when temperatures (heat waves) are near or above 100 degrees Fahrenheit for about 30 days during the regular growing season. Increasing starvation always increases mass migration to wherever there is more food. These hunger-driven mass migrations will cause more local, regional, and national conflicts, creating a new amplifying feedback loop of even more mass starvation, soaring food prices, economic instability, and conflict. As these starvation and migration conflicts grow in food-growing and producing countries, food production also will drop because of the many food-growing and transportation disruptions caused directly or indirectly by those expanding conflicts.)
2. This massive kill-off will continue unabated until so few of us are left that humanity can no longer raise or maintain global temperatures by burning so much fossil fuel. 
3. The minimal critical point at which Mother Nature will stop killing us is when she has killed enough of us so that global fossil fuel use goes down to levels that no longer continue to heat the atmosphere. (This is likely the level where no human-caused additional greenhouse gases (carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide) are being added to the atmosphere. 
4. Mother Nature's final kill-off stage will end when so little additional greenhouse gas is being added to the atmosphere by remaining survivors that the atmosphere now even has the opportunity to start naturally removing existing greenhouse gases using natural Earth sequestering systems, which will begin lowering our average global temperature.
5. Mother Nature's climate system and subsystem inertia (resistance to change) will also help naturally slow the rise of global temperatures even as we are burning more fossil fuels, at least for a while longer. For example, for quite a while, the oceans and our soils and forests will keep absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and our seas will also continue absorbing carbon and heat from the atmosphere. (But at some point, that will stop, and these systems will begin releasing that stored carbon, and things will really go bad.)
6. Suppose Mother Nature solves our climate problems as our last resort. In that case, it is highly probable that it will take centuries to thousands of years for the atmosphere to recover the needed levels that are most conducive to the thriving of the human population.

Mother Nature is simply taking the natural and already occurring worst consequences of climate change and using those consequences to eventually reduce the human population and slow and reverse global warming.

There is one very important additional fact and perspective to understand about Mother Nature's solving the climate change problem for us. She will not be kind in how she kills us off, and she will not do it in an easy or tidy way.

 

Mother Nature's climate change and global warming healing process is going to be excruciatingly painful and costly.

We strongly recommend that you look at this page, which will take you step-by-step through the horror of insanely painful consequences that Mother Nature will inflict upon us until the atmospheric greenhouse gases of carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide return to preindustrial levels of about 270 ppm. Or, at least, they would return to about 350 ppm. (Carbon 350 ppm was the last level that James Hansen, the world-renowned climate scientist, said we would have a relative level of safety and climate stability.

For a moment, as a metaphor, think about what we are doing to our environment and the Earth as if humanity were a virus destroying its host. Now think of Mother Nature saving the Earth by killing off more of us by doing just what the human body does when it gets a virus. The human body raises its temperature through a fever to eventually kill the virus. Mother nature is raising the temperature of the planet, giving Earth a fever until it kills off enough of humanity, which is the virus causing the climate change and ecological disaster we see all around us.

The financial cost of Mother Nature's cure will also be excruciatingly painful; click here to read more about the insane financial costs of not fixing climate change ourselves.

 

 

How long will it take for Mother Nature to kill off enough of us to save the rest of us?

Mother Nature's reactions to climate change will keep killing more and more of humanity until:

a. There are so few of us left that greenhouse gases going into the atmosphere are no longer increasing and are going down, or

b. Our governments stop all additional greenhouse gases from entering the atmosphere, forcing the current greenhouse gas levels back to 350 ppm. (Carbon 350 ppm is a sustainable atmospheric carbon level for the survival of humanity.)

It will be either Mother Nature or our governments that save the last of humanity. Unfortunately, it is highly unlikely our governments will react in time to save all but a small portion of humanity. (Click here for 30+ reasons why it is highly unlikely our governments will act until the very last moment to save but a small portion of humanity.)

Unless our governments mass mobilize and come close to the 2025 targets soon, and we do not cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, the critical point where Mother Nature stops managing rising greenhouse gases by killing us off will likely be after 2050 in the second half of the 21st century. On the other hand, if we get close to the 2025 targets soon, Mother Nature might stop killing us off far closer to 2045-2055.

Unfortunately, Mother Nature may likely keep killing us off with more intense global heating consequences beyond just the number of us that "she" needs to kill off to stop the remaining population from adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, predicting helpful natural system tipping points and feedback correction timeframes is not currently possible with high levels of certainty for complex natural systems interacting with human systems.

The natural kill-off process is not a theory. We have already seen Mother Nature's global heating kill-off counteractions. Mother Nature is already directly or indirectly killing off tens of millions of us each year from only our current level of global heating consequences. 

The blue line in the first illustration below represents rising primary and secondary runaway global heating consequences. These rising global heating consequences will cause the climate and other systems within Mother Nature to keep killing off more and more humans (the green line) until humans cannot overheat the Earth by burning more fossil fuels.

About mid-century (2050) is when we estimate the lines will cross, and about half of humanity will have perished, and the Mother Nature-driven die-off will start slowing down.

 

In the second illustration below, one can see that the more humanity dies on the green line, the more global fossil fuel use will naturally fall on the blue line.

 

 

How will long-delayed, dialectical human system counteractions be an essential but later secondary force helping save humanity from a climate change-driven total extinction?

"When the pain going forward is less than the pain of where you are, people will change." Unknown

Humanity will collectively and eventually reach what could be called the climate change "rock bottom" point. This is where the level of climate change pain of where humanity is currently (experiencing the many climate change consequences) will be more than the pain of making the required changes needed to save what is left of humanity. 

Below are the wise, necessary, and significant human systems counteractions (dialectical research and responses) that will eventually occur as runaway global heating worsens and its costs, suffering, pain, and deaths rise exponentially to the final level that pushes humanity to its collective climate change "rock bottom" transition point.

But here is the bad news. Neither individually nor cumulatively will these human counteractions occur in time or at sufficient levels to save about half of humanity from mass extinction by mid-century. (Please note, the following list of human system counteractions is mostly the long-delayed climate remedial actions that were required and should have been started and done six decades ago.)

Additionally, the following human counteractions by and of themselves alone will also not happen in time to save us from near-total extinction. Too many unavoidable and severe primary and secondary climate change consequences are already in the pipeline. This is primarily because, for the last 60 years, our governments have been so ineffective in resolving the global heating emergency because of the global fossil fuel cartel's disinformation and coercive undue influence campaigns on our politicians.

The human system dialectical counteractions below will be significantly affected by the contextual, relational, procedural, and transformational changes that the primary and secondary climate change consequences will cause by severely disrupting humanity's existing governmental, economic, social, and food supply-dependent ecological systems.

Below are the human systems counteractions that will eventually be enacted to address the intensifying human die-off and many other painful consequences of climate change. They will also eventually help lower our overall global fossil fuel use and help save at least some smaller part of humanity.

The following human system actions, reactions, and counteractions are not necessarily in the priority order or sequence. They will occur as humanity wakes up to the climate change extinction emergency and desperately tries to save itself. Just so you know, the order in which these will be done is unknown and depends upon circumstances in each nation and how fast and severely the climate catastrophe unfolds.

Eventually: 

1. The global insurance and reinsurance companies canceling or failing to accept insurance policies in high-risk and known climate change danger areas will become a major force in getting our governments to act over the next few decades. Their angry citizens will be in the streets screaming that they can't sell or buy their own or desired homes because they are in expanding climate change high-risk zones and are now uninsurable.

Insurance and reinsurance companies worldwide will cancel or not accept ANY new home mortgages, business, home insurance, or crop failure policies in the expanding high-risk climate change areas. Global insurance and reinsurance companies know they cannot survive the hundreds of trillions of dollars in climate change damages from now until 2050. They have no alternative but to eliminate and transfer the risks and losses back to the governments for any policy that could expose them to the ever-expanding dangers and losses of accelerating climate change. 

Climate change-related damages are not acts of God or random accidents. The global fossil fuel cartel knowingly created the many climate change consequences by using behind-the-scenes undue influence, censorship, and disinformation campaigns to stop governments from enforcing the needed global fossil fuel reductions. This expensive cartel disinformation and influence campaign also kept the world's citizens from demanding the necessary fossil fuel reductions for over 60 years. 

2. Successful lawsuits against the global fossil fuel cartel for climate change damages will accelerate to such massive levels that the fossil fuel production industry can no longer function as it had previously. They will also become a major force to slow and then reverse the climate change emergency. A steady and steep fossil fuel production reduction will result because the cartel will be forced to pay for all the damages its products and actions have produced. As of 10.19.23, there are over 2,000 climate change damage lawsuits worldwide against the cartel. 

By 2027, it is estimated there will be as many as 8,000 lawsuits, and by 2030, 20,000 lawsuits. Lawsuits against the global fossil fuel cartel will potentially and eventually have a far more significant and successful result in stopping the fossil fuel industry from continuing to harm humanity and biological life than all of the public protests that have thus far taken place worldwide. (We strongly recommend you read the Climate Justice Now program, which starts here. This program contains a list of law firms suing the cartel for climate change damage and tips on how to get your climate damage lawsuit going.

3. humanity will experience new climate catastrophes that are so extensive, intense, and costly, and humanity collectively will experience sufficient fear, pain, loss, and climate change danger awareness that they will finally demand (through their common political will) that their politicians act to fix the fears and losses from accelerating climate change. (We estimate this public demand will only happen after a single or several closely spaced climate change catastrophes occur, costing about 1/2 trillion dollars each and killing upwards of 100,000 or more people.) 

4. The world's citizens will angrily demand that their politicians immediately vote for honest climate change remedial actions as described on this page. (They will need to take protest actions like those described on this page.)

5. The world's wealthiest nations will eventually understand that the climate change emergency is a no-win game for everyone. Their powerful resistance (inertia) to losing their significant financial advantages will finally motivate and compel them to act to fix the climate to protect their economic interests and advantages. (For more on why wealthy individuals and nations will finally act on climate change, click here.)

6. Governments that still have functioning legal systems will begin expediting highly public criminal prosecutions of all individuals and companies shown to be involved in implementing, executing, facilitating, or enabling the climate change nightmare. Severe punishments will be imposed on those found guilty.

Those individuals' and companies' actions will be tried under new and old laws as crimes against humanity and genocide. Governments that still have the death penalty will execute many of those found guilty because of raging survivor anger and demands for justice for those who chose the wrong side of history.

7. Our governments will finally pass, verify, and enforce laws that radically reduce fossil fuel use to get close to the 2025 global targets or the updated targets that are honestly needed at the time our governments act effectively. These new and enforceable correct target laws will significantly help reduce global fossil fuel use.

8. Our governments will create revenue-neutral, Fee and Dividend-based fossil fuel reduction programs. These Fee and Dividend-based programs will significantly disincentivize using fossil fuels and greatly incentivize greener energy use. 

9. We will discover and use, at the proper scale, sustainable and appropriate technologies that are considerably different from what most people understand as new technologies. Once scaled up, these appropriate technologies will help us transition away from fossil fuels and possibly even help us remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere in effective and sustainable ways. (Please note that effective and proven appropriate technology for carbon capture and removal is most likely decades away.) 

10. We will build more non-fossil fuel alternative energy generation systems to replace the current fossil fuel energy generation.

11. We will add more natural sequestration systems to remove more fossil fuel pollution from our atmosphere.

12. We will better protect and preserve existing natural carbon sequestration systems.

13. Our governments will pass and enforce laws that will make fossil fuels nearly impossible to use for all but a few minimal and essential uses. 

14. Billionaires and the world's wealthiest corporations will eventually see that it is in their self-interest to use their political and financial influence to force the world's politicians and governments to do what is necessary to save and salvage some part of humanity by enacting immediate radical fossil fuel reductions globally and the other emergency "save and salvage" steps as described on this page.

15. The world's citizens will angrily demand that the world's billionaires use their influence to force the politicians to immediately vote for honest climate change remedial actions as described on this page. (To get the billionaires to do this will require citizens to take the actions described on this page.)

16. To ensure we never have this problem again, current governments (or those that survive the post-fossil fuel great global collapse) will need to evolve new, more sustainability-friendly economic and political systems and laws. These new economic and political systems and laws must change the current global capitalism-based" values paradigm of over-consumption, over-population, exporting industrial pollution to the public sector, waste, overshoot, and other unsustainable ecological over-exploitation. Global society will need to radically change its values on how it sees nature from something to be dominated and exploited to something to be harmonized with and lived with in balance in sustainable ways.

17. Because of the unimaginable pain and trauma of the runaway global heating's cumulative adverse effects and the coming global collapse of many critical areas, the survivors will find a new, more equitable, and just way to manage the world's resources and assets for survivors for the sustainable benefit of ALL humanity and not just for a few powerful and privileged nations or billionaires. Our world will look very different after the great global collapse. (To see the many step-by-step processes of a climate change consequence-driven great global collapse, click here.)

18. The net result of our steadily accumulating individual fossil fuel reduction actions can help make some difference in how much humanity survives after 2050. Your individual actions play an important role in reducing fossil fuel use to save as much of humanity as possible. In many areas of our website, we have emphasized our government's critical first and primary role as being the most effective and necessary tool to enforce the 2025 global fossil fuel reductions. While that is a true priority, it also plays an essential role in the ongoing growth of individual-driven fossil fuel reductions.

While individual fossil fuel reductions by hundreds of millions of us are presently too little and too late to save about half of humanity before about 2050, they still can play an important role in what remaining percentage of humanity survives after 2050. After humanity has hit the climate change catastrophe "rock bottom" described above, the net result of our steadily accumulating individual fossil fuel reduction actions could help make a critical difference for as much as 30% of humanity surviving after 2050. (This 30 percent saved includes us doing all of the other human systems' dialectical climate change counteractions described in this section.)

If individual fossil fuel reduction actions do not continue to grow significantly, and we do not do most of the human system dialectical climate change counteractions described above, as few as five percent or less of humanity may survive until about 2070. This also implies an important role for continuing individual actions to reduce fossil fuel use. Click here to see the actions needed to reduce individual fossil fuel use.

As a rule, the worse the climate consequence "inaction costs" of runaway global heating get (i.e., financial losses, ecological damage, human suffering, and deaths), the faster and harder governments and others will counter-react and enact the above list of human counteractions to further slow the runaway global heating extinction emergency to prevent it becoming irreversible total human extinction.

In other words, as history has repeatedly demonstrated, humanity will finally change its behaviors when the pain of going forward with those new changes is less than the pain of staying where it is.

In the illustration below, the green line represents the rising and intensifying consequences of runaway global warming. The blue line represents the locked-in relationship of dependable, continuous, faster, and harder reactions to global warming consequences, using all possible human counteractions in lockstep with the rising painful consequences ofwarm runaway global ing.

 

 

Yes, the above human counteractions will be too little and too late by themselves to save humanity. But when added to Mother Nature's far larger and more dominant horrible kill-off counteractions, they provide the additional opportunity to save even more post-mid-century humanity because the above human counteractions will also contribute to and help slow and lower our rising global temperature and new carbon going into our atmosphere. 

When all of the above and far less powerful secondary human counteractions are added to the natural counteractions of Mother Nature, they will act as an additional counteracting brake on rising global temperatures and atmospheric carbon.

These human counteractions will help Mother Nature ensure that humanity will not go beyond near-total extinction. But even without the additional human counteractions, the good news is that Mother Nature's massive kill-off alone will save us from a climate change-driven total extinction. The above human counteractions (which will eventually occur during the collapse) are just extra insurance and can help save more of us sooner.

Unfortunately, there is still this awful news to deal with. All of the above natural and human counteractions will still not be enough or be able to be scaled up in time to save about half of humanity from going extinct by mid-century in what will be an excruciatingly horrible and painful process. This means that whoever survives the mid-century extinction will face centuries to thousands of years of deprivation and suffering before Mother Nature can fully rebalance herself and get the atmospheric carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide levels down to where our global temperature goes back to a level better suited for optimal human existence and reproduction.

 

 

How much of humanity will perish and be left after mid-century?

At this point, you may wonder how much of humanity Mother Nature's counteractions could save. Here are some estimates.

If we fail to radically reduce current global fossil fuel use and get close to the 2025 global targets as soon as possible:

1. Some believe Mother Nature will keep killing us off until we get back down to what is known as the Earth's sustainable carrying capacity of about 1.5 billion people.

2. Others believe we will be lucky to have 5-10% or less of humanity still living in 2080 to 2100. This very high die-off level is because global heating will keep rising for decades, even after Mother Nature has killed enough of us to stop adding more carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide to our atmosphere. Moreover, global heating will continue to rise for another 2-3 decades even after we entirely stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere because of pre-existing global heating momentum already committed within the climate system. 

3. The Club of Rome-related studies projects there will be between 2.5 billion people, according to the latest analysis, projecting about 1.5 billion people left by 2100, if you also include all current climate change factors.

4. We at Job One believe that after humanity misses the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets significantly and humanity has hit the climate change catastrophe "rock bottom" (described above), the net result of Mother Nature killing off so many of us added to humanity successfully executing many of the human system climate change counteractions listed above, can make the difference so that as many as 30% of humanity will survive after 2050. 

If after humanity misses the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets significantly, and humanity has hit the climate change catastrophe "rock bottom" (described above), added to the net result of Mother Nature killing off so many of us, and we do not execute most of the human system climate change counteractions described above, as few as one to two percent of humanity will survive until about 2070. 

If we fail to get close to the 2025 targets, and if humanity fails to collectively hit climate change "rock bottom" soon enough, forcing its governments to finally act along with all of the human interactions getting started as quickly as possible, it is critical to realize that the conditions for the after-mid-century survivors will be so bad most of them will wish they had not survived. (Click here to see the primary and secondary global heating-related consequences they will experience if we fail to get close to the 2025 targets.) 

Once you have reviewed those horrendous consequences, there will be little doubt that the only viable solution for humanity's future is to get as close as possible to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.

 

 

When will our governments finally act in a way that honestly fixes the climate change emergency?

From all of the above, one begins to see there is no fixed date when our governments will finally act to fix the climate change emergency. Still, it will be determined by a series of painful climate change-related consequences suffered by much of humanity continually driving humanity toward its climate change "rock bottom" transition point, which will determine that governmental action date. 

Using the body of current climate change research and all of the Club of Rome-related studies, our best estimate of that date is sometime between 2035 and 2045; our governments will finally get serious about cutting global fossil use to the required levels. We strongly recommend reading our three recent Club of Rome climate change-related global collapse studies for background research and the most likely global collapse timetables. The conclusion drawn from these three articles is that by about 2035, humanity will start to experience several major global catastrophes, instabilities, and critical system collapses because of multiple major factors converging simultaneously (industrial output, food production, resource availability, population, pollution, and climate consequences) and that will continue to intensify until our governments act.

We finished a spellbinding three-article series in January of 2023 on what happens when you add current climate research (like the above,) climate change extinction tipping point, and climate change feedback loop information into the four well-documented previous studies on the Club of Rome/MIT five factors that are most likely to bring about global collapse. (The Club of Rome/MIT five factors are industrial output, food production, resource availability, population, and pollution. The previous five Club of Rome/MIT studies did not adequately include recent climate change research.)

The last article in this Club of Rome series has graphs (like the one below) that show how the updated prediction timeframes for the global collapse of these five critical factors have grown significantly shorter when you add climate change consequence factors and timeframes into the other four previous studies. 

Here is our 2023 Job One for Humanity updated graph with current climate change information added, and where humanity does not get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. The following things in the illustration below are essential regarding humanity's time frames relating to survival and collapse. Notice that around 2025 to 2030, critical survival factors start steep declines. From 2030 to 2040, even more crucial factors will move into steep declines and intersect during this period.

These two periods, from 2025 to 2030 and from 2030 to 2040, will dramatically increase human suffering and death. 2040 to 2050 will be even worse, with almost all critical survival factors in steep decline, except pollution, which will also worsen things.

We have predicted that by 2050, about half of humanity will be dead. The period from 2050 to 2070 will be the most dangerous if our governments do not work with Mother Nature and eventually help reduce global fossil fuel use. If our governments miss their second opportunity to save about half of humanity, we could have anywhere from 30% to as little as 2% of humanity surviving past 2070.

 

 

Click here to go to the first of these three articles. It will also link you to the other two articles. Once you have also finished the Club of Rome articles, you know much more about the processes and timeframes of global collapse than 99.9999% of humanity.

 

A helpful and balancing perspective on Mother Nature's coming mass die-off and widespread global collapse

Whenever a species within an ecosystem exceeds the needed resources of that ecosystem or destroys its critical ecosystem so that it is no longer capable of sustainably producing all of the resources that the species needs, Mother Nature "helps" that species die off sufficiently so that its population comes back into balance with the ecosystem resources that support it.

Humanity is just another species within the species of Mother Nature on Earth. Humanity has not managed its population, which has grown far beyond what the Earth can sustainably support. Not only has humanity's population grown beyond the needed sustainable resources to support its population, but it has also wholly polluted and destroyed the ecosystems that support it, so these damaged ecosystems can no longer support the needs of an ever-growing humanity.

Mother Nature will soon do to humanity what she has been doing to every other species that cannot migrate to a new ecosystem and is out of balance with its ecosystem. She will find a way to cause a mass die-off in that species until its population matches the resources available in its ecosystem.

Because humanity has been utterly unable to manage its population, resources, and pollution properly, humanity now faces an unavoidable widespread great die-off and collapse of human and natural systems. This mass die-off will facilitate a great rebalancing and a potential great rebirth for what is left of humanity after the process runs its full course. Humanity will experience the effect of its unwise collective actions.

This great Die-off and collapse process will most likely continue until a new balance in the human population has been achieved, not because our governments have acted in time to prevent the great die-off and collapse. In many ways, this should be seen as just another natural evolutionary process. 

While there is not much we can do until the population-to-resource balance (the Overshoot) is re-established. We can understand its cause and effects and be compassionate with ourselves and others experiencing the suffering, financial loss, and death that will be the signposts of this natural process. 

The potential good news here is that if, at some point, our remaining governments can finally enforce the required climate laws and they do it in time, there will be enough of us left so the world does not go into total extinction and a new dark age. Best of all, if our governments finally act, we have the potential and opportunity to create a Great Global Rebirth from the painful wisdom humanity will have acquired from this ordeal.

As we watch this painful die-off and collapse process unfold, we should be grateful that Mother Nature's natural processes are there to save us (at least a much smaller part of humanity) from ourselves and the ignorance, incompetence, and the greed of our governments, politicians and corporate executives.

For more information on Mother Nature's evolutionary processes especially the often necessary "collapse and rebirth" cycle for non-adaptive situations not paying attention, "listening" to, or using the situation's natural feedback information, click here.

Never forget that continuous collapse and rebirth are entirely natural parts of the Earth's long-term evolutionary history. Click here for a good explanation of this time-tested and proven evolutionary principle.

 

A "Big Picture" Way of Seeing Our Climate Change Consequence Timetables as Waves 

Because our governments and politicians have entirely failed to protect us from the worst consequences of climate change, we must manage those consequences primarily by ourselves. Accordingly, it will be helpful to see your climate change future preparations and adaptations in the following three time frame phases:

Phase One Wave: The Great Die-off and Great Collapse 

This great die-off and collapse will have several stages:

Stage One: From now until the end of 2025, climate change consequences will steadily rise in severity, frequency, and scale, but not so much that it will be hard to find the needed materials at reasonable costs to do the emergency preparations and adaptations you will need to do to protect yourself, your family, and your business. Some climate change consequences will double in their frequency, severity, and scale during these six years. (Click here to learn more about the crossed climate change tipping points that make this 2025 date so important.)

Stage Two: From 2025 to about 2031, climate change consequences will rise dramatically in severity, frequency, and scale, so much that as we approach 2031 it will be harder to find the needed materials at reasonable costs to do the emergency preparations and adaptations you will need to do to protect yourself, your family, and your business. Globally, deaths, financial losses, starvation, migrations, and other primary and secondary consequences of climate change will also rise dramatically. (Click here to learn more about the climate change tipping points that make this 2025-2031 date range so important.)

Stage Three: From 2031 to about 2050, climate change consequences will begin to rise exponentially in severity, frequency, and scale, so much that it will be all but impossible to find the needed materials at reasonable costs to do the emergency preparation and adaptations you will need to do to protect yourself, your family, and your business. (Click here if you doubt that about half of humanity will be dead from the combined primary and secondary consequences of our accelerating climate change.)

Globally, deaths, financial losses, starvation, migrations, and other primary and secondary consequences of climate change will also rise exponentially. (The processes and primary and secondary climate change consequences that will cause the first great die-off and collapse are described in detail on this page. For information about collapse and rebirth as a natural evolutionary process, see this page.)

Phase Two Wave: The Great Juncture, Turning Point, or Moment of Truth.

By 2050, to about 2070, about half of humanity will be already dead. If our governments act either before 2050 or in the early part of this 2050-2070 period, we still may be able to avoid near-total extinction and avoid having another 25% to 40% of the pre-2025 population die. If our governments act in time, we will save a significant part of the human population, and there is a good chance we can avoid a new dark age that could last for centuries. But if our governments do not act in time and there is only a tiny portion of humanity is left (20% or less, the probability of entering a new dark age is very high. (The human, governmental, and natural processes that could save as much as 50% of the remaining human population are described in detail on this page.)

Phase Three Wave: The Great Global Rebirth Possibilities.

If our governments do act in time (as described above and in detail here) and at least 25-50% of the population survives, the survivors of the greatest extinction and tragedy in human history will have unimaginable pain and trauma deeply ingrained into their psyches. Because of this global trauma, there is a strong likelihood that these painful collective memories will motivate the demand for massive changes in our human economic, social, political, and religious systems so that a climate change-triggered and enabled mass extinction event can never happen again.

To read about the many benefits and potential changes that can come about in this great global rebirth, we recommend first reading about the natural evolutionary process of going through a collapse and rebirth cycle found here and why it is not so bad from a big evolutionary perspective, and it is not the end of the world.

Next, we strongly recommend reading about the many possible benefits for human systems in a tremendous global rebirth when so many pre-existing power structures that were locked into the behaviors and ideas that destroyed most of humanity are no longer in power or functioning because of the Great Collapse. Here are these benefits for one of the most-read pages on our website.

 

If you still have doubts about what you are reading...

For many visitors to our uncensored climate change think tank's website, their biggest question after reading our climate change consequences and timetable forecasts is, "Why are your climate change forecasts so much worse than almost everything I hear in the media from my government, the educational environmental and climate change organizations, or the former world's leading authority on climate change, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC)? Click here for the five critical reasons that will fully answer your "why are our forecasts so much worse" question.

 

 

Please also consider becoming an annual member by clicking here and checking out the wonderful information and benefits that you will receive. We guarantee you will get more than you receive when you become a proud funder of our 100% publicly-funded not-for-profit climate change think tank.

 

Conclusion

We must make the most of our remaining limited opportunities and save and salvage whatever we can of humanity and our global civilization. 

Unfortunately, those who have predicted a climate change-driven total extinction and complete global collapse have not carefully considered the many natural and human dialectical counteractions that will occur. They have not carefully analyzed the climate change emergency from a dialectical meta-systematic viewpoint, which would allow them to see the climate emergency from 28 unique perspectives and down 2-3 levels of dialectical consequences and counteractions to those consequences.

From the above, it is clear that all is not hopeless, and a global heating-driven total extinction is not the most probable outcome of climate change and runaway global warming. On the contrary, the closer we get to the honest 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, the more of the post-mid-century population will be able to survive past mid-century. 

Conversely, the quality of life for those who survive the pre-mid-century unavoidable mass extinction process will be far more unbearable the longer it takes us to reach the critical 2025 global targets.

When you analyze and include all of the human "harmful" climate feedback loops and tipping points along with all of the counteracting and "helpful" natural (Mother Nature's) and human feedback loops and tipping points, you get a climate and human-connected system that should eventually "self" correct through a very painful and extremely high "cost" reactive process.

Today, many climate researchers and individuals have either omitted or deeply underestimated the effects of Newton's 3rd law on climate systems and their many subsystems. They have primarily ignored natural (Mother Nature's) and human system-driven counteractions, such as corrective actions and "helpful" climate system feedback loops and tipping points. 

Unfortunately, many of those who believe the current runaway global heating situation is hopeless have given up. Because they believe total extinction is inevitable, they do nothing substantive to fulfill their required 1/8 billionth critical part in getting their governments to act while humanity still has time to prevent total extinction. It is not difficult to see that giving up or promoting giving up, while failing to act effectively and educate, constitutes a grave ethical or moral failure.

Those individuals fail to see that the runaway global heating emergency is just another evolutionary opportunity that will force us to make the many economic, social, environmental, religious, and political changes that we will be forced to make anyway, sooner or later. 

Fortunately, the more profound dialectical evolutionary climate truth shines brightest. If we get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible, as much as half of humanity could survive the runaway global heating extinction emergency. This perspective is truly a realistic and worthwhile hope worth fighting for, sacrificing for, and working towards wholeheartedly.

Individuals or groups who continually sell you all is lost, surviving is just hopium, or we are ALL doomed because of the runaway global heating emergency have failed to properly:

a. account for,

b. use in their analysis, or

c. see the many compensatory dialectical counteractions of:

1. Newton's always dependable 3rd Law of thermodynamics, 

2. Mother Nature's natural counteraction to human mass extinction is the only thing that can and will scale up in lockstep with our accelerating global heating consequences. (Mother Nature's kill-off counteractions will be the primary, dominant, and most likely way that a portion of humanity will be able to survive the runaway global heating extinction emergency.) 

3. Humanity's eventual, contributing, and secondary counteraction measures to radically reduce global fossil fuel use to levels that will allow some of humanity to survive. But, unfortunately, those radical fossil fuel-reducing actions will not occur until humanity experiences levels of insane financial loss, personal suffering, social and political chaos, and accelerating death that is so large and unbearable that humanity has no choice but to fix the climate change nightmare, or everything dies!

4. Inertia (resistance to change) in the climate system and its subsystems, and inertia in our many human systems. For example, the world's wealthiest individuals and nations will eventually realize that the climate change emergency is a lose-lose situation for everyone. Their powerful resistance (inertia) to losing their significant financial advantages will ultimately motivate and compel them to act to mitigate climate change, protecting their economic interests and advantages. (For more on why wealthy individuals and nations will finally act on climate change, click here.)

5. They have failed to consider the accelerating climate emergency from the 28 dialectical perspectives that are critical for analyzing complex adaptive systems, such as the climate and human reactions at meta-systemic levels. These 28 perspectives illuminate the process of evolutionary dialectical counteractions and interactions. (These 28 dialectical perspectives are described in Otto Laske's landmark book Measuring Hidden Dimensions of Human Systems, Volume 2.) 

6. Please always remember that continuous collapse and rebirth are entirely natural parts of the Earth's long-term evolutionary history. Click here for a good explanation of this time-tested and proven evolutionary principle.

Furthermore, we believe it is morally and ethically grossly irresponsible for anyone to promote a highly probable vision of a climate change-driven total extinction and distract people from continuous, direct action to get our governments to prevent this outcome. Such action is especially reprehensible, given that we still have the rapidly diminishing option to avoid total extinction and save as many people as possible during the near-total extinction processes described above.

Below, please see how poorly we are currently doing regarding atmospheric carbon levels (CO2) in getting close to the required 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.

 

We leave you with this balancing quote from the Post Carbon Institute:

“In reality, there are degrees of collapse, and history shows that the process has usually taken decades and sometimes centuries to unfold, often in stair-steps punctuated by periods of partial recovery. Further, it may be possible to intervene in collapse to improve outcomes—for ourselves, our communities, our species, and thousands of other species.

After the collapse of the Roman Empire, medieval Irish monks may have “saved civilization” by memorizing and transcribing ancient texts. Could we, with planning and motivation, do as much for the best of our civilization?

Will the new ClimateSafe Villages project be like the monasteries of old?

And finally, indigenous communities around the world are frequently predicting that Mother Nature is just about to cleanse the planet from those things harming the environment and so many of her species.

 

What you can do with today about our climate change-driven nightmare and your and humanity's survival

In this article, we said the coming widespread global collapse and breakdown process would be a long, excruciating, and painful process for humanity to endure and recover from. The climate change-driven widespread collapse and breakdown process, which we all will go through before humanity's climate change-related recovery, is described in incredible step-by-step, phase-by-phase detail in this link.

 

We strongly recommend you read this link to know the step-by-step, phase-by-phase global nightmare that is coming and primarily unavoidable due to our 60 years of failing to fix climate change after we were warned by our best scientists what would happen if we did not act 60 years ago. Once you have read this link, it will help you understand why you must immediately start preparing for and adapting to the soon-arriving and exceedingly challenging times ahead.

Once you have read the preceding link, you also should be highly motivated to click here to go to our comprehensive Plan B climate change preparation, adaptation, resilience, relocation, and recovery plan, which will:

a. help protect and preserve your loved ones, businesses, and assets.

b. help you act in effective ways to get our governments to act before it is too late for most all of humanity.

Click here for our recommended action timeframe page for how soon we must act, depending on location and other circumstances.

Click here if you are a victim of climate change damage or loss and you want to get financial and other forms of restitution for the damages you have suffered.

Click Here Now if You Are Ready to Vote if the Global Fossil fuel Cartel is Guilty of Causing Climate change and Financially Responsible for all Climate change Loss and Damage.

Important Additional Reading

After you finish this article, please be sure to read its companion article called, the Climageddon Feedback Scenario. It will help you understand and "see" the climate change emergency at the level of a climate change researcher and analyst.

Please also click here to read about relevant human history, planetary evolution, the many extinction threats, and facts to add more of a "big picture" balance to your perspective on why total human extinction is very unlikely.

Important Technical Notes:

 

1. 1. This article resulted from a new dialectical meta-systemic and system theory-based analysis of the most recent climate research viewing the climate as a complex adaptive system. On Earth, nothing takes place in a vacuum. For every action, there is some counteraction. For every action (consequence) you have read about on this website, there could also be various counteractions from both "Mother Nature" and our many human systems and organizations. All possible counteractions must always be carefully weighed, considered, and included in any legitimate problem threat and risk analysis. 
   2. This article was based on a careful re-examination of current relevant climate change research and the contexts, processes, relationships, and transformations occurring within the climate's dynamic, interconnected, and interdependent systems and subsystems. During this process, we discovered that some natural and many human system counteractions (some in helpful climate feedback loops and tipping points) were not adequately considered or weighted adequately within our earlier climate research and also within other climate change researcher climate and global heating consequence predictions and timetables.  
   3. If we reach an increase of 4-6 degrees Celsius in average global temperature, we will experience vast releases of stored carbon and methane from our oceans, soils, trees, and coastal ocean shelves. But, it is highly improbable we will reach these temperature levels because of the natural and human counteractions described above. As temperatures rise, the human die-off will be so steep that there will not be enough of us left burning fossil fuels to be able to reach a 4-6 degrees Celsius level. For the last six decades, it has taken about 25 additional carbon parts per million (ppm) to be added to the atmosphere to raise the average global temperature by 1/2 degree Fahrenheit. (One degree Celcius is equal to about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.) That means that at the current level of adding three new carbon ppm per year to our atmosphere, it takes 8+ years to raise the average global temperature by 1/2 degree Fahrenheit. We have presently raised the average global temperature by 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. This means we have another 2.8 degrees of Celsius to go before entering a hazardous area for total extinction. Getting to 4 degrees Celcius will take about 40-50 years. By then, much of humanity will be long dead, and our greenhouse gas levels will have stopped rising (possibly even dropping a bit), preventing us from reaching 4 degrees Celsius. For the sake of wild argument, even if we cross additional global heating tipping points that cause a 50% reduction in the total time left to prevent reaching 4 degrees Celsius, so many of us will die off in the next 20-30 years, we will still not add enough additional fossil fuel pollutants in parts per million to the atmosphere to reach the 4 degrees Celsius level.It is important to note that if we get close to a 3-degree Celsius increase in global temperature, it will be all but impossible to stop humanity from reaching 4°C.
   4. Anyone saying that the climate science shows that All of humanity will invariably go extinct from runaway global warming consequences does not understand there are no 100% certainties in science because new discoveries are constantly qualified and adjusted by older research.
   5. Current dialectical meta-systemic analysis of recent climate research does not support the wild predictions of a climate-driven total human extinction in 10, 20, 30, or even 40 years. We have time left to act, and at worst, we will only suffer a near-total extinction, but we need everyone immediately rowing in the same direction at full strength to minimize future human extinction losses and collapse-related suffering. 

Other Collapse-Related Studies

1. 1. According to a 2020 study published in Scientific Reports, if deforestation and resource consumption (aka overshoot) continue at current rates, they could culminate in a "catastrophic collapse in human population" and possibly "an irreversible collapse of our civilization" in the next 20 to 40 years.
   2. If we miss the 2025 targets by a lot, there will just be far fewer of us (near-total extinction) than if we got close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. If we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets altogether and for considerably longer than the next ten years, then there is a strong possibility that we could eventually go totally extinct because we have entered the fourth and fifth phases of irreversible runaway global heating discussed on this page. 
   3. According to the most optimistic scenario provided by another study, the chance that human civilization survives is less than 10%. (See Nafeez, Ahmed. "Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Several Decades". Vice. Retrieved 2 August 2021. Also see Bologna, M.; Aquino, G. (2020). "Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis." Scientific Reports. 10 (7631): 7631.                  doi:10.1038/s41598-020-63657-6. PMC 7203172. PMID 32376879.) 
   4. The gold standard for collapse studies and research is found in the book The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph A Tainter. The Collapse of Complex Societies, along with the book Overshoot by Willian R Catton Jr., is the absolute minimum required reading to think rationally and comprehensibly about the causes and issues surrounding global collapse and mass extinction.

For answers to all of your questions about climate change and global warming, click here for our new climate change FAQ. It has over one hundred of the most asked questions and answers about climate change and our future.

 

Last updated 10.24.23

Prologue

If you have not done so already, please read this essential page before doing elevator pitches. We have discovered that it is best to break the climate change progress and safety illusion as soon as possible to be an effective climate change educator. This is because 99.9% of people do not understand how bad the climate change situation actually is because of what they have been hearing for years about climate change from the government and in the media.

The best way to break this illusion is to have them examine and learn about the global fossil fuel cartel's climate change disinformation and fossil fuel reduction obstruction campaigns found on this page. The new facts on this page and its links will make individuals seriously doubt what they have been told about the climate change emergency in the media and from the government.

Unless individuals understand they have been cleverly, consistently and intentionally deceived by false fossil fuel cartel generated climate disinformation (which they previously believed was true), they will not be able to easily or quickly digest the correct facts about our current climate change emergency and accordingly they will not be motivated to do anything about it. (This proven deception-exposing process is known as "false data stripping." It greatly expedites getting at and to the truth.)

Telling people as soon as possible that almost everything they have heard about climate change consequences and timeframes has been underestimated by 20-40% or more, and then exposing the fossil fuel cartel's disinformation and obstruction campaigns is effective. 

Sooner or later, you will have to wake others up to the big lies they are still continuously hearing from their governments, the media, and most environmental groups, that are also unknowingly using global fossil fuel cartel-infected disinformation.

When you directly confront fossil fuel cartel disinformation and obstruction early in your climate educational actions, you are also using the principle found in the martial art called Aikido. The principle is simple. You use the energy, the direction, and the power of the attacker and the attack directed at you as the primary way to overcome the attacker. When you bring the hidden fossil fuel cartel disinformation into disinfecting light, you use the peaceful, wise, and very successful principle of the Akido martial art to disempower and break the disinformation cycle.

Additionally, when most people find out they have been systematically deceived on a life-and-death issue that will also cause them great financial loss, they not only become angry, they become highly motivated. Please break the fossil fuel cartel disinformation cycle with everyone in your network.

Introduction

Here is our "elevator pitch" of the climate change and runaway global heating education movement. An elevator pitch is a Silicon Valley-originated term. It is a short several-minute statement about what is essential about something you should be involved in. 

It can be delivered in about the same time it would take for you to share an elevator with someone in a tall building, hence the elevator pitch. It is designed to capture attention with a critical mystery so the person will eventually want to know more.

There are three elevator pitches below; pick the ones you think would work best for you. Remember that everyone you speak to will potentially speak to others and help fix this climate change nightmare.

Once you have completed an elevator pitch successfully and the person seems interested, send them to go to the Job One for Humanity website and ask them to sign up for more information; we help keep them interested and involved from there. If possible, keep in touch with them and follow up if they have questions. 

 

 

 

 

Elevator Pitch One: Are You Aware of These Basic But Essential Climate Change Facts

Ask people questions to start the climate change conversation. Here are some powerful questions to open a conversation; they are best asked in the order given. These questions are designed to relate climate change and fossil fuel use to something they already know is very bad, pollution. It is important to appeal indirectly to their emotions, particularly in questions three and four.

It is important to understand who are the best prospects to give an elevator climate pitch to and who is not! Before doing any elevator pitches, read this page for critical tips on success.

1. The following can also be emailed to your networks.

"Over the last sixty years, almost every consequence and timeframe we have been told about climate change from our governments, the media, and even most all environmental groups has been underestimated by 20 to 40% or even more. These groups have also unknowingly spread other dangerous climate change disinformation designed to make you feel safe and that we are making climate change progress when neither is true.

If you want to discover the uncensored and actual climate change facts or how this underestimation and disinformation happened, click here to learn how you have been systematically deceived by the global fossil fuel cartel about climate change for over sixty years."

2. Did you know that climate change is dangerous and deadly air pollution caused by humanity burning fossil fuels? (Continuing to burn additional fossil fuels creates an ever thicker blanket of carbon and other greenhouse gas pollution (methane and nitrous oxide) in our atmosphere, trapping ever-increasing levels of heat on Earth.) 

3. Did you know that fossil fuel burning air pollution, directly or indirectly, causes record-breaking; heatwaves, heat domes, droughts, hurricanes, cyclones, tornados, floods and flooding, rain bombs, wind storms [Derechos], dust storms, wildfires, wildfire smoke events, unseasonable cold spells, and other abnormal and unseasonal weather?

4. Did you know that heat-increasing polluting greenhouse gases, like carbon, the largest one, remain in our atmosphere for centuries to thousands of years? This long-term persistence of carbon in our atmosphere means that the relatively stable weather you experienced when you were younger is now gone forever, or at least until all of the additional fossil fuel-burning carbon, which we have been polluting our atmosphere with since the beginning of the industrial revolution has been removed (hundreds to thousands of years from now.) 

5. Did you know that not only is the relative stability of the climate of your younger memories gone forever, every day, as humanity burns more fossil fuels (which adds even more greenhouse gas pollution to our atmosphere,) we will continue to break new records and make today's existing climate change problems and weather significantly worse in our own future and for the future four children and future generations? 

 

Elevator Pitch Two: The Climate Change Emergency is Much Worse Than You Are being Told

Only when we can finally see the climate change emergency as it truly is will we be able to fix it. The following elevator speech contains the highly probable and almost certain most essential facts about our current climate change emergency. 

It is important to understand who are the best prospects to give an elevator climate pitch to and who is not! Before doing any elevator pitches, read this page for critical tips on success.

Here it is:

"I have a couple of quick questions. I would love to hear your opinion. Do you believe that the global fossil fuel cartel might try to buy off politicians with huge campaign donations to prevent fossil fuel use reductions and protect their massive profits? Do you believe that politicians might lie to you about how bad climate change will get to protect their cushy jobs and not your best interests?

(Listen to their answer, and if they say yes, and are open to the idea that current climate change information might be being manipulated, continue with the rest of the pitch.)

Since you believe that is possible, some painful climate change facts have been hidden from you through both censorship and underestimation by the global fossil fuel cartel, your politicians, and your governments.

Here are those quick facts:

1. Our governments have squandered six decades and have totally failed to resolve the climate change emergency. Because of this gross government failure, we have already locked ourselves into the first phase of runaway global heating.

2. If we keep going as we are now, sometime between 2025 and 2031, we will cross an atmospheric carbon pollution threshold level of 425-450 ppm. This is the level where humanity enters the second phase of runaway global heating. 

3. When we pass this carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, we accelerate the processes of our own extinction even faster because:

a. Climate change's consequences will radically increase in frequency, severity, and scale.

b. We will trigger additional amplifying climate feedback loops at faster rates. And,

c. We will soon cross the second (of four) extinction-accelerating climate tipping points.

4. Entering the second phase of runaway global heating will also cause the inescapable climate consequence of about half of humanity dying by about mid-century. 

5. The good news is we can still save the surviving portion of humanity past mid-century from near-total extinction (occurring about 2050-2080.)

6. To protect the possible post-mid-century surviving remnants of humanity, our governments must act now and get close to reaching the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. These honest global fossil fuel reduction targets require ALL developed countries (including China and India) to compel their citizens to reduce ALL fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025.

7. What will you do to prevent this nightmare from happening?" Have you heard about the Job One for Humanity Climate Change Emergency Plan? It will help mobilize our governments, help protect individuals and businesses, and help individuals safely prepare for and adapt to the many catastrophic climate consequences we can no longer avoid!

Please use the above unsettling global warming "elevator pitch" whenever possible to open conversations on the climate emergency. Then, when they ask you for more information to explain or justify the pitch, please give them the (JobOneforHumanity.org) website or get their email address and send them the link to the essential climate facts that will explain the facts in detail and with documentation. 

The above elevator pitch should make new people so curious that they will want to read your email link (or go to our website) to discover how possible what you said could be. This new elevator speech is intentionally meant to disrupt the ignorance and complacency surrounding the painful, actual facts of our runaway global heating extinction emergency. 

Try it out and watch the reactions. Even though a good portion of individuals will ignore further research, it plants a seed in their minds so that when they see the next set of climate disasters unfolding, they will remember what you said to them. 

Besides locally discussing the climate elevator pitch below, please feel free to email or post it online (with its links) anywhere you like. You can print it out as a handout as well.

 

Elevator Pitch Three: The Global Fossil Fuel Cartel is censoring and distorting Critical Climate Facts Needed to Fix the Climate Change Emergency 

Like in pitch two, ask the person the following questions:

1. Do you believe the global fossil fuel cartel might try to buy off politicians with huge campaign donations to prevent fossil fuel use reductions and protect their massive profits? 

2. Do you believe politicians might lie to you about how bad climate change will get to protect their cushy jobs and not your best interests?

(Listen to their answer; if they seem unsure or dubious that current climate change information might be being manipulated, use the pitch below but deliver it in your own words. Use as much or as little of the following as you think it is necessary to open the person to understand and become open to that almost everything they have heard about climate change from the media, the government, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) and even most environmental groups has been underestimated by 20-40% because of the hidden and insidious global fossil fuel cartel tactics. 

It is important to understand who are the best prospects to give an elevator climate pitch to and who is not! Before doing any elevator pitches, read this page for critical tips on success.

I believe that the global fossil fuel cartel is the dominant hidden and invisible hand that distorts, underestimates, and unduly influences the climate change information you receive from your government, the media, and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC)! The underhanded climate censorship-enabling actions of the global fossil fuel cartel are the over-arching reason our governments have not fixed the climate change emergency over the last sixty-plus years. 

Let me explain.

To open your mind to begin to clearly see the hidden and invisible hand that censors and distorts almost all climate change information you are receiving, it is useful to cover some history that everyone already knows to be true. The global cigarette industry has a proven record of ten decades of successful misinformation, disinformation, false cigarette health risk studies, and funding of "independent" think tanks to produce questionable research saying smoking was not dangerous. The cigarette industry also has an extensive public record of engaging in many undue influence and government regulation delaying tactics. 

Like the cigarette industry's tactics, the far better-funded global fossil fuel cartel's disinformation, regulation-delaying practices, and other tactics have successfully kept uncensored climate change facts and solutions from you, our governments, and the media for over six decades! 

Does that statement seem not possible? For decades, the global cigarette industry convinced the world's politicians and citizens that cigarettes did not cause lung cancer, health problems, or death with only a fraction of the global fossil fuel cartel's 28 trillion dollar-a-year income. 

The fossil fuel cartel's lavishly-funded climate censorship actions are as follows:

Global disinformation campaigns to make you believe we are making progress in fixing climate change when we are not.

Global misinformation campaigns by funding think tanks and others to continuously create and spread clever new false doubts or confusion about the causes, consequences, progress, and solutions surrounding climate change and the damages the fossil fuel cartel's products produce (without looking like this false information is coming from the fossil fuel industry.)

Successfully delaying or killing government-level regulations designed to reduce fossil fuel usage or make the fossil fuel industry pay for the deadly pollution and other dangerous, costly consequences its products cause.

Using climate change distortion tactics like creating false hopes that new technologies like carbon capture (or old technologies like the increased use of "cleaner" propane) will protect us now, save us at the last minute, or that we do not need to radically reduce our fossil fuel use immediately. The insidious purpose for creating these false hope and false progress distortion campaigns is to make you feel safe and secure when you are not and make you believe we are making the needed steady progress in fixing climate change when we are not. If you think there is no dire problem, you will do nothing to demand your politicians act to fix it. 

The global fossil fuel cartel is using the above tactics for one major reason, trillions of dollars in profits are at stake. Additionally, they are doing it because if the world's citizens knew the real climate change facts (found on this website) and understood that the global fossil fuel cartel had deliberately deceived them for decades, they would angrily demand that their politicians radically cut global fossil fuel use immediately. 

If you still think what we say about the global fossil fuel cartel distorting, censoring, and unduly influencing our governments, the media, and the climate summary work and climate solutions of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) is untrue. Click here to see the hundreds of well-documented articles about the many ways and tactics the global fossil fuel cartel uses to ensure that our governments, the media, the United Nations, and the world's citizens do not ever demand reduced global fossil fuel use to the required levels to save their own lives and the lives of their children. If you are a science person, click here for a deep dive into how the global fossil fuel cartel has corrupted and censored most of what you hear today about climate change.

It is bitterly painful when you, too, finally realize that the global fossil fuel cartel is entirely willing to sacrifice the lives and assets of billions of people and your children to satisfy their unquenchable greed for more profit (more super-yachts, more palaces, and more ridiculously luxurious lifestyles for key fossil fuel cartel owners, executives, and investors, etc.)

 

 

Additional essential climate change and atmospheric carbon history to help you frame and understand the candid directness of our new climate elevator pitches

 

 

1. Humanity thrived for millennia when atmospheric carbon was at the 270 to 280 ppm level. 

2. We would have stayed safe from runaway global warming and its extinction-triggering climate tipping points if we ONLY stayed at or below the carbon 350 ppm level. Since passing the carbon 386 ppm level in 2015, we have already triggered the climate tipping point and climate feedback loop stacking effect (like falling dominos) first disclosed by James Hansen, the NASA climate scientist.

2. In 2015, we hit the carbon 386 ppm level and entered the first stage of runaway global heating. 

 

 

3. Within 2-3 years, we will pass the carbon 425 ppm level. When we pass carbon 425 ppm level, we are already deep into the second phase of the runaway global warming process, and we trigger the first of four human extinction-accelerating tipping points. 

5. As of March 2022, we had already reached the very dangerous atmospheric carbon level of 420 ppm."

6. At the carbon 420 ppm level, we have already activated the crossing of ever more climate tipping points and climate feedback loops that will keep raising the average global temperature until we make the required, radical, and painful 2025 target reductions in our global fossil fuel use. 

7. Twenty-six international climate conferences over many decades have produced no results. On the contrary, carbon in the atmosphere has only got worse. The latest 27th conference in Egypt in 2022 was also another bust. 

 

 

 

 

The climate change elevator pitch below will surprise and shock some individuals who hear it, but shocking someone into awareness and action is both legitimate and necessary. This is particularly true in a life-and-death emergency, as we are now accelerating climate change. 

If, after reading the elevator pitch below, you are reluctant to share it with others, we ask that you thoroughly read the three links below. After reading the climate science on these two pages, we believe you may become as motivated as we are and have no problem educating those around you on the actual urgency of our current climate emergency. 

Read about these four extinction-accelerating climate tipping points first.

Next, please read about how our world's current major crisis will interact with climate change's escalating primary and secondary consequences, bringing about mass to near-total human extinction.

And finally, if you are still reluctant to share our quite intense elevator pitch below, please read about the ethical principles of necessary educational disruption regarding our accelerating climate change emergency.

Never forget that we will not be able to fix the climate change emergency until we individually and collectively compel our governments to face and fix its real and painful facts! 

Still, Have doubts?

The honest 2025 global fossil fuel reduction target is so high solely because our governments squandered sixty years when the required reductions could have been gradual and more manageable. 

When you hear the media or politicians tell you we only have to reduce global fossil fuel use by 40% by 2030, or 50% by 2040, or 2050 they are dead wrong. If our governments use those grossly underestimated global fossil fuel reduction targets, billions more of us will soon be dead. 

Within about three years (at best eight years if we are very lucky), our governments must mass mobilize and enact an effective climate plan covering ALL of the best possible options and worst possible outcomes and reduce global fossil fuel use in all developed countries by 75% or more. 

Many positive possibilities will occur when our governments finally fix the climate change runaway global heating emergency. If we are successful, humanity and our nations will experience many surprising benefits and possibly even a Great Global Rebirth.

Never forget we have only 3 to, at best, eight years left to reduce all global fossil fuel use in all developed nations by 75%. When we pass the carbon 425-450 threshold, we enter the second irreversible phase of runaway global heating and into an accelerating human die-off that not even the most innovative scientists from Oxford, Harvard, Cambridge, Yale, Stanford, University of California Berkeley, and MIT will be able to stop until almost all of us are dead. 

From the preceding painful climate facts on can clearly see, one can see that the March 2022 carbon 420 level is far beyond any reasonable and safe atmospheric carbon level and well into the stacking (domino) effect of runaway global warming. At this carbon 420 ppm level, our atmospheric carbon level is about 155% greater than the long-term humanity-thriving atmospheric carbon level of 270 ppm.

How much higher does this percentage of atmospheric carbon have to rise beyond the last safe level of carbon 350 ppm before we collectively realize that we are rapidly approaching a mass to near-total extinction danger?

One must first understand the essence of the problem and its real deadlines before one can fix it. You now understand the consequences of our runaway global heating problem.

Please click here if you do not believe that it is now unavoidable that about half of humanity will go extinct by mid-century if we fail to get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. The first link will take you to the many global heating-related consequences unfolding in this nightmare process.

If you doubt the accuracy of the above runaway global heating truth, please go to this page. It will take you through all of the supporting facts, illustrations, deadlines, and scientific information.

Our climate change and runaway global heating extinction threat in a nutshell 

For decades, cigarette companies hid the dangers of their products with misinformation and disinformation and stopped anti-smoking legislation. Likewise, for decades, the 28 trillion dollar-a-year global fossil fuel industry has hidden fossil fuel's global heating dangers with massive misinformation and disinformation campaigns, and they have stopped legislation designed to reduce national and international fossil fuel use gradually.  

Because of that six-decade delay in reducing fossil fuel use caused directly by the massive misinformation and disinformation campaigns of the fossil fuel industry, half of humanity will now unavoidably die by mid-century! Be clear about this. This mass die-off will be caused by the massive misinformation and disinformation campaigns of the fossil fuel industry and the escalating consequences of runaway global heating from burning their fossil fuels. 

So, the only remaining questions are:

What will you do to push the world to meet the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets? 

What will you do to save yourself and the half of humanity that can still be saved? 

This IS everyone's clear, urgent, and last-chance call to action. 

 

 

 

If you are a member of Generation X, Y, or Z. In that case, whether you realize it or not, the above two questions above will become a central question for the rest of your life. They must be planned for and acted upon. If not, you will likely become part of that half or more of humanity that doesn't make it through the runaway global heating extinction emergency.

Get into action

Please click this link and make a pledge to start the actions needed to protect yourself, humanity, and all life on Earth from runaway global heating.

Click here to begin the Job One Action plan and help us start to fix this mess.

If you have not done so already, click here to read about the many benefits of global heating and climate change. This benefits page is the most read page of our website, with over 2 million visits.

How can you and I face the predicament that humankind and modern civilization have created? 

Read more

Last Updated 5.7.25.

Job One for Humanity published this article. Job One is a nonprofit climate change think tank and risk assessment organization founded in 2008. It is nonpartisan, 100% publicly funded, and uncensored by any government or corporation.

(As of May 2025, we are currently in the middle of our second five-year upgrade of all content on our website. Until this upgrade is complete, our new editors may still be correcting minor grammatical or spelling errors as they go through the hundreds of pages on our website.)

 

Overview

Job One for Humanity, founded in 2008, is a non-profit, 100% publicly funded, nonpartisan, climate change think tank that provides a holistic "big picture" climate overview and uncensored dialectical meta-systemic analysis (DMAP) of the inter-connected and inter-dependent climate systems and sub-systems creating our current climate change and runaway global heating emergency. 

Our organization supplies research-grounded climate change consequence analysis, timeframes, risk assessment, and solutions to educational, climate, and environmental organizations worldwide without charge. We also provide a fee-based climate analysis, risk assessment, and solutions service to insurance companies, governments, and businesses affected by climate change emergencies.

 

 

While we do not do in-house original climate research, we use the underlying published research papers of independent and respected climate scientists and the climate research from organizations like the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA.) 

Please note that we do not use the IPCC's climate summary reports without first re-calculating or adjusting their summary reports because of the IPCC's extensive history of politicizing the climate science and grossly underestimating timelines and climate consequence intensity. (On this page and its links and sub-menus, you will find detailed explanations of the IPCC's history of politicizing the climate science and grossly underestimating timelines and climate consequence intensity.) 

Below you will find a long list of climate research papers and summary materials reviewed or used by our organization in its analysis, prediction, or recommendations. In addition to the long study reference list found below, many additional climate study references are also found:

1. in the body of many of our web pages, or in the end notes or technical notes found at the end of many of our website pages.

2. in the many available video presentations on our website by climate scientists or researchers describing their own research data. Click here to see an example of these videos. It is the renowned climate scientist Kevin Anderson presenting the climate emergency at Oxford University in England.

At the bottom of all of the study references below, you will also find additional sections on how we do our climate research and analysis. 

 

Our Relationship with the Universe Institute Think Tank

We have been in a collaborative relationship with the Universe Institute for over a decade on climate change issues. We are deeply grateful to the Universe Institute for introducing us to DMAP, the new dialectical metasystemic analysis and problems-solving methodology. Without the assistance of the Universe Institute and our use of the DMAP breakthrough, the uncensored climate change analysis, forecasts, and solutions you find on the Job One website would not have been possible.

 

There are four main reasons why climate change facts, forecasts, and analyses coming out of the Job One for Humanity climate change think tank are considerably more accurate than facts and analyses coming from other climate change think tanks or climate change educational organizations

1. Our 100% public-only funding factor means that our research and analysis have no "funding bias" or funder coloring, which alters our results or forecasts. "Funding bias occurs when researchers are aware that whatever individual, corporation, or government agency is funding their research is also seeking some favorable research result they can use to support a position or project they want to forward or maintain.

 

 

Unfortunately, funding bias is blinding and plaguing many climate research and environmental educational organizations. They keep altering or watering down the actual climate facts so as not to upset their donors and to ensure continual funding by other vested financial interests directly or indirectly related to the global fossil fuel cartel.

 

 

Job One for Humanity is very different. It treats its donors and members as adults capable of managing lousy news. We always tell them the current climate facts, no matter how painful and disruptive they might be.

We also do not accept ANY funding or consulting work from any organization benefiting directly or indirectly from climate change or its causes or with a history of altering or hiding climate change facts or promoting falsehoods. 

We can only do this because we are 100% publicly funded by you! Please click here to see how the global fossil fuel cartel is spending billions to ensure no organization, government, or mainstream media outlet is telling the public about how bad the change emergency really is.

 

2. We are the only climate change think tank using the newest and most powerful analysis system for understanding and predicting complex adaptive systems like the climate. This new, very advanced analysis system is called DMAP (Dialectical Metasystemic Analysis and Problem-Solving.)

If you are a nerd like us and want to learn more about this colossal breakthrough transcending earlier systems to analyze the complex data found within today's many complex adaptive systems (like politics, economics, the climate, ecology, etc.), click here first, then click this DMAP link.

(The first click will take you to a review of a new book called Human Superintelligence that discusses the DMAP learning process in detail. The second link will take you to many other resources on this world-changing analysis breakthrough that is perfect for the world of complex adaptive systems we now live in.)

Click here to see how this new thinking skill allows us to understand the deep levels of the complexity of climate change.

 

3. Our think tank goes to great lengths to re-analyze current climate change research and analysis for intentional and unintentional errors, omissions, understated and overstated consequences, and subtly hidden, vested financial interest manipulation of climate change data.

Click here and read the many links on this page to discover the many intentional and unintentional errors, omissions, understated and overstated consequences, and subtly hidden, vested financial interest manipulation of climate change data that our organization has exposed over the years.

 

4. Accurate information about the climate change emergency is vital to humanity's future and to preventing widespread global collapse and chaos. It must be told honestly and repeatedly until those in power hear it.

There will be mass human extinction if we do not continuously speak "climate truth to power" and tell the whole truth about the climate change emergency --- no matter how painful. In the accelerating climate change emergency, humanity's very survival is in the balance.

If accurate climate change consequences and timetables are not openly discussed as adults, or they are denied or hidden, much of humanity will perish. Yes, you heard that right: much of humanity will perish!

Everyone at Job One for Humanity knows this to be the unequivocal truth, so our work must remain uncensored and 100% publicly funded.

Click here for highly accurate climate change forecasts and predictions for the current year. 

Click here to see the Climageddon Feedbck Scenario, which describes in painful detail the meltdown of climate change tipping points, feedback loops, and nonlinear reactions that are already occurring and will only worsen, leading to mass human extinction.

 

Discover amazing information, tools, alerts, and promotional benefits for becoming a Job One for Humanity climate change think tank donor/supporter/member by clicking here!

 

How to challenge anything you find on our website

Go to this page and follow the instructions.

What we do at Job One for Humanity

Job One for Humanity educates about climate change, climate emergency preparedness, intelligent climate change adaptation, resilience-building, and identifying remaining locations for safer relocation due to climate change, including "managed retreat" and migration. Job One for Humanity also helps forward and support climate emergency preparation, adaptation, and resilience-building in co-founding the ClimateSafevillages.org organization and through the Universe One project.

At Job One, we promise our 100% publicly funded independent climate change think tank will always tell you the complete and uncensored climate truth and what many often do not want to hear about our current climate change emergency. Unfortunately, this climate information is the same painful climate change information you need to protect yourself and your future.  

Job One provides a "big picture" (holistic) climate change overview and an uncensored DMAP (dialectical metasystemic analysis) for the many interconnected and interdependent climate systems and subsystems that contribute to our current climate change emergency. When proposing climate change solutions, the central principle is, "Are these solutions effective, practical, and good for the common well-being?"

Job One For Humanity is also active in researching climate change justice issues, particularly concerning helping victims of climate change get financial restitution from the global fossil fuel cartel perpetrators of the climate change emergency. Job One also maintains a list of worldwide law firms and lawsuits filed against the global fossil fuel cartel members for climate change damages.

Job One researches and presents mostly free, uncensored climate change information, analysis, solutions, and timeframes to the world's citizens. Job One for Humanity never accepts funding or donations from fossil fuel-related industries or businesses.

  

 

We believe every global citizen deserves access to the same uncensored information on climate change threats and risks, as developed by major national intelligence agencies. Every citizen should have access to the same climate information purchased at great expense by wealthy hedge funds, investment banks, and billionaires from specialty risk-analysis firms, but only at a cost that is affordable to anyone of average income! (Job One also provides special scholarship programs for those individuals  living at their national poverty level and cannot afford access to our climate information.)

Our climate analysis ensures that every citizen can protect themselves, their families, and their businesses equally, as well as those with the privileges of high-security governmental positions or great wealth. Unrestricted, un-politicized, and uncensored climate change risk and threat knowledge is critical for citizens to understand their real challenges and wisely initiate survival-related emergency preparations, adaptations, or relocations for the coming avoidable and unavoidable climate catastrophes wherever needed.

Our climate articles and climate emergency analysis are completely un-influenced and uncensored by any political agenda, political party, or other financial or fossil fuel lobbyist intervention. Unlike other climate and environmental nonprofit educational organizations, we refuse to knowingly accept donations from fossil fuel lobbyists, producers, or industries that rely on fossil fuels, to ensure that there are no possible conflicts of interest or even the appearance of a conflict of interest. 

Job One has received the highest Platinum trust rating for financial transparency from Guidestar, an independent organization that examines nonprofit organizations' financial and other actions.

Job One for Humanity provides science-grounded climate change consequence analysis, timeframes, risk assessment, and solutions to executives at educational, climate, and environmental organizations worldwide at no charge. For insurance companies, governments, and businesses affected by climate change emergencies, we provide a fee-based climate analysis, risk assessment, and solutions service.

Click here to see why our climate change forecasts are more accurate than those of other climate forecasting institutions.

Here is our extensive, but still partial, master list of climate research papers and summaries

In addition to the published climate research from organizations like the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), we also use research from independent and respected climate scientists and researchers like those listed below. (Please note: We have been backed up with all of the acceleration going on with climate change and new analysis and publishing findings so we are behind in posting the most recent years of studies.)

James Hansen is one of the world's leading independent climate change and global heating scientists and authorities. He is an American adjunct professor directing the Program on Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He is best known for his research in climatology, his 1988 Congressional testimony on climate change that helped raise broad awareness of global warming, and his advocacy of action to avoid dangerous climate change. In recent years he has become a climate activist to mitigate the effects of global warming.

We rely regularly upon his research. He was one of the first and most active climate scientists to warn the world about the extinction dangers of runaway global heating while working at NASA the space agency. See his many climate-related studies below:

2022 and 2023. We are in the process of posting recent studies. You can find many of these currently linked on the pages of this website.

2021

Hansen, J. Foreword: Uncensored science is crucial for global conservation

2020

Beerling, D.J., E.P. Kantzas. M.R. Lomas, P. Wade, R.M. Eufrasio, P. Renforth, B. Sarkar, M.G. Andrews, R.H. James, C.R. Pearce, J.-F. Mercure, H. Pollitt, P.B. Holden, N.R. Edwards, M. Khanna, L. Koh, S. Quegan, N.F. Pidgeon, I.A. Janssens, J. Hansen, and S.A. Banwart, 2020: Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands, Nature 583, 242-248, doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2448-9.

Rye, C.D., J.Marshall, M. Kelley, G. Russell, L.S. Nazarenko, Y. Kostov, G.A. Schmidt, and J. Hansen, 2020: Antarctic Glacial Melt as a Driver of Recent Southern Ocean Climate Trends, Geophysical Research Letters 47, 11, doi:10.1029/2019GL086892.

von Schuckmann, K., L. Cheng, M.D. Palmer, J. Hansen et al., 2020: Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?, Earth System Science Data 12, 2013-2041, doi:10.5195/essd-12-2013-2020.

2019

Miller, D.H. and J.E. Hansen, 2019: Why Fee and Dividend Will Reduce Emissions Faster Than Other Carbon Pricing Policy Options, OurEnergyLibrary, Response to the Request for Information from the United States House of Representatives Select Committee on the Climate Crisis.

Lenssen, N.J.L., G.A. Schmidt, J.E. Hansen, M.J. Menne, A. Persin, R. Ruedy, and D. Zyss, 2019: Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, no. 12, 6307-6326, doi:10.1029/2018JD029522.

2018

Hansen, J., P. Kharecha, 2018: Cost of carbon capture: Can young people bear the burden?, Joule, 2, 1405-1407.

Beerling, D.J., J.R. Leake, S.P. Long, J.D. Scholes, J. Ton, P.N. Nelson, M. Bird, E. Kantzas, L.L. Taylor, B. Sarkar, M. Kelland, E. DeLucia, I. Kantola, C. Muller, G.H. Rau and J. Hansen, 2018: Farming with crops and rocks to address global climate, food and soil security, Nature Plants, 4, 138-147, doi:10.1038/s41477-018-0108-y.

2017

Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, K. von Schuckmann, D.J. Beerling, J. Cao, S. Marcott, V. Masson-Delmotte, M.J. Prather, E.J. Rohling, J. Shakun, P. Smith, A. Lacis, G. Russell, and R. Ruedy, 2017: Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions. Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577-616, doi:10.5194/esd-8-577-2017.

2016

Cao, J, A. Cohen, J. Hansen, R. Lester, P. Peterson and H. Xu , 2016: China-U.S. cooperation to advance nuclear power. Science, 353, 547-548. doi: 10.1126/science.aaf7131.

Hansen, J., and M. Sato, 2016: Regional Climate Change and National Responsibilities Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009 (9 pp.), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034009.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley, V. Masson-Delmotte, G. Russell, G. Tselioudis, J. Cao, E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, B. Tormey, B. Donovan, E. Kandiano, K. von Schuckmann, P. Kharecha, A.N. Legrande, M. Bauer, and K.-W. Lo, 2016: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms:/ evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761-3812. doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, K. von Schuckmann, D.J. Beerling, J. Cao, S. Marcott, V. Masson-Delmotte, M.J. Prather, E.J. Rohling, J. Shakun, P. Smith, 2016: Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions. Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., doi:10.5194/esd-2016-42, Published 4 October 2016.

Taylor, L.L., J. Quirk, R.M.S. Thorley, P.A. Kharecha, J. Hansen, A. Ridgwell, M.R. Lomas, S.A. Banwart, D.J. Beerling, 2016: Enhanced weathering strategies for stabilizing climate and averting ocean acidification. Nature Climate Change, 6, 402-406. doi:10.1038/nclimate2882.

von Schuckmann, K., M.D. Palmer, K.E. Trenberth, A. Cazenave, D. Chambers, N. Champollion, J. Hansen, S.A. Josey, N. Loeb, P.-P. Mathieu, B. Meyssignac, M. Wild, 2016: An imperative to monitor Earth's energy imbalance Nature Climate Change 6, 138-144, doi:10.1038/nclimate2876.

2015

Hansen, J., 2015: Environment and Development Challenges: The Imperative of a Carbon Fee and Dividend. The Oxford Handbook of the Macroeconomics of Global Warming, Eds. Lucas Bernard and Willi Semmler, Chapter 26, doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199856978.013.0026.

Hansen, J., M. Sato. P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley, V. Masson-Delmotte, G. Russell, G. Tselioudis, J. Cao, E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, E. Kandiano, K. von Schuckmann, P. Kharecha, A.N. Legrande, M. Bauer, and K.-W. Lo, 2015: Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2 C Global Warming is Highly Dangerous. Published in Atmos. Chem. & Phys. Discussions (July 23).

Nazarenko, L., G.A. Schmidt, R.L. Miller, N. Tausnev, M. Kelley, R. Ruedy, G.L. Russell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, S. Bauer, R. Bleck, V. Canuto, Y. Cheng, T.L. Clune, A.D. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, J.E. Hansen, R.J. Healy, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, A.A. Lacis, A.N. LeGrande, J. Lerner, K.K. Lo, S. Menon, V. Oinas, J.P. Perlwitz, M.J. Puma, D. Rind, A. Romanou, M. Sato, D.T. Shindell, S. Sun, K. Tsigaridis, N. Unger, A. Voulgarakis, M.-S. Yao, and J. Zhang, 2015: Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 7, no. 1, 244-267, doi:10.1002/2014MS000403.

2014

Hansen, J. 2014: The Energy to Fight Injustice. Chemistry World, 23 July 2014.

Miller, R.L., G.A. Schmidt, L.S. Nazarenko, N. Tausnev, S.E. Bauer, A.D. Del Genio, M. Kelley, K.K. Lo, R. Ruedy, D.T. Shindell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, R. Bleck, V. Canuto, Y.-H. Chen, Y. Cheng, T.L. Clune, G. Faluvegi, J.E. Hansen, R.J. Healy, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, A.A. Lacis, A.N. LeGrande, J. Lerner, S. Menon, V. Oinas, C. PC)rez GarcC-a-Pando, J.P. Perlwitz, M.J. Puma, D. Rind, A. Romanou, G.L. Russell, M. Sato, S. Sun, K. Tsigaridis, N. Unger, A. Voulgarakis, M.-S. Yao, and J. Zhang, 2014: CMIP5 historical simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, no. 2, 441-477, doi:10.1002/2013MS000266.

Schmidt, G.A., M. Kelley, L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, G.L. Russell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, S.E. Bauer, M.K. Bhat, R. Bleck, V. Canuto, Y.-H. Chen, Y. Cheng, T.L. Clune, A. Del Genio, R. de Fainchtein, G. Faluvegi, J.E. Hansen, R.J. Healy, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, A.A. Lacis, A.N. LeGrande, J. Lerner, K.K. Lo, E.E. Matthews, S. Menon, R.L. Miller, V. Oinas, A.O. Oloso, J.P. Perlwitz, M.J. Puma, W.M. Putman, D. Rind, A. Romanou, M. Sato, D.T. Shindell, S. Sun, R.A. Syed, N. Tausnev, K. Tsigaridis, N. Unger, A. Voulgarakis, M.-S. Yao, and J. Zhang, 2014: Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, 141-184, doi:10.1002/2013MS000265.

2013

Hansen, J., P. Kharecha, and M. Sato, 2013: Climate forcing growth rates: Doubling down on our Faustian bargain. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 011006, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/011006.

Hansen, J., P. Kharecha, M. Sato, V. Masson-Delmotte, F. Ackerman, D.J. Beerling, P. Hearty, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, S.-L. Hsu, C. Parmesan, J. Rockstrom, E.J. Rohling, J. Sachs, P. Smith, K. Steffen, L. Van Susteren, K. von Schuckmann, J.C. Zachos, 2013: Assessing "Dangerous Climate Change": Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature. PLOS ONE, 8, e81468.

 

Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 2013a: Reply to Rhines and Huybers: Changes in the frequency of extreme summer heat. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110, E547-E548, doi:10.1073/pnas.1220916110.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 2013b: Reply to Stone et al.: Human-made role in local temperature extremes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110, E1544, doi:10.1073/pnas.1301494110.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, G. Russell, and P. Kharecha, 2013: Climate sensitivity, sea level, and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371, 20120294, doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0294.

Kharecha, P.A., and J.E. Hansen, 2013a: Prevented mortality and greenhouse gas emissions from historical and projected nuclear power. Environ. Sci. Technol., 47, 4889-4895, doi:10.1021/es3051197.

Kharecha, P.A., and J.E. Hansen, 2013b: Response to comment on "Prevented mortality and greenhouse gas emissions from historical and projected nuclear power". Environ. Sci. Technol., 47, 6718-6719, doi:10.1021/es402211m.

Kharecha, P., and J.E. Hansen, 2013c: Response to comment by Rabilloud on "Prevented mortality and greenhouse gas emissions from historical and projected nuclear power". Environ. Sci. Technola., 47, 13900-13901, doi:10.1021/es404806w.

Lacis, A.A., J.E. Hansen, G.L. Russell, V. Oinas, and J. Jonas, 2013: The role of long-lived greenhouse gases as principal LW control knob that governs the global surface temperature for past and future climate change". Tellus B, 65, 19734, doi:10.3402/tellusb.v65i0.19734.

Previdi, M., B.G. Liepert, D. Peteet, J. Hansen, D.J. Beerling, A.J. Broccoli, S. Frolking, J.N. Galloway, M. Heimann, C. Le Quéré, S. Levitus, and V. Ramaswamy, 2013: Climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 139, 1121-1131, doi:10.1002/qj.2165.

2012

Hansen, J.E., and M. Sato, 2012: Paleoclimate implications for human-made climate change. In Climate Change: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects. A. Berger, F. Mesinger, and D. Šijački, Eds. Springer, pp. 21-48, doi:10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 2012: Perception of climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 109, 14726-14727, E2415-E2423, doi:10.1073/pnas.1205276109.

Rohling, E.J., A. Sluijs, H.A. Dijkstra, P. Köhler, R.S.W. van de Wal, A.S. von der Heydt, D.J. Beerling, A. Berger, P.K. Bijl, M. Crucifix, R. DeConto, S.S. Drijfhout, A. Fedorov, G.L. Foster, A. Ganopolski, J. Hansen, B. Hönisch, H. Hooghiemstra, M. Huber, P. Huybers, R. Knutti, D.W. Lea, L.J. Lourens, D. Lunt, V. Masson-Demotte, M. Medina-Elizalde, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Pagani, H. Pälike, H. Renssen, D.L. Royer, M. Siddall, P. Valdes, J.C. Zachos, and R.E. Zeebe, 2012: Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, 491, 683-691, doi:10.1038/nature11574.

2011

Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, and K. von Schuckmann, 2011: Earth's energy imbalance and implications. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 13421-13449, doi:10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011.

2010

Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo, 2010: Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345

Kharecha, P.A., C.F. Kutscher, J.E. Hansen, and E. Mazria, 2010: Options for near-term phaseout of CO₂ emissions from coal use in the United States. Environ. Sci. Technol., 44, 4050-4062, doi:10.1021/es903884a.

Masson-Delmotte, V., B. Stenni, K. Pol, P. Braconnot, O. Cattani, S. Falourd, M. Kageyama, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, J.M. Barnola, J. Chappellaz, G. Krinner, S. Johnsen, R. Röthlisberger, J. Hansen, U. Mikolajewicz, and B. Otto-Bliesner, 2010: EPICA Dome C record of glacial and interglacial intensities. Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 113-128, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.09.030.

2009

Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F.S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T.M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C.A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P.K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R.W. Corell, V.J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley, 2009: Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecol. Soc., 14, no. 2, 32.

Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F.S. Chapin, III, E.F. Lambin, T.M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H.J. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C.A. de Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P.K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R.W. Corell, V.J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J.A. Foley, 2009: A safe operating space for humanity. Nature, 461, 472-475, doi:10.1038/461472a.

Xu, B., J. Cao, J. Hansen, T. Yao, D.J. Joswia, N. Wang, G. Wu, M. Wang, H. Zhao, W. Yang, X. Liu, and J. He, 2009: Black soot and the survival of Tibetan glaciers. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, 22114-22118 doi:10.1073/pnas.0910444106.

2008

Hansen, J., 2008: Tipping point: Perspective of a climatologist. In State of the Wild 2008-2009: A Global Portrait of Wildlife, Wildlands, and Oceansa. E. Fearn, Ed. Wildlife Conservation Society/Island Press, pp. 6-15.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D.L. Royer, and J.C. Zachos, 2008: Target atmospheric CO₂: Where should humanity aim? Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217-231, doi:10.2174/1874282300802010217.

Kharecha, P.A., and J.E. Hansen, 2008: Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO₂ and climate. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, GB3012, doi:10.1029/2007GB003142.

2007

Hansen, J.E., 2007a: Scientific reticence and sea level rise. Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 024002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002.

Hansen, J., 2007b: Climate catastrophe. New Scientist, 195, no. 2614 (July 28), 30-34.

Hansen, J., 2007c: Why we can't wait: A 5-step plan for solving the global crisis. Nation, 284, no. 18 (May 7), 13-14.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, G. Russell, D.W. Lea, and M. Siddall, 2007: Climate change and trace gases. Phil. Trans. Royal. Soc. A, 365, 1925-1954, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2052.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, P. Kharecha, A. Lacis, R.L. Miller, L. Nazarenko, K. Lo, G.A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, S. Bauer, E. Baum, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Cohen, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, J. Jonas, M. Kelley, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, G. Labow, J. Lerner, S. Menon, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, R. Schmunk, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, D. Streets, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, N. Unger, M. Yao, and S. Zhang, 2007:Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS ModelE. Clim. Dynam., 29, 661-696, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0255-8.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, P. Kharecha, A. Lacis, R.L. Miller, L. Nazarenko, K. Lo, G.A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, S. Bauer, E. Baum, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Cohen, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, J. Jonas, M. Kelley, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, G. Labow, J. Lerner, S. Menon, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, R. Schmunk, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, D. Streets, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, N. Unger, M. Yao, and S. Zhang, 2007:Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 2287-2312.

Mishchenko, M.I., B. Cairns, G. Kopp, C.F. Schueler, B.A. Fafaul, J.E. Hansen, R.J. Hooker, T. Itchkawich, H.B. Maring, and L.D. Travis, 2007: Accurate monitoring of terrestrial aerosols and total solar irradiance: Introducing the Glory mission. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 677-691, doi:10.1175/BAMS-88-5-677.

Nazarenko, L., N. Tausnev, and J. Hansen, 2007: The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation simulated by the GISS climate model during 1970-99. Atmos.-Ocean, 45, 81-92, doi:10.3137/ao.450202.

Novakov, T., S. Menon, T.W. Kirchstetter, D. Koch, and J.E. Hansen, 2007: Reply to comment by R. L. Tanner and D. J. Eatough on "Aerosol organic carbon to black carbon ratios: Analysis of published data and implications for climate forcing". J. Geophys. Res., 112, D02203, doi:10.1029/2006JD007941.

Rahmstorf, S., A. Cazenave, J.A. Church, J.E. Hansen, R.F. Keeling, D.E. Parker, and R.C.J. Somerville, 2007: Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science, 316, 709, doi:10.1126/science.1136843.

2006

Hansen, J., 2006. The threat to the planet. New York Rev. Books, 53, no. 12 (July 13, 2006), 12-16.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, K. Lo, D.W. Lea, and M. Medina-Elizade 2006. Global temperature change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 103, 14288-14293, doi:10.1073/pnas.0606291103.

Nazarenko, L., N. Tausnev, and J. Hansen 2006. Sea-ice and North Atlantic climate response to CO2-induced warming and cooling conditions. J. Glaciol. 52, 433-439.

Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, P.J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, M.F. Wehner, K. AchutaRao, T.P. Barnett, J.S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, M. Fiorino, N. Gillett, J.E. Hansen, P.D. Jones, S.A. Klein, G.A. Meehl, S.C.B. Raper, R.W. Reynolds, K.E. Taylor, and W.M. Washington 2006.Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 103, 13905-13910, doi:10.1073/pnas.0602861103.

Schmidt, G.A., R. Ruedy, J.E. Hansen, I. Aleinov, N. Bell, M. Bauer, S. Bauer, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, Y. Cheng, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, A.D. Friend, T.M. Hall, Y. Hu, M. Kelley, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, A.A. Lacis, J. Lerner, K.K. Lo, R.L. Miller, L. Nazarenko, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, G.L. Russell, Mki. Sato, D.T. Shindell, P.H. Stone, S. Sun, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, and M.-S. Yao 2006. Present day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: Comparison to in-situ, satellite and reanalysis data. J. Climate 19, 153-192, doi:10.1175/JCLI3612.1.

Shindell, D., G. Faluvegi, A. Lacis, J. Hansen, R. Ruedy, and E. Aguilar 2006. Role of tropospheric ozone increases in 20th century climate change. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D08302, doi:10.1029/2005JD006348.

Shindell, D.T., G. Faluvegi, R.L. Miller, G.A. Schmidt, J.E. Hansen, and S. Sun 2006. Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L24706, doi:10.1029/2006GL027468.

2005

Hansen, J.E. 2005. A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes "dangerous anthropogenic interference"? An editorial essay. Clim. Change 68, 269-279, doi:10.1007/s10584-005-4135-0.

Hansen, J., L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, J. Willis, A. Del Genio, D. Koch, A. Lacis, K. Lo, S. Menon, T. Tovakov, Ju. Perlwitz, G. Russell, G.A. Schmidt, and N. Tausnev 2005. Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science 308, 1431-1435, doi:10.1126/science.1110252.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, L. Nazarenko, A. Lacis, G.A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, S. Bauer, N. Bell, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, M. Kelley, N. Kiang, D. Koch, J. Lean, J. Lerner, K. Lo, S. Menon, R. Miller, P. Minnis, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, B. Wielicki, T. Wong, M. Yao, and S. Zhang 2005. Efficacy of climate forcings. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D18104, doi:10.1029/2005JD005776.

Koch, D., and J. Hansen 2005. Distant origins of Arctic black carbon: A Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE experiment. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D04204, doi:10.1029/2004JD005296.

Novakov, T., S. Menon, T.W. Kirchstetter, D. Koch, and J.E. Hansen 2005. Aerosol organic carbon to black carbon ratios: Analysis of published data and implications for climate forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D21205, doi:10.1029/2005JD005977.

Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, C. Mears, F.J. Wentz, S.A. Klein, D.J. Seidel, K.E. Taylor, P.W. Thorne, M.F. Wehner, P.J. Gleckler, J.S. Boyle, W.D. Collins, K.W. Dixon, C. Doutriaux, M. Free, Q. Fu, J.E. Hansen, G.S. Jones, R. Ruedy, T.R. Karl, J.R. Lanzante, G.A. Meehl, V. Ramaswamy, G. Russell, and G.A. Schmidt 2005. Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. Science 309, 1551-1556, doi:10.1126/science.1114867.

2004

Hansen, J., 2004. Defusing the global warming time bomb. Sci. Amer. 290, no. 3, 68-77.

Hansen, J., T. Bond, B. Cairns, H. Gaeggler, B. Liepert, T. Novakov, and B. Schichtel 2004. Carbonaceous aerosols in the industrial era.Eos Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union 85, no. 25, 241, 245.

Hansen, J., and L. Nazarenko 2004. Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 101, 423-428, doi:10.1073/pnas.2237157100.

Hansen, J., and M. Sato 2004. Greenhouse gas growth rates. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 101, 16109-16114, doi:10.1073/pnas.0406982101.

Mishchenko, M.I., B. Cairns, J.E. Hansen, L.D. Travis, R. Burg, Y.J. Kaufman, J.V. Martins, and E.P. Shettle 2004. Monitoring of aerosol forcing of climate from space: Analysis of measurement requirements. J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer 88, 149-161, doi:10.1016/j.jqsrt.2004.03.030.

Novakov, T., and J.E. Hansen 2004. Black carbon emissions in the United Kingdom during the past four decades: An empirical analysis.Atmos. Environ., 4155-4163, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.04.031.

2003

Hansen, J., 2003: Can we defuse the global warming time bomb? naturalScience, posted Aug. 1, 2003.

Novakov, T., V. Ramanathan, J.E. Hansen, T.W. Kirchstetter, M. Sato, J.E. Sinton, and J.A. Satahye, 2003: Large historical changes of fossil-fuel black carbon aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, no. 6, 1324, doi:10.1029/2002GL016345.

Santer, B.D., R. Sausen, T.M.L. Wigley, J.S. Boyle, K. AchutaRao, C. Doutriaux, J.E. Hansen, G.A. Meehl, E. Roeckner, R. Ruedy, G. Schmidt, and K.E. Taylor, 2003: Behavior of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses, and observations: Decadal changes. J. Geophys. Res., 108, no. D1, 4002, doi:10.1029/2002JD002258.

Sato, M., J. Hansen, D. Koch, A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, O. Dubovik, B. Holben, M. Chin, and T. Novakov, 2003: Global atmospheric black carbon inferred from AERONET. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 100, 6319-6324, doi:10.1073/pnas.0731897100.

Sun, S., and J.E. Hansen, 2003: Climate simulations for 1951-2050 with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. J. Climate, 16, 2807-2826, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2807:CSFWAC>2.0.CO;2.

2002

Hansen, J.E., 2002: A brighter future. Climatic Change, 52, 435-440, doi:10.1023/A:1014226429221.

Hansen, J.E. (Ed.), 2002: Air Pollution as a Climate Forcing: A Workshop. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Carmichael, G.R., D.G. Streets, G. Calori, M. Amann, M.Z. Jacobson, J. Hansen, and H. Ueda, 2002: Changing trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: Implications for acid deposition. Environ. Sci. Technol., 36, 4707-4713, doi:10.1021/es011509c.

Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo, 2002: Global warming continues. Science, 295, 275, doi:10.1126/science.295.5553.275c.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, D. Koch, I. Tegen, T. Hall, D. Shindell, B. Santer, P. Stone, T. Novakov, L. Thomason, R. Wang, Y. Wang, D. Jacob, S. Hollandsworth, L. Bishop, J. Logan, A. Thompson, R. Stolarski, J. Lean, R. Willson, S. Levitus, J. Antonov, N. Rayner, D. Parker, and J. Christy, 2002: Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 107, no. D18, 4347, doi:10.1029/2001JD001143.

Menon, S., J.E. Hansen, L. Nazarenko, and Y. Luo, 2002: Climate effects of black carbon aerosols in China and India. Science, 297, 2250-2253, doi:10.1126/science.1075159.

Robinson, W.A., R. Ruedy, and J.E. Hansen, 2002: General circulation model simulations of recent cooling in the east-central United States. J. Geophys. Res., 107, no. D24, 4748, doi:10.1029/2001JD001577.

2001

Hansen, J.E., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl, 2001: A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 23947-23963, doi:10.1029/2001JD000354.

Hansen, J.E., and M. Sato, 2001: Trends of measured climate forcing agents. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 98, 14778-14783, doi:10.1073/pnas.261553698.

Nazarenko, L., J. Hansen, N. Tausnev, and R. Ruedy, 2001: Response of the Northern Hemisphere sea ice to greenhouse forcing in a global climate model. Ann. Glaciol., 33, 513-520, doi:10.3189/172756401781818897.

Oinas, V., A.A. Lacis, D. Rind, D.T. Shindell, and J.E. Hansen, 2001: Radiative cooling by stratospheric water vapor: Big differences in GCM results. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2791-2794, doi:10.1029/2001GL013137.

Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, C. Doutriaux, J.S. Boyle, J.E. Hansen, P.D. Jones, G.A. Meehl, E. Roeckner, S. Sengupta, and K.E. Taylor, 2001: Accounting for the effects of volcanoes and ENSO in comparisons of modeled and observed temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 28033-28059, doi:10.1029/2000JD000189.

Streets, D.G., K. Jiang, X. Hu, J.E. Sinton, X.-Q. Zhang, D. Xu, M.Z. Jacobson, and J.E. Hansen, 2001: Recent reductions in China's greenhouse gas emissions. Science, 294, 1835-1837, doi:10.1126/science.1065226.

2000

Hansen, J.E., 2000: The Sun's role in long-term climate change. Space Sci. Rev., 94, 349-356, doi:10.1023/A:1026748129347.

Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, M. Sato, L. Nazarenko, N. Tausnev, I. Tegen, and D. Koch, 2000: Climate modeling in the global warming debate. In General Circulation Model Development. D. Randall, Ed. Academic Press, 127-164.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and V. Oinas, 2000: Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 97, 9875-9880, doi:10.1073/pnas.170278997.

Lacis, A.A., B.E. Carlson, and J.E. Hansen, 2000: Retrieval of atmospheric NO₂, O₃, aerosol optical depth, effective radius and variance information from SAGE II multi-spectral extinction measurements. Appl. Math. Comput., 116, 133-151, doi:10.1016/S0096-3003(99)00200-3.

1999

Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, J. Glascoe, and M. Sato, 1999: GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 30997-31022, doi:10.1029/1999JD900835.

1998

Hansen, J.E., 1998: Book review of Sir John Houghton's Global Warming: The Complete Briefing. J. Atmos. Chem., 30, 409-412.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, J. Glascoe, and R. Ruedy, 1998: A common sense climate index: Is climate changing noticeably? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 95, 4113-4120.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, I. Tegen, and E. Matthews, 1998: Perspective: Climate forcings in the industrial era. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 95, 12753-12758.

Hansen, J.E., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and J. Glascoe, 1998: Global climate data and models: A reconciliation. Science, 281, 930-932, doi:10.1126/science.281.5379.930.

Matthews, E., and J. Hansen (Eds.), 1998: Land Surface Modeling: A Mini-Workshop. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

1997

Hansen, J., C. Harris, C. Borenstein, B. Curran, and M. Fox, 1997: Research education. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 25677-25678, doi:10.1029/97JD02172.

Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, G. Russell, M. Sato, J. Lerner, D. Rind, and P. Stone, 1997: Wonderland climate model. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 6823-6830, doi:10.1029/96JD03435.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, A. Lacis, and R. Ruedy, 1997: The missing climate forcing. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. B, 352, 231-240, doi:10.1098/rstb.1997.0018.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 1997: Radiative forcing and climate response. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 6831-6864, doi:10.1029/96JD03436.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, K. Asamoah, K. Beckford, S. Borenstein, E. Brown, B. Cairns, B. Carlson, B. Curran, S. de Castro, L. Druyan, P. Etwarrow, T. Ferede, M. Fox, D. Gaffen, J. Glascoe, H. Gordon, S. Hollandsworth, X. Jiang, C. Johnson, N. Lawrence, J. Lean, J. Lerner, K. Lo, J. Logan, A. Luckett, M.P. McCormick, R. McPeters, R.L. Miller, P. Minnis, I. Ramberran, G. Russell, P. Russell, P. Stone, I. Tegen, S. Thomas, L. Thomason, A. Thompson, J. Wilder, R. Willson, and J. Zawodny, 1997: Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 25679-25720, doi:10.1029/97JD01495.

1996

Hansen, J., 1996: Climatic change: understanding global warming, pp. 173-190, in One World: The Health and Survival of the Human Species in the 21st Century, Ed. R. Lanza, Health Press, Santa Fe, NM, 325 pp.

Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and R. Reynolds, 1996: Global surface air temperature in 1995: Return to pre-Pinatubo level. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 1665-1668, doi:10.1029/96GL01040.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, K. Asamoah, S. Borenstein, E. Brown, B. Cairns, G. Caliri, M. Campbell, B. Curran, S. de Castro, L. Druyan, M. Fox, C. Johnson, J. Lerner, M.P. McCormick, R.L. Miller, P. Minnis, A. Morrison, L. Pandolfo, I. Ramberran, F. Zaucker, M. Robinson, P. Russell, K. Shah, P. Stone, I. Tegen, L. Thomason, J. Wilder, and H. Wilson, 1996: A Pinatubo climate modeling investigation. In The Mount Pinatubo Eruption: Effects on the Atmosphere and Climate, NATO ASI Series Vol. I 42. G. Fiocco, D. Fua, and G. Visconti, Eds. Springer-Verlag, 233-272.

1995

Hansen, J., W. Rossow, B. Carlson, A. Lacis, L. Travis, A. Del Genio, I. Fung, B. Cairns, M. Mishchenko, and M. Sato, 1995: Low-cost long-term monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks. Climatic Change, 31, 247-271, doi:10.1007/BF01095149.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 1995: Long-term changes of the diurnal temperature cycle: Implications about mechanisms of global climate change. Atmos. Res., 37, 175-209, doi:10.1016/0169-8095(94)00077-Q.

Hansen, J., H. Wilson, M. Sato, R. Ruedy, K. Shah, and E. Hansen, 1995: Satellite and surface temperature data at odds? Climatic Change, 30, 103-117, doi:10.1007/BF01093228.

1993

Hansen, J., 1993a: Climate forcings and feedbacks. In Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks, NASA CP-3234. J. Hansen, W. Rossow, and I. Fung, Eds. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 6-12.

Hansen, J., 1993b: Climsat rationale. In Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks, NASA CP-3234. J. Hansen, W. Rossow, and I. Fung, Eds. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 26-35.

Hansen, J., A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and H. Wilson, 1993: How sensitive is the world's climate? Natl. Geog. Soc. Res. Exploration, 9, 142-158.

Hansen, J., W. Rossow, and I. Fung (Eds.), 1993: Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks. NASA CP-3234. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Hansen, J., and H. Wilson, 1993: Commentary on the significance of global temperature records. Climatic Change, 25, 185-191, doi:10.1007/BF01661206.

Pollack, J.B., D. Rind, A. Lacis, J.E. Hansen, M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 1993: GCM simulations of volcanic aerosol forcing. Part I: Climate changes induced by steady-state perturbations. J. Climate, 6, 1719-1742, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1719:GSOVAF>2.0.CO;2.

Sato, M., J.E. Hansen, M.P. McCormick, and J.B. Pollack, 1993: Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850-1990. J. Geophys. Res., 98, 22987-22994, doi:10.1029/93JD02553.

1992

Charlson, R.J., S.E. Schwartz, J.M. Hales, R.D. Cess, J.A. Coakley, Jr., J.E. Hansen, and D.J. Hoffman, 1992: Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols. Science, 255, 423-430, doi:10.1126/science.255.5043.423.

Hansen, J., A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, and M. Sato, 1992: Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption. Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 215-218, doi:10.1029/91GL02788.

Lacis, A., J. Hansen, and M. Sato, 1992: Climate forcing by stratospheric aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 1607-1610, doi:10.1029/92GL01620.

1991

Hansen, J.E., and A. Lacis, 1991: Sun and water in the greenhouse: Reply to comments. Nature, 349, 467, doi:10.1038/349467c0.

Hansen, J., D. Rind, A. Del Genio, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, M. Prather, R. Ruedy, and T. Karl, 1991: Regional greenhouse climate effects. In Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations. M.E. Schlesinger, Ed. Elsevier, 211-229.

1990

Hansen, J.E., and A.A. Lacis, 1990: Sun and dust versus greenhouse gases: An assessment of their relative roles in global climate change. Nature, 346, 713-719, doi:10.1038/346713a0.

Hansen, J.E., A.A. Lacis, and R.A. Ruedy, 1990: Comparison of solar and other influences on long-term climate. In Climate Impact of Solar Variability, NASA CP-3086. K.H. Schatten, and A. Arking, Eds. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 135-145.

Hansen, J., W. Rossow, and I. Fung, 1990: The missing data on global climate change. Issues Sci. Technol., 7, 62-69.

Lorius, C., J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, J. Hansen, and H. Le Treut, 1990: The ice-core record: Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming. Nature, 347, 139-145, doi:10.1038/347139a0.

Rind, D., R. Goldberg, J. Hansen, C. Rosenzweig, and R. Ruedy, 1990: Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought. J. Geophys. Res., 95, 9983-10004, doi:10.1029/JD095iD07p09983.

1989

Hansen, J., A. Lacis, and M. Prather, 1989: Greenhouse effect of chlorofluorocarbons and other trace gases. J. Geophys. Res., 94, 16417-16421, doi:10.1029/JD094iD13p16417.

1988

Hansen, J., I. Fung, A. Lacis, D. Rind, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, G. Russell, and P. Stone, 1988: Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 9341-9364, doi:10.1029/JD093iD08p09341.

Hansen, J., and S. Lebedeff, 1988: Global surface air temperatures: Update through 1987. Geophys. Res. Lett., 15, 323-326, doi:10.1029/GL015i004p00323.

1987

Hansen, J.E., and S. Lebedeff, 1987: Global trends of measured surface air temperature. J. Geophys. Res., 92, 13345-13372, doi:10.1029/JD092iD11p13345.

Ramanathan, V., L. Callis, R. Cess, J. Hansen, I. Isaksen, W. Kuhn, A. Lacis, F. Luther, J. Mahlman, R. Reck, and M. Schlesinger, 1987: Climate-chemical interactions and effects of changing atmospheric trace gases. Rev. Geophys., 25, 1441-1482, doi:10.1029/RG025i007p01441.

1986

Hunten, D.M., L. Colin, and J.E. Hansen, 1986: Atmospheric science on the Galileo mission. Space Sci. Rev., 44, 191-240, doi:10.1007/BF00200817.

1985

Bennett, T., W. Broecker, and J. Hansen (Eds.), 1985: North Atlantic Deep Water Formation. NASA CP-2367. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Hansen, J.E., 1985: Geophysics: Global sea level trends. Nature, 313, 349-350, doi:10.1038/313349a0.

Hansen, J., G. Russell, A. Lacis, I. Fung, D. Rind, and P. Stone, 1985: Climate response times: Dependence on climate sensitivity and ocean mixing. Science, 229, 857-859, doi:10.1126/science.229.4716.857.

1984

Hansen, J., A. Lacis, and D. Rind, 1984: Climate trends due to increasing greenhouse gases. In Proceedings of the Third Symposium on Coastal and Ocean Management, ASCE/San Diego, California, June 1-4, 1983, 2796-2810.

Hansen, J., A. Lacis, D. Rind, G. Russell, P. Stone, I. Fung, R. Ruedy, and J. Lerner, 1984: Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms. In Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity. J.E. Hansen, and T. Takahashi, Eds., AGU Geophysical Monograph 29, Maurice Ewing Vol. 5. American Geophysical Union, 130-163.

Hansen, J.E., and T. Takahashi (Eds.), 1984: Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity. AGU Geophysical Monograph 29, Maurice Ewing Vol. 5. American Geophysical Union.

Rind, D., R. Suozzo, A. Lacis, G. Russell, and J. Hansen, 1984: 21 Layer Troposphere-Stratosphere Climate Model. NASA TM-86183. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

1983

Hansen, J., V. Gornitz, S. Lebedeff, and E. Moore, 1983: Global mean sea level: Indicator of climate change? Science, 219, 997, doi:10.1126/science.219.4587.997.

Hansen, J., D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, 1983: Climatic effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science, 220, 874-875, doi:10.1126/science.220.4599.874-a.

Hansen, J., G. Russell, D. Rind, P. Stone, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, and L. Travis, 1983: Efficient three-dimensional global models for climate studies: Models I and II. Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 609-662, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<0609:ETDGMF>2.0.CO;2.

Pinto, J.P., D. Rind, G.L. Russell, J.A. Lerner, J.E. Hansen, Y.L. Yung, and S. Hameed, 1983: A general circulation model study of atmospheric carbon monoxide. J. Geophys. Res., 88, 3691-3702, doi:10.1029/JC088iC06p03691.

1982

Gornitz, V., S. Lebedeff, and J. Hansen, 1982: Global sea level trend in the past century. Science, 215, 1611-1614, doi:10.1126/science.215.4540.1611.

1981

Hansen, J., D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, 1981: Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science, 213, 957-966, doi:10.1126/science.213.4511.957.

Lacis, A., J. Hansen, P. Lee, T. Mitchell, and S. Lebedeff, 1981: Greenhouse effect of trace gases, 1970-1980. Geophys. Res. Lett., 8, 1035-1038, doi:10.1029/GL008i010p01035.

1980

Hansen, J., 1980: Review of Theory of Planetary Atmospheres by J.W. Chamberlain. Icarus, 41, 175-176.

Hansen, J.E., A.A. Lacis, P. Lee, and W.-C. Wang, 1980: Climatic effects of atmospheric aerosols. Ann. New York Acad. Sci., 338, 575-587, doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.1980.tb17151.x.

Kawabata, K., D.L. Coffeen, J.E. Hansen, W.A. Lane, M.O. Sato, and L.D. Travis, 1980: Cloud and haze properties from Pioneer Venus polarimetry. J. Geophys. Res., 85, 8129-8140, doi:10.1029/JA085iA13p08129.

1979

Sato, M., and J.E. Hansen, 1979: Jupiter's atmospheric composition and cloud structure deduced from absorption bands in reflected sunlight. J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1133-1167, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<1133:JACACS>2.0.CO;2.

Travis, L.D., D.L. Coffeen, A.D. Del Genio, J.E. Hansen, K. Kawabata, A.A. Lacis, W.A. Lane, S.S. Limaye, W.B. Rossow, and P.H. Stone, 1979: Cloud images from the Pioneer Venus orbiter. Science, 205, 74-76, doi:10.1126/science.205.4401.74.

Travis, L.D., D.L. Coffeen, J.E. Hansen, K. Kawabata, A.A. Lacis, W.A. Lane, S.S. Limaye, and P.H. Stone, 1979: Orbiter cloud photopolarimeter investigation. Science, 203, 781-785, doi:10.1126/science.203.4382.781.

1978

Hansen, J.E., W.-C. Wang, and A.A. Lacis, 1978: Mount Agung eruption provides test of a global climatic perturbation. Science, 199, 1065-1068, doi:10.1126/science.199.4333.1065.

1977

Knollenberg, R.G., J. Hansen, B. Ragent, J. Martonchik, and M. Tomasko, 1977: The clouds of Venus. Space Sci. Rev., 20, 329-354, doi:10.1007/BF02186469.

Lillie, C.F., C.W. Hord, K. Pang, D.L. Coffeen, and J.E. Hansen, 1977: The Voyager mission Photopolarimeter Experiment. Space Sci. Rev., 21, 159-181, doi:10.1007/BF00200849.

Sato, M., K. Kawabata, and J.E. Hansen, 1977: A fast invariant imbedding method for multiple scattering calculations and an application to equivalent widths of CO₂ lines on Venus. Astrophys. J., 216, 947-962, doi:10.1086/155539.

Schubert, G., C.C. Counselman, III, J. Hansen, S.S. Limaye, G. Pettengill, A. Seiff, I.I. Shapiro, V.E. Suomi, F. Taylor, L. Travis, R. Woo, and R.E. Young, 1977: Dynamics, winds, circulation and turbulence in the atmosphere of Venus. Space Sci. Rev., 20, 357-387, doi:10.1007/BF02186459.

1976

Kawata, Y., and J.E. Hansen, 1976: Circular polarization of sunlight reflected by Jupiter. In Jupiter: Studies of the Interior, Atmosphere, Magneteosphere, and Satellites. T. Gehrels, Ed. University of Arizona Press, 516-530.

Somerville, R.C.J., W.J. Quirk, J.E. Hansen, A.A. Lacis, and P.H. Stone, 1976: A search for short-term meteorological effects of solar variability in an atmospheric circulation model. J. Geophys. Res., 81, 1572-1576, doi:10.1029/JC081i009p01572.

Wang, W.-C., Y.L. Yung, A.A. Lacis, T. Mo, and J.E. Hansen, 1976: Greenhouse effects due to man-made perturbation of trace gases. Science, 194, 685-690, doi:10.1126/science.194.4266.685.

1975

Hansen, J.E. (Ed.), 1975: The Atmosphere of Venus. NASA SP-382. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Hansen, J.E., and D. Coffeen, 1975: Analysis of cloud polarization measurements. Conference on Cloud Physics, Tucson, Ariz., October 21-24, 1974, Proceedings. (A75-44379 22-47) Boston, American Meteorological Society, 1975, p. 350-356.

Kawabata, K., and J.E. Hansen, 1975: Interpretation of the variation of polarization over the disk of Venus. J. Atmos. Sci., 32, 1133-1139, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<1133:IOTVOP>2.0.CO;2.

1974

Coffeen, D., and J.E. Hansen, 1974: Polarization studies of planetary atmospheresa. In Planets, Stars and Nebulae Studied with Photopolarimetry (T. Gehrels, Ed. pp. 1133) University of Arizona Press, Tucson, AZ, p. 518-581. doi: 10.2307/j.ctt2050vsn

Hansen, J.E., and J.W. Hovenier, 1974a: Interpretation of the polarization of Venus. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1137-1160, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<1137:IOTPOV>2.0.CO;2.

Hansen, J.E., and J.W. Hovenier, 1974b: Nature Venus Clouds as Derived from Their Polarzation in Exploration of the planetary system; Proceedings of the Symposium, Torun, Poland, September 5-8, 1973. (A75-21276 08-91) Dordrecht, D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1974, p. 197-200. Research supported by the Nederlandse Organisatie voor Zuiver-Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek; Bibliographic Code: 1974IAUS...65..197H

Hansen, J.E., and L.D. Travis, 1974: Light scattering in planetary atmospheres. Space Sci. Rev., 16, 527-610, doi:10.1007/BF00168069.

Lacis, A.A., and J.E. Hansen, 1974a: A parameterization for the absorption of solar radiation in the Earth's atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 118-133, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<0118:APFTAO>2.0.CO;2.

Lacis, A.A., and J.E. Hansen, 1974b: Atmosphere of Venus: Implications of Venera 8 sunlight measurements. Science, 184, 979-983, doi:10.1126/science.184.4140.979.

Somerville, R.C.J., P.H. Stone, M. Halem, J.E. Hansen, J.S. Hogan, L.M. Druyan, G. Russell, A.A. Lacis, W.J. Quirk, and J. Tenenbaum, 1974: The GISS model of the global atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 84-117, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<0084:TGMOTG>2.0.CO;2.

1973

Coffeen, D., and J.E. Hansen, 1973: Airborne infrared polarimetry. In Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment, Ann Arbor, Mich., October 2-6, 1972, vol. 1. Environmental Research Institute of Michigan, 515-522.

Whitehill, L.P., and J.E. Hansen, 1973: On the interpretation of the "inverse phase effect" for CO₂ equivalent widths on Venus. Icarus, 20, 146-152, doi:10.1016/0019-1035(73)90047-X.

1972

Hansen, J.E., and D. Coffeen, 1972: Polarization of near-infrared sunlight reflected by terrestrial clouds. Conference on Atmospheric Radiation, Fort Collins, Colo., August 7-9, 1972, Preprints. (A73-10351 01-13) Boston, American Meteorological Society, 1972, p. 55-60.

1971

Hansen, J.E., 1971a: Circular polarization of sunlight reflected by clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1515-1516, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<1515:CPOSRB>2.0.CO;2.

Hansen, J.E., 1971b: Multiple scattering of polarized light in planetary atmospheres. Part I. The doubling method. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 120-125, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0120:MSOPLI>2.0.CO;2.

Hansen, J.E., 1971c: Multiple scattering of polarized light in planetary atmospheres. Part II. Sunlight reflected by terrestrial water clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1400-1426, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<1400:MSOPLI>2.0.CO;2.

Hansen, J.E., and A. Arking, 1971: Clouds of Venus: Evidence for their nature. Science, 171, 669-672, doi:10.1126/science.171.3972.669.

Hansen, J.E., and J.W. Hovenier, 1971: The doubling method applied to multiple scattering of polarized light. J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer, 11, 809-812, doi:10.1016/0022-4073(71)90057-4.

Liou, K.-N., and J.E Hansen, 1971: Intensity and polarization for single scattering by polydisperse spheres: A comparison of ray optics and Mie theory. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 995-1004, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0995:IAPFSS>2.0.CO;2.

1970

Hansen, J.E., and J.B. Pollack, 1970: Near-infrared light scattering by terrestrial clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 265-281, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1970)027<0265:NILSBT>2.0.CO;2.

1969

Hansen, J.E., 1969a: Absorption-line formation in a scattering planetary atmosphere: A test of Van de Hulst's similarity relations. Astrophys. J., 158, 337-349, doi:10.1086/150196.

Hansen, J.E., 1969b: Exact and approximate solutions for multiple scattering by cloud and hazy planetary atmospheres. J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 478-487, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1969)026<0478:EAASFM>2.0.CO;2.

Hansen, J.E., 1969c: Radiative transfer by doubling very thin layers. Astrophys. J., 155, 565-573, doi:10.1086/149892.

Hansen, J.E., and H. Cheyney, 1969: Theoretical spectral scattering of ice clouds in the near infrared. J. Geophys. Res., 74, 3337-3346, doi:10.1029/JC074i013p03337.

1968

Hansen, J.E., and H. Cheyney, 1968a: Comments on the paper by D.G. Rea and B.T. O'Leary, "On the composition of the Venus clouds". J. Geophys. Res., 73, 6136-6137, doi:10.1029/JB073i018p06136.

Hansen, J.E., and H. Cheyney, 1968b: Near infrared reflectivity of Venus and ice clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 25, 629-633, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1968)025<0629:NIROVA>2.0.CO;2.

1967

Hansen, J.E., and S. Matsushima, 1967: The atmosphere and surface temperature of Venus: A dust insulation model. Astrophys. J., 150, 1139-1157, doi:10.1086/149410.

Kevin Anderson is another distinguished and independent climate scientists whose papers we rely upon. He is Professor of Energy and Climate Change, holding a joint chair in the School of Engineering at the University of Manchester (UK) and in Centre for Sustainability and the Environment (CEMUS) at Uppsala University (Sweden). He recently finished a two year fellowship as the Zennstrøm Professor of Climate Change Leadership in Uppsala, and has previously been both Deputy Director and Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. While we mostly agree with his climate research, there are some areas in which we disagree.

Here are a few of his more recent climate studies:

2019

1. Setting Climate Change Commitments for West Midlands Combined Authority Area: Quantifying the Implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on Climate Change for West Midlands Combined Authority. ...  

Kuriakose, J., Jones, C., Anderson, K., Broderick, J. & McLachlan, C., 14 Jul 2019, Manchester: University of Manchester. 19 p. Research output: Book/Report › Commissioned report

2. Trade and trade-offs: Shipping in changing climates

Walsh, C., Lazarou, N-J., Traut, M., Price, J., Raucci, C., Sharmina, M., Agnolucci, P., Mander, S., Gilbert, P., Anderson, K., Larkin, A. & Smith, T., 2019, In: Marine Policy. Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2019.103537

 

Michael Mann is an American climatologist and geophysicist. He is the director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. Mann has contributed to the scientific understanding of historic climate change based on the temperature record of the past thousand years. He has pioneered techniques to find patterns in past climate change and to isolate climate signals from noisy data. While we mostly agree with his climate research, there are some areas in which we disagree. He is another respected and independent climate scientist whose research we rely upon. Here are a few of his papers:

Abraham, J.P., Cheng, L., Mann, M.E., Trenberth, K.E., von Schuckmann, K., The Ocean Response to Climate Change Guides Both Adaptation and Mitigation Efforts, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 15, 100221, doi: 10.1016/j.aosl.2022.100221, 2022. [altmetric]

Steinman, B.A., Stansell, N.D., Mann, M.E., Cooke, C.A., Abbott, M.B., Vuille, M., Bird, B.W., Lachniet, M.S., Fernandez, A., Interhemispheric antiphasing of neotropical precipitation during the past millennium, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 119(17), e2120015119, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2120015119, 2022. [supplement] [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., The legacy of Rajendra Pachauri: a personal reflection, in “Dr R K Pachauri: The Crusader Against Climate Change”, Yateendra Joshi, P K Jayanthan, Vibha Dhawan, Amit Kumar, Rakesh Kacker (ed.s),  TERI Alumni Association, 2 pp, 2022.

Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Brouillette, D.J., Fernandez, A., Miller, S.K., On The Estimation of Internal Climate Variability During the Preindustrial Past Millennium, Geophys Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL096596, doi: 10.1029/2021GL096596, 2022. [supplement] [altmetric]

Cheng, L., Abraham, J.P., Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Mann, M.E., Zhu, J., Wang, F., Locarnini, R., Li, Y., Zhang, B., Tan, Z., Yu, F., Wan, L., Chen, X., Song, X., Liu, Y., Reseghetti, F., Simoncelli, S., Gouretski, V., Chen, G., Mishonov, A., Reagan, J., Another record: Ocean warming continues through 2021 Despite La Nina Conditions, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, doi:10.1007/s00376-022-1461-3, 2022. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Beyond the Hockey Stick: Climate Lessons from The Common Era, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 118 (39) e2112797118; doi: 10.1073/pnas.2112797118, 2021. (see also the accompanying author profile) [altmetric]

Mukherjee, S., G., Mishra, A.K., Mann, M.E., Raymond, C., Anthropogenic Warming and Population Growth May Double US Heat Stress by the Late 21^st Century, Earth’s Future, 9, e2020EF001886. doi:10.1029/2020EF001886, 2021. [altmetric]

Meehl, G.A., Richter, J.H., Teng, H., Capotondi, A, Cobb, K., Doblas-Reyes, F., Donat, M.G., England, M.H., Fyfe, J.C., Han, W., Kim, H., Kirtman, B.P., Kushnir, Y., Lovenduski, N.S., Mann, M.E., Merryfield, W.J., Nieves, V., Pegion, K., Rosenbloom, N., Sanchez, S.C.,. Scaife, A.A., Smith, D., Subramanian, A.C., Sun, L., Thompson, D., Ummenhofer, C.C., Xie, S.-P., Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales, Nat Rev Earth Environ, doi: 10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x, 2021. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Hall, L.J., Dulvy, N., Scientific Impact in a Changing World, Cell  (“Voices”), 184, 407-408, 2021. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Brouillette, D.J.., Miller, S.K., Multidecadal Climate Oscillations During the Past Millennium Driven by Volcanic Forcing, Science, 371, 1014–1019, 2021. [supplement] [altmetric]

Cheng, L., Abraham, J.P., Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Locarnini, R., Zhang, B., Yu, F., Wan, L., Chen, X., Song, X., Liu, Y, Mann, M.E., Zhu, J., Upper Ocean Temperatures Hit Record High in 2020, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 38, 523-530, 2021. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., From Climate Scientist to Climate Communicator: A Process of Evolution,  in "Standing up for a Sustainable World: Voices of Change",  Claude Henry, Johan Rockström, and Nicholas Stern (ed.s), Edward Elgar Publishing, 5 pp, 2020.

Cheng, L., Trenberth, K.E., Gruber, J., Abraham, J.P., Fasullo, J.T., Li., G., Mann, M.E., Zhao, X., Zhu, J., Improved estimates of changes in upper ocean salinity and the hydrological cycle, J. Climate, 33, 10357–10381, 2020. [altmetric]

Li, G., Cheng, L., Abraham, J.P., Zhu, J., Trenberth, K.E., Mann, M.E., Abraham, J.P., Increasing ocean stratification over the past half-century, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-00918-2, 2020. [altmetric]

Konapala, L., Mishra, A.K., Wada. Y., Mann, M.E., Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation, Nature Communications, 11, 3044, doi:10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w, 2020. [altmetric]

Cheng, L., Abraham, J.P., Zhu, J., Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Locarnini, R., Zhang, B., Yu, F., Wan, L., Chen, X., Song, X., Liu, Y., Mann, M.E., Record-setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019, Advances in Atmospheric Science 37, 137-142, 2020. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., Absence of Internal Multidecadal and Interdecadal Oscillations in Climate Model Simulations, Nature Communications 11, 49, doi:10.1038/s41467-019-13823-w, 2020. [supplement] [altmetric]

Post, E., Alley, R.B., Christensen, T.R., Macias-Fauria, M., Forbes, B.C., Gooseff, M.N., Iler, A., Kerby, J.T., Laidre, K.L., Mann, M.E., Olofsson, J., Stroeve, J.C., Ulmer, F., Virginia, R.A., Wang, M., The Polar Regions in a 2^oC warmer world, Science Advances, 5, eaaw9883 doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw9883, 2019. [altmetric]

Fick, D.M., Kolanowski, A.M., McDermott Levy, R.., Mann, M.E., Addressing the Health Risks of Climate Change in Older Adults, Journal of Gerontological Nursing, 45, 21-29, 2019. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Radical reform and the Green New Deal, Nature, 573, 340-341, 2019. [altmetric]

Verbitsky, M..Y., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Volobuev, D.M., Detecting causality signal in instrumental measurements and climate model simulations: global warming case study, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4053–4060, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4053-2019, 2019.

Hagedorn, G., Kalmus, P., Mann, M., Vicca, S., Van den Berge, J., van Ypersele, J.-P., Bourg, D., Rotmans, J., Karronen, R., Rahmstorf, S., Kromp-Kolb, H., Kirchengast, G., Knutti, R., Seneviratne, S.I., Thalmann, P., Cretney, R., Green, A., Anderson, K., Hedberg, M., Nilsson, D., Kuttner, A., Hayhoe, K., Concerns of Young Protestors are Justified, Science, 364, 139-140, 2019. [altmetric]

Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Skirving, W., Lough, J., Liu, C., Mann, M.E., Donner, S., Eakin, M., Cantin, N., Miller, S., Heron, S.F., Dove, S. Commentary: Reconstructing Four Centuries of Temperature-Induced Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Frontiers in Marine Science doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00086, 2019. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., The Weather Amplifier, Scientific American, 320, 43-49, 2019.

Lewandowsky, S., Cowtan, K., Risbey, J.S., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Oreskes, N., Rahmstorf, S., The “pause” in global warming in historical context: Comparing models to observations, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 123007, 2018. [altmetric]

Walker, A.M., Titley, D.W., Mann, M.E., Najjar, R.G., Miller, S.K., A Fiscally Based Scale for Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge, Weather and Forecasting, 33, 1709-1733, 2018. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf, S., Kornhuber, K., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., Coumou, D., Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events: The role of quasi-resonant amplification, Science Advances, 4:eaat3272, 2018. [supplement] [altmetric]

Li, M., Kump, L., Hinnov, L.A., Mann, M.E., Tracking variable sedimentation rates and astronomical forcing in Phanerozoic paleoclimate proxy series with evolutionary correlation coefficients and hypothesis testing, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 501, 165-179, 2018.  [altmetric]

Frankcombe, L.M., England, M.H., Kajtar, J.B., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., On the Choice of Ensemble Mean for Estimating the Forced Signal in the Presence of Internal Variability, J. Climate, 31, 5681-5693, 2018. [altmetric]

Restrepo, J.M., Mann, M.E., Uncertainty in Climate Science: Not Cause for Inaction, Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics News, 51, p. 1, 5, 2018.

Sinha, P., Mann, M.E., Fuentes, J.D., Mejia, A., Ning, L., Weiyi, S., He, T., Obeysekera, J., Downscaled rainfall projections in south Florida using self organizing maps,  variability, Science of the Total Environment, 635, 1110-1123, 2018. [altmetric]

Harvey, J.A., van den Berg, D., Ellers, J., Kampen, R., Crowther, T.W., Roessingh, P., Verheggen, B., Nuijten, R.J.M., Post, E., Lewandowsky, S., Stirling, I., Balgopal, M., Amstrup, S.C., Mann, M.E., Internet blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate Change Denial by Proxy, Bioscience, 68, 281-287, 2018. [altmetric]

Schurer, A., Cowtan, K., Hawkins, E., Mann, M.E., Scott, V., Tett, S.F.B., Interpretations of the Paris Climate Target, Nature Geoscience, 1752-0908, doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0086-8, 2018. [altmetric]

Post, E., Steinman, B.A., Mann, M.E., Rates of phenological advance and warming have increased with latitude in the Northern Hemisphere over the past century, Scientific Reports 8, 3297, 2018. [altmetric]

Garner, A., Kopp, R.E., Horton, B.P., Mann, M.E., Alley, R.B., Emanuel, K.A., Lin, N., Donnelly, J.P., Kemp, A.C., DeConto, R.M., Pollard, D., New York City’s evolving flood risk from hurricanes and sea level rise, Variations/Exchanges, U.S. CLIVAR, 16, 30-35, Winter 2018.

Mann, M.E., Time for a Different Story, New Scientist, p. 22-23, Feb. 24, 2018.

Cheung, A.H., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Frankcombe, L.M., England, M.H., Miller, S.K., Reply to Comment on “Comparison of low-frequency internal climate variability in CMIP5 models and observations” by Kratsov, J. Climate, 30, 9773-9782, 2017.  [altmetric]

Garner, A.J., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Kopp, R.E., Lin, N., Alley, R.B., Horton, B.P., DeConto, R.M. Donnelly, J.P., Pollard, D., The Impact of Climate Change on New York City’s Coastal Flood Hazard: Increasing Flood Heights from the Pre-Industrial to 2300 CE, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 114, 11861-11866, 2017. [altmetric]

Lewandowsky, S., Freeman, M.C., Mann, M.E., Harnessing the uncertainty monster: Putting quantitative constraints on the intergenerational social discount rate, Global and Planetary Change, 156, 155–166, 2017. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Lloyd, E.A., Oreskes, N., Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Weather Events: The Case For an Alternative (Bayesian) Approach, Climatic Change, 144, 131-142, 2017. [supplement] [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., Rahmstorf, S., Steinman, B.A., Tingley M., Record Temperature Streak Bears Anthropogenic Fingerprint, Geophys Res. Lett., 44, doi:10.1002/2017GL074056, 2017. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., review of The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, in Summer Books, Nature, 546, 28-29, 2017.

Mann, M.E., Al Gore gets inconvenient again, Nature, 546, 400-401, 2017. [altmetric]

Schurer, A.P., Mann, M.E., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G.C., Tett, S.F.B., Importance of the pre-Industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals, Nature Climate Change, 7, 563-567, 2017. [altmetric]

Abraham, J.P., Cheng, L., Mann, M.E.,  Future Climate Projections Allow Engineering Planning, Forensic Engineering, 170, 54-57, 2017. [altmetric]

Santer, B.D., Fyfe, J.C., Pallotta, G., Flato, G.M., Meehl, G.A., England, M.H., Hawkins, E., Mann, M.E., Painter, J.F., Bonfils, C., Cvijanovic, I., Meers, C., Wentz, F.J., Po-Chedley, S., Qiang, F., Zou, C.-Z.,  Investigating the Causes of Differences in Model and Satellite Tropospheric Warming Rates, Nature Geoscience, 10, 478-485, 2017. [altmetric]

Cheung, A.H., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Frankcombe, L.M., England, M.H., Miller, S.K., Comparison of Low Frequency Internal Climate Variability in CMIP5 Models and Observations, J. Climate, 30, 4763-4776, 2017. [altmetric]

Grajal, A, Luebke, J.F., Clayton, S., Saunders, C.D., Kelly, L-A, Matiasek, J., Stanoss, R., Goldman, S.D., Mann, M.E., Karazsia, B.T.,  A complex relationship between personal affective connections to animals and self-reported pro-environmental behaviors by zoo visitors, Conservation Biology, 31, 322-330, 2017. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf, S., Kornhuber, K., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., Coumou, D., Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events, Scientific Reports, 7, 19831, 2017. [supplement] [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Joy-Hassol, S., Climate Trumps Everything, Scientific American, 316, 8, 2017.

Bateman, T.S., Mann, M.E., The supply of climate leaders must grow, Nature Climate Change, 6, 1052-1054, 2016. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Oreskes, N., Emanuel, K.A., AGU Should Sever Its Ties with ExxonMobil, Eos, 97, 8-9, doi:10.1029/2016EO061455, 2016.

Lewandowsky, S., Mann, M.E., Brown, N.J.L., Friedman, H., Science and the Public: Debate, Denial, and Skepticism, Journal of Social and Political Psychology, 4, 1-99, doi:10.5964/jspp.v4i2.604, 2016. [altmetric]

Zhang, F., Li, W. Mann, M.E., Limits to Regional-scale Climate Predictability over North America, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33, 905-918, 2016. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Steinman, B., Miller, S.K., Frankcombe, L., England, M., Cheung, A.H., Predictability of the Recent Slowdown and Subsequent Recovery of Large-Scale Surface Warming using Statistical Methods, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3459-3467, 2016. [supplement] [altmetric]

Fyfe, J.C, Meehl, G.A., England, M.H., Mann, M.E., Santer, B.D., Flato, G.M., Hawkins, E., Gillet, N.P., Xie, S.-P., Kosaka, Y., Swart, N.C., Making sense of the early-2000s global warming slowdown, Nature Climate Change, 6, 224-228, 2016. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Must Try Harder, New Scientist, p. 29-30, Feb 20, 2016.

Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf, S., Steinman, B.A., Tingley, M., Miller, S.K., The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth, Scientific Reports, 6, 19831, 2016. [supplement] [altmetric]

Steinman, B.A. Frankcombe, L.M., Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., England, M.H., Response to Comment on “Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures", Science, 350, 1326, 2015. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Two Degrees of Freedom, Scientific American, 313, 12, 2015. [altmetric]

Lindeman, K.C., Dame, L.E., Avenarius, C.B., Horton, B.P., Donnelly, J.P., Corbett, D.R., Kemp, A.C., Lane, P., Mann, M.E., and Peltier, W.R., Science needs for sea-level adaptation planning: comparisons among three U.S. Atlantic coast regions, Coastal Management, 43, 555-574, 2015. [altmetric]

Reed, A.J., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Lin, N., Horton, B., Kemp, A.C., Donnelly, J.P., Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 112, 12610-12615, 2015. [altmetric]

Frankcombe, L.M., England, M.H., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Separating internal variability from the externally forced climate response, J. Climate, 28, 8184-8202, 2015. [altmetric]

Cowtan, K., Hausfather, Z., Hawkins, E., Jacobs, P., Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., Steinman, B.A., Stolpe, M.B., Way, R.G., Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 6526–6534, doi:10.1002/2015GL064888, 2015. [altmetric]

Reed, A.J., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Titley, D.W., An analysis of long-term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res. 120, 7506-7519, doi:10.1002/2015JD023357, 2015. [altmetric]

Oreskes, N., Carlat, D., Mann, M.E., Thacker, P.D., vom Saal, F.S., Why Disclosure Matters, Environmental Science & Technology, 49, 7527-7528, 2015. [altmetric]

Halpern, M., Mann, M., Transparency Versus Harassment (editorial), Science, 479, 348, 2015. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Gleick, P.H., Climate Change and California Drought in the 21st Century, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 112, 3858-3859, 2015. [altmetric]

Rahmstorf, S., Box, J., Feulner, G., Mann, M.E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., Schaffernicht, E. Exceptional 20th-Century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning, Nature Climate Change, 5, 475–480, 2015. [altmetric]

Ross, A.C., Najjar, R.G., Li, M., Mann, M.E., Ford, S.E., Katz, B., Influences on decadal-scale variations of salinity in a coastal plain estuary, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 157, 79-92, 2015. [altmetric]

Steinman, B.A., Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures, Science, 347, 998-991, 2015. [supplement] [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., The Serengeti strategy: How special interests try to intimidate scientists, and how best to fight back, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 71, 33-45, 2015. [altmetric]

Paaijmans, K.P., Blanford, J.I., Crane, R.G., Mann, M.E., Ning, L., Schreiber, K.V., Thomas M.B.,Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission, Climatic Change, 125, 479-488, 2014. [altmetric]

Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Missing tree rings and the AD 774-775 radiocarbon event, Nature Climate Change, 4, 648-649, 2014. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., On Forced Temperature Changes, Internal Variability and the AMO, Geophys. Res. Lett. (“Frontier” article), 41, 3211-3219, doi:10.1002/2014GL059233, 2014. [supplement] [altmetric]

Singh, R., Wagener, T., Crane, R., Mann, M.E., Ning, L., A vulnerability driven approach to identify adverse climate and land use change combinations for critical hydrologic indicator thresholds – Application to a watershed in Pennsylvania, USA, Wat. Res. Res., 50, 3409-3427, doi:10.1002/2013WR014988, 2014. [altmetric]

Steinman, B.A., Abbott, M.B., Mann, M.E., Ortiz, J.D., Feng, S., Pompeani, D.P., Stansell, N.D., Anderson, L., Finney, B.P., Bird, B.W., Ocean-atmosphere forcing of centennial hydroclimate variability in the Pacific Northwest, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2553-2560, doi:10.1002/2014GL059499, 2014. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., False Hope: The rate of global temperature rise may have hit a plateau, but a climate crisis still looms in the near future, Scientific American, 310, 78-81, 2014.

Schmidt, G.A., Annan, J.D., Bartlein, P.J., Cook, B.I., Guilyardi, E., Hargreaves, J.C., Harrison, S.P., Kageyama, M., LeGrande, A.N., Konecky, B., Lovejoy, S., Mann, M.E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Thompson, D., Timmermann, A., Tremblay, L.-B., Yiou, P., Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5, Climate of the Past, 10, 221-250, 2014. [altmetric]

Sriver, R.L., Timmermann, A., Mann, M.E., Keller, K., Goosse, H., Improved representation of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics in an intermediate complexity climate model, J. Climate, 27, 168-187, 2014. 

Kozar, M.E., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Evans, J.L., Long-term Variations of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from a Coupled Model Simulation of the Last Millennium, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 13383-13392, doi:10.1002/2013JD020380, 2013. [altmetric]

Lewandowsky, S., Mann, M.E., Bauld, L., Hastings, G., Loftus, E.F., The Subterranean War on Science, The Observer (Association for Psychological Science), 26, 9, 2013. [External Link]

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Schurer, A., Tett, S.F.B., Fuentes, J.D., Discrepancies between the modeled and proxy-reconstructed response to volcanic forcing over the past millennium: Implications and possible mechanisms, J. Geophys. Res. 118, 7617-7627, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50609, 2013. [supplement] [altmetric]

Schurer, A., Hegerl, G., Mann, M.E., Tett, S.F.B., Separating forced from chaotic climate variability over the past millennium, J. Climate, 26, 6954-6973, 2013. [altmetric]

Rutherford, S.D., Mann, M.E., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Comment on: "Erroneous Model Field Representations in Multiple Pseudoproxy Studies: Corrections and Implications" by Jason E. Smerdon, Alexey Kaplan and Daniel E. Amrhein, J. Climate, 26, 3482-3484, 2013. [altmetric]

Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K.M., Mann, M.E., Wittenberg, A.T., Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST variability over the Past Millennium. Part 2: Reconstructions and Uncertainties, J. Climate, 26, 2329-2352, 2013. [altmetric]

Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K.M., Mann, M.E., Wittenberg, A.T., Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST variability over the Past Millennium. Part 1: Methodology and Validation, J. Climate, 26, 2302-2328, 2013. [altmetric]

Feng, S., Hu, Q., Wu, Q., Mann, M.E., A Gridded Reconstruction of Warm Season Precipitation for Asia Spanning the Past Half Millennium, J. Climate, 26, 2192-2204, 2013. [altmetric]

Blanford J.I., Blanford S., Crane R.G., Mann, M.E., Paaijmans K.P., Schreiber, K.V., Thomas, M.B., Implications of temperature variation for malaria parasite development across Africa, Scientific Reports, 3, 1300, doi:10.1038/srep01300, 2013. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Fuentes, J.D., Rutherford, S. Reply to "Tree-Rings and Volcanic Cooling", Nature Geoscience, 5, 837-838, 2012. [Supplementary Figure & Caption] [altmetric]

Goosse, H., Crespin, E., Dubinkina, S., Loutre, M., Mann, M.E., Renssen, H., Sallaz-Damaz, Y., Shindell, D.,The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the "Medieval Climate Anomaly", Climate Dynamics, 39, 2847-2866, 2012. [altmetric]

Kozar, M.E., Mann, M.E., Camargo, S.J., Kossin, J.P., Evans, J.L., Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D18103, doi:10.1029/2011JD017170, 2012. [supplement] [altmetric]

Ning, L., Mann, M.E., Crane, R., Wagener, T., Najjar, R.G., Singh, R., Probabilistic Projections of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States, J. Climate, 25, 5273-5291, 2012. 

Steinman, B.A., Abbott, M.B., Mann, M.E., Stansell, N.D., Finney, B.P, 1500 year quantitative reconstruction of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 109, 11619-11623, 2012. [altmetric]

Fan, F., Mann, M.E., Lee., S, Evans, J.L., Future Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon: An Analysis of the CMIP3 Multi-Model Projections, J. Climate, 25, 3909-3928, 2012. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Fuentes, J.D., Rutherford, S., Underestimation of Volcanic Cooling in Tree-Ring Based Reconstructions of Hemispheric Temperatures, Nature Geoscience, 5, 202-205, 2012. [supplement] [altmetric]

Goosse, H., Crespin, E., Dubinkina, S., Loutre, M., Mann, M.E., Renssen, H., Sallaz-Damaz, Y., Shindell, D.,The medieval climate anomaly in Europe: Comparison of the summer and annual mean signals in two reconstructions and in simulations with data assimilation, Global and Planetary Change, 84-85, 35-47, 2012. [altmetric]

Ning, L., Mann, M.E., Crane, R., Wagener, T., Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States - Validation of Precipitation Downscaling During the Historical Era, J. Climate, 25, 509-526, 2012. [altmetric]

Singh, R., Wagener, T., Van Werkhoven, K., Mann, M.E., Crane, R., A trading-space-for-time approach to probabilistic continuous streamflow predictions in a changing climate — accounting for changing watershed behavior, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1-13, 2011. 

Diaz, H.F., Trigo, R., Hughes, M.K., Mann, M.E., Xoplaki, E., Barriopedro, D., Spatial and temporal characteristics of climate in medieval times revisited,, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92, 1487-1500 2011. [altmetric]

Katz, B., Najjar, R.G., Cronin, T., Rayburn, J., Mann, M.E., Constraints on Lake Agassiz discharge through the late-glacial Champlain Sea (St. Lawrence Lowlands, Canada) using salinity proxies and an estuarine circulation model, Quat. Sci. Rev., 30, 3248-3257, 2011.

Kemp, A.C., Horton, B.P., Donnelly, J.P., Mann, M.E., Vermeer, M., Rahmstorf, S., Reply to Grinsted et al.: Estimating land subsidence in North Carolina, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 108, E783, 2011.

Mann, M.E., On long range dependence in global surface temperature series: An editorial comment, Climatic Change, 107, 267-276, 2011. [altmetric]

Kemp, A.C., Horton, B.P., Donnelly, J.P., Mann, M.E., Vermeer, M., Rahmstorf, S., Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 108, 11017-11022, 2011. [altmetric]

Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S.D., A comment on "A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?" by McShane and Wyner, Ann. Appl. Stat., 5, 65-70, 2011. [supplement] 

Bowman, T.E., Maibach, E., Mann, M.E., Somerville, R.C.J., Seltser, B.J., Fischhoff, B., Gardiner, S.M., Gould, R.J., Leiserowitz, A., Yohe, G., Time to Take Action on Climate Communication, Science, 330, 1044, 2010. [altmetric]

Sriver, R.L., Goes, M., Mann, M.E., Keller, K., Climate response to tropical cyclone-induced ocean mixing in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, J. Geophys. Res., 115, C10042, doi:10.1029/2010JC006106, 2010. [altmetric]

Fan, F., Mann, M.E., Lee., S, Evans, J.L., Observed and Modeled Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon over the Historical Period, J. Climate, 23, 5193-5205, 2010. [altmetric]

Rutherford, S.D, Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Wahl, E.R., Comment on: "A surrogate ensemble study of climate reconstruction methods: Stochasticity and robustness" by Christiansen, Schmith and Thejll., J. Climate, 23, 2832-2838, 2010. 

Foster, G., Annan, J.D., Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Mullan, B., Renwick, J., Salinger, J., Schmidt, G.A., Trenberth, K.E., Comment on "Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature" by J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter., J. Geophys. Res., 115, D09110, doi:10.1029/2009JD012960, 2010. [altmetric]

Goosse, H., Crespin, E., de Montety, A., Mann, M.E., Renssen, H., Timmermann, A., Reconstructing surface temperature changes over the past 600 years using climate model simulations with data assimilation, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D09108, doi:10.1029/2009JD012737, 2010.

Mann, M.E., Zhang, Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Shindell, D., Ammann, C., Faluvegi, G., Ni, F., Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 326, 1256-1260, 2009. [supplement] [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Woodruff, J.D., Donnelly, J.P., Zhang, Z., Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years, Nature, 460, 880-883, 2009. [supplement] [altmetric]

Crespin, E., Goosse, H., Fichefet, T., Mann, M.E., The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation, Climate of the Past, 5, 389-405, 2009. 

Bowman, T.E., Maibach, E., Mann, M.E., Moser, S.C., Somerville, R.C.J., Creating a common climate language, Science, 324, 37, 2009. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Do Global Warming and Climate Change Represent a Serious Threat to our Welfare and Environment, Social Philosophy and Policy, 26, 389-405, 2009. 

Malone, R.W., Meek, D.W., Hatfield, J.L., Mann, M.E., Jaquis, R.J., Ma, L., Quasi-Biennial Corn Yield Cycles in Iowa, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 1087-1094, 2009.

Fan, F., Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Understanding Changes in the Asian Summer Monsoon over the Past Millennium: Insights From a Long-Term Coupled Model Simulation, J. Climate, 22, 1736-1748, 2009. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A., Miller, S.K., LeGrande, A.N., Potential biases in inferring Holocene temperature trends from long-term borehole information, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05708, doi:10.1029/2008GL036354, 2009. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Defining Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, 4065-4066, 2009. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Reply to McIntyre and McKitrick: Proxy-based temperature reconstructions are robust, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, E11, 2009. [altmetric]

Steig, E.J., Schneider, D.P. Rutherford, S.D., Mann, M.E., Comiso, J.C., Shindell, D.T., Warming of the Antarctic ice sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year, Nature, 1457, 459-463, 2009.
[Corrigendum (Steig et al, 2009)] [altmetric]

Jones, P.D., Briffa, K.R., Osborn, T.J., Lough, J.M., van Ommen, T.D., Vinther, B.M., Luterbacher, J., Wahl, E.R., Zwiers, F.W., Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A., Ammann, C.M., Buckley, B.M., Cobb, K.M., Esper, J., Goosse, H., Graham, N., Jansen, E., Kiefer, T, Kull, C., Kuttel, M., Mosely-Thompson, E., Overpeck, J.T., Riedwyl, N., Schulz, M., Tudhope, A.W., Villalba, R., Wanner, H., Wolff, E., Xoplaki, E., High-resolution paleoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects, Holocene, 19, 3-49, 2009. [altmetric]

Wei, F., Xie, Y., Mann, M.E. Probabilistic trend of anomalous summer rainfall in Beijing: Role of interdecadal variability, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20106, doi:10.1029/2008JD010111, 2008. 

Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Reply to: "Comment on 'Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods', by Mann et al.", J. Geophys. Res., 113, D18107, doi:10.1029/2008JD009964, 2008. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Zhang, Z., Hughes, M.K., Bradley, R.S., Miller, S.K., Rutherford, S., Proxy-Based Reconstructions of Hemispheric and Global Surface Temperature Variations over the Past Two Millennia, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 105, 13252-13257, 2008. [supplement] [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Smoothing of Climate Time Series Revisited, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L16708, doi:10.1029/2008GL034716, 2008. [supplement] [altmetric]

Foster, G., Annan, J.D., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Comment on "Heat Capacity, Time Constant, and Sensitivity of Earth's Climate System" by S. E. Schwartz, J. Geophys. Res., 113, L22707, D15102, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009373, 2008. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Sabbatelli, T.A., Neu, U., Evidence for a Modest Undercount Bias in Early Historical Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22707, doi:10.1029/2007GL031781, 2007. [supplement] [altmetric]

Delworth, T.L., Zhang, R., Mann, M.E., Decadal to Centennial Variability of the Atlantic from Observations and Models, in Past and Future Changes of the Oceans Meridional Overturning Circulation: Mechanisms and Impacts, A. Schmittner, J. C. H. Chiang, and S.R. Hemming (eds), Geophysical Monograph Series 173, American Geophysical Union, 131-148, 2007. 

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Reply to Comments on "Testing the Fidelity of Methods Used in Proxy-based Reconstructions of Past Climate" by Smerdon and Kaplan, J. Climate, 20, 5671-5674, 2007. [altmetric]

Sabbatelli, T.A., Mann, M.E., The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17114, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008385, 2007. [supplement] 

Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Holland, G.J., Webster, P.J., Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Revisited, Eos, 88, 36, p. 349-350, 2007. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Reply to Comments on "Testing the Fidelity of Methods Used in Proxy-based Reconstructions of Past Climate" by Zorita et al, J. Climate, 20, 3699-3703, 2007. [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Robustness of Proxy-Based Climate Field Reconstruction Methods, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12109, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008272, 2007. [supplement] [altmetric]

Mann, M.E., Climate Over the Past Two Millennia, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 35, 111-136, 2007. 
[electronic reprint in html or pdf format (personal use only)]

Mann, M.E., Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., Kiefer, T., Kull, C., Wanner, H., Past Millennia Climate Variability,Eos, 87, 526-527, 2006.

Goosse, H., Arzel, O., Luterbacher, J., Mann, M.E., Renssen, H., Riedwyl, N., Timmermann, A., Xoplaki, E., Wanner, H., The origin of the European "Medieval Warm Period", Climate of the Past, 2, 99-113, 2006.

Goosse, H., Renssen, H., Timmermann, A., Bradley, R.S., Mann, M.E., Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium, Climate Dynamics, 27, 165-184, 2006.

Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. [supplement]

Mann, M.E., Climate Changes Over the Past Millennium: Relationships with Mediterranean Climates, Nuovo Cimento C, 29, 73-80, 2006.

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Testing the Fidelity of Methods Used in Proxy-based Reconstructions of Past Climate, Journal of Climate, 18, 4097-4107, 2005.

Knight, J.R., Allan, R.J., Folland, C.K., Vellinga, M., Mann, M.E., A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L20708, doi:10.1029/2005GL024233, 2005.

Cronin, T.M., Thunell, R., Dwyer, G.S., Saenger, C., Mann, M.E., Vann, C., Seal, R.R. II, Multiproxy evidence of Holocene climate variability from estuarine sediments, eastern North America, Paleoceanography, 20, PA4006, doi: 10.1029/2005PA001145, 2005.

Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Osborn, T.J., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Methodology, Predictor Network, Target Season and Target Domain, Journal of Climate, 18, 2308-2329, 2005.

Cook, B.I., Smith, T.M., Mann, M.E., The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over Europe, Global Change Biology, 11, 919-926, 2005.

Frauenfeld, O.W., Davis, R.E., Mann, M.E., A Distinctly Interdecadal Signal of Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, Journal of Climate, 18, 1709-1718, 2005.

Mann, M.E., Cane, M.A., Zebiak, S.E., Clement, A., Volcanic and Solar Forcing of the Tropical Pacific Over the Past 1000 Years, Journal of Climate, 18, 447-456, 2005.

D'Arrigo, R.D., Cook, E.R., Wilson, R.J., Allan, R., Mann, M.E., On the Variability of ENSO Over the Past Six Centuries, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L03711, doi: 10.1029/2004GL022055, 2005.

Zhang, Z., Mann, M.E., Coupled Patterns of Spatiotemporal Variability in Northern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure and Conterminous U.S. Drought, Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D03108, doi: 10.1029/2004JD004896, 2005.

Schmidt, G.A., Shindell, D.T., Miller, R.L., Mann, M.E., Rind, D., General Circulation Modeling of Holocene climate variability, Quaternary Science Reviews, 23, 2167-2181, 2004.

Cook, B.I., Mann, M.E., D'Odorico, P., Smith, T.M., Statistical Simulation of the Influence of the NAO on European Winter Surface Temperatures: Applications to Phenological Modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D16106, doi: 10.1029/2003JD004305, 2004.

Zhang, Z., Mann, M.E., Cook, E.R., Alternative methods of proxy-based climate field reconstruction: application to summer drought over the conterminous United States back to AD 1700 from tree-ring data, The Holocene, 14, 502-516, 2004.

Andronova, N.G., Schlesinger, M.E., Mann, M.E., Are Reconstructed Pre-Instrumental Hemispheric Temperatures Consistent With Instrumental Hemispheric Temperatures?, Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L12202, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019658, 2004.

Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Climate Over Past Millennia, Reviews of Geophysics, 42, RG2002, doi: 10.1029/2003RG000143, 2004.

Mann, M.E., On Smoothing Potentially Non-Stationary Climate Time Series, Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L07214, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019569, 2004. [supplement]

Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Reply to comment on "Ground vs. surface air temperature trends: Implications for borehole surface temperature reconstructions" by D. Chapman et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L07206, doi: 10.1029/2003GL0119144, 2004.

L'Heureux, M.L., Mann, M.E., Cook B.I., Gleason, B.E., Vose, R.S., Atmospheric Circulation Influences on Seasonal Precipitation Patterns in Alaska during the latter 20th Century, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D06106, doi:10.1029/2003JD003845, 2004.

Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Faluvegi, G., Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D05104, doi: 10.1029/2003JD004151, 2004.

Adams, J.B., Mann, M.E., D'Hondt, S., The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction: Modeling carbon flux and ecological response, Paleoceanography, 19, PA1002, doi: 10.1029/2002PA000849, 2004.

Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Miller, R.L., Mann, M.E., Volcanic and Solar Forcing of Climate Change during the Preindustrial Era, Journal of Climate, 16, 4094-4107, 2003.

Adams, J.B., Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Proxy Evidence for an El Nino-like Response to Volcanic Forcing, Nature, 426, 274-278, 2003.

Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Oppenheimer, M., Osborn, T.J., Overpeck, J. T., Rutherford, S., Trenberth, K.E., Wigley, T.M.L., Response to Comment on 'On Past Temperatures and Anomalous Late 20th Century Warmth', Eos, 84, 473, 2003.

Mann, M.E., Paleoclimate, Global Change, and the Future (book review), Eos, 84, 419-420, 2003.

Mann, M.E., Jones, P.D., Global surface temperature over the past two millennia, Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (15), 1820, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017814, 2003.

Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Oppenheimer, M., Osborn, T.J., Overpeck, J.T., Rutherford, S., Trenberth, K.E., Wigley, T.M.L., On Past Temperatures and Anomalous Late 20th Century Warmth, Eos, 84, 256-258, 2003.

Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A., Ground vs. Surface Air Temperature Trends: Implications for Borehole Surface Temperature Reconstructions,Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (12), 1607, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017170, 2003.

Andrews, J.T., Hardadottir, J., Stoner, J.S., Mann, M.E., Kristjansdottir, G.B., Koc, N., Decadal to Millennial-scale periodicities in North Iceland shelf sediments over the last 12,000 cal yrs: long-term North Atlantic oceanographic variability and Solar Forcing, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 210, 453-465, 2003.

D'Arrigo, R.D., Cook, E.R., Mann, M.E., Jacoby, G.C., Tree-ring reconstructions of temperature and sea-level pressure variability associated with the warm-season Arctic Oscillation since AD 1650, Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (11), 1549, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017250, 2003.

Covey, C., AchutaRao, K.M., Cubasch, U., Jones, P.D., Lambert, S.J., Mann, M.E., Philips, T.J., Taylor, K.E., An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Global and Planetary Change, 37, 103-133, 2003.

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Keimig, F.T., Optimal Surface Temperature Reconstructions using Terrestrial Borehole Data, Journal of Geophysical Research, 108 (D7), 4203, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002532, 2003.
[Correction (Rutherford and Mann, 2004)]

Braganza, K., Karoly, D.J., Hirst, A.C., Mann, M.E., Stott, P, Stouffer, R.J., Tett, S.F.B., Simple indices of global climate variability and change: Part I - variability and correlation structure, Climate Dynamics, 20, 491-502, 2003.

Gerber, S., Joos, F., Bruegger, P.P., Stocker, T.F., Mann, M.E., Sitch, S., Constraining Temperature Variations over the last Millennium by Comparing Simulated and Observed Atmospheric CO2, Climate Dynamics, 20, 281-299, 2003.

Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Delworth, T.L., Stouffer, R., Climate Field Reconstruction Under Stationary and Nonstationary Forcing, Journal of Climate, 16, 462-479, 2003.

Druckenbrod, D., Mann, M.E., Stahle, D.W., Cleaveland, M.K., Therrell, M.D., Shugart, H.H., Late 18th Century Precipitation Reconstructions from James Madison's Montpelier Plantation, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84, 57-71, 2003.

Ribera, P., Mann, M.E., ENSO related variability in the Southern Hemisphere, 1948-2000, Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (1), 1006, doi: 10.1029/2002GL015818, 2003.

Ghil, M., Allen, M.R., Dettinger, M.D., Ide, K., Kondrashov, D., Mann, M.E., Robertson, A.W., Tian, Y., Varadi, F., Yiou, P., Advanced Spectral Methods for Climatic Time Series, Reviews of Geophysics, 40 (1), 1003, doi: 10.1029/2000RG000092, 2002.

Mann, M.E. Large-Scale Climate Variability and Connections With the Middle East in Past Centuries, Climatic Change, 55, 287-314, 2002.

Mann, M.E., The Value of Multiple Proxies, Science, 297, 1481-1482, 2002.

Cook, E.R., D'Arrigo, R.D., Mann, M.E., A Well-Verified, Multi-Proxy Reconstruction of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Since AD 1400, J. Climate, 15, 1754-1765, 2002.

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Climate Reconstruction Using 'Pseudoproxies', Geophysical Research Letters, 29 (10), 1501, doi: 10.1029/2001GL014554, 2002.

Ribera, P., Mann, M.E., Interannual variability in the NCEP Reanalysis 1948-1999, Geophysical Research Letters, 29 (10), 1494, doi: 10.1029/2001GL013905, 2002.

Mann, M.E., Hughes, M.K., Tree-Ring Chronologies and Climate Variability, Science, 296, 848, 2002.

Waple, A., Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Long-term Patterns of Solar Irradiance Forcing in Model Experiments and Proxy-based Surface Temperature Reconstructions, Climate Dynamics, 18, 563-578, 2002.

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Cole, J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, J.M., Overpeck, J.T., von Storch, H., Wanner, H., Weber, S.L., Widmann, M., Reconstructing the Climate of the Late Holocene, Eos, 82, 553, 2001.

Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E.,Mann, M.E. Medieval Climatic Optimum, Encylopedia of Global Environmental Change,John Wiley and Sons Ltd, London, UK, pp. 514-516, 2001.

Mann, M.E. Little Ice Age, Encylopedia of Global Environmental Change, John Wiley and Sons Ltd, London, UK, pp. 504-509, 2001.

Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Rind, D., Waple, A., Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum, Science, 7, 2149-2152, 2001.

Mann, M.E., Large-scale Temperature Patterns in Past Centuries: Implications for North American Climate Change, Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 7, 1247-1254, 2001.

Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Scope of Medieval Warming, Science, 292, 2011-2012, 2001.

Mann, M.E. Climate During the Past Millennium, Weather (invited contribution), 56, 91-101, 2001.

Folland, C.K., Karl, T.R., Christy, J.R., Clarke, R. A., Gruza, G.V., Jouzel, J., Mann, M.E., Oerlemans, J., Salinger, M.J., Wang, S.-W., Observed Climate Variability and Change, in 2001 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 99-181, 2001. [External Link]

Cullen, H., D'Arrigo, R., Cook, E., and Mann, M.E., Multiproxy-based reconstructions of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the past three centuries, Paleoceanography, 15, 27-39, 2001.

Mann, M.E., Gille, E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Overpeck, J.T., Keimig, F.T., Gross, W., Global Temperature Patterns in Past Centuries: An interactive presentation, Earth Interactions, 4-4, 1-29, 2000. [External Link]

Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Mann, M.E., Comments on 'Detection and Attribution of Recent Climate Change: A Status Report', Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81, 2987-2990, 2000.

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Long-term variability in the El Nino Southern Oscillation and associated teleconnections, Diaz, H.F. and Markgraf, V. (eds) El Nino and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Variability and its Impacts on Natural Ecosystems and Society, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 357-412, 2000.

Delworth, T.L., and Mann, M.E., Observed and Simulated Multidecadal Variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Climate Dynamics, 16, 661-676, 2000.

Mann, M.E., Lessons For a New Millennium, Science, 289, 253-254, 2000.

Rittenour, T., Brigham-Grette, J., Mann, M.E., El Nino-like Climate Teleconnections in North America During the Late Pleistocene: Insights From a New England Glacial Varve Chronology, Science, 288, 1039-1042, 2000.

Park, J., Mann, M.E.Interannual Temperature Events and Shifts in Global Temperature: A Multiple Wavelet Correlation Approach, Earth Interactions, 4-001,1-36, 2000.

Mann, M.E., Park, J, Oscillatory Spatiotemporal Signal Detection in Climate Studies: A Multiple-Taper Spectral Domain Approach, Advances in Geophysics, 41, 1-131, 1999. (click here for version w/ color figures) [supplement]

Jain, S., Lall, U., Mann, M.E., Seasonality and Interannual Variations of Variations of Northern Hemisphere Temperature: Equator-to-Pole Gradient and Land-Ocean Contrast, Journal of Climate, 12, 1086-1100, 1999.

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K., Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations, Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 759-762, 1999. [supplement]

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K. and Jones, P.D., Global Temperature Patterns, Science, 280, 2029-2030, 1998.

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K. Global-Scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing Over the Past Six Centuries, Nature, 392, 779-787, 1998. 
[Corrigendum (Mann, Bradley, and Hughes, 2004)] [supplement]

Rajagopalan, B., Mann, M.E., and Lall, U., A Multivariate Frequency-Domain Approach to Long-Lead Climatic Forecasting, Weather and Forecasting, 13, 58-74, 1998.

Beniston, M., Pielke, R.A., Arpe, K., Keuler, K., Laprise, R., Mann, M.E., Rinke, A., Parker, D.E., Climate Modelers Meet in Switzerland, Eos, 78, 383, 1997.

Mann, M.E., Park, J., Joint Spatio-Temporal Modes of Surface Temperature and Sea Level Pressure Variability in the Northern Hemisphere During the Last Century, Journal of Climate, 9, 2137-2162, 1996.

Mann, M.E., Lees. J., Robust Estimation of Background Noise and Signal Detection in Climatic Time Series, Climatic Change, 33, 409-445, 1996. [supplement]

Koch, D., Mann, M.E., Spatial and Temporal Variability of 7Be Surface Concentrations, Tellus, 48B, 387-396, 1996.

Abarbanel, H., Lall, U., Moon, Y.I., Mann, M.E., Sangoyomi, T., Nonlinear dynamics and the Great Salt Lake: A Predictable Indicator of Regional Climate, Energy, 21, 655-665, 1996.

Mann, M.E., Park, J., Greenhouse Warming and Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Temperature: Model Versus Observations, Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 1111-1114, 1996. [supplement]

Mann, M.E., Park, J., Bradley, R.S., Global Interdecadal and Century-Scale Climate Oscillations During the Past Five Centuries, Nature, 378, 266-270, 1995.

Lall, U., Mann, M.E., The Great Salt Lake: A Barometer of Low-Frequency Climatic Variability, Water Resources Research, 31,2503-2515, 1995.

Mann, M.E., Lall, U., Saltzman, B., Decadal-to-century scale climate variability: Insights into the Rise and Fall of the Great Salt Lake, Geophysical Research Letters, 22, 937-940, 1995.

Marshall, S., Mann, M.E., Oglesby, R., Saltzman, B., A comparison of the CCM1-simulated climates for pre-industrial and present-day C02 levels, Global and Planetary Change, 10, 163-180, 1995.

Mann, M.E., Park, J., Global scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century time scales, Journal of Geophysical Research, 99, 25819-25833, 1994.

Mann, M.E., Park, J., Spatial Correlations of Interdecadal Variation in Global Surface Temperatures, Geophysical Research Letters, 20, 1055-1058, 1993.

 

David Spratt has been Climate Research Coordinator for the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration (Melbourne) since 2014. He was co-founder of the Climate Action Centre (2009-2012). Below are a few of the research papers he has published which have been relevant to our climate analysis processes. While we mostly agree with his climate research, there are some minor areas in which we at Job One disagree.

WHAT LIES BENEATH: THE UNDERSTATEMENT OF EXISTENTIAL CLIMATE RISK Book Aug 2018.

Disaster Alley: Climate change, conflict and risk Book, June 2017

Antarctic Tipping Points for a Multi-metre Sea Level Rise Book, March 2017

Unstoppable fury Article

Climate 'code red Article

 

Peter Carter was an expert reviewer for the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) fifth climate change assessment (AR5, 2014) and the IPCC’s 2018 Special Report on 1.5ºC. In 2018, he published Unprecedented Crime: Climate Science Denial and Game Changers for Survival, which he co-authored with Elizabeth Woodworth. He is published on climate change, biodiversity, and environmental health. Here is Peter Carter's the presented or published climate work:

Ongoing 2020-21  review of the IPCC 6th Assessment  

AGU  Dec 2020  Town Hall The greenhouse gas Earth emergency: The legacy of many — now unavoidable — Earth system and human system impacts

AGU Dec 2020 Utilizing the IPCC for communicating both the full extent of the climate emergency and the required response 

Expert reviewer IPCC  2018 1.5C Special Report 

Expert reviewer of IPCC 2014 5th assessment 

Encyclopedia of Sustainable Development Goals 2019 Environmental health assessment chapter 

Handbook of Climate Change and Biodiversity 2018 Emergency Chapter

Vienna (April 2017) From up-to-date climate and ocean evidence with updated UN emissions projections, the time is now for science to recommend an immediate massive effort on CO2. at the European Geoscience Union Assembly

San Francisco (December 2016) - Climate Golden Age or Greenhouse Gas Dark Age? at the Annual Geophysical Union conference. 

Denver, Colorado (September 2016) – The policy relevance of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration trends to 2016, at the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Science Conference

Oxford, UK (September 2016) – An illustrated guide to the 1.5ºC and 2ºC policy target options, at the 1.5 Degrees: Meeting the Challenges of the Paris Agreement Conference  

Vancouver (2015) – Environmental Health Risk Assessment to Correct Climate Change Policymaking Failure, at the 7th International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts and Responses

San Francisco (2014) – Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change, at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Conference 

Honolulu (2014) – Is committed ocean warming and acidification a planetary emergency? at 2014 Ocean Sciences Meeting 

San Francisco (2013) – Is the world in a state of committed global climate change planetary emergency? at American Geophysical Union (AGU) Conference

London (2013) – Radical climate change science for rapid radical emissions reductions, at Tyndall Centre's Radical Emissions Reduction Conference 

Potsdam, Germany (2013) – Committed unavoidable global warming and Northern Hemisphere food security implications to 2100, at IMPACTS WORLD 2013: International Conference on Climate Change Effects (http://www.climate-impacts-2013.org/files/cwi_carter.pdf)

Nairobi, Kenya (2013) – Committed Global Climate Change and African Food Security, at the First Africa Food Security and Adaptation Conference: Harnessing Ecosystem-based Approaches for Food Security and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa

Vancouver (2013) – The compelling case in climate change science for an emergency upgrading of Arctic monitoring capacities, at Arctic Observing Summit

Vienna (2013) – Is the world in a state of climate change planetary emergency? at European Geophysical Union Conference 

Philippines (2012) – Unavoidable global warming commitment and its food security, impacts and risks, implications focused on South East Asia, at International Conference on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Food and Environmental Security 

Seattle (2012) – Committed global climate change and food security: Linking the unavoidable lags between rapid emissions reduction for climate stabilization on crop yields using climate crop model projections, at 4th International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts and Responses (http://ijc.cgpublisher.com/product/pub.185/prod.180)

Edmonton (2012) – Linking fossil fuel resource development with the environmental health risks of global climate change, particularly to the global south, for planning mitigation responses, at 8th International Symposium on Society and Resource Management 

 

Other Job One for Humanity References in addition to what is found on our website pages and end notes

Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, Feng He, Nathaniel A. Lifton, Zhengyu Liu, & Bette L. Otto-Bliesner. "Regional and global forcing of glacier retreat during the last deglaciation." Nature Communications, 5, no. 8059 (2015). doi: DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9059

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "Meridional Overturning Circulation." NOAA.gov. Last modified November 10, 2016. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/research/moc/namoc/

Hansen, J., Sato, M., Hearty, P., Ruedy, R., Kelley, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., Russell, G., Tselioudis, G., Cao, J., Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., Tormey, B., Donovan, B., Kandiano, E., von Schuckmann, K., Kharecha, P., Legrande, A. N., Bauer, M., and Lo, K.-W. "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed., “Sea Level Change,” in Climate Change 2013 - The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY (2013): 1137–1216, doi:10.1017/ CBO9781107415324.026

David Spratt. "Climate Reality Check." Breakthrough - National Centre for Climate Restoration. March 2016. http://media.wix.com/ugd/148cb0_4868352168ba49d89358a8a01bc5f80f.pdf

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. "U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters." NOAA.gov. 2016. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

Hansen, James, et al. "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?" The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, no. 1 (2008): 217-231. DOI: 10.2174/1874282300802010217

Hansen, J., et al.. "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous." Atmos.Chem.Phys.net, 16, (2015): doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, 2016.

Nicholas Stern. "Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change." UK Government Web Archive. Last modified July 4, 2010. http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100407172811/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/stern_review_report.htm

Gernot Wagner and Martin Weitzman, Climate Shock (Princeton University Press; April 2016).

A. Dutton, A. E. Carlson, A. J. Long, G. A. Milne, P. U. Clark, R. Deconto, B. P. Horton, S. Rahmstorf, M. E. Raymo, "Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods." Science, July 10, 2015. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/349/6244/aaa4019

Hansen, James, et al. "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?" The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, no. 1 (2008): 217-231. DOI: 10.2174/1874282300802010217

“Scientific consensus: Earth's climate is warming." Climate.Nasa.Gov. Last modified January 24, 2017. http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
90 Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller, eds., "Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change," (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1/

M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Linda Doman. "EIA projects 48% increase in world energy consumption by 2040." U.S. Energy Information Administration. May 12, 2016. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26212

Data from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. "The World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision." UN.org. July 29, 2015. http://www.un.org/en[…]”

Hansen, James, et al. "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?" The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, no. 1 (2008): 217-231. DOI: 10.2174/1874282300802010217

Tim Garrett. "The physics of long-run global economic growth." Utah.edu. 2014. http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~tgarrett/Economics/Economics.html

Tim Garrett. "No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change." arXiv. January 9 2012. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1010.0428v3.pdf

Tim Garrett, interview by Alex Smith, Radio Ecoshock, October 19, 2011, transcript. http://www.ecoshock.org/downloads/climate2010/ES_Garrett_101119_LoFi.mp3

Hansen, James, et al. "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?" The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, no. 1 (2008): 217-231. DOI: 10.2174/1874282300802010217

Veerasamy Sejian, Iqbal Hyder, T. Ezeji, J. Lakritz, Raghavendra Bhatta, J. P. Ravindra, Cadaba S. Prasad, Rattan Lal. "Global Warming: Role of Livestock." Climate Change Impact on Livestock: Adaptation and Mitigation. Springer India (2015): 141-169, doi: 10.1007/978-81-322-2265-1_10

Books

Basseches, Micheal. Dialectical thinking and Adult Development. Ablex Publishing, 1984.

Beinhocker, Eric D. The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Economics and What it Means for Business in Society. Harvard Business Review Press, 2007.

Berry, Thomas. The Great Work: Our Way Into the Future. Broadway Books, 2000.

Bhaskar, Roy. Dialectic: The Pulse of Freedom. Verso, 1993.
Carson, Rachel. Silent Spring. Houghton Mifflin, 1962.

Craven, Greg. What's the Worst That Could Happen?: A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate. Perigee, 2009.

Diamond, Jared. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Penguin Books, 2011.

Esbjorn-Hargens, Sean and and Michael E. Zimmerman. Integral Ecology: Uniting Multiple Perspectives on the Natural World. Integral Books, 2009.

Fisher, Len. Crashes, Crises, and Calamities: How We Can Use Science to Read the Early-Warning Signs. Basic Books, 2011.

Funk, McKenzie. Windfall: The Booming Business of Global Warming. Penguin Press, 2014.

Greer, John M. Dark Age in America: Climate Change, Cultural Collapse, and the Hard Future Ahead. New Society Publishers, 2016.

Guzman, Andrew T. Overheated: The Human Cost of Climate Change. Oxford University Press, 2014.

Hansen, James. Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity. Bloomsbury, 2009.

Jantsch, Erich. Design for Evolution: Self-Organization and Planning in the Life of Human Systems. George Braziller, 1975.

Klein, Naomi. This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate. Simon & Schuster, 2014.

LaConte, Ellen. Life Rules: Nature's Blueprint for Surviving Economic & Environmental Collapse. New Society Publishers, 2012.

Laske, Otto E. Measuring Hidden Dimensions Volume 2: Laske and Associates, 2011.

Lovelock, James. The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning. Basic Books, 2009.

Lynus, Mark. Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet. National Geographic, 2008.

Macy, Joanna and Chris Johnstone. Active Hope: How to Face the Mess We're In Without Going Crazy. New World Library, 2012.

Meadows, Donella H. Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Chelsea Green Publishing, 2008.

Miller, Peter. "Cool It: The Climate Issue." National Geographic, November 2015. Print.

Newitz, Annalee. Scatter, Adapt, and Remember: How Humans Will Survive a Mass Extinction. Doubleday, 2013.

Rich, Nathaniel. Odds Against Tomorrow. Farrah, Strauss and Giroux, 2013

Rifkin, Jeremy. The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power Is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World. St. Martin's Press, 2011.

Sahtouris, Elisabet. EarthDance: Living Systems in Evolution. iUniverse, 2000.

Salthe, Stanley N. Evolving Hierarchical Systems. Columbia University Press, 1985.

Stewart, John. Evolution's Arrow: The Direction of Evolution and the Future of Humanity. Chapman Press, 2000.

Tainter, Joseph A. The Collapse of Complex Societies (New Studies in Archaeology). Cambridge University Press, 1988.

Taleb, Nassim N. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House, 2007.

Wagner, Gernot, and Martin L. Weitzsman, Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet. Princeton University Press, 2015.”

Wollersheim, Lawrence “Climageddon: The Global Warming Emergency and How to Survive It.” Apple Books.

Other

University of Cambridge. "Emissions from melting permafrost could cost $43 trillion." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921112731.htm

Mason Inman. "Carbon is forever." Nature.com. November 20, 2008. http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0812/full/climate.2008.122.html

Show.earth. "Keeling Curve Monthly CO2 Widget." ProOxygen. https://www.show.earth/kc-monthly-co2-widget

"Jevons's paradox," When technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises because of increasing demand. From Wikipedia contributors, Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia.

Rohdes, Robert A. "Variations in concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during the last 400 thousand years." Digital image. Wikimedia Commons. December 21, 2009. Accessed January 11, 2017. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.png.”

Butler, Octavia E. Parable of the Sower. Four Walls Eight Windows, 1993. 

Butler, Octavia E. Parable of the Talents. Seven Stories Press, 1998. 

 

On this page you will also find the following essential sections:

1. The unique and powerful review processes that we use for research and analysis at our independent, not-for-profit climate think tank. 

2. The validity and reliability limits of the climate science found on the Job One For Humanity website.

3. How to challenge the accuracy of any climate information you see on our website.

We provide our climate and global heating information for individuals and organizations with the understanding that they will independently evaluate it and decide upon its usefulness and accuracy based on the best climate science and analysis currently available.

How Our Research, Review, and Analysis Processes are Unique 

Using the principles of system theory and dialectical metasystemic thinking applied to the climate as a complex adaptive system, we review and then analyze current and past climate change research and public climate summaries for:

1. errors, 

2. omissions, 

3. previously unrecognized positive or negative patterns in or between climate studies,

4. unseen interconnections or consequence connections within and between climate studies, and 

5. the unseen and hidden politicization, censorship, or the watering down of climate science by governmental agencies or other types of agents in public climate summary reports. 

The problems in 1-5 above can significantly affect the validity of current and future statements or positions concerning climate consequence timetables or the frequency, severity, and scale of climate consequences. Using system theory and dialectical metasystemic thinking applied to the climate as a complex adaptive system, we also review research papers and public statements on the climate for:

1. discernable or hidden biases, and

2. undeclared financial or other conflicts of interest.

The above two problems have recently become far more prevalent and have significantly underestimated negative climate consequences in public climate summaries and statements. Climate think tanks, individuals or groups operating as unknown fossil fuel lobbyists, and climate researchers funded by the fossil fuel-related industries have become the biggest offenders in this area. 

Instead of our analyzing only one area of specialized climate study like the oceans, glaciers, ice and snow packs, planetary temperature history, water vapor, soils, forests, or greenhouse gas factors on temperature and the atmosphere, we analyze climate research on how it holistically applies and interrelates to all different areas within and between the climate's interrelated, interconnected, and interdependent systems and subsystems. 

Using the tools of dialectical metasystemic thinking, we examine climate studies, their positions, and the related interactions of the climate system and subsystems through 28 different dialectical analysis perspectives and lenses. This allows us also to see, consider and value natural or human counteractions that may occur in response to the various primary and secondary consequences of climate change and global heating.

After that extensive analysis, we make climate consequence severity and time frame predictions and remedial recommendations for the correct global fossil fuel reduction amounts to minimize human loss and suffering. Our final analysis, forecasts, and recommendations always include all needed adjustments to compensate for any problems, errors, omissions, underestimation, or politicization which we discover in current climate research or summaries. Click here to see the many errors, underestimation, and politicization we found in a major recognized source of global climate research and recommendations. 

Unlike many other climate change think tanks, we do provide prioritized, critical-path, and deadline-driven solutions to the climate change emergency. These solutions are based upon accurate global fossil fuel reduction targets and avoiding the most dangerous climate tipping points and feedbacks deadlines that we currently face. 

Job One for Humanity is currently helping expose the current intense politicization of climate science. This intense politicization of science by the media, governments, and even the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) acts to forward a gross underestimation of our actual and current climate consequences, timeframes, remedies, and condition.

Unexpectedly, our independent climate change analysis has turned us into reluctant whistleblowers exposing how popular and politicized climate data has been distorted to serve the hidden interests of those who gain financially (or in other ways) from the ongoing global use of fossil fuels and hiding the real danger the public faces from the runaway global heating extinction emergency.

Please note that our education materials, because of their serious and adult nature are not meant for adolescents under 16! 

Important information about the validity and reliability of climate science found on the Job One For Humanity website

The scientific method deals in probabilities, not certainties. This is especially true for making climate change predictions, given the complexity of factors that interact to create the climate. While scientific findings on climate change necessarily include uncertainty, the process of deciding public policy for dealing with climate change seeks a certainty that science cannot provide.

In this situation, many concerned climate researchers and scientists urge the application of the precautionary principle. The precautionary principle asserts that policy-makers have a social responsibility to prevent public exposure to harm when scientific investigation has found a plausible risk — even though there can be no assertion of certain risk.

Climate science has shown we are well beyond mere plausible risk with today's runaway global heating emergency. Instead, we are now at probable to highly-probable climate risk levels. Therefore the precautionary principle must be applied and should've been used many decades ago.

Because climate science is constantly evolving and will always be some inherent level of uncertainty, we continually update our climate analysis and conclusions as new climate research becomes available. Wherever possible, we present predictive information in data ranges (such as carbon 425-450 ppm or temperature increases of 2 C to 2.7, etc.) Based on the climate data we are reviewing, we do our best to present what we understand to be the most accurate climate picture. However, as mentioned previously no one can establish 100% scientific certainty about any future phenomena. 

Therefore, we also maintain a wise and continual openness to scientific falsification. We invite our website visitors to make up their minds about the usefulness and validity of our current climate analysis, conclusions, and remedial action steps. And, if you see any error in our climate data, presentation, or predictions, please present your criticism and documentation to [email protected] for review.

We also acknowledge that due to the paucity of climate tipping point and climate feedback loop research, Job One for Humanity could be partially or even wholly wrong concerning any of its predictive climate analysis regarding future levels of average global temperature, atmospheric carbon, global warming consequences, global warming timetables, or correct global fossil fuel reduction targets.

We fully appreciate that the climate is a very complex adaptive system. Many unknowns remain about how it and its subsystems react with each other and with other human, geological and ecological systems outside the climate. 

If you wish to challenge the factualness of anything on our website, please see this page for how to do that.

 

How to challenge the accuracy of anything you see on our website

We openly invite anyone to challenge the correctness of our climate facts or analysis. If you have a legitimate, sincere and credible criticism and challenge, we do want to hear about it. We want to understand all credible challenges and review their science-based foundation, respond to it and if necessary, correct it on our website for the benefit of all.

However, not all published climate research is the same. The climate and global heating facts and analysis found on our website are derived from the published papers and research of independent and unbiased climate scientists and researchers without any vested financial interests in the outcomes of their research. Much of this research is from the same individuals who also submit their original research to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other governments or organizations.

We do not use fossil fuel industry funded think tank research unless we have independently vetted it for problems and errors. When we review climate research from government organizations like NOAA, we are particularly aware of the growing censorship and politically-motivated modification of their climate scientist's research.

This censorship and politicization is particularly true in fossil fuel-producing or dependent countries. Numerous government agencies have repeatedly been caught watering down or hiding critical climate findings to not scare the public or upset national fossil fuel-dependent industries with strong lobbyists. We have become painfully aware that the worse runaway global heating gets, the worse the government censorship and polarization of the actual climate facts has become.

We promote our climate data and analysis accuracy challenge regularly because we believe:

1. We are engaged with other climate researchers, our readers, and our critics in a mutual search for the most accurate climate facts and the best runaway global heating extinction emergency solutions. We also have learned much from outside legitimate science-based criticisms over the years.

2. We understand that our cutting-edge climate analysis and solutions will cause many individuals severe distress and emotional incongruence issues. This distress is because those individuals believed the watered-down versions of our climate condition and future coming from the heavily fossil fuel-influenced media, governments, and environmental groups. (The media, governments, and many environmental organizations are still blindly accepting and promoting  the seriously flawed climate summary reports of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control [IPCC.] Click here to read about the IPCC's many data reliability problems.)

When those individuals read our new climate analysis and climate solutions, many experience very high stress. Initially, and quite naturally, many react with strident denial or an immediate attack on the validity of the stressful information. They do this in part to emotionally and psychologically reconcile the enormous difference between what they have been told about the climate emergency by popular media and "authorities," and what they are reading on our website. Unfortunately, the first reaction of many of these distressed individuals is often a vague and generalized attack on our whole website, an article of ours, or our organization.

We understand that this is a natural reaction to shocking new climate data that, when accepted as accurate, will mean profound and significant changes to one's life plans and sense of safety and security. We truly understand how difficult it is to deal with this shock because we, too, have had to deal with the differences between what official governmental sources and what many of the climate "authorities" are telling us and what is actually in the uncensored climate science and unbiased analysis.

In fact, most of our key staff has been through the Kubler Ross method for dealing with the painful shock of finally understanding the runaway global heating emergency is far, far worse than we are being told! (We strongly suggest this page for anyone dealing with climate shock, anger, denial, anxiety, etc.)

Because we understand the value and importance of 1 and 2 above, we encourage any individual who is shocked or upset about our website's climate research, analysis, or solutions to challenge their accuracy using the criticism and challenge procedure listed below.

This procedure allows us to respond to all legitimate and sincere criticisms and challenges instead of trying to deal with generalized name-calling, insults, or vague or generalized attacks on our articles, website, or organization, for which, there are no effective or proactive ways to respond.  On the other hand, legitimate and sincere criticisms help us forward our non-profit mission goals on educating the public about our current runaway global heating extinction emergency.

To challenge anything you find on our website, please follow these simple guidelines:

Step 1: Be specific about what you are challenging. Include the exact statement or statements that you doubt or find wrong.

Being specific about some fact on our website you doubt or disagree with does not consist of generalized or vague statements or opinions like; "this is nonsense," "I do not like this fact or the way it makes me feel," "seems extreme," "scare tactics," "not enough documentation links," "this is BS," "people will give up hope because of this" or "who are your general authorities, etc."

Instead, please tell us precisely what statement you doubt or find incorrect. We are interested in your legitimate science-grounded criticisms, not in your generalized or vague opinions without credible science to back them up.

There is really nothing we can do to respond to vague, generalized opinions effectively. Still, with your submission of the precise statement(s) you disagree with and the climate science supporting your disagreement, we can engage in a proper academic dialogue that benefits both parties and eventually the general public.

Step 2: Include the climate research or studies that proves your point and demonstrates what we have said is wrong. (Referencing the specific sections of your research study that are most applicable is also helpful.)

We will carefully read the climate research study you send us and reply with either appropriate challenges to that study or results for other more current climate studies that support our position.

Step 3: Send your challenges to [email protected].

 

Our Advisory Board

Our climate research history

Job One For Humanity has been online since early 2008. Although there were earlier versions, the first complete version of the Job One For Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan was created in early 2011. It was designed to help address the lack of adequate progress in fixing climate change over the several preceding decades.

Other Links

Here is a link to our climate science glossary, which will be helpful in reading current climate science.

See the Job One For Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan here.

 

For answers to all of your remaining questions about climate change and global warming, click here for our new climate change FAQ. It has over one hundred of the most asked questions and answers about climate change.

David Spratt's writings have appeared in "The Guardian, “The Age”, “Rolling Stone”, “Energiewende Magazin" and "The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists", amongst others, and online sites including Climate Spectator, Crikey, Renew Economy and New Matilda. He blogs at climatecodered.org on climate science, existential risk, IPCC reticence, the climate emergency and climate movement strategy and communications, and is regular public speaker.

More climate published study references for our website materials

We are in the process of adding scores of additional published papers. This list should be here by July 30, 2022. 

Climate related reference books

We are in the process of adding scores of climate-related books we have referenced. This list should be here by July 30, 2022. 

 

How Our Research, Review, and Analysis Processes is Unique 

Using the principles of system theory and dialectical metasystemic thinking applied to the climate as a complex adaptive system, we review and then analyze the most recent climate change research for errors, omissions, and unrecognized patterns. These errors, omissions, and unrecognized patterns could significantly affect current and future climate consequences' frequency, severity, and scale. Using that same methodology, we also analyze the currently predicted climate timeframes or recommended climate remedies for errors, omissions, or unrecognized patterns. 

We also review all research papers for discernable biases, undeclared financial conflicts of interest, or politicization, which has recently become far more prevalent and usually significantly underestimates negative climate consequences. 

Instead of only analyzing only one niche of climate studies or of the climate system, we analyze current research for how it applies to all of the different areas within and between the climate's interrelated, interconnected, and interdependent systems and subsystems. Using the tools of dialectical metasystemic thinking, we examine climate studies and the related interactions of the climate system through 28 different dialectical analysis perspectives. 

After that extensive analysis process is completed, we make our climate consequence severity and time frame predictions and recommendations for the correct global fossil fuel reduction amounts. Our final analysis, forecasts, and recommendations then include all adjustments needed to compensate for the errors, underestimation, or politicization we discover in that climate research or summaries. Click here to see the errors, underestimation, and politicization we found in the major source of climate research. 

Unlike many other climate change think tanks, we do provide prioritized, critical-path, and deadline-driven solutions to the climate change emergency. These solutions are based on accurate global fossil fuel reduction targets and avoiding the most dangerous climate tipping points and feedbacks deadlines that we currently face. 

Job One for Humanity also exposes the current intense politicization of climate science. This intense politicization of science by the media, governments, and the UN's IPCC acts to forward a gross underestimation of our actual and current climate consequences, timeframes, remedies, and condition. Unexpectedly, our independent climate change analysis has turned us into reluctant whistleblowers exposing how popular climate data has been distorted to serve the hidden interests of those who gain financially (or in other ways) from the ongoing global use of fossil fuels and hiding the real danger the public faces from the runaway global heating extinction emergency.

Additional information about the validity and reliability of the climate science found on the Job One For Humanity website

The scientific method deals in probabilities, not certainties. This is especially true for making climate change predictions, given the complexity of factors that interact to create the climate. While scientific findings on climate change necessarily include uncertainty, the process of deciding public policy for dealing with climate change seeks a certainty that science cannot provide.

In this situation, many concerned climate researchers and scientists urge the application of the precautionary principle. The precautionary principle asserts that policy-makers have a social responsibility to prevent public exposure to harm when scientific investigation has found a plausible risk — even though there can be no assertion of certain risk.

Climate science has shown we are well beyond mere plausible risk with today's runaway global heating emergency. Instead, we are now at probable to highly-probable climate risk levels. Therefore the precautionary principle must be applied and should've been used many decades ago.

Because climate science is constantly evolving and will always be some inherent level of uncertainty, we continually update our climate analysis and conclusions as new climate research becomes available. Wherever possible, we present predictive information in data ranges (such as carbon 425-450 ppm or temperature increases of 2 C to 2.7, etc.) Based on the climate data we are reviewing, we do our best to present what we understand to be the most accurate climate picture. However, as mentioned previously no one can establish 100% scientific certainty about any future phenomena. 

Therefore, we also maintain a wise and continual openness to scientific falsification. We invite our website visitors to make up their minds about the usefulness and validity of our current climate analysis, conclusions, and remedial action steps. And, if you see any error in our climate data, presentation, or predictions, please present your criticism and documentation to [email protected] for review.

We also acknowledge that due to the paucity of climate tipping point and climate feedback loop research, Job One for Humanity could be partially or even wholly wrong concerning any of its predictive climate analysis regarding future levels of average global temperature, atmospheric carbon, global warming consequences, global warming timetables, or correct global fossil fuel reduction targets.

We fully appreciate that the climate is a very complex adaptive system. Many unknowns remain about how it and its subsystems react with each other and with other human, geological and ecological systems outside the climate. 

And finally, we always do our best to provide documentation links to any underlying climate research or analysis upon which we are basing a climate statement or position. 

Our climate research history

Job One For Humanity has been online since early 2008. Although there were earlier versions, the first complete version of the Job One For Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan was created in early 2011. It was designed to help address the lack of adequate progress in fixing climate change over the several preceding decades.

Other Links

Here is a link to our climate science glossary, which will be helpful in reading current climate science.

See the Job One For Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan here.

Discover amazing information, tools, alerts, and promotional benefits for becoming a Job One for Humanity climate change think tank donor/supporter/member by clicking here!

 

 

Please also consider becoming an annual member by clicking here and checking out the wonderful information and benefits that you will receive. We guarantee you will get more than you receive when you become a proud funder of our 100% publicly-funded not-for-profit climate change think tank.

Last Updated 9.13.24

Prologue

It is essential to realize that everything described below is part of a required governmental emergency backup plan designed to save and salvage something of humanity during the coming global systems collapse. The steps below must be done while our governments are also simultaneously completing all of the radical global fossil fuel reduction actions described on this critical page to have any reasonable hope of salvaging enough of humanity to have a modern or survivable future.)

The steps in the plan below are not only applicable to governments creating their own emergency backup plans. Many of the steps below also equally apply to the world's wealthiest corporations and individuals, who have the assets and the political and financial influence to ensure these things happen to save and salvage whatever we can of humanity. Unfortunately, the steps below are largely out of reach of individuals and small businesses without powerful governmental influence and abundant resources.

The Bad News

Unfortunately, even if we come close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets but do not get close enough, we will still face a highly probable near-total extinction by 2070-2080. We need to prepare ourselves NOW. The unavoidable deaths of half of humanity by mid-century will produce widespread social, economic, and political chaos illustrated by the many climate change consequences and processes described in painful detail on this page. 

What this means on a national level is that we need a national-level emergency backup plan or a PLAN B, as it is often called. 

On a national level, as part of our Plan B, we must prepare, adapt, save, and salvage whatever we can before it is too late. We need to build some level of near-total to total extinction resilience quickly. (Ideally, we should be building an international extinction resiliency, but we currently have no genuinely effective international global governance that could do this for us.)

At some point, our politicians and governments will finally begin to do everything they can to come as close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets as fast as possible. They must also simultaneously manage the current runaway global heating process of multiple threats and multiple consequences.

Our governments can enact a climate change extinction prevention process and Plan B by moving critical resources, technology, infrastructure, and at-risk populations into the global warming safer zones as soon as possible. But this must be done wisely, equitably, and in an orderly way.

For our politicians and governments to effectively manage a global warming-driven extinction and collapse process, they must also evolve new forms of international and global governance and cooperation quickly. This new global governance would need powers to verify, enforce, or punish any nation that tried to game or cheat, making the complex global governmental Plan B changes required to save whatever portion of humanity and civilization we can for the future. 

Only our national governments collaborating in tight alignment can slow down our current runaway global heating enough to allow more people to survive, live longer, and live more stably. Unfortunately, the probability of our governments cooperating internationally like this before it is too late to save humanity from near-total to total extinction is very low. 

Please click here to view a detailed description of the many climate change-driven step-by-step processes of mass human extinction.

Please click here to read the many near-insurmountable challenges our national governments must overcome to save humanity from the current climate change-driven extinction process.

 

 

At least, with this governmental level, emergency backup Plan B successfully executed, we can save and salvage more of humanity. Hopefully, those survivors can re-populate the earth and preserve the best of our civilization. 

If you still doubt that immediately beginning a government-driven, well-resourced Plan B backup and resiliency plan against climate change near-total extinction prevention failure is necessary, please read this page.

 

 

 

The key runaway global heating government actions to save and salvage what we can while we still have time

Global warming and these other 11 poorly managed critical global challenges we currently face are most likely getting a lot worse before they get better. While the actions below are directly focused on the more immediate threat of the runaway global heating emergency, indirectly, they too will also be helpful to make things more survivable as our other critical global challenges continue to worsen.) 

Action Step 1. Our governments must begin moving critical resources, technology, key infrastructure, and our younger at-risk populations into the global warming safer zones in a wise, equitable, and well-managed way. 

For our long-term future and safety, essential resources, infrastructure, and crucial genetic and social diversity transfers must be executed simultaneously as the other individual and business action steps (above) are being done. If things continue to go wrong as they are now, this government action step may turn out to be the most important action taken for the future of humanity and for preserving civilization.

Of all of the things to be done in this step, working out a migration plan for a fair and equitable migration lottery for all those younger individuals who have not already migrated will be the most challenging. This equitable migration management is critical because of the poor soils and shorter growing seasons above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south.

Those above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south areas of deficient soils and inadequate sunlight will not be able to grow enough food to feed our current human population. Because of this food production limitation, a fair lottery will be essential to the survival of humanity and civilization.

Even before this lottery begins, our best scientists must determine how much food can be grown in those global warming-safe areas and what the maximum allowable population should be. These calculations are based on the total amount of food needed for that existing population while maintaining adequate food reserves for unplanned and unexpected contingencies. Once they have those calculations, they can set initial and/or adjust lottery migration allocations as conditions change. 

Even before the final number of people that the remaining global warming safe zones will support with adequate food production, we must also mobilize the necessary agricultural resources to scale up food production but only in sustainable and non-fossil fuel fertilizer-dependent ways. This intense scaling-up of sustainable agricultural production output will allow for the rapid increase of new climate migrants (climagees) coming to those safer zones as well as to compensate for the generally more deficient soils, reduced sunlight, and shorter growing seasons found there.

One more thing must be said about the migration lottery. It must be almost entirely for individuals under 30 or those older than 40 with young children. The older generations have failed to pass on a livable legacy to the younger generations. The older generations have also lived far longer and more stable lives than the younger X, Y, and Z generations ever will. Therefore, generational justice demands that the most survivable remaining areas go to the younger generations.

The lottery cannot be hijacked or dominated by wealthy individuals, politicians, high-level government agency staff, corporations, or any nation. No special interest group or nation can unjustly control or determine who can migrate based on privilege, position, wealth, politics, or any other national, cultural, or social categorization.

Politicians and the ultra-wealthy top 5% of the world's citizens especially must be excluded from this lottery because, through either commissions or omissions, they have allowed the climate change extinction emergency to grow continually worse for over 60 years. They had the power of influence to stop the climate nightmare, and they did not. Climate change justice demands they be left behind. 

If it is not a fair and just lottery, based upon what is essential for humanity and civilization to survive and an equitable representation of all of the categories mentioned above, then those left behind will fight to the death and eventually bring about the end of everything. This new lottery failure conflict will occur because those who feel the lottery was unfair will invade the safe zones. They will use whatever nuclear, biological, or chemical warfare technology has been left behind in unsafe zones.

Those with any decision power over who is allowed to migrate can not be allowed to use their political, military, or financial positions, advantages, or privileges to place themselves, their families, friends, allies, or business interests in any better position than any other individual citizen in the unsafe zones in these lotteries. 

Any random lottery winner selection methodology must draw only from a pool of the most qualified climagees with the essential skills and sufficient genetic diversity for the new world we will be living in. It must also have independent safeguards to prevent fraud, bias, and any form of selection favoritism.

This lottery must also allow for the following types of necessary diversity: genetic, national, racial, ethnic, religious, cultural, sexual orientation, gender identity, rural/urban/indigenous, and rich/poor. Communities most affected by global warming damage, which also have contributed the least to the climate change emergency, should receive special consideration if justice is to be served.

Having enough genetic diversity will be extremely important because most of humanity by mid-century will eventually die. This will occur as we approach the final global warming extinction tipping point of carbon 600 ppm. 

Because of the very limited numbers of additional individuals that the global warming safer areas can sustain and feed, the lottery selection for legal migration to the global warming safer zones must be just and fair to be viewed as credible and so that it has the best chance to work. 

There are many good reasons for executing this last chance to save humanity and civilization migration, lottery, and infrastructure transfer backup plan simultaneously with the other action steps described at the top of this page. Here are just a few reminders:

First, we are fighting for the very survival of humanity over the next 30 to 50+ years. Most, if not all, of humanity and civilization, will end if we fail to slow and lessen global warming enough not to cross carbon 600 ppm and we fail to move our critical infrastructure and essential populations to the far north or the far south in time. 

Secondly, Our fossil fuel "bill of consequences" has come due, and there's no way to escape it. We now have to deal with the horrible accumulated consequences of the fossil fuel carbon pollution of our atmosphere for the last 200 years (since the industrial revolution began. ) Additionally, we also have to deal with the extra accumulating consequences from fossil fuel burning over the next 30-50+ years where we will undoubtedly reach the carbon 500 ppm level (and most likely reach carbon 600 ppm extinction level.) 

Thirdly, the fossil fuel pollution that we have now and will continue to put into our atmosphere for the next 30-50+ years will last for centuries to thousands of years! If we stay on our current path of "too little fossil fuel reductions too late," things will not be better for those who are lucky enough to survive. Our children and future generations will curse us for our selfishness and blind stupidity. They will suffer for many centuries before their climate will re-stabilize and carbon in parts per million level to drop back down to the pre-industrial safer carbon level of 350-270 ppm. (As mentioned earlier, we are now at about carbon 420 ppm adding about three additional carbon ppm each year.)

Forthy, the amount of emergency adaptation work needed and the short amount of time available (from now until about 2031 as things get progressively to exponentially much worse) makes this immediate adaptation and preparation and planning an imperative! Adapting and moving all necessary critical resources, technology, and infrastructure will take a lot of time. This mass transfer means moving them into the safer areas near or above the 45th parallel north or near or below the 45th parallel south. (You do not want to move much above the 55th parallel north or much above the 55th parallel south.)

And finally, these transfers will be a massive undertaking, requiring new levels of cooperation between nations never seen before.

This mass population transfer and the demands for climate justice also mean:

1. Moving willing people who are already suffering and are the most vulnerable today to the worst global warming consequences. This initial series of mass migrations must be done without panic and in a well-organized and well-supported way. These first migration relocations also will be a necessary rehearsal for the additional millions of people that will need to be relocated each year as global warming worsens and makes growing food and surviving impossible in many areas.

2. Moving hundreds of millions of willing people (eventually as many as several billion) from the most unsafe global warming zones into the safer zones. This mass migration will be fraught with challenges that will require profound international cooperation at unprecedented levels. This ongoing year-by-year migration will, by necessity and urgency, become the greatest migration in human history.

Without question, this "Great Global Migration" needs to begin now! If we wait until it's too late, there will be panic, chaos, and severe local, regional, and national conflicts, if not all-out international war, as the remaining trapped populations and any lottery losers desperately try by any means possible to migrate far north or far south.

People will eventually realize that what is happening today is not random, lousy weather. They will finally see our worsening climate as an increasing pattern of storms and other extreme weather consequences regularly increasing in frequency, severity, and scale that has not been seen for thousands of years, if ever. Once they realize this, many more will migrate because they finally realize "it is migrate or die."

By about 2029, we estimate that at least 2-5% of the world's population will have figured out that the wild climate fluctuations and seasonal extremes they are witnessing are not random or freak occurrences. They will have figured out that the climate is destabilizing steadily and rapidly. They, too, will realize the climate catastrophes we are already experiencing are showing a clear pattern of ever-increasing severity, frequency, and scale (the size of the area they are covering). 

Once these hundreds of millions of people realize they need to get out soon or get caught in the suffering, chaos, and death of crashing and soaring real estate, economies, and market prices (depending upon which area you're leaving or moving to,) they will migrate, and they will migrate desperate and fast! 

Once these hundreds of millions migrate, others will see and hear about it. Then, those people will begin migrating so they do not get caught up with no place to move to or having too few resources left to get there.

To avoid the potential chaos of the Great Global Migration not well managed by cooperating world governments, our governments need to act NOW and not ten years from now. 

As part of necessary climate justice, those nations that have caused the most fossil fuel burning atmospheric pollution and damage, which has caused global warming, must also take in the most climate migrants to the highest level that farming in that nation will support. 

Lastly, to make the new migration lottery system work effectively, individuals already living near or above the 45th parallel north or near or above the 45th parallel south cannot and should not be removed to make room for new climagees. This existing resident removal strategy would only cause more conflict, delay, and confusion, further complicating an already massively complex undertaking.

 

Action Step 2: Pass new laws to prevent all unfair profiteering by any individual, corporation, or nation seeking to exploit the extinction emergency or the mass migrations to safer areas. It is critical to set severe penalties and to remove all profit from any entity charging more than the reasonable pre-emergency prices for food, global warming safer lands, or anything else. 

 

Actions Step 3: Moving critical infrastructure also includes moving the world's artistic, architectural, and cultural heritage from unsafe global warming zones to safer zones for preservation. The best of our art, architecture, and cultures also makes us human. These things contain critical elements of our history and who we are that will help keep us sane while going through this catastrophe.

 

Action Step 4: Move all needed global plant and animal diversity into the safest remaining areas.

Many needed plants and animals will be unable to migrate independently in time to avoid extinction. Almost in Noah's Ark fashion, our governments must begin cataloging and making provisions to get all needed global plants and animals into safer areas where they can survive and may be required.

 

Action Step 5: Educate and incentivize the citizens of every nation to begin their emergency preparations and backup plans. To be successful in saving the future, it is not only governments that must start acting in this area. Simultaneously, every citizen also needs to be responsible for themselves and become a part of the greatest mobilization of resources and people in human history. It is unlikely any government will have enough resources to protect all of its citizens. That is why you must begin your own Plan B preparations and planning. (The Job One plan has specific steps to help you do this. Click here to begin this section.)

 

Action Step 6: We must ensure that ALL nuclear reactors, nuclear and biological weapons, and toxic chemical manufacturing sites within all unsafe global warming zones are secured.

Secured means that all remaining more stable governments have an adequately resourced and ready backup plan to manage these contingencies as the less stable governments and economies collapse in the unsafe zones. 

As global warming worsens inside the global warming unsafe zones, the political systems and nations will destabilize, and most of them will collapse. Once those political systems collapse, there will no longer be stable and organized procedures, staffing, or resources for ensuring that:

1. any nuclear reactors within those areas do not meltdown and go critical or that, 

2. nuclear or biological weapons within those areas are not stolen or triggered or that, 

3. toxic chemical manufacturing sites within those areas do not leak.

If any of this happened, it would not only threaten the survival of that particular area, region, or the nations within that unsafe zone but also the whole world's survival. 

Take a moment to imagine the hundreds of nuclear reactors in the global warming unsafe zones becoming new Chernobyls and Fukagimas one after another. There would be no place on earth nor any bunker that would keep you safe from this massive amount of radiation circling the planet for decades to hundreds to thousands of years. 

Now take a moment to imagine all of the biological and chemical weapons and toxic chemical manufacturing sites in the unsafe global warming zones becoming compromised and leaking their slow and painful death out into the world. Surviving this would be a living hell and nearly impossible.

The preceding worst-case nuclear, biological, and chemical catastrophe will likely happen if the nations of the world do not preemptively cooperate in this additional emergency preparation area. The world's nations must realize that our escalating climate change emergency is a no-win game unless they collaborate and make the best possible decisions to preserve the human species and our civilization.

If the world's governments do not thoroughly do this action step two, there is no rational or reasonable hope that even the smallest part of the human race will survive to save civilization and repopulate the earth within the global warming safer zones. 

 

Action Step 7: Each government must create multiple archives containing all human knowledge needed for the post-collapse and post-dark age periods. These multiple archives must survive the post-collapse and probable new dark ages for decades to centuries.

These archives will be essential to the survivors for rebuilding the world. The hope is that when survivors rebuild, they will use the archived knowledge and the many painful lessons of the great extinction and collapse to create a Great Global Rebirth.

Governments must also begin planning how to make the post-collapse dark ages as short as possible. The longer the post-collapse Dark Age period lasts, the lower the probability much of humanity will survive it. The longer the new dark age lasts, the likelihood of this tragedy empowering the Great Global Rebirth also diminishes radically. 

Please note: If 90% or more of the human population, or even close to that percentage, is lost because of climate change and the other world crises (described on this page) intersecting with climate change, it is highly likely we will enter into a new Dark Age where previous technological and knowledge levels cannot be sustained. This dark age could last for hundreds to thousands of years, and society needs to rebuild itself to keep up with its current technological and knowledge levels.

But even society rebuilding its technical and knowledge base over hundreds of thousands of years will be incredibly difficult because the Industrial Revolution and the Information Age that followed it were powered, fueled, and dependent upon by easy access to relatively cheap fossil fuels like coal and particularly oil. If or when humanity enters the next Dark Age, it will not be able to access easy-to-reach or inexpensive-to-access oil with remaining or functioning post-collapse technology because even today, easy-to-reach and inexpensive-to-access oil and coal have largely disappeared. Rebuilding the modern world we have today after a new Dark Age would be all but impossible without the energy sources that powered the Industrial Revolution and the Information Age.

 

Action Step 8: While the governments of the world are doing all of the action steps in 1-6 above, it is critically important that they also engage in the radical fossil fuel reduction action steps described in Part 3 of the Job One Plan. These additional steps are absolutely essential to slow down global warming enough so we still have adequate time left to prepare, adapt, and migrate so at least some of humanity will survive.

Never forget that getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets is our last best chance to prevent reaching the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point. Unfortunately, it is highly probable that we will cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction-level tipping point.

(Please see this page if you have doubts about why it is highly unlikely that we will reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. This page will also help explain why our world leaders must enact this governmental-level emergency backup Plan B while passing the other action steps listed here in the Job One Plan.) 

 

Action Step 9: As soon as possible, our governments must honestly inform their citizens that the climate consequence-driven extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century is now unavoidable. 

They must honestly let their citizens know that we must now make great sacrifices to save the other half of humanity because of their own six decades of inaction or ineffective climate action. Unless the public understands what has happened and why, they may be unwilling to make the necessary sacrifices to save the younger generations. 

To inform their citizens thoroughly and adequately, our politicians must now tell them about the ten most important facts about our climate and runaway global heating condition. 

Giving the public this horrible news will also allow them more time to prepare physically, emotionally, and spiritually as best as possible. If done correctly and soon, it should help prevent public panic and inspire a new level of global cooperation to save the younger X, Y, Z, and A generations.

Additionally, any politician who failed to effectively cut fossil fuel subsidies over the last six decades or order the correct critical fossil fuel reductions must voluntarily exclude and bar themselves (and their families) from any climate migration or enhanced safety program benefit in any global heating safer area. This justice-inspired benefit restriction is because these politicians are the most responsible for failing to do their jobs concerning the decades-long escalation of the climate and global heating extinction threat. And finally,

 

Action Step 10: Our governments must also convince the older generations to help finance the younger generations getting prepared or migrating and rebuilding in new, safer locations.

It is the right thing to do for those generations who have not had as much time to live as the older generations. It is also the right thing to do because the older generations have a greater responsibility for restitution. This greater restitution and climate justice responsibility is valid because, despite six decades of valid scientific warnings, they allowed the runaway global heating extinction emergency to occur on their watch. 

 

Action Step 11: As a crucial part of the governmental Plan B, all major fossil fuel-polluting nations must begin to educate their citizens about their obligations under the principles of climate justice. They must thoroughly educate their citizens about the sacrifices that most nations in global warming safer zones will have to make because of climate justice factors. 

It is climate justice for the nations that have created the most fossil fuel pollution (mostly the northern and developed countries) to take in the desperate victims of their fossil fuel pollution acts (mainly refugees from the southern and under-developed countries.) However, unless global warming safer nations actively begin this climate justice educational process today, there will be tremendous turmoil and conflict. This conflict will occur as hundreds of millions (to billions) of "migrate or die" climate refugees mass migrate out of the global warming high-risk southern areas into safer northern regions and nations.

 

Action Step 11: Humanity must simultaneously work to discover:

a.)  ALL of the major and even the deepest causes of the climate change extinction emergency and then,

b.) begin fixing every cause of the climate change emergency to prevent such a global catastrophe from ever occurring again.

Click here to the 30 major direct and indirect causes of the climate change extinction emergency.

Click Here for the deepest direct and indirect causes of the climate change extinction emergency.

 

Action Step 12: Humanity must learn to live in a new sustainable relationship with Earth's existing resources and ecosystems.

A smaller humanity will need to learn how to live with far less so those who survive may thrive again.

Click here for more information on how to live more sustainably.

Click here for all of the benefits of making the governmental Plan B work.

Please read the following two documents to learn more about what the world's wealthiest individuals and corporations can do to help save and salvage humanity.

https://www.evolutionarymanifesto.com/evolutionarycontext.pdf

 https://johnstewart1.substack.com/p/how-the-one-percent-can-be-organized

“I have canceled my plans to have a family because I am so concerned about the future of the planet.” Jordan Druthers

Read more

Our runaway global heating emergency will have horrible consequences. These consequences are so bad there is no need to exaggerate them. 

Read more

There is really just one climate fact that everyone should know. It is the new "elevator pitch" of the climate change and runaway global heating education movement.

Read more

Once you have read this page, you will understand our current climate condition, the global heating emergency, and this website's most critical message. You also will have a climate summary understanding similar to a climate researcher.

Read more