The figure is from paper #79.
A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below...
"High-resolution altimetry measurements from 2010 to 2016 show that Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS), West Antarctica, thins in response to basal melting focused along a single 5 km-wide and 60 km-long channel extending from the ice shelf's grounding zone to its calving front. If focused thinning continues at present rates, the channel will melt through, and the ice shelf collapse, within 40–50 years, almost two centuries before collapse is projected from the average thinning rate."
"The Arctic has been warming faster than elsewhere, especially during the cold season. According to the leading theory, ice-albedo feedback warms the Arctic Ocean during the summer, and the heat gained by the ocean is released during the winter, causing the cold-season warming. Screen and Simmonds (2010; SS10) concluded that the theory is correct by comparing trend patterns in surface air temperature (SAT), surface turbulence heat flux (HF) and net surface infrared radiation (IR). However, in this comparison, downward IR is more appropriate to use. By analyzing the same data used in SS10 using the surface energy budget, it is shown here that over most of the Arctic the skin temperature trend, which closely resembles the SAT trend, is largely accounted for by the downward IR, not the HF, trend."
"The peak in surface temperature is delayed in time after carbon emissions cease through the decline in ocean heat uptake, which in turn increases the proportion of radiative forcing warming the surface. Eventually, after many centuries, surface temperature declines as the radiative forcing decreases through the excess atmospheric CO2 being taken up by the ocean and land."
"The warming around Siberia was mainly caused by greenhouse gases but its modulation due to natural forcing was also considerable because of the robust multi-decadal variations. Around China, the multi-decadal variation, contributed by the natural forcing, can explain more than half the variances in the warming. The warming trend around central Asia was intense and parabolic, and the multi-decadal variation over there was weak and showed few modulating effects."
"Under the moderate emission scenario (RCP4.5), droughts are projected to become increasingly more frequent and severe in the Mediterranean area, western Europe, and Northern Scandinavia, whereas the whole European continent, with the exception of Iceland, will be affected by more frequent and severe extreme droughts under the most severe emission scenario (RCP8.5), especially after 2070. Seasonally, drought frequency is projected to increase everywhere in Europe for both scenarios in spring and summer, especially over southern Europe, and less intensely in autumn; on the contrary, winter shows a decrease in drought frequency over northern Europe."
"These mechanisms help explain why climate feedback and sensitivity change on multi-decadal timescales in AOGCM abrupt4xCO2 simulations and is different to those seen in AGCM experiments forced with observed historical SST changes. From the physical understanding developed here we should expect unusually negative radiative feedbacks and low effective climate sensitivities to be diagnosed from real world variations in radiative fluxes and temperature over decades in which the eastern Pacific has lacked warming."
Climate change impacts
"Combining this information with hazard (the magnitude of projected climate change within a species geographic range) we identified global hotspots of species at risk from climate change that includes the western Amazon basin, south-western Kenya, north-eastern Tanzania, north-eastern South Africa, Yunnan province in China, and mountain chains in Papua-New Guinea."
"Betula showed a dramatic growth decline beginning in the early 1990s, when correlations between growing season air temperature and growth shifted from neutral to strongly negative." ... "Carbon isotope discrimination (∆13C) in α-cellulose of Salix growth rings declined strongly during the period of reduced growth, suggesting drought-induced stomatal closure as a possible cause."
"Consistent with theory, variation in forest NPP and GPP primarily scaled with forest biomass, but the secondary effect of temperature on productivity was much less than expected. This weak temperature dependence appears to reflect directional shifts in several mean community traits that underlie tree growth with decreases in site temperature."
"Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: “winners” – mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur and Q. petraea; “losers” – mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris and alien species – Pseudotsuga menziesii, Q. rubra and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as “winners”. Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face significant decrease of suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers."
"We found that both the timing and duration of flowering of focal species was strongly sensitive to multiple climatic factors (snowmelt, temperature, and soil moisture). Some consistent responses emerged, including earlier snowmelt and warmer growing seasons driving flowering phenology earlier for all focal species. However, variation among species in their phenological sensitivities to these climate drivers was large enough that phenological reassembly occurred in the climate change analog conditions of 2015. An unexpected driver of phenological reassembly was fine-scale variation in the direction and magnitude of climatic change, causing phenological reassembly to be most apparent early and late in the season and in topographic locations where snow duration was shortest (i.e., at low elevations and on ridges in the landscape)."
"Our data support one of the central predictions that lead to the hypothesis that viviparous lizards are more vulnerable to climate warming; however, this is not because viviparous lizards have evolved reduced body temperature and heat tolerance, but, because warming constrains activity more dramatically in viviparous species."
"Climate change did trigger or worsen conflicts." ... "The locally powerful took advantage of climate related changes in resource bases, undermining past cooperation."
Climate change mitigation
"Results show that while Republican partisanship and conservative ideology are strongly associated with lower reported belief in anthropogenic climate change, these attitudes are also shaped by subjective perceptions of economic risk and increased local unemployment rates. I find that exposure to economic risk increases the likelihood of climate change denial among both Democrats and Republicans."
- • Opinions toward offshore wind energy relate to perceptions of others' opinions.
- • Supporters and opponents of offshore wind projects underestimate public support.
- • Democrats and Republican opponents overestimate Republican opposition for a project.
- • Project supportive Republicans estimate relatively equal bipartisan support."
"We then show that, using this best method, recovery of Antarctic ozone has actually been slow - consistent with expectations - but also very steady ever since approximately the year 2000. Our results are consistent with expections and provide confidence that the policies that have led to a reduction of the amount of ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere, actually also have the expected effect on Antarctic ozone itself."
Posted on 20 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki
original story HERE
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