"You cannot be called an alarmist if there really is something to be alarmed about." This proverb by an unknown author holds a lot of truth both for our nonprofit organization and for our current global warming situation.
Because it is always best to get the bad news out-of-the-way before the good news, we will start with the bad global warming (aka climate change,) news first. Keep in mind as you read the bad news that there is good news about what you can do to improve our situation further down this page. We can still find ways to slow and manage the many unthinkable and now unavoidable global warming consequences and catastrophes that you are about to discover and that will soon be here.
The most current global warming facts that will define the quality of life and length of life for most everyone on earth.
Some time ago it became clear to our nonprofit organization that the world's leading global warming authorities (the U.N's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC],) in charge of the 2016 International Paris Climate Conference agreement had grossly misinformed the public about both the consequences and timetables of future global warming and, we had to do something about it.
At the last international climate conference the IPCC failed to:
a. warn the public of both the actual severity of future global warming consequences and,
b. how soon these consequences will actually begin occurring.
For years, the IPCC, governments and environmental organizations they influence have told the public:
- that global warming is still manageable (in the sense that we are currently and will continue to make steady and adequate progress in lessening global warming for the foreseeable future,)
- that global warming consequences will occur gradually,
- that global warming consequences will remain generally mild until about 2100 And,
- the very worst consequences of global warming will occur after 2100 long after most of us living today are gone.
Nothing listed in items 1-4 above could be farther from the truth!
1. the public has no idea that we have managed global warming so incredibly poorly for the last 35 plus years that it has now become out of our meaningful control for at least another 30-50 years with horrific and unavoidable consequences arriving far sooner than almost any of us are prepared to deal with. (The rest of this document plus the dozen reasons that global warming will be uncontrollable for at least another 30-50 years found at the top of this page will conclusively prove to you that global warming is, in fact, now our of our meaningful control.)
2. It's also far worse than just now unavoidable horrible consequences. What we do now until 2025 will be critical in determining if we are able to avoid the likelihood of extinction.
What the above gross misinformation about global warming by the IPCC means for those who use their predictions
In spite of what is being reported in the media, the global warming reduction strategies currently being promoted or executed by the IPCC, our governments, and most other environmental organizations will not work in time to save most of humanity from unconscionable levels of suffering and death far, far sooner than we are being told!Their inaccurate global warming remedial strategies will not save us from:
a.) the 20 worst consequences of global warming continually increasing in frequency, severity, and scale,
b.) triggering many of the 11 most dangerous global warming tipping points leading to spiking and cascading ecological, economic, political and social system catastrophes and collapses and finally,
c.) a 6th mass extinction event for much of humanity, (This will be caused when we cross the cataclysmic tipping point of carbon 600 ppm (particles per million in the atmosphere,) about 50 to 70 years from now if we are lucky.
Mass extinction is not new to either evolution or nature. There have been five previous mass extinction events. More will be said about carbon 600 PPM farther down this page. (For more information about carbon particles in the atmosphere causing global warming, click here.)
How fast it gets worse from where we are today and how much time we have left before the above a, b or c type global warming consequences begin to directly or indirectly affect you, your family, business or nation depends completely on your current location. In fact, some of you around the world are already experiencing many of the above severe type a and b type consequences.
Some areas we'll be hit a lot harder by escalating global warming than others
In general, some areas of the world will suffer more frequent and severe Global warming consequences covering increasingly large areas. Using the map below as a guide this is what consequence distribution will look like:
1. The a and b type consequence severity will increase rapidly in severity, frequency, and scale within the next 5-10 years in the areas between the 25th parallel north and the 25th parallel south.
2. Within the next 10 to 15 years, the areas of increasing consequences severity, frequency, and scale for the a and b consequences listed above will generally expand throughout the areas between the 35th parallel north and the 35th parallel south.
3. Within 15 to 20 years, life will regularly become highly chaotic and unstable for those unfortunate individuals and businesses still trying to live and operate below the 45th parallel north or the 45th parallel south. Global warming consequences within that area will also continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale.
Depending on your current and ultimate location, financial loss, starvation and death tolls from global warming-related catastrophes will continue to rise steadily until we reached what we call the last phases of the Climageddon Scenario. This is where as much as 70-90% of the world's total population will die within as little as 30-50 years. This will occur primarily because we have crossed the carbon 600 ppm tipping point and because of starvation, migration wars, civil unrest and many of the other 20 worst global warming consequences and 11 dangerous tipping points are occurring and cross-triggering each other. (This new mass extinction event reality will be explained in more detail further down this page and other linked pages below.)"
Here is the Bad News We are Now Forced to Face
If we do not engage in anything less than the greatest mass mobilization of resources in human history directed toward radically cutting fossil fuel use to hit the critical 2025 targets while simultaneously increasing green energy generation to slow the escalating 20 worst consequences of global warming we will cross over the carbon 425-450 ppm climate cliff and rapidly cross the near-extinction atmospheric carbon tipping point level of carbon 500 ppm (parts per million.) This is predicted to happen in as soon as 20-25 years from now about 2038-2042. Once we cross the carbon 500 ppm tipping point it is almost certain that we will cross the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point not too long after that.
This will be explained in far more detail as you keep reading but, as essential background, it is necessary to know that the carbon ppm level in the atmosphere comes from our burning of fossil fuels. Because of the known effects of carbon (one of the main greenhouse gases,) an increasing carbon ppm level in our atmosphere is one of the best, if not the best predictor of future global warming temperature increases. (If you do not understand how global warming occurs, you will find basic illustrations and the science by clicking here.)
Keep the following in mind as you read the rest of this document:
a. On the average over the last 60 years, for every additional 25 PPM of carbon that goes into the atmosphere, our average global temperature goes up .5 degrees Fahrenheit or about .25 degrees C.
b. As of June of 2018, we are currently at carbon 411 ppm level. We are also adding another 3+ carbon ppm each year into the atmosphere as the global economy and world population grows.
As you can see from the graph below, carbon PPM is now rising at near exponential levels in spite of everything were being told about all the governmental and environmental programs that are supposed to be reducing global warming and the harmful effects of our using fossil fuels. As you can clearly see from the rising carbon ppm graph below, our current programs and strategies to reduce global warming are failing horribly!
Worse yet, when we cross the near extinction carbon 500 ppm tipping point in about 25 to 30 years (from 2018 about 2043-2048,) our average global temperature will inescapably soar to at least 4°C (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit). At 4°C, all ice on earth will begin melting as it has done repeatedly in the past, sea levels will eventually rise about 240-270 feet, and a large portion of humanity (as much as 30-60%) will die of starvation, or from rising temperatures and global warming's other related 20 worst consequences.) At carbon 500 ppm many struggling or weakened governments and societies will collapse in many areas of the world.
Even though it will take many centuries for the seas to rise the full 230 feet, there will still be sea level rise spurts within those centuries where the sea level rise up to 10 feet or more in just a few decades as it has also done repeatedly in Earth's past.
Take a moment to visualize the seas eventually but steadily rising 230 feet and what this will mean to our coastal cities, our national borders and the generations that follow us. Take a moment to visualize the ever-increasing massive worldwide crop failures because of the ever-increasing heat and the consequent mass suffering of slow starvation as we approach and pass the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction tipping point.
Also, take a moment and let the following sink in. Anything at or above a 4°Celcius increase in average global temperature would be incompatible with an organized global society and would be beyond adaptation!)
When we cross the "all ice on earth melts" carbon 500 ppm critical tipping point level, it is highly probable we also will quickly reach the carbon 600 ppm extinction level tipping point within as little as another 25-30 years, about 2063-2072. (There are at least a dozen reasons why the world will cross through these two critical tipping points. To see these reasons and know that we are not exaggerating crossing these tipping points, click here,)
Crossing the carbon 600 ppm level will raise the average global temperature to 5°C (9 degrees Fahrenheit) and bring about the beginning of massive methane clathrate releases from ocean coastal shelves as it has done before in the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum 56 million years ago, and most notably the Permian–Triassic extinction event, when up to 96% of all marine species became extinct, 252 million years ago. (Please click here to watch a short video that brilliantly explains the extinction process once we start releasing methane clathrate from our coastal shelves. New research shows we actually begin this release process once we reach 5°C and by 6°C it is in full bloom.)
Because methane, when released as a gas from methane clathrate is 86 times more potent than carbon as a temperature increasing greenhouse gas, it will once again rapidly spike up the average global temperatures once again. The following is a methane graph (found at https://www.methanelevels.org) in which you can see how total atmospheric methane levels from all sources have exponentially skyrocketed particularly during the last 50 years.
If it continues to rise from there towards carbon 600 ppm and the 5°C average global temperature rise, it will eventually bring about the extinction of most if not all of humanity (70-90%) and the end of civilization as we know it in the final phases of the Climageddon Scenario.
Please note that there is currently no mathematical way for us to prevent crossing the carbon 500 ppm tipping point where all ice on earth will melt! Beyond its mathematical certainty and the dozen reasons discussed on this page, there are numerous climate scientists who believe that crossing the carbon 500 ppm is also inevitable because we will soon cross the other climate, biological and human system tipping points illustrated near the top of this page. These factors leading to the inevitable crossing of the carbon 500 ppm tipping point does not even include the other accelerating global warming positive feedback loops already occurring throughout our climate system. (Positive feedback loops enhance or amplify changes; this also (like tipping points,) tends to move a system away from its equilibrium state and make it more unstable.
Numerous climate scientists also believe that no matter what we do, we have already missed our window of opportunity to prevent crossing the carbon 600 ppm tipping point and that once we have crossed the carbon 500 ppm tipping point, we will not be able to keep from reaching carbon 800 ppm (the near-final phase of the Climageddon Scenario.) Reaching 800 ppm would occur because of the accumulating effects of crossing more and more global warming tipping points that will continue occurring even more rapidly after we cross the carbon 500 ppm tipping point.)
Fortunately, there is still an acceptable possibility that we can slow our crossing the carbon 600 ppm final tipping point long enough so that we can save more of humanity and transfer needed infrastructure into the global warming safer zones. Just slowing our crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point will be a Herculean task of massive global cooperation and mobilization. (We could do this slowing action by immediately enacting all of the actions described in part three of the Job One Plan.)
The speck of good news here is that the probability that we can at least temporarily, slow many of the 20 worst non-extinction global warming consequences is still good and this will allow us more time to get prepared for consequences we can no longer avoid.
How Important is it to Understand the Carbon 600 ppm Extinction Level Tipping?
The above bad news, particularly the inevitably of crossing the 500 PPM tipping point, is truly the most important message of the 21st-century. This is because other than thermonuclear war, the new reality of out of control global warming for at least the next 50 years has become humanity's single greatest security threat and greatest global disruptor of future economic, political and social stability! It has also become the single greatest threat multiplier for humanity's other biggest global challenges. (To see humanity's other biggest challenges other than global warming, click here.)
The escalating consequences of global warming will not occur gradually and definitely, will not be mild to moderate as we are being told. These changes will come at us not on a linear increasing curve, but on a steadily rising exponentially increasing curve.
Great suffering, starvation, financial loss, large-scale migrations, climate wars, and death are already occurring all over the world for millions of people from the 20 major consequences of escalating global warming. Worse yet, these consequences will continue to increase in frequency, severity, and scale almost every year. Soon tens of millions then hundreds of millions and eventually billions of people will be affected!
What clearly needs to be understood by everyone is --- that if the average global temperature rises just 3° C above pre-industrial levels, almost no one and no nation will be spared levels of severe and massive financial loss, suffering, and death that will make Earth into a living hell. We are now as little as just 10-15 years away from where we are locked into this deadly 3°C temperature rise.
If we do not take immediate action to radically cut fossil fuel use and increase green energy generation (as described in our Job One for Humanity Plan Part 3) to slow down crossing the final extinction tipping point of carbon 600 ppm, the unconscionable suffering and death of 70-90% of everyone on earth will become a dominant reality for much of the world's total population—not by 2100 or later, but by as soon as 2063-2072.
Our current global warming emergency does not mean everything is hopeless and that there is nothing we can do. But it does mean we are now at an extremely serious juncture and we have little remaining time left to prepare for and adapt to the unavoidable and massive global warming consequences that will, at the minimum, steadily worsen for another 30-50 plus years!
What Options Do We Have to Save Humanity and the future?
As you can see from the first atmospheric carbon ppm graph at the top of this page, we are not making anything even close to the required radical cuts in our fossil fuel use to reduce the carbon going into our atmosphere and slow or reverse rising temperature.
In order to prepare you for the shocking REAL fossil fuel reductions that must be made if we are going to save humanity from unimaginable loss, suffering, death, and likely extinction, it is first necessary to see just how poorly our previous fossil fuel reduction agreements and actions have fared since we were first notified about the global warming extinction danger by our scientists over 35 years ago.
What has been hidden from you:
1. We have actually increased fossil fuel use more this century than in the last two decades of the 20th century. To make this point alarmingly clear, more than half of all fossil fuel emissions that have been released in the last 25 years and parked in the atmosphere are more than were released in all of recorded history before 1990.
2. Even though we have had over 20 international conferences on fossil fuel use reduction, and we had international treaties since at least 1993 pledging we would reduce global warming, worldwide we still are about 67% higher in carbon emissions than the early 1990s. (Atmospheric carbon emissions is probably the best way to measure future global warming.)
3. In 2018 carbon emissions increased another dramatic 2.7% and they are projected to increase once again in 2019.
now take one more look at the blue atmospheric carbon CO2 graph a little bit above this area. Yes, intentionally or through ignorance, our governments, the media, and most of the world's environmental groups have not been telling us the REAL facts about how what our REAL lack of any progress whatsoever in reducing the rate of fossil fuel use increases, much less the complete absence of any substantive reductions across the world in reducing atmospheric carbon.
Keeping the preceding horrific failure of any appreciable efforts to take seriously fossil fuel reductions, or even reducing the rates of increases, now please explore the REAL fossil fuel reductions that must be made to save our future. (If you don't believe we are telling you the facts about our dismal failure in reducing global warming over the last 35 years, click here to view a short video by climate Professor Kevin Anderson in a recent presentation to the Oxford University Climate Society.)
To slow and prevent the processes of likely going extinct, here is what is now needed to happen.
The absolute minimum amount we need to reduce fossil fuel use to slow and prevent the processes of likely going extinct in the next few decades is as follows:
a. All industrially developed nations must reduce their total fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025 and then continue reducing fossil fuel use to net zero carbon emissions by 2035. Net carbon zero emissions in this solution means that no additional fossil fuel emissions are going into the atmosphere that are not also simultaneously being removed from the atmosphere by natural means. (Only about 20 countries produce 70% or more of the world's carbon emissions.)
Think of developed nations like most members of the G 20 group; Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, and India. (See technical note 1 near the end of this page for why China and India had to be included in the list of developed countries.)
b. All developing nations must maintain their total fossil fuel emission levels as they are at the beginning of 2019 and not allow them to go any higher. Then by 2045, all developing nations must also be at net zero carbon emissions. This allowance for developing nations to stay at the level they are now and gradually reduce down to net zero carbon emissions by 2045 is part of an essential justice and equity equation. The developed nations created their wealth by producing the far greatest majority of all carbon emissions in the atmosphere today, thus causing almost all of our current global warming emergency. (See technical note 2 near the end of this page for more about justice and equity allowances.)
Here's another way of describing why the above 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets are so important to achieve. If we do not engage in anything less than the greatest mass mobilization of resources in human history directed toward radically cutting fossil fuel use to hit the critical 2025 targets described above, we will without a doubt cross what is known as our "last chance" carbon 425-450 ppm climate cliff. It is called the last chance climate cliff because once we go over this carbon 425 to 450 climate cliff we will not be able to stop ourselves from going over other far worse global warming tipping points.
If we continue only to the carbon 425 ppm climate cliff tipping point level, in about 6 years or less we can expect an eventual increase in average global temperature of about 2.2°-2.7° Celsius (4°-4.9° Fahrenheit) from preindustrial levels. At those temperature levels, millions and millions of people will be forced to either migrate or die.
When we cross the carbon 425 carbon ppm climate cliff tipping point, we will have also reached the key threshold transition level where we will continue near uncontrollably to 3°, 4°, 5°, and 6° Celsius average global temperature increases (5.4°, 7.2°, 9°, and 10.8° Fahrenheit.) These soon-arriving even higher temperatures of 3°, 4°, 5°, and 6° Celsius will be due our continuing to add more fossil fuel carbon to the atmosphere but also from the crossing additional global warming tipping points and triggering other positive feedback loops and points of no return within the many systems and subsystems of the global climate.
Crossing the climate cliff of carbon 425 ppm unfailingly sets us up to rapidly cross with the next near-extinction atmospheric carbon tipping point level of carbon 500 ppm where the temperature will eventually increase to 4°C. Carbon 500 ppm is predicted to happen in as soon as 20-25 years from now about 2038-2042. At a 4°C temperature increase above preindustrial levels, all ice on earth will melt and organized society cannot exist.
Once we cross the carbon 500 ppm near extinction tipping point, it is near-certain that we will also soon cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction tipping point not too long after that. (Much more will be said about the carbon 500 and 600 ppm extinction tipping point processes and their consequences further down this page.)
And finally, When we cross this carbon 425-450 ppm "last chance" climate cliff, in addition to leading us rapidly into mass extinction (70-90% of humanity,) in as little as the next 30 to 50 years, the consequences we will experience will also be irreversible for centuries to thousands of years.
There is much more information including what our individual, business and national annual targets would be, what will happen if we don't hit these targets, and the technical footnotes that will help explain the severity of these fossil fuel reductions in detail. We strongly suggest you go to this page and read all the information on these absolutely essential fossil fuel cuts before continuing on...
Getting real and preparing for the worst while working passionately for the best possible outcomes
To grasp how difficult these cuts will be, imagine that in the next six years you personally will have to cut all of your home (appliance and heating/cooling etc use,) auto, plane and other travel that uses fossil fuels as well as all business activities that use fossil fuels by 75%, then cut back to zero fossil fuel use within the next 10 years. Now imagine everyone else doing this all across the planet in all of the developed countries.
If you live in a developed country, are you doing this now? Does that seem likely or possible to you that you would voluntarily so change your normal life so fast? Do you see the governments of the developed nations of the world coming together and in a great act of cooperation passing the laws, verification procedures and the enforceable punishments necessary to make sure these cuts actually occur?
It is more likely that the citizens of the developed world who did not fully understand both the urgency and critical importance of why they needed to make these radical, immediate and painful sacrifices would literally throw any politician out of office or would even overthrow any government that tried to enforce these kinds of radical energy and fossil fuel usage cuts to their comfortable or even subsistence level lifestyles and livelihoods?
Now imagine all of the individuals, corporations and governments in the developed nations that depend upon fossil fuel use and sales directly or indirectly seeing their livelihoods disappear by 75% in the next six years and then drop to zero over the following 10 years until eventually their industries no longer exist. How much of a fight and a global disinformation program would those individuals, industries, and nations create and put up to preserve their often luxurious livelihoods and their futures?
What would the fossil fuel industry be capable of doing to preserve a $28 trillion year market segment? How far would they go to preserve their one-third piece of the world's total gross domestic product (GDP) in what they would have to see as a life and death struggle?
If you're a pragmatist, this (and the other dozen or so reasons we will not be able to stop escalating global warming for at least another 30-50 years found on this page, means we will not be able to prevent massive global temperature increases, horrendous climate calamities, and the near extinction or extinction of humanity far sooner than imagined. (We strongly recommend reading the 13 reasons found on this page for we almost certainly will not make the necessary global fossil fuel reductions. it is found abou 1/3 of the way down the page.)
This means that for at least another 30-50 years, we have already passed the point of being able to control rising global warming as well as all of its related unavoidable and unthinkable consequences unless we can immediately radically cut our fossil fuel use by the required percentages described above. But can we really make those life-critical cuts in time?
If your pragmatist, you will most likely believe that it is highly improbable (or even impossible,) that we will ever make the critically needed cuts to our fossil fuel usage in time to save ourselves. There are several reasons you are most probably correct.
1. Each year we continue to delay in making the needed radical fossil fuel usage cuts means that any future cuts will need to be even more extreme, which makes them even less likely to be done because of the even more severe hardships that they will impose globally.
2. it is unlikely we will make the needed cuts soon enough to save ourselves is because of what is called Garrett's Global Warming Dilemma. This research states that because of the laws of physics and mathematics, almost all of our fossil fuel based global economy must first collapse in a necessary and steep global recession or global depression in order to produce the required cuts in our fossil fuel use to save humanity in time. This well-documented climate research by Professor Garrett is the research most often ignored by environmental groups around the world because it produces a horrible dilemma for which either answer is unthinkable as well as un-sellable. (if you're a science person, please click here and read a summary of Prof. Garrett's alarming research on atmospheric carbon, global warming, and the necessary fossil fuel reductions we must make to save the future.)
3. The absolutely horrible side effects if we do cut fossil fuel radically at the levels described above. This is primarily because global agriculture will crash when we radically reduce fossil fuel use.
Agriculture is heavily dependent upon fossil fuels such as methane to make the essential fertilizers and other chemicals to allow mass food production to occur. Agriculture also depends heavily upon fossil fuels to run the equipment essential to creating and processing our mass food production and its distribution.
Once we come anywhere close to the absolutely essential levels of global fossil fuel reductions that we need to execute to save the future, global agriculture which is dependent upon fossil fuels will crash and up to 50% of the population will die of starvation not long after that.
4. The required fossil fuel reduction calculations discussed above are based on attempting to keep the average global temperature from rising two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. It is calculated that if we cross that 2°C maximum level of average global temperature increase above the preindustrial level, somehow we will be able to control the extremely slippery slope which can quickly lead us to 3, 4 and 5° Celsius increases in average global temperature.
There is additional strong evidence beyond what has been discussed above, that even we are successful in achieving the immediate and powerful fossil fuel reductions described above, the average global temperature will still rise to 3°C and likely beyond with many unavoidable and horrendous consequences. This means that we are in a real quandary as far as making the only the above-required fossil fuel reductions.
While it is absolutely true that we have to at least make the required above fossil fuel reductions no matter what! It is also highly likely that even those steep fossil fuel reductions are still not enough to avoid unthinkable suffering or the wide-scale reduction of the human population by as much as 50%.
On the other side of this painful quandary is an even scarier fact. If we do not make those immediate and radical fossil fuel use reductions, it is very likely that we will lose everything in as little as 30 to 50 years where as much as 70 to 90% of humanity (if not all,) will suffer and die. So ultimately, what other choice do we have other than to make the required fossil fuel reductions above while at the same time knowing we're probably going to have to make even steeper fossil fuel reductions as more research becomes available?
What we do know is that, no matter what, and in spite of all of the challenges and bad outcomes that are possible, the single constant truth for the best possible global warming outcome is that:
the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use, the more people we will survive to carry on our civilization, and that future generations will suffer less from the ever-increasing sequence of global warming consequences as described fully in what is called the Climageddon Scenario.
Because of Garrett's Global Warming Dilemma and side effects as well as these 13 disturbing reasons environmental groups hide this critical research away and ignore it like dirty laundry. Because of the preceding factors, it is hard to imagine that fossil fuels use will ever be cut to anything close to the critical levels needed, until we are faced with truly massive global financial losses and billions dead and suffering. By that time, the worst consequences and higher temperatures of global warming will be irreversible for timescales far, far beyond the human lifespan.
If you are a pragmatist and a mature adult, at this point you realize that for all intents and purposes, we have already crossed the point of no return and what we must do now is limit the total damages by preparing for, adapting to and making the best of, what we can no longer avoid. Depending upon if you are in or close to a global warming safe location, for the next 5 to 20 years, your life should still be somewhat stable and you should fill your life with as much joy and satisfaction as is possible. The time to enjoy what remains of the quality of your life is now because escalating global warming is going to make life progressively worse faster and faster until in almost all locations survival is extremely difficult.
We can still hope that we will slow what is coming just enough so that some of humanity and civilization will survive in the global warming safe zones of the future. There is also another very dark possibility that will allow some of humanity and our civilization to survive.
If we do not successfully either radically cut fossil fuel use by the percentages listed previously or allow the world economy to go into a severe recession or depression, the other most probable way that we will finally and successfully curtail our fossil for use is through a massive die-off of 70 to 90% of the human population when we cross the final carbon 600 ppm tipping point. This will occur in part due to massive crop failures and starvation linked to soaring global warming temperatures.
As billions die of starvation, or in migration and resource wars or because of the other worst consequences of global warming, fossil fuel use will drop radically in what may be the dark "last resort solution” that saves us in the end. But remember: even if this happens, it will still take centuries to thousands of years before the average global temperature and the planet recovers from what we have done to it. Survivors will be living a nightmare of high temperatures, extreme weather and chains of other global warming-related consequences we can barely envision. (To understand more about the year-by-year sequence of consequences on how billions will die, migrate or perish in global warming related resource wars, click here and read about the Climageddon Scenario.)
From the above and the 13 difficult reasons found on this page, you can see that there is no realistic or practical escape from the coming consequences. We would be lucky beyond belief to have just a one in 1 million or even one in 10 million chance of hitting the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets. In every situation, the only way we save any part of a liveable future is to radically and immediately cut fossil fuel use to slow things down enough that we have time to prepare, migrate and adapt as well as possible.
In all of the above-discussed scenarios, no matter what, we must do what we can and make the best of a horrible escalating emergency. We need to come together immediately and get very busy with what we still can do! (More of these specific "must do" actions are described farther down this page in a section called, What You Can Do Right Now to Help Slow Our Global Warming Consequences and Improve Your Chances of Survival?)
Other ongoing "outside" global challenges and contextual factors that will interact directly or indirectly to worsen the coming horrendous global warming consequences
Our coming global warming consequences do not take place in a vacuum. They take place in a global context in which other major global challenges and consequences are already occurring.
In addition to all of the global warming consequences mentioned above, we also currently have 6 other major global challenges that also will directly or indirectly interact with and collide into the global warming consequences. These additional interactions with the global challenges below will make both our lives and our global warming consequences much worse.
Please keep these additional contextualizing global challenges in mind as you come to grips with the convergence of massive problems facing us currently:
Global Challenge 1: Overpopulation, we are near 8 billion people racing to 9.4 billion by or before 2050. We are way over sustainable population levels and future and current generations will suffer dearly because we failed to manage ourselves in this area by itself.
The Earth may have only the resource carrying capacity for about 2 billion people or less. (Please click the brief carrying capacity link and the brief overshoot link for a full understanding on why this ever-rising overpopulation challenge is so bad.)
Global Challenge 2: Resource depletion fueled by overpopulation, toxic pollution, and escalating global warming.
We already have increasing food shortages (1 billion people are hungry.) Ocean fish stocks are already suffering from catastrophic losses from pollution and overfishing. We are rapidly depleting our many kinds of quantity-limited, nonrenewable, and even renewable resources to unsustainable levels. This resource depletion also increases global poverty by making those essential resources more expensive.
To make matters worse, many of our current key resources will run out at nearly the same time! Paradoxical to making the necessary fossil fuel reductions and moving to green energy generation, we will also soon be facing fossil fuel shortages caused by the early attainment of peak oil.
Global Challenge 3: Global economic instability.
There is no doubt that the mix of the Climageddon Scenario consequences will increase global poverty, economic instability, economic inequality (conflicts between rich and poor) and rising national deficits. Imagine a global financial depression or crisis occurring as we also try to solve global warming and all of our other global challenges at the same time. In the next global financial crisis or global depression, there will be even less resiliency and fewer resources to solve these challenges.
Global Challenge 4: Political instability first in countries with low management capabilities or low resource resilience and/or high deficits.
The nations of the world are weaker than we are allowing ourselves to realize. Global warming and these other global challenges increase political instability which acts to further increase the likelihood of more wars, terrorism, and political injustice in low, medium, and high resilience nations. This global challenge plus escalating global warming and the other global challenges will create sudden and massive migrations of millions then billions of people that even the richest nations will not be able to absorb.
Global Challenge 5: Global Pandemic.
As all of the above 4 resilience-reducing global challenges get worse, this increases the probability of a global pandemic. This is a unique pandemic risk which is not caused by the global warming consequence of melting tundra and permafrost. (This separate high-risk situation is due to existing or new diseases being poorly treated, the mobility and migration of world populations and the overall deterioration of global health services as the stew of all of the global challenges listed above come to a global warming amplified boil.)
Global Challenge 6: Failing to evolve a single global government with legislative, judicial, and enforceable executive powers.
If you think about it carefully, you will discover that this last and most often invisible global challenge IS the single biggest reason and core structural cause for why our most dangerous global challenges have not yet been resolved. The lack of the existence of a single global government with legislative, judicial and executive verification, enforcement and punishment powers having common global laws allows humanity's biggest global challenges to either:
a.) exist at all,
b.) continue to exist or,
c.) to remain perpetually unresolved and/or continually worsening as many of them are now.
In other words, the mere absence of a true global government of itself alone acts to facilitate, escalate and enable all of the global challenges that we currently face.
What we are facing with the 6 global challenges (above) interacting with the 7th global challenge (which is global warming and many consequences) is certain to become the greatest convergence of catastrophes in human history. For a great video by a famous English professor with wonderful illustrations that explains most of the above global challenges and the coming Great Convergence of catastrophes please click here. This video is well worth your time to better understand meal most impossible context humanity finds itself in.
Now that you have a better idea of the volatile and dangerous context in which the following Climageddon Scenario global warming extinction model will take place, you are now ready to review its 6 phases.
The Good News: What We Still Can Do in the Growing Face of Widespread Ecological and Human Systems Collapse.
There is counterbalancing good news in this horrible situation. It will help us persevere and stay motivated to adapt to the many destabilizing consequence realities of the global warming emergency.
Our simple good news is that in order to create the best possible outcome for ourselves and those we love, we adapt! Here is how:
1. we still have time to honestly face this emergency and slow our crossing the final catastrophic tipping point of carbon 600 ppm. We can only do this by radical and immediate global fossil fuel usage reductions as described elsewhere on this page. It will take is the most coordinated mass mobilization of human resources in our history, a Herculean but life-critical effort.
2. we also still have time to prepare for and adapt to the unavoidable coming worst consequences so more of us may survive, but only if we start immediately preparing and we adapt and we work together to motivate our governments executing an effective, deadline-driven and prioritized plan like the recently updated 3 part Job One for Humanity Plan.
Our expanded good news is:
1. We should be encouraged by the fact that in the last 4.5 billion years of Earth's evolution, life has always found a way to survive the 5 previous mass extinctions. Enough of us should be able to make it through this escalating global warming evolutionary bottleneck and minimize the worst of this temporary transitional evolutionary retrogression that we are currently in (and creating.)
2. Working together we will by necessity need to build many new sustainable prosperity eco-communities. These new eco-communities will serve as a critically necessary backup plan for humanity and civilization. These eco-communities will also act as successful examples and "beacons of light" teaching the new sustainable lifestyles and livelihoods vital to even having a future if we are able to make it through this emergency. (For more information on these new backup eco-communities see the eco-community model at our sister website.)
3. Overcoming this global warming emergency will also help us better solve our other major converging global adaptive challenges as well as our currently unknown future challenges as one effective and united human family. Solving this challenge will help us eventually create a sustainable prosperity for all. Click here to review the full meaning and actions of a truly sustainable prosperity.
(It is important to understand what are our other major converging global adaptive challenges because the global warming emergency is taking place as an integral part of those other challenges. Our global warming emergency is not only a multiplier of those other global adaptive challenges it also helps cause or magnify our global warming emergency and vice versa. Some of the other global adaptive challenges are even the roots of the deepest causes of the global warming emergency.)
4. We are intelligent and adaptive beings and we are able to solve or adapt to almost anything.
5. The future is unknown and full of unpredictable negative and positive wild cards. This means that there is still hope for some of humanity and civilization to thrive and survive if we quickly exercise responsible, intelligent and effective, "first things first" critical path adaptive actions to manage the global warming emergency. See Our Job One for Humanity Plan.
6. We can still fully enjoy each day (as best as we can, even in spite of the rapidly destabilizing climate, escalating global warming catastrophes and other deteriorating or retrogressing global challenges. We can and should make our lives as happy and as good as they can be during this hopefully temporary global warming retrogression and transitional period.
7. There are more good news and surprise benefits about the global warming emergency that offers additional hope for the evolution of humanity, click here for them. This is one of the most read pages on our website.
As Michael Dowd the evolutionary teacher likes to say "what really matters is coming back into right relationship with reality." Because we have failed to effectively resolve escalating global warming over the last 30+ years of warnings by our best scientists, we will now literally be forced by its escalating consequences to come back into a new right relationship with its harsh and disruptive reality or we will perish!
To create a right relationship with the reality of out of control global warming our organization has evolved into an eco-community of sustainability advocates and Evolutioneers that value the wisdom of appropriate threat preparedness, adaptability and living sustainably. We are not fear manipulated or fear dominated, but we also will never ignore painful data that should trigger protective and useful evolutionary fear reactions, like our current global warming emergency. We use such "warning feedback" and appropriate evolutionary fear to wisely anticipate, avoid, prepare and/or adapt.
What You Can Do Right Now to Help Slow Our Global Warming Consequences and Improve Your Chances of Survival?
A major part of our story as an organization is that we have created and we forward the free Job One for Humanity Global Warming Adaptation Plan to help you and society prepare for and adapt to the current global warming emergency so that we can salvage as much of humanity and civilization as is possible.
The Job One Plan is a critical deadline-driven “first things first” plan designed to help individuals and groups:
- do everything within your power to slow the crossing the final catastrophic tipping point of carbon 600 ppm by cutting all global carbon emissions by the amounts and time tables mentioned previously. (See Part 3 of the Job One Plan and Part 4 of the Job One Plan.)
- make the necessary emergency backup and recovery preparations before it is too late, (Part 1 of the Job One Plan,)
- adapt locally to the new realities of out-of-control global warming. Click here for details on how to do this in Part 1 of the Job One Plan,
- plan and execute the necessary migration of individuals, families, businesses, and communities as well as critically needed infrastructure to areas that will be much safer from the 20 worst consequences of global warming, Part One Of the Job One Plan,)
- implement effective global warming slow and lessen strategies wherever possible in your current location as an individual, (Part 2 of the Job One Plan,) And
- obtain effective sustainable lifestyle and livelihood action steps so that when we do get through this with whatever is left of humanity, we have already created the needed new practices that will re-stabilize our climate and weather at or near its original state --- a state which has successfully sustained humanity and humanities ancestors for hundreds of thousands of years, (Part 2 of the Job One Plan.)
Never forget, if we fail and cross the carbon 600 ppm threshold, there is literally no livable future you would want to inhabit (if we do not make the required critical fossil fuel cuts mentioned previously) Never forget we are not talking about vague statistics and possibilities here. We are talking about unconscionably high probabilities here and the lives of you, your family and billions of other individuals, families, and children all over the world! Click here to see your first action steps on the Job One plan.
Click here to read a short page on the four critical global warming deadlines to never forget.
More good news: How our nonprofit organization is uniquely reacting to create the best possible outcomes
In addition to executing the Job One action plan above, we are also adapting in a special way as an organization that bears additional discussion before the unavoidable collapse. (This is a collapse will continue occurring in many of our ecological, biological and human systems and sub-systems at accelerating rates.)
We are preparing and growing our local eco-community and promoting the creation of other national and international eco-communities in advance. We are doing this solely because the current facts clearly shout that many of our ecological (and in some areas our economic, political and social systems,) are in severe challenge or, are nearing critical tipping points or collapse with no (or low,) remaining recovery resilience left to "right the ship."
To the discerning evaluator and researcher both human history and the current global warming facts indicate that many of our other non-global warming converging global challenges will continue to get worse faster with little realistic hope of correction before a chain reaction of multiple or, cascading global catastrophes and crossed tipping points shakes us and wakes us to the need for drastic and immediate evolutionary improvement toward more sustainable livelihoods and lifestyles.
Because of what we are now doing as a species (expanding fossil fuel use and its consequent atmospheric carbon pollution,) and not doing, (immediately establishing strictly enforceable international carbon pollution limitation laws,) as well as not living more sustainable lives, global warming continues to get worse but now on an exponential curve. And, it will get much, much worse in the decades to come because of our inadequate current political and economic global warming remedial actions.
We are not detached survivalists waiting for the end of the world! We are engaged sustainability advocates and Evolutioneers working actively to create a better world. We believe whole-heartedly in working for the best possible future while at the same time wisely being prepared for the worst possible and hopefully temporary transition period.
To help deal with this global warming emergency, we also envision that by necessity and as a safeguard, there also needs to be a widespread establishment of multitudes of new sustainable eco-communities in all of the global warming safe zones. We hope we will play an essential role in securing the survival of humanity and civilization and in the establishment of the new sustainable prosperity vision within the post-global warming culture that survives the future and learns from the past.
By helping to create these new emergency backup eco-communities in the global warming save zones, driven into creation by the urgency of the global warming emergency, we together can help create a better path for the possible long-term future of humanity and our civilization.
How we will achieve our above goals and make Limoncello out of rotten lemons
We will enact our mission and message only by using only peaceful and evolutionary means and where we can still find enjoyment and joy in relationship and experience of our day to day lives.
Even if the escalating global warming emergency and the convergence of it with humanity's other major converging global adaptive challenges was somehow resolved in the next 30 to 50 years or turned out to be not as bad as is currently predicted, these new eco-communities would function even better and more joyously on their other goals of helping to co-create the necessary re-structuring and re-alignment of society necessary to create:
b.) a just civilization and
c.) thriving and meaning-filled individuals and communities --- all of which will better align with and forward a positive and progressive evolution of life in the universe.
Ultimately, no matter how bad it gets, by focusing on adapting to the challenges in front of us and then learning from it, and taking whatever outcome that we are given using that outcome both as a foundation and as motivation for building a better world (once all of the resistant previous human structures have collapsed and are no longer in the way of the necessary changes we should've made long ago,) we are not only doing the best thing possible, we are also working for the best possible outcome.
If there is this Great Collapse after the Great Convergence of our current global warming consequences converging with our other major global challenges, and if, we are ready and are humble enough to learn from our mistakes, we have the opportunity for a Great Rebuilding with the reward of a much better world for all of us who are cooperative and smart enough to prepare, adapt, survive and learn.
As things get worse, try to keep your attention on the parts of the Job One Plan to prevent global warming extinction that you can get done. Try also to focus on the truth that if we collapse the world and it's beautiful ecological, biological, social and political systems, there will be a post-collapse beautiful new beginning that you will play an important role in helping to create.
To learn much more about these new eco-communities click here and, you will be taken to a sister website.
To learn more about our specific and detailed global warming emergency preparedness recommendations and strategies please click here.
Also, see this page to learn more about the new Evolutioneers who will be building these new "beacon of light" eco-communities.
And finally, in case you are interested...
How Was This Horrendous Global Warming Nightmare Ever Allowed to Happen?
The current global warming remedial strategies forwarded by our governments, most environmental organizations, and the IPPC will not save us in time because they are simply not acknowledging to either themselves or to the public the painful new reality that we have already reached the level of out of control global warming for at least the next 30-50 years. Because they are not acknowledging that this new reality exists, they are not also not preparing for or dealing with it!
There are many reasons the pre-mentioned organizations are not telling the full truth about our global warming future. Some organizations and nations are truly ignorant and have not put all the research pieces and probable timelines together at the necessary systems or meta-systemic analysis level. Some organizations and nations fear the public will panic if they tell the whole truth. Some organizations and nations are keeping this news private to a privileged few so that those individuals or nations can seek or maintain security or economic advantages.
If we as individuals are consciously paying attention to the destabilizing climate around us, it is not hard to see reality is already "forcing" us to face the bad global warming news in the form of increasingly more severe, frequent and larger scaled global warming consequences.
The good news here is that as adults, many of us have already learned the valuable lesson for the need to face bad news and painful realities. We have also learned that whenever we do not face the reality of some important problem and deal with it, that particular reality (problem,) not only gets worse, it also usually lasts longer.
As an organization we have the courage and duty to speak out about these difficult global warming truths, but please do not mistake us for some kind of survivalist organization or apocalyptic community just because we inform you candidly about the soon-coming and life-ending consequences of our current out of control global warming emergency.
We are a non-profit global warming education organization working for the benefit of society.
Our message is simple. Because global warming has already become out of our meaningful control for at least the next 30-50 years, we need to adapt to this new reality and try to slow down the worst of it so that we have more time to prepare and/or migrate so that more us can survive as best we can. Our hope is also that those who do survive will learn from what has happened and from those lessons they will be the "seeds" of a better future.
It's time to accept the bitter reality that the battle to keep our current level of global warming from continuing to rise steadily for as long as the next 30-50+ years and prevent now unavoidable consequences is near certainly over! We now need to face and process this difficult reality and slow down global warming in any way we can while also moving on to whatever we can still save and salvage.
Fact 1: We are not being told the painful truth by our governments, our intelligence agencies or even our biggest environmental groups about how bad global warming currently is and more importantly, how bad it's going to get in the near future.
Fact 2: Because of our long delay in fixing this crisis, many global warming consequences are not only going to be far worse than we are being told, they also are coming far sooner than we are being told.
Fact 3: We have, unfortunately, missed our critical "window of opportunity" to effectively manage global warming and prevent most of its worst consequences and crossed tipping points from occurring. (Many of the worst consequences are now unavoidable and out of our meaningful control for at least the next 30-50 years.)
Fact 4: If we act correctly and immediately, we may still have a small amount of time (about 6 years,) to slow down the worst of these unavoidable global warming consequences just enough to protect ourselves and maximize our individual chances of avoiding extinction. (This is possible even though most of humanity will suffer and die far sooner than anyone is ready for.)
Fact 5: Because there is still no guarantee that we will act any differently than we have for the last 35 years to slow down global warming sufficiently to prevent a fast track to extinction, it is time for rational, wise and mature individuals to begin creating emergency backup plans and start their personal emergency preparations. This emergency preparation could even include migrating to areas that would be safer from the effects of global warming.
We have already crossed the point of no return for at least the next 30-50 years with all of its associated unavoidable consequences and what we must do now is to prepare for and adapt to what we cannot avoid while still trying to slow down global warming enough so that we still have enough time left to save and salvage whatever we can. Therefore the Mission of Job One for Humanity must, at all costs, be to help society and its members slow global warming to prevent complete human extinction due to rapidly escalating global warming consequences.
We do this by:
a. warning you (and society,) about our current state of out of control global warming (for at least the next 30-50 years,) and why we must radically reduce fossil fuel use to slow down the process of crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point. (The timetables for global warming's 20 worst consequences and 11 key tipping points is found on our website and in the new book Climageddon.)
b. helping you prepare for and adapt to the reality of the likelihood of living in a world where as much as 70-90+ percent of the unprepared human population will die soon. Global warming extinction is no longer a remote possibility coming sometime after 2100 as we have been told, it will be arriving as soon as the next 30 to 50 years if we do not immediately make the required fossil fuel cuts! (We are, unfortunately, already moving rapidly through the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario extinction model. For information on how to prepare and adapt information so more of us live longer and suffer less is contained in both Part 1 of the Job One Plan as well as Part 2 of the Job One Plan) and,
d. helping inclined individuals and groups create sustainable, self-organizing and independent eco-communities in global warming-safe locations to help make sure that enough of these new communities are established and well-prepared to survive the escalating onslaught of now unavoidable global warming catastrophes. These new experimental communities will likely be essential to help carry forward the survival of humanity, human culture, and civilization if we fail to make the required fossil fuel reductions. (See the Universe Community sections of our sister website for all the information you will need to do to create and self-organize your own sustainable eco-community in a global warming-safe zone.)
e. Once we have survived the global warming emergency and have learned the hard experiential lessons it will teach us, we (this organization and the new eco-communities mentioned above,) will promote a new and proven understanding of sustainable living and sustainable livelihoods to help transform the trauma and loss of the coming global warming collapse into a springboard for building a better and more just world that will thrive again for hundreds of generations. (Click here to learn about that new Sustainable Prosperity.)
What we do know is that, no matter what, and in spite of all of the challenges and bad outcomes that are possible, the single constant truth for the best possible global warming outcome is that --- the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use, the more people we will survive to carry on our civilization, and that future generations will suffer less from the ever-increasing sequence of global warming consequences as described fully in what is called the Climageddon Scenario.
Sign the Petition to Declare a Global Warming State of Emergency
If you're still feeling in denial, angry, sad, anxious or fearful about what you have just read
Yes, global warming is now out of control for at least the next 30-50 years and there are major, unthinkable and unavoidable consequences coming at the carbon 500 and 600 ppm near extinction and extinction tipping points. Yes, those are just about the worst imaginable facts to process!
If you're like most people, the above materials you just read will cause you to initially react with denial.
If you had and have the tenacity to keep exploring the facts and consequences described above, you will likely next become angry at "how could we (our politicians and governments,) ever allow this to happen."
If you still continue processing the global warming facts above, you will most likely then enter into a bargaining phase to find some kind of a way to deal with such disturbing and disruptive information and fit it into your life and mindset.
If you still continue researching and verifying what you have read, you will most likely next enter into a transitional feeling of grief.
As you work your way through your grief, you will eventually come to a level of acceptance of what is scientifically accurate, but currently is being widely suppressed or ignored by the fossil fuel industry, mass media, and the many politicians around the world owned by the fossil fuel industry.
Once you finally reach the level of acceptance for what you have read, you will likely begin the process of adapting your life and businesses to this critical information. You may also begin emergency preparations for the unavoidable, unconscionable shocking global warming consequences described above.
The information in this document is being suppressed partially to continue profiting on fossil fuel use and partially because those suppressing it are very afraid of how you will react to this information. They are afraid that if you understand what is on this page, you too will demand that our politicians immediately implement radical cuts to global fossil fuel use while at the same time radically scale up green energy generation alternatives to replace fossil fuel use.
If you are still having trouble dealing with the upsetting reality of out of control global warming and its worst consequences coming faster than we are ready for, we strongly suggest you learn more about the Kubler Ross denial, anger, bargining, grief and aqcceptance model to help you deal with your global warming fear or anxiety.
It is the emotional transitional model now being used to help people deal with the news from their doctor that they are going to die over some known time period. It has perfect relevance because, once you truly grasp the scale and seriousness of the rapidly escalating global warming emergency as described above, you too will realize that our lives and our children's lives are clearly going to be far more time-limited than we ever imagined, while at the same time, they will also be severely harmed by global warming's 20 worst consequences.
Other related information:
If you would like to know more about how this gross misinformation of the public over a 30-year timeframe concerning the global warming emergency occurred, click here and go to the end of the page to the subtitle, How this Gross Misinformation Occurred.