Last updated 2.16.26. (G)

The following definitions and descriptions in our climate change glossary are helpful to understanding the states, processes, and consequences of global warming (also known as climate change). This Climate change glossary and it's abbreviations will hopefully make it considerably easier for the public to comprehend the many complex facts and processes surrounding today's global warming issues. 

Alphabetized Climate Change Terminology and Abbreviations 

40th parallel north: The 40th parallel north is 40°N latitude (not 45°N). It crosses the U.S., southern Europe, and parts of Asia. Used on Job One as a rough boundary for habitability risk. 

40th parallel south: A line of latitude at 40°S, crossing parts of South America, New Zealand, and the Southern Ocean; sometimes used as a heuristic boundary for comparing relative climate risks between hemispheres.

 

Adaptation: Adjustments in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected climate impacts, to reduce harm or take advantage of opportunities.

Aerosol: Tiny airborne particles (natural or human-made) that can cool or warm climate directly (by scattering/absorbing sunlight) and indirectly (by altering clouds).

Aerosol unmasking: Warming that becomes apparent when reflective pollution aerosols decline, removing their short-term cooling influence. (Often discussed as a contributor to near-term warming rate changes.)

Airborne fraction: The fraction of emitted CO₂ that remains in the atmosphere after land and ocean uptake.

AGGI (Annual Greenhouse Gas Index): NOAA index tracking how the warming influence (effective radiative forcing) from long-lived greenhouse gases has changed over time (indexed to 1990 = 1). NOAA also reports a CO₂-equivalent abundance concept alongside it.

Albedo: Reflectivity of a surface (ice, clouds, deserts, oceans). Higher albedo reflects more sunlight and tends to cool.

AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation): Large-scale Atlantic ocean circulation that transports heat; weakening affects regional climate patterns, sea level along coasts, and rainfall distributions

Anthropogenic: Caused by human activity (e.g., fossil fuel combustion, land-use change).AR6 (Added)

AR6: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021–2023), the main multi-volume assessment of climate science, impacts, and mitigation.

 

 

Baseline: A reference period or scenario used for comparison (e.g., pre-industrial baseline, baseline emissions scenario).

BECCS: Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Biomass is used for energy and resulting CO₂ is captured and stored; proposed as a carbon removal pathway (with land/food/ecosystem tradeoffs).

Bifurcation: In complex systems, a shift where small parameter changes cause a sudden change in system behavior (often used in tipping point discussions).

Biosphere: All living organisms and ecosystems interacting with atmosphere, land, and oceans.

Black carbon: Soot particles from incomplete combustion; warms climate by absorbing sunlight and darkening snow/ice.

 

 

Carbon budget: The cumulative CO₂ emissions compatible with limiting warming to a given temperature target (often framed as a “remaining carbon budget”).

Carbon capture and storage (CCS): Capturing CO₂ from point sources (or air), then transporting and storing it (usually geologically) to prevent atmospheric release.

Carbon cycle: Movement of carbon among atmosphere, ocean, land biosphere, and geologic reservoirs.

Carbon dioxide (CO₂): The principal long-lived human-caused greenhouse gas, produced by fossil fuel burning, cement, and land-use change.

Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂eq): A way to express the climate effect of different greenhouse gases in terms of an equivalent amount of CO₂ over a specified time horizon (commonly GWP-100).

CDR: Methods that remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and store it durably (e.g., DACCS, enhanced mineralization, some ecosystem methods).

Carbon neutrality: Broadly, balancing CO₂ emissions with CO₂ removals over a period. Often overlaps with “net zero CO₂,” but definitions depend on accounting boundaries and rules.

Carbon parts per million (ppm) (page): Uses “carbon ppm” language to describe atmospheric concentration a

Carbon parts per million (ppm): Atmospheric concentration is measured as CO₂ (ppm) (or other gases like CH₄ in ppb). Saying “carbon ppm” is ambiguous. For recent observed levels, WMO reports global mean CO₂ ~423.9 ppm in 2024 (with CH₄ and N₂O also at record levels).

Carbon sequestration: Capturing and storing carbon in forests/soils (biological) or underground formations (geological) to reduce atmospheric CO₂.

Carbon sinks: Natural or managed systems that absorb more carbon than they emit (e.g., forests, soils, oceans).

Carbon 425–450 ppm tipping point: Paleoclimate work suggests major long-term Earth system changes occur across CO₂ ranges in this neighborhood depending on boundary conditions and feedbacks.  It as a Job One heuristic/risk marker, not a formal scientific threshold.

Cascade effects: A chain reaction where one climate impact/tipping process increases the likelihood of others.

Catastrophic climate destabilization: Severe disruption producing widespread harm and potential failure of key human and ecological systems.

Celsius-to-Fahrenheit conversions: °F = (°C × 9/5) + 32; °C = (°F − 32) × 5/9.

CERES (Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System): NASA satellite instruments measuring Earth’s radiation budget (incoming/outgoing energy), used to assess energy imbalance and cloud effects.

CH₄ (Methane): Potent greenhouse gas with strong near-term warming impact; sources include fossil fuel systems, agriculture, wetlands, and thawing permafrost.

Climate: Statistical description of average weather and variability over time (often 30 years) and across relevant variables (temperature, precipitation, wind, etc.).

 

Climate change: Climate change is the standard scientific term for a persistent change in the state of climate (means/variability) over decades or longer, due to natural processes and/or human forcing. “Global warming” is a subset focused on long-term temperature rise.

Climate Change Consequences: Consequences caused directly or indirectly by climate change.

 

 

Climate change commitment: Unavoidable future climate change resulting from inertia in the climate system and socio-economic systems.

Climate (temperature) commitment: Additional warming expected from existing concentrations/forcing and system inertia, even if emissions change.

Climate sensitivity: The change in surface temperature in response to a change in atmospheric CO₂ concentration or other radiative forcing.
(Common subtypes: ECS, TCR, Earth system sensitivity, effective ECS. See those entries.)

Climageddon: Job One’s term for a catastrophic global warming outcome scenario involving escalating feedbacks, tipping points, and societal disruption.

 

Climageddon feedback loop: Job One framing for interacting reinforcing feedbacks that amplify warming and impacts (useful as a narrative, but label as Job One terminology if used externally).

Climageddon Scenario: Job One scenario description of compounding climate consequences and cascading failures.

 

 

 

Cloud-aerosol interactions: How aerosols modify cloud formation/brightness/lifetime, affecting reflection of sunlight and precipitation patterns.

Compound extremes: Multiple climate extremes occurring together or sequentially (e.g., heat + drought + wildfire).

Complex adaptive system: A system with many interacting parts that adapts and self-organizes; can show nonlinear behavior and tipping.

COP: “Conference of the Parties” under the UNFCCC (e.g., COP28), where international climate negotiations occur.

Critical slowing down: A signal that a system is nearing a tipping point, where recovery from perturbations becomes slower.

Cryosphere: Earth’s frozen water (glaciers, ice sheets, sea ice, snow, permafrost).

 

DAC: Direct air capture of CO₂.

DACCS: Direct air capture with carbon storage.

Deforestation: Removal of forests, reducing carbon storage and often increasing emissions.

Degree Heating Weeks (DHW): Metric of accumulated heat stress on coral reefs above a bleaching threshold over time.

Deoxygenation: Declining oxygen levels in the ocean, driven by warming and stratification, stressing marine life.

Destructive creation: Job One framing for growth/innovation processes that generate systemic harm (especially via ecological and climate costs).

DMAP (Dialectical metasystemic analysis and problem solving)

 

Earth’s energy imbalance: Difference between energy absorbed from the Sun and energy radiated back to space; positive imbalance means warming tendency.

Effective radiative forcing (ERF): Radiative forcing definition that includes rapid atmospheric adjustments, but excludes surface temperature response (AR6 usage).

Effective equilibrium climate sensitivity: Estimate of temperature response to CO₂ doubling inferred from models/observations under evolving, non-equilibrium conditions.

El Niño: Warm phase of ENSO that affects global weather patterns and short-term global temperature variability.

ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation): Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Pacific (El Niño and La Niña phases).

Ensemble: A set of multiple model runs (with varied initial conditions/parameters/models) to estimate uncertainty.

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS): Long-term (equilibrium) global temperature change after a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ from pre-industrial conditions.

Evapotranspiration: Combined evaporation + plant transpiration; key driver of drought/heat interactions.

Extinction-level climate destabilization: Job One framing for climate-driven conditions that could cause massive biodiversity loss and severe risk to human civilization.

 

 

Feedback loop: A process where an initial change triggers effects that either amplify (positive) or dampen (negative) the original change.

 

Forcing: External driver that changes Earth’s energy balance (e.g., GHG increases, solar variability, aerosols).

Freshwater anomalies/freshwater forcing: Large freshwater inputs (e.g., ice melt) that can disrupt ocean circulation and stratification.

 

 

Garrett global warming crisis: Job One term for systemic, civilization-level risk dynamics attributed to warming impacts.

Geoengineering: Large-scale deliberate interventions in the climate system, usually discussed as CDR or SRM (with high governance and risk concerns).

Greenhouse gas (GHG): Gas that absorbs/emits infrared radiation, warming the lower atmosphere (e.g., CO₂, CH₄, N₂O).

Global mean temperature: Globally averaged temperature metric (surface air or surface) used to track warming.

Global mean sea level (GMSL): Global average sea level; rises due to ocean warming (expansion) and land ice melt.

Global warming: Long-term increase in Earth’s global average surface temperature, primarily driven by human-caused greenhouse gases.

Global warming consequences: Job One grouping for impacts such as extreme heat, drought, storms, sea level rise, ecosystem collapse, etc.

Global warming emergency: If you cite “current concentration,” update to the latest authoritative observed values (e.g., WMO reports global mean CO₂ ~423.9 ppm in 2024, with CH₄ and N₂O also at record highs). Also: use CO₂ ppm, not “carbon ppm.”

Global warming potential (GWP): Metric comparing heat-trapping of a gas to CO₂ over a time horizon (often 20 or 100 years). Depends strongly on chosen horizon.

Grounding line: Boundary where an ice sheet transitions from resting on bedrock to floating as an ice shelf; key for ice-sheet stability.

GtCO₂: Gigatonnes of carbon dioxide.

GtC: Gigatonnes of carbon (1 GtC = 3.664 GtCO₂).

 

 

HFCs: Hydrofluorocarbons, potent greenhouse gases used in refrigeration; regulated under Kigali Amendment.

Hysteresis: Path dependence where reversing a driver does not simply reverse the system state (important in tipping systems).

 

Ice sheet: Large mass of land ice (Greenland, Antarctica).

IMO2020: Shipping fuel sulfur regulations that reduced sulfate aerosols; often discussed in relation to aerosol cooling changes.

Integrated assessment model (IAM): Model combining climate, economy, energy, land, and policy to explore scenarios and pathways.

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, UN body assessing climate science.

Irreversible climate change: Changes that persist for centuries to millennia (e.g., sea level rise components, ice-sheet loss).Irreversible climate destabilization

Irreversible climate destabilization: Job One framing for self-reinforcing disruption that cannot be easily stopped or reversed on human time scales.

Irreversible global warming: Defined as warming that “will continue to get worse even if humans stop adding to it.”

Keating curve: The standard term is the Keeling Curve: the observed long-term rise (plus seasonal cycle) of atmospheric CO₂ concentration measured at Mauna Loa and elsewhere.

 

 

 

Keystone tipping point: A tipping point that triggers other dependent and interconnected tipping points. Crossing a keystone tipping point is one of the potential triggers for irreversible global warming, leading into the later extinction phases of the Climageddon Scenario. 

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La Niña: Cool phase of ENSO; affects global weather patterns and short-term global temperature variability.

Lag: Delay between forcing (e.g., emissions) and full system response (e.g., ocean heat uptake).

Lapse rate: Rate temperature decreases with altitude; changes in lapse rate influence climate feedbacks.

LULUCF: Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry sector in emissions accounting.

 

Marine heatwave: Prolonged period of unusually warm ocean temperatures relative to a baseline.

Mass balance: Net gain/loss of ice in a glacier or ice sheet (accumulation minus melt/discharge).

Methane time bomb: Popularized phrase for large potential methane release from thawing permafrost/hydrates; magnitude and timing remain uncertain.

Mitigation: Human interventions to reduce greenhouse gas sources or enhance sinks (emissions cuts, efficiency, renewables, CDR, etc.).

 

 

N₂O (Nitrous oxide): Long-lived greenhouse gas, strongly influenced by agriculture and industrial processes.

NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution): A country’s stated plan under the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts.

Net negative emissions: A state where removals exceed emissions, lowering atmospheric greenhouse gas levels.

Net zero: Balancing greenhouse gas emissions with removals over a specified period (definitions depend on gases, scope, and accounting). The concept is central to stabilizing warming.

Nonlinear: System response that is not proportional to input; includes thresholds and abrupt changes.

 

Ocean acidification: Decrease in ocean pH caused by uptake of CO₂, affecting carbonate chemistry and marine life.

Ocean heat content: Total heat stored in the ocean; a major indicator of planetary energy imbalance.

Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR): Infrared energy emitted to space; changes reflect greenhouse effect strength and temperature.

Overshoot: Exceeding a temperature or concentration target temporarily, then returning below later (typically requiring net negative emissions).

 

Paris Agreement: 2015 UN treaty aiming to hold warming well below 2°C and pursue 1.5°C, using NDCs and periodic global stocktakes.

PETM (Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum): Rapid warming event ~56 million years ago associated with large carbon release; used as an analog for long-term Earth system response.

PgC: Petagram of carbon (1 PgC = 1 GtC).

Point of no return (PoNR): A threshold beyond which a system transitions into a new state that is difficult or impossible to reverse on relevant time scales.

Positive feedback loop: A feedback that amplifies the initial change (e.g., ice-albedo feedback, some carbon cycle feedbacks).

 

Precautionary principle: If an action risks severe or irreversible harm, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used to delay preventative measures.

ppm/ppmv: For atmospheric gases, concentrations are typically reported as mole fraction(effectively “by volume” for ideal gases), often written as ppm (or historically ppmv). “By weight” is not the standard framing for atmospheric mixing ratios.

 

Radiant energy flows: Incoming solar radiation and outgoing reflected/infrared radiation that define Earth’s energy budget.

Radiative forcing (W/m²): Change in net (down minus up) radiative flux due to an external driver (GHGs, aerosols, solar), expressed in W/m².

Reanalysis: Blended historical weather/climate datasets combining observations with model physics via data assimilation.

Resilience: Capacity of a system to cope with disturbance and reorganize while retaining core function/structure.

Runaway global warming: Term used inconsistently in public discourse. In strict physics, “runaway greenhouse effect” refers to a Venus-like regime; many “runaway” uses actually mean self-reinforcing warming or tipping cascades. If you use it, define it carefully.

 

 

Runaway greenhouse effect: Extreme state where greenhouse trapping overwhelms outgoing radiation feedbacks, causing very large warming (classically associated with Venus-like conditions; not the same as current Earth warming trajectory in mainstream assessments).

 

Short-lived climate forcers/pollutants (SLCFs/SLCPs): Short-lived warming or cooling agents (methane, black carbon, some aerosols) that affect near-term climate.

Sixth Great Extinction: Current biodiversity crisis driven by multiple pressures, with climate change as a major amplifier.

SLR: Rise in average sea level due to ocean warming (expansion) and land ice loss.

SROCC: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways): Scenario families describing alternative socio-economic futures; used with climate forcing pathways to generate projections (e.g., SSP1-2.6).

Stratification: Layering of the ocean by density; stronger stratification reduces mixing and can worsen deoxygenation.

Sustainable prosperity: Job One term for achieving wellbeing within ecological limits.

 

 

TCRE (Transient climate response to cumulative CO₂ emissions): Temperature change per unit cumulative CO₂ emitted (links cumulative emissions to warming).

TCR (Transient climate response): Temperature response at the time CO₂ doubles under a 1%/yr CO₂ increase experiment (around year 70).

Thermal inertia: Resistance to temperature change (notably oceans), causing delayed warming response.

Thermokarst: Ground collapse and landscape change from thawing ice-rich permafrost, often releasing carbon and methane.

Threshold: A boundary condition beyond which system behavior changes qualitatively.

Tipping point: A critical threshold where a small change can trigger a large shift in system state.

Tipping element: A component of the Earth system that can tip (ice sheets, AMOC, Amazon, etc.).

Transient climate response to cumulative CO₂ emissions (TCRE)

TCRE: See TCRE.

 

 

Vapor pressure deficit (VPD): Measure of how “dry” the air is relative to saturation; higher VPD increases plant water stress and wildfire risk.

 

W/m² (watts per square meter): Unit of radiative flux used for radiative forcing and energy budget terms.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS): Marine-based ice sheet vulnerable to ocean-driven melt and grounding-line retreat; major sea level rise risk.

WG1: IPCC Working Group I (physical science basis).

WG2: IPCC Working Group II (impacts, adaptation, vulnerability).

Wild card: Low-probability, high-impact event or surprise change in system behavior.

ZEC (Zero emissions commitment): Climate change commitment (in temperature terms) following the cessation of CO₂ emissions, determined by physical and carbon-cycle inertia.

 

 

 

 

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About Irreversible Global Warming

 

 

 

The three phases of the state of irreversible global warming

Think of irreversible global warming in three distinct phases. Each stage has additional, more severe consequences that will last longer, causing greater global damage. With each phase, the unconscionable grows closer.

Phase 1: According to James Hansen, the world-renowned climate scientist, we entered the first phase of irreversible global warming in 2016, when we crossed the 386 ppm threshold of atmospheric carbon. Once we crossed that threshold, we were committed to a 1.5°C increase in average global temperature over pre-industrial levels. As a reference point, 350 ppm of carbon is the level humanity needs to stay below to ensure a safe and stable climate. Before the Industrial Revolution, the average atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was approximately 270 parts per million (ppm).

Phase 2: Once humanity crossed the threshold of approximately 425-450 ppm for carbon dioxide, it entered what we call the second phase of irreversible global warming. In the second phase of irreversible global warming, we can’t stop carbon ppm levels from continuing to rise at approximately 2.7 to 3 ppm+ or more per year for at least another 30-50 years. Once we crossed that 425 ppm threshold, we were committed to a 2-2.7°C (or more) increase in average global temperature relative to pre-industrial levels. At about the carbon 425 to 450 PPM range, we begin crossing so many climate system and sub-system tipping points, feedback loops, and nonlinear reactions that climate change in global warming moves into another more serious and intense level of irreversibility.

Phase 3: Once humanity crosses the 450 ppm threshold and moves toward 500 ppm, 600 ppm, and 700 ppm and beyond, humanity is condemned to a future hell on Earth. Once we cross the 450 ppm threshold, we will be committed to an unsurvivable increase of 3 to 5 degrees C (or more) in average global temperature over pre-industrial levels for much of humanity. Worse yet, as this is the third and final phase of irreversible global warming, the average global temperature could rise significantly, with some newer forecasts predicting an increase of up to 12°C by 2100.

As global warming intensifies, the bad news is that climate change becomes increasingly irreversible over centuries to thousands of years. If you want to dive much deeper into the science, the phased timetables, and the many life-or-death consequences of irreversible global warming, please click here.

 

What does the current state of irreversible global warming mean to your future?

Due to extensive new climate change research findings, the gross miscalculations by the IPCC and other global warming authorities, the increase in average global warming temperatures, and the crossing of numerous bellwether tipping points, our organization now acknowledges and actively conveys the sobering fact that global warming has now entered a state of transitional irreversibility. But first, we must put this horrible climate news into an appropriate context to prepare you to respond in a balanced, rational, and hope-filled way.

Although rising global warming has now reached phase 2 irreversibility and many of its primary and secondary consequences will last for decades to centuries, we still have a significant amount of time left (approximately 5 to 10 years, if we are very lucky, 2026-2035) to prepare, adapt, build resilience, or migrate if appropriate to save ourselves and much of humanity and civilization as is possible. If you are not well prepared locally, mass migration shifts driven by accelerating climate change, its escalating economic effects, and/or political destabilization will rapidly intensify in almost all areas of the world within about 5 to 10 years.

It is helpful to think about our condition of irreversible global warming as a slow-moving, planet-crippling-sized asteroid about 5-10 years away from colliding with Earth. It may be moving slowly, but it will cause a lot of damage; many unprepared people will perish, and only the foolish will not begin preparing for the inevitable arrival of the asteroid.

However, the good news is that if we are smart and move quickly to prepare and adapt, we can still mitigate or minimize the worst consequences of the coming years, thereby reducing suffering, financial losses, and deaths. That is a reasonable and rational response. Over the next 5 to 10 years (2026-2035), we can still significantly protect the quality of our lives, far longer than those who deny, ignore, or are unaware of this disheartening and irreversible current reality of global warming.

 

What do we have to do to end the current state of irreversible global warming?

Our current state of irreversible global warming does not have to be permanent, but it will be very difficult and painful to make the immediate, necessary changes to get us out of it. To do so, we must make VERY radical, immediate reductions in global fossil fuel use. There is no other solution that will work in time.

The many other solutions being proposed, without an immediate and radical reduction in global fossil fuel use, are too little, too late, and carry a highly probable catastrophic global outcome. Our governments have failed to do this for 60 years, despite being aware of the long-term consequences of climate change. While we can hope that our governments will suddenly change course, it is unlikely, but there is some good news here.

Even though it's unlikely that our governments will act in time to save us from many of the worst consequences of climate change, the radical and painful actions of Mother Nature will most probably save us from ourselves and from total extinction. It is truly disheartening when we cannot rely on our elected politicians to protect us from the ultimate threat of mass to near-total extinction. We must now depend upon the natural processes of Mother Nature to save us and restore the climate balance that has nurtured us and the development of humanity for 10,000 years. Click here to read how the evolutionary actions of Mother Nature will save us from the obscene incompetence or inaction of our politicians and governments. 

 

Why have we reached our current, irreversible Phase 2 state of global warming?

Phases 1 and 2 of irreversible global warming have occurred because:

1. For the last 60 years, nations, political systems, and politicians have been compromised by the wealth and multi-billion-dollar disinformation and misinformation campaigns of the global fossil fuel cartel.  

2. The gross miscalculations by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC).

3. Our governments have also failed to act effectively to either slow or reverse global warming. This is despite 60+ years of loud and detailed warnings from credible climate scientists, verified scientific research, and 28 international conferences on how to address the global warming emergency. Politicians worldwide who have accepted large amounts of fossil fuel money have been the primary obstacle to initiating rational global reductions in fossil fuel use, which would save not just future generations but also their own children and later lives from untold suffering.

4. The reality of the minimum time needed to convert all global fossil fuel energy generation systems to green energy generation systems (currently about 35-50 years). This is not because adequate green technology doesn't exist! 

5 We have crossed many known and unknown global warming tipping points over the last 30 + years within relevant climate systems and subsystems. This process inevitably condemns us to continue crossing even more perilous known and unknown global-warming tipping points at ever-faster rates, year after year, as we attempt to transition to green energy systems and eliminate nearly all fossil-fuel use over the next 30-50 years.

 

Understanding fossil-fuel carbon (CO2) pollution in our atmosphere is essential to understanding our current state of irreversible global warming.

Viewing atmospheric carbon ppm measurements is the single best way to see both current and future global warming trends. Due to the laws of physics, if carbon continues to rise in the atmosphere, heat will increase. Despite what you may hear in the media, we are not making sufficient progress in reducing atmospheric carbon.

There are also minor monthly variations in carbon ppm levels, as well as cyclical weather variations driven by phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña. Despite these variations, the dominant trend over the last 70 years is that carbon ppm has been rising at an increasingly rapid rate.

At these current carbon levels, the stability of the bellwether West Antarctic ice sheet has already been breached and is now also irreversible. (The West Antarctic ice sheet is an excellent example of another critical global warming tipping point the world has hurdled past faster than anyone had foreseen.)

At the 450 ppm carbon threshold (which we will reach in approximately 6-8 years or less), we will continue to cross more of the 11 critical global warming tipping points across the climate’s various systems and subsystems, but at an even faster rate.

Once we cross the 500 ppm carbon threshold, all ice and glaciers on Earth will melt completely, and the oceans will eventually rise by 70 meters (230 feet). Crossing the 500 ppm carbon threshold has occurred repeatedly in Earth's geological history.

When we crossed this carbon ppm threshold, sea level began its rise into the 70-meter (230-foot) range. At our current annual carbon-emission rates, we will reach the catastrophic 500 ppm carbon threshold in about two dozen years or less.

The initial temperature range associated with triggering irreversible global warming is an increase in the average global temperature of about 1.5° Celsius, which, unfortunately, is already beyond where we are now, given all other “already baked in” and unchangeable global warming factors.

 

There is no way to fix our situation--only ways to survive it

To better understand why we are already committed to irreversible global warming, it is essential to examine the concept of committed global warming in more detail. It means there is already a "baked-in" average global temperature increase of about 1.5° to 2.7° Celsius that the Earth has already reached or will soon reach, and that it will not change for centuries, regardless of our actions. Worse yet, when we cross the 2°C range, it will be nearly impossible to prevent us from crossing the 3°C range, the 4°C range, and the 5°C range. At the 3°C range of increase in average global temperature, only the strongest of current governments will remain stable. That's how bad the consequences will be that our current state of irreversible global warming creates.

This is due in significant part to: 

a. the existing momentum of past carbon ppm already in the atmosphere, 

b. the new carbon ppm per year that we will inevitably and invariably keep adding over the following 3-5 decades,

c. the already existing ocean warming,

d. the unknown crossed or soon-to-be-crossed new global warming tipping points, climate change feedback loops and,

e. the necessity of compensating mathematically for the grossly unrealistic calculations by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change based on their projections for a new “miracle technology” appearing in the second half of the 21st century for the mass removal of carbon or other greenhouse gases like methane or nitrous oxide from the atmosphere. This new “miracle technology” that will save us at the last minute is a false hope and delusional groupthink distortion of the worst kind. It undermines the urgency required to address and mitigate the climate change emergency effectively.

 

False promises for a nonexistent "miracle technology" that can't save us in time

Unfortunately for us, it is this currently non-existent, earnestly wished-for “miracle technology” that the IPPC’s 2015 Paris Agreement calculations relied most heavily on to keep our future average global temperature increases below their now unattainable 2 °C target. The mathematical, scientific, and mechanical feasibility (to adequately scale up the non-existent miracle technology), as well as the unknown negative side effects of this non-existent “miracle technology,” have already been debunked by respected climate scientists like Kevin Anderson. This nonexistent new technology will not reverse our current irreversible global warming emergency, no matter how many times famous billionaire techno-optimists like Bill Gates suggest we must believe and trust that it is coming. Click here for the whole story on the bogus carbon capture schemes of Silicon Valley.

 

The dangers of delusional groupthink on our survival

Most unfortunately of all, instead of telling the people of the world the difficult and necessary truth that we must immediately and radically cut back on fossil fuel usage to save both ourselves and future generations, the 2015 IPCC Paris agreement instead signaled:

“Don't worry, humanity, you don't have to give up any of your current comforts or even make any immediate, difficult, or costly changes in your existing fossil fuel-dependent lifestyles and business practices. A nonexistent new ‘miracle technology’ will magically appear sometime after 2050, which will allow us to suck all of those bad greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere and miraculously save us long after we have already gone way past any safe levels for fossil fuel emissions."

This type of delusional groupthink and reliance upon a magical and non-existent miraculous new technology is only appropriate in children’s fairy tales—— never for vital scientific projections, particularly when those projections are the very projections which humanity and our civilization are relying upon for planning our future survival. Click here for the whole story about how climate change forecasts have been grossly underestimated using multiple methods.

 

Would you like to see the dangerous rise of human-caused carbon ppm in our atmosphere from a longer historical perspective?

The following graph illustrates potential future problems associated with rising carbon dioxide and carbon ppm levels in the atmosphere over hundreds of thousands of years. As you can see in the last part of the graph, which is broken out in the smaller yellow box to better illustrate our last 1,000 years, we have clearly entered a whole new range of increased atmospheric carbon risk and threat exposure. We have transitioned from the long-term cyclical carbon ppm highs of the Ice Age — approximately 275 ppm — to over 425 ppm.

 

 

Image via Robert A. Rohdes, Wikimedia Commons. ( Parts per million by volume [ppmv] includes other pollutants and trace greenhouse gases, such as methane.)

For hundreds of thousands of years, throughout the various Ice Age cycles, we have consistently remained below the safe level for human civilization, approximately 275 parts per million by volume (ppmv) of carbon. However, since the beginning of our use of fossil fuels, starting with the Industrial Revolution, average global temperatures have risen to levels unseen for millions of years (approximately 1.5° to 2.7° Celsius), and atmospheric carbon levels have increased to 409 ppm today.

This is very detrimental to our futures and civilization, as mentioned above, because in 8-10 years or less, the atmospheric carbon ppm is expected to reach 450 ppm. This is roughly double the previous civilization's safe highest cyclical average over the last 400,000 years, at approximately 275 ppm carbon. 

See this page for 30+ more good reasons why runaway global heating is irreversible and already well out of our control.

 

Please keep this bad news in perspective

Due to the onset of irreversible global warming, the processes leading to our extinction have accelerated. Despite this bad news, remember that if we can honestly face this new level of threat and act now, we still have time to prepare, adapt, and save most of humanity and its achievements. Moreover, we can also continue to live meaningful and enjoyable lives! See this page now if this blog post has upset you!

 

What can you do to wisely manage this not-so-good, irreversible global warming and climate change news?

1. Begin our comprehensive and practical Plan B for surviving and thriving through the climate change emergency by clicking here.

2. See the positive and hopeful "big picture" of climate change in global warming, the way we do by clicking here and viewing the most viewed page on our website with over 2 1/2 million views.

 

Methane time bomb: Popularly known as the clathrate gun hypothesis, an increase in sea temperature that triggers a sudden release of methane from seabeds and permafrost, leading to an irreversible temperature rise. There is

 

The perfect storm of perfect storms: The process of multiple global warming tipping points crossing over to degrade and destabilize climate, human, and biological systems and subsystems in a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop and meltdown.

 

Climate change: Refugees from areas stricken by the various consequences of global warming, floods, droughts and crop failures.

 

Runaway global warming: Global warming will continue to increase on an irreversible, runaway course. Like the definition of irreversible global warming, imagine a train going down a steep hill with no functional brakes. Once the runaway global warming "train" gets started, in most cases, it will continue to roll on its own, with no practical way to stop or control it.

There are several phases to runaway global warming. These phases of runaway global warming are described here using the four extinction-level climate tipping points. The different phases or levels of a runaway global heating-driven extinction are defined as: 

1. The beginning level of runaway global warming is defined as the point where numerous climate change and global warming consequences become catastrophic and unavoidable! For example, the UN's new 1.5 °C climate cliff temperature threshold now means that, because of what just the beginning level of runaway global warming can do, going above the 1.5 °C level will eventually lead to the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. James Hansen, the world-renowned climate scientist, stated that we had entered the first phase of runaway global warming when humanity crossed the 386 PPM carbon threshold in 1986. (This link will show you how this mass extinction event will happen.)

2. The mid-phase near-total extinction level runaway global warming is the level of runaway global warming that will ensure humanity's near-total extinction.

3. The final phase of global heating is also referred to as the runaway greenhouse effect or Venus-level runaway global warming. This final phase describes the circumstance in which the climate destabilizes catastrophically and permanently from its original state. Venus-level runaway global warming will be so severe that it strips the atmosphere from our planet. As a result, the Earth will lose all human and biological life. This level of runaway global warming is believed to have occurred on the planet Venus, which lost its atmosphere to space. This is thought to have occurred on Venus 4 billion years ago, resulting in a carbon-rich atmosphere and surface temperatures as low as 462 °C.

 

Extinction-level global warming: There are three levels of climate-driven extinction-level global warming to be concerned about:

1. 1. Mass extinction: We have been so grossly ineffective in slowing and reversing global heating for so long that about half of the human population will die by mid-century. This mass extinction is unavoidable because of our 60 years of climate inaction, ineffective action, and denial. 
   2. Near-total human extinction: A global heating-driven near-total human extinction is a scenario where as much as 50-90+% of humanity could go extinct before we slow and reverse the current runaway global heating. (The processes of near-total extinction are partially described in the first three extinction-accelerating tipping points on this page and then on this page.)
   3. Total human extinction: A global heating-driven total human extinction can occur only if we allow atmospheric carbon levels to rise to 800-1700 parts per million (ppm). At those levels, we risk our atmosphere being pulled out into space, and 100% of everything else that depends upon oxygen suffocating and going entirely extinct. 

The total extinction term is associated with temperatures exceeding pre-industrial levels by 5-6 °C (9-10.8°F). Extinction-level global warming begins as early as phase 4 or phase 5 of the Climageddon Scenario. If our atmosphere is also lost in the final stages of phase 6 of the Climageddon Scenario, this will result in the extinction of almost ALL planetary life. 

 

Additional essential climate change and global warming definitions and related concepts:

There are other, more complex essential climate change terms you will eventually need to understand to grasp the current climate emergency and the climate science and research papers that have predicted it. At some point, we recommend that you look up each of the following terms on Wikipedia. Their definitions are comprehensive, with illustrations on these complex climate science issues:

carbon sinks,

climate sensitivity,

net-zero carbon,

radiative forcing effect, 

complex adaptive systems

 

In summary

When the public considers the above facts about the causes and conditions behind the new, irreversible reality of global warming, critical-thinking individuals and organizations will agree that we have already entered a new state of irreversible global warming. Unfortunately, that also condemns us to endless chains of disastrous consequences and new crossed global warming tipping points.

Want information on how you can protect your family, business, and nation from the looming global warming catastrophes? 

Click here now.

 

If you are interested in understanding the climate science and analysis procedures we used to present the above information, click here for a technical explanation of our climate research process.