The following 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets may cause readers emotional discomfort. This is because the fossil fuel targets and deadlines below contradict the commonly held illusions about what our current fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines should be.
This article lays bare the global fossil fuel reduction target and deadline deceptions being forwarded by wealthy corporate or national vested interests. The commonly promoted 2050, 2040, 2035, 2032, and 2030 global fossil fuel targets and deadlines currently provided by governments, trusted authorities like the IPCC, (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and most environmental groups are dangerous to our livable futures.
In the article below, you will find links to the documentation on why the heavily promoted 2050, 2040, 2035, 2032, and 2030 global fossil fuel targets and deadlines are freeways to failure, gross underestimations, and a fast track to mass extinction within our lifetimes. The information below will help organizations and individuals correct course by presenting the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets that we must achieve if we are to survive as a species and civilization.
This article lays out the facts behind why we have only about until 2025 to reduce global fossil fuel use sufficiently to come as close as possible to meet the 2025 global targets. If we fail, we lose effective and meaningful control of our global warming future. We will lose control of our future because of complex climate momentum factors, human inertia factors, and our passing the climate cliff (the atmospheric carbon level of 425-450 parts per million.) Once we pass the climate cliff, we will rapidly trigger the three extinction-evoking global warming tipping points.
To help you process the following difficult fossil fuel reduction news, at the end of this article we have provided a self-directed effective plan for what you individually can start to do your part to help resolve the global warming emergency while we still have the time to do so. At the end of this article, you will also find links to effective governmental actions and solutions that must be undertaken to meet the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and detailed technical notes. The technical notes will explain the calculations behind why the 2025 targets are the correct targets for where we are now.
Before reading any more of this fossil fuel reduction targets document, we strongly recommend that you read this most important page on our website about the four extinction evoking global warming tipping points. These tipping points will be crossed quickly if we fail to get close to meeting the global reduction targets described below and this will create unthinkable global warming consequences in your near future.
(And finally, if you do not understand how our fossil fuel emissions go into our atmosphere to create our current global warming emergency, please click here for a set of simple illustrations.)
When it comes to what our fossil fuel emission reduction targets should be, what you have been told by governments, the media and most of the world's largest environmental groups is dead wrong! Fortunately, we now have one remaining last chance until 2025 to get it right.
We were notified about the coming global warming extinction dangers by our scientists over 35 years ago and did little to nothing. Having done little to nothing we now have to make shocking changes.
In order to prepare you for these shocking last chance fossil fuel reduction targets that must be made to save humanity from unimaginable suffering, death, it is important to know how poorly our previous fossil fuel reduction actions have fared. The following target information is essential because before one can choose the correct course of action to get to the desired target destination one first has to know exactly where one is starting from.
What has been hidden from you:
1. We have increased fossil fuel use more this century than in the last two decades of the 20th century.
2. More than half of all fossil fuel emissions released into the atmosphere during the previous 25 years is more than was released in all of recorded history before 1990.
3. We have had over 20 international conferences on fossil fuel reduction. We had international treaties since at least 1993 pledging we would reduce worldwide global warming. We are still about 67% higher in carbon emissions than we were in the early 1990s. (Atmospheric carbon emissions is one of the best ways to measure future global warming.)
4. In 2018 carbon emissions increased another dramatic 2.7% and they are projected to rise once again in 2019. (Below is a 70 plus year graph that shows the rising carbon (CO2,) levels in the atmosphere (in parts per million [ppm]) from burning fossil fuels.
This graph will help you visualize that global warming is not just going bad; it is getting exponentially worse. This worsening is occurring at the same time we are being told by our governments and the media we are doing better at reducing carbon emissions.
Worse yet, exponential increases in carbon emissions can also mean exponential increases in future global warming consequences.)
Yes, intentionally or through ignorance, our governments, the media, and most of the world's environmental groups have not been telling us the REAL facts about our very REAL lack of any meaningful progress in reducing the rate of fossil fuel use, much less the complete absence of any substantive reductions across the world in reducing atmospheric carbon.
While exploring the REAL fossil fuel reductions that must be made to save our future, please keep in mind our past horrific fossil fuel reduction failures.
(If you do not believe we are telling you irrefutable facts above about our dismal failure in reducing global warming over the last 35 years, click here to view a short video by climate Professor Kevin Anderson made during a recent presentation to the Oxford University Climate Society. This video also backs up the critical and shocking last chance, global fossil fuel reduction targets, which will be described below.)
To prepare you for the problematic global fossil fuel reduction targets you are about to read, it is vital to have a bit summary context concerning our past actions:
a. We have ignored 35 years of global warming catastrophe and extinction warnings by our best climate scientists. This ignoring was mostly because the fossil fuel industry and it lobbyists owned politicians and suppressed this information in the media and public dialog. And,
b. The fossil fuel cuts we did make over the previous 35 years were grossly inadequate to the required cuts we should have made. This log-term inaction has further worsened the emergency in which we now find ourselves.
c. Most governments and environmental organizations are now using some variant of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC,) global fossil fuel reduction targets. Their most current target and deadline is that there needs to be a 40% reduction in total global fossil fuel use by 2030 and then the world needs to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. As you will discover in the details and documentation links below, the IPCC's newest target and deadline is still far too little, far too late for us to have a livable future!
Our fossil fuel cutting inaction over the last 35 years has had a dire cost. Had we begun making the required fossil fuel cuts 35 years ago the required reductions now would be more gradual, manageable and far less painful. Unfortunately, we have thoroughly squandered our only opportunity for gradual global fossil fuel use cuts because of these last 35 years of inaction.
You are now prepared to read some harsh facts on the real fossil fuel cuts we need to make. These cuts are our last chance to save ourselves, the world's animal species and the other biological species from mass extinction within our lifetimes.
Our last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets
The following are the global fossil fuel reduction targets we now must reach. There were created using new global fossil fuel reduction estimates calculated by climate professor Kevin Anderson. Professor Anderson's calculations were further modified to compensate for other serious errors and underestimation present in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2030 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
The following are the absolute minimum total global fossil fuel reductions that must occur to prevent the strong probability of humanity going extinct not sometime after 2100, but within the next 30-50 years.
a. All industrially developed nations must reduce their total fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025 and then continue reducing fossil fuel use to net-zero carbon emissions by 2035. Net carbon zero emissions in this solution means that no additional fossil fuel emissions are going into the atmosphere that are not also simultaneously being removed from the atmosphere by natural means. (Only about 20 countries produce 70% or more of the world's carbon emissions.)
Think of developed nations like most members of the G 20 group; Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, and India. (See technical note one near the end of this page for why China and India had to be included in the list of developed countries.)
b. All developing nations must maintain their total fossil fuel emission levels as they were at the beginning of 2019 and not allow them to go any higher. Then by 2045, all developing nations must also be at net-zero carbon emissions. This allowance for developing nations to stay at the level they are now and gradually reduce down to net-zero carbon emissions by 2045 is part of an essential justice and equity equation.
The developed nations created their wealth by producing the majority of all carbon emissions in the atmosphere today. The developed nations have caused almost all of our current global warming extinction emergency. (See technical note two near the end of this page for more about justice and equity allowances.)
Please especially note that our above global fossil fuel reduction targets are not the same as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC,) global fossil fuel reduction targets. This discrepancy is because the current fossil fuel reduction targets presented by the United Nations and used by governments all over the world are also dead wrong!
Those calculations have been politically manipulated to allow fossil fuel producing countries and companies to maintain their sources of income. Those calculations also have been regularly and significantly underestimated.
Some of the calculations have been "cooked" to allow for "post-2050 atmospheric carbon reduction compensations," for a projected and currently non-proven carbon removal technology. Even the IPCC says this projected new carbon capture technology will not exist, be able to be scaled-up adequately or ready until maybe sometime after 2050. (The calculations Job One uses (above) are based on current conditions as well as the correct mathematics and physics from legitimate and unafraid climate scientists like Professor Kevin Anderson.)
To read about the politicizing of the science and math in the United Nations calculations as well as their underestimation and tipping point errors, click here.
To learn about the cooked calculations for a 2050 carbon capture technology which does not exist in a usable form and which, allows the uninformed to believe that we are safe and secure, click here.)
For the technical details and compensatory calculations for how the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets were arrived at, including explanations for the errors found in the other 2050, 2040. 2035 and IPCC 2030 global fossil fuel reduction targets. see the Important Technical Details section near the bottom of this page
Your annual personal, business and national fossil fuel reduction targets
The above total targets break down into annual amounts for every person, every business, and every government in the developed world. Each year they must reduce their total fossil fuel use by about 25% or more per year until 2025. These annual reductions will allow us to reach the most critical 2025 overall 75% global fossil fuel reduction target.
Once we have reached that 2025 target successfully, we must then further reduce fossil fuel use at least another 10% per year over the following ten years and before 2035.
If you are in a developing nation, you cannot increase your annual fossil fuel use at all! You will need to begin reducing your fossil fuel use on the average by around 6% per year for the next 26 years to hit your critical net zero emissions target by 2045.
(If you don't believe the above developed and developing nations targets are the real fossil fuel reduction targets needed to survive what you read above, click here to view a short video by climate Professor Kevin Anderson. It is a video of a recent presentation to the Oxford University Climate Society.)
What is essential to know is that these shockingly large amounts of required fossil fuel reductions by 2025 for developed nations are critical! The massive 2025 reduction amounts are in part because our past and "popular" current false reduction strategies have resulted in grossly inadequate levels of fossil fuel reductions.
At this point, you are probably angry that we have been continually deceived about our global warming reduction progress. We have also been misled about the REAL annual fossil fuel reduction targets that we should have started making beginning over 35 years ago.
Think about all of the above fossil fuel reduction targets to be met by 2025 and 2035 for developed nations and 2045 for developing nations as the necessary hitting of the emergency brake on a train that is just about to go out of control in a real emergency. If we do not hit the emergency brake by hitting the 2025 targets, our emergency will become an extinction catastrophe!
What's most important to remember about achieving and not achieving the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets
a. We have wasted 35 years of warnings by our best climate scientists, and we are nearly out of time left to control our global warming futures.
b. If we fail to hit our 2025 targets, most of us will suffer and die or endure unthinkable economic, political, and social chaos within our lifetimes. This massive catastrophe will be due to the accelerating 20 worst consequences of global warming as well as our crossing three global warming's mass extinction-evoking tipping points. (These things will be described further below.)
c. We will unfortunately not see the results of any of our successful global warming reduction efforts which we might achieve for about 20 -30 years. Invisible climate momentum factors will delay seeing current results for decades.
d. If we fail to hit the 2025 targets, we will need to shift the world's focus and resources to emergency preparations, adaptation, and migration strategies for the coming and unavoidable mass extinction consequences within the next 30-50 years.
e. If we fail to reach or come close to the 2025 reduction targets, we are not just facing mass extinction we are also facing total extinction! This is because we will cross the carbon 600 ppm level where we will also enter the beginning phases of run-away global warming! (Run-away global warming equals eventual total extinction.)
Why can't we just set new global fossil fuel reduction targets if we fail?
Many of you may not think the last chance 2025 targets are possible. You may also mistakenly believe that if we fail, we can still set new global targets for after 2025. Unfortunately, setting new targets after 2025 is even less likely to work.
If we fail to hit our extremely challenging 2025 targets, any new annual global fossil fuel reduction targets for the following years will have to be increased by even more than the already severe 2025 targets. Consequently, these new targets will be even less likely to be achieved in the years following 2025 than the original 2025 targets were.
For a moment, imagine we have failed to hit the original 2025 targets. We now have to set even steeper fossil fuel reductions in the years following 2025.
Reaching these new even more stringent fossil fuel reduction targets would crash the world economy even faster. They would also kill more people faster due to mass starvation. (This starvation is because as fossil fuel use is dramatically cut to global agriculture, global food production will also drop substantially.)
Additionally, the question needs to be asked. Will our already weak politicians likely to propose even more economic loss or deaths due to starvation if their first attempt failed?
If we have missed our last practical chance to control our global warming future (by reaching the 2025 targets,) trying desperately to hit new even more severe global warming reduction targets will increase the "game over" probability as well as crossing the three mass extinction-evoking tipping points (described immediately below.)
All of the above also strongly supports the painful reality that we must act decisively now. This is because acting decisively to meet the 2025 targets will, in truth, be our last practical chance to control the global warming future of humanity.
There really are many other compelling reasons we call the 2025 targets our last chance targets as you will soon discover in the next sections. (Also see the technical details and compensatory calculations concerning how the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets were arrived at in the Important Technical Details section near the bottom of this page
Essential questions to ask about your personal, businesses' and nation's progress on the 2025 global fossil fuel targets
If you are in a developed country, here are some crucial questions to ask yourself:
How are you doing on reducing your total personal fossil fuel use this year by 25%?
How is the business that you are working at doing in reducing its total annual fossil fuel use this year by 25%?
How is your nation doing in reducing its total annual fossil fuel use by its 25% target fort his year?
It is critical to keep in mind that hitting the 2025 targets is tantamount for avoiding the likelihood of entering the extinction process. Consequently, the greatest emphasis must be made to reach this first target level.
Reaching your annual targets is important because, for every year any individual, business or nation does not hit their targets, it causes their fossil fuel reduction targets for the following years to be further increased to make up for all differences!
If you, your business or your nation is not making its targets, please do not despair or do not beat yourself up. We have no time to waste for those kinds of activities.
Here's what you can do if you're not hitting your annual targets:
1. see what is needed to get our governments to execute all of the critical 2025 radical fossil fuel reducing actions (found prioritized in Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
2. see what is needed to get the world's wealthiest individuals and corporations to recognize this is a no-win game for them as well. Once they see that no amount of money will save them in the long run, they will use their vastly more powerful influence to get the world's politicians to get the 2025 targets achieved. (Please see Part 4 of the Job One Plan.)
3. understand what is needed to get ourselves and our businesses to execute the annual 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets listed above and as described in Part 2 of our Job One Plan.
If you are in a developing country, here are some crucial questions to ask yourself:
How are you doing on reducing your personal total annual fossil fuel use for this year to meet your target of no new fossil fuel use?
How is the business that you are working at doing in reducing its total annual fossil fuel use for this year to meet their targets?
How is your nation doing in reducing its total annual fossil fuel use by its target for this year?
It is critical to keep in mind that hitting your annual and 2025 reduction targets is equivalent to avoiding entering a mass human, animal, and biological species extinction event process. Please also keep in mind that for every year any individual, business, or nation does not hit their targets, it causes their targets for the following years to be increased accordingly.
If you, your business or your nation is not making its targets, do not despair and do not beat yourself up. We have no time to waste for those kinds of activities.
If you're not hitting your personal or business annual targets, here's what you can get started on immediately:
1. see what is needed to get our governments to execute all of the critical 2025 radical fossil fuel reducing actions (found prioritized in Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
2. see what is needed to get the world's wealthiest individuals and corporations to recognize this is a no-win game for them as well. No amount of money will save them in the long run.
Once they realize this, they will use their vastly more powerful influence to get the world's politicians to get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets achieved on time. (Please see Part 4 of the Job One Plan.)
3. understand what is needed to get ourselves and our businesses to execute the annual fossil fuel reduction targets listed above and as described in Part 2 of our Job One Plan.
Why there will be massive suffering and death for 70-90% of humanity within the next 30-50 years if we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets?
The four critical levels of global warming tipping points we will cross in the near future
Below please find the four most important global warming tipping point levels within our complex climate system, which will involve interacting climate, biological and human systems, and subsystems. Those four tipping point levels are:
1. The climate cliff tipping point level. (This tipping point initiates the beginning of a runaway process for triggering more and more global warming tipping points at faster and faster rates.)
2. The extinction-critical runaway global ice melting tipping point level. (ALL ice and ALL glaciers on Earth will enter a near-unstoppable process of a complete meltdown! (Sea levels could rise up to 10 feet over decades and up to 220 feet over several centuries.)
3. The extinction-accelerating runaway massive methane release tipping point level. (Massive amounts of methane gas start being released from ocean coastal shelves and the world's permafrost.) And,
4. The runaway rising global warming temperature level. (This final global warming tipping point level leads to a total extinction event. This is because of our average global temperatures rising so high that Earth's atmosphere is ripped off into space and everything dies.)
Before you read the following conclusion, we ask you to also first read this most important global warming tipping point page on our website. As you read about these four major global warming tipping points our current extreme extinction threat will become vividly true, real and understandable to you. Click here to learn more about what each tipping point in the illustration below is, how crossing global warming tipping points function, how they accelerate global warming temperature rise, how they accelerate global warming consequences, and how they cause sudden and complete climate, biological and human system collapses as well as how they make any possible recovery from crossing tipping points much slower, harder and more expensive.
(Read this especially if you are discouraged or, you don't believe we can meet the last-chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. This section and much of the rest of this page will not make as much sense if you have not read this critical most important four global warming tipping points page.)
As the research and analysis verification links in this document reveal, there no longer such a thing as a program of gradual fossil fuel reduction being a viable alternative any longer. We squandered that option with our last 35 years of procrastination, denial, and delay in effectively reducing our global fossil fuel use.
Because of our lost 35 years of denial and delay, what we need to do now will be radical, painful, and costly. That is now the price of our future if, we want to have any future at all.
Don't be fooled. This extinction emergency is not far off in the future.
This emergency is now and not a "get to it later" problem for you or your children later in their life. It directly or indirectly will adversely affect you and your children within your lifetimes!
By 2025 we will know if we are locked into the path of likely mass extinction and possibly total extinction because we are going to cross four critical extinction-evoking global warming tipping points. We will see if we will be able to salvage any livable future for humanity for the second half of this 21st century and for the centuries to follow.
What this implies is that we also will know if we are at the practical end of history and everything humanity has ever cared about.
We do not often engage in conversations about the extinction of our species, but now is the time to do so with your friends and associates. Failure to hit the 2025 reduction targets means mass human, animal, and biological extinction within our lifetimes! That is what we mean when we say we are in a "global warming extinction emergency."
Right now this self-made suicidal tragedy is already affecting hundreds of millions of people around the world. Over the next 10 to 20+ years; it's going to get far worse even faster, affecting billions.
Most people do realize that mass human, animal, and biological extinction within their lifetime is unthinkably horrible. What they do not realize is that massive global warming catastrophes will start occurring more frequently long before the above 3 tipping point extinction process runs its full course. Within the next decade or two, we will begin seeing a significant acceleration of worldwide global warming disasters and catastrophes.
These disasters will continue to increase in frequency, severity, and scale in an oscillating pattern. This pattern is where the oscillation of these new weather extremes becomes worse and worse and then occurs at closer and closer intervals. Long before this global warming-fueled mass extinction reaches its peak 30-50 years from now, our economic, political, and social systems will experience widespread chaos and collapse.
If you can imagine hell on Earth, you would be adequately seeing our quickly developing future.
The good news...
What you can do to ensure mass and total extinction does not happen or at the least, survive longer if we lose this battle
To survive mass human extinction within our lifetimes, we must all stay calm and carry on. We must also get the world's politicians to act now because we currently are not at all safe or secure!
In the priority order given below, we must come together to take the following four life-critical action steps to save and salvage what we can before it is too late:
1. if you can directly influence any politicians, get them to understand this extinction emergency and execute the 2025 global fossil fuel reducing actions (these governmental actions are found prioritized in Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
2. if you have any direct or indirect connections to the world's elites (i.e. ultra-wealthy corporations, individuals, celebrities, philanthropies, etc.,) get these elites to recognize this emergency is a no-win game for them as well. Help them realize that no amount of money, power, or fame will save them in the long run.
Once they understand this, many of them will use their own powerful direct influence on the world's politicians to get them to get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets achieved on time. (Please see Part 4 of the Job One Plan for help with this step.)
3. while doing 1 and 2 above, as individuals or as businesses work toward meeting the 2025 critical fossil fuel reduction targets as described in the fossil fuel reduction actions found in Part 2 of our Job One Plan.
4. While doing 1, 2, and 3 above, get busy on your personal emergency backup Plan B. Starting Plan B is critical because the probability that we will meet the very challenging 2025 targets is extremely low. (In addition to what you have read above, see this page for many reasons it will be beyond challenging to meet the 2025 targets.)
And finally, the big remaining question is... are you going to do your urgently needed part to help make these 2025 last chance fossil fuel reductions happen?
Your and your children's immediate future depends upon the choices you make and what to do in this life and death emergency.
Ultimately, we will either succeed together, or we will die together!
The most important things to remember from this page!
1. There is only one real global warming deadline that is necessary to burn into your mind.
If we miss the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets, much of humanity as well as many animal and biological species will go extinct within our lifetimes! If we do not get very close to the 2025 targets, humanity will enter the beginning phase of runaway global warming and the runaway greenhouse effect and we will have a total extinction event.
2. If we widely miss the 2025 targets, we go over the climate cliff, no existing new technology can scale up fast enough to save us! The 2025 targets really are our last chance! Our ability to maintain effective or meaningful control over this extinction emergency ends just after we enter go over the climate cliff and breach the carbon 425-450 ppm range in 2025. If we do not come very close to the 2025 targets, our last chance, and final window opportunity to effectively control our own destiny regarding preventing even worse extinction level tipping points from being crossed literally closes!
3. If we go over the climate cliff, the worst consequences of global warming will not only increase in severity, frequency, and scale, they will also come at us faster and faster. Eventually, everything we depend upon in an organized society for our survival becomes so unstable that organized society can no longer exist. At that not too distant point, we then starve to death, or die in resource scarcity collapses or conflicts or, in "migrate or die" chaos, or in national conflicts.
4. It is the pure physics and mathematics of global warming temperature dynamics that will take over after we go over the climate cliff and cross the three extinction evoking global warming tipping points to drive our temperatures ever higher past 3, 4 and 5 degrees Celsius.
5. While you personally can do some things on your own to reduce global warming, there is nothing you can do individually (or even in large groups,) to effectively hit the 2025 targets. It is now a last chance governmental responsibility to save us. The 2025 targets can only be achieved by governments working together and immediately issuing new global warming reduction laws and then verifying and enforcing that they are followed to hit the 2025 targets. To get our governments in action, we need to get our politicians in action first! Part 4 of the Job One plan will help you do this!
6. Not making the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets is the ultimate no-win game because we are in truth facing a total extinction event and the completion of the Sixth Great Extinction Event of human history. What must be realized is that we must do only and exactly what is necessary to meet the 2025 targets. Getting lost on actions, not forwarding the 2025 targets critical path is at best distractions and at worst, measures that will amount to "too little too late" to save us.
7. It is critically important to understand that no compensatory calculations for the effects of any global warming tipping points being crossed were ever included in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC,) calculations for precisely how much we have to reduce our global fossil fuel use to save ourselves from extinction. This is important because the IPCC's global fossil fuel reduction calculations are currently being used by all of the member governments of the United Nations (about 190 countries,) for setting their own internal national fossil fuel reduction programs. This horrific failure to include crossing any global warming tipping points in our current global and national fossil fuel reduction calculations is also true for the world's most recent 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. This omission of including proper calculations for crossing global warming tipping points as the world continues to warm is the recipe for mutually assured destruction. Yes, this failure to include allowance calculations for crossed tipping points shockingly also means that the national fossil fuel reduction programs of every member of the United Nations using the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement targets is also based on incomplete and inaccurate calculations.
8. The largest illustration on this page (above,) the Global Warming and the Climageddon Scenario Cascading Meltdown reflects the unfolding natural progression of ever-worsening consequences, tipping points and human system processes that will accelerate as global warming continues. These consequences, tipping points, and human systems will also synergetically and cumulatively collide with each other and adversely interact. It is these ever-increasing interactions among and between worsening global warming consequences, tipping points and human systems that will make each of these things worse faster and faster.
This illustration reflects the core of the final processes that will lead to our mass extinction as well as into global economic, political and social chaos. Its three levels of global warming interactions (consequences, tipping points, and human systems,) highlight the continuous onslaught of emergencies, crises, and catastrophes that we are already experiencing and which foretell our eventual extinction if we fail to reach the 2025 targets.
9. Most of you that have understood the previous facts (that do not fall into a natural and defensive denial,) will appropriately feel shocked, sad, angry or even betrayed. The most logical and best thing to do to deal with those often overwhelming feelings is to work for "the best" while you prepare for "the worst," just in case we fail. What this means is that you will need to focus as much as your energy and resources on just two main action strategies:
a. Get busy with emergency preparations and adaptations for you, your family and/or your business for many of the now unavoidable consequences that will be arriving soon no matter what we do and in case we fail to hit the 2025 targets. (Click here to begin this process.) and,
b. Get busy on getting the 2025 reduction targets met by getting our governments enacting and enforcing the laws needed to reach the 2025 targets. (Click here to learn what you need to know to get started on this.)
These two action-based strategies will minimize the natural feelings of being shocked, sad, angry or feeling completely betrayed by our current world leaders until you can get additional emotional support or assistance from other outside sources or from working through the Kubler Ross model on your own.
10. The REAL crisis, challenge and ultimate global warming question for our collective and individual future is..."How do we prevent a global warming-caused total extinction event from occurring, while we are simultaneously dealing with an unavoidable mass extinction event, which is already occurring?"
11. There are only a few things you can always be sure of in this global warming extinction emergency. In spite of all of the challenges and probable adverse outcomes. The few things that you can always be sure of relating to creating our best possible global warming outcomes is that, if we can come at least very close to reaching the 2025 targets:
a. The faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use, the more people that will survive to carry on humanity.
b. The faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use, the less future generations will suffer from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming catastrophes. And,
Also never forget, we still have time left to:
1. make or get very close to the required 2025 radical fossil fuel reductions to prevent total extinction,
2. complete the necessary emergency preparations, and to
3. adapt to soon-arriving global warming consequences that we can no longer change.
(Many key areas of this document were derived from the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown document. It breaks down the complex global warming processes at the next level to help prove to you that the technical details above are accurate. If you have not yet read about the six phases of the Climageddon extinction scenario, which will take you level-by-level through the consequence and timetable details as humanity moves ever closer to extinction, we strongly recommend doing do so now by clicking here.)
In a nutshell:
This article has laid out the facts behind why we have only about until 2025 to reduce global fossil fuel use sufficiently to come as close as possible to meet the 2025 global targets. If we fail, we lose effective and meaningful control of our global warming future. We will lose control of our future because of complex climate momentum factors, human inertia factors, and our passing the climate cliff (the atmospheric carbon level of 425-450 parts per million.) Once we pass the climate cliff, we will rapidly trigger the three extinction-evoking global warming tipping points.
Why are only a few of the world's thousands of environmental groups promoting the real 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines?
The most correct answer is that most of these environmental groups have been cleverly and invisibly deceived into accepting the incorrect analysis and interpretations of current global warming research by hidden vested interests and compromised bureaucratic "authorities."
Click here to read about how our current grossly inadequate global fossil fuel reduction targets are being presented to the general public. These targets have been twisted and promoted by hidden vested interests who have literally "cooked the books" and the proper calculations needed for honest and accurate targets.
Click here to read about other key systemic global warming consequences and timetable deceptions.
After reading the above two links, you now know why so many groups are promoting the wrong global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines. Please do everything you can to get the information on this page to these groups and the world's politicians!
A quick and simple way you can immediately help get the very challenging 2025 targets achieved
Only a handful of ecological organizations are promoting the real 2025 targets. If you have a connection to any of the following ecological groups, Greenpeace, World Wildlife Fund, 350.org, MoveOn.org the Sierra Club (or any other major environmental organizations around the world,) please help get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets information to them. Directly ask them to adjust their educational and promotional materials accordingly.
We are facing enormous challenges trying to get the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets achieved with so little time left. The last thing we need is the leaders in environmental education, providing out-of-date, incorrect, or fossil fuel lobbyists twisted global fossil fuel reduction targets and wrong deadlines!
Job One for Humanity needs your personal help in reaching every major environmental group on the planet with the correct 2025 targets. At least this way, everyone in the environmental movement is aiming at the correct destination on the correct deadlines.
If we can't make this happen with educational organizations fully dedicated to saving the environment, humanity, the animals, and the other biological species, how will we ever get our politicians on to achieving the correct 2025 global reduction targets? (When you do this educational action be sure to be a respectful disruptor described in this link.)
If You are Feeling Sad, Angry or Anxious About Global Warming or hitting the 2025 targets? Here is What to do Next.
Click this link and start feeling better.
Important technical details on how the 2025 targets were created
Here are the technical facts, footnotes, and disclosures which affect the validity of the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets described at the top of this document. The following information is for fellow researchers and techies who want more detail behind the calculations and factors involved in calculating the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets listed at the top of the page.
This information is also useful in that it shows you what is missing or wrong with the other 2050, 2040, 2035 and 2030 global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines now being promoted by governments, the United Nations and most environmental groups.
Here are qualifying and essential facts and factors relevant to calculating the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets:
1. To make the above 2025 reduction calculations work to save humanity from extinction, both China and India can no longer be considered developing nations. They must be required to make the same fossil fuel reduction targets as all other developed nations. This inclusion is necessary at this time because they are producing far too much of the world's total carbon emissions. China is already the world's largest fossil fuel polluter. There will be no way to meet the already severe fossil fuel reduction targets if they are not placed into the developed nation's category.
2. Like almost all other 2050-2040 2035 and 2030 fossil fuel reduction targets, the above 2025 global fossil fuel reduction amounts and calculations also do not include any of the false and grossly misleading atmospheric carbon capture technology reduction calculations and "compensations" currently being included in our current international fossil fuel reduction calculations and the fossil fuel reduction treaties. These future carbon capture compensations are being used by "trusted authorities" like the IPCC, (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ) almost all governments and environmental groups.
The IPCC's newest global fossil fuel reduction target and deadline is "a global reduction in all fossil fuel use by 40% by 2030." This 40% level is far too little, far too late to save use from grave danger in the future.
The reasons the IPCC targets and 2030 deadline being far too little far too late in part is as follows:
a. The current IPCC carbon capture calculations reverse backward into today's IPCC's calculations extensive compensatory fossil fuel use allowances for what our current fossil fuel reductions should be. They base these allowances for burning more fossil fuel today because of the unproven future atmospheric carbon removal success of negative emission technologies (NETs.)
Yes that does not make sense. Quite unbelievably, the IPPC relies upon that NETs may be put into successful operation at the proper scale sometime after 2050 for the carbon allowances they using today in today's reduction targets. (NETs are also sometimes called BECCS (bio-energy with carbon capture and storage.)
This also means that these miraculous and nonexistent atmospheric carbon removal technologies will not be deployed in time to meet the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
The IPCC's current mathematical reliance upon these "will be working after 2050 magical "carbon sucking unicorns" when setting today's reduction targets, allows the IPCC and the government's of the world to delude the general public as to the real nature of the worldwide warming extinction emergency. It also enables the IPCC to foist bogus and grossly inadequate current carbon reduction targets upon unsuspecting populations.
This also allows unsuspecting national populations to believe they are safe when, in fact, they are in grave peril.
These false IPCC calculations have also fooled most of the world's largest environmental groups. They have also relied on the IPCC's estimates for the current global fossil fuel reduction calculations. These false IPCC calculations are allowing the fossil fuel industries and fossil fuel producing nations to continue with "business as usual" while the rest of the society believes there is no or little urgency for reaching the 2025 global targets listed above.
The carbon capture technologies (NETs) which are currently projected by the IPCC to eventually keep (or return) the average global temperature to near 2°C do so by removing about 100 gigatons of carbon from the atmosphere. With no scientific testing at scale, the IPCC also believes that these magical carbon sucking unicorns operating sometime after 2050 can remove 100 gigatons of carbon from the atmosphere without any disastrous or even worse side effects.
To help you get an idea of just how big our atmospheric carbon capture problem is, consider that one gigatonne or metric gigaton (unit of mass) is equal to 1,000,000,000 metric tons. One hundred gigatons would equal 100 billion metric tons or 100,000,000,000 metric tons.
Carbon capture is an important and complex issue that should not be relevant to setting the correct and honest current global fossil fuel reduction targets to save humanity and the future. Please click here for the whole crazy story about how these magical carbon sucking unicorns are being used in critical fossil fuel reduction calculations by the IPCC, the world's governments and most of the world's environmental organizations to set (or promote,) the current global fossil fuel reduction calculations.
b. Unfortunately, our governments also have been giving global warming predictions and fossil fuel reduction calculations that include a 25-40% underestimation factor. They have also been not including any calculations for any of the 11 key tipping points being crossed.
When you add these two factors back into the prediction calculations to correct them, it becomes obvious that if we miss our 2025 reduction targets, we will be facing our worst higher temperature nightmares far faster than we are even remotely prepared. To read about the politicizing of the science and math in the United Nations calculations as well as their underestimation and tipping point exclusion errors, click here.
3. The above 2025 reduction calculations also do not include any extra reduction percentage or calculations for the massive spikes in carbon and methane emissions. These spikes will occur when we closely approach or cross new permafrost and tundra melting global warming tipping points.
To be safe, the 2025 percentages for fossil fuel emissions reduction should be significantly higher by another 10-15% to allow for approaching or crossing more global warming tipping points. Not allowing any fossil fuel reduction compensatory calculations for any tipping point crossing issues amounts to planning for perfection. Planning for perfection is always planning to fail. Click here to learn more about the tipping points that will suddenly release massive additional amounts of carbon and methane into the atmosphere.
4. The 2025 reduction calculations above are based on current and projected carbon CO2 levels in the atmosphere provided by the United Nations. They do not show the total levels of all greenhouse gases now in our atmosphere as tracked by CO2e. (CO2e measures ALL major greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.)
Because the calculations above also do not include the necessary reductions for methane and the other greenhouse gases as tracked by CO2e, the reduction calculations above probably should also be increased by another 2 to 4%. This additional 2 to 4% reduction would in part allow for the factor that methane is 86 times more potent for increasing global warming than carbon as Co2 in our atmosphere. As shocking as it sounds, methane releases into the atmosphere from fracking or natural gas distribution is seldom measured or regulated by countries around the world, including the US.
5. The above 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets also do not include any of the fossil fuel emissions currently produced by all import-export activities between nations. These extra emissions are significant because of ocean cargo ships, trains, planes and other methods used for international import-export transport produce a lot all global fossil fuel emissions. For some reason which defies logic, those scientists charged by the governments to measure and regulate global fossil fuel emissions also have carved out a political exemption for measuring or regulating this particular category of emissions, which could be up to 2 % of the world's total fossil fuel emissions.
6. There are no effective international agreements on climate justice regarding the exact differences in required fossil fuel reductions between developed and developing nations. All that exists today which considers equity, and existing global warming treaty responsibilities is the usually ignored and unenforceable UNFCCC treaty.
This is the treaty most of the world signed and ratified. It's operating principles began with "Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities." The problem here is there is that no treaty agreement specifies the proportionate remedial responsibilities based on who did the damage. There is also no treaty on the required differences in fossil fuel reductions that each developed or developing country must make.
To make matters worse, the US and many other nations are currently not abiding by existing fossil fuel reduction treaties. Due to the nature of this emergency, to resolve current inadequacies and the inadequacies of past global warming treaties and agreements, it was necessary to come up with at least something valid, workable and just reduction calculation that could be put into action immediately. This is our plan where developing nations were given far less initial fossil fuel reduction requirements and a longer time to reach net-zero carbon emissions. In short, the 2025 reductions mentioned above are REAL and necessary, and they can work to avert the extinction threat.
7. Having carbon neutrality, or a net-zero carbon footprint means achieving net-zero carbon emissions by balancing any measured amounts of carbon dioxide C02 released into the atmosphere with an equivalent measured quantity of carbon dioxide taken from the atmosphere and being captured for long-term storage (see carbon sequestration). In the Job One Plan, this carbon capture and sequestration(CCS) should happen almost exclusively through our already-existing natural biological, chemical, and physical processes. (See this definition of global warming for illustrations on how the climate's heat controlling systems and processes handle carbon capture and sequestration among other things).
Net-zero carbon emissions by 2035 or sooner for developed nations and 2045 or sooner for developing nations is a challenging subgoal to achieve. It will also require that strong financial disincentives be placed on fossil fuel use as well as keeping almost all of existing fossil fuels in the ground and never burned (coal, oil, natural gas, tar sands, etc.) While doing this, we will also have to be heavily incentivizing natural carbon sequestration methods, as discussed in Part 3 of the Job One Plan.
8. Once we get to net-zero carbon emissions by 2035 for the developed nations, and 2045 for the developing nations we still aren't safe. There is much left to get done to restore our climate's long term natural atmospheric carbon balance back down at around carbon 270-300 ppm (its preindustrial level.)
9. The Job One Plan or any other legitimate plans for achieving net-zero carbon emissions also do not endorse Cap and Trade methods of arriving at net zero carbon and carbon-neutrality through offset schemes. Current Cap and Trade methods are too often a disguise for "business as usual." They will not get us to the critical fossil fuel reduction levels we need in the extremely limited time left to keep us from crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point. In Job One's targeted version of getting to carbon-neutrality, we use a method called Fee and Dividend (discussed in part three of our Job One Plan.) In our plan, you will not be able to buy Cap and Trade carbon credits to make up the difference and achieve net-zero carbon emissions through buying offsets because that inevitably promotes more fossil fuel burning.
10. Net-zero carbon emission calculations from fossil fuel use by 2035 in developed and developing countries could allow for a minimal amount of fossil fuel use for agriculture and medical uses.
11. The required fossil fuel reduction calculations discussed above are based on attempting to keep the average global temperature from rising two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. It is calculated that if we cross that 2°C maximum level of average global temperature increase above the preindustrial level, somehow we will be able to control the extremely slippery slope which will quickly lead us to 3, 4 and 5° Celsius increases in average global temperature.
There is additional strong evidence beyond what has been discussed above that; even if we are successful in achieving the 2025 targets, the average global temperature will still rise to 3°C and likely beyond with many unavoidable and horrendous consequences. This 3°C and beyond means that we have a real problem as far as making the only the above-required fossil fuel reductions.
We have to make the required 2025 fossil fuel reductions no matter what! It is also highly likely that even those steep fossil fuel reductions are still not enough to avoid unthinkable suffering or the wide-scale reduction of the human population by as much as 50%.
On the other side of this painful quandary is an even scarier fact. If we do not make the 2025 targets, it is very likely that we will lose nearly everybody in as little as 30 to 50 years. In 30-50 years, as much as 70 to 90% of humanity (if not all,) will suffer and die.
What other choice do we have other than to make the required 2025 fossil fuel reductions while at the same time knowing we're probably going to have to make even steeper fossil fuel reductions as more research becomes available?
What we do know is this. No matter what, and in spite of all of the challenges and adverse outcomes that are possible, the single constant truth for the best possible global warming outcome is that the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use:
a. the more people we will survive to carry on our civilization, and
b. that future generations will suffer less from the ever-increasing sequence of global warming consequences (as described fully in what is called the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and countdown.)
12. Here are the links to the two videos by climate Prof. Kevin Anderson discussing the REAL fossil fuel reduction calculations needed. Click here for the first professor Anderson video. Click Here for the second professor Anderson video.
13. The above 2025 critical fossil fuel reduction targets are still significantly lower than they should be. The 2025 global fossil fuel reduction amounts described at the top of the page are the minimum essential starting reduction amounts. Based on numerous uncalculated factors and conditions described in 1-12 above, they should be significantly higher.
Based on the best current science from climate Professors like Kevin Anderson, the 2025 targets and deadlines above at least, are far closer to what we must do, and we have to start somewhere. These new working fossil fuel targets and timelines are based on both good science and climate justice and must now replace our current ridiculously impotent governmental and IPCC (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) global warming reduction targets and deadlines.
If we really wanted to be completely safe and if we took into consideration all of the other calculation mistakes and inclusion or exclusion factors that were not considered, we probably should be targeting an 80 to 85% fossil fuel reductions in all developed nations by 2025 (or earlier.) This would also require a modification to net-zero carbon in all developed nations by around 2032 or earlier. Higher fossil fuel reduction adjustments also would need to be made for the targets in developing nations that would be aligned with that which was re-targeted for developed nations.
14. Unfortunately, because of our lack of progress over the last 35 years, the ongoing global denial that global warming is real, and the many reasons described on this 2025 challenges page, it is highly probable that we will not be successful in achieving the 2025 targets. We will most likely pass the carbon 600 ppm final extinction level tipping point. (Please see this 2025 challenges page to understand why this failure to reach the 2025 targets is our most probable future.)
In every situation and in spite of all of the obstacles, the only way we save any part of a liveable future is to cut fossil fuel use to meet or get very close to the 2025 targets. These 2025 reductions will slow things down enough so that we have time to prepare, migrate, and adapt as well as possible.
No matter what, we must do whatever we can and make the best of a horrible escalating emergency that may already be out of our control for decades.
It's time to get started on the effective Job One for Humanity Plan to try to meet the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Start it today!
Now that you understand how bad things are, please help us get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction goals met by signing this global warming extinction emergency petition now. (It only takes a few minutes.)
Additional technical information to further prove to you that mass human extinction and economic, political and social chaos from the accelerating consequences of global warming will become reality within our lifetimes:
Why we have failed to fix global warming for 35 years. (How fossil producing nations and fossil fuel industry lobbyists have "cooked the books" making us believe we were safe when we were not.)
Why carbon sucking NETs won't save us in time.
If you still don't believe that once we go over the climate cliff at carbon 425 ppm we are basically locked into continually increasing temperatures for as much as the next 30-50 years, click here.
For those who may still believe that we can miss the last chance 2025 targets and still be safe, our organization has described what will happen in far greater detail than above in what we call, the 6 phase Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown. Click here to read the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown document.)
Written by the research staff at Joboneforhumanity.org