"You cannot be called an alarmist if there really is something to be alarmed about." Unknown
Welcome to a not-so-happy summary of the current global warming extinction emergency which we all now face within our lifetimes. While reading all of these materials, keep calm and keep in mind that if we act wisely, together and with urgency, there is still a remaining window of opportunity (up until 2025.) in which we can slow down the global warming extinction emergency enough, so that far more of us will be able to survive it.
Why 35 years of climate change and global warming and fossil fuel reduction failure?
In spite of almost 35 years of warnings by credible scientists and the work of the environmental movement, plus a preponderance of collaborating scientific evidence, as well as numerous conferences and previous treaties, the carbon dioxide and methane pollution of our atmosphere, has not stopped, slowed, or even leveled off. On the contrary, it is getting worse faster than ever before!
As you can see, we are not doing very well.
Leading climate scientists like James Hansen, who originally warned us about the global warming danger 35 years ago, say we would remain safe if carbon in the atmosphere did not go over 350 parts per million (ppm). As of August of 2020 we are at about carbon 414 ppm and increasing at about 3 ppm per year in a near exponential progression.
When you combine the heating effect of carbon with the other greenhouse gases, it is called the CO2e ppm rating. CO2e, or carbon dioxide equivalent. CO2e is a standard unit for measuring all greenhouse gases in terms of the amount of warming they create compared to CO2.carbon footprints.
When you include atmospheric methane and the other greenhouse gas pollutants, our current adjusted CO2e rating has already risen to the shocking level of 430 ppmv of CO2e! Worse yet, we will be at carbon 450 ppm in 10 years or less when we include atmospheric methane in our calculations.
To put this in a time-lapse perspective, from 1850 to about 1950, the increase in carbon pollution was steady at about 1 ppm per year. From 1950 to 2000, the increase rose to 2 ppm per year, and now in its current exponential curve, it is at about 3 ppm per year and rising rapidly toward 3-4 ppm per year. If carbon continues to rise in this exponential, nonlinear way, virtually unchecked by our ineffective previous actions, the increase could easily reach a level of 4-5 ppm per year by 2025.
As you can see below, carbon has been rising since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in England.
Image via Stephen Stoft at zfacts.com
According to James Hansen, a carbon 450 ppm level would eventually correspond and develop into an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century and the end of human civilization as we’ve come to know it. Based on carbon ppm levels already in the system and reaching the 450 mark, this also means at least another 2.7° Celsius (4.9° Fahrenheit) global temperature increase beyond where we are now is the eventual and inescapable future reality.
This 2.7° Celsius would also be the most realistic minimal temperature increase to project as part of any future planning over the next 10-30 years. Bear in mind that even this scenario applies only if everything goes perfectly and we cross no additional global warming tipping points.
Unfortunately, it is already certain that because of our ongoing denial and delay in addressing escalating global warming, atmospheric carbon in parts per million will most likely continue to rapidly rise beyond the carbon 450-550 ppm total, which translates to a 3° to 4° plus Celsius increase (5.4° to 7.2°+ Fahrenheit) up to as much as a 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) increase in average global temperature. (A 4° Celsius increase [7.2° Fahrenheit] in average global temperature would become “Hell on earth” as Mark Lynas, author of Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, has stated. Additionally, anything at or above a 4°Celcius increase in average global temperature would be incompatible with an organized global society and would be beyond adaptation!)
Hansen’s projections for “ending human civilization as we know it” is not the same as mass human extinction (most of humanity dying by mid-century,) as we approach carbon 500 ppm and carbon 600 ppm which turn into the 5° or 6° Celsius (10.8° to about 12° Fahrenheit) temperature levels. In Hansen’s 6° Celsius rise coming from eventually crossing the carbon 450 ppm mark, what would be considered normal, stable, comfortable, or predictable daily life in developed nations will become severely impaired and dysfunctional, to say the least.
In undeveloped nations, there will be a high and consistent level of chaos and breakdown that will rapidly render most of these nations politically and economically unsustainable. As it is already occurring, the chaos of existing less-developed nations destabilized by factors such as war and the global warming extinction emergency will then affect the more developed and stable nations far beyond just the current massive migrations of climagees escaping the suffering and heat.
In spite of all the media PR, 21 United Nations climate conferences, endless warnings from credible scientists over the last 30 + years, and national reduction pledges and treaties, things are worsening in a nearly exponential progression (2,4,8,16, etc.). There is no way to deny we are not only losing the escalating global warming battle, and we are losing it at a progressively faster rate!
Instead of enacting the needed changes when they were far easier, more gradual, and far less costly, we must now take radical, painful, and costly tough medicine if we are going to save the future. The changes that would have been merely inconvenient 35 years ago will now become nearly unbearable.
We are not receiving adequate accurate facts about how bad global warming is now, or how bad it will REALLY become. The heavily lobbied global media decline to alarm us to the real dangers in order to allow the fossil fuel industry to continue business as usual. Click here to see how bad we are actually doing in reducing fossil fuel use globally.
Current atmospheric fossil fuel burning-related carbon ppm values are now at 414. This is higher than at any other time in the last 1 million years (possibly higher than at any time in the last 25 million years). This new carbon pollution record represents an increase of 85 carbon ppm in the 55 years since David Keeling began making his revolutionary atmospheric carbon pollution measurements at Mauna Loa. (See graphs in this and previous chapters).
Carbon pollution accumulating in the atmosphere has been increasing even faster over the last few decades. It is now nearly certain that if we refuse to take immediate, effective measures to resolve global warming, future increases will happen at even faster rates.
Global average temperatures have the potential to rise far faster than what we normally experience. For example, about 9600 BC, in the Boreal climatic phase, global temperatures rose 7° C (12.6° F) in less than a decade, pushing the ice sheets into rapid collapse and sending sea levels soaring.
Our 35-year inability to control the climate change and global warming emergency is due in part to:
The lack of national and international verifiable and enforceable international laws that would make continued large-scale carbon and methane pollution of the atmosphere a strongly punished activity or crime.
The physical time lags in developing and deploying the infrastructure needed for the new green energy technologies. As we are progressing now, it will likely take another 100 plus years.
But, if everyone on the planet and every government simultaneously agreed to scale up green energy generation immediately and there were no budgetary or resource restrictions in completing this life-critical project, it would still take many many decades to put that infrastructure in place.
If escalating global warming and its consequent climate destabilization proceed to the levels currently being predicted, it will eventually cost the global society hundreds of trillions of dollars in crisis recovery, as well as soaring insurance rates, massive real estate losses and depreciation, and massive coastal and other infrastructure losses, in addition to the vast amount of human suffering and death.
Right now, most nations are struggling with debt and their economies are in trouble with anemic annual growth. How will many of these nations, particularly the weakest ones, remain politically or financially viable, stable, or even continue to exist if another 5% or more of their total GDP (the Stern Review) is drained off each year into the continually escalating costs of global warming-caused climate destabilization? Current estimates from a book called Climate Shock project all global warming consequences will cost 10 percent and maybe far more of the world’s total GDP by 2100.
The global warming extinction emergency is already here! Its superstorms, flooding, seasonal disruptions, wildfires, heat waves, migrating insect infestations, and droughts will continue increasing in magnitude and frequency. According to a recent analysis from scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), "[t]he worst-case projections for global warming may be the most likely.”
The next battle now lies in keeping global warming from rising to an extinction-level event where human-caused carbon dioxide and methane levels in the atmosphere push the global temperature increases to 4°-6° Celsius (7.2°-10.8° Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels and beyond. How we can survive and fix this is found in the new Job One for Humanity Plan found on this website.
The following Illustration is From the new Climageddon book:
It is not just a climate change and global warming emergency. It really is a climate change and global warming extinction emergency!
Now that you read the global warming emergency details provided above, it is critical to first read this critical new article which fully explains:
1. why we are already in an undeclared state of a global warming extinction emergency and,
2. what we must now do.
Once you have read the above article, please click here for the good news of what you can do about this climate change and global warming extinction emergency!
Next, please click here first to read about why mass die-offs and a climageddon-type global warming mass extinction event killing most of humanity by mid-century are a near-certainty within the next 30-50 years, but only if we miss the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Click here for the full timeline and consequence details for this climageddon extinction scenario and countdown.
The nine most important facts to know about global warming and climate change based on today's most current science
The nine facts below are the facts that most other environmental groups are afraid to tell you. Once you understand them, you will be better prepared for what is happening now and what is coming.
We are not asking you to accept these disruptive facts blindly. We have provided links to their scientific documentation and analysis (found on this page or website.)
At the end of this article, you will find a link to a comprehensive four-part plan for what you can do to help manage global warming.
To counterbalance these disruptive facts, in this article, you will also find a link to the many surprising benefits that you will experience as we work toward resolving this great challenge, opportunity, and evolutionary adventure.
Because psychologists say it is better to get the bad news out of the way before the good news, here are the nine essential facts you should know about today's climate change and global warming emergency:
Fact 1: Our governments were not prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic. They are even more unprepared for the accelerating global warming emergency. They have ignored 35 years of warnings by our best climate scientists, just like they ignored the warnings of the world's best pandemic scientists.
Fact 2: Our governments have grossly under-estimated:
a. how bad global warming is going to get,
b. how soon global warming will worsen, and
c. the actual global warming fossil fuel reduction targets critically needed to save us from mass extinction.
The world's governments have grossly under-estimated these three critical elements of global warming information because the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations deliberately falsified the required global fossil fuel reduction calculations. These falsified calculations then caused all subsequent global warming consequences and timetable predictions also to be false.
These calculations are vitally important because the IPCC is the world's leading research authority on global warming and all governments rely upon them for their global warming consequence and timetable predictions.Because of this IPCC falsification of the calculations and targets, the world now believes they will be safe for many decades. In truth, the world is facing an accelerating extinction emergency that must be managed before the end of 2025 or, we go over the last chance global warming climate cliff.
Because of many decades of systemic deception, consequence under-estimation, and denial, many of global warming's worst consequences are now unavoidable!
Click here to discover how the IPCC deliberately falsified essential global fossil fuel reduction calculations and targets. (It is an interesting, easy read. But, it takes a bit to explain how the IPCC pulled it off without the world calling foul play.)
Click here to see the numerous other global fossil fuel reduction target manipulations and politicization problems coming from the IPCC.
Click here to learn about the climate cliff, the first extinction-accelerating global warming tipping point.
Fact 3: We have now reached a global warming acceleration level where only a worldwide government-driven mass mobilization similar in scope to the mass mobilization that occurred before World War II can save us from going over the climate cliff to mass extinction. It is far too late for individual actions to achieve the 2025 global fossil fuel reductions needed to save us from accelerating global warming-driven catastrophe and mass extinction.
(Part 3 of our Job One for Humanity Plan will show you how our governments can complete the required mass mobilization and the required levels of fossil fuel reductions to save us.)
Fact 4: If we keep going the way we are now, our governments are less than five years away (2025) from going over the climate cliff and missing our last practical chance to reduce fossil fuel use sufficiently to meet the required safe target levels. Only by achieving these 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets do we maintain realistic control of our global warming futures and prevent the mass extinction of much of humanity by mid-century.
The 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets will require most of us to reduce our total global fossil fuel use by a shocking 75%. This 75% global fossil fuel reduction means explicitly that all developed countries (including China and India) must reduce all auto, train, shipping, airline, industrial, agricultural, and home uses of all fossil fuels by 75% to meet these 2025 targets!
Most undeveloped countries have considerably smaller 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets. These smaller targets are due to undeveloped countries having far lower historical fossil fuel use levels and because of what is fair in climate justice.
(Click here to see the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction target details. If we fail to come close to these targets, it will take centuries to the planet to recover. )
Fact 5: Missing this 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets means we go over the climate cliff, and we accelerate the immutable laws of climate physics. Going over this climate cliff will trigger crossing more global warming tipping points at faster and faster rates. Failing to meet the 2025 targets also means we will not prevent the most catastrophic global warming consequences from occurring.
For example, suppose we fail to meet the 2025 targets, that will produce accelerating temperatures, drought, rain bombs, flooding, and global warming's other forms of extreme weather. In that case, we will not be able to prevent the widespread collapse of global agriculture. If we allow global agriculture's widespread failure, the human population will quickly starve and collapse to a fraction of today's population.
But this is not even the worse consequence of missing the 2025 targets. If we miss these 2025 targets, an even worse consequence called runaway global warming will eventually render our beautiful Planet Earth uninhabitable! (Runaway global warming means that global warming will run away from us and continue to get warmer and warmer due to crossed tipping points and because of other climate factors.)
(Click here to read about how and when these four critical extinction-accelerating tipping points will unfold over the next few decades. It will also explain the global warming climate cliff and what happens once we cross it.)
Fact 6: Despite horrible odds for successfully reaching the critical 2025 targets, it is still technically possible to reach them as long as we immediately execute a worldwide government-driven mass mobilization. If our governments gets us close to the 2025 targets, we can at least slow down (but not stop) the coming mass extinction event that will kill off much of humanity by mid-century.
This mass extinction event will also trigger a collapse of most nations' economies and destroy much of their functioning civilization. Because of these two unthinkable global consequences, we must do everything possible to meet the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and slow down the accelerating global warming mass extinction process.
Fact 7: Only by getting close to the global 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets and successfully managing most of these other 11 non-global warming global problems will we give ourselves the needed time and resources to prevent a far worse total extinction of humanity occurring from 2070 to 2100.
(If you think that either the mass extinction or total extinction global warming threats are overstated, please read this page first, then this page, and then please see this recent scientific summary by respected climate scientists.)
Fact 8: We are horribly behind where we need to be in reducing global fossil fuel use to get even close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. We also are failing miserably to manage most of these other 11 critical global challenges that are amplifying, accelerating, and interacting with many global warming consequences to our severe detriment.
Consequently, now is the time for wise individuals and businesses to create their own Plan B emergency backup plans. It is no longer reasonable to rely solely upon your limited-resourced governments to save you, your family, or your business from this rapidly accelerating emergency. (Plan B is simply an emergency preparation, adaptation, and survival plan that might even include migration or relocation to safer areas from global warming and other global threats.)
With your Plan B in place, you can keep working to help slow down global warming to achieve the best remaining global warming outcomes after you have prepared your family and business for the soon-arriving worst consequences.
By having a personalized Plan B ready, you and your loved ones will be able to survive and thrive far longer and more comfortably. And, if we get through this extinction emergency, you will have also preserved your future opportunity to create a better life from the lessons learned.
(Click here to see the Job One for Humanity Plan B. Plan B includes saving and salvaging as much of our global civilization as we can for as long as we can so, it will be there for us in the post-collapse future where we will need it.)
(Click here to see the many best possible remaining outcomes if our governments mass mobilize and act in time.)
Fact 9: Depending on your location, many of you should still have enough time to prepare for and adapt to the myriad of now unavoidable global warming consequences. Additionally, it is wholly appropriate to feel fear at this dangerous juncture because of the known consequences of accelerating global warming and the worsening of these other 11 global problems.
While fear or panic generally paralyzes, there are positive evolutionary reasons for why the emotion of fear exists. Positive fear exists when there are REAL threats to your survival. Positive fear mobilizes the observant and wise to act before it is too late!
To support the positive use of fear on our real and soon-arriving global warming consequences, here are the most critical global warming deadlines to remember:
a. The 5-year deadline: (From now until the end of 2025.) At this time, it is appropriate to admit it is all but impossible for us to reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets! But, we still do have enough time left to slow down (but not avoid,) a mid-century mass extinction event for much of humanity. Although we can no longer avoid mass extinction, we still can maintain some level of control of our global warming future, and most importantly, we can still prevent total extinction!
To avoid total extinction, we must make radical global fossil fuel reductions immediately and still come very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. (This extinction danger also means we have to continue to educate the world about the climate cliff and tipping point deadlines of this emergency after preparing our personal survive and thrive provisions and creating eco-community cooperatives and sanctuaries. It is also essential to know that within this first 5-year period, if you are in a high-risk location, land prices in the safer global warming locations will start rising at a faster rate.)
b. The 5-10-year deadline: (This assumes we will miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.) From 2020 to 2027, global warming consequences will steadily worsen in a rising but linear progression. More people will migrate. Millions more will die because of climate-related catastrophes.
If you have prepared, adapted, and are in a global warming safer location before 2027 and have a good Plan B in place, depending upon your location, relative stability and security for family and business are probable until 2030 to 2040. (See this Plan B page, which discusses how to prepare the safest and least safe places to ride out the global warming extinction emergency.)
c. The 10-15 year deadline: (This assumes we will miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.) After 2030-2035 many other climate, human, ecological, political, and economic tipping points will be crossed due to global warming, and most of these 11 other critical global challenges will worsen. The stability and security of even the safest and best prepared global warming safer locations will lessen and become increasingly challenging. Those individuals in supportive cooperatives or eco-communities should be significantly safer and better adapted than those who are not.
d. The 15-25 year deadline: (This assumes we will miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.) Beginning around 2030, the frequency, severity, and size of 20 worst global warming consequences will move from a rising linear progression into an exponential progression. Stability and security for even the safest and best prepared, safer global warming locations, cooperatives, and eco-communities will become far more difficult and dangerous.
e. The 25-30-year deadline: (This assumes we will miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.) By mid-century, mass extinction for much of humanity is unavoidable. From 2030-2050 will be the riskiest period to survive for much to most of society. Generally, things will be better in safer global warming locations, cooperatives, and eco-communities. Even there, survival is far from guaranteed without the highest preparation, adaptation, and cooperation levels.
f. The 50-year deadline: (This assumes we will miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.) We will face the worst consequences of runaway global warming, and we will be heading toward the beginning of the runaway greenhouse gas effect, which ripped the atmosphere off Venus. Because of this escalating runaway global warming reality, humanity will face a total extinction event (what we describe as the Climageddon Scenario) beginning as soon as 2070-2100.
Many people believe that geoengineering, carbon capture, or some other new miracle technology will ride in like a knight on a white horse at the last minute to save humanity from the natural consequences of its previous climate decisions, actions, inactions, and mistakes.
(Click here to read about why this fairy tale carbon capture technology is not going to happen or will be "too little too late" to save us.)
(Click here to read how challenging it will be to reach the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets.)
1. The IPCC has deceived us and our governments about the real global fossil fuel reduction targets and how bad and fast global warming catastrophe and mass extinction is coming.
2. Our governments are failing magnificently in achieving the real 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. This will push the world over to the climate cliff and bring about the mass extinction of much of humanity and widespread social collapse by mid-century.
3. If we do not get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, we will also be facing total extinction in the second half of the 21st century. We will face total extinction because we will not be able to stop ourselves from crossing the four most critical extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points.
4. The battle to prevent the extinction of much of humanity is over. The fight to prevent total extinction has begun. It is now the last chance for our governments to finally mass mobilize and act together with the correct actions to prevent global social collapse and humanity's total extinction.
5. While we try to get our governments to mass mobilize and come close to the 2025 targets, it IS also time for individuals and businesses to execute a Plan B for this emergency. Plan B consists of preparing for and adapting to the soon-arriving climate mega-catastrophes, widespread social collapse and the inevitable mass extinction of much of humanity by mid-century. (To see precisely how widespread social collapse will occur due to the accelerating global warming emergency please read this page.)
6. The comprehensive Job One Plan offers honest reality-based hope for the future. It covers:
a. the real 2025 fossil fuel targets,
b. the correct actions our governments need to do slow down mass extinction and prevent total extinction, and
c. what we as individuals, businesses, and governments must do to have the right emergency backup Plan B in place to ride out what is coming.
Unfortunately, to prevent the required painful global fossil fuel reductions to save us from total extinction as well as public panic, our governments and politicians will continue to deny the above facts. At this time too many governments and environmental groups have been compromised by the money and influence of fossil fuel producing nations, fossil fuel-related industries, and their lobbyists.
To keep the public calm and ignorant of the imminent extinction dangers described above, it is very likely our governments will continue to issue false or misleading global warming reduction progress reports. Our governments will also likely seek to distract us with false hope solutions like the existing and illusionary carbon capture and geoengineering schemes.
For humanity to survive and thrive, we must go where the science and the facts lead us and face the cold and bitter reality of our current extinction emergency.
We must continue to speak truth to power no matter how uncomfortable those facts might be.
Please share these critical nine global warming facts with everyone you can and, please sign the:
And, if you read nothing else from the many links above, read this page!
Please also see our most current and updated short position statement on global warming today by clicking here.
The essential positive perspective on the above disruptive global warming and climate change news
Despite the many types of challenging global warming consequences and past fossil fuel reduction mistakes that we now face, we can still learn from their feedback, and we can adapt and evolve to make life as good and as happy as is possible. No matter how severe the coming global warming consequences might become, if we wisely play the remaining cards that we have been dealt, we can still achieve the best remaining possible outcomes.
We can make a significant difference in reducing global fossil fuel use to stabilize and save some parts of humanity's future. We can execute a comprehensive fossil fuel reduction and survival plan like the Job One for Humanity Plan.
We can still maintain the perseverance needed to succeed in this monumental task by regularly reviewing the many benefits which will unfold for us as we work successfully on this project together. (Click here to check those benefits. This is the most read page on our website.)
We can persevere through this temporary time of emergency. To do so, we need to remember that our greatest challenges are also the seeds of our greatest opportunities. We can never forget that we are engaged in nothing less than the most critical and meaningful evolutionary opportunity, challenge, and adventure in human history!
It is our last opportunity to slow down the accelerating mass human extinction threat by getting close to these 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
Only by reaching these targets will we be able to remove the even worse threat of total extinction.
Get started today on the Job One for Humanity Survive and Thrive plan today. Help save and salvage as much of humanity and our beautiful civilization as is possible.
If you are either curious, or you need some extra motivation to get into action, we then strongly recommend also reading this popular page. It describes the above major consequences unfolding in a detailed step-by-step process as well as the complete scope and breadth of the extinction emergency that we are all now facing on many consequence fronts.
A quick summary of the above
There is just one immediate fact to know and focus upon concerning our climate change and global warming future. If we get this one right, most of the other problems will take care of themselves.
If our world governments do not immediately execute a mass mobilization of the necessary resources to reduce global fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025, most of humanity will be dead by mid-century.
That is all you really need to remember and focus on. If you do not believe what we have said above is accurate, click here to see precisely how this global warming nightmare will unfold.
There is also more information about the escalating global warming emergency in the new Climageddon book. In this new book, you will find out why anything at or above a 4°Celcius increase in average global temperature would be incompatible with an organized global society and would be beyond our ability to adapt to it!
Get your copy now! Your book purchase helps support the social benefit mission of Job One for Humanity to end global warming. Click here for more detailed information about this new.
(Special Update of 11.1.2020: It is now a virtual mathematical and political impossibility to reach (or even come close) to our last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. The main consequence of this new reality is that all we can do now is slow down the mass extinction process, but not avoid it.
Although we can no longer prevent much of humanity from going extinct by mid-century, we still have some time left to prevent total extinction. Because of this harsh new reality, we have appropriately modified and updated the Job One for Humanity global warming action plan. Click here to see this updated plan.
Click here to see all of the reasons why a mass extinction event by mid-century is mathematically, economically, and politically unavoidable.)