(Special Note: You are about to read some very alarming facts about our current global warming emergency [aka the climate emergency, the Holocene extinction, the sixth mass extinction event, the climate crisis, the climate emergency, run-away global warming and the global warming extinction emergency.] We trust you will make up your own mind about what is valid, critical, and what to do after thinking carefully about the many disruptive reasons, facts, and documentation that we are presenting below.

We believe you will also decide that not only it is highly probable that global warming is already irreversible, but that it is also highly probable that humanity will experience a mass extinction event within 3-5 decades and may possibly experience a global warming-related total extinction event within as little as 5-7 decades.  

The following article describes the many near-impossible 2025 global fossil fuel reduction target challenges and dilemmas that mostly must be resolved by 2025 to save us from both mass and total extinction within our lifetimes. This article also lays out the processes behind many of the complex climate momentum factors and human and technological or social inertia factors as well as the other many near-unsolvable global warming reduction dilemmas.

If we do not solve these challenges and dilemmas, they will most certainly cause humanity to pass over the deadly climate cliff (the atmospheric carbon level of 425-450 parts per million [ppm].) Once we pass over this climate cliff level, we, unfortunately rapidly trigger the three other extinction-evoking global warming tipping points.

This article assumes that you have already read what the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets that we must meet to a safe future, found here. This challenging article would make little sense without knowing what those 2025 targets are. 

This article also assumes you understand the basics of what global warming is or how greenhouse gasses in our atmosphere such as carbon and methane from burning fossil fuels cause it. [If you do not clearly understand the basic global warming causes and process, please click here for a simple illustration and explanation.]) 

And finally, we have also made an important update of how the COVID-19 pandemic affects global warming reduction success in red further down this article and, at the end of the article, there is a plan for what to do in light of all of this disheartening news.

Introduction

"You cannot be called an alarmist if there really is something to be alarmed about." Unknown

What you are about to read, defines many aspects of an escalating global warming emergency that we all now face. Most of you have seen the news about global warming-aggravated weather, like the record-breaking hurricanes, bomb cyclones, the horrible wildfires in California, the western U.S., and in Europe. Many of you have heard about the "worst in centuries" droughts and dust storms, or the super cold then warm winters, or the super storms in India or, the rain bombs worldwide where weeks or months worth of rain falls in a few hours or a few days. 

Some of you already know that something bad is happening to the normal stability of our seasons and this pattern is getting worse. Some of you also know that 97% of scientific research done by qualified climate scientists clearly indicates that until we reverse our suicidal fossil fuel burning habits, the global warming consequences mentioned above will continue to significantly and regularly increase in frequency, severity, and scale and, these kinds of events will continue breaking all previous climate records. 

Other than the fact that we have wasted 35 years of warnings by our best scientists, there is now a new shocking new reality concerning our global warming future that you will hear discussed only by a few courageous climate scientists, our organization, and one or two other global warming educational organizations. The number of individuals and educational organizations that will be speaking out about our soon-arriving global warming extinction reality (also described below,) will steadily grow as we continue to see larger, more frequent, and more severe climate catastrophes.

Unfortunately, the global warming facts in this document are also widely suppressed in the major media. This media gatekeeping protects the ongoing profiting on global fossil fuel use by the media's fossil fuel industry major advertising partners and owners.

Additionally, those suppressing this document's information are afraid of how you might react to this information. They are worried that if you truly understood what is on this page, you might panic, or you will angrily demand that our politicians immediately implement the 2025 radical cuts to our global fossil fuel use. (The 2025 cuts are critical to what is needed to save us in time from unconscionable global warming consequences.) 

These correct last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets would virtually mean the end of the fossil fuel business, which is currently one-third of the world's GDP (gross domestic product.) Fossil fuel is also the primary source of government income for many fossil fuel exporting countries. 

The fossil fuel industry is never willingly going to allow its 29 trillion dollar-a-year business to collapse to a tiny fraction of its current self without a well-funded life and death struggle! If you think that is an exaggeration, think about how hard and long the minuscule by comparison cigarette industry has fought to maintain its death-dealing profits.

To help you deal with all of this bad news and help you manage these coming consequences, a practical and effective plan called the Job One for Humanity Plan is provided at the end of this document.

It will show you how:

1. to resolve many of the challenges this document presents, and how

2. to prepare for and to adapt to the highly disruptive new facts of the new global warming reality described below.

After reading about the huge global warming challenges we all now face (below,) please do not get discouraged. In the new Job One for Humanity Plan linked at the bottom of this document, you will find that there is still plenty that you (and we) can still do to make things better and, it is always you who decides what actions you can or will take to protect yourself and help us resolve this escalating emergency.

A little history first... 

In the new book Climageddon published by this organization about 2 years ago, it was stated that if we were very lucky, global warming might not become uncontrollable (irreversible, aka runaway global warming, extinction-level global warming) for as much as the next 30-50+ years. But that could happen only if we immediately mass mobilized the radical, costly and correct 2025 global fossil fuel use reductions and, we did not cross the last chance climate cliff tipping point (described further below.)

Almost 3 years after Climageddon's publication, we now know that the required 2025 fossil fuel reductions are not happening anywhere even close to what is needed and, because fossil fuel carbon emissions are going up not down, there is a very high probability that the necessary fossil fuel reductions may not happen until about another 30-50 years from now.

The numerous reasons why hitting the necessary 2025 reduction targets will be so difficult will be described in the many reasons listed below. In these materials below, you will also discover that individually almost all of the reasons listed below will require decades to resolve. Collectively, resolving the most important reasons below will most likely require at least 50 or more years to resolve and probably far longer than that.

Once you grasp how the many reasons for likely failure fit together and interact with and upon each other, you too will see how challenging it will be to cut our fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 targets.

The reasons we will not most probably reach the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets 

The reasons below are not listed in the order of their importance in inhibiting society from resolving the global warming extinction emergency. We will let you be the judge as to which of these reasons are the more important barriers to success.

Each of the many reasons below also has additional links leading you to the full documentation proving that a particular statement is itself true. To accurately present the reasons why we may not be able to achieve the 2025 reduction targets and why global warming may already be out of control, it is essential to first explain:

a. how to best measure global warming reduction status and progress,

b. the correct fossil fuel targets we need to meet to avoid mass extinction within our lifetimes, and

c. then clearly define what we mean by "out of global warming control." 

Let's get started. Below you see a graph showing the amount of carbon in our atmosphere.

The amount of carbon in our atmosphere in parts per million (ppm) is one of the best, if not the single most reliable predictor of future global warming temperatures as either increases or decreases. More carbon in the atmosphere equals higher temperatures and worse consequences and vice versa. 

Look at the steeply increasing angle of the C02 graph. This shows us that we are not controlling escalating global warming! 

When we say that we have probably already lost meaningful control over escalating global warming, we mean that:

1. although we may make further progress in reducing global fossil fuel use, those reductions are grossly inadequate compared to the 2025 global cuts now required. Consequently, we will not be able to save ourselves from the worst consequences of global warming or prevent mass extinction event within our lifetimes.

2. we also will be unable to radically reduce our average annual increase in atmospheric carbon each year over the next 30-50 years. (Our average annual increase is currently at about three carbon ppm.) Why this is important will be explained in the further below.) 

3. we are entirely unable to get our total atmospheric carbon ppm levels (now at about carbon 414 ppm back down to anywhere close to our previously safe level for humans life of carbon 270-350 ppm. Carbon 270-350 ppm is our past human-safe level where our current climate could once again re-stabilize, but only after hundreds or thousands of years. 

Unless we are successful in achieving the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets and we can resolve the many challenges to success discussed below to reaching those targets, it can easily be said that our global warming future might already be out of our meaningful control.

Only if we achieve the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, do we have any practical hope of not going over the carbon 425-450 ppm climate cliff and then quickly triggering the two global warming extinction-evoking tipping points (described below.)

While it may be theoretically possible to still reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets2025, we also will have to overcome and resolve the many huge challenges listed below in time to get at least very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets to be successful. 

Here are more details and another way of describing why the above 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets are so important to achieve. If we do not engage in anything less than the greatest government-driven mass mobilization in human history of all necessary resources directed toward radically cutting fossil fuel use to hit the critical 2025 global reduction targets, we will without a doubt go over what is called our "last chance" carbon climate cliff and tipping point. This last chance tipping point will occur at or shortly after we cross the carbon 425-450 parts per million (ppm) range. (See the blue Atmospheric CO2 carbon graph above to see how close we are to that point already.)

It is called our last chance climate cliff because it truly is our last window of opportunity to keep from going over the carbon 425 to 450 climate cliff and tipping point. Once we go over this climate cliff and tipping point, our average global temperature will inevitably rise above 2°C far faster than ever before in geologic time. This very fast temperature rise will also create a powerful momentum that will then push our average global temperature even higher even faster.

This momentum is composed of many factors and processes including crossing additional global warming tipping points, which, unfortunately, we will also begin to cross at an even faster pace once we go over the climate cliff.  

(To learn more about how crossing global warming tipping points [like those in the illustration above,] function, accelerate global warming temperature rise, consequences, causes sudden and complete climate, biological and human system collapses as well as make recovery from their consequences much slower, harder and more expensive, click here.)

If we continue only to the carbon 425 ppm climate cliff tipping point level, within about 6 years (or less,) we can expect to lock in an eventual increase in average global temperature of about 2 -2.7° Celsius (4° - 4.9° Fahrenheit) from preindustrial levels. At just this 2°-2.7° Celsius increased average global temperature level, millions more will starve and millions of additional people from all over the world will eventually be forced to either migrate or die. This occurs in part because of:

a. global warming systemic as well as atmospheric carbon accumulation momentum factors, 

b. serious human systems inertia and other problem factors, (Described in part on this page.)

c. more and other crossed tipping points.

Once we go over the climate cliff and hit the 2.2°-2.7° Celsius average global temperature increase level, the total heat-producing momentum of all of the previous carbon that we have ever put into the atmosphere (particularly all that additional carbon we have added over the last 50 years,) along with the other factors previously mentioned (in a, b and c above,) will once again quickly and inevitably push our global average global temperature even higher!

This also means that for all intents and purposes, once we go over the climate cliff at about carbon 425 ppm and climate and human system momentum and inertia factors we are basically locked into continually increasing temperatures for as much as the next 30-50 years! 

If we cross the carbon 425 carbon ppm climate cliff and tipping point, we will reach the key threshold and carbon and temperature transition level where we will be unable to stop ourselves from continuing uncontrollably and far too quickly to 3°, 4°, 5°, and 6° Celsius average global temperature increases (5.4°, 7.2°, 9°, and 10.8° Fahrenheit.) Once we cross the 2°C carbon 425 ppm climate cliff the even higher temperature levels of 3°, 4°, 5°, and possibly even 6° Celsius will be all but locked in due to:

1. our continuing to add more fossil fuel burning carbon to the atmosphere each and every additional year (at about 3 ppm per year,)

2. this ever-increasing heat-producing carbon and other greenhouse gas momentum, and

3. our being unable to stop ourselves from crossing many more global warming tipping points and triggering other positive feedback loops and points of no return within the many systems and subsystems of the global climate due to human system inertias and other problems.

Because of the preceding, we have no other rational alternative other than to prevent ever crossing into this highly dangerous transitional carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, range, and tipping point. At our current rate of carbon and other greenhouse gas atmospheric pollution, entering this range will begin, unfortunately, sometime around 2025. 

There is something we can be certain of in this emergency. No matter what and in spite of all of the challenges and bad outcomes that are possible, the single constant truth for the best possible global warming outcome for humanity in this emergency is that, the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use:

a. the more people we will survive to carry on humanity, life and our beautiful civilization, and

b. future generations will suffer less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences.

In the illustration below you see a red vertical "Must not pass, last chance battle line and range of carbon 425 to 450 ppm." As you can see, going over the carbon 425 climate cliff leads us to a very steep and slippery downward slope to our own rapid extinction. 

This illustration above also lists at what carbon ppm levels the six distinct phases of the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown occur (CS Phase 1-6.) After you read the rest of the document, we strongly recommend that you also review the detailed year-by-year global warming consequence timetables found in what we call the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown. 

Crossing the climate cliff of carbon 425 ppm unfailingly sets us up to rapidly cross with the next near-extinction atmospheric carbon tipping point level of carbon 500 ppm where the average global temperature will eventually increase to 4°C. If we miss the 2025 targets, carbon 500 ppm is predicted to happen in as soon as 20-25 years from now about 2038-2042. At a 4°C temperature increase above preindustrial levels, all ice on earth will melt, chaos will ensue and today's organized society can no longer exist or function!

Once we cross the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction tipping point, it is near-certain that we will also soon cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction tipping point not too long after that. (Much more will be said about the carbon 500 and 600 ppm extinction tipping point processes and their consequences further down this page.)

When we cross this carbon 425-450 ppm "last chance" climate cliff, in addition to leading us rapidly into mass extinction (70-90% of humanity,) in as little as the next 30 to 50 years, the consequences we will experience will also be irreversible for centuries to thousands of years.

Unfortunately, our governments have been giving public global warming predictions that include a 25-40% underestimation factor as well as not including any calculations for any of the 11 key tipping points being crossed. When you add these factors back into the prediction calculations to correct them, it becomes obvious that we will be facing our worst nightmares of higher global temperatures far faster than we are even remotely prepared for. 

(There is much more information including what our individual, business, and national annual fossil fuel reduction targets would be, what will happen if we don't hit the above targets and the technical footnotes that will help explain why the severity of these fossil fuel reductions. We strongly suggest you go to this highly recommended global fossil fuel reduction explanation page and read all the qualifying information on the absolutely essential fossil fuel reductions sometime before you put this document away.)

Getting real about what must be done to reduce fossil fuel use radically

To grasp how painful these cuts will be, imagine that in the next six years you will have to cut your total home, auto, plane, and business activities that use fossil fuels by at least 75%. Then once you have done that, you will have to cut back again to net-zero fossil fuel use within the next ten years after that. Now try to imagine everyone else in all developed nations doing the same.

If you live in a developed country, are you doing this now? Does that seem possible that you would voluntarily change your normal life and fossil fuel use so fast? Do you see the governments of the developed nations of the world coming together in a great act of cooperation passing the laws, verification procedures, and the enforceable punishments necessary to make sure we make the 2025 deadline?

You probably came up with the same answer we did, which is it is near certain we will not make the required fossil fuel cuts in time. It is more likely that the developed world citizens who did not understand the urgency or importance of why they needed to make these painful sacrifices, would throw their politicians out of office. They would also most likely overthrow any government that tried to enforce these radical fossil fuel reductions upon their comfortable or subsistence level lifestyles and livelihoods. 

Now imagine all of the individuals, corporations, and governments in the developed nations which mostly depend upon fossil fuels seeing their livelihoods disappear by at least 75% in the next six years. How much of a fight and disinformation program would those individuals, industries, and nations put up or create to preserve their livelihoods and their futures?

It's hard to imagine what the fossil fuel industry would not be capable of doing to preserve a $28 trillion year market segment. 

When the above 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets (and other factors described in the other reasons below,) are taken collectively into consideration, the 2025 critical fossil fuel reductions while theoretically still possible, are all but impossible to achieve at this time.

Reason 2: Green energy generation will not save us in time. This is because it will take far too long to produce enough green energy generation to replace the energy produced by fossil fuel energy generation. This is critical because we only have until 2025 to hit critical global fossil fuel reductions to save us from mass extinction. Over-hyping how fast green energy generation will replace fossil fuels energy generation is a near-universal illusion held by many individuals and environmental organizations alike. For the facts on this near-universal global warming illusion, please see this Massechutes Institute of Technology (MIT) study to verify we are a long, long way (about 400 years by MIT's estimates) from replacing fossil fuels with green energy. 

Reason 3: Our governments and other authorities keep giving us incorrect global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines that will not work. Depending on where you live in the world, your politicians, governments, and even most of the world's environmental groups are giving you different and incorrect fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines. For example, many countries have set the target of becoming net-zero carbon by 2050. This wrong target issue even includes the US Democratic party. Other governments, the UN, and almost all environmental groups are promoting various levels of fossil fuel reductions and net-zero carbon by either 2050, 2040, 2035, 2032, and 2030. 

For example, the UN is still using the incorrect global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines created by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC.) The IPCC is considered the world's leading authority on global warming and what should be done about climate change. 

IPCC's most current incorrect target and deadline for global fossil fuel reduction is we need to make a 40% reduction in total global fossil fuel use by 2030 and then reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The colossal danger with the IPCC's wrong targets is, these wrong deadlines and targets are now being used to set the correctional global warming strategies for the world's governments, NGOs, and largest non-profit environmental groups.

This makes it even less likely that we will come close to reaching the 2025 legitimate targets because our governments and NGOs are aiming at the wrong target destinations and deadlines. Click here to read the science for what makes the IPCC's current 40% reduction in total global fossil fuel use by 2030 and then reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 so dangerously wrong!

The many incorrect targets and deadlines mentioned above are entirely inadequate and will not save us from extinction in time. Worse yet, when you have competing incorrect global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines forwarded by recognized authorities, it thwarts and delays humanity's ability to understand or execute the correct fossil fuel reduction targets. 

Ironically, if we cannot get the world's recognized environmental leaders to promote the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines, which at least have some reasonable chance to prevent a massive extinction event from occurring within our lifetimes, how likely is it that we will ever achieve the 2025 reductions?

In the other reasons below, you will discover additional IPCC incorrect calculations, allowances for nonexistent new technologies, and the many twisted ways that those who have been entrusted to lead us with the correct global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines are not doing so.

Until these wrong targets and deadlines are corrected or removed, there is little chance we will re-organize to focus our efforts on accomplishing the right targets and deadlines. The time left until 2025 is running out fast. Only by hitting or coming very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets will we be able to avoid a mass extinction event within the next 30-50 years.

At this point, one could easily say that any entity promoting incorrect or inadequate fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines is certainly not part of the global warming solution. Entities promoting the wrong targets and deadlines have now become a major part of the problem if we want to prevent a mass extinction event from occurring within our lifetimes.

Reason 4: The horrible agricultural side effects if we do cut fossil fuel radically to reach the 2025 levels described above. The main side effect is global agriculture will crash when we drastically reduce fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 targets. Agriculture is heavily dependent upon fossil fuels such as methane to make the essential fertilizers and other chemicals to allow mass food production to occur. 

Agriculture also depends heavily upon fossil fuels to run the equipment essential to creating and processing our mass food production and its distribution. Once we come anywhere close to the crucial levels of global fossil-fuel reductions we need to execute to save the future, highly fossil fuel-dependent global agriculture will crash. Then up to 50% of the population will die of starvation not long after that.

What this means is that if we do not make the required 2025 global fossil fuel reductions, as much as 70 to 90% of humanity will die in as little as 30 to 50 years. If we do not make the required 2025 global fossil fuel reductions, as much as 50% of humanity will die of starvation in as little as 20 to 30 years. That is a difficult choice that few politicians are even willing to consider.

Reason 5: It is highly improbable we will ever make the real needed cuts to our fossil fuel use to save ourselves because they will temporarily crash the world economy. Another primary reason it is unlikely we will make the required cuts soon enough to save ourselves is because of what is called Garrett's Global Warming Dilemma. 

Professor Garrett's research states that because of the laws of physics and mathematics, almost all of our fossil fuel-based global economy must first collapse in a necessary and steep global recession or depression. Only this will produce the required cuts in our fossil fuel use in time to save humanity. Environmental groups around the world most often ignore this well-documented climate research by Professor Garrett because it also produces a horrible dilemma for which either answer is unthinkable as well as un-sellable to members. 

Because of this dilemma, and because there is no public or political will to create a severe, but necessary global recession or depression to adequately reduce fossil fuel use, most environmental groups hide this critical research away and ignore it like dirty laundry. Because of this economic dilemma, it is hard to imagine that fossil fuels use will ever be cut to anything close to the critical levels needed. At least not until we are faced with massive global financial losses and billions dead. 

Unfortunately, by that time, the worst consequences and higher temperatures of global warming also will be irreversible for timescales far, far beyond the human lifespan.

(If you're a science person, please click here and read a summary of Prof. Garrett's alarming research on atmospheric carbon, global warming, and the necessary fossil fuel reductions we must make to save the future.)

Reason 6: The projected new length of time it will take to move away from global fossil fuel energy generation to green energy generation to replace it. It is now estimated to take about 400 years to fully scale up green energy generation to replace all fossil fuel energy generation and uses. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) just published a new article where they layout where we are currently in green energy development.

In this article, they state it will take us about 400 years to replace all fossil fuel energy generation with green energy generation. This new information means that any realistic hope we had for a fast transition (in less than 50-100+ years) to full green energy generation to replace all fossil fuel energy generation is entirely unrealistic.

Reason 7: The promised new "miracle" technologies will not save us before it is too late! Some of you may hear the news that global warming is out of our control and will think, "aren't they working on inventions it will suck the fossil fuel burning carbon particles out of the atmosphere in time to save us?" If you think that this is our easy out and easy solution to continue our fossil fuel burning "business as usual," please click here.

Here you can read why the currently nonexistent carbon capture technology is a silicon valley and techno-optimism delusion that will not save us in time. You will also learn why carbon capture technology is also a mathematical and physical near impossibility.

Today you find carbon capture technology being forwarded mostly by impatient, profit-hungry entrepreneurs, and mechanical engineers looking to make billions on the greatest catastrophe of human history.

In summary, believing that atmospheric carbon capture schemes will save us at the last minute from our ill-advised actions (instead of changing our behaviors,) is equivalent to believing in magical carbon sucking unicorns.

Reason 8: There is still no verifiable or enforceable international agreement that could execute and enforce the critical 2025 fossil fuel reduction levels needed. There is no adequate verification or enforcement of our existing international global warming reduction agreements. Our existing international agreements do not require anything even close to 2025 global fossil fuel reductions to make matters even worse! 

The required levels of global fossil-fuel reduction could occur if there was a total governmental commitment and an immediate mass mobilization by all nations to begin cutting fossil fuel to the 2025 percentages listed above. There would also need to be some form of an overarching international agency that had real verification, enforcement, and punishment rights over all nations that might violate the global warming reduction treaties or agreements. That kind of power implies some form of functional global government which is estimated to be decades away at the earliest.

Because there are no such verifiable and enforceable international reduction agreements among governments or, any current governmental mass mobilization to implement the critical reductions, it means that we will be adding carbon to the atmosphere at our current average annual rate of about three or more ppm per year for about the next 30- 50 + years. This would add at least, another 90-150 carbon ppm to our current 414 ppm total, or carbon 504 to 554 ppm. (See atmospheric carbon graph further above and imagine the steepness of the graph line as another 150 carbon ppm points is added to it over the next 50 years.)

Reason 9: The human race is significantly distracted and limited by day-to-day survival issues, current media distractions, and a fatal global warming evolutionary disability. Because of this and other factors, humanity will not collectively realize it is in an extinction emergency until it is far too late! 

Because of many distraction factors, it is not unreasonable to say that 95% of the population is so distracted by the day-to-day activities that they do not have the time or available bandwidth to process and respond to such a complex problem. It would also be fair to say 95% of people are unable to understand this emergency because of a natural evolutionary disability to understanding slow-moving threats like global warming. 

This natural inherited "disability" is our innate fight or flight protective evolutionary mechanism, which was designed over millions of years of evolution to respond mainly to immediate, highly visible threats. Global warming is a slow-moving nearly invisible threat.

Reason 10: The unstoppable and continuing increase in average global warming temperature due to increased fossil fuel use because of the increasing population. Because of the laws of physics concerning adding new atmospheric greenhouse gases like carbon, global temperature will continue to rise as we keep adding more carbon particles into the atmosphere. Adding three or more carbon ppm per year for the next 30-50 or more years (as we are doing now,) does not include adding any other annual carbon ppm amounts for the additional energy used as the human population soars from 7 to 14 billion people. That three-carbon ppm per year also does not include many more people from the developing world who will move into the middle class, demanding the same high fossil fuel comforts of the developed world. This near doubling of population, as well as the massive increase in new middle-class energy demand, could increase current fossil fuel use by another 25 to 40%.

When you look down the road 30-50 years from now and add only the additional 90-150 carbon ppm to our most current carbon 414 ppm total, it is easy to see there is no way for us to keep from crossing the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction level. (We are averaging an additional 3 ppm of carbon each year. 30 x 3 = 90 and 50 x 3 = 150. More will be disclosed below about the lasting effects of atmospheric carbon levels at or above the carbon 500 ppm level as well as at or beyond the carbon 600 ppm tipping point extinction level.) 

Reason 11: The 20-40% miscalculation of current global warming consequence timetables for many of the 20 worst global warming consequences steals the needed public urgency to act. The world's leading climate authority (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]) regularly miscalculates where we are now or where we will be on our global warming consequences and timetables by 20 to 40%. This underestimation then causes the public to underestimate our current real global warming status and condition. They do not realize that things today are already much worse than we are being told. 

Therefore, the public mentally starts with the wrong starting point and a misguided sense of urgency. To see how these reoccurring gross miscalculations have occurred by our authorities because of the politicization of the science and other factors, click here.  

(After you have read the above gross miscalculation by our authorities article, be sure to learn about the 20 worst global warming consequences here. Most of the consequences will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale over the next 50 years while we try to resolve the problems with reaching the 2025 targets listed on this page. Understanding global warming consequences is essential to understanding how 70 to 90% of the human population will die within the next 30 to 50 years.)

The 20 worst global warming consequences illustrated below create a steadily intensifying "vortex" as heat increases. This intensifying heat draws all the consequences into closer interaction and collision with each other. This process ultimately churns these consequences toward ever-higher levels of global destruction.

(Click the following link for more information on the 20 worst global warming consequences.)

Reason 12: Society's fear of change is also a major cause for the 35 years of social inertia concerning doing what must be done to ever resolve this extinction emergency. If we do not handle this dominant fear of change factor by assuring those whose jobs, livelihoods or assets are threatened we will assist them in this transition and help minimize any losses, it is highly unlikely we will be successful making the required 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. We must create adequate national and international new job transition training and recovery subsidies and funding that would assist all individuals, businesses, and nations that will suffer significant financial losses or closures because of the rapidly falling use of fossil fuels.

For example, carbon Fee and Dividend revenues (as well as other needed transition taxes,) could help compensate and assist developing nations in stopping using fossil fuels. It will also help developing nations leapfrog over the building or expanding any current fossil fuel energy generation systems directly into building or expanding green energy generation systems like solar or wind power. 

We cannot forget to financially both compensate, subsidize and actively assist all of those individuals, businesses, and nations who will be harmed financially in this rapid transition away from fossil fuels. This support would naturally also include providing new job training in positions for the new green economy or positions in other industries.

This step is critical to the success of all global fossil fuel reduction procedures, especially when the needed 2025 reductions are so severe. It is the unsurfaced fear of change and how it will harm the current status quo, which is a major source of the inertia that has prevented humanity from effectively managing the global warming extinction emergency over the last 35 years. (Please see the following research article on cultural trauma, social inertia, and climate change for a deeper understanding of the critical early importance of implementing this fear of change management and compensation step. This research paper will provide a stunning explanation of the many massive social fear barriers we must over-come with little time left. After you read this article, you may come to believe this social fears reason is one of the very biggest challenges we must overcome initially.)

Unfortunately, this is not happening now, has not happened over the last 35 years, and is highly unlikely to happen adequately before we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. (The above was drawn from Part Three of the Job one for Humanity plan.)

Reason 13: The near insolvable problem of global warming justice definitions and global warming restitution and aid processes. In general, the industrialized and northernmost countries of the world have produced by far the most atmospheric carbon which causes global warming and its many consequences. The northern industrial revolution countries have also created most of the global warming consequences for most of the developing world.

In the illustration below, most of the developing world is located mostly between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south. Ironically, the northern industrialized nations that have predominantly caused the global warming problem will often also temporarily benefit from the changes global warming creates to the climate in their countries.

The northern nations who are also most responsible for the global warming harms caused to the developing world are unfairly resisting paying for the damage that they have done to these nations. At the same time, the northern nations are also resisting taking in the existing millions (or the coming billions,) of new global warming climate refugees (climagees.) 

In the following illustration, the lands above the 45th parallel north (above the orange line at the top of the illustration.) are where most of the human population will have to migrate to as global warming continues to accelerate.

It appears that the developed nations do not want to pay fair and just damages to the developing nations. There also are no international standards of enforceable justice for the undeveloped world to obtain restitution for the damages that the developed world has done to it. This is because there is no standard global definition of justice or responsibility for an ecological and atmospheric damage issue such as this.

With no definition for ecological atmospheric justice and responsibility, it will be all but impossible for the developing world to receive what it should from the developed world. Additionally, the definition of justice and responsibility around the world not only changes in different nations, but it also varies in different cultures, religions, and ethnicities.

Coming to a standard definition of justice and responsibility on who pays fairly for the global warming damage they have caused will likely never happen. As an ongoing sign of this injustice, the developed world has not even paid the previously agreed upon and grossly inadequate amounts that they agreed to pay to the developing world in previous global warming agreements. 

This justice issue is highly relevant to eventually resolve the global warming emergency. This is a huge problem because the developed world most likely will never pay a fair and adequate restitution (or assistance,) to the developing world for the damage they have caused. This is because:

a. those restitution costs are not paid just once. They will continue to rise exponentially as global warming accelerates. Damages to the developing countries will run into the hundreds of trillions of dollars.

b. developed countries will need all of their current financial resources to survive and stay up with the ongoing global warming catastrophes occurring in their own countries, and because of

c. inherent known and implicit biases against the cultures, religions, or ethnicities of the developing world by the developed world.

Because of the above, developed nations will also not provide adequate funding to assist the developed world rapidly transition from fossil fuel energy generation to green energy generation and fossil fuel use to green energy use. This means the northernmost countries will use the resources they already have to convert their nations to green energy generation. While at the same time, the developing nations will not have adequate funding to do the same.  

This ultimately means that the developing world where most of the world's population now lives will have to continue using fossil fuels at ever-increasing levels as their nations grow. This means we will not be able to stop the global warming extinction emergency and the coming catastrophes because most of the world will not be part of the solution.

Reason 14: The recent and projected crossings of more global warming tipping points, positive feedback loops, and points of no return within the climate system. As we continue crossing more global warming tipping points, more global warming consequences will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale. 

This is because:

1. The points of no return before a tipping point is crossed as well as the crossed tipping point itself, create a "slippery slope" situation. In this "slippery slope" situation, it becomes far easier for that consequence to worsen more quickly and at a far steeper gradient.

2. tipping points when crossed create sudden and extremely difficult to recover from steep drop-offs or complete system crashes,

3. any positive feedback loop contained within the global warming tipping point processes will also significantly amplify either the positive or negative consequences of that tipping point, and 

4. a crossed tipping point within a system or subsystem tends to push other tipping points over their tipping points in the subsystems or systems interconnected to or interdependent with the original tipping point.

Understanding the 11 major global warming tipping points along with the Climageddon Scenario is essential to understanding how and why as much as 70 to 90% of the human population will suffer and die within as soon as the next 30 to 50 years. This horrible outcome will occur if we fail to hit the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets mentioned above. 

Please click here to read more about the 11 critical global warming tipping points below and what they will mean to how fast your life will change as more of them are crossed. 

Reason 15: The steady rise of methane in the atmosphere from new releases of methane from fracking, melting permafrost, tundra, and leaking natural gas lines act as a hidden source of our global fossil-fuel reduction failure. 

Unfortunately, we will most probably cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction level. Crossing carbon 600 ppm will result in raising the average global temperature to 5°C (9 degrees Fahrenheit) and bring about massive methane clathrate releases from ocean coastal shelves.

This has happened before in the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum 56 million years ago, and most notably the Permian–Triassic extinction event, when up to 96% of all marine species became extinct, 252 million years ago. (Please click here to watch a short video that brilliantly explains the extinction process once we start releasing methane clathrate from our coastal shelves. New research shows we begin this release process once we reach 5°C and by 6°C, it is in full bloom.) 

Because methane released as a gas from methane clathrate is 86 times more potent than carbon as a temperature increasing greenhouse gas, it will rapidly spike up the average global temperatures once again. The following is a methane graph (found at https://www.methanelevels.org)in which you can see how total atmospheric methane levels from all sources have exponentially skyrocketed, particularly during the last 50 years.

 

If methane also continues to rise to help push us toward the carbon 600 ppm tipping point and an average global temperature of 5°C, it will eventually bring about the extinction of most if not all of humanity (70-90%) and the end of civilization as we know it.

(Please note: There is also a concerted effort by the fracking industry to prevent the accurate measurement of methane in the atmosphere to keep the growing total methane release amounts from the fracking process hidden from the public.) When you add in the effects of methane (measured in part as CO2e,) for raising our temperature along with the impact of carbon, we are probably already well above our current carbon 414 ppm [around 430 CO2e+].) 

Reason 16: The publicly unknown effects of the soon crossed two key extinction-evoking global warming tipping points. The general public has been kept unaware that unless we hit or come very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and staying below carbon 425-450 ppm, there is no mathematical way to prevent crossing the carbon 500 ppm tipping point where all ice on earth will melt!

Beyond the math, there are numerous climate scientists who also believe that crossing the carbon 500 ppm is ALREADY inevitable because soon we will be passing other climate, biological and human system tipping points discussed on this page (and at this page.) This being locked into carbon 500 ppm already factor does not include the other accelerating global warming positive feedback loops occurring as you are reading this throughout our climate system. (Positive feedback loops enhance or amplify changes; this also tends to move a system away from its normal equilibrium state and make it more unstable. In this way, positive feedback loops are not too unlike tipping points.) 

If we do cross the near-final extinction tipping point of carbon 500 ppm, it is highly probable that not long afterward (about 20-30 years,) we will not be able to stop ourselves from reaching the carbon 600 ppm final extinction tipping point. 

The climate scientists who believe that we cannot prevent crossing carbon 500 ppm also believe that no matter what we do now, we also have already missed our window of control to prevent carbon 600 ppm. Furthermore, they believe that once we have crossed the carbon 500 ppm-level, we will not be able to keep from reaching the insane carbon 800 ppm-level. (Reaching carbon 800 ppm could also occur because of our adding more carbon in the atmosphere and because of the total accumulating effects of crossing more and more global warming tipping points, which will occur even more rapidly after crossing the carbon 500 ppm threshold.)

Our reading of the current science indicates that if we do not immediately reach the previously described 2025 radical fossil fuel reductions, we will cross the carbon 600 ppm-level. Even if we do achieve the necessary 2025 global fossil fuel cuts or, get very close to them, we still may be able to slow down crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point long enough to save a small portion of humanity and transfer needed infrastructure into global warming safer zones. 

At worst, even if we can not still prevent crossing the carbon 600 ppm level, we can at least, slow it down as well as some of the other worst coming global warming consequences. Slowing down crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point will be a Herculean task. It will take a massive global governmental cooperation and mobilization.  

There is some good news here. The probability that we can at least temporarily, slow, and delay some of the 20 worst global warming consequences by hitting our 2025 targets is still achievable. More importantly, this will allow us more time to get prepared for the many global warming consequences we can no longer avoid no matter what we do!)

What do the two extinction-evoking tipping points mean to you right now?

It is essential to be realistic for your future planning. As you can see the probability that we will cross the carbon 500 and carbon 600 ppm tipping points are far too high. By 2025 if we have not made the radical fossil fuel cuts necessary the final window of opportunity to prevent passing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point will close  

This is because of the:

a. temperature momentum already "baked" into the climate system (the existing carbon 414 ppm level already in the atmosphere,)

b. the additional three or more carbon particles per million we continue to add to the atmosphere each year (as we keep failing to reverse our fossil fuel use adequately,) and,

c. The additional global warming tipping points we will continue to cross at an even faster rate if we miss our 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets. And finally,

d. If we fail to reach or come close to the 2025 reduction targets, we are not just facing a mass extinction event we are facing total extinction! This is because we will cross the carbon 600 ppm-level. This is the level where we will also enter the beginning phases of run-away global warming! (If you are not sure about how much worse it can possibly get if we enter a run-away global warming total extinction phase, click its link in the previous sentence.)

Also never forget that at the 5°C average global temperature increase which will occur once we hit carbon 600 ppm and above, a large portion of humanity (as much as 70-90% or more,) will have died of starvation. This starvation will be due to the devastating effect that increased heat will have on crop failure.

This mass starvation will also come from global warming's other consequences or critical tipping points being crossed. Economies, governments, and societies also will collapse in many areas of the world between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south. 

As we reach the carbon 500 ppm and carbon 600 ppm tipping point levels, we will cross into most dangerous later phases (4 and 5) of the 6-phase Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown model (Climageddon Scenario.) At this point, please review the following Climageddon Extinction Scenario illustration starting from the bottom up! (It is the large diagram two sections down.)

The top of the diagram below shows you the later Climageddon Scenario consequences. The bottom shows you the earlier consequences.

At this point, it is necessary to take a slight detour before continuing with the reasons why the 2025 target failure is probable. This detour is because most individuals do not understand how and why will become our of our control if we cross the carbon 425, 500, and 600 ppm levels. 

How the three extinction-evoking tipping points of carbon 425, 500 and 600 ppm collectively further create the condition where global warming becomes out of humanity's future control

What most people really do not realize about crossing the above three extinction evoking tipping points of carbon 425, 500 and 600 ppm is that, at some point not long after passing them, it will be "too little too late" to make any real difference in avoiding the worst global warming catastrophes at some future point when we finally do begin making the required fossil fuel reductions. This loss of control is because soon after we cross the carbon 425 ppm climate cliff, we begin to trigger other natural climate system tipping points. After we cross carbon 425 ppm, we trigger larger naturally increasing methane releases from the tundra, permafrost, and ocean shelves. We will also eventually trigger massive additional natural carbon releases from our deep oceans, trees, and soils. 

Eventually, these natural system tipping points will also go into positive feedback loops with each other. These activated positive feedback loops will further intensify the crossing of more natural tipping points. 

These positive feedback loops within the climate's natural systems increase the average global temperature. This further triggers increased-heat caused releases of more naturally generated methane and carbon from the tundra and permafrost, which once again, further increases average global temperature in an endless cycle. Unfortunately, these increasing temperatures will go on and on until the Earth finally corrects itself hundreds or thousands of years in the future. 

Unlike humanity's remaining ability to control its use or not use of fossil fuels, if we cross the three previously mentioned natural climate system tipping points, the future is almost exclusively under nature's control! There is little to nothing we can do to keep the other natural sources of carbon and methane from becoming a runaway train of ever-increasing average global temperature. 

Humanity's inability to control these large and complex natural systems, tipping points and positive feedback loops IS the crucial reason why we cannot fail to meet the 2025 global targets or get very close to them. If we do, as soon as 2025, we will let any remaining control of the global warming extinction emergency slip out our hands for many human lifespans. 

We do not have until 2050 to make the required global fossil fuel reductions to save ourselves as many governments and fossil fuel companies want you to believe. We also do not have until 2040, 2035 or even 2030 to make the required fossil fuel reductions as many prominent but ill-informed environmental groups want you to believe.

We have only until 2025 to make the required global fossil fuel cuts to prevent going over the carbon 425 ppm climate cliff and losing all meaningful control of our global warming future! 

This emergency creates a 600 trillion dollar question hanging in the air. Why aren't the brightest minds in the world's intelligence agencies screaming at their national politicians about this nearly out of control emergency? Why aren't they making our politicians understand this is our last window of control to keep a super-destructive new global warming Pandora from getting out of her box? (600 trillion dollars plus is the estimate for the total global costs that we will occur if we survive, and if we go over the climate cliff and trigger the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction tipping point and the carbon 600 ppm final-extinction tipping point as discussed above.)

Why aren't our intelligence agencies (as well as the world's wealthiest individuals and corporations,) shaming our politicians into realizing that they have exposed ALL of humanity to an imminent and irrational extinction risk?

Why aren't these recognized as risk and threat levels that should NEVER be endured or justified? 

Why Climageddon awaits us if we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets

The Climageddon Scenario Cascading Meltdown and countdown illustration below reflects the unfolding natural progression of ever-worsening consequences, tipping points, and human system processes that will accelerate as the global warming emergency continues. These consequences, tipping points, and human systems will individually and collectively collide with each other.

This will cause them to adversely interact, which then will multiply and synergize many of each other's most harmful effects. It is these ever-increasing, heat-fueled cumulative interactions among and between worsening global warming consequences, tipping points, and human systems that will make almost every one of them worse faster and faster.

This illustration below illuminates the final core processes that will lead to our mass extinction as well as into global economic, political, and social chaos. Its three levels of global warming interactions (consequences, tipping points, and human systems,) highlight a continuous onslaught of crises and catastrophes that we are already beginning to experience. These levels of interaction foretell our eventual extinction.

Starting reading this illustration from the bottom because that is how Climageddon will unfold. 

More about the carbon 600 ppm extinction level tipping point

When we reach the carbon 600 ppm tipping point, we trigger the final processes that will bring about the extinction of as much as 70 to 90% of humanity (if not more and as soon as 2063-2072, or earlier.) Where in that 2063-2072 time range, we will reach carbon 600 ppm will be determined by which tipping points we cross and how much we add more carbon to our atmosphere each year.)  

But, extinction will not begin only when we reach carbon 600 ppm. Global civilization will have begun collapsing and mass die-offs will occur long before we have reached the carbon 600 ppm tipping point level. At or near carbon 600 ppm the unlucky survivors will enter into an ecological and climate hell. A new dark age will make the survivors of the following centuries curse us and wish they were dead.

(The global warming consequences, tipping points, and human system factors (shown above,) will be interacting and colliding with each other in 6 distinct phases and waves. At some point, after you finish this document, we strongly recommend that you read about the 6 phases and waves of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and countdown here. In detail, it describes the timetables and consequences of our global warming future if we miss the 2025 targets.)

As if the proceeding reasons alone are not enough to prove that global warming is already out of our meaningful control for the next 30-50 years, here is another reason.

Reason 17: No one is driving the "car." 

We do not have any effective global government (the car without a driver) overseeing the wellbeing of humanity and the Earth as a whole. What we have now is competing nations seeking their own selfish best interests most frequently at the expense of other countries, peoples, and the environment. 

One does not have to be a genius to know cars in motion without a driver always eventually crash!

It is unlikely that we will establish a true global government with legislative, executive, and judicial powers working for the benefit of ALL humanity as a whole within the next 3-5 decades if ever. Consequently, it is near certain that will we not get all of the needed global warming extinction prevention actions listed in Part 3 of the Job One Plan done in time. Consequently, the car of humanity without an effective global government will crash and go over the global warming emergency climate cliff. 

Reason 18: The adverse effects of climate momentum and inertia factors which also discourage public changes. Because of complex climate momentum and inertia factors which will delay experiencing the results of any fossil fuel reductions we make today by 20-30 years or more. This will make the painful changes we need to make today without seeing results for decades far less likely to occur.

Politicians telling their citizens they will need to make painful sacrifices now and not see any results of those sacrifices for decades is not likely to be a popular or successful process. (The many complex climate momenta and inertia factors are discussed in detail in the book Climageddon.)

Reason 19: The citizens of the world rising as a single powerful voice to demand their politicians act immediately to save the future may not likely happen in time to save us either.

This is because:

a. at the current time, there is too little cooperation between the world's environmental organizations to mass organize the world's population to get enough of the population (a minimum 3.5% to have a 50% chance of success,) protesting in the streets at the same time on the singular issue of the global warming extinction emergency. (Please see this just published [as of February 17, 2020,] very important new article for what would have to happen quickly for us to have a 3.5% or more public protest success in this area.)

b. unless there is a cooperation miracle or some new global warming catastrophe similar in impact to the 2020 COVID19 global pandemic bringing us all together in a shocking awareness of how bad it is and for the need of immediate change, creating a general understanding in the public of how bad things are and then getting the public to demand their politicians' act will probably take decades at the minimum. This time delay is because of the slow-moving process of education and consensus-building. It is also because of widespread global warming denial and the intentional and well-funded disinformation programs being executed by fossil fuel-related industries and the politicians they control.

c. there is a well-financed and highly effective global disinformation campaign run by the fossil fuel industries. The purpose of this disinformation is to try to confuse or impair the ability of average citizens to understanding how bad global warming is right now. It's purpose also is to ensure average citizens do not know how bad it is going to get, or how soon things are going to come crashing down on top of us. These disinformation campaigns freeze the average citizens in continuous doubt and uncertainty loop. This disinformation also freezes the desire or ability of the world's citizens to act and demand the needed changes. It helps maintain public inaction and inertia.

d. making the required fossil fuel reductions will impose incredible hardship and discomfort on the individuals of the world. The painful sacrifices needed will make it very difficult to get billions of people demanding less comfort and mobility from their politicians.

e. understanding the global warming extinction emergency is incredibly complex. To adequately understand the threat, an individual would have to have above-average intelligence, (IQ 130+.) They would also have to have read thousands of pages of global warming research, understand systems theory or, have an equivalent of a Ph.D. in climatology.

f. 16% of the human population can't read at all. A significant remaining percentage of the human population does not have the discipline or ability to educate themselves sufficiently on the nature of this complex challenge to understand it as a real emergency.

This above educational and political process most likely will not happen in time with this kind of complex educational emergency. There is not enough time before 2025 to get everyone educated on this issue. There also is most likely not enough time to get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets met once the politicians are finally influenced to act.

The primary and most likely good that will come out of increasing mass public protests is that we will get the politicians to act sooner. That will slow down the global warming extinction nightmare just enough so that those individuals forewarned have extra time to prepare and adapt so that their lives are longer and more comfortable during the extinction process.

Reason 20: The COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic presents a unique set of problems and advantages to reducing global fossil fuel use. It may cause the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets to be raised even higher or, it might even help us hit those targets. Please click here to read about all of those advantages and disadvantages in an article dedicated to getting our governments to act. You can make up your own mind about how the pandemic will affect global warming reduction.

Reason 21: Humans are terrible at recognizing and adapting to slow-moving, nearly invisible, small incremental changes. If a tiger is chasing us and we see it, we mobilize quickly to flee. But with the slow-moving, almost invisible, and small incremental changes of escalating global warming, we are like the experimental frogs that do not jump out of a slowly heating pot until they are cooked alive.

Additionally, humans do not seem to learn quickly or efficiently without a painful experience or tragedy. Few (less than 5%,) learn from reviewing hard data or history. Collectively our learning ability seems even worse. History has shown us with a preponderance of the evidence that governments, organizations, and groups seem to learn and set new policies and take new actions only after some horrendous tragedy or catastrophe has occurred. This collective learning and prevention inability happens over and over again throughout our history, even though the tragedy or catastrophe was visible and discussed long before it occurred.

This seeming evolutionary disability is what may be one of the most compelling reasons to doubt that we will effectively manage the global warming extinction emergency before it is too late.

The Final Shocker: Why our governments must work together and mass mobilize to achieve or get very close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets NOW or NO ONE will survive!

As if the above was not bad enough, there are other hyper-critical factors that need to be carefully considered and planned for in the nightmare post-climate cliff carbon 500 and carbon 600 ppm global warming scenario that we are now all facing: 

1. As if the proceeding was not enough to convince any rational individual that they need to do everything they can to get their governments to do everything described in Part 3 of the Job One Plan to slow and lessen global warming so they can survive, there is still more very bad news. As global warming worsens to its near-extinction levels, we will also have to deal with the following humanity and civilization-ending realities:

a. Nuclear reactors in global warming unsafe zones between the 45th parallel north and south (about 400,) will no longer be able to be kept secure or maintained by stable or functioning governments as global warming worsens and many of these governments enter social chaos and fail. If these nuclear reactors go critical and meltdown, it will not matter where you migrate to in the world.

No location or bunker will be safe from the massive continuous fallout and radiation from scores if not hundreds of reactors that will eventually go critical and spew radiation for centuries! The same holds true for all biological and chemical weapons or toxic chemicals stored in any areas with collapsing or collapsed governments. Once those areas are generally abandoned and are lawless and in chaos and no longer properly managed by functioning governments, these world-ending toxic commodities will slowly leak out or be seized and poison and kill areas far beyond their original locations.

b. Critical food production above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south will be extremely limited because the general soil quality and then lower seasonal sunlight amounts will be grossly inadequate using traditional or existing methods to grow enough food for the desperate billions of climagees migrating to these areas. Somehow the governments of the world will have to cooperate to justly and carefully limit how many people can occupy the very limited global warming safer zones and still be fed adequately.

Trying to carefully limit the number of people who can inhabit the few global warming safer zones by force or special lottery will of itself create unimaginable mass social chaos, panic, and conflict that will keep those living in the global warming safer zones under continuous threat and uncertainty. Anyone living in those very limited safer zones will only have temporary relief.

c. On the other hand, if you do not allow enough diverse individuals from the global warming unsafe zones to migrate, there will not be enough human genetic diversity to survive the waves of new diseases that will burn through the far north or far south because of thousands of-year-old unknown and known pathogens released from the melting permafrost (which humanity has never seen before and has no immunity.) Additionally, these global warming safer zones will also be under threat from new pathogens or existing pathogens that are always mutating. Only adequate genetic diversity will be our best guarantee that at least someone will survive.

d. and finally, in order for any of us to survive in any way close to what we are used to, the world’s key infrastructure for a modern functioning civilization to continue must be moved within the next 5-15 years using all of the relative political, economic and social stability which still remains. This means we need to begin immediately moving key industries like medical, pharmaceutical, manufacturing, etc. as well as key and adequate administrative, policing and other social structures into the global warming safe zones above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south. 

e. And finally, if we miss the 2025 targets by a significant amount, we will also move from just the horrendous threat of an unavoidable mass extinction event (where up to 70-90% of humanity will perish,) to the ultimate danger of a total extinction event where temperatures will keep rising in an unstoppable run-away effect, and nothing will survive. 

At some point, even the most optimistic person will recognize nothing will save them from this global warming meltdown monster if we don't get global fossil fuel usage under control by 2025. From that total of everything they and we are facing, they will also realize that we either cooperate and work together or die together.

"We are no longer in just an emergency to prevent global warming from getting worse. We are in an all-out war to prevent mass extinction as soon as within the next 30 to 50 years.

As long as we keep thinking about preventing global warming from getting worse or just dealing with "climate change," we are continuing to focus on the wrong target and we will most likely fail in preventing our own extinction. We and our governments need to shift our total focus to the sole goal of preventing global warming mass extinction within our lifetimes. This is because that is exactly what we are now facing." Lawrence Wollersheim

If you have not read about the six phases of the Climageddon Scenario, which take you through the painful details level-by-level as humanity moves closer to extinction, please do so soon by clicking here.

Humanity's mass extinction vs. total extinction dilemma, in summary

In many places on our website, we have laid out the global warming science, which indicates that we are already facing an unavoidable global warming-caused mass extinction event within our lifetimes. (If by chance, you still do not believe this, click the previous link. After you read that link, please read about the global warming-caused tipping points at this link. This second link will make the step-by-step unavoidable mass extinction process painfully clear!) 

One huge reason why this mass extinction event will occur is that we have ignored 35 years of scientific warnings. We missed the chance to fix global warming when we could have easily made the needed gradual changes to keep escalating global warming from reaching our current catastrophic point. 

This coming mass extinction event could cause the deaths of as much as 70-90% of humanity within as little as the next 30-50 years. Such a massive die-off would be due to soon crossing critical global warming tipping points as well as the combined future consequences of global warming particularly, mass starvation due to global crop failures of the most climate-sensitive crops. 

The coming mass extinction event is also unavoidable because we will soon be unable to stop ourselves from crossing the three most dangerous global warming tipping points. We will be unable to stop ourselves because we will be unable to achieve the life-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets!

More regrettably is the fact that the mass extinction of a vast portion of humanity is not the worst global warming future consequence we are facing. If we do not make or come reasonably close to the radical 2025 global reduction targets for our global fossil fuel use, we will also face the very beginning stages of a very real total extinction. 

A total extinction event could begin in as early as 50-70 years in the form of very high temperature and very high atmospheric carbon levels, which support initiating the final runaway-global warming process, aka the runaway greenhouse effect. (Runaway global warming is also referred to as runaway greenhouse effect or extinction-level global warming. Run-away global warming describes the circumstances in which the climate destabilizes catastrophically and permanently from its original state—similar to what happened on Venus when the planet lost its atmosphere out into outer space. Runaway global warming is thought to have occurred to Venus 4 billion years ago, because of a very high carbon-rich atmosphere and exceptionally high average surface temperatures.)

Runaway global warming will create a literal Climageddon meltdown where nothing will survive because there will be no atmosphere. This total extinction event could enter its first phase as soon as our average global temperature rises above 6 degrees Celcius. 

At a 5-6 degree Celcius increase in average global temperature, the massive additional tipping point releases of methane from coastal deposits and permafrost will skyrocket atmospheric carbon levels and average global temperatures. This will accelerate the earliest phases of runaway global warming.

Here is how this happens. At a 5-6 degree Celcius temperature increase, the costal deposit and permafrost "methane timed bomb" goes off. This will take us from the 5-6 degree Celcius atmospheric carbon level of 500-600 parts per million (ppm) far too quickly to the atmospheric carbon levels of carbon 800 ppm, carbon 1,000 ppm, carbon 1,200 ppm and even to carbon 1,600 ppm and beyond. (For reference, our climate was stable for hundreds of thousands of years at about carbon 270 ppm. We are currently at about carbon 415 ppm. This carbon 270 to 415 ppm increase has occurred since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, which was power by burning fossil fuels.) 

There is also another way we could enter into a global warming-caused total extinction event. That would be as global average temperatures reach a 3-6 degrees Celcius increase. At those temperature increase levels, there will be increasing mass starvation and a mass migration of desperate climagees (climate refugees.) 

To survive, countries in the many unsafe zones will demand land and resources from countries in the safer zones. Regional and international conflicts and wars will break out over the safer land areas and remaining resources. 

These wars will be of ultimate desperation and will undoubtedly include chemical, biological, and even nuclear weapons. Any weapons available will be used to force those governments in the global warming safer zones to open their borders to the billions of desperate climagees. Because there will not be enough resources available in the safer zones to support the billions of climagees, the most vicious wars the world has ever seen will likely be fought over the safest remaining areas on Earth in humanity's last fight for survival!

What is also essential to keep in mind when viewing our potential for a runaway global warming total extinction event beginning in about 50-70 years, is that a mass extinction event is already unfolding at an accelerating pace and, it will come to full realization throughout the next 30-50 years. But, we only have about 6 years left to reduce global fossil fuel enough (by coming as close as possible to the 2025 targets,) to prevent crossing the three most deadly global warming tipping points and bringing about the beginning phase of total extinction.

The REAL crisis, challenge and ultimate global warming critical question for our collective and individual future is...

"How do we prevent a global warming-caused total extinction event from occurring, while we are simultaneously dealing with an unavoidable mass extinction event, which is already occurring?"

The above is the most important global warming question that no politician or global warming education organization is currently honestly addressing! Yet, there is no more critical question for the survival of humanity that must be faced and managed or, there will be no more humanity!! 

This is the central question at Job One for Humanity which we are facing and managing in an honest, adult manner. In facing the global warming emergency over the last 11 years, we have been continually forced to create and update a science-based remedial plan that if honestly executed, has a reasonable probability of preventing the total extinction of humanity. 

This new plan is ultimately practical in that it also helps individuals make the critical emergency preparations and adaptions needed to deal with our steadily unfolding mass extinction process while also still promoting all of the key actions that must be done by our governments to prevent the total extinction of humanity.

The great news about our Job One Plan to manage the global warming extinction emergency is that...

if we can get our governments to act effectively on this emergency and meet the 2025 targets within the next 6 years, those of you who start preparing and adapting now, should be able to survive and thrive through what most of humanity will not. The only way to solve the dilemma of preventing a global warming-caused total extinction event from occurring, while we are simultaneously dealing with an unavoidable mass extinction event, which is already occurring is to begin the Job One Plan in the area that most fits with your circumstances!

Click here to overview the 4 Parts of the Job One for Humanity Plan to resolve the global warming emergency and prevent total extinction. Here you can learn what you can do to protect your family, business, and nation during the unfolding mass extinction event while at the same time helping to execute the most effective governmental actions required to resolve our total extinction emergency.

The hard decision for why must we press on and meet or get as close to the 2025 targets as is possible in spite of all the above challenges

The most important reason that we must press on and meet or get very close to the 2025 targets is simple and tremendously powerful. If we do get close to the 2025 targets, as much as 50% of humanity will suffer and die due to starvation over a relatively short period (1-2 decades.) As horrible as much as 50% of humanity suffering and dying is, this outcome is still far better than having 70-90% (or even all of humanity,) suffer and die over over the next 3-5 decades if we fail to reach or come very close to the 2025 targets. 

There are two things we can always be sure of in this global warming extinction emergency. In spite of all of the challenges and adverse global warming outcomes that are possible above, the single constant truth for the best possible outcome for humanity is that; the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use toward meeting the 2025 targets:

a. the more time we will "buy" ourselves to prepare and adapt to what we can no longer avoid, (see the global warming Plan B and survival kit here.)

b. the more people that will survive to carry on humanity, life, and our beautiful civilization into the future, and

b. surviving future generations will suffer far less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences and catastrophes.

In Summary

We have wasted decades of scientific warnings, and now our global warming bill has come due. The combined consequences of escalating global warming will most probably cause massive biological, economic, political, and social collapses and will end the lives of as much as 70 to 90% of humanity in as little as the next 30 to 50 years." 

Also, keep in mind that our government leaders utterly failed to see the coming pain and suffering of the COVID-19 pandemic, nor did they adequately prepare for it. Our government leaders are also not seeing or adequately preparing for the global warming extinction emergency, which is already happening and, will be far, far worse than COVID-19!)

Because of all of the above reasons, unfortunately, we will most certainly not reach the life-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Additionally, based upon global warming's many coming unavoidable consequences, global warming is already out of our meaningful control for at least the next 30-50 + years. 

Worse yet, consequences such as global warming-related mass starvation and mass migration are not 20, 30, or 50 years away. Unfortunately, famine is already happening to millions. Soon it will be happening to tens of millions and then to hundreds and hundreds of millions more over the next 10 to 20 years. Within 30-50 years, billions will need to migrate or die of starvation and the other global warming consequences.

Because of all of the above as well as the other global warming caused or aggravated consequences, if we do not radically and immediately and radically reduce our fossil fuel burning behaviors by getting as close as possible to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, crop failures, mass starvation, and mass migrations will continue to get worse and eventually affect the majority of humanity if not all of humanity in a total extinction event.

Equally important to understand is that --- this does not mean everything is hopeless and we should give up our efforts to improve what we can. There is still much we can do to slow and lessen escalating global warming to save more of humanity for a more extended period, and to give us more time to prepare and adapt so that hopefully a few us will survive.

To help you do prepare, adapt, and better enjoy the time you do have left we have provided this link to the 4-part Job One for Humanity Plan. It will also show you how you can help slow down this escalating extinction emergency while you prepare for and adapt to it with the time we have left. Our Job One Plan will provide detailed information on how to better protect your family, assets, business from the many unavoidable global warming catastrophes that will be arriving soon. 

For information and practical actions for what you can still do to help the world get as close as possible to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets and make the best of a desperate situation for yourself and your family and business, please click here.

At this point, we also strongly recommend that you read this article in the New Yorker magazine! It will help you come to terms with the painful truth of what you have been reading. At this point, you most likely also better understand why many climate-informed individuals now believe we will not be successful in achieving the life-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.

You are not alone

Based upon the above, many of you will decide that even though we still theoretically have enough time left to reach the 2025 targets, we will not do so. Many of our staff, website members, and visitors have come to the same conclusion. 

They see that our governments do not have either the understanding or the courage to make the tough decisions that are now necessary. They also understand our governments are currently doing virtually nothing that will give a reasonable person hope we will meet the life-critical 2025 targets.

Realizing this, they then focus their influence, attention, and resources on the parts of the Job One Plan where they believe they can still do the most good. This way, they do not also waste valuable time, energy, and resources fighting battles that cannot be won. 

Most individuals who have come to this painful conclusion concerning our ability to reach the 2025 targets immediately start our Plan B of the Job One Plan, which is your survival kit

So that more of us can survive longer and suffer less, we at Job One will continue to do everything we can to support lowering total global fossil fuel use as fast as is possible. This way, we will have more time to prepare for what is coming, and more of us can have meaningful and enjoyable lives for as long as is possible. Many staff and volunteers within Job One are also taking actions to prepare and adapt ourselves and our families for what we can no longer avoid.

Some needed good news, hope, and surprise benefits to help you keep this heartbreaking but true news in perspective

Even though global warming has now reached a level of being out of control for at least the next 30-50 years, depending upon where you live in the world many of us still have a significant amount of time left to make our emergency preparations, adapt our environments, lifestyles, and livelihoods wherever possible, and where necessary, migrate to say for global warming safe zones to save ourselves, much of humanity and our civilization. Once we have wisely made our emergency preparations, adaptations, or migration if necessary, we still may have a few decades left to live meaningful and enjoyable lives, but only if we are knowledgeable about what is coming.

The following expanded good news is most certainly needed to counterbalance the above difficult news. The full good news is:

1. We are intelligent and adaptive beings and we are able to solve or adapt to almost anything.

2. In order to create the best possible outcome for ourselves and those we love, we can and need to squarely face this emergency and prepare for and adapt to it. If we start immediately, and we work together using an effective, prioritized plan like the one we have created called the Job One for Humanity Plan, many of us will still survive and thrive (if we are very lucky about 10-30 % of the world's population,) when this is over. 

3. The future is unknown and full of unpredictable negative and positive wild cards. This also means that there is still hope for some of humanity and civilization to survive, but only if we quickly exercise responsible, intelligent and effective, "first things first" Job One Plan critical path adaptive actions to survive the global warming extinction emergency.

4. We can still fully enjoy each day (as best as we can, even in spite of the rapidly destabilizing climate, escalating global warming catastrophes and other deteriorating or retrogressing other major converging global challenges that will be made much worse because of global warming. We can and should make our lives as happy and as meaningful as they can be during this global warming retrogression and transitional period. We can continue to live meaningful and enjoyable lives for many years to come if we are wise and act immediately to radically reduce fossil fuel use and to prepare and plan for what is now unavoidable!

5. Overcoming this global warming extinction emergency as well as our other major converging global challenges will also help us better solve even our currently unknown future challenges as one effective and united human family, and it will eventually help us create a sustainable prosperity for all. It is important to understand our other major converging global challenges because our current global warming extinction emergency is also occurring simultaneously while these other challenges are unfolding.

Additionally escalating global warming is also a multiplier of these other challenges. These other major converging global challenges in many cases also help cause and/or magnify the global warming extinction emergency. Some of these other major converging global challenges contain the roots of the deepest causes behind the global warming extinction emergency.

6. Hopefully, enough of us should be able to make it through this escalating global warming evolutionary bottleneck and minimize the worst of this temporary transitional evolutionary retrogression that we are currently in (and creating.) Life and humanity have had many species ending evolutionary retrogressions in the past.

7. Working together we will by necessity need to build many new sustainable eco-communities in the global warming safe zones. These new eco-communities will serve as a critically necessary backup plan for humanity and civilization. They will also act as successful examples and "beacons of light" teaching the new sustainable lifestyles and livelihoods vital to even have a future. (For more information on these eco-communities see the new eco-community model at our sister website.)

8. We should be encouraged by the fact that in the last 4.5 billion years of Earth's evolution, some form or aspect of life has survived 5 previous mass extinctions.

9. There are more good news and surprise benefits about the global warming extinction emergency that offers additional hope for the evolution of humanity, click here for them. This surprise benefits page is one of the most read pages on our website!

As Michael Dowd the evolutionary teacher likes to say "what really matters is coming back into the right relationship with reality." Because we have failed to effectively resolve escalating global warming over the last 35 years of warnings by our best scientists, we will now literally be forced by its escalating consequences to come back into a new right relationship with reality or we will perish!

To create a right relationship with the reality of out of control global warming our organization has also evolved into an eco-community of sustainability advocates and Evolutioneers that value the wisdom of appropriate threat preparedness, adaptability, and living sustainably. We are not fear manipulated or fear dominated, but we also will never ignore painful data that should trigger protective and useful evolutionary fear reactions, like our current global warming extinction emergency. We use such "warning feedback" and appropriate evolutionary fear to wisely anticipate, avoid, prepare and/or adapt.

We are preparing and growing our local eco-community in advance for this transitional global warming crisis and its new kind of evolutionary bottleneck and retrogression. We are doing this solely because the current facts clearly shout that many of our ecological (and in some areas even our economic, political and social systems,) are in severe challenge or, are nearing critical tipping points or collapse with no or low remaining recovery resilience left to "right the ship." Nowhere is this now more true than in the catastrophe amplifying and multiplying area of our escalating global warming extinction emergency.

To the discerning evaluator and researcher, both human history and the current global warming facts indicate that many of our other non-global warming converging global challenges will continue to get worse faster with little realistic hope of correction before a chain reaction of multiple or, cascading global catastrophes and crossed tipping points shakes us and wakes us to the need for drastic and immediate evolutionary improvement toward more sustainable livelihoods and lifestyles.

Because of what we are now doing as a species (expanding fossil fuel use and its consequent atmospheric carbon pollution,) and not doing, (immediately establishing strictly enforceable international carbon pollution limitation laws,) global warming is rapidly getting worse now on an exponential curve. And, it will get much, much worse in the decades to come. And, if we don't hit the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets, we really can't do much about it at this late date with our current political and economic global warming remedial actions, conditions, and inertia.

We are not detached survivalists waiting for the end of the world! We are engaged sustainability advocates and Evolutioneers working actively to create a better world. We believe whole-heartedly in working for the best possible future (doing everything possible to hit the 2025 targets,) while at the same time wisely being prepared for the worst possible and temporary transition period. 

To help deal with this global warming extinction emergency, we also envision that by necessity and as a safeguard, there also needs to be a widespread establishment of multitudes of new eco-communities in all of the global warming safe zones. They will play an essential (and possibly major,) role in securing the survival of humanity and civilization and in the establishment of the new sustainable prosperity vision within the post-global warming culture.

By helping to create these new backup eco-communities in the global warming safe zones, driven into creation by the urgency of the global warming extinction emergency, we together can help ensure a better path for the long-term future of humanity and our civilization.

We will enact our mission and message only by using only peaceful and evolutionary means and where we can still find enjoyment and joy in the relationships and experiences of our day to day lives.

And finally, even if the escalating global warming extinction emergency and the convergence of it with humanity's other major converging global adaptive challenges was somehow resolved in the next 30 to 50 years or turned out to be not as bad as is currently predicted by current science, we would be better off for our implementation of sustainability practices, and these new eco-communities would function even better and more joyously on their other goals of helping to co-create the necessary restructuring and re-alignment of society necessary to create:

a.) a sustainable prosperity for all of humanity (and because of the dangers of ignoring the 5000-year Sustainability rule,)

b.) a just and equitable civilization and

c.) thriving and meaning-filled individuals and communities --- all of which will better align with and forward the progressive evolution of life in the universe. 

A summary of the most important facts on this page

Because of the above, we have a very limited ability remaining (until 2025,) to adequately reduce atmospheric carbon levels caused by our burning of fossil fuels to prevent global warming's 20 worst consequences from getting far worse and crossing more of global warming's 11 critical tipping points. This out of control global warming reality has consequences of such severity that it will most probably end the lives of as much as 70 to 90% of humanity in as little as the next 30 to 50 years.

The reality of our out of control global warming has been predetermined by the immutable cause-and-effect laws of physics and the inescapable mathematics and momentums of the rising past and present carbon ppm levels in our atmosphere. No amount of fossil fuel disinformation or conservative or progressive denial can change the physics and math of the deadly emergency we are caught in. The apple will fall from the tree just as the law of gravity has predicted.

Most conservatives in the US deny global warming. Most progressives do not deny that there is global warming, but they do either deny or are grossly ignorant about how bad global warming is really going to get as well as how soon those really bad consequences are going to happen.

The question of the century has now become; do we continue to deny global warming reality and, alternatively fail to slow it as much as we can while we also simultaneously prepare ourselves and adapt to what is now unavoidable?

At this point, our greatest task may be, to begin to save and salvage whatever we can of humanity and our civilization before even that is too late.

If we continue to deny the new global warming reality of being out-of-control for as much as the next 30-50 years, we will not prepare or adapt in time. If we continued to deny, we will also not promote the necessary immediate mass global mobilization and governmental actions for radically cutting fossil fuel use to 2025 target levels in order to help save as many individuals as possible and preserve the critical infrastructure of civilization. (Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)

Crossing carbon 500 ppm tipping point is the super-slippery, very steep, and fast slope to reaching the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point level.

Crossing just the carbon 425-450 level condemns us to cross more global warming tipping points, which then directly leads to the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction tipping point level consequences growing in frequency, severity, and scale across climate, human, and ecological systems. 

There is still hope that we can prevent the later phases of the Climageddon Scenario end-of-the-world climate model from occurring, but only if we act now and make the 2025 radical and immediate global fossil fuel use reductions as described above while we also enact the other steps of the Job One Plan! 

At this point, maybe you have decided we are near-certainly headed to a mass extinction event. All you want to do is protect your loved ones for as long as you can, while you try to live out the rest of your life as happily as you can. No one here will blame or judge you. If that is what you want to do, then see the global warming Plan B and survival kit here and adjust it as needed.

Are you feeling sad, upset, depressed, angry, or anxious about the global warming emergency?

There is a lot of horrible news to digest about global warming. Any person who realizes that our governments are not doing enough to save us from unthinkable suffering and loss will naturally experience sadness, anger, depression, or significant anxiety.

The Job One for Humanity staff also has had to digest all the dreadful global warming news. To get our team though it emotionally, we learned about something called the Kubler Ross model of change. This emotional management model helped our team deal with all of the challenging emotions that today's global warming news evokes. 

We felt it would be irresponsible to leave our readers without some of these tools to manage the intense feelings that the global warming emergency can create. Accordingly, we are providing the following images and tools that should help you come to emotional terms with the new realities of global warming. Here's how these global warming caused emotional reactions, transitions, and healings usually look for most people:

1. If you're like most people, what you have learned about the global warming emergency will cause you to initially react with denial and shock. 

 

2. If you have the tenacity to explore more concerning how bad our governments have let global warming become, you will likely also become frustrated and angry at "how could our politicians and governments ever allow this to happen.

3. If you continue examing the facts of the global warming emergency and its solutions, you will most likely then enter into a bargaining or experimenting phase to find some way to deal with such disturbing and disruptive information on your life and future.

4. If you continue verifying the facts of the global warming emergency as well as it's honest but difficult and painful solutions, you will most likely next enter into a transitional feeling of grief or depression. 

5. As you work your way through your grief or depression, you will eventually come to a level of acceptance of what is scientifically accurate. (Even though it is currently is being suppressed by the fossil fuel industry, mass media, and the politicians owned by the fossil fuel industry.)

A bit more about the Kubler Ross Model emotional management model

The five primary emotional transition levels above are vital parts of the Kubler Ross model. Over time, this model is a useful tool to help you deal with the global warming denial, anger, fear, grief, or anxiety that any healthy person would experience once they truly realize the current nature of our global warming emergency.

The Kubler Ross model is used to help people deal with the medical news that they are going to die. But, it still has powerful relevance here.

This is true because as you wrestle with the new global warming realities, you will most likely go through these five emotional phases over and over again. You will do this in numerous waves until you finally reach a profound and deeply stable state of acceptance, peace, and hopefully motivation to do whatever you can to reduce this threat.

When you finally realize how bad our global warming emergency is, the challenging emotional affects are a real thing! If you don't believe us, please click here to read about a new report called, The Psychological Effects of Global Warming on the United States and Why the U.S. Mental Health Care System Is Not Adequately Prepared.

Reaching necessary emotional acceptance and getting into action

Once you reach a level of emotional acceptance for what you have learned about the global warming emergency, you will be more willing and ready to begin new ways to solve the global warming emergency. You also will find yourself being better prepared to make new decisions on how to adapt and integrate this critical information into your life and business. 

You may begin even emergency preparations for the unavoidable coming global warming consequences. This way, you are better able to protect you, your family, and business and wisely maximize the chances of staying out of harm's way.

Once one reaches the critical state of emotional acceptance of the reality of what one is facing, most mature adults do as they have done for millennia. They accept what they cannot change and start finding ways to adapt to it. (There are also many adaptation steps found in the Job One Plan.) They also accept the truth of the bad news, and they get busy working on whatever they can do to change and improve it. (In this case, the get active on the Job One Plan action steps.) 

We at Job One have found that the best thing to help minimize the emotional pain and trauma is to get busy completing the action steps of the Job One Plan. This is true even if you have not fully reached the acceptance level of your emotional recovery. The Job One Plan's many action steps proactively focus your attention on what can still be done. This focus on the needed action also minimizes your available attention on the negatives (once they have served their purpose of redirecting you toward action on the deeper truths of this emergency.)

Therapy or support groups also can help you work through having the painful realization that humanity is in the worst existential crisis on its history and, we do not have much time left (until 2025,) to effectively prevent mass extinction. Therapy or support groups can also help get you motivated to do whatever you can on the many action steps of the Job One Plan.

As you continue to understand the scale of our global warming emergency, you may also come to realize that our lives and our children's lives are going to be far shorter than we ever imagined. But that still can be changed if we immediately react to the challenge of radically reducing our global fossil fuel usage to meet the 2025 targets!

One great emotional recovery tip 

Not everything about our global warming extinction emergency is emotionally disheartening. There are many surprising benefits to this emergency. Click here to read the single most read page on our website on these many benefits. At Job One we review this list regularly to maintain the mental well-being of our own staff. We also discovered that regular review of this good news and benefits list was critical to keeping our volunteers on-mission and maintaining their motivation as well. 

Additionally

Because most of you that have understood the previous facts (that do not fall into a defensive denial,) will naturally and appropriately feel shocked, sad, angry or even betrayed, the most logical and the best thing to do to deal with those often overwhelming feelings is to work for "the best" while you prepare for "the worst," just in case we fail. What this means is that you will need to focus as much as your energy and resources on just two main action strategies:

a. Get busy on getting the 2025 reduction targets met by getting our governments enacting and enforcing the laws needed to reach the 2025 targets. (Click here to learn what you need to know to get started on this.) and,

b. Get busy with emergency preparations and adaptations for you, your family, and/or your business for many of the now unavoidable consequences that will be arriving soon. (Click here to begin this process.)

These two action-based strategies will minimize the natural feelings of being shocked, sad, angry, or feeling completely betrayed by our current world leaders until you can get additional emotional support or assistance from other outsides sources or from working through the above Kubler Ross model on your own.

There is only one thing we can always be certain of in this emergency. No matter what, and in spite of all of the challenges and bad outcomes that are possible, the single constant truth for the best possible global warming outcome for humanity is that the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use:

a. the more people that will survive to carry on humanity, life, and our beautiful civilization into the future, and

b. future generations will suffer far less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences and disasters.

Help us get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction goals met by signing the global warming extinction emergency petition now.

A final motivational booster

So what MUST we do individually and collectively at this critical moment in time if we are to survive? First of all, You must make a decision about the rationality and factual nature of what you have just read. If you find this information credible and reasonable, you must decide what you are going to do to manage or adapt to what you have learned.

As this document clearly shows, there is no escape or easy solutions. There will be unconscionable, unbearable and unthinkable pain whether we are successful in radically reducing fossil fuel usage to the 2025 targets or whether we are not successful.

But no matter what, We are STILL left with this. We either make the radical 2025 fossil fuel cuts necessary and allow the world economy to go into a severe recession or depression and a huge portion (up to 50%,) of the human population consequently suffers and dies or, we do not make the radical fossil fuel cuts and almost all (70-90% if not all,) of the human population dies and our civilization ends as well.

In spite of all of the many challenges and painful difficulties of radically reducing global fossil fuel usage to the required 2025 target levels to prevent most if not all of humanity from going extinct, what other real choice is there? If we do not begin and make fossil fuel reductions immediately, we can't even hope to slow down global warming just enough so that at least some small percentage of humanity will survive and civilization will go on.

Therefore in every situation above, the only way we save our future is to cooperate globally at the highest governmental levels and radically reduce global fossil fuel use to the 2025 reduction numbers mentioned on this page! Even in spite of inevitably crossing the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction tipping point (and the likelihood of also crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point,) no matter what, we must still immediately do whatever we can to make the best of this horrible situation.

While there will be unimaginable pain either way, but at least, if we are successful with our 2025 fossil fuel reductions, some of humanity and our civilization will go on. And even if we are not successful with our 2025 targets, at least if we're making radical progress towards them progress towards them, more people will live longer more comfortably. And that alone is a tremendous value to the future.

So here is what needs to happen.

We now need to come together immediately as individuals but even more importantly our governments need to come together and get very busy in a mass global mobilization to do what we still can do while we still have time left to do it! (What our governments must specifically do is in Part 3 of the Job One Plan. What we must do is in Parts 1,2 and 4 of the Job One Plan.)

At this point, you're probably feeling a bit overwhelmed by what you have read and the enormity of what we must do to survive. You may have also reached the point of saying it's impossible or, the task is so large with such a low probability of success, why even try. The following ancient story and subsequent materials should help you deal with these natural mindsets to just give up or deny the problem even exists.

A wise Chinese general was cornered at the banks of a large river by an opposing army at least 20 times larger than his own. His only means of escape was to get his army across the river before they were attacked. This general had also previously placed enough boats on the bank of the river for escape with his army should that need arise.

As the larger army approached, pushing the smaller army closer to the river, this general gave the order to his most trusted lieutenants to rush to the boats and burn them. When his army saw their only means of escape was being destroyed, they became wildly angry and charged toward the general. The army demanded to know why their trusted general had burned their escape boats and condemned all of them to certain death at the hands of a vastly superior army.

The general calmly said, “We will win this battle or we will die. There is no other alternative and no escape.”

His army now knew their only option was victory or death. Filled with such clarity and single-mindedness of purpose, they fought with such reckless intensity, they defeated the opposing army 20 times their size.

Now that you truly understand the rapidly approaching consequences of our global warming extinction emergency, you too should no longer retain any illusion of any real long-term escape for you or your family, business, nation or for humanity or our civilization. What you also may not have realized yet is that our 35-year failure to have previously executed effective control of the escalating global warming extinction emergency means that we too, in effect, have already burned our escape boats! We are now at the last chance 2025 fossil fuel reduction climate cliff.

Yes, this is the perilous tipping point that we have come to because of our inaction and ineffectiveness in addressing global warming for almost 35 years. If we are very, very lucky, we will make the required 2025 critical fossil fuel cuts.

By doing nothing to get our governments to radically and immediately lower fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 targets, even if we fail, your inaction will only shorten the critical time frame necessary to move people, technology, and infrastructure to the far north or far south so that possibly you or those you love can be temporarily safe and live a little bit longer with a little less suffering. All rational people would agree that living for a temporarily longer period with a better quality of life is far better than suffering more and dying sooner. 

Better yet, if we act wisely together and get our governments in action to radically cut fossil fuel use now to meet the 2025 targets and, we are very lucky, humanity and civilization will continue. In the end, the simple truth is once again, we either cooperate and work together in a government-driven mass mobilization or we ALL die together!

What do you have to lose and, what rational alternative do you have other than to act immediately to get our governments to radically reduce global fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 targets, and at the same time get prepared for the coming horrible consequences that are already unavoidable? What you need to realize unequivocally is that hitting the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets IS our last small chance to avoid mass extinction and chaos in our lifetimes! It is just that simple.

What legitimate excuse is there for you to not also help our organization mobilize more people like yourself to face and deal with this humanity ending emergency. 

Other Relevant Information:

(The Sections below this line are still in draft mode.)

What are the timetables for the worst of the now unavoidable global warming consequences that will occur before we reach the extinction-level consequences?

How fast it gets worse from where we are today and how much time we have left before the worst of the 20 major coming consequences global warming consequences begin to directly or indirectly affect you, your family, business or nation depends completely on your current location and, our hitting or not hitting the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets. If we do not hit the 2025If we do not hit the 2025 targets, the following consequences and time frames will occur even sooner.

Many individuals around the world are experiencing many severe consequences already. In about 10 to 15 years, the 20 major consequences of global warming, the accumulating mass migrations of climagees (climate migrants), and the global warming aggravated economic, ecological, political, and societal effects will have increasingly severe and destabilizing impacts in almost all areas of the world. 

But global warming consequence severity will increase most rapidly within the next 5-10 years in the areas between the 25th parallel north and the 25th parallel south. Within the next 10 to 15 years, the areas of increasing consequences severity will generally expand throughout the areas between the 35th parallel north and the 35th parallel south.

Within 15 to 25+ years, life will more regularly become unbearably chaotic and unstable for those unfortunate individuals and businesses still trying to live and operate below the 45th parallel north or the 45th parallel south. The key factors that will drive these mass migrations will be, crop failures and starvation because of increased heat and drought, sea-level rise, crashing property values in unsafe zones, soaring property values in safer zones, breakdown of law order and society, increased resource conflict and war, wildfires, rain bombs and other types of severe storms and other major global warming consequence increasing in frequency, severity, and scale.

Depending on your current and ultimate location, financial loss, and death tolls from global warming-related catastrophes will continue to rise steadily until we reached what we call the last phases of the Climageddon Scenario. This is where as much as 70-90% of the world's total population will die within as little as 30-50 years. This will occur primarily because of more crossed global warming tipping points as well as starvation, migration wars, civil unrest, and many of the other 20 worst global warming consequences. 

Depending upon your location and our 2025 fossil fuel reduction success, during this remaining time window to prepare, adapt, or migrate, those who understand this page will still have control of a good portion of their lives, far longer than those individuals who deny, ignore or are unaware of the new reality that global warming is rapidly becoming out of meaningful control for as much as the next 50 years. In general, the many coming global warming consequences will almost always increase in severity, frequency, and scale over time and, their progression will not be a slow and steady linear progression. In many cases and locations, it soon will be an exponential progression with massive climate, biological and human system crashes and collapses.

Now that you have a useful and relevant developmental time window for our global warming extinction emergency, you are ready to learn more about what out of control global warming is as well as how it will inescapably adversely affect your future, family, finances and nation, and what you can still do about it. At the end of this document, you will also find some good news and other surprise benefits that will also help you maintain a more positive "bigger picture" context for the incredibly difficult situation we find ourselves in now that global warming has in many ways already become out of our meaningful control (as described throughout this document.) 

The other materials below on why global warming is most likely already out of meaningful control will also help you understand the other longer-term critical global warming extinction emergency time frames and critical junctures that are unfolding as you read this and that will have powerful and catastrophic effects on our ecological, economic, personal and political futures. As you continue reading so much difficult news do not forget, if we are smart and move quickly, we can also still slow and lessen some of the worst of the 20 major coming consequences.

How long will it take for our out of control global warming to become controllable once again if we hit our 2025 targets and prevent extinction?

The preceding information means that it is highly likely various climate systems and subsystems will still continue in a positive feedback loop of ever-increasing average global temperature. Consequently, because of all of the factors discussed above this point we are, in fact, already in an uncontrollable cycle of irreversible global warming for at least another 30-50 years with more unavoidable catastrophes coming soon that will occur at a greater severity, frequency and scale no matter what we do!

Keep in mind that as the temperature continues to rise, we will always cross more tipping points faster and faster, which will result in faster and faster even spiking increases in average global temperatures and a cascading climate meltdown. (Please see the new book Climageddon for all the details on exact Climageddon Scenario meltdown.)

Additionally, it is wise to remember that at the minimum, the relative time frame for removing (sequestering) the carbon ppm particles we are currently adding to our atmosphere is centuries to thousands of years. This means that long, long after we stop actively polluting our atmosphere with fossil fuels (at least 50 years from now,) the 20 most deadly consequences of those actions will last for many, many generations.

Viewing the dangerous rise of human-caused atmospheric carbon in parts per million (ppm) from a historical perspective will help you understand just how bad it really is!

The following graph will help illustrate what will happen to our carbon ppm levels in the future from a perspective of hundreds of thousands of years in the past. As you can see in the last part of the graph, which has been broken out in the smaller yellow box to better illustrate the last 1,000 years, it clearly shows we have entered a whole new much higher range of increased atmospheric carbon risk and threat exposure. We have deviated from Ice Age long-term cyclical carbon ppm highs of about carbon 275 ppm to over carbon 400 ppm. (As of May 2018 we are at about carbon 411 ppm.)

Image via Robert A. Rohdes, Wikimedia Commons. (Parts per million by volume [ppmv] includes other pollutants and trace greenhouse gases, such as methane.)

For hundreds of thousands of years, we always stayed below 275 carbon parts per million by volume (ppmv)--the range conducive for human life. But with the advent of the Industrial Revolution and fossil fuel use, average global temperatures and carbon ppm have soared to levels unseen for millions of years (about 1.5° to about 2.7° Celsius.

This is very bad for our future and our civilization because carbon 425 to 450 ppm is roughly double the previous civilization safe highest Ice Age cyclical average point of about carbon 275 ppm for the last 400,000 years. At this 425-450 ppm level, we will be crossing more global warming tipping points at a faster and faster rate.

Still, don't believe that global warming is out of control for at least the next 30-50 years? Let us continue to prove it to you!

All of the preceding, and far more information about how we have created our current out of control global warming nightmare and global warming extinction emergency can be found in the new Climageddon book. If you want to get a printed or ebook versions of Climageddon from Amazon, click here. 

Each purchase of a printed version of Climageddon helps support the Job One for Humanity nonprofit organization and our Job One Plan to help you survive and thrive through our current global warming extinction emergency.

So what does all of the above really mean to the probable likelihood of either you or your children having anything like a long, relatively stable, peaceful or prosperous future?

Based on the validity of the information on this page and the principles of rationality, we must now do everything within our power to actively limit the coming total damages and save and salvage what we can by:

1. getting very close to reaching the 2025 fossil fuel reductions required, and 

2. preparing for and adapting to whatever global warming consequences we can no longer avoid so that we can save as much of humanity and civilization as possible.

What this also means is, that while you are working as hard as you can to get our governments to radically reduce fossil fuel usage to meet the 2025 targets in Part 3 of the Job One Plan, and depending upon if your current location is in global warming safe zone or how well you are preparing for what is coming as described in Parts 1 and 2 of the Job One Plan, you should still be able to fill your life with as much joy and satisfaction as is possible for about the next 10 to maybe 20 years. Therefore, the time to enjoy your life is now because the escalating global warming extinction emergency is going to make life progressively worse faster and faster.

Never forget there are no guarantees we will be successful in the Herculean mass mobilization task of getting our governments acting in unison to radically reduce fossil fuel use and meet the 2025 targets to prevent or at least slow our crossing the final carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point. 

Will escalating global warming ever end and our climate return to normal?

Over many hundreds of thousands of years, our planet's climate has remained relatively stable and highly conducive to the development of humanity and our civilization. During those hundreds of thousands of years, the atmospheric level of carbon particles in our atmosphere was consistently around carbon 270 ppm. If atmospheric carbon moves much above or much below that 270 ppm level things do not work out nearly as well for humanity and civilization.

Our current out-of-control global warming over as much as the next 30-50 years also describes the process of the earth’s average global temperature increasing or being maintained at an unsafe level over extended periods of time far longer than multiple human lifespans. At the minimum, the relative time frame for removing (sequestering) the carbon particles we are currently adding to our atmosphere through natural means is centuries to thousands of years.

This means that long, long after we stop polluting our atmosphere with fossil fuels, the 20 most deadly consequences of those actions will go on and last for many generations, and both we and future generations will suffer dearly for our failures to address and resolve this emergency now. Luckily, nature has an amazing ability to heal itself over great spans of time.

To lower the world's average global temperature and atmospheric carbon levels back to the relatively safe preindustrial levels of carbon 270-350 ppm, we must scale up green energy generation over the next several centuries to replace all fossil fuel energy generation and we must radically cut fossil fuel use by the 2025 percentages and deadlines described previously. If we do that it may take centuries to thousands of years, but nature will take care of itself and clean our atmosphere.

Therefore, What each of us needs to realize unequivocally is that hitting the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets IS our last chance to avoid mass extinction and chaos in our lifetimes! It really is that simple.

In order to help you, your family and business as well as society prepare for and adapt to the current global warming extinction emergency and more importantly, radically reduce global fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 targets to slow global warming's avoidable consequences, our organization forwards the brutally honest, prioritized and practical 4 part free Job One for Humanity Global Warming Plan. 

If you are wondering how did this gross misinformation of the general public and our current state of out of control global warming and crisis happen?

Click here for the full story.

More information on why we may already be out of meaningful control of global warming for as much as the next 30-50 years

The initial temperature range for triggering the beginning of being in a state of out of control global warming varies between 1.7 to 2.2° Celsius (about 3- 4° Fahrenheit.) This is, unfortunately, the last chance climate cliff where we are at now or, very close to that (or even beyond that,) temperature when you also add in and compensate for the following factors:

1.) all of the gross miscalculations and,

2. all other "already committed" or “baked in” temperature increasing factors due to carbon soot, climate, ecological, geological, and human system momentums and inertias that are already active and which, are explained in part in on this page in the 13 reasons section. (Committed global warming simply means that even though we are not there yet, we are unavoidably committed to reaching some certain temperature level in the near future first because of what has happened in the past, but also what is happening now. Committed or "baked in" global warming occurs due to complex climate processes, including numerous climate system and climate subsystem momentums and inertias which are too complex to describe fully here, but are fully described in the new Climageddon book.) 

Deriving its foundation from points 1 and 2 (just above,) out of control global warming is a distinct new climate state created by the combination of:

a. increasing average global temperatures for as much as the next 30-50 years,

b. currently crossed and soon to be crossed additional key global warming tipping points,

c. the many global warming caused consequences of the climate system interacting among themselves and with biological, ecological and human (social, economic and political,) systems with increased severity, frequency, and scale, and,

d. the multiple self-reinforcing climate system and subsystem positive feedback loops that will continue occurring. (If you are not sure of what a positive feedback loop mentioned above is and why it will be so bad for your climate future, please take the time to explore this link.) 

At the minimum, the relative time frame for removing (sequestering) the carbon particles that we are currently adding to our atmosphere at about 3 ppm every year is centuries to thousands of years. This means that long, long after we stop polluting our atmosphere with carbon ppm from fossil fuels, the two carbon 500 ppm and 600 ppm near-extinction and extinction-level tipping points as well as many of the other 20 most deadly consequences related to those tipping points, will last for many, many generations.

Both we in the near future and future generations will suffer dearly for our failures to address and resolve this emergency now.

From all of the preceding facts on this page, you should now be able to clearly see that the truth behind why global warming is most likely already now out of our meaningful control for as much as the next 30-50 years. It is also because of:

a. all of the above prevents us from having the ability to either radically reduce our fossil fuel levels as now required and as described previously or, to radically reduce our average annual increase in atmospheric carbon (of about 3 carbon ppm per year,) and far more importantly, this then also results in...

b. our not being able to get our atmospheric carbon ppm levels back down anywhere close to the safe carbon 300 to 270 ppm levels where it has been for hundreds of thousands of years and, where our climate would re-stabilize at preindustrial levels and we would be safe and flourish once again.

And here's the biggest takeaway. Because we are most likely already out of meaningful control of global warming for as much as the next 30-50 years, we are now facing an imminent extinction threat and event. Imminent is the correct word because the processes leading to the extinction of humanity is already well underway and, as much as 70 to 90% of humanity will suffer and die within as little as the next 30 to 50 years, which is also well within the lifetimes of most people alive today.

From all of the above on this page, you can see that there is no escape. In every situation, the only way we save any part of a liveable future is to radically and immediately cut fossil fuel use to slow things down enough that we have time to prepare, migrate and adapt as well as possible so that some of humanity and civilization survives.

In all of the above-discussed scenarios, no matter what, we must do what we can and make the best of a horrible escalating emergency. We need to come together immediately and get our governments very busy in a mass global mobilization with what we still can do! 

If we fail to hit the 2025 reduction targets here is a bit of very dark "good news" that may also save a small portion of humanity

There is another dark and chaotic possibility for our future that would also allow a small portion of humanity to survive. If we do not successfully and immediately cut fossil fuel use by the radical 2025 percentages listed in this document, the other most probable way that we will finally and successfully radically reduce our fossil for use is through a massive die-off of about 70 to 90% of the human population before mid-century. If we do not make our 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets this will naturally occur and continue to escalate over the following 3-5 decades. As mentioned before, this will occur naturally because of massive crop failures, starvation, and the other economic, social and political conflict, breakdown and chaos.

As billions die of starvation, or in desperate migration and resource wars or because of the accelerating worst consequences of global warming and its tipping points, fossil fuel use will drop radically simply because there will be far, far fewer humans using fossil fuel. This is what may be the dark "last resort solution” that hopefully saves a small portion of humanity and civilization in the end if we do not radically reduce fossil fuel usage ourselves and if we somehow manage the threat of nuclear reactors and biological and chemical weapons being unsecured in the failed states of the unsafe global warming zones.

But even if this happens because we fail to radically reduce our fossil fuel use to the required 2025 targets, it will still take centuries to thousands of years before the average global temperature and the planet recovers from what we have already done to it! Any unlucky survivors will be living a nightmare of higher temperatures, extreme weather, and chains of other consequences we can barely envision just from what we have already done to our atmosphere.

What else needs to happen to save your future and the future of humanity and our civilization?

As you can see from the first atmospheric carbon ppm graph on this page, we are not making anything even close to the required radical cuts in our fossil fuel use to reduce the carbon going into our atmosphere. To make the necessary fossil fuel use cuts, all global carbon emissions would have to be cut as is presented in these 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.

Those are the real fossil fuel use needed reduction numbers and not the grossly miscalculated and misleading reduction numbers better forwarded by the IPCC and most governments of the world. 

We are not making anything even close to these levels of mass extinction prevention fossil fuel cuts! 

If you're a pragmatist, because of the many reasons above we may not be able to stop escalating global warming for at least another 30-50 years, this also means we will not be able to prevent massive global temperature increases, horrendous climate calamities, and the near extinction or complete extinction of humanity far sooner than imagined.

This means that we may have already passed the point of being able to control rising global warming as well as all of its related unavoidable and unthinkable consequences for as much as another 30-50 years unless we can immediately radically cut our fossil fuel use by 2025 and the required percentages described previously on this page. But can we really make those life-critical cuts in time?

If your pragmatist, you will most likely believe that it is highly improbable we will ever make the critically needed cuts to our fossil fuel usage by 2025 to save ourselves. There are several reasons you may be correct.

One is that each year we continue to delay in making the needed 2025 radical fossil fuel usage cuts means that any future cuts will need to be even more extreme, which makes them even less likely to be done because of the even more severe hardships and costs that they will impose globally.

As mentioned previously in the reasons above, another major reason it is unlikely we will make the needed radical fossil fuel cuts soon enough to save ourselves is because of what is called Garrett's Global Warming Dilemma. This research states that because of the immutable laws of physics and mathematics, almost all of our fossil fuel-based global economy must first collapse in what will naturally become, a steep but necessary global recession or global depression in order to produce the required cuts in our fossil fuel use to save humanity in time. And, if the world economy collapses to the level that is necessary to hit our 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets, it is estimated that as much of 50% of the world's population will die of starvation because modern agriculture will collapse without fossil fuels for fertilizer and to power its machinery.

This well-documented climate research is the research most often ignored by environmental groups around the world because it produces a horrible dilemma for which either answer is unthinkable as well as un-sellable to members and donors. Because of this fossil fuel reduction dilemma, and because there is little organized and effective public or political will to create a severe, but absolutely necessary global recession or depression to radically reduce fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 targets, most environmental groups hide this essential and critical research away and ignore it like dirty laundry. (If you're a science person, please click here and read a summary of Prof. Garrett's alarming research on atmospheric carbon, global warming, and the necessary fossil fuel reductions we must make to save the future.) 

Because of all of the preceding on "why global warming is out of our meaningful control for at least another 30-50 years factors," it is hard to imagine that fossil fuels use will ever be reduced to anything close to the critical 2025 target levels needed, until as mentioned before we are faced with truly massive global financial losses, collapsing governments and billions dead and suffering! 

If you are a pragmatist and a mature adult, at this point you realize that for all intents and purposes, we have already "baked in" everything needed to cross the carbon 500 ppm point! You have also probably realized that we have only the tiniest of chances for not crossing the 600 carbon ppm level over the next 50-60 years.

Is there a message conflict on this page?

At times it may sound like our global warming message is conflicted, but it is not. We are truly at our last chance to turn things around, and the odds that we will do so are weighted VERY heavily against us. We do not sugarcoat or hide the fact from you that it is going to be extremely challenging to achieve the last chance 2025 reduction targets.

It easily can be considered highly probable that we will not make the necessary global fossil fuel reductions in time. We will once again do too little too late or, self deceive ourselves once again just like we have done for the last 35 years.

We have given you the good, bad and the ugly truths about our global warming extinction emergency because we know that it is important for you to have all of the information to evaluate for yourself in order to make the best possible choices for you and your loved ones.

In spite of the unbelievable mess, we find ourselves in, you can rely upon the fact that we are always working for the best possible outcome (making the immediate radical 2025 global fossil fuel cuts required,) while at the same time preparing for the worst possible outcome (preparing to save and salvage whatever we can of humanity and civilization in case it all goes terribly bad which, unfortunately, now appears more likely than not.)

Working for the best possible outcome while also preparing for the worst possible outcome is not a conflict, but a highly rational and optimized way of managing known and imminent risk and threat.

For example, once we have done what is necessary to logically prepare for the worst possible outcome with a backup plan, (Part 1 of the Job One Plan,) we then forget about all of our emergency preparations and focus ALL of our energies upon working for the best possible outcome --- making the 2025 radical fossil fuel reductions in time to prevent the extinction of most if not all of humanity OR, at worst and at least, slowing escalating global warming down enough so that more people can live longer more comfortably (Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)

This preparation for the worst practice is not much different than what you are told before every airline flight in case there's a sudden change in altitude. You are told to always first put on your own oxygen mask before putting your children's masks. This way at least someone is still able to function at the minimum required level to save and salvage the children.

Similarly, we ask the same of you. Get prepared for what is coming so you too can help us by focusing all your energies on meeting the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.

Even if we don't hit our 2025 reduction targets, our message never loses sight of the truth that the more and faster we radically reduce global fossil fuel use, the more we can still slow and lessen both the unavoidable as well as avoidable global warming consequences and, more importantly, more people can live longer and more comfortable lives around the world.

Our message also never loses sight of the functional and practical truth that if we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, our odds of avoiding mass extinction within our lifetimes is unthinkably low to nonexistent.

There is a simple near-absolute equation of the highest possible human value that we never forget when forwarding our mission.

"The more and faster our global fossil fuel reduction reaches or closely approaches the 2025 global warming reduction targets, the more of us that will live longer at some near-acceptable level of normalcy and security, and vice versa."

Still Feeling Sad, Angry, or Anxious About Global Warming? Here is what to do.

Click this link and start feeling better.

 

We should be able to keep most of humanity from extinction by immediately enacting ALL of the critical actions described in part three of the Job One Plan. 

For information on the exact tipping points and consequences of the global warming extinction emergency, click here. 

For more information on the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, which we cannot miss, click here.

There are other very challenging reasons why we won't make the 2025 targets in time. These reasons involve different climate, human, and biological system inertias and momentums to complex to discuss in a short article. These additional reasons are found on other pages on the Joboneforhumanity.org website or in the new book Climageddon published by our non-profit organization. 

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How a movie story and an asteroid metaphor will help you understand the Climageddon Scenario and the massive climate change and global warming catastrophes that are coming... 

A very good metaphor and way to think about the 6 phases of the unfolding Climageddon Scenario (described below,) is to imagine numerous waves of larger and larger asteroids crashing into the earth over shorter and shorter periods of time between the next wave of asteroids. For the sake of the metaphor accuracy, imagine these waves of asteroids have already begun and will continue throughout 10-60 years. 

(Please see the illustration below which will provide a quick but necessary minimal overview of the many consequences of 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario for the sake of the asteroid story. The temperatures listed below in both Celsius and Fahrenheit are the predicted increases in average global temperature that will most probably occur at each of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario due to increasing global warming consequences.)

Now that you can see that temperatures (consequences,) will continue to rise at each new Climageddon Scenario phase, you are ready to continue with the asteroid story and metaphor.

At first, the asteroid waves are made of smaller asteroids and the waves will be farther apart. In the earlier asteroid waves, the asteroid impact consequences grow in a slower, gradual, and linear manner. In later waves, the asteroids grow larger and the waves now grow closer and closer together in time. Unfortunately, in the later larger waves, the asteroid consequences will grow faster and exponentially. 

Next, imagine that each new wave of the asteroids almost always hits the earth in the illustration below between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south (between the two yellow/mustard colored lines.)

These would be the most asteroid-unsafe areas to live in in the future.

And finally, imagine the last wave of “planet-killing” large asteroids also hit the earth between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south. 

To help you envision what will likely happen to society and your life during this unfolding asteroid cataclysm story and metaphor, it is useful to look to another story, the 1998 Hollywood science fiction disaster film called Deep Impact. This movie depicted humanity’s combined efforts to prepare for and destroy a 7-mile (11 km) wide planet-killer asteroid set to collide with Earth and cause a mass extinction. 

In this movie, to prevent the asteroid from reaching Earth, Russia and the United States send a spacecraft with nuclear weapons to destroy it before it reaches the critical minimal distance from Earth. The spaceship reaches the proper critical distance in time, but the nuclear weapons’ first attempt fails and instead splits the comet into two smaller masses, both still heading directly for Earth. 

After the U.S. President announces the failure to prevent the asteroid catastrophe, he declares martial law and reveals that in anticipation of this possible failure, governments worldwide have been secretly building underground shelters in what they believe will be the safest areas to ride out the impact. The U.S. government then conducts an emergency lottery and randomly selects 800,000 Americans under age 50. The government has also chosen 200,000 secretly pre-selected individuals to also enter the survival shelters bypassing the lottery. Not surprisingly, they are top government officials, top military brass, key scientists, and powerful corporate elites.

Around the world, the lucky and the pre-selected few go to the underground shelters, which also contain seeds for every species of plant, important viable animals, as well as massive food supplies for the would-be shelter survivors.

The first asteroid mass impacts Cape Hatteras in the Atlantic Ocean, causing a tsunami up to 3,500 feet (1,100 meters) high. The second mass is due to impact western Canada, creating a cloud of dust that will block out the sun for two years, killing all unsheltered life on Earth in a matter of weeks. 

At the last minute, the damaged spacecraft carrying the remaining nuclear weapons hits the larger second mass in a suicide mission, breaking it up so that most of it burns up in the atmosphere or misses the planet completely.

After the survivors finally come out of their shelters, the President speaks to a large crowd, telling them they've been blessed with a second chance to call Earth their home...

Here's what's important about this story and metaphor in relation to its similarities to the unfolding Climageddon Scenario. In the preceding metaphor and story, the most obvious parallels to the escalating global warming emergency and the Climageddon Scenario are: 

1. Just as they are in the asteroid wave metaphor, our global warming consequences will come faster and faster and grow larger and larger with each new phase of the six Climageddon Scenario phases. (Worse yet, in the mid to later phases of the Climageddon Scenario our consequences (which you will be reading about soon,) will begin growing exponentially.)

2. As we move through the six phases of the Climageddon Scenario there will be many of the other unthinkable consequences that occur within our social, economic, and political systems just as in the movie when humanity faces its end. Some of those are rare and noble sacrifices, others widespread panic, chaos, looting, crime, cruelty, and loss of basic human rights.

2 As global warming consequences continue to worsen in the later phases of the Climageddon Scenario, governments will be forced to declare martial law, and there will be lotteries and secret pre-selection and quotas for who still will be able to move to the global warming safer zones near or above the 45th parallel north or near or below the 45th parallel south to escape the chaos occurring within that middle highest danger zone a little longer. 

3. If we keep going as we are now without radically reducing global fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 global fossil fuel reductions targets and we somehow survive the coming global warming consequences, most of humanity will die and there will have to be a massive, difficult, and costly rebuilding of civilization by the few remaining survivors if there are any survivors. 

As you continue to think about the many kinds of facts in the Climageddon Scenario article, please keep in mind the Deep Impact end-of-the-world asteroid movie story because its unfolding process is a good metaphor for how the Climageddon Scenario’s most serious consequences will also grow worse, closer and closer, and faster and faster over time. Also, please don't forget we still do have a last chance for humanity and civilization to survive, but only if we successfully reach the challenging 2025 global fossil fuel reductions targets.

Who most needs to understand how the Climageddon Scenario Extinction Countdown unfolds

Understanding the rapidly unfolding progression of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Countdown scenario is critical for every individual, business, or nation that wants to thrive or survive over the next 5, 10, 20, 30 or more years and takes planning for their or financial, physical and political future security seriously. 

Understanding the Climageddon Scenario is crucial information for anyone involved in:

1. personal, financial or security short or mid- to long-range planning,
   
   
2. city, corporate, or national mid- to long-range planning, 
   
   
3. the threat, hazard, and business or insurance risk assessment, and
4. planning, financing, or building mid- to long-term infrastructures such as highways, water treatment or sewage plants, power plants, power transfer stations, power lines, hospitals, government buildings, manufacturing facilities, distribution centers, military bases, corporate headquarters, real estate developments, and telecommunications facilities. 

Assigning accurate risk evaluation levels to each the 6 phases of the Climageddon extinction scenario

To help you put into perspective the serious implications of the consequences unfolding at each level of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario, we use three recognized risk, threat, and hazard alert scales.

Those three risk evaluation scales are:

1. The Torino Impact Hazard 0-10 Scale used to quantify the many risks and hazards of asteroids of different sizes hitting the earth.

2. The DEFCON 5-1 levels used by the U.S. government and military regarding preparedness for nuclear or conventional war. And,

3. The current US Homeland Security Advisory System. 

Here are the three risk analysis and how they are used to rate the six phases of the Climageddon Scenario:

1. The Torino Impact Hazard 0-10 Scale used to quantify the many risks and hazards of asteroids of different sizes hitting the earth. (The Torino Scale goes from 0 to 10, where a 0 rating is no hazard or threat and a 10 is “a collision is certain, capable of causing a global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean.”)

There is a good reason to use the Torino Impact Hazard Scale with the Climageddon Scenario. Depending upon what phase of the scenario we enter, how we adapt to the threat may be uncannily similar to how we might adapt to survive impacts of ever-increasing asteroid sizes hitting the earth in repeated waves.

For example, if we knew well in advance that a small, survivable asteroid would hit the earth, using the Torino scale threat level 3 advisories could provide enough time to relocate almost everyone from the local hazardous area of impact. If a larger but still survivable asteroid were to hit, once again using the Torino scale threat level 4 advisory, we could have time to relocate almost everyone from the larger regional area of impact.

Similar to these asteroid impact scenarios, as the escalating global warming emergency continues through the 6 Climageddon Scenario phases, it will also eventually force us to relocate first millions, then billions of people. We will relocate them first locally, then regionally, nationally, and eventually internationally to the far north or far south. But, we may be able to move only as much of the total human population as can survive in the poorer soils and shorter growing seasons of the northernmost and southernmost countries of the world (above the 45th parallel north to Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, Alaska, Iceland, and Greenland, etc), and also below the 45th parallel south like some areas on the south island of New Zealand or at the tip of South America.

2. The DEFCON 5-1 levels used by the U.S. government and military regarding preparedness for nuclear or conventional war. (The DEFCON rating system goes from 5 to 1. DEFCON 5 is normal peacetime military readiness, and 1 is the highest military alert, such as imminent nuclear war. As the climate continues to destabilize, at some point the nations of the world will have to declare emergency regulations and martial law to deal with the escalating crisis and the internal and external instability it creates. Using this scale is appropriate because if left unchecked, global warming will parallel and eventually exceed the destructiveness of all non-nuclear world wars.)

3. The current US Homeland Security Advisory System. (The Homeland Security Advisory System is a color-coded terrorism threat advisory scale. The different levels trigger specific actions by federal agencies and state and local governments, and they affect the level of security at some airports and other public facilities. Although this is a terrorist threat risk system, it is also useful for climate crises. In the mid-to-late phases of the Climageddon Scenario, as our political, economic, and social systems break down, the nations of the world will react similarly to how they would react to a high-level terrorist threat or an actual attack. Martial law and other restrictive emergency measures with curfews, new regulations, loss of civil rights, and normal legal protections will be enacted.)

Here is additional key information to help you better understand the global warming future consequences and timetables using the 6 Phases of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown as a model 

In the following detailed descriptions, warning signs, and consequence countdown timetables for the Climageddon Scenario's 6 phases, you will learn what you need to know to protect your family, finances, business, and nation. But, to get the most out of what you are about to read and to plan your global warming safer future if you have not done so already, you will need to have a good basic understanding of the dynamics of global warming. If you don't, be sure to click the following links basic and illustrated global warming education articles as needed.

a. what global warming is and how it works,

b. what are global warming's 20 worst consequences,

In order to have the necessary understanding of how global warming tipping points will throw our shared future into turmoil and chaos, we also strongly recommend that you have read these pages as well:

c. the four extinction-evoking global warming tipping points, and

d. the 11 key global warming tipping points. This will help you better understand how global warming's 11 major tipping points create climate and human system crashes and collapses, (This article covers the basics of positive feedback loops, complex adaptive systems, systems theory, and things like nonlinear consequence responses common after tipping points are crossed.) 

Although you will be able to understand much of the Climageddon Scenario without reading and understanding the four links above, it will be more difficult for you to see how most of the consequences within each of the 6 Climageddon phases will synergetically multiply, accelerate and amplify each other and produce the very scary reality of the following Climageddon Extinction Scenario six phases.

We have made the inherently very complex Climageddon 6 phase extinction model as simple as possible with lots of additional illustrations as you will soon see, but if you do not understand the basics of global warming listed in a-d above, you may not see the seriousness of what is already happening or, it will be difficult for you to see how the following layers and levels of the phase-by-phase Climageddon consequences fit together to create a mass extinction event which will occur within our lifetimes if we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by plus or minus 5 percent. 

And finally, here are some important technical details relating to the Climageddon Scenario extinction model:

1. The timeframes and costs for the various global warming consequences described below for the six phases of the Climageddon Scenario are based on the best available science as well as compensatory calculations and projections for underestimated or politicized official global warming reports as well as "cooked" calculations for non-existent carbon capture technology and the missing additional calculations due to the absence of almost all tipping point calculations in official global warming reports. (See the links in this paragraph for detailed descriptions for these compensatory calculations.)

2. There is no doubt that critics may find some minor areas where they can say this or that prediction is off by a few percent due to some new research. Still, that minor detail does not and will not outweigh the overwhelming body of global warming knowledge or facts fairly presented in the Climageddon Scenario extinction model. Climageddon convincingly demonstrates that humanity faces a high probability of mass extinction within 3-5 decades if we fail to reach the necessary global fossil fuel reductions.

3. Please keep in mind that the temperature, carbon ppm, and loss or cost levels for each of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario described below are not hard and rigid boundaries. They may and will be updated by future research. So far, new research has supported the details of the Climageddon Scenario research and, in some places, has shown several of its predictions to be too conservative.

4. ll temperature amounts in this document (or any other document on our website) are always displayed as the Celsius or Fahrenheit increase from preindustrial average global temperatures. 

5. The severity, frequency, and scale of the many consequences listed below will not always occur in a steadily increasing linear line, curve, or pattern. There will be intermittent periods of relatively stable levels of consequences and EVEN periods of lessening consequences before the next phase and wave of consequences continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale to the next level.

6. The beginning and ending boundaries for each phase of the 6 Climageddon Scenario phases are approximate for temperature, time frame, and carbon ppm levels. As such, there will be some inherent overlap in temperature, timetable, and carbon parts per million (ppm) levels between the different scenario phases. 

7. In the Climageddon temperature and time illustrations, CS Phase stands for another one of the six Climageddon Scenario phases.

8. There will be many warning signs and timetables to take in on the Climageddon Scenario phases below, but don't worry. If you can't remember or process all of the details, the summary, charts, and illustrations near the end of the Climageddon Scenario will simplify and summarize the critical information described within its six phases.)

9. The Climageddon Scenario was first explained in the 2017 book Climageddon. The new Climageddon Scenario version 2.0 which you are about to read, contains major upgrades and additions based upon new research studies and analysis that has occurred since 2017.

Here are the 6 phases of the Climageddon Countdown Extinction Scenario 

The next section describes the 6 phases of the Climageddon Countdown Extinction Scenario in phase by phase detail. It also contains many more illustrations and charts (like the one below) as well as decade-by-decade global warming consequence information that was difficult and expensive for our organization to acquire. This detailed year-by-year information is invaluable is to any individual, business, or nation attempting to plan for how the escalating global warming emergency will directly affect their future life quality, finances, and security. 

Climageddon Scenario Phase 1, From 2020 until as soon as 2026-2032:

The temperature continues to rise, catastrophes increase, and carbon hits 400-450 ppm!

Phase 1 is the beginning of catastrophic climate destabilization. Phase 1 is associated with a measurement of atmospheric carbon in the range of 400-450 ppm. As of May 2020, we were already at about carbon 415 ppm. 

(If you do not already understand why the atmospheric CO2 carbon graph (above) will be the best indicator of what your future will be like, click here and look down the page until you see another graphic illustration.)

In Phase 1, the atmospheric carbon ppm rate continues to increase each year at only about 3 ppm per year. The average global temperature continues to go up in a continuous but hopefully only in linear degree-by-degree manner.

In this phase, the many global warming consequences continue increasing in frequency, severity, and scale (area covered,) but once again in a linear manner. In Phase 1, the cost of significant single-instance, global warming-influenced disasters will average in the $30-$100 billion range.

The early stage of phase 1

In the early stage of Phase 1 (from carbon 407-425 ppm,) which we are in now and will be in until about 2024-2025, temperatures will increase beyond the estimated current 1.2° Celsius^[1] (about 2.2° Fahrenheit) rise. They will eventually increase our average global temperature by about 1.7°-2.2° Celsius (3°-4° Fahrenheit.)

“[The] ...atmospheric greenhouse gas levels (~400ppm CO2 and ~485 CO2e [carbon dioxide equivalent]) are likely the highest in the last 15 million years, and never previously experienced by humans. The current conditions, if maintained over centuries/millennia (that is until the system reaches equilibrium), would likely produce temperature increases of +3-6° Celsius and sea levels 25–40 meters higher, based on evidence of past climates.”  —David Spratt, “Climate Reality Check”^[2]

If the average global temperature in Phase 1 continues to rise degree-by-degree, even without crossing any more points of no return or global warming, climate, human, and biological system tipping points, the bad news is we still likely and quite easily bring about the end-of-humanity scenario as described in the later phases of the Climageddon Scenario. Please keep in mind that just the small average global temperature increase we have had thus far is already causing millions of people to become climagees and migrate toward the more northern countries in Europen and North America.

Please also note that early phase 1 could end as early as 2026 if fossil fuel burning goes up considerably and/or we cross additional key global warming tipping points.

The later stage of phase 1, the first and most important climate cliff

(Special note for the carbon 425-450 ppm climate cliff tipping point. This section contains the key reasons why we have only about 6 years left to slow down the coming mass extinction event and our crossing of the two most dangerous global warming tipping points described further below. Additionally, only by reaching or coming very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets do we have any reasonable chance of preventing an even worse, total extinction event from ending humanity and civilization. As you read about the three major global warming tipping points below, our current extreme extinction threat will become more real to you. )

In the later stage of Phase 1, if we continue only up to carbon 425-450 ppm, in about 16 years or less (about 2022-2032) we can expect an eventual increase in average global temperature of about 2.2°-2.7° Celsius (4°-4.9° Fahrenheit), and millions of more people will be forced to either migrate or die. 

When we cross the very dangerous carbon 425 ppm climate cliff and enter the very slippery slope of the later stage of phase one of the Climageddon Scenario to just before we hit carbon 450 ppm in early Phase 2, it is highly probable because of crossing more global warming tipping points, points of no return and positive feedback loops at these higher temperatures, we will have reached a key threshold transition point where we will continue near uncontrollably on this very slippery slope toward 3°, 4°, 5°, and 6° Celsius temperature increases (5.4°, 7.2°, 9°, and 10.8° Fahrenheit.) These temperatures levels would eventually lead to the extinction of most of humanity.

When we cross this carbon 425-450 ppm battle line and climate cliff, in addition to leading us to likely mass extinction in as little as the next 30 to 50 years, its consequences will also be irreversible for centuries to thousands of years. 

In essence, we cannot ever allow ourselves to enter into the later stage of phase one (carbon 425-450 ppm) of the Climageddon Scenario because we will almost certainly go over the climate cliff into the processes likely extinction. The only way to keep from crossing the carbon 425 to 450 ppm climate cliff is to radically and immediately and radically reduce fossil fuel usage by the correct amounts (which will soon be discussed.)

In order to prepare you for the shocking, REAL and correct fossil fuel reductions that must be made if we are going to save humanity from unimaginable loss, suffering, death, and likely extinction, it is first necessary to see just how poorly our previous fossil fuel reduction agreements and actions have fared since we were first notified about the global warming extinction danger by our scientists over 35 years ago. 

What has been hidden from you: 

1. We have actually increased fossil fuel use more this century than in the last two decades of the 20th century. To make this point alarmingly clear, more than half of all fossil fuel emissions that have been released in the last 25 years and parked in the atmosphere are more than was released in all of recorded history before 1990. 
2. Even though we have had over 20 international conferences on fossil fuel use reduction, and we had international treaties since at least 1993 pledging we would reduce global warming, worldwide we still are about 67% higher in carbon emissions than the early 1990s. (Atmospheric carbon emissions is probably the best way to measure future global warming.)
3. In 2018 carbon emissions increased another dramatic 2.7% and they are projected to increase once again in 2019.

Yes, intentionally or through ignorance, our governments, the media, and most of the world's environmental groups have not been telling us the REAL facts about how what our REAL lack of any progress whatsoever in reducing the rate of fossil fuel use increases, much less the complete absence of any substantive reductions anywhere across the world in reducing atmospheric carbon.

Keeping the preceding horrific failure of any appreciable efforts to take seriously fossil fuel reductions, or even reducing the rates of increases, now please explore the REAL fossil fuel reductions that must be made to save our future. (If you don't believe we are telling you the facts about our dismal failure in reducing global warming over the last 35 years, click here to view a short video by climate Professor Kevin Anderson in a recent presentation to the Oxford University Climate Society.)

(If you do not understand or are uncertain about how fossil fuel emissions of carbon in the atmosphere create global warming, please click here for a set of simple illustrations and then continue reading... 

What must now be done to correctly reduce our fossil fuel usage and save humanity and our future

The absolute minimum total fossil fuel reductions that must occur to prevent the likelihood of our going extinct within the next few decades are:

1. All industrially developed nations must reduce their total fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025 and then continue reducing fossil fuel use to net-zero carbon emissions by 2035. Net-zero carbon emissions in this solution means that no additional fossil fuel emissions are going into the atmosphere that is not also being simultaneously removed from the atmosphere by natural means. (Only about 20 countries produce 70% or more of the world's carbon emissions.)

Think of developed nations like most members of the G 20 group; Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, and India. (See technical note 1 near the end of this page for why China and India had to be included in the list of developed countries.) 

2. All developing nations must maintain their total fossil fuel emission levels as they are at the beginning of 2019 and not allow them to go any higher. Then by 2045, all developing nations must also be at net-zero carbon emissions. This allowance for developing nations to stay at the level they are now and gradually reduce down to net-zero carbon emissions by 2045 is part of an essential justice and equity equation. The developed nations created their wealth by producing the far greatest majority of all carbon emissions in the atmosphere today, thus causing almost all of our current global warming extinction emergency. (See technical note 2 near the end of this page for more about justice and equity allowances.)

(Please click here for all of the related information and qualifying factors relating to the above targets for developing and developed nations listed above.)

As mentioned previously, the steadily rising temperatures of Climageddon's Phase 1 will feed and accelerate the processes of crossing more points of no return, positive feedback loops and global warming, climate, human, and biological system tipping points pushing us ever closer to dangerous carbon 425 to 450 ppm range. The probability of maintaining only a gradually increasing average global temperature without random tipping point-related temperature spikes is highly unlikely (less than 10-20%.) This is because as the temperature goes up the probability of crossing more tipping points goes up as well.

It is important to keep in mind that as we continue crossing more global warming tipping points, the 20 worst global warming consequences and the consequences of the tipping points themselves will of themselves continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale. This is because:

1. The points of no return before a tipping point is crossed as well as the crossed tipping point itself, create "slippery" conditions where it becomes far easier for that condition or consequence to worsen far more quickly and at a far steeper gradient.
2. tipping points when crossed create sudden and extremely difficult to recover from steep drop-offs or complete system crashes,
3. any positive feedback loop contained within the tipping point processes will also significantly amplify either the positive or negative consequences of that tipping point, and 
4. a crossed tipping point within a system or subsystem tends to push other tipping points over their tipping points in the subsystems or systems associated with or interconnected to the original tipping point.

In the later stage of Phase 1, (as well as all of the other 5 phases below,) unless we make the required radical global fossil fuel reductions described above, it is also unlikely that:

1. we will be able to maintain the previous average annual increase of only carbon 3 ppm. (In part it will probably go higher because of the Earth's population soaring to 9 billion, causing our estimated energy needs to skyrocket by 40% as more of the world’s population enters into the middle class.) And, most importantly

2. because of our fossil fuel burning momentum and human system inertias, once we hit the 425 to 450 carbon PPM range we will not be able to keep from rapidly sliding down a much steeper and very slippery slope into and through the other following Climageddon Scenario phases. 

At the 425 to 450 carbon ppm range, there will be so much climate system momentum from previously committed carbon and other greenhouse gas pollution of our atmosphere towards moving quickly to even higher temperatures, that stopping this momentum will be like trying to stop a gigantic boulder from rolling faster and faster down a hill that keeps getting steeper and steeper.

The terrifying thought that is completely real and critical for you to burn into your brain is that as much as 70 to 90% of humanity will suffer and die in as little as 30-50 years, but our ability to have any real or meaningful control over this looming emergency ends around about 2025 when we enter the carbon 425-450 ppm range. But this will only occur if we fail to successfully execute global fossil fuel reductions described above.

And in case you're still thinking technology will save us at the last minute, no new carbon removal technologies (that we call magical carbon sucking unicorns,) will be able to save us in time because even those who believe they might save us are projecting that they will not even be available at the earliest until sometime after 2050. This will be long after the damage is done and long after anything can be done for the billions of people who will suffer and die!

Because of the preceding, we have no other rational alternative other than to prevent ever crossing into this highly dangerous transitional carbon 425-450 ppm range and tipping point, at which our current rate of greenhouse gas pollution will begin sometime around 2025. 

Do you still have doubts if the 425 to 450 carbon ppm range safe? Here is some other research that while we feel that it still suffers from politicizing underestimation errors and lack of factoring in the crossing of any tipping points, it is still worth reviewing so you know it is not just us warning you how bad this threshold is.  

Click here to learn more about how another 10 climate scientists view the serious dangers of crossing the 425 to 450 carbon ppm range.

“The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: Key Findings on Climate Change” summarizes predictions by climate scientists’ models: we have a 50% chance of stabilizing the average global temperature at a 2°C increase over the pre-industrial period if we keep concentrations of CO₂ under 450 ppm. A November 2013 report by PwC, Busting the carbon Budget, says that at our current rate of fossil fuel usage in the global economy, we will exceed that limit by 2034.

The probability of crossing from Phase 1 below carbon 425 ppm into Phase 2 over 425 ppm is inevitable because of the many factors described above and because of the 13 reasons described near the top of the following link, Is global warming out of our meaningful control for at least the next 30-50+ years?

The warning signs of phase 1 2026-2032

The following listing of positive feedback loops, points of no return, tipping points, consequences, and interactions with our other current global challenges should be considered as good early warning signs we are both in phase 1 or moving rapidly through phase 1 into phase 2. Watch for information about these warning signs, consequences, and events occurring in the news.

Particularly watch to see if they're being described as worse than before or as breaking all previous records. Look carefully at what the consequence pattern and trend is moving toward. T

The following are the best objective warning signs that individuals can see for themselves and that will motivate thoughtful individuals to act appropriately:

Phase 1: The most probable initial positive feedback loops, points of no return, and tipping points to occur or be crossed in order of likely priority are as follows:

1. Decreased albedo from reduced snow cover and melting Arctic ice increasing the earth's heat,

2. Increased sea ice and glacier melt resulting in additional sea-level rise,

3. Increased atmospheric water vapor increases resulting in more extreme weather,

4. increased permafrost and tundra heating releasing more methane and which results in more heat and more disease epidemics and possible pandemics. This once again speeds up the whole process of more positive feedback loops and crossing more points of no return and tipping points. 

Please also note that melting permafrost in the tundra is because the northernmost areas are warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. This permafrost melting also has the potential to cause local and global pandemics caused by ancient viruses and bacteria being released from the permafrost. Already in Siberia they have had localized anthrax and smallpox outbreaks because of the decomposition of ancient frozen animals from the melting permafrost and tundra which residents either had no immunity to or who were not prepared to deal with these outbreaks due to lack of available vaccines. 

(Click here to learn more about each item listed above.)

The most likely major tipping point to be crossed and worsen sometime in phase 1

There is am extinction-evoking tipping point area that is the most likely first candidate to significantly accelerate the beginning of the end of humanity. It is the increased melting of summer and year-round arctic polar ice due to global warming.

It will truly have profound effects not only on worldwide weather but more importantly, on lowering global crop yields and increasing global crop failures. It will cause an accelerating massive global starvation, which will then also destabilize national economics, politics, and society.

In the summer, when Arctic ice melts there is less cooling of all of the growing season areas affected anywhere by arctic weather. The more polar ice melts each year the less cooling and the more heat in and during these critical growing season areas. 

To make matters worse, food crops are more sensitive to heat when there are droughts and, they are more sensitive to heat, rain bombs, and cold spells when they are just beginning to grow. Unfortunately, because more ice is melting in the Arctic ocean almost every summer and staying melted longer in the year we are losing more and more critical cooling for our absolutely vital food crop growing season. 

The five major food grains are the largest source of the world's food supply. They are corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, and sorghum.

All of these grains have upper and lower temperature limits. Most of them cannot survive more than 10 days during their growing season over 100° Fahrenheit particularly, if this heat comes early in their growing season or when their soils are drought dry.  

Because of the continually increasing loss of the cooling effect on growing regions below the Arctic because of the continually diminishing Arctic ice, the number of growing season days with temperatures over 100° will continue increasing steadily as more and more Arctic ice melts and remains melted longer throughout the year.

Because melting Arctic ice also affects and disrupts the jet stream and ocean currents like the Gulf Stream, you will also have radical and unseasonable cold spells appearing during the prime crop growing seasons around the world. This will also reduce food yields and produce more crop failures during the fragile growing season.

This means that the world is going to continue to experience more and larger crop reductions and failures as more polar ice melts and stays melted longer. To make matters even worse, corn is one of the largest food staples for humanity and it is also one of the most sensitive crops to increasing 100 degrees plus temperatures and drought.

The following is from Wikipedia:

“Since 1979, the minimum annual area of sea ice in the Arctic has dropped by about 40%, as measured each September. From sea ice models and recent satellite images, it can be expected that a sea ice-free summer will come before 2020. Models that best match historical trends project a nearly ice-free Arctic in the summer by the 2030s. However, these models do tend to underestimate the rate of sea ice loss since 2007.” (If you would like to see a video of how more polar ice is melting each summer as the years go by click here for this NASA video.)

The increasing melting of arctic polar ice is a clear warning sign of increasing global warming and future serious reductions in major future crop yields as well as serious increases in future crop failures. This means not only higher prices but ever-increasing food scarcity and increasing global starvation.

This is not something far-off in the future. It is already happening in many areas of the world.

It is also already causing major migrations. This expanding and increasing polar ice melting is a major “canary in the coal mine” for increasing future mass starvation not way off in 2100 as we have been told but in the near years and new few decades to follow.

Already in the growing belt of the United States, we are seeing increased and record-breaking heat, droughts, rain bombs, and other extreme seasonal weather that is having a direct effect in reducing crop yields and crop failures in the most vulnerable areas. This pattern of greater crop yield reductions and crop failures will continue to increase as long as more polar ice disappears and the Arctic remains relatively ice-free into longer and longer summers. As the process of massive crop reductions and failures expand and continues, mass starvation will begin to destabilize all of our other economic, social, and political systems. 

Additionally, reduced polar ice also reduces the albedo effect, which simply is that white snow or ice reflects heat back away from the earth and out into the atmosphere keeping the earth cooler. As more Arctic polar ice is melted the darker polar oceans absorb the heat, and then heat up more, which once again, causes more global warming.

If temperatures continue rising, the time frames in which we will be crossing more of the tipping points listed above will get shorter. But that will not be the only significant effect of melting Arctic ice due to global warming. Paradoxically, according to new studies, because of melting Arctic ice we will also have more extreme cold and heavier snows during the US winters. 

In general, increased crop yield reductions and crop failures will increasingly occur in each of the following Climageddon Scenario phases because of arctic ice melt, increased heat, increased droughts, increase cold spells and increased extreme weather storms that will make it more and more impossible for modern agriculture and the major food crops to survive throughout their current growing seasons. There are estimates that crop yield reductions and crop failures will average 5 to 10% or more for each degree that the average global temperature rises until the planet becomes so warm that far too many days of the growing season will be at 100° or more. This will make successfully growing the world's major grains all but impossible.

Phase 1: The following complete list of phase 1 global warming consequences will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale from 2020-2032.

The complete list of global warming-related consequences that will occur and continue to increase in this phase from continuing to burn fossil fuels at anything close to the rates we are now are:

1. atmospheric heating which increases average global temperature,

2. new disease outbreaks, epidemics, and more COVID-19 like pandemics in areas where they have never been before. (This is due to loss of natural animal habitat, eating more wild animals, additional melting of the permafrost, overcrowding, less resilient health systems, and mass migrations. Because of accelerating global warming consequences, we could be experiencing COVID-19 type pandemics every decade.)

3. shrinking sea ice and ice shelves, glaciers and snowpack,

4. crop failures increasing mass starvation, and soaring food prices,

5. extreme storms of all kinds, (hurricanes, tornadoes, rain bombs, bomb cyclones, etc,)

6. droughts,

7. clean drinking water scarcity,

8. desertification,

9. fires and wildfires,

10. flooding,

11. toxic air pollution,

12. ocean acidification, (which causes critical sea life and reefs to die. Ocean heating and ocean acidification from carbon from global warming will eventually kill off much of the oceans' oxygen-producing plankton. These plankton are responsible for as much as 50% of all oxygen produced on the planet.) )

13. loss of biodiversity,

14. jet stream disruption,

15. mass human migrations,

16 animal and insect migrations, 

17. Tsunamis and earthquakes, and 

18. economic losses. (In this phase, most nations will spend 1-3 percent of their total gross domestic product (GDP) directly or indirectly paying for the consequences of the global warming emergency.)

In one way or another, directly or indirectly as the above list of heat-driven global warming consequences increase in severity, frequency, and scale the following things occur:

1. the human capacity to work or produce as before goes down,

2. repair costs and losses go up,

3. less food is available from crops and fish stocks,

4. food prices rise,

5. more people starve,

6. there are more migrations of starving people,

7. there are more conflicts and wars,

8. more economies and nations collapse, and

9. deaths continue to increase.

(Click here to learn more of the technical details about how each of the previous global warming consequences will increase in severity, frequency, and scale with each progressive Climageddon phase.) 

Phase 1: From 2020-2032, there will be continual critical reactions of global warming consequences with our other global challenges (listed below,) which will cross-intensify and worsen many of the global warming consequences of this phase as well as our other global challenges themselves.

Here are the other non-global warming challenges to our global society that will both interact with each other and likely continue to worsen in this phase of the Climageddon Scenario:

Global Challenge 1: Resolving the current COVID-19 global pandemic. Directly and indirectly, the current COVID-19 pandemic is due in significant part to the loss of natural wild animal habitat caused by global warming and other man-made causes such as eating more wild and not domesticated animals, the exploding and hungry world populations crowding into urban areas, and the overall deterioration of global health services. 

If a vaccine is ever found, the COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to go on around the world until mid to late 2021 or even into early 2022 before everyone is vaccinated. If no vaccine is found, like what has happened with AIDS and other viruses over the last 30 years, we will be living with the effects of COVID-19 until a “herd immunity” is developed (if that immunity is even applicable to this virus. A global herd immunity could take as many a 3-7 years to develop.) 

Global Challenge 2: increasing global economic instabilities that are leading to regularly reoccurring global and national recessions or depressions over shorter and shorter time periods. (These recessions and depressions are fueled by existing economic weaknesses, lack of financial reserves, huge national deficits, low financial system resilience, and major unexpected shocks or events (like COVID-19,) hitting the global markets and global financial systems.

COVID-19 is predicted to create a global financial recession or depression that could last until late 2022 or until 2025 or as long as 2030. (Ten years for recovery from a COVID-19 global recession or depression is not that long when you consider that ten years is the time it took to recover from the 2008 global banking and housing meltdown and recession.)

Global Challenge 3: an ever-rising over-population, (the Earth has the carrying capacity for about 1 1/2 - 2 billion people. Currently, we are near 8 billion people adding about 130 million additional people each year racing to 9.8 billion by or before 2050. (About 50 million people a year normally die.)

We are way over sustainable population levels already! Future and current generations will suffer unthinkable catastrophes because, as a species, we failed to manage the size of our global population to match the carrying capacity of our global environment and the Earth's available resources.

Please note that as the global population continues to rise, the additional population serves to further amplify and multiply the most harmful consequences of almost all the other global challenges and consequences listed on this page.) One could easily say that overpopulation and its inherent over-consumption beyond our carrying capacity is also a major cause behind today's global warming emergency. (Please click this carrying capacity link to learn more about why this rapidly rising overpopulation challenge is so dangerous.)

Global Challenge 4: rising global resource depletion (aka overshoot) caused by overpopulation, toxic pollution of water, lands, and air, crop failures, overfishing, topsoil loss, resource distribution injustice, and the massive “overconsumption and waste” of the Earth's finite resources. Global resource depletion will significantly increase food shortages and cause soaring food prices leading to more starvation and mass migrations. For example, the following are estimates of when only a few of our critical global resources will be depleted; freshwater 12 years (2032), fish stocks almost totally gone by 2050, adequate topsoil for crop growing gone by 2070. (See this page to see 90 percent of fish stock already overfished and to see charts on how this loss will throw much of the world into starvation.)

There are also many other critical mineral and non-mineral resources that will also run out soon, click here for more about these.

If you still do not believe that massive resource depletion and overshoot is a huge soon-arriving problem? Watch this fantastic overshoot video with great graphics and global resource depletion amounts and time frames in simple illustrations by Hugh Montgomery, a noted English professor. (We strongly recommend you watch this video for all of the food and non-food resources that are in accelerating depletion peril. [Forward the video to the 10 minutes and 30-second mark to begin watching Hugh Montgomery's compelling graphic presentation.])

Global Challenge 5: escalating pollution of all kinds. Ongoing and accelerating pollution kills crops, fish stocks, and poisons our air, water, and soil creating and accelerating all types of global health, social, and economic problems. 

Global Challenge 6: loss of biodiversity (due to ongoing and accelerating loss of natural habitat due to overpopulation, global warming, pollution, overuse, etc.)

Global Challenge 7: growing economic inequality, injustice, hunger and poverty. Today less than 1% of the world's population owns more than 50% of all wealth. Over for the last several decades, this ownership percentage continues to grow in favor of the wealthy.

Growing economic inequality and poverty always increase food shortages and often cause food prices to soar leading once again to mass starvation and mass migrations. This year (2020,) 130 million people are lacking adequate food and could starve to death. COVID-19 is expected to double that number of the next few years. Over the following decades, global warming consequences will raise that number into the hundreds of millions eventually rising well past a billion.) 

Global Challenge 8: escalating regional and international terrorism, conflicts, and war. While COVID-19 has temporarily slowed some regional and national conflicts, expect these conflicts to increase in intensity, frequency, and scale once COVID-19 is brought under control. The world still faces all of the other global challenges on this page getting worse and being mostly unresolved. Global nuclear war is still a very real threat as all of the challenges on this page get worse.

Global Challenge 9: Escalating mass migrations, political and economic instability, increasing terrorism, conflicts, and war plus global warming and many of the other listed global challenges on this page will both create and expand sudden, massive migrations of millions then billions of people. During this phase, as the listed global challenges on this page intensify, various stronger governments will order precautionary evacuations to limit casualties and losses from their most vulnerable areas. Before 2030 because of global warming alone, the world will see hundreds of millions of climagees (climate refugees.)

Global Challenge 10: new COVID-19 like pandemics could reoccur every decade as well as other new and old disease epidemics. This is due to global warming melting of the permafrost, loss of natural animal habitat, eating more wild animals, overcrowding, less resilient health systems, mass migrations, wars and conflicts, and many of the other challenges and consequences listed on this page.

Because of accelerating global warming emergency, more COVID-19 type global pandemics could come as often as every decade. The AIDS virus became widespread in the late 1970’s, the SARS virus in 2003, the MERS virus in 2012, and the Ebola virus in 2013. Click here for exactly how escalating global warming may begin producing COVID-19 like pandemics every decade. 

Global Challenge 11: political instability and collapsing governments. Fueled by existing internal and external conflicts, soaring deficits, and the intensifying global challenges listed on this page, poorly managed nations with weak economies and low existing resilience will fall first. In 2020 we already see numerous countries on the verge of economic or political collapse. As the increased stresses of these listed global challenges continue to increase upon already weakened nations, more nations will steadily collapse. 

Global Challenge 12: Failing to evolve effective global governance with the needed legislative, judicial, and enforceable executive powers to solve global challenges that cross national borders. If you think about it carefully, you will discover that this global challenge (and critical evolutionary failure,) of having no unified or truly effective global governance, IS one of the single biggest reasons and core structural causes for why most of our other global challenges have not yet been resolved or, continue to exist. The evolutionary absence of effective global governance alone acts to facilitate, escalate, or enable almost all of the other global challenges that we currently face.

What happens when you mix everything above together in Phase 1?

When you are thinking about the interacting collective and individual impacts of the above, you must also consider their direct and indirect impacts upon human social, economic and political systems and the tipping points within those unique human systems. For example, as we continue to experience more of the multiplying, amplifying and magnifying consequences mentioned above that will also increase in frequency, severity, and scale, we will also begin to experience more random human system crashes and collapses which have previously occurred when severe stresses arise within our social, economic and political human systems. This will then eventually push these human systems ever closer toward or over their own internal tipping points.

For example, as crops fail from Arctic Sea ice loss, droughts, rain bombs, extreme storms, cold spells, and extreme temperatures, food prices will skyrocket. Populations will eventually riot before they starve to death and then as more people die or struggle not to die, law and order will break down. Eventually, the weaker countries will collapse under the ever-increasing weight of these rising internal economic political and social climate-related catastrophes and resource conflicts.

What also will begin to happen as we leave Phase 1 and enter Phase 2 is that nuclear reactors, toxic chemical manufacturing plants and any chemical or biological weapons stockpiles in the weakest nations will become more vulnerable to accidental meltdown, release or theft as the governments of weaker nations no longer have the resources or manpower to keep these critical sites secure and operational.

As the world's weakest nations collapse from the mounting global warming, our other global challenges, they will create more and more desperate climagees (climate refugees in the millions.) As this rising migration seeks to enter the stronger and safer nations, the stronger nations will also begin to experience local and regional breakdowns in law and order as they experience greater and greater stresses upon their own economic, social and political systems as they too simultaneously struggle with most of the same consequences.

Here is An Illustrated Quick Overview of the Climageddon Climate Change and Global Warming Extinction Scenario Processes 

At this point, an illustration will help simplify the many things you have just read. The Climageddon extinction scenario process illustrated below will help you understand global warming's many levels of processes and interactions as a holistic gestalt.

A gestalt in holism is the idea that the properties and processes of natural systems and subsystems should also be viewed as having synergetic processes and as an interconnected and unified whole, not simply as collections of, or summations of, separate and individual non-inter-dependent or inter-connected parts or actions.

Review the following Climageddon Scenario illustration starting from the bottom up! Starting from the bottom, this illustration reflects the unfolding natural progression of ever-worsening and interacting consequences and tipping point processes that will occur as global warming continues to escalate pushing us toward our extinction.

The top of the illustration below shows you the later phase Climageddon Scenario consequences. The bottom shows you the earlier consequences. For now just get a general idea of all the global warming consequences, tipping points, and human system factors will be interacting and colliding as well as amplifying and multiplying each other as the Climageddon extinction scenario unfolds in phases and waves. (Full explanations of each tipping point and consequence are found here, the 11 key global warming tipping points and, here the 20 worst global warming consequences.)

Remember to review this illustration from the bottom up beginning with the heating of global warming escalating!

About the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown as a whole system

As you can see from the illustration above, the Climageddon Scenario is far more than just a summary listing of the individual global warming consequences and tipping points. In the above illustrated intertwined unfolding phases and interactions, it becomes easier to see the continually heat-intensified individual consequences and tipping points churning into something far more dangerous than just the individual summation of these things.

Collectively, all of these moving consequences and interactions of our global warming emergency synergize with each other at various levels and accelerate the intensity and speed of the more deadly later stages of the Climageddon extinction scenario. When you begin to see the Climageddon extinction scenario model as an integrated climate, human, and biological super-system, you will discover:

1. new critical relationships and processes occurring between the climate, human, and biological systems,
   
   
2. new qualifying and conditioning climate, human, and biological contexts, and finally,
   
   
3. new phase-by-phase interactions and magnifying transformations of the interconnected and interdependent climate, human, and biological system consequences that will both suddenly and dramatically worsen our lives.

To help you get this "big picture" synergetic consequence interaction perspective, you will find many illustrations like the one above showing the major tipping points and other global warming consequences colliding with our financial, social, and political systems. 

"Because of its, scores of variables, complexity and constantly evolving and emerging new tipping points and synergies, one of the hardest things to grasp about the Climageddon extinction prediction model is that it is a unique viewing gestalt for our probable future relating to almost every level of our current existence." Lawrence Wollersheim

Phase 1 Risk and threat ratings:

As described earlier, for each Climageddon phase, three different risk ratings are provided. Here are the risk ratings for phase 1:

Phase 1 Torino impact rating:

Torino rating 8: The threat is highly certain for localized and regional destruction. Attention by public and governmental contingency planning is merited if the events are less than 3 decades away. Click here and go to the section of the page called Action Plan Section 2 near the bottom of the page to learn what the governments must start doing immediately.

Phase 1 US military DEFCON rating:

DEFCON 4, described as increased intelligence gathering and security measures.

Phase 1 US Homeland Security risk rating:

Orange: High risk.

Congratulations! You have finished Phase 1 of the Climageddon Scenario. There are 5 more well-illustrated and soon-arriving Climageddon Scenario phases to review where, unfortunately, things get even worse as global warming worsens.

Because the Climageddon Scenario is already unfolding, please do not forget that if we do reach the last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by plus or minus 5 percent, we will avoid the worst consequences of the Climageddon Scenario and mass extinction! Life over the millennia always seems to find a way to solve its previous mass extinction challenges!

To help prevent the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario from unfolding there exists a deadline-prioritized, effective action plan to ensure we do not trigger the later mass extinction phases. Click here for a brief overview of this plan.

If you get discouraged reading the many consequences of the Climageddon Scenario, please go to this Surprise Benefits of Global Warming page, which is the most-read page on our website.

Click here for the Climageddon Scenario Phase 2, beginning as soon as 2032-2050

The information and illustrations of the detailed consequences, costs, and timetables for phase 2, as well as for each of the other 4 Climageddon Scenario, phases are contained on this next page.

This next page is normally only found in our member's only section, which we have made temporarily viewable to the general public. Much of this recently updated consequences, costs, and timetable information that you are reading in the 6 phases are not found in the Climageddon book.

If the consequence, costs, and timetable link above is not working in the paragraph above, use the following to get to this additional Climageddon Scenario phase 2-6 information:

If you are a member and you are logged in, click the Members link on the top menu bar on the far right side of the page. Then click the link called Climageddon Scenario Consequence Timetables.

If you are not already a member, you also can see this critical information and the rest of this Climagageddon Scenario document by becoming a member by clicking here.)

Our Members Only section of the website contains much information like the following. We recommend that you click Members link at the top of the page and see what else is available.

Please keep in mind that the global warming disaster costs in the chart above are only for single disasters during phases 1-4. In phase 5 you see the total cost to the world.

The not-for-profit Job One for Humanity organization is primarily a place focused on educating individuals and businesses on how to both survive and thrive through the soon-coming climate change and global warming catastrophes. Our Job One for humanity Plan will also show you how to reduce global warming.

If you do not understand the basics of what global warming (aka climate change,) is or how it works, we strongly advise you click here first to view some basic illustrations that explain it. If you are not familiar with the 20 major and worst consequences of global warming we strongly recommend you review this page first as it will deepen your understanding of how the global warming tipping points can interact with these other climate change and global warming consequences to create a global warming mass human, animal, and biological extinction scenario [aka the climate extinction emergency, Holocene extinction, sixth mass extinction event, climate crisis, climate emergency, run-away global warming,] within our lifetimes.

While reading this article please also keep in mind that to help you process the following uncomfortable news, at the end of this article, we have provided some great news! You will find a capable, self-directed plan for what you can do how to resolve the global warming emergency while we still have the time to do so.

Introduction

"You cannot be called an alarmist if there really is something to be alarmed about." Unknown

While you are learning about key global warming tipping points, it is critically important to understand that no compensatory calculations for the effects of any global warming tipping points being crossed were ever included in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC,) calculations for precisely how much we have to reduce our global fossil fuel use to save ourselves from extinction. This is important because the IPCC's global fossil fuel reduction calculations are currently being used by all of the member governments of the United Nations (about 190 countries,) for setting their own internal national fossil fuel reduction programs.

This horrific failure to include crossing any global warming tipping points in our current global and national fossil fuel reduction calculations is also true for the world's most recent 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. As you will soon discover this omission of including proper calculations for crossing global warming tipping points as the world continues to warm is the recipe for mutually assured destruction.

Yes, this failure to include allowance calculations for crossed tipping points also means that the national fossil fuel reduction programs of every member of the United Nations using the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement targets is also based on incomplete and inaccurate calculations. In other words, our current global fossil fuel reduction calculations are based on the inconceivable belief that "everything will work perfectly within our rapidly warming climate systems all of the time and we will never crossing any key global warming tipping points." Unfortunately, the immutable laws of mathematics and physics also do not work that way, particularly as we simultaneously continue to add massively more carbon and methane to our atmosphere each year. 

We all know how "everything always goes perfectly as planned all of the time" so, there's nothing really to worry about here or, is there? As you explore the key global warming tipping points described below the shocking meaning to your future wellbeing of our government's not including crossing any global warming tipping points in their calculations for how much we have to reduce our global and national fossil fuel use to prevent extinction will become much clearer to you...

Why global warming tipping points are important to your future:

• If we can determine where the global warming tipping points are, we can better predict system collapses and future catastrophes and prepare for them, as well as locate other interconnected tipping points.
  
  
• Tipping points can create highly dangerous positive feedback loops. Positive feedback loops—endless, self-reinforcing cycles can speed a global warming process so much that it will jump from a gradual, linear progression to a very steep, exponential progression or a falling off a cliff progression or complete system collapse which can lead to mass human extinction within our lifetimes.
• The global warming tipping point information disclosed below presents a grave extinction threat for humanity as well as animal and biological species.

What is a global warming tipping point?

Tipping points do not occur only within the climate. They can and will occur in almost any area of life, causing large and unexpected changes. Knowing when they're coming is essential if you do not want to be blindsided by catastrophic global warming consequences.

This document contains everything you need to know about global-warming-related tipping points. Because of the complexity of tipping points and their initiating processes, this document may be more challenging, but you do not have to understand everything about tipping points perfectly!.

By the time you finish this, you will have gleaned enough about the critical and dangerous role of global warming tipping points to understand their high potential impacts both on your present day-to-day life and your future. To make this document a bit more manageable, the most complex science has been placed just before the end along with a humorous 11-minute animation link to help you visualize important tipping points and principles.

Although this page is science-filled, it is essential reading to understand the depth of our current global warming emergency and the Climageddon Extinction Scenario global warming prediction model.

The simple definition of a global warming tipping point is:

The point where some process or new stimulus causes a sudden and significant change in the status of the ongoing process or system, causing it to jump from one state to a new, significantly different state. This sudden change is not only significant; it is often extreme!

As an example of a sudden and significant change, imagine a wine glass tipping over and going from the state of being full to empty. After the wine glass tipping point has been passed, a transition to a new state quickly occurs.

Like the falling of the wine glass, tipping points can often lead to the sudden collapse of a process. If you think about a tipping point on a graph causing a steep slope change, you will understand why knowing when tipping points will occur is so important. (See the Tipping Points Have Points of No Return graph below for what a tipping point does to the slope of a graph line.)

Tipping points are often also irreversible, comparable to wine spilling from the glass. No matter how hard you try, standing up the wine glass will not put the wine back into it. Similarly, many global warming tipping points are also irreversible or almost irreversible in any time frame relative to a human lifespan!

For example, the West Antarctic ice shelf appears to have passed its tipping point and is now in an irreversible melting process. Once escalating global warming is finally ended, it may take tens of thousands of years to restore that ice shelf—if it ever could even happen.

Points of no return

Before a tipping point is reached, there is another key milestone in the process. It is the point of irreversible process momentum toward that tipping point, or what is commonly known as the point of no return. In simple mechanical systems like in the wine glass example, the point of no return can occur very close to the actual tipping point. Even though the point of no return may be close to its tipping point, the two are separate parts of the tipping point process.

In complex climate, human, biological or geological systems, the point of no return can occur long before the actual tipping point. This is because global warming and our climate are complex adaptive systems. The developmental processes that eventually trigger a tipping point usually involve many factors and many processes beyond a single mechanical balance point or a simple mechanical falling process as in the wine glass spilling example. (If you're curious, at the end of this document you will find a section that provides more information about the complex qualities and nature of complex adaptive systems).

In the wine glass example, the point of no return is the moment of directional motion and momentum where the forward-falling glass is no longer able to teeter backward and maintain or return to its original upright position and stability. In the wine glass tipping scenario, the point of no return is quite visible. Once it falls past this last balancing point of still reversible direction and momentum and crosses its point of no return, it can no longer stop itself from falling further and crossing the wine glass’s last balancing point, thus irreversibly tipping and spilling the wine out of the glass.

By contrast, global warming points of no return tend to be largely invisible—i.e., irreversible fates are set in motion before we know they are happening. However, if you can determine the point of no return for any global warming tipping point, you can “buy” yourself critical forecasting capabilities that can give you some warning for approximately when that tipping point will be crossed. Being aware of global warming process points of no return will be extremely useful in preparing for and predicting global warming tipping points and catastrophes.

"Tipping points are so dangerous because if you pass them, the climate is out of humanity's control: if an ice sheet disintegrates and starts to slide into the ocean there's nothing we can do about that." —James Hansen

Contrary to what many people believe, tipping points are not just rare high-impact events. Knowing global warming, climate, human and biological tipping points as well as how and when they will occur will be the key to creating all future planning as global warming escalates, and our global climate continues to destabilize.

The 11 major climate change and global warming tipping points within the climate, human, and biological systems

There are many global warming system and subsystem tipping points within the climate, human, and biological systems. The key process that directly or indirectly causes the global warming tipping points to be crossed is increasing heat, as is implied in the term global warming.

When global warming tipping points are crossed, one or more of them can trigger processes leading to:

• sudden large-scale catastrophes in climate, human, and biological systems,
  
  
• irreversible global warming,
  
  
• irreversible climate destabilization, and/or
  
  
• extinction-level climate destabilization.

The major global warming tipping points (other than increasing temperature,) within the interacting climate, human, and biological systems are:

1. The total amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Water vapor is the gaseous state of water. It is the most important natural greenhouse gas. When it condenses onto a surface, a net warming occurs on that surface. In the atmosphere, water vapor increases as heat increases. Increased heat evaporates more water from oceans, lakes, and rivers, which creates more water vapor and heat in an endless self-reinforcing cycle—another positive feedback loop. At some point, this positive feedback loop triggers a tipping point, and the process goes from a gradual linear heat producing progression into a steeper exponential progression. The result is that the average global temperature increases even faster. Humans cannot survive if the air is too moist and hot, which would happen for the majority of human populations if global temperatures rise by 11–12 °C, as land masses warm faster than the global average.
2. The total amount of melting ice. Increased heat melts more sea ice, ice shelves, and glaciers, resulting in more water flowing into our oceans and increasing sea levels. This process repeats with each increase in temperature in an endless, self-reinforcing cycle—a positive feedback loop. At some point, this positive feedback loop triggers a tipping point, and the increased heat and ice melting process can go from a gradual linear progression (1, 2, 3 ,4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) to a far steeper exponential progression (2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1,024, 2,048, 4,096, 8,192, 16,384).
   
   
3. The albedo effect. The whiteness of polar ice reflects heat away from the planet. This is called the albedo effect. As the polar ice melts, significant areas darken and therefore absorb more heat rather than reflecting it outward. At some point in this melting process, a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop occurs, which again reduces the albedo effect’s total heat-reflecting capabilities. This in turn further increases global warming. As before, this self-reinforcing cycle of loss of reflectivity and increasing heat will eventually move from a gradual linear progression to a steep exponential heat increasing progression.
   
   
4. The release of methane from the warming of polar permafrost and tundra. As the temperature continues to increase, a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop triggers a permafrost and tundra methane release tipping point, leading eventually to the exponential progression mentioned before. This could be a very critical tipping point because methane produces 20 to 100 times the heat-creating effect in the atmosphere as compared to carbon dioxide. This increased methane within our atmosphere will also remain there from three years to decades before it decays back into simple carbon. To emphasize how dangerous this is for our future, in February 2013, scientists using radiometric dating techniques on Russian cave formations to measure melting rates warned that a 1.5° Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit) global rise in temperature compared to pre-industrial levels was enough to start a general permafrost melt. (From David Spratt’s Climate Reality Check). We are almost at 1.5° Celsius right now, and even higher temperatures are inevitable. Please also note that melting permafrost in tundra also has the potential to cause local and global pandemics caused by ancient viruses and bacteria being released from the permafrost. Already in Siberia, they have had anthrax and smallpox outbreaks because of melting permafrost and tundra.
   
   
5. The die-offs of carbon-eating and oxygen-producing sea plankton because of the warming, carbonization, and acidification of the oceans. As this continues to intensify, it also creates a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop, which triggers a tipping point, and the die-off process goes from a gradual linear progression into a steeper exponential progression. This results in sudden and rapidly increasing die-offs in the ocean fish populations that live on this plankton, as well as sudden and rapidly increasing drop-offs in the ocean’s oxygen-producing capabilities. (Oxygen-producing plankton are critical to our future. They produce 50% - 80% of the world’s total oxygen supply).
   
   
6. The ever-increasing atmospheric heat captured and stored by the oceans and sent to lower levels of the ocean. These captured and stored masses of deep warm water can suddenly rise to the surface again. This will release a massive amount of additional heat directly into the atmosphere and quickly spike the average global temperature.
   
   
7. The loss of the atmospheric carbon-eating forests because of heat, drought, wildfires, and timber-harvesting or agriculture-related clearcutting. As temperatures rise and droughts, heat, forest fires, and clearcutting kill trees, we lose our essential carbon-eating forests, which increases the carbon and heat in the atmosphere. This process eventually triggers a tipping point and the forests’ loss of carbon-eating capabilities goes from a gradual linear progression into a steep exponential progression of forest loss and escalating carbon in the atmosphere. This results in a sudden additional spike upward in average global temperature.
8. Soils that normally absorb carbon begin releasing it back into the atmosphere from their previously-stored or inherent carbon because of the escalating heat. This increasing heat-induced release of carbon by the soils creates a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop. This triggers a soil carbon release tipping point and the process goes into a more exponential progression. This also results in a rapid increase in average global temperature.
9. The changes in major ocean currents that help to stabilize our weather and seasons. Research is now expanding on how increasing heat will affect currents like the North Atlantic current. Because of global warming, if the North Atlantic current were slowed down or diverted from its presently established pathway, it would create very significant changes in weather patterns, which would affect growing seasons, rain, snowfall, and temperature—all of which have strong effects on vital crop yields.
10. The global warming-caused pandemic potential. When ancient ice, glaciers, permafrost, or frozen tundra melts, it releases still-living bacteria and viruses never seen before. This means we could soon be unleashing the ultimate global pandemic. So many different types of new bacteria and viruses could be released at once that even our best scientists would not be able to create and distribute the vaccines needed in time to contain disease outbreaks or a growing global pandemic.
11. Total weight of rising seas and melting ice shifting. Although research is sparse in this area, it has been posited that the total massive weight change from all ice melt areas (where ice covers land masses) as well as the heating, expanding, and shifting weight effect on seas caused by global warming can move existing tectonic plates. This plate motion could cause earthquakes and volcanic eruptions at an unprecedented scale. If the shifting of these tectonic plates causes numerous or massive volcanic eruptions around the planet, we could also go into a volcanic winter. If the shifting of tectonic plates triggers a supervolcano-like eruption, the years that the sun would be blocked could kill off most of the human population.

There are many other known and unknown tipping points in both climate and biological systems not mentioned above. The 11 above are only the ones that are the most important and the ones we know the most about.

When you are thinking about the collective and individual impacts of the above 11 tipping points, you must also add in their impact on human social, economic and political systems and the tipping points within those unique systems. For example, as we continue to cross more of the 11 tipping points mentioned above, we will first experience the severe system crashes which normally occur when the tipping point is crossed and then our social, economic, and political human systems will begin experiencing extreme stress. This will then also push them over there own internal tipping points.

One way this could happen is as follows. As crops fail from droughts, rain bombs, and extreme temperatures, food prices will skyrocket, populations will riot and then, law and order will break down as more people die. Eventually, the weaker countries will collapse under the weight of these internal climate catastrophes and resource conflicts.

Next, as the weaker nations collapse they will create more desperate climagees (climate migrants rushing into the stronger nations.) As this happens, the strongest nations will also experience a breakdown in law and order, and, in the later phases of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario, they too will experience a complete social and political breakdown.

Why understanding global warming tipping points is critical to your future

To demonstrate why understanding tipping points is so important, it is necessary to also understand the many dangers found within the complex interactions, processes, and consequences of the global warming tipping points. When you understand these additional dangers, you will also understand how the phases of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario build upon each other.

Overview of the biggest dangers of global warming tipping points:

1. Exponential expansion: Once a tipping point is crossed, its consequences will cease progressing in a steady, gradual, and linear way (1, 2. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) and will typically shift into a steep, nonlinear, exponential progression (2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024). Notably, one of the hardest things for individuals to do is visualize real-life scenarios of the difference in results between a linear and an exponential progression. Using the sample above, in just the 10 linear steps, the last linear progression number noted is 10. That is about 100 times less than the last and 10th step of the above sample exponential
   
   
2. Crossed tipping points create more crossed tipping points: As the average global temperature continues to rise, we will cross more of the global warming tipping points. When any interconnected or interdependent global warming tipping point within the system or subsystems is crossed, it makes it significantly more likely that more tipping points will inevitably also be crossed in other interconnected or interdependent systems or subsystems. Once this domino-like process starts, we could eventually cross many of the global warming tipping points. (See the lighted match Keystone Tipping Point illustration below).
   
   
3. Colliding multiple tipping points can accelerate us into the last phases of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario: Colliding crossed multiple tipping points means that each tipping point’s vulnerability is also subject to the powerful triggering influence of other crossed tipping points. Tipping points crashing into other interconnected or interdependent areas can quickly trigger other tipping points, creating a cascading meltdown across both climate and human system tipping points. Crossing more global warming tipping points may collectively be enough to throw us into irreversible climate destabilization or even extinction-level climate destabilization. (See Climageddon Extinction Scenario.)
   
   
4. Crossed global warming tipping points will accelerate the crossing of vulnerable human and biological system tipping points: Crossed global warming tipping points within the numerous global warming climate systems or subsystems can also unpredictably collide back and forth to create a system-wide, cascading chain reaction of numerous self-reinforcing positive feedback loops. Once this cascading meltdown process begins, crossing more tipping points occurs at a faster and faster rate and it will eventually accelerate crossing over into our many vulnerable human and biological system tipping points (economy, politics, society, war, and conflict, etc.).
   
   
5. Quick collapse and slow recovery: The greatest dangers of crossing tipping points are that they can suddenly cause severe, unpredictable, and irreversible changes, even complete system collapses. In most cases, if the system or subsystem crashes or collapses, recovery from these crashes or collapses is very slow and difficult, if not impossible!
   
   If recovery is possible, not only will it be slow and difficult, but there is also a much higher likelihood that it will not be adequate to restore the original stability, range, or level of the collapsed system (or subsystem). This difficult recovery leads instead to some new stability range—a level that will likely be significantly different. After we cross one or more tipping points, this could mean that when our temperature eventually restabilizes, it could be at a range or level either unfriendly to life as we know it, or completely incompatible.
   
   
6. Crossed tipping points can have both linear cause-and-effect relationships as well as dangerous and currently unpredictable nonlinear cause-and-effect relationships. These nonlinear relationships can occur between global warming tipping points and human and biological system tipping points (economy, politics, mass species die-offs, war, and conflict) as well as within and between any other part of the climate system and its subsystems. The presence of counter-intuitive, nonlinear tipping point, and system relationships mean that causes and effects within the climate and global warming systems and subsystems are sometimes not logically connected, clear, or predictable. This means that within a complex adaptive system like global warming and the climate, an area that happens to be a part of its system or its subsystems can create an effect in some other completely different system or subsystem where there seems to be no apparent cause and effect relationship between the two systems or subsystems. The huge danger here is that if a global warming tipping point triggers a nonlinear reaction in another climate or human system or subsystem, we could quickly find ourselves caught in a catastrophic situation without ever being able to predict it or prepare for it.
   
   
   A complex adaptive system such as the climate reacts with its subsystems in both predictable and unpredictable ways. In the illustration above, an action X in system A causes the obvious linear effect Y in system B, but it can also cause a seemingly unconnected nonlinear XY reaction in system C. It is this nonlinear unpredictability in other interconnected and interdependent systems which also should cause us great concern as we add more fossil fuel carbon to the atmosphere.
   
   
7. Hidden points of no return can occur long before tipping points are crossed: A major factor working against the resolution of the global warming emergency is that with each degree of temperature increase, developmental momentum within the processes of that particular global warming area will push relevant tipping points toward their points of no return, which makes the crossing of such tipping points inevitable.
   

   In the case of global warming systems and subsystems, these points of no return are often hidden, sometimes occurring long before the actual tipping point is crossed. Generally, they are even less researched and understood. Unfortunately, if we want to avoid the global warming tipping points, we not only have to do more research on the actual tipping points, but we also have to do more research on these points of no return.

   A good example of the dangers of crossing any point of no return is found within the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent research has shown that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has already entered the irreversible collapse process. This was caused first by warmer water and, secondly, by the melting of its ice shelves from above and below because of warmer air temperatures.

   At some point, as the warmer water and the warmer air melted the massive ice sheet, the ice sheet’s point of no return was crossed. This then set up the final scenario leading to the tipping point of irreversible melting.

   This crossed tipping point is a huge problem because this particular ice sheet and its shelves contain enough ice to raise sea levels by another 10-13 feet (roughly 3-4 meters). Even worse, these ice sheets and shelves act as essential flying buttresses, keeping the rest of Antarctica’s massive ice stores locked on land instead of sliding off and melting into the sea and passing their own point of no return, which, if it occurred, would spike sea levels massively higher.

8. Invisible momentum and inertia factors: It's important to understand the technical meaning of momentum and inertia to understand their important relationship to global warming tipping points. In classical mechanics, momentum is the product of the mass and velocity of an object. For example, a heavy truck moving rapidly has momentum—it takes a large or prolonged force (generally an engine and fuel) to get the truck up to speed, and it also takes a large or prolonged force to bring it to a stop afterward (brakes). If the truck were lighter or moving more slowly, it would have less momentum and it would take less force to get it moving or to stop it.
   

   Inertia is defined as the resistance of any physical object to any change in its state of motion (this includes changes to its speed, direction, or state of rest). It is the tendency of objects to keep moving in a straight line at a constant velocity or to stay in the state they are in.

   Global warming tipping points can have inherent momentum and/or inertia factors within their processes. These two factors can cause either a time accelerator—pushing a process over a tipping point faster, or a time delay—helping to prevent a process from going over a tipping point.

   Including both momentum and inertia factors is critical to the accurate prediction of global warming, climate, human, and biological systems outcomes. For example, the momentum or inertia factors in global warming tipping points for ocean heat capture or release are regulated by atmospheric heat. Oceans take up and release atmospheric heat very slowly, and they pass that heat to deep ocean layers slowly. There is an inertia-related time lag due to that slow absorption rate. This is due to the ocean’s pre-existing water temperature. It also has inertia-related time lag as it seeks to maintain its current temperature by changing slowly.

   There is also a momentum factor for how the ocean eventually releases its previously captured atmospheric heat back into the atmosphere, which would once again spike average global temperatures. It appears that once deep warm water is released, it builds its own momentum, eventually rising to the surface and then quickly releasing its heat. Once a certain temperature or set of conditions is triggered, nothing will stop this inherent momentum from the rising of the warmer water from deep ocean layers.

9. Crossing multiple tipping points will lead to the later phases of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario. In addition to increasing unpredictability and leading us into the later phases of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario, crossing multiple tipping points can create a dramatic acceleration of consequence time frames. It will drastically increase the scale, severity, and frequency of the consequences within the related global warming systems and subsystems involved.
10. No compensatory calculations for the effects of any global warming tipping points being crossed were ever included in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC,) calculations for precisely how much we have to reduce our global fossil fuel use to save ourselves from extinction. This is important because the IPCC's global fossil fuel reduction calculations are currently being used by all of the member governments of the United Nations (about 190 countries,) for setting their own internal national fossil fuel reduction programs. This failure to include allowance calculations for crossed tipping points also means that the critical national fossil fuel reduction programs of every member of the United Nations using the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement targets is also based on incomplete and inaccurate calculations. This means we are using the wrong needed fossil fuel reduction calculations to save us from extinction within our lifetimes.

 

Now that you understand what the main tipping points are and their dangers to our future, there are other essential facts about tipping points important to know.

What is a keystone tipping point

There is a uniquely important type of tipping point relevant to global warming and the climate. It is called a keystone tipping point.

If you have seen a Roman architectural arch, you already know a little about what a keystone is. It is the central, usually triangular-shaped stone at the top center of the arch. It is also the critical supporting stone that holds all the other stones in place and maintains the integrity and strength of the arch.

If you pull a keystone out of a Roman arch, the whole arch immediately crumbles and completely falls in on itself. Like the keystone in the Roman arch, if we cross any keystone global warming tipping point, all dependent or interconnected global warming systems and subsystems can also begin collapsing faster than we can be prepared for or recover from. If we cross any currently unknown or known keystone tipping point, every projected time frame relating to global warming consequences would suddenly and radically change for the worse. Consequences that were predicted to be many decades away could now become just one or two decades away or less.

You're probably curious about which of the previously mentioned global warming tipping points are keystone tipping points. The difficult truth is that increasing heat itself, as well as all of the previously mentioned tipping points (except the pandemic tipping point caused by melting ice and permafrost), could become keystone tipping points. The painful truth is that if the conditions surrounding any global warming tipping point worsen enough, it could act as and become a keystone tipping point, which could ignite a cascading meltdown and triggering of multiple other tipping points, leading to sudden and catastrophic results.

A keystone tipping point will also be the most likely trigger and/or deepen the irreversible global warming process

Irreversible global warming (aka runaway climate change or the runaway greenhouse effect) is defined by its processes and what will happen after we cross any keystone tipping point (or we cross multiple important tipping points, which will cumulatively act like a keystone tipping point). The crossed irreversible global warming tipping point then causes the global climate to dramatically change—this is the climate destabilization process in action. But, keep in mind that irreversible climate destabilization and irreversible global warming are different things. Irreversible global warming can also be caused by many other factors working together as discussed here.

Warning signs that a tipping point may soon be crossed

Many times, just before a tipping point is crossed and crashes, it experiences a period of increasing oscillations, “flipping” more rapidly from one state to another. Not only does it oscillate from one state to another, but the severity of the oscillations also increases. Finally, the frequency of the oscillation swings also begins to accelerate in close time proximity.

We are already seeing these pre-tipping-point oscillation warnings occurring in our more frequent and severe weather swings over larger and larger areas—going from cold to warm, summer- to winter-like conditions, and from droughts to deluges. Whenever you see this type of intensified oscillation pattern occurring, whether it's in climate or biological systems or the stock market, it is the harbinger of big changes.

In general, the further up the local, regional, national, or global climate that climate, human, or biological systems or subsystems are:

1. oscillating,
   
   
2. tipping points are being crossed, or
   
   
3. extreme weather problems are expanding,

the more trouble we are in! If the global climate is oscillating more frequently and severely, we are in a lot more trouble than if it is only our local climate that is oscillating similarly. Additionally, smaller systems and subsystems will move to a state of chaos more readily than larger systems and subsystems due to smaller systems and subsystems usually having less inertia to resist the change.

Which global warming tipping points will most likely be crossed first

While it is difficult to set specific dates for crossing a tipping point, in general, the melting of sea and glacial ice around the world—particularly in the polar regions—appears to be the tipping point area of greatest immediacy and concern. There are a few key reasons for this:

• At the far north and far south, global warming has seen double the temperature increases as compared to increased temperatures elsewhere on the planet.
  
  
• Ice melting directly or indirectly links to other critical tipping points: the albedo effect, methane releases from melting permafrost and tundra, changes in ocean currents, deep and surface-level ocean temperature increases, die-offs in ocean life, and potential pandemics caused by ancient viruses and bacteria being released from the permafrost.

 

From the above list of tipping points, shrinking sea ice will cause massive ice shelves in Antarctica and Greenland (that are held in place by the surrounding sea ice,) to quickly slide off the land they sit on and into the sea. This could be one of the two biggest sudden shocker tipping points that hit us far harder than we are planning for regarding our rising sea level.

This is because melting sea ice (icebergs) already floating in the sea does not raise sea level. But on the other hand, massive ice shelves currently sitting on land in Antarctica and Greenland which then slides into the sea can raise sea levels far faster as well as far more than we are prepared for.

Several times in earth's history massive ice shelves have quickly slid off Greenland because the melted floating sea ice which had previously buttressed it up had melted. This sudden sliding of the ice shelf into the sea raised sea level by as much as 3-10 feet in as little as a decade or two. Imagine what would happen to any coastal cities in the world with sea level rising 3 to 10 feet in as little as a decade or two. What kind of economic, political, and social chaos would result from such a sudden sea-level rise across all of our global coastal areas?

Right now the sea ice surrounding many of the largest ice shelves in the world is melting at unprecedented rates. At just our current carbon levels, the stability of the bellwether West Antarctic ice sheet has already been breached and this ice loss is now irreversible. This rapidly melting West Antarctic ice sheet is an excellent example of another great global warming consequence evolving into a global warming tipping point that the world has hurdled past far faster than anyone had predicted or foreseen.

The most likely major tipping point to be crossed and worsen

There is a tipping point area that is the most likely first candidate to significantly accelerate the beginning of the end of humanity. It is the increased melting of summer and year-round arctic polar ice due to global warming.

It will truly have profound effects not only on worldwide weather but more importantly, on lowering global crop yields and increasing global crop failures. It will cause an accelerating massive global starvation, which will then also destabilize national economics, politics, and society.

In the summer, when Arctic ice melts there is less cooling of all of the growing season areas affected anywhere by arctic weather. The more polar ice melts each year the less cooling and the more heat in and during these critical growing season areas. 

To make matters worse, food crops are more sensitive to heat when there are droughts and, they are more sensitive to heat, rain bombs and cold spells when they are just beginning to grow. Unfortunately, because more ice is melting in the Arctic ocean almost every summer and staying melted longer in the year we are losing more and more critical cooling for our absolutely vital food crop growing season. 

The five major food grains are the largest source of the world's food supply. They are corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, and sorghum.

All of these grains have upper and lower temperature limits. Most of them cannot survive more than 10 days during their growing season over 100° Fahrenheit particularly, if this heat comes early in their growing season or when their soils are drought dry. 

Because of the continually increasing loss of the cooling effect on growing regions below the Arctic because of the continually diminishing Arctic ice, the number of growing season days with temperatures over 100° will continue increasing steadily as more and more Arctic ice melts and remains melted longer throughout the year.

This means that the world is going to experience more and larger crop reductions and failures as more polar ice melts and stays melted longer. To make matters even worse, corn is one of the largest food staples for humanity and it is also one of the most sensitive crops to increasing 100 degree plus temperatures and drought.

Reduced polar ice also reduces the albedo effect, which simply is that white snow or ice reflects heat back away from the earth and out into the atmosphere keeping the earth cooler. As more Arctic polar ice is melted the darker polar oceans absorbs the heat and then heats up more this once again, causes more global warming.

Already in the growing belt of the United States, we are seeing increased and record-breaking heat, droughts, rain bombs, and other extreme seasonal weather that is having a direct effect in reducing crop yields and crop failures in the most vulnerable areas. This pattern of greater crop yield reductions and crop failures will continue to increase as long as more polar ice disappears and the Arctic remains relatively ice-free into longer and longer summers. 

The following is from Wikipedia:

“Since 1979, the minimum annual area of sea ice in the Arctic has dropped by about 40%, as measured each September. From sea ice models and recent satellite images, it can be expected that a sea ice-free summer will come before 2020. Models that best match historical trends project a nearly ice-free Arctic in the summer by the 2030s. However, these models do tend to underestimate the rate of sea ice loss since 2007.” (If you would like to see a video of how more polar ice is melting each summer as the years go by click here for this NASA video.)

The increasing melting of arctic polar ice is a clear warning sign of increasing global warming and future serious reductions in major future crop yields as well as serious increases in future crop failures. This means not only higher prices but ever-increasing food scarcity and increasing global starvation.

This is not something far-off in the future. It is already happening in many areas of the world.

It is also already causing major migrations. This expanding and increasing polar ice melting is a major “canary in the coal mine” for increasing future mass starvation not way off in 2100 as we have been told but in the near years and new few decades to follow.

As the process of massive crop reductions and failures expand and continues, mass starvation will begin to destabilize all of our other economic, social, and political systems. In general, if temperatures continue rising, the time frames in which we will be crossing more of the tipping points listed above will get shorter. But that will not be the only significant effect of melting Arctic ice due to global warming.

Because melting Arctic ice also affects and disrupts the jet stream and ocean currents like the Gulf Stream, you will also have radical and unseasonable cold spells appearing during the prime crop growing seasons around the world. This will also reduce food yields and produce more crop failures during the fragile growing season. Paradoxically, according to new studies, you will also have more extreme cold and heavier snows during the US winters because of ongoing disruptions caused by the continual annual expanding melting of Arctic polar ice. 

Regarding the above two sections, this melting-ice-related cluster of interconnected and interdependent tipping points alone and of itself can usher in the end of humanity or hell on Earth. The next group of tipping points to monitor would be the total global water vapor levels and the carbon-releasing and carbon-eating condition of trees and soils. The last and slowest developing risk will be from increased earthquakes and volcanoes due to changing glacier-related weight over the Earth's tectonic plates.

More detailed time estimates on when we will cross more climate, human and biological systems tipping points will be found in the Climageddon Extinction Scenario by clicking here. Estimates for exactly when we will cross the many global warming tipping points will continuously evolve as new research is released.

In general, if temperatures continue rising, the time frames in which we will be crossing more tipping points will get shorter. (There is an easy way to educate yourself about this as new global warming research comes out that can and will affect you, your business, and nation. If you have not done so already, sign up for the Global Warming blog RSS feed by clicking here. By doing so, you will automatically receive a monthly email update with the latest news on national and international global warming reduction successes and losses.)

The carbon levels we should be most concerned about

Above and beyond keystone tipping points, there is another important danger level. It exists as a collection of crossed tipping points.

        "Monthly Keeling Curving CO2 Widget” courtesy of Show. Earth⁵⁶

A dangerous collective juncture of several crossed tipping points from different areas of the climate system interacting with each other is highly probable once we reach the carbon 425-450 ppm level. This danger level aligns with climate researcher James Hansen’s statements that even a carbon 450 ppm level (which will occur in about 10-15 years at present carbon pollution rates) would eventually correspond to an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century and the end of human civilization as we’ve come to know it.⁵⁷

Which other global warming tipping points are likely to be crossed in the near future

New research and evidence suggest that more systems and subsystems within the interconnected and interdependent climate system may be heading toward global warming tipping points or experiencing worrisome qualitative change toward their points of no return. These global warming-related climate systems include:

1. accelerating ice mass loss from Antarctic ice shelves and the vulnerability of East Antarctic glaciers;
   
   
2. the vulnerability of Arctic permafrost exemplified in part by the proliferation of Siberian methane craters;
   
   
3. declining carbon efficiency of the Amazon forests and other carbon sinks (oceans, soils etc;) and
   
   
4. the slowing of the major sea current known as the Atlantic conveyor, likely as a result of cumulative and significantly increased global warming.

In late 2015, a chilling report⁵⁸ released by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative warned that the 2015 Paris commitments from the IPCC conference:

“... will not prevent our ‘crossing into the zone of irreversible thresholds’ in our polar and mountain glacier regions, and that crossing these boundaries may result in processes that cannot be halted unless temperatures return to levels below pre-industrial.”

And in a similar vein, the Climate Reality Check stated:

“To put it most bluntly, only a new ‘Little Ice Age’ may re-establish some of today’s mountain glaciers and their reliable water resources for millions of people; or halt melting polar ice sheets that, once started, irrevocably would set the world on course to an ultimate sea-level rise of between 4–10 meters or more...some of these cryosphere thresholds, including potential fisheries and ecosystem loss from polar ocean acidification, cannot be reversed at all.” —From David Spratt’s Climate Reality Check.⁵⁹

Crossing more global warming tipping points is not going to happen far off in the future. It is happening right now!

How global warming tipping points are unfolding

What we do know is that:

1. We are already crossing important tipping points in the Arctic and Antarctic regions.
   
   
2. As we rapidly approach the carbon 425 to 450 ppm levels, crossing more tipping points and points of no return in global warming systems and subsystems is both inevitable and it will accelerate.
   
   
3. Unknowingly, we may have already crossed key global warming tipping points or points of no return.
   
   
4. In general, with each new global warming tipping point crossed, the momentum increases toward more global warming tipping points being crossed in other climate, human, and biological systems and subsystems. This is the reality of a dangerous tipping point momentum condition we are continuing to allow to happen at our extreme peril.

What we do not know:

1. At this time, no exact sequential order has been researched to show the order in which each global warming tipping point will be crossed other than what has been said previously on this page.
   
   
2. Which specific global warming tipping point will act as the keystone tipping point that will trigger many other tipping points, deepen other already out of control global warming process, and set off the critical end-of-the-world Climageddon Extinction Scenario last phases.

A special atmospheric carbon ppm zone that acts as a tipping point

Steadily rising temperatures will feed and accelerate the processes of crossing more points of no return, positive feedback loops and global warming, climate, human, and biological system tipping points pushing us ever closer to dangerous carbon 425 to 450 ppm range. This range is found in later phase 1 of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario.

The probability of maintaining only a gradually increasing average global temperature after reaching this carbon PPM range without random tipping point-related temperature spikes is highly unlikely (less than 10-20%.) This is because as the temperature goes up the probability of crossing more tipping points goes up as well.

It is important to keep in mind that as we continue crossing more global warming tipping points, the 20 worst global warming consequences and the consequences of the tipping points themselves will of themselves continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale. This is again in summary, because:

1. The points of no return before a tipping point is crossed as well as the crossed tipping point itself, create "slippery" conditions where it becomes far easier for that condition or consequence to worsen far more quickly and at a far steeper gradient.

2. tipping points when crossed create sudden and extremely difficult to recover from steep drop-offs or complete system crashes,

3. any positive feedback loop contained within the tipping point processes will also significantly amplify either the positive or negative consequences of that tipping point, and 

4. a crossed tipping point within a system or subsystem tends to push other tipping points over their tipping points in the subsystems or systems associated with or interconnected to the original tipping point.

Unless we make the required radical global fossil fuel reductions found here, it is also unlikely that:

1. we will be able to maintain the previous average annual increase of only carbon 3 ppm. (In part it will probably go higher because of the Earth's population soaring to 9 billion, causing our estimated energy needs to skyrocket by 40% as more of the world’s population enters into the middle class.) And, most importantly

2.) because of our fossil fuel burning momentum and human system inertias, once we hit the 425 to 450 carbon PPM range we will not be able to keep from rapidly sliding down a much steeper and even more slippery slope into and through the other 5 following Climageddon Extinction Scenario phases. 

At the 425 to 450 carbon ppm range, there will be so much climate system momentum from previously committed carbon and other greenhouse gas pollution of our atmosphere towards moving quickly to even higher temperatures, that stopping this momentum will be like trying to stop a gigantic boulder from rolling faster and faster down a hill that keeps getting steeper and steeper.

The terrifying thought that is completely real and critical for you to burn into your brain is that as much as 70 to 90% of humanity will suffer and die in as little as 30-50 years, but our ability to have any real or meaningful control over this looming emergency ends around about 2025 sometime after we enter the carbon 425-450 ppm range. But, this will only occur if we fail to successfully execute these global fossil fuel reductions. 

And in case you're still thinking technology will save us at the last minute, no new carbon removal technologies (that we call magical carbon sucking unicorns,) will be able to save us in time because even those who believe they might save us are projecting that they will not even be available at the earliest until sometime after 2050. This will be long after the damage is done and long after anything can be done for the billions of people who will suffer and die!

Because of the preceding, we have no other rational alternative other than to prevent ever crossing into this highly dangerous transitional carbon 425-450 ppm range and tipping point, at which our current rate of greenhouse gas pollution will begin sometime around 2025. 

Do you still have doubts if the 425 to 450 carbon ppm range safe? Here is some other research that while we feel that it still suffers from politicizing underestimation errors and lack of factoring in the crossing of any tipping points, it is still worth reviewing so you know it is not just us warning you how bad this threshold is.  

“The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: Key Findings on Climate Change” summarizes predictions by climate scientists’ models: we have a 50% chance of stabilizing the average global temperature at a 2°C increase over the pre-industrial period if we keep concentrations of CO₂ under 450 ppm. A November 2013 report by PwC, Busting the carbon Budget, says that at our current rate of fossil fuel usage in the global economy, we will exceed that limit by 2034.

Click here to learn more about how another 10 climate scientists view the serious dangers of crossing the 425 to 450 carbon ppm range.

Our exponential exposure and vulnerability as we cross more global warming tipping points

Crossing any global warming tipping point creates an extreme vulnerability and exposure because the danger is neither singular nor constant. It is not a singular threat because, at a minimum, many tipping points and points of no return reside within the climate, human, and biological systems and subsystems—any of which could be crossed and feedback into other interconnected systems or subsystems, triggering a cascading meltdown of more crossed global warming tipping points across more and more systems.

There is not just the threat of a single keystone tipping point. There are potentially many tipping points that, if collectively crossed, could act as a keystone tipping point and lead to the final phases of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario. Crossing tipping points is also not a linear steady threat. With each rising degree of average global temperature, the threat, vulnerability, and exposure boils and rises exponentially! See the boiling pot illustration below.

Our estimated risk level for going over more global warming tipping points

To better evaluate risk, let’s first put the scope and intensity of the irreversible global warming risk in a comparative context. From the standpoint of total cumulative harm to be wreaked, consider that a 40% risk for a series of global warming millennial superstorms costing $1 trillion each actually presents a comparatively smaller risk of harm than a 1/100th of 1% risk of irreversible global warming with its end-of-the-world consequences. Yes, this means that a 40% risk of millennial superstorms poses far less of a risk of destructive consequences than a 1/100th of 1% risk of irreversible global warming.

We’ve already experienced global warming-related extreme storms and know the damage and havoc they leave in their wake. What we are seeing now pales in comparison to irreversible global warming’s full potential for global destruction and chaos. This helps put the enormity of risk into a comparative perspective, which helps drive home how utterly serious and urgent the global warming emergency is.

To further help quantify this global warming tipping point risk level, now consider that one of our most respected climate scientists, Michael Mann, has estimated the current risk level for going over a global warming tipping point at not 1/100th of 1%, not 1%, but at approximately 10%!⁶⁰ If one of our best climate scientists has set a 10% risk level for us crossing more global warming tipping points, how should you begin to think about this level of risk to your future? (Keep in mind that any global warming tipping point also has the potential to become a keystone tipping point).

It’s reasonable to suppose the nations of the world would not allow even a fraction of 1% of a risk level for global thermonuclear war to go less than 100% managed and controlled. So how should we be managing our tipping point risks? How can we rationally continue to allow a 10% risk level of crossing more global warming tipping points to still go unmanaged when it can quickly lead directly to the extinction of humanity and the end of civilization?

Because of the difficulty of quantifying known and unknown factors involved within developing points of no return and tipping points themselves, the risk of going over more global warming tipping points is likely much higher than 10%.

Understanding the many unique dangers of global warming and crossing its tipping points is critical to your future quality of life. Once you understand tipping point risks are real and how they work, you are hopefully more likely to use the information in this document for managing them.

More about out of control global warming, climate destabilization, and tipping points

Global warming causes climate destabilization, but climate destabilization can also cause global warming. These processes can work both ways. For example, already destabilized burned forests and acidified oceans can’t absorb as much carbon. Because they cannot absorb as much carbon, more carbon stays in the atmosphere, causing more global warming heat.

There are also hopeful transition points between the processes of deepening irreversible global warming and the levels of climate destabilization. Climate destabilization transforms into irreversible warming only if there is a cascading meltdown of many tipping points, or a keystone tipping point is crossed.

Why and how we will go extinct. The four most critical levels of global warming tipping points that we will cross in our near future. 

Below are the four most important global warming tipping point levels within our complex climate system, which will involve interacting climate, biological and human systems, and subsystems. Those four tipping point levels are:

1. The climate cliff tipping point level. (This tipping point initiates the beginning of a runaway process for triggering more and more global warming tipping points at faster and faster rates.)

2. The extinction-critical runaway global ice melting tipping point level. (ALL ice and ALL glaciers on Earth will enter a near-unstoppable process of a complete meltdown! (Sea levels could rise up to 10 feet over decades and up to 220 feet over several centuries.)

3. The extinction-accelerating runaway massive methane release tipping point level. (Massive amounts of methane gas start being released from ocean coastal shelves and the world's permafrost.) And,

4. The runaway rising global warming temperature level. (This final global warming tipping point level leads to a total extinction event. This is because of our average global temperatures rising so high that Earth's atmosphere is ripped off into space and everything dies.)

You now have a very good understanding of tipping points, but there is one more very important thing to know about how they will unfold and when. Before you continue to read the following tipping point conclusion sections on this page, we strongly recommend to first read our four most important global warming tipping point levels page. As you read about these four major global warming tipping point levels and when they will occur, our current extreme extinction threat will become far more vividly true, frighteningly real, and fully understandable to you. 

This critical tipping point levels page also contains the four most critical reasons why we have only about 6 years left (until about 2025,) to slow down a now unavoidable mass extinction process as well as our crossing the total extinction-evoking global warming tipping points.

(This tipping point levels page is the single most important and regularly updated page on our website! You will not regret taking the time to read it now before continuing.)

Your preparedness, survival and the speed of crossing more global warming tipping points

Something important to remember is that as we cross more and more global warming tipping points, the worst global warming consequences will increase faster and faster. They will not grow gradually and linearly. They will grow exponentially over time. (In the graph below the red line is an example of a linear gradual growth trajectory and the red line is an example of exponential growth curve and trajectory.)

The exponential growth of global warming consequences after we cross the four levels of tipping points discussed above means that few people or governments will be able to stay up with these escalating consequences for very long, but only if we do not come very close to hitting the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. It also means that unless you have made emergency preparations and adaptations, and/or have migrated (where necessary) well before these four levels of tipping points are crossed, you will probably not have the time to do so later as things get worse faster and faster.

This is because the social, economic and political systems will become more and more unstable and chaotic faster and faster as crossing more global warming tipping points pushes us into a steeper and steeper exponential curve (the green line above) of increasing severity, frequency and scale in our global warming consequences. If you have not prepared well in advance for what is coming, you will find yourself in a living hell!

One more tipping point super-shocker

You will be shocked by how dangerously global warming tipping points are being mishandled and consequently hidden by the world’s recognized authority on the climate. Click here for more information on this.

What to never forget about the danger of crossed tipping points

As we continue crossing more global warming tipping points, the 20 worst global warming consequences and the consequences of the tipping points themselves will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale. This is because:

1. The points of no return before a tipping point is crossed as well as the crossed tipping point itself, create "slippery" conditions where it becomes far easier for that condition or consequence to worsen far more quickly and at a far steeper gradient.

2. tipping points when crossed create sudden and extremely difficult to recover from steep drop-offs or complete system crashes,

3. any positive feedback loop contained within the tipping point processes will also significantly amplify either the positive or negative consequences of that tipping point, and 

4. a crossed tipping point within a system or subsystem tends to push other tipping points over their tipping points in the subsystems or systems associated with or interconnected to the original tipping point.

There are also important "outside" non-global warming global challenges and contextual factors that directly or indirectly will interact with the global warming tipping points to significantly worsen them

The many tipping points of global warming do not take place in a vacuum. They take place within a global context in which the 6 major global challenges and their consequences are already occurring.

These 6 major global challenges that directly or indirectly will be interacting with and colliding into the global warming tipping points described below. These additional interactions with the 6 global challenges below will make our lives and our 11 major global warming tipping points far worse. Please keep these contextualizing other global challenges in mind as you read the 11 major global warming tipping points that will follow further down this page:

Global Challenge 1: Overpopulation, the Earth may have only the resource carrying capacity for about 2 billion people or less. (Please click the brief carrying capacity link and the brief overshoot link for a full understanding on why this overpopulation challenge is so bad.)

We are near 8 billion people racing to 9.4 billion by or before 2050. We are way over sustainable population levels and future and current generations will suffer dearly because we failed to manage ourselves in this area by itself.

Global Challenge 2: Resource depletion fueled by overpopulation, toxic pollution, crop failures, overfishing yrs. and loss of topsoil.

We already have increasing food shortages (1 billion people are hungry.) Ocean fish stocks are already suffering from catastrophic losses from pollution and overfishing. We are rapidly depleting our many kinds of quantity-limited, nonrenewable, and even renewable resources to unsustainable levels. This resource depletion also increases global poverty by making those essential resources more expensive. To make matters worse, many of our current key resources will run out at nearly the same time! 

Global Challenge 3: Global economic instability.

There is no doubt that the mix of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario consequences will increase global poverty, economic instability, economic inequality (conflicts between rich and poor), and rising national deficits. Imagine a global financial depression or crisis occurring as we also try to solve global warming and all of our other global challenges at the same time. In the next global financial crisis or global depression, there will be even less resiliency and fewer resources to solve these challenges.

Global Challenge 4: Political instability first in countries with low management capabilities or low resource resilience or high deficits.

The nations of the world are weaker than we are allowing ourselves to realize. Global warming and these other global challenges increase political instability which acts to further increase the likelihood of more wars, terrorism, and political injustice in low, medium, and high resilience nations. This global challenge plus escalating global warming and the other global challenges will create sudden and massive migrations of millions then billions of people that even the richest nations will not be able to absorb.

Global Challenge 5: Global Pandemic.

As all of the above 4 resilience-reducing global challenges get worse, this increases the probability of a global pandemic that is not caused by the global warming consequence of melting tundra and permafrost. (This is a separate high risk due to existing or new diseases being poorly treated, the mobility and migration of world populations, and the overall deterioration of global health services as the stew of all of the global challenges listed above come to a global warming amplified boil.)

Global Challenge 6: Failing to evolve a single global government with legislative, judicial, and enforceable executive powers.

If you think about it carefully, you will discover that this last and most often invisible global challenge IS the single biggest reason and core structural cause for why our main global challenges have not yet been resolved. The lack of the existence of a single global government with legislative, judicial and executive verification, enforcement and punishment powers having common global laws allows humanity's biggest global challenges to either:

a. exist at all,

b. continue to exist or,

c. to remain perpetually unresolved and/or

d. continually worsening as many of them are now.

In other words, the mere absence of a true global government of itself alone acts to facilitate, escalate and enable all of the global challenges that we currently face. 

What we are facing with the 6 global challenges (above) interacting with the 7th global challenge (escalating global warming and its 11 tipping points,) is certain to become the greatest simultaneous convergence of multiple and cross-multiplying catastrophes in human history. (For a great video by a famous English professor with clear illustrations that explain the above global challenges and the coming "Great Convergence" and chain of catastrophes please click here.)

Now that you have a better idea of the volatile and dangerous context in which the following global warming tipping points will take place, you are now ready to review be 11 major tipping points.

A humorous 11-minute tipping point animation

Once you have finished this document, take 11 minutes to watch Wake Up, Freak Out - Then Get a Grip.⁶¹ Pay particular attention to the animation's excellent explanation of the various critical global warming tipping points. This video has been viewed over 1 million times and has been translated into 22 different languages. One note: this video gives temperature degrees in Celsius. A rough Fahrenheit temperature conversion is double the Celsius amount. Near its end, the video presents a somewhat polarized viewpoint. Though the informational and tipping point content is good, the Job One for Humanity organization that is publishing this document puts a higher priority on collaborative approaches in lieu of polarized ones.

A deeper perspective into the science of exponential progressions

We are facing an exponentially rising threat. If you are not fully grasping the critical difference between linear progressions and exponential progressions, it is highly recommended to view this YouTube video⁶² on the nature of exponential progressions. It has been watched 5 million times. It should help you better visualize what “exponential” means in relation to the potential of the coming drastic rise in the magnitude at every level of coming global warming consequences.

A deeper perspective on climate science when seen as a complex system that is adaptive

The following presents some basics of systems theory and complex systems that are adaptive (also known as complex adaptive systems) for those who want a deeper understanding of:

1. the nature of the global climate,
   
   
2. the processes of climate destabilization,
   
   
3. how human, climate and biological systems might react, and
   
   
4. global warming as a complex adaptive system.

Envisioning how complex adaptive systems interact with each other through their many interconnections, interdependencies, nonlinear processes, and contexts, relationships, and transformations is indeed challenging.

To illustrate this challenge, imagine each global warming subsystem within the master climate system as a tangle of cooked spaghetti. Now imagine several such tangles of spaghetti interconnected by most of their strands. Sorting out what the connections are would be quite the challenge, yes?

Although that's not the best image for the overall complexity and interconnectedness of global warming, the climate, and our human and biological systems and subsystems, it will at least open the door to envisioning the research and prediction challenges climate scientists face. In spite of this inherent complexity, it is well worth the extra effort to understand the context and principles behind these relationships, processes, and transformations within global warming processes, the climate, and our human and biological systems and subsystems.

To better grasp the nature of this “spaghetti,” it is useful to understand global warming, the climate, and human and biological systems as complex adaptive systems.

Complex adaptive systems by nature:

1. Are complex (multifaceted, multilayered, etc.)
   
   
2. Are self-organizing (can organize themselves into new states or make changes without involvement or actions from outside the system. Self-organization occurs in response to some change in the environment or mutation. This also dramatically increases the unpredictability potentials of the system).
   
   
3. Evolve and adapt (they can respond with both reactive and adaptive changes as needed to maintain internal balance and system integrity and stability).
   
   
4. Contain elements of spontaneous emergence (something coming into being that was not predicted or completely unpredictable).
   
   
5. Can contain tipping points (points of sudden significant change or collapse).
   
   
6. Can contain points of no return (where the momentum of some process will sooner or later trigger the tipping point).
   
   
7. Contain linear and nonlinear cause-and-effect relationships between the various parts of the system and its subsystems.
   
   
8. Can change rapidly and are highly unpredictable.

In summary, complex adaptive systems, like global warming, the climate, and our human and biological systems, are highly unpredictable, self-organizing, and often include spontaneous or nonlinear unexpected outcomes. Sometimes they also contain high-impact, nonlinear relationships, and tipping points, causing radical, sudden, and completely unforeseen consequences.

The presence of these often counter-intuitive, linear, and nonlinear relationships and processes as described above means that causes and effects within climate, global warming human and biological systems, and subsystems are sometimes not logically connected, clear, or predictable. Within a complex adaptive system like global warming, the climate, and our human and biological systems, one area can affect a completely different system or subsystem where there seems to be no apparent, direct or connected cause and effect relationship between these numerous interacting and interrelated systems or subsystems.

(We also recommend you read the following page from Wikipedia on global warming tipping points.)

A big-picture perspective on the challenge before us

The escalating global warming crisis has become the greatest adaptive challenge and evolutionary adventure in human history. Paradoxically, while it is the greatest current challenge, if you step back and look at this crisis from the long evolutionary sweep of human history, this crisis is just another evolutionary challenge like the many we have overcome in the past.

The following Great Bottleneck story should help you better frame the difficult challenge in front of us.

The human species has almost gone extinct at least once before. This occurred about 72,000 years ago. This incident has been called the Great Evolutionary Bottleneck.

A supervolcano called Toba erupted and blocked the sun for about 6 years. It also covered the earth with 6 inches of ash. Because of this supervolcano eruption and the resultant volcanic ash blocking the sunlight, the global temperature was dramatically lowered. This volcano-related temperature lowering occurred on top of an already existing Ice Age.

Under the cold and darkened skies, humanity as a whole was reduced to as few as 1,000 mating pairs. Some research suggests even fewer survivors. Maybe as few as 200 mating pairs were all that survived of humanity.

This supervolcano eruption has been called an evolutionary bottleneck because during this time the total early global human population fell from an estimated 18-26,000 individuals with reproductive capabilities to 1,000 or fewer reproducing pairs. That was roughly a 90% reduction in the total global population. If some other catastrophe had also occurred at the same time, humanity itself might have gone extinct.

Up until now, the Toba eruption has been the single greatest adaptive challenge to the survival of the whole of the human species. Unfortunately, today we are facing a new and far greater adaptive challenge.

This second great bottleneck is different, yet in some ways similar to the first great evolutionary bottleneck. This second bottleneck contains a global warming threat opposite to that of the colder temperatures of the first great evolutionary bottleneck. Unlike the first great bottleneck, which was caused by nature, the second is human-caused due to increasing carbon and methane atmospheric pollution and the steadily rising average global temperature.

This increasing global warming is causing a destabilization of our climate from its previously fairly stable temperature range level. This increasing destabilization will lead to some higher temperature range that may not be suitable for the survival of a majority of the 7 billion-plus people alive today. It may not be suitable for preserving any of the human species over time.

This means that together as a single human species, we are facing a new great adaptive challenge in the form of the second great evolutionary bottleneck. If we are going to come through this second evolutionary bottleneck, more will need to be done faster with more people cooperating on greater levels than has ever been achieved in human history.

Whenever you feel overwhelmed by the global warming challenge in front of us, never forget that humanity made it through the first great evolutionary bottleneck with far less cooperation, technology, and resources. Yes, today’s challenge will still be more difficult than any humanity has previously overcome. But, in the process of overcoming it, we will not only ensure our own future, but our effort will also provide each of us, both young and old, the opportunity to participate in the greatest evolutionary adventure in human history. Participating in such a challenge and adventure will create a deeply meaningful and purpose-filled life.

“The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.”

— Martin Luther King, Jr., American civil rights leader

Summary

• Crossed tipping points can cause sudden and unpredictable severe changes and immediate or complete system crash or collapse.
  
  
• Crossing global warming tipping points is not as rare as the fossil fuel industry would like you to believe. We have already crossed several global warming tipping points and it is likely we will cross more.
  
  
• In general, when a tipping point is crossed, unpredictability increases along with the speed of change. Our ability to control the disruption of a tipping point and reverse it drops radically as the system tumbles towards collapse.
  
  
• Once a point of no return is crossed, it is just a matter of time before its tipping point is crossed.
  
  
• Because the climate and global warming are complex adaptive systems, when any global warming tipping point is crossed, it makes it significantly more likely that more tipping points will also be crossed in interconnected or interdependent systems or subsystems.
  
  
• Because of inherent pre-existing momentum or inertia factors within one or more of the global warming tipping points, and the possibility that points of no return have already been crossed, we may have already crossed more of the global warming tipping points and be inevitably locked into crossing even more tipping points no matter what we do.
  
  
• At this point, at the least what we must do is prevent our crossing any keystone tipping point, which would deepen irreversible global warming and the later stages of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario.
  
  
• Any global warming remedial plan based on everything going perfectly will become the perfect plan for failure.
  
  
• The most important process that directly or indirectly causes global warming tipping points to be crossed is increasing heat.
  
  
• Humanity successfully survived the first great evolutionary bottleneck. We have many more advantages today, which should be of help in getting us through the current emergency we are facing.
• Understanding the 11 major global warming tipping points along with the Climageddon Extinction Scenario is absolutely essential to understanding how and why as much as 70 to 90% of the human population will suffer and die within as soon as the next 30 to 50 years if we fail to hit the absolutely critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
• No compensatory calculations for the effects of any global warming tipping points being crossed were ever included in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC,) calculations for precisely how much we have to reduce our global fossil fuel use to save ourselves from extinction. This is important because the IPCC's global fossil fuel reduction calculations are currently being used by all of the member governments of the United Nations (about 190 countries,) for setting their own internal national fossil fuel reduction programs. This failure to include allowance calculations for crossed tipping points also means that the critical national fossil fuel reduction programs of every member of the United Nations using the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement targets is also based on incomplete and inaccurate calculations. This means we are using the wrong needed fossil fuel reduction calculations to save us from extinction within our lifetimes.
• We need to execute the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets to save humanity from mass extinction before it is too late.
• Keep in mind that our government leaders have utterly failed to see the coming pain and suffering of the COVID-19 pandemic, nor did they adequately prepare for it. They were not able to manage it or its tipping points. Our government leaders are also not seeing global warming's tipping points or adequately preparing for the global warming extinction emergency, which is already happening and, will be far, far worse than COVID-19!

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Footnotes:

⁵⁶ Show.earth. "Keeling Curve Monthly CO2 Widget." ProOxygen. Accessed January 17, 2017 from https://www.show.earth/kc-monthly-co2-widget

⁵⁷ Hansen, James, et al. "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?"The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, no. 1 (2008): 217-231. DOI: 10.2174/1874282300802010217

⁵⁸ International Cryosphere Climate Initiative. Thresholds and Closing Windows.ICCI.org. December 2015. http://iccinet.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/ICCI_thresholds_v6b_151203_high_res.pdf

⁵⁹ David Spratt. "Climate Reality Check." Breakthrough - National Centre for Climate Restoration. March 2016.http://media.wix.com/ugd/148cb0_4868352168ba49d89358a8a01bc5f80f.pdf

⁶⁰ Micheal E. Mann. "The fat tail of climate change risk." Huffington Post. September 11, 2015. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html (In this article, professor Mann uses the terminology “fat tail” to describe global warming tipping point events.)

⁶¹ "Wake Up, Freak Out - then Get a Grip." Vimeo video. 11:34, posted by "Leo Murray," September 11, 2008. http://vimeo.com/1709110

⁶² "The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See." YouTube video. 9:17, posted by "wonderingmind42," June 16, 2007. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY