The 4 Extinction Accelerating Climate Change & Global Warming Tipping Points
Last Updated 1.16.23
This page explains the four global warming extinction-accelerating tipping points and the five phases of runaway global heating, some of which are irreversible for centuries. It also explains why most people who hear our governments talking about global fossil fuel reduction targets for 2030-2060 have no idea if we fail to make these critical reductions over the next 3 to 8 years, we are royally screwed!
If we miss the correct 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets by a lot, we not only suffer the unavoidable extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century, but we also will bring about the rapidly worsening runaway global heating and our near-total human extinction by about 2070-2080.
Unfortunately, many climate activists and environmental organizations still do not understand the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, where runaway global heating becomes fully beyond our control, or where the climate survival threshold and its final deadline exist. Consequently, they develop climate change education and remedial action programs that do not fit the true urgency or the real deadlines of our global heating extinction emergency.
Hopefully, this article will help those individuals and organizations re-adjust their climate change programs accordingly before it is too late for All of us!
This article fully explains why we must act within this 3-8 year last window of opportunity to fix the climate change emergency. It also contains an important section near its end on why all is not hopeless yet!
You are about to read some horrible climate change and global warming news. When you finish reading this article, among other things, you will know for yourself if we have already entered into a runaway global heating extinction emergency.
In many places on our website, we have warned that about half of humanity will unavoidably go extinct by mid-century. After reading this page, you will understand why this will occur. It will become apparent below as you watch the carbon and methane in our atmosphere rise and as higher global temperatures lock in with each new tipping point crossed.
The cumulative primary and secondary effects of runaway global heating consequences will illuminate how the unavoidable extinction of about half of humanity could occur by mid-century. (The how of a runaway global heating-driven mass extinction is found on this page.)
Only by understanding both why and how mass extinction will happen will you genuinely grasp the accuracy of our warning and that, unfortunately, we also face near-total, but NOT total, extinction.
When you finish both the why and how pages, you will not doubt the objective reasonableness of our strong warnings about mass and near-total extinction. (Near-total extinction is defined as about 50 to 90+ percent of humanity going extinct. For why it is highly improbable that we will go totally extinct from global heating, click here.)
While reading this article, please remember that many of the tipping point risks below are avoidable and unnecessary. We can still slow and fix runaway global heating if we work together to get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel targets.
And finally, to help you process the following uncomfortable news, we have provided good news at the end of this article! You will even find a plan for what you can do to help slow and fix the runaway global heating extinction emergency.
A quick overview of the four extinction-accelerating tipping points
There are just four critical atmospheric carbon-based global warming accelerating tipping points and deadlines to never forget.
Atmospheric carbon (CO2) is measured in parts per million (ppm.) If you look a bit farther down the page, you will see an atmospheric carbon CO2 graph that will give you an initial idea of our current danger level.
Here is a quick overview of the atmospheric carbon danger levels:
1. The carbon 386 tipping point, which we passed in 2015. At this point, we entered into the beginning of the first phase of runaway global heating. (This was discovered by James Hansen, the NASA scientist who was one of the first to warn the world of the extinction threat.)
2. The 2025 carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point. (This is the second phase of runaway global heating, contributing to an unavoidable extinction process for half of humanity by mid-century. This second phase is generally seen as irreversible for centuries.)
3. The 2042-2067 or earlier carbon 500 ppm tipping point begins the runaway global ice melt. (This is the third phase of irreversible runaway global heating, which accelerates the unavoidable extinction process for half of humanity by mid-century and can lead to the extinction of a far greater portion of humanity. This third phase is irreversible for centuries.)
4. The 2063-2072 or earlier, the carbon 600 ppm near-total human extinction tipping point due to massive methane releases from the permafrost and the oceans. (This climate change tipping point creates the fourth phase of runaway global heating. This fourth phase is irreversible for centuries.)
5. The post-2072, the carbon 750 ppm final and fifth phase of irreversible runaway global heating. (This crossed threshold leads to certain total human and biological extinction.) This fifth phase may be irreversible forever or for many centuries.)
Of these four still yet-to-be-crossed tipping points, 2025 is the most important. Once we cross the 2025 tipping point, any realistic or practical control of our global warming future to prevent, mass extinction is all but over for centuries to possibly thousands of years. If we pass all four yet-to-be-crossed tipping points, we will experience human, animal, and biological extinction. We also will experience complete economic, social, and political collapse and chaos long before the fifth phase of runaway global heating.
That is a powerful statement, but we can prove it in the materials and links on this page.
The current global warming consequences will be like a day at the beach compared to what is coming if we trigger the four global warming tipping points described below. (Those current consequences are massive and escalating wildfires, heat waves, droughts, flooding, rain bombs, extreme and record-breaking weather, bomb cyclones, sea-level rise, etc. Click here for all 20 of those consequences,)
Once you understand the four tipping points and deadlines, you can plan for your future safety or your smartest business moves in a rapidly deteriorating environment. The following sections will discuss most aspects of these global warming tipping points in detail.
But, before you can fully grasp the insane danger of crossing any of the four key tipping points below, you will need to understand how we measure carbon in the atmosphere. (Much of today's atmospheric carbon is caused by burning fossil fuels.)
How we measure global warming and what increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere tells us about future global warming and our extinction
Before you can fully grasp the danger of crossing the four key extinction-accelerating tipping points below, you will need to understand how we measure carbon in the atmosphere. (Carbon is the main greenhouse gas that we are creating by our fossil fuel use that is causing global warming.)
Atmospheric carbon from fossil fuel burning is the main human-caused factor in the escalating global warming we are experiencing now. The current level of carbon in our atmosphere is tracked using what is called the Keeling curve.
Each year, many measurements are taken at Mauna Loa, Hawaii to determine the parts per million (ppm) of carbon in the atmosphere at that time. At the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (1), around 1880, before we began fossil fuel burning, our atmospheric carbon ppm level was at about 270. Here is the Keeling curve graph in January of 2022.
Keeling Curve Monthly CO2 graph, via Show.earth (2)
As you can see, we are not doing very well. No matter what you hear in the media, if the total carbon ppm level is not going down or carbon’s average ppm level per year is not falling or at least slowing its steep increase, (3) we are not making any significant progress on resolving the escalating global warming emergency. Total atmospheric carbon and carbon’s average ppm level per year are the most dependable measurements of our progress and a predictor of what will be happening with global warming and its many consequences.
How do we know if we're making honest progress in reducing carbon dioxide to reduce escalating global warming?
There are at least two ways we will be able to tell that we are making honest progress in reducing global warming:
1. When we see our average annual increase in carbon ppm levels (currently at about 3 ppm per year) begin dropping, remaining at the current level, or at least rising at a slower rate.
2. When we start seeing the above Keeling graph levels dropping from the current carbon ppm level (approximately 420 ppm) to carbon 350-325 ppm. (How we do this is in the free Job One Plan.)
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A quick look at the historic rise of carbon in the atmosphere
On average, over the last 60 years, for every additional 25 parts per million (ppm) of carbon that goes into the atmosphere, our average global temperature goes up .5 degrees Fahrenheit or about .25 degrees C. On average, over the last 6 decades, we have been adding about an increase of 3 + additional carbon ppm into the atmosphere each year.
If you look at the trendline on the graph above, you can clearly see we are in serious trouble! In spite of everything you are hearing about all we have done to reduce global warming over the past 30+ years, you can clearly see that global warming from increased atmospheric carbon is not only continuing to get worse, but it is also getting worse at an even faster rate.
It is also critical to understand that the ever-increasing damage that we are doing to our life-critical environment is primarily because of our carbon pollution of the atmosphere and its consequent global warming. Worse yet, this warming will not reverse itself for hundreds to thousands of years from now!
What you will find below is the how, when, and why the next wave of crossed global warming tipping points will not only severely worsen our lives but also bring about the extinction of most of humanity. Before that extinction occurs, we will experience escalating economic, political, and social chaos within our lifetimes.
When reading the four tipping points described below, keep in mind that:
1. we are almost out of time to do something about them (unless we get close to these 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets) and
2. the following four tipping points both define and highlight the key elements and essence of what makes up our current global warming extinction emergency.
3. the first three tipping points trigger an unavoidable mass extinction by mid-century. The last tipping point triggers near-total extinction not long after that.
To set the final stage for your discovery of the four critical tipping points and deadlines, it is also advantageous to review what is happening in our climate right now:
1. At our current atmospheric carbon levels, we are already experiencing more and worsening extreme droughts and storms, wildfires, rain bombs, bomb cyclones, hurricanes, and other wild and unseasonable weather.
2. At our current atmospheric carbon level of about 420 ppm, the stability of the bellwether West Antarctic ice sheet has already been breached and this ice loss is now irreversible. (This ice sheet plays a critical role in rising sea levels. This ice sheet is also an excellent example of one of many critical global warming tipping points the world has hurdled past far faster than anyone had predicted or foreseen.)
3. The Earth's temperature has risen radically (exponentially) since the industrial revolution from the previous stable range it held for thousands of years. It will continue to rise radically as we fail to reduce our global fossil fuel use. Please notice how the average global temperature is rising faster and faster over shorter and shorter periods of time.
Since 1970 alone average global temperature rose from preindustrial levels from .7 degrees Celcius to 1.4 degrees Celcius. That is a faster average global temperature rise than has occurred in over one million years! At our current increasing fossil fuel use rates, we will soon cross the 2.0 - 2.7 Celcius degree increase from the preindustrial levels mark sometime near 2025.
(The red line is rising temperature and the blue line rising atmospheric carbon measured in ppm.)
Based upon the foundational global warming measurement and other information from above, you are ready for what will happen over the next few decades if we go over what we call the 2025 carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point and do not come very close to meeting these 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
Here are the four critical levels of global warming extinction triggering, accelerating, and executing tipping points we will cross in the near future if we fail to act effectively
Below please find the four most important global warming tipping point levels within our complex climate system, which will involve interacting climate, biological and human systems, and subsystems.
The four critical atmospheric carbon-based global warming accelerating tipping points and deadlines to never forget are:
1. The 2025 carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point level. (This tipping point significantly accelerates and initiates the complete runaway global warming process of triggering more and more critical global warming tipping points at faster and faster rates. Once we cross this carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point, the average global temperature will continue to rise out of our control. It will continue rising, powered by the laws of climate physics and the natural forces of the climate system.
This tipping point, if avoided, will allow us to at least slow down the currently unavoidable extinction of half of humanity by mid-century so that more of us can live longer. On the other hand, this tipping point, if crossed, will lead us within a few additional decades beyond the unavoidable extinction of half of humanity into total human extinction.)
2. The extinction-accelerating, runaway global ice melting carbon 500 ppm tipping point level. (ALL ice and ALL glaciers on Earth will enter a near-unstoppable process of a complete meltdown! (Sea levels could rise up to 10 feet over decades and up to 220 feet over several centuries.)
3. The carbon 600 ppm total human extinction, runaway massive methane release tipping point level. (Carbon 600 ppm is where massive amounts of methane gas start being released from coastal ocean shelves and the world's permafrost, and all of humanity will perish.) And,
4. The above carbon 750 ppm runaway greenhouse gas effect and atmosphere removal tipping point level. (This is the final global warming tipping point level of carbon 750 and beyond. It leads to the near-total extinction of all biological life on Earth, needing oxygen to survive. This is because our average global temperature is rising so high that Earth's oxygen atmosphere is stripped off into space and everything dies.)
It is important to note that every advanced national intelligence agency around the world with adequate long-term climate research funding already knows about the above four tipping points and precisely what will happen when we cross them. (Just like they knew that we had to be prepared for the next pandemic.) Yet, they chose to keep this information a carefully guarded national secret and not urge their politicians to adequately and publically prepare or act.
The reason for this secrecy may be simple. If you knew your governments were secretly preparing to save themselves and their key personnel from what you are about to read, you probably would be angry, fearful, and in panic. Widespread public anger and fear would substantially interfere with or delay governmental efforts to secretly prepare their survival plans. To think that the best-resourced national intelligence agencies do not have this information as well as the big data meta-systemic analysis skills to review current climate research studies and see the coming extinction emergency is naive.
We know the previous is a lot to take in. After you read about the detailed consequences of crossing these four critical global warming consequences below, we think you too will understand why governments have chosen to keep this information secret and are trying to protect themselves first. This secrecy and public denial of the global warming extinction emergency is not only logical for their survival but also necessary if anything is going to survive!
After you finish this article, you will also know the most probable cause of an inevitable World War III if we let this extinction emergency get out of control. That inevitability will be a massive nuclear, biological and/or chemical war for the last global warming safer zones where a tiny desperate portion of humanity may be able to survive if we do not cross the fourth and final tipping point.
Your preparedness, survival, and the speed of crossing more extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points
When you cross a global warming tipping point, things generally get a whole lot worse a whole lot faster. Therefore, as you read the four levels of extinction-accelerating tipping points below, it is important to keep in mind that as we cross more global warming tipping points, the global warming consequences will also get worse and worse, faster and faster!
They will not grow gradually and linearly. They will grow exponentially over time. (In the graph below, the red line is an example of a linear gradual growth trajectory, and the green line is an example of an exponential growth curve and trajectory.)
This exponential growth of global warming consequences will begin within the next 3-9 years (about 2025-2031 when we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point threshold). It will continue worsening from there.
This exponential growth in the severity, frequency, and scale of global warming consequences also means that few, if any, NGOs, corporations, or governments will ever be able to either manage or recover from these accelerating consequences for long. Exponential growth also means that unless you have made your emergency preparations long before these consequences begin rising exponentially, you won't have enough time to do so later.
This rising danger of getting caught unprepared exists because our social, economic, and political systems also will become exponentially more unpredictable, unstable, and chaotic. This system instability will happen sometime after global warming consequences enter their exponential curves (the green line above.)
If you have not prepared for exponentially rising global warming consequence growth long before it is needed (2025-2031), you will find yourself in a living hell! (See our Plan B for Climate Change Resilience for ideas on how to get well-prepared for what is coming and what is now unavoidable because of climate momentum and human inertia. Unfortunately, getting correctly prepared will take most people and organizations several years!)
The next section will discuss the four most dangerous tipping point levels in detail. In these four levels of tipping points, it also contains the four most critical reasons why we have only about six years left (until about 2025) to slow down an unavoidable mass extinction process as well as our crossing the other near-total extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points described below. As you read about these four major global warming tipping point levels, our current extreme extinction threat will become vividly real to you.
"There can be no margin for error whenever there is a real and imminent threat of total human extinction." Lawrence Wollersheim
The first extinction-triggering tipping point and the second phase of runaway global heating will be crossed sometime between 2025-2031. It is the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point
Overview of the first extinction-triggering tipping point
At this threshold of atmospheric carbon, we will cross many new climate tipping points and trigger climate feedback loops. These occurrences will significantly accelerate and ensure the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century.
Beginning about 2025-2031, the severity, frequency, and scale of current climate change consequences will rise exponentially. These rising consequences include heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, flooding, rain bombs, extreme wind, dust, wildfire smoke storms, unseasonable cold spells, and abnormal seasonal changes.
This increase in climate consequence severity, frequency, and scale is because we have already crossed into the beginning of the first stage of runaway global heating, and we are about to cross into the second. If you imagined runaway global heating like a train without brakes rolling down a mountain that is getting steeper and steeper, you would have a good idea about the seriousness of our climate consequences soon rising exponentially.
Because climate change consequences will soon begin rising exponentially, you may have only another 3-8 more years of relative climate change stability, depending upon where you live. (Beginning around 2025, if you are in a high-risk climate change area, the global heating consequences you are already experiencing will start to become far worse than you are currently experiencing.)
Saying we have only three to, at best, nine more years left to control climate change and global heating does not mean that humanity will go totally extinct in 3-8 years! It only means that if we do not do what is necessary to radically reduce global fossil fuel use over the next 3 to 8 years to meet the 2025 global targets:
1. many more climate change consequences will begin at vastly higher levels of severity, frequency, and scale. (They will increase exponentially.) And,
2. humanity will face many more unavoidable cataclysmic climate change consequences (such as about half of humanity going extinct by mid-century.)
3. we also will face near-total extinction because we will keep moving into the danger levels of the second and third extinction-accelerating tipping point levels. (If you are curious about what near-total extinction is, why we will not go totally extinct, and why near-total extinction is good news when compared to as opposed to total extinction, click here.)
To put the danger of this first near-total extinction-triggering tipping point in the proper perspective, it is vital to remember that atmospheric carbon was at about 270 ppm for hundreds of thousands of years. At carbon 270 ppm, there was climate stability.
Our best climate scientists have now calculated that if we kept atmospheric carbon below the carbon 350 ppm level, we would avoid the worse consequences of climate change, global warming, and extinction.
The most important thing to remember is that crossing the first extinction-triggering tipping point will bring about an unavoidable extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. We also will experience the unavoidable extinction of about half of humanity because we will trigger far too many of the primary and secondary runaway global heating consequences, many occurring simultaneously.
What follows in this section are the technical details on how and why not crossing this first climate change extinction-accelerating tipping point is so critical to our future survival. The following will also help you learn about climate system momentum factors and human inertia factors.
Most people, unfortunately, do not understand the extinction-preventing 2025 global fossil fuel reduction deadline. Moreover, they do not understand the physics and mechanics behind the laws of climate momentum and human inertia.
Our current climate momentum factors mean that even if we stopped ALL global burning of fossil fuels today, global temperatures would continue rising for the next 2-3 (or more) decades. Furthermore, it also means that the radical 2025 global fossil fuel reductions we must make immediately will not deliver significant and observable benefits to the average citizen for about 2-3 decades. Finally, if we ever make the needed fossil fuel reductions, this climate momentum time lag will challenge the patience and understanding of almost everyone, not just our politicians.
The graph above illustrates an exponential rise in the three critical atmospheric greenhouse gases expressed in parts per billion. Since the mid-1700s and the start of the Industrial Revolution, these gases have been mostly human-made from burning fossil fuels. As a result, each of these greenhouse gases has built up considerable atmospheric heat-increasing momentum! (Click here to learn more about our 60 years of failed global fossil fuel reductions.)
We only have until about 2025 to 2031 to maintain control of our global warming futures. This short time is because we will cross new dangerous climate tipping points as we pass through the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold.
The climate cliff, beginning runaway global warming and moving quickly toward complete runaway global warming
For a bit, we must talk about the concept of the climate cliff and what it is before we detail the first extinction-producing tipping point, which is when we cross the carbon 425-450 threshold. For years, our organization had previously called this carbon 425-450 ppm level the climate cliff. (In this article, you will also hear us call the carbon 425-450 ppm level our first extinction-triggering or producing tipping point.)
The original climate cliff 425-450 ppm level was based on the United Nations' decades-long-held target of keeping the average global temperature rising no more than 2°C above preindustrial levels. Recently the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) lowered its temperature target level based on realizing the consequences of a 2°C temperature increase above preindustrial levels would be far worse than original research indicated.
The UN's new climate cliff level of 2020 is now to stay below an average global temperature increase of 1.5C. This target level has changed because global warming consequences above this temperature are now known to be much worse than previously believed.
One of the other significant reasons now being acknowledged among recognized climate scientists for the new UN 1.5 C climate cliff temperature target level is that there are already considerably more atmospheric carbon emissions than was previously predicted. These additional carbon emissions come from other amplifying carbon feedback loops and carbon sink failures.
Many of these further amplifying carbon feedback loops and carbon sink issues will show up just beyond a 1.5C average global temperature increase as soon as 2025. (These amplifying carbon feedbacks and carbon sink failures will be described further below.)
Newer research also shows that staying at or near a 1.5 C of average global temperature increase may be the temperature level that entirely excludes the latter levels of runaway global warming and continues to cross additional extinction-triggering global warming tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops.
At this point, it is also essential to understand what is meant by the term runaway global warming. Runaway global warming means that global warming will continue to increase on a runaway course. Imagine a train going down a steep hill with no functional brakes. Once the runaway global warming "train" gets started, in most cases, it will continue to roll on by itself with no practical way to stop or control it.
There are several levels of runaway global warming: beginning, extinction, and the Venus effect.
The beginning level of runaway global warming is defined as the point where numerous climate change and global warming consequences become catastrophic and unavoidable! For example, the UN's new 1.5 C climate cliff temperature threshold now means that because of what just the beginning level of runaway global warming can do, going above 1.5 C level will eventually lead to the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. (This link will show you how this mass extinction event will happen.)
Extinction level runaway global warming is the level of runaway global warming that will ensure humanity's near-total extinction. Venus-level runaway global warming will be so bad that it rips the atmosphere off our planet. As a result, the Earth will lose all human and biological life. This level of runaway global warming is believed to have happened to the planet Venus.
In our own internal 2016-17 climate analysis, using existing fossil fuel infrastructure, we calculated the first climate cliff for triggering beginning level runaway global warming (an unstoppable crossing of more amplifying global warming tipping points and climate feedback loops) would occur between the carbon 425 to carbon 450 ppm levels.These levels of atmospheric carbon would eventually create at least, a global 2C - 2.7C temperature increase over preindustrial levels.
Because of the UN IPCC threshold level of 1.5C, the beginning temperature and carbon limits for our former carbon climate cliff level now needed to be updated from its previous carbon level (425-450 ppm) and previous temperature level of about 2 -2.7° C above preindustrial levels to the new 1.5 C climate cliff starting point (about carbon 386.)
The new climate cliff shocker
The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has previously calculated that reaching the carbon 420 ppm level is equivalent to a 1.6 C average global temperature increase from preindustrial levels. They made this very low-temperature rise calculation without including crossing any of the many climate tipping points or amplifying carbon feedback loops.
But, as you will soon discover, we have already crossed important climate tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops and will quickly cross many more. (Our calculations making reasonable allowances and adjustments for crossed tipping points and omitted amplifying carbon feedback loops show the temperatures will rise much higher than the UN's temperature calculations.)
To have stayed below a 1.5 C target temperature increase, we would have had to have kept our atmospheric carbon level below 386 ppm. But, around 2015, we already had crossed over 386 carbon ppm level and ensured that we would hit the 1.5 C level.
The good news is we can still slow down the extinction of half of humanity by mid-century if we come close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. (It is perfectly normal to reject or doubt the possibility of such large-scale extinction occurring so soon. Therefore, we strongly recommend at some point clicking here to see the detailed sequences of some 80 primary and secondary consequences that will bring about the extinction of about half of humanity.)
All we can do now is slow and delay our partial extinction. But, it will take a government-driven mass mobilization to do it. This government-driven mass mobilization would have to radically reduce global fossil fuel use and get very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as its first action.
If the world governments act immediately and get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, more people will live longer and more comfortably. And, maybe we can still save humanity from the only thing worse than the extinction of half or more of humanity by mid-century, humanity's near-total extinction occurring from about 2050-2080 or sooner.
And there is a bit more bad news. Acting only to minimize the current global warming extinction threat is insane! It is insane because any temperature increase of 1.5 C will also trigger the crossing of three more extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops.
If nothing is done by our governments to radically slow and then reverse the average global temperature increase above the 1.5 C level, near-total extinction will be our eventual future. Supporting this 1.5 C danger is the Siberia permafrost field research (rather than the currently less accurate computer modeling) by Anton Vaks. (Reversing climate change means we need to get back down to at least carbon 350 ppm for some stability and hopefully and eventually back down to carbon 270 ppm, where both humans and nature flourished.)
This Siberian research puts a global permafrost "thaw-down" also beginning at 1.5 C. This Siberian research means that when the world's permafrost crosses this 1.5 C average global temperature increase tipping point, the world's permafrost begins a near-continuous meltdown. Furthermore, this research indicates that after we reach this 1.5 C average global temperature increase, all permafrost stored carbon and methane will eventually be released from the permafrost.
This 1.5C permafrost release point, plus other human-made carbon and methane releases, put us squarely on the fast track for the worst global warming prediction scenarios. (Click here for more documentation on the permafrost meltdown.)
Our ticking permafrost methane time bomb is further illuminated by the rising atmospheric methane CH4 graph below. When viewing this methane graph, consider that atmospheric methane is about 80 times more effective over 20 years and about 24 times more effective over 100 years than atmospheric carbon in increasing global warming. (The atmospheric methane graph below is in parts per billion [ppb].)
It is vital to know how having already crossed the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff will further accelerate the crossing of more global warming tipping points and amplify carbon feedback loops
The new carbon 386 ppm tipping point level was our last chance climate cliff because it was our last window of opportunity to keep from crossing the next critical atmospheric carbon threshold, which, when crossed, will significantly accelerate crossing more global warming tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops. Once we go over this 386 ppm climate cliff, our average global temperature will inevitably rise considerably above 1.5C - 2°C (eventually possibly as much as 3.2 C in eventual equilibrium warming.
Equilibrium warming is known as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS.) it is the long-term temperature rise (equilibrium global mean near-surface air temperature) that is expected to result from a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.)
Moreover, this temperature rise will be far faster than has ever occurred over previous human-friendly geologically-scaled periods. This means that what used to happen over millennia or centuries within our climate systems will now occur over decades!
Unfortunately, rapidly rising global temperatures are not the worst effect of crossing the carbon 386 ppm level and climate cliff. These fast temperature rises will also create a decisive additional climate momentum factor in addition to the already existing atmospheric carbon momentum. This further climate-related momentum will not only push our global temperature even higher even faster, but it will also force many of the 11 climate tipping points below and more tipping points within the climate's subsystems to be crossed much faster!
(The illustration below lists the 11 major global warming tipping points. The arrows between the tipping points indicate that these tipping points interact and can also trigger each other's system or subsystem tipping points. Global warming temperatures will soar faster and faster as we cross more climate tipping points, which will cross even more climate and human system tipping points in an endless feedback loop.)
At some point, we strongly recommend that you click here to learn more details about each tipping point above and how they will unfold to bring us closer to near-total extinction. This tipping point meltdown detail page covers what happens when you cross each of the above global warming tipping points, how they accelerate global warming temperature rise, how they accelerate global warming consequences, and how they cause sudden and complete climate, biological and human system collapses. Crossing these climate tipping points will also make any possible recovery from crossing these tipping points impossible or much slower, harder, and more expensive. This expanded tipping point reading will help you "see" the tremendous and dangerous impact that the many additional and soon-arriving crossed global warming tipping points will have on your future.
(At some point, to learn more about tipping point effects, we strongly recommend that you click here to learn more details about each tipping point above and how they will unfold to bring us closer to near-total extinction. (This additional tipping point meltdown page covers what happens when you cross the above tipping points, how they accelerate the global warming temperature rise, consequences, and how they will cause sudden and complete climate, biological and human system collapses if left unchecked.)
Crossing these climate tipping points will also make any possible recovery from crossing these tipping points either impossible or much slower, more complicated, and more expensive. (This expanded tipping point reading will help you "see" the tremendous and dangerous impact that the many additional and soon-arriving crossed global warming tipping points will have on your future.)
What to expect in rising temperatures now that we have crossed the carbon 386 climate cliff into runaway global warming
Since we have already passed the carbon 386 ppm level back around 2015, within about five years (around 2025 or less), we can expect to lock in an eventual total minimal increase in average global temperature of about 1.5 C.
Next, we cross the carbon 425 ppm level by or before about 2025; we can expect to lock in an additional eventual total increase in average global temperature of about 2 -2.7° Celsius (4° - 4.9° Fahrenheit) from preindustrial levels. (In March of 2022, we were at about carbon 421 ppm.)
The distinguished Professor of Meteorology Michael Mann from the University of Pennsylvania recently stated that once we reach the atmospheric carbon 405 ppm level, a 2 degrees C average global temperature increase is already baked in! And once that happens, the terrible news is that we can do nothing effective at this point to stop those temperature levels from rising for many more decades. (Again, this is why we correctly call our current climate emergency the runaway global heating emergency.)
At only this 1.5 -2.7° Celsius increased average global temperature level, hundreds of millions will eventually starve, and hundreds of millions of people worldwide will eventually be forced to migrate or die.
Furthermore, we are also condemned by the total heat-producing momentum of all of the previous carbon and other greenhouse gases that we have ever put into the atmosphere, along with the other factors mentioned further down this page. All of which will inevitably and quickly not only push our global temperature even higher but also trigger the crossing of ever more tipping points at an accelerating rate!
Because we have already gone over the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff and triggered this next level of accelerating climate tipping point crossings and climate feedbacks, we are now locked into continually increasing temperatures for as much as the next 30+ years and crossing even more dangerous tipping points and climate feedbacks.
We will reach our next even more dangerous transitional carbon and temperature threshold when we eventually do cross the carbon 425-450 carbon ppm tipping point level. This is the extinction-triggering threshold where, because of crossing even more future global warming tipping points and amplifying climate feedback loops at an accelerating rate, we will be unable to stop ourselves from proceeding uncontrollably to average global temperature increases of 3°, 4°, 5°, and 6° Celsius (5.4°, 7.2°, 9°, and 10.8° Fahrenheit respectively.)
Once we cross the 2° Celsius (the carbon 425-450 ppm level,) the higher mass extinction accelerating temperature levels of 3°, 4°, 5°, and even 6° Celsius will be all but locked in! According to James Hansen, one of the world's most influential climate researchers, a carbon 450 ppm level would eventually develop into an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century and be the end of human civilization as we've come to know it.
In many places on this website, Job one for Humanity has said that because we have wasted 60 years of scientific warnings and did little to fix global heating, we now face the unavoidable extinction of about half of Humanity by mid-century. We hope you can see how with global temperatures reaching just 2-3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, this horrendous extinction is not only possible, it is inevitable.
Unfortunately, there is nothing we can do to change the 60 years of our past climate inaction that will stop the mid-century extinction of about half of Humanity. But, we can still prevent our near-total extinction after mid-century by getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and with the help of Mother Nature and some human counteractions once we are finally motivated enough to make the harsh changes needed. (At some point, please click here to read how the counteractions of Mother Nature and our human systems will eventually kick in to save us from total extinction.)
At this point, because of the many increased temperatures being discussed, it is crucial to explain a bit further the global warming temperature-fed feedback loop. The hotter it gets, the more it amplifies and drives more intense global warming consequences, crossing more climate change tipping points and triggering more amplifying climate feedback loops.
Then, these more intense global warming consequences, additional crossed climate tipping points, and additional triggered amplifying climate feedback loops cause the temperature to rise even higher, which starts the cycle all over again. The bad news is that once this cycle gets going, it goes faster and faster like a train with no breaks running down a hill. That's more details about why they call it runaway global warming.
The uncontrollable continuous rise in average global temperature, which will cause mass starvation, death, and migration, will be due primarily to:
1. the major global warming consequences will continue to intensify and cross-react as heat rises.
The following illustration will help you visualize how future global warming consequences will intensify separately and together as we cross more tipping points and global temperatures rise. Imagine all of these global warming consequences whirling around, colliding with, and amplifying each other because of the agitation and "boiling effect" of ever-rising heat. This motion is similar to how the rising heat under a steam cooker churns, whirls, and collides the boiling water inside the steam cooker faster and more violently.
As increasing heat boils our planet, just like boiling water in a pot, the above global warming consequences will intensify and increase in severity, frequency, and scale! (To learn about exactly how the escalating 20 worst global warming consequences will cause mass starvation, death, and migration as well as social, economic, and political chaos, click here.)
2. more global warming consequences (listed above) will go into positive feedback loops as temperatures rise. Think of a positive feedback loop as a small stimulus that then amplifies a specific effect or consequence, causing it to get bigger and bigger. For example, if you hold a microphone too close to a music amplifier, there will be an irritating scratchy distortion of sound that "feeds back" to the amplifier getting louder and louder the longer the microphone is held closer and closer to the amplifier source.
3. our being unable to stop ourselves from crossing more global warming tipping points. Crossing more tipping points will again trigger other positive feedback loops and points of no return within the systems and subsystems of the global climate. It will also cause global warming tipping points to interact with each other cumulatively.
4. our continuing to cross "points of no return" within the global warming tipping points processes. Tipping point processes have within them definite points of no return. Once a tipping point's point of no return is crossed, crossing that tipping point is all but inevitable. Once that occurs, things usually collapse quickly, and recovery is typically slow, complex, costly, or downright impossible.
5. the accelerating heat-producing carbon and other greenhouse gas momentum (we will continue to add more fossil fuel burning carbon to the atmosphere every additional year (currently at the rate of about three carbon ppm per year.)
6. profound human system inertia and numerous other human system maladaptation factors will make it difficult to fix this extinction emergency or recover from it. (Described in detail on this page.)
Because of the preceding, we have no other rational alternative than to prevent crossing into the hazardous transitional carbon 425-450 ppm threshold range and tipping point. At our current carbon and other greenhouse gas atmospheric pollution rate, entering this range will, unfortunately, begin sometime around 2025 if we do not get very close to the correct and honest 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets.
There is something we can always be sure of in this horrible emergency. No matter what and despite all of the challenges and painful tipping point outcomes that are coming, the single constant truth for the best possible climate outcome for humanity in this emergency is that the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use:
a. the more people we will survive to carry on humanity, life, and our beautiful civilization, and
b. future generations will suffer less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences.
In the illustration below, you will see a red vertical line the "Must never pass, last chance battle line and range of carbon 425 to 450 ppm." As you can see, going over the carbon 425 ppm leads us to a very steep downward, darker red slope toward our rapid extinction. (The illustration below also shows at what carbon ppm levels the six distinct phases of a Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown will occur (i.e., CS Phases 1-6 below.) After you complete the rest of this document, we strongly recommend that you review the detailed year-by-year global warming consequence timetables found in the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown. (As a reminder, the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown will be linked again at the bottom of this page.)
In summary of the first extinction-triggering tipping point, here is what is most important to remember about a failure to get close to our 2025 reduction targets and going over the carbon 425-450 ppm extinction-triggering tipping point:
1. Once we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, the frequency, severity, and scale of global warming consequences will go from gradual linear increases as they are now to exponential consequence increases! This exponential consequence explosion will begin within 3-9 years (2025-2031) as we cross this critical extinction triggering tipping point. (As of April of 2022, we are at carbon 421 ppm.)
Please, for effect, once again see the most current blue Atmospheric CO2 carbon graph (on this page) to see how dangerously close we are to this critical carbon 425 - 450 ppm tipping point already.
2. After we also go over the carbon 425-450 ppm range, the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century is assured and unavoidable. The mathematics and physics of atmospheric carbon and other greenhouse gases raising our temperature will climb exponentially after going over the carbon 425-450 ppm level. This additional greenhouse gas rise will drive our temperatures ever higher even faster up to and through at least two more extinction-accelerating tipping points and into the many other global warming consequences described both further below and in these primary and these secondary runaway global heating consequences.
3. After we cross the 425-450 ppm threshold, stopping this ever-increasing global warming temperature momentum will be like trying to stop a gigantic boulder from rolling faster and faster down a hill that keeps getting steeper and steeper.
4. We are in an unacknowledged climate change extinction emergency, and so far, our governments are not even close to reaching the critical 2025 targets.
5. If we do not come close to the 2025 targets, we lose our last chance to stop ourselves from going over additional and far worse global warming tipping points. These extra tipping points will cause near-total to total human extinction and economic, political, and social chaos within our lifetimes!
If we do not come close to the 2025 targets, our final window of opportunity to effectively control our destiny regarding preventing the other two near-total extinction-accelerating tipping points from being crossed closes. This unthinkable outcome is also why the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point level is our most crucial next tipping point to understand and respect. (More about what causes this near-complete loss of control of our global warming future will be explained in the following even worse climate tipping point sections below.)
6. The beginning of runaway global warming was initiated when we went over the climate cliff and crossed carbon 386 ppm in 2015. We will fully enter the unavoidable mass extinction level of climate change when we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold. This is the carbon level where we can no longer stop ourselves from crossing a cascade of more significant climate tipping points.
7. Mass human extinction will accelerate as we cross the 3° C level and pass beyond it. Once we cross the 2° Celsius (the carbon 425-450 ppm level,) the inevitable mass extinction accelerating temperature levels of 3°, 4°, 5°, and even 6° Celsius all will be all but locked in!
At 4° C, life will be a living hell for unlucky survivors. Crossing the carbon 450 ppm level will eventually develop into an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) well before the end of this century and be the end of human civilization as we've come to know it.
8. In case you have been tricked by massive fossil fuel industry propaganda campaigns and still believe some "new technology" will save us just in time. Get over that fairy tale.
We have only 3-8 years left to get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets or lose control of our climate change future. But, unfortunately, no new carbon removal technologies (or what we at Job One for Humanity call the magical carbon-sucking unicorns) will be able to save us in time.
Once we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, we will cross so many additional climate tipping points and trigger so many climate change feedback loops that carbon and methane levels in the atmosphere will start to skyrocket far, far beyond where they are now. Carbon and methane released from the tundra, permafrost, and forests are growing fast. Soon the oceans and soils will also start releasing massive amounts of carbon at levels no "new technology" will be able to keep up with or reverse for centuries.
The highly-touted fossil fuel industry's heavily-lobbied carbon removal technology fails because even those who believe this technology might save us are projecting that it will not be scaled up enough to make a significant difference until sometime after 2050. Unfortunately, this 2050 date is long after irreversible climate damage has been done, and long after, anything can be done for billions who will suffer and die!
(Please click here if you still have any illusions about new and heavily promoted carbon removal technology miraculously saving us at the last minute. The science and math there will help you understand that the only way out of this imminent extinction catastrophe is to radically reduce global fossil fuel use globally to come very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.)
Additionally, it is not just carbon capture "new technologies" that are unworkable when one confronts the honest global fossil fuel reduction deadlines we now face and their many primary and secondary consequences. No miracle "new technology" (like solar screening, geo-engineering, etc.) currently exists at the needed scale or cost efficiency capable of saving humanity from our accelerating global heating nightmare before about half of humanity is dead. No "new technology will magically get us to close to painful 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets in time.
The widely promised miracle "new technologies" that will save us from climate extinction are fossil fuel industry-supported illusions and false solutions. They intentionally act to hide the absolute urgency of the runaway global heating emergency and the fossil fuel profit-killing reality that we must radically reduce global fossil fuels use now!
1. None of the current miracle "new technology" climate solutions can come even close to globally scaling up in time to compensate for our significantly missing the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
2. Most have not yet been proven to work (even at a small scale.)
3. All have not been adequately tested at a sufficiently large enough scale for unintended side effects. Any unknown and unintended side effects could create even more significant problems than the problems they were designed to solve.
4. They all appear to be prohibitively costly and financially unsustainable.
5. Many burn so much fossil fuel trying to remove atmospheric carbon or geo-engineer the planet or atmosphere that their massive fossil fuel use eliminates their benefits. Additionally, massive amounts of energy will be needed to process the required raw materials and fabricate the solutions to implement the new technologies. To do this quickly, existing methods must provide the energy, which would further delay reaching global fossil fuel reduction goals. And finally. And worst of all,
6. These miracle "new technologies" falsely promise that we can continue our lives of over-consuming, overpopulating, polluting, and burning fossil fuels exactly as we are now or with little painless change. Nothing could be further from the truth if we want to survive.
Furthermore, society is ignoring that we are reaching limits to the availability of many natural resources. To build these proposed new technologies, vital materials will be required in such tremendous amounts that routine daily needs would be severely impacted.
Possibly after 2050, some new technology will be tested, safe and deployable at scale and reasonable costs to contribute in some minor way to restoring our climate stability. But none of these new technologies can replace the urgent, immediate requirement to radically reduce all global fossil fuel use to get close to the correct and honest 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
Hoping for some "new technology" to be discovered at the last minute to miraculously save us is a horrible personal, corporate, or national strategy dooming us to fail ourselves into extinction and chaos.
9. The only effective way to prevent our near-total extinction from the primary and secondary consequences of climate change is to get as close to the correct and honest 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
10. James Hansen, a former NASA climate scientist, and leading climate researcher, said that we should be safe if we stayed below an atmospheric carbon level of 350 parts per million (ppm). However, he also said that if we go beyond an atmospheric carbon level of about 386 ppm, we will enter into a state of runaway global heating. As of March of 2022, we were at carbon 421 ppm. We are already deep into runaway global warming and racing towards mass extinction.
Additional thoughts on the critical importance of the carbon 425-450 ppm first extinction-triggering tipping point and the probable sequences of cataclysmic climate events as we approach and cross it
Because we have ignored decades of climate warming, we are already deep into the climate change trajectory toward extinction and the collapse of civilization. This collapse outcome is highly likely because nine of the known global warming and climate change tipping points that regulate the climatic state of the planet have already been activated.
In alignment with the above illustration, please take the time to read about one very hazardous glacier collapse in particular. It is genuinely critical to your immediate future well-being. Click here to read about the 2-3 foot quick and severe global sea level rise consequences of the Thwaites "doomsday glacier." It will describe our first truly global climate catastrophe. This soon collapsing massive glacier will give you a glimpse into the global economic, social, and political turmoil this single glacier will create.
Here is an recent update on the Atlantic ocean current tipping point. Current Earth system computer models (ESMs) project a dramatic slowing (28–42% by 2100) of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC) across a range of climate scenarios, with a complete shutdown of SMOC possible by the year 2300. These newest predictions for ocean current slowdown are decades ahead of previous climate-related forecasts. Maintaining this critical ocean current at the same pre-climate change speed it has held for thousands of years is essential to humanity's future survival. This ocean current slowdown is a massive climate change tipping point with many impacts; see this article.
Most of the above-activated tipping points can and will trigger abrupt and significant releases of carbon back into the atmosphere, such as the release of carbon dioxide and methane caused by the irreversible thawing of the Arctic permafrost. After the above global warming tipping points are crossed, additional warming would become self-sustaining due to both positive feedback loops within the climate system and the mutual interaction of these global warming tipping points.
It is best to think about the above nine interacting global warming tipping points within the climate system like a row of dominos. These climate system tipping points are so interconnected that knocking over the first couple of "dominos" will most likely lead to a cascade knocking over many, if not all, of them. Once the above global warming tipping point "dominos" lock into their falling cascade, we are already at a point of global and societal no return.
It is not just us saying this:
Because of these global warming tipping points and positive feedback loops, Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director emeritus and founder of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, believes that if we go much above 2° C, we will quickly get to 4° C anyway and, a 4° C increase would also spell the end of a tolerable human civilization.
Johan Rockström, the head of one of Europe's leading research institutes, warned that in a 4°C warmer world, it would be "difficult to see how we could accommodate a billion people or even half of that. Not even a rich minority world survive with modern lifestyles in the post-4°C-warmer turbulent, conflict-ridden world".
Many other climate scientists have warned that once the climate warms 4 degrees C over our preindustrial average global temperature, human adaptation to these temperature levels will be all but impossible!
Leading Stanford University biologists released new research recently showing species extinctions are accelerating in an unprecedented manner. The rapid loss of biodiversity is another likely and already occurring tipping point for the collapse of human civilization. (These are the same Stanford biologists who were first to warn us that we are already experiencing the sixth mass extinction on Earth.)
Many climate researchers also believe that we entered into extinction-level runaway global warming long before we will hit carbon 425 ppm and even before we hit carbon 386 ppm. Like the NASA scientist James Hansen, who warned 40+ years ago about climate extinction, many climate researchers hold that global warming tipping points and amplifying positive climate feedback loops act to "stack up" on each other and magnify their combined adverse effects. They maintain that we entered into runaway global warming (because of the stacking effect) as soon as we crossed carbon 350 ppm, just as James Hansen predicted.
Soon we will lose control of the tipping points for the Amazon rainforest, the West Antarctic ice sheet, and the Greenland ice sheet in much less time than it's going to take us to get to any dubious and unenforceable global national net-zero emissions pledges.
There is an additional and crucial way to think about the race to reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets before we cross more of the extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points. Imagine that the captain on the Titanic suddenly sees the iceberg in front of him. To slow and steer the Titanic away from the iceberg, he needs at least 3 miles, but he is only 1 mile away from the iceberg. In this example, the titanic is already doomed when the captain notices the iceberg.
This Titanic example is not much different than our current situation. We have already gone over the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff. We are doing very poorly toward reaching the last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. We have wasted so much time over the previous decades ignoring valid scientific warnings; we have very little time remaining to "steer" away from extinction.
We already have a baked-in minimal 1.5 - 2 degrees C in average global temperature increase. We also have initiated the global climate tipping point cascade effect, which will quickly get us to 4°C and the collapse of a civilization in which no one would want to exist. This 4°C alone will rapidly take us to a far less habitable planet and climate regardless of any additional global fossil fuel reductions we might now make.
In the image above, the unillustrated Planetary Threshold dividing line is the climate cliff previously mentioned of carbon 386 ppm. As one can see, once we crossed that carbon 386 ppm Planetary Threshold line, the stability of our climate rapidly collapses into an over-heating, uninhabitable Earth!
Here are the most probable carbon feedback loops, carbon sink losses, points of no return, and tipping points accelerating after we crossed the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff in 2015
1. Decreased albedo from reduced snow cover and melting Arctic ice increasing the earth's average global temperature,
2. Increased sea ice and glacier melt resulting in additional sea-level rise,
3. Increased atmospheric water vapor increases resulting in more extreme weather,
4. Increased permafrost and tundra heating, releasing more carbon and methane, resulting in more heat, disease epidemics, and possible pandemics. This tundra heating speeds up the process of more positive feedback loops and crossing more points of no return and tipping points.
(Please note that rapidly melting tundra permafrost is also because the northernmost areas are warming twice as fast as the rest of the world.) This permafrost melting also can cause local and global pandemics caused by ancient viruses and bacteria being released from the permafrost. They have already had localized anthrax and smallpox outbreaks in Siberia because of the bacteria and viruses released from the decomposition of ancient frozen animals from the melting permafrost and tundra. Unfortunately, the Siberian residents had no existing immunity to these diseases and were not prepared to deal with these outbreaks due to a lack of available vaccines.
5. Decreased carbon capture from the world's forests as temperatures rise and forests go from removing carbon from the atmosphere to carbon-neutral (no longer removing carbon from the atmosphere.) Carbon neutral is the state that occurs just before overheated over-stressed forests next begin to release carbon back into the atmosphere!
(Click here to learn more about each item listed above.)
Here are the most likely keystone tipping points to be crossed after we crossed the carbon 386 climate cliff in 2015
There is an extinction tipping point area that is the most likely first candidate to accelerate the beginning of the end of humanity. It is the increased melting of summer and year-round arctic polar ice due to global warming.
It will genuinely have profound effects not only on worldwide weather stability but, more importantly, on significantly lowering global crop yields and significantly increasing global crop failures. Eventually, this will cause accelerating and massive global starvation, which will then also destabilize national economics, politics, and society.
In the summer, when the Arctic ice melts, there is less cooling of all growing season areas affected anywhere by arctic weather. Therefore, the more polar ice melts each year, the less cooling and the more heat and drought during the critical growing season in arctic-affected areas.
Food crops are more sensitive to heat when there are droughts and, they are more sensitive to heat, rain bombs, and cold spells when they are just beginning to grow. Unfortunately, because more ice is melting in the Arctic ocean almost every summer and staying melted longer in the year, we are losing more and more critical cooling for our vital food crops. As a result, we are losing stable growing seasons.
The five major food grains are the largest source of the world's food supply. They are corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, and sorghum.
All of these grains have upper and lower temperature limits. Most of them cannot survive more than ten days during their growing season over 100° Fahrenheit. This is particularly true if this heat comes early in their growing season or when their soils are drought dry.
Because of the continually increasing loss of the cooling effect on growing regions below the Arctic because of the constantly diminishing Arctic ice, the number of growing season days with temperatures over 100° will continue increasing steadily as more and more Arctic ice melts and remains melted longer throughout the year. (We estimate within a decade or so, we could have as many as 30 days of 100-degree heat during the growing season in many critical crop-growing areas.)
Because melting Arctic ice also affects and disrupts the jet stream and ocean currents like the Gulf Stream, you will also have extreme and unseasonable cold spells appearing during the prime crop growing seasons worldwide. These cold spells will also further reduce food yields and produce more crop failures during the fragile growing season.
This again means that the world will continue to experience more and larger crop reductions and failures as more polar ice melts and stays melted longer. Corn is one of the most significant food staples for humanity, and it is also one of the most sensitive crops to increasing 100 degrees plus temperatures and drought.
The following is from Wikipedia:
"Since 1979, the minimum annual area of sea ice in the Arctic has dropped by about 40%, as measured each September. From sea ice models and recent satellite images, we can expect that an Arctic sea ice-free summer will come before 2020. Models that best match historical trends project a nearly ice-free Arctic in the summer by the 2030s. However, these models do tend to underestimate the rate of sea ice loss since 2007." (If you would like to see a video of how more polar ice is melting each summer as the years go by, click here for this NASA video.)
The increasing melting of arctic polar ice is a clear and glaring warning sign of increasing global warming and future severe reductions in future crop yields, as well as dangerous increases in future crop failures. These crop failures will also mean higher prices and ever-increasing food scarcity, and increasing global starvation.
This Arctic crop stability problem is not something far-off in the future. On the contrary, it is already happening in many world areas.
It is also already causing large human migrations. The expanding and increasing polar ice melting is a primary "canary in the coal mine" for increasing future mass starvation not way off in 2100 as we have been told, but now and in years the decade to follow.
Already in the growing belt of the United States, we are seeing increased and record-breaking heat, droughts, rain bombs, Derechos, and other extreme unseasonal weather that directly affects crop yields and crop failures in the most vulnerable areas. This pattern of greater crop yield reductions and crop failures will continue to increase as long as more polar ice disappears and the Arctic remains relatively ice-free into longer and longer summers. As the process of massive crop reductions and failures expand and continue, mass starvation will begin to destabilize all of our other economic, social, and political systems.
Reduced polar ice also reduces the albedo effect because white snow or ice reflects heat away from the earth and into the atmosphere, keeping the world cooler. However, as more Arctic polar ice is melted, the darker polar oceans absorb the heat and then heat up more, which once again causes more global warming.
As global temperatures continue rising, the time frames in which we will be crossing more of the tipping points listed above will get shorter. But that will not be the only significant effect of the melting Arctic ice due to global warming. Paradoxically, according to new studies, we will also have more extreme cold and heavier snows during the US winters because of melting Arctic ice.
In general, you can count on that increased crop yield reductions and crop failures will increasingly occur because of arctic ice melt, increased heat, increased droughts, increased cold spells, increased rain bombs, and extreme weather storms. This will make it more and more impossible for modern agriculture and the major food crops to survive throughout their current growing seasons. There are estimates that crop yield reductions and crop failures will average 5 to 10% or more for each degree Fahrenheit that the average global temperature rises. This will continue until the planet becomes so warm that too many days of the growing season will be at 100° or more. This will make successfully growing the world's five major grains all but impossible.
The carbon 386 ppm climate cliff and its 1.5 C temperature increase threshold was the last threshold for excluding humanity's mass extinction threat by mid-century. Staying below 1.5 C was also the final threshold where we could have prevented a significant acceleration in crossing other more dangerous global warming tipping points.
One can see from the preceding that while we all do our best to encourage our governments to meet the 2025 targets, it is also now wise to start a personal global warming emergency backup plan and "Plan B!"
New technology will not be able to save us in time!
Many people falsely believe that geoengineering, carbon capture, or some other new miracle technology will ride in like a knight on a white horse at the last minute to save humanity from the natural consequences of its decades of previous bad climate decisions, actions, inactions, and mistakes.
In the media, we regularly hear about these new technologies that will save for climate change. Directly or indirectly, these new technologies promise that somehow we can still continue living our lives over-consuming, polluting, and burning fossil fuels exactly as we are now.
The bad news is that these promised new technologies are false solutions that suffer from one or more of the following deadly problems:
1. Most have not yet been proven to work even at a small scale.
2. They have not been adequately tested at a sufficient scale for any unintended side effects, which could create greater problems than the problems they are designed to solve.
3. They are prohibitively costly.
4. They burn so much fossil fuel trying to remove atmospheric carbon or geo-engineer the atmosphere that they realistically cancel out their benefit. And finally,
5. None of the current "new technology" solutions can come even close to globally scaling up in time (over the required next three years) to get close to, or compensate for missing the 2025 global targets, to prevent humanity's mass to near-total extinction.
(Click here to read more about why this fairy tale carbon capture technology is not going to happen or will be "too little too late" to save us.)
We are cautionary and warn people about the pitfalls of techno-optimism and the engineer's limited and mechanistic view of complex adaptive systems (the climate, biological and social systems, etc.). But, it does not mean we are anti-technology.
Our position on the use of technology is best described by the term Appropriate Technology. Appropriate technology is a movement encompassing technological choice and application that is small-scale, affordable by locals, decentralized, labor-intensive, energy-efficient, environmentally sustainable, and locally autonomous. Unfortunately, the miracle "new technology" solutions proposed for climate change are far from the best appropriate technology principles.
Allowing an atmospheric carbon 425-450 ppm level ever to be reached is humanity playing with fire and betting the house (its survival) on both being insanely lucky and on nonexistent or insufficient new remedial technologies
Humanity thrived for almost 1,000,000 years when the historical interglacial high atmospheric carbon levels remained within the carbon range of 270-280 ppm.
Decades ago, climate scientists warned us that when we crossed the atmospheric carbon 350 ppm level, humanity would be unsafe from horrible consequences and even extinction, and we were on the way to runaway global warming.
Measuring the most dangerous greenhouse gases of atmospheric carbon [CO2,] methane [C4,] and nitrous dioxide [No2] are the best ways to measure the increasing threat level of global heating consequences. These measurements are also one of the best ways to predict future global heating and temperature levels.
In the illustration below, on the left vertical axis are atmospheric measuring levels for both carbon and nitrous dioxide in parts per million [ppm.] On the right vertical axis, you see the measuring level for atmospheric methane in parts per billion [ppb.] Across the bottom of the illustration is the last 2,000+ years.
The red, blue, and black lines moving from left to right across the illustration tell the painful story of human history and the pollution of our atmosphere. The illustration clearly shows what happened when humanity began the fossil fuel-powered industrial revolution in the late 1700s to early 1800s.
Here is a bit more about our atmospheric carbon history and its meaning. Many climate researchers believe we are already in the beginning stages of runaway global warming and have been so for quite a while. (Think of runaway global warming like a train rolling down a steep hill with no brakes.)
What most people do not understand about what helps cause runaway global warming within the climate's systems and subsystems is that crossed climate tipping points will create a higher new global temperature that also will trigger more climate tipping points and more amplifying climate feedback loops. By themselves alone, more triggered climate tipping points and climate feedback loops will increase heating within the climate system, producing more severe consequences. Each add-on new tipping point and feedback loop helps create a growing "stack" of overlapping temperature-increasing mechanisms fueling runaway global warming!
At some point, triggering the next climate tipping point or feedback loop will initiate an unstoppable domino effect, which will trigger even more tipping points and amplify more feedback loops at faster and faster rates. Once this level is reached, the tipping point and feedback loop "stacking" effect ensure that a self-sustaining cycle of feedback loops that will repeatedly create the next higher level of temperatures and more severe consequences.
The stacking effect was predicted decades ago by one of the world's most respected NASA climate scientists, James Hansen. Hansen said that if the atmospheric CO2 level reached and stayed at only the carbon 385 ppm level and was allowed to sit there for many years, it alone could kick off a climate tipping point and feedback loop stacking effect. He warned that this stacking effect would lead to an unstoppable chain reaction to higher and higher temperatures (hence runaway global warming.)
So here is the tough love. Humanity thrived successfully for millennia when atmospheric carbon was at the 270 to 280 ppm-level. We went over the climate cliff in 2015 when we hit carbon 386 ppm level. Within the next 2-3 years, we will pass the carbon 425 ppm level.
We would have stayed safe from runaway global warming if we ONLY had stayed below the carbon 350 ppm level. According to James Hansen, since we passed the carbon 386 ppm in 2015, we have already triggered the stacking effect. We already have activated the crossing of ever more climate tipping points and feedback loops.
Brace yourself. As of April of 2022, we were at carbon 421 ppm. From the preceding, one can see that this carbon 421 level is far, far beyond any reasonable and safe atmospheric carbon level and far into the stacking effect of runaway global warming.
(If you still have any doubts about what the stacking effect of amplifying climate feedback loops means or what climate tipping points are, why they will help cause an exponential rise in climate consequences or their importance to your future, a new video has come out called Earth Emergency. It takes you through the most dangerous climate feedbacks and tipping points in an easy-to-understand way. This public broadcasting (PBS) video also makes many of the key points that we are making on this website. Click here to see this "don't miss it" super simple video.)
At the carbon 421 ppm level, our atmospheric carbon level is about 155% greater than the humanity-thriving level of carbon 270 ppm. One has to wonder, how much higher does this percentage of atmospheric carbon have to rise beyond the last safe level of carbon 350 ppm, before we collectively finally realize we are in a grave extinction danger?
Allowing an atmospheric carbon level of 425-450 ppm ever to be reached is humanity playing with fire and betting the house (near-total extinction) on being both insanely lucky and on nonexistent or insufficient new greenhouse gas remedial technologies.
No matter how you look at it, we are at a completely immoral and insane risk level to the survivability of humanity. We are already living beyond the highest possible danger zone.
If we are very, very fortunate, and it is not already too late, we may have another 3 to 9 years before crossing over the 425-450 ppm threshold and into the full-on runaway global warming where global heating and the extinction emergency goes out of our control for centuries, but we indeed do not have any more time than that.
We are at our absolute last chance, 3 to 9-year warning!
Either we make the necessary and radical 2025 global fossil fuel reductions, or we face near-total extinction that survivors may never be able to reverse for centuries to thousands of years.
On the other hand, if we miss this last three to nine-year opportunity to prevent our extinction, we can at least hope to slow it down to have more time to get ourselves ready for near-total extinction.
"We have delayed facing and fixing the climate change emergency for decades, and it has now reached an insane climate change extinction risk level. This extinction risk level is so high that it is comparable to humanity playing Russian roulette with a gun where every chamber of the revolver has a bullet in it, and every bullet is an extinction-accelerating tipping point or catastrophic amplifying climate feedback loop." Lawrence Wollersheim
What we do in the next three to nine years in getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets will determine the survival and future of much of humanity. And, if we do not fix this, it will also be many of the lives of Earth's plants, and animals that will suffer our same horrible fate.
If our governments fail to act, few, if any, will survive. Even fewer individuals would want to exist in the over-heated world we would leave them.
If you have any doubts about what amplifying climate feedback loops or climate tipping points are, or their importance to your future, a new video has come out called Earth Emergency. It takes you through the most dangerous climate feedbacks and tipping points in an easy-to-understand way. This public broadcasting (PBS) video also makes the key points that we are making on this website. Click here to see this "don't miss it" super simple video.
(Special note 4.22.2022: There is a lively ongoing conflict between various climate change researchers. Some believe we are already in a state of runaway global warming, and there is nothing we can do about it at our current greenhouse gas levels. This group believes we are already headed to near-total to total human extinction.
Another group of climate researchers believes that we still may be able to prevent near-total extinction (but not avoid mass extinction) if we can do the nearly impossible task of cutting global fossil fuel use by 75% to at least get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets discussed here.
Other climate researchers using grossly underestimated and distorted IPCC calculations believe we have until about 2030- 2040 to make much smaller global fossil fuel reductions and still save humanity.
Our website reflects the ongoing conflicts within researcher positional differences. As an organization, we currently believe that the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century is unavoidable. However, we still may be able to prevent near-total extinction if we can do the near-impossible task of cutting global fossil fuel use by close to 75% to get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets discussed here. (Please note we may have as long as 2031 to get close to these 2025 targets before we cross the far side of this carbon 425-450 ppm threshold level when we finally reach carbon 450 ppm.)
Because we believe the probability of getting close to the 2025 reduction targets even by 2031 will be very, very challenging, we also have created an action program that compensates for this probable failure to prevent climate change from reaching severe extinction levels. We hope that this clarification helps our readers better understand our current position and our Job One action plan.
Please help share these ten critical climate facts everywhere! Unfortunately, at best, we have only 3 to 9 more years to fix this climate nightmare.)
Reviewing the most misunderstood climate danger because it means our survival or extinction
What not coming close to the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets means, and what is at stake:
1. If we fail, we will not be able to slow down the unavoidable extinction of half or more of humanity by mid-century. (Mass extinction is most associated with having already crossed the carbon 386 ppm threshold.)
2. Only by coming very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets do we have any reasonable chance of preventing an even worse, near-total extinction event from ending humanity and civilization beginning as soon as 2070.
3. Because near-total extinction is now associated with crossing the atmospheric carbon threshold of carbon 425 - 450 ppm and the eventual higher temperatures produced when we cross that threshold, we only have about 3 to about 9 more years to be able to prevent our near-total extinction. (Carbon is currently accumulating in the atmosphere at about three carbon ppm per year.)
4. Unfortunately, we also have two additional super-dangerous extinction-accelerating tipping points after the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point threshold.
5. After crossing the carbon 425-450 level, the following three extinction-producing tipping points are FAR worse than what you have read above! they will create both extinction level and Venus affect level runaway global warming.
6. Crossing the Carbon 425-450 ppm threshold means that it is virtually impossible to save about half of humanity from extinction by about mid-century.
Continue reading to learn about those two even worse climate extinction-triggering tipping points.
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The second global warming extinction-accelerating tipping point and the third phase of runaway global heating will be crossed as soon as 2042-2067 or earlier: It creates a runaway global ice melt
Failing to reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets is simply not a rational option! But, if we do fail, here is more on how mass human extinction, as well as economic, political, and social chaos, will become our shared future from crossing the next 2 critical global warming tipping points within the next few decades.
As the current carbon rises, we will cross the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction level as we continue crossing more of the 11 critical global warming tipping points within the climate’s many systems and subsystems, but now at an even faster rate. Once we go over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point, we will inevitably cross the carbon 500 ppm level as soon as 2042-2067 or earlier. (Which tipping points we cross and how much and how fast we add additional carbon to our atmosphere will determine when in that 2042-2067 time range we will hit carbon 500 ppm.)
When we cross the carbon 500 ppm level, ALL ice and ALL glaciers on Earth will enter a near-unstoppable process of a complete meltdown! Yes, you read that right! At carbon 500 ppm we begin the melting of all global ice.
Crossing the carbon 500 ppm threshold has, in fact, repeatedly happened in Earth's geological history. When it occurred, the sea level inevitably rose to the 70 meters (230 feet) range. At our current annual carbon ppm emission rates, we will reach this catastrophic carbon 500 ppm range in just 20-25 more years. Worse yet, this global melting tipping point may not reverse itself for centuries to thousands of years once we stop carbonizing our atmosphere.
If we cross that critical tipping point passing the atmospheric carbon level of 500 parts per million (ppm), our average global temperature will eventually soar to 4°C (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit). At 4°C, a large portion of humanity (hundreds of millions to billions) will die of starvation (or die and suffer from increased heat or the other runaway global heating-related consequences.) Governments and society will collapse in most areas of the world between the 35th parallel north and the 35th parallel south.
Even though it will take many centuries for the seas to rise the full 230 feet, there still will be shocking spurts of sea-level rise within those centuries where the sea level rise up to 10 feet or more in just a few decades as it also has done repeatedly in Earth's past. The sudden multi-decade spurts of sea level rise will displace billions of people from their coastal or close to waterway homes, and hundreds of millions or more will die in the ensuing displacement turmoil.
Take a moment to visualize the seas eventually but steadily and in sudden spurts rising 230 feet and what this will mean to our coastal cities, our national borders, and the generations that follow us. Take a moment to visualize the ever-increasing massive worldwide crop failures because of the ever-increasing heat and the consequent mass suffering of slow starvation as we approach and pass the carbon 500 ppm level.
Take a moment to let the following really sink in. Anything at or above a 4°Celcius increase in average global temperature would be incompatible with an organized global society and would be beyond adaptation! This temperature and carbon level would also virtually guarantee we eventually could hit carbon 600 ppm. When we cross the carbon 500 ppm tipping point, we cross a steeper, even more, slippery slope, and we could quickly reach the carbon 600 ppm extinction level tipping point within another 25-30 years (as soon as 2063-2072 or earlier.)
When this happens, we will greatly accelerate the process of crossing even more global warming tipping points. As a type of positive feedback loop, this will once again further spike the average global temperature.
It will also help you to understand how fast future global warming will intensify using the illustration below if you imagine all of the global warming tipping points whirling around and colliding into each other because of the "boiling effect" or agitation of ever-increasing heat. This is much like how the rising heat under a steam cooker whirls and churns the water inside faster and faster. (To learn more about how crossing critical global warming tipping points like those in the illustration below accelerate consequences, causes sudden and complete system collapses, makes recovery much slower, harder, and more expensive, and function, click here.)
If we pass this second tipping point, global warming consequences will continue accelerating exponentially in frequency, severity, and scale.
But please also realize that it is currently unlikely that humanity will allow itself to reach this carbon 500 ppm level and go beyond the already unavoidable extinction of about half of humanity into the beginning phases of a near-total extinction process. Humanity's likely inability to reach or go much beyond the carbon 500 ppm level will be due to the many natural and human counteractions of the Great Die-off taking over.
On Earth, nothing takes place in a vacuum. For every action, there is a counteraction. If you have not done so already, please click here to take the time to read about the good news of many powerful natural and human simultaneous counteractions to the above global runaway heating consequences.
These crucial counteractions should occur with sufficient impact, power, and timing to prevent humanity from reaching the carbon 500 ppm level or much beyond it, but about half of humanity will be unable to avoid extinction because of our 60 years of recklessly ignoring the warnings of our best climate scientists.
Why about half of humanity will go extinct by about mid-century?
At this point, you should begin to be able to see why about half of humanity will unavoidably start into their extinction process once we pass the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold (starting in about 2030) and as we approach the carbon 500 ppm level (around about 2050-2060.) The extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century will not come about only because of:
a. soaring temperatures,
b. failed or low-yield crops and mass starvation,
c. growing climate mass migration,
d. climate-related resource and distribution shortages, and
e. intensifying climate-related land and resource conflicts.
In addition to the climate consequences already occurring in a-e above, the extinction of about half of humanity will continue moving forward and accelerating because of the many other climate-related or climate-triggered primary and secondary consequences listed on this critical page. These additional climate consequences will intensify, randomly (or periodically,) growing more frequent, or covering larger areas, which cumulatively and collectively, and in total effect will create the many causes for the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century.
Cumulatively and collectively, the combined effect of many of the primary and secondary climate consequences listed on this page could just as easily cause humanity's near-total or even total extinction if we let our atmospheric carbon level go much beyond carbon 500 ppm.
After one comes to fully understand the many accumulating and intensifying primary and secondary climate consequences, the only rational option is to get as close to the 2025 global fossil fuel targets as possible to limit humanity's damages to the extinction of only about half of humanity by mid-century.
(If you have not done so already, we strongly recommend reading the primary and secondary climate consequences listed on this page after you have completed this article. Once you have done that additional reading, the painful reality and probability of half of humanity going extinct by mid-century will also become more accurate and probable.
Never forget that crossing the carbon 500 ppm threshold means that it also may no longer be possible to save about three-fourths of humanity from extinction by about 2060-2080.
The third global heating extinction-expanding tipping point (and the fourth phase of runaway global heating) will probably be crossed as soon as 2063-2072 or earlier. It creates runaway methane releases and the beginning of a total human extinction scenario.
If we cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction level, it will result in raising the average global temperature to 5°C (9 degrees Fahrenheit) and bring about massive methane clathrate releases from coastal ocean shelves as it has done before in the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum 56 million years ago, and most notably the Permian–Triassic extinction event, when up to 96% of all marine species became extinct, 252 million years ago. (Please click here to watch a short video that brilliantly explains the extinction process once we start releasing methane clathrate from our coastal shelves. New research shows we actually begin this new methane release process once we reach 5°C, and by 6°C, it is in full bloom. Also, methane releases from the permafrost will also increase at significantly faster rates at these higher temperatures.)
Because methane, when released as a gas from permafrost or fracking or as gas from methane clathrate, is 86 times more potent than carbon as a temperature-increasing greenhouse gas, it will once again rapidly spike up the average global temperatures.
The following is a methane graph (found at https://www.methanelevels.org) in which you can see how total atmospheric methane levels from all sources have exponentially skyrocketed, particularly during the last 50 years.
If it continues to rise from there toward the carbon 600 ppm final tipping point and an average global temperature of 5°C, it will eventually bring about the near-total extinction of most if not all of humanity and the end of civilization as we know it in the final phases of the Climageddon Scenario.
(Please note: Unless we get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by 2031 at the latest, there is no mathematical way for us to prevent crossing the carbon 500 ppm tipping point where all ice on earth will melt! Beyond its mathematical certainty, there are numerous climate scientists who believe that crossing the carbon 500 ppm is ALREADY inevitable because we will soon cross other climate, biological and human system tipping points covered at the top of this page. This does not even include the other accelerating global warming positive feedback loops already occurring throughout our climate system. (Positive feedback loops enhance or amplify changes; this also (like tipping points) tends to move a system away from its equilibrium state and make it more unstable.)
The same climate scientists who believe that we cannot prevent crossing carbon 500 also believe that no matter what we do, we have already missed our window of opportunity and control to prevent carbon 600 ppm. Furthermore, they believe that once we have crossed the carbon 500 ppm level, we will not be able to keep from reaching carbon 800 ppm (the near-final phase of the Climageddon Scenario.) (Reaching carbon 800 ppm would once again be because of continuing to add more carbon into the atmosphere and because of the total accumulating effects of crossing more and more global warming tipping points that will continue occurring even more rapidly after we cross the carbon 500 ppm threshold.)
Our reading of the current science indicates that if we do not immediately get close to the previously described 2025 radical fossil fuel reductions, we will cross the carbon 600 ppm level. But, if we do enact the necessary radical 2025 fossil fuel cuts immediately, there is still an acceptable yet small possibility that we can still slow down our crossing of the carbon 600 ppm final tipping point or, at least long enough so that we can save some small portion of humanity and transfer needed infrastructure into the global warming safer zones. (We may be able to save humanity from near-total extinction by also immediately enacting ALL of the actions described in part three of the Job One Plan.)
At worst, even if we can not still prevent crossing the carbon 600 ppm level, we can at least slow it down as well as some of the other worst coming global warming consequences. While even slowing down our crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point will be a Herculean task of massive global governmental cooperation and mobilization, the probability that we can at least temporarily slow and delay some of the other of the 20 worst global warming consequences by getting close to our 2025 targets by 2031 at the lettest is still reasonable, but more importantly, this will allow us more time to get prepared for the many global warming consequences we can no longer avoid no matter what we do.)
It is important to be realistic in your future planning. As you can see, the probability that we will cross the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point is far too high. Additionally, the final window of opportunity to prevent crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point will close by 2025-2031 if we have not made the radical and immediate radical fossil fuel cuts necessary. This is because of the:
a. temperature momentum already "baked" into the climate system (the existing carbon 413 ppm level already in the atmosphere,)
b. the additional three or more carbon particles per million we continue to add to the atmosphere each year (as we continue failing to adequately reverse our fossil fuel use,) and
c. The additional global warming tipping points we will continue to cross I didn't even faster rate we will continue to cross I didn't even faster rate if we miss our 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets. And finally,
d. If we fail to reach or come close to the 2025 reduction targets, we are not just facing the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century, we are facing near-total extinction! This is because we could possibly cross the carbon 600 ppm-level. This is the level where we will also enter the last phases of run-away global heating! (If you are not sure about how much worse it can possibly get if we enter a run-away global heating near-total extinction phase, click its link in the previous sentence.)
Never also forget that at 5°C, which will occur once we hit carbon 600 ppm and above, more than half of humanity will already be dead by mid-century because of:
a. starvation because of the devastating effect that increased heat will have on crop failure or,
b. from global warming's other 19 worst consequences or 11 key tipping points.
Economies, governments, and societies will collapse in many areas of the world between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south.
As we reach the carbon 500 ppm and carbon 600 ppm tipping point levels, we will also cross into the later and most dangerous later phases (4 and 5) of the 6-phase of what we call the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown model or Climageddon Scenario. Review the following Climageddon Extinction Scenario illustration starting from the bottom up! The top of the illustration below shows you the later Climageddon Scenario consequences the bottom shows you the earlier consequences.
The largest illustration on this page below, the Global Warming and the Climageddon Scenario Cascading Meltdown reflect the unfolding natural progression of ever-worsening consequences, tipping points, and human system processes that will accelerate as global warming continues. These consequences, tipping points, and human systems will also synergetically and cumulatively collide with each other and adversely interact. It is these ever-increasing interactions among and between worsening global warming consequences, tipping points, and human systems that will make each of these things worse faster and faster.
This illustration reflects the core of the final processes that will lead to our mass extinction as well as into global economic, political, and social chaos. Its three levels of global warming interactions (consequences, tipping points, and human systems,) highlight the continuous onslaught of emergencies, crises, and catastrophes that we are already experiencing and which foretell our eventual extinction.
Starting reading this large illustration only from the bottom up because that is how it will unfold.
Take a moment and think about the bitter reality that when we reach the carbon 600 ppm tipping point (which can occur as soon as 2063-2072, or possibly earlier,) we trigger the final processes that will bring about the extinction of most of humanity by mid-century. (Which tipping points we cross and how much and how fast we add additional carbon to our atmosphere will determine when in that 2063-2072 time range we will hit carbon 600 ppm.)
But, long before we have reached the carbon 600 ppm level tipping point, humanity will be in a massive die-off and global civilization will have begun collapsing. But please also realize that it is highly unlikely that humanity will allow itself to reach this carbon 600 ppm level. Humanity's likely inability to reach carbon 600 ppm will be due to the many natural and human counteractions of the Great Die-off.
On Earth, nothing takes place in a vacuum. For every action, there is a counteraction. If you have not done so already, please click here to read about the many powerful natural and significant human simultaneous counteractions to the above global runaway heating consequences. Most importantly, these crucial counteractions should occur with sufficient impact and power to prevent humanity from ever reaching the carbon 600 ppm level.
If we do reach carbon 600 ppm
At or near carbon 600 ppm the unlucky survivors will enter into an ecological and climate hell and a new dark age that will make those survivors of the following centuries curse us and wish they were dead. Please also keep in mind that as we pass this third tipping point, global warming consequences will continue to accelerate exponentially in frequency, severity, and scale.
(The global warming consequences, tipping points, and human system factors (shown above) will be interacting and colliding with each other in 6 distinct phases and waves. At some point after you finish this document, we strongly recommend that you read about the 6 phases and waves of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and countdown here. In detail, it describes the timetables and consequences of our global warming future if we miss the 2025 targets.)
How the three previous extinction-producing tipping points of carbon 425, 500, and 600 ppm create a no-win condition where global warming management becomes out of humanity's future control
What most people do not fully realize is that at some soon point after passing the first tipping point of carbon 425-450 ppm, we will no longer be able to avoid unimaginable future global warming catastrophes or mass extinction. After we cross the carbon 425 ppm tipping point, our loss of control is because we will begin triggering:
- evermore natural climate system tipping points.
- much larger naturally occurring methane releases from the tundra, permafrost, and ocean shelves.
- additional natural carbon releases from our deep oceans, trees, and soils and our own failure to reduce our global fossil fuel use.
Eventually, these natural systems will also go into positive feedback loops with each other or cross their own internal tipping points. These positive feedback loops will once again increase the average global temperature. This further triggers increased-heat caused releases of evermore naturally generated methane and carbon, which once again further increases the average global temperature in an endless cycle. Unfortunately, these increasing temperatures will go on and on until after we are gone, when the Earth can finally correct itself hundreds or thousands of years in the future.
Unlike humanity's remaining ability to control and regulate its use of fossil fuels, if we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point, control of our future transfers to nature's control! There will be nothing we can do to keep the other natural sources of carbon and methane from crossing their own internal tipping points or entering into positive feedback loops.
Once we pass the carbon 425-450 tipping point, nature takes over, and global warming becomes a runaway train of ever-increasing average global temperature lasting for centuries or longer.
Humanity's total inability to control these large, complex natural systems, tipping points and positive feedback loops IS the most crucial reason why we cannot fail to meet the 2025 global targets. If we do not meet the 2025 targets, as soon as 2025, we will let any remaining control of the global warming extinction emergency slip out of our hands for many human lifespans.
We do not have until 2050, 2040, or 2035 to make the required global fossil fuel reductions to save ourselves as many governments and fossil fuel companies want you to believe. We also do not have until even 2030 to make the required fossil fuel reductions, as many prominent but ill-informed environmental groups want you to believe.
We have only until 2025 to make the required global fossil fuel reductions to prevent going over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point and losing all meaningful control of our global warming future.
This extinction emergency creates a series of compelling 600 trillion dollar questions hanging in the air: (600 trillion dollars plus is the minimum estimate for the total global warming damage costs that will occur if some of us manage to survive.)
1. Why aren't the brightest minds in the world's intelligence agencies screaming at their national politicians about meeting the 2025 targets and this nearly out-of-control extinction emergency?
2. Why aren't they making our politicians understand this is our last chance window of control to keep a dark and destructive new Pandora from getting out of her box?
3. Why aren't our intelligence agencies (as well as the world's wealthiest individuals and corporations) getting our politicians to realize that they have exposed ALL of humanity to an imminent and irrational extinction threat level? (More will be said about this in the next section.)
The above-listed natural system climate tipping points and positive feedback loops are complicated, but we have further simplified their descriptions and interactions on this page. This page will also help you understand how the increasing methane releases from the tundra, permafrost, and ocean shelves will occur and how massive new carbon releases from our deep oceans, trees, and soils will occur.
The extreme and imminent threat that humanity has only faced in one other area
Because escalating global warming and its tipping points are happening at a global level, we find ourselves at an extreme and unconscionable threat level. In just a few decades, the threat of the global warming extinction emergency will wreak its havoc on almost everyone.
The current global warming threat is extreme because:
- Its consequences are already intensifying in severity, frequency, and scale and will soon begin doing so exponentially.
- Its tipping points will continue to be crossed at faster and faster rates. These crossed tipping points will produce more heat increases even faster, as well as massive climate, biological, and human system instability, chaos, and crashes.
The time nearness of this threat is imminent because our emergency is developing on a timescale of just a few decades. This is very unlike the centuries or millennia of developmental timescales that have occurred in each of Earth's five previous major extinction events.
Our current extinction threat is no longer just possible or probable. Once we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point, the extinction threat becomes near-certain. Passing the carbon 500 and 600 ppm tipping points is a certain human, animal, and biological extinction catastrophe.
Once we go over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point, our extinction threat level rises to a level comparable to the threat level of a highly probable global nuclear war occurring soon. This is why the extreme threat level is merited. Over the coming decades, the accumulated destruction caused by global warming has the full capability of equaling or exceeding the devastation, suffering, and death of a global nuclear war.
Our politicians have ignored 35 years of scientific warnings. Our politicians have utterly failed to do their jobs. Our politicians have failed to protect us and manage this imminent and extreme threat, which threatens their nation and citizens and the survival of humanity and civilization itself.
Our politicians have successfully managed the global nuclear threat for the last 75 years. They also have done almost nothing over the last 35 years relating to the equal and eventually even higher risk of global warming extinction. Our global warming extinction emergency will unfold as the "ultimate disruptor" over the next 3 to 5 decades. Already it is causing considerable global financial loss, death, and hardship.
While you are legitimately panicking over all of this bad news, never forget that only by meeting the 2025 targets can we prevent Earth's sixth great extinction. Never forget that the global warming extinction emergency is not just the greatest disruptor of the 21st century, it is also the ultimate no-win game!
If you are still confused about how crossing global warming tipping points will lead us to mass extinction within your lifetime, please click here for detailed global warming tipping point documentation. (Click here for information to help you overcome your legitimate panic, or remember this link as you read the next even worse news section.)
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The fourth and most dangerous near-total climate extinction tipping point and the fifth phase of runaway global heating could be crossed sometime after 2070.
Welcome to humanity's ultimate near-total extinction vs. total extinction dilemma. In many places on our website, we have laid out the global warming science, which indicates that we are already facing an unavoidable global warming-caused extinction of about half of humanity within our lifetimes.
This extinction event will unavoidably cause the deaths of most of humanity by mid-century. Such a massive die-off will be due to crossing critical global warming tipping points, climate feedback loops, and the combined future consequences of global warming, particularly mass starvation due to global crop failures of the most climate-sensitive crops.
But it can get much worse. If we do not make or come reasonably close to the 2025 global reduction targets for our global fossil fuel use, we will also face the beginning stages of a possible total extinction event.
A total extinction event could begin as early as 50-70 years in the form of very high average global temperature and very high atmospheric carbon levels of about carbon 750 ppm, which will support initiating the final stages of the runaway-global heating process.
The final stage, runaway global heating, describes the circumstances in which the global climate destabilizes catastrophically and permanently from its original state—similar to what happened on Venus when the planet lost its atmosphere out into outer space. Runaway global warming is thought to have occurred on Venus 4 billion years ago because of a very high carbon-rich atmosphere and exceptionally high average surface temperatures.
The final stage of runaway global warming will create a literal Climageddon meltdown where nothing will survive because there will be no atmosphere. This total extinction event will enter its first phase as soon as our average global temperature rises at or above 5- 6 degrees Celcius.
Somewhere at a 5-6 degree Celcius increase in average global temperature added to the massive additional tipping point of releases of methane from coastal deposits and permafrost will quickly further skyrocket atmospheric carbon levels and average global temperatures to new levels faster than at any previous time in humanity's history. This will also trigger, initiate and accelerate the final phases of runaway global warming.
Here is how this happens. At a 5-6 degree Celcius temperature increase, the coastal deposits and permafrost begin releasing methane at exponentially higher rates, or in other words, the "methane timed bomb" goes off.
This will take us from the 5-6 degree Celcius atmospheric carbon level of 500-600 parts per million (ppm) far too quickly to the atmospheric carbon levels of carbon 800 ppm, carbon 1,000 ppm, carbon 1,200 ppm, and even to carbon 1,600 ppm and beyond. For reference, our climate was stable for hundreds of thousands of years at about carbon 270 ppm. We are currently at about carbon 415 ppm. (The recent carbon 270 to 415 ppm increase occurred since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, which was powered by burning fossil fuels.)
The Final Lose/Lose Shocker: We may not survive even the first 2 tipping points if our politicians and governments do not immediately work together and mass mobilize to achieve the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets
There are other hyper-critical factors to be carefully planned for in the nightmare carbon 500 and 600 ppm global warming scenarios we are already facing in our not-too-distant future. As if the proceeding was not enough to convince any rational individual that they need to do everything within their power to get their governments to come as close to the 2025 reduction targets as is possible to slow and lessen global warming so they can survive a bit longer, there is yet more terrible news.
As global warming worsens toward passing more of the above levels of tipping points, we will also have to deal with ever-escalating humanity and civilization-ending chaos, instabilities, and realities such as the following scenarios:
Scenario 1: Nuclear Reactor Meltdown. Once temperatures rise 4 degrees Celcius (in about 22-42 years and at about the carbon 500 ppm level), nuclear reactors found within global warming unsafe zones between the 45th parallel north and south will no longer be safe. They will no longer be able to be kept secure or maintained by functioning governments as global warming worsens.
If these nuclear reactors go critical and meltdown without stable and secure maintenance, it will not matter where you migrate to in the world. At 4 degrees Celcius, the combined consequences of global warming will cause most of the world's weakest governments to collapse as well as many stronger governments.
If nuclear reactors are melting down in many areas of the world where there are collapsed governments is far-fetched, consider that we have had the Chernobyl nuclear reactor meltdown in Russia and the Fukushima reactor meltdown in Japan. These were both stable governments with extensive precautions, security, and maintenance people to ensure this would never happen.
Worse yet, once temperatures rise to 5 degrees Celcius (in about 43-53 years and at about the carbon 600 ppm level), nuclear reactors will be melting down everywhere because even the strongest countries will now be collapsing. This means that no location or deep bunker will be safe from the continuous massive radiation fallout from hundreds of Chernoby-like nuclear reactors melting down. Once these reactors go critical, they will spew deadly radiation for centuries to thousands of years! (Currently, there are about 420 nuclear reactors used to generate power in the world today. There are also about 200 research reactors.)
Unfortunately, this same kind of nightmare holds true for all biological or chemical weapons or toxic chemicals stored in any areas with collapsing or collapsed governments. Once those areas are abandoned, lawless, or in chaos, these toxic commodities will either be seized for weaponization or will slowly leak out and poison areas far beyond their original locations. Scenario 1 is a no-win everyone dies eventually scenario because there are no bunkers existing that can keep people safe for centuries to thousands of years from these threats!
Scenario 2: Welcome to World War III. We could easily enter into a global warming-caused neat-total extinction event without the final runaway global heating near-total extinction tipping point being crossed. This can easily occur as global average temperatures reach anywhere from a 2+ to 4 degrees Celcius increase.
At those increased temperature levels, there will be increasing mass starvation and a mass migration of desperate climagees (climate refugees.) To survive, countries in the many unsafe zones between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south will demand land and resources from those countries in the safer zones. Regional and international conflicts and wars will break out over the safer land areas and remaining food and other resources.
These wars will be of ultimate desperation between the nations in safe and unsafe areas. They will undoubtedly include chemical, biological, and even tactical nuclear weapons. Any weapons available by the desperate nations or groups will be used to force those governments in the global warming safer zones to open their borders to the billions of "migrate or die" desperate climagees.
Because there will not be enough resources available in the safer zones to support the billions of climagees, the most vicious wars the world has ever seen will likely be fought over the safest remaining areas on Earth in what will likely be humanity's desperate last fight for survival! If this occurs, as it is likely it would, it is doubtful anyone will survive this hellish new nuclear, biological, and chemical World War III.
Scenario 3: Migration Lotteries that Won't Work Well Enough. Critical large-scale food production above the global warming safer 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south will be highly limited. This food crisis will be because of the soil quality, and the lower seasonal sunlight levels will be grossly inadequate for using traditional or existing food production methods.
We will not be able to grow enough food for the desperate billions of climagees migrating to these safer areas. Somehow the governments of the world will try to find a way to cooperate and fairly and wisely limit how many people can occupy the limited safer zones and still be fed. Trying to limit the number of desperate climagees who can inhabit the few remaining global warming safer zones by force or special lottery will be beyond difficult.
Any such action will in itself, create unimaginable social chaos, panic, and conflict that will keep those living in the global warming safer zones under continuous threat. At best, because of the nuclear reactors, toxic weapons, and the coming border wars, anyone living in those limited, safer zones will only have temporary relief.
Scenario 4: Lack of Genetic Diversity. If you do not allow enough genetically diverse individuals from the global warming unsafe zones to migrate, there will not be enough genetic diversity to survive the waves of new diseases that will burn through the far north or far south. These new diseases will emerge because of thousands-of-year-old unknown and known pathogens being increasingly released from the melting permafrost (which humanity has never seen before and has no immunity to.) Additionally, these safer global warming zones will also be under threat from new pathogens or existing pathogens that are always mutating or spreading because of the breakdown of health services as the world tumbles toward global warming mass extinction. Only adequate genetic diversity will guarantee that at least someone will survive. And,
Scenario 5: Our Inability to Move Infrastructure Fast Enough. For any of us to survive similarly to what we are used to, the world's critical infrastructure needed for a functioning modern civilization must be moved to the safer far north or far south zones within the next 5-15 years. To do this, we must wisely use whatever relative political, economic, and social stability that remains. (These safer zones most generally exist above the 45th to 55th parallels north or below the 45th to 55th parallels south.)
This means that to save even a small percentage of humanity, we should already be moving critical industries like medical, pharmaceutical, manufacturing, etc. The bad news is that this is not happening as well. This infrastructure move also involves moving administrative, policing, and other social structures into the limited "Goldilocks" global warming safe zones.
From the above additional five scenarios, even the most optimistic person will recognize nothing will save them other than only temporarily. From the totality of everything they are facing, they will also realize that it has come down to this final simple truth --- we either cooperate and work together to meet the 2025 targets or we die together.
We are no longer in only an emergency to prevent global warming from getting worse. We are no longer in only an emergency to prevent global warming mass extinction.
We are in an all-out war to prevent total human, animal, and biological extinction and economic, social, and political chaos and collapse. As long as we keep thinking about gradually managing the vague threat of "climate change," we are focusing on the wrong target.
We will fail in preventing our own extinction. Our governments need to shift their focus to meeting the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets at all costs! This new focus is the only way to slow global warming mass within our lifetimes and prevent near-total extinction. (The specific action steps needed to get our governments to meet the 2025 targets are found within Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
If we fail, no wealthy individual, corporation, or nation will be able to use its wealth to escape the instability, chaos, collapse, and extinction!
From what you have read so far, you can see that we are in a no/win game if we do not get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, but there are always those wealthy and arrogant individuals, corporations, and nations who will believe their wealth will insulate and save them from what is coming. Here is what they will face in the future that should convince them that this is a no-win game for them as well.
In spite of wealthy individuals and corporations already buying land and facilities in safer northern countries, they will not be safe there either. The mass migrations of desperate, aggressive, and armed climagees (climate refugees) and national armies will eventually overrun any and all border security measures. These locked-out climagees will angrily take their fair share of what's left and severely punish anyone who they even remotely believe had any significant part in letting this horrific global warming meltdown and catastrophe occur either by commission or omission.
Eventually, even the private security companies of the ultra-wealthy individuals and corporations hired to protect their compounds in the safer zones will eventually turn against their affluent bosses, realizing that they now live in a late-phase Climageddon Scenario world, where only firepower and military-style training determine temporary ongoing survival, final ownership, and safety. Worse yet, and worth repeating, the climagee survivors of the most painful and devastating catastrophe in human history who breakthrough into the safer zones will be so angry and traumatized they will seek a horrible vengeance on everyone and anyone they hold responsible for either causing or contributing to the catastrophe, or for failing to act when they reasonably could have slowed or prevented the worst of it.
In their unimaginable anger and pain, some of the remaining climagee survivors who desperately fight their way into the remaining temporarily safe zones and, like some survivors of the Holocaust, will relentlessly hunt down anyone who they believe knew about the escalating global warming extinction emergency and had the influence or resources to address it, but did not. Those individuals and corporations of great wealth will most certainly lose all of their power and their resources in the massive globalized backlash of anger and punishment that will be directed toward them.
There will be no place on earth or Swiss bank that will be able to save them and their assets from what will be viewed by the survivors as justifiable punishment for their gross global warming crimes of omission or commission against the survival of the whole of humanity.
Things will be even worse for wealthy corporations or individuals or nations who act in ways to profit from the escalating global warming catastrophes, real estate and market crashes, and the coming other 20 worst consequences as they are unfolding. When those wealthy individuals or corporations are identified by the enraged climagee survivors for their unconscionable commissions and omissions, it is highly likely that ALL of their wealth will be removed from them as well as from all of their trusts, secret bank accounts, businesses and all of their heirs for their crimes against humanity and the future. It is highly likely that such responsible individuals, corporate executives, and politicians will be put into hard labor camps for the rest of their natural lives.
Please do not mistake that the Job One organization is promoting any form of an illegal individual climagee survivor or group vengeance against wealthy corporations, individuals, or nations in any way whatsoever or at any time! All we are disclosing here is these are the most probable and natural human anger reactions by surviving individuals who have suffered unthinkable consequences and the pain of probably losing everyone and everything they have loved.
Our organization promotes and believes only in the peaceful execution of fair and equitable justice by impartial individuals, properly constructed courts, and the rule of law. As an organization, we hold that what is transpiring now (allowing global warming to worsen to near-extinction levels beyond recovery for all but a few in less than centuries) is ultimately a matter of ignorance.
Global warming is incredibly difficult to understand in the first place, but the ignorance of personal greed or excessive comforts being valued over the common well-being of society makes solving this challenge even worse. We only mention the highly probable outcomes for those ultra-wealthy individuals and corporations who act to make matters worse or fail to act when they should have acted to educate about the problem and in the hope that through this educational warning, the ultra-wealthy individuals and corporations will wake up that this is the ultimate no-win game even for them, and that we should never go down such a dark path.
As if the previous was not enough, the fate of those wealthy individuals and corporations who migrate to the temporarily safer global warming zones near the 45th parallel north or south will also have to deal with and solve the following devastating problems, some of which have been mentioned earlier.
At some point, even the world's 1% wealthiest individuals, corporations, and nations will recognize their money and power won't save them from the accelerating climate extinction monster. They will realize that we either cooperate and work together or die together. Click here to see our program to reach the 1% to get them to act by helping them realize the horror, suffering, financial loss, death, and the physical, emotional, and spiritual traumas that will be experienced and will continue to grow as global warming and climate change accelerate will be physically and emotionally wholly unbearable to the point that life will not be worth living!
They will eventually understand that the consequences of our current out-of-control global warming will last from centuries to thousands of years, and no one can survive all of the previously listed consequences even for one century with our existing technology.
The REAL crisis, challenge, and ultimate climate change question for our collective and individual future is...
"How do we prevent a global warming-caused near-total extinction event from occurring while we are simultaneously dealing with an unavoidable mass extinction event, which is already occurring?"
The above is the most important global warming question that no politician or global warming education organization is currently honestly addressing! Yet, there is no more critical question for the survival of humanity that must be faced and managed, or there will be no more humanity!!
This is the central question at Job One for Humanity which we are facing and managing in an honest, adult manner. In facing the global warming emergency over the last 11 years, we have been continually forced to create and update a science-based remedial plan that, if honestly executed, has a reasonable probability of preventing the neat-total extinction of humanity.
This new plan is ultimately practical in that it also helps individuals make the critical emergency preparations and adaptions needed to deal with our steadily unfolding mass extinction process while also still promoting all of the key actions that must be done by our governments to prevent the near-total extinction of humanity.
What is also essential to keep in mind when you are considering the four global warming tipping points, mass extinction or near-total extinction, is that a mass extinction event is already unfolding. And it is accelerating at a continually accelerating pace, which will come to full realization throughout the next 30-50 years.
The great news of the Job One Plan to better manage the global warming extinction emergency is that...
1. if we can get our governments to act effectively on this emergency and get close to the 2025 targets, those of you who start preparing and adapting now should be able to survive and thrive much longer through what most of humanity will not.
2. The only way to solve the dilemma of preventing a runaway global heating-caused near-total extinction event from occurring while we are also simultaneously dealing with an unavoidable mass extinction event that is already occurring, is to begin the Job One Plan action steps that fit with your current circumstances!
Click here to overview the 4 Parts of the Job One for Humanity Plan to resolve the global warming emergency and prevent near-total extinction. Here you can learn what you can do to protect your family, business, and nation during the unfolding mass extinction event while at the same time helping to execute the most effective governmental actions required to resolve our extinction emergency.
If you want to review additional climate science on why about half of humanity will go extinct by mid-century, click here. We want you to have all of the science and analysis behind our half of humanity going extinct by mid-century statements. Hence, you will know that the many painful and difficult changes you will soon need to make on the Job One Plan B are genuinely warranted.
Please keep reading. The next sections will help motivate you to take the best possible actions in spite of all the bad news...
The hard facts for why we must press on and meet or get as close to the 2025 targets as possible despite all the above challenges
If we do get close to the 2025 targets, as much as 50% of humanity will suffer and die due to starvation over a relatively short period (1-2 decades.) As horrible as much as 50% of humanity, as well as a lot of animals and biological life, suffering and dying is, this outcome is still far better than having most of humanity die by mid-century, or even all of humanity suffer and die if we fail to reach or come very close to the 2025 targets.
There are three things we can always be sure of during this global warming extinction emergency. In spite of all of the challenges and adverse global warming outcomes that are possible and discussed above, the single constant truth for the best possible outcome for humanity is that; the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use toward meeting or getting as close as possible to the 2025 targets:
a. the more people that will survive longer to carry on humanity, life, and our beautiful civilization into the future (See Parts 3 and 4 of the Job One Plan for how to do this.)
b. the surviving future generations will suffer far less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences and catastrophes, and
c. we will "buy" ourselves more time to prepare and adapt to what we can no longer avoid (see the global warming Plan B and survival kit here.)
More people surviving longer and more people having time to get themselves, their families, and their businesses prepared for what is coming is an undeniable good, particularly when you weigh it against the unavoidable consequences of doing nothing or failing to make the needed sacrifices to get global warming under control.
Why All is Not Hopeless!
While a global heating consequence-driven near-total extinction is probable, a total extinction is not probable or realistic because of the combination of natural and human system counteractions.
If we stay below or very close to Carbon 450 ppm, we will be better able to keep near-total human extinction closer to its lower levels (saving 25-50% of humanity.)
If you have not done so already, please click here for this full explanation of why there is appropriate hope for as much as half of humanity.
Click here to see what we must do to save ourselves and the future.
We can't escape experiencing a Great Global Die-off followed by a Great Global Collapse of about half of humanity by mid-century. But post-2050, if we learn our climate (and other lessons), humanity's remaining survivors could experience the many positive possibilities of a Great Global Rebirth. While there will be much unavoidable suffering and death that we can no longer escape, there are still many possible benefits for the lucky and wise survivors who could create a world we ALL would want to live in.
At this point, you have read a lot of terrible climate and global heating news. It is now essential to balance all this bad news with more appropriate good news and the honest hope provided by the many positive possibilities of the Great Global Rebirth.
Click here to learn more about the many positive possibilities of fixing global heating and the Great Global Rebirth. This benefits link leads to the most read page on our website, viewed over 2 million times.
Please see these additional links for more good news and an appropriate and rational hope:
1. To see some additional interesting and important benefits and positive perspectives on the many challenges before us, told as a narrative, please click here. You will be glad you did!
2. For a powerful video that we highly recommend for emotional and spiritual support due to global warming or environmental, or emotional upset, click here.
3. Click here for everything you would like to know about the possibilities of a post-Great Die-off and post-Great Collapse --- Great Global Rebirth.
4. This critical page contains proven techniques for processing any difficult climate emotions.
(Read this if you are discouraged or you don't believe we can get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.)
As the research and analysis verification links in this document reveal, there is no longer such a thing as a program of gradual fossil fuel reduction being a viable alternative. We squandered that option with our last six decades of procrastination, denial, and delay in effectively reducing our global fossil fuel use.
Crossing the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold and tipping point brings about:
1. unavoidable rising temperatures for many decades,
2. crossing more dangerous global heating tipping points and feedback loops even faster, and
3. a recovery process that will take hundreds to thousands of years.
Letting atmospheric carbon go over the 425-450 ppm tipping point is not only insane, but it is also unconscionable under any rationalization!
Because of our lost six decades of denial and delay, what we need to do now will need to be radical, painful, and costly. That is now the price of our future if, we want to have as many people as possible survive.
Don't be fooled. This emergency is not far off in the future.
This emergency is not a "get to it later" problem for your children in their later life. It will directly affect both you and your children within your lifetimes.
From now until 2025, if we are not close to reaching our life-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, we will know that we are locked in to the path of high probability of near-total extinction. If that happens, we will be forced to see if we can save and salvage any livable future for humanity for the second half of this 21st century and for the centuries to follow.
We do not often engage in conversations about the mass or near-total extinction of our species, but now is the time to do so. Failure to get close to the 2025 reduction targets means the destruction of far too much of humanity is on-the-line --- within our lifetimes! That is precisely what we at Job One mean when we say we are in a "runaway global heating extinction emergency."
Right now, this self-made suicidal tragedy is already affecting hundreds of millions of people around the world. Over the next 10 to 20+ years, it's just going to get worse even faster, affecting billions.
Most people do realize that mass human, animal, and biological extinction within their lifetime is unthinkably horrible. What they do not realize is that the global warming catastrophes and dying will start long before this extinction process runs its full course. Within the next decade or two, we will begin seeing a significant and massive acceleration of runaway global heating disasters, catastrophes, and deaths.
These disasters will continue to increase in frequency, severity, and scale in an oscillating pattern where the oscillation of these weather extremes becomes worse and worse and occurs at closer and closer intervals. Long before this global heating-fueled mass extinction reaches its peak, our economic, political, and social systems will experience widespread chaos and collapse.
If you can imagine hell on Earth, you would be adequately envisioning our future if we fail to get close to the 2025 targets.
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More good climate and global heating news
1. At this point, we recommend that you click here and watch this 4 Minute Global Warming Video by Greta Thunberg given at the United Nations on September 23, 2019. It may help you to understand and feel the seriousness of the global warming-caused mass extinction emergency we now face.
2. To prevent mass human extinction within our lifetimes, we must all stay calm and carry on. We must also get the world's politicians to act because we are not safe or secure until they do!
In the priority order given below, we must come together in action to take the following three life-critical action steps before it is too late:
a. if you can directly influence any politicians, get them to understand this emergency and then execute the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reducing actions (found prioritized in Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
b. if you have any direct or indirect connections to the world's elites (ultra-wealthy corporations, individuals, celebrities, philanthropies, etc.,) get these elites to recognize this emergency is a no-win game for them as well.
Help them realize that no amount of money, power, or fame will save them in the long run. Once they understand this, many of them will use their powerful direct influence on the world's politicians to get them to get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets achieved on time. (Please see Part 4 of the Job One Plan for help with this step.)
c. while doing a and b above as individuals and as businesses as best as you can, meet the critical fossil fuel reduction targets listed above and as described in the fossil fuel reduction actions found in Part 2 of our Job One Plan.
No matter what and. in every circumstance we face, the following still holds true. The more and faster we reduce global fossil fuel use, the more individuals who will survive longer and the more individuals who will suffer less
The big remaining question is...
are you going to do your urgently needed part to make these last chance fossil fuel reductions happen?
Your and your children's immediate future depends upon the choices you make right now about how to deal with this life and death emergency.
Please stop being fooled by the fossil fuel lobbyist-funded illusion that there is ANY time left to make gradual or comfortable fossil fuel reductions! Only the radical 2025 fossil fuel reductions described in this document will slow down the coming global warming consequences enough to have any fair chance of preventing mass human extinction within our lifetimes.
And, we will either succeed together, or we will die together!
At this point, you may be feeling a bit overwhelmed by what you have read and the enormity of the challenge of what we must do to survive. You may believe that the level of reductions required is impossible. You may also believe the task is so enormous with such a low probability of success, why even try.
The following story should help you to begin to deal with those ideas and emotions.
The wise general
A wise Chinese general was cornered at the banks of a large river by an opposing army at least 20 times larger than his own. His only means of escape was to get his army across the river before they were attacked. This general had also previously placed enough boats on the bank of the river for escape with his army should that need arise.
As the larger army approached, pushing the smaller army closer to the river, this general gave the order to his most trusted lieutenants to rush to the boats and burn them. When his army saw their only means of escape was being destroyed, they became wildly angry and charged toward the general. The army demanded to know why their trusted general had burned their escape boats and condemned all of them to certain death at the hands of a vastly superior army.
The general calmly said, “We will win this battle or we will die. There is no other alternative and no escape.”
His army now knew their only option was victory or death. Filled with such clarity and single-mindedness of purpose, they fought with such reckless intensity, they defeated the opposing army 20 times their size.
Now that you better understand the rapidly approaching extinction consequences of our global warming extinction emergency from the science and analysis in the links above, you too should no longer retain any illusion of any long-term escape for you or your family, business, or nation from immense suffering and likely extinction --- if we do not deal with the reality of this emergency.
What you also may not have realized yet, is that our 35-year failure to have previously started effective fossil fuel usage reductions means that we too, in effect, have already burned our escape boats! Because of this, like the Chinese army, we either win, or we die.
This is the perilous and sad point that we have come to because of our inaction and ineffectiveness in addressing global warming and the required fossil fuel reductions for almost 35 years.
The good news is if we act wisely cooperatively and immediately to radically cut fossil fuel use to the above targets, humanity and civilization will have a chance to continue.
So what do you have to lose? What rational alternative do you have than to act immediately to radically reduce your personal fossil fuel use? What legitimate excuse is there for you not to help us get our governments to enforce the required radical fossil fuel reductions by the necessary deadlines and that only governments can achieve?
The reality is, that failure is no longer a conscionable option.
There is a fifth tipping point that few are willing to talk about, 2025-2030 "migrate or die" tipping point
If we miss our last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, and if you live in a global warming unsafe zone, you will need to migrate either before or near 2025 to about 2030 if we are lucky. The global warming safer areas are generally above the 45 parallel north or the 45 parallel south as shown above or below the orange lines in the illustration below.
If we miss the 2025 deadline by a considerable amount, near or around 2025-2030 real estate prices will also begin to drop significantly (or even crash) in some global warming higher-risk areas (from the red Equator line to each of the orange 45-degree lines.) They will also begin to soar in many global warming safer areas.
The reasons for this are:
1. A predictable mass extinction event will be unfolding at a continually accelerating pace and it will come to full realization throughout the next 30-50 years. It will also unfold faster and faster because more extinction-accelerating tipping points will be crossed faster and faster as the carbon ppm levels continue to climb in the atmosphere. This means that you will have less and less time to prepare, adapt, and migrate as the global warming extinction emergency gets worse at faster rates if you do not get started soon.
2. At some point by around 2030, there will have been so many global occurrences of extreme or record-breaking storms, droughts, heatwaves, floods, rain bombs, bomb cyclones, hurricanes, and unseasonable weather, which cause more severe disasters and catastrophes that no intelligent person will be able to continue to deny the evidence of their own eyes or their increasingly painful experiences. At that point, far more people will begin to migrate to the very limited global warming safer areas.
In response to the increased migration pressure, real estate prices will rise rapidly (even skyrocket) in more and more of the limited global warming lower-risk areas.
3. Like what has already happened in Europe with Middle Eastern and African climagees (climate migrants,) nations in the global warming safer areas will either be closing their borders or making immigration so restrictive that fewer and fewer climagees will still be able to migrate much after 2025-2030.
There will be a negative 2025-2030 tipping point for allowing the mass migration of individuals and businesses out of the global warming high-risk zones into the safer zones. Once this tipping point is reached, the safer zones will close down all migration!
It will be unwise to allow yourself to get caught on the wrong side of this perilous 2025-2030 tipping point.
Click here to learn more about the safer (lower risk) and unsafe (higher risk) global warming zones as well as wise global warming migration options.
The most important things to remember on this page!
1. There is only one real global warming deadline and tipping point that is necessary to burn into your mind at this time. Everything depends on what we do with the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets:
a. If we hit the 2025 targets, we could possibly still prevent the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century, but this is highly unlikely.
b. If we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by a lot, there will be the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century.
c. If we do not get very close to the 2025 targets, most of us could go extinct in a near-total extinction event! And,
d. If we miss the 2025 targets by a significant amount, the best we can hope for is that we have cut global fossil fuel usage enough so that we slowed down the extinction processes sufficiently so more of us can live a little longer!
2. If we miss the 2025 targets, no new technology can scale up fast enough to save us! Our ability to maintain any real or meaningful control over this emergency ends just after we breach the carbon 425-450 ppm range in 2025.
3. It is the pure physics and mathematics of global warming temperature dynamics that will take over after we have gone over the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff.
4. If we do not make the 2025 targets, our last chance and the final window opportunity to effectively control our own destiny regarding preventing even worse extinction level tipping points from being crossed literally closes! If we go over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point, the worst consequences of global warming will not only increase in severity, frequency, and scale, they will also come at us faster and faster. Eventually, everything we depend upon in an organized society for our survival becomes so unstable that an organized society can no longer exist. At that not too distant point, we then starve to death, or die in resource scarcity collapses or conflicts or, in "migrate or die" chaos, or in national conflicts.
5. The largest illustration on this page above, the Global Warming and the Climageddon Scenario Cascading Meltdown reflects the unfolding natural progression of ever-worsening consequences, tipping points, and human system processes that will accelerate as global warming continues. These consequences, tipping points, and human systems will also synergetically and cumulatively collide with each other and adversely interact. It is these ever-increasing interactions among and between worsening global warming consequences, tipping points, and human systems that will make each of these things worse faster and faster.
This illustration reflects the core of the final processes that will lead to our mass extinction as well as into global economic, political, and social chaos. Its three levels of global warming interactions (consequences, tipping points, and human systems,) highlight the continuous onslaught of emergencies, crises, and catastrophes that we are already experiencing and which foretell our eventual extinction if we fail to reach the 2025 targets.
6. While you personally can do some things on your own to reduce global warming, there is nothing you can do individually (or even in large groups,) to effectively hit the 2025 targets. It is now the government's responsibility to save us. The 2025 targets can only be achieved by governments working together and immediately issuing new global warming reduction laws and then verifying and enforcing that they are followed to hit the 2025 targets.
7. Not getting very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets is the ultimate no-win game! It is near-total extinction.
8. Escalating global warming is the ultimate no/win game unless we come close to meeting the 2025 targets!
(Many key areas of this document were derived from the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown document. It breaks down the complex global warming processes at the next level to help prove to you that the technical details above are accurate. If you have not yet read about the six phases of the Climageddon extinction scenario, which will take you level-by-level through the consequence and timetable details as humanity moves ever closer to extinction, we strongly recommend doing do so now by clicking here.)
9. What most people do not understand about global warming tipping points
Most systems like the global warming climate system cannot be easily fixed once you cross a crucial tipping point without a long recovery time and severely high costs. These long recovery periods and high costs are due to:
1. The whole or significant part of the system completely crashing. Some system tipping point crashes are entirely unrecoverable, and others will take hundreds to thousands of years. By the time this system recovers, it's too late, and the damage has already been done.
2. There is so much previous momentum in the system that what you did decades ago is now driving current and future consequences.
3. There is so much inertia in other parts of the system that you can't change in time; you will not be able to prevent the worst global warming consequences from occurring.
What most people have a hard time understanding about global warming is that:
a. there is a finite window of opportunity (realistically until 2025,) where we still have some control of our global warming future, and
b. when you cross critical global warming tipping points, that window of opportunity is gone, usually for centuries to millennia while you are suffering all of the consequences of a crashed system.
To learn more about the 11 key global warming tipping points click here.
10. If you only remember the following things from this page you will understand the core message of this page and our website:
11. The core message of our website is simple and straightforward. If you have not read it already, click here.
12. After reading this article, you definitely will want to read this page. It is the small-picture, detailed overview of the 40 primary and secondary global warming-related consequences that will occur as we cross the four major extinction-triggering climate tipping points below. It will help you get prepared for what is coming.
13. If the climate change emergency is allowed to continue as we are doing now, what you see above IS what will unfold step-by-step and layer by layer. The world's wealthiest individuals, corporations, and nations will lose their wealth and fall.
Eventually, millenniums of human civilization will be lost into a post-collapse new dark age. We will be lucky if there are any human survivors at all. (Click here to see what will happen with the world's wealthiest individuals and corporations if they fail to use their influence to get our governments to act before it is too late!)
14. This page helps explain why we have predicted that about half of humanity will perish from climate change-related primary and secondary consequences by mid-century.
15. It is critical to understand the five phases of runaway global heating and when we cross over into irreversible global heating, which could last for centuries before recovery. Each of the first three phases of runaway global heating pushes us farther into the mass human extinction process and makes recovery or control more unlikely. If we cannot get global heating under control by getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets before we get far into phase two of runaway global heating, very few of us will be left (if any.) This is particularly true if we enter phase three. If we enter phase four of runaway global heating, there is little hope left for any human survivors. Finally, phase five of runaway global heating will end all life on earth.
16. Many individual climate tipping points and feedback loops are getting worse considerably faster than predicted. This worsening is a double problem because not only are those climate systems getting worse faster than predicted, the climate systems interconnected to those systems will most likely also get worse faster than predicted because of that interconnection. It is not just one thing getting worse in this scenario. It's one thing making almost everything else it is connected to get worse as well. This linear and nonlinear amplification factor across intra-system and extra-system climate interconnections within the climate as a complex adaptive system is seldom compensated for in computer modeling.
It is not just Job One for Humanity saying these scary things anymore. Hundreds of climate scientists now feel we cannot keep global warming below a 2° C increase. This means that all we can do right now is prepare for and adapt to what's coming. (If needed, click here to review the many reasons why it is highly unlikely we will reach our 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and why we must begin preparing ourselves.)
The above is all you have to remember about global warming and your future. Most of the pages of our website are about showing you the exact science behind these simple statements so that you can always verify what we are saying is true. You can start or continue that verification process here.
Everything for a livable future for humanity depends upon simply not passing beyond the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold!!!
Most people who hear our governments talking about reaching fossil fuel reduction targets between 2040-2060 have no idea if we fail to make the required global fossil fuel reductions over the next 3 to 8 years (from 2025-2031); we are royally screwed!
If we miss the correct, uncensored, and up-politicized 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by a lot, we will suffer:
1. The unavoidable extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. And,
2. We will bring about phase 2 of irreversible runaway global warming and near-total human extinction by about 2070-2080.
But why do we have to act within this 3-8 year last window of opportunity to fix the climate change emergency? Few understand this survival critical information.
The key reasons that we are almost out of time to prevent the mass and near-total human extinction are as follows:
1. James Hansen, a former NASA climate scientist, said that humanity should be safe if we stayed below an atmospheric carbon level of 350 parts per million (ppm). However, he also said that if we go beyond an atmospheric carbon level of about 386 ppm, we will enter into a state of runaway global heating. If you imagined runaway global heating like a train without brakes rolling down a mountain, which is getting steeper and steeper, you would have a good idea about what we face with the runaway unstoppable and ever-rising temperatures of runaway global heating.
James Hansen also said that if we crossed the carbon 386 ppm threshold, critical climate change tipping points and climate feedback loops would start "stacking." These tipping points and feedback loops would rapidly be continually crossed like falling dominoes. Crossing additional climate tipping points or climate feedback loops is a self-feeding, self-reinforcing, and self-sustaining process! In other words, because of the climate tipping points and feedback loops, runaway global heating would become irreversible in the most practical meaning of the word.
2. Accordingly, we ensure an ever-continuing global temperatures rise if we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm level. Just the carbon 425-450 ppm level by itself would eventually lock in a total increase in average global temperature of about 2 -2.7° Celsius (4° - 4.9° Fahrenheit) from preindustrial levels.
Once we cross the 2° plus Celsius (the carbon 425-450 ppm level,) the widespread extinction-accelerating temperature levels of 3°, 4°, 5°, and even 6° Celsius will also be all but locked in! (According to James Hansen, a carbon 450 ppm level would eventually develop into an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century and be the end of human civilization as we've come to know it and near-total human extinction.)
As you can see below, as of June 2022, we were at the hazardous carbon level of 421 ppm We are currently not far from entering the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold where climate change hell breaks loose and for all practical intents and purposes, we lose control of our climate future for many, many decades to centuries.
3. Once we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold level, we also begin triggering many additional climate tipping points and amplifying climate feedback loops at even faster rates! These tipping points and feedback loops will also cause the many primary and secondary consequences of climate change to increase in severity and frequency radically, and they will occur over larger and larger areas.
4. Unfortunately, we have passed phase one of runaway global heating. We are about to enter phase two of runaway global heating. When we enter phase three of runaway global heating (after about 2031,) the primary and secondary climate change consequences will begin to rise exponentially.
5. Once we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold level, runaway global heating becomes all but irreversible for centuries. Only the proven processes of nature over vast amounts of time will be able to slowly reverse the atmospheric carbon pollution and the other consequences of runaway global heating after all of the other key sources of runaway global heating are eliminated.
We finished a spellbinding three-article series in January of 2023 on what happens when you add current climate research (like the above,) climate change extinction tipping point, and feedback loop information into five well-documented studies on the factors that are most likely to bring about global collapse. Those five areas are industrial output, food production, resource availability, population, and pollution. The previous five studies did not include recent climate change research.
The last article in this series has graphs that show how the updated prediction timeframes for the global collapse of these five critical factors have grown significantly shorter when you add climate change consequence factors and timeframes into the other five studies. Click here to go to the first of these three articles. It will also link you to the other two articles. We strongly recommend reading these articles to learn how humanity's global survival timeframes have grown much shorter!
The ultimate and still remaining global warming critical question for every person, business, religion, and the government on Earth
We were grossly unprepared for the COVID-19 pandemic despite repeated warnings by our scientists. We are woefully unprepared for the coming global warming extinction emergency and we have once again have ignored the warnings of our scientists.
If we continue to fail to act effectively, we face unavoidable mass human extinction for most of humanity by mid-century and near-total extinction within as little as 50-70 years.
We have already all but lost the battle to avoid global warming mass extinction by our being so far away from hitting the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
The ultimate remaining global warming question for every person, business, religion, and the government should be most concerned about at this time is:
"Will we, at least, come close enough to the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets so that humanity can avoid near-total extinction?"
Click here to see where we are today on the Climate Change and Global Warming Doomsday Clock.
If you want to find out what you can do to prevent crossing the last chance 2025 deadline and tipping point, click here to learn more about the Job One for Humanity Plan.
To learn more about what you can do to prevent extinction click the image just above.
Help us get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction goals met by signing the global warming extinction emergency petition now.
Created by the Job One Research Team
The essential positive perspective on the above disruptive global warming and climate change news
Despite the many types of challenging global warming consequences and past fossil fuel reduction mistakes that we now face, we can still learn from their feedback, and we can adapt and evolve to make life as good and as happy as is possible. No matter how severe the coming global warming consequences might become, if we wisely play the remaining cards that we have been dealt with, we can still achieve the best remaining possible outcomes.
We can yet make a significant difference to reduce global fossil fuel use to stabilize and save the future of humanity by executing a comprehensive reduction and survival plan like the Job One for Humanity global warming action plan.
We can still maintain the perseverance needed to succeed in this monumental task by regularly reviewing the many benefits which will occur as we work successfully on this project together. Although we are now in what could be called a Great Global Collapse process triggered by accelerating global warming, this collapse process will eventually offer equal to (or even greater than) long-term benefits in the form of a potential Great Rebirth beyond the coming suffering and loss.
First on this page (that has been read almost 2 million times,) and then this other critical global warming benefit page, you will find the many often hidden surprise benefits of the global warming challenge. You also will find a framework and the possibilities for what could be called a post-collapse Great Rebirth, no matter how bad the collapse process gets.
We can persevere through this time of emergency. We just need to remember that our greatest challenges are also the seeds of our greatest opportunities.
We are engaged in nothing less than the most critical and meaningful evolutionary opportunity, challenge, and adventure in human history! It is our last opportunity to slow down the mass human extinction threat by getting close to these 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Only reaching these targets will fully remove the near-total extinction threat. In reaching these targets, we also significantly improve many of the world's other 12 major challenges.
Get started today on the Job One for Humanity global warming reduction and survival plan. Help save and salvage as much of humanity and our beautiful civilization as is possible.
Curious about the many major step-by-step consequences unfolding as we pass through the global warming tipping points described above?
All of the most critical consequences that we will face as individuals, businesses, and nations as we cross the tipping points described above were not listed above. It helps many people to see these critical tipping point consequences that will most affect them written in a simple list form. This simple list will help you know what is coming in what general sequence and, most importantly, for what you will need to be prepared.
If you click the 2025 Global Warming Doomsday clock image below, it will take you to a critical global warming tipping point consequence list and other vital information concerning how our other global problems will affect the global warming emergency and your lives.,
Once you click the image below, we strongly recommend reading the whole page, but if you only want to read the consequence lists, do as follows. First, about 1/2 way down the page, go to the section called, "How global warming will act as the key disruptor, threat amplifier, and multiplier accelerating global collapse."Next, a bit farther down the page, go to "How the Great Global Collapse will likely unfold and how it will affect everyone in its path. These two lists and the whole pages are shocking eye and mind openers!
Please share these critical nine global warming facts with everyone you can and, please sign this
Global Warming Emergency Petition
And, if you read nothing else from the links above, read this page!
Despite Everything Disheartening that You Have Read Above, the Job One For Humanity organization is NOT an End-of-the-World, all-is-lost organization
Please click here to read our balanced, positive approach toward the monumental challenges we face to avoid extinction and the widespread collapse of our global systems.
Still Feeling Sad, Angry, or Anxious About Global Warming? Here is what to do.
Click this link and start feeling better.
And, if you have not done so already,
after reading the above article, you will definitely also want to read this page. It is a detailed overview of the 80 primary and secondary global warming-related consequences that will occur as we cross the four major extinction-triggering climate tipping points described below.
Important technical details for the 2025 targets
It should be noted that many, many climate scientists have had the courage to say we are already well past the point of effectively stopping global warming from reaching a 2 degree Celcius increase in average global temperature (above our pre-industrial temperature levels.) Our average global temperature will reach a 1.5 degree Celcius increase because we have already crossed over the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff. This means that the other mass extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points described on this page will soon be triggered.
In essence, what these "it is already too late" climate scientists are now saying is:
a. All we can do now is prepare for and adapt to the horrible list of consequences described in this article.
b. We will not be able to avoid a mass extinction event and die-off. And,
c. The only thing our governments (not us as individuals) can still do is slow, save, and salvage what we can to still prevent a runaway global heating-driven near-total extinction event. To do this, they need to slow down the accelerating rise in global temperature from the rate that it is now. This will allow more of us to survive a little bit longer to get prepared. (On this page, you will find our Plan B for how to prepare for and adapt to the many consequences we can no longer change.)
d. The global warming extinction emergency is part of a much larger and more dangerous ongoing global collapse process. Click here to read about this more extensive global collapse process, and how the global warming emergency is accelerating it.
Our organization, which has done over a decade of extensive research analysis on the global warming emergency and which has created this Doomsday Clock, has also aligned itself with the many climate scientists who have said we are well past the point of effectively stopping global warming from reaching a 2 degree Celcius increase. (On this page you will find the almost two dozen reasons why our organization now also believes that global warming has gone out of our reasonable control and that we will face unavoidable mass extinction with just a few decades.)
If that is our current position, it is only natural to wonder why we have also created and are promoting the Climate Change and Global Warming Doomsday Clock? The answer is simple.
We wanted to promote the extreme urgency of the global warming extinction emergency so that our governments finally begin to significantly reduce global fossil fuel use to at least slow down the current global warming acceleration curve enough to prevent a near-total extinction event. Also, if more people understand the urgency of our emergency, they also will do what they can to slow it down and, they will have more time to prepare for and adapt to the upcoming horrific global warming consequences. As this happens more of humanity and civilization can also survive longer and most importantly, we still have a chance to avoid near-total extinction. It is just that simple! (Click here to see the many effective government actions needed to slow down the near-total extinction nightmare so more of us can survive longer.
For those interested in the most complete timeframes, triggering events, and supplemental information related to when and how the preceding primary and secondary global warming consequences will occur, please see the six unique phases of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario. This is dense reading but well worth the time for those who must know every known warning sign and signal tracking the acceleration of the unfolding mass extinction and collapse. Individuals with significant personal investments, businesses that could be affected, or working in predictive positions at insurance companies, investment banks, or hedge funds are the most frequent readers of the six phases of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario.
If you are interested in understanding the climate science and analysis procedures we used to present the above information, click here for a technical explanation of our climate research process.
Click here to see most of the published climate research and other summary references reviewed or used for content on this website. This master references listing also includes a description of the analysis process used to develop the facts found on these pages.
Please send this article to politicians and social media all over the world. Ask your politicians what they are doing to prevent the coming mass extinction of most of humanity by mid-century?
Ask them why they are not adequately managing the greatest threat multiplier and global problem amplifier of the 21st century by enacting the governmental steps described here!
(This page is derived substantially from the 2016 book, Climageddon, The Global Warming Emergency and How to Survive It. It has been updated with new climate research since 2016 as applicable. Climageddon is Available on Amazon.)
The Climageddon Extinction Scenario: A Comprehensive Climate Change and Global Warming Extinction Prediction Model
(The Climageddon Extinction Scenario below is another name for our current runaway global heating extinction emergency.)
"You cannot be called an alarmist if there really is something to be alarmed about." Unknown
You are about to read alarming facts about our current climate and our current runaway global warming extinction emergency (aka the climate extinction emergency, Holocene extinction, sixth mass extinction event, climate crisis, climate emergency, or run-away global warming challenge.) It would be naive to believe that well-funded and well-staffed intelligence agencies around the world do not also have most of the information within this article, but unlike our organization, these agencies have chosen not to make it public outside of highly restricted circles.
We have learned that not everyone decides to take the same remedial, protective, or preparatory actions once they verify and process the stress of what they are about to read. Because of this, we have also provided the Job One for Humanity global warming management and survival plan, which contains numerous options for different individual or collective positive responses to the many serious consequences presented in this global warming extinction model.
While reading, also keep in mind that if we reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by plus or minus 5 percent, we will avoid the worst consequences of the Climageddon Scenario described below in the 6 parts of this article! Life over the millennia always seems to find a way to solve its previous extinction challenges and if we act soon and together, we should be able to do this too!
The Climageddon Scenario extinction model was first released in 2017 in the book Climageddon. Since its release, every major global warming consequence prediction it made has come true as predicted. Unfortunately, many of its predicted consequence timeframes are occurring even faster than was predicted.
For instance, in addition to more ice all over the planet melting considerably faster than previously predicted, new research also shows that the world's critical carbon-absorbing forests are reaching the carbon-releasing tipping point far quicker than predicted. Our forests were removing about 30% of the heat-producing carbon from the atmosphere. Now more of our forests are becoming carbon neutral the critical step before they become carbon releasing.
This quickly evolving forest tipping point issue bodes poorly for controlling global average temperature. This tipping point alone could spike up global temperatures far faster than anyone can yet envision. All of this has moved the Global Warming and Climate Change Doomsday Clock very close to midnight as you can see in the illustration below.
What is also new in this updated version is more detailed global warming tipping points, consequences, timetables, and other global challenges integrated and prioritized within the Climageddon Scenario phases. This allows for even better, more comprehensive long-term planning for individuals, businesses, and nations.
At the end of this article, you will find a link to a comprehensive four-part plan for what you can do to help manage runaway global heating. To counterbalance these disruptive facts, in this article, you will also find a link to the many surprising benefits that you will experience as we work toward resolving this great challenge, opportunity, and evolutionary adventure.
Climageddon is a new word that combines the words climate and Armageddon. Armageddon is the word that is often used to refer to any end-of-the-world scenario.
Climageddon describes a global warming end-of-the-world extinction model and extinction process in a year-by-year accelerating consequence countdown that could easily occur within our lifetimes if we continue the way we are. We call this complete global warming extinction process the Climageddon Scenario and Extinction Countdown (CSEC,) or for short the Climageddon Scenario (CS,) or the Climageddon Countdown (CC.)
The Climageddon Extinction Scenario describes a new global warming prediction model to help individuals visualize the six distinct waves of increasing coming global warming consequences. These six waves of consequences if allowed to occur, will lead us to the near-complete to complete extinction of humanity within about 50-70 years.
In part, the Climageddon Extinction Scenario is based upon our crossing four extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points. It illuminates the complete process of escalating global warming consequences and catastrophes, which eventually result in a predictable mass human die-off. Fortunately, this mass to near-total extinction process will only run its course if we do not achieve the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and we tumble into the latter of the six Climageddon phases and waves.
(Click here to discover why total human extinction is not realistic or probable and the worst humanity will experience is near-total extinction (50 to 90+% of humanity going extinct.)
When you think about the Climageddon Extinction Scenario, realize that extinction emergency and global cataclysm are entirely appropriate terms to use. The unfolding global warming processes are happening shockingly fast. They are developing most destructively over the next 30-50 years and could take less than a century to fully manifest in a mass die-off.
This is a shockingly short timeframe when compared with the far longer geological time frames which were needed to evolve Earth's five earlier mass extinction events. Humanity's five previous mass extinction events evolved over hundreds of thousands to millions and millions of years.
The Climageddon Extinction Scenario is activated by global warming's 20 worst consequences and 11 key tipping points interacting and getting worse. The 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario weave the consequences and tipping points into:
a. one continually evolving collection of interacting and reacting climate, human, and biological systems and processes. And,
b. an interconnected and interdependent whole system.
How a movie story and an asteroid metaphor will help you understand the Climageddon Scenario and the massive climate change and global warming catastrophes that are coming...
A very good metaphor and way to think about the 6 phases of the unfolding Climageddon Scenario (described below,) is to imagine numerous waves of larger and larger asteroids crashing into the earth over shorter and shorter periods of time between the next wave of asteroids. For the sake of the metaphor's accuracy, imagine these waves of asteroids have already begun and will continue throughout 10-60 years.
(Please see the illustration below which will provide a quick but necessary minimal overview of the many consequences of 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario for the sake of the asteroid story. The temperatures listed below in both Celsius and Fahrenheit are the predicted increases in average global temperature that will most probably occur at each of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario due to increasing global warming consequences.)
Now that you can see that temperatures (consequences,) will continue to rise at each new Climageddon Scenario phase, you are ready to continue with the asteroid story and metaphor.
At first, the asteroid waves are made of smaller asteroids and the waves will be farther apart. In the earlier asteroid waves, the asteroid impact consequences grow in a slower, gradual, and linear manner. In later waves, the asteroids grow larger and the waves now grow closer and closer together in time. Unfortunately, in the later larger waves, the asteroid consequences will grow faster and exponentially.
Next, imagine that each new wave of the asteroids almost always hits the earth in the illustration below between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south (between the two yellow/mustard colored lines.)
These would be the most asteroid-unsafe areas to live in in the future.
And finally, imagine the last wave of “planet-killing” large asteroids also hit the earth between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south.
To help you envision what will likely happen to society and your life during this unfolding asteroid cataclysm story and metaphor, it is useful to look to another story, the 1998 Hollywood science fiction disaster film called Deep Impact. This movie depicted humanity’s combined efforts to prepare for and destroy a 7-mile (11 km) wide planet-killer asteroid set to collide with Earth and cause a mass extinction.
In this movie, to prevent the asteroid from reaching Earth, Russia and the United States send a spacecraft with nuclear weapons to destroy it before it reaches the critical minimal distance from Earth. The spaceship reaches the proper critical distance in time, but the nuclear weapons’ first attempt fails and instead splits the comet into two smaller masses, both still heading directly for Earth.
After the U.S. President announces the failure to prevent the asteroid catastrophe, he declares martial law and reveals that in anticipation of this possible failure, governments worldwide have been secretly building underground shelters in what they believe will be the safest areas to ride out the impact. The U.S. government then conducts an emergency lottery and randomly selects 800,000 Americans under age 50. The government has also chosen 200,000 secretly pre-selected individuals to also enter the survival shelters bypassing the lottery. Not surprisingly, they are top government officials, top military brass, key scientists, and powerful corporate elites.
Around the world, the lucky and the pre-selected few go to the underground shelters, which also contain seeds for every species of plant, important viable animals, as well as massive food supplies for the would-be shelter survivors.
The first asteroid mass impacts Cape Hatteras in the Atlantic Ocean, causing a tsunami up to 3,500 feet (1,100 meters) high. The second mass is due to impact western Canada, creating a cloud of dust that will block out the sun for two years, killing all unsheltered life on Earth in a matter of weeks.
At the last minute, the damaged spacecraft carrying the remaining nuclear weapons hits the larger second mass in a suicide mission, breaking it up so that most of it burns up in the atmosphere or misses the planet completely.
After the survivors finally come out of their shelters, the President speaks to a large crowd, telling them they've been blessed with a second chance to call Earth their home...
Here's what's important about this story and its metaphor in relation to its similarities to the unfolding Climageddon Scenario. In the preceding metaphor and story, the most obvious parallels to the escalating global warming emergency and the Climageddon Scenario are:
1. Just as they are in the asteroid wave metaphor, our global warming consequences will come faster and faster and grow larger and larger with each new phase of the six Climageddon Scenario phases. (Worse yet, in the mid to later phases of the Climageddon Scenario our consequences (which you will be reading about soon,) will begin growing exponentially.)
2. As we move through the six phases of the Climageddon Scenario there will be many of other unthinkable consequences that occur within our social, economic, and political systems just as in the movie when humanity faces its end. Some of those are rare and noble sacrifices, others are widespread panic, chaos, looting, crime, cruelty, and loss of basic human rights.
2 As global warming consequences continue to worsen in the later phases of the Climageddon Scenario, governments will be forced to declare martial law, and there will be lotteries and secret pre-selection and quotas for who still will be able to move to the global warming safer zones near or above the 45th parallel north or near or below the 45th parallel south to escape the chaos occurring within that middle highest danger zone a little longer.
3. If we keep going as we are now without radically reducing global fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 global fossil fuel reductions targets and we somehow survive the coming global warming consequences, most of humanity will die and there will have to be a massive, difficult, and costly rebuilding of civilization by the few remaining survivors if there are any survivors.
As you continue to think about the many kinds of facts in the Climageddon Scenario article, please keep in mind the Deep Impact end-of-the-world asteroid movie story because its unfolding process is a good metaphor for how the Climageddon Scenario’s most serious consequences will also grow worse, closer and closer, and faster and faster over time. Also, please don't forget we still do have a last chance for humanity and civilization to survive, but only if we successfully reach the challenging 2025 global fossil fuel reductions targets.
Who most needs to understand how the Climageddon Scenario Extinction Countdown unfolds
Understanding the rapidly unfolding progression of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Countdown scenario is critical for every individual, business, or nation that wants to thrive or survive over the next 5, 10, 20, 30 or more years and takes planning for their or financial, physical and political future security seriously.
Understanding the Climageddon Scenario is crucial information for anyone involved in:
- personal, financial, or security short or mid-to long-range planning,
city, corporate, or national mid-to long-range planning,
- planning, financing, or building mid-to long-term infrastructures such as highways, water treatment or sewage plants, power plants, power transfer stations, power lines, hospitals, government buildings, manufacturing facilities, distribution centers, military bases, corporate headquarters, real estate developments, and telecommunications facilities, and
- the threat, hazard, and business or insurance risk assessment.
Here is additional key information to help you better understand the global warming future consequences and timetables using the 6 Phases of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown as a model
In the following detailed descriptions, warning signs, and consequence countdown timetables for the Climageddon Scenario's 6 phases, you will learn what you need to know to protect your family, finances, business, and nation. But, to get the most out of what you are about to read and to plan your global warming safer future if you have not done so already, you will need to have a good basic understanding of the dynamics of global warming. If you don't, be sure to click the following links basic and illustrated global warming education articles as needed.
a. what global warming is and how it works,
b. what are global warming's 20 worst consequences,
In order to have the necessary understanding of how global warming tipping points will throw our shared future into turmoil and chaos, we also strongly recommend that you read these pages as well:
c. the four extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points, and
d. the 11 key global warming tipping points. This will help you better understand how global warming's 11 major tipping points create climate and human system crashes and collapses, (This article covers the basics of positive feedback loops, complex adaptive systems, systems theory, and things like nonlinear consequence responses common after tipping points are crossed.)
Although you will be able to understand much of the Climageddon Scenario without reading and understanding the four links above, it will be more difficult for you to see how most of the consequences within each of the 6 Climageddon phases will synergetically multiply, accelerate and amplify each other and produce the very scary reality of the following Climageddon Extinction Scenario six phases.
We have made the inherently very complex Climageddon 6 phase extinction model as simple as possible with lots of additional illustrations as you will soon see, but if you do not understand the basics of global warming listed in a-d above, you may not see the seriousness of what is already happening or, it will be difficult for you to see how the following layers and levels of the phase-by-phase Climageddon consequences fit together to create a mass extinction event which will occur within our lifetimes if we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by plus or minus 5 percent.
And finally, here are some important technical details relating to the Climageddon Scenario extinction model:
1. The timeframes and costs for the various global warming consequences described below for the six phases of the Climageddon Scenario are based on the best available science as well as compensatory calculations and projections for underestimated or politicized official global warming reports as well as "cooked" calculations for non-existent carbon capture technology and the missing additional calculations due to the absence of almost all tipping point calculations in official global warming reports. (See the links in this paragraph for detailed descriptions for these compensatory calculations.)
2. There is no doubt that critics may find some minor areas where they can say this or that prediction is off by a few percent due to some new research. Still, that minor detail does not and will not outweigh the overwhelming body of global warming knowledge or facts fairly presented in the Climageddon Scenario extinction model. Climageddon convincingly demonstrates that humanity faces a high probability of mass extinction within 3-5 decades if we fail to reach the necessary global fossil fuel reductions.
3. Please keep in mind that the temperature, carbon ppm, and loss or cost levels for each of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario described below are not hard and rigid boundaries. They may and will be updated by future research. So far, new research has supported the details of the Climageddon Scenario research and, in some places, has shown several of its predictions to be too conservative.
4. ll temperature amounts in this document (or any other document on our website) are always displayed as the Celsius or Fahrenheit increase from preindustrial average global temperatures.
5. The severity, frequency, and scale of the many consequences listed below will not always occur in a steadily increasing linear line, curve, or pattern. There will be intermittent periods of relatively stable levels of consequences and EVEN periods of lessening consequences before the next phase and wave of consequences continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale to the next level.
6. The beginning and ending boundaries for each phase of the 6 Climageddon Scenario phases are approximate for temperature, time frame, and carbon ppm levels. As such, there will be some inherent overlap in temperature, timetable, and carbon parts per million (ppm) levels between the different scenario phases.
7. In the Climageddon temperature and time illustrations, the CS Phase stands for another one of the six Climageddon Scenario phases.
8. There will be many warning signs and timetables to take in on the Climageddon Scenario phases below, but don't worry. If you can't remember or process all of the details, the summary, charts, and illustrations near the end of the Climageddon Scenario will simplify and summarize the critical information described within its six phases.)
9. The Climageddon Scenario was first explained in the 2017 book Climageddon. The new Climageddon Scenario version 2.0 which you are about to read, contains major upgrades and additions based on new research studies and analysis that has occurred since 2017.
Here are the 6 phases of the Climageddon Countdown Extinction Scenario
The next section describes the 6 phases of the Climageddon Countdown Extinction Scenario in phase-by-phase detail. It also contains many more illustrations and charts (like the one below) as well as decade-by-decade global warming consequence information that was difficult and expensive for our organization to acquire. This detailed year-by-year information is invaluable is to any individual, business, or nation attempting to plan for how the escalating global warming emergency will directly affect their future life quality, finances, and security.
Climageddon Scenario Phase 1, From 2020 until as soon as 2026-2032
The temperature continues to rise, catastrophes increase, and carbon hits 400-450 ppm!
Phase 1 is the beginning of catastrophic climate destabilization. Phase 1 is associated with a measurement of atmospheric carbon in the range of 400-450 ppm. As of August 2020, we were already at about carbon 414 ppm.
(If you do not already understand why the atmospheric CO2 carbon graph (above) will be the best indicator of what your future will be like, click here and look down the page until you see another graphic illustration.)
In Phase 1, the atmospheric carbon ppm rate continues to increase each year at only about 3 ppm per year. The average global temperature continues to go up in a continuous but hopefully only in a linear degree-by-degree manner.
In this phase, the many global warming consequences continue increasing in frequency, severity, and scale (area covered,) but once again in a linear manner. In Phase 1, the cost of significant single-instance, global warming-influenced disasters will average in the $30-$100 billion range.
The early stage of phase 1
In the early stage of Phase 1 (from carbon 407-425 ppm,) which we are in now (at carbon 414 ppm) and will be in until about 2025, temperatures will increase beyond the estimated current 1.2° Celsius (about 2.2° Fahrenheit) rise. They will eventually increase our average global temperature by about 1.7°-2.2° Celsius (3°-4° Fahrenheit.)
“[The] ...atmospheric greenhouse gas levels (~400ppm CO2 and ~485 CO2e [carbon dioxide equivalent]) are likely the highest in the last 15 million years, and never previously experienced by humans. The current conditions, if maintained over centuries/millennia (that is until the system reaches equilibrium), would likely produce temperature increases of +3-6° Celsius and sea levels 25–40 meters higher, based on evidence of past climates.” —David Spratt, “Climate Reality Check”
If the average global temperature in Phase 1 continues to rise degree-by-degree, even without crossing any more points of no return or global warming, climate, human, and biological system tipping points, the bad news is we still likely and quite easily bring about the end-of-humanity scenario as described in the later phases of the Climageddon Scenario. Please keep in mind that just the small average global temperature increase we have had thus far is already causing millions of people to become climagees and migrate toward the more northern countries in Europe and North America.
Please also note that early phase 1 could end as early as 2026 if fossil fuel burning goes up considerably and/or we cross additional key global warming tipping points.
The later stage of phase 1, the first and most important tipping point
(Special note for the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point. This section contains the key reasons why we have only about 6 years left to slow down the coming mass extinction event and our crossing of the two most dangerous global warming tipping points described further below. Additionally, only by reaching or coming very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets do we have any reasonable chance of preventing an even worse, near-total extinction event from ending humanity and civilization. As you read about the three major global warming tipping points below, our current extreme extinction threat will become more real to you. )
In the later stage of Phase 1, if we continue only up to carbon 425-450 ppm, in about 16 years or less (about 2022-2032) we can expect an eventual increase in average global temperature of about 2.2°-2.7° Celsius (4°-4.9° Fahrenheit), and millions of more people will be forced to either migrate or die.
When we cross the very dangerous carbon 425 ppm level and enter the very slippery slope of the later stage of phase one of the Climageddon Scenario to just before we hit carbon 450 ppm in early Phase 2, it is highly probable because of crossing more global warming tipping points, points of no return and positive feedback loops at these higher temperatures, we will have reached a key threshold transition point where we will continue near uncontrollably on this very slippery slope toward 3°, 4°, 5°, and 6° Celsius temperature increases (5.4°, 7.2°, 9°, and 10.8° Fahrenheit.) These temperature levels would eventually lead to the extinction of most of humanity.
When we cross this carbon 425-450 ppm battle line, in addition to leading us to likely mass extinction in as little as the next 30 to 50 years, its consequences will also be irreversible for centuries to thousands of years.
In essence, we cannot ever allow ourselves to enter into the later stage of phase one (carbon 425-450 ppm) of the Climageddon Scenario because we will almost certainly go over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point and into the processes of likely extinction. The only way to keep from crossing the carbon 425 to 450 ppm tipping point is to radically and immediately and radically reduce fossil fuel usage by the correct amounts (which will soon be discussed.)
In order to prepare you for the shocking, REAL and correct fossil fuel reductions that must be made if we are going to save humanity from unimaginable loss, suffering, death, and likely extinction, it is first necessary to see just how poorly our previous fossil fuel reduction agreements and actions have fared since we were first notified about the global warming extinction danger by our scientists over 35 years ago.
What has been hidden from you:
- We have actually increased fossil fuel use more this century than in the last two decades of the 20th century. To make this point alarmingly clear, more than half of all fossil fuel emissions that have been released in the last 25 years and parked in the atmosphere are more than was released in all of recorded history before 1990.
- Even though we have had over 20 international conferences on fossil fuel use reduction, and we had international treaties since at least 1993 pledging we would reduce global warming, worldwide we still are about 67% higher in carbon emissions than in the early 1990s. (Atmospheric carbon emissions is probably the best way to measure future global warming.)
- In 2018 carbon emissions increased another dramatic 2.7% and they are projected to increase once again in 2019.
Yes, intentionally or through ignorance, our governments, the media, and most of the world's environmental groups have not been telling us the REAL facts about how our REAL lack of any progress whatsoever in reducing the rate of fossil fuel use increases, much less the complete absence of any substantive reductions anywhere across the world in reducing atmospheric carbon.
Keeping the preceding horrific failure of any appreciable efforts to take seriously fossil fuel reductions, or even reducing the rates of increases, now please explore the REAL fossil fuel reductions that must be made to save our future. (If you don't believe we are telling you the facts about our dismal failure in reducing global warming over the last 35 years, click here to view a short video by climate Professor Kevin Anderson in a recent presentation to the Oxford University Climate Society.)
(If you do not understand or are uncertain about how fossil fuel emissions of carbon in the atmosphere create global warming, please click here for a set of simple illustrations and then continue reading...
What must now be done to correctly reduce our fossil fuel usage and save humanity and our future
The absolute minimum total fossil fuel reductions that must occur to prevent the likelihood of our going extinct within the next few decades are:
- All industrially developed nations must reduce their total fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025 and then continue reducing fossil fuel use to net-zero carbon emissions by 2035. Net-zero carbon emissions in this solution mean that no additional fossil fuel emissions are going into the atmosphere that are not also being simultaneously removed from the atmosphere by natural means. (Only about 20 countries produce 70% or more of the world's carbon emissions.)
Think of developed nations like most members of the G 20 group; Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, and India. (See technical note 1 near the end of this page for why China and India had to be included in the list of developed countries.)
2. All developing nations must maintain their total fossil fuel emission levels as they are at the beginning of 2019 and not allow them to go any higher. Then by 2045, all developing nations must also be at net-zero carbon emissions. This allowance for developing nations to stay at the level they are now and gradually reduce down to net-zero carbon emissions by 2045 is part of an essential justice and equity equation. The developed nations created their wealth by producing the far greatest majority of all carbon emissions in the atmosphere today, thus causing almost all of our current global warming extinction emergency. (See technical note 2 near the end of this page for more about justice and equity allowances.)
(Please click here for all of the related information and qualifying factors relating to the above targets for developing and developed nations listed above.)
As mentioned previously, the steadily rising temperatures of Climageddon's Phase 1 will feed and accelerate the processes of crossing more points of no return, positive feedback loops and global warming, climate, human, and biological system tipping points pushing us ever closer to dangerous carbon 425 to 450 ppm range. The probability of maintaining only a gradually increasing average global temperature without random tipping point-related temperature spikes is highly unlikely (less than 10-20%.) This is because as the temperature goes up the probability of crossing more tipping points goes up as well.
It is important to keep in mind that as we continue crossing more global warming tipping points, the 20 worst global warming consequences and the consequences of the tipping points themselves will of themselves continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale. This is because:
- The points of no return before a tipping point is crossed as well as the crossed tipping point itself, create "slippery" conditions where it becomes far easier for that condition or consequence to worsen far more quickly and at a far steeper gradient.
- tipping points when crossed create sudden and extremely difficult to recover from steep drop-offs or complete system crashes,
- any positive feedback loop contained within the tipping point processes will also significantly amplify either the positive or negative consequences of that tipping point, and
- a crossed tipping point within a system or subsystem tends to push other tipping points over their tipping points in the subsystems or systems associated with or interconnected to the original tipping point.
In the later stage of Phase 1, (as well as all of the other 5 phases below,) unless we make the required radical global fossil fuel reductions described above, it is also unlikely that:
- we will be able to maintain the previous average annual increase of only carbon 3 ppm. (In part it will probably go higher because of the Earth's population soaring to 9 billion, causing our estimated energy needs to skyrocket by 40% as more of the world’s population enters the middle class.) And, most importantly
2. because of our fossil fuel burning momentum and human system inertias, once we hit the 425 to 450 carbon PPM range we will not be able to keep from rapidly sliding down a much steeper and very slippery slope into and through the other following Climageddon Scenario phases.
At the 425 to 450 carbon ppm range, there will be so much climate system momentum from previously committed carbon and other greenhouse gas pollution of our atmosphere towards moving quickly to even higher temperatures, that stopping this momentum will be like trying to stop a gigantic boulder from rolling faster and faster down a hill that keeps getting steeper and steeper.
The terrifying thought that is completely real and critical for you to burn into your brain is that most of humanity will suffer and die by mid-century, but our ability to have any real or meaningful control over this looming emergency ends around about 2025 when we enter the carbon 425-450 ppm range. But this will only occur if we fail to successfully execute global fossil fuel reductions described above.
And in case you're still thinking technology will save us at the last minute, no new carbon removal technologies (that we call magical carbon sucking unicorns,) will be able to save us in time because even those who believe they might save us are projecting that they will not even be available at the earliest until sometime after 2050. This will be long after the damage is done and long after anything can be done for the billions of people who will suffer and die!
Because of the preceding, we have no other rational alternative other than to prevent ever crossing into this highly dangerous transitional carbon 425-450 ppm range and tipping point, at which our current rate of greenhouse gas pollution will begin sometime around 2025.
Do you still have doubts if the 425 to 450 carbon ppm range safe? Here is some other research that while we feel that it still suffers from politicizing underestimation errors and lack of factoring in the crossing of any tipping points, it is still worth reviewing so you know it is not just us warning you how bad this threshold is.
Click here to learn more about how another 10 climate scientists view the serious dangers of crossing the 425 to 450 carbon ppm range.
“The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: Key Findings on Climate Change” summarizes predictions by climate scientists’ models: we have a 50% chance of stabilizing the average global temperature at a 2°C increase over the pre-industrial period if we keep concentrations of CO2 under 450 ppm. A November 2013 report by PwC, Busting the carbon Budget, says that at our current rate of fossil fuel usage in the global economy, we will exceed that limit by 2034.
The probability of crossing from Phase 1 below carbon 425 ppm into Phase 2 over 425 ppm is inevitable because of the many factors described above and because of the 13 reasons described near the top of the following link, Is global warming out of our meaningful control for at least the next 30-50+ years?
The warning signs of phase 1, 2026-2032
The following listing of positive feedback loops, points of no return, tipping points, consequences, and interactions with our other current global challenges should be considered as good early warning signs we are both in phase 1 or moving rapidly through phase 1 into phase 2. Watch for information about these warning signs, consequences, and events occurring in the news.
Particularly watch to see if they're being described as worse than before or as breaking all previous records. Look carefully at what the consequence pattern and trend is moving toward.
The following are the best objective warning signs that individuals can see for themselves and that will motivate thoughtful individuals to act appropriately:
Phase 1: The most probable initial positive feedback loops, points of no return, and tipping points to occur or be crossed are as follows:
1. Decreased albedo from reduced snow cover and melting Arctic ice increasing the earth's heat,
2. Increased sea ice and glacier melt resulting in additional sea-level rise,
3. Increased atmospheric water vapor increases resulting in more extreme weather,
4. Increased permafrost and tundra heating releasing more carbon and methane and which results in more heat and more disease epidemics and possible pandemics. This once again speeds up the whole process of more positive feedback loops and crossing more points of no return and tipping points.
Please also note that melting permafrost in the tundra is because the northernmost areas are warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. This permafrost melting also has the potential to cause local and global pandemics caused by ancient viruses and bacteria being released from the permafrost. Already in Siberia they have had localized anthrax and smallpox outbreaks because of the decomposition of ancient frozen animals from the melting permafrost and tundra which residents either had no immunity to or who were not prepared to deal with these outbreaks due to lack of available vaccines.
5. Decreased carbon capture from the world's forests as temperatures rise and forests go from removing carbon from the atmosphere to carbon-neutral, no longer removing carbon from the atmosphere. Carbon neutral is the state that occurs before overheated over-stressed forests begin to release carbon back into the atmosphere.
(Click here to learn more about each item listed above.)
The most likely major tipping point to be crossed and worsen sometime in phase 1
There is an extinction-accelerating tipping point area that is the most likely first candidate to significantly accelerate the beginning of the end of humanity. It is the increased melting of summer and year-round arctic polar ice due to global warming.
It will truly have profound effects not only on worldwide weather but more importantly, on lowering global crop yields and increasing global crop failures. It will cause an accelerating massive global starvation, which will then also destabilize national economics, politics, and society.
In the summer, when Arctic ice melts there is less cooling of all of the growing season areas affected anywhere by arctic weather. The more polar ice melts each year the less cooling and the more heat in and during these critical growing season areas.
To make matters worse, food crops are more sensitive to heat when there are droughts and, they are more sensitive to heat, rain bombs, and cold spells when they are just beginning to grow. Unfortunately, because more ice is melting in the Arctic ocean almost every summer and staying melted longer in the year we are losing more and more critical cooling for our absolutely vital food crop growing season.
The five major food grains are the largest source of the world's food supply. They are corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, and sorghum.
All of these grains have upper and lower temperature limits. Most of them cannot survive more than 10 days during their growing season over 100° Fahrenheit particularly, if this heat comes early in their growing season or when their soils are drought dry.
Because of the continually increasing loss of the cooling effect on growing regions below the Arctic because of the continually diminishing Arctic ice, the number of growing season days with temperatures over 100° will continue increasing steadily as more and more Arctic ice melts and remains melted longer throughout the year.
Because melting Arctic ice also affects and disrupts the jet stream and ocean currents like the Gulf Stream, you will also have radical and unseasonable cold spells appearing during the prime crop growing seasons around the world. This will also reduce food yields and produce more crop failures during the fragile growing season.
This means that the world is going to continue to experience more and larger crop reductions and failures as more polar ice melts and stays melted longer. To make matters even worse, corn is one of the largest food staples for humanity and it is also one of the most sensitive crops to increasing 100 degrees plus temperatures and drought.
The following is from Wikipedia:
“Since 1979, the minimum annual area of sea ice in the Arctic has dropped by about 40%, as measured each September. From sea ice models and recent satellite images, it can be expected that a sea ice-free summer will come before 2020. Models that best match historical trends project a nearly ice-free Arctic in the summer by the 2030s. However, these models do tend to underestimate the rate of sea ice loss since 2007.” (If you would like to see a video of how more polar ice is melting each summer as the years go by click here for this NASA video.)
The increasing melting of arctic polar ice is a clear warning sign of increasing global warming and future serious reductions in major future crop yields as well as serious increases in future crop failures. This means not only higher prices but ever-increasing food scarcity and increasing global starvation.
This is not something far-off in the future. It is already happening in many areas of the world.
It is also already causing major migrations. This expanding and increasing polar ice melting is a major “canary in the coal mine” for increasing future mass starvation not way off in 2100 as we have been told but in the near years and new few decades to follow.
Already in the growing belt of the United States, we are seeing increased and record-breaking heat, droughts, rain bombs, and other extreme seasonal weather that is having a direct effect in reducing crop yields and crop failures in the most vulnerable areas. This pattern of greater crop yield reductions and crop failures will continue to increase as long as more polar ice disappears and the Arctic remains relatively ice-free into longer and longer summers. As the process of massive crop reductions and failures expands and continues, mass starvation will begin to destabilize all of our other economic, social, and political systems.
Additionally, reduced polar ice also reduces the albedo effect, which simply is that white snow or ice reflects heat back away from the earth and out into the atmosphere keeping the earth cooler. As more Arctic polar ice is melted the darker polar oceans absorb the heat, and then heat up more, which once again, causes more global warming.
If temperatures continue rising, the time frames in which we will be crossing more of the tipping points listed above will get shorter. But that will not be the only significant effect of melting Arctic ice due to global warming. Paradoxically, according to new studies, because of melting Arctic ice we will also have more extreme cold and heavier snows during the US winters.
In general, increased crop yield reductions and crop failures will increasingly occur in each of the following Climageddon Scenario phases because of arctic ice melt, increased heat, increased droughts, increase cold spells and increased extreme weather storms that will make it more and more impossible for modern agriculture and the major food crops to survive throughout their current growing seasons. There are estimates that crop yield reductions and crop failures will average 5 to 10% or more for each degree that the average global temperature rises until the planet becomes so warm that far too many days of the growing season will be at 100° or more. This will make successfully growing the world's major grains all but impossible.
Additional thoughts on the critical importance of the global warming tipping point emergency
Because we have ignored 60 years of warming, we are already deep into the global warming trajectory toward the collapse of civilization. This collapse outcome is highly likely because nine of the known global warming and climate change tipping points that regulate the state of the planet have been activated. See below.
These nine activated tipping points can trigger abrupt and significant releases of carbon back into the atmosphere, such as the release of carbon dioxide and methane caused by the irreversible thawing of the Arctic permafrost.
After global warming tipping points are crossed, additional warming would become self-sustaining due to both positive feedback loops within the climate system and the mutual interaction of these global warming tipping points. It is best to think about these nine interacting global warming tipping points within the climate system like a row of dominos.
These climate system tipping points are so interconnected that knocking over the first couple of "dominos" will most likely lead to a cascade knocking over many, if not all, of them. Once the above global warming tipping point "dominos" begin their falling cascade, we are already at a criminal point of no return.
Because of these global warming tipping points and positive feedback loops, Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director emeritus and founder of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, believes that if we go much above 2° C, we will quickly get to 4° C anyway. A 4° C increase would spell the end of human civilization.
Distinguished Professor of Meteorology Michael Mann from the University of Pennsylvania recently stated that once we have reached the carbon 405 ppm level in our atmosphere, a 2 degrees C average global temperature increase is already baked in, and there is nothing we can do to stop it! As of June 2020, we are currently at carbon 416 ppm.
Johan Rockström, the head of one of Europe's leading research institutes, warned that in a 4°C warmer world, it would be "difficult to see how we could accommodate a billion people or even half of that. Not even a rich minority world survive with modern lifestyles in the post 4°C-warmer turbulent, conflict-ridden world".
Other climate scientists have warned that once the climate warms 4 degrees C over our preindustrial average temperate, human adaptation to these temperature levels will be all but impossible!
Leading Stanford University biologists, released new research recently showing species extinctions are accelerating in an unprecedented manner. This rapid loss of biodiversity is another likely tipping point for the collapse of human civilization. (These are the same Stanford biologists who were first to warn us that we are already experiencing the sixth mass extinction on Earth.)
Soon we will lose control of the tipping points for the Amazon rainforest, the West Antarctic ice sheet, and the Greenland ice sheet in much less time than it's going to take us to get to global net-zero emissions. There is a crucial way to think about this race to get to net-zero emissions before we cross more extinction creating global warming tipping points.
Imagine that the captain on the Titanic suddenly sees the iceberg in front of him. To slow and steer the Titanic, he needs at least 3 miles, but he is only 1 mile away from the iceberg. In this example, the titanic is already doomed the moment the captain notices the iceberg.
This Titanic example is not much different than our current situation with our trying to reach the last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and get to net-zero emissions. We have wasted so much time over the previous 35 years ignoring valid scientific warnings; we may not have enough time to "steer" away from extinction.
We already have a baked-in minimal 2 degrees C in average global temperature increase and, we have initiated the global tipping point cascade effect, which will quickly get us to 4°C and the collapse of civilization. This alone will rapidly take us to a far less habitable planet and climate regardless of any additional global fossil fuel emission reductions we might now make.
In the image above, the Planetary Threshold dividing line is the tipping point previously mentioned of crossing over the carbon 425-450 ppm-level. As one can see, once we cross that carbon 425-450 ppm Planetary Threshold line the stability of the planetary climate rapidly collapses into an over-heating uninhabitable Earth!
Phase 1: The following complete list of phase 1 global warming consequences will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale from 2020-2032.
Many of these consequences are interconnected and interdependent. Some also exist in transformational relationships and processes which can amplify or multiply each other's consequences, or disrupt our abilities to control these consequences.
The complete list of global warming-related consequences that will occur and continue to increase in this phase from continuing to burn fossil fuels at anything close to the rates we are now are:
1. atmospheric heating which increases average global temperature,
2. new disease outbreaks, epidemics, and more COVID-19 like pandemics in areas where they have never been before. (This is due to loss of natural animal habitat, eating more wild animals, additional melting of the permafrost, overcrowding, less resilient health systems, and mass migrations. Because of accelerating global warming consequences, we could be experiencing COVID-19 type pandemics every decade.)
3. shrinking sea ice and ice shelves, glaciers and snowpack,
4. ever-increasing crop failures (because of heatwaves, rain bombs, droughts, flooding, wildfires, and other extreme weather) increasing mass starvation, and causing soaring food prices. (Please note that the world's five principal grains (rice, wheat, maize [corn], millet, and sorghum,) are particularly vulnerable to crop failure when temperatures are near or above 100 degrees Fahrenheit more than 20-30 days during their regular growing periods.)
5. extreme storms of all kinds, (hurricanes, tornadoes, rain bombs, bomb cyclones, etc,)
7. clean drinking water scarcity,
9. fires and wildfires,
11. toxic air pollution,
12. ocean acidification, (which causes critical sea life and reefs to die. Ocean heating and ocean acidification from carbon from global warming will eventually kill off much of the oceans' oxygen-producing plankton. These plankton are responsible for as much as 50% of all oxygen produced on the planet.) )
13. loss of biodiversity,
14. jet stream disruption,
15. mass human migrations,
16 animal and insect migrations,
17. forests that were a major stabilizing force absorbing carbon become neutral in their carbon absorption and stop taking carbon from the atmosphere. (Soon in later phases the forests will begin to release their vast stores of carbon pushing temperatures higher even faster.)
18. economic losses. (In this phase, most nations will spend 1-3 percent of their total gross domestic product (GDP) directly or indirectly paying for the consequences of the global warming emergency.)
Click here to learn more of the technical details about how each of the previous global warming consequences will increase in severity, frequency, and scale with each progressive Climageddon phase.
In one way or another, directly or indirectly as the above list of heat-driven global warming consequences increase in severity, frequency, and scale the following things occur. Many of these consequences are interconnected and interdependent. Some also exist in transformational relationships and processes which can amplify or multiply each other's consequences, or disrupt our abilities to control these consequences.
They are the critical warning signs to watch in the news to know that the global collapse process is accelerating and worsening:
1. Because of increased global warming and other global challenge-related work disruptions, the total human capacity to work or produce will go down significantly. This will cause more business and product distribution interruptions, business and personal uncertainty as well as more unemployment and homelessness.
2. There will be less food available from failed and shrinking food crops due to many of the extreme climate consequences such as extreme heat, droughts, flooding, rain bombs, nonseasonal weather, and other extreme weather events.
3. Many food prices will rise considerably more than the normal cost of living increases. (For example, fish prices will rise considerably as the remaining over-stressed fish stocks are depleted to near extinction.
4. More people will be starving.
5. The cost of living, for repair, maintenance, building, or rebuilding in global warming safer areas will continue to rise significantly. There will be more homelessness everywhere.
6. There will be increasing disease, epidemics, and pandemics as conditions worsen and health services are stretched thin.
7. There be increasing mass migrations of starving, sick, and unemployed people fleeing from the many climate consequences as well as from an ever-increasing number of unstable or collapsed economies or nations.
8. There will be widespread, survival-driven criminality by larger and larger portions of a starving, unemployed, homeless, or migrant populations. (Imagine increasing numbers of desperate individuals and groups trying to stay alive by any means possible. Now imagine your favorite dystopian movie like Mad Max. This will give you a small taste of what the future struggle to stay alive will be like as most of the global challenges mentioned earlier continue to worsen.
9. Because of the growing survival-driven criminality, migrations, and social and political chaos, governments will impose states of emergency and martial law resulting in increased restrictions, suffering, and the loss of many hard-won human rights. Nations will be forced to become more military and totalitarian in their control of the population to deal with the growing losses, chaos, and shortages of essential resources.
10. As the social, economic, and political chaos spreads, it will trigger more regional, national, and international conflicts and more conventional wars. There also will be a significantly large potential for a new nuclear, biological, or chemical war. These conflicts and wars will be due to increasing food and other resource scarcity, scarcity of global warming-safe land, unstoppable mass migrations, and the other consequences listed on this page.
11. When all of the above items are taken collectively, it will cause even the strongest nations' economies and political systems to collapse.
12. Once most of the national governments have collapsed, the nuclear reactors, chemical, and biological weapons, and their manufacturing, service, and storage facilities will become compromised. This is because there will be no or few functioning national governments to maintain operations or security for these sites. Hundreds of millions will sicken and die as nuclear reactors go critical and meltdown spewing toxic radiation worldwide. Millions more will sicken as die from the releases of insecure biological weapons and industrial chemicals. If too many nuclear reactors go critical and meltdown, the radiation circling the planets will kill off everything.
13. As all of the above intensifies, human suffering and global deaths will continue to rise exponentially. Human deaths will eventually reach mass extinction or even near-total extinction levels, and what we have known to be our civilization will collapse.
14. If there are any unlucky survivors after the global collapse, they will most likely enter a new Dark Age. But, this will not be like the Dark Age that occurred during the Middle Ages. It will be far worse because most of the natural resources available during the original Dark Age already will have been depleted, and much of the planet will be toxic. And finally,
15. Suppose we do not experience a complete runaway global warming event, and we make it through the post-collapse new Dark Ages. In that case, it will take centuries to thousands of years for nature and the climate system to come back into balance. Only then will the conditions suitable for humans to thrive once again exist-- if any humans are left at that time. (Complete runaway global warming is where the average global temperature keeps rising until Earth's atmosphere is ripped off into space like what happened on Venus.)
Hopefully, at this far distant time, any surviving bands, clans, tribes, or communities still functioning will have learned the first great global collapse lessons, and they will have changed their behaviors. They will now model the needed new behaviors, such as the principles of sustainable prosperity and the principles of evolutionary success, among other new possible policies to finally resolve all of the issues raised in the global challenges described above.
If these survivors have genuinely learned the lessons from the first great global collapse of civilization, they will develop a new worldview and new economic, political, and social systems. This new worldview will provide the tools and opportunity for a tremendous new re-building and reboot of humanity.
Humanity will have an opportunity to experience a unique renaissance where humankind and nature come into a balance that allows both to flourish once again. Whatever is left of humanity will restart the greatest evolutionary adventure in our history.
Fasten your seat belts. Strap on your shoulder harness and put on your helmets. We are entering the extreme turbulence of the beginning of the global collapse process. The COVID-19 pandemic and the current global recession/depression are just a small beginning of it.
Unfortunately, it is going to get a whole lot worse before our governments take it seriously and act! The baby boomers (born from 1946 to 1964) are likely to be the last generation that will experience any near-continuous measure of stability, security, and safety during their lifespans. But even they will have a very rough ride as they approach the end of their years.
Phase 1: From 2020-2032, there will be continual critical reactions of global warming consequences with our other global challenges (listed below,) which will cross-intensify and worsen many of the global warming consequences of this phase as well as our other global challenges themselves.
Here are the other non-global warming challenges to our global society that will both interact with each other and likely continue to worsen in this phase of the Climageddon Scenario. Please note that while the Climageddon Scenario is mainly focused on global warming, it also must include all of our major other global challenges, as listed below. This is because most of these other different global challenges will interact with global warming, and many of them will further intensify the consequences of global warming.
These other major global challenges listed below are steadily getting worse over time and are also likely to add additional economic, social, and political instability, uncertainty, and chaos to the destruction caused by global warming in this phase. In some cases, these challenges getting worse over time can even speed up the negative effects of economic, social, and political instability, uncertainty, and chaos caused by global warming within this particular Climageddon Scenario phase.
Today's most dangerous global challenges fueling the likelihood of the first great global collapse are:
Global Challenge 1: Resolving the current COVID-19 global pandemic. Directly and indirectly, the current COVID-19 pandemic is due in significant part to the loss of natural wild animal habitats caused by global warming and other man-made causes such as eating more wild and not domesticated animals, the exploding and hungry world populations crowding into urban areas, and the overall deterioration of global health services.
If a vaccine is ever found, the COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to go on around the world until mid to late 2021 or even into early 2022 before everyone is vaccinated. If no vaccine is found, like what has happened with AIDS, Lyme disease, and many other viruses over the last 30 years, we will be living with the effects of COVID-19 until a “herd immunity” is developed and if that immunity is even applicable to this virus. A somewhat safer global herd immunity could take as many a 3-5 years to develop.)
Global Challenge 2: increasing global economic instabilities that are leading to regularly reoccurring global and national recessions or depressions over shorter and shorter time periods. (These recessions and depressions are fueled by existing economic weaknesses, lack of financial reserves, huge national deficits, low financial system resilience, and major unexpected shocks or events (like COVID-19,) hitting the global markets and global financial systems.
COVID-19 is predicted to create a global financial recession or depression that could last until late 2022 or until 2025 or as long as 2030. (Ten years for recovery from a COVID-19 global recession or depression is not that long when you consider that ten years is the time it took to recover from the 2008 global banking and housing meltdown and recession.)
Global Challenge 3: ever-rising over-population, (the Earth has the carrying capacity for about 1 1/2 - 2 billion people. Currently, we are near 8 billion people adding about 130 million additional people each year racing to 9.8 billion by or before 2050. (About 50 million people a year normally die.)
We are way over sustainable population levels already yet, no government other than China seems willing to set a one child per couple policy! Future and current generations will suffer unthinkable catastrophes because, as humanity, we failed to manage the size of our global population to match the carrying capacity of our global environment and the Earth's available resources.
Please note that as the global population continues to rise, the additional population serves to further amplify and multiply the most harmful consequences of almost all the 12 other global challenges and consequences listed on this page.) One could easily say that overpopulation and its inherent over-consumption beyond our carrying capacity is also a major cause behind today's global warming emergency. (Please click this carrying capacity link to learn more about why this rapidly rising overpopulation challenge is so dangerous.)
For a candid and balanced article on the immense suffering caused by our overpopulation global challenge, please see this article, Population, the Great Knee-Jerker: A Holistic Survey and Plea to Reduce Suffering.
Global Challenge 4: Over-consumption causing ever-rising global resource depletion (aka overshoot) caused by overpopulation, toxic pollution of water, lands, and air, crop failures, overfishing, topsoil loss, resource distribution injustice, and the massive “overconsumption and waste” of the Earth's finite resources. Global resource depletion will significantly increase food shortages and cause soaring food prices leading to more starvation and mass migrations. For example, the following are estimates of when only a few of our critical global resources will be depleted; freshwater 12 years (2032), fish stocks almost totally gone by 2050, adequate topsoil for crop growing gone by 2070. (See this page to see 90 percent of fish stock already overfished and to see charts on how this loss will throw much of the world into starvation.)
Of particular concern is the depletion of phosphorous critically needed for crop fertilizers. Adequate access to this could run out in as little as 35-45 years.
If you still do not believe that massive resource depletion and overshoot is a huge soon-arriving problem? Watch this fantastic resource overshoot video with great graphics and global resource depletion amounts and time frames in simple illustrations by Hugh Montgomery, a noted English professor. (We strongly recommend you watch this video for all of the food and non-food resources that are in an accelerating depletion peril. [Forward the video to the 10 minutes and 30-second mark to begin watching Professor Hugh Montgomery's compelling graphic presentation.])
There are also many other critical mineral and non-mineral resources that will also run out soon, click here for more about these.
Global Challenge 5: escalating pollution of lands, air, and waters. Ongoing and accelerating toxic pollution kills crops, fish stocks, and poisons our air, water, and soil creating and accelerating all types of global health, social, and economic problems. (Ocean heating and ocean acidification from carbon from global warming will eventually kill off much of the oceans' oxygen-producing plankton. These plankton are responsible for as much as 50% of all oxygen produced on the planet.)
Global Challenge 6: loss of biodiversity, we are having more plants and animals go extinct than at any other time in human history. This is due to an ongoing and accelerating loss of natural habitat due to overpopulation, global warming, overuse, pollution, etc. (Leading Stanford University biologists, who were first to reveal that we are already experiencing the sixth mass extinction on Earth, released new research this week showing species extinctions are accelerating in an unprecedented manner, which may be another tipping point for the collapse of human civilization.)
Global Challenge 7: growing economic inequality, social and racial injustice, hunger, and poverty. Today less than 1% of the world's population owns more than 50% of all wealth. Over for the last several decades, this ownership percentage continues to grow in favor of the wealthy.
Growing economic inequality and poverty often increase food shortages and often cause food prices to soar leading once again to mass starvation and mass migrations. This year (2020,) 130 million people are lacking adequate food and could starve to death. COVID-19's effect on the world economy could double that number of the next few years. Over the following decades, global warming consequences will raise that number into the hundreds of millions eventually rising well past a billion.)
Global Challenge 8: Escalating local, regional, and international criminality, conflicts, terrorism, and war. Expect these population-destabilizing security and stability threats to increase in their intensity, frequency, and scale. This threat escalation will occur from the urban and rural local levels to regional and international levels.
Vastly increased levels of survival-driven criminality, conflicts, terrorism, and war will be due to the world experiencing almost all of the global challenges on this page getting steadily worse. Global nuclear war or widespread chemical or biological war is also a real and escalating threat as most of the global challenges on this page worsen. Nations with nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons will compete to the death for the few global warming safer lands or the dwindling food and other resources.
Global Challenge 9: Mass migrations, political and economic instability, increasing terrorism, conflicts, and war plus global warming and many of the other listed global challenges on this page will both create and expand sudden, massive migrations of millions then billions of desperate refugees and climagees. During this phase, as most of the listed global challenges on this page intensify, various stronger governments will order precautionary evacuations of selected individuals and groups to limit casualties and losses from their most vulnerable areas. Before 2030-2035 because of global warming alone, the world will see hundreds of millions of climagees (climate refugees.)
Global Challenge 10: New COVID-19 like pandemics as well as other new and older disease epidemics that will likely flare up every decade. This will in part be due to global warming melting of the permafrost, loss of natural animal habitat, eating more wild animals, overcrowding, less resilient health systems, mass migrations, wars and conflicts, and many of the other challenges and consequences listed on this page.
Additionally, new and older disease epidemics will occur more frequently and be more severe because of the abuse of antibiotics in animal product production. This abuse has resulted in bacteria that are now resistant to every known type of antibiotic. Worse yet, because of accelerating global warming, more COVID-19 type global pandemics could come as often as every decade. The AIDS virus became widespread in the late 1970s, the SARS virus in 2003, the MERS virus in 2012, and the Ebola virus in 2013. Click here for more about how escalating global warming may begin producing COVID-19 like pandemics every decade.
Global Challenge 11: increasing political instability and collapsing governments. Fueled by existing internal and external conflicts, soaring deficits, and the intensifying global challenges listed on this page, poorly managed nations with weak economies and low existing resilience will fall first. In 2020 we already see numerous countries on the verge of economic or political collapse. As the increased stresses of these listed global challenges continue to increase upon all nations, stronger nations will also steadily collapse. And finally, what is the most dangerous challenge and collapse accelerator of all.
The other non-global warming challenges to our global society that will both interact with each other and likely continue to worsen in this phase of the Climageddon Scenario are the same as above. When you mix the accelerating global warming threat multiplier in with the above expanding global challenges you create for yourself a converging cascade of endless catastrophes.
Some reasons why most of our above critical global challenges have not been solved or will be nearly impossible to fix
The following are not all of the reasons that it is highly unlikely that we will be able to resolve the above global challenges. They are only several of the most important and overarching reasons:
Reason 1: Our failure to evolve effective global governance with the needed legislative, judicial, and enforceable executive powers to solve all of the global challenges that cross national borders. If you think about it deeply, you will discover that this critical evolutionary failure of not having yet developed effective global governance is a core structural cause of why most of the above global challenges have not been resolved, and they continue to worsen.
Even though it looks like someone manages the well-being of the planet as a whole from the United Nations or our international treaties, this is an illusion! No one governing body is effectively or responsibly driving the global "car," and it is speeding toward a cliff without a driver.
Reason 2: Wealthy vested interests have compromised the effectiveness of our national governments. More often than not, our national government's decisions are not based on the general population's long-term wellbeing. They are based on increasing the short-term financial and power advantages of a very few ultra-wealthy individuals and corporations funding politicians openly or secretly. Consequently, decisions favoring the interests of the privileged ultra-wealthy most often harm the general wellbeing of the many.
Reason 3: We have hunter/gatherer's brains developed before the stone age, trying to manage the twenty-first century highly complex, self-organizing global systems. The physical structure of our minds has not advanced in over a million years. Our biological brains were developed in response to the simple stone-age demands of hunting and gathering food.
Our stone age brain structure cannot sufficiently understand or do all of the complex data, analyses, and calculations needed to manage complex adaptable systems like the global climate, the global economy, the global environment, and balancing and managing international and global politics without endless war and conflicts.
The average planetary IQ is only about 100. Even genius-level individuals (IQ 140 and up) cannot stay up with the ever-increasing amounts of new information and ever-increasing technical and other global system complexities. To cope, our stone-age brains automatically revert to behaviors based on emotions, self-interest, and the comfort of superstitions. Consequently, we regularly do not understand or see the most severe problems within the various global systems until it is too late to avoid the worst possible catastrophes, i.e., the global warming extinction emergency and the ongoing collapse of global civilization. (Both of which are occurring because of either the convergence or the amplification of the global challenges listed above.)
Reason 4: Most of our current leaders have both stone-age minds and stone-age leadership qualities.
We are still evolving members of the ape family. We proudly try to distance ourselves from our ape animal roots by calling ourselves, humans. Despite our cultures continually trying to make us unaware of being evolving animals, we are all still mostly subject to our ancient biological animal drives, and so too it is with our current leaders.
Most of our current leaders had to have a high degree of stone-age alpha male qualities, or they would have never become leaders in their area. Those stone-age alpha leadership qualities are used to command the pack with fear of violence, actual violence, and deceit. They most often use these and other aggressive intimidation tactics for maintaining their power, privilege, and self-interest.
Stone age alphas will give excellent lip service to the common goals or the greater good of all, but they are always cleverly protecting and forwarding their own interests or adding to their assets, most often, at the expense of those they lead.
Unless society can remove these unevolved stone-age alphas from group leadership positions, it will continue to have the world we have now, and it will be far more difficult fixing it.
This deficient stone-age leadership problem means societies worldwide will soon need to establish minimum levels for their leaders' cognitive, social/emotional, and moral developmental levels. To manage the complexity and vast amounts of modern society information, our societies should also set minimum educational and intelligence levels for all critical leaders. We also need to ensure our leaders are well versed in scientific falsification methodology, basic logic, systems thinking, ethics, and dialectical meta-systemic thinking (Otto Laske.)
Not only should there be minimal developmental and skill levels set for all critical leadership positions, but there also should be recommended levels for cognitive, social-emotional, and moral development, education, and intelligence. This way the population can make better choices about who to elect or choose for their leaders for critical positions. (Luckily, science has already laid out the highest levels of human cognitive, social-emotional, and moral development in the works of Abraham Maslow, Claire Graves, Robert Kegan, Lawrence Kohlberg, and Otto Laske.
Today's world does not need more aggressive, self-centered, and genetically confident stone-age alpha leaders. We need more of the new and evolved alpha leaders.
To successfully solve the world's current challenges, societies must eventually remove all stone-age alpha leaders from its most crucial power positions. It must replace them with the best-educated, smartest, and most cognitively, social-emotionally and morally developed new alpha leaders.
With these highly-evolved new alpha leaders, we will have the leaders needed for today's complex world. They will be the leaders genuinely dedicated to using their skills and gifts to resolve our current problems in ways that truly improve the collective's overall wellbeing.
For more about dialectical meta systemic thinking, click here.
Reason 5: Fundamental Evolutionary Flaws in Human Language
Human language is produced in the brain in layers. Human language is initially learned, in infancy, based on memorized sound patterns. The patterns are associated, not with logic, but with emotion. The next brain level, again in early childhood, groups sound patterns of simple words and simple-logical phrases. These are referred to as Single Sentence Logic (SSL). These two processes, each with their own brain layer, work very fast. This fast response provides a substantial survival advantage in a hunter-gatherer environment.
It is not until much later in a child's development that the ability to handle intricate word patterns like paragraphs, pages, books, and libraries, on a logical basis, is formed in additional separate layers. The problem is, this brain structure leads to significant difficulties for complex modern communications. It takes a relatively long time interval to process complex issues.
Many private, corporate, and governmental forces want to manipulate people. Using quickly presented, short "sound bites," filled with emotional "trigger" words, they can effectively saturate the fast layers, blocking higher levels of thinking in most people. As social complexity explodes, most people's ability to understand and resolve complex problems is entirely overwhelmed by the media's bombardment with very rapid emotional triggers.
Reason 6: The explosion of technology and complexity is not compatible with how human brains evolved
The explosion of technology has also introduced extreme complexity into how we use tools and instruments, and into all commercial and social interactions! For all the technical elements to work together, very complex sets of rules and information are required. We would have to memorize many thousands of pages of detailed directions. To fully engage in all our commercial and social interactions, we would also have to memorize many thousands of pages of law books, and read and remember all the words in every contract and agreement we sign. This high complexity also means actions and decisions must be made much faster. Timing becomes critical, and every piece of technology-dependent information must be precise. There isn't time to check into the reference material. Human brains can't do even a small fraction of this. So, people don't do it. They make up their own "workarounds" (i.e., superstitions), which, of course, are not compatible with anyone else's. The result is, that interactions with both machines and other people constantly don't work the way we expect!
Reason 7: Evolved human psychology drives individuals toward self-centered individual survival
Humans cannot escape the numerous strong survival drives that have been hard-wired into them over millions of years of vertebrate evolution.
Because of the rapidness of messaging, we can't take the time to research and understand complex issues or correctly operate the equipment. To "cope," the human brain invents "shortcuts" - i.e., "superstitions" about what has been said or how things work. Because of the continual breakdown of equipment and interpersonal interactions and the rapid emotional media assault of messages, individuals believe they are being assaulted. The assaults are interpreted as "threats" by our evolved self-centered personal defenses for survival. They are direct attacks on our inherent concepts of individual freedom. Our "fight or flight" defenses evolved to deal with "tangible" adversaries. Our brain uses the invented superstitions to assign "blame" for their pain. The blame must have a "name"! This complexity and flawed language vs. freedom dichotomy directly explains the current extreme polarization of social groups, governments, and political beliefs.
Ironically, before science broke open our vast understanding of nature, the forces of nature, in the form of demons, were the most common culprits. With such thinking largely discredited, our made-up superstitions are now more often aimed at each other! These "selfish gene" drives lead to social conflict and violence. When confronted with this, society's response has gone from simple admonishment to putting people in prison or even putting them to death. The problem is, these drives run so deep, even this entire range of responses has failed. The results have been 12,000+ years of war and conflict. To reach a peaceful, sustainable future, radically new approaches are needed for managing the self-interest vs. community-interest conflict. A patchwork of fixes has not worked and will not work.
Reason 8: Our stone-age impaired brains are also being attacked and compromised by 4th generation mind control technology enabled by supercomputers, advanced algorithms, artificial intelligence (AI) software, and today's social media and search platforms. This social media-enabled mind control attack of hidden manipulation is not only enhancing tensions and polarizing people worldwide. It is also causing people to no longer be able to reason out or understand what is true or fake.
This mind control is dangerous because, without the ability to see and know truth from falsehood independently, the world will continue making terrible decisions on our many global challenges. Social media fake news propagation is also super-charging racial, ethnic, religious, and national political tensions worldwide to make matters worse. This super-charging effect will eventually and most certainly produce more racial, ethnic, religious, and national conflicts, maybe even new race, ethnic, religious, and national wars.
Before we describe the basics of 4th generation mind control, we strongly recommend first watching the shocking Netflix documentary called The Social Dilemma. It will set the necessary foundation for you to understand the invisible tactics used and to know why fourth-generation mind control is already another severe and vast problem inhibiting our ability to solve our current global challenges. Additionally, the everyday use of fourth-generation mind control by social media companies is not only inhibiting our ability to think and solve our global challenges; it is also significantly accelerating the worse consequences of those challenges.
In this new documentary, you will hear top executives from Silicon Valley's most prominent social media companies telling you the world is in new grave danger, and that we must regulate and remove this danger immediately. They also will warn you that AI and supercomputers have twisted social media into a new form of ultra-sophisticated, hidden nano-manipulation whose fundamental purpose is to get you to change your opinions, beliefs, and sense of identity to ultimately change your behavior without either your awareness or conscious consent.
Once you have viewed the Netflix documentary called The Social Dilemma, you are ready to continue with this brief explanation of the four generations of mind control:
a. First-generation mild control is almost as old as humanity. It appeared in ancient Egyptian and other cults where a member was put through many highly restrictive, cathartic, and stressful experiences. This process would often also involve the use of drugs and a fake death and a "miraculous drugged "rebirth from the "death" experience. The reborn individual would then assume the cult's new identity because the cult had saved their lives.
The subject usually also became a fanatical true believer. First-generation mind control was time-consuming and labor-intensive. Think of it as a one-by-one assembly line. (For more, see the initiation rites of Hashish Assassins.)
b. Second-generation mild control was advanced in the 1950s when modern psychology tactics were integrated with many ancient first-generation cult tactics. The Russians, Koreans, and the Chinese all used second-generation tactics in their Gulags and though-reform prison camps on political dissidents. The Koreans made second-generation mind control effectiveness famous when the captured US Air Force pilots and used it so effectively that the pilots went on International TV and denounced America and the American way of life.
Second-generation mind control was more refined and also less time-consuming. Numerous handlers were still needed in the prison camps to execute the program to apply and maintain continuous stress on the subject until they broke. Think of an assembly line that could produce more cost-effective mind control victims whose opinions, beliefs, and identities had been radically changed. (For more, search the descriptions of what was done in Korea to downed US pilots during the Korean war.
c. Third-generation mild control was advanced in the 1960s by cults like Scientology, the Moonies, and Hare Krishna. Here coercive influence tactics of modern psychology were integrated with many of the ancient first-generation cult tactics. Unlike the Russians, Korean, and the Chinese Gulags and their use of thought-reform prison camps, these modern cults had refined the mind control tactics to newer micro-influence levels no longer requiring physical constraint or physical abuse.
Third-generation mind control was less time-consuming and labor-intensive because it could be done not one-by-one, like in earlier mind control generations, but on a whole group of people at the same time. This group application was achieved by controlling almost every area of their existence by the cult. (What they wore, ate, thought, did, etc.)
Stress was still applied continuously but more skillfully, secretively, and gradually in micro-steps. Think of a faster, better coercive influence group assembly line, which also could produce more cost-effective mind control victims whose opinions, beliefs, and identity had been radically changed more efficiently and faster. (If you read George Orwell's 1984, you will have a good idea of what life was like inside these third-generation mind-control cults. For more, search for what was done to victims of the cults mentioned above in the many lawsuits filed against them.)
d. Fourth-generation mild control began not long after the creation of social media, and Silicon Valley launched the new search platforms. Fourth-generation mind control makes a very significant big jump from an individual or group application to mass application. No longer did one have to be imprisoned or even be in a high-control, high-restriction cult to be the victim of this new hidden and even more dangerous mind control.
Fourth-generation mind control uses supercomputers, artificial intelligence, complex algorithms, the psychology of influence and behavioral change, tightly controlled echo chambers, and some earlier generation deceit and hidden influence tactics. Fourth-generation mind control can create a meaningful and continuous influence over the subject in gradual nano-steps. These nano-steps make it even easier to change the subject's opinions, beliefs, and even their core sense of who they are (their identity), and they have no idea this is even being done.
Fourth-generation mind control is the least time-consuming and labor-intensive because it is done mostly by machines. It is being done to billions of people simultaneously, not just the small groups as in third-generation mind control. Stress is still applied continuously but far skillfully, secretively, and more gradually than in any other generation.
Think of a faster, better mass production assembly line that can more cost-effectively produce billions of mind control victims over the next few decades. Think of it as the fastest, most invisible, and advanced technology of modern civilization being used against our stone-age brains. Yes, our stone-age brains will never have a chance unless we regulate and ban them from being used on our children or manipulating every person now using social media. (For more, watch the Social Dilemma documentary on NetFlix. In clear and precise ways, it will show you the many subtle and invisible ways that today's social media is using fourth-generation mind control to invisibly change your opinions, beliefs, identity, and behavior without your awareness or consent.
Reason 9: Our current form of democracy has reached its limits.
"Democracy," or more specifically, "Athenian Democracy" in the form of a Republic, as it is now implemented worldwide, is incompatible with the technology-produced conditions of modern society. Ancient Athens had a small, sparse population, simple technology, and relatively similar self-sufficient farmers. Their culture was dominated by one national religion and very homogeneous practices. This simple "social environment" continued well into the 18th century. It allowed the concept of "majority voting" to work and provide most people with an "acceptable" outcome. ALL these factors have now changed.
We now have huge populations with hundreds of interspersed beliefs and cultures that are radically different. A hyper-specialized workforce breaks down the prevailing "agricultural culture" that bonded most people. Additionally, complex, hyper-integrated new technologies force all of these cultures to adopt narrow approaches for communication and interaction unfamiliar to all of them. All of the alternate forms of democracy currently in use or being discussed rely on the limiting singular "winner" outcome of "majority voting" to determine social action. In societies with hundreds of competing cultures, no "singular result" can come anywhere near close to providing most people with an acceptable result. The result is, that most people "feel" the result of any government decision, which always has many provisions that don't address their needs, as a "government tyranny" against them. The product is population unrest and distrust or hate of government around the world.
In ancient Athens, with a population under 100,000, "congresses" of as many as 4,000 citizens were assembled as "representatives". These were predominantly farmers, making decisions for farmers. Even so, a very sophisticated machine was built to ensure that every representative was selected without bias or allegiance to a social group!
Today, a few hundred people (politicians) are chosen to represent hundreds of millions of citizens, each with very different job skills, social situations, educational backgrounds, etc. The requirements for preventing bias or allegiance, which the Athenians in 500BC already understood, was a cornerstone for democracy to work and have been thrown to the wind. So, not only is the majority wins "singular result" a major flaw, the process that actively steers representatives into the hands of political parties and industrial "lobbying" completely severs any logical connection between current "democracies" and the original implementation of that term. By design, contemporary "democracies" can only be hotbeds for corruption and government failure. "Democracy" must now evolve to new forms that solve all the 8 problems listed above if we are ever to solve our critical global challenges (described above.)
What happens when you mix everything above together in Phase 1?
When you are thinking about the interacting collective and individual impacts of the above, you must also consider their direct and indirect impacts upon human social, economic and political systems and the tipping points within those unique human systems. For example, as we continue to experience more of the multiplying, amplifying, and magnifying consequences mentioned above that will also increase in frequency, severity, and scale, we will also begin to experience more random human system crashes and collapses which have previously occurred when severe stresses arise within our social, economic and political human systems. This will then eventually push these human systems ever closer toward or over their own internal tipping points.
For example, as crops fail from Arctic Sea ice loss, droughts, rain bombs, extreme storms, cold spells, and extreme temperatures, food prices will skyrocket. Populations will eventually riot before they starve to death and then as more people die or struggle not to die, law and order will break down. Eventually, the weaker countries will collapse under the ever-increasing weight of these rising internal economic political, and social climate-related catastrophes and resource conflicts.
What also will begin to happen as we leave Phase 1 and enter Phase 2 is that nuclear reactors, toxic chemical manufacturing plants, and any chemical or biological weapons stockpiles in the weakest nations will become more vulnerable to accidental meltdown, release or theft as the governments of weaker nations no longer have the resources or manpower to keep these critical sites secure and operational.
As the world's weakest nations collapse from the mounting global warming, our other global challenges, they will create more and more desperate climagees (climate refugees in the millions.) As this rising migration seeks to enter the stronger and safer nations, the stronger nations will also begin to experience local and regional breakdowns in law and order as they experience greater and greater stresses upon their own economic, social, and political systems as they too simultaneously struggle with most of the same consequences.
Here is An Illustrated Quick Overview of the Climageddon Climate Change and Global Warming Extinction Scenario Processes
At this point, an illustration will help simplify the many things you have just read. The Climageddon extinction scenario process illustrated below will help you understand global warming's many levels of processes and interactions as a holistic gestalt.
A gestalt in holism is the idea that the properties and processes of natural systems and subsystems should also be viewed as having synergetic processes and as an interconnected and unified whole, not simply as collections of, or summations of, separate and individual non-inter-dependent or inter-connected parts or actions.
Review the following Climageddon Scenario illustration starting from the bottom up! Starting from the bottom, this illustration reflects the unfolding natural progression of ever-worsening and interacting consequences and tipping point processes that will occur as global warming continues to escalate pushing us toward our extinction.
The top of the illustration below shows you the later phase Climageddon Scenario consequences. The bottom shows you the earlier consequences. For now just get a general idea of all the global warming consequences, tipping points, and human system factors will be interacting and colliding as well as amplifying and multiplying each other as the Climageddon extinction scenario unfolds in phases and waves. (Full explanations of each tipping point and consequence are found here, the 11 key global warming tipping points and, here the 20 worst global warming consequences.)
Remember to review this illustration from the bottom up beginning with the heating of global warming escalating!
About the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown as a whole system
As you can see from the illustration above, the Climageddon Scenario is far more than just a summary listing of the individual global warming consequences and tipping points. In the above illustrated intertwined unfolding phases and interactions, it becomes easier to see the continually heat-intensified individual consequences and tipping points churning into something far more dangerous than just the individual summation of these things.
Collectively, all of these moving consequences and interactions of our global warming emergency synergize with each other at various levels and accelerate the intensity and speed of the more deadly later stages of the Climageddon extinction scenario. When you begin to see the Climageddon extinction scenario model as an integrated climate, human, and biological super-system, you will discover:
- new critical relationships and processes occurring between the climate, human, and biological systems,
- new qualifying and conditioning climate, human, and biological contexts, and finally,
- new phase-by-phase interactions and magnifying transformations of the interconnected and interdependent climate, human, and biological system consequences that will both suddenly and dramatically worsen our lives.
To help you get this "big picture" synergetic consequence interaction perspective, you will find many illustrations like the one above showing the major tipping points and other global warming consequences colliding with our financial, social, and political systems.
"Because of its, scores of variables, complexity, and constantly evolving and emerging new tipping points and synergies, one of the hardest things to grasp about the Climageddon extinction prediction model is that it is a unique viewing gestalt for our probable future relating to almost every level of our current existence." Lawrence Wollersheim
Now that you have learned about Phase 1 of the Climageddon Scenario, it is time to learn about assigning risk levels to every Climageddon phase.
How to assign risk evaluation levels to each the 6 phases of the Climageddon extinction scenario
To help you put into perspective the serious implications of the consequences unfolding at each level of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario, we use three recognized risk, threat, and hazard alert scales.
Those three risk evaluation scales are:
1. The Torino Impact Hazard 0-10 Scale was used to quantify the many risks and hazards of asteroids of different sizes hitting the earth.
2. The DEFCON 5-1 levels used by the U.S. government and military regarding preparedness for nuclear or conventional war. And,
3. The current US Homeland Security Advisory System.
Here are the three risk analyses and how they are used to rate the six phases of the Climageddon Scenario:
1. The Torino Impact Hazard 0-10 Scale was used to quantify the many risks and hazards of asteroids of different sizes hitting the earth. (The Torino Scale goes from 0 to 10, where a 0 rating is no hazard or threat and a 10 is “a collision is certain, capable of causing a global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean.”)
There is a good reason to use the Torino Impact Hazard Scale with the Climageddon Scenario. Depending upon what phase of the scenario we enter, how we adapt to the threat may be uncannily similar to how we might adapt to survive impacts of ever-increasing asteroid sizes hitting the earth in repeated waves.
For example, if we knew well in advance that a small, survivable asteroid would hit the earth, using the Torino scale threat level 3 advisories could provide enough time to relocate almost everyone from the local hazardous area of impact. If a larger but still survivable asteroid were to hit, once again using the Torino scale threat level 4 advisory, we could have time to relocate almost everyone from the larger regional area of impact.
Similar to these asteroid impact scenarios, as the escalating global warming emergency continues through the 6 Climageddon Scenario phases, it will also eventually force us to relocate first millions, then billions of people. We will relocate them first locally, then regionally, nationally, and eventually internationally to the far north or far south. But, we may be able to move only as much of the total human population as can survive in the poorer soils and shorter growing seasons of the northernmost and southernmost countries of the world (above the 45th parallel north to Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, Alaska, Iceland, and Greenland, etc), and also below the 45th parallel south like some areas on the south island of New Zealand or at the tip of South America.
2. The DEFCON 5-1 levels used by the U.S. government and military regarding preparedness for nuclear or conventional war. (The DEFCON rating system goes from 5 to 1. DEFCON 5 is normal peacetime military readiness, and 1 is the highest military alert, such as imminent nuclear war. As the climate continues to destabilize, at some point the nations of the world will have to declare emergency regulations and martial law to deal with the escalating crisis and the internal and external instability it creates. Using this scale is appropriate because if left unchecked, global warming will parallel and eventually exceed the destructiveness of all non-nuclear world wars.)
3. The current US Homeland Security Advisory System. (The Homeland Security Advisory System is a color-coded terrorism threat advisory scale. The different levels trigger specific actions by federal agencies and state and local governments, and they affect the level of security at some airports and other public facilities. Although this is a terrorist threat risk system, it is also useful for climate crises. In the mid-to-late phases of the Climageddon Scenario, as our political, economic, and social systems break down, the nations of the world will react similarly to how they would react to a high-level terrorist threat or an actual attack. Martial law and other restrictive emergency measures with curfews, new regulations, loss of civil rights, and normal legal protections will be enacted.)
Phase 1 Risk and threat ratings:
As described earlier, for each Climageddon phase, three different risk ratings are provided. Here are the risk ratings for phase 1:
Phase 1 Torino impact rating:
Torino rating 8: The threat is highly certain for localized and regional destruction. Attention by public and governmental contingency planning is merited if the events are less than 3 decades away. Click here and go to the section of the page called Action Plan Section 2 near the bottom of the page to learn what the governments must start doing immediately.
Phase 1 US military DEFCON rating:
DEFCON 4, described as increased intelligence gathering and security measures.
Phase 1 US Homeland Security risk rating:
Orange: High risk.
The essential positive perspective on the above disruptive global warming and climate change news
Despite the many types of challenging global warming consequences and past fossil fuel reduction mistakes that we now face, we can still learn from their feedback, and we can adapt and evolve to make life as good and as happy as is possible. No matter how severe the coming global warming consequences might become, if we wisely play the remaining cards that we have been dealt with, we can still achieve the best remaining possible outcomes.
We can yet make a significant difference to reduce global fossil fuel use to stabilize and save the future of humanity by executing a comprehensive reduction and survival plan like the Job One for Humanity global warming action plan.
We can still maintain the perseverance needed to succeed in this monumental task by regularly reviewing the many benefits which will unfold as we work successfully on this together. (Click here to review those benefits.)
We can persevere through this time of emergency. We just need to remember that our greatest challenges are also the seeds of our greatest opportunities.
We are engaged in nothing less than the most critical and meaningful evolutionary opportunity, challenge, and adventure in human history! It is our last opportunity to slow down the mass human extinction threat by getting close to these 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Only reaching these targets will fully remove the near-total extinction threat. In reaching these targets, we also significantly improve many of the world's other 12 major challenges.
Get started today on the Job One for Humanity global warming reduction and survival plan. Help save and salvage as much of humanity and our beautiful civilization as is possible.
You have finished Phase 1 of the Climageddon Scenario. There are 5 more well-illustrated and soon-arriving Climageddon Scenario phases to review where, unfortunately, things get even worse as global warming worsens.
Because the Climageddon Scenario is already unfolding, please do not forget that if we do reach the last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by plus or minus 5 percent, we will avoid the worst consequences of the Climageddon Scenario and mass extinction! Life over the millennia always seems to find a way to solve its previous mass extinction challenges!
To help prevent the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario from unfolding there exists a deadline-prioritized, effective action plan to ensure we do not trigger the later mass extinction phases. Click here for a brief overview of this plan.
Click here to see where we are today on the Climate Change and Global Warming Doomsday Clock.
If you get discouraged reading the many consequences of the Climageddon Scenario, please go to this Surprise Benefits of Global Warming page, which is the most-read page on our website.
The July 2020 Special Update on changing preparation and adaption timeframes for the global warming emergency: Please click here and go to our member's area critical timeframe update on these issues as soon as possible. This update is vital if you want to prepare your family or business for what is now unavoidable!
Click here for the Climageddon Scenario Phase 2, beginning as soon as 2032-2050
The information and illustrations of the detailed consequences, costs, and timetables for phase 2, as well as for each of the other 4 Climageddon Scenario, phases are contained on this next page.
This next page is normally only found in our member's only section, which we have made temporarily viewable to the general public. Much of the recently updated consequences, costs, and timetable information that you are reading in the 6 phases are not found in the Climageddon book.
If the consequence, costs, and timetable link above is not working in the paragraph above, use the following to get to this additional Climageddon Scenario phase 2-6 information:
If you are a member and you are logged in, click the Members link on the top menu bar on the far right side of the page. Then click the link called Climageddon Scenario Consequence Timetables.
If you are not already a member, you also can see this critical information and the rest of this Climagageddon Scenario document by becoming a member by clicking here.)
Our Members Only section of the website contains much information like the following. We recommend that you click Members link at the top of the page and see what else is available.
Please keep in mind that the global warming disaster costs in the chart above are only for single disasters during phases 1-4. In phase 5 you see the total cost to the world.
Please send this article to politicians and social media all over the world. Ask your politicians what they are doing to prevent the coming mass extinction of most of humanity by mid-century?
Ask them why they are not adequately managing the greatest threat multiplier and global problem amplifier of the 21st century by enacting the governmental steps described here!
(This page and all other Climageddon-related pages are derived substantially from the 2016 book, Climageddon, The Global Warming Emergency and How to Survive It. It has been updated with new climate research since 2016 as applicable. Climageddon is Available on Amazon.)
Defining the Climate Change and Global Warming Emergency
Click here first to read the ten most critical climate change facts as of 2.2.2023.
If you are curious after reading the above link, learn more about why 60+ years of fossil fuel reduction efforts have failed below?
In spite of 60+ years of warnings by credible scientists and the work of the environmental movement, plus a preponderance of collaborating scientific evidence, as well as numerous conferences and previous treaties, the carbon dioxide and methane pollution of our atmosphere, has not stopped, slowed, or even leveled off. On the contrary, it is getting worse faster than ever before!
As you can see, we are not doing very well.
Leading climate scientists like James Hansen, who originally warned us about the global warming danger 40 years ago, say we would remain safe if carbon in the atmosphere did not go over 350 parts per million (ppm). As of July 2021 we are at about carbon 420 ppm and increasing at about 3 ppm per year in a near exponential progression.
When you combine the heating effect of carbon with the other greenhouse gases, it is called the CO2e ppm rating. CO2e, or carbon dioxide equivalent. CO2e is a standard unit for measuring all greenhouse gases in terms of the amount of warming they create compared to CO2.carbon footprints.
When you include atmospheric methane and the other greenhouse gas pollutants, our current adjusted CO2e rating has already risen to a shocking level beyond 430 ppmv of CO2e! Worse yet, we will be at carbon 450 ppm in 10 years or less when we include atmospheric methane in our calculations.
To put this in a time-lapse perspective, from 1850 to about 1950, the increase in carbon pollution was steady at about 1 ppm per year. From 1950 to 2000, the increase rose to 2 ppm per year, and now in its current exponential curve, it is at about 3 ppm per year and rising rapidly toward 3-4 ppm per year. If carbon continues to rise in this exponential, nonlinear way, virtually unchecked by our ineffective previous actions, the increase could easily reach a level of 4-5 ppm per year by 2025.
As you can see below, carbon has been rising since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in England.
Image via Stephen Stoft at zfacts.com
According to James Hansen, a carbon 450 ppm level would eventually correspond and develop into an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century and the end of human civilization as we’ve come to know it. Based on carbon ppm levels already in the system and reaching the 450 mark, this also means at least another 2.7° Celsius (4.9° Fahrenheit) global temperature increase beyond where we are now is the eventual and inescapable future reality.
This 2.7° Celsius would also be the most realistic minimal temperature increase to project as part of any future planning over the next 10-30 years. Bear in mind that even this scenario applies only if everything goes perfectly and we cross no additional global warming tipping points.
Unfortunately, it is already certain that because of our ongoing denial and delay in addressing escalating global warming, atmospheric carbon in parts per million will most likely continue to rapidly rise beyond the carbon 450-550 ppm total, which translates to a 3° to 4° plus Celsius increase (5.4° to 7.2°+ Fahrenheit) up to as much as a 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) increase in average global temperature. (A 4° Celsius increase [7.2° Fahrenheit] in average global temperature would become “Hell on earth” as Mark Lynas, author of Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, has stated. Additionally, anything at or above a 4°Celcius increase in average global temperature would be incompatible with an organized global society and would be beyond adaptation!)
Hansen’s projections for “ending human civilization as we know it” is not the same as mass human extinction (most of humanity dying by mid-century,) as we approach carbon 500 ppm and carbon 600 ppm which turn into the 5° or 6° Celsius (10.8° to about 12° Fahrenheit) temperature levels. In Hansen’s 6° Celsius rise coming from eventually crossing the carbon 450 ppm mark, what would be considered normal, stable, comfortable, or predictable daily life in developed nations will become severely impaired and dysfunctional, to say the least.
In undeveloped nations, there will be a high and consistent level of chaos and breakdown that will rapidly render most of these nations politically and economically unsustainable. As it is already occurring, the chaos of existing less-developed nations destabilized by factors such as war and the global warming extinction emergency will then affect the more developed and stable nations far beyond just the current massive migrations of climagees escaping the suffering and heat.
In spite of all the media PR, 21 United Nations climate conferences, endless warnings from credible scientists over the last 30 + years, and national reduction pledges and treaties, things are worsening in a nearly exponential progression (2,4,8,16, etc.). There is no way to deny we are not only losing the escalating global warming battle, and we are losing it at a progressively faster rate!
Instead of enacting the needed changes when they were far easier, more gradual, and far less costly, we must now take radical, painful, and costly tough medicine if we are going to save the future. The changes that would have been merely inconvenient 35 years ago will now become nearly unbearable.
We are not receiving adequate accurate facts about how bad global warming is now, or how bad it will REALLY become. The heavily lobbied global media decline to alarm us to the real dangers in order to allow the fossil fuel industry to continue business as usual. Click here to see how bad we are actually doing in reducing fossil fuel use globally.
Current atmospheric fossil fuel burning-related carbon ppm values are now at 420 ppm. This is higher than at any other time in the last 1 million years (possibly higher than at any time in the last 25 million years). This new carbon pollution record represents an increase of 85 carbon ppm in the 55 years since David Keeling began making his revolutionary atmospheric carbon pollution measurements at Mauna Loa. (See graphs in this and previous chapters).
Carbon pollution accumulating in the atmosphere has been increasing even faster over the last few decades. It is now nearly certain that if we refuse to take immediate, effective measures to resolve global warming, future increases will happen at even faster rates.
Global average temperatures have the potential to rise far faster than what we normally experience. For example, about 9600 BC, in the Boreal climatic phase, global temperatures rose 7° C (12.6° F) in less than a decade, pushing the ice sheets into rapid collapse and sending sea levels soaring.
Our decades long inability to control the climate change and global warming emergency is due in part to:
The lack of national and international verifiable and enforceable international laws that would make continued large-scale carbon and methane pollution of the atmosphere a strongly punished activity or crime.
The physical time lags in developing and deploying the infrastructure needed for the new green energy technologies. As we are progressing now, it will likely take another 100 plus years.
Click here to see more key reasons for what has caused our current out of meaningful control global warming extinction emergency for at least the next 30-50 years.
But, if everyone on the planet and every government simultaneously agreed to scale up green energy generation immediately and there were no budgetary or resource restrictions in completing this life-critical project, it would still take many many decades to put that infrastructure in place.
If escalating global warming and its consequent climate destabilization proceed to the levels currently being predicted, it will eventually cost the global society hundreds of trillions of dollars in crisis recovery, as well as soaring insurance rates, massive real estate losses and depreciation, and massive coastal and other infrastructure losses, in addition to the vast amount of human suffering and death.
Right now, most nations are struggling with debt and their economies are in trouble with anemic annual growth. How will many of these nations, particularly the weakest ones, remain politically or financially viable, stable, or even continue to exist if another 5% or more of their total GDP (the Stern Review) is drained off each year into the continually escalating costs of global warming-caused climate destabilization? Current estimates from a book called Climate Shock project all global warming consequences will cost 10 percent and probably far more of the world’s total GDP by 2050.
The global warming extinction emergency is already here! Its superstorms, flooding, seasonal disruptions, wildfires, heat waves, migrating insect infestations, and droughts will continue increasing in magnitude and frequency. According to a recent analysis from scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), "[t]he worst-case projections for global warming may be the most likely.”
The next battle now lies in keeping global warming from rising to an extinction-level event where human-caused carbon dioxide and methane levels in the atmosphere push the global temperature increases to 4°-6° Celsius (7.2°-10.8° Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels and beyond. How we can survive and fix this is found in the new Job One for Humanity Plan found on this website.
The following Illustration is From the new Climageddon book:
It is not just a climate change and global warming emergency. It really is a climate change and global warming extinction emergency!
Now that you read the global warming emergency details provided above, it is critical to first read this critical new article which fully explains:
1. why we are already in an undeclared state of a global warming extinction emergency and,
2. what we must now do.
Once you have read the above article, please click here for the good news of what you can do about this climate change and global warming extinction emergency!
Next, please click here first to read about why mass die-offs and a climageddon-type global warming mass extinction event killing most of humanity by mid-century are a near-certainty within the next 30-50 years, but only if we miss the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
Click here for the full timeline and consequence details for this climageddon extinction scenario and countdown.
(Click here to discover why total human extinction is not realistic or probable and the worst humanity will experience is near-total extinction (50 to 90+% of humanity going extinct.)
Receive Free Climate Change & Global Warming Info!
There is also more information about the escalating global warming emergency in the new Climageddon book. In this new book, you will find out why anything at or above a 4°Celcius increase in average global temperature would be incompatible with an organized global society and would be beyond our ability to adapt to it!
Get your copy now! Your book purchase helps support the social benefit mission of Job One for Humanity to end global warming. Click here for more detailed information about this news.