As you read this article, please keep in mind that we have known about the scientific dangers of climate change for more than 60 years. For 60 years, we have failed year after year to make the needed but far easier and gradual global fossil fuel use reductions. Because we wasted 60 years of easy, gradual, and incremental reductions due to the misinformation and disinformation programs of the greed-driven global fossil fuel industry, we now face the radical, honest, and painful global fossil fuel reductions that you are about to read.
The radical, honest, and painful global fossil fuel reductions that are now needed are:
1. All developed countries (including India and China) must reduce ALL fossil fuel burning in transportation, homes, businesses, and manufacturing by 75% by 2025-2031.
(Please note, we only have until about 2031 to make the required reductions if we are very, very lucky, and we do not cross any more major climate tipping points and feedbacks like the collapse of the Thwaites "Doomsday Glacier" or others before 2031. So planning to prevent humanity's extinction and depending by being very lucky is not a wise or genuinely effective plan. Therefore all global fossil fuel reduction plans should be based on the 2025 deadline, not the 2031 date.)
2. All undeveloped countries must reach significantly lower national fossil fuel reduction targets by 2025-2031 (because of climate justice factors discussed below.) And,
3. Each nation must also reach net-zero emissions by a fixed date (discussed below.)
4. Because of the 60 years of ineffective climate action, the only way we can now reach the required global fossil fuel reductions in time to save about 50% (or less) of humanity from extinction is to enact immediate government-enforced rationing of all fossil fuel use in ALL nations. This rationing would be restricted according to the 2025 target amounts discussed below.
The following and full last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets will cause many readers real emotional discomfort. This is because the fossil fuel targets and deadlines below are not only very difficult to reach but also contradict the commonly held public and media-forwarded illusions about what our current fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines should be.
This article also lays bare the global fossil fuel reduction target and deadline deceptions forwarded by wealthy fossil fuel corporations or national vested interests. The commonly promoted 2050, 2040, and 2035 "too little too late" versions of incorrect global fossil fuel targets and deadlines are currently provided to governments (and most environmental groups) by "trusted authorities" like the IPCC (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), are not only dead wrong, they are also dangerously counterproductive to humanity having any livable future. (The IPCC was formerly recognized as the world's leading authority on climate change.)
The new 2025 targets found below were critical to counteract the gross underestimation errors and twisted distortions that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) used to comply with the influence of global and national fossil fuel industries. (If you doubt that the massive financial influence of the 28 trillion dollars a year fossil fuel industry could alter how honest climate science would be presented, click here and read the amazing details about the horrible history of the IPCC twisting and underestimating climate science and the influence of the fossil fuel industry on how it presents climate science.)
In the article below, you will also find links to the documentation on why the incorrect and heavily promoted 2050, 2040, 2035, 2032, and 2030 global fossil fuel targets and deadlines are freeways to failure, gross underestimations, and a fast track to mass extinction for most of humanity by mid-century.
At the end of this article, in the Technical Notes section, you will find the calculations, compensations, and adjustments for "how and why" the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets came into being.
The honest and adjusted 2025 target information below will help organizations and individuals correct their climate change reduction activities. It presents global fossil fuel reduction targets that were not influenced by fossil fuel lobbyists or twisted by the IPCC and that we must get close to by 2025 if we are to survive as a species and civilization.
The following article lays out the facts behind why we have only until 2025 to reduce global fossil fuel use sufficiently to come as close as possible to meeting the 2025 global targets. If we fail, we lose all practical, effective, and meaningful control of our global warming future. We will lose this control of our future because we cannot stop ourselves from crossing many more global warming tipping points, climate feedbacks, and because of complex climate momentum factors and human inertia factors. If we fail to get close to the 2025 targets, we will rapidly trigger the three worst extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points.
At the end of this article, you will also find links to effective governmental actions and individual solutions that must be undertaken to meet the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and detailed technical notes. The technical notes will also explain the many detailed calculations and correct adjustments behind why the 2025 targets are valid and proper targets for where we are now.
We have wasted 60 years of valid scientific warnings. We now have less than five years left to hit the following global fossil fuel reduction targets as the only practical and proven way left to guarantee we can still save and salvage whatever we can for a livable future.
Our current runaway global heating emergency consists of the many direct, indirect, primary, and secondary consequences of climate change and runaway global heating. To save humanity at this point, we must first set a firm "last stand" atmospheric carbon (C02) in parts per million (ppm) limit of carbon 450 ppm.
If we go above carbon 450 ppm, we will push the average global temperature above 2 degrees Celsius. After 2 degrees Celsius, there will be no way to stop runaway global warming from crossing many more climate tipping points and feedbacks, which will cause increased global temperature levels of 3, 4, 5, and 6 degrees Celsius. Only a tiny portion of humanity will be able to survive a 4-degree Celsius increase, and their lives will be a living hell. (If you want to see all of the climate science and extinction nightmares we release upon the world if we go above the carbon 425 to 450 ppm range, click here.)
Unfortunately, politicians and nations will also face the horrible Garrett's Climate Dilemma when they do make the required global fossil fuel cuts described below. Garrett's Climate Dilemma is the dilemma that demonstrates that to save at least half of humanity through critical global fossil fuel cuts needed now, no matter what we do, the other half of humanity will perish from starvation and the other primary and secondary climate consequences by mid-century. (If you want to review additional climate science on why about half of humanity will go extinct by mid-century involving Garrett's Climate Dilemma, click here. We want you to have all of the science and analysis behind our half of humanity going extinct by mid-century statements. Hence, you will know that the many painful and difficult changes you will soon need to make are genuinely warranted.)
The world has waited far, far too long to fix global warming. The painful climate bill has come due. Now about half of humanity will die by mid-century.
Without the required 75% global fossil fuel reductions (described below) achieved by 2025 - 2031 and enacted exclusively through government-enforced global fossil fuel rationing, there is little realistic hope that humanity will be able to prevent its near-total extinction. At this point, only this government-enforced fossil fuel rationing will save us in time. All of our previous efforts to effectively reduce the fossil fuel usage causing global heating have failed miserably.
(If you do not understand the basics of how our fossil fuel emissions go into our atmosphere to create our current global warming emergency, please click here for a set of simple illustrations. After reading this article, we also strongly recommend that you read this most important page on our website about the four major extinction accelerating global warming tipping points.)
(At the end of this article, to counterbalance the disruptive and unsettling climate change, global warming, and fossil fuel reduction facts, you will find a link to a comprehensive four-part plan for what you can do to manage the climate change emergency! You will also find a link to the many surprising and significant benefits that humanity will acquire as together we resolve the climate change challenge and opportunity.)
As of 8.23.2022, we are still not making anything close to the required global fossil fuel reductions to meet or surpass the 2025 global fossil fuel 75% reduction target. This reduction failure means we will not be able to avoid major global temperature increases, horrendous climate calamities, and a mass extinction event far sooner than imagined.
As you can see from the C02 carbon ppm graph near the top of the page, we are not making the required cuts in our fossil fuel use to reduce the carbon going into our atmosphere to slow or reverse rising temperatures.
To adequately prepare you for the shocking REAL fossil fuel reductions that must be made to save humanity, we must first see just how poorly our previous decades of fossil fuel reduction actions have fared since we were first notified about the climate change extinction danger over 60 years ago.
What has been hidden from you:
1. We have increased fossil fuel use far more this century than in the last two decades of the 20th century. More than half of all fossil fuel emissions released over the previous 25 years are more than was released in all of recorded history before 1990.
2. Although we have had over 26 international conferences on fossil fuel reduction, and we have had international treaties since at least 1993 pledging nations would reduce global warming to agreed targets, we still are about 67% higher in carbon emissions than in the early 1990s. (Atmospheric carbon emissions are probably the best way to measure future global warming.)
3. Carbon emissions are projected to rise every year.
4. In 2018 carbon emissions increased another dramatic 2.7% and are projected to rise again in 2019. (Below is a 70-plus year graph that shows the rising carbon (CO2) levels in the atmosphere (in parts per million [ppm]) from burning fossil fuels.
This graph will help you visualize that global warming is not just going bad; it is getting exponentially worse. This worsening is occurring at the same time we are being told by our governments and the media that we are doing better at reducing carbon emissions.
Worse yet, exponential increases in carbon emissions can also mean exponential increases in future global warming consequences.)
Yes, intentionally or through ignorance, our governments, the media, and most of the world's environmental groups have not been telling us the REAL facts about how our REAL lack of any meaningful progress whatsoever in reducing the rate of fossil fuel use. As a result, there has been a complete absence of any substantive on-target fossil fuel use reductions anywhere globally.
Keep in mind the above dismal failure of previous efforts to take fossil fuel reductions seriously and our prior failures to reduce the rates of annual carbon increases. You are now ready to explore the REAL fossil fuel reductions that must be made to save our future.
(Please click here if you still don't believe we are telling the truth about our dismal failure in reducing atmospheric carbon and global warming over the last 60 years. In addition, you will be able to view a short video by climate Professor Kevin Anderson in a recent presentation to the Oxford University Climate Society.)
We now need to radically and immediately reduce our global fossil fuel use to slow or prevent going over the atmospheric carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point. If we cross that tipping point, it leads to crossing several critical extinction-accelerating tipping points.
The absolute minimum total fossil fuel reductions that must occur to prevent going about half of humanity from going extinct not sometime after 2100 but by mid-century are:
a. All industrially developed nations must reduce their total fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025 and then continue reducing fossil fuel use to net-zero carbon emissions by 2035. In this solution, net carbon zero emissions mean that no additional fossil fuel emissions are going into the atmosphere that is not also simultaneously being removed from the atmosphere by natural means. (Only about 20 countries produce 70% or more of the world's carbon emissions.)
Think of developed nations like most members of the G 20 group; Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, and India.
b. All developing nations must maintain their total fossil fuel emission levels as they are at the beginning of 2019 and not allow them to go any higher. Then by 2045, all developing nations must also be at net-zero carbon emissions. They will need to drop their fossil fuel emissions by 6% each year to do this. This allowance for developing nations to stay at the current level and gradually reduce to net-zero carbon emissions by 2045 is part of an essential justice and equity equation.
The developed nations created their wealth by producing most of all carbon emissions in the atmosphere today. As a result, the developed countries have caused almost all of the current global warming extinction emergency.
Please note that the global fossil fuel reduction targets above are not the same as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) global fossil fuel reduction targets. This discrepancy is because the current fossil fuel reduction targets presented by the United Nations and used by governments worldwide are dead wrong!
Those calculations have been politically manipulated to allow fossil fuel-producing countries and companies to maintain their sources of income. As a result, those calculations also have been regularly and significantly "cooked" and underestimated.
Some of the calculations have been "cooked" to allow for "post-2050 atmospheric carbon reduction compensation for a projected and currently non-proven, unscaled and untested for side effects carbon removal technology. However, even the IPCC says this projected new carbon capture technology will not exist, be able to be scaled up adequately or ready until maybe sometime after 2050. (The calculations Job One uses (above) are based on current climate conditions and the correct climate mathematics and physics from legitimate and unafraid climate scientists like Professor Keven Anderson.)
To read about the politicizing of the science and math in the United Nations calculations, click here.
To learn about the cooked calculations for a 2050 carbon capture technology that does not exist in a usable, scalable form and allows the uninformed to believe that we are safe and secure, click here.)
Here are more details and another way of describing why the above 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets are critical to getting close to achieving. Suppose we do not engage in the greatest government-driven mass mobilization in human history, directing all necessary resources toward radically cutting our fossil fuel use to hit the critical 2025 global reduction targets; in that case, we will, without a doubt, go over what is called our "last chance" atmospheric carbon tipping point. This last chance tipping point will occur shortly after crossing into or over the carbon 425-450 parts per million (ppm) range. (See the blue Atmospheric CO2 carbon graph near the top of the page to see how close we are to that point already.)
We call it our last chance tipping point because it truly is our last window of opportunity to keep from going over the first critical carbon 425 to 450 tipping point. Once we go over this tipping point, our average global temperature will inevitably rise well above 2°C, far faster than ever before in geological time. (Geological time is measured in hundreds of thousands to millions of years.)
This high-speed temperature rise will also create a powerful momentum that will push our average global temperature even higher even faster. This momentum comprises many factors and processes, including crossing additional global warming tipping points.
Unfortunately, we will also begin to cross tipping points much quicker once we go over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point.
(Click here to learn more about how global warming tipping points [like those in the illustration above] function, increases global warming temperature, accelerate climate consequences, cause sudden and complete climate, biological and human system collapses, as well as make a recovery from those climate consequences much slower, more complicated and more expensive.)
If we continue only to the carbon 425 ppm tipping point level, within about three years (or less), we can expect to lock in an eventual increase in average global temperature of about 2 -2.7° Celsius (4° - 4.9° Fahrenheit) from preindustrial levels. At just this 2°-2.7° Celsius increased average global temperature, millions more will starve, and millions of additional people from all over the world will eventually be forced to migrate or die.
This die-off occurs in part because of:
a. global warming's systemic and atmospheric carbon accumulation momentum factors,
b. profound human systems inertia and other problem factors (described in part on this page.)
c. more and other crossed tipping points.
Once we go over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point and hit the 2.2°-2.7° Celsius average global temperature increase level, the total heat-producing momentum of all of the previous carbon that we have ever put into the atmosphere, along with the other factors previously mentioned (in a, b and c above,) will once again quickly and inevitably push our global average global temperature even higher!
This rising temperature factor means that for all intents and purposes, once we go over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point and trigger its climate and human system momentum and inertia factors, we are locked into continually increasing temperatures for as much as the next 30-50 years!
Suppose we do cross the carbon 425 carbon ppm tipping point. In that case, we will then reach the next critical threshold. It is the carbon and temperature transition level where we will be unable to stop ourselves from continuing uncontrollably and quickly to 3°, 4°, 5°, and 6° Celsius average global temperature increases (5.4°, 7.2°, 9°, and 10.8° Fahrenheit.) Once we cross the 2°C carbon 425 ppm tipping point, the higher temperature levels of 3°, 4°, 5°, and possibly 6° Celsius also will be all but locked in due to:
1. our continuing to add more carbon to the atmosphere every additional year (at about three ppm per year,)
2. the momentum of ever-increasing heat-producing carbon and other greenhouse gases, and
3. our being unable to stop ourselves from crossing other global warming tipping points and triggering other positive feedback loops and points of no return within the many systems and subsystems of the global climate due to human system inertias and other climate problems.
Because of the preceding, we have no other rational alternative other than to prevent crossing into this perilous carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, range, and tipping point. At our current carbon (and other greenhouse gas levels, entering this 425-450 ppm range will, unfortunately, begin sometime around 2025.
There is something we can be sure of in this emergency. No matter what, and despite all of the challenges and bad outcomes that are possible, the single constant truth for the best possible climate change outcome for humanity in this emergency is that the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use:
a. the more of humanity will survive to carry on all kinds of biological life and our beautiful civilization, and
b. future generations will suffer less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences.
The illustration below shows the red vertical "Must not pass, last chance battle line and range of carbon 425 to 450 ppm." As you can see, going over the carbon 425 tipping point leads us to a very steep and slippery downward slope to our rapid extinction.
The illustration above also lists at what carbon ppm levels the six distinct phases of the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown occur (CS Phase 1-6.) (After you read the rest of the article, we recommend reviewing the primary and secondary global warming consequence found in the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown.)
Crossing the carbon 425 ppm tipping point will set us up to rapidly cross with the next atmospheric carbon extinction-accelerating tipping point level of carbon 500 ppm, where the average global temperature will eventually increase to 4°C. If we miss the 2025 targets, carbon 500 ppm is predicted to happen in 20-25 years, 2038-2042. At a 4°C temperature increase above preindustrial levels, all ice on earth will melt, chaos will ensue, and today's organized society can no longer exist!
Once we cross the carbon 500 ppm extinction-accelerating tipping point, it is near-certain that we will also soon cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction tipping point not too long after that. (Much more will be said about the carbon 500 and 600 ppm extinction tipping point processes and their consequences found elsewhere on this page.)
When we cross this carbon 425-450 ppm "last chance" tipping point, it will rapidly lead to the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. Many of the climate consequences we will experience will also be irreversible for centuries to thousands of years.
Unfortunately, our governments have been giving global warming projections that include a 25-40% underestimation factor as well as not including any compensatory calculations for the 11 key tipping points being crossed. When you add these factors into the prediction calculations to correct them, it becomes evident that we will be facing our worst nightmares of higher global temperatures far faster than for which we are even remotely prepared.
(There is much more information, including our individual, business, and national annual fossil fuel reduction targets, what will happen if we don't hit the above targets, and technical footnotes that will help explain the severity of these fossil fuel reductions. When you finish this article, we recommend you go to this 2025 global fossil fuel reduction target explanation page.)
(Special 4.1.2022 update on the carbon 425 ppm tipping point due to new climate research: Click here to see the horrible news that the global warming Climate Cliff does not occur in 2025 as was previously calculated. We already went over the climate cliff in 2015!)
Getting real about what must be done to reduce fossil fuel use to the needed levels
To grasp how painful the required global fossil fuel cuts will be, imagine that by 2025, you will have to cut your total home, auto, plane, and business activities that use fossil fuels by at least 75%. Then, after doing that, you will have to cut back again to net-zero fossil fuel use within the next ten years. Now try to imagine everyone else in all developed nations doing the same.
If you live in a developed country, are you doing this now? Does that seem possible that you would voluntarily change your everyday life and fossil fuel use so fast? Do you see the governments of the world's developed nations coming together in a great act of cooperation, passing the needed laws, verification procedures, and enforceable punishments necessary to make sure we make the 2025 deadline?
You probably came up with the same answer we did, which is that it is nearly certain we will not make the required 2025 fossil fuel cuts in time or even get close to them. It is more likely that the developed world citizens who did not understand the urgency or importance of why they needed to make these painful fossil fuel use sacrifices would throw their politicians out of office. They would most likely overthrow any government that tried to enforce these radical fossil fuel reductions upon their comfortable or subsistence level lifestyles and livelihoods.
Now imagine all individuals, corporations, and governments in developed nations that mainly depend upon fossil fuels seeing their livelihoods disappear by at least 75% before 2025. How much of a fight and disinformation program would those individuals, industries, and nations put up or create to preserve their existing livelihoods and futures?
It's hard to imagine what the fossil fuel industry would not be capable of doing to preserve a $28 trillion year market segment.
When the above 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets (and other reasons described on this page) are collectively considered, the critical 2025 fossil fuel reductions are theoretically still possible but realistically impossible to achieve.
What is most important to remember is that if we go over the atmospheric carbon 425 ppm level, the primary and secondary global warming-triggered consequences listed on this essential page will bring about the unavoidable die-off of much of humanity mid-century.
More about your annual personal, business, and national fossil fuel reduction targets
The above total fossil fuel reduction targets break down into annual amounts for every person, every business, and every government in the developed world. Each year they must reduce their total fossil fuel use by about 25% or more per year until 2025. These annual reductions will allow us to reach the most critical 2025 overall 75% global fossil fuel reduction target.
Once we have reached that 2025 target successfully, we must then further reduce fossil fuel use at least another 10% per year over the following ten years and before 2035.
If you are in a developing nation, you cannot increase your annual fossil fuel use at all! You will need to begin reducing your fossil fuel use on average by around 6% per year for the next 26 years to hit your critical net zero emissions target by 2045.
(If you don't believe the above developed and developing nations targets are the real fossil fuel reduction targets needed to survive what you read above, click here to view a short video by climate Professor Kevin Anderson. It is a video of a recent presentation to the Oxford University Climate Society.)
What is essential to know is that these shockingly large amounts of required fossil fuel reductions by 2025 for developed nations are critical! The massive 2025 reduction amounts are in part because our past and "popular" current false reduction strategies have resulted in grossly inadequate levels of fossil fuel reductions.
At this point, you are probably angry that we have been continually deceived about our global warming reduction progress. We have also been misled about the REAL annual fossil fuel reduction targets that we should have started making beginning over 60 years ago.
Think about all of the above fossil fuel reduction targets to be met by 2025 and 2035 for developed nations and 2045 for developing nations as the necessary hitting of the emergency brake on a train that is just about to go out of control in a real emergency. If we do not hit the emergency brake by hitting the 2025 targets, our emergency will become an extinction catastrophe!
What's most important to remember about achieving and not achieving the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets
a. We have wasted 60 years of warnings by our best climate scientists, and we are nearly out of time left to control our global warming futures.
b. If we fail to come close to our 2025 targets, most of us will suffer and die or endure unthinkable economic, political, and social chaos by mid-century. This massive catastrophe will be due to the accelerating 20 worst consequences of global warming as well as our crossing three global warming's mass extinction-accelerating tipping points. (These things will be described further below.)
c. We will unfortunately not see the results of any of our successful global warming reduction efforts which we might achieve for about 20 -30 years. Invisible climate momentum and inertia factors will delay seeing current results for decades.
d. If we fail to come close to the 2025 targets, we will need to shift the world's focus and resources to emergency preparations, adaptation, resilience, and migration strategies for the coming and unavoidable mass to near-extinction consequences by mid-century and beyond.
e. If we fail to come close to the 2025 reduction targets, we are not just facing the extinction of half of humanity by mid-century, we are also facing near-total extinction by about 2070-2080! This is because we will cross the carbon 425 ppm level we cross more critical climate tipping points which then causes us to enter the accelerating phases of run-away global heating! (Run-away global heating equals eventual near-total extinction.)
(Click here to discover why total human extinction is not realistic or probable and the worst humanity will experience is near-total extinction (50 to 90+% of humanity going extinct.)
f. If we do achieve the 2025 global fossil fuel targets in time, about half of humanity will still die by mid-century because of what's known as Garret's Dilemma. Part of the dilemma is that the necessary global fossil fuel reductions are so severe that agriculture, (which depends heavily upon fossil fuel and fertilizer for large scale farming,) will crash.
This agricultural crash will cause mass starvation worldwide and much social chaos. But here's where the dire dilemma gets much worse. If you don't come close to the 2025 targets, not only do you lose half of humanity by mid-century, no matter what, but you also lose much of the surviving portion of humanity after mid-century because global warming goes into an irreversible runaway second phase.
This is the horrible Garret's Dilemma every politician in every nation now must face and respond to, or Mother Nature will take over and solve the climate problem for us. Mother nature will keep killing us until so few of us are left that we cannot keep adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
Click here to learn more about Garrett's Dilemma's horrible reality and validity.
Why can't we just set new global fossil fuel reduction targets if we fail?
Many of you may not think the last chance 2025 targets are possible. You may also mistakenly believe that if we fail, we can still set new global targets for after 2025. Unfortunately, setting new targets after 2025 is even less likely to work.
If we fail to hit our extremely challenging 2025 targets, any new annual global fossil fuel reduction targets for the following years will have to be increased by even more than the already severe 2025 targets. Consequently, these new targets will be even less likely to be achieved in the years following 2025 than the original 2025 targets were.
For a moment, imagine we have failed to hit the original 2025 targets. We now have to set even steeper fossil fuel reductions in the years following 2025.
Reaching these new even more stringent fossil fuel reduction targets would crash the world economy even faster. They would also kill more people faster due to mass starvation. (This starvation is because as fossil fuel use is dramatically cut to global agriculture, global food production will also drop substantially.)
Additionally, the question needs to be asked. Will our already weak politicians likely propose even more economic loss or deaths due to starvation if their first attempt failed?
If we have missed our last practical chance to control our global warming future (by reaching the 2025 targets,) trying desperately to hit new even more severe global warming reduction targets will increase the "game over" probability as well as crossing the three mass extinction-accelerating tipping points (described immediately below.)
All of the above also strongly supports the painful reality that we must act decisively now. This is because acting decisively to meet the 2025 targets will, in truth, be our last practical chance to control the global warming future of humanity.
There really are many other compelling reasons we call the 2025 targets our last chance targets as you will soon discover in the next sections. (Also see the technical details and compensatory calculations concerning how the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets were arrived at in the Important Technical Details section near the bottom of this page
Essential questions to ask about your personal, businesses' and nation's progress on the 2025 global fossil fuel targets
If you are in a developed country, here are some crucial questions to ask yourself:
How are you doing on reducing your total personal fossil fuel use this year by 25%?
How is the business that you are working at doing in reducing its total annual fossil fuel use this year by 25%?
How is your nation doing in reducing its total annual fossil fuel use by its 25% target for this year?
It is critical to keep in mind that hitting the 2025 targets is tantamount to avoiding the likelihood of entering the half of humanity to-near-total extinction process. Consequently, the greatest emphasis must be made to reach this first target level.
Reaching your annual targets is important because, for every year any individual, business or nation does not hit their targets, it causes their fossil fuel reduction targets for the following years to be further increased to make up for all differences!
If you, your business, or your nation is not making its targets, please do not despair or do not beat yourself up. We have no time to waste on those kinds of activities.
Here's what you can do if you're not hitting your annual targets:
1. see what is needed to get our governments to execute all of the critical 2025 radical fossil fuel reducing actions (found prioritized in Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
2. see what is needed to get the world's wealthiest individuals and corporations to recognize this is a no-win game for them as well. Once they see that no amount of money will save them in the long run, they will use their vastly more powerful influence to get the world's politicians to get the 2025 targets achieved. (Please see Part 4 of the Job One Plan.)
3. understand what is needed to get ourselves and our businesses to execute the annual 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets listed above and as described in Part 2 of our Job One Plan.
If you are in a developing country, here are some crucial questions to ask yourself:
How are you doing on reducing your personal total annual fossil fuel use for this year to meet your target of no new fossil fuel use?
How is the business that you are working at doing in reducing its total annual fossil fuel use for this year to meet its targets?
How is your nation doing in reducing its total annual fossil fuel use by its target for this year?
It is critical to keep in mind that hitting your annual and 2025 reduction targets is equivalent to slowing down a mass human, animal, and biological species extinction event process from occurring by mid-century. Please also keep in mind that for every year any individual, business, or nation does not hit their targets, it causes their targets for the following years to be increased accordingly.
If you, your business, or your nation is not making its targets, do not despair and do not beat yourself up. We have no time to waste on those kinds of activities.
If you're not hitting your personal or business annual targets, here's what you can get started on immediately:
1. see what is needed to get our governments to execute all of the critical 2025 radical fossil fuel reducing actions (found prioritized in Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
2. see what is needed to get the world's wealthiest individuals and corporations to recognize this is a no-win game for them as well. No amount of money will save them in the long run.
Once they realize this, they will use their vastly more powerful influence to get the world's politicians to get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets achieved on time. (Please see Part 4 of the Job One Plan.)
3. understand what is needed to get ourselves and our businesses to execute the annual fossil fuel reduction targets listed above and as described in Part 2 of our Job One Plan.
Why there will be massive suffering and death for much of humanity by mid-century if we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets?
The four critical levels of global warming tipping points we will cross in the near future
Below please find the four most important global warming tipping point levels within our complex climate system, which will involve interacting climate, biological and human systems, and subsystems. Those four tipping point levels are:
1. The carbon 425-450 tipping point level. (This tipping point initiates a significant acceleration of the previously initiated runaway process for triggering more and more global warming tipping points at faster and faster rates. This initial triggering of the runaway tipping point process began when we went over the carbon 386 ppm tipping point about 2015.)
2. The extinction-accelerating runaway global ice melting tipping point level. (ALL ice and ALL glaciers on Earth will enter a near-unstoppable process of a complete meltdown! (Sea levels could rise up to 10 feet over decades and up to 220 feet over several centuries.)
3. The extinction-accelerating runaway massive methane release tipping point level. (Massive amounts of methane gas start being released from ocean coastal shelves and the world's permafrost.) And,
4. The runaway rising global warming temperature level. (This final global warming tipping point level leads to a near-total extinction event. This is because our average global temperatures rising so high that Earth's atmosphere is ripped off into space and everything dies.)
Click here to learn more about what each tipping point in the illustration below is, how crossing global warming tipping points function, how they accelerate global warming temperature rise, how they accelerate global warming consequences, and how they cause sudden and complete climate, biological and human system collapses as well as how they make any possible recovery from crossing tipping points much slower, harder and more expensive.
Something important to remember is that as global warming continues and we cross more and more global warming tipping points, the worst global warming consequences will increase in frequency, scale and they will increase faster and faster, but they will not grow gradually and linearly. They will grow exponentially!
(In the graph below, the red line is an example of a linear, somewhat steady, and predictable gradual global warming consequence growth trajectory. (Linear progression equals 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, etc.)
The green line below is an example of a sudden, exponential, and highly unpredictable global warming consequence growth trajectory. (Exponential progression equals 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 264, etc.)
The exponential growth of global warming consequences means that few individuals, businesses, NGOs, corporations, or governments will be able to manage or compensate for these rapidly escalating consequences for very long. It also means that unless you have made your emergency preparations long before global warming consequences grow exponentially, you will probably not have the time to do so once they do. (Remember the mad rush of unprepared people for toilet paper and masks at the beginning of the pandemic.)
This getting caught unprepared danger will also exist because the social, economic, and political systems will become exponentially more unpredictable, unstable, and chaotic once global warming enters the global warming exponential curve (the green line above.).
If you have not prepared for exponential global warming consequence growth, you will find yourself in a living hell! In the carbon and methane graphs presented earlier, you can clearly see that both carbon and methane are already rising exponentially in our atmosphere compared to pre-industrial revolution levels. (For far more about the coming exponentially growing global warming consequences catastrophe, please see this page on how global warming tipping points work.)
There is one additional factor invisibly feeding the exponential growth of global warming consequences. It is the already existing carbon and methane climate momentum. We have put so much carbon and methane into the atmosphere since the beginning of the Industrial revolution, the self-reinforcing and self-amplifying effect of this climate momentum will keep pushing global warming towards exponential acceleration for decades. No matter what we do!
As the research and analysis verification links in this document reveal, there is no longer such a thing as a program of gradual fossil fuel reduction being a viable alternative. We squandered that option with our last 60 years of procrastination, denial, and delay in effectively reducing our global fossil fuel use.
Because of our lost 60 years of denial and delay, what we need to do now will be radical, painful, and costly. That is now the price of our future if, we want to have any future at all.
Don't be fooled. This extinction emergency is not far off in the future.
This emergency is now and not a "get to it later" problem for you or your children later in their life. It directly or indirectly will adversely affect you and your children within your lifetime!
By 2025 we will know if we are locked into the path of likely mass extinction and possibly near-total extinction because we are going to cross four critical extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points. We will see if we will be able to salvage any livable future for humanity for the second half of this 21st century and for the centuries to follow.
What this implies is that we also will know if we are at the practical end of history and everything humanity has ever cared about.
We do not often engage in conversations about the extinction of our species, but now is the time to do so with your friends and associates. Failure to hit the 2025 reduction targets means mass human, animal, and biological extinction within our lifetimes! That is what we mean when we say we are in a "global warming extinction emergency."
Right now this self-made suicidal tragedy is already affecting hundreds of millions of people around the world. Over the next 10 to 20+ years; it's going to get far worse even faster, affecting billions.
Most people do realize that mass human, animal, and biological extinction within their lifetime is unthinkably horrible. What they do not realize is that massive global warming catastrophes will start occurring more frequently long before the above 3 tipping point extinction process runs its full course. Within the next decade or two, we will begin seeing a significant acceleration of worldwide global warming disasters and catastrophes.
These disasters will continue to increase in frequency, severity, and scale in an oscillating pattern. This pattern is where the oscillation of these new weather extremes becomes worse and worse and then occurs at closer and closer intervals. Long before this global warming-fueled mass extinction reaches its peak 30-50 years from now, our economic, political, and social systems will experience widespread chaos and collapse.
If you can imagine a living hell on Earth, you would be adequately seeing our quickly developing future.
If you still have doubts that it will get as bad as we say, we ask you to also first read this most important global warming tipping point page on our website. As you read about these four major global warming accelerating tipping points our current extreme extinction threat will become vividly true, real, and understandable to you.
And finally, if you're a science person, do not forget about the Technical Notes at the bottom of this page. In the Technical Notes section, you will find the calculations, compensations, and adjustments for "how and why" the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets came into being.
"There can be no margin of error whenever there is a real and imminent threat of total human extinction." Lawrence Wollersheim
The good news...
The essential positive perspective on the above disruptive global warming and climate change news
Despite the many types of challenging global warming consequences and past fossil fuel reduction mistakes that we now face, we can still learn from their feedback, and we can adapt and evolve to make life as good and as happy as is possible. No matter how severe the coming global warming consequences might become, if we wisely play the remaining cards that we have been dealt with, we can still achieve the best remaining possible outcomes.
We can yet make a significant difference to reduce global fossil fuel use to stabilize and save the future of humanity by executing a comprehensive reduction and survival plan like the Job One for Humanity global warming action plan.
We can still maintain the perseverance needed to succeed in this monumental task by regularly reviewing the many benefits which will unfold as we work successfully on this together. (Click here to review those benefits.)
We can persevere through this time of emergency. We just need to remember that our greatest challenges are also the seeds of our greatest opportunities.
We are engaged in nothing less than the most critical and meaningful evolutionary opportunity, challenge, and adventure in human history! It is our last opportunity to slow down the mass human extinction threat by getting close to these 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Only reaching these targets will fully remove the near-total extinction threat. In reaching these targets, we also significantly improve many of the world's other 12 major challenges.
Get started today on the Job One for Humanity global warming reduction and survival plan. Help save and salvage as much of humanity and our beautiful civilization as is possible.
What you can do to ensure near-total extinction does not happen or at the least, survive longer if we lose this battle
To survive mass human extinction within our lifetimes, we must all stay calm and carry on. We must also get the world's politicians to act now because we currently are not at all safe or secure!
In the priority order given below, we must come together to take the following four life-critical action steps to save and salvage what we can before it is too late:
1. if you can directly influence any politicians, get them to understand this extinction emergency and execute the 2025 global fossil fuel reducing actions (these governmental actions are found prioritized in Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
2. if you have any direct or indirect connections to the world's elites (i.e. ultra-wealthy corporations, individuals, celebrities, philanthropies, etc.,) get these elites to recognize this emergency is a no-win game for them as well. Help them realize that no amount of money, power, or fame will save them in the long run.
Once they understand this, many of them will use their own powerful direct influence on the world's politicians to get them to get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets achieved on time. (Please see Part 4 of the Job One Plan for help with this step.)
3. while doing 1 and 2 above, as individuals or as businesses work toward meeting the 2025 critical fossil fuel reduction targets as described in the fossil fuel reduction actions found in Part 2 of our Job One Plan.
4. While doing 1, 2, and 3 above, get busy on your personal emergency backup Plan B. Starting Plan B is critical because the probability that we will meet the very challenging 2025 targets is extremely low. (In addition to what you have read above, see this page for many reasons it will be beyond challenging to meet the 2025 targets.)
And finally, the big remaining question is... are you going to do your urgently needed part to help make these 2025 last chance fossil fuel reductions happen?
Your and your children's immediate future depends upon the choices you make and what to do in this life and death emergency.
Ultimately, we will either succeed together, or we will die together!
The most important things to remember from this page!
1. There is only one real global warming deadline that is necessary to burn into your mind.
If we miss the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets by a lot, half of humanity, as well as many animal and biological species, will go extinct by mid-century! If we do not get very close to the 2025 targets, humanity will enter the accelerating phase of runaway global warming and the runaway greenhouse effect, and eventually we will experience a near-total extinction event.
2. If we widely miss the 2025 targets, we go over the carbon 425-450 tipping point, no existing new technology can scale up fast enough to save us! The 2025 targets really are our last chance! Our ability to maintain effective or meaningful control over this extinction emergency ends just after we breach the carbon 425-450 ppm range. If we do not come very close to the 2025 targets, our last chance, the final window opportunity to effectively control our own destiny regarding preventing even worse extinction level tipping points from being crossed literally closes!
3. If we go over the carbon 425-450 tipping point, the worst consequences of global warming will not only increase in severity, frequency, and scale, they will also come at us faster and faster. Eventually, everything we depend upon in an organized society for our survival becomes so unstable that an organized society can no longer exist. At that not too distant point, we then starve to death, or die in resource scarcity collapses or conflicts in a "migrate or die" chaos, or in national conflicts.
4. It is the pure physics and mathematics of global warming temperature dynamics that will take over after we go over the carbon 425-450 tipping point and cross the three other extinction evoking global warming tipping points to drive our temperatures ever higher past 3, 4, and 5 degrees Celsius.
5. While you personally can do some things on your own to reduce global warming, there is nothing you can do individually (or even in large groups,) to effectively hit the 2025 targets. It is now a last chance governmental responsibility to save us. The 2025 targets can only be achieved by governments working together, mass mobilizing, and immediately issuing new global warming reduction laws, and then verifying and enforcing that they are followed to hit the 2025 targets.
To get our governments in action, we need to get our politicians in action first! Part 4 of the Job One plan will help you do this!
6. Not making the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets is the ultimate no-win game because we are in truth facing a near-total extinction event and the completion of the Sixth Great Extinction Event of human history. What must be realized is that we must do only and exactly what is necessary to meet the 2025 targets. Getting lost on actions that do not forward the 2025 targets critical path is at best a distraction and at worst measures that will amount to "too little too late" to save us.
7. It is critically important to understand that no compensatory calculations for the effects of any global warming tipping points being crossed were ever included in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC,) calculations for precisely how much we have to reduce our global fossil fuel use to save ourselves from extinction. This is important because the IPCC's global fossil fuel reduction calculations are currently being used by all of the member governments of the United Nations (about 190 countries,) for setting their own internal national fossil fuel reduction programs. This horrific failure to include crossing any global warming tipping points in our current global and national fossil fuel reduction calculations is also true for the world's most recent 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. This omission of including proper calculations for crossing global warming tipping points as the world continues to warm is the recipe for mutually assured destruction. Yes, this failure to include allowance calculations for crossed tipping points shockingly also means that the national fossil fuel reduction programs of every member of the United Nations using the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement targets are also based on incomplete and inaccurate calculations.
8. The largest illustration on this page (above,) the Global Warming and the Climageddon Scenario Cascading Meltdown reflects the unfolding natural progression of ever-worsening consequences, tipping points, and human system processes that will accelerate as global warming continues. These consequences, tipping points, and human systems will also synergetically and cumulatively collide with each other and adversely interact. It is these ever-increasing interactions among and between worsening global warming consequences, tipping points, and human systems that will make each of these things worse faster and faster.
This illustration reflects the core of the final processes that will lead to our mass extinction and global economic, political, and social chaos. Its three levels of global warming interactions (consequences, tipping points, and human systems) highlight the continuous onslaught of emergencies, crises, and catastrophes that we are already experiencing and which foretell our eventual extinction if we fail to reach the 2025 targets.
9. Most of you that have understood the previous facts (that do not fall into a natural and defensive denial) will appropriately feel shocked, sad, angry, or even betrayed. The most logical and best thing to do to deal with those often overwhelming feelings is to work for "the best" while you prepare for "the worst," just in case we fail. What this means is that you will need to focus as much as your energy and resources on just two main action strategies:
a. Get busy with emergency preparations and adaptations for you, your family, and/or your business for many of the now unavoidable consequences that will be arriving soon no matter what we do and in case we fail to hit the 2025 targets. (Click here to begin this process.) and,
b. Get busy on getting the 2025 reduction targets met by getting our governments enacting and enforcing the laws needed to reach the 2025 targets. (Click here to learn what you need to know to get started on this.)
These two action-based strategies will minimize the natural feelings of being shocked, sad, angry, or feeling completely betrayed by our current world leaders until you can get additional emotional support or assistance from other outside sources or from working through the Kubler Ross model on your own.
10. The REAL crisis, challenge, and ultimately global warming question for our collective and individual future is..."How do we prevent a global warming-caused near-total extinction event from occurring while we are simultaneously dealing with an unavoidable mass extinction event, which is already occurring?"
11. Keep in mind that our government leaders have utterly failed to see the coming pain and suffering of the COVID-19 pandemic, nor did they adequately prepare for it. Our government leaders are also not seeing or adequately preparing for the global warming extinction emergency, which is already happening and will be far, far worse than COVID-19!)
12. One of the hardest things for people to grasp regarding the global warming emergency is that by the time our governments finally get serious about fixing the global warming emergency, it will probably be too late to fix it. This irony is due to the increasing temperature momentum already in the climate system.
13. We now have less than five years left to hit the following global fossil fuel reduction targets as the only practical and proven way left to guarantee we can still save and salvage whatever we can for a livable future.
14. Be sure to read the technical notes further down this page. This will help you verify the validity of the 2025 targets and the many compensatory and corrective calculations behind them.
(Many key areas of this document were derived from the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown document. It breaks down the complex global warming processes at the next level to help prove to you that the technical details above are accurate. If you have not yet read about the six phases of the Climageddon extinction scenario, which will take you level-by-level through the consequence and timetable details as humanity moves ever closer to extinction, we strongly recommend doing do so now by clicking here.)
In a nutshell:
This article has laid out the facts behind why we have only until 2025 to reduce global fossil fuel use sufficiently to come as close as possible to meeting the 2025 global targets. Each year we fail to hit these targets, the target for the remaining years goes up by the percentage of the missed target from the previous year, making the likelihood of meeting these targets more doubtful.
If we fail, we lose effective and meaningful control of our global warming future. We will have lost control of our future because of complex climate momentum factors, human inertia factors, as well as passing over the carbon 425-450 tipping point. Once we pass over the carbon 425-450 tipping point, we will rapidly trigger additional extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points.
Because of 60 years of ineffective climate action, the only way we can now reach the required global fossil fuel reductions in time to save about 50% (or less) of humanity from extinction is to enact immediate government-enforced rationing of all fossil fuel use in all nations. This rationing would be restricted according to the 2025 target amounts discussed above.
Why are only a few of the world's thousands of environmental groups promoting the real 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines?
The most correct answer is that most of these environmental groups have been cleverly and invisibly deceived into accepting the incorrect analysis and interpretations of current global warming research by hidden vested interests and compromised bureaucratic "authorities."
Click here to read about how our current grossly inadequate global fossil fuel reduction targets are being presented to the general public. These targets have been twisted and promoted by hidden vested interests who have literally "cooked the books" and the proper calculations needed for honest and accurate targets.
Click here to read about other key systemic global warming consequences and timetable deceptions.
After reading the above two links, you now know why so many groups are promoting the wrong global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines. Please do everything you can to get the information on this page to these groups and the world's politicians!
A quick and simple way you can immediately help get us closer to achieving the challenging 2025 targets
Only a handful of ecological organizations are promoting the real 2025 targets. If you have a connection to any of the following ecological groups, Greenpeace, World Wildlife Fund, 350.org, MoveOn.org the Sierra Club (or any other major environmental organizations around the world), please help get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets information to them. Directly ask them to adjust their educational and promotional materials accordingly.
We are facing enormous challenges trying to achieve the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets with so little time left. The last thing we need is the leaders in environmental education, providing out-of-date, incorrect, or fossil fuel lobbyists twisted global fossil fuel reduction targets and wrong deadlines!
Job One for Humanity needs your personal help in reaching every major environmental group on the planet with the correct 2025 targets. At least this way, everyone in the environmental movement is aiming at the correct destination on the correct deadlines.
If we can't make this happen with educational organizations fully dedicated to saving the environment, humanity, the animals, and other biological species, how will we ever get our politicians on to achieving the correct 2025 global reduction targets? (When you do this educational action, be sure to be a respectful disruptor described in this link.)
The hard facts for why we must press on and get as close to the 2025 targets as possible in spite of all the above challenges
If we do get close to the 2025 targets, most of humanity will suffer and die due to starvation over a relatively short period (by mid-century.) As horrible as most of humanity and a lot of animals and biological life suffering and dying is, this outcome is still far better than having all of humanity suffer and die if we fail to reach or come very close to the 2025 targets.
There are only three things we can always be sure of during this global warming emergency. In spite of all of the challenges and adverse global warming outcomes that are possible and discussed above and on this website, the single constant truth for the best possible outcome for humanity is that; the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use toward meeting or getting as close as possible to the 2025 targets:
a. the more people that will survive longer to carry on humanity, life, and our beautiful civilization into the future (See Parts 3 and 4 of the Job One Plan for how to do this.)
b. the surviving future generations will suffer far less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences and catastrophes, and
c. we will "buy" ourselves more time to prepare and adapt to what we can no longer avoid (see the global warming Plan B and survival kit here.)
More people surviving longer and more people having time to prepare themselves, their families, and their businesses for what is coming is an undeniable good, particularly when you weigh it against the unavoidable consequences of doing nothing or failing to make the needed sacrifices to get global warming under control.
Click here to see where we are today on the Climate Change and Global Warming Doomsday Clock.
Important technical details on the calculations and compensations for how the 2025 targets were created
Here are the technical facts, footnotes, and disclosures which affect the validity of the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets described at the top of this document. Many global warming educational organizations are using a different climate change and global warming Doomsday Clock date. They are promoting that all nations of the world have to reduce their total fossil fuel use by 50% by 2030. This 2030 date is dead wrong for many reasons.
One of the biggest reasons is that this 2030 target date ignores principles of equity, responsibility for harm caused, and social justice. It demands that all of the undeveloped, poorer nations reduce their annual fossil fuel use the same 50% amount as all of the wealthy and developed nations. This demand for the same amount of fossil fuel reduction is even though the wealthy developed nations have caused almost all of the global warming and atmospheric carbon pollution problems that we now face.
The correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets mentioned further above allow the poorer, undeveloped nations to cut their annual fossil fuel use considerably less than the wealthy developed nations. Yet, we all still get to the overall 2025 critical global targets.
There are also many other reasons those organizations still promoting the erroneous 2030 Doomsday Clock global fossil fuel reduction targets are wrong. These other reasons are found in the numbered Technical Notes section found further below.
The following technical information is for fellow researchers and techies who want the detail behind the calculations and factors involved in calculating the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets listed at the top of the page. This technical information is also useful in that it also shows you what is missing or wrong with the "too little too late" 2050, 2040, and 2035 global fossil fuel reduction targets and doomsday deadlines also being promoted by governments, the United Nations, and quite a few other environmental groups.
Here are the qualifying and essential facts and factors relevant to calculating the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets:
1. The core science and base calculations behind the 2025 fossil fuel targets described on this page are based on the work of renowned climatologist Kevin Anderson. Kevin is one of the few climatologists unafraid to speak the "truth to power" and show the errors within the highly politicized calculations of "authorities" like the United Nation's IPCC. Using his calculations as our starting base we then allowed for additional factors being added or compensated for that even Kevin Anderson did not allow for in his calculations. You will see the additional factors and corrections described in the rest of these technical notes.
(Here are the links to the two videos by climate Prof. Kevin Anderson discussing in detail the REAL fossil fuel reduction calculations needed. Click here for the first professor Anderson video. Click Here for the second professor Anderson video.)
2. Like almost all other 2050-2040 2035 and 2030 fossil fuel reduction targets, the above 2025 global fossil fuel reduction amounts and calculations also do not include any of the false and grossly misleading atmospheric carbon capture technology reduction calculations and "compensations" currently being included in our current international fossil fuel reduction calculations and the fossil fuel reduction treaties. These future carbon capture compensations are being used by "trusted authorities" like the IPCC, (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ) almost all governments and environmental groups.
The IPCC's newest global fossil fuel reduction target and deadline is "a global reduction in all fossil fuel use by 40% by 2030." This 40% level is far too little, far too late to save use from grave danger in the future.
The reasons the IPCC targets and 2030 deadline are far too little far too late in part is as follows:
a. The current IPCC carbon capture calculations reverse backward into today's IPCC's calculations extensive compensatory fossil fuel use allowances for what our current fossil fuel reductions should be. They base these allowances for burning more fossil fuel today because of the unproven future atmospheric carbon removal success of negative emission technologies (NETs.)
Yes, that does not make sense. Quite unbelievably, the IPPC relies upon that NETs may be put into successful operation at the proper scale sometime after 2050 for the carbon allowances they using today in today's reduction targets. (NETs are also sometimes called BECCS (bio-energy with carbon capture and storage.)
This also means that these miraculous and nonexistent atmospheric carbon removal technologies will not be deployed in time to meet the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
The IPCC's current mathematical reliance upon these "will be working after 2050 magical "carbon sucking unicorns" when setting today's reduction targets, allows the IPCC and the governments of the world to delude the general public as to the real nature of the worldwide warming extinction emergency. It also enables the IPCC to foist bogus and grossly inadequate current carbon reduction targets upon unsuspecting populations.
This also allows unsuspecting national populations to believe they are safe when, in fact, they are in grave peril.
These false IPCC calculations have also fooled most of the world's largest environmental groups. They have also relied on the IPCC's estimates for the current global fossil fuel reduction calculations. These false IPCC calculations are allowing the fossil fuel industries and fossil fuel-producing nations to continue with "business as usual" while the rest of the society believes there is no or little urgency for reaching the 2025 global targets listed above.
The carbon capture technologies (NETs) which are currently projected by the IPCC to eventually keep (or return) the average global temperature to near 2°C do so by removing about 100 gigatons of carbon from the atmosphere. With no scientific testing at scale, the IPCC also believes that these magical carbon-sucking unicorns operating sometime after 2050 can remove 100 gigatons of carbon from the atmosphere without any disastrous or even worse side effects.
To help you get an idea of just how big our atmospheric carbon capture problem is, consider that one gigatonne or metric gigaton (unit of mass) is equal to 1,000,000,000 metric tons. One hundred gigatons would equal 100 billion metric tons or 100,000,000,000 metric tons.
Carbon capture is an important and complex issue that should not be relevant to setting the correct and honest current global fossil fuel reduction targets to save humanity and the future. Please click here for the whole crazy story about how these "magical carbon sucking unicorns" are being used to "cook the books" for the critical fossil fuel reduction calculations by the IPCC, the world's governments, and most of the world's environmental organizations to set (or promote,) the current global fossil fuel reduction calculations.
We need honest reduction calculations we can use today based on today's resources and technology, not some theoretical calculations based on an unproven and unscaled, new technology that may or may not exist in 2050!
b. Unfortunately, our governments also have been giving global warming predictions and fossil fuel reduction calculations that include a 25-40% underestimation factor. They have also been not including any calculations for any of the 11 key tipping points being crossed.
When you add these two factors back into the prediction calculations to correct them, it becomes obvious that if we miss our 2025 reduction targets, we will be facing our worst higher temperature nightmares far faster than we are even remotely prepared. To read about the politicizing of the science and math in the United Nations calculations as well as their underestimation and tipping point exclusion errors, click here.
3. The above 2025 reduction calculations also do not include any extra reduction percentage or calculations for the massive spikes in carbon and methane emissions. These spikes will occur when we closely approach or cross new permafrost and tundra melting global warming tipping points.
To be safe, the 2025 percentages for fossil fuel emissions reduction should be significantly higher by another 10-15% to allow for approaching or crossing more global warming tipping points. Not allowing any fossil fuel reduction compensatory calculations for any tipping point crossing issues amounts to planning for perfection. Planning for perfection is always planning to fail. Click here to learn more about the tipping points that will suddenly release massive additional amounts of carbon and methane into the atmosphere.
4. The 2025 reduction calculations above are based on current and projected carbon CO2 levels in the atmosphere provided by the United Nations. They do not show the total levels of all greenhouse gases now in our atmosphere as tracked by CO2e. (CO2e measures ALL major greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.)
Because the calculations above also do not include the necessary reductions for methane and the other greenhouse gases as tracked by CO2e, the reduction calculations above probably should also be increased by another 2 to 4%. This additional 2 to 4% reduction would in part, allow for the factor that methane is 86 times more potent for increasing global warming than carbon as Co2 in our atmosphere. As shocking as it sounds, methane releases into the atmosphere from fracking or natural gas distribution is seldom measured or regulated by countries worldwide, including the US.
5. The above 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets also do not include any of the fossil fuel emissions currently produced by all import-export activities between nations. These extra emissions are significant because ocean cargo ships, trains, planes and other methods used for international import-export transport produce a lot of all global fossil fuel emissions. For some reason which defies logic, those scientists charged by the governments to measure and regulate global fossil fuel emissions also have carved out a political exemption for measuring or regulating this particular category of emissions, which could be up to 2 % of the world's total fossil fuel emissions.
6. To make the above 2025 reduction calculations work to save humanity from extinction, both China and India can no longer be considered developing nations. They must be required to make the same fossil fuel reduction targets as all other developed nations. This inclusion is necessary at this time because they are producing far too much of the world's total carbon emissions. China is already the world's largest fossil fuel polluter. There will be no way to meet the already severe fossil fuel reduction targets if they are not placed into the developed nation's category.
7. There are no effective international climate justice agreements regarding the differences in required fossil fuel reductions between developed and developing nations. All that exists today, which considers equity, and existing global warming treaty responsibilities is the usually ignored and unenforceable UNFCCC treaty.
This is the treaty most of the world signed and ratified. Its operating principles began with "Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities." The problem here is there is that no treaty agreement specifies the proportionate remedial responsibilities based on who did the damage. There is also no treaty on the required differences in fossil fuel reductions that each developed or developing country must make.
To make matters worse, the US and many other nations are currently not abiding by existing fossil fuel reduction treaties. Due to the nature of this emergency, to resolve current inadequacies and the inadequacies of past global warming treaties and agreements, it was necessary to come up with at least something valid, workable, and just reduction calculation that could be put into action immediately. This is our plan where developing nations were given far less initial fossil fuel reduction requirements and a longer time to reach net-zero carbon emissions. In short, the 2025 reductions mentioned above are REAL and necessary, and they can work to avert the extinction threat.
8. Having carbon neutrality, or a net-zero carbon footprint means achieving net-zero carbon emissions by balancing any measured amounts of carbon dioxide C02 released into the atmosphere with an equivalent measured quantity of carbon dioxide taken from the atmosphere and being captured for long-term storage (see carbon sequestration). In the Job One Plan, this carbon capture and sequestration(CCS) should happen almost exclusively through our already-existing natural biological, chemical, and physical processes. (See this definition of global warming for illustrations on how the climate's heat controlling systems and processes handle carbon capture and sequestration among other things).
Net-zero carbon emissions by 2035 or sooner for developed nations and 2045 or sooner for developing nations is a challenging subgoal to achieve. It will also require that strong financial disincentives be placed on fossil fuel use as well as keeping almost all existing fossil fuels in the ground and never burned (coal, oil, natural gas, tar sands, etc.) While doing this, we will also have to be heavily incentivizing natural carbon sequestration methods, as discussed in Part 3 of the Job One Plan.
9. Once we get to net-zero carbon emissions by 2035 for the developed nations, and 2045 for the developing nations we still aren't safe. There is much left to get done to restore our climate's long-term natural atmospheric carbon balance back down to around carbon 270-300 ppm (its preindustrial level.)
10. The Job One Plan or any other legitimate plans for achieving net-zero carbon emissions also does not endorse Cap and Trade methods of arriving at net zero carbon and carbon-neutrality through offset schemes. Current Cap and Trade methods are too often a disguise for "business as usual." They will not get us to the critical fossil fuel reduction levels we need in the extremely limited time left to keep us from crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point. In Job One's targeted version of getting to carbon-neutrality, we use a method called Fee and Dividend (discussed in part three of our Job One Plan.) In our plan, you will not be able to buy Cap and Trade carbon credits to make up the difference and achieve net-zero carbon emissions through buying offsets because that inevitably promotes more fossil fuel burning.
11. Net-zero carbon emission calculations from fossil fuel use by 2035 in developed and developing countries could allow for a minimal amount of fossil fuel use for agriculture and medical uses.
12. The required fossil fuel reduction calculations discussed above are based on attempting to keep the average global temperature from rising two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. It is calculated that if we cross that 2°C maximum levels of average global temperature increase above the preindustrial level, somehow we will be able to control the extremely slippery slope which will quickly lead us to 3, 4, and 5° Celsius increases in average global temperature.
13. The reason undeveloped nations have considerably lower 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets is because of the principles of climate justice. Put simply; they have added so little carbon fossil fuel pollution to the atmosphere compared with the countries in the illustration below. The difference between the big polluters who primarily have caused today's global warming extinction emergency and the low-level polluting nations is staggering.
There is additional strong evidence beyond what has been discussed above that; even if we are successful in achieving the 2025 targets, the average global temperature will still rise to 3°C and likely beyond with many unavoidable and horrendous consequences. This 3°C and beyond means that we have a real problem as far as making only the above-required fossil fuel reductions.
We have to make the required 2025 fossil fuel reductions no matter what! It is also highly likely that even those steep fossil fuel reductions are still not enough to avoid unthinkable suffering or the wide-scale reduction of the human population by as much as 50%.
On the other side of this painful quandary is an even scarier fact. If we do not make the 2025 targets, it is very likely that we will lose nearly everybody in as little as 30 to 50 years. In 30-50 years, as much as 70 to 90% of humanity (if not all,) will suffer and die.
What other choice do we have other than to make the required 2025 fossil fuel reductions while at the same time knowing we're probably going to have to make even steeper fossil fuel reductions as more research becomes available?
What we do know is this. No matter what, and in spite of all of the challenges and adverse outcomes that are possible, the single constant truth for the best possible global warming outcome is that the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use:
a. the more people we will survive to carry on our civilization, and
b. that future generations will suffer less from the ever-increasing sequence of global warming consequences (as described fully in what is called the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and countdown.)
13. The above 2025 critical fossil fuel reduction targets are still significantly lower than they should be. The 2025 global fossil fuel reduction amounts described at the top of the page are the minimum essential starting reduction amounts. Based on numerous uncalculated factors and conditions described in 1-12 above, they should be significantly higher.
Based on the best current science from climate Professors like Kevin Anderson, the 2025 targets and deadlines above at least, are far closer to what we must do, and we have to start somewhere. These new working fossil fuel targets and timelines are based on both good science and climate justice and must now replace our current ridiculously impotent governmental and IPCC (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) global warming reduction targets and deadlines.
If we really wanted to be completely safe and if we took into consideration all of the other calculation mistakes and inclusion or exclusion factors that were not considered, we probably should be targeting 80 to 85% fossil fuel reductions in all developed nations by 2025 (or earlier.) This would also require a modification to net-zero carbon in all developed nations by around 2032 or earlier. Higher fossil fuel reduction adjustments also would need to be made for the targets in developing nations that would be aligned with that which was re-targeted for developed nations. And finally,
14. In all fairness, it is critical to also candidly discuss just how enormously difficult it will be to reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Unfortunately, because of our:
1. lack of progress over the last 60 years,
2. the ongoing global denial that global warming is real, and
3. the several dozen other reasons described on this 2025 many challenges page, it is highly probable that we will not be successful in achieving the 2025 targets. (Please see this detailed 2025 challenges page to understand why our probable failure to reach the 2025 targets is our most likely future.)
16. It also should be noted that many, many climate scientists have had the courage to say we are already well past the point of effectively stopping global warming from reaching a 2 degree Celcius increase in average global temperature (above our pre-industrial temperature levels.) When our average global temperature reaches a 2 degree Celcius increase, we have crossed over the last carbon 425-450 ppm battle line. This means that the mass extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points described on this page will soon be triggered.
In essence, what these "it is already too late" climate scientists are now saying is:
a. We have already gone past the midnight hour on the Climate Change and Global Warming Doomsday Clock.
b. All we can do now is prepare for and adapt to the horrible list of consequences described in this article.
c. We will not be able to avoid a mass extinction event and die-off. And,
d. The only thing our governments (not us as individuals) can still do is slow, save, and salvage what we can to still prevent a global heating-driven near-total extinction event. To do this, they need to slow down the accelerating rise in global temperature from the rate that it is now. This will allow more of us to survive a little bit longer to get prepared. (On this page, you will find our Plan B for how to prepare for and adapt to the many consequences we can no longer change.)
Our organization, which has done over a decade of extensive research analysis on the global warming emergency and which has created this Doomsday Clock, has also aligned itself with the many climate scientists who have said we are well past the point of effectively stopping global warming from reaching a 2 degree Celcius increase. (On this page you will find the almost two dozen reasons why our organization now also believes that global warming has gone out of our reasonable control and that we will face unavoidable mass extinction with just a few decades.)
If that is our current position, it is only natural to wonder why we have also created and are promoting the Climate Change and Global Warming Doomsday Clock? The answer is simple.
We wanted to promote the extreme urgency of the global warming extinction emergency so that our governments finally begin to significantly reduce global fossil fuel use to at least slow down the current global warming acceleration curve enough to prevent a near-total extinction event. Also, if more people understand the urgency of our emergency, they also will do what they can to slow it down and, they will have more time to prepare for and adapt to the upcoming horrific global warming consequences. As this happens more of humanity and civilization can also survive longer and most importantly, we still have a chance to avoid near-total extinction. It is just that simple! (Click here to see the many effective government actions needed to slow down the near-total extinction nightmare so more of us can survive longer.
In every situation and in spite of all of the obstacles, the only way we save any part of a liveable future is to cut fossil fuel use to meet or get very close to the 2025 targets. These 2025 reductions will slow things down enough so that we have time to prepare, migrate, and adapt as well as possible.
No matter what, we must do whatever we can and make the best of a horrible escalating emergency that may already be out of our control for decades.
It's time to get started on the effective Job One for Humanity Plan to try to meet the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Start it today!
Now that you understand how bad things are, please help us get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction goals met by signing this global warming extinction emergency petition now. (It only takes a few minutes.)
About the Job One for Humanity nonprofit organization and climate analysis think tank
Job One for Humanity is a not-for-profit climate change think tank that provides a unique "big picture" and holistic view of the many inter-connected and inter-dependent climate systems creating our current climate change emergency. We analyze recent climate change research for errors, omissions, and unrecognized patterns across the many consequences, timeframes, and suggested remedies of the multiple systems involved in the climate change crisis.
Unlike other climate change educational organizations, we provide prioritized, time-accurate, and critical-path solutions to the climate change emergency. These solutions are based upon the most accurate global fossil fuel reduction targets and the most dangerous climate change and global warming tipping point deadlines we currently face.
Job One for Humanity is also an all-volunteer non-profit organization, which is very rare these days. Our volunteers are independent, self-organizing individuals who have a passion for fixing climate change before it is too late.
The core of our organization is made up of think tank climate research analysts who have also volunteered their time. In many ways, one could think of us as a crowd-sourced think tank. Our volunteers also self-organize and coordinate to handle our social media, marketing, research, events, and even accounting. Our volunteers do all of the blog postings as they have done for years.
Click here to see a useful profile of our members and the audience of visitors who will most benefit from our website.
In March of 2022, Job One For Humanity reviewed current climate science and updated its position on climate change. It concluded that a climate change-triggered extinction event of about half of humanity by mid-century is now unavoidable! This widespread mass extinction event will be caused by the primary and secondary climate change consequences described on this page.
This first extinction-level will result from mass starvation due to climate change-related crop failures, low crop yields, soaring food prices, and growing regional conflicts as tens of millions of starving climate refugees seek to find new homes to eat and survive.
Worse yet, if humanity does not get close to making the required radical global fossil fuel use reductions (as described in detail on this 2025 global targets page,) humanity will face the second extinction level of near-total extinction beginning as soon as 2070.
The above climate change facts are currently being censored or altered by the actions of powerful fossil fuel industry lobbyists upon the media and our governments. Yet, widely visible climate change consequences and current climate science-based predictions support the above statements as accurate.
We have had to update our mission goals because of the preceding and increasingly severe global climate change consequences. We have shifted to helping individuals, families, and businesses move to a higher focus on preparing, adapting, and building climate resilience and other kinds of resilience in all of their and our essential life-supporting systems.
Accordingly, we have updated our mission and goals to help individuals, families, and businesses to:
b. hard pressing our governments to radically cut global fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 global targets to slow down global climate change sufficiently so that more of humanity can live a little longer and more securely.
And, if by some very remote chance we can get close to meeting the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets,
c. we actively support the building of many sustainable urban and rural communities worldwide that:
1. might allow at least some small part of humanity to potentially survive through the coming climate-change-propelled global collapse, extinction, and potential rebirth cycle and process, and,
2. might learn from and apply the hard climate change and other economic and political consequences, which will happen to us because of the final consequences of our current highly unsustainable and inequitable lives.
Our future depends on how fast we fix climate change. Our next 3 to 9 years will determine the future survival of humanity. (If you would like to see the analysis of many factors that bought us to the realization that, at best, climate change is only 3-9 years away (2025-2031) from going out of our control for centuries to millennia, click here.)
We understand that the above is a distressing and problematic climate update. But, the good news is, if our governments mass mobilizes and gets us close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, we still will be able to save as much as half of humanity! We will also be able to save many of the plant and animal species and other living systems of our beautiful planet.
So, let's get busy and work together to save what we need to survive and what we dearly love.
Click here to see all of the reasons why a mass extinction event by mid-century is mathematically, economically, and politically unavoidable.)
Additional technical information to further prove to you that mass human extinction and economic, political and social chaos from the accelerating consequences of global warming will become reality within our lifetimes:
If you are interested in understanding the climate science and analysis procedures we used to present the above information, click here for a technical explanation of our climate research process.
Why we have failed to fix global warming for 60 years. (How fossil fuel-producing nations and fossil fuel industry lobbyists have "cooked the books" making us believe we were safe when we were not.)
Why carbon-sucking NETs won't save us in time.
If you still don't believe that once we go over the carbon 425-450 tipping point, we are basically locked into continually increasing temperatures for as much as the next 30-50 years, click here.
For those who may still believe that we can miss the last chance 2025 targets and still be safe, our organization has described what will happen in far greater detail than above in what we call, the 6 phase Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown. Click here to read the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown document.)
Click here to see where we are today on the Climate Change and Global Warming Doomsday Clock.
If You are Still Feeling Sad, Angry, or Anxious About Global Warming or hitting the 2025 Global Targets? Here is What to do next.
Click this link and start feeling better.
Please send this article to politicians and social media all over the world. Ask your politicians what they are doing to prevent the coming mass extinction of most of humanity by mid-century?
Ask them why they are not adequately managing the greatest threat multiplier and global problem amplifier of the 21st century by enacting the governmental steps described here!
Written by the research staff at Joboneforhumanity.org
Last updated 10.13.2022