In this age of global warming-aggravated extreme weather events, any rational individual or company will not want to invest in real estate in a location that will be regularly (or permanently) disabled by catastrophes like the hurricanes of Harvey, Irma, and Marie, or the wildfires of northern California that just burned over 6,000 structures. The shocking estimated recovery costs of these three hurricanes alone will run from one third to one half trillion dollars...
It is not just extreme weather events like these hurricanes and wildfires and their severe costs that will determine the best future locations to buy or sell real estate.
Unlike many of our climate denying politicians, smart real estate investors now understand that they must plan their future real estate investments only where the worst consequences of escalating global warming will be minimized. Smart real estate investors have also taken note that our military and intelligence agencies have repeatedly warned that escalating global warming has now become the greatest disrupter, threat, and risk multiplier of the 21st-century.
Because global warming has become the great disruptor of the 21st century, the minimal due diligence criteria and new rules for evaluating when and where to buy or sell real estate have now become:
Do not buy or own property in any millennial floodplains. Millennial floodplains are the newly calculated floodplain maps that most insurance agencies are rapidly creating and using to replace the no longer useful 100-year floodplain maps. We are now looking at super storms and other severe weather events that used to occur only several times per thousand years now occurring numerous times every decade. These millennial super storms are flooding completely new areas close to rivers and lakes. This new shift to using millennial floodplain maps also means that insurance companies will be raising rates for many of their millennial expanded floodplain customers or canceling others altogether. These new millennial floodplain maps will radically and suddenly affect real estate property values once they become public.
2.) Do not buy or own property in areas near forests because of increasing wildfire and smoke danger due to the escalating temperatures and increasing atmospheric heat turbulence (higher winds to fan and rapidly spread the fires).
3.) Do not buy or own property in areas projected to have regular “rain bombing” where a month’s or week’s worth of rain falls in a single day or several days and seriously floods inland areas never previously flooded in this way.
4.) Do not buy or own property in areas projected for global warming-intensified extended droughts because of life stifling heat and predicted massive water shortages.
5.) Do not buy or own property less than 25 feet above sea level if you are considering coastal areas. This new real estate investment rule will take a little technical explaining.
The carbon level in our atmosphere in parts per million is the single best and most accurate way to tell if we are making progress in reducing or slowing global warming. As of October 2017, we are at 409 carbon parts per million (ppm) with an average increase of 4 more carbon ppm each year.
As you can see in the carbon ppm graph below, by trend line, things are getting worse at an exponential rate!
At 409 carbon ppm, the stability of the bellwether West Antarctic ice sheet has already been breached and is now irreversible.
At the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, which we will hit in about 4-10 years, we will continue crossing more of the 11 critical global warming tipping points within the many systems and subsystems of the overall climate, but now at an even faster rate.
Moreover, once we cross the carbon 500 ppm threshold, projected around 2040 about 23 years or less from now, ALL ice and ALL glaciers on Earth will go into complete meltdown and the oceans will eventually rise by 70 meters (230 feet). This has happened repeatedly in Earth's geological history whenever carbon levels crossed this critical carbon 500 ppm threshold.
When we re-calculate sea level rise, which now will include crossing one or more of the 11 critical global warming tipping points, these new calculations and allowances predict as much as a 3 meter (10 foot) sea level rise by 2050. This is not the publically promoted three-foot sea level rise by 2100 put out by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unfortunately, the IPCC has repeatedly underestimated global warming impacts by 20 to 40% and has utterly failed to properly include calculations for crossing any of the significant global warming tipping points now in play.
This means that if you are planning to purchase any piece of real estate near sea level that you want it to be safe and the property to be viable past 2050, for a minimum level of sea level safety, the property would need to be 10 feet above sea level, plus the height of the local king tides and storm surges normal to that area, plus an extra safety measure to insure your real estate investment will be around for more than 50 years. (It is important to note that several times in Earth’s geologic history, sea levels have risen by 10 feet or more in as little as two decades after significant climate tipping points were crossed. It is not at all unprecedented to have significant sea level rises in brief periods of time once critical tipping points have been passed.)
The following graph will help illustrate the future problems of our currently rising carbon dioxide and carbon ppm levels in the atmosphere from a perspective of hundreds of thousands of years. As you can see in the last part of the graph, which has been broken out to better illustrate our last 1,000 years, it clearly shows we have entered a whole new range of increased atmospheric carbon risk and threat exposure.
For hundreds of thousands of years through various Ice Age cycles, we stayed below about 275 carbon ppmv. But since the beginning of our extensive use of fossil fuels starting with the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric carbon levels and average global temperatures have soared to levels we have not seen for millions of years!
Image via Robert A. Rohdes, Wikimedia commons.(Parts per million by volume [ppmv] includes other pollutants and trace greenhouse gases, such as methane.)
6.) Whenever possible, seek to locate significant real estate investments in areas near or above the 45th parallel north or near or below the 45th parallel south. In computer models these areas are projected to be the safest if they have adequate water and decent soils.
Ever-increasing heat, security issues, and the other global warming consequences like rain bombs, drought, massive crop failures and water shortages will continue to create a massive “climagee” (climate refugee) migration from the ever-expanding global warming crisis zones below the 45th parallel north.
These climagee migrations are predicted to begin in earnest from 2027 through 2040. They will involve first hundreds of millions and then billions of individuals as the catastrophic reality of escalating global warming wreaks havoc below the 45th parallel north and above the 45th parallel south and become undeniable to the majority of the world’s population. It is highly doubtful that real estate investments in zones that will be inundated with hundreds of millions of desperate climagees will be able to maintain their value.
7. Special warning: As more people recognize global warming location as the new big factor in property valuation and as more insurance companies raise rates and deny coverage in more global warming unsafe zones, real estate values will on average begin losing or gaining about 1% to 3% of their value each year depending upon whether you're in a global warming safe or unsafe location. In some global warming safe or unsafe zones, property values will soar or crash much faster. In spite of the difficulty of predicting exactly how much property values will rise or fall, with few exceptions, the more an area is recognized by more people and the insurance companies as a global warming unsafe area, the faster real estate property values will continue to drop and vice versa.
The escalating global warming emergency has forced the creation of new rules for the intelligent location of future real estate investment. Failure to include these minimal due diligence criteria in corporate real estate purchase evaluations will most likely expose those evaluators and companies to gross negligence lawsuits from angry shareholders or investors who experience the value of their properties ravaged by currently known global warming predictions and consequences.
Additionally, many in real estate and related industries are also beginning to take note of escalating global warming’s total broader economic impacts of on their nation’s GDP (gross domestic product) and, conversely, on their own future risks, markets, and bottom lines. The current predictions for how high the total annual global warming-related costs to nations around the world will rise, ranges from 5% of total gross domestic product (in the Stern report) to 10% of the total GDP (from the book Climate Shock) to up to 30% of the total GDP in escalating global warming’s final phases as described in the Climageddon Scenario in the new book Climageddon, The Global Warming Emergency and How to Survive It. It is not unreasonable to also project that similar GDP cost/loss annual operating percentages will eventually apply to the net incomes of those purchasing real estate in global warming high risk zones --- if they can still get insurance.
In conclusion, few knowledgeable individuals will want to live, work, or buy homes in any of the rapidly enlarging global warming unsafe zones. Global warming is quickly evolving the time-tested real estate value adage of “location, location, location” to “always purchase your real estate investments in global warming-safe locations.” If you are investing in global warming unsafe zones, get out before you start taking huge losses as more and more people recognize how escalating global warming will affect their real estate, future and finances.
Welcome to our brave new real estate world where chains of global warming-aggravated consequences endlessly increase in frequency, severity, scale, and cost...
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