Irreversible Global Warming Is Here Already!

You have seen the news in 2017 about global warming-aggravated weather, like hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Marie, the horrible wildfires in northern California and the west coast and the super storms in India and elsewhere in the world. Over the years our organization has repeatedly provided credible scientific data informing the public that until we reverse our suicidal fossil fuel burning habits, global warming-aggravated climate consequences (like what you are seeing more and more in the news,) will continue to increase in frequency, severity, and scale

We are now compelled to inform you of a new reality about global warming that you will hear first from our organization and a few other courageous global warming educational organizations. In our new book Climageddon, it was strongly suggested that global warming may already be irreversible due to new:

a. new climate research,

b. gross miscalculations by global warming authorities,

c. the continued increase in average global warming temperature and

d. the crossing of numerous bellwether global warming tipping points,

... our organization now holds that global warming has entered a state of irreversibility.

(Please keep in mind that irreversible global warming does not mean that everything is hopeless and that there is nothing we can still do to make a better future.)

We will tell you more about exactly what that means to your future, but first we must put this horrible news into an appropriate context to help you prepare to react and respond to it.

A useful more positive perspective and context necessary for dealing with this horrible news

Even though global warming has now reached irreversibility, we still have a significant amount of time left (about 10-15 years) to prepare, adapt and possibly migrate where appropriate to save most of humanity and our civilization. We still have lots of time to live meaningful and enjoyable lives.

In about 10 to 15 years the escalating consequences of global warming, the accumulating mass migrations of climagees (climate migrants,) and the global warming aggravated economic and political effects will have severe destabilizing impacts in almost all areas of the world, but only if you have not pre-prepared for what is coming both locally and nationally.

If we are smart and move quickly, we can also still reduce or slow some of the worst of the coming consequences to reduce global warming aggravated or caused suffering, financial losses and death. During this 10 to 15 year window to prepare, adapt or migrate we can still have control of a good portion of our lives, far longer than those individuals who deny, ignore or are unaware of this new reality that global warming is now irreversible.

Now that you have a helpful time and action context for digesting the shock of hearing we are already in a state of irreversible global warming, you are ready to learn about exactly what irreversible global warming means and how it will directly affect your future...

What is irreversible global warming and what does it mean to your future

Irreversible global warming describes both the process of the earth’s average global temperature continually increasing, as well as the distinct climate state created by the combination of increasing temperatures, crossed global warming tipping points, multiple self-reinforcing positive feedback loops and the many global warming caused consequences. These factors collectively cause the global climate to change until it reaches a new higher temperature that is irreversible in time scales far, far longer than the average human lifespan. 

At the minimum, the relative time frame for sequestering (removing) the carbon particles we are now adding to our atmosphere is centuries. This unfortunately means that long after we stop polluting our atmosphere with fossil fuels, the 20 most deadly consequences of those actions will last from centuries to thousands of years.

Why we have reached irreversible global warming

We are in this state of irreversible global warming because of: 

a. the gross miscalculations by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC).  

b. we have continuously failed to act effectively to either slow or reverse global warming. This is in spite of 30+ years of loud and detailed warnings by credible climate scientists, verified scientific research, and 22 international conferences on how to solve the global warming crisis.

c. the reality of the minimum time needed to convert all global fossil fuel energy generation systems to green energy generation systems (currently about 35-50 years).   

 

d. we have crossed many known and unknown global warming tipping points over the last 30 + years within relevant climate systems and subsystems. This process invariably condemns us to continue crossing even more dangerous known and unknown global warming tipping points at faster and faster rates years as we try to convert over to green energy generation systems and eliminate almost all fossil fuel use over the next 30-50 years.

Why understanding the fossil fuel carbon (Co2) pollution of our atmosphere is important to understanding irreversible global warming

  

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Viewing atmospheric carbon ppm measurements is the single best way to see both current and future global warming trends. Because of the laws of physics, if carbon keeps going up in the atmosphere, heat will increase. Despite what you hear in the media, we are not making atmospheric carbon reduction progress.

It is already terrible, and it is going to get much worse. 

As of October 2017, we have 404 carbon parts per million (ppm) in our atmosphere. Until 2016, we were creating an average increase of 3-4 or more carbon ppm each year. (October of 2016 carbon amounts were later adjusted down to carbon 402 ppm.)

There are also minor monthly variations in carbon ppm levels, as well cyclical weather variations due to things like El Nino or La Nina. In spite of such variations, the clearly dominant trend for the last 70 years is carbon ppm rising faster and faster.

At these current carbon levels, the stability of the bellwether West Antarctic ice sheet has already been breached and is now also irreversible. (The West Antarctic ice sheet is an excellent example of another critical global warming tipping point the world has hurdled past faster than anyone had foreseen.)

At the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold (which we will hit in about 4-10 years) we will continue crossing more of the 11 critical global warming tipping points within the climate’s many systems and subsystems, but at a faster rate!

Once we cross the carbon 500 ppm threshold ALL ice and ALL glaciers on Earth will go into complete meltdown and the oceans will eventually rise by 70 meters (230 feet). Crossing the carbon 500 ppm threshold has happened repeatedly in Earth's geological history.

When we did cross this carbon ppm level, sea level inevitably began it's rise to the 70 meters (230 feet) range. At our current annual carbon ppm emission rates we will reach the catastrophic carbon 500 ppm range in about two dozen years.

The initial temperature range associated with triggering irreversible global warming is an increase in average global temperature of about 2.2° to 4° Celsius (4°-7.2° Fahrenheit) which, unfortunately, is almost where we are now considering all other “already baked in” and unchangeable global warming temperature raising factors.

There is no way to fix our situation--only ways to survive it

At the present time, we are at the beginning stages of irreversible global warming because we also can’t stop carbon ppm levels from continuing to rise at about 3-4 ppm or more per year for at least another 30 - 50 years. This is due to the fact that we cannot quickly enough transform the world from being dependent upon dirty fossil fuel energy generation to employing clean green energy generation.

To better understand why we are already committed to irreversible global warming, it is important to look deeper into the term committed global warming. It means there is an already "baked-in" average global temperature increase between about 1.5° and 2.7° Celsius which the Earth has or will soon hit and that it too, will not change for centuries no matter what we do.

This is due in significant part to: 

a. the existing momentum of carbon ppm already in the atmosphere, 

b. the new carbon ppm per year that we will inevitably and invariably keep adding over the following 3-5 decades,

c. the already existing ocean warming,

d. the unknown crossed or soon to be crossed new global warming tipping points and,

e. the necessity of re-compensating mathematically for the grossly unrealistic calculations by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change based on their projections for a new “miracle technology” appearing in the second half of the 21st-century for the mass removal of carbon particles from the atmosphere. This new “miracle technology” that will save us at the last minute is a false hope and delusional groupthink distortion of the worst kind.  

False promises for a nonexistent "miracle technology" that can't save us in time

Unfortunately for us, it is this currently non-existent, earnestly wished for  “miracle technology” that the IPPC’s 2015 Paris Agreement calculations rely most heavily upon to keep our future average global temperature increases below their unachievable target of 2° Celsius by 2100. The mathematical, scientific, and mechanical feasibility (to adequately scale up the non-existent miracle technology) as well as the unknown negative side effects of this non-existent, “miracle technology” have already been debunked by respected climate scientists like Kevin Anderson. This nonexistent new technology will not reverse our current irreversible global warming emergency, no matter how many times famous billionaire techno-optimists like Bill Gates suggest we must believe and trust that it is coming.

The dangers of delusionary groupthink on our survival

Most unfortunately of all, instead of telling the people of the world the difficult and necessary truth that we must immediately and radically cut back on fossil fuel usage to save both ourselves and future generations, the 2015 IPCC Paris agreement instead signaled:

“Don't worry humanity, you don't have to give up any of your current comforts or, even make any immediate, difficult, or costly changes in your existing fossil fuel dependent lifestyles and business practices. A nonexistent new ‘miracle technology’ will magically appear sometime after 2050 which will allow us to suck all of those bad greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere and miraculously save us long after we have already gone way past any safe levels for fossil fuel emissions."

This type of delusional groupthink and reliance upon a magical and non existent miraculous new technology is only appropriate in children’s fairy tales—-never for vital scientific projections, particularly when those projections are the very projections which humanity and our civilization are relying upon for planning our future survival.

See the dangerous rise of human caused atmospheric carbon in parts per million (ppm) from a much longer historical perspective

The following graph will help illustrate the rising potentials of future problems of our currently rising carbon dioxide and carbon ppm levels in the atmosphere from a perspective of hundreds of thousands of years. As you can see in the last part of the graph, which has been broken out in the smaller yellow box to better illustrate our last 1,000 years, it clearly shows we have entered a whole new range of increased atmospheric carbon risk and threat exposure. We have gone from Ice Age long term cyclical carbon ppm highs of about carbon 275 ppm to over carbon 400 ppm.

 

CO2_400kyr.png

Image via Robert A. Rohdes, Wikimedia commons.(Parts per million by volume [ppmv] includes other pollutants and trace greenhouse gases, such as methane.)

 

For hundreds of thousands of years through the various Ice Age cycles, we always stayed below the human civilization safe level of about 275 carbon parts per million by volume (ppmv). But, since the beginning of our use of fossil fuels starting with the advent of the Industrial Revolution, average global temperatures have soared to levels we have not seen for millions of years (about 1.5° to about 2.7° Celsius) and atmospheric carbon levels have soared to 409 ppm today.

This is very bad for our futures and our civilization because as mentioned above, in 4 to 10 years, carbon ppm in the atmosphere will reach 425 to 450 ppm. This is roughly double the previous civilization safe highest Ice Age cyclical averagepoint of about carbon 275 ppm for the last 400,000 years. 

How long will it take for irreversible global warming to become reversible

If the world was currently committed to focusing every resource on the global warming emergency in the greatest mobilization in human history, it would still take at least 30 to 50 years to replace our current fossil fuel energy generation infrastructure with green energy generation infrastructure. Unfortunately, we will still run out of time. By 2047-2067, we will have reached the carbon 500 ppm level and all ice on earth will have begun melting.

This 30-50 year delay has additional dangers. Within that timeframe, we will cross more and more tipping points, which will most likely result in a cascading climate meltdown the planet will be unable to recover from for thousands of years thousands of years. (Please see the new book Climageddon for all the details on this Climageddon Scenario meltdown and why crossing global warming crossing tipping points is so difficult to nearly impossible to recover from.)

The preceding overview means that it is highly likely that even if we halted all fossil fuel use in 30 to 50 years, various climate systems and subsystems will still continue in a positive feedback loop of ever-increasing average global temperature. To lower the world's average global temperature and carbon levels to the relatively safe levels (carbon 350 ppm), one or more of the following things must happen:

1. While we scale up green energy generation, we must radically cut fossil fuel use by 90 to 95% so there are only a few remaining minor essential medical and chemical uses for fossil fuels. Getting to net carbon neutral (no additional carbon going into the atmosphere each year,) by itself will not work because of committed warming. There is so much carbon already in the atmosphere that even when we finally take this extinction level threat seriously and radically cut all global fossil fuel use, we will still be at unsafe levels. 

2. If we can't scale up green energy generation fast enough to replace fossil fuel energy generation, we will have to allow the world's economy to go into a steep recession, depression, and possible total collapse as a last resort to save humanity and the future. Fossil fuel use is directly linked to economic productivity in our existing global infrastructure. If the economy crashes, there will be much less fossil fuel use. (This is called the Garret paradox and is also covered in Climageddon.)

3. if we are not able to successfully accomplish either of these two painful and costly options, the other most probable way that we will curtail our fossil for use is through a massive die off of 70 to 90% of the human population. This will occur in part due to massive crop failures and starvation linked to soaring global warming temperatures. As first hundreds of millions then eventually billions will die of starvation and finally fossil fuel use will drop radically and this will be what will be “the last resort” that may save us in the end. But remember even if this happens, it will still take centuries to thousands of years before the planet recovers from what we have done to it.

If we have any hope of survival for ourselves and our children, there is simply no avoiding the immediate, painful, and costly process of radically reducing our fossil fuel use.

In summary

When the public takes into account all of the above facts concerning the causes and conditions behind the new irreversible global warming reality, particularly that we are already doomed to cross the carbon 500 ppm level which will trigger a complete loss of ALL ice and glaciers on the planet and many more global warming tipping points being crossed, critical-thinking individuals and organizations will agree that we have, in fact, already entered a new state of irreversible global warming.

Even more unfortunately, that also condemns us to endless chains of catastrophic and extinction potential consequences growing in frequency, severity and scale across climate, human and ecological systems. 

Want critical information on how you can protect your family, business and nation from the looming global warming catastrophes? 

Click here now.

Want more information on the causes and what to do about irreversible global warming?

Many of the gross miscalculations by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as well as the other key factors that helped bring about today's state of irreversible global warming have been described in the new book Climageddon.

Keeping this bad news about irreversible global warming in perspective

Because of the arrival of this new state of irreversible global warming, the processes for our extinction have accelerated. In spite of this bad news, keep in mind that if we are able to honestly face this new level degree of threat and act now, we still have time to prepare, adapt and save most of humanity and its achievements. Moreover, we can also continue to live meaningful and enjoyable lives!

(Please note: Although this painful information is still not widely known, there are now many more other non-profit organizations and climate scientists privately acknowledging that global warming has in fact, become irreversible.) 

 

 


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David Pike, Editor