Why global warming is now irreversible for at least 50 more years and what this means to your future

(Special Note to the readers of this page: The following materials will cause most people to initially react with adamant denial. If you keep exploring the documented facts below you will eventually become very angry at how could this ever be allowed to happen. If you courageously continue processing the facts below, you will most likely enter into a bargaining phase to find some kind of a way for dealing with this highly disruptive information.

If you continue to research and verify what you will soon be reading, you will most likely next enter into a transitional, but deep feeling of grief. As you finally work your way through this grief, you will eventually come into a level of acceptance of what is actually accurate. Once you reach some level of acceptance of the following information, you are finally ready to begin adapting to this information and, depending upon your current location, making the best of what time, stability and normalcy you have remaining before the next larger global warming catastrophe hits. (More will be said about this emotional reaction and healing process to what you are about to read at the very end of this page.)

 

"You cannot be called an alarmist if there really is something to be alarmed about." Unknown

Many have seen the news about global warming-aggravated (aka climate change,) weather, like hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Marie, the horrible wildfires and mudslides in northern California, along the U.S. west coast and in Europe, the "worst in centuries" droughts and dust storms all over the world, the super storms in India and the rain bombs worldwide where weeks or months worth of rain falls in a few hours or a few days. 

Many of you already know that something bad is happening and getting worse. The Job One for Humanity nonprofit organization has repeatedly provided credible scientific data which proves that until we reverse our suicidal fossil fuel burning habits, the 20 worst global warming-aggravated climate consequences will continue to increase in frequency, severity, and scale. 

 

We are now compelled to inform you of a new reality about global warming that you will hear first from our organization and a few other courageous global warming educational organizations. (If you do not understand what global warming is or how greenhouse gasses such as carbon and methane cause it, please click here for a short illustrated explanation before continuing reading.)

In the new book Climageddon, it was stated that if we were very, very lucky, global warming may not become irreversible. One year after our book's publication we now know differently.

Here are the tough new facts that will answer all of your questions about our new condition of irreversible global warming that will last for at least the next 50 years (or more.)

Why global warming is irreversible and basically uncontrollable for at least the next 50+ years.

Irreversible global warming is due in significant part to the following factors:

1. We are not making anything even close to the needed and required radical cuts in our fossil fuel use to reduce the carbon going into our atmosphere. This means we will not be able to prevent massive global temperature increases, horrendous climate calamities, and near extinction far sooner than imagined.

A 2017 paper in Science lead-authored by Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, concluded that all global carbon emissions would have to be cut in half by 2020, then cut in half again by 2030, and then cut in half again each decade out to 2050 to keep us safe. This means that In order for us to keep global temperature anywhere even close to levels where most of humanity can survive, fossil fuel emissions need to be slashed by about 75 percent by 2030, and by nearly 95 percent by 2050 to stay within a safe climate zone.

To grasp how difficult these cuts will be, imagine that in the next three years you personally will have to cut all of your home, auto, and business uses of fossil fuels by 50%, then cut another 50% from that point within the next 10 years and then cut another 50% in each of the following decades. Citizens of the world who did not fully understand both the urgency and critical importance of why they needed to make these radical, immediate and painful sacrifices would literally throw any politician out of office or would even overthrow any government that tried to enforce these kinds of radical energy and fossil fuel usage cuts to their comfortable or even subsistence level lifestyles and livelihoods. (See current atmospheric carbon graphs for our fossil fuel use further below.)

2. There is no international consensus or agreement for the critical fossil fuel reduction levels actually needed. There is also no real verification or enforcement of our existing international agreements (which currently do not require anything even close to the critically needed fossil fuel use reductions.) The required levels for the radical reduction of our global fossil fuel use might only occur if there was a complete and total governmental commitment and immediate mass mobilization by all the nations of the world to begin radically cutting all fossil fuel use by the percentages listed above. 

Because there is no such international fossil fuel reductions agreement among governments or any mass mobilization by governments, (and there is likely not to be for many decades,) at the minimum, this means that we will be adding additional carbon into the atmosphere at our current average annual rate of about three or more parts per million (ppm) per year for about the next 50 + years and probably much longer. (See fossil fuel use atmospheric carbon graph further below and imagine another 150 carbon ppm points added over the next 50 years.)

3. It is highly improbable we will ever make the critically needed cuts to our fossil fuel use in time to save ourselves. There are several reasons for this. One is that each year we continue to delay in making the needed radical fossil fuel usage cuts means that any future cuts will need to be even more extreme, which makes them even less likely to be done because of the even more severe economic and other hardships that they will impose globally. The other major reason it is unlikely we will make the needed cuts soon enough to save ourselves is because of what is called Garrett's Global Warming Dilemma. 

This research states that because of the laws of physics and mathematics, almost all of our fossil fuel based global economy must first collapse in a necessary and steep global recession or global depression in order to produce the required cuts in our fossil fuel use to save humanity in time. This well-documented climate research by Professor Garrett is the research most often ignored by environmental groups around the world because it produces a horrible dilemma for which either answer is unthinkable as well as un-sellable.

Because of this dilemma, and because there is no public or political will to create a severe, but necessary global recession or depression to reduce fossil fuel use, environmental groups hide this critical research away and ignore it like dirty laundry. Because of the preceding factors, it is hard to imagine that fossil fuels use will ever be cut to anything close to the critical levels needed, until we are faced with truly massive global financial losses and billions dead and suffering. By that time, the worst consequences and higher temperatures of global warming will be irreversible for timescales far, far beyond the human lifespan. (if you're a science person, please click here and read a summary of Prof. Garrett's alarming research on atmospheric carbon, global warming, and the necessary fossil fuel reductions we must make to save the future.)

4. The projected new length of time it will take to move away from global fossil fuel energy generation to green energy generation to replace it. It is now estimated to take about 400 years to fully scale up green energy generation to replace all fossil fuel energy generation and uses. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) just published a new article where they lay out where are we currently in green energy development and why it will take us about 400 years to replace all fossil fuel energy generation with green energy generation. This means that any realistic hope we had for a fast transition in less than 50-100+ years to green energy generation to replace fossil fuel energy generation is unrealistic.

5. New technologies will not save us in time. Some of you may hear this very difficult irreversible global warming news and will immediately think, "aren't they working on inventions it will suck the fossil fuel burning carbon particles out of the atmosphere in time to save us." If you're thinking that this is our easy out and easy solution to continue our fossil fuel burning "business as usual," please click here and read why this currently nonexistent carbon capture technology is a silicon valley techno-optimism delusion and illusion that not only can't save us in time but also is a mathematical and physical impossibility being forwarded by impatient entrepreneurs and mechanical engineers looking to make billions on the greatest catastrophe of human history. 

6. A seemingly unstoppable increase in average global warming temperature. Because of the laws of physics concerning adding additional key atmospheric greenhouse gases like carbon, global temperature will continue to rise as we continue adding more carbon particles into the atmosphere from our fossil fuel use. Adding an additional three or more carbon ppm per year as we are doing now for the next 50 or more years also does not include any additional calculations or the carbon ppm amounts for the additional energy use of the human population soaring from 7 to 14 billion people during this period or, that many more people from the developing world will move into the middle class demanding the same high carbon fossil fuel use comforts of the developed world. This near doubling of population and the huge increase in new middle-class energy demand of itself could increase current fossil fuel use an atmospheric carbon pollution by another 25 to 40%!

When you look down the road 50 years from now and add the additional unavoidable 150 carbon parts per million (ppm) [50 x 3 carbon ppm] to our May 2018 current carbon 411 ppm total, (also see graph further below,) it is easy to see there is no way for us to keep from crossing the carbon 550+ ppm near extinction level. (More will be disclosed further below about the shocking and lasting effects of what atmospheric carbon levels at or above the carbon 500 ppm or carbon 600 ppm level will mean for our future temperatures and consequences.) 

7. The steady rise of methane in the atmosphere from new releases of methane from increased fracking, melting permafrost, and leaking natural gas lines. (Methane is about 86 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon to increase global warming. There is also a concerted effort by the fracking industry to prevent the accurate measurement of methane in the atmosphere and keep the ominous growing total methane release amounts hidden from the public.) When you add in the effects of methane (measured in part as C02e,) for raising our temperature along with the effects of carbon, we are probably already well above our current carbon 411 ppm. Please take a look at the following methane graph.

8. Both the recent and the projected additional future crossings of many other new global warming tipping points, positive feedback loops and points of no return within the climate system. (Click here if you do not know the 11 key global warming tipping points and what it will mean if they are crossed.)

9. The gross miscalculations of current global warming consequence timetables.  When leading climate authorities like the IPCC miscalculate where we are now in the global warming emergency by 25 to 40%, it causes the public to underestimate our current global warming status and condition. We do not realize that things today are much worse than we are being told. Because of this, we think it's going to be much worse, much later and therefore, we mentally start with the wrong global warming emergency starting point. To see how bad this is and how these gross miscalculations occurred by our current global warming authorities, click here.

10. The soon to be crossed near final and final catastrophic global warming tipping point carbon ppm levels of carbon 500 and 600 ppm. (Described further below.)

11. The other new climate research as found in the climate literature, further down this page, on this website, in our blog and in the new book Climageddon.

Because of the above and other factors discussed below, global warming in practical terms of its ultimate consequences upon humanity has, in fact, already entered a dangerous state of irreversibility for at least the next 50 + years or more. Unfortunately, there is worse news. Current research shows it will take from centuries to thousands of years to restore earth's temperature and climate balance, but only once we have finally stopped adding more carbon particles to the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning. That means whatever level of temperature we "cook" into the system within the next 50 or more years will make life a living hell for centuries to thousands of years to come for everyone who comes behind us.

Please also keep in mind that irreversible global warming does not mean everything is hopeless and there is nothing we can do to slow lessen or make a better future. Do not be discouraged. There is much we can still do. 

As you continue reading you will learn more about both the positive things about this global warming emergency and what our current state of irreversible global warming is and what it means to your future. At the bottom of this page, we will provide links to additional detailed information on how you can prepare, adapt and protect your family, assets, business, and nation from the even greater global warming catastrophes that will be soon arriving. But first, we are obligated to put this horrible news that we have already entered a state of irreversible global warming for at least the next 50 years into a more appropriate context to help you understand and respond to it.

What at least 50 more years of increasing global warming means to your future safety and security

Carbon is the current key greenhouse gas in raising the average global temperature. The carbon level in the atmosphere measured in parts per million (ppm) comes significantly from our burning of fossil fuels. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, most of this atmospheric carbon has been caused by fossil fuel burning.

Because of the known effects of greenhouse gases like carbon, an increasing carbon ppm level in our atmosphere is one of the best, if not the best predictor of future global warming temperature increases. On the average, over the last 60 years, for every additional 25 PPM of carbon that goes into the atmosphere, our average global temperature goes up .5 degrees Fahrenheit or about .25 degrees C.

Understanding the coming major consequence trigger levels for our atmospheric carbon levels is how the people and nations of the world will manage its future safety and security. The following will help you understand these major atmospheric carbon consequence trigger levels coming up.

As of May 2018, we have 411 parts per million (ppm) of carbon in our atmosphere. On the average, over the last 6 decades, we are adding about an increase of 3 + new carbon ppm in the atmosphere each year.

If you look at the trendline on the graph below, you can clearly see we are in serious trouble! In spite of everything you are hearing about all we are doing to reduce global warming over the past 30+ years, from the graph below you can clearly see that global warming from increased atmospheric carbon is not only continuing to get worse, it is getting worse at an even faster rate. 

There are minor monthly variations in carbon ppm levels from year to year, as well as cyclical weather variations due to things like El Nino or La Nina. In spite of such normal carbon ppm variations, the clearly dominant trend shown above for the last 70 years is carbon ppm rising faster and faster.

At just these current carbon levels, the stability of the bellwether West Antarctic ice sheet has already been breached and this ice loss is now irreversible. (The West Antarctic ice sheet is an excellent example of another critical global warming tipping point the world has hurdled past far faster than anyone had predicted or foreseen.)

At the current carbon level and as it rises we will continue crossing more of the 11 critical global warming tipping points within the climate’s many systems and subsystems, but now at an even faster rate. Once we cross the carbon 500 ppm level, as soon as 2042-2067 or earlier, ALL ice and ALL glaciers on Earth will go into complete meltdown!

Crossing the carbon 500 ppm threshold has, in fact, happened repeatedly in Earth's geological history. When this has occurred, the sea level inevitably rose to the 70 meters (230 feet) range. At our current annual carbon ppm emission rates, we will reach this catastrophic carbon 500 ppm range. 

If we cross that final battle line by passing the atmospheric carbon level of 500 parts per million (ppm), our average global temperature will soar to 4°C (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit). At 4°C, a large portion of humanity (hundreds of millions to billions) will die of starvation (or of increased heat's other related consequences) and, governments and society will collapse in many areas of the world between the 35th parallel north and the 35th parallel south.

Even though it will take many centuries for the seas to rise 230 feet, there will still be sea level rise spurts within those centuries where sea level rise 10 feet or more in just a few decades as it has also done repeatedly in Earth's past. 

Take a moment to visualize the seas eventually rising 230 feet and what this will mean to the generations that follow us. Take a moment to visualize massive crop failures around the world because of the increased heat and the consequent mass suffering of slow starvation if we pass the carbon 500 ppm level. 

Unfortunately, this is not even the worst case problems we will soon be facing on the slippery steep slope of carbon 500 ppm. If we cross the carbon 500 ppm battle line, it is also highly probable we will quickly reach carbon 600 ppm level within another 25-30 years.

This new carbon 600 ppm level will raise the average global temperature to 5°C (9 degrees Fahrenheit) and bring about additional massive methane releases from ocean coastal shelves and permafrost. Because methane is 86 times more potent than carbon as a greenhouse gas, this will once again rapidly spike average global temperatures and bring about the extinction of most of humanity and the end of civilization as we know it. Several past mass extinction events possibly linked in this way to ocean coastal shelves suddenly releasing methane clathrate are the Permian-Triassic extinction event and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

When we reach carbon 500 ppm in about another 20 years or carbon 600 ppm about 25 to 30 years after that as soon as 2063-2072 or earlier, we will greatly accelerate the process of crossing more global warming tipping points. This will further spike average global temperature. At 5°C and above, a large portion of humanity (7 billion plus,) will die of starvation (or of increased heat's other related consequences) and, governments and society will collapse in many areas of the world now expanded between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south. As we reach the carbon 500 ppm and carbon 600 ppm levels, we will also cross into the later and most dangerous phases of the Climageddon Scenario end-of-the-world climate model (described in the new Climageddon book.) with all of its related unconscionable consequences.

Take a moment and think about the reality that at carbon 600 ppm as soon as 2063-2072. or earlier, we trigger the final processes that will bring about the extinction of 70 to 90% of humanity if not more. At this carbon level, civilization will also collapse and the unlucky survivors will enter into an ecological and climate hell and social dark age that will make the survivors of the following centuries wish they were dead.

As see if the above was not bad enough, there are several additional factors that need to be considered in the nightmare global warming Climageddon Scenario we are now all facing. At the minimum, the relative time frame for removing (sequestering) the carbon particles we are currently adding to our atmosphere is centuries to thousands of years. This means that long, long after we stop polluting our atmosphere with fossil fuels, the two carbon 500 ppm and 600 ppm near-final and final catastrophic tipping points discussed above and many of the other 20 most deadly consequences of those actions and global warming will last for many, many generations. Both we and future generations will suffer dearly for our failures to address and resolve this emergency now.

(Please note: There are numerous climate scientists who believe that crossing carbon 500 ppm is inevitable because of the 11 system failure points covered on the top of this page, not to mention the numerous other global warming positive feedback loops and tipping points. They believe that no matter what we do, we have already missed our window of opportunity and once we have crossed the carbon 500 ppm level, we will not be able to keep from reaching carbon 800 ppm (the near-final phase of the Climageddon Scenario. Our organization does not hold this to be settled scientific truth. If we did, there would be nothing that we could do to avoid mass extinction. Our reading of the current science indicates that there is still a reasonable but unfortunately, very small chance [about 10%,] that we can prevent crossing the carbon 600 ppm final catastrophic tipping point (using the actions described in part three of the Job One Plan,) or at least, we can slow and lessen the consequences until we do cross the carbon 600 ppm level so more of us and survive longer. While the probability of us preventing crossing the carbon 600 ppm level is very low, the probability that we can at least temporarily slow and lessen the many unavoidable coming consequences is quite good, about 50% or better.)

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Viewing the dangerous rise of human-caused atmospheric carbon in parts per million (ppm) from a historical perspective

The following graph will help illustrate what will happen to our carbon ppm levels in the future from a perspective of hundreds of thousands of years. As you can see in the last part of the graph, which has been broken out in the smaller yellow box to better illustrate the last 1,000 years, it clearly shows we have entered a whole new much higher range of increased atmospheric carbon risk and threat exposure. We have deviated from Ice Age long-term cyclical carbon ppm highs of about carbon 275 ppm to over carbon 400 ppm. (As of May 2018 we are at about carbon 411 ppm.)

CO2_400kyr.png

Image via Robert A. Rohdes, Wikimedia Commons. (Parts per million by volume [ppmv] includes other pollutants and trace greenhouse gases, such as methane.)

For hundreds of thousands of years, we always stayed below 275 carbon parts per million by volume (ppmv)--the range conducive for human life. But with the advent of the Industrial Revolution and fossil fuel use, average global temperatures and carbon ppm have soared to levels unseen for millions of years (about 1.5° to about 2.7° Celsius.

This is very bad for our future and our civilization because carbon 425 to 450 ppm is roughly double the previous civilization safe highest Ice Age cyclical average point of about carbon 275 ppm for the last 400,000 years. At this 425-450 ppm level, we will be crossing more global warming tipping points at a faster and faster rate.

What are the timetables for the worst of the global warming consequences?

How fast it gets worse from where we are today and how much time we have left before the worst of the 20 major coming consequences global warming consequences begin to directly or indirectly affect you, your family, business or nation depends completely on your current location. In fact, some of you around the world are experiencing many severe consequences already.

In about 10 to 15 years, the escalating 20 major consequences of global warming, the accumulating mass migrations of climagees (climate migrants), and the global warming aggravated economic, ecological, political, and societal effects will have increasingly severe and destabilizing impacts in almost all areas of the world. Most importantly, if we are smart and move quickly, we can also still slow and lessen some of the worst of the 20 major coming consequences.

Global warming consequence severity will increase rapidly within the next 5-10 years in the areas between the 25th parallel north and the 25th parallel south. Within the next 10 to 15 years, the areas of increasing consequences severity will generally expand throughout the areas between the 35th parallel north and the 35th parallel south. Within 15 to 25+ years, life will more regularly bebecome unbearably chaotic and unstable for those unfortunate individuals and businesses still trying to live and operate below the 45th parallel north or the 45th parallel south.

The key factors that will drive these mass migrations will be, crop failures and starvation because of increased heat and drought, sea level rise, crashing property values in unsafe zones, soaring property values in safer zones, breakdown of law and order, increased resource conflict and war, wildfires, rain bombs and other types of severe storms and other major global warming consequence increasing in frequency, severity, and scale.

Depending on your current and ultimate location, financial loss and death tolls from global warming-related catastrophes will continue to rise steadily until we reached what we call the last phases of the Climageddon Scenario. This is where as much as 70-90% of the world's total population will die within as little as 30-50 years. This will occur primarily because of more crossed tipping points as well as starvation, migration wars, civil unrest and many of the other 20 worst global warming consequences. 

During this remaining time window to prepare, adapt, or migrate, we will still have control of a good portion of our lives, far longer than those individuals who deny, ignore or are unaware of the new reality that global warming has become irreversible for at least the next 50 years that would work. Now that you have a useful positive perspective and relevant developmental time window for our global warming emergency, you are ready to learn about exactly what irreversible global warming is as well as how it will inescapably adversely affect your future, family, finances and nation, and what you can still do about it.

At the end of this document, you will finally find some good news and other surprise benefits that will also help you maintain a positive "bigger picture" context for the incredibly difficult situation we find ourselves in now that global warming has become irreversible (as described below.) The materials below on why global warming is now irreversible will also help you understand the other longer-term critical global warming emergency time frames and critical junctures that are unfolding as you read this and that will have powerful and catastrophic effects on our ecological, economic, personal and political futures.

How long will it take for irreversible global warming to become reversible

The preceding overview means that it is highly likely various climate systems and subsystems will still continue in a positive feedback loop of ever-increasing average global temperature. Consequently, because of all of the factors discussed above this point we are, in fact, already in an uncontrollable cycle of irreversible global warming for at least another 50 years with more unavoidable catastrophes coming soon that will occur at a greater severity, frequency and scale no matter what we do!

Keep in mind that as the temperature continues to rise, we will always cross more tipping points faster and faster, which will result in faster and faster even spiking increases in average global temperatures and a cascading climate meltdown. (Please see the new book Climageddon for all the details on exact Climageddon Scenario meltdown.)

Additionally, it is wise to remember that at the minimum, the relative time frame for removing (sequestering) the carbon ppm particles we are currently adding to our atmosphere is centuries to thousands of years. This means that long, long after we stop actively polluting our atmosphere with fossil fuels (at least 50 years from now,) the 20 most deadly consequences of those actions will last for many, many generations.

What needs to happen to save the your future and the future of humanity and our civilization?

As you can see from the first carbon ppm graph on this page, we are not making anything even close to the required radical cuts in our fossil fuel use to reduce the carbon going into our atmosphere. To make the necessary fossil fuel use cuts, all global carbon emissions would have to be cut in half by 2020, then cut in half again by 2030, and then cut in half again each decade out to 2050 to keep us safe and hopefully keep us from crossing the 500 and 600 carbon ppm levels with their unthinkable consequences. This means that in order for us to keep global temperature anywhere even close to levels where most of humanity can survive, fossil fuel emissions need to be slashed by about 75 percent by 2030, and by nearly 95 percent by 2050 to stay within a safe climate zone. (From a 2017 paper in Science lead-authored by Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.)

These are the real fossil fuel use needed reduction numbers and not the grossly miscalculated and misleading reduction numbers better forwarded by the IPCC and most governments of the world. We are not making anything even close to these levels of extinction prevention fossil fuel cuts! 

To grasp how difficult these cuts will be, imagine that in the next three years you personally will have to cut all of your home (appliance and heating/cooling etc use,) auto, plane and other travel that uses fossil fuels as well as all business activities that use fossil fuels by 50%, then cut another 50% from that point within the next 10 years and then cut another 50% in each of the following decades. Now imagine everyone else doing this all across the planet.

Are you doing this? Does that seem likely or possible to you that you would voluntarily so change your normal life so fast? Do you see the governments of the world coming together and passing the laws and the enforceable punishments necessary to make sure these cuts actually occur?

It is more likely that the citizens of the world who did not fully understand both the urgency and critical importance of why they needed to make these radical, immediate and painful sacrifices would literally throw any politician out of office or would even overthrow any government that tried to enforce these kinds of radical energy and fossil fuel usage cuts to their comfortable or even subsistence level lifestyles and livelihoods?

Now imagine all of the individuals, corporations and government's that depend upon fossil fuel use and sales directly or indirectly seeing their livelihoods disappear by 50% in the next two years and then drop another 10% every decade until eventually their industries no longer exist. How much of a fight and a global disinformation program would those individuals, industries, and nations create and put up to preserve their often luxurious livelihoods and their futures? What would the fossil fuel industry be capable of doing to preserve a $28 trillion year market segment? How far would they go to preserve their one-third piece of the world's total gross domestic product (GDP) in what they would have to see as a life and death struggle?

If you're a pragmatist, this and the other 10 reasons we will not be able to stop escalating global warming for at least another 50 years, means we will not be able to prevent massive global temperature increases, horrendous climate calamities, and near extinction (or extinction) of humanity far sooner than imagined.

This means that we have already passed the point of being able to control rising global warming as well as all of its related unavoidable and unthinkable consequences for at least another 50 years unless we can immediately radically cut our fossil fuel use by the required percentages described above. But can we really make those life-critical cuts in time?

If your pragmatist, you will most likely believe that it is highly improbable we will ever make the critically needed cuts to our fossil fuel usage in time to save ourselves. There are several reasons you are most probably correct.

One is that each year we continue to delay in making the needed radical fossil fuel usage cuts means that any future cuts will need to be even more extreme, which makes them even less likely to be done because of the even more severe hardships that they will impose globally.

The other major reason it is unlikely we will make the needed cuts soon enough to save ourselves is because of what is called Garrett's Global Warming Dilemma. This research states that because of the laws of physics and mathematics, almost all of our fossil fuel based global economy must first collapse in a necessary and steep global recession or global depression in order to produce the required cuts in our fossil fuel use to save humanity in time. This well-documented climate research by Professor Garrett is the research most often ignored by environmental groups around the world because it produces a horrible dilemma for which either answer is unthinkable as well as un-sellable.

Because of this dilemma, and because there is no public or political will to create a severe, but necessary severe global recession or depression to reduce fossil fuel use, environmental groups hide this critical research away and ignore it like dirty laundry. Because of the preceding factors, it is hard to imagine that fossil fuels use will ever be cut to anything close to the critical levels needed, until we are faced with truly massive global financial losses and billions dead and suffering.

By that time about 30-50 years from now, the worst consequences and higher temperatures of global warming will be irreversible for timescales far, far beyond the human lifespan. (if you're a science person, please click here and read a summary of Prof. Garrett's alarming research on atmospheric carbon, global warming, and the necessary fossil fuel reductions we must make to save the future.)

If you are a pragmatist and a mature adult, at this point you realize that for all intents and purposes, we have already crossed the point of no return for at least the next 50 years or so and, what we must do now is limit the total damages by preparing for and adapting to what we cannot avoid. Depending upon your location, for the next 5 to 15 years, you should still be able to can fill your life with as much joy and satisfaction as is possible. The time to enjoy what remains of the quality of your existing life is now because escalating global warming is going to make life progressively worse faster and faster. 

We can still hope that we will slow and lessen what is coming just enough so that some of humanity and civilization will survive in the global warming safe zones of the future. There is also another very dark possibility that will allow some of us to survive.

If we do not successfully either radically cut fossil fuel use by the percentages listed above or allow the world economy to go into a severe recession or depression, the other most probable way that we will finally and successfully curtail our fossil for use is through a massive die-off of 70 to 90% of the human population. This will occur in part due to massive crop failures, starvation and the chaos linked to soaring global warming temperatures.

As billions die of starvation, or in migration and resource wars or because of the other worst consequences of global warming, fossil fuel use will drop radically in what may be the dark "last resort solution” that saves us in the end. But remember: even if this happens, it will still take centuries to thousands of years before the average global temperature and the planet recovers from what we have done to it. Survivors will be living a nightmare of high temperatures, extreme weather and chains of other consequences we can barely envision.

There is no escape. In every situation, the only way we save the future is radically cut fossil fuel use. Also, in all of the above-discussed situations, no matter what, we must do what we can and make the best of a horrible situation.

We need to come together immediately and get very busy with what we still can do! Those specific "must do" actions are described farther down this page in a section called, what you can do today to prepare for, adapt to and, slow and lessen this global warming emergency

So, when will our escalating and irreversible global warming finally end and our climate return to normal?

Nature has an amazing ability to heal itself over time. In case you're wondering, to lower the world's average global temperature and atmospheric carbon levels to the relatively safe levels (from carbon 270-350 ppm), one or more of the following things must happen:

  1. While we scale up green energy generation over the next 100 plus years, we must radically cut fossil fuel use by at least 95% by 2050 so there are only a few remaining minor essential medical and chemical uses for fossil fuels. Getting to net carbon neutral (no additional carbon going into the atmosphere each year) by itself will not work because of already committed warming. Because there is so much carbon already in the atmosphere that even when we finally take this extinction level threat seriously and radically cut all global fossil fuel use, we will still be at unsafe levels for a long, long time.
  2. Because we can't scale up green energy generation fast enough to replace fossil fuel energy generation, we will have to allow the world's economy to go into a steep recession, depression, and possible total collapse as the last resort to save humanity and the future. Fossil fuel use is directly linked to economic productivity in our existing global infrastructure. If the economy crashes, there will be much less fossil fuel use and things will rebalance over the following centuries. (For more information on this, see Garrett's Global Warming Dilemma.) 
  3. If we do not successfully accomplish either of these two painful and costly options, the other most probable way that we will curtail our fossil for use is through a massive die-off of 70 to 90% of the human population. This will occur in part due to massive crop failures and starvation linked to soaring global warming temperatures. As billions die of starvation and migration wars, fossil fuel use will drop radically in what may be “another last resort solution” that saves us in the end. But remember: even if this happens, it will still take centuries to thousands of years before the average global temperature and the planet recovers from what we have done to it.

If we have any hope of survival for ourselves and our children, there is simply no avoiding the immediate, painful, and costly process of radically reducing our fossil fuel use and executing all of the parts of the Job One Plan to adapt to global warming.

More about irreversible global warming and what it will mean to our future?

Irreversible global warming also describes the process of the earth’s average global temperature increasing or being maintained at an unsafe level over extended periods of time far longer than multiple human lifespans. At the minimum, the relative time frame for removing (sequestering) the carbon particles we are currently adding to our atmosphere is centuries to thousands of years. This means that long, long after we stop polluting our atmosphere with fossil fuels, the 20 most deadly consequences of those actions will go on and last for many generations, and both we and future generations will suffer dearly for our failures to address and resolve this emergency now.

The initial temperature range for triggering the beginning of irreversible global warming varies between 1.7 to 2.2° Celsius (about 3- 4° Fahrenheit) which, unfortunately, is where we are at now when you also add in and compensate for all of the other already committed or “baked in” temperature increasing factors due to already active climate, ecological geological and human system momentums and inertias.

Committed global warming simply means that even though we are not there now, we are already unavoidably committed to reaching a certain temperature level in the near future (one or more decades) because of what has happened in the past or is happening now. Committed or "baked in" global warming occurs due to complex climate processes, including numerous climate system and climate subsystem momentums and inertias which are fully described in the new Climageddon book. (You can temporarily get a free ebook copy of Climageddon by clicking here.)

In summary, irreversible global warming is a distinct new climate state created by the combination of:

1. all of the preceding facts,

2. increasing average global temperatures for at least the next 50 years,

3. currently crossed and soon to be crossed additional global warming tipping points,

4. the many global warming caused consequences interacting among themselves and with other human and ecological systems and,

5. the multiple climate system and subsystem self-reinforcing positive feedback loops that will be occurring (If you are not sure of what a positive feedback loop mentioned above is and why it will be so bad for your climate future, please take the time to explore this link.)

Finally, some good news and the other surprise benefits of irreversible global warming to help you keep this difficult news in perspective

Even though global warming has now reached irreversibility, depending upon where you live in the world many of us still have a significant amount of time left to make our emergency preparations, adapt our environments, lifestyles and livelihoods wherever possible, and possibly where necessary migrate to say for zones to save ourselves, much of humanity and our civilization. Once we have wisely made our emergency preparations, adaptations or migration if necessary, we still have decades left to live meaningful and enjoyable lives if we are knowledgeable about what is coming.

The following expanded good news is most certainly needed to counterbalance the above horrible news and also to help us persevere to adapt to the many consequence realities of irreversible global warming.

The full good news is:

1. We are intelligent and adaptive beings and we are able to solve or adapt to almost anything.

2. In order to create the best possible outcome for ourselves and those we love, we can need to squarely face this emergency and prepare for and adapt to it. If we start immediately, and we work together using an effective, prioritized plan like the one we have created called the Job One for Humanity Plan, many of us will survive and thrive when this is over. 

3. The future is unknown and full of unpredictable negative and positive wild cards. This means that there is still hope for some of humanity and civilization to survive if we quickly exercise responsible, intelligent and effective, "first things first" critical path adaptive actions to survive the global warming emergency. We should be encouraged by the fact that in the last 4.5 billion years of Earth's evolution, life has survived 5 previous mass extinctions similar to what we are facing.

4. Enough of us should be able to make it through this escalating global warming evolutionary bottleneck and minimize the worst of this temporary transitional evolutionary retrogression that we are currently in (and creating.)

5. We can still fully enjoy each day (as best as we can, even in spite of the rapidly destabilizing climate, escalating global warming catastrophes and other deteriorating or retrogressing global challenges. We can and should make our lives as happy and as good as they can be during this temporary global warming retrogression and transitional period. We can continue to live meaningful and enjoyable lives for many years to come if we are wise and act immediately to prepare and plan for what is now unavoidable!

6. Overcoming this global warming emergency as well as our other major converging global adaptive challenges will also help us better solve even our currently unknown future challenges as one effective and united human family, and it will help us create a sustainable prosperity for all. It is important to understand our other major converging global adaptive challenges because the global warming emergency is not taking place within those other challenges, and is not only a multiplier of those other challenges, those other major converging global adaptive challenges in many cases also help cause and/or magnify the global warming emergency. Some of them are even the roots of the deepest causes of the global warming emergency.

7. Working together we will by necessity need to build many new sustainable prosperity eco-communities. These new eco-communities will serve as a critically necessary backup plan for humanity and civilization. These eco-communities will also act as successful examples and "beacons of light" teaching the new sustainable lifestyles and livelihoods vital to even having a future. (For more information on these eco-communities see the new eco-community model at our sister website.)

8. There are more good news and surprise benefits about the global warming emergency that offers additional hope for the evolution of humanity, click here for them.

As Michael Dowd the evolutionary teacher likes to say "what really matters is coming back into right relationship with reality." Because we have failed to effectively resolve escalating global warming over the last 30+ years of warnings by our best scientists, we will now literally be forced by its escalating consequences to come back into a new right relationship with reality or we will perish!

To create a right relationship with the reality of irreversible global warming our organization has evolved into an eco-community of sustainability advocates and Evolutioneers that value the wisdom of appropriate threat preparedness, adaptability and living sustainably. We are not fear manipulated or fear dominated, but we also will never ignore painful data that should trigger protective and useful evolutionary fear reactions, like our current global warming emergency. We use such "warning feedback" and appropriate evolutionary fear to wisely anticipate, avoid, prepare and/or adapt.

We are preparing and growing our local eco-community in advance for this transitional global warming crisis and its new kind of evolutionary bottleneck and retrogression. We are doing this solely because the current facts clearly shout that many of our ecological (and in some areas even our economic, political and social systems,) are in severe challenge or, are nearing critical tipping points or collapse with no or low remaining recovery resilience left to "right the ship." Nowhere is this now more true than in the catastrophe amplifying and multiplying area of our escalating global warming emergency.

To the discerning evaluator and researcher both human history and the current global warming facts indicate that many of our other non-global warming converging global challenges will continue to get worse faster with little realistic hope of correction before a chain reaction of multiple or, cascading global catastrophes and crossed tipping points shakes us and wakes us to the need for drastic and immediate evolutionary improvement toward more sustainable livelihoods and lifestyles.

Because of what we are now doing as a species (expanding fossil fuel use and its consequent atmospheric carbon pollution,) and not doing, (immediately establishing strictly enforceable international carbon pollution limitation laws,) global warming is rapidly getting worse now on an exponential curve. And, it will get much, much worse in the decades to come. And, we really can't do much about it at this late date with our current political and economic global warming remedial actions, conditions and inertia.

We are not detached survivalists waiting for the end of the world! We are engaged sustainability advocates and Evolutioneers working actively to create a better world. We believe whole-heartedly in working for the best possible future while at the same time wisely being prepared for the worst possible and temporary transition period. 

To help deal with this global warming emergency, we also envision that by necessity and as a safeguard, there also needs to be a widespread establishment of multitudes of new eco-communities in all of the global warming safe zones. They will play an essential (and possibly major,) role in securing the survival of humanity and civilization and in the establishment of the new sustainable prosperity vision within the post-global warming culture.

By helping to create these new backup eco-communities in the global warming save zones, driven into creation by the urgency of the global warming emergency, we together can help ensure a better path for the long-term future of humanity and our civilization.

We will enact our mission and message only by using only peaceful and evolutionary means and where we can still fine enjoyment and joy in relationship and experience of our day to day lives.

And finally, even if the escalating global warming emergency and the convergence of it with humanity's other major converging global adaptive challenges was somehow resolved in the next 30 to 50 years or turned out to be not as bad as is currently predicted, these new eco-communities would function even better and more joyously on their other goals of helping to co-create the necessary re-structuring and re-alignment of society necessary to create:

a.) a sustainable prosperity for all of humanity (and because of the dangers of ignoring the 5000-year Sustainability rule,)

b.) a just civilization and

c.) thriving and meaning-filled individuals and communities --- all of which will better align with and forward the progressive evolution of life in the universe. 

Do not be discouraged. There is much we can still do to prepare for, adapt to and where necessary, migrate to survive and thrive for as long as possible. Click here for an effective new plan called Job One for Humanity. It is free, it will help you to deal with irreversible global warming and you can begin it today.

What you can do today to prepare for, adapt to and, slow and lessen this global warming emergency so more of us survive longer with a better quality of life

In order to help you and society prepare for and adapt to the current global warming emergency, our organization forwards the free Job One for Humanity Global Warming Adaptation Plan. It is a critical deadline-driven “first things first” plan designed to help individuals and groups:

  1. do everything within your power to cut all global carbon emissions in half by 2020, then cut in half again by 2030, and then cut in half again each decade out to 2050 as the only honest solution to keep us safe. We either do this to this level or many (billions,) of us, our children and our grandchildren will suffer and die from global warming consequences as soon as 2030-2050 depending on where you live in the world. To do this you will need to get our governments immediately enacting the radical, painful and costly fossil fuel use cuts by law as well as the other actions required for humanity to survive see Part 3 of the Job One Plan and Part 4 of the Job One Plan,
  2. make the necessary emergency backup and recovery preparations before it is too late, (Part 1 of the Job One Plan,)
  3. adapt locally to the new realities of irreversible global warming. Click here for details on how to do this in Part 1 of the Job One Plan,
  4. plan and execute the necessary migration of individuals, families, businesses, and communities as well as critically needed infrastructure to areas that will be much safer from the 20 worst consequences of global warming, (See Part One Of the Job One Plan,
  5. implement effective global warming slow and lessen strategies wherever possible in your current location as an individual, (See Part 2 of the Job One Plan,) And
  6. obtain effective sustainable lifestyle and livelihood action steps so that when we do get through this with whatever is left of humanity, we have already created the needed new practices that will re-stabilize our climate and weather at or near its original state --- a state which has successfully sustained humanity and humanities ancestors for hundreds of thousands of years, (Part 2 of the Job One Plan.)

Never forget, if we fail, there is literally no livable future you would want to inhabit if we do not make the required critical fossil fuel cuts mentioned previously. Never forget we are not talking about vague statistics and probabilities here, but the lives of you, your family and billions of other individuals, families, and children all over the world! Click here to see your first action steps on the Job One plan.

In summary

At the present time, we are in the beginning stages of irreversible global warming because carbon ppm levels will continue to rise at about 3-4 ppm or more per year for at least 50 years. 

When the public takes into account all of the above facts concerning the causes and conditions behind the new irreversible global warming reality, particularly that we are already doomed to cross the carbon 500 ppm level which will trigger a complete loss of ALL ice and glaciers on the planet and many additional global warming tipping points being crossed, critical-thinking individuals and organizations will agree that we have, in fact, already entered a new and highly dangerous state of irreversible global warming for at least the next 50 years.

Even more unfortunate is the fact that because crossing carbon 500 ppm becomes a very slippery and very fast slope to reaching carbon 600 ppm, it also condemns us to endless chains of crossing more global warming tipping points and catastrophic or extinction potential consequences growing in frequency, severity, and scale across climate, human, and ecological systems. There is currently no way to fix our current global warming situation for at least 50 years and then probably centuries to hundreds to thousands of years --- there are now only ways to prepare for and adapt to what is unavoidable and then slow and lessen it, and hope to survive it! 

For all practical intensive purposes we have already crossed the point of no return for at least the next 50 years with all of its associated unavoidable consequences and what we must do now is to prepare for and adapt to what we cannot avoid. 

There is still hope that we can prevent the full late phase Climageddon Scenario end-of-the-world climate model from occurring, but only if we act now and make the required global fossil fuel use cuts as described above and enact the other steps of the job one plan!

Want critical information on how you can adapt, prepare and protect your family, business, and nation from the ongoing global warming catastrophes as well as slow and lessen what is now unavoidable? Click here now.

You've heard a lot of bad news. Don't neglect the good news and the surprising "benefits" as we work through this emergency. You may even begin to see that humanity's greatest challenge may also become humanity's greatest opportunity. Click here to read about these surprise "benefits." This surprise benefits page is one of the most read pages on our website!

If you are wondering how did this gross misinformation of the general public and our current state of irreversible global warming and crisis happen? Click here for the full story.

Still, don't believe that global warming is irreversible for at least the next 50 years? Let us continue to prove it to you!

Get the temporarily free ebook version of the new Climageddon book by clicking here. All of the preceding, and far more information about how we have created our current irreversible global warming nightmare and global warming emergency can be found in the new Climageddon book. If you want to get a printed version of Climageddon from Amazon, click here. Each purchase of a printed version of Climageddon helps support the Job One for Humanity nonprofit organization and our Job One Plan to help you survive and thrive through our current irreversible global warming.

If you're still feeling fearful, upset, in denial or anxious about what you have read

Yes, global warming is now unfortunately irreversible for at least the next 50 years and there are major, unthinkable and unavoidable consequences coming at carbon 500 and 600 ppm. Those are very hard facts to process! 

If you are still having trouble dealing with the very upsetting reality of irreversible global warming and its worst consequences coming soon, we strongly suggest you immediately start applying the Kubler Ross model to help you deal with your fear or anxiety.

It is the emotional model now being used to help people deal with the news from their doctor that they are going to die over some known time period. It has relevance because, once you truly grasp the scale and seriousness of the rapidly escalating global warming emergency as described above, you too will realize that our lives and our children's lives are clearly going to be far more time-limited than we ever imagined, while at the same time, they will also be severely affected by global warming's 20 worst consequences.

 


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  • David Spielberg
    commented 2018-05-11 12:45:40 -0700
    This is a sobering and important message. The most important sentence in the entire article is:
    “Even if the world was currently fully committed to focusing every resource on the global warming emergency in the greatest mobilization in human history, it would still take at least 35 to 50 years or more to replace our current fossil fuel energy generation infrastructure with green energy generation infrastructure.”
    A fictionalized version of this article, On Vestige Way, available at Amazon.com, follows the science here so closely it almost seems like a collaboration. But it wasn’t.
    Get politically active. This is the most important story that must be spread widely, and nothing else comes even close.
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