"You cannot be called an alarmist if there really is something to be alarmed about." Unknown
Because the above is true and it is always best to get the bad news out-of-the-way before the good news, we will start with the bad news. Keep in mind as you read it that there is good news further down this page and, there is still hope we can find ways to slow, lessen and manage the well hidden from the public global warming calamity that you are about to discover.
Our Story is Really Your Future Story Too...
By late 2017, it became clear to our organization that the global warming authorities (the U.N's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC],) in charge of the 2016 International Paris Climate Conference agreement had grossly misinformed the public about the consequences and timetables of future global warming and, we had to do something about it.
At the last international climate conference the IPCC failed to:
a. warn the public of both the actual severity of future global warming consequences and,
b. how soon these consequences can actually occur.
For years, the IPCC and the governments and environmental organizations they influence have told the public:
- that global warming is still manageable (in the sense that we are currently and will continue to make steady and adequate progress in lessening global warming for the foreseeable future,)
- that global warming consequences will occur gradually,
- that global warming consequences will remain generally mild until about 2100 And,
- the very worst consequences of global warming will occur after 2100 long after most of us living today are gone.
Nothing listed above could be farther from the truth! In fact, the public has no idea that we have managed escalating global warming so incredibly poorly for the last 30 plus years that it has now become irreversible for at least another 50 years with horrific consequences arriving far sooner than almost any of us are prepared to deal with.
(If you would like to know more about how this gross misinformation of the public over a 30-year timeframe occurred, click here and go to the end of the page to the subtitle, How this Gross Misinformation Occurred.)
What this Gross Misinformation of the Public about Global Warming by the IPCC and Those Who Use Their Information Means
In spite of what is being reported in the media, the global warming reduction strategies currently being promoted or executed by the IPCC, our governments, and most environmental organizations will not work in time to save most of humanity from unconscionable levels of suffering and death far sooner than we are being told! Their well-intended global warming remedial strategies will not save us from:
a.) the 20 worst consequences of global warming continually increasing in frequency, severity, and scale,
b.) triggering many of the 11 most dangerous global warming tipping points leading to spiking and cascading ecological, economic, political and social system catastrophes and collapses and finally,
How fast it gets worse from where we are today and how much time we have left before the above a, b or c type global warming consequences begin to directly or indirectly affect you, your family, business or nation depends completely on your current location. In fact, some of you around the world are experiencing many severe a and b type consequences already.
Unfortunately, the a and b type consequence severity will increase rapidly within the next 5-10 years in the areas between the 25th parallel north and the 25th parallel south. Within the next 10 to 15 years, the areas of increasing consequences severity for the a and b consequences listed above will generally expand throughout the areas between the 35th parallel north and the 35th parallel south. Within 15 to 20 years, life will generally and regularly become highly chaotic and unstable for those unfortunate individuals and businesses still trying to live and operate below the 45th parallel north or the 45th parallel south.
Depending on your current and ultimate location, financial loss and death tolls from global warming-related catastrophes will continue to rise steadily until we reached what we call the last phases of the Climageddon Scenario. This is where as much as 70-90% of the world's total population will die within as little as 30-50 years. This will occur primarily because of starvation, migration wars, civil unrest and many of the other 20 worst global warming consequences. (This new mass extinction event probability will be explained in more detail further down this page and other linked pages below.)"
Unfortunately, There is Additional Bad News We Need to Face
If we do not engage in anything less than the greatest mass mobilization of resources in human history directed toward radically cutting fossil fuel use while simultaneously increasing green energy generation to slow and lessen the escalating 20 worst consequences of global warming we will cross another critical atmospheric carbon tipping point level of carbon 500 ppm (parts per million.) This is predicted to happen in as soon as 20-25 years from now about 2038-2042.
As background, the carbon ppm level in the atmosphere comes from our burning of fossil fuels. Because of the known effects of greenhouse gases like carbon, an increasing carbon ppm level in our atmosphere is one of the best, if not the best predictor of future global warming temperature increases. On the average, over the last 60 years, for every additional 25 PPM of carbon that goes into the atmosphere, our average global temperature goes up .5 degrees Fahrenheit or about .25 degrees C.
As of June of 2018, we are currently at carbon 411 ppm level. We are also adding another 3+ carbon ppm each year into the atmosphere as the global economy and world population grows.
As you can see from the graph below, carbon PPM is now rising at near exponential levels in spite of everything were being told about all the governmental and environmental programs that are supposed to be reducing global warming and the harmful effects of our using fossil fuels. As you can clearly see from the rising Carbon ppm graph below, our current programs and strategies to reduce global warming are failing horribly!
Worse yet, if we cross the critical carbon 500 ppm level, our average global temperature will inescapably soar to at least 4°C (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit). At 4°C, all ice on earth will begin melting as it has done repeatedly in the past, sea levels will eventually rise almost 300 feet, and a large portion of humanity (as much as 30-60%) will die of starvation, or from rising temperatures and global warming's other related 20 worst consequences.) At carbon 500 ppm governments and societies will collapse in many areas of the world.
If we cross the "all ice on earth melts" carbon 500 ppm critical level, because of intrinsic global warming tipping points and that it will take us at least another 50 plus years to get off fossil fuels and replace that usage with green energy, it is highly probable we will quickly reach the carbon 600 ppm tipping point within as little as another 25-30 years, about 2063-2072. Crossing the carbon 600 ppm level will raise the average global temperature to 5°C (9 degrees Fahrenheit) and bring about massive methane clathrate releases from ocean coastal shelves as it has done before in the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum 56 million years ago, and most notably the Permian–Triassic extinction event, when up to 96% of all marine species became extinct, 252 million years ago.
Because methane, when released as a gas from methane clathrate is 86 times more potent than carbon as a temperature increasing greenhouse gas, it will once again rapidly spike up the average global temperatures once again. If it continues to rise from there, it will eventually bring about the extinction of most if not all of humanity and the end of civilization as we know it in the final phases of the Climageddon Scenario.
How Important is it to Understand the True Nature and Qualities of our Escalating Global Warming Emergency?
The above bad news is truly the most important message of the 21st-century. This is because other than thermonuclear war, the new reality of irreversible global warming for at least the next 50 years has become humanity's single greatest security threat and greatest global disruptor of future economic, political and social stability! It has also become the single greatest threat multiplier for humanity's other biggest global challenges. (as described in detail here.)
The escalating consequences of global warming will not occur gradually and definitely, will not be mild to moderate as we are being told. Great suffering, starvation, financial loss, large-scale migrations, climate wars, and death are already occurring all over the world from the 20 major consequences of escalating global warming. Worse yet, these consequences will continue to increase in frequency, severity, and scale almost every year.
What clearly needs to be understood by everyone is that if the average global temperature rises just 3° C above pre-industrial levels, almost no one and no nation will be spared levels of severe and massive financial loss, suffering, and death that will make Earth into a living hell. We are now as little as just 10-15 years away from where we are locked into that deadly 3°C temperature rise.
If we do not take immediate action to radically cut fossil fuel use and increase green energy generation (as described in our Job One for Humanity Plan) unconscionable suffering and death will become a reality for much of the world's total population—not by 2100 or later, but by as soon as 2047 to 2067.
Here is what various U.S. intelligence agencies have said in their Worldwide Threat Assessment about our global warming future in their most recent annual public reports:
"Extreme weather events in a warmer world have the potential for greater impacts and can compound with other drivers to raise the risk of humanitarian disasters, conflict, water and food shortages, population migration, labor shortfalls, price shocks, and power outages..." (This was presented as the written testimony of Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence appointed by President Donald Trump.)
"Worsening air pollution from forest burning, agricultural waste incineration, urbanization, and rapid industrialization—with increasing public awareness—might drive protests against authorities, such as those recently in China, India, and Iran..."
"Accelerating biodiversity and species loss—driven by pollution, warming, unsustainable fishing, and acidifying oceans—will jeopardize vital ecosystems that support critical human systems. Recent estimates suggest that the current extinction rate is 100 to 1,000 times the natural extinction rate."
The above U.S. intelligence report also reflects the views of those in the thoroughly peer-reviewed interagency National Climate Assessment. Unless we enact the greater mass mobilization in human history of the required emergency actions now, we will soon face chaotic economic, political, and social collapses at many local, regional, national and international levels.
Our current Global warming emergency does not mean everything is hopeless and that there is nothing we can do. But it does mean we are now at an extremely serious juncture and we have little remaining time left to prepare for and adapt to the massive global warming consequences that will, at the minimum, steadily worsen for another 50 plus years!
What needs to happen to save the future?
As you can see from the first carbon ppm graph on this page, we are not making anything even close to the required radical cuts in our fossil fuel use to reduce the carbon going into our atmosphere. To make the necessary fossil fuel use cuts, all global carbon emissions would have to be cut in half by 2020, then cut in half again by 2030, and then cut in half again each decade out to 2050 to keep us safe and hopefully keep us from crossing the 500 and 600 carbon ppm levels with their unthinkable consequences. This means that in order for us to keep global temperature anywhere even close to levels where most of humanity can survive, fossil fuel emissions need to be slashed by about 75 percent by 2030, and by nearly 95 percent by 2050 to stay within a safe climate zone. (From a 2017 paper in Science lead-authored by Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.)
These are the real fossil fuel use needed reduction numbers and not the grossly miscalculated and misleading reduction numbers better forwarded by the IPCC and most governments of the world. We are not making anything even close to these levels of extinction prevention fossil fuel cuts!
To grasp how difficult these cuts will be, imagine that in the next three years you personally will have to cut all of your home (appliance and heating/cooling etc use,) auto, plane and other travel that uses fossil fuels as well as all business activities that use fossil fuels by 50%, then cut another 50% from that point within the next 10 years and then cut another 50% in each of the following decades. Now imagine everyone else doing this all across the planet.
Are you doing this? Does that seem likely or possible to you that you would voluntarily so change your normal life so fast? Do you see the governments of the world coming together and passing the laws and the enforceable punishments necessary to make sure these cuts actually occur?
It is more likely that the citizens of the world who did not fully understand both the urgency and critical importance of why they needed to make these radical, immediate and painful sacrifices would literally throw any politician out of office or would even overthrow any government that tried to enforce these kinds of radical energy and fossil fuel usage cuts to their comfortable or even subsistence level lifestyles and livelihoods?
Now imagine all of the individuals, corporations and government's that depend upon fossil fuel use and sales directly or indirectly seeing their livelihoods disappear by 50% in the next two years and then drop another 10% every decade until eventually their industries no longer exist. How much of a fight and a global disinformation program would those individuals, industries, and nations create and put up to preserve their often luxurious livelihoods and their futures? What would the fossil fuel industry be capable of doing to preserve a $28 trillion year market segment? How far would they go to preserve their one-third piece of the world's total gross domestic product (GDP) in what they would have to see as a life and death struggle?
If you're a pragmatist, this and the other 10 reasons we will not be able to stop escalating global warming for at least another 50 years, means we will not be able to prevent massive global temperature increases, horrendous climate calamities, and near extinction (or extinction) of humanity far sooner than imagined.
We have already passed the point of no return for at least another 50 years with all of its associated unavoidable consequences unless we can immediately radically cut our fossil fuel use by the percentages described above. But can we really make the necessary cuts?
If your pragmatist, you will most likely believe that it is highly improbable we will ever make the critically needed cuts to our fossil fuel use in time to save ourselves. There are several reasons you are most probably correct.
One is that each year we continue to delay in making the needed radical fossil fuel usage cuts means that any future cuts will need to be even more extreme, which makes them even less likely to be done because of the even more severe hardships that they will impose globally.
The other major reason it is unlikely we will make the needed cuts soon enough to save ourselves is because of what is called Garrett's Global Warming Dilemma. This research states that because of the laws of physics and mathematics, almost all of our fossil fuel based global economy must first collapse in a necessary and steep global recession or global depression in order to produce the required cuts in our fossil fuel use to save humanity in time. This well-documented climate research by Professor Garrett is the research most often ignored by environmental groups around the world because it produces a horrible dilemma for which either answer is unthinkable as well as un-sellable.
Because of this dilemma, and because there is no public or political will to create a severe, but necessary severe global recession or depression to reduce fossil fuel use, environmental groups hide this critical research away and ignore it like dirty laundry. Because of the preceding factors, it is hard to imagine that fossil fuels use will ever be cut to anything close to the critical levels needed, until we are faced with truly massive global financial losses and billions dead and suffering.
By that time about 30-50 years from now, the worst consequences and higher temperatures of global warming will be irreversible for timescales far, far beyond the human lifespan. (if you're a science person, please click here and read a summary of Prof. Garrett's alarming research on atmospheric carbon, global warming, and the necessary fossil fuel reductions we must make to save the future.)
If you are a pragmatist and a mature adult, at this point you realize that for all intents and purposes, we have already crossed the point of no return and what we must do now is limit the total damages by preparing for and adapting to what we cannot avoid. Depending upon your location, for the next 5 to 15 years, you should still be able to can fill your life with as much joy and satisfaction as is possible. The time to enjoy what remains of the quality of your existing life is now because escalating global warming is going to make life progressively worse faster and faster.
We can still hope that we will slow and lessen what is coming just enough so that some of humanity and civilization will survive in the global warming safe zones of the future. There is also another very dark possibility that will allow some of us to survive.
If we do not successfully either radically cut fossil fuel use by the percentages listed above or allow the world economy to go into a severe recession or depression, the other most probable way that we will finally and successfully curtail our fossil for use is through a massive die-off of 70 to 90% of the human population. This will occur in part due to massive crop failures and starvation linked to soaring global warming temperatures.
As billions die of starvation, or in migration and resource wars or because of the other worst consequences of global warming, fossil fuel use will drop radically in what may be the dark "last resort solution” that saves us in the end. But remember: even if this happens, it will still take centuries to thousands of years before the average global temperature and the planet recovers from what we have done to it. Survivors will be living a nightmare of high temperatures, extreme weather and chains of other consequences we can barely envision.
There is no escape. In every situation, the only way we save the future is radically cut fossil fuel use. Also, in all of the above-discussed situations, no matter what, we must do what we can and make the best of a horrible situation.
We need to come together immediately and get very busy with what we still can do! Those specific "must do" actions are described farther down this page in a section called, what you can do about our global warming emergency.
How Was This Allowed to Happen?
The current global warming remedial strategies forwarded by our governments, most environmental organizations, and the IPPC will not save us in time because they are simply not acknowledging to either themselves or to the public the painful new reality that we have already reached the level of irreversible global warming for at least the next 50 years. Because they are not acknowledging that this new reality exists, they are not also not preparing for or dealing with it!
There are many reasons why irreversible global warming has occurred and that it's consequences will continue getting worse for the next 50 + years. (See this page for all of those reasons.)
For all practical intents and purposes, one of the most important and disheartening reasons global warming is irreversible is because the proposed "new technology" and geo-engineering type solutions that are being relied upon as a last resort to save us from extinction:
a. simply do not exist,
b. are not able to be scaled up adequately in time or,
c. have side effects far worse than the problem they are trying to solve! (If you believe "new technology" won't save us from the previous statement was an exaggeration, please also read this page before you continue reading the rest of this document.)
If we as individuals are consciously paying attention to the destabilizing climate around us, it is not hard to see reality is already "forcing" us to face the bad global warming news in the form of increasingly more severe, frequent and larger scaled global warming consequences. The good news here is that as adults, many of us have already learned the valuable lesson for the need to face bad news and painful realities. We have also learned that whenever we do not face the reality of some important problem and deal with it, that particular reality (problem,) not only gets worse, it also usually lasts longer.
As an organization we have the courage and duty to speak out about these difficult global warming truths, but please do not mistake us for some kind of survivalist organization or apocalyptic community just because we inform you candidly about the soon-coming and life-ending consequences of our current irreversible global warming emergency.
We are a non-profit global warming education organization working for the benefit of society.
Our message is simple. Because global warming has already become irreversible for at least the next 50 years all we can do now is adapt to it and try to slow down the worst of it so that we have more time to prepare so that more us can survive as best we can. You can review this page to prove to yourself that we are not exaggerating how bad our future will become for all of those who are unprepared for it!
It's time to accept the bitter reality that the battle to keep our current level of global warming from still continuing to rise steadily for as long as the next 50+ years is over! We need to face this difficult reality so that we can move on to what we can still do.
The Good News of This Global Warming Emergency
There is some good news in this horrible situation. The following good news is also needed to counterbalance the above horrible news and to help us persevere and stay motivated to adapt to the many consequence realities of the global warming emergency.
Our simple good news is:
In order to create the best possible outcome for ourselves and those we love, we can still squarely face this emergency and prepare for and adapt to it so some may survive, but only if we start immediately and we work together using an effective, prioritized plan like the Job One for Humanity Plan.
Our full good news is:
1. We are intelligent and adaptive beings and we are able to solve or adapt to almost anything.
2. The future is unknown and full of unpredictable negative and positive wild cards. This means that there is still hope for some of humanity and civilization to survive if we quickly exercise responsible, intelligent and effective, "first things first" critical path adaptive actions to survive the global warming emergency. See the Job One for Humanity Plan.
3. We should be encouraged by the fact that in the last 4.5 billion years of Earth's evolution, life has survived 5 previous mass extinctions similar to what we are facing. Enough of us should be able to make it through this escalating global warming evolutionary bottleneck and minimize the worst of this temporary transitional evolutionary retrogression that we are currently in (and creating.)
4. We can still fully enjoy each day (as best as we can, even in spite of the rapidly destabilizing climate, escalating global warming catastrophes and other deteriorating or retrogressing global challenges. We can and should make our lives as happy and as good as they can be during this hopefully temporary global warming retrogression and transitional period.
5. Working together we will by necessity need to build many new sustainable prosperity eco-communities. These new eco-communities will serve as a critically necessary backup plan for humanity and civilization. These eco-communities will also act as successful examples and "beacons of light" teaching the new sustainable lifestyles and livelihoods vital to even having a future if we are able to make it through this emergency. (For more information on these new backup eco-communities see the eco-community model at our sister website.)
6. Overcoming this global warming emergency will also help us better solve our other major converging global adaptive challenges as well as our currently unknown future challenges as one effective and united human family. Solving this challenge will help us eventually create a sustainable prosperity for all. (It is important to understand what are our other major converging global adaptive challenges because the global warming emergency is taking place as an integral part of those other challenges. Our global warming emergency is not only a multiplier of those other global adaptive challenges, those other global adaptive challenges also help cause or magnify this global warming emergency and vice versa. Some of the other global adaptive challenges are even the roots of the deepest causes of the global warming emergency.)
7. There are more good news and surprise benefits about the global warming emergency that offers additional hope for the evolution of humanity, click here for them. This is one of the most read pages on our website.
As Michael Dowd the evolutionary teacher likes to say "what really matters is coming back into right relationship with reality." Because we have failed to effectively resolve escalating global warming over the last 30+ years of warnings by our best scientists, we will now literally be forced by its escalating consequences to come back into a new right relationship with reality or we will perish!
To create a right relationship with the reality of irreversible global warming our organization has evolved into an eco-community of sustainability advocates and Evolutioneers that value the wisdom of appropriate threat preparedness, adaptability and living sustainably. We are not fear manipulated or fear dominated, but we also will never ignore painful data that should trigger protective and useful evolutionary fear reactions, like our current global warming emergency. We use such "warning feedback" and appropriate evolutionary fear to wisely anticipate, avoid, prepare and/or adapt.
We are preparing and growing our local eco-community and promoting the creation of other national and international eco-communities in advance for this hopefull transitional global warming crisis and its new kind of evolutionary bottleneck and retrogression. We are doing this solely because the current facts clearly shout that many of our ecological (and in some areas even our economic, political and social systems,) are in severe challenge or, are nearing critical tipping points or collapse with no or low remaining recovery resilience left to "right the ship." Nowhere is this now more true than in the catastrophe amplifying and multiplying area of our escalating global warming emergency.
To the discerning evaluator and researcher both human history and the current global warming facts indicate that many of our other non-global warming converging global challenges will continue to get worse faster with little realistic hope of correction before a chain reaction of multiple or, cascading global catastrophes and crossed tipping points shakes us and wakes us to the need for drastic and immediate evolutionary improvement toward more sustainable livelihoods and lifestyles.
Because of what we are now doing as a species (expanding fossil fuel use and its consequent atmospheric carbon pollution,) and not doing, (immediately establishing strictly enforceable international carbon pollution limitation laws,) global warming is rapidly getting worse now on an exponential curve. And, it will get much, much worse in the decades to come. And, we really can't do much about it at this late date with our current political and economic global warming remedial actions, conditions and inertia.
We are not detached survivalists waiting for the end of the world! We are engaged sustainability advocates and Evolutioneers working actively to create a better world. We believe whole-heartedly in working for the best possible future while at the same time wisely being prepared for the worst possible and hopefully temporary transition period.
To help deal with this global warming emergency, we also envision that by necessity and as a safeguard, there also needs to be a widespread establishment of multitudes of new eco-communities in all of the global warming safe zones. They hope we will play an essential role in securing the survival of humanity and civilization and in the establishment of the new sustainable prosperity vision within the post-global warming culture that survives the future.
By helping to create these new backup eco-communities in the global warming save zones, driven into creation by the urgency of the global warming emergency, we together can help ensure a better path for the long-term future of humanity and our civilization.
We will enact our mission and message only by using only peaceful and evolutionary means and where we can still fine enjoyment and joy in relationship and experience of our day to day lives.
And finally, even if the escalating global warming emergency and the convergence of it with humanity's other major converging global adaptive challenges was somehow resolved in the next 30 to 50 years or turned out to be not as bad as is currently predicted, these new eco-communities would function even better and more joyously on their other goals of helping to co-create the necessary re-structuring and re-alignment of society necessary to create:
b.) a just civilization and
c.) thriving and meaning-filled individuals and communities --- all of which will better align with and forward a positive and progressive evolution of life in the universe.
To learn more about our specific and detailed global warming emergency preparedness recommendations and strategies please click here.
To learn more about these new eco-communities click here and, you will be taken to a sister website.
What Can You Do About Our Global Warming Emergency?
In order to help you and society prepare for and adapt to the current global warming emergency, our organization forwards the free Job One for Humanity Global Warming Adaptation Plan. It is a critical deadline-driven “first things first” plan designed to help individuals and groups:
- make the necessary emergency backup and recovery preparations before it is too late, (Part 1 of the Job One Plan,)
- adapt locally to the new realities of irreversible global warming. Click here for details on how to do this in Part 1 of the Job One Plan,
- plan and execute the necessary migration of individuals, families, businesses, and communities as well as critically needed infrastructure to areas that will be much safer from the 20 worst consequences of global warming, Part One Of the Job One Plan,)
- implement effective global warming slow and lessen strategies wherever possible in your current location as an individual, (Part 2 of the Job One Plan,) but more importantly help get our governments immediately enacting the radical, painful and costly fossil fuel use cuts and other actions required for humanity to survive (Part 3 of the Job One Plan and Part 4 of the Job One Plan,) And
- obtain effective sustainable lifestyle and livelihood action steps so that when we do get through this with whatever is left of humanity, we have already created the needed new practices that will re-stabilize our climate and weather at or near its original state --- a state which has successfully sustained humanity and humanities ancestors for hundreds of thousands of years, (Part 2 of the Job One Plan.)
Click here to see your first action steps on the Job One plan.
We have already crossed the point of no return for at least the next 50 years with all of its associated unavoidable consequences and what we must do now is to prepare for and adapt to what we cannot avoid.
Our Main Mission is:
a. to warn you (and society,) about our current state of irreversible global warming for at least the next 50 years, its 20 worst consequences, and its 11 key tipping points,
b. to help you prepare for and adapt to this horrible news because we are not cutting fossil fuel use anywhere close to what needs to be done to save the future and because of the tipping points we are already crossing, the high likelihood that 70-90+ percent of the unprepared human population will be dead within 30-50 years. and,
c. do everything we can to slow and lessen escalating global warming so more of us can survive longer and suffer less.
If you're still feeling anxious or fearful about what you have read
Yes, global warming is now unfortunately irreversible for at least the next 50 years and there are major, unthinkable and unavoidable consequences coming at carbon 500 and 600 ppm. Those are very hard facts to process!
If you are still having trouble dealing with the very upsetting reality of irreversible global warming and its worst consequences coming soon, we strongly suggest you immediately start applying the Kubler Ross model to help you deal with your fear or anxiety.
It is the emotional model now being used to help people deal with the news from their doctor that they are going to die over some known time period. It has relevance because, once you truly grasp the scale and seriousness of the rapidly escalating global warming emergency as described above, you too will realize that our lives and our children's lives are clearly going to be far more time-limited than we ever imagined, while at the same time, they will also be severely affected by global warming's 20 worst consequences.