The following correct global fossil fuel reduction targets may cause readers emotional discomfort. This is because the fossil fuel targets and deadlines below contradict the commonly held illusions about what our current fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines should be. It also contradicts the commonly held illusions about what our past fossil fuel reduction progress has been.
This article lays bare the global fossil fuel reduction target and deadline deceptions being forwarded by wealthy corporate or national vested interests. The following corrective information is essential because one first has to know exactly where one is starting from --- before one can choose the correct course of action to get to the desired destination.
The commonly promoted 2050, 2040, 2035, 2032, and 2030 global fossil fuel targets and deadlines currently provided by governments, trusted authorities like the IPCC, (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and most environmental groups are dangerously wrong.
In the article below, you will find links to the documentation on why the heavily promoted 2050, 2040, 2035, 2032, and 2030 global fossil fuel targets and deadlines are our dangerous freeways to failure and a fast track to mass extinction within our lifetimes. The information below will help the reader correct course by presenting the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets that we must achieve if we are to survive as a species and civilization.
Below, you also will be able to explore the three extinction-evoking global warming tipping points that we will cross within your lifetime. But only if, we do not achieve the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets described below.
At the end of this article, you will find links to effective governmental actions and solutions that must be undertaken to meet the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and detailed technical notes. The technical notes will explain the calculations behind why the 2025 targets are the correct targets for where we are now.
And finally, to help you process the following difficult news, at the end of this article we have provided a self-directed effective plan for what you personally can start to do your part to help resolve the global warming emergency while we still have the time to do so.
(If you do not understand how the fossil fuel emissions go into our atmosphere to create our current global warming emergency, please click here for a set of simple illustrations.)
When it comes to what our fossil fuel emission reduction targets should be, what you have been told by governments, the media and most of the world's largest environmental groups is dead wrong! Fortunately, we now have one remaining last chance until 2025 to get it right.
We were notified about the coming global warming extinction dangers by our scientists over 35 years ago and did little to nothing. Having done little to nothing we now have to make shocking changes.
In order to prepare you for these shocking last chance fossil fuel reduction targets that must be made to save humanity from unimaginable suffering, death, it is important to know how poorly our previous fossil fuel reduction actions have fared.
What has been hidden from you:
1. We have increased fossil fuel use more this century than in the last two decades of the 20th century.
2. More than half of all fossil fuel emissions released into the atmosphere during the previous 25 years is more than was released in all of recorded history before 1990.
3. We have had over 20 international conferences on fossil fuel reduction. We had international treaties since at least 1993 pledging we would reduce worldwide global warming. We are still about 67% higher in carbon emissions than we were in the early 1990s. (Atmospheric carbon emissions is one of the best ways to measure future global warming.)
4. In 2018 carbon emissions increased another dramatic 2.7% and they are projected to rise once again in 2019. (Below is a 70 plus year graph that shows the rising carbon (CO2,) levels in the atmosphere (in parts per million [ppm]) from burning fossil fuels.
This graph will help you visualize that global warming is not just going bad; it is getting exponentially worse. This worsening is occurring at the same time we are being told by our governments and the media we are doing better at reducing carbon emissions.
Worse yet, exponential increases in carbon emissions can also mean exponential increases in future global warming consequences.)
Yes, intentionally or through ignorance, our governments, the media, and most of the world's environmental groups have not been telling us the REAL facts about our very REAL lack of any meaningful progress in reducing the rate of fossil fuel use, much less the complete absence of any substantive reductions across the world in reducing atmospheric carbon.
While exploring the REAL fossil fuel reductions that must be made to save our future, please keep in mind our past horrific fossil fuel reduction failures.
(If you do not believe we are telling you irrefutable facts above about our dismal failure in reducing global warming over the last 35 years, click here to view a short video by climate Professor Kevin Anderson made during a recent presentation to the Oxford University Climate Society. This video also backs up the critical and shocking last chance, global fossil fuel reduction targets, which will be described below.)
To prepare you for the problematic global fossil fuel reduction targets you are about to read, it is vital to have a bit summary context concerning our past actions:
a. We have ignored 35 years of global warming catastrophe and extinction warnings by our best climate scientists. This ignoring was mostly because the fossil fuel industry and it lobbyists owned politicians and suppressed this information in the media and public dialog. And,
b. The fossil fuel cuts we did make over the previous 35 years were grossly inadequate to the required cuts we should have made. This log-term inaction has further worsened the emergency in which we now find ourselves.
Our fossil fuel cutting inaction over the last 35 years has had a dire cost. Had we begun making the required fossil fuel cuts 35 years ago the required reductions now would be more gradual, manageable and far less painful. Unfortunately, we have thoroughly squandered our only opportunity for gradual global fossil fuel use cuts because of these last 35 years of inaction.
You are now prepared to read some harsh facts on the real fossil fuel cuts we need to make. These cuts are our last chance to save ourselves, the world's animal species and the other biological species from mass extinction within our lifetimes.
Our last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets
The following are the global fossil fuel reduction targets we now must reach. There were created using new global fossil fuel reduction estimates calculated by climate professor Kevin Anderson. Professor Anderson's calculations were further modified to compensate for other serious errors and underestimation present in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2030 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
The following are the absolute minimum total global fossil fuel reductions that must occur to prevent the strong probability of humanity going extinct not sometime after 2100, but within the next 30-50 years.
a. All industrially developed nations must reduce their total fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025 and then continue reducing fossil fuel use to net-zero carbon emissions by 2035. Net carbon zero emissions in this solution means that no additional fossil fuel emissions are going into the atmosphere that are not also simultaneously being removed from the atmosphere by natural means. (Only about 20 countries produce 70% or more of the world's carbon emissions.)
Think of developed nations like most members of the G 20 group; Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, and India. (See technical note one near the end of this page for why China and India had to be included in the list of developed countries.)
b. All developing nations must maintain their total fossil fuel emission levels as they were at the beginning of 2019 and not allow them to go any higher. Then by 2045, all developing nations must also be at net-zero carbon emissions. This allowance for developing nations to stay at the level they are now and gradually reduce down to net-zero carbon emissions by 2045 is part of an essential justice and equity equation.
The developed nations created their wealth by producing the majority of all carbon emissions in the atmosphere today. The developed nations have caused almost all of our current global warming extinction emergency. (See technical note two near the end of this page for more about justice and equity allowances.)
Please especially note that our above global fossil fuel reduction targets are not the same as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC,) global fossil fuel reduction targets. This discrepancy is because the current fossil fuel reduction targets presented by the United Nations and used by governments all over the world are also dead wrong!
Those calculations have been politically manipulated to allow fossil fuel producing countries and companies to maintain their sources of income. Those calculations also have been regularly and significantly underestimated.
Some of the calculations have been "cooked" to allow for "post-2050 atmospheric carbon reduction compensations," for a projected and currently non-proven carbon removal technology. Even the IPCC says this projected new carbon capture technology will not exist, be able to be scaled-up adequately or ready until maybe sometime after 2050. (The calculations Job One uses (above) are based on current conditions as well as the correct mathematics and physics from legitimate and unafraid climate scientists like Professor Kevin Anderson.)
To read about the politicizing of the science and math in the United Nations calculations as well as their underestimation and tipping point errors, click here.
To learn about the cooked calculations for a 2050 carbon capture technology which does not exist in a usable form and which, allows the uninformed to believe that we are safe and secure, click here.)
To understand the many technical details and compensatory calculations concerning how the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets were arrived at, see the Important Technical Details section near the bottom of this page
Your annual personal, business and national fossil fuel reduction targets
The above total targets break down into annual amounts for every person, every business, and every government in the developed world. Each year they must reduce their total fossil fuel use by about 25% or more per year until 2025. These annual reductions will allow us to reach the most critical 2025 overall 75% global fossil fuel reduction target.
Once we have reached that 2025 target successfully, we must then further reduce fossil fuel use at least another 10% per year over the following ten years and before 2035.
If you are in a developing nation, you cannot increase your annual fossil fuel use at all! You will need to begin reducing your fossil fuel use on the average by around 6% per year for the next 26 years to hit your critical net zero emissions target by 2045.
(If you don't believe the above developed and developing nations targets are the real fossil fuel reduction targets needed to survive what you read above, click here to view a short video by climate Professor Kevin Anderson. It is a video of a recent presentation to the Oxford University Climate Society.)
What is essential to know is that these shockingly large amounts of required fossil fuel reductions by 2025 for developed nations are critical! The massive 2025 reduction amounts are in part because our past and "popular" current false reduction strategies have resulted in grossly inadequate levels of fossil fuel reductions.
At this point, you are probably angry that we have been continually deceived about our global warming reduction progress. We have also been misled about the REAL annual fossil fuel reduction targets that we should have started making beginning over 35 years ago.
Think about all of the above fossil fuel reduction targets to be met by 2025 and 2035 for developed nations and 2045 for developing nations as the necessary hitting of the emergency brake on a train that is just about to go out of control in a real emergency. If we do not hit the emergency brake by hitting the 2025 targets, our emergency will become an extinction catastrophe!
What's most important to remember about achieving and not achieving the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets
a. We have wasted 35 years of warnings by our best climate scientists, and we are nearly out of time left to control our global warming futures.
b. If we fail to hit our 2025 targets, most of us will suffer and die or endure unthinkable economic, political, and social chaos within our lifetimes. This massive catastrophe will be due to the accelerating 20 worst consequences of global warming as well as our crossing three global warming's extinction-evoking tipping points. (These things will be described further below.)
c. We will unfortunately not see the results of any of our successful global warming reduction efforts which we might achieve for about 20 -30 years. Invisible climate momentum factors will delay seeing current results for decades.
d. If we fail to hit the 2025 targets, we will need to shift the world's focus and resources to emergency preparations, adaptation, and migration strategies for coming unavoidable consequences.
Why can't we just set new global fossil fuel reduction targets if we fail?
Many of you may not think the last chance 2025 targets are possible. You may also mistakenly believe that if we fail, we can still set new global targets for after 2025. Unfortunately, setting new targets after 2025 is even less likely to work.
If we fail to hit our extremely challenging 2025 targets, any new annual global fossil fuel reduction targets for the following years will have to be increased by even more than the already severe 2025 targets. Consequently, these new targets will be even less likely to be achieved in the years following 2025 than the original 2025 targets were.
For a moment, imagine we have failed to hit the original 2025 targets. We now have to set even steeper fossil fuel reductions in the years following 2025.
Reaching these new even more stringent fossil fuel reduction targets would crash the world economy even faster. They would also kill more people faster due to mass starvation. (This starvation is because as fossil fuel use is dramatically cut to global agriculture, global food production will also drop substantially.)
Additionally, the question needs to be asked. Will our already weak politicians likely to propose even more economic loss or deaths due to starvation if their first attempt failed?
If we have missed our last practical chance to control our global warming future (by reaching the 2025 targets,) trying desperately to hit new even more severe global warming reduction targets will increase the "game over" probability as well as crossing the three extinction-evoking tipping points (described immediately below.)
All of the above also strongly supports the painful reality that we must act decisively now. This is because acting decisively to meet the 2025 targets will, in truth, be our last practical chance to control the global warming future of humanity.
There really are many other compelling reasons we call the 2025 targets our last chance targets as you will soon discover in the next sections. (Also see the technical details and compensatory calculations concerning how the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets were arrived at in the Important Technical Details section near the bottom of this page
Why there will be massive suffering and death for 70-90% of humanity within the next 30-50 years, if we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and trigger the following three extinction-evoking tipping points
As you will discover below, failure to achieve the 2025 targets is not a rational option! But, if we do fail, here is how crossing the next three major global warming tipping points will cause mass human, animal, and biological extinction.
Additionally, during the unfolding processes of mass extinction, it will also cause economic, political, and social chaos within the next few decades.
Here is the first critical climate cliff and tipping point that we will cross after 2025
If we do not engage in anything less than the greatest government-driven mass mobilization in human history, we will go over the "last chance" climate cliff and tipping point. This mass mobilization would be directed toward cutting global fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 reduction targets.
This climate cliff and tipping point will occur at or shortly after we cross the carbon 425-450 parts per million (ppm) range. (See the blue Atmospheric CO2 carbon graph near the top of this page to see how close we are to that point already.)
This is our last chance climate cliff because it is our last "window of opportunity" to keep from going over the carbon 425 to 450 ppm range. Once we go over this climate, our average global temperature will inevitably rise above 2°C far faster than ever before in geological time. This rapid temperature rise will also create its own powerful momentum that will also help push our average global temperature even higher, even faster.
This momentum is composed of many factors and processes, including crossing additional global warming tipping points.
(To learn more about how crossing global warming tipping points like those in the illustration above, function, accelerate global warming temperature rise, create new consequences, causes sudden and complete climate, biological and human system collapses as well as making recovery from their effects much slower, harder and more expensive to achieve, click here.)
If we continue only to the beginning of the carbon 425-450 ppm climate cliff and tipping point range, (within about six years,) we can expect to lock in an eventual increase in average global temperature of about 2 -2.7° Celsius (4° - 4.9° Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. At only this 2°-2.7° Celsius increased average global temperature level, millions will starve. Tens of millions more from all over the world will eventually be forced to either migrate or die.
Temperatures will continue to increase in part because of:
a. climate system and atmospheric carbon accumulation momentum factors,
b. dangerous human systems inertia factors, (Described in part on this page.)
c. climate momentum causing more and other crossed global warming tipping points.
Once we go over the carbon 425-450 ppm climate cliff and hit the 2.2°-2.7° Celsius average global temperature increase level, this new carbon plus the total heat-producing momentum of all previously added atmospheric carbon will quickly and inevitably push our average global temperature even higher! (This momentum issue is due to all the additional carbon we have added over the last 50 years along with the other previously mentioned factors [in a, b and c above].)
All of the above means that, once we go over the climate cliff, we will be locked into continually increasing temperatures for as long as the next 30-50 years or longer!
If we cross the carbon 425 carbon ppm climate cliff, we will reach the critical threshold and carbon and rising temperature transition level. At this new level, we will be unable to stop ourselves from quickly and uncontrollably continuing to a 3°, 4°, 5°, and 6° Celsius average global temperature increase (5.4°, 7.2°, 9°, and 10.8° Fahrenheit.)
Once we cross the 2°C carbon 425 ppm climate cliff the even higher temperature levels of 3°, 4°, 5°, and possibly even 6° Celsius will also be all but locked in due to:
1. our continuing to add more fossil fuel burning carbon to the atmosphere every additional year (at about 3 ppm per year,)
2. the ever-increasing heat-producing carbon and other greenhouse gas momentum,
3. our being unable to stop ourselves from crossing many more natural global warming tipping points and triggering other climate system positive feedback loops and points of no return within the many systems and subsystems of the global climate, and
4. our human system inertias.
Because of the preceding, we have no other rational alternative other than to prevent ever crossing into this extremely dangerous transitional carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, range, and tipping point. (At our current rate of carbon and other greenhouse gas atmospheric pollution, entering this range will begin, unfortunately, sometime around 2025 to reach carbon 425 ppm and about 2035 to reach carbon 450 ppm.)
There is something we can be sure of in this global warming emergency. In spite of all of the challenges and adverse outcomes that are possible, the single constant truth for the best possible global warming outcome is that the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use:
a. the more people we will survive to carry on humanity, life and our beautiful civilization, and
b. future generations will suffer less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences and crossed tipping points.
c. the more time we will have to prepare for and adapt to what is no longer avoidable.
In the illustration below, you see a red vertical "Must not pass, last chance battle line and range of carbon 425 to 450 ppm." Going over the carbon 425 climate cliff range leads us to a very steep and slippery downward slope to our rapid extinction.
(This illustration above also lists at what carbon ppm levels the six distinct phases of the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown occur (CS Phase 1-6.) At some point, we strongly recommend that you review the yearly global warming consequence timetables found in what we call the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown. Read it after you finish this article. It will be linked again at the bottom of this page.)
Here is what is most important to remember about a failure to achieve our 2025 reduction targets:
1. Our ability to maintain any meaningful control over this looming extinction emergency ends in 2025. It ends when we go over the climate cliff and breach the carbon 425-450 ppm range. It is the hard math and pure physics of rising atmospheric carbon and the other greenhouse gases that will take us over the climate cliff.
The physics of increasing atmospheric carbon will drive our temperatures ever higher. These temperatures will rise to and through the next two extinction-evoking tipping points as well as many other global warming consequences described further below.
If we do not make the 2025 targets, our last chance "window of opportunity" to effectively control our destiny closes regarding preventing the extinction-evoking tipping points described below from being crossed. This last chance factor is why the carbon 425-450 ppm climate cliff is truly our most important tipping point to understand.
It is also helpful to understand how fast future global warming consequences will intensify. Using the illustration below, imagine all of the global warming consequences whirling around and colliding into each other because of the "boiling effect" and agitation of ever-increasing heat.
This colliding effect is similar to how the rising heat under a steam cooker whirls, churns, and collides the boiling water inside faster and faster. (To learn more about exactly how the 20 worst global warming consequences will harm most of our lives, click here.)
2. Once we reach the carbon 425-450 ppm level, there will be so much global warming temperature increasing momentum built up from all of the previously emitted carbon (and other greenhouse gases,) that it will also propel us to higher temperatures even faster! After we cross the climate cliff, stopping the ever-increasing momentum of global warming temperature increases will be like trying to stop a gigantic boulder from rolling faster and faster down a cliff that keeps getting steeper and steeper. And,
3. In case you're still somehow thinking or believing technology will save us at the last minute, no adequate carbon removal technologies will be able in time to save us. These new carbon-sucking technologies won't work in time. Even those who believe this technology might save us are projecting that they will not be adequately available until sometime after 2050. This 2050 date will be long after the damage is done and long after anything can be done for the billions of people who will suffer and die! (Please click here if you still have any illusions about new carbon removal technology miraculously saving us at the last minute. The science found there will help you to understand that the only way out of this imminent catastrophe is to radically reduce fossil fuel use globally to meet the 2025 targets.)
4. According to James Hansen, one of the world's most prominent climate researchers, a carbon 450 ppm level would eventually correspond to an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century, and the end of human civilization as we've come to know it.
5. We are in an unacknowledged global warming extinction emergency, and so far, the world is not even close to being on pace to hit our critical 2025 targets.
Never forget that if we fail to hit the 2025 targets, we lose our last chance to prevent going over other far worse global warming tipping points. These are the tipping points that will cause mass human, animal, and biological extinction within our lifetimes! They are also the tipping point that will generate economic, political, and social chaos long before we go extinct.
How failure to meet the 2025 targets will trigger the next two tipping points, which will severely affect your personal, business, and national finances, safety, and security over the next few decades!
Over the following decades, we are in for a shocking, chaotic, and deadly ride if we fail to hit our 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets. It is necessary to explain carbon in our atmosphere and the blue atmospheric CO2 graph below to help you grasp the horrific reality of what's coming.
Carbon is the current key greenhouse gas responsible for directly raising the average global temperature that we can control. Carbon level in the atmosphere is measured in parts per million (ppm.)
At this time additional controllable atmospheric carbon comes from our burning of fossil fuels. In fact, since the Industrial Revolution, most of this atmospheric carbon has been caused by fossil fuel burning. Because of the known effects of greenhouse gases like carbon, an increasing carbon ppm level in our atmosphere is one of the best, if not the best predictor of future global warming temperature increases or decreases.
Over the last 60 years, on average, for every additional 25 parts per million (ppm) of carbon that goes into the atmosphere, our average global temperature goes up .5 degrees Fahrenheit or about .25 degrees C. Understanding the consequences and tipping points at different atmospheric carbon levels is also the best way for the nations of the world to manage their future safety and security.
As of August 2019, we have about 414 parts per million (ppm) of carbon in our atmosphere. On average, over the last six decades, we are adding about an increase of 3 new carbon ppm into the atmosphere each year.
If you look at the trendline on the graph below, you can see we are in serious trouble! Using the graph below, you can see that global warming is getting worse.
This worsening is in spite of what you are hearing in the media. You can also see that atmospheric carbon is not only getting worse, but it is also getting worse at an even faster rate! (The upward curve of the graph line is getting steepeer.)
There are minor monthly variations in carbon ppm levels from year to year, as well as cyclical weather variations due to things like El Nino or La Nina. But, in spite of such normal carbon ppm variations, the dominant trend shown above for the last 70 years is carbon ppm rising, but at faster and faster annual rates.
Additionally, the damage that we are causing to our environment because of the above atmospheric carbon pollution and its consequent global warming will not reverse itself for hundreds to thousands of years! Imagine how survivors will curse us for what we have done of we do not get this emergency resolved.
What you will find in the sections below are the highlights about how, when and why the next wave of global warming tipping points will worsen our lives and bring about the extinction of most of humanity, not to mention economic, political and social chaos within our lifetimes. These are only the most critical tipping point highlights of a very complicated process involving climate, biological and human systems, and subsystems.
Now with the foundational information from above, you are ready for what will happen over the next few decades if we go over the carbon 425-450 ppm climate cliff.
The second most important tipping point which we will cross as soon as 2042-2067 or earlier
As our current atmospheric carbon rises, we will cross the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction level. We will also continue crossing more of the 11 critical global warming tipping points within the climate’s many systems and subsystems, but now at an even faster rate.
Once we go over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping climate cliff, we will inevitably cross the carbon 500 ppm level as soon as 2042-2067 or earlier. (Which specific tipping points we cross and how fast we add additional carbon to our atmosphere will determine when in that 2042-2067 time range we will hit carbon 500 ppm. Keep in mind we are adding on the average another 3 carbon ppm each year to the global atmosphere.)
When we cross the carbon 500 ppm level it is bad. ALL ice and ALL glaciers on Earth will enter a near-unstoppable process of a complete meltdown! Yes, you read that right!
Crossing the carbon 500 ppm threshold has, in fact, repeatedly happened in Earth's geological history. When it has occurred, the sea level inevitably rose to the 70 meters (230 feet) range.
At our current annual carbon ppm emission rates, we will reach the catastrophic and extinction evoking carbon 500 ppm range in only another 20-25 more years. (We are currently at carbon 414 ppm as of August 2019. In just 4 more years at our current rate of adding 3 carbon ppm per year, we will reach carbon 425 ppm which is the beginning of our falling off the climate cliff.)
If we cross this critical 500 ppm tipping point, our average global temperature will eventually soar to 4°C (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit). At 4°C, a large portion of humanity (hundreds of millions to billions) will die of starvation (or die and suffer from increased heat's 19 other related consequences. ) Governments and societies will collapse in most areas of the world between the 35th parallel north and the 35th parallel south.
Even though it will take many centuries for the seas to rise the full 230 feet range, there still will be shocking spurts of sea-level rise within those centuries where the sea level rise up to 10 feet or more in just a few decades. (It has done repeatedly in Earth's past.)
Take a moment to visualize the seas eventually, steadily and in intense spurts rising 230 feet. Imagine what this will mean to our coastal cities, our national borders and the generations that follow us?
Take a moment to visualize ever-increasing worldwide massive crop failures because of the ever-increasing heat. Fully understand the consequent mass suffering of slow starvation as we approach and pass the carbon 500 ppm-level.
Take a few more moments to let this all really sink in.
Anything at or above a 4°Celcius increase in average global temperature will be incompatible with an organized global society and would be beyond adaptation! This temperature and carbon level would also virtually guarantee we will hit carbon 600 ppm.
When we cross the carbon 500 ppm tipping point, we cross a steeper and even more slippery slope. We will then slide quickly into the carbon 600 ppm extinction level tipping point within another 25-30 years (as soon as 2063-2072 or earlier.)
When this happens we will once again, greatly accelerate the process of crossing even more global warming tipping points. This will once again further raise the average global temperature in a positive feedback loop,
Using the illustration below, imagine all of the global warming tipping points whirling around and colliding into each other because of the "boiling effect" or agitation of ever-increasing heat. This is much like how the rising heat under a steam cooker whirls and churns the water inside faster and faster.
(To learn more about how crossing global warming tipping points like those in the illustration above, accelerate other global warming consequences, causes sudden and complete system collapses, and make recovery much slower, harder and more expensive, click here.)
The third and most dangerous tipping point we will most probably cross as soon as 2063-2072 or earlier
We will most probably also cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction level. Crossing carbon 600 ppm will result in raising the average global temperature to 5° C (9 degrees Fahrenheit.) It will also bring about massive methane clathrate releases from coastal ocean shelves.
The 5° C (9 degrees Fahrenheit) has released methane clathrate before in the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum 56 million years ago, most notably in the Permian–Triassic extinction event, when up to 96% of all marine species became extinct, 252 million years ago. (Please click here to watch a short video that brilliantly explains the methane clathrate extinction process once we start releasing it in quantity from our coastal shelves.
We are already releasing large amounts of methane gas into the atmosphere from global warming melting tundra and permafrost. New research shows we will earnestly begin a massive methane release process once we reach 5° C and by 6° C, it is in full bloom.)
Because methane (from methane clathrate,) is 86 times more potent than carbon as a temperature increasing greenhouse gas, it will once again rapidly spike up the average global temperatures. The following is a methane graph (found at https://www.methanelevels.org) in which you can see how total atmospheric methane levels from all sources have exponentially skyrocketed, particularly during the last 50 years.
If it continues to rise to contribute to reaching the carbon 600 ppm tipping point, it will bring about an average global temperature increase of 5° C.
We will reach carbon 600 ppm by about 2063-2072. (Begin with the carbon 414 ppm level which we are at today, and then add only another 3 ppm of carbon each year.) We will be at carbon 600 ppm far, far faster than the world will be prepared for. Carbon 600 ppm will bring about the extinction of most if not all of humanity (70-90%,) and the end of civilization as we know it. We call this the final phases of the Climageddon Scenario.
This 2063-2072 arrival estimate for passing carbon 600 ppm is valid (600-415 equals about 185, 185 divided by 3 ppm per year equals 62 years.) Here's why this date estimate is valid:
First, believing that carbon ppm will remain only at 3 more carbon ppm per year with the world population growing from 7-9 billion by 2050 is entirely unrealistic.
Secondly, as temperatures rise, we will be releasing much more methane into the atmosphere as shown in the graph above. This additional methane will have the knock-on effect of further raising the average global temperature and moving us up to the carbon 600 ppm level even faster.
This undesirable methane fact is reflected by the total greenhouse gas measurement, sometimes called the carbon equivalent measurement. Our overall carbon equivalent or carbon footprint is measured in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e).
The carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) measurement allows the different greenhouse gases to be compared on a like-for-like basis relative to one unit of CO2.) When you factor in all of the above for how fast we will reach the carbon CO2e level of 600 ppm, we will be at carbon 600 ppm considerably sooner than 62 years from now!
In addition to the reasons mentioned earlier and beyond its high mathematical probability, numerous climate scientists believe that crossing the carbon 500 ppm is ALREADY inevitable! This inevitability is because we will soon pass through more climate, biological and human system tipping points (described on the top of this essential documentation page.)
This high probability does not even include the other accelerating global warming positive feedback loops already occurring throughout our climate system. (Positive feedback loops enhance or amplify changes; this also (like tipping points,) tends to move a system away from its equilibrium state and make it more unstable.)
The same climate scientists who believe that we cannot prevent crossing carbon 500 ppm, also believe that no matter what we do, we have already missed our window of opportunity to control and to avoid crossing carbon 600 ppm. Furthermore, they believe that once we have passed the carbon 500 ppm level, we will not be able to keep from reaching carbon 800 ppm. Reaching carbon 800 ppm would be because of continuing to add more carbon into the atmosphere each year as well as the total accumulating heat increasing effects of crossing more global warming tipping points.
Our reading of the current science indicates that if we do not successfully enact the previously described 2025 global fossil fuel reductions, we will cross the carbon 600 ppm-level. At Job One we believe that If we do enact the necessary 2025 fossil fuel cuts, there is an acceptable possibility that we can still keep from crossing the carbon 600 ppm final tipping point.
At the minimum, we can slow it down long enough so that we can save some small portion of humanity and transfer needed infrastructure into the global warming safer zones. (We only way we will save humanity from extinction is by enacting the 2025 actions described in part three of the Job One Plan.)
At worst, even if we can not still prevent crossing the carbon 600 ppm level, we can at least, slow it down as well as some of the other coming global warming consequences. Slowing down crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point will be a Herculean task of massive global governmental cooperation and mobilization.
The probability that we can at least temporarily, slow and delay some of the other of the 20 worst global warming consequences by hitting our 2025 targets is high. Even if we fail to hit the 2025 targets, the 2025 actions will allow us more time to get prepared for the global warming consequences which we can no longer avoid, no matter what we do!)
It is essential to be realistic for your future planning. As you can see, the probability that we will cross the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point is far too high for any rational individual, business or nation to tolerate.
If we do not made the 2025 global fossil fuel cuts necessary, our last window of opportunity to prevent passing over the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point will close. This loss of control of our global warming future is in part because of the:
a. temperature momentum already "baked" into the climate system (the existing carbon 414 ppm level already in the atmosphere,)
b. the additional 3 or more carbon particles per million we continue to add to the atmosphere each year (as we keep failing to reduce our fossil fuel use adequately,) and
c. The additional heat-increasing global warming tipping points we will continue to cross at an even faster rate if we miss our 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets.
Never forget that at 5°C (which will occur once we hit carbon 600 ppm and above,) a large portion of humanity (70-90% or more,) will die of starvation. This massive die-off will be primarily because of the devastating effect that increased heat will have on crop failure or from global warming's other 19 worst consequences or its 11 key tipping points.) Economies, governments, and societies will collapse in many areas of the world between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south.
As we reach the carbon 500 ppm and carbon 600 ppm tipping point levels, we will also cross into the later and most dangerous later phases of the 6-phased Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown model (the Climageddon Scenario.) Review the following Climageddon Extinction Scenario illustration (Global Warming and the Climageddon Scenario Cascading Meltdown,) starting from the bottom up!
The top of the diagram below shows you the later Climageddon Scenario consequences the bottom shows you the earlier consequences. The illustration below reflects the unfolding natural progression of ever-worsening consequences, tipping points, and human and other system processes that will accelerate as global warming continues.
These consequences, tipping points, and various climate, human and biological systems will also synergetically and cumulatively collide with each other and adversely interact. It is these ever-increasing interactions among and between worsening global warming consequences, tipping points, and other systems that will make most of these things worse faster and faster.
This illustration below also reflects the final processes that will lead to our mass extinction as well as into global economic, political, and social chaos. Its three levels of global warming interactions (consequences, tipping points, and human systems at the top of the illustration,) highlight the continuous onslaught of crisis and catastrophes that we are already experiencing. They also collectively foretell how these catastrophes will escalate into our eventual extinction.
Start reading the large illustration below only from the bottom up because that is how the global warming extinction emergency will unfold as the average global temperatures continue to increase. Increasing heat will intensify almost all of the items below and causes many them to interact in positive feedback loops with each other making things even worse.
Take a moment and think about reaching the carbon 600 ppm tipping point (which can occur as soon as 2063-2072, or possibly earlier.) Here we trigger the final processes that will bring about the extinction of as much as 70 to 90% of humanity if not more. (When in that 2063-2072 time range we will hit carbon 600 ppm will be determined by which tipping points we cross and how much and how fast we add additional carbon to our atmosphere.)
Unfortunately, long before we have reached the carbon 600 ppm level tipping point, global civilization will have begun collapsing. At or near the carbon 600 ppm level, any unlucky survivors will enter into an ecological and climate hell. We will enter a new dark age that will make the survivors of the following centuries curse us and wish they were dead.
(The global warming consequences, tipping points, and human system factors (shown above,) will be interacting and colliding with each other in 6 distinct phases. At some point, after you finish this document, we strongly recommend that you read about the 6 phases of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown here. It describes the timetables and consequences of our global warming future if we miss the 2025 targets in great detail.)
How the three extinction-evoking tipping points of carbon 425, 500 and 600 ppm create a condition where global warming management becomes out of humanity's future control
What most people do not fully realize is that at some soon point after passing the first tipping point of carbon 425-450 ppm, we will no longer be able to avoid unimaginable future global warming catastrophes or mass extinction. After we cross the carbon 425 ppm climate cliff, our loss of control is because we will begin triggering:
- evermore natural climate system tipping points.
- much larger naturally occurring methane releases from the tundra, permafrost, and ocean shelves.
- additional natural carbon releases from our deep oceans, trees, and soils.
Eventually, these natural systems will go into positive feedback loops with each other or cross their own internal tipping points. These positive feedback loops will once again increase the average global temperature. This further triggers increased-heat caused releases of evermore naturally generated methane and carbon, which once again, further increases average global temperature in an endless cycle. Unfortunately, these increasing temperatures will go on and on until the Earth finally corrects itself hundreds or thousands of years in the future.
Unlike humanity's remaining ability to control and regulate its use of fossil fuels, if we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point, control of our future transfers to nature's control! There will be nothing we can do to keep the other natural sources of carbon and methane from crossing their own internal tipping points or entering into positive feedback loops. Once we pass the carbon 425-450 tipping point, nature takes over and global warming becomes a runaway train of ever-increasing average global temperature lasting for centuries or longer.
Humanity's inability to control these large, complex natural systems, tipping points and positive feedback loops IS the most crucial reason why we cannot fail to meet the 2025 global targets. If we do not meet the 2025 targets, as soon as 2025, we will let any remaining control of the global warming extinction emergency slip out our hands for many human lifespans.
We do not have until 2050, 2040 or 2035 to make the required global fossil fuel reductions to save ourselves as many governments and fossil fuel companies want you to believe. We also do not have until even 2030 to make the required fossil fuel reductions as many prominent but ill-informed environmental groups want you to believe.
We have only until 2025 to make the required global fossil fuel reductions to prevent going over the carbon 425-450 ppm climate cliff and losing all meaningful control of our global warming future.
This extinction emergency creates a series of compelling 600 trillion dollar questions hanging in the air: (600 trillion dollars plus is the estimate for the total global warming damage costs that we will occur if some of us manage to survive.)
1. Why aren't the brightest minds in the world's intelligence agencies screaming at their national politicians about meeting the 2025 targets and this nearly out of control extinction emergency?
3. Why aren't our intelligence agencies (as well as the world's wealthiest individuals and corporations,) getting our politicians to realize that they have exp1osed ALL of humanity to an imminent and an irrational extinction? (More will be said about this in the next section.)
The above listed natural system climate tipping points and positive feedback loops are complicated, but we have further simplified their descriptions and interactions on this page. This page also will help you understand how the increasing methane releases from the tundra, permafrost, and ocean shelves will occur as well as how massive new carbon releases from our deep oceans, trees, and soils will occur.
An extreme and imminent threat that humanity has only faced in one other area
Because escalating global warming and its tipping points are happening at a global level, we find ourselves at an extreme and unconscionable threat level. In just a few decades, the threat of the global warming extinction emergency will wreak its havoc on almost everyone.
The current global warming threat is extreme because:
- Its consequences are already intensifying in severity, frequency, and scale and will soon begin do so exponentially.
- Its tipping points will continue to be crossed at faster and faster rates. These crossed tipping points will produce more heat increases even faster and massive climate, biological, and human system crashes.
The time nearness of this threat is imminent because our emergency is developing on a timescale of just a few decades. This is very unlike the centuries or millennia developmental timescales which have occurred in each of Earth's five previous major extinction events.
Our current extinction threat is no longer just possible or probable. Once we cross the carbon 425 ppm climate cliff, the extinction threat becomes near-certain. When we pass the carbon 500 and 600 ppm tipping points, it IS a certain human, animal, and biological extinction catastrophe.
Once we go over the carbon 425 - 450 ppm climate cliff, our extinction threat level rises to a level comparable to the threat level of a highly probable global nuclear war occurring soon. This is why the extreme threat level is merited. The accumulated destruction caused by global warming over the coming decades has the full capability of equaling or exceeding the devastation, suffering, and death of a global nuclear war.
Our politicians have ignored 35 years of scientific warnings. Our politicians have utterly failed to do their jobs. Our politicians have failed to protect us and manage this imminent and extreme threat, which not only threatens their nation and citizens, but also the survival of humanity and civilization itself.
Our politicians have successfully managed the global nuclear threat for the last 75 years. They also have done almost nothing over the last 35 years relating to the equal and eventually even higher risk of global warming extinction. Our global warming extinction emergency will unfold as the "ultimate disruptor" over the next 3 to 5 decades. Already it is causing considerable global financial loss, death, and hardship.
While you are legitimately panicking over all of this bad news, never forget that only by meeting the 2025 targets can we prevent Earth's sixth great extinction. Never forget that the global warming extinction emergency is not just the greatest disruptor of the 21st century, itis also the ultimate no-win game!
If you still have any confusion on how crossing global warming tipping points will lead us to mass extinction within your lifetime, please click here for detailed global warming tipping point documentation. (Click here for information to help you overcome your legitimate panic or remember this link as you read the next even worse news section.)
The Final Lose/Lose Shocker: Why our politicians and governments must work together and mass mobilize immediately to achieve the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets, or NO ONE will survive!
There are other hyper-critical factors to be carefully planned for in the nightmare carbon 500 and 600 ppm global warming scenarios we will face. As if the proceeding was not enough to convince any rational individual that they need to do everything within their power to get their governments to meet the 2025 reduction targets to slow and lessen global warming so they can survive, there is yet more terrible news.
As global warming worsens to its near-extinction levels, we will also have to deal with the following humanity and civilization-ending realities:
a. Nuclear reactors in global warming unsafe zones between the 45th parallel north and south will no longer be safe. They will no longer be able to be kept secure or maintained by functioning governments as global warming worsens. If these nuclear reactors go critical and meltdown as they most certainly will, it will not matter where you migrate to in the world.
No location or bunker will be safe from the continuous massive radiation fallout from scores to hundreds of Chernobil-like reactors. Worse yet, once these reactors go critical, they will spew deadly radiation for centuries! (There are about 400 nuclear reactors currently in the area between the 45 parallels north and south.)
Unfortunately, the same holds for all biological or chemical weapons or toxic chemicals stored in any areas with collapsing or collapsed governments. Once those areas are abandoned, lawless or in chaos, these world-ending toxic commodities will either be seized or slowly leak out and poison areas far beyond their original locations.
b. Critical large scale food production above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south will be highly limited. This food crisis will be because of the soil quality and the lower seasonal sunlight levels will be grossly inadequate for using traditional or existing food production methods. We will not be able to grow enough food for the desperate billions of climagees migrating to these areas. Somehow the governments of the world will have to find a way to cooperate and to fairly and wisely limit how many people can occupy the limited safer zones and still be fed.
Trying to limit the number of desperate climagees who can inhabit the few remaining global warming safer zones by force or special lottery will be beyond difficult. Any such action will of itself create unimaginable social chaos, panic, and conflict that will keep those living in the global warming safer zones under continuous threat. At best because of the nuclear reactors toxic weapons and the coming border wars, anyone living in those limited, safer zones will only have temporary relief.
c. If you do not allow enough genetically diverse individuals from the global warming unsafe zones to migrate, there will not be enough genetic diversity to survive the waves of new diseases that will burn through the far north or far south. These new diseases will emerge because of thousands-of-year-old unknown and known pathogens being increasingly released from the melting permafrost (which humanity has never seen before and has no immunity.) Additionally, these global warming safer zones will also be under threat from new pathogens or existing pathogens that are always mutating. Only adequate genetic diversity will guarantee that at least someone will survive. And,
d. For any of us to survive similarly to what we are used to, the world's critical infrastructure needed for a functioning modern civilization must be moved to the safer zones within the next 5-15 years. We must wisely use whatever relative political, economic, and social stability that remains.
This means that to save even a small percentage of humanity, we should already be moving critical industries like medical, pharmaceutical, manufacturing, etc. This infrastructure move also involves moving administrative, policing, and other social structures into the limited "Goldilocks" global warming safe zones. (These safer zones most generally exist above the 45th to 55th parallels north or below the 45th to 55th parallels south.)
At some point, if we don't get fossil fuel usage under control by 2025, even the most optimistic person will recognize nothing will save them other than only temporarily. From the totality of everything they are facing, they will also realize that it has come down to this final simple truth --- we either cooperate and work together to meet the 2025 targets or we die together.
We are no longer in just an emergency to prevent global warming from getting worse. We are in an all-out war to prevent mass human, animal, and biological extinction and economic, social, and political chaos within our lifetimes.
As long as we keep thinking about gradually managing the vague threat of "climate change," we are focusing on the wrong target. We will fail in preventing our extinction.
Our governments need to shift their focus to meeting the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets at all costs! This new focus is the only way to prevent global warming mass extinction within our lifetimes
(The specific actions steps needed to get our governments to meet the 2025 targets are found within Part 3 of the Job One Plan,)
Essential questions to ask about your own, your businesses' and your nation's progress on the 2025 global fossil fuel targets
If you are in a developed country, here are some crucial questions to ask yourself:
How are you doing on reducing your total personal fossil fuel use this year by 25%?
How is the business that you are working at doing in reducing its total annual fossil fuel use this year by 25%?
How is your nation doing in reducing its total annual fossil fuel use by its 25% target fort his year?
It is critical to keep in mind that hitting the 2025 targets is tantamount for avoiding the likelihood of entering the extinction process. Consequently, the greatest emphasis must be made to reach this first target level.
Reaching your annual targets is important because, for every year any individual, business or nation does not hit their targets, it causes their fossil fuel reduction targets for the following years to be further increased to make up for all differences!
If you, your business or your nation is not making its targets, please do not despair or do not beat yourself up. We have no time to waste for those kinds of activities.
Here's what you can do if you're not hitting your annual targets:
1. see what is needed to get our governments to execute all of the critical 2025 radical fossil fuel reducing actions (found prioritized in Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
2. see what is needed to get the world's wealthiest individuals and corporations to recognize this is a no-win game for them as well. Once they see that no amount of money will save them in the long run, they will use their vastly more powerful influence to get the world's politicians to get the 2025 targets achieved. (Please see Part 4 of the Job One Plan.)
3. understand what is needed to get ourselves and our businesses to execute the annual 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets listed above and as described in Part 2 of our Job One Plan.
If you are in a developing country, here are some crucial questions to ask yourself:
How are you doing on reducing your personal total annual fossil fuel use for this year to meet your target of no new fossil fuel use?
How is the business that you are working at doing in reducing its total annual fossil fuel use for this year to meet their targets?
How is your nation doing in reducing its total annual fossil fuel use by its target for this year?
It is critical to keep in mind that hitting your annual and 2025 reduction targets is equivalent to avoiding entering a mass human, animal, and biological species extinction event process. Please also keep in mind that for every year any individual, business, or nation does not hit their targets, it causes their targets for the following years to be increased accordingly.
If you, your business or your nation is not making its targets, do not despair and do not beat yourself up. We have no time to waste for those kinds of activities.
If you're not hitting your personal or business annual targets, here's what you can get started on immediately:
1. see what is needed to get our governments to execute all of the critical 2025 radical fossil fuel reducing actions (found prioritized in Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
2. see what is needed to get the world's wealthiest individuals and corporations to recognize this is a no-win game for them as well. No amount of money will save them in the long run.
Once they realize this, they will use their vastly more powerful influence to get the world's politicians to get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets achieved on time. (Please see Part 4 of the Job One Plan.)
3. understand what is needed to get ourselves and our businesses to execute the annual fossil fuel reduction targets listed above and as described in Part 2 of our Job One Plan.
Conclusion: Read this especially if you are discouraged or, you don't believe we can meet the last-chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets
As the research and analysis verification links in this document reveal, there no longer such a thing as a program of gradual fossil fuel reduction being a viable alternative any longer. We squandered that option with our last 35 years of procrastination, denial, and delay in effectively reducing our global fossil fuel use.
Because of our lost 35 years of denial and delay, what we need to do now will be radical, painful, and costly. That is now the price of our future if, we want to have any future at all.
Don't be fooled. This emergency is not far off in the future.
This emergency is now and not a "get to it later" problem for you or your children later in their life. It directly or indirectly will adversely affect you and your children within your lifetimes!
By 2025 we will know if we are locked into the path of likely extinction. We will see if we will be able to salvage any livable future for humanity for the second half of this 21st century and for the centuries to follow.
What this implies is that we also will know if we are at the practical end of history and everything humanity has ever cared about.
We do not often engage in conversations about the extinction of our species, but now is the time to do so with your friends and associates. Failure to hit the 2025 reduction targets means mass human, animal, and biological extinction within our lifetimes! That is what we mean when we say we are in a "global warming extinction emergency."
Right now this self-made suicidal tragedy is already affecting hundreds of millions of people around the world. Over the next 10 to 20+ years; it's going to get far worse even faster, affecting billions.
Most people do realize that mass human, animal, and biological extinction within their lifetime is unthinkably horrible. What they do not realize is that massive global warming catastrophes will start occurring more frequently long before the above 3 tipping point extinction process runs its full course. Within the next decade or two, we will begin seeing a significant acceleration of worldwide global warming disasters and catastrophes.
These disasters will continue to increase in frequency, severity, and scale in an oscillating pattern. This pattern is where the oscillation of these new weather extremes becomes worse and worse and then occurs at closer and closer intervals. Long before this global warming-fueled mass extinction reaches its peak 30-50 years from now, our economic, political, and social systems will experience widespread chaos and collapse.
If you can imagine hell on Earth, you would be adequately seeing our quickly developing future.
The good news...
What you can do to ensure mass extinction does not happen or at least, survive longer, if we lose this battle
To survive mass human extinction within our lifetimes, we must all stay calm and carry on. We must also get the world's politicians to act now because we are currently not at all safe or secure!
In the priority order given below, we must come together to take the following four life-critical action steps to save and salvage what we can before it is too late:
1. if you can directly influence any politicians, get them to understand this extinction emergency and execute the 2025 global fossil fuel reducing actions (these governmental actions are found prioritized in Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
2. if you have any direct or indirect connections to the world's elites (i.e. ultra-wealthy corporations, individuals, celebrities, philanthropies, etc.,) get these elites to recognize this emergency is a no-win game for them as well. Help them realize that no amount of money, power, or fame will save them in the long run.
Once they understand this, many of them will use their own powerful direct influence on the world's politicians to get them to get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets achieved on time. (Please see Part 4 of the Job One Plan for help with this step.)
3. while doing 1 and 2 above, as individuals or as businesses work toward meeting the 2025 critical fossil fuel reduction targets as described in the fossil fuel reduction actions found in Part 2 of our Job One Plan.
4. While doing 1, 2, and 3 above, get busy on your personal emergency backup Plan B. Starting Plan B is critical because the probability that we will meet the very challenging 2025 targets is extremely low. (In addition to what you have read above, see this page for many reasons it will be beyond challenging to meet the 2025 targets.)
And finally, the big remaining question is... are you going to do your urgently needed part to help make these 2025 last chance fossil fuel reductions happen?
Your and your children's immediate future depends upon the choices you make and what to do in this life and death emergency.
Ultimately, we will either succeed together, or we will die together!
The most important things to remember from this page!
1. There is only one real global warming deadline that is necessary to burn into your mind.
If we miss the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets, much of humanity as well as many animal and biological species will go extinct within our lifetimes!
2. If we miss the 2025 targets, no new technology can scale up fast enough to save us! It really is our last chance! Our ability to maintain any real or meaningful control over this emergency ends just after we enter go over the climate cliff and breach the carbon 425-450 ppm range in 2025.
3. It is the pure physics and mathematics of global warming temperature dynamics that will take over after we go over the climate cliff to drive our temperatures ever higher past 3, 4 and 5 degrees Celsius.
4. If we do not make the 2025 targets, our last chance, and final window opportunity to effectively control our own destiny regarding preventing even worse extinction level tipping points from being crossed literally closes! If we go over the climate cliff, the worst consequences of global warming will not only increase in severity, frequency, and scale, they will also come at us faster and faster. Eventually, everything we depend upon in an organized society for our survival becomes so unstable that organized society can no longer exist. At that not too distant point, we then starve to death, or die in resource scarcity collapses or conflicts or, in "migrate or die" chaos, or in national conflicts.
5. The largest illustration on this page (above,) the Global Warming and the Climageddon Scenario Cascading Meltdown reflects the unfolding natural progression of ever-worsening consequences, tipping points and human system processes that will accelerate as global warming continues. These consequences, tipping points, and human systems will also synergetically and cumulatively collide with each other and adversely interact. It is these ever-increasing interactions among and between worsening global warming consequences, tipping points and human systems that will make each of these things worse faster and faster.
This illustration reflects the core of the final processes that will lead to our mass extinction as well as into global economic, political and social chaos. Its three levels of global warming interactions (consequences, tipping points, and human systems,) highlight the continuous onslaught of emergencies, crisis, and catastrophes that we are already experiencing and which foretell our eventual extinction if we fail to reach the 2025 targets.
6. While you personally can do some things on your own to reduce global warming, there is nothing you can do individually (or even in large groups,) to effectively hit the 2025 targets. It is now a last chance governmental responsibility to save us. The 2025 targets can only be achieved by governments working together and immediately issuing new global warming reduction laws and then verifying and enforcing that they are followed to hit the 2025 targets. To get our governments in action, we need to get our politicians in action first! Part 4 of the Job One plan will help you do this!
7. Not making the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets is the ultimate no-win game because we are in truth facing an extinction event and the possibility of this emergency becoming the Sixth Great Extinction Event in human history. What must be realized is that we must do only and exactly what is necessary to meet the 2025 targets.Getting lost on actions, not forwarding the 2025 targets critical path is at best distractions and at worst, measures that will amount to "too little too late" to save us.
8. It is critically important to also understand that no compensatory calculations for the effects of any global warming tipping points being crossed were ever included in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC,) calculations for precisely how much we have to reduce our global fossil fuel use to save ourselves from extinction. This is important because the IPCC's global fossil fuel reduction calculations are currently being used by all of the member governments of the United Nations (about 190 countries,) for setting their own internal national fossil fuel reduction programs. This horrific failure to include crossing any global warming tipping points in our current global and national fossil fuel reduction calculations is also true for the world's most recent 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. This omission of including proper calculations for crossing global warming tipping points as the world continues to warm is the recipe for mutually assured destruction. Yes, this failure to include allowance calculations for crossed tipping points shockingly also means that the national fossil fuel reduction programs of every member of the United Nations using the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement targets is also based on incomplete and inaccurate calculations.
9. Most of you that have understood the previous facts (that do not fall into a natural and defensive denial,) will appropriately feel shocked, sad, angry or even betrayed. The most logical and best thing to do to deal with those often overwhelming feelings is to work for "the best" while you prepare for "the worst," just in case we fail. What this means is that you will need to focus as much as your energy and resources on just two main action strategies:
a. Get busy with emergency preparations and adaptations for you, your family and/or your business for many of the now unavoidable consequences that will be arriving soon no matter what we do and in case we fail to hit the 2025 targets. (Click here to begin this process.) and,
b. Get busy on getting the 2025 reduction targets met by getting our governments enacting and enforcing the laws needed to reach the 2025 targets. (Click here to learn what you need to know to get started on this.)
These two action-based strategies will minimize the natural feelings of being shocked, sad, angry or feeling completely betrayed by our current world leaders until you can get additional emotional support or assistance from other outside sources or from working through the Kubler Ross model on your own.
10. There are only a few things you can always be sure of in this global warming emergency. In spite of all of the challenges and probable adverse outcomes. The few things that you can always be sure of relating to creating our best possible global warming outcomes is that even if we fail to meet the 2025 targets:
a. The faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use, the more people that will survive to carry on humanity.
b. The faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use, the less future generations will suffer from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming catastrophes. And,
Also never forget, we still have time left to:
1. make the required 2025 radical fossil fuel reductions,
2. complete the necessary emergency preparations, and to
3. adapt to soon-arriving global warming consequences that we can no longer change.
(Many key areas of this document were derived from the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown document. It breaks down the complex global warming processes at the next level to help prove to you that the technical details above are accurate. If you have not yet read about the six phases of the Climageddon extinction scenario, which will take you level-by-level through the consequence and timetable details as humanity moves ever closer to extinction, we strongly recommend doing do so now by clicking here.)
Why are only a few of the world's thousands of environmental groups promoting the real 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines?
The most correct answer is that most of these environmental groups have been cleverly and invisibly deceived into accepting the incorrect analysis and interpretations of current global warming research by hidden vested interests and compromised bureaucratic "authorities."
Click here to read about how our current grossly inadequate global fossil fuel reduction targets are being presented to the general public. These targets have been twisted and promoted by hidden vested interests who have literally "cooked the books" and the proper calculations needed for honest and accurate targets.
Click here to read about other key systemic global warming consequence and timetable deception.
After reading the above two links, you now know why so many groups are promoting the wrong global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines. Please do everything you can to get the information on this page to these groups and the world's politicians!
A quick and simple way you can immediately help get the very challenging 2025 targets achieved
Only a handful of ecological organizations are promoting the real 2025 targets. If you have a connection to any of the following ecological groups, Greenpeace, World Wildlife Fund, 350.org, MoveOn.org the Sierra Club (or any other major ecological organizations around the world,) please help get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets information to them. Directly ask them to adjust their educational and promotional materials accordingly.
We are facing enormous challenges trying to get the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets achieved with so little time left. The last thing we need is the leaders in environmental education, providing out-of-date, incorrect, or fossil fuel lobbyist twisted global fossil fuel reduction targets and wrong deadlines!
Job One for Humanity needs your personal help in reaching every major environmental group on the planet with the correct 2025 targets. At least this way, everyone in the environmental movement is aiming at the correct destination on the correct deadlines.
If we can't make this happen with educational organizations fully dedicated to saving the environment, humanity, the animals, and the other biological species, how will we ever get our politicians on to achieving the correct 2025 global reduction targets? (When you do this educational action be sure to be a respectful disruptor described in this link.)
If You are Feeling Sad, Angry or Anxious About Global Warming or hitting the 2025 targets? Here is What to do Next.
Click this link and start feeling better.
Important technical details on how the the 2025 targets were created
Here are the technical facts, footnotes, and disclosures which affect the validity of the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets described at the top of this document. The following information is for fellow researchers and techies who want more detail behind the calculations and factors involved in calculating the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets listed at the top of the page.
This information is also useful in that it shows you what is missing or wrong with the other 2050, 2040, 2035 and 2030 global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines now being promoted by governments, the United Nations and most environmental groups.
Here are qualifying and essential facts and factors relevant to calculating the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets:
1. To make the above 2025 reduction calculations work to save humanity from extinction, both China and India can no longer be considered developing nations. They must be required to make the same fossil fuel reduction targets as all other developed nations. This inclusion is necessary at this time because they are producing far too much of the world's total carbon emissions. China is already the world's largest fossil fuel polluter. There will be no way to meet the already severe fossil fuel reduction targets if they are not placed into the developed nation's category.
2. Like almost all other 2050-2040 2035 and 2030 fossil fuel reduction targets, the above 2025 global fossil fuel reduction amounts and calculations also do not include any of the false and grossly misleading atmospheric carbon capture technology reduction calculations and "compensations" currently being included in our current international fossil fuel reduction calculations and the fossil fuel reduction treaties. These future carbon capture compensations are being used by "trusted authorities" like the IPCC, (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ) almost all governments and environmental groups.
The IPCC's newest global fossil fuel reduction target and deadline is "a global reduction in all fossil fuel use by 40% by 2030." This 40% level is far too little, far too late to save use from grave danger in the future.
The reasons the IPCC targets and 2030 deadline being far too little far too late in part is as follows:
a. The current IPCC carbon capture calculations reverse backward into today's IPCC's calculations extensive compensatory fossil fuel use allowances for what our current fossil fuel reductions should be. They base these allowances for burning more fossil fuel today because of the unproven future atmospheric carbon removal success of negative emission technologies (NETs.)
Yes that does not make sense. Quite unbelievably, the IPPC relies upon that NETs may be put into successful operation at the proper scale sometime after 2050 for the carbon allowances they using today in today's reduction targets. (NETs are also sometimes called BECCS (bio-energy with carbon capture and storage.)
This also means that these miraculous and nonexistent atmospheric carbon removal technologies will not be deployed in time to meet the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
The IPCC's current mathematical reliance upon these "will be working after 2050 magical "carbon sucking unicorns" when setting today's reduction targets, allows the IPCC and the government's of the world to delude the general public as to the real nature of the worldwide warming extinction emergency. It also enables the IPCC to foist bogus and grossly inadequate current carbon reduction targets upon unsuspecting populations.
This also allows unsuspecting national populations to believe they are safe when, in fact, they are in grave peril.
These false IPCC calculations have also fooled most of the world's largest environmental groups. They have also relied on the IPCC's estimates for the current global fossil fuel reduction calculations. These false IPCC calculations are allowing the fossil fuel industries and fossil fuel producing nations to continue with "business as usual" while the rest of the society believes there is no or little urgency for reaching the 2025 global targets listed above.
The carbon capture technologies (NETs) which are currently projected by the IPCC to eventually keep (or return) the average global temperature to near 2°C do so by removing about 100 gigatons of carbon from the atmosphere. With no scientific testing at scale, the IPCC also believes that these magical carbon sucking unicorns operating sometime after 2050 can remove 100 gigatons of carbon from the atmosphere without any disastrous or even worse side effects.
To help you get an idea of just how big our atmospheric carbon capture problem is, consider that one gigatonne or metric gigaton (unit of mass) is equal to 1,000,000,000 metric tons. One hundred gigatons would equal 100 billion metric tons or 100,000,000,000 metric tons.
Carbon capture is an important and complex issue which should not be relevant to setting the correct and honest current global fossil fuel reduction targets to save humanity and the future. Please click here for the whole crazy story about how these magical carbon sucking unicorns are being used in critical fossil fuel reduction calculations by the IPCC, the world's governments and most of the world's environmental organizations to set (or promote,) the current global fossil fuel reduction calculations.
b. Unfortunately, our governments also have been giving global warming predictions and fossil fuel reduction calculations that include a 25-40% underestimation factor. They have also been not including any calculations for any of the 11 key tipping points being crossed.
When you add these two factors back into the prediction calculations to correct them, it becomes obvious that if we miss our 2025 reduction targets, we will be facing our worst higher temperature nightmares far faster than we are even remotely prepared. To read about the politicizing of the science and math in the United Nations calculations as well as their underestimation and tipping point exclusion errors, click here.
3. The above 2025 reduction calculations also do not include any extra reduction percentage or calculations for the massive spikes in carbon and methane emissions. These spikes will occur when we closely approach or cross new permafrost and tundra melting global warming tipping points.
To be safe, the 2025 percentages for fossil fuel emissions reduction should be significantly higher by another 10-15% to allow for approaching or crossing more global warming tipping points. Not allowing any fossil fuel reduction compensatory calculations for any tipping point crossing issues amounts to planning for perfection. Planning for perfection is always planning to fail. Click here to learn more about the tipping points that will suddenly release massive additional amounts of carbon and methane into the atmosphere.
4. The 2025 reduction calculations above are based on current and projected carbon CO2 levels in the atmosphere provided by the United Nations. They do not show the total levels of all greenhouse gases now in our atmosphere as tracked by CO2e. (CO2e measures ALL major greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.)
Because the calculations above also do not include the necessary reductions for methane and the other greenhouse gases as tracked by CO2e, the reduction calculations above probably should also be increased by another 2 to 4%. This additional 2 to 4% reduction would in part allow for the factor that methane is 86 times more potent for increasing global warming than carbon as Co2 in our atmosphere. As shocking as it sounds, methane releases into the atmosphere from fracking or natural gas distribution is seldom measured or regulated by countries around the world, including the US.
5. The above 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets also do not include any of the fossil fuel emissions currently produced by all import-export activities between nations. These extra emissions are significant because of ocean cargo ships, trains, planes and other methods used for international import-export transport produce a lot all global fossil fuel emissions. For some reason which defies logic, those scientists charged by the governments to measure and regulate global fossil fuel emissions also have carved out a political exemption for measuring or regulating this particular category of emissions, which could be up to 2 % of the world's total fossil fuel emissions.
6. There are no effective international agreements on climate justice regarding the exact differences in required fossil fuel reductions between developed and developing nations. All that exists today which considers equity, and existing global warming treaty responsibilities is the usually ignored and unenforceable UNFCCC treaty.
This is the treaty most of the world signed and ratified. It's operating principles began with "Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities." The problem here is there is that no treaty agreement specifies the proportionate remedial responsibilities based on who did the damage. There is also no treaty on the required differences in fossil fuel reductions that each developed or developing country must make.
To make matters worse, the US and many other nations are currently not abiding by existing fossil fuel reduction treaties. Due to the nature of this emergency, to resolve current inadequacies and the inadequacies of past global warming treaties and agreements, it was necessary to come up with at least something valid, workable and just reduction calculation that could be put into action immediately. This is our plan where developing nations were given far less initial fossil fuel reduction requirements and a longer time to reach net-zero carbon emissions. In short, the 2025 reductions mentioned above are REAL and necessary, and they can work to avert the extinction threat.
7. Having carbon neutrality, or a net-zero carbon footprint means achieving net-zero carbon emissions by balancing any measured amounts of carbon dioxide C02 released into the atmosphere with an equivalent measured quantity of carbon dioxide taken from the atmosphere and being captured for long-term storage (see carbon sequestration). In the Job One Plan, this carbon capture and sequestration(CCS) should happen almost exclusively through our already-existing natural biological, chemical, and physical processes. (See this definition of global warming for illustrations on how the climate's heat controlling systems and processes handle carbon capture and sequestration among other things).
Net-zero carbon emissions by 2035 or sooner for developed nations and 2045 or sooner for developing nations is a challenging subgoal to achieve. It will also require that strong financial disincentives be placed on fossil fuel use as well as keeping almost all of existing fossil fuels in the ground and never burned (coal, oil, natural gas, tar sands, etc.) While doing this, we will also have to be heavily incentivizing natural carbon sequestration methods, as discussed in Part 3 of the Job One Plan.
8. Once we get to net-zero carbon emissions by 2035 for the developed nations, and 2045 for the developing nations we still aren't safe. There is much left to get done to restore our climate's long term natural atmospheric carbon balance back down at around carbon 270-300 ppm (its preindustrial level.)
9. The Job One Plan or any other legitimate plans for achieving net-zero carbon emissions also do not endorse Cap and Trade methods of arriving at net zero carbon and carbon-neutrality through offset schemes. Current Cap and Trade methods are too often a disguise for "business as usual." They will not get us to the critical fossil fuel reduction levels we need in the extremely limited time left to keep us from crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point. In Job One's targeted version of getting to carbon-neutrality, we use a method called Fee and Dividend (discussed in part three of our Job One Plan.) In our plan, you will not be able to buy Cap and Trade carbon credits to make up the difference and achieve net-zero carbon emissions through buying offsets because that inevitably promotes more fossil fuel burning.
10. Net-zero carbon emission calculations from fossil fuel use by 2035 in developed and developing countries could allow for a minimal amount of fossil fuel use for agriculture and medical uses.
11. The required fossil fuel reduction calculations discussed above are based on attempting to keep the average global temperature from rising two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. It is calculated that if we cross that 2°C maximum level of average global temperature increase above the preindustrial level, somehow we will be able to control the extremely slippery slope which will quickly lead us to 3, 4 and 5° Celsius increases in average global temperature.
There is additional strong evidence beyond what has been discussed above that; even if we are successful in achieving the 2025 targets, the average global temperature will still rise to 3°C and likely beyond with many unavoidable and horrendous consequences. This 3°C and beyond means that we have a real problem as far as making the only the above-required fossil fuel reductions.
We have to make the required 2025 fossil fuel reductions no matter what! It is also highly likely that even those steep fossil fuel reductions are still not enough to avoid unthinkable suffering or the wide-scale reduction of the human population by as much as 50%.
On the other side of this painful quandary is an even scarier fact. If we do not make the 2025 targets, it is very likely that we will lose nearly everybody in as little as 30 to 50 years. In 30-50 years, as much as 70 to 90% of humanity (if not all,) will suffer and die.
What other choice do we have other than to make the required 2025 fossil fuel reductions while at the same time knowing we're probably going to have to make even steeper fossil fuel reductions as more research becomes available?
What we do know is this. No matter what, and in spite of all of the challenges and adverse outcomes that are possible, the single constant truth for the best possible global warming outcome is that the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use:
a. the more people we will survive to carry on our civilization, and
b. that future generations will suffer less from the ever-increasing sequence of global warming consequences (as described fully in what is called the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and countdown.)
12. Here are the links to the two videos by climate Prof. Kevin Anderson discussing the REAL fossil fuel reduction calculations needed. Click here for the first professor Anderson video. Click Here for the second professor Anderson video.
13. The above 2025 critical fossil fuel reduction targets are still significantly lower than they should be. The 2025 global fossil fuel reduction amounts described at the top of the page are the minimum essential starting reduction amounts. Based on numerous uncalculated factors and conditions described in 1-12 above, they should be significantly higher.
Based on the best current science from climate Professors like Kevin Anderson, the 2025 targets and deadlines above at least, are far closer to what we must do, and we have to start somewhere. These new working fossil fuel targets and timelines are based on both good science and climate justice and must now replace our current ridiculously impotent governmental and IPCC (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) global warming reduction targets and deadlines.
If we really wanted to be completely safe and if we took into consideration all of the other calculation mistakes and inclusion or exclusion factors that were not considered, we probably should be targeting an 80 to 85% fossil fuel reductions in all developed nations by 2025 (or earlier.) This would also require a modification to net-zero carbon in all developed nations by around 2032 or earlier. Higher fossil fuel reduction adjustments also would need to be made for the targets in developing nations that would be aligned with that which was re-targeted for developed nations.
14. Unfortunately, because of our lack of progress over the last 35 years, the ongoing global denial that global warming is real, and the many reasons described on this 2025 challenges page, it is highly probable that we will not be successful in achieving the 2025 targets. We will most likely pass the carbon 600 ppm final extinction level tipping point. (Please see this 2025 challenges page to understand why this failure to reach the 2025 targets is our most probable future.)
In every situation and in spite of all of the obstacles, the only way we save any part of a liveable future is to cut fossil fuel use to meet or get very close to the 2025 targets. These 2025 reductions will slow things down enough so that we have time to prepare, migrate, and adapt as well as possible.
No matter what, we must do whatever we can and make the best of a horrible escalating emergency that may already be out of our control for decades.
It's time to get started on the effective Job One for Humanity Plan to try to meet the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Start it today!
Now that you understand how bad things are, please help us get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction goals met by signing this global warming extinction emergency petition now. (It only takes a few minutes.)
Additional technical information to further prove to you that mass human extinction and economic, political and social chaos from the accelerating consequences of global warming will become reality within our lifetimes:
Why we have failed to fix global warming for 35 years. (How fossil producing nations and fossil fuel industry lobbyists have "cooked the books" making us believe we were safe when we were not.)
Why carbon sucking NETs won't save us in time.
If you still don't believe that once we go over the climate cliff at carbon 425 ppm we are basically locked into continually increasing temperatures for as much as the next 30-50 years, click here.
For those who may still believe that we can miss the last chance 2025 targets and still be safe, our organization has described what will happen in far greater detail than above in what we call, the 6 phase Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown. Click here to read the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown document.)
Written by the research staff at Joboneforhumanity.org