Last updated 1.22.26. This page is the most important and most frequently updated page on our website. It features our latest and best analysis of current climate change science and its implications. 

 

Why our Climate Change Think Tank's Forecast and Analysis Matters

The short and long-term forecast below gives you a clear, up-to-date, and uncensored science-based forecast of the consequences of climate change—and the critical timeframes in which they’re likely to arrive. 

You won’t find this level of uncensored honesty about climate change from governments, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), or global media outlets. That’s because revealing the whole truth might reduce the $30 trillion a year income of the single most powerful political cartel on Earth (the global fossil fuel cartel), expose decades of cartel undue political influence, and political failure and incompetence, reduce IPCC and UN funding, and cause widespread public panic in the global areas that will be most affected.

Here’s what makes this climate change forecast different:

✅ It is uncensored by any government agency, media gatekeeper, or any party with a financial conflict of interest involving the global fossil fuel cartel and it's related industries.
✅ Its analysis is based on peer-reviewed climate change science.

✅ It includes calculations for critical climate change factors that other think tanks are either unaware of or ignore.
✅ It is written for individuals, families, and businesses—not billionaires and politicians.

✅ It is created using one of the newest and most powerful analysis methodologies called DMAP (Dialectical Metasystemic Analysis and Problem-solving).

This page isn’t about fear. It’s about facts, so you can know how and when to be prepared for what is coming. Understanding the uncensored facts about climate change empowers you to protect what matters most: yourself, your family, your business, and your nation. If you know what's coming and you're prepared, there's always hope.

 

📖 Introduction: A Wake-Up Call

Most people think climate change is a slow-moving problem—something to worry about by 2100. The truth? It’s accelerating far, far faster than you’ve been told.

We’re in a period over the next 6 - 25 years or more where:

• • 🌡️ Extreme weather will hit far harder, break more 100-year and 1,000-year records more often, and cover larger and larger areas!

  • 🌾 Global food systems face massive disruption and losses.

  • 🚨 Billions of lives could be at risk by 2050 or sooner.

This page presents uncensored facts about the climate crisis. Each one is paired with positive practical actions you can take to prepare and adapt.

Before diving in, here are three things to keep in mind:

1. If you’re unsure about how climate change works, start here for a simple explanation of how climate change works.
2. When it feels overwhelming, balance each hard fact with the hopeful actions we also share on the page.
3. Know it is not your fault, and our climate change crisis didn’t happen overnight. You will soon learn that our climate change crisis is the result of more than six decades of government inaction and fossil fuel cartel disinformation, deception, and dirty tricks.

Here are the Seven Most Important Climate Change Facts on this Page

Readers' Note for Our Current Climate Change Consequences Forecast

Some information on this page may be challenging to read — and that’s completely understandable. While this can feel disheartening at first, it’s essential to remember that realistic, practical hope still exists—and it grows stronger the clearer we become about what lies ahead. Hope grounded in reality, sound science, preparation, practicality, and community truly protects lives.

Those who understand our uncensored climate change forecast and take wise steps:

• • stay safer and more secure,

  • live with greater comfort and confidence, and

  • continue to thrive far longer than those who deny the facts or delay action.

  • begin preparing for and adapting to the current and accelerating consequences of climate change, which will significantly impact their lives and businesses.

Because when we face the whole picture together, we gain something powerful: the clarity, courage, and cooperation needed to build a better future—no matter how great the challenge.

 

Here are Our Seven Most Current and Long-TermClimate Change Facts, Conditions, Consequences, Timeframes, and Solutions

The following provides an honest and accurate forecast of climate change consequences, along with the probable time frames in which these consequences are expected to occur. Honest solutions for climate change are also covered. This page always contains our most up-to-date forecasts and timetables for climate change consequences. 

Here are the seven most critical and up-to-date facts concerning our current climate change condition. The first one may be the most important because it has caused the climate crisis and will continue to cause our crisis until the general population understands this basic context of why we are in such a mess:

1. You are not to blame for the current global climate crisis. This crisis was created by the global fossil fuel cartels' 60 + years of disinformation and misinformation campaigns, and their undermining and immoral financial influence over your politicians, keeping those politicians from doing their jobs to protect you.

For over 60 years, your governments and the popular media have systematically deceived you about how quickly and badly the climate change crisis is going to get. The severity and timelines of climate change consequences have been underestimated by as much as 30-60%. Worse yet, the climate change solutions being presented to the public by governments and the media are also underestimated by approximately 30 to 60%, so that fossil fuel companies and fossil fuel-dependent industries do not have to change and can keep profiting.

Unfortunately, even most environmental and climate change educational groups have also been systematically deceived by grossly underestimated climate change data released by the fossil fuel cartel-influenced United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (The IPCC is, unfortunately, still considered the world's leading authority on climate change.)

The simplest explanation for this ongoing, systematic deception and gross underestimation of critical climate change information by the IPCC and many world governments is to allow the global fossil fuel cartel to continue to maintain its 30 trillion dollars a year income and maintain public ignorance about the severe dangers of accelerating climate change that the public now faces.

 

 

Understanding the global fossil fuels cartels' decades long role creating the historical context for the gross underestimation of public climate change forecasts by the IPCC, our governments, and the media is critical! First, this correct historical context of data corruption helps prove that you are not responsible for the current climate crisis. Secondly, prior or existing context typically constrains the upper and lower boundaries of any action permitted, possible, or underway within that controlled context.

After you read this article and the misinformation and disinformation link below on the tactics of the global fossil fuel cartel, you will clearly understand how a fact-corrupted climate change context engineered by the fossil fuel cartel has produced decades of seriously underestimated climate change forecasts.

Here is the link to the "contextual" influences and pressures continuing to corrupt the final IPCC climate change summary reports by the invisible influence, misinformation, and disinformation of the global fossil fuel cartel. It has also been this $30 trillion a year financial interest of the global fossil fuel cartel that has caused and currently drives the politicization of climate science.

We do not expect you to accept our claims of gross underestimation in the IPCC forecasts and of fossil fuel corruption without a plethora of verification. In this critical link, for when you finish this document, you will discover for yourself the nine major ways we have all been systematically deceived by the IPCC's "errors" regarding the real climate change consequences, timelines, and solutions. It will provide a preponderance of additional linked evidence that the powerful global fossil fuel cartel might actually lie or do other illegal or immoral things to preserve their $30 trillion annual income fossil fuel monopoly. The good news is that you don't have to read everything about these nine major IPCC climate change calculation "errors," which, individually and cumulatively, suggest that the IPCC's climate consequence severity and timeline summary forecasts are underestimated by about 30 to 60%.

For now, all we ask you to accept the possibility that the world's richest cartel may be trying to protect its massive global profits and deceive you concerning the fossil fuel-related consequences, causes, dangers, and the real solutions for climate change. You can return to the explanation of these nine major errors later.)

 

2. Enabled by the 30 trillion dollar-a-year global fossil fuel cartel's 60 years of disinformation and lobbying campaigns, our past and current government's Plan A has completely and utterly failed to reduce accelerating global warming and climate change. Worse yet, climate change is now accelerating!

PLAN A to reduce global fossil fuel use and reduce climate change is an utter and complete failure, as illustrated in the graph below. Due to this long-term failure by governments to act effectively, when we could still have avoided most of the worst consequences of climate change, humanity is now facing catastrophic climate outcomes, and we must move to Plan B. The graph below clearly shows that the three major greenhouse gases contributing to climate change are significantly out of control and have been for decades. Newer graphs, covering 2022 to 2026, show the same steady upward trend. The truly alarming news is that climate change is worsening at an even more rapid rate than it has over the past few decades.

 

(The billions of dollars spent on the global fossil fuel cartel's global disinformation, lobbying, and other immoral actions are explained fully in this link.)

 

3. Our government's mismanagement of the climate change emergency has cost humanity six irreplaceable decades that we could have used to gradually slow and reverse climate change. This decades-long failure by the government has severe consequences. We are now compelled to drastically reduce global fossil fuel usage immediately!

From now until approximately 2031, humanity will experience a dramatic increase in the severity, frequency, and magnitude (size) of climate change consequences, like never before. This dramatic increase in climate change consequences is due to crossing more climate change tipping points, more triggered feedback loops, and the cumulative and synergetic global warming effects of pumping 2.3 trillion tons of toxic fossil fuel pollution into the atmosphere from the greenhouse gases of carbon (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (NO2) since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. (Methane concentrations have more than doubled, and nitrous oxide concentrations have risen by approximately 20% since the Industrial Revolution.)

We will all now suffer the unavoidable consequences of 60 years of shameless failure by our fossil-fuel-compromised governments to manage climate change, and of the cumulative and synergistic effects of 150 years of toxic pollution of our atmosphere by 2.3 trillion tons of greenhouse gases. (See graph above.) Additionally, we predict that from 2026 to 2031, governments and complicit media will double down and significantly increase their efforts to hide or distort accurate climate change information.

 

4. Most people have no idea that the pace that climate change consequences will occur is also changing dramatically! From now until 2031, the severity, frequency, and scale of these climate change consequences will increase dramatically and far beyond what you have experienced over the past decades. (This is occurring for the same reasons as described above in #3.)

Because most people and businesses are unaware that the severity, frequency, and scale of climate change consequences will increase dramatically from now through 2031 (and continue to increase exponentially thereafter), they are unknowingly putting themselves at extremely high risk. They are not beginning their financial and personal survival-critical emergency preparations, adaptations, resilience-building, and, where applicable, migration or Managed Retreat. (Managed retreat is what politicians call climate change-driven migration when they want to sanitize and minimize its public media connection to climate change. 

New forecasts predict we could reach an average global temperature 2 °C above pre-industrial levels as early as the early to mid-2030s, or sooner. Sometime after 2031, the severity, frequency, and size of climate change consequences will go from increasing dramatically to increasing exponentially! This will occur after approximately 2031, as rising temperatures and their repercussions will trigger additional tipping points and feedback loops within the climate system and its subsystems. There are literally hundreds of major and minor tipping points and feedback loops within the climate and its subsystems.

Once again, this is far from what you're hearing in the fossil fuel cartel-controlled media and our governments, which continually repeat the climate change wild delusion and BIG LIE that humanity will not reach a 2°C increase until about 2100. (The media and governments will soon have to abandon this Big Lie for a new one, as you will discover below.)

Most people also do not understand that a 2°C increase in average global temperature is, in itself, extremely detrimental. At about a 2°C increase, an estimated 2 billion people will die worldwide from starvation caused by the collapse of the world's reef system, and low-yielding and failed crops because of the many primary and secondary consequences of climate change. (The illustration below uses the grossly incorrect 2 °C by 2100 UN IPCC information, but the 2 °C consequences remain valid.)

 

 

(Please note, with current forcing, 2 °C is most consistent with about the 2040s, but by using James Hansen's more accurate climate sensitivity (ECS), our analyses forecast it could arrive significantly earlier than the UN's IPCC AR6’s mid-century baseline if aerosol cooling continues to wane.” We estimate the world will cross an average global temperature increase of 2°C above pre-industrial levels sometime in the 2030s and possibly even earlier, if certain climate change tipping points are crossed.)

Worse yet, once we reach 2°C, it is all but impossible to prevent a 3°C, then a 4°C, and even a 5°C average global temperature increase from eventually occurring due to the momentum of climate change and the crossing of additional tipping points, and our proven human inertia in addressing and fixing the climate change emergency. Here are a few more things that should wake the world up to the reason we cannot cross this tipping point, but it is all but impossible not to because of the reasons on this page.

At a 2% increase in average global temperature, we will also experience:

1. The Amazon and African Congo rainforests will no longer be carbon sinks drawing toxic and polluting carbon out of our atmosphere.

2. An absence of summer sea ice - an enormous global feedback and added acceleration of Arctic warming, driving faster permafrost thaw.

3. A huge reduction of land and ocean carbon absorption from the atmosphere (land -25%, Ocean -7% over past ten years (from the Global Carbon Project)

4. All large sources of amplifying feedbacks are or will soon become strongly operant and most tipping points have passed/being passed (many of our coastal corals are gone already or soon will be.) When the corals are gone the fish spawning areas disappear and the fish supply in the ocean drops drastically.

5. An end-of-the-world deeper point of no return often called the Hot House Earth runaway!

Please note that although the severity, frequency, and size of climate change consequences will increase dramatically and eventually reach an exponential level on their own, there may be a period (or periods) of very abrupt, interspersed relative calm, followed by very large climate change consequences. Click here to learn more about what these major abrupt time change consequences are, why they will occur, and what will happen to the stability of civilization if they occur.

Click here to view a comprehensive list of the primary and secondary climate change consequences we will all face at 2 degrees Celsius.

 

5. Between the atmospheric carbon level of 425 parts per million (ppm) and 450 ppm, humanity will enter into the very dangerous civilization threatening second phase of irreversible global warming that will take from centuries to thousands of years for our atmosphere to recover from.

As of February 2025, we had reached an alarming level of 427 ppm of carbon dioxide. Think of irreversible global warming as a train rolling down a winding mountain with no brakes. It just keeps accelerating as it winds down the mountain. 

James Hansen, a world-renowned climate change scientist, states that once we reach a carbon level of 450 ppm, which is just 6 to years or less away, an eventual average global temperature increase of 4°C is guaranteed and "baked in," and at 4°C, life on Earth will become a living hell. At our current rate of increasing greenhouse gas emissions, we will reach 450 PPM of carbon in as little as 4 to 6 years from 2026.

It is worth noting that James Hansen, a renowned climate scientist, also stated in an earlier climate study that, in 2015, when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached 386 ppm, humanity entered the first phase of irreversible global warming. He also stated that, for humanity to maintain a safe and stable climate similar to that of the last 10,000 years, it must keep carbon below 350 ppm. (If you are curious to know more about the third and final phase of irreversible global warming, click here. We also strongly recommend you take the time to read the full and critical definition of irreversible global warming here because you will hear about it repeatedly on our website.)

 

6. The worst climate change consequences of the fossil fuel cartel's six decades of delaying disinformation and influence campaigns is the crossing of more climate tipping points, feedback loops, and the cumulative effects of pumping 2.3 trillion tons of toxic and polluting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This willcause humanity to experience a likely massive die-off, with as much as half of humanity potentially dying by about 2050. 

After 2050, unprepared survivors will face near-unbearable hardships until the climate is restored to its previous balance, which had supported humanity's flourishing for 10,000 years. (For those of you who do not understand how this possible massive die-off is even possible, here is a long detailed article that will fully explain the dozens of primary and secondary layered and interconnected climate change consequences cumulatively and synergetic interacting with multiplying and amplifying humanity's 12 greatest current global crises and the Climageddon Feedbck Loop that will make this large-scale human die-off likely by 2050 or not long afterward.

If you still have any doubts about the reasonableness, rationality, or likelihood of the forecast that approximately half of humanity will die by 2050, please also read this detailed analysis of our 12 other global crises interacting with the primary and secondary consequences of climate change. You may not be able to sleep at night for a while, but you will understand that this forecast is well-founded in the synergistic and cumulative events likely to occur during the mass extinction.

Please note that the illustration in number four, above, showing 2 billion lives at risk, is conservative. When all IPCC underestimation errors and other calculation issues on this page are corrected and accounted for, the death totals will likely be much higher, in part because average Global temperatures will also be significantly higher than projected, as illustrated below. Please note that newer forecasts, based on Hansen's new climate-sensitivity ECS research, indicate that humanity could reach a temperature increase of nearly 2°C as early as 2040.

 

7. Our government's climate change PLAN A has failed over the last 60 years. Worse yet, we are now losing the climate change battle even faster than in the previous 60 years. It is time for Plan B.

Many of the most catastrophic consequences of global warming and climate change are no longer avoidable and are arriving faster than most people are prepared for. It is hard to admit or face, but humanity is already in the second phase of irreversible global warming, and we have already lost A MAJOR battle against climate change, but not the war. It is now highly uncertain that we will be able to stabilize the climate for many decades to centuries and secure a safe, stable future for current and future generations. Losing this critical battle against climate change does not mean giving up; it means redoubling our efforts to combat it. There are many steps we still need to take to adapt and minimize costs.

Current credible die-off forecasts are that 2 billion people will die when the average global temperature rises to 2°C above preindustrial levels. In many areas, we are already approximately 1.6 to 1.7 °C above pre-industrial levels. We are likely to reach 2°C sometime between 2035 and 2040, or possibly sooner. That doesn't leave much time for you, your family, and your business to plan for emergency preparedness, adaptations, resilience-building, and potentially even migration.

Accurate climate change forecasts always require the following to be calculated into the forecasts:

a. all climate change factors like tipping points and feedback loops,

b. compensation for past climate sensitivity errors and the seven other major errors (described here), and 

c. the cumulative and synergetic effects of all the 2.3 trillion tons of toxic greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

Including all climate change factors in the forecasts indicates that our average global temperature will rise rapidly to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Unfortunately, this will occur sometime between 2035 and 2045, not 2100, as your governments, the media, and the United Nations are saying to keep you calm and ignorant of the real risks. After we reach 2°C, average global temperatures are expected to rise rapidly over the coming decades to 3°C, 4°C, and likely higher. (In the members' area of our website, we cover more specific climate change temperature changes and their time frames to help plan the future.)

Accordingly, it is now imperative that both individuals and businesses immediately begin their PLAN B climate change-related emergency preparations, adaptations, and climate change resilience-building, (or in some cases, start migrating, relocating, and executing what is being called by politicians a "Managed Retreat.") This way, regular citizens and businesses will have nearly the same chance to survive what is coming as the privileged ultra-wealthy billionaires, top executives of the multinational mega-corporations, and the political elite.

Here's what will likely happen if you do not begin your PLAN B climate-related emergency preparations, adaptations, and resilience-building soon. If you live between the 40th parallel North and the 40th parallel South, particularly in the areas between the 35th parallel North and the 35th parallel South, you are in medium to high-risk climate change areas, except for a few microclimates. This means that if you are not prepared for what lies ahead, you will experience financial losses from flooding, fires, extreme heat and humidity, and other primary and secondary consequences of climate change. Your insurance companies will likely increase your rates or cancel your policy, and the value of your homes, businesses, and other property in those medium- to high-risk areas will continue to decline as more people realize conditions will only worsen as climate change accelerates.

In the US, if you live in Florida, on the northeast coast, the Gulf Coast, or the southwest, you are in mostly high-to medium-risk areas, with Florida being the worst. If you live in Southern Europe, you are in a high-risk zone, except in areas at higher elevations and with abundant freshwater. Much of China and Southeast Asia is also a high-risk zone. Australia is one of the highest-risk areas globally. Most regions of Central and South America, as well as Africa, are high-risk, except for higher elevations and specific regional microclimates.

The most fundamental, accurate message for the world today about our current inability to "fix" climate change and secure our climate change future is:

1. For 60 years, our governments have failed to act to manage accelerating climate change effectively. Because of that delay and ineffectiveness, we now face unavoidable and accelerating climate change consequences that have reached a level where it may already be too late to save as much as half of humanity from dying by about 2050 from the disastrous combined effects of the primary and secondary climate change consequences, synergetically and cumulatively interacting with humanity's 12 other major global crises in the Climageddon Feedback Loop process.

(Yes, this is a very scary statement. But how this mass human die off could occur from the combined synergetic and accumulative effects of the primary and secondary climate change consequences, synergetically and cumulatively interacting with humanity's 12 other major global crises in a Climageddon Feedback Loop process is described in great and painful detail on this very long page.) 

2. Immediate and aggressive government action is now mandatory as a part of the needed PLAN B adjustments to reach the radical global fossil fuel reduction targets to save as much of humanity as possible surviving after 2050.

 

 

The biggest remaining question is: how much more motivation do our politicians need before they meet the required global fossil fuel reduction targets today to protect the tomorrows of the future?

Once you can pass through the natural disbelief and denial about what you read, and you better understand the coming future climate change conditions, you will realize that the future that you had planned for yourself or your small business has been stolen from you by the never-ending greed of the global fossil fuel cartel and their corruption of our governments and politicians. We are genuinely sorry for how this uncensored climate change reality check will make you feel. We apologize; we understand how painful and distressing it was for our team of climate change analysts and researchers to acknowledge the facts and the nonpartisan math and physics of climate change.

Please do not deny our painful new climate change reality any longer. This is what is now needed for you and everyone's PLAN B.

Please start the following PLAN B actions simultaneously:

1. Get busy with your emergency preparations, adaptations, resilience building, and if necessary, migration before it is too late! If you wait too long, you will not be able to find what you need, or it will be far more expensive.

2. Get your politicians to reach the mandatory and honest required global fossil fuel reduction targets.

3. Vote politicians supporting policies that deny the reality of the accelerating climate change emergency out of office as fast as possible. They are on the wrong side of history. Because of their climate change emergency denial policies, they will make the unconscionable pain of accelerating climate change consequences cost far more, hurt far more, and last far longer.

4. Push environmental and climate organizations to advocate for the establishment of global governance to safeguard humanity. Without a new global entity with the authority to make and enforce transnational laws, the accelerating global warming emergency, as evidenced by 60 years of government failure, is beyond the ability of any individual or nation to negotiate or resolve.

Individual nations will continue to do precisely as they are doing now. They will lie, cheat, and delay the reductions in fossil fuel emissions required. They will do everything possible to maintain their competitive advantage. Only the creation of some form of a new global governance entity will ultimately solve the climate change emergency.

5. Don't be fooled by all the ridiculous media-hyped carbon capture will save us nonsense. You will repeatedly hear that "carbon capture will save us at the last minute. This nonsense is more cleverly disguised fossil fuel cartel disinformation designed to keep you and the world from cutting back on fossil fuel use, mixed in with Silicon Valley's new toy investment greed. (Click here to read about this clever carbon capture false hope and popular media deception.) 

6. Never forget that it is not just accelerating climate change that humanity is facing. Currently, there are 12 other global crises, many of which are also worsening. Many of these 12 global crises are also interacting with climate change, amplifying their worst effects.

7. Never forget that escalating climate change is the central and major controlling factor, fueling, amplifying, and multiplying most of the worst consequences of the other 12 global crises of the global polycrisis now facing humanity. We do not know which of the 12 global crises might occur before climate change consequences lead to widespread global collapse. Fortunately, the same advice we provide on this website for preparing for and adapting to climate change also applies to the other 12 global crises.

8. As part of your emergency preparations, adaptation, resilience, billing, and possible migration Plan B, it is also important at some point to build a community around you that will have your back. We helped to cofound a special organization called ClimateSafe Villages to help you do this. Click here to learn more about our partner nonprofit, ClimateSafe Villages, which provides individualized support.

9. Do not overlook the fact that Climate change is the central amplifier and multiplying disruptor of our broader “polycrisis.

 

Getting real about the future of climate change, humanity, and a special "natural secret" part of PLAN B

It is highly improbable that our government will act in time to prevent mass human extinction, massive financial loss, and suffering. Therefore, to maintain one's emotional balance and sanity, it is essential to see how humanity will escape this crisis, given the government's ongoing failure to act. 

While it is theoretically possible for accelerating climate change consequences to reduce the human population to 15% to 5% of the current population if our governments continue for another 10+ years without making the required radical fossil fuel reductions, this 15% to 5% reduction outcome is highly improbable for two reasons. Those two reasons are:

 

1. Accelerating climate change will not destroy ALL of humanity. This is because Mother Nature (not geoengineering) will eventually come to humanity’s rescue. Due to the many accelerating and direct consequences of climate change, Mother Nature will herself radically reduce the human population. Her actions will reduce the human population by about 50%, and that reduction of humanity will also reduce global fossil fuel use by almost the same percentage. This radical Mother Nature-powered climate change consequence-enforced drop in global fossil fuel use will be just enough to save much of humanity, hopefully as much as 50%.

2. There's also a high probability that by 2035-40, when climate change's consequences have risen exponentially and are causing unconscionable global chaos, havoc, and loss, our governments and politicians will finally act to make the required radical fossil fuel cuts. While it will still be too late to save about half of humanity, this will contribute to the global reduction of fossil fuels needed to help save as much of the remaining and surviving human population as possible. 

Deny climate change and many will eventually lose most of their assets and likely suffer or die. Get prepared for what is now unavoidable and you and yours will most certainly survive better and longer.

It's your choice big choice. You can deny uncensored climate change reality and suffer the painful consequences or protect yourself, family, business, and nation.

And there is an even bigger question. If individuals, businesses, and governments do not begin active emergency preparation, adaptation, resilience-building, and where appropriate migration, human civilization itself could descend into eventual chaos and retrogression. (To see the 30+ reasons why it is highly improbable our governments will act in time to prevent the loss of half of humanity, click here.)

 

Finally, Some Better Climate Change Overview News

We must now take urgent action to save humanity and civilization before the world enters a climate-change-driven, amplified period of widespread global instability that will impact our food systems and other essential ecological and human support systems. The global collapse of these systems will destabilize our economic, political, and social systems.

It is essential to remember that human and natural systems have repeatedly collapsed over human and natural history, and something has always survived. Evolutionary history and evolutionary theory also indicate that new forms of rebirth regularly follow periods of major collapse. Collapse and rebirth are standard recurring parts of Earth's and humanity's evolutionary existence, particularly when some part of that existence refuses to "listen" to the increasingly louder feedback that collapse is coming. (Click here for more about humanity's spellbinding evolutionary collapse and rebirth history.) 

Here is more positive news to help counterbalance the vast challenges we face:

a. There is always a realistic hope for any individuals, families, or businesses who understand what is coming and prepare for it. Their lives can last longer, be safer, and far more comfortable.

b. Thousands of lawsuits are now forcing the global fossil fuel cartel to pay for the damages their toxic and polluting products are causing worldwide to our lives, health, homes, finances, businesses, farms, and nations. These lawsuits are occurring at the national, state, regional, and local levels and will reduce fossil-fuel carbon emissions by removing the profit incentive. (Click here for more about the rising wave of climate change restitution litigation and how you can join it.)

c. Accurate climate change-related information (like this article) will make surviving easier and more certain. Understanding the most likely time frames of accelerating climate change and its impact on the widespread global collapse of food production and other critical ecological and human support systems, as well as the consequences for business, production, and the human population, is crucial to survival.

This knowledge of the timeframe will be essential for accurate long-term planning, maintaining the right level of urgency for preparation and adaptation, and staying emotionally balanced. To help you understand the critical global collapse triggers and timeframes, we have authored three additional articles that summarize the best previous academic and independent research on the projected approach to widespread global collapse and its processes.

Especially if you have remaining doubts about the correct science-grounded consequence scenarios or time frames listed above for the horrible climate change consequences, read our three compelling summaries and global collapse research verification articles.)

Click here to read the first of the three absolute must-read timetable validation articles after finishing this article. These three articles are based on numerous peer-reviewed studies that provide a comprehensive understanding of the critical timeframes driving humanity's other major global crises toward widespread global system collapse and contributing to the climate change emergency. 

 

d. Maintaining a positive and balanced perspective will be essential to survive. Another big-picture way to see humanity's next big evolutionary climate challenge is, "There is no truly bad weather. There is only selecting the wrong bad-weather gear for the particular kind of bad weather you face." In other words, life and evolution are constantly changing, and we must adapt to major, life-threatening changes.

The above good news section implies that those wise individuals who listen to life's current climate change feedback, learn from it, and prepare for and adapt to it. They will have the best opportunity to survive and apply what they have learned about the causes of this climate nightmare and system collapse to prevent it from recurring.

The links below will help you select the optimal gear for severe weather conditions.

 

 

Healing and Other Helpful Quick Overview Preparation Links

We understand the above is a shocking drop into the deep end, because it shocked us, too. We do not want to leave you stunned and upset, so we will share with you how we recovered from so much bad climate change news, anger, and anxiety. Click here to learn how we addressed and mitigated shock, anger, sadness, anxiety, and other emotions related to the climate change emergency.

While there is a lot of difficult news about our current climate situation, please do not think that we have given up hope on this challenging task, or that there are no significant benefits we will receive from addressing climate change. When you're done reading this page, be sure to return to the following link first, then read the link that follows, which will help you maintain realistic hope and the balance we all need to get through this challenge together. The second article has been read by several million people.

Yes, it is hard to admit or face, but humanity is already in the second phase of irreversible global warming, and we have already lost a major battle against climate change! It is now highly uncertain that we will be able to stabilize the climate for many decades, centuries, or millennia and secure a safe, stable future for current and future generations. Losing this battle against climate change does not mean giving up or that we have lost the war. There are many things we still need to do to adapt and save as much as possible.

One of the first things we will need to do is to admit that we are in a growing climate change consequence predicament. Please see this article if you do not believe we are in a predicament. It precisely explains the predicament and what we need to do about it in a very warm and human way. The article is called, Our Environmental Predicament: Culture vs. Nature.

If you have learned enough and want to start preparing for the climate change emergency, building resilience, or taking migration and other necessary actions, see below.

Click here to view our most accurate, up-to-date timetable for the worst climate change consequences.

Click here to access the emergency preparation information you need.

Click here for the information you need on building adaptive climate change resilience.

Click here for the necessary migration information. (Our extensive migration and other emergency essential information is found in our Members' section. It is easy to become a member.)

Click here to access our very detailed local and regional climate change consequence predictions for 2026. 

If you want to stay informed as our climate change conditions worsen in different areas worldwide, sign up for your free Climate Change Danger Alerts and Updates Here! They are illustrated and usually 1-2 paragraphs long.

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On this website, we use long-term climate forecasts and predictions grounded in Dr. James Hansen's climate sensitivity (ECS) research, as informed by his most recent studies, to guide our analysis and calculations. If you’re curious about what climate sensitivity (ECS) means—and why it’s one of the most critical constants in all climate modeling—please visit this new page, which explains both its importance and the current scientific debate surrounding it.

This page more fully explains why we continue to hold on to this reality-based hope despite the many challenges and setbacks humanity faces with climate change.)

And if you’d like to explore the scientific basis behind our forecasts—including why our estimates are often 30–60 percent more severe than what you may hear from governments, the media, or even the U.N. IPCC—please click here for the science, validating the accuracy of our forecast.

 

 

  

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Bibliography

The following bibliography, both directly and indirectly, supports the analysis presented for the specific areas discussed on the page.

 

 

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1. Climate Sensitivity (ECS), Forcing, and Long-Term Warming

Charney, J., et al. (1979). Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment. National Academy of Sciences. Wikipedia

Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., et al. (2008). Target atmospheric CO₂: Where should humanity aim? The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2, 217–231. arXiv

Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., et al. (2023). Global warming in the pipeline. Oxford Open Climate Change, 3(1), kgad008. (Argues for an effective ECS ~4.8 °C and much stronger committed warming.) OUP Academic+1

Sherwood, S. C., Webb, M. J., Annan, J. D., et al. (2020). An assessment of Earth’s climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. Reviews of Geophysics, 58(4), e2019RG000678. (Constrains ECS to ~2.6–3.9 °C, with 2–4.5 °C very likely.) AGU Publications+1

He, H., Kramer, R. J., Soden, B. J., & Jeevanjee, N. (2022). State-dependence of CO₂ forcing and its implications for climate sensitivity. Geophysical Research Letters. (Shows forcing increases with background state, tending to push effective ECS higher.) arXiv

IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Cambridge University Press. (Ch. 1, 4, 7: ECS assessed likely 2.5–4 °C; warming since 1970 is faster than any 50-year period in 2,000 years.) ipcc.ch+1

 

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2. Irreversibility and “Locked-In” Warming

Solomon, S., Plattner, G. K., Knutti, R., & Friedlingstein, P. (2009). Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(6), 1704–1709. (Shows large components of warming, sea-level rise, and aridification are effectively irreversible on ~1,000-year timescales.) PNAS+1

Solomon, S., et al. (2010). Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(43), 18354–18359. (Extends irreversibility analysis to other GHGs.) PNAS

IPCC. (2021). AR6 WGI, Chapter 4: Future global climate: Scenario-based projections and near-term information. (Synthesizes evidence for abrupt and irreversible changes; cross-chapter assessment of tipping-like behaviour.) ipcc.ch+1

 

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3. Tipping Points and Non-Linear Responses

Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., et al. (2008). Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(6), 1786–1793. (Classic first synthesis of major tipping elements.) Wikipedia

Armstrong McKay, D. I., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., et al. (2022). Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science, 377(6611), eabn7950. (Identifies a cluster of tipping elements likely or possible already between ~1–2 °C.) PubMed+1

Ashwin, P., & von der Heydt, A. S. (2019). Extreme sensitivity and climate tipping points. Nonlinearity, 32(11), R1–R44. (Shows how tipping points can produce extreme, regime-dependent ECS values.) arXiv

IPCC. (2021). AR6 WGI, Chapter 4 & Box 4.3 on abrupt and irreversible changes and ice-sheet tipping behavior. ipcc.ch+1

 

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4. Emissions, Concentrations, and Remaining Carbon Budgets

Friedlingstein, P., et al. (2023). Global Carbon Budget 2023. Earth System Science Data, 15, 5301–5369. (Details cumulative emissions, current 417+ ppm CO₂ in 2022, and shrinking 1.5/2 °C carbon budgets.) ESSD

Global Carbon Project / Our World in Data. (2025). Cumulative CO₂ emissions including land-use change, 1850–2024. (Shows cumulative emissions now exceed ~2–2.5 trillion tonnes CO₂.) Our World in Data+2Our World in Data+2

IPCC. (2023). Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. (Provides updated remaining carbon budgets to limit warming to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, plus probability bounds.) ipcc.ch

WMO. (2024). State of the Global Climate 2023 and Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. (Documents record-high CO₂, CH₄, N₂O levels and continued rapid warming; 2023 ~1.45 °C above pre-industrial.) AP News+1

IPCC. (2018). Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR1.5). (Early synthesis of budgets and impacts for 1.5 vs 2 °C.) ESSD

 

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5. Underestimation, “Conservative Bias,” and Extremes Arriving Faster Than Expected

Brysse, K., Oreskes, N., O’Reilly, J., & Oppenheimer, M. (2013). Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? Global Environmental Change, 23, 327–337. (Documents systematic tendencies toward conservative, low-end projections in climate science and IPCC assessments.) ScienceDirect+1

Kornhuber, K., et al. (2024). Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121(xx), e2411258121. (Shows extreme heat is increasing significantly faster in observations than in state-of-the-art models in several regions.) PNAS+1

Rogers, C. D. W., et al. (2022). Sixfold increase in historical Northern Hemisphere concurrent summer heatwaves driven by warming. Journal of Climate. American Meteorological Society Journals+1

Rousi, E., et al. (2022). Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more persistent double-jet states. Nature Communications, 13, 3851. (Demonstrates very rapid growth in European heat extremes.) Nature

Otto, F. E. L. (2023). Attribution of extreme events to climate change. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 48, 1–27. (Reviews how attribution studies show strong links between extremes and anthropogenic warming.) Annual Reviews

World Weather Attribution (WWA). Ongoing attribution analyses of heatwaves, floods, and droughts worldwide; repeated finding that models often underestimate the observed increase in extreme heat, especially in Europe and the Mediterranean. worldweatherattribution.org+2worldweatherattribution.org+2

IPCC. (2021). AR6 WGI, Chapter 11 & Summary for Policymakers. (Concludes that heat extremes, heavy precipitation, and some droughts are already increasing in frequency and intensity; warming since 1970 is “widespread, rapid, and intensifying.”) World Meteorological Organization+3ipcc.ch+3ipcc.ch+3

 

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6. Impacts at 1.5–2 °C and Beyond: Food Systems, Habitability, and Mortality

IPCC. (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to AR6. Cambridge University Press. (Assesses rising risks to food security, health, and ecosystems for 1.5, 2, 3+ °C.) Stanford News

IPCC. (2018). Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR1.5). (Shows profound differences in crop yields, coral reefs, water stress, and extreme heat impacts between 1.5 and 2 °C.) ESSD+1

Xu, C., Kohler, T. A., Lenton, T. M., Svenning, J.-C., & Scheffer, M. (2020). Future of the human climate niche. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(21), 11350–11355. (Estimates that by 2070, ~1–3 billion people could be pushed outside the historical “human climate niche” under high warming, implying massive migration, starvation, and mortality risks.) The Academy for Systems Change+1

Lenton, T. M., Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., et al. (2019). Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against. Nature, 575, 592–595. (Argues that cascading tipping points substantially raise the risk of large-scale societal disruption.) PreventionWeb

Lenton, T. M., Xu, C., Abrams, J. F., et al. (2023). Quantifying the human cost of global warming. Nature Sustainability, 6, 129–138. (Links warming levels to projected additional heat-related deaths and population exposure to dangerous heat.) Wikipedia

 

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7. Planetary Boundaries, Polycrisis, and System-Level Risk

Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., et al. (2009). A safe operating space for humanity. Nature, 461, 472–475. (Introduces the planetary boundaries framework, placing climate change as one of several interacting global limits.) World Meteorological Organization

Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., et al. (2015). Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science, 347(6223), 1259855. (Updates boundaries and stresses interactions between climate, biosphere integrity, and other domains.) World Meteorological Organization

Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lenton, T. M., et al. (2023). Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries. Science Advances, 9(37), eadh2458. (Finds six of nine boundaries—including climate, biosphere integrity, land use, and biogeochemical flows—are already transgressed, supporting the “polycrisis” framing.) ICOS

 

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8. Global Collapse / Limits-to-Growth–Type Analyses (for Your MIT/Club of Rome References)

While not strictly “climate” studies, these are central to your references to MIT, Club of Rome, and collapse timeframes interacting with climate change:

Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens, W. W. (1972). The Limits to Growth. Universe Books. (World3 model showing overshoot and potential global collapse this century under business-as-usual.) Nature

Turner, G. M. (2014). Is global collapse imminent? MSSI Research Paper No. 4, University of Melbourne. (Shows historical data to ~2010 closely track the original “standard run” collapse scenario.) Science

KPMG International & Club of Rome. (2021). Limits to Growth: A review of 50 years of data. (Concludes that observed trends still broadly align with the original collapse-risk pathways.) Science

These provide the systems-dynamics backbone for your discussion of overlapping crises and the 2030–2050 collapse window.

 

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9. High-Level Syntheses Showing Warming is “Widespread, Rapid, and Intensifying”

IPCC. (2021). AR6 WGI – Summary for Policymakers and overall report. (States that human influence is “unequivocal,” and that warming since 1970 is unprecedented in at least 2,000 years.) ipcc.ch+2ipcc.ch+2

WMO. (2021–2024). State of the Global Climate annual series, and related UN reports. (Documents record temperatures, sea-level rise, glacier loss, and marine heatwaves, with 2023–2024 as the hottest years on record and brief excursions beyond 1.5 °C in annual averages.) AP News+1

 

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