Beyond the 28 reasons above, there are more critical factors to consider before deciding if climate change and global heating are already out of our control
We have already gone past or into too many tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops. Here are the most probable carbon feedback loops, carbon sink losses, points of no return, or tipping points to occur or be crossed since we crossed the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff in 2015
1. Decreased albedo from reduced snow cover and melting Arctic ice increasing the earth's average global temperature,
2. Increased sea ice and glacier melt resulting in additional sea-level rise,
3. Increased atmospheric water vapor increases resulting in more extreme weather and rainfall,
4. Increased permafrost and tundra heating, releasing more carbon and methane, resulting in more heat, disease epidemics, and possible pandemics. This tundra heating significantly speeds up the process of more positive feedback loops and crossing more points of no return and tipping points.
(Please note rapidly melting tundra permafrost also occurs because the world's northernmost areas are warming twice as fast as the rest of the world.) This permafrost melting can also cause local and global pandemics caused by ancient viruses and bacteria released from the permafrost. They have already had localized anthrax and smallpox outbreaks in Siberia because of the bacteria and viruses released from the decomposition of ancient frozen animals from the melting tundra. Unfortunately, the Siberian residents had no existing immunity to these diseases. They were not prepared to deal with these outbreaks due to a lack of available vaccines.
5. Decreased carbon capture from the world's forests as temperatures rise and forests go from taking carbon out of the atmosphere to carbon-neutral (no longer removing any carbon from the atmosphere.) Carbon neutral is the state that occurs just before overheated over-stressed forests next begin to release carbon back into the atmosphere!
(Click here to learn more about each item listed above.)
Here are the most likely keystone tipping points to be crossed since we crossed the carbon 386 climate cliff in 2015
Increased melting of summer and year-round arctic polar ice due to global warming is the extinction tipping point most likely to be the first candidate to accelerate the beginning of the end of humanity.
It will significantly affect worldwide weather stability and, more importantly, significantly lower global crop yields. It will also considerably increase global crop failures. Eventually, this will cause accelerating global mass starvation, which also will then destabilize national economics, politics, and society.
In the summer, when the Arctic ice melts, there is less cooling of all growing season areas affected anywhere by arctic weather. Therefore, the more polar ice melts each year, the less cooling and the more heat and drought during the critical growing season in all arctic weather-affected areas.
Food crops are more sensitive to heat when there are droughts, and they are more susceptible to heat, rain bombs, and cold spells when they are just beginning to grow. Unfortunately, because more ice is melting in the Arctic ocean almost every summer and staying melted longer during the year, we are losing ever more critical cooling for our vital food crops. As a result, we are also losing the stable crop yield or crop failure predictability of our growing seasons.
The five major food grains are the largest source of the world's food supply. They are corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, and sorghum.
All of these grains have upper and lower growing season temperature limits. Most of them cannot survive more than ten days during their growing season over 100° Fahrenheit. This heat limitation is particularly true if this heat comes early in their growing season or when their soils are drought dry.
Because of the continually increasing loss of the cooling effect on the growing regions below the Arctic (because of the constantly diminishing Arctic ice,) the number of dangerous growing season days with temperatures over 100° will continue increasing steadily as more and more Arctic ice melts and remains melted longer throughout the year. (We estimate within a decade or two, we could have as many as 30 or more days of 100-degree heat during the growing season in many critical crop-growing areas.)
Because melting Arctic ice also affects and disrupts the jet stream and ocean currents like the Gulf Stream, you also will have extreme and unseasonable cold spells appearing during the prime crop growing seasons worldwide. These cold spells will further reduce crop yields and produce more crop failures during the fragile growing season.
This climate-effected jet and Gulf stream issue again mean that the world will continue to experience more and larger crop reductions and failures as more polar ice melts and stays melted longer. Corn is one of the most significant food staples for humanity. Unfortunately, it is also one of the most sensitive crops to increasing 100 degrees plus temperatures and drought.
The following is from Wikipedia:
"Since 1979, the minimum annual area of sea ice in the Arctic has dropped by about 40%, as measured each September. From sea ice models and recent satellite images, we can expect that an Arctic sea ice-free summer will come before 2020. Models that best match historical trends project a nearly ice-free Arctic in the summer by the 2030s. However, these models tend to underestimate the rate of sea ice loss since 2007." (If you would like to see a video of how more polar ice is melting each summer as the years go by, click here for this NASA video.)
The increasing melting of arctic polar ice is a glaring warning sign of increasing global warming and severe reductions in future crop yields and dangerous increases in future crop failures. Unfortunately, these crop failures will also mean higher prices and ever-increasing food scarcity, and increasing global starvation.
This Arctic-influenced crop stability problem is not something far-off in the future. On the contrary, it is already happening in many areas worldwide.
It is already causing large human migrations. The expanding and increasing polar ice melt is a primary "canary in the coal mine" for increasing future mass starvation. This starvation will not be way off about 2100 as we have been told, but it is happening now, and it will accelerate in years the decade to follow.
In the growing belt of the United States, we are already seeing more record-breaking heat, droughts, rain bombs, Derechos, and other extreme unseasonal weather that directly affects crop yields and crop failures. This increasing crop yield reduction and crop failure pattern will continue as long as more polar ice disappears and the Arctic remains relatively ice-free longer in summers. As the process of massive crop reductions and crop failures expands and continues, mass starvation will begin to destabilize our weakest economic, social, and political systems first.
Reduced polar ice also reduces the albedo effect. White snow or ice reflects heat away from the earth and into the atmosphere, keeping the world cooler. However, as more Arctic polar ice is melted, the darker polar oceans absorb the heat. They then heat up more, which once again causes more global warming.
As global temperatures continue rising, the time frames in which we will be crossing more of the tipping points listed above will get shorter. But that will not be the only significant effect of the melting Arctic ice due to global warming. Paradoxically, according to new studies, we will also have more extreme cold and heavier snows during the US winters because of the accelerating melting of Arctic ice.
You can count on increasing crop yield reductions and crop failures because of arctic ice melt, increased heat, increased droughts, increased cold spells, increased rain bombs, and extreme weather storms. These weather extremes will make it more and more impossible for modern agriculture and the major food crops to survive throughout their current growing seasons. There are estimates that crop yield reductions and crop failures will average 5 to 10% or more for each degree Fahrenheit that the average global temperature rises. These increasing crop problems will continue until the planet becomes so warm that too many days of the growing season will be at 100° or more. This heat condition will make successfully growing the world's five major grains impossible.
The carbon 386 ppm climate cliff and its 1.5 C temperature increase threshold was the last threshold for excluding the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. Many climate researchers also believe that staying below 1.5 C was also the final threshold where we could have prevented a significant acceleration in crossing other more dangerous climate change tipping points and feedback loops.
One can see from the preceding that while we all do our best to demand our governments come close to the 2025 targets, it is also wise to start a runaway global heating emergency backup "Plan B!"
Reviewing the most misunderstood climate and runaway global heating danger because it means survival or extinction
What does not coming close to the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets mean, and what is at stake:
1. If we fail, we will not be able to slow down the unavoidable extinction of half or more of humanity by mid-century. (This level of unavoidable mass extinction is most associated with having already crossed the carbon 386 ppm threshold and climate cliff.)
2. Only by coming very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets will we have any reasonable chance of preventing an even worse, near-total, or total human extinction event beginning as soon as 2070.
3. Because near-total extinction is now strongly associated with crossing the atmospheric carbon threshold of carbon 425 - 450 ppm and the eventual higher temperatures it commits us to when that threshold is crossed, at best, (and if we are very lucky), we have only about three to about nine more years to prevent our near-total extinction. (Carbon is currently accumulating in the atmosphere at about an additional three carbon ppm every year. Click here to read more about why this 3-9 year deadline is our survival!)
4. Unfortunately, we also have two additional near-total extinction-accelerating tipping points after reaching the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point threshold.
We now face the unimaginable dilemma of mass human extinction vs. near-total extinction
In many places on our website, the global warming science indicates that we are already facing an unavoidable global heating-caused extinction event for about half of humanity by about mid-century. (If, by chance, you still do not believe this, click the previous link. After you read that link, then please also read about the global warming-caused tipping points at this link. This second link will make our step-by-step unavoidable mass extinction process painfully clear!)
This mass extinction event will occur because we have ignored 6 decades of scientific warnings. We foolishly squandered our best chance to fix global warming decades ago. Decades ago, we could have made the gradual, less painful global fossil fuel reductions needed to keep global heating from reaching our current emergency level.
Now our first-level extinction event will cause the deaths of half of humanity by mid-century. Such a massive die-off would be due to:
1. crossing critical global warming tipping points,
2. activating significant amplifying climate feedback loops, and
3. the combined future consequences of climate change, particularly mass starvation due to global crop failures of the most climate-sensitive crops.
The coming mass extinction event is also unavoidable because we will be unable to stop ourselves from crossing the three most dangerous global warming tipping points. We will be unable to stop ourselves because we will not get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets!
Worth repeating is that the already unavoidable extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century is not the worst global warming future consequence we face. If we do not come reasonably close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, we will also face the beginning stages of near-total extinction.
A near-total extinction to total extinction event could begin as early as 50-70 years in the form of very high temperature and very high atmospheric carbon and methane levels. Those high carbon and methane levels support initiating the final stages of the runaway-global heating process, aka the runaway greenhouse effect. (Runaway global warming is also referred to as runaway greenhouse effect or extinction-level global warming. The final stage of runaway global warming describes the circumstances in which the climate destabilizes catastrophically and permanently from its original state. This is similar to what happened on Venus when the planet lost all its atmosphere into outer space. Runaway global warming is thought to have occurred to Venus 4 billion years ago because of a very high carbon-rich atmosphere and exceptionally high average surface temperatures.)
The final stages of runaway global heating will create a literal Climageddon meltdown where almost nothing can survive because there will be no atmosphere. Our total extinction event could enter its first phase when our average global temperature rises above 6 degrees Celcius.
At a 5-6 degree Celcius increase in global temperature, the additional tipping point releases of methane from coastal deposits, and the permafrost will skyrocket atmospheric methane and carbon levels and average global temperatures.
Here is how this happens. At a 5-6 degree Celcius temperature increase, the coastal methane deposits and the permafrost "methane time bomb" go off. This sudden explosion of massive amounts of atmospheric methane and carbon will take us from the 5-6 degree Celcius carbon level of 500-600 parts per million (ppm) far too quickly to the atmospheric carbon levels of carbon 800 ppm, carbon 1,000 ppm, carbon 1,200 ppm and even to carbon 1,600 ppm and beyond. (For reference, our climate was stable for hundreds of thousands of years at about carbon 270 ppm. We are currently at about carbon 421 ppm as of March 2022. This carbon 270 to 421 ppm increase has occurred since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, which was powered by burning fossil fuels.)
Unfortunately, there is also another way we could enter into a global warming-caused total extinction event. That would be as global average temperatures reach a 3-6 degrees Celcius level. At those temperature levels, there will be increasing mass starvation and a mass migration of desperate climagees (climate refugees.)
To survive, countries in the many unsafe zones will demand land and resources from countries in the safer zones. As a result, regional and international conflicts and wars will break out over the minimal safer land areas and remaining resources.
These wars will be of ultimate desperation and will undoubtedly include chemical, biological, and even nuclear weapons. All weapons available will be used to force those governments in the global warming safer zones to open their borders to the billions of desperate climagees because there will not be enough resources available in the safer zones to support the billions of climagees. The most vicious wars the world has ever seen will likely be fought over the safest remaining areas on Earth in humanity's last fight for survival!
What is also essential to keep in mind when viewing our potential for a runaway global heating near-total extinction event beginning in about 50-70 years is that a mass extinction event is already unfolding at an accelerating pace, and it will come to full realization by mid-century. And, we only have until about 2025 left to reduce global fossil fuel use enough to prevent crossing the three most deadly global warming tipping points and bringing about the mid and later phases of near-total extinction.
How to say all of the above on an emotional level in a 7-minute must-see video; click here now!
Why all is not hopeless and all of humanity will not go extinct
While a global heating consequence-driven near-total extinction is probable, a total extinction is not probable or realistic because of the combination of natural and human system counteractions. Our runaway global heating emergency will have horrible consequences. These consequences are so bad there is no need to exaggerate them.
Understanding the differences between a runaway global heating-driven mass extinction, a near-total extinction event, and a total extinction event is essential to answer the question in the headline of this article.
This article will not only clarify those differences. It will also strengthen or restore a rational, balanced, and scientifically appropriate hope for our runaway global heating future.
The different levels of a runaway global heating-driven extinction are defined as:
- We have been so grossly ineffective in slowing and reversing global heating for so long that about half of the human population will die by mid-century. This mass extinction is unavoidable because of our 60 years of climate inaction, ineffective action, and denial.
- A global heating-driven near-total human extinction is a scenario where as much as 50-90+% of humanity could go extinct before we slow and reverse the current runaway global heating. (The processes of near-total extinction is partially described in the first three extinction-accelerating tipping points on this page and then on this page.)
- A global heating-driven total human extinction can only occur if we allow carbon levels in the atmosphere to rise to 800 to 1700 parts per million (ppm). At those levels, we risk our atmosphere being pulled out into space and 100% of everything else that depends upon oxygen suffocating and going entirely extinct.
Fortunately, long before we reach those extreme carbon 800-1700 atmospheric carbon ppm levels, Mother Nature will step in with very tough medicine. Her excruciating intervention may result in close to a near-total extinction, but not total extinction!
We will not all go extinct because Mother Nature's "tough medicine" will intensify in lockstep with the increasing severity, frequency, and scale of many of the primary and secondary consequences of global heating described in detail on this page.
In the end, it may be the powerful remedial counteractions of Mother Nature and not our own remedial actions that ultimately saves us from ourselves.
Why total human extinction is unrealistic and highly improbable
The Job One research team must humbly admit that we too failed to fully allow for the appropriate compensatory weighting for several natural climate destabilization counteractions in our previous global heating research analysis. These natural counteractions intrinsically respond to and act to powerfully counter our rapidly worsening climate systems and subsystems.
This generally unacknowledged underestimation error has also been a significant problem in other researchers and organizations' current global heating predictions. This underestimation issue is crucial because it creates a significant error in runaway global warming extinction predictions. Nevertheless, numerous researchers have been convinced and maintain that humanity faces an inevitable climate change-driven total extinction.
This article discusses why Job One for Humanity has revised its materials on the runaway global heating driven mass, near-total, or total extinction controversy.
Previously the Job One for humanity organization held this could only true if we did not get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. However, based on a new analysis by Job One on the factors listed below, we now believe that while the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century is still unavoidable, total human extinction caused by primary and secondary global heating consequences likely occurring from about 2050 to 2080 (or sooner) is neither probable nor likely.
Based on our new analysis that now includes previously ignored or discounted both natural and human counteractions, we still predict that if we can get close to the 2025 targets, humanity will, at worst, only face a near-total extinction. Before we go over the critical natural and human counteractions to runaway global warming that can potentially save 50 to 90+% of humanity (even if we don't fix runaway global heating in time.)
One helpful way to think about these counteractions is to know that the more you increase the "costs" of some action, the more likely the effects of those "costs" will cause and bring into being counteractions. This principle is like the Newton's 3rd law that "for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction." This corrective and counteracting process will become more apparent as you review the many rising "costs" of our runaway global heating consequences and the increased likelihood that natural and human counteractions will eventually mitigate those costs.
Natural counteractions that have been seriously under-estimated in the previous climate and global heating predictions
In our newest analysis of future runaway global heating consequences, we discovered that many discounted or omitted natural and human dialectical counteractions would also occur. This discounting and omission issue has resulted in even more individuals and groups predicting we are in an inescapable and inevitable runaway global heating-driven total human extinction process. Some individuals and groups have said that total human extinction will occur in as little as the next 9-10 years.
An actual global heating-driven total extinction event can only occur if we put so much greenhouse gas into the atmosphere that our atmosphere is ripped off into space. Unfortunately, this is what happened to Venus because of ever-rising global temperatures.
The strange but good news here on Earth is that total extinction will be prevented because so much of humanity will be long dead before we ever get to the extreme levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas, which could cause total human extinction.
To help you understand what those predicting inevitable total human extinction have missed or underestimated, it is necessary to start with the natural counteractions that "Mother Nature" will activate as runaway global heating worsens. The following natural counteractions are the only counteractions that of and by themselves alone have the power to save humanity from its own lousy fossil fuel decisions and actions. But there is mixed bad and good news about fixing the incorrect total extinction prediction failure by including the effects of these natural counteractions issues properly:
Here is the mixed news:
- The death of half of humanity by mid-century is still unavoidable. We ignored six decades of valid scientific warnings and have been totally ineffective in slowing accelerating runaway global heating.
- Because of natural counteractions to rising global temperatures in the climate's systems and subsystems, we can still save most of the other 50% of humanity (but only if we get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible.)
- Even if we widely miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, Mother Nature's counteracting climate-related primary and secondary consequences will soon accelerate exponentially. This will ensure ALL of humanity does not perish. (If we miss the targets, there will just be far less of us than if we got close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.)
On the one hand, at this point, you may be wondering how Mother Nature will "allow" a mass or even a near-total human extinction to occur while, on the other hand, still "preventing" us from going totally extinct? It is because of a dialectical twist of evolutionary fate.
How Mother Nature's natural counteractions, consequences, and systems will be the dominant force saving humanity from itself and total extinction
Complex adaptive systems have "harmful" feedback loops and tipping points that can make the system worse, more unstable, or eventually crash. On the other hand, complex adaptive systems also have "helpful" countering feedback loops and tipping points that at specific points can trigger and make the climate system better, and more stable and eventually restore the system to equilibrium or near-equilibrium.
Although most of the most prominent "harmful" climate feedback loops and tipping points are known, most of the "helpful" natural climate feedback loops and tipping points are still unknown. This is because humanity has never studied anything like what is happening to us with our current runaway global heating emergency. But rest assured, these "helpful" feedback loops and tipping points are there because we have seen these "helpful" feedback loops and tipping points gradually restoring other harmed or crashed ecological systems back into new equilibrium states.
We have observed many predator-prey ecological systems that have nearly collapsed and then rebalanced once again using new processes involving new feedback loops and different tipping points that push the system back closer to its original equilibrium. This same "helpful" feedback loop and tipping point rebalancing mechanism exists within the climate's systems and subsystems.
These helpful tipping points and feedback loops can also help control the speed and damage levels of the runaway global heating extinction emergency. And then, at some point, they can trigger into action, further assisting Mother Nature in beginning the restoration and rebalancing process and doing what is necessary to preserve the critical conditions for humanity to exist.
Here is how those counteraction processes look for our future.
Mother Nature's counteractions are as follows:
- In perfect lockstep with our rising global heating, Mother Nature's immutable laws of climate physics will continue ratcheting-up ever-intensifying climate and global heating-related consequences to kill off hundreds of millions of us and then billions. The initial main ways Mother Nature will kill us off will be through low crop yields, crop failures, and soaring crop prices. Global crops will fail or be stunted because of global warming aggravated heatwaves, rain bombs, droughts, flooding, wildfires, out-of-season cold spells, hail, Derechos (severe wind storms), and other extreme weather which destabilizes normal growing season conditions. The world's five principal grains (rice, wheat, maize [corn], millet, and sorghum) are particularly vulnerable to climate-caused massive crop failure. This global heating-related crop failure occurs when temperatures (heat waves) are near or above 100 degrees Fahrenheit for about 30 days during the regular growing season. Increasing starvation always increases mass migration to wherever there is more food. These hunger-driven mass migrations will cause more local, regional, and national conflicts, creating a new amplifying feedback loops of even more mass starvation, soaring food prices, economic instability, and more conflict. As these starvation and migration conflicts grow in food-growing and producing countries, food production also will drop because of the many food-growing and transportation disruptions caused directly or indirectly by those expanding conflicts.
- This massive kill-off will continue unabated until there are so few of us left that humanity is no longer capable of raising or maintaining global temperatures by burning so much fossil fuel.
- The minimal critical point at which Mother Nature will stop killing us is when she has killed enough of us, so global fossil fuel use goes down. No additional greenhouse gases (carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide) are being added to the atmosphere.
- Mother Nature's final kill-off stage is where so little additional greenhouse gas is being added to the atmosphere by remaining survivors that the atmosphere has the opportunity to start naturally removing existing greenhouse gases.
The simplicity of what Mother Nature is doing is just taking the naturally and already occurring consequences of accelerating runaway global heating and then using the results of those consequences to eventually slow and reverse those consequences.
How long will it take for Mother Nature to kill off enough of us to save the rest of us?
Unless our governments mass mobilize and come close to the 2025 targets soon, the critical point where Mother Nature stops managing rising greenhouse gases by killing us off will likely be well into the second half of the 21st century. On the other hand, if we get close to the 2025 targets soon, Mother Nature might stop killing us off far closer to 2050-2060.
Unfortunately, Mother Nature may likely keep killing us off with more intense global heating consequences beyond just the number of us she needs to kill us off to stop adding more greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere by the remaining population. Unfortunately, predicting helpful natural system tipping points and feedback correction timeframes is not currently possible for complex adaptive systems as complex as natural systems interacting with human systems.)
The natural kill-off process is not a theory. We have already seen Mother Nature's global heating kill-off counteractions. Mother Nature is already directly or indirectly killing off tens of millions of us each year from only our current level of runaway global heating consequences.
Overall, Mother Nature's global heating kill-off counteractions are a measure of positive news for anyone who has worried that there is no hope for humanity and our civilization.
In the first illustration below, the blue line represents rising primary and secondary runaway global heating consequences. These rising consequences will cause the climate and other systems within Mother Nature to keep killing off more and more humans (the green line) until humans are no longer capable of overheating the Earth by burning fossil fuels. About mid-century (2050) is when we estimate the lines will cross and about half of humanity will have perished and the die-off will start slowing down.
In the second illustration below, one can see that the more of humanity that dies the green line the more that global fossil fuel will fall the blue line.
How human system counteractions will also be a contributing force helping to save humanity from total extinction
It is also wise to review the significant human counteractions that will take place as runaway global heating worsens and its costs, suffering, and deaths rise. But, neither individually nor cumulatively will these human counteractions occur in time to save about half of humanity from extinction by mid-century. Additionally, neither separately nor collectively will the following human counteractions alone happen in time to save us from near-total extinction.
Too many severe global heating consequences are already in the pipeline. This is because for the last 60 years we have been so ineffective in resolving global heating emergency.
Here are the primary human counteractions to the intensifying consequences of the runaway global heating extinction emergency:
- Eventually, our governments will pass and enforce laws that will radically reduce fossil fuel use. These new and enforceable fossil fuel reduction laws will drastically reduce global fossil fuel use.
- Eventually, our governments will create revenue-neutral, Fee and Dividend-based fossil fuel reduction programs. These Fee and Dividend-based programs will significantly disincentivize using fossil fuels and greatly incentivize greener energy use.
- Each year we will build more non-fossil fuel alternative energy generation systems to replace the current fossil fuel energy generation.
- We will add more natural sequestration systems to remove more fossil fuel pollution from our atmosphere.
- We will better protect and preserve existing natural carbon sequestration systems.
- Eventually, we will discover and use at scale, sustainable and appropriate technologies which are considerably different from what most people understand as new technologies. Once scaled up, these appropriate technologies will help us transition away from fossil fuels and possibly even help remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.
- Eventually, our governments will pass and enforce laws that will make fossil fuels nearly impossible to use for all but a few minimal and essential uses.
- Eventually, to ensure we never have this problem again, current governments (or those governments that survive the post-fossil fuel great global collapse) will evolve new economic and political systems and laws. These laws will change the paradigm of over-consumption, pollution, waste, overshoot, unmanaged population growth, and ecological over-exploitation.
- Eventually, because the unimaginable pain and trauma of the runaway global heating caused great global collapse will be so severe, the survivors will find a way to manage the surviving world for the sustainable benefit of ALL humanity and not just for privileged nations or billionaires.
As a rule, the worse the consequence "action costs" of runaway global heating get (i.e., financial losses, ecological damage, human suffering, and deaths), the faster and harder governments and others will react and enact the above human counteractions to runaway global heating. Humanity will change its behaviors when the pain of going forward with those changes is less than the pain of staying where it is.
In the illustration below, the green line represents the rising and intensifying consequences of runaway global heating. The blue line represents the locked-in relationship of dependable, continuous, faster and harder reactions using all possible human counteractions in lockstep with the rising painful consequences of runaway global heating.
Yes, the above human counteractions will be too little and too late by themselves to save humanity. But when added to Mother Nature's horrible kill-off counteractions, they provide the additional opportunity to save even more of post mid-century humanity because the above human counteractions will also act to contribute to and help slow and lower our rising global temperature.
When all of the above less powerful secondary human counteractions are added to the natural counteractions, they will act as an additional counteracting brake on rising global temperatures. This also will help Mother Nature ensure that humanity will not go beyond near-total extinction. But even without the following additional human counteractions, Mother Nature's massive kill-off alone will save us from total extinction. The above human counteractions are just extra insurance and can help save more of us sooner.
Unfortunately, there is still this awful news to deal with. All of the above natural and human counteractions will still not be enough or be able to be scaled up in time to save about half of humanity from going extinct by mid-century in what will be an excruciatingly, horrible, and painful process. This means that whoever survives the mid-century extinction will face centuries to thousands of years of deprivation and suffering before Mother Nature can fully rebalance herself and get the atmospheric carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide levels down to where our global temperature goes back to a level better suited for optimal human existence and reproduction.
How much of humanity may perish after mid-century
At this point, you may be wondering how much of humanity Mother Nature's counteractions could save? Here are some estimates.
If we fail to radically reduce current global fossil fuel use and get close to the 2025 global targets as soon as possible:
1. some believe Mother Nature will keep killing us off until we get back down to what is known as the Earth's sustainable carrying capacity of about 1.5 billion people.
2. others believe we will be lucky to have 10% or less of humanity still living in 2080 to 2100. This very high die-off level is because global heating will keep rising for decades even after Mother Nature has killed off enough of us to stop adding more carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide levels to our atmosphere. Moreover, global heating will continue to rise for about another 2-3 decades even after we entirely stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere because of pre-existing global heating momentum already within the climate system.
If we fail to get close to the 2025 targets, it is also critical to realize that the conditions for the after mid-century survivors will be so bad most will wish they had not survived. (Click here to see the primary and secondary global heating-related consequences they will experience if we fail to get close to the 2025 targets.)
Once you have reviewed those horrendous escalating consequences, there will be a little doubt that humanity's only viable solution for humanity's future is to get as close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible.
Conclusion for This Section
From the above, all is not hopeless, and a global heating-driven total extinction is not the realistic or probable outcome of runaway global heating. On the contrary, the closer we get to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, the more of the surviving 50% of humanity will be able to survive past mid-century. Additionally, the quality of life of those who do survive the pre-mid-century unavoidable extinction process will be made far more unbearable the longer it takes us to get to close to the critical 2025 global targets.
When you analyze and include all of the human "harmful" climate feedback loops and tipping points along with all of the counteracting and "helpful" natural and human feedback loops and tipping points, you get a climate/human connected system that will eventually "self" correct through a very painful, rough and extremely high "costs" process.
Today many climate researchers and individuals still have either omitted or have deeply underestimated the effects of Newton's 3rd law on climate systems and subsystems. They have largely ignored natural and human counteractions in the form of "helpful" climate system feedback loops and tipping points. The unfortunate news is that most individuals who do believe that the runaway global heating situation is hopeless have simply given up.
Because they believe total extinction is inevitable, they are doing nothing substantive to do their critical part to get our governments to act while we still have time. They fail to see our runaway global heating emergency as just another evolutionary opportunity that will force us to finally make the many economic, social, environmental, and political changes that, sooner or later, we will be forced to make anyway.
But fortunately, a more profound dialectical evolutionary climate truth shines brightest. If we get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets soon, as much as half of humanity could survive the runaway global heating extinction emergency. This truly is a realistic and appropriate hope worth fighting and working for wholeheartedly.
And finally, because we are doing so poorly getting close to the required 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, and Mother Nature's kill-off counteraction is the only thing that can scale up in lockstep with the accelerating crisis, Mother Nature's kill-off counteractions will be the primary and the most likely way that a portion of humanity will survive the runaway global heating extinction emergency.
Technical Notes for This Section Only:
- This article resulted from a new dialectical meta-systemic and system theory-based analysis of the most recent climate research viewing the climate as a complex adaptive system.
- This article re-examined climate research and the contexts, processes, relationships, and transformations occurring within the climate's dynamic systems and subsystems. During this process, we discovered that the natural and human counteractions (some in helpful climate feedback loops and tipping points) were not adequately considered or weighted in our and other climate and global heating predictions.
- If we reach an increase of 4-6 degrees Celsius in average global temperature, we will experience vast releases of stored carbon and methane from our oceans, soils, trees, and the coastal ocean shelves. But, it is highly improbable we will reach these temperature levels because of the natural and human counteractions described above. As temperatures rise, the human die-off will be so steep that there will not be enough us left burning fossil fuels to be able to reach a 4-6 degrees Celsius level. For the last six decades, it has taken about 25 additional carbon parts per million (ppm) to be added to the atmosphere to raise the average global temperature by 1/2 degree Fahrenheit. (One degree Celcius is equal to about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.) That means that at the current level of adding 3 new carbon ppm per year to our atmosphere, it takes 8+ years to raise the average global temperature by 1/2 degree Fahrenheit. We have presently raised the average global temperature by 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. This means we have another 2.8 degrees of Celsius to go before entering a hazardous area for total extinction. Getting to 4 degrees Celcius will take about 40-50 years. By then, much of humanity will be long dead, and our greenhouse gas levels will have stopped rising (possibly even dropping a bit), preventing us from reaching 4 degrees Celsius. For the sake of wild argument, even if we cross additional global heating tipping points that cause a 50% reduction in the total time left to prevent reaching 4 degrees Celsius, so many of us will die off in the next 20-30 years, we will still not add enough additional fossil fuel pollutants in parts per million to the atmosphere to reach the 4 degrees Celsius level.
- Anyone saying that the climate science shows that All of humanity will invariably go extinct from runaway global warming consequences does not understand there are no 100% certainties in science because new discoveries are constantly qualifying and adjusting by older research.
- Current dialectical meta-systemic analysis of recent climate research does not support the wild predictions of a climate-driven total human extinction in 10, 20, 30, or even 40 years. We have time left to act and at worst we will only suffer a near-total extinction, but we need everyone immediately rowing in the same direction at full strength to minimize future human extinction losses and suffering.
- According to a 2020 study published in Scientific Reports, if deforestation and resource consumption (aka overshoot) continue at current rates, they could culminate in a "catastrophic collapse in human population" and possibly "an irreversible collapse of our civilization" in the next 20 to 40 years.
- According to the most optimistic scenario provided by another study, the chances that human civilization survives is less than 10%. (See Nafeez, Ahmed. "Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Several Decades". Vice. Retrieved 2 August 2021. Also see Bologna, M.; Aquino, G. (2020). "Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis." Scientific Reports. 10 (7631): 7631. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-63657-6. PMC 7203172. PMID 32376879.)
Now that you have finished the 28 reasons, do you believe that runaway global heating is out of our current control?
Please take a moment and consider the question we listed at the beginning of this article and the questions below. This is also the most critical issue relevant to the future quality of your life.
"Do you believe that our governments can work together to enforce a national and international resolution to the runaway global heating extinction emergency by coming close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets within the remaining time left (2025-2031)?"
The second question for our collective and individual future is:
"Can we still prevent a global heating-caused near-total extinction event from occurring while we are simultaneously dealing with an unavoidable mass extinction event, which is already occurring?"
The third question for our collective and individual future is:
"With the little remains time we have left, do you believe that generations X, Y, and Z can bring enough pressure on our politicians, governments, and billionaires to get them to get our governments to get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets?"
(The older generations squandered the last 60 years in inaction and ineffective actions. They can no longer be depended upon to fix the runaway global heating extinction emergency.)
You should know the answer to the first question above by this time.
The second question is the most critical question that no politician currently addresses! Yet, there is no more crucial question for the survival of humanity that must be faced and managed, or there will be no future for humanity!
The third question is something every young and older person will decide for themselves.
The above three questions and their solutions are the core climate and runaway global heating questions we face and manage at Job One for Humanity in an honest, adult manner.
The position of Job One for Humanity on runaway global heating
As of 5.23.2022, we at Job One believe that there is now little we can do to prevent the mass extinction deaths of about half of humanity by mid-century. However, we also think we can keep humanity from reaching near-total extinction.
Furthermore, we believe that we can save much of the other half of humanity (what we call near-total extinction) if we just can get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible.
Because of our position on runaway global warming, we have continually been forced to update our science-based remedial plan to adapt to this emergency over the last 12 years. Our most current resilience-building plan is the Job One for Humanity, Plan B for Runaway Global Heating. If honestly executed, it has a reasonable probability of preventing the near-total extinction of humanity.
This new Plan B is ultimately practical. It helps individuals make the critical emergency preparations and adaptions needed to deal with our unfolding mass extinction process while still promoting all of the vital actions our governments must do to prevent the near-total extinction of humanity.
Plan B will help us save some future for some generations X, Y, Z, and A. So, if you (like our organization) believe that we can get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets sometime between 2025 and 2031, please immediately start the Job One Plan B for Runaway Global Heating.
Job One For Humanity is now publically stating that a climate change-triggered extinction event of about half of humanity by mid-century is now unavoidable! (This widespread mass extinction event will be caused by the primary and secondary climate change consequences described on this page.)
This first extinction-level event will result mostly from mass starvation due to climate change-related crop failures, low crop yields, soaring food prices, and growing regional conflicts as tens of millions of starving climate refugees seek to find new homes to eat and survive.
While we are still focusing on preventing extinction, with our new Plan B, we have shifted some of our mission focus toward also helping individuals, families, and businesses prepare, adapt, and build climate resilience (and other kinds of resilience) both in their homes and businesses and in essential local, regional, and national systems. This new Plan B reflects our upgraded mission focuses on maximizing all the possible human, biological and ecological good within our extremely difficult and painful current climate position by:
A. preparing for, adapting to, and building enhanced human and biological resilience to survive climate change's ongoing catastrophic or unavoidable consequences while time remains to do so.
This getting prepared step also means that it is time to educate and prepare humanity for the many huge sacrifices we have to make to get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. And it is also time to start getting humanity ready for the unimaginable and unavoidable, soon-arriving suffering.
B. pressing our governments hard and continuously to enforce radically cutting global fossil fuel use to get close to the 2025 global targets to slow down runaway global heating sufficiently so that we can avoid near-total human and biological extinction and, more of humanity can live a little longer and more securely. (We can no longer save half of humanity, but we still have a chance to save much of the rest of humanity.)
C. pressing our governments for the creation of effective global climate governance that has the power to make effective global climate law with the ability to verify, enforce, and punish violators. Without effective global climate governance, we will never be able to:
1. slow down the current climate-driven extinction and collapse,
2. manage the coming and now unavoidable climate-driven population collapse and sudden global decline, and
3. wisely and equitably create and manage the post-global heating collapse recovery processes.
D. And, if we do not get close to the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, with the hope that a good portion of the human population will survive we:
1. help younger individuals and families migrate from high-risk global heating areas to safer areas before it is too late to make these moves, (We forward the position that younger generations (X.Y Z, and A) who did not create or ignore the runaway global heating extinction nightmare have a far greater right to occupy the remaining global heating safest lands and to survive longer.)
2. support building many urban and rural new ecologically sustainable communities worldwide for our younger generations that:
1. might also allow at least some small part of our younger generations to survive where they are currently living, through the coming climate-change-propelled global collapse, extinction, and possible rebirth process and cycle,
2. might learn from and apply the many hard lessons of runaway global heating and the other ecological, economic, and political consequences which will happen to us because of the ultimate consequences of our current overconsuming, highly unsustainable, and inequitable lives.
If there are survivors in these eco-communities, they and their eco-communities would serve as "beacons of light" modeling the critical new ideas, new values and new behaviors for an eventual Great Global Rebirth. To see what these new ideas, new values and new behaviors might look like click here and look at Benefit 1.
(Please be aware that the continuous pain and suffering any survivors will go through is so immense and unimaginable that many survivors will wish they had died in the Great Global Collapse. For most, survival will be closer to a subsistence existence. Because surviving runaway global heating will be a living hell, we must lessen that hell for survivors by getting as close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as is possible.)
3. help our governments develop crisis plans for managing the sudden and massive loss of life and unfolding social and economic chaos from now until mid-century from the unavoidable runaway global heating consequences.
Because of our 60 years of inaction and ineffective action on the global heating emergency, the informative creative destruction that will occur as half the human population unavoidably goes extinct is unconscionable and the greatest horror in human history. Yet, it is also an equally powerful opportunity to create a better world and a great global rebirth. (To learn more about the many benefits, improvements, and new societal values that could emerge for humanity from this unsought-after evolutionary challenge and opportunity, click here.)
And finally, those individuals who have come to the painful conclusion that we have a near-complete lack of ability to even come close to the 2025 targets immediately take the new next two steps below:
1. They click here to see the four most common decisions people make on how to personally deal with the climate change and runaway global heating extinction emergency, once they realize the horrible climate mess we have created! And,
2. They start the Plan B, which is their "survive and thrive" kit.
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