(If you do not clearly understand what global warming is, what are its proven consequences or how it's tipping points work, we strongly advise you click here first to learn about global warming basics and then continue to 20 worst consequences and the 11 key tipping points and finally to this page about why global warming has become irreversible for at least the next 50 years before you begin the rest of this document. The brief Climageddon Scenario overview and illustrations below are from the new book: Climageddon, The Global Warming Emergency and How to Survive it. For the full details documenting the material below get the book.)
What is the Climageddon Scenario
The Climageddon Scenario is a new global warming prediction model. It was created from global warming research to help individuals visualize a 6 phase process of escalating global warming as one interconnected whole as well as one interdependent and continually evolving climate, biological, geological and human system.
In a way never seen before, it both sequences and integrates the most important global warming consequences and tipping points into a new and more accurate and useful consequence and timeframe prediction model.
The following chart illustrates how much the Earth's average global temperatures will rise above their preindustrial, pre-fossil fuel use levels. The shocking timeframes in which the 6 phases will unfold is found further down this page.
As you can see the average global temperatures go up well beyond anything Earth has seen for millions of years. Understanding the already-in-progress progression of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario is life-critical for any individual, organization, or nation that takes planning for their physical and financial security or future seriously. It is also crucial to anyone involved in:
personal, financial or security mid- to long-range planning,
city, corporate, or national mid- to long-range planning,
planning, financing, or building mid- to long-term infrastructure such as highways, water treatment or sewage plants, power plants, transfer stations, power lines, hospitals, government buildings, manufacturing facilities, military bases, corporate headquarters, real estate developments, and telecommunications facilities.
insurance risk or threat assessment,
The Climageddon Scenario's later phase estimated timeframes unfold with high probability (phases 3, 4 and 5 below) once global warming has reached irreversibility in the later part of phase 2.
Understanding the Climageddon Scenario will help you to see our current escalating global warming emergency as a holistic gestalt. (A gestalt in holism is the idea that the properties of natural systems should also be viewed as an interconnected, interdependent unified whole and not simply as collections of, or summations of, separate non-interdependent or interconnected parts.)
Please also keep in mind that the temperature, atmosheric carbon levels in parts per million (ppm,) as well as loss/cost levels described below or above for each phase of the scenario are not hard and rigid boundaries, but are boundary ranges designed to help you think about a set of related consequences and their intensities associated with that phase of the scenario.
Breaking down the three levels of consequence and tipping point interactions which create the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario.
The interactions of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario are incredibly complex. In order to help the reader cut through this complexity, we have provided the following three illustrations.
When you are reading the three levels of interaction behind the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario, imagine you are looking at the assembly of all of the necessary elements to construct level by level and piece by piece, the perfect storm of perfect storms! Furthermore, unless we make radical changes immediately, the perfect storm of global warming consequences and tipping points interacting on all of the three levels illustrated in this section will create a cascading collective meltdown of continuous catastrophes, which will eventually crash economic markets, collapse governments and bring civilization as we know it today to an near complete end.
Illustration #1 of the Climageddon Scenario: Global Warming Consequences
In illustration one below, many things are happening simultaneously. First, it shows an overview of the key consequences of escalating global warming as global warming intensifies. Next, through the dotted lines interconnecting all of the listed consequences, it draws attention to the important fact that these consequences do not operate separately from each other. They interact!
In most cases, when any one of these global warming consequences (i.e. flooding, wildfires, drought, sea level rise due to melting sea ice and glaciers etc.) increases in frequency, severity, or scale, they begin interacting with one or more of the other consequences, making them more frequent, severe, and larger in scale as these consequences interact between themselves in positive feedback loops.
Now imagine that as global warming continues to intensify, these collective consequences increase once again to an even higher level of frequency, severity, and scale. Once again these consequences will begin interacting with more and more of the other consequences making the rest of the consequences intensify and occur more frequently, be more severe and also cover larger areas. In other words, when one escalates, it tends to trigger other consequences to do the same. Eventually so many of them will be interacting in a positive feedback loop that we will be facing ecological and climate chaos.
Illustration #2 of the Climageddon Scenario: Crossed Biological, Geological and Climate Tipping Points
In illustration two, the key biological, geological and climate tipping points of escalating global warming are listed. The dotted and interconnecting lines through all these tipping points graphically show that they do not stand alone or operate separately from each other. For instance, ocean heating (E) is caused by increased atmospheric temperature. Enough ocean heating triggers a plankton dying tipping point and then increased melting sea ice, methane releases from the ocean bottom and water vapor increases to name only a few of its interactions with other tipping points.
When any one of these global warming tipping points are crossed, they can, and usually do cross over and begin interacting with one or more of the other tipping points, making those other tipping points more likely to cross their own internal tipping points in a positive feedback loop of tipping points feeding and interacting off of and with each other.
Now imagine as global warming continues to intensify not just one or two of these tipping points will be crossed, but many of them will be crossed. As these tipping points begin interacting and collapsing into each other, they literally ensure that many more tipping points will be crossed!
Illustration #3 of the Climageddon Scenario: Human System Tipping Points
Illustration three shows the key human system tipping points that will be dramatically affected as more global warming consequences occur and intensify and, as more global warming tipping points are crossed in biological, geological and climate systems.
The arrowed lines between the four key human system tipping points below show that these tipping points involved in human systems also do not stand alone or operate separately from each other or from the biological, geological or climate tipping points listed in illustration 2 above. Unfortunately, these human system tipping points also interact in deadly positive feedback loops.
As global warming continues to intensify, so will the likelihood of war, political financial and social collapse. When too many human system tipping points have been crossed, we will face levels of system failure and collapse unlike anything seen in history.
The above is how the perfect storm of perfect storms known as the Climageddon Scenario unfolds. When you begin viewing the Climageddon Scenario model as an integrated climate, human, and biological super system, as well as seeing it from a meta-systemic perspective, you will also discover:
a. new critical relationships between climate, human, biological and geological systems and processes,
b. new qualifying and conditioning climate, human, biological and geological contexts, and finally,
c. new phase-by-phase catastrophic interactions magnifying the transformations of interconnected and interdependent climate, human, biological and geological system consequences and tipping points that will dramatically worsen our lives.
What people do not easily grasp about the Climageddon Scenario is, that it is not just how bad the individual effects of the various consequences and tipping points will be. It is not even how bad the collective and/or cumulative effects of the various consequences and tipping points will be.
What they do not easily realize is that --- it is the total synergetic effect, which is far more than the sum of global warming's consequence or tipping point component parts, which creates a cascading consequence and tipping point meltdown and multiplies the threat and risk levels to such a point that once understood, no rational person would ever allow the Climageddon Scenario to unfold past the later part of phase 1.
Where are we now?
Carbon parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere is the best measurement how bad things are. As of December, 2017 we are somewhere near carbon 411 ppm. Geologically safe levels of atmospheric carbon for humanity to flourish would be closer to 270 ppm.
As you can see from the chart below we are way out of the safe zone already. At carbon 500 ppm the geologic record has repeatedly shown that all ice on earth will begin a melting process that will be irreversible for hundreds to thousands of years. The result of all ice melting on earth will be an increase in sea level rise of about 320-340 feet.
Seeing the risk levels of the Climageddon Scenario using traditional risk assessment scales.
The illustration below shows the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario in relation to traditional threats and risk assessment scales. The three scales used below are the Torino approaching asteroid scale, the US Homeland Security risk evaluation scale and the US military Defcon scale.
How could we ever let ourselves get so far into this mess
Global warming has already become irreversible and we are in (or about to enter) Phase 2 of the Climageddon Scenario in significant part because of:
- we have continuously failed to effectively slow or reverse global warming. This is in spite of 30+ years of loud and detailed warnings by credible climate scientists, verified scientific research, and 22 international conferences on how to solve the global warming crisis.
major miscalculations from the world’s leading global warming authorities by about 20-40% or more concerning how fast and severe the consequences of global warming will be. (Many of these major miscalculations include critical omissions such as crossing the 11 most dangerous global warming tipping points are fully referenced in Chapter 7 of the newClimageddon book and are also found here.)
- unconscionable groupthink illusions and delusions used and held by our global warming authorities at the IPCC Paris Climate Conference concerning possibilities of currently nonexistent atmospheric carbon removal technologies, which may or may not be discovered and successfully implemented until sometime after 2050! (Click here for the full story in how the IPCC "cooked" the calculations to make it appear far safer than we are and to allow fossil fuel companies to keep burning unconscionably far more fossil fuels than we should be.)
we are now trapped by the reality of the minimum time needed to convert all global fossil fuel energy generation systems into green energy generation systems (currently about 35-50 years and probably much more). This means carbon in the atmosphere will reach 500 ppm where all ice and glaciers on the planet will begin and continue melting.
we have crossed too many known and unknown important global warming tipping points over the last 30+ years within our climate systems and subsystems that the public still does not know about. This tipping point crossing process invariably locks us into crossing even more dangerous known and unknown global warming tipping points at faster and faster rates, which once again spikes up average global temperature far beyond what has been predicted by our global warming authorities. After we hit carbon 500 ppm which is currently inescapable, we will hit carbon 600 ppm which will most probably trigger a massive release methane from the methane clathrate crystals found on the coastal ocean shelves and that will trigger another massive temperature increase and the end of civilization in a massive extinction event, exactly as it has happened before.
- the complexity of the global climate: the massive number of interconnections, interactions, interdependencies, tipping points, and nonlinear reactions within the climate's many complex adaptive systems and subsystems, making the big picture crisis of falling into irreversible global warming invisible to all but a few scientists and big data analysts capable of processing such massive data complexity.
Click here for what you can do to get prepared for the coming global warming catastrophes.
Click here to learn more about our current state of irreversible global warming.
All of the preceding, and far more information about the escalating warming emergency can be found in the Climageddon book. Get your copy now!