Is the Climageddon Scenario Our Best Global Warming Countdown Model for How Humanity Will End?

"You cannot be called an alarmist if there really is something to be alarmed about." Unknown

Introduction

(If you do not clearly understand what global warming (aka climate change) is, what are its proven consequences or how it's tipping points work, we strongly advise that you click here first to learn about global warming basics and then continue to 20 worst consequences and the 11 key tipping points.  Then go to this page about why global warming has now become out of our control for at least the next 50 years before you read the rest of this Climageddon Scenario global warming end of humanity countdown document. Without understanding the preceding basic concepts of global warming, it will be significantly harder to understand how they all work together to create the Climageddon Scenario below.

This document and its illustrations are from the new book: Climageddon, The Global Warming Emergency and How to Survive it. For the full details documenting the materials below please get the new Climageddon book here.

A Quick Overview of the Climageddon Scenario's End of Humanity Countdown

If we do not take immediate action to radically cut fossil fuel use, the Climageddon Scenario will take place. The Climageddon Scenario is a new global warming prediction model to help individuals visualize the six distinct unfolding phases of the escalating global warming emergency.

Our current global warming emergency is composed of 20 major consequences and 11 key tipping points that are integrated into one interconnected whole as well as one interdependent, interconnected and continually evolving set of climate, human, and biological processes and systems. The Climageddon Scenario sequences and integrates the most important global warming consequences and global warming tipping points in a way never seen before, which helps the reader to visualize the already unfolding global warming end of humanity scenario and countdown.

Understanding the unfolding progression of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario as a type of phase by phase countdown into an increasingly more probable end of the humanity scenario is critical for any individual, organization, or nation that takes planning for their physical security or financial or political future seriously.

The Climageddon Scenario information below is also crucial to anyone involved in:

  1. personal, financial or security short, mid- to long-range planning,

  2. threat, hazard, and insurance risk assessment,

  3. city, corporate, or national mid- to long-range planning, 

  4. planning, financing, or building mid- to long-term infrastructure such as highways, water treatment or sewage plants, power plants, transfer stations, power lines, hospitals, government buildings, manufacturing facilities, military bases, corporate headquarters, real estate developments, and telecommunications facilities.

The Climageddon Scenario and end of the humanity countdown illustration just below will help you to understand escalating global warming as a holistic gestalt. A gestalt in holism is the idea that the properties and processes of natural systems should also be viewed as an interconnected, unified whole and not simply as collections of, or summations of, separate and individual non-interdependent or interconnected parts or actions. Please review the following Climageddon Scenario quick overview illustration from the bottom up as this best reflects the unfolding order of worsening process that will occur as escalating global warming continues. (This illustration will be broken down and explained in detail farther down in this document.)

Please keep in mind that the temperature, carbon ppm, and loss or cost levels described below for each phase of the Climageddon Scenario are not hard and rigid boundaries, but boundary ranges designed to help you think about a set of related consequences and their intensities associated with that phase of the scenario. The temperature, carbon, cost, and loss phase boundary levels below may be modified by future research.

The Climageddon Scenario

The Climageddon Scenario is far more than just the sum of the individual global warming consequences and tipping points presented earlier. In the unfolding phases of this scenario, it becomes easier to see these heat-intensified individual consequences and tipping points churning into something far more dangerous than just the collective summation of individual consequences or tipping points. Collectively, all of these things create and fuel the deadly later stages of the Climageddon Scenario described fully below.

When you begin viewing the Climageddon Scenario model as an integrated climate, human, and biological super system, as well as seeing it from a meta-systemic perspective, you will also discover:

  1. new critical relationships between the climate, human, and biological systems and processes,

  2.  new qualifying and conditioning climate, human, and biological contexts, and finally,

  3.  new phase-by-phase catastrophic interactions and magnifying transformations of interconnected and interdependent climate, human, and biological system consequences that will dramatically worsen our lives.

Don’t worry if you do not see the big picture quite yet. There is a lot to see within it. To help you, there are illustrations throughout this document.

One last thing: all temperature amounts in this document or any other document on our website are always displayed as the Celsius or Fahrenheit increase from preindustrial average global temperatures. 

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Assigning risk levels to the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario

To help you put into perspective the serious implications of the consequences unfolding at each of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario, we use three commonly recognized risk, threat, and hazard alert scales. Those three scales are:

  1. The DEFCON 5-1 levels used by the U.S. government and military regarding preparedness for nuclear or conventional war. (The DEFCON rating system goes from 5 to 1. DEFCON 5 is normal peacetime military readiness, and 1 is highest military alert, such as imminent nuclear war. As the climate continues to destabilize, at some point the nations of the world will have to declare emergency regulations and martial law to deal with the escalating crisis and the internal and external instability it creates. Using this scale is appropriate because if left unchecked, global warming will parallel and eventually exceed the destructiveness of all non-nuclear world wars.)

  2. The current US Homeland Security Advisory System. (The Homeland Security Advisory System is a color-coded terrorism threat advisory scale. The different levels trigger specific actions by federal agencies and state and local governments, and they affect the level of security at some airports and other public facilities. Although this is a terrorist threat risk system, it is also useful for climate crises. In the mid-to-later phases of the Climageddon Scenario, as our political, economic, and social systems break down, the nations of the world will react similarly to how they would react to a high-level terrorist threat or an actual attack. Martial law and other restrictive emergency measures with curfews, new regulations, loss of civil rights, and normal legal protections will be enacted.)

  3. The Torino Impact Hazard 0-10 Scale used to quantify the many risks and hazards of asteroids of different sizes hitting the earth. (The Torino Scale goes from 0 to 10, where a 0 rating is no hazard or threat and a 10 is “a collision is certain, capable of causing a global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean.”)

There is a good reason to use the Torino Impact Hazard Scale with the Climageddon Scenario. Depending upon what phase of the scenario we enter, how we adapt may be uncannily similar to how we might adapt to survive impacts of various asteroid sizes.

For example, if we knew well in advance that a small, survivable asteroid would hit the earth, using the Torino scale advisories could provide enough time to relocate almost everyone from the local hazardous area of impact. If a larger but still survivable asteroid were to hit, once again using the Torino scale, we could have time to relocate almost everyone from the larger regional area of impact.

Similar to these asteroid impact scenarios, as the escalating global warming emergency continues through the 6 Climageddon Scenario phases, it will also eventually force us to relocate first millions, then billions of people. We will relocate them first locally, then regionally, next nationally, and eventually internationally to the far north or far south.

We may have to move as much of the total human population as can survive even in the poorer soils and shorter growing seasons of the northernmost countries of the world (above the 45th parallel north to Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, Alaska, Iceland, and Greenland), and also potentially below the 45th parallel south to utilize a haven in the south island of New Zealand or the tip of South America.

Assuming you have read the essential information on global warming consequences and tipping points, you are properly prepared to explore the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario described below to see how what we call the perfect storm of perfect storms unfolds.

Introducing the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario (CS)

The beginning and ending boundaries for each phase of the Climageddon Scenario are approximate temperature, time frame, and carbon ppm levels. As such, there will be some inherent overlap in temperature, timetable, and carbon parts per million (ppm) levels between the scenario phases.

While you are reading about the 6 phases below, please keep in mind that as each phase occurs, our ability to control or prevent the subsequent phase drops drastically. This ever-increasing loss of effective control helps to facilitate an ever-increasing chain reaction of more and more crossed tipping points, leading eventually to the extinction event described in Phases 5 and 6 below.

CS Phase 1: Temperature continues to rise, catastrophes increase, and carbon hits 400-450 ppm

Phase 1 is the beginning of catastrophic climate destabilization. Phase 1 is associated with a measurement of atmospheric carbon in the range of 400-450 ppm. As of August 2016, we were at carbon 407 ppm.

In Phase 1, the atmospheric carbon ppm rate continues to increase each year at only 3 ppm per year. The average global temperature continues to go up in a continuous but linear degree-by-degree manner.

In this phase, the many global warming consequences continue increasing in frequency and magnitude, but once again in a linear manner. In Phase 1, the cost of significant single-instance, global warming-influenced disasters will average in the $30-$100 billion range.

In the early stage of Phase 1 (carbon 407-425 ppm) temperatures will increase beyond the estimated current 1.2° Celsius[1] (about 2.2° Fahrenheit) rise. They will increase by about 1.7°-2.2° Celsius (3°-4° Fahrenheit) and millions of people will become climagees and migrate toward the northernmost countries.

“[The] ...atmospheric greenhouse gas levels (~400ppm CO2 and ~485 CO2e [carbon dioxide equivalent]) are likely the highest in the last 15 million years, and never previously experienced by humans. The current conditions, if maintained over centuries/millennia (that is, until the system reaches equilibrium), would likely produce temperature increases of +3-6° Celsius and sea levels 25–40 meters higher, based on evidence of past climates.”  —David Spratt, “Climate Reality Check”[2]

If the average global temperature in Phase 1 continues to rise degree-by-degree, even without crossing any more points of no return or global warming, climate, human, and biological system tipping points, the bad news is we can still bring about the end-of-humanity scenario of the later phases of the Climageddon Scenario.

In the later stages of Phase 1, if we continue only up to carbon 450 ppm, in 16 years or less (about 2022-2032) we can expect an eventual increase in average global temperature of 2.2°-2.7° Celsius (4°-4.9° Fahrenheit), and many more people will either migrate or die. When we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm mark and possibly enter Phase 2, it is highly probable we will continue rapidly toward the 3°, 4°, 5°, and 6° Celsius increases (5.4°, 7.2°, 9°, and 10.8° Fahrenheit).

The steadily rising temperatures of Phase 1 will unfortunately also feed and accelerate the processes of crossing more points of no return and global warming, climate, human, and biological system tipping points. The possibility of maintaining only a gradually increasing average global temperature is highly unlikely (less than 10-20%) because of the higher probability of crossing more tipping points.

In 2016, we added 4 ppm of new carbon to the atmosphere as our per year average. In Phase 1, as well as all of the other 5 phases below, it is highly unlikely that we will be able to maintain the previous average annual increase of only carbon 3 ppm. This is due in part to the Earth's population soaring to 9 billion, causing our estimated energy needs to skyrocket by 40% as more of the world’s population enters into the middle class.

The probability of crossing from Phase 1 into Phase 2 is inevitable because of the 11 factors described at the top of this page, Why global warming is irreversible and basically uncontrollable for at least the next 50+ years.

As described earlier, for each Climageddon phase, three different risk ratings are provided.

Phase 1 US military DEFCON rating:

DEFCON 4, described as increased intelligence gathering and security measures.

Phase 1 US Homeland Security risk rating:

Orange: High risk.

Phase 1 Torino impact rating:

Torino rating 8: The threat is highly certain for localized and regional destruction. Attention by public and governmental contingency planning is merited if the events are less than 3 decades away.

CS Phase 2: We have crossed significant points of no return and more tipping points. Normal life begins changing significantly faster than has been predicted by current authorities (the IPCC,) carbon hits 450-500 ppm

The end of Phase 1 leading into the beginning of Phase 2 is the beginning of irreversible climate destabilization. It is most often associated with a measurement of atmospheric carbon in the range of about 425-450 ppm. Phase 2 can begin as early as carbon 410-425 ppm if the annual carbon ppm per year average does not return to the annual carbon 3 ppm or lower range, or we cross more tipping points.

If the carbon ppm increase averages only around 3 ppm per year in Phase 2, the average global temperature rises faster and in a less gradual (i.e., less linear) manner. In Phase 2, the global warming consequences continue to increase magnitude and frequency, but also in a faster manner. It is important to appreciate the accelerating effect of interacting global warming consequence processes and relationships as the phases unfold. As global warming continues, its consequences will not just become more frequent; they will also keep expanding and intensifying in the other two dimensions of scale and severity.

Phase 2 begins the process of irreversible climate destabilization. It is considered irreversible because the time scale to repair the damage goes far beyond human lifespans. In this phase, the cost of a single instance, global warming-related disaster may average in the $100-$300 billion range.

Because of melting ice and permafrost and crossed tipping points in the Arctic, at the beginning of Phase 2 we are highly likely to cross more points of no return and tipping points in climate human and biological systems. The evidence we could soon enter Phase 2 is already found in the North and South polar regions as they are warming at about twice the speed as the rest of the world.

Rapidly increasing temperatures and changing polar currents have already demonstrated major effects on the weather all over the world. The significantly higher temperature range in the polar regions is a likely “hot spot” to trigger crossing many known and unknown points of no return in these regions.

In addition to our rapidly rising carbon ppm level, another powerful indicator that we are rapidly approaching Phase 2 is the melting and breaking off of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Scientists are now saying the ice sheet has passed its point of irreversibility, meaning it will not return within a time frame that would enable us to solve our situation.

The loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet is extremely dangerous because it has held back much more massive Antarctic ice fields from plunging into the sea. If this happens, sea levels will quickly rise 10-20 feet (3-6 meters) over a time frame that we will not be able to adapt to without massive financial losses and casualties.

If we are lucky and maintain an average carbon increase of 3 ppm per year and we do not cross more points of no return or tipping points, it will take about 16 to 33 years (about 2032-2050) to reach carbon 450 or 500 ppm. The eventual average global temperature increase range commonly associated with Phase 2’s climate destabilization is about 2.5° to 3.2° Celsius or 4.5° to 5.8° Fahrenheit.

In Phase 2, when more global warming points of no return and tipping points are crossed, the progression before you reach carbon 450 -500 ppm resembles what occurs when one changes from careening down a gradual slope into a steeper one. You are not yet rolling uncontrollably. You still have a tiny bit of time left to think about what is coming before you crash, but the steeper the hill’s incline, the less chance you have of stopping or controlling your momentum. 

Once we cross the carbon 500 ppm level, roughly between 2042-2067 or earlier 2032-2050, ALL ice and ALL glaciers on Earth will go into complete meltdown!

Crossing the carbon 500 ppm threshold has, in fact, happened repeatedly in Earth's geological history. When this has occurred, the sea level inevitably rose to the 70 meters (230 feet) range. At our current annual carbon ppm emission rates, we will reach this catastrophic carbon 500 ppm range. 

If we cross that final battle line by passing the atmospheric carbon level of 500 parts per million (ppm), our average global temperature will soar to about 4°C (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit). At 4°C, a large portion of humanity (hundreds of millions to billions) will die of starvation (or of increased heat's other related consequences) and, governments and society will collapse in many areas of the world between the 35th parallel north and the 35th parallel south.

Even though it will take many centuries for the seas to rise 230 feet, there will still be sea level rise spurts within those centuries where sea level rise by 10 feet or more in just a few decades as it also has done repeatedly in Earth's past. 

Take a moment to visualize the seas eventually rising 230 feet and what this will mean to the generations that follow us. Take a moment to visualize massive crop failures around the world because of the increased heat and the consequent mass suffering of slow starvation if we pass the carbon 500 ppm level. 

In Phase 2, hundreds of millions of people will become climagees and migrate toward the northernmost countries. Hundreds of millions will die. If we are not already in Phase 2, we could reach it as early as 2022-2026 if we continue at 2016’s carbon increase of 4 ppm per year and we cross more tipping points.

The probability of crossing from Phase 2 into Phase 3 is inevitable because of the 11 factors described at the top of this page, Why global warming is irreversible and basically uncontrollable for at least the next 50+ years.

Phase 2 US military DEFCON rating:

DEFCON 3: Armed forces readiness increased above normal levels; Air Force ready to mobilize in 15 minutes.

Phase 2 US Homeland Security risk rating:

Severe risk.

Phase 2 Torino impact rating:

Torino rating 9: The threat is highly certain for unprecedented localized regional and national destruction. Attention by public and both national and international governments to contingency planning is critical if the event is less than 3 decades away.

The hidden danger of Phase 2 is that it is a key transition phase within the scenario. From there on, with each new tipping point and point of no return crossed, the effects collide across climate, human, and biological systems, and we lose all control of our future control even faster and global warming process itself deepens its irreversibility.

When global warming becomes irreversible, it is important to understand that it will remain irreversible beyond any meaningful time frame compared to a human lifespan. It will persist for hundreds or thousands of years. This phase-by-phase loss of meaningful and effective control is also not gradual or linear—it accelerates and steepens as each subsequent phase of the Climageddon Scenario is entered.

CS Phase 3: We continue crossing more global warming tipping points, life becomes unbearable for many areas of the world, and carbon hits 500-550 ppm

Phase 3 is associated with a measurement of carbon parts per million (ppm) in the range of 500-550 ppm. The eventual temperature range increase commonly associated with Phase 3 will be 2.7°-3.5° Celsius or 4.9°-6.3 ° Fahrenheit. In Phase 3, the cost of a single significant global warming-related disaster may average in the $300-billion to $500-billion range.

More global warming tipping points and points of no return are crossed. The average global temperature continues to rise at an even faster rate. In this phase, the global warming, climate, human, and biological systems consequences (shown further below in the illustration called Global Warming and the Climageddon Scenario) continue to increase in frequency and magnitude, but at a significantly steeper and faster rate.

When crossed, the related multiple global warming tipping points of Phase 3 will also collide back and forth into each other, amplifying and multiplying global warming consequences across climate, human, and biological systems, setting the stage for a cascading chain reaction. (See boiling pot illustration above.) This creates a self-reinforcing cycle (positive feedback loop) as tipping points trigger each other, which once again accelerates the scale, severity, and frequency of global warming consequences.

These cascading and colliding global warming tipping points foster the ideal conditions for Phases 4, 5, and 6 of the Climageddon Scenario and lead to the perfect storm of perfect storms. As Phase 3 unfolds, it will eventually destabilize the global economy because of the ever-rising infrastructure repair and replacement costs and the increasing damage to the world’s other climate, human, and biological systems.

These costs will eventually become unbearable for even the economically strongest nations. In Phase 3, the world economy will likely fall into a deep recession. Politically this will destabilize first the weaker nations, then the higher functioning nations. As the climate, the global economy, and functioning nations destabilize, this cascading consequence effect will lead to chaos in the social systems and the smaller subsystems within our individual lives, businesses, and organizations.

In this phase, unpredictable global warming-related disasters and consequences will continue to increase in magnitude, frequency, and scale, but now at an even faster exponential progression.

Billions of people will die and others will become climagees and migrate toward the northernmost countries. Phase 3 should also be seen as the most likely tipping point for the Climageddon Scenario itself when viewed as a whole system and set of interconnected and interrelated systems and processes.

At the current rate, we could be in Phase 3 in 33 years (about 2050) if the average annual increase in carbon dioxide and methane pollution does not rise any higher than the current average of 3 ppm and we do not cross any more points of no return and tipping points in Phase 2 of the Climageddon Scenario. Unfortunately, it is more likely we will hit the predicted higher average global temperatures sooner (2030-2040) due to crossing many colliding tipping points and higher annual carbon levels in the atmosphere.

In this phase, the percentage probability that we will cross many new global warming tipping points could be as high as 60 to 70%. The climate chaos, risk, and loss will rise exponentially. If it has not already begun in late phase 2, phase 3 will also most likely be the beginning of a global financial depression caused in part by the many global warming economic and political consequences.

The probability of crossing from Phase 3 into Phase 4 once Phase 3 has been entered and maintained for a considerable period of time (5-20 years) is inevitable because of the 11 factors described at the top of this page, Why global warming is irreversible and basically uncontrollable for at least the next 50+ years.

Phase 3 US military DEFCON rating:

DEFCON 2: High readiness; armed forces ready to deploy in six hours. 

Phase 3 US Homeland Security risk rating:

Severe risk.

Phase 3 Torino impact rating:

Torino rating 10: The threat is highly certain for unprecedented localized regional, national, and international destruction. The threat is capable of causing global climactic catastrophes that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it. Attention by the public and both national and international governments to contingency planning is mandatory if the event is less than 3 decades away.

CS Phase 4: The cascading tipping point meltdown continues; new crossed tipping points collide into global warming, climate, human, and biological systems; carbon hits 550-600 ppm

Phase 4 is associated with a measurement of carbon parts per million in the atmosphere in the range of 550-600 ppm. The eventual average global temperature range increase associated with irreversible climate destabilization is 4°-4.5° Celsius or 7.2°-8° Fahrenheit.

In Phase 4, the average global temperature continues to rise even faster. In this phase, the global warming consequences continue to increase in scope, frequency and magnitude, and at a steep, exponential rate.

Phase 4 of the Climageddon Scenario expands the perfect storm of perfect storms. Crossed global warming tipping points collide into each other at such a fever pitch that they initiate a cascading global warming system and subsystem tipping point meltdown. This intensifying meltdown of colliding global warming, climate, human system and biological tipping points acts to amplify, accelerate, and multiply all other non-global-warming related challenges such as overpopulation and poverty, pre-existing national and regional conflicts, and our pre-existing economic instabilities.

This tipping point cascading meltdown process across numerous global warming, climate, human and biological systems at one time creates ever more deadly positive feedback loops. This makes almost everything much harder, if not impossible, to resolve in such a chaotic environment as the world deteriorates simultaneously on many system and subsystem fronts.

Phase 4 is an even deeper phase of irreversible climate destabilization. This deeper level occurs when we have moved farther away from the relatively stable dynamic equilibrium of temperature and other key weather conditions we were experiencing in our normal cyclical Ice Ages. Once we reach this stage, we will face crossing from irreversible climate destabilization into extinction-level climate destabilization.

This phase of the Climageddon Scenario defines a new average global temperature range and a set of climate destabilization consequences we might never recover from, or that could take hundreds or even many thousands of years to correct. In Phase 4, if we also hit a keystone tipping point or have a full-on cascading meltdown of many more tipping points, we will cross over into the entrance point to Phase 5. In Phase 4, the cost of a single significant global warming-related disaster may average in the $500-billion to $900-billion range.

We could reach Phase 4 in less than 58 years (about 2074) if the rate at which we are polluting the atmosphere with carbon dioxide and methane does not go up any higher than it is already (about carbon 3 ppm per year) and we do not cross many more additional tipping points in Phase 2 or Phase 3 of the Climageddon Scenario. Unfortunately, once again it is far more likely that we will hit the predicted higher average global temperatures much sooner (2045-2060) due to many more cascading crossed points of no return, tipping points, and the higher carbon levels in the atmosphere.

In late-stage Phase 4, we will be lucky if there are a billion survivors left of our current almost eight billion in the northernmost countries. 

Unfortunately, there is more bad news when we enter phase four. The moment we passed carbon 500 at the end of phase 2, we entered upon a very slippery slope that with high probability will take us rapidly through phase 3 and into phase 4.

The new carbon 600 ppm level that will be reached in phase 4 will raise the average global temperature to very near to 5°C (9 degrees Fahrenheit. ) This will bring about additional massive methane releases from ocean coastal shelves and permafrost.

Because methane is 86 times more potent than carbon as a greenhouse gas, this will again rapidly spike average global temperatures and bring about the extinction of most of humanity and the end of civilization as we know it. Several past mass extinction events possibly linked in this way to ocean coastal shelves suddenly releasing methane clathrate are the Permian-Triassic extinction event and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

When we reach carbon 600 ppm as soon as about 2074 or earlier, we will greatly accelerate the process of crossing more global warming tipping points. This will again spike average global temperature.

At about 5°C and above, a large portion of humanity (7 billion plus,) will die of starvation (or of increased heat's other related consequences) and even the strongest governments and societies will collapse in many areas of the world between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south. As we reach the carbon 500 ppm and carbon 600 ppm levels, we will also cross into the later and most dangerous phases of the Climageddon Scenario end-of-humanity climate model (described in the new Climageddon book.) with all of its related unconscionable consequences.

Take a moment and think about the reality that at carbon 600 ppm as soon as about 2074, we trigger the final processes that will bring about the extinction of 70 to 90% of humanity if not more. At this carbon level, civilization will collapse and the unlucky survivors will enter into an ecological and climate hell and social dark age that will make the survivors wish they were dead.

As if the above was not bad enough, there are several additional factors that need to be considered in the nightmare of global warming we are all facing in the later phases of the Climageddon Scenario:

1. At the minimum, the relative time frame for removing (sequestering) the carbon particles we are currently adding to our atmosphere is centuries to thousands of years. This means that long, long after we stop polluting our atmosphere with fossil fuels, the two carbon 500 and 600 ppm consequence levels discussed above and many of the other 20 most deadly consequences of those actions and global warming will last for many, many generations, and both we and future generations will suffer dearly for our failures to address and resolve this emergency now.

2. Because of the laws of physics concerning adding additional atmospheric greenhouse gases like carbon, global temperature will continue to rise as we continue adding more carbon and other greenhouses gas particles into the atmosphere from our fossil fuel use. Adding the additional three or more carbon ppm per year as we are doing now is based only on the current population. It does not include any additional amounts for the added carbon ppm amounts to compensate for the additional fossil fuel energy use of the human population soaring from 7 billion today to 14 billion people by around 2050 or, that many more people from the developing world will by 2050 move into the middle class demanding the same high carbon fossil fuel use comforts of the developed world! When you add all of the additional carbon that will be burned from these two factors to our current average annual increase of three carbon ppm per year at our current population level, the future looks considerably worse and predicted consequences will arrive even sooner.

3. The steady rise of methane in the atmosphere from new releases of methane from increased fracking, melting permafrost, and leaking natural gas lines. Methane is about 86 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon to increase global warming. There is also a concerted effort by the fracking industry to keep the ominous growing total methane release amounts hidden from the public. When you add in the effects of methane for raising our temperature along with the effects of carbon, we are probably already well above our current carbon 411 ppm.

The probability of crossing from Phase 4 into Phase 5 after being in Phase 4 for a considerable length of time (10-30 or more years) is near inevitable because of the 11 factors described at the top of this page, Why global warming is irreversible and basically uncontrollable for at least the next 50+ years. In general, this is because with each new Climageddon phase entered, society has less and less meaningful control over the collapsing climate, human, and biological systems as more and more tipping points are crossed. These systems also collapse faster and faster with critically fewer resources available to deal with all of their unpredictable new problems.

(Please note: There are numerous climate scientists who believe that crossing carbon 500 ppm is inevitable because of the 11 system failure points covered on the top of this page. They now believe that no matter what we do, we have already missed our window of opportunity and once we have crossed the carbon 500 ppm level, we will not be able to keep from reaching carbon 800 ppm (the final phases of the Climageddon Scenario. Our organization does not hold this to be settled scientific truth. If we did, there would be nothing that we could do to avoid mass extinction. Our reading of the current science indicates that there is still a reasonable but unfortunately, very small chance [about 10%,] that we can prevent crossing the carbon 600 ppm final catastrophic tipping point (using the actions described in part three of the Job One Plan,) or at least, we can slow and lessen the consequences until we do cross the carbon 600 ppm level so more of us and survive longer. While the probability of us preventing crossing the carbon 600 ppm level is very low, the probability that we can at least temporarily slow and lessen the many unavoidable coming consequences is quite good, about 50% or better.)

In Phase 4 we reach the top of the risk, threat, and hazard scales as seen here. These same levels will apply to Phases 5 and 6 as well (though they are essentially inadequate to describe what will happen next).

Phase 4 US military DEFCON rating:

DEFCON 1: Maximum readiness; all forces ready for combat; nuclear war imminent or likely.

Phase 4 US Homeland Security risk rating:

Severe risk.

Phase 4 Torino impact rating:

Torino rating 10: The threat is highly certain for unprecedented localized regional, national, and international destruction. The threat is capable of causing global climatic catastrophes that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it. Attention by the public and both national and international governments to contingency planning is mandatory if the event is less than 3 decades away.

CS Phase 5: Extinction looms for the human race, we hit carbon 600-750+ ppm

The longer Phase 4 continues, the more likely we are to enter Phase 5. In Phase 5, more global warming tipping points and points of no return are crossed in all of the systems previously mentioned. These additional crossed tipping points will further accelerate the colliding into other global warming, climate, human and biological systems, and subsystems, which will trigger more of their tipping points as well. As this meltdown continues, almost all previously mentioned systems will be thrown into utter chaos.

In Phase 5, the average global temperature continues to rise at an even faster rate than previous phases and in a fully exponential manner. In this phase, the global warming consequences continue to increase in frequency and magnitude, also in a fully exponential manner.

This is what is called near-extinction or extinction-level climate destabilization. It is the near to last stage of the Climageddon Scenario.

Environmental collapse, failing economies, and failing nations will begin to collectively collide into each other and into collapsing biological systems, causing unpredictable negative consequences due to the unseen interconnections and interdependencies between climate, human, and biological systems interacting within today's complex and globalized societies. This perfect storm of perfect storms phase has the potential to wreak havoc upon humanity at a level never seen before in human history.

This extinction-level climate destabilization is also defined as the projected potential and eventual extinction of approximately half or more of the biological species on earth and most, if not all, of humanity. Extinction-level climate destabilization will cost billions of lives, possibly the survival of the human species itself.

This extinction-level climate destabilization is associated with the measurement of carbon parts per million in the atmosphere in the range of 600-750+ ppm. The eventual average global temperature increase range associated with Phase 5 is 5°-6° Celsius or about 9°-10.8° Fahrenheit. (This 5°-6° Celsius range is historically significant because scientists have estimated the previous global PETM mass extinction event occurred when the world was only about 5-6° Celsius warmer than it is today.)

There also is a real possibility that extinction-level climate destabilization may never correct or re-balance itself to some new climate equilibrium level, but simply move to Phase 6. And even if the climate were able to correct or re-balance itself, it could take thousands or hundreds of thousands of years. In this phase, the cost of such cascading chains of global warming-related disasters and consequences across all of the interconnected systems is likely to be in the $200-$600 trillion range.

At the current rate, we could be in Phase 5 in less than 83 years (about 2099) if the carbon 3 ppm annual increase does not go up any higher and we do not cross additional tipping points in Phase 2, 3, or 4 of the Climageddon Scenario. Once again, it is far more likely we will hit the predicted higher average global temperatures much sooner (2050-2070) due to crossing many global warming tipping points and the higher average annual carbon ppm levels going into the atmosphere. In Phase 5, there may be a possibility that several hundred million humans will still be able to survive in the poorer growing soils of the northernmost countries.

When all or most of the previously mentioned five phases have occurred, it is the second last step to the end game of the Climageddon Scenario. The probability of entering Phase 6 once Phase 5 has been entered and maintained for a considerable length of time (25-100+ years) is unknown. Currently, there is not enough research to know at what level of carbon ppm we will enter into Phase 6. It could be somewhere near carbon 750 -800 ppm, or it could occur considerably above that level.

Phase 5 US military DEFCON rating: DEFCON 1.

Phase 5 US Homeland Security risk rating: Severe risk.

Phase 5 Torino impact rating: 10

CS Phase 6: We eventually lose our overheated atmosphere into space, we pass beyond carbon 750 ppm, and all life on Earth ends

At the current rate, we could move into Phase 6 at some unknown point as atmospheric carbon pollution continues to rise and as cascading crossed global warming points of no return and tipping points in all climate, human, and biological systems go into a total meltdown as well as an endless positive feedback loop.

In Phase 6, humanity will not have been able to control or slow escalating global warming to create a stabilized climate at any previous phase of the Climageddon Scenario. The average global temperature continues to rise with no end in sight or any way to slow it.

This is what is also known as runaway global warming and leads to the Venus effect. This is where our climate changes permanently in an endless and runaway positive feedback loop.

The Venus effect is what is believed to have happened to the atmosphere that once existed around the planet Venus. At some point, the atmosphere of Venus became so hot that the conditions that kept its water and the atmosphere from being stripped off into space were lost.

In Phase 6, all planetary life dependent upon the atmosphere will be lost. We do not know what level of greenhouse gases have to be present in our atmosphere before Earth could suffer the same loss of water and atmosphere the way Venus did. It is probably many times above our current carbon ppm level.

Because of the previously mentioned factors, it is impossible to predict when humanity could face Phase 6 of the Climageddon Scenario. In this phase, the costs will be incalculable in terms of human life, suffering, and property. It will cost us everything we know and love.

Phase 6 US military DEFCON rating: DEFCON 1.

Phase 6 US Homeland Security risk rating: Severe risk.

Phase 6 Torino impact rating: 10

Overviewing Climageddon Scenario phase temperatures

There was a lot of information presented in the above description of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario. To help make key areas of it easier to remember and use for future planning, the following illustrated sections and charts have been provided.

The table below illustrates the temperature increases associated with each of the 6 phases. All the temperatures are increases over the average global temperature just before the Industrial Revolution.

Climageddon_Scenario_Phases.png

Overviewing mass extinction events in a historical perspective

The possibility of a massive extinction due to entering the later phases of the Climageddon Scenario should also be seen within the context of the history of extinction events and how the species population living at the time died off in each one of these events. The following illustration shows the five known previous mass extinction events.

Mass_Extinctions_Climageddon_Scenarie.png

To the left in the illustration above are projections for future species losses (including humanity) if we reach the later phases of the Climageddon Scenario. Some scientists are already calling the 21st century the beginning of the Sixth Great Extinction because of the high level of species die-offs already occurring.

Overviewing the Climageddon Scenario carbon levels and rising temperatures by phase

Chapter_6_Climageddon_Scenario_Phases.png

Overviewing the Climageddon Scenario financial costs

The following illustration shows how total related costs will rise dramatically at each Scenario phase for single-incident global warming disasters. In Phases 5 and 6, you will notice that the financial costs increase radically. In Phases 5 and 6, there will be many related and interconnected disasters occurring simultaneously all over the world, which collectively cause the skyrocketing amounts.

Climageddon Costs 3.png

Overviewing the Climageddon Scenario as a complex adaptive system

At a meta-systemic level, the full-page illustration called Global Warming and the Climageddon Scenario further below makes it easier to visualize many of the Climageddon Scenario cross-system factors such as global warming consequences and tipping points in climate, human, and biological systems interacting with each other in all possible directions toward the cascading meltdown of the later Climageddon Scenario phases.

If it were possible to draw every complex interaction of the climate system within the three large boxes in the full-page illustration farther below, it would look much like a plate of tangled spaghetti noodles, slithering every possible way between each of the items within each box and between each larger horizontal box.

Climageddon_Scenario_Interactions.png

Many of the factors listed within each horizontal box in the illustration below not only react and collide amongst themselves, but each of the three large horizontal boxes also collectively interacts with and collides into the other large horizontal boxes as collections of consequences and tipping points in highly unpredictable, linear, and nonlinear ways.

Breaking down the three levels of consequence and tipping point interactions which create the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario.

The interactions of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario are incredibly complex. In order to help the reader cut through this complexity, we have provided the following three illustrations.

When you are reading the three levels of interaction behind the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario, imagine you are looking at the assembly of all of the necessary elements to construct level by level and piece by piece, the perfect storm of perfect storms! Furthermore, unless we make radical changes immediately, the perfect storm of global warming consequences and tipping points interacting on all of the three levels illustrated in this section will create a cascading collective meltdown of continuous catastrophes, which will eventually crash economic markets, collapse governments and bring civilization as we know it today to a nearly complete end.

Illustration #1 of the Climageddon Scenario: Global Warming Consequences

In illustration one below, many things are happening simultaneously. First, it shows an overview of the key consequences of escalating global warming as global warming intensifies. Next, through the dotted lines interconnecting all of the listed consequences, it draws attention to the important fact that these consequences do not operate separately from each other. They interact!

In most cases, when any one of these global warming consequences (i.e. flooding, wildfires, drought, sea level rise due to melting sea ice and glaciers etc.) increases in frequency, severity, or scale, they begin interacting with one or more of the other consequences, making them more frequent, severe, and larger in scale as these consequences interact between themselves in positive feedback loops.

Now imagine that as global warming continues to intensify, these collective consequences increase once again to an even higher level of frequency, severity, and scale. Once again these consequences will begin interacting with more and more of the other consequences making the rest of the consequences intensify and occur more frequently, be more severe and also cover larger areas. In other words, when one escalates, it tends to trigger other consequences to do the same. Eventually, so many of them will be interacting in a positive feedback loop that we will be facing ecological and climate chaos. (For a detailed description of each of the consequences in the illustration above, click here.)

Illustration #2 of the Climageddon Scenario: Crossed Biological, Geological and Climate Tipping Points

In illustration two, the key biological, geological and climate tipping points of escalating global warming are listed. The dotted and interconnecting lines through all these tipping points graphically show that they do not stand alone or operate separately from each other. For instance, ocean heating (E) is caused by increased atmospheric temperature. Enough ocean heating triggers a plankton dying tipping point and then increased melting sea ice, methane releases from the ocean bottom and water vapor increases to name only a few of its interactions with other tipping points.  

When any one of these global warming tipping points are crossed, they can, and usually do cross over and begin interacting with one or more of the other tipping points, making those other tipping points more likely to cross their own internal tipping points in a positive feedback loop of tipping points feeding and interacting off of and with each other.

Now imagine as global warming continues to intensify not just one or two of these tipping points will be crossed, but many of them will be crossed. As these tipping points begin interacting and collapsing into each other, they literally ensure that many more tipping points will be crossed! (For a detailed description of each of the tipping points in the illustration above, click here.)

Illustration #3 of the Climageddon Scenario: Human System Tipping Points

Illustration three shows the key human system tipping points that will be dramatically affected as more global warming consequences occur and intensify and, as more global warming tipping points are crossed in biological, geological and climate systems.

The arrowed lines between the four key human system tipping points below show that these tipping points involved in human systems also do not stand alone or operate separately from each other or from the biological, geological or climate tipping points listed in illustration 2 above. Unfortunately, these human system tipping points also interact in deadly positive feedback loops.

As global warming continues to intensify, so will the likelihood of war, political financial and social collapse. When too many human system tipping points have been crossed, we will face levels of system failure and collapse unlike anything seen in history.

The above is how the perfect storm of perfect storms known as the Climageddon Scenario unfolds. When you begin viewing the Climageddon Scenario model as an integrated climate, human, and biological super system, as well as seeing it from a meta-systemic perspective, you will also discover:

  1. new critical relationships between climate, human, biological and geological systems and processes,
  2. new qualifying and conditioning climate, human, biological and geological contexts, and finally,
  3. new phase-by-phase catastrophic interactions magnifying the transformations of interconnected and interdependent climate, human, biological and geological system consequences and tipping points that will dramatically worsen our lives.

What people do not easily grasp about the Climageddon Scenario is, that it is not just how bad the individual effects of the various consequences and tipping points will be. It is not even how bad the collective and/or cumulative effects of the various consequences and tipping points will be.

What they do not easily realize is that --- it is the total synergetic effect, which is far more than the sum of global warming's consequence or tipping point component parts, which creates a cascading consequence and tipping point meltdown and multiplies the threat and risk levels to such a point that once understood, no rational person would ever allow the Climageddon Scenario to unfold past the latter part of phase 1.

The Climageddon Scenario phase boundaries

It is best to think about the phases of the Climageddon Scenario as sequential stages of a logical analytical model and description of what will happen phase-by-phase as global warming unfolds and grows progressively worse. But, the Climageddon Scenario is not a rigid model cast in stone.

The 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario are not separated by rigid carbon ppm levels. They are fluid. The ppm demarcation levels may evolve up or down as new research is released. For example, Phase 2 could begin as early as carbon 425 ppm, as late as carbon 475 ppm;, within Phase 2 more tipping points and points of no return could be crossed sooner or later than described previously.

Other critical Climageddon Scenario risk factors: 3 wildcards

There are additional critical risk variables or wildcards to consider in relating to how fast the unfolding Climageddon Scenario will be. A wild card is another kind of unpredictable positive or negative factor that can drastically influence the outcome of a situation. The following negative global warming wildcards can radically spike average global temperatures and/or radically shorten or lengthen the time frames for the predicted temperatures of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario.

Wildcard 1: Atmospheric carbon ppm rises faster than its current average pace of about 3 ppm per year

In this wild card, we are unable to hold to the already dangerously high pace of adding 3 ppm of carbon per year. This causes the average global temperature to increase faster than is currently predicted in the Climageddon Scenario phases. This wildcard alone could significantly change an individual, business, or nation’s long-term planning or their emergency preparedness schedules.

In the graph below, you can see our current atmospheric carbon ppm levels are not rising in a simple linear gradual line, but on a steepening exponential curve. This steep carbon ppm curve also implies that temperatures will not rise gradually.

keeling-curve-monthly-0475.jpg

Due to the inertia factor in human systems as well as the well-financed fossil fuel industry counter forces, it is highly likely we will continue for some time to fail to pass laws that effectively limit atmospheric pollution from fossil fuel use. This strongly implies that with our skyrocketing global population, and with as many as a billion or more individuals coming into the middle class with higher energy needs, atmospheric fossil fuel levels and pollution will steadily and dramatically increase for the foreseeable future.

Therefore, it is also not unreasonable to project we will reach the new levels of 4, 5, or even 6 carbon ppm average increases per year within as little as 10-30 years. When looking at the higher carbon ppm calculations below, keep in mind that all projections are for temperatures above pre-industrial levels. It is also important to know that once carbon reaches the atmosphere, 75% of that carbon will not disappear for thousands of years. The other 25% stays forever. This means that we will be living with radically higher average global temperature ranges for a long, long time even after we finally get serious about ending the global warming emergency

If the annual average carbon increases of only 4, 5, or 6 ppm happen, and everything goes perfectly, and we do not cross more points of no return and global warming tipping points, the following is an approximation of what the accelerated time frames and temperatures would look like. Of course, if any of the annual carbon increases of 4, 5, or 6 ppm occur earlier than these projections or we cross more points of no return and tipping points, it will get much warmer much faster. Please note: None of the 3 carbon ppm variation graphs below have included any calculations for crossing tipping points.

If we stay at a carbon 4 ppm increase per year (like we did in 2016), we would reach:

  • carbon 450 (an increase of 2.2°-2.7° Celsius or 4°-4.9° Fahrenheit) in about 15 years (2031). (This is the critical transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2 in the Climageddon Scenario, as well as the strong probability of crossing more global warming, climate, human, and biological system tipping points.)
  • carbon 500 ppm (an increase of 2.5°-3.2° Celsius, or about 4.5°-5.7° Fahrenheit) in about 26 years (2042). (Phase 2).
  • carbon 550 (an increase of 2.7°-3.5° Celsius, or 4.9°-6.3° Fahrenheit) in about 38 years (2054). (Phase 3).

Average_Carbon.png

  • carbon 600 (an increase of 4°-4.5° Celsius, or 7.2°-8° Fahrenheit) in about 51 years (2067). (Phase 4).
  • carbon 650-750 (an increase of 5°-6° Celsius, or 9°-10.8°+ Fahrenheit) in about 89 years (2105). (Phase 5).

If we increase carbon at 4 ppm per year at 2026 and then go to a carbon increase of 5 ppm per year by the year 2036, we would reach:

  • carbon 450 (an increase of 2.2°-2.7° degrees Celsius or 4°-4.9° Fahrenheit) in about 15 years (2031).  (This is the critical transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2 in the Climageddon Scenario, as well as the strong probability of crossing more global warming, climate, human, and biological system tipping points.)
  • carbon 500 ppm (an increase of 2.5°-3.2° Celsius or 4.5°-5.7°° Fahrenheit) in about 25 years (2041). (Phase 2).
  • carbon 550 (an increase of 2.7°-3.5° Celsius or 4.9° to 6.3° Fahrenheit) in about 35 years (2051). (Phase 3).

Avg._Carbon_5.png

  • carbon 600 (an increase of 4°-4.5° Celsius or 7.2°-8° Fahrenheit) in about 45 years (2061). (Phase 4).
  • carbon 650-750 (an increase of 5°-6° Celsius, or 9°-10.8° Fahrenheit) in about 75 years (2091). (Phase 5).

If we increase carbon at 4 ppm per year starting in 2026, then go to a carbon increase 5 ppm per year in the year 2036, and finally reach carbon increase of 6 ppm per year by the year 2046, we would reach:

  • carbon 450 (an increase of 2.2°-2.7° Celsius or 4°-4.9° Fahrenheit) in about 15 years (2031). (This is the critical transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2 in the Climageddon Scenario, as well as the strong probability of crossing more global warming, climate, human, and biological system tipping points.)
  • carbon 500 ppm (an increase of 2.5°-3.2° Celsius or 4.5°-5.7° Fahrenheit) in about 25 years (2041). (Phase 2).

Avg._Carbon_6.png

  • carbon 550 (an increase of 2.7°-3.5° Celsius or 4.9°-6.3° Fahrenheit) in about 35 years (2051.) (Phase 3).

  • carbon 600 (an increase of 4°-4.5° Celsius or about 7.2°-8° Fahrenheit) in about 45 years (2061). (Phase 4)

  • carbon 650-750 (an increase of 5°-6° Celsius or 9°-10.8° Fahrenheit) in about 54 years (2070). (Phase 5).

Wildcard 2: Crossed global warming tipping points can unexpectedly spike up global temperatures and accelerate timetables

As we cross more global warming tipping points, there is currently no method of precisely calculating either how suddenly or how high average global temperatures might spike beyond our current temperature increases. What we do know is that crossing almost any global warming tipping point will eventually raise the average global temperature and presents the probability of suddenly and unpredictably spiking up average global temperatures.

How long it will take to get to a new and significantly higher average global temperature level after crossing a tipping point is unknown, but is almost certainly going to occur sooner than what we are currently preparing for. This high level of unpredictability will make the suddenly occurring and radical adjustments that will be needed nearly impossible for all but those with nearly unlimited resources

Additionally, not all tipping points are alike in impact. Once a keystone global warming tipping point is crossed, many other global warming tipping points can also begin rapidly and simultaneously collapsing into their own respective tipping points. If we cross a keystone tipping point, every current projected timeframe relating to global warming consequences and the Climageddon Scenario will rapidly change for the worse. Consequences predicted to be many decades away could be upon us in a decade or two—or even sooner.

Wildcard 3: The methane time bomb

What could eventually become the determinant wild card in the Climageddon Scenario is the growing role of methane pollution in our atmosphere. Even though methane lasts (3 years to decades) in the atmosphere and far less time than carbon, methane is 20 to 100 times more potent than carbon in producing increased heat by way of the greenhouse gas effect.

Increasing methane pollution is a hidden global warming crisis waiting to happen. The only way that increasing atmospheric methane pollution is indirectly measured is by what's called the carbon equivalent score, or CE score. The CE score includes other greenhouse gases besides methane, so we can never be quite certain just how much methane is contributing to the overall CE score.

Currently, the carbon dioxide ppm-only score is about 407, but our carbon equivalent (CE) score is around 485 CE ppm. As you can see, with the higher 485 CE ppm measurement, carbon dioxide ppm is not the only measurement to be concerned about. One could easily wonder if this seldom seen or publicly discussed higher carbon CE score is also part of the reason temperatures are rising so much higher and faster than predicted by those in authority.

Some research suggests that total atmospheric methane pollution from all its sources may be responsible for up to 30% of all global warming. The expansion of methane energy generation is being extolled by the fossil fuel industry as a safer, less polluting, less costly alternative to oil and coal energy generation. The U.S. and other countries with abundant methane have gone on huge methane fracking energy generation binges, supplying more and more of their energy needs through this abundant fossil fuel that is extremely dangerous to our already overheating atmosphere

As research continues to show how much methane is leaking from the fracking process as well as methane leaking in the distribution from the wellhead to the end user, the data looks bad for the future. As new studies come out that aren’t directly or indirectly funded by the fossil fuel industry, it shows we appear to have significantly underestimated how much methane is leaking into the atmosphere from both the ongoing melting of the tundra permafrost (which is rapidly accelerating as well) and the methane release from fracking. (Click here[4] to see more about underestimated methane pollution.) This additional unknown amount of leaked methane could be the ultimate Climageddon Scenario wild card and the last straw because:

  1. Initial studies indicate we are seriously underestimating the total amount of methane now leaking into the global atmosphere from fracking.

  2. The underestimated amount of total leaked methane might turn out to be just enough additional heat leverage (when it exercises its 20 to 100 times greater heat producing greenhouse gas effect) to spike average global temperature fast enough and high enough to trigger more global warming tipping points or a keystone tipping point, pushing us quickly from Phase 2 to 3 of the Climageddon Scenario.

  3. This fracking-related heat leverage is in addition to any other increases in methane going into the atmosphere from tundra permafrost thaw or big agribusiness. And finally because

  4. All of the increased methane releases sit on top of the already existing prior and escalating atmospheric carbon pollution.

This impending methane time bomb can get much worse. Methane going into the atmosphere from any and all sources (fracking, methane leaks, melting permafrost, and big agribusiness) warms the oceans even more. Starting around 5°C, it will begin to thaw and release gigatons of frozen methane hydrate crystals trapped along the continental shelves of our oceans. Ironically, if the additional leaking methane produced by today’s fracking boom becomes the “straw that breaks the camel’s back,” then our short-sighted drive for cheaper, easier-to-reach energy will become our ultimate undoing

Other risk factors within the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario and its wild cards

Seeing the risk probabilities and wildcard risk factors of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario as a collection or whole is useful in evaluating what the previously mentioned phase-by-phase threat levels could mean for your future. The risk probabilities and wildcard risk factors for the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario are:

  1. There is a 100% certainty we are already in Phase 1 of the Climageddon Scenario and are in a state of climate destabilization that will be irreversible within anything close to human time frames.

  2. Climatologist Michael Mann believes we currently have a 10% probability of crossing more global warming system tipping points as we have already crossed numerous tipping points in the Arctic regions.

  3. At carbon 407 ppm now, we are quickly moving toward Phase 2 of the Climageddon Scenario (carbon 450 ppm) which could potentially begin as early as carbon 425 ppm. If we reach Phase 2, tumbling into Phase 3 is more likely than not (greater than a 50% probability) because of tipping point crossing momentum, our ever-diminishing control over global warming processes, and the total carbon added within 6-10 years to the atmosphere.

  4. There is a very high probability we will soon be averaging an increase in carbon of 4 ppm per year and not carbon 3 ppm as we were previously doing before 2015. From 2015-2016, according to measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, we came close to that 4 ppm mark.

  5. There is also a possibility we may have already unknowingly crossed more points of no return and  “baked in” irreversible global warming as well as the mid to later stages of the Climageddon Scenario.

  6. There is a very high probability we will cross more points of no return and global warming tipping points, but we will not be able to accurately predict when, how much, or how fast they will increase average global temperature.

  7. If we reach Phase 3, tumbling into Phase 4 is highly likely (probability greater than 65%) due to both tipping point momentum and our diminishing control.

  8. The probability that we have seriously underestimated the total global warming effect of fracking for methane and the effects of the other key methane pollution sources is high.

  9. Somewhere in late Phase 3 or early Phase 4, there is a good probability we will cross a keystone tipping point for the Climageddon Scenario itself. This is where crossing global warming, climate, human, and biological system tipping points begins a self-reinforcing endless positive feedback loop.

  10. The probability of reaching the mid-to-later Climageddon Scenario Phases 3-5 is also high because of human system inertia and momentum factors.

  11. If we reach Phase 4, tumbling into Phase 5 is very likely (a probability greater than 85%) because of both growing tipping point momentum and our diminishing control.

  12. Recent research from 2015 has estimated we now have a 10% chance of reaching an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit)—which is Phase 5 of the Climageddon Scenario. Other research in a new book called Climate Shock estimates the current risk of reaching 6° Celsius may be as high as 30%. If we do not act immediately as described in Part 2, the materials within the book you are reading suggest the risk of reaching 6° Celsius could be considerably higher than the 30% suggested by the authors of Climate Shock.

  13. Because of insufficient research on prior temperatures and processes of the Venus effect (where the atmosphere of Venus was stripped off because of rising temperatures), it is impossible at this time to assign a risk probability to Phase 6 of the Climageddon Scenario, other than to say that if we reach Phase 5 and our temperature keeps going up without pause, we are at a high risk of entering Phase 6.

If or when we reach 4°-6° Celsius (7.2°-10.8° Fahrenheit) of average global temperature increase, we will face a threat comparable in scope, scale, and severity to a global nuclear war.  So what does this dire comparison imply?

It asks us to consider how we should be handling the escalated global warming risk if the nations of the world would not allow even a 1 percent risk level for global thermonuclear war to remain unmanaged. How can we continue to allow even a 10% risk level of crossing global warming tipping points when it can directly lead to irreversible global warming, 4°-6° Celsius average global temperature increases, and the eventual extinction of humanity?

Overviewing the estimated time frames and consequence intensity of the Climageddon Scenario

Chapter_6_Climageddon_Scenario_Timetable.png

In the above-estimated timetable, it is important to keep in mind that these estimates are based on our current path of continuing to cross more and more climate, human and biological system tipping points which have not been previously factored into currently accepted global warming consequence timetables by authorities such as the IPCC.

The Climageddon Scenario will multiply the many threats we face through its endless chain of cascading consequences and crossed tipping points, and it will also expose and attack the weaknesses in every climate, human, and biological system directly or indirectly connected. This is also why the Climageddon Scenario is today's most imminent security threat, comparable only to the threat of thermonuclear war and currently more urgent due to the absence of adequate management and preventive measures.

Chapter_6_Climageddon_Scenario_Risk_Levels.png

In the above illustration, you will notice that the mid-to-later phases of the Climageddon Scenario soon reach the highest levels of the 3 previously mentioned risk scales.

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There may be undiscovered positive wild cards that could help significantly slow, lessen, and eventually end global warming

The climate future is uncertain and full of both unpredictable negative and positive wild cards. We must remain open to exploring all possible natural decarbonization practices. We also need to be open to appropriate technological climate restabilization procedures, as well as all new green energy generation technologies that could be positive wild cards for our global warming future.

Technology’s greatest hope for helping to resolve this emergency lies mainly in its ability to more efficiently tap into the abundant sources of clean, green energy all around us (solar, wind, geothermal, etc). Right now, solar panel efficiency is doubling about every three years while at the same time, solar panel cost is rapidly and dramatically dropping.

This, coupled with new technologies for storage batteries, is helping us to resolve green energy battery storage and cost problems that could have significantly slowed our transition away from fossil fuel energy generation. The entrepreneur Elon Musk has stated that with 100 more new battery factories like his new Tesla Giga Factory, green energy generation should have all the battery storage capacity it needs to be able to meet all of the world’s energy needs.

There also could be a survival-critical point where we will have to be open to the possibilities of any existing or new technology, even if that technology seems improbable or far-fetched. Stating that we may have to use wise and appropriate technology solutions does not negate the serious warnings about an overly-optimistic or distorted over-reliance on new technology solutions as the main way we end the global warming emergency without first and also changing our polluting and destructive fossil fuel-consuming ways.

Among many "new technology" possibilities, we may even have to use distasteful or disruptive stopgap measures on the way to restabilizing the climate, provided that we have a high certainty these temporary measures will not have even worse side effects! For example, fourth generation nuclear breeder reactors, if perfected, are supposed to use and burn the spent existing nuclear waste now being stored at great expense and risk. They will turn stored nuclear waste into a byproduct with a radioactive half-life of just 300 years instead of the average ~10,000 years for many kinds of existing nuclear reactor waste.

Summary

  • In Phase 2 of the Climageddon Scenario, with each new tipping point and point of no return crossed, we progressively lose more and more control over the global warming emergency.

  • It is not only unconscionable, it is insane to allow the conditions of Phase 2 of the Climageddon Scenario to persist one second longer than is necessary. These conditions must be reversed.

  • In Phase 3 of the Climageddon Scenario, should we be unfortunate enough to enter it, we are at the beginning of the perfect storm of perfect storms. Here, unpredictable and colliding crossed tipping points cascade into and within climate, human, and biological systems, creating unmanageable chaos.
  • Phase 3 of the Climageddon Scenario is also like entering a race car with no driver and its accelerator pedal pressed to the floor. We rapidly become passive rear seat passengers, racing faster and faster toward the cliffs of oblivion.
  • Endless global warming catastrophes will find and multiply weaknesses within the world's political, economic, social, and ecological systems. Long before we reach the last phases of the Climageddon Scenario, the world will face global chaos.
  • Our current level of global warming places us at the edge of a disastrous chain reaction: crossing more tipping points will lead eventually to crossing keystone tipping points, then irreversible global warming, and finally Phases 4 and 5 of the Climageddon Scenario.
  • Once carbon reaches the atmosphere, 75% of that carbon will not disappear for thousands of years. The other 25% stays forever. This means that even after we finally get serious about ending the global warming emergency, we will be living with radically higher average global temperature ranges for a long, long time.
  • Endgame global warming consequences will rapidly propagate through climate, human, and biological systems in the later phases (4-6) of the Climageddon Scenario.
  • Any global warming wild card can significantly increase the average global temperature and radically shorten the time frames for the predicted temperatures increases of the Climageddon Scenario to occur.
  • If we don't work together successfully to resolve the global warming emergency, we may experience a second great evolutionary bottleneck and die off to a few thousand remaining mating pairs. This means that most of us living today may witness, in as little as 30 years, the greatest mass die-off in human history.
  • The Climageddon Scenario later phases will kill us all far faster and more efficiently than we ever have been able to kill each other. It ultimately leads us into the Great Culling of humanity.
  • The Climageddon Scenario is the ultimate unbearable truth of the 21st century.

Click here for what you can do to get prepared for the coming global warming catastrophes. 

Click here to learn more about our current state of irreversible global warming. 

All of the preceding, and far more information about the escalating warming emergency can be found in the Climageddon book. Get your free copy now! 

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Notes:

[1] Other research estimates our current average global temperature is between 1.2°-1.5° Celsius (2.2°-2.7° Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels.

[2] David Spratt. "Climate Reality Check." Breakthrough - National Centre for Climate Restoration. March 2016. http://media.wix.com/ugd/148cb0_4868352168ba49d89358a8a01bc5f80f.pdf

[3] Show.earth. "Keeling Curve Monthly CO2 Widget." ProOxygen. Accessed January 17, 2017 from https://www.show.earth/kc-monthly-co2-widget

[4] Phil Mckenna. "Environmental group alleges scientific fraud in disputed methane studies." InsideClimate News. June 9, 2016. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09062016/environmental-alleges-scientific-fraud-disputed-methane-studies-nc-warn-david-allen-EDF


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  • Lawrence Wollershein
    commented 2018-04-13 16:32:02 -0700
    Hi David,

    Thanks for your kind words about my book. If you get a chance, would you review it at Amazon. All you have to do is search the book title and follow the instructions and it will give you an opportunity to write a review.

    Also regarding your comments I will look up my original research regarding page 156 hopefully in the next week or two and then post any corrections as needed at this location: http://www.joboneforhumanity.org/climageddon_book_support_navigation_center

    And, I will notify you by private mail if a correction update is necessary.

    Best,

    Lawrence
  • David de Cleene
    commented 2018-04-12 14:19:10 -0700
    Hi,
    First of all I would like to congratulate you on your book. At last we have a person with the critical level of morality to see and tell the truth. I’ve bought your book and read it all and was relieved to finally read a book that could understand the science and the politics, and report the true state of emergency we’re in regarding climate change.

    I would like to fact check one thing though. On page 156 you have a graph detailing the mass extinctions of the past and the Climageddon scenario. It shows that there have been a few times that the percentage of species extinction has reached over 75% historically, with the End-Permian extinction close to 95%. However, all my research holds the consensus that these extinction rates were nearly half this, being around 40% with the End-Permian extinction around 50%. Would you please tell me where or how you got your information regarding this graph. Many thanks and keep up the great work. Every person has a purpose!