Climageddon Scenario Phases 2-6
(To see Climageddon Scenario Phase 1, click here. Please note that several sections below are repeated or similar to sections in earlier Climageddon phases either for necessary emphasis or because this page will be viewed separately in internet searches.)
The following contains members-only global warming extinction warning signs, countdown timetables, and consequence information that was difficult and expensive for us to acquire. Only logged in members can see this page.
The contents of this page are well beyond what was contained in the Amazon well-reviewed new Climageddon book. This page also completes the general public introduction to the Climageddon Scenario found on this page of our non-member public website.
Before you read this page, we strongly recommend that you have also reviewed the full Climageddon Scenario public introduction to this page found here. It is an important and essential introduction to this members-only page that contains much not on this page and that helps make the following much clearer!
The 5 other phases of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown
Consider each consequence listed within the following five additional Climageddon phases as an increasing louder warning signal signaling the next step and level in our countdown to mass extinction. Treat these unfolding warning signs and timetables as deadlines for your survival timeframe planning!
With each of the 5 additional phases described below human suffering and death as well as desperation migration and great financial loss will not increase gradually but along a rapidly rising exponential curve. Also, please keep in mind that as each phase occurs and we cross more tipping points, our ability to manage and control or prevent the subsequent phase unfolding drops drastically.
This phase-by-phase ever-increasing loss of effective control helps to facilitate an ever-increasing chain reaction of more and more consequences and more and more crossed tipping points occurring faster and faster, leading eventually to the full extinction of humanity event described in detail in Phases 5 and 6 further below.
Assuming you have read the essential information on the major global warming consequences and tipping points you are properly prepared to explore the next 5 phases of the Climageddon Scenario described below to discover what is the "perfect storm of perfect storms."
And finally, never forget that if we reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by plus or minus 5 percent, we will avoid the worst consequences of the Climageddon Scenario and mass extinction! Life over the millennia has always found a way to solve its previous mass extinction challenges!
Climageddon Scenario Phase 2, beginning as soon as 2032-2050:
(Please note: Phase 1 of the Climageddon Scenario is located on this public access page.)
We have crossed significant points of no return, crossed the climate cliff, and more dangerous tipping points. Temperatures rise more and faster. Carbon hits 450-500 ppm
The end of Phase 1 leading into the beginning of Phase 2 is the beginning of irreversible climate destabilization lasting for centuries to thousands of years. It is most often associated with a measurement of atmospheric carbon in the range of about 425-450 ppm. Phase 2 can begin as early as carbon 425 ppm if we cross more tipping points between carbon 425-450 ppm.
Overall, when we reach this phase, things will go from bad to considerably worse at a much faster pace.
In Phase 2, if the carbon ppm increase averages only around 3 ppm per year, the average global temperature rises faster and in a less gradual (i.e., less linear) manner. In Phase 2, the global warming consequences continue to increase in severity, scale, and frequency, but also in a faster manner. It is important to appreciate the accelerating effect of global warming consequence processes and relationships interacting with each other as the CS phases unfold. As global warming continues, its consequences will not just become more frequent; they will also keep expanding and intensifying in the other dimensions of scale and severity.
Phase 2 locks in the process of irreversible climate destabilization for centuries to thousands of years. It is considered irreversible because the time scale to repair the damage goes far, far beyond human lifespans.
In this phase, the cost of a single instance, global warming-related disaster may average in the $100-$300 billion range.
Because of melting ice and permafrost and crossed tipping points in the Arctic, at the beginning of Phase 2 we are highly likely to cross more points of no return and tipping points in climate human and biological systems. The evidence we could soon enter Phase 2 is already found in the North and South polar regions as they are warming at about twice the speed as the rest of the world.
Rapidly increasing temperatures and changing polar currents have already demonstrated major effects on the weather all over the world. The significantly higher temperature range in the polar regions is a likely “hot spot” to trigger crossing many known and unknown points of no return in these regions.
In addition to our rapidly rising carbon ppm level, another powerful indicator that we are rapidly approaching Phase 2 is the melting and breaking off of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Scientists are now saying the ice sheet has passed its point of irreversibility, meaning it will not return within a time frame that would enable us to solve our situation.
The loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet is extremely dangerous because it has held back much more massive Antarctic ice fields from plunging into the sea. If this happens, sea levels will quickly rise 10-20 feet (3-6 meters) over a time frame that we will not be able to adapt to without massive financial losses and casualties.
If we are lucky and maintain an average carbon increase of 3 ppm per year and we do not cross more points of no return or tipping points, it will take about 16 to 33 years (about 2032-2050) to reach carbon 450 or 500 ppm. The eventual average global temperature increase range commonly associated with Phase 2’s climate destabilization is about 2.5° to 3.2° Celsius or 4.5° to 5.8° Fahrenheit. Please also note that phase 2 could also end as early as 2026 if fossil fuel burning goes radically up and/or we cross many more additional key global warming tipping points, but that is more unlikely.
In Phase 2, when more global warming points of no return and tipping points are crossed, the progression before you reach carbon 450 -500 ppm resembles what occurs when one changes from careening down a gradual slope into a steeper one. You are not yet rolling uncontrollably. You still have a tiny bit of time left to think about what is coming before you crash, but the steeper the hill’s incline, the less chance you have of stopping or controlling your momentum.
Once we cross the carbon 500 ppm level, roughly between 2042-2067 or as early as 2032-2050, ALL ice and ALL glaciers on Earth will begin the process of a complete meltdown! If ice shelves keep sliding off the land that they are currently sitting on into the oceans at faster and faster rates, cities like San Francisco could very well experience as much as a 10 foot 10-sea level rise sometime during this phase and period.
Crossing the carbon 500 ppm threshold has, in fact, happened repeatedly in Earth's geological history. When this has occurred, the sea level inevitably rose to the 70 meters (230 feet) range. At our current annual carbon ppm emission rates, we will reach this catastrophic carbon 500 ppm range without crossing any additional tipping points as early as 2032-2050.
If we cross that battle line and climate cliff bypassing the atmospheric carbon level of 500 parts per million (ppm), our average global temperature will soar to about 4°C (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit). At 4°C, a large portion of humanity (hundreds of millions) will begin to die of starvation (or of increased heat's other related consequences) and, many governments and societies will collapse in many areas of the world between the 35th parallel north and the 35th parallel south.
Even though it will take many centuries for the seas to rise 230 feet, there will still be sea level rise spurts within those centuries where sea level rise by 10 feet or more in just a few decades as it also has done repeatedly in Earth's past.
Take a moment to visualize the seas eventually rising 230 feet and what this will mean to the generations that follow us. Take a moment to visualize massive crop failures around the world because of the increased heat and the consequent mass suffering of slow starvation if we pass the carbon 500 ppm level (an average global temperature increase of 4°C [7.2 degrees Fahrenheit]).
In the later Phase 2, tens of millions of people will become climagees and migrate toward the northernmost countries. Hundreds of millions worldwide will die. We could reach the beginning of phase 2 as early as 2022-2026 if we continue at 2016’s carbon increase of 3-4 ppm per year and we cross more tipping points.
The probability of crossing from Phase 2 into Phase 3 is nearly inevitable because of the many reasons and factors described at the top of the following linked page, IS global warming uncontrollable for at least the next 30-50+ years.
We will no ability to control global warming in any way once it hits carbon 500 ppm.
The warning signs of phase 2 from 2032-2050
The following listing of positive feedback loops, points of no return, tipping points, consequences, and interactions with our other current global challenges should be considered as good warning signs we are both in phase 2 or moving rapidly through phase 2 into phase 3. Watch for information about these consequences and events occurring in the news.
Particularly watch to see if they're being described as worse than before or as breaking all previous records. Look carefully at what the consequence pattern and trend is moving toward. These are the best objective accelerating warning signs that individuals can see for themselves and that will motivate thoughtful individuals to act appropriately.
Phase 2: The most probable positive feedback loops, points of no return, and tipping points to occur or be crossed from 2032-2050 in order of priority are as follows:
Increased albedo from reduced snow cover and melting Arctic ice increasing the earth's heat, increased sea ice, and glacier melt resulting in additional sea-level rise, increased atmospheric water vapor increases resulting in more extreme weather, increased permafrost and tundra heating releasing more methane and which results in more heat.
Faster melting permafrost in tundra areas increasingly causes the probability of local and possibly regional pandemics caused by ancient viruses and bacteria being released from the permafrost.
From the above list of tipping points, shrinking sea ice will cause massive ice shelves in Antarctica and Greenland (that are held in place by the surrounding sea ice,) to quickly slide off the land they sit on and into the sea. This could be one of the two biggest sudden shocker tipping points that hit us far harder than we are planning for regarding our rising sea level.
This is because melting sea ice (icebergs) already floating in the sea does not raise sea level. But on the other hand, massive ice shelves currently sitting on land in Antarctica and Greenland which then slides into the sea can raise sea levels far faster as well as far more than we are prepared for.
Several times in earth's history massive ice shelves have quickly slid off Greenland because the melted floating sea ice which had previously buttressed it up had melted. This sudden sliding of the ice shelf into the sea raised sea level by as much as 3-10 feet in as little as a decade or two. Imagine what would happen to any coastal cities in the world with sea level rising 3 to 10 feet in as little as a decade or two. What kind of economic, political, and social chaos would result from such a sudden sea-level rise across all of our global coastal areas?
Right now the sea ice surrounding many of the largest ice shelves in the world is melting at unprecedented rates. At just our current carbon levels, the stability of the bellwether West Antarctic ice sheet has already been breached and this ice loss is now irreversible. This rapidly melting West Antarctic ice sheet is an excellent example of another great global warming consequence evolving into a global warming tipping point that the world has hurdled past far faster than anyone had predicted or foreseen.
There will also be plankton dying from massive ocean carbon absorption resulting in less future ocean carbon absorption and more heat as well as less oxygen production, all of which results in more heat speeding up the whole process of more positive feedback loops, crossing more points of no return and tipping points. (Click here to learn more about each item listed above.)
Forests that were a major stabilizing force absorbing up to 30% of atmospheric carbon, become more neutral in their carbon absorption and eventually begin to stop taking any carbon from the atmosphere. This is a very scary tipping point that is already beginning to happen in 2020 in some areas of Amazon forests. Losing this forest massive carbon removal system will push temperatures up much faster than we are even remotely prepared for.
Phase 2: The following general global warming consequences will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale from 2032-2050.
The global warming-related consequences that will occur and continue to increase in this phase from continuing to burn fossil fuels at anything close to the rates we are now are similar to the consequences in part 1:
1. atmospheric heating which increases average global temperature,
2. new disease outbreaks, epidemics, and more COVID-19 like pandemics in areas where they have never been before. (This is due to loss of natural animal habitat, eating more wild animals, additional melting of the permafrost, overcrowding, less resilient health systems, and mass migrations. Because of accelerating global warming consequences, we could be experiencing COVID-19 type pandemics every decade.)
3. shrinking sea ice and ice shelves, glaciers and snowpack,
4. extreme storms of all kinds, (hurricanes, tornadoes, rain bombs, bomb cyclones, etc,)
5. crop failures increasing mass starvation, and soaring food prices,
7. new disease outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics in areas where they have never been before,
8. clean drinking water scarcity,
10. fires and wildfires,
12. toxic air pollution,
13. ocean acidification, (Ocean heating and ocean acidification from carbon from global warming will eventually kill off much of the oceans' oxygen-producing plankton. These plankton are responsible for as much as 50% of all oxygen produced on the planet.)
14. loss of biodiversity,
15. jet stream disruption, (disruption of seasonal weather patterns,)
15. mass human migrations,
16 animal and insect migrations,
17. forests that were a major stabilizing force absorbing carbon become neutral in their carbon absorption and stop taking carbon from the atmosphere. (Soon in later phases the forests will begin to release their vast stores of carbon pushing temperatures higher even faster.)
18. economic losses. (In this phase, most nations will spend 3-7 percent of their total gross domestic product (GDP) directly or indirectly paying for the consequences of the global warming emergency.)
19. accelerating reef collapses around the world, (which negatively affects fish spawning and feeding areas, which causes more collapse of global fish populations, which causes more human starvation around the world. This is because fish protein is a major source of food for the world's poorer populations.)
20. slowing continues in the Atlantic Current. This further destabilizes global weather.
In one way or another, directly or indirectly as the above list of heat-driven global warming consequences increase in severity, frequency, and scale the following things occur:
1. Overall, there will ever-increasing damage to our economic, social, and political systems. This will cause immense, even unthinkable human suffering.
2. The total human capacity to work or produce will go down significantly, causing more business and distribution interruptions, business, and personal uncertainty, and unemployment.
3. There will be less food available from crops and fish stocks due to many of the extreme climate consequences.
4. Food prices will rise.
5. More people will starve.
6. The costs for living, repair, maintenance, building, or rebuilding in global warming safer areas will continue to go up.
7. There will be increasing disease, epidemics, and pandemics.
8. There be increasing migrations of starving, sick, or unemployed people fleeing from climate consequences and unstable or collapsed economies or nations.
9. There will be ever-increasing criminality by larger and larger portions of the population who are starving, ill or unemployed, and desperately trying to survive by any means possible.
10. Because of the growing criminality and social and political chaos, governments will impose states of emergency and martial law resulting in increased restrictions, suffering, and the loss of many hard-won human rights.
11. As the social economic and political chaos spreads, there will be more regional, national, and international conflicts and more conventional (and even a great potential for limited nuclear wars) because of growing resource scarcity, global warming-safe land scarcity, and increasing unstoppable migrations.
12. When all of the above items are taken collectively, it will cause additional economies and nations that were less stable to collapse entirely. And finally,
13. Human suffering and global deaths will continue to increase exponentially. Human deaths will eventually reach mass extinction levels.
Also, during this phase, as the above consequences intensify, local governments will order more and more precautionary evacuations as a first step in limiting casualties and losses.
Phase 2: From 2032-2050, there will be continuous and critical inter-reactions of the global warming consequences with our 12 other global challenges.
Global warming is not taking place in a vacuum where the world is not also dealing with other major global crises. Once we go over the 2025 global warming climate cliff (carbon 425-450 ppm,) we will make humanity's other 12 critical global crises so much worse that, the survival of humankind beyond a few more decades is highly unlikely.
Here is a brief re-listing of these other 12 critical global challenges:
Global Challenge 1: resolving the current COVID-19 global pandemic,
Global Challenge 2: increasing global economic instabilities,
Global Challenge 3: over-population,
Global Challenge 4: rising global resource depletion,
Global Challenge 5: escalating pollution of lands, air, and waters.
Global Challenge 6: loss of biodiversity,
Global Challenge 7: growing economic inequality, social and racial injustice, hunger, and poverty.
Global Challenge 8: escalating regional and international terrorism, conflicts, and war,
Global Challenge 9: mass migrations,
Global Challenge 10: new COVID-19 like pandemics as well as other new and old disease epidemics that will likely occur every decade,
Global Challenge 11: increasing political instability and collapsing governments, And
Global Challenge 12: our failure to evolve effective global governance. (For a full description of each of these 12 critical global challenges, click here.
For most of humanity's 12 other critical global crises, climate change, and global warming are simultaneously the great disruptors of the 21st century as well as threat mega-multipliers.
The above 12 other non-global warming challenges will interact with each other and likely continue to worsen in this phase of the Climageddon Scenario. In some cases, these 12 challenges getting worse over time will also speed up economic, social, and political instability, uncertainty, and chaos caused by global warming within this particular Climageddon Scenario phase.
When you mix our accelerating global warming threat multiplier in with these 12 other expanding global challenges you create for yourself a converging cascade of endless catastrophes. This cascading interaction process will cross-intensify and worsen many of the global warming consequences of this phase as well as our 12 other global challenges. (See this page if you need to refresh yourself on the details and processes relating to our 12 other critical global warming challenges.)
Global Warming: the Keystone to the Global Collapse of Civilization
It is also essential to learn to think about accelerating global warming as the keystone of impending global collapse. This is because it will speed up the collapse of most of the other 12 global challenges.
If you have seen a Roman architectural arch, you already know a little about what a keystone is. It is the central, usually triangular-shaped stone at the top center of the curvature. It is also the critical supporting stone that holds all the other stones in place and maintains the integrity and strength of the arch. If you pull a keystone out of a Roman arch, the whole arch immediately crumbles and ultimately falls in on itself.
That is also what will figuratively happen with civilization if we let global warming get out of control.
Imagine a Roman arch made up of global warming (our climate) as its keystone and the other 12 global challenges as the remaining stones holding up the arch of our civilization. In this image, global warming is the keystone that when it crumbles (due to accelerating heat) will lead to the ultimate collapse of our global civilization.
Unfortunately, our accelerating global warming challenge will also facilitate the collapse of our global civilization in the quickest and surest way. The only global challenge that will lead to a quicker and more certain global civilization collapse is an immediate global nuclear war.
Additionally, do not forget that when the global warming keystone begins to collapse, it also forces the other 12 global challenges to have intensified consequences and themselves begin collapsing far faster than we can be prepared for or from which we can recover. If the global warming keystone collapses by crossing more and more of its internal tipping points (as described in the six Climageddon phases), every projected time frame relating to global warming's consequences and the world's 12 other global challenges would also radically change for the worse.
Outcomes that were predicted to be many decades away could now become just a few decades away. At the least, the consequences and timeframes indicated in the six Climageddon Scenario phases would be significantly speeded up!
Up until now, the focus of the Climageddon Scenario has been near exclusively on global warming. At this point, it is critical to also see the collapse of our civilization as a separate and far more significant issue hidden within the global warming emergency.
When accelerating global warming multiplies and amplifies the consequences of the 12 other global challenges, it becomes the hot, lit match that can rapidly expedite the adverse effects of the other 12 global challenges causing them to explode. This explosion of adverse consequences across our global challenges would result in the complete or near-complete collapse of our global civilization.
Worse yet, the multiplying and amplifying effect of accelerating global warming on the other 12 global warming challenges could shorten the Climageddon Scenario predicted time frames for the coming social, economic, and political consequences (with their resultant potentials for system collapse and chaos) by as much as 10-30 percent or more.
What happens when you mix escalating global warming consequences with the escalating consequences of the other 12 global challenges?
When you are thinking about the interacting collective and individual global warming and the 12 other global challenge impacts of this Climageddon phase, you must also take into account the expanding direct and indirect impacts upon human social, economic, and political systems and the tipping points within those unique human systems. For example, as we continue to experience more of the multiplying, amplifying and magnifying consequences mentioned above (that will also increase in frequency, severity, and scale,) we will also begin to experience even more random human system crashes and collapses which have previously only occurred when severe stresses had arisen within our social, economic and political human systems.
All of the previously mentioned consequences interacting, multiplying, or amplifying each other will then eventually push more of our human systems ever closer toward or over their own internal tipping points. This means that eventually, more of the weaker countries will collapse under the ever-increasing weight of these rising internal economic, political, and social climate-related catastrophes.
What also will begin to happen as we leave Phase 2 and enter Phase 3 is that more nuclear reactors, toxic chemical manufacturing plants and any chemical or biological weapons stockpiles in the weakest nations will become even more vulnerable to accidental meltdown, release or theft as the governments of weaker nations lose their remaining resources or manpower to keep these critical sites secure and operational.
As more of the world's weakest nations collapse from the mounting global warming, our other global challenges, they will create even more desperate climagees (in the tens then hundreds of millions.) As rising climagee migrations seeks to enter stronger or safer nations, the stronger nations will also begin to experience more severe local, regional and national breakdowns in law and order as they experience even greater stresses upon their own economic, social and political systems. At the end of Phase 2, a few of the world's strongest nations will also begin destabilizing from the weight of the accumulating consequences.
Warning signs that a tipping point may soon be crossed in biological, climate and human systems
Many times, just before a tipping point is crossed and crashes, it experiences a period of increasing oscillations, “flipping” more rapidly from one state to another. Not only does it oscillate from one state to another at a faster rate, but the severity of the oscillations also increases. Finally, the frequency of the oscillation swings also begins to accelerate and occur in closer time proximity.
Whenever you see this type of intensified oscillation pattern occurring, whether it's in climate or biological systems or the stock market, it is the harbinger of significant changes and often system crashes. Additionally, smaller systems and subsystems will move into a state of chaos or collapse more readily than larger systems and subsystems due to smaller systems and subsystems usually having less inertia to resist the change.
As you read about all of the coming consequences within the six phases of the Climageddon Scenario, please keep in mind the above illustration showing increasing ups and downs occurring over shorter and shorter periods before a system crash. Being aware of this pre-crash process will assist you from getting caught unprepared in most situations.
Risk and threat ratings
Phase 2 Torino impact rating:
Torino rating 9: The threat is highly certain for unprecedented localized regional and national destruction. Attention by the public and both national and international governments to contingency planning is critical if the event is less than 3 decades away. Click here and go to the section of the page called Action Plan Section 2 near the bottom of the page to learn what the governments must start doing immediately.
Phase 2 US military DEFCON rating:
DEFCON 3: Armed forces readiness increased above normal levels; Air Force ready to mobilize in 15 minutes.
Phase 2 US Homeland Security risk rating:
The hidden danger of Phase 2 is that it is a key transition phase within the scenario. From there on, with each new tipping point and point of no return crossed, the effects collide across climate, human, and biological systems, and we lose all control of our future control even faster and the global warming process itself deepens its irreversibility.
When global warming becomes irreversible, it is important to understand that it will remain irreversible beyond any meaningful time frame compared to a human lifespan. It will persist for hundreds or thousands of years. This phase-by-phase loss of meaningful and effective control is also not gradual or linear—it accelerates and steepens as each subsequent phase of the Climageddon Scenario is entered.
Congratulations! You have finished Phase 2 of the Climageddon Scenario. There are 4 more well-illustrated and soon-arriving Climageddon Scenario phases to review where, unfortunately, things get even worse as global warming worsens.
Because the Climageddon Scenario is already unfolding, please do not forget that if we do reach the last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by plus or minus 5 percent, we will avoid the worst consequences of the Climageddon Scenario and mass extinction! Life over the millennia always seems to find a way to solve its previous mass extinction challenges!
To help prevent the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario from unfolding there exists a deadline-prioritized, effective action plan to ensure we do not trigger the later mass extinction phases. Click here for a brief overview of this plan. Once we get the greatest disruptor and threat multiplier of the 21st-century (global warming,) under control by building truly sustainable lifestyles and livelihoods, we can then move on to some of the deeper social and economic causes of global warming by focusing more on the other non-global warming global challenges mentioned on this page.
The July 2020 Special Update on changing preparation and adaption timeframes for the global warming emergency: Please click here and go to our member's area critical timeframe update on these issues as soon as possible. This update is vital if you want to prepare your family or business for what is now unavoidable!
To see all of the Climageddon Scenario Phase 3, beginning as soon as 2030-2040, click here.