A New Analysis by the Universe Institute
It appears that the world is unraveling with a COVID-19 pandemic, growing economic uncertainty, public loss of faith and trust in our governments, global warming, civil unrest, racial injustice, species extinction, and much more. As you will read below humanity is no longer dealing with single-incident, non-interconnected local crises. Humanity has entered into a deteriorating and undeclared globalized emergency involving almost all of its critical global systems.
There are 13 critical systemic global challenges causing the current cascading convergence of worsening global catastrophes which collectively are crushing the probability and possibilities of having a liveable future for both ourselves and future generations.
These global challenges are:
Global Challenge 1: Resolving the current COVID-19 global pandemic. Directly and indirectly, the current COVID-19 pandemic is due in significant part to the loss of natural wild animal habitat caused by global warming and other man-made causes such as eating more wild and not domesticated animals, the exploding and hungry world populations crowding into urban areas, and the overall deterioration of global health services.
If a vaccine is ever found, the COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to go on around the world until mid to late 2021 or even into early 2022 before everyone is vaccinated. If no vaccine is found, like what has happened with AIDS and other viruses over the last 30 years, we will be living with the effects of COVID-19 until a “herd immunity” is developed (if that immunity is even applicable to this virus. A somewhat safer global herd immunity could take as many a 3-5 years to develop.)
Global Challenge 2: increasing global economic instabilities that are leading to regularly reoccurring global and national recessions or depressions over shorter and shorter time periods. (These recessions and depressions are fueled by existing economic weaknesses, lack of financial reserves, huge national deficits, low financial system resilience, and major unexpected shocks or events (like COVID-19,) hitting the global markets and global financial systems.
COVID-19 is predicted to create a global financial recession or depression that could last until late 2022 or until 2025 or as long as 2030. (Ten years for recovery from a COVID-19 global recession or depression is not that long when you consider that ten years is the time it took to recover from the 2008 global banking and housing meltdown and recession.)
Global Challenge 3: ever-rising over-population, (the Earth has the carrying capacity for about 1 1/2 - 2 billion people. Currently, we are near 8 billion people adding about 130 million additional people each year racing to 9.8 billion by or before 2050. (About 50 million people a year normally die.)
We are way over sustainable population levels already yet, no government other than China seems willing to set a one child per couple policy! Future and current generations will suffer unthinkable catastrophes because, as humanity, we failed to manage the size of our global population to match the carrying capacity of our global environment and the Earth's available resources.
Please note that as the global population continues to rise, the additional population serves to further amplify and multiply the most harmful consequences of almost all the 12 other global challenges and consequences listed on this page.) One could easily say that overpopulation and its inherent over-consumption beyond our carrying capacity is also a major cause behind today's global warming emergency. (Please click this carrying capacity link to learn more about why this rapidly rising overpopulation challenge is so dangerous.)
For a candid and balanced article on the immense suffering caused by our overpopulation global challenge, please see this article, Population, the Great Knee-Jerker: A Holistic Survey and Plea to Reduce Suffering.
Global Challenge 4: rising global resource depletion (aka overshoot) caused by overpopulation, toxic pollution of water, lands, and air, crop failures, overfishing, topsoil loss, resource distribution injustice, and the massive “overconsumption and waste” of the Earth's finite resources. Global resource depletion will significantly increase food shortages and cause soaring food prices leading to more starvation and mass migrations. For example, the following are estimates of when only a few of our critical global resources will be depleted; freshwater 12 years (2032), fish stocks almost totally gone by 2050, adequate topsoil for crop growing gone by 2070. (See this page to see 90 percent of fish stock already overfished and to see charts on how this loss will throw much of the world into starvation.)
If you still do not believe that massive resource depletion and overshoot is a huge soon-arriving problem? Watch this fantastic overshoot video with great graphics and global resource depletion amounts and time frames in simple illustrations by Hugh Montgomery, a noted English professor. (We strongly recommend you watch this video for all of the food and non-food resources that are in accelerating depletion peril. [Forward the video to the 10 minutes and 30-second mark to begin watching Hugh Montgomery's compelling graphic presentation.])
There are also many other critical mineral and non-mineral resources that will also run out soon, click here for more about these.
Global Challenge 5: escalating pollution of lands, air, and waters. Ongoing and accelerating toxic pollution kills crops, fish stocks, and poisons our air, water, and soil creating and accelerating all types of global health, social, and economic problems. (Ocean heating and ocean acidification from carbon from global warming will eventually kill off much of the oceans' oxygen-producing plankton. These plankton are responsible for as much as 50% of all oxygen produced on the planet.)
Global Challenge 6: loss of biodiversity, we are having more plants and animals go extinct than at any other time in human history. This is due to an ongoing and accelerating loss of natural habitat due to overpopulation, global warming, overuse, pollution, etc. (Leading Stanford University biologists, who were first to reveal that we are already experiencing the sixth mass extinction on Earth, released new research this week showing species extinctions are accelerating in an unprecedented manner, which may be another tipping point for the collapse of human civilization.)
Global Challenge 7: growing economic inequality, social and racial injustice, hunger, and poverty. Today less than 1% of the world's population owns more than 50% of all wealth. Over for the last several decades, this ownership percentage continues to grow in favor of the wealthy.
Growing economic inequality and poverty always increase food shortages and often cause food prices to soar leading once again to mass starvation and mass migrations. This year (2020,) 130 million people are lacking adequate food and could starve to death. COVID-19's effect on the world economy could double that number of the next few years. Over the following decades, global warming consequences will raise that number into the hundreds of millions eventually rising well past a billion.)
Global Challenge 8: escalating regional and international terrorism, conflicts, and war. While COVID-19 has temporarily slowed some regional and national conflicts, expect these conflicts to increase in intensity, frequency, and scale once COVID-19 is brought under control. The world still faces all of the other global challenges on this page getting worse and being mostly unresolved. Global nuclear war is still both a real and escalating threat as all of the global challenges on this page continue to get worse and nations with nuclear weapons contest with each other and other nations for safer lands and dwindling resources.
Global Challenge 9: More mass migrations, political and economic instability, increasing terrorism, conflicts, and war plus global warming and many of the other listed global challenges on this page will both create and expand sudden, massive migrations of millions then billions of people. During this phase, as the listed global challenges on this page intensify, various stronger governments will order precautionary evacuations to limit casualties and losses from their most vulnerable areas. Before 2030 because of global warming alone, the world will see hundreds of millions of climagees (climate refugees.)
Global Challenge 10: New COVID-19 like pandemics as well as other new and old disease epidemics that will likely occur every decade. This will in part be due to global warming melting of the permafrost, loss of natural animal habitat, eating more wild animals, overcrowding, less resilient health systems, mass migrations, wars and conflicts, and many of the other challenges and consequences listed on this page.
Because of accelerating global warming emergency, more COVID-19 type global pandemics could come as often as every decade. The AIDS virus became widespread in the late 1970s, the SARS virus in 2003, the MERS virus in 2012, and the Ebola virus in 2013. Click here for exactly how escalating global warming may begin producing COVID-19 like pandemics every decade.
Global Challenge 11: increasing political instability and collapsing governments. Fueled by existing internal and external conflicts, soaring deficits, and the intensifying global challenges listed on this page, poorly managed nations with weak economies and low existing resilience will fall first. In 2020 we already see numerous countries on the verge of economic or political collapse. As the increased stresses of these listed global challenges continue to increase upon already weakened nations, more nations will steadily collapse.
Global Challenge 12: Our failure to evolve effective global governance with the needed legislative, judicial, and enforceable executive powers to solve global challenges that cross national borders. If you think about it carefully, you will discover that this global challenge (and critical evolutionary failure,) of having no unified or truly effective global governance, IS one of the single biggest reasons and core structural causes for why most of our other global challenges have not yet been resolved or, continue to exist. The evolutionary absence of effective global governance alone acts to facilitate, escalate, or enable almost all of the other global challenges that we currently face. And finally last, but far from least,
Global Challenge 13: The accelerating global warming emergency. This global warming emergency is causing escalating desertification, sea-level rise, flooding, deforestation, reef collapse, droughts, wildfires, extreme storms, and the spread of diseases through epidemics and pandemics. All of these global warming specific consequences are increasing scale, severity, and frequency as our average global temperature continues to rise.
Accelerating global warming was listed last because, currently, it is the single greatest disruptor and global threat multiplier of the 21st century. It can directly or indirectly significantly amplify and multiply the adverse consequences of almost every other global challenge listed on this page. Our global warming emergency of itself, if not resolved soon, will cause the deaths of as much as 70-90% of humanity within as little as the next 30-50 years. Worse yet, before 2050 we will also cross several extinction-evoking global warming tipping points (described here.)
Global warming is very bad for the world's economy. The rising consequences of the global warming emergency will consume larger and larger percentages of every nations Gross Domestic Productivity (GDP.)
As global warming reaches its later Climageddon Scenario phases, it will become more likely that we will destroy ourselves in a massive war or nuclear conflict over the remaining resources or global warming safer lands.
(To get the details of just how bad the global warming emergency really is, click here. To avoid global warming extinction we must meet the very difficult 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets found here. Our current out of control global warming has a precise definition. Click here to see what it means to your future safety and finances.)
Excluding the challenge of having no real global government (which is an evolutionary, structural, and developmental issue) and immediate global thermonuclear war, our out of control global warming is the single most dangerous global challenge today. It is also the most dangerous global challenge because:
a.) It is also the most immediate and probable meta-trigger for the growing possibility of a chain reaction of whipsawing and simultaneous ecological, economic, social, and political catastrophes and converging mass system collapses involving directly or indirectly most of the other greatest global challenges listed above. If you think about accelerating global warming as a brightly burning match that will ignite the highly explosive and destructive "fuels" already existing within most of the other 12 critical challenges listed above, you would have another good idea why we have to get the global warming emergency under control as our immediate and top priority. (See the Climageddon Scenario extinction prediction model for all of the details on both consequences and timeframes of the global warming emergency)
b.) It is a severe security threat already unfolding. It is causing substantial global problems right now and, it is rapidly growing toward crossing more known and unknown extinction-evoking tipping points, which have made global warming currently all but out of our control. It can and will end most of the human species within our lifetimes if we do not act soon! (This article discusses most of the known and unknown climate tipping points. Also, see this new article on the global warming emergency that has been read over 900,000 times.)
What will our ongoing and long term global warming meltdown process look like
We will experience the following global warming-related consequences that will occur more and more over time and continue to increase in frequency, severity, and scale:
1. atmospheric heating which increases average global temperature,
2. new disease outbreaks, epidemics, and more COVID-19 like pandemics in areas where they have never been before. (This is due to loss of natural animal habitat, eating more wild animals, additional melting of the permafrost, overcrowding, less resilient health systems, and mass migrations. Because of accelerating global warming consequences, we could soon be experiencing COVID-19 type pandemics as often as every decade.)
3. shrinking sea ice and ice shelves, glaciers and snowpack,
4. extreme storms of all kinds, (hurricanes, tornadoes, rain bombs, bomb cyclones, etc,)
5. crop failures increasing mass starvation, and soaring food prices,
7. new disease outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics in areas where they have never been before,
8. clean drinking water scarcity,
10. fires and wildfires,
12. toxic air pollution,
13. ocean acidification, (Ocean heating and ocean acidification from carbon from global warming will eventually kill off much of the oceans' oxygen-producing plankton. These plankton are responsible for as much as 50% of all oxygen produced on the planet.)
14. loss of biodiversity,
15. jet stream disruption, (disruption of seasonal weather patterns,)
15. mass human migrations,
16 animal and insect migrations,
17. forests that were a major stabilizing force absorbing carbon become neutral in their carbon absorption and stop taking carbon from the atmosphere. (Soon in later phases the forests will begin to release their vast stores of carbon pushing temperatures higher even faster.)
18. economic losses. (most nations will spend an ever-increasing percentage of their total gross domestic product (GDP) directly or indirectly paying for the consequences of the global warming emergency.)
19. accelerating reef collapses around the world, (which negatively affects fish spawning and feeding areas, which causes more collapse of global fish populations, which causes more human starvation around the world. This is because fish protein is a major source of food for the world's poorer populations.)
20. slowing continues in the Atlantic Current. This further destabilizes global weather.
21. decreased albedo from reduced snow cover increasing earth's heat,
22. soils overheating and instead of absorbing atmospheric carbon, they begin releasing carbon back into the atmosphere increasing heat,
23. oceans overheating and instead of absorbing atmospheric carbon, they begin releasing it (which also further increases heat, all of which results in more heat speeding up the whole process of more positive feedback loops, crossing more points of no return and tipping points.)
24. an increased amount of methane is released from the permafrost and methane clathrate crystals on coastal shelves because of warmer oceans (this further increases heat, possible ocean current change resulting in extreme weather changes, all of which once again results in more heat speeding up the whole process of more positive feedback loops, crossing more points of no return and tipping points. For more about this mass extinction methane tipping point and time bomb, see the third extinction-evoking global warming tipping point on this page.)
24. massive tectonic plate weight change from weight changes in melting ice and rising seas above the tectonic plates causing increased earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, all of which except the earthquakes and volcanoes results in more heat speeding up the whole process of more positive feedback loops, crossing more points of no return and tipping points.
What happens when the above 12 critical global challenges "feed" into each other's consequences?
The future is not just a single global challenge getting worse. It is almost all of them getting worse at the same time as well as these global challenges pushing other challenges faster and faster toward their tipping and collapse points. This means that those living today (and future generations) will face a cascading convergence of worsening global catastrophes, which collectively will crush the probability and possibilities of having a liveable future.
If left managed ineffectively, hundreds of millions then billions will suffer and die. Paradoxically, because so many will die, many of the above challenges will lessen dramatically or be radically reduced because there will be so few people left competing or fighting for survival. There could also be a point where most of the coming mass die-off will not be coming solely from starvation, global warming, or other global challenges. It will come from new scarce resources or border wars that could even go nuclear as the few remaining stable nations try to retain their boundaries and survival.
Take a few moments at this point. Ask yourself the following questions. How long do you think humanity can muddle on into the 21st century without effectively resolving the above 13 critical global challenges as they continue to get worse; 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, or the end of the 21st century?
Are our leaders and governments being effective in handing all most or even any of these critical global challenges to our future?
"No existing emergency preparedness program, government, NGO or international organization is even remotely close to being prepared for, or capable of recovering from the large scale convergence, whipsawing, and amplification of almost all of Earth's greatest global challenges fueled and accelerated by the great disruptor and keystone threat multiplier of accelerating global warming.
This "Great Convergence" of all of the above 13 global challenges creates a whole planetary system emergency never before seen or experienced in human history. This "Great Convergence" is also the 'perfect storm of perfect storms' and the most likely spiraling initiator and combined cause for the extinction of the human species within a few decades." --Lawrence Wollersheim
How all of this directly or indirectly will affect you as global warming accelerates, interacts and amplifies the 12 other global challenges
In one way or another, directly or indirectly, as the above list of heat-driven global warming consequences increase in severity, frequency, and scale the following things will also occur as we grow closer to our a doomsday for humanity and civilization:
1. The total human capacity to work or produce will go down significantly, causing more business and distribution interruptions, business, and personal uncertainty, and unemployment, and homelessness.
2. There will be less food available from crops and fish stocks due to many of the extreme climate consequences.
3. Food prices will rise.
4. More people will starve.
5. The costs for simply living, or repair, maintenance, building, or rebuilding in global warming safer areas will continue to go up significantly.
6. There will be increasing disease, epidemics, and pandemics.
7. There be increasing migrations of starving, sick, or unemployed people fleeing from climate consequences and unstable or collapsed economies or nations.
8. There will be ever-increasing criminality by larger and larger portions of the population who are starving, ill or unemployed, and desperately trying to survive by any means possible.
9. Because of the growing criminality and social and political chaos, governments will impose states of emergency and martial law resulting in increased restrictions, suffering, and the loss of many hard-won human rights.
10. As the social economic and political chaos spreads, there will be more regional, national, and international conflicts and more conventional wars. There will even be a significant potential for limited nuclear war. These conflicts and wars will be due to growing resource scarcity, global warming-safe land scarcity, unstoppable migrations and other items listed on this page.
11. When all of the above items are taken collectively, it will cause additional economies and nations that were less stable to collapse entirely. And finally,
12. Human suffering and global deaths will continue to increase exponentially. Human deaths will eventually reach mass extinction levels.
What must we immediately do to have anything like a livable future!
We need to handle the greatest and most certain threat first before it crosses tipping points of no return. Then we can move forward on the other global challenges more effectively and wisely.
In spite of 35 years of warnings about the global warming emergency, we have not slowed the single greatest threat to the future other than immediate nuclear war, accelerating global warming. We have failed horribly in fixing global warming and most of our other global challenges.
We have a herculean challenge in front of us! It will drastically affect the economy, but it can be done.
We shut down the world's economy for months because of fear of dying from COVID-19. And, it is likely that the world's economy will not recover soon because of COVID-19 restrictions that will remain in place until a vaccine is found. That could be years or maybe never. (A vaccine for the AIDS virus was never found.)
If we were able to shut down the world's economy because of our fear of millions dying in the COVID-19 pandemic, we could also do what is necessary to reduce global fossil fuel use to reach the 2025 targets because of our fear of billions dying in the global warming emergency.
We must start this difficult process of "first things first" by getting the "last chance" 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets successfully executed (or at least get as close to them as possible) or, we all will go over the climate cliff and cross the three extinction-evoking global warming tipping points making the future unlivable within just a few decades. (Click here for learning about the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.)
If we are going to have any chance of having the necessary time and resources to manage and fix our other critical global challenges and prevent their cascading catastrophic convergence in an end-of-humanity scenario, we must first get the global warming extinction emergency under control as our highest priority!
Here is how we can do this while also solving or improving many of the other global challenges listed above. Click here to see the Job One for Humanity Plan to manage and survive the global extinction emergency and get our other most critical global challenges under better control. It also includes an important way to create a sustainable prosperity for all!
If you believe or feel a cascading catastrophic convergence of the above critical global challenges to be a real possibility within your lifetime, then take some time now to review this honest, positive, and effective new plan to help mitigate and prepare for our current global warming emergency.
Click here for the Job One for Humanity Plan to Survive Global Warming and help manage or resolve many of the other global challenges listed above!
The core message of this article (and our website) is simple and straightforward. These are also the facts that most other environmental groups are afraid to tell you about:
Fact 1: Our world governments were not prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic. They are even more unprepared for the escalating global warming emergency. Our governments have also ignored 35 years of persuasive global warming warnings by our best scientists, just like many of them ignored our pandemic scientists' advice.
Fact 2: Our governments are not telling us the truth about how bad global warming is going to get. Many catastrophic global warming consequences are going to arrive far sooner than we are being told.
Some of the coming catastrophic global warming consequences are already unavoidable!
Fact 3: If we keep going the way we are now, our governments are about five years away (2025) from missing our last theoretical opportunity to reduce global warming enough to be able to control our global warming futures. This means that we will not be able to prevent the most catastrophic global warming outcomes from occurring over the next several decades.
We have also reached the point where only government-driven efforts by all nations can save us. It is far too late for individual actions to achieve the fossil fuel reductions needed to save us in time.
Fact 4: If we keep acting the way we are now, we will not meet our last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Despite the horrible odds of not hitting the 2025 global reduction targets, we still must do everything we can do to come as close to meeting these targets as is possible.
If we come close to these 2025 targets, we can at least slow down and delay a human, animal, and plant species mass extinction event, which will unfold over the next 30-50 years. (Click here to read about the four extinction-evoking global warming tipping points that we will cross when our average global temperature increases to the 2°C level. This temperature level will push us over the climate cliff into a mass extinction event within 3-5 decades.)
The great news here is that by just getting close to the 2025 targets and as well as dealing with these 12 other critical global challenges, we can still give ourselves the needed time to prevent a total human extinction event from occurring.
Part 3 of the Job One for Humanity Plan will show you how our governments can get this done and save us in time.
Fact 5: Because we are so far behind in reducing global warming to come close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and because we are failing to adequately deal with these 12 other critical global challenges, it is NOW the proper time for wise individuals to create their own Plan B.
Plan B is a global warming emergency preparation, adaptation, and survival plan. With this backup plan in place, you can still "keep working for the best outcomes after you have prepared for the worst."
This way, you also will have your Plan B ready and you won't be unprepared for the mass suffering and death from the rapidly escalating consequences of the global warming emergency interacting with these 12 other critical global challenges!
It is not just Job One for Humanity organization saying these scary things. Hundreds of climate scientists now feel we cannot keep global warming below a 2°C increase. This 2°C trigger point means that all we can do right now is prepare for and adapt to what's coming. (Click here to read about the four extinction-evoking global warming tipping points that we will cross when our average global temperature increases to the 2°C level.)
(If needed, click here to review the many reasons why it is highly unlikely we will reach our 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and why we must begin preparing ourselves.)
The above is all you have to remember about global warming and your future. Many of the pages on our website will show you the exact science behind these five simple statements to verify what we are saying is true.
We trust you will make up your own mind about what to do after thinking about and carefully verifying the facts that we are presenting. We have learned that not everyone decides to take the same remedial or protective actions once they get over the initial shock of what they have read. Because we all are different and have different circumstances, we have provided the new Job One for Humanity Global Warming Reduction Plan which contains many options for very different kinds of individual or collective responses to our current global warming emergency.
Bonus Fact 1: At the end of this article to balance this negative and highly disruptive global warming news, you will find the good news of a comprehensive and useful four-part new plan for what you can do right now to help control the global warming emergency while we still have time left to do so!
Click here to see the Climate Change and Global Warming Doomsday Clock and see how much time we have left.
If we fail to meet the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets in time...
then they will need to immediately switch over to leading humanity into executing a global warming and global challenge crisis emergency plan or Plan B for HUmanity.
Click here to review the global warming emergency PLan B. It covers what we all will need to do if we fail to hit the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. as well as how to manage and improve some of the other global challenges listed on this page )
Plan B for Humanity is our last chance emergency back up plan!
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To counterbalance all of this difficult news
on this page and to see all of the wonderful benefits of solving the global warming emergency and many of these other critical global challenges, click here. This is the most read page on our website!