Welcome, Climageddon Book Readers!
Climageddon book readers are becoming activists. Numerous readers have written to me as the book's author and told me how they are mobilizing within their own countries enacting various parts of the new Job One Plan. One reader has started on a fictional novel version of Climageddon to help people get the message. Several readers are working on creating and sustainable eco-communities in global warming safer zones.
It's all quite exciting. But there's more.
There have been several important updates to the Climageddon book since it was published. On this author's page, you will find these important updates since the book's release almost 2 years ago. These updates are based on the newest global warming (aka climate change,) research and an updated meta climate systems analysis including this newer research.
Below you will find the relevant prioritized updates:
A quick mini-overview of the five most important book updates and facts
Please click here to see Climageddon's updated and briefest overview and position on the latest global warming facts and research. It will also lead you to all of the most important areas of our website related to the most important Climageddon upgrades listed below. But, it does not all of the other upgrades listed below.
The biggest Climageddon book update
In the new book Climageddon, it was stated that if we were very, very lucky, global warming may not become irreversible. But just one year after publication, we now know differently. Global warming has, for all intents and purposes has become out of our meaningful control for at least the next 30-50 years due in part to the continually accumulating or increasing factors found on this page.
For those of you who doubt that global warming has already become out of meaningful control for at least the next 30-50 years, please click the preceding link and read the following new information not found in the Climageddon book.
Once you have read and understood the new out of control global warming document on our website you then understand the second biggest update to the Climageddon book and why we have had to make all the fast upgrades to Part 2 of the book.
Please note that global warming being irreversible for at least the next 30-50 years does not significantly change almost anything else in the book other than redoing the Job One Plan (as noted above,) and other than suggesting that the consequences and timetables discussed in the book are even more certain and could be coming sooner than even the book predicts.
The second biggest Climageddon book update
Please do not read any of the original six chapters found only within Part 2 of Climageddon, "The key action steps of the Job One Plan to end global warming!" We have had to significantly update, re-order and re-prioritize the Job One Plan content and action steps from what was presented in the original Climageddon book to deal with the new realities of global warming becoming out of meaningful control for at least, the next 30-50 years. (More will be said about this new issue in the second biggest book update further below on this page.)
We are providing this free website update of the new Part 2 of the book to all Climageddon readers. To read the new Part 2 two of Climageddon use the four links below as follows:
Click here for Part 1 of the Job one Plan on how to best prepare yourself, family and business for the unavoidable worst consequences of global warming. (Part 1 was formerly Part 4 of the original Job One Plan found in the Climageddon book. We had to move it forward because global warming is now out of meaningful control for at least, the next 30-50 years and everyone needs to do some basic emergency preparation to survive the unavoidable consequences that are coming while they work on the other Job One steps below. It also contains much more specificity on the very small "Goldilocks zone" of areas that will be safer as global warming gets worse.
Click here for Part 2 of the Job One Plan on the best individual actions to help slow, lessen and adapt to the unavoidable worse consequences of global warming to do what you can to minimize the coming suffering and loss. (This new Part 2 was formerly an appendix in the Climageddon book. Individual actions now have a slightly more important role in helping to modestly slow, lessen and adapt to what is coming. These actions are an important part of creating greater sustainability for the future. At this point, although these actions will not prevent the coming consequences, the consequences that are now unavoidable are so threatening that even any modest slowing, lessening or adaption to them will be vital to saving more people from unnecessary suffering or death.)
Click here for Part 3 of the Job One Plan. It is the absolutely essential collective actions that will work to drastically reduce greenhouse gases down to net zero so we survive global warming. These are the most critical collective actions we must do to prevent the very extinction of humanity and future generations. (This is the original Part 3 of the Job One Plan found in the Climageddon book, but it has been extensively upgraded including a completely new action step 12. It also has been refocused even more deeply upon the single painful and dominant reality that we must make immediate, radical and costly reductions in our fossil fuel energy generation and use.)
In part three we added this very important copy:
Job One Part 3, Section 2, the Government-Level Emergency Backup Plan for How to Potentially Prevent Total Extinction
While fossil fuel reduction action steps are getting started and being done as described above, simultaneously the governments of the world must also begin moving critical resources, technology, infrastructure, and at-risk populations who are willing to move to the global warming safer zones in a wise, equitable and well-managed way. This backup plan is critical and needs to be enacted at the same emergency meeting of all world leaders described above in action step A above in section 1.
This step is essential because there are absolutely no guarantees anywhere or whatsoever that we will be successful in preventing our reaching the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point. In fact, it is far more likely we will cross this final tipping point than not.
Therefore we must have a security backup plan or Plan B, which prepares and plans for the worst possible outcome and so that we can still save and salvage whatever we can. This way at least, some of humanity might be able to survive longer. Hopefully, even if 70 to 90% or more of humanity dies an essential diverse portion of survivors and of our civilization's collective advancements will survive and go on as well.
Here are the basic actions of this "salvage what we can while we still have time" step:
Action Step 1. Workout a migration plan and a fair and equitable migration lottery for all those individuals who had not already migrated. For our long-term future and safety, essential resources, infrastructure, and an essential genetic and social diversity population transfer plan will need to be executed at the same time as the other action steps above are being done. If things continue to go bad as they are now, this action step may turn out to be the most important to the future of humanity and preserving civilization.
Wisely managing an orderly global warming migration by our governments with a fair and just lottery will be critical. This is in part, also because of the poor soils and shorter growing seasons near, above or below the 45th parallel north or the 45th parallel south. Those areas of poorer soils and inadequate sunlight will not be able to grow enough food to feed all or even a significant percentage of our current human population so this well-designed, but fair and just lottery will be critical to the survival of humanity and civilization.
Even before the lottery begins, our best scientists must determine how much food can be successfully grown in those global warming safe areas and what the maximum allowable population should be carefully based on total amount of food needed for that existing population while also maintaining adequate food reserves for unplanned and unexpected contingencies. Once they have those calculations, they can set initial and or adjust lottery migration allocations as conditions continually change.
Even before we get and set the final number of people that the remaining global warming safe zones will support, we must also mass mobilize the necessary agricultural resources to scale up food production in the global warming safer zones for the rapidly increasing migrating populations coming to those zones as well as to compensate for the generally poorer soils and reduced sunlight in the safer zones.
One last thing must be said about the migration lottery. It cannot be hijacked or dominated by wealthy individuals, corporations or nations in the safe zones. No special or unique interest group must unjustly control or determine who is allowed to migrate based on privilege, position, wealth, politics or any other national, cultural or social categorization.
If it is not a fair and just lottery, based upon what is essential for humanity and civilization to survive the global warming meltdown as well as an equitable representation of all of the categories mentioned just above, then those who are left behind will riot and eventually bring about the end of everything by invading the safe zones with whatever nuclear, biological or chemical technology has been left behind in the unsafe zones. Those in any kind of decision power over who is allowed to migrate cannot be allowed to use their political, military or financial positions, advantages or privileges to place themselves, their families, friends, allies or business interests in any better position than any other individual citizen in the unsafe zones in these lotteries.
In the end, a random lottery winner selection methodology (that has layers of independent safeguards to prevent fraud, bias, and any form of selection favoritism,) draws only from a pool of the most qualified migrants with essential skills for the new world we will be living in and allows for the following types of necessary diversity; genetic, national, racial, ethnic, religious, cultural, sexual orientation, gender identity, rural/urban/indigenous and rich/poor. These qualifications and proper quantities will be carefully determined by our best scientists and ethicists.
This will be the only kind of migration lottery that will be viewed as credible and will work. Communities which are most affected by global warming damages which also have least contributed to the global warming emergency will also receive special consideration if true justice is to be served.
There are many good reasons for executing this last chance save humanity and civilization, migration lottery and infrastructure transfer backup plan simultaneously with the other steps described higher up on this page. Here are just a few reminders:
First, we are fighting for the very survival of humanity over the next 30 to 50+ years. If we fail to slow and lessen global warming enough to not cross carbon 600 ppm and, we also fail to move enough of our critical infrastructure and essential populations to the far north or the far south in time, most if not all of humanity and human civilization will end.
Secondly, Our fossil fuel "bill of consequences" has come due and there's no way to escape it. We now have to deal with the horrible accumulated consequences of the fossil fuel carbon pollution of our atmosphere for the last 200 years since the industrial revolution began as well as the additional accumulating consequences from fossil fuel burning over the next 30-50+ years where we will certainly reach the carbon 500 ppm level (and most likely reach carbon 600 ppm extinction level.)
Thirdly, the fossil fuel pollution that we have now and that we will continue to put into our atmosphere for the next 30-50+ years will last for centuries to thousands of years! If we stay on our current path of "too little reductions too late," once we do finally stop our carbon pollution of the atmosphere, things will not get better for those who are lucky enough to survive for a very long time. Our children and future generations will truly curse us for our selfishness and blind stupidity as they suffer and wait for many centuries to pass for their climate to re-stabilize and the atmospheric carbon parts per million level to drop back down to the earlier and safer carbon 350-270 ppm levels. (As mentioned earlier, we are now at about carbon 413 ppm adding about 3 additional carbon ppm each year.)
Forthy, the amount of emergency adaptation work needed and the short amount of time available (from now until about 10-20-30 years from now as things get progressively much worse,) makes this immediate adaptation and preparation step a planning and action imperative. Adapting and moving all necessary critical resources, technology, infrastructure specifically means moving them into the safer areas near or above the 45th parallel north but not much above the 45th parallel much above the 55th parallel north or near or below the 45th parallel south, but not much above the 45th parallel south. This will be a massive undertaking, which will require new levels of cooperation between nations never seen before.
This also means beginning to move potentially hundreds of millions to billions of individuals willing to migrate in the global warming unsafe zones farther north or farther south into the safer zones if the land's food growing capabilities will support them. This will by necessity and urgency become the largest mass migration in human history. This mass migration will also be fraught with challenges and again will require international cooperation at unprecedented levels.
This Great Migration needs to begin right now because of its sheer scale and because of all of the necessary infrastructures that also must be simultaneously relocated in order for humanity to survive what's coming. This Great Migration also needs to begin right now because if we start now, it can be managed and orderly. If we wait until it's too late, there will be panic, chaos and severe conflicts if not all-out international war as people desperately try to migrate far north or far south once they realize that what is happening today is not random bad weather, but it is an ever-increasing pattern of ever more severe and extreme storms and other weather consequences that have not been seen for thousands if not millions of years.
By about 2029, at least 2-5% of the world's population about will have figured out that the wild climate fluctuations and seasonal extremes that they are witnessing are not random or freak occurrences. They will have figured out that the climate is destabilizing steadily and rapidly and, that the climate catastrophes we are already experiencing are showing a clear pattern of ever-increasing severity, frequency, and scale (the size of the area they are covering).
Once these hundreds of millions of people realize they need to get out soon or get caught in the chaos of crashing and soaring real estate, business, and market prices depending upon which area you're leaving or moving to, they will migrate and they will migrate fast! Once they migrate others will see and hear about it and they will begin migrating so they too do not get caught with no place to move to, or few resources to get there because of crashing real estate prices and other growing problems in the unsafe zones.
To avoid the potential chaos of this necessary Great Migration not well managed by cooperating world governments, our world governments need to act and begin the massive infrastructure migration and well-managed people migration NOW not 10 years from now. (Part 4 of the Job One Plan has creative workarounds and other provisions for how we can get our political leaders to begin the action steps of Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
And finally, to make this new fair and just lottery system work effectively, individuals already living near or above the 45th parallel north or near or above the 45th parallel south cannot and should not be removed to make room for others. This would only cause far greater conflict, delay, and confusion, which would further complicate an already massively complex undertaking.
Action Step 2: We need to ensure that nuclear reactors, nuclear and biological weapons, and toxic chemical manufacturing sites within the global warming unsafe zones are secured and more stable governments have backup plans in place for managing these contingencies as less stable governments and economies fall in the global warming unsafe zones.
As global warming worsens inside the global warming unsafe zones the political systems and nations will destabilize and most of them will totally collapse. Once those political systems collapse there will be no stable and organized method for ensuring that any nuclear reactors within those areas do not melt down and go critical or that nuclear or biological weapons within those areas are not stolen or triggered, or that toxic chemical manufacturing sites within those areas leak out threatening not only the survival of that particular regional area or the nations within that global warming unsafe zone but also the very survival of the whole world itself.
Take a moment to imagine the hundreds of nuclear reactors in the global warming unsafe zone becoming new Chernobyls and Fukagimas one after another. There would be no place on earth or any bunker that would keep you safe from this massive amount of radiation circling the earth for years.
Take a moment to imagine, the biological and chemical weapons as well as toxic chemical manufacturing sites in the unsafe global warming zones becoming compromised and leaking their slow and painful death out into the world. The preceding is exactly what will happen if the nations of the world do not cooperate in this emergency and realize that this is a no-win game unless we do collaborate and make the best possible and just decisions to preserve the human species and the best of our civilization.
Action Step 3: Moving critical infrastructure also includes moving the world's artistic, architectural and cultural heritage from the global warming unsafe zones to the global warming safe zones for preservation as well. The best of our art, architecture, and cultures are also what makes us human and contain critical elements of our history that will help keep us sane going through this crisis.
Do not forget that the actions needed in this step can only successfully occur if the nations near, above or below the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south work together and highly cooperate with all other nations in the unsafe zones. If fear takes hold and they close or restrict borders and they do not cooperate, the conflicts and wars that will occur between the global warming unsafe zones and the global warming safe zones will end humanity in nuclear, biological and chemical warfare or the other toxic meltdown consequences described above far more certainly and far sooner than the later phases of the global warming emergency described in the Climageddon Scenario.
We really do need to begin transferring critical infrastructure and willing populations from high risks zones immediately. There is so much to transfer and/or build so that some of humanity and our civilization can go on.
There are several additional good reasons for using the least optimistic predictions for any backup plan as well as for recovery or long-term survival plans, they are:
2. The sudden, large-scale unpredictability that each additional crossed tipping point creates. (See this tipping point page or the tipping point chapter in Climageddon. Also, see the updated Climageddon Scenario details here.
3. We will be very, very lucky if the worst we get is anything close to only the IPCC’s current least optimistic consequence and timeframe projections! And,
4. You will probably lose your job and reputation as a mid to long-term planner if you fail to adequately plan for the new realities of the escalating global warming emergency.
(Please note that implementing the above essential backup plan also means that because we already have begun crossing critical global warming tipping points and will cross more soon, our local and regional business planners, city and zoning planners, long-term corporate and, governmental planners of all kinds must also begin radically restructuring their current 5, 10, 25 and 50-year plans, using the least optimistic and more honest climate prediction scenarios [found on this website here as well as in the new Climageddon book] for how and when the real consequences of escalating global warming will unfold. For example, in the San Francisco Bay Area, the headquarters of big tech corporations like Facebook, LinkedIn, and Apple, now have to readjust their long-term operational or relocation plans to deal with their low-lying international headquarters facing as much as 13 feet [3.9 meters] of sea level rise by 2100. This means that some of the billion-dollar high-tech Silicon Valley headquarters buildings will be experiencing first-floor flooding within as little as 20 to 30 years. [A worst case but far more realistic scenario of a 10-foot, 3-meter rise by 2050 was projected by James Hansen's newest research, with the additional 3-feet, 0.9 meters accounting for by coincident king tides and storm surges.)
There will be horrendous side effects as we radically reduce global fossil fuel use in the form of The Great Dying
Agriculture without fossil fuels for equipment, fertilizers, and pesticides will mean massive reductions in global food production. Initially, small organic farms will not be able to provide enough food for the world's current population much less the projected additional billions over the next 30 years. There also will be many other unforeseen and horrendous side effects and consequences from the rapid global transition off of fossil fuels.
There will be mass starvation when we rapidly come off our current fossil fuel empowered agricultural system. 50% or more of the human population could perish in the Great Dying and in the rocky transition from fossil fuel use to other substitutes.
Paradoxically, as we radically cut global fossil fuel use, we also may be finally creating the motivating conditions to get humanity to live within the limits of the carrying capacity of the earth. Ironically, the massive fossil fuel reductions may also teach us that infinite and continual growth economics is simply not possible in a finite space such as the earth.
No matter how bad the many side effects and consequences of the radical reduction in global fossil fuel use are, they will ultimately be far, far less destructive and less painful then the loss of most (if not all,) of humanity as well as our civilization.
Click here for Part 4 of the Job One Plan for radical new ideas on how we can get the very difficult must do survival critical actions of Part 3 of the Job One plan done. (Among other things Part 4 has been upgraded by adding religious leaders to the mix of individuals who can have a real influence upon our national politicians to compel them to make the critical government level changes described in Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
We will soon have a new downloadable PDF file that includes all 4 parts of the recently upgraded Job One Plan. We will notify all book purchasers, website subscribers, and members when it goes up. If you haven't subscribed to the website (at the bottom of every page on our website,) please do so now so that you get all of the new research, blog posts, newsletters, and updates.
The third biggest Climageddon book update
In Climageddon I was right about the carbon 425- 450 ppm last battle line for saving us from the worst of the later phases of the Climageddon Scenario. But, what I didn't tell you about was how to keep from crossing that final battle line which leads to our likely extinction in the form of what are the necessary fossil fuel use reductions.
To keep from crossing the carbon 425 to 450 ppm climate cliff the following is what we must do or we spiral toward likely extinction:
The absolute minimum total fossil fuel reductions that must occur to prevent the likelihood of going extinct within the next few decades are:
a. All industrially developed nations must reduce their total fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025 and then continue reducing fossil fuel use to net zero carbon emissions by 2035. Net carbon zero emissions in this solution means that no additional fossil fuel emissions are going into the atmosphere that are not also simultaneously being removed from the atmosphere by natural means. (Only about 20 countries produce 70% or more of the world's carbon emissions.)
Think of developed nations like most members of the G 20 group; Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, and India. (See technical note 1 near the end of this page for why China and India had to be included in the list of developed countries.)
b. All developing nations must maintain their total fossil fuel emission levels as they are at the beginning of 2019 and not allow them to go any higher. Then by 2045, all developing nations must also be at net zero carbon emissions. This allowance for developing nations to stay at the level they are now and gradually reduce down to net zero carbon emissions by 2045 is part of an essential justice and equity equation. The developed nations created their wealth by producing the far greatest majority of all carbon emissions in the atmosphere today, thus causing almost all of our current global warming emergency. (See technical note 2 near the end of this page for more about justice and equity allowances.)
This shockingly large and radical amount of fossil fuel use reduction is now needed because our past and current gradual and painless reductions are not even close to what is needed to get close to where we need to be at net zero carbon by 2035.
Among many other things which were not included, the fossil fuel reduction calculations above do not include carbon capture technology also known as negative emissions technology (NETs) or, as we like to call them, magical carbon sucking unicorns. This is because they have been factored into almost all other unreliable "authoritative" carbon reduction calculations. These false calculations were done by assuming that carbon capture technology will exist sometime after 2050 and will magically save us at the last minute.
Click here for the full story on these radical fossil fuel usage reductions including all of their qualifying factors. This is a major upgrade based on newer research from the book.
The fourth biggest Climageddon book update
Because of the harsh new realities of out of control global warming we also had to upgrade our mission. We had to drop the old mission focus of ending global warming. Our mission focuses now is how do we prevent global warming extinction. Because of our out of control global warming circumstance, all we can do now is slow it so that more people may survive, migrate and get the most critical infrastructure to the far north or far south. Click here to see the upgraded mission of Job One for Humanity.
Other Climageddon book modifications and corrections:
Numerous readers have sent me new information that challenges certain information that I presented in Climageddon. I read every one of these carefully and have them in a to-do list to review. Other than the corrections that are listed above, after my review of any reader challenges to the data, I will post any additional corrections needed for the book below.
It may take me a while to get to some of the informational challenges that have been raised by a few book readers due to ongoing book promotions, my work at Job One for Humanity and other backlogs, but I take them very seriously and I will get to every one of them and reply to the readers or critics who have sent me this information with what I discovered in relation to what they have presented.
Current book corrections:
The following is no longer true:
There also could be a survival-critical point where we will have to be open to the possibilities of any existing or new technology... Among many new technology possibilities, we may even have to use distasteful or disruptive stopgap measures on the way to restabilizing the climate, provided that we have a high certainty these temporary measures will not have even worse side effects! For example, fourth generation nuclear breeder reactors, if perfected, are supposed to use and burn the spent existing nuclear waste now being stored at great expense and risk. They will turn stored nuclear waste into a byproduct with a radioactive half-life of just 300 years instead of the average ~10,000 years for many kinds of existing nuclear reactor waste.
There is now no possible way to physically scale-up building enough new nuclear reactor energy generation capacity to replace ALL of global fossil fuel use in the amounts needed (mentioned above) and, in the time needed to save us from the worst consequences that will occur over the next 30-50 years.
In chapter 2 of Part 1 of Climageddon, in a section called How long carbon dioxide remains in our atmosphere, the following was stated:
Carbon dioxide is currently the most important greenhouse gas related to global warming. For the longest time, our scientists believed that once in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide remains there for about 100 years. New research shows that is not true. 75% of that carbon will not disappear for thousands of years. The other 25% stays forever. We are creating a serious global warming crisis that will last far longer than we ever thought possible.
"The lifetime of fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere is a few centuries, plus 25 percent that lasts essentially forever. The next time you fill your tank, reflect upon this...[the climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere will last longer than Stonehenge… Longer than time capsules, longer than nuclear waste, far longer than the age of human civilization so far." —“Carbon is forever,” Mason Inman ( Mason Inman. "Carbon is forever." Nature.com. November 20, 2008. http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0812/full/climate.2008.122.html)
It needs to be corrected in one sentence as follows:
“25% of that carbon will not disappear for thousands of years. In terms of a human lifespan, the rest stays virtually forever.”
The point that was being made is that the carbon we put in the air today will be the curse of those who come behind us for a very, very long time, and we need to take our ongoing carbon pollution far more seriously.
Additionally, how long carbon stays in the atmosphere is still an ongoing scientific discussion. Several long-term climate models, though their date details differ, all agree that anthropogenic CO2 takes an enormously long time to dissipate. If all recoverable fossil fuels were burned up using today's technologies, after 1,000 years passed, the air would still hold one third to half of the CO2 emissions. "For practical purposes, 500 to 1000 years is 'forever,'" as Hansen and his colleagues put it. In this time, civilizations can rise and fall, and the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could melt substantially, raising sea levels enough to transform the face of the planet. See also: http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0812/full/climate.2008.122.html
That's all the updates for now.
April 8, 2019
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