Is the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown Our Best Global Warming Extinction Model?

  "You cannot be called an alarmist if there really is something to be alarmed about." Unknown

Introduction

Climageddon is a new word that combines the words climate and Armageddon. Armageddon is the word that is often used to refer to any end-of-the-world scenario.

The Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown describes this end-of-the-world process and year-by-year consequence literal countdown that will occur within our lifetimes based on our current escalating global warming and our crossing additional global warming tipping points. It describes a detailed series of global warming consequences and catastrophes eventually resulting in a predictable massive global human die-off.  

We call this process the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown (CESC,) or for short the Climageddon Scenario (CS,) or the Climageddon Countdown (CC.)

The Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown describes a new global warming extinction process and prediction model to help individuals visualize the six distinct countdown phases and unfolding waves of escalating global warming consequences from today and until about 50-70 years from now which leads to the near-complete or complete extinction of humanity. But, this extinction process will only run its course if we go all the way into the 4th, 5th and 6th phases and we do not hit the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.

The Climageddon Scenario is composed of global warming's 20 major consequences and 11 key tipping points integrated into one inter-connected whole, and as one inter-dependent continually evolving set of climate, human, and biological processes and systems. It sequences and integrates the most important global warming consequences and global warming tipping points in a way that has never seen before helping the reader more fully visualize and understand an already unfolding end-of-world countdown and mass human extinction event.

WGhen thinking about the Climageddon extinction scenario, cataclysm is a truly appropriate term to use. This is because the currently unfolding global warming extinction process is happening shockingly fast when compared with the far longer geological time frames of hundreds of thousands to millions of years needed for earlier similar mass extinction events to unfold.

A good metaphor and short movie plot to help you understand the level of global warming destruction that is coming 

A very good metaphor and way to think about the 6 phase unfolding Climageddon Scenario (described below,) is to imagine numerous waves of larger and larger asteroids crashing into the earth over shorter and shorter periods of time between the next wave of asteroids. These waves of asteroids have already begun and will continue throughout at least the next 60 years. 

At first, the waves are made of smaller asteroids and the waves will be farther apart. In the early asteroid waves, the asteroid consequences will grow in a gradual and linear manner (like as in the first phase of the Climageddon Scenario.)

In later waves, the asteroids grow larger and larger and the waves grow closer and closer together in time. Unfortunately, in the later waves, the asteroid consequences will grow exponentially (like as in the mid to later phases of the Climageddon Scenario.)

Next, imagine that each new wave of even larger asteroids almost always hits the earth within the areas in the illustration below between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south. These would be the most asteroid-unsafe areas to live in.

And finally, imagine the largest and last wave of “planet killing” asteroids also hit the earth between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south. 

To help you envision what will likely happen during the natural processes of this unfolding asteroid cataclysm which also acts much like the unfolding 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario, it is useful to look to a 1998 Hollywood science fiction disaster film called Deep Impact. It depicted humanity’s combined efforts to prepare for and destroy a 7-mile (11 km) wide planet killer asteroid set to collide with Earth and cause a mass extinction. 

In this movie, to prevent the asteroid from reaching Earth, Russia and the United States send a spacecraft with nuclear weapons to destroy it before it reaches the critical minimal distance from Earth. The spaceship reaches the proper critical distance in time, but the nuclear weapons’ first attempt fails and instead splits the comet into two smaller masses, both still heading directly for Earth. 

After the U.S. President announces the failure to prevent the asteroid catastrophe, he declares martial law and reveals that in anticipation of this possible failure, governments worldwide have been secretly building underground shelters in what they believe will be the safest areas to ride out the impact. The U.S. government then conducts an emergency lottery and randomly selects 800,000 Americans under age 50. The government has also chosen 200,000 secretly pre-selected individuals to also enter the survival shelters bypassing the lottery. Not surprisingly, they are top government officials, top military brass, key scientists, and powerful corporate elites.

Around the world, the lucky and the pre-selected few go to the underground shelters, which also contain seeds for every species of plant, important viable animals, as well as massive food supplies for the would-be shelter survivors.

The first asteroid mass impacts Cape Hatteras in the Atlantic Ocean, causing a tsunami up to 3,500 feet (1,100 meters) high. The second mass is due to impact western Canada, creating a cloud of dust that will block out the sun for two years, killing all unsheltered life on Earth in a matter of weeks. 

At the last minute, the damaged spacecraft carrying the remaining nuclear weapons hits the larger second mass in a suicide mission, breaking it up so that most of it burns up in the atmosphere or misses the planet completely.

After the survivors finally come out of their shelters, the President speaks to a large crowd, telling them they've been blessed with a second chance to call Earth their home.

So here's what's important about this metaphor and its similarities to the unfolding Climageddon Scenario. In the preceding metaphor and story, the most obvious parallels to the escalating global warming emergency and the Climageddon Scenario are: 

1. Just as they do in the asteroid wave metaphor, our consequences will come faster and faster and grow larger and larger with each of the six Climageddon Scenario phases. (In the mid to later phases of the Climageddon Scenario our consequences will begin growing exponentially.)

2. As we move through the six phases of the Climageddon Scenario there will be many of the other unthinkable consequences that occur within our social, economic and political systems just as in the movie when humanity faces its end. Some of those are rare noble sacrifices, others widespread panic, chaos, looting, crime, cruelty, and loss of basic human rights.

2 As global warming consequences continue to worsen in the later phases of the Climageddon Scenario, governments will be forced to declare martial law, and there will be lotteries and secret pre-selection and quotas for who still will be able to move near or above the 45th parallel north or near or below the 45th parallel south to escape the chaos occurring within that middle zone a little longer. 

3. If we keep going as we are now without radically reducing global fossil fuel use and somehow survive the coming global warming consequences, most of humanity will die and there will have to be a massive, difficult, and costly rebuilding of civilization by the few remaining survivors if there are any survivors. 

As you continue to think about be information in this document, please keep in mind the Deep Impact end-of-the-world asteroid movie because its unfolding process is truly a good metaphor for how the Climageddon Scenario’s most serious consequences will also grow closer and closer together over time. Also, don't forget we still do have a small chance for humanity and civilization to survive, but only if we successfully reach the radical 2025 global fossil fuel reductions targets.

Who most needs to understand the Climageddon extinction scenario

Understanding the rapidly unfolding progression of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Countdown scenario is critical for every individual, business, or nation that wants to thrive or survive over the next 5, 10, 20, 30 or more years and takes planning for their or financial, physical and political future security seriously. 

Understanding the Climageddon Scenario is crucial information for anyone involved in:

  1. personal, financial or security short or mid- to long-range planning,

  2. city, corporate, or national mid- to long-range planning, 

  3. the threat, hazard, and business or insurance risk assessment, and
  4. planning, financing, or building mid- to long-term infrastructures such as highways, water treatment or sewage plants, power plants, power transfer stations, power lines, hospitals, government buildings, manufacturing facilities, distribution centers, military bases, corporate headquarters, real estate developments, and telecommunications facilities. 

A Quick Illustrated Overview of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario 

The Climageddon extinction scenario process illustrated just below will get you started and help you to understand global warming's many levels of processes as a holistic gestalt. A gestalt in holism is the idea that the properties and processes of natural systems and subsystems should also be viewed as having a synergy process and as an interconnected and unified whole, not simply as collections of, or summations of, separate and individual non-inter-dependent or inter-connected parts or actions.

Review the following Climageddon Scenario illustration starting from the bottom up! Starting from the bottom, this illustration reflects the unfolding natural progression of ever-worsening consequences and tipping point processes that will occur as global warming continues to escalate toward our extinction.

The top of the illustration below shows you the later Climageddon Scenario consequences the bottom shows you the earlier consequences. For now just get a general idea of all the global warming consequences, tipping points, and human system factors that will be interacting and colliding as the Climageddon extinction scenario unfolds in phases and waves. The illustration below will be explained in much more detail later in this document.

And finally:

1. Please keep in mind that the temperature, carbon ppm, and loss or cost levels for each of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario described below are not hard and rigid boundaries. They may be modified by future research.

2. ll temperature amounts in this document or any other document on our website are always displayed as the Celsius or Fahrenheit increase from preindustrial average global temperatures. 

3. The severity, frequency, and scale of the many consequences listed below will not always occur in a steadily increasing linear line, curve or pattern. There will be intermittent periods of relatively stable levels of consequences and EVEN periods of lessening consequences before the next phase and wave of consequences continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale to the next level.

What is the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown

It is far more than just a summary listing of the individual global warming consequences and tipping points. In its intertwined unfolding phases, it becomes easier to see the continually heat-intensified individual consequences and tipping points churning into something far more dangerous than just the individual summation of these things. Collectively, all of these moving parts of our global warming emergency synergize and accelerate the intensity and speed of the more deadly later stages of the Climageddon extinction scenario.

When you begin to see the Climageddon extinction scenario model as an integrated climate, human, and biological super system, you will discover:

  1. new critical relationships and processes occurring between the climate, human, and biological systems,

  2.  new qualifying and conditioning climate, human, and biological contexts, and finally,

  3. new phase-by-phase interactions and magnifying transformations of the interconnected and interdependent climate, human, and biological system consequences that will both suddenly and dramatically worsen our lives.

To help you get this "big picture" perspective, you will find many illustrations like the one below showing the major tipping points and other global warming consequences colliding with our financial, social and political systems, which in this illustration below could easily also lead to a nuclear or horrible regional war as we desperately compete over resources and very limited safer global warming areas.

 

Tipping_Points.png

 

The Climageddon Scenario was first discussed in the new book Climageddon. It is already taking place. And, if we do not take immediate action to radically cut fossil fuel use, it will fully unfold into humanity's near-total or total extinction.

"Because of its, scores of variables, complexity and constantly evolving and emerging new tipping points and synergies, one of the hardest things to grasp about the Climageddon extinction prediction model is that it is a unique viewing gestalt for our probable future relating to almost every level of our current existence." Lawrence Wollersheim

Assigning accurate risk evaluation levels to each the 6 phases of the Climageddon extinction scenario

To help you put into perspective the serious implications of the consequences unfolding at each level of the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario, we use three recognized risk, threat, and hazard alert scales.

Those three risk evaluation scales are:

1. The Torino Impact Hazard 0-10 Scale used to quantify the many risks and hazards of asteroids of different sizes hitting the earth.

2. The DEFCON 5-1 levels used by the U.S. government and military regarding preparedness for nuclear or conventional war. And,

3. The current US Homeland Security Advisory System

Here are the three risk analysis and how they are used to rate the six phases of the Climageddon Scenario:

1. The Torino Impact Hazard 0-10 Scale used to quantify the many risks and hazards of asteroids of different sizes hitting the earth. (The Torino Scale goes from 0 to 10, where a 0 rating is no hazard or threat and a 10 is “a collision is certain, capable of causing a global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean.”)

There is a good reason to use the Torino Impact Hazard Scale with the Climageddon Scenario. Depending upon what phase of the scenario we enter, how we adapt to the threat may be uncannily similar to how we might adapt to survive impacts of ever-increasing asteroid sizes hitting the earth in repeated waves.

For example, if we knew well in advance that a small, survivable asteroid would hit the earth, using the Torino scale threat level 3 advisories could provide enough time to relocate almost everyone from the local hazardous area of impact. If a larger but still survivable asteroid were to hit, once again using the Torino scale threat level 4 advisory, we could have time to relocate almost everyone from the larger regional area of impact.

Similar to these asteroid impact scenarios, as the escalating global warming emergency continues through the 6 Climageddon Scenario phases, it will also eventually force us to relocate first millions, then billions of people. We will relocate them first locally, then regionally, nationally, and eventually internationally to the far north or far south. But, we may be able to move only as much of the total human population as can survive in the poorer soils and shorter growing seasons of the northernmost and southernmost countries of the world (above the 45th parallel north to Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, Alaska, Iceland, and Greenland etc), and also below the 45th parallel south like some areas on south island of New Zealand or at the tip of South America.

2. The DEFCON 5-1 levels used by the U.S. government and military regarding preparedness for nuclear or conventional war. (The DEFCON rating system goes from 5 to 1. DEFCON 5 is normal peacetime military readiness, and 1 is the highest military alert, such as imminent nuclear war. As the climate continues to destabilize, at some point the nations of the world will have to declare emergency regulations and martial law to deal with the escalating crisis and the internal and external instability it creates. Using this scale is appropriate because if left unchecked, global warming will parallel and eventually exceed the destructiveness of all non-nuclear world wars.)

3. The current US Homeland Security Advisory System. (The Homeland Security Advisory System is a color-coded terrorism threat advisory scale. The different levels trigger specific actions by federal agencies and state and local governments, and they affect the level of security at some airports and other public facilities. Although this is a terrorist threat risk system, it is also useful for climate crises. In the mid-to-later phases of the Climageddon Scenario, as our political, economic, and social systems break down, the nations of the world will react similarly to how they would react to a high-level terrorist threat or an actual attack. Martial law and other restrictive emergency measures with curfews, new regulations, loss of civil rights, and normal legal protections will be enacted.)

There are also Other "outside" challenges and context factors that will interact directly or indirectly to worsen the MAIN consequences described in the Climageddon Scenario below

The Climageddon Scenario global warming extinction model does not take place in a vacuum. It takes place in a global context in which other major global challenges and consequences are already occurring and increasing.

These 6 other major global challenges and consequences will directly or indirectly interact with and collide into the unfolding 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario global warming extinction model. These additional Climageddon Scenario interactions with the global challenges below will, unfortunately, make our lives and the other global warming consequences much worse. 

Please keep the following other contextualizing and evolving global challenges in mind as you read the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario:

Global Challenge 1: Overpopulation, the Earth may have only the resource carrying capacity for about 2 billion people or less. (Please click the brief carrying capacity link and the brief overshoot link for a full understanding on why this overpopulation challenge is so bad.)

We are near 8 billion people racing to 9.4 billion by or before 2050. We are way over sustainable population levels and future and current generations will suffer dearly because we failed to manage ourselves in this area by itself.

Global Challenge 2: Resource depletion fueled by overpopulation, toxic pollution, and escalating global warming.

We already have increasing food shortages (1 billion people are hungry.) Ocean fish stocks are already suffering from catastrophic losses from pollution and overfishing. We are rapidly depleting our many kinds of quantity-limited, nonrenewable, and even renewable resources to unsustainable levels. This resource depletion also increases global poverty by making those essential resources more expensive.

To make matters worse, many of our current key resources will run out at nearly the same time! Paradoxical to making the necessary fossil fuel reductions and moving to green energy generation, we will also soon be facing fossil fuel shortages caused by the early attainment of peak oil.

Global Challenge 3: Global economic instability.

There is no doubt that the mix of the Climageddon Scenario consequences will increase the already existing global poverty, economic instability, economic inequality (conflicts between rich and poor) and rising national deficits. Imagine a global financial depression or crisis occurring as we also try to solve the global warming emergency and all of our other global challenges at the same time. In the next global financial crisis or global depression, there will be even less resiliency and fewer resources to solve all of these challenges.

Global Challenge 4: Political instability first in countries with low management capabilities or low resource resilience or high deficits.

Many nations of the world are weaker than we are allowing ourselves to realize. Global warming and these other global challenges will greatly increase political instability which acts to further increase the likelihood of more wars, terrorism, and political injustice in all low, medium, and high resilience nations. This global challenge plus escalating global warming and the other global challenges will create sudden and massive migrations of millions then billions of people that even the richest nations will not be able to absorb.

Global Challenge 5: Global Pandemic.

As all of the above 4 resilience-reducing global challenges get worse and the earth warms, this increases the probability of a global pandemic which is not caused by the global warming pandemic enhancing consequence of melting tundra and permafrost. This is specifically a separate high risk due to existing or new diseases being poorly treated, the mobility and migration of world populations and the overall deterioration of global health services as the stew of all of the global challenges listed above come to a global warming amplified boil.

Global Challenge 6: Failing to evolve a single global government with legislative, judicial, and enforceable executive powers.

If you think about it carefully, you will discover that this last and most often invisible global challenge IS itself the single biggest reason and core structural cause for why our main global challenges including global warming have not yet been resolved. The lack of the existence of a single global government with legislative, judicial and executive verification, enforcement and punishment powers having common global laws allows humanity's biggest global challenges to either:

a. exist at all,

b. continue to exist or,

c. to remain perpetually unresolved and/or,

d. continually worsening as many of them are now.

In other words, the mere absence of a true global government of itself alone acts to facilitate, escalate and enable all of the global challenges that we currently face. 

What we are facing with the above other 6 global challenges (above) interacting with the 7th global challenge (global warming and its Climageddon Scenario below,) is certain to become the greatest convergence of catastrophes and cataclysms in human history. For an amazing video by a famous English university professor with wonderful illustrations that explain most of the above global 6 challenges and the coming Great Convergence of catastrophes and cataclysms please click here.

Now that you have a better idea of the highly volatile and dangerous context in which the following Climageddon Scenario global warming extinction model is occurring, you are now ready to review its 6 phases and the consequences and time tables for each phase.

Some additional tools will help you better understand the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown and the following 6 phases sections

In the following detailed descriptions and consequence timetables for the Climageddon Scenario's 6 phases, you will learn what you need to know to protect your family, finances, business, and nation. But, to get the most out of what you are about to read, if you have not done so already, you will need a basic understanding of the following:

a. what global warming is,

b. what are its 20 worst consequences,

c. how it's 11 major tipping points create climate and human system crashes and collapses,

d. what complex adaptive systems are, and 

e. a basic understanding of systems theory with its positive feedback loops and strange or counterintuitive characteristics such as nonlinear responses.

Although you will be able to understand much of the Climageddon Scenario without reading and understanding a-e above, it will be more difficult for you to see how most of the consequences within each of the 6 Climageddon phases will synergetically multiply, accelerate and magnify each other and more importantly, accelerate the arrival of the next Climageddon Scenario phase.

If you are unfamiliar with a-e above, as needed here are the well-illustrated and written documents that will give you that basic understanding:

1. click here first to learn about global warming basics and then next continue to

2. read about the 20 worst consequences of global warming and then next to

3. read about the 11 key tipping global warming points. (This critical section covers the basics of positive feedback loops, complex adaptive systems, systems theory, and things like nonlinear responses.) 

We have made this unfortunately very complex Climageddon extinction model as simple as possible with lots of additional illustrations as you will soon see, but if you do not understand the basics listed above, it will be difficult for you to see how the following layers and levels of phase-by-phase sequenced Climageddon consequences fit together to create our current extinction emergency within our lifetimes. 

Here are the 6 phases of the Climageddon Countdown Extinction Scenario illustrated and in detail

The next section which describes the 6 phases of the Climageddon Countdown Extinction Scenario described in detail. It also contains many illustrations and charts (like the one below) as well as detailed, decade-by-decade global warming consequence information that was difficult and expensive for our organization to acquire.

This detailed information is invaluable is to any individual, business or nation attempting to plan for how the escalating global warming emergency will directly affect their future life quality, finances and security. This next section on the detailed consequences for each of the 6 phases is contained only in the Member's section of this website on this page Climageddon Scenario Consequence Timetables. Much of it is not found in the Climageddon book.

Only members can see this critically important regularly updated information.

If you are a member and you are logged in, click the Members link on the top menu bar on the far right side of the page. Then click the link called Climageddon Scenario Consequence Timetables.

If you are not already a member, you also can see this critical information and the rest of this Climagageddon Scenario document by becoming a member by clicking here.)

 

 


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  • Lawrence Wollershein
    commented 2018-04-13 16:32:02 -0700
    Hi David,

    Thanks for your kind words about my book. If you get a chance, would you review it at Amazon. All you have to do is search the book title and follow the instructions and it will give you an opportunity to write a review.

    Also regarding your comments I will look up my original research regarding page 156 hopefully in the next week or two and then post any corrections as needed at this location: http://www.joboneforhumanity.org/climageddon_book_support_navigation_center

    And, I will notify you by private mail if a correction update is necessary.

    Best,

    Lawrence
  • David de Cleene
    commented 2018-04-12 14:19:10 -0700
    Hi,
    First of all I would like to congratulate you on your book. At last we have a person with the critical level of morality to see and tell the truth. I’ve bought your book and read it all and was relieved to finally read a book that could understand the science and the politics, and report the true state of emergency we’re in regarding climate change.

    I would like to fact check one thing though. On page 156 you have a graph detailing the mass extinctions of the past and the Climageddon scenario. It shows that there have been a few times that the percentage of species extinction has reached over 75% historically, with the End-Permian extinction close to 95%. However, all my research holds the consensus that these extinction rates were nearly half this, being around 40% with the End-Permian extinction around 50%. Would you please tell me where or how you got your information regarding this graph. Many thanks and keep up the great work. Every person has a purpose!