Last Updated 9.26.25. (G)

Job One for Humanity published this article. Job One is a nonprofit climate change think tank and risk assessment organization founded in 2008. It is nonpartisan, 100% publicly funded, and uncensored by any government or corporation.  

Our most current climate change forecasts are always found on this page. Why our climate change forecasts are different, worse, or more accurate than those being given to you by your government, the media, or the UN IPCC is on this page.

Here are the seven biggest takeaways from this page

1. 1. There has been a many-decades-long, well-funded global fossil fuel cartel disinformation campaign that intentionally misinforms the public and government policymakers by shaping their views to significantly underestimate the consequences, timeframes, and solutions of climate change. This is done through the surreptitious influence on the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) major reports. (The IPCC is the recognized world authority on climate change. It provides climate change summary reports and forecasts relied upon by governments, corporations, and the media.)

   2. Core UN IPCC consequence and timetable forecasts, as well as global fossil fuel reduction targets, in many cases are underestimated by as much as ~30–60% (e.g., Arctic summer ice timing, sea-level rise), illustrating major discrepancies. (The nine major "errors" and causes for the IPCC's 30-60% underestimation issue are described fully on this page and its linked pages.)

   3. Drivers for this cumulative and synergetic 30-60% underestimation include: (a) using too-low of a climate sensitivity calculation (≈3 used vs ≈4.5–6.) (Please see this page which explains the current climate sensititiy controversy.) ; (b) “Perfect Day” modeling that omits many compounding climate change factors; (c) weak to no inclusion of many tipping points/feedbacks and non linear climate reactions; (d) understated methane effects; (e) neglect of weakening carbon sinks; (f) neglect of economic coupling effects (Garrett) and (g) “cooked books” (counting speculative and unproven future carbon removal technology targets and success into calculations for today’s carbon reduction budgets).

   4. The IPCC’s climate consequences, targets, timelines, and solutions, as stated by governments and global media, “should not be relied upon as stated” without a generalized discounting in many cases for as much as 30–60% for all planning and remedial actions surrounding any climate change consequence, timetable, risk assessment, or solution.

   5. The IPCC’s summaries are also politically negotiated—edited line by line by governmental bureaucrats and representatives—with inherent conflicts of interest for fossil-fuel-producing, income-dependent states, which also leads to the conclusions that these reports are politically further watered down or incorrect.

   6. The IPCC's ongoing underestimation crisis suppresses critical public urgency and demand for a real climate change solution. It also leaves society grossly unprepared for the most severe climate change consequences that will arrive many decades earlier than the current IPCC's significant underestimation predicts. This climate danger unawareness and unpreparedness will push much of humanity toward widespread climate change-related disaster, catastrophe, and collapse, and even toward a credible risk of mass to near-total extinction.

   7. The paper calls for far more aggressive global fossil fuel reduction action than existing incorrect international “net-zero” pledges (e.g., ~75% in total global fossil-fuel cuts by 2025), the adoption of alternative action plans, and holding the fossil-fuel cartel financially and legally responsible for ALL climate change damage. 

Please note: Some climate change factors operate entirely independently of other climate change factors or the nine IPCC calculation errors listed further below, and consequently those factors may not fit within the IPCC underestimation factor of as much as 30 -60% for many of their forecast items. 

Prologue

We have chosen a powerful title for this article, and we believe it is well-deserved. To suggest a hidden agenda and a conspiracy of ongoing climate change data underestimation may be present, it is wise to first understand the definition of a conspiracy.

According to the dictionary, a conspiracy is:

"a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful."

On this page and other website pages linked on this page, we intend to demonstrate to you that there is a hidden agenda by a well-financed group designed to:

a. prevent governments, politicians, and world citizens from knowing the correct climate change consequences and their timetables.

b. Prevent or slow the transition to green energy generation and away from fossil fuel energy generation.

c. Grossly underestimate the targets for the reduction of existing fossil fuel use, grossly underestimate the severity of coming climate change consequences, and grossly underestimate the timeframes of coming severe climate change consequences.

d. Manipulate the global media and politicians to spread climate change, disinformation, and misinformation that would prevent or slow any actions that would reduce global fossil fuel use.

e. Compromise the independent scientific integrity and analysis of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) summary reports. The IPCC is broadly recognized as the world's leading authority on climate change. Their summary reports are utilized by governments, companies, and individuals worldwide to inform planning for climate change.

We believe, based on the information on this page and linked pages to it, that among many other things, you too, will discover serious IPCC errors, omissions, "cooked books" calculations, and other mostly hidden methods that facilitate the ongoing gross underestimation of climate change severity, timelines, and the critical required global reductions in fossil fuel use needed to save humanity from widespread global collapse and mass extinction by around 2050.

We don't expect you to believe what we are saying about a global climate change hidden agenda and conspiracy to grossly underestimate climate chage consequences and timetables solely because we are saying it. We want you to make up your own mind, and we have provided extensive proof below to help you do so.

After reading this article, here are the two biggest things to decide for yourself:

1.  Regarding climate change consequences and timetables, have you been and are you still being systematically lied to by your government, the global media, and the administrators of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for decades?  

Were you specifically lied to about:

a. How bad climate change currently is because of the IPCC's gross underestimation.

b. How bad climate change will get because of the IPCC's gross underestimation.

c. How soon will the worst and most cataclysmic consequences of climate change will arrive because of the IPCC's gross underestimation? 

d. The real global fossil fuel reduction targets we must achieve to prevent a global climate catastrophe, again, directly because of the IPCC's gross underestimation.

2. Does a systemic five-decades-long global disinformation, misinformation, and undue influence campaign by the global fossil fuel cartel rise to the level of a harmful and illegal global conspiracy?

We believe that after all reading the climate change underestimation facts in this article, which only a small number of researchers and activists know, you too will share our perspective that when all the following evidence (and on the subpages of this article) are viewed cumulatively and synergistically, one will rationally come to the conclusion that there exists a preponderance of evidence pointing to secret ongoing, active, and intentional global hidden agenda and conspiracy designed to keep most of humanity in the dark about accurate climate change facts, the the real timetable of our cataclysmic climate change future ahead, and honest climate change solutions.

When all of the facts are reviewed accumulatively and synergistically we believe that you too will see that many of the UNIPC climate change consequences timetables and fossil fuel reduction targets may be underestimated by as much as 30 to 60%.

We will also leave it to you to decide what the various motivations, purposes, or advantages are that those who are executing this climate change hidden agenda conspiracy of disinformation. We believe that the facts below are so overwhelming that it will be impossible for you to view the currently promoted grossly underestimated climate change consequences, timeframes, and solutions as innocent, accidental, or unintentional.

This article, along with its subpages, will also help you understand why, over the last 60 years, there has literally been no real progress in reducing climate change by effectively limiting or reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.

(Please also note that when you hold your cursor over the link to this page, numerous and critical proof sub-links will also unfold. These cursor-activated sublinks cover most of the eight primary reasons we are now in an accelerating climate change emergency. We strongly recommend that you also read each subpage linked to this page after completing this page.)

Introduction

This article presents a substantial body of evidence detailing why the public lacks an understanding of the actual threat and severity of the climate change emergency. Because the public does not understand the genuine threat and severity of the climate change emergency, it cannot demand the critical reductions in global fossil fuel use required to save itself from horrendous financial loss, suffering, and widespread human extinction. 

This page provides a detailed explanation of why the world's largest governments, intelligence agencies, investment banks, risk analysis firms, and insurance companies are significantly underestimating the severity, frequency, scale, and timeframes of major global climate change consequences in the public domain. Privately, the entities mentioned above, who also possess the information below from their risk analysis, firms, or intelligence agencies, are secretly preparing themselves to survive what is to come.

This public gross underestimation (which we estimate amount to a about 30-60% error or underestimation of climate change consequences, timetables, and solutions) will cause widespread global climate change catastrophe after catastrophe, not to mention the highly predictable and horrendous global financial losses that could have been avoided if you and the general public had the uncensored, accurate climate change analysis on this website.

There are even nonprofits and NGOs involved in climate and environmental education, unintentionally spreading false climate change information that they are receiving from the UN's IPCC and other compromised information sources. Hopefully, once these NGO and nonprofit executives read this article, they will stop spreading inaccurate climate change information.) 

Below, we will provide a brief overview of the major errors and underestimation problems in climate change information that governments and the media present to the world about climate change and our future. 

To have a possible conspiracy, one must have a conspirator. Let's begin by examining what is being censored regarding climate change consequences, timeframes, solutions, and, more importantly, who is responsible for the global censorship of accurate and critical climate change facts.

We believe that the overwhelming evidence points to the global fossil fuel cartel as being the prime conspirator, preventing climate change from being resolved over the last 60+ years through the use of disinformation, misinformation, and other techniques of undue and unethical influence. We also believe that if you are in a conspiracy and the actions of your conspiracy cause harm, then you are overwhelmingly responsible for paying for any and all damages that the conspiracy caused.

With that in mind, let's dive a little deeper. Here are the basics you should know to get started:

1. Over the last six decades, the 30 trillion dollar-a-year fossil fuel industry and its lobbyists have subjected the world's politicians to the most potent disinformation, misinformation, and undue influence campaign in history. (Their disinformation and influence programs were designed to prevent accurate climate change threat assessments and limit any regulations that would reduce global fossil fuel use.

2. It also may shock you to hear that the global fossil fuel cartel's billion-dollar disinformation campaigns, undue influence of our politicians, and misinformation from false research given to our governments and the media, has made our current climate change emergency far more difficult to resolve because of the global fossil fuel cartel's targeted undue influence over the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations (the IPCC). 

This is bad for the world because the IPCC is treated as the world's leading authority on climate change, and the IPCC's regular summary climate reports are used by every government and the world's media to set government climate change policy and tell a highly censored and underestimated climate change story to the world by the media. We focus in this article on the ongoing gross underestimation, errors, censorship, and politicization of climate science by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations, which we hold has been caused by the undue influence and other unethical tactics of the global fossil fuel cartel on the IPCC. 

First things first. Let's talk about the prime and continuous conspirator

The following cartel information provides the broader framing and context to understand how our current climate change emergency was created and is being maintained. It is helpful to cover some history that everyone already knows to be true. Open your mind and begin to see the hidden and invisible forces that shape and distort the climate change information you receive. The global cigarette industry has a proven record of many decades of successful political lobbying, misinformation, disinformation, false cigarette health risk studies, and funding of "independent" think tanks to produce questionable research saying smoking was not dangerous. The cigarette industry also has a record of engaging in many undue influence and regulation-delaying tactics. 

Like the cigarette industry's tactics, the far better-funded global fossil fuel cartel's disinformation and regulation-delaying practices have successfully kept honest climate change facts and solutions from you, our governments, the media, and humanity for over six decades! Does that statement seem exaggerated or not possible? Remember, for many decades, the global cigarette industry convinced the world's politicians and citizens that cigarettes did not cause lung cancer, health problems, or death, with only a fraction of the worldwide fossil fuel cartel's 28 trillion dollar-a-year mega-income and resources. Because of the fossil fuel cartel's copycat and super-funded mass disinformation and regulation-distorting tactics, they, too, have avoided the required global fossil fuel reductions and regulations for at least six decades. 

Here is why the global fossil fuel cartel is doing this. If the world's citizens knew the actual facts about climate change and understood that they had been deliberately deceived for decades, they would angrily demand that their politicians radically reduce global fossil fuel use immediately. And this would be very bad for the worldwide fossil fuel cartel's profits.

It is bitterly painful when you finally realize the global fossil fuel cartel is entirely willing to sacrifice the lives of billions of people and their children to satisfy their unquenchable and seemingly unstoppable greed for more profit (more super-yachts, more palaces, and more exotic sports cars, etc.

Click here to read our full article on fossil fuel disinformation and other dirty tricks keeping the world in the dark about the real dangers and solutions of climate change.

If you still think what we say about the global fossil fuel cartel distorting, censoring, and unduly influencing our governments, the media, and the climate summary work and climate solutions of the UN's IPCC is untrue, click here to see the hundreds of well-documented articles on the DESMOG website about the many ways and tactics the global fossil fuel cartel uses to ensure that our governments, the media, the United Nations, and the world's citizens do not ever demand reduced global fossil fuel use to the required levels.

The global fossil fuel cartel is brilliantly smart. They have the money to hire the best and brightest minds on the planet to achieve their twisted goal. Accordingly, one of their first and most important targets would be the UN's IPCC.

The IPCC has been so corrupted by members of the global fossil fuel cartel, and the consequences of climate change calculation problems are so severe and urgent that the IPCC must also be called out for them. Therefore, in addition to criticizing the UN's IPCC for its numerous errors and underestimations, as described in detail below, it is essential to first strongly expose the hidden hand behind the IPCC: the global fossil fuel cartel.

As you read the many gross problems with the IPCC's summary reports, never forget that the global fossil fuel cartel is the dominant, hidden, invisible hand that censors, distorts, underestimates, and unduly influences the climate change information you receive from from the IPCC through your government, the media, and inadvertently even through most nonprofit organizations and NGO's trying to educate about climate change.

60 years of how and why our governments have failed to fix the climate change emergency, and the underestimation of correct consequences, solutions, and timetables is in the 30% to 60% range

This article will also examine the eight most significant data reliability issues in the IPCC's climate summary reports. (The eight items listed below are expanded later in the article with links to expanded details and verification.) In this article, you will also discover the truth of our government's utter failure to act over the last 60+ years and the horrible climate consequences of that inaction and ineffective action.

While reading these IPCC problems below, do not forget to consider the invisible hand of the global fossil fuel cartel somewhere behind the scenes in almost every issue. They cleverly manipulate, distort, or deny accurate climate data to protect their profits, related industries, or national income sources. Also, do not forget that the IPCC is the single most relied-upon authoritative source of climate change information for all world governments and the world's media. The global fossil fuel cartel has learned that if you can successfully manipulate, distort, or water down all of the IPCC's summary climate data distributed to the world, you can control what the world believes about the climate change emergency to your profitable advantage.

Here are the IPCC's biggest climate summary reports' reliability problems

We have arranged these calculation-related problems in the order of which problems will cause the greatest underestimation of the severity of climate change consequences, the timeframe of climate change consequences, or the solutions to climate change, as well as the requirements for reducing global fossil fuel use. Each of the problems below also contains a link to a much more detailed description of how that problem affects the accuracy or underestimation of climate change consequences, timetables, and solutions.

Although no single calculation "error" problem below accounts for all of the IPCCC's whole 30 to 60% underestimation issue, when they are added together cumulatively, and they are viewed in an interconnected and synergetic relationship to each other, and where one error in a calculation listed below passes over into other calculations, the IPCC gross underestimation problem compounds and not in a good way.

Review all nine IPCC calculation problems below and then also carefully consider the cumulative and synergistic effects of these errors, which impact various levels and types of climate change consequences, influencing the accuracy of future climate change predictions, their time frames, and effective solutions to climate change. Having many to most of the most critical consequences, timeframes, and solution calculations off by as much as 30-60% is a MAJOR problem for the future of humanity preparing for the coming climate castrophes, not to mention the governments, banking and investment institutions, and mega-corporations of the world that must plan for an environment, worsening at a far faster pace than they are being told.

We believe that when you consider all nine problems below, both cumulatively and synergistically, you will agree that our calculation, which suggests that much of the IPCC's critical climate change information is underestimated by 30 to 60%, is both reasonable and rationally defensible.

Problem 1: All current IPCC climate predictions contain a critical and MAJOR error in the correct measurement of climate sensitivity. This error alone will reduce the accuracy of many parts of the IPCC climate summary reports by 30-60% or more. This may be the single most significant and damaging error by the IPCC.

The IPCC has been using a constant of 3 for the climate sensitivity constant in relevant climate calculations for decades. Almost all equations for calculating consequence severity, time frames, and climate change solutions for reducing global fossil fuel use are based, in part or mainly, on the calculation of the climate sensitivity constant. The accuracy of each of those critical climate calculations, in turn, relies on having and using the correct climate sensitivity constant.

Unfortunately, the actual climate sensitivity constant is not 3, but 4.5, and possibly even as high as 6.

Basic math tells us that when any equation uses an incorrect constant (a 3 that should actually be 4.5 or a 6), it means that --- that equation's results will be wrong. Additionally, the results of any subsequent calculation that uses the previous incorrect climate sensitivity equation in some new way will also be wrong. 

Because the climate sensitivity equation is common to many calculations involving the prediction of climate consequences, their timelines, and the correct global fossil fuel reductions, the IPCC's incorrect climate sensitivity constant creates a significant underestimation issue.

For example, the actual correct current climate sensitivity is 4.5, whereas the IPCC still uses 3 as its climate sensitivity constant in its critical calculations. This means that all IPPC calculations that depend on the climate sensitivity constant of 3 alone could have an error level of up to 28% when 3 is used instead of the currently correct value of 4.5.

Again, if the current climate sensitivity is actually six, rather than three, you would have a 71% error in the many applicable climate sensitivity constant-dependent calculations.

Here's the bad news. The IPCC continues to use three for the climate sensitivity, despite abundant newer research showing that 3 is far too low for current conditions. It means that the severity of climate change consequences will be much worse than what is currently stated, and worst of all, the timelines will be decades sooner than the many far-distant predictions of the IPCC. This means humanity will not be remotely prepared for the severity of the consequences of accelerating climate change.

All of the needed climate sensitivity science is in the articles below:

1. Here is our older article on the climate sensitivity problem. It helps explain, with numerous illustrations, why this error is so critical to our future climate change. It really helps to explain the climate sensitivity issue to a more general audience before you dive into James Hansen's study in number two below.

2. For James Hansen's newest article on climate sensitivity problems, click here. (James Hansen is a world-famous former NASA climate scientist who was one of the first scientists to help the world understand the dangers of climate change.)

3. For our recent blog article discussing the importance of this significant climate sensitivity calculation problem, click here.

Problem 2: The IPCC faces a significant "Perfect Day" issue with its computer climate modeling. This "Perfect Day" modeling problem of itself will also significantly lower the accuracy of the IPCC's consequence predictions, timetables, and fossil fuel reduction targets by at least 10% to possibly as much as 30%, depending upon which tipping points, feedback, loops, or nonlinear reactions within which climate system or subsystem are triggered.

Please see the detailed Perfect Day Problem article, which describes in detail ALL of the tipping points, feedback loops, and nonlinear reactions within critical climate change systems and subsystems that are currently excluded from the IPCC's climate change computer modeling, projections, and risk analysis. This page also includes other Perfect Day computer modeling problems. It is impossible to get usefully accurate and reasonable climate change projections if you are systematically excluding many of the most important climate change tipping points, feedback, loops, and nonlinear reactions

Problem 3: The IPCC's calculations for the amount of fossil fuel use that must be reduced globally each year to prevent widespread climate change catastrophe and mass extinction also do not include calculations for the effects of crossing most critical climate tipping points, feedback loops, and nonlinear reactions. The IPCC has repeatedly failed to adjust and adequately compensate for this gross failure in its climate consequence predictions and targets for accurate global fossil fuel reduction targets.

(Please see this detailed article on the Climageddon Feedback loop scenario, which describes in even more detail concerning climate change tipping points, feedback loops, and nonlinear reactions that are also almost totally excluded in current climate change computer modeling and risk analysis, as well as the Perfect Day computer modeling.)

These errors could alone again further reduce the accuracy of the amount of global fossil fuel reductions the world needs to make by 10-30% or more.

Problem 4: The IPCC's calculations for quantifying methane's short and long-term effects on global warming are also seriously underestimated and flawed. Methane is about 80 times more potent than carbon in increasing global atmospheric temperatures over the first three years. 

The IPCC does not adequately include the effects of these three-year methane surges in its predictions. It also fails to predict rising methane levels from natural and artificial sources sufficiently, nor does it capture all of the consequences of the surge of new methane and total methane in the atmosphere. Failing to adequately account for all methane effects on global heating alone could further reduce the accuracy of IPCC climate summary reports by as much as 5-32%. 

Problem 5: The IPCC does not adequately include the critical and increasing decline in carbon sinks in its current computer modeling. The condition of our global carbon sinks is vital to our future survival. As global heating rises, the oceans, soils, and forests remove less carbon from the atmosphere. However, when they reach their internal tipping points, the oceans, soils, and forests reverse the benefits they were providing and release the carbon they had removed and stored back into the atmosphere. When that happens, global warming temperatures will soar far faster than we are currently predicting. This omission alone could reduce the accuracy of IPCC climate summary reports by as much as 10-15%. 

Problem 6: In addition to the many Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) errors above, a physics professor, by the name of Tom Garrett, also turned his new fossil fuel reduction prediction model on the IPCC’s global warming predictions and discovered two major errors. His work, known as Garrett's Climate Change Dilemma, is an IPCC-challenging study that is described in full on this page.

He demonstrated that the IPCC’s current global warming prediction scenarios substantially underestimate the rise in carbon dioxide levels for a given level of future economic prosperity and wealth. The two reasons for the IPCC errors are that global carbon dioxide emissions cannot be unlinked from economic production and wealth creation through any efficiency gains the IPCC uses, and our continuous future global warming can be expected to act as a significant inflationary drag on the real growth of wealth. Because neither of these two essential economic factors was properly accounted for in previous IPCC prediction scenarios, the IPCC has, once again, substantially underestimated the relationship between projected future increased prosperity and increased carbon dioxide levels. By forwarding this rosy and false belief that economic prosperity can be maintained while dramatically reducing fossil fuel use, it seems the IPCC was trying to “have its cake and eat it too.” These serious miscalculations by the IPCC mean their predictions are even more unreliable than has been disclosed on this website (and in Chapter 7 of the new Climageddon book). This also means that most of the world is unaware of the severity of the current global warming emergency, or that solving it will require a massive global economic downturn.

This IPCC omission error hides from the public the true challenges of reducing global fossil fuel use and its severe consequences.

Problem 7: The IPCC has "cooked" the global fossil fuel reduction books. They significantly lowered the current IPCC global fossil fuel reduction calculations, far below what they should be. The IPPC included carbon reduction calculations from an unproven and non-existent carbon removal technology into their current fossil fuel reduction calculations. The IPCC theorized (and hoped) that by 2050, this new technology would exist, remove millions of gigatons of carbon from the atmosphere, and miraculously save humanity at the last minute. 

This massive "wishing for a miracle" error leads the global public to believe we are making progress and are safe when, in fact, we are in grave danger. We estimate that this "backing-in" of unrealized future fuel reduction calculations from mid-century non-existent technology into today's reduction calculations underestimates the IPCC's current fossil fuel reduction targets by as much 30-60 % or more, as it relates directly to setting the correct global fossil fuel reduction targets. 

Problem 8: The IPCC also promotes a net-zero national pledge program based on incorrect global fossil fuel reduction targets. Furthermore, this net-zero pledge program has little hope of success, despite being based on the wrong, far easier to achieve global fossil fuel reduction targets. The IPCC's calculations for the amount of fossil fuel use that must be reduced globally each year to prevent global climate catastrophe and mass extinction did not include calculations for controlling the effects of crossing most critical climate change tipping points and feedback loops. 

Problem 9: High-level IPCC administrators create semi-regular IPCC summary reports on the climate that continue to alter and grossly underestimate the underlying climate science provided by climate scientists worldwide. They do this because of political pressure and the hidden hand of the global fossil fuel cartel lobby. As a result, these high-level administrator-altered and watered-down distortions and errors can selectively reduce the accuracy of critical parts of their climate summary reports by up to 15-20% or more.

The precise cause and nature of the decades of extreme political pressure mentioned in this problem are explained in a must-read article. It describes the real cause of climate change, the political pressure behind the intentional IPCC distortions and miscalculations, and many other problems described on this page. (Click here to read about who's behind the political pressure and who is financially responsible for climate change damages.)

The total cumulative and synergistic effects from all of the above nine often interdependent calculation problems, when applied to the IPCC's climate change consequences, timeframe, and fossil fuel reduction solution projections and predictions, are mathematically and rationally defensible to occur in many of the UN IPCC calculations within the 30 to 60% underestimation range.

The above nine factors also indicate that even the most dire and alarming of the IPCC's climate change projections in AR6 are also likely 30 to 60% underestimated. For example, many climate consequences predicted in the worst case scenario of AR6 are already being exceeded by significant amounts or arriving significantly sooner.

This means that humanity will be dealing with as much as 30 to 60% more severe climate change consequences occurring as much as 30 to 60% sooner than we are being told, and that the climate change solutions and their deadlines for global fossil fuel reduction are also as much as 30 to 60% too little and too late. This should appropriately terrify any rational adult who wants to have a future for themselves, their children, and future generations.

In addition to the above problems, it is worth noting that the 2025 Trump administration initiated an extensive program to remove climate change information from the government's websites. Worse yet, it has also begun the process of defunding government organizations that monitor and record the monthly and annual rise of global greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere.

That is, really, really bad climate change news because whenever a government starts hiding critical information from its citizens, and then goes even further to stop the recording of information essential to the survival of those citizens. It means you have entered the world of Orwell's 1984, where facts about past or current actual reality must align with a particular political philosophy.

A likely reason the Trump administration is going to these extreme steps, promoting climate denial and climate facts erasure, is that their constituents are seeing one climate change record, broken after another, faster and faster. Only a complete blackout of all climate information might keep the US citizens from realizing they are in an accelerating climate change emergency that will lead to massive, ever-larger catastrophes. 

What does most of the above means or implies about the IPCC and IPCC consequence predictions and timetable predictions?

1. Because of the cumulative effect of the IPCC's underestimation, calculation problems, political interference, or other errors, the IPCC's climate summary reports can no longer be relied upon to present real global heating threats and risk levels. They are generally between 30 and 60% incorrect or under their estimated!

2. The IPCC has repeatedly failed to adequately acknowledge these reliability problems and failures (including all known climate tipping points, feedback loops, diminishing carbon sinks, and other serious error factors) in its predictions of climate consequence severity and timeframe, as well as its targets for accurate global reductions of fossil fuels.

3. Consequently, the IPCC has repeatedly failed to adjust for or adequately compensate for underestimation, calculation problems, or other errors in its climate summary reports, which are used worldwide to plan remedial strategies and determine current climate catastrophe risk levels.

4. While the above eight problems do not bring up the global fossil fuel cartels' disinformation, perverse lobbying, and other dirty tricks, the cartel is the invisible hand fueling, feeding, and supporting directly or indirectly all of the major reasons why humanity has no idea of the real extinction danger it now faces from accelerating climate change.

Because of the above, the IPCC underestimated the severity of the consequences, and the timeframe predictions, and its global fossil fuel targets should not be relied upon without discounting them by at least 30-60% or more.

Additionally, if you do not understand the role of carbon in the atmosphere or how burning fossil fuels causes greenhouse gases and rising temperatures, click here for a quick illustration of the process. If you do not understand how we arrived at our current state of runaway global heating, click here.

At the end of this disruptive article, you will also find:

a. a link to a comprehensive four-part plan for what you can do to help fix and manage the many consequences of runaway global heating. And,

b. a link to the many surprising benefits you will experience as we work toward resolving the great challenge, opportunity, and evolutionary adventure of fixing runaway global heating.

Deception?

(Special note: A new major climate change study has been released, dramatically increasing the IPCC's serious underestimation and error problems. Please see this shocking new climate research article, which explains why we had to increase our previous underestimation calculation from 20-40% to 30-60%. (We are still updating all our pages with the "from 20-40% to 30-60% IPCC summary reports new underestimation factor.)

A graphic illustration of the utter failure of our governments to manage climate change and global fossil fuel use

There is no better measure of the last sixty years of our government's success or failure in reducing global warming than the amount of carbon going into our atmosphere. This is because more carbon entering the atmosphere directly causes the average global temperature to rise.

Please review the atmospheric carbon graph below.

You are now prepared to explore how and why our governments have completely failed us in managing the climate change nightmare.

There is an old saying: “You can not reach your desired goal unless you know where you are starting from and can see the barriers in the way."

Before exploring the runaway global heating solutions in the free Job One Plan, it is wise to examine how we have squandered 60 years of valid warnings and put ourselves into this untenable global warming extinction emergency. This way, we will have a better opportunity to set the correct global fossil fuel reduction targets, manage runaway global warming as effectively as possible, and avoid the same mistakes.

We have ignored over 60 years of valid warnings about the 20 major consequences of escalating global warming for many reasons. In addition to the disinformation programs of the fossil fuel industry, a key reason is that the recognized world authority on global warming (the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC) has failed to inform us honestly about the real risks and urgency of our climate emergency. (1)

Before discussing the numerous problems with the IPCC’s runaway global heating information and consequence predictions, as well as its UN reliability, it is necessary to frame the challenge to the IPCC’s reports appropriately. In the criticisms below, we are not in any way criticizing the thousands of individual and dedicated climate scientists, many of whom, at their own expense, provide uncensored, accurate, and up-to-date research on runaway global heating to the IPCC’s high-level bureaucrats. 

However, those IPCC bureaucrats are the individuals who, through a highly constrained and politically manipulated administrative process, analyze, interpret, and then create the final climate summary reports and predictions. 

The IPCC's many calculations, estimations, analyses, and interpretations reliability problems and errors

All underestimation by the IPCC is so dangerous to the future of humanity and to resolving the runaway global heating extinction emergency:

1. First, the organization is recognized as the most authoritative source on global warming. It advises national politicians and policymakers on the most relevant and accurate climate science, enabling them to make the necessary laws and policy changes to keep us safe.

2. Next, the IPCC’s overly conservative reading and underestimation problems mean that national governments, businesses, and the public will be grossly unprepared and blindsided by the more rapid onset of higher flooding, extreme storms, drought, and other runaway global heating impacts and consequences far beyond what they are currently prepared for. (6)  Worse yet, a society blind to the full range and speed of potential runaway global heating outcomes can remain unconscious of or apathetic to the growing emergency, causing them to push the hard but necessary runaway global heating reduction decisions farther and farther off into the future. 

3. The most significant loss caused by the IPCC’s gross underestimation problem is that it quells, if not removes, the appropriate sense of urgency essential to motivating the world's people to demand that their nations address the present and future threats of escalating runaway global heating. For example, what if the global warming disasters projected by the IPCC to start arriving between 2060 and 2080 begin in 2030-2040? If that happens, we won’t be prepared for the accurate scale, severity, and frequency of the disasters to come, and we will be leading ourselves closer to near-total extinction without even knowing it.

4. The above three problems are not the only issues with the IPCC and its gross underestimation. Please see the sections and links below for the many other IPCC errors and distortions that render the IPCC's summary report unreliable for addressing the runaway global heating extinction emergency. (Click here to learn why only near-total extinction and not total extinction is our most likely outcome if we fail to make the 2025 required global fossil fuel reduction targets.)

In summary, the current fossil fuel reduction gross underestimation factor is a powerful and dominant barrier standing in the way of humanity:

1. Understanding the actual severity of the coming runaway global heating consequences,

2. Understanding the actual urgency of the runaway global heating extinction emergency and

3. Eventually resolving the global warming extinction emergency. 

Click here if you are a victim of climate change damage or loss and want financial and other forms of restitution for the damages you have suffered.

Because the IPCC's final summary report is subjected to a line-by-line review/revision by representatives from more than 100 world governments, all of whom must individually approve and sign off on the final summary document before it is presented to the public, it is only reasonable to consider that inherent national conflicts of interest will also act to water down, delay, or delete those sections of each global warming report that directly and significantly impact the overall military, security, economics, or other key well-being factors of the sign-off nation.

For example, countries such as Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iran have significant portions of their annual gross domestic product (GDP) dependent on producing and/or exporting fossil fuels. If there were a sudden and significant mandated reduction in the use of global fossil fuel, some of these countries, particularly the ones with large national debts or without large financial reserves like Russia, Venezuela, the United States, Iraq, and Iran, could plunge into rapid economic decline and in some cases, possibly even social and political unrest or collapse. (7)  Unless something shifts radically, these serious conflicts of interest in sign-off nations will be a continuous source of watered-down or missing key facts.

We actively challenge any climate scientist or researcher to prove our analysis of the IPCC's climate summary reports wrong, particularly regarding the IPCC's serious errors, underestimations, and questionable data in their summary reports. 

Please see our five IPCC problem-specific items and links below for the most serious errors, underestimations, cooked books issues, and other IPCC climate change forecast reliability problems.

To accept our IPCC gross underestimation and errors challenge, it is necessary to read ALL of the IPCC's different problem links below. When you are done, we doubt any serious climate researcher would continue to rely on the IPCC's summary climate reports without severely discounting or questioning those IPCC summary facts. 

Here are the eight major IPCC gross underestimation contributory factors and errors that create a consistent 30-60% underestimation of climate change consequence severity or timelines. Be sure to go to the linked part of each item for a full description of each issue:

1. Click here to see precisely how the IPCC literally "cooked the books" and grossly skewed the current IPCC global fossil fuel reduction calculations far lower than they should be by including unproven and non-existent “magical carbon-sucking unicorn" technology into their critical net-zero by date projections. 

The corruption and falsification of global carbon reduction calculations enabled major fossil fuel-producing nations and industries to continue operating "business as usual." 

2. Click here to see the latest 2022 IPCC climate change summary critical climate sensitivity error. Due to this ongoing climate sensitivity error, the IPCC's latest climate consequence predictions, timeframes, and remedial action information may be underestimated by as much as 60% or more. (This 60% does not include the effect of the other IPCC errors described in the links in this section.) 

3. Click here to see a new study showing that the IPCC does not include many critical climate system factors in its computer climate modeling. Those missing factors result in incorrect and distorted outcomes. This February 2022 paper strongly refutes the absurd IPCC claim that the decline in Arctic sea ice melt is reversible. It is not reversible, and that is a monster problem for humanity's weather, seasonal climate, and future!

4. Click here to see the IPCC's Perfect Day problem with its computer climate modeling. This alone will significantly lower the accuracy of the IPCC's predictions of consequences, timelines, and fossil fuel reduction remedies, potentially affecting IPCC predictions by 30-60%.

Be sure also to read this essential explanation of the Climageddon Feedback Loop. It describes what 90% of climate change researchers still do not fully understand or account for in their forecasts and projections. The Climageddon Feedback Loop offers a more detailed explanation of the perfect day problem, including critical specifics that must be addressed for our future survival.

5. Click here to see the eleven key climate change tipping points and feedback loops almost entirely excluded from the IPCC calculations for how much fossil fuel use we must reduce each year globally. (Please see this detailed article on the Climageddon Feedback loop scenario, which describes in detail what is almost totally excluded in current climate change computer modeling and risk analysis, and the Perfect Day computer modeling.)

(Please note that newer calculations estimate the underestimation of climate change consequence severity, and time frames could now be as high as 60% or more. Further down this page are illustrations of different scenarios using the older 20 to 40% underestimation calculation.)

What can we do to fix this IPCC nightmare?

The IPCC’s gross underestimation and the lack of honest and accurate carbon capture technology calculations present an absolute nightmare for anyone attempting to undertake long-term planning, whether personal, business, local, regional, or national. When we consider the IPCC's underestimation problems and flawed carbon capture calculations, and develop new temperature and timetable predictions, it appears that any mid-term to long-term future planning based on the IPCC's predictions will put us in a world of hurt. 

When we reach 5 to 6° Celsius (9-10.8° Fahrenheit), it will be the end of the world as we know it, and it will not be far off in the future. When you factor in crossing more runaway global heating tipping points (which is highly probable and completely absent from the IPCC predictions, our world is in grave peril, not 40 or 80 years from now, but right now and over the next 20-40 years.

It is illogical beyond all comprehension to assign full responsibility for evaluating and predicting the single greatest security threat of the 21st century to a group of volunteer and underfunded climate scientists with the best intentions who submit their research to a bureaucratic and underfunded United Nations agency. But who should be doing this work?

If not the IPCC, who is most qualified to conduct future climate and global warming research and make necessary predictions?

The IPCC is not doing its job. The world's current leading authority on global warming is no longer the appropriate agent we can trust to manage the research, analysis, and planning necessary to save us from the escalating runaway global heating extinction emergency. The danger is so great and imminent that we can’t keep doing the same thing repeatedly, expecting a different result. 

We have no other rational choice but to bypass any existing failed authorities, structures, and processes that have not worked and are not working. That is the only way we will have any honest hope of handling the runaway global heating extinction emergency. 

Click here to read all about who should replace the IPCC and the many reasons why these organizations will be far, far better at doing the needed climate and global heating research and projections and protecting the future of humanity.

(Special breaking research update: Ongoing fossil fuel cartel hidden influence has continued to forward and support significantly underestimating the climate calculation-critical, climate sensitivity constant. (If you do not understand the central role of this absolutely critical climate change calculation constant, click here.)

According to a new 2023 study, the correct climate sensitivity constant is 4.8 degrees Celsius, not the IPCC's 3 degrees Celsius constant, which has been used by the IPCC over the last 30-plus years in almost all critical climate change calculations. The new study is titled "Global Warming in the Pipeline." It is by James Hansen et al. (James Hansen, a climate scientist at NASA, was primarily responsible for bringing the climate change emergency to the global public's attention).

This new and correct 4.8 degrees Celsius climate sensitivity constant amount confirms climate consequences will be sooner, worse, and far beyond what we are being publicly told. This 4.8 degrees Celsius corrected climate sensitivity constant also implies that we are already in a hidden worst-case climate change scenario for which humanity is not even remotely prepared.