Last Updated 2.3.23
We do not expect you to simply believe the challenging climate change information below. After reading the quick overview and summary of the many reasons it will be very challenging to fix the climate change emergency listed further below, we have provided lots of documentation in the expanded version of each reason given (linked at the bottom of this page.)
"You cannot be called an alarmist if there is something to be alarmed about." Unknown
You are about to read alarming facts about the difficulty of resolving our current climate change and runaway global heating emergency (aka. global warming) emergency. But, as you read these challenges, keep in mind that there are many things we can still do to prepare for and adapt to our runaway global heating future.
Below you will also discover the many challenges, problems, and dilemmas of getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. If we fail to get close to these 2025 targets, we will face a near-total extinction event beginning about 2070 or sooner.
This article assumes that:
1.) You already understand the basics of global warming and how atmospheric greenhouse gasses, such as carbon and methane from burning fossil fuels, drive our temperatures higher. (If you do not understand global warming causes or basic processes, please click here first for a simple illustration and explanation.) And,
2.) You understand climate change and runaway global heating is getting worse and accelerating. (See this link if you still doubt that the climate and global heating is getting worse.)
This article will also illuminate how the world has entered the beginning stages of runaway global warming and why it will soon cross more climate and global heating extinction-producing tipping points that will be irreversible for centuries to millennia.
At the end of this document, to help you manage runaway global warming's catastrophic or unavoidable consequences, we have provided a practical and effective plan called the Job One for Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan B.
What you are about to read defines the escalating runaway global heating extinction emergency we all now face. Most of you have seen the news about global heating-aggravated weather, like the record-breaking hurricanes, bomb cyclones, and the horrible wildfires in California, the western U.S., and Europe. Many of you have heard about the "worst in centuries" droughts and dust storms, the super cold then warm winters, the superstorms in India, or the rain bombs worldwide where weeks or months worth of rain falls in a few hours or a few days.
Some of you sense something terrible is happening to the stability of our seasons, and this pattern is getting worse. Some of you know that 98% of scientific research done by qualified climate scientists indicates that until we reverse our suicidal fossil fuel burning habits, climate change consequences will continue to increase in frequency, severity, and scale.
Other than the fact that we have wasted 60 years of warnings by our best scientists, there is a new reality concerning our climate change future. But, unfortunately, you will hear discussed only by a few courageous climate scientists, our organization, and several other global warming educational organizations.
The climate and global heating facts in this document are also suppressed in the major media. (This media gatekeeping protects the media's fossil fuel industry advertising partners and owners.)
These correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets would virtually mean the end of the fossil fuel business, which is currently one-third of the world's GDP (gross domestic product.) Fossil fuel is also the primary source of government income for many fossil fuel exporting countries.
The fossil fuel industry will never willingly allow its 28 trillion dollar-a-year business to collapse to a tiny fraction of its current self without a well-funded life and death struggle! If you think that is an exaggeration, think about how hard and long the minuscule by comparison, the cigarette industry has fought to maintain its death-dealing profits.
Unfortunately, the following article will also clarify why we may not get close to the critically needed 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets before it is too late to save much of humanity. Conversely, the urgent need for us to immediately begin personal climate change emergency preparations, adaptations, and climate resilience building before it is too late will also become painfully clear in the scores of climate and runaway global heating resolution challenges described below.
Please do not get discouraged after reading about the enormous climate challenges we all face (below). In the new Job One for Humanity Plan linked at the bottom of this document, you will find that there is still plenty that you (and we) can still do to make things better.
A little history about the climate change and global heating extinction emergency
The new book Climageddon published by the Job One for Humanity organization stated that if we were fortunate, global warming might not become uncontrollable (aka runaway global warming, near-total extinction-level global warming) for as much as the next 30-50+ years. But that would happen only if we did not mass mobilize and reach the radical 2025 global fossil fuel use reduction targets.
Almost three years after Climageddon's publication, we now know that the required 2025 fossil fuel reductions are not happening. Moreover, we also know that because fossil fuel carbon emissions are going up and not down even faster, there is a very high probability that the necessary fossil fuel reductions may never happen.
The numerous reasons why hitting the necessary 2025 reduction targets will be so challenging (if not impossible) will be illuminated in the many reasons you are about to read. Unfortunately, time is not on our side!
We have also provided a link to the surprising benefits we will achieve as we enact needed changes to manage climate consequences better.
And finally, when you finish reading this article and the nearly unsolvable problems it highlights, you will know for yourself if we have entered into the era of Mutually Assured Climate Extinction (MACE).
What will make climate change and global heating out of our control?
To understand why climate change and global heating may already out of our meaningful control, it is first necessary to explain:
a. how to measure honest global warming reduction progress,
b. what are the correct fossil fuel targets that we must meet and control to avoid total or near-total extinction within our lifetimes, and
c. how we define "out of our meaningful control."
Below you see a C02 graph showing the amount of carbon in our atmosphere in parts per million (ppm).
The amount of carbon in our atmosphere in parts per million (ppm) is one of the best, if not the single most reliable, predictor of future global warming temperatures and consequences as it either increases or decreases. More carbon in the atmosphere equals higher temperatures and worse climate consequences and vice versa.
Look at the steeply increasing angle of carbon in the above C02 graph. This rising graph shows us that we are not currently controlling escalating global warming and climate change, and it is getting worse! (At 4.6.2022 we are at about carbon 421 ppm.)
When we say that climate change and runaway global heating may be out of our meaningful or practical control we precisely mean that:
1. We cannot cross the first critical climate change extinction-producing tipping point which occurs at the atmospheric carbon level of 425-450 ppm. If we do, we cannot prevent the extinction of half of humanity by mid-century and then near-total extinction by 2070. (This article will show you how incredibly difficult not crossing the first extinction tipping point will be.)
2. The only way to prevent crossing that first carbon 425 to 450 ppm extinction accelerating tipping point is to get very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Conversely, if we fail to hit the 2025 target, we will quickly trigger the three extinction-accelerating tipping points (described in detail in the expanded reasons below.)
3. We also may be unable to sufficiently reduce our average annual increase in atmospheric carbon each year over the next 30-50 years. (Our average yearly increase is currently at about three carbon ppm.) Why this is annual carbon reduction is so important will be explained below in the expanded reasons.)
4. Although we may make some further minor progress in reducing global fossil fuel use, those small reductions are grossly inadequate compared to the necessary radical 2025 global fossil fuel use reductions now required to save humanity from extinction.
5. We are currently entirely unable to get our total atmospheric carbon ppm levels back down to anywhere close to our previously safe level of carbon 270-350 ppm for sustainable human success. Carbon 270-350 ppm is the long-term human-safe level where our climate could once again re-stabilize, but only after hundreds or thousands of years.
6. While it may be theoretically still possible to reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, to do it, we also have to resolve most, if not all, of the many climate change challenges listed below. And finally,
7. Please remember the horrible time limitation that most, if not all, of these challenges must also be globally resolved within the next 3 to as many as 9 years. That also means that have to be able to scale up to globally effective levels in just 3-9 years at most. (The expanded reason sections after the quick overview of the many reasons will fully explain why we have only this 3-9 year remaining window of opportunity remaining.)
A quick summary of the many reasons why climate change and runaway global heating may be out of our control
(If you want to learn more about any of the scores of reasons listed in the overview, detailed and expanded explanations and documentation for each reason are found further down the page.)
1. The extremely well-financed global fossil fuel industry and its lobbyists have been using their highly effective climate change disinformation and misinformation campaigns on politicians, national and international government agencies, the global media, and individual citizens for many decades. Most people worldwide now believe their false global fossil fuel reduction targets, their false climate change solutions, and their false climate change reduction progress is being made claims.
2. Mainly because of the fossil fuel disinformation campaigns, our governments and other authorities keep giving us incorrect global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines that will not work in time to save us.
3. There is a 20-40% underestimation of current climate change consequences and timetables by the authoritative UN, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC.) This creates a false climate security that steals the needed public urgency to act on the real climate change consequences and deadlines.
4. At this late date, it is extremely difficult to come even close to the required 2025 global fossil fuel use reductions. The required global reductions are so severe (and underestimated,) that they would temporarily crash the world economy and kill about half of the worldwide population.
5. Successfully cutting fossil fuel radically to reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction target levels would create horrible agricultural and mass starvation side effects.
6. Forty years ago, our governments were warned by climate scientists, but they did not sufficiently reduce global fossil fuel usage when the needed targets could have been gradual and easy. Why would our governments ever do it now, when the needed reductions are radically larger and far more painful?
7. As of 4.17.2022, we are still not making anything even close to the required global fossil fuel reductions to come even close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction target of 75% for all developed countries including China and India.
8. There is still no verifiable or enforceable international climate agreement that could demand and enforce, making the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction levels needed.
9. We have already gone over the climate cliff in 2015 and we have already entered into the beginning stages of runaway global warming.
10. We now also face the accelerating dangerous effects of crossing more global climate change tipping points, positive feedback loops, and points of no return within the climate system.
11. We will soon experience the cataclysmic effects of the soon-to-be-crossed two extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points.
12. The steady rise of methane into the atmosphere from new methane releases from fracking, melting permafrost, tundra, and leaking natural gas lines. They all act as another major hidden and dangerous source for our global fossil-fuel reduction failure.
13. We have a near insolvable problem of a fair and internationally recognized climate change justice definition and a fair climate change restitution and aid processes.
14. Our national governments are not even close to mass-mobilizing all of the needed human, financial, and other resources to come even close to the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, and we are almost out of time.
15. No nation, organization, or individual is actually "driving" the global governance "car" to remedy climate change extinction emergency on a worldwide scale.
16. If governments try to enforce the correct, painful, and radical 2025 global fossil fuel reductions now required, people will rebel, and those governments will soon be overthrown or collapse.
17. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic still distracts our national leaders from the climate change emergency.
18: The seemingly unstoppable continuing increase in average global warming temperature due to ever-increasing global fossil fuel use due to the increasing energy needs of an ever-increasing global population.
19. Green energy generation will not save us in time or prevent us from going over the most critical climate change tipping points.
21. The promised new "miracle" technologies like carbon capture and geoengineering also will not save us before it is too late!
22. Accelerating global warming is not our only current major global emergency. There are 11 other huge ones drawing attention and resources away from fixing climate change!
23. Humans are terrible at recognizing and adapting to slow-moving, nearly invisible, incremental threats or changes.
24. The human race is significantly limited and distracted by day-to-day economic survival issues, current media distractions, and a fatal inherent evolutionary disability.
25. Society's fear of change is a major contributing cause to the 60 years of inaction (social and political inertia) concerning doing what must be done to resolve this climate change extinction emergency.
26. The world's citizens have failed to rise as a single powerful voice to demand their politicians act immediately on the climate emergency to save the future.
27. We are already well over and beyond ALL rational and safe climate change extinction threat and risk limits for responsibly protecting the future of humanity.
28. The invisible adverse effects of climate momentum and human inertia inhibit or discourage the needed climate change actions and real change.
29. Covid has taught us the bitter truth that a large portion of humanity will resist wise and urgent life or death changes --- no matter what! And finally,
30. The ultimate reason and challenge for our governments to work together and mass-mobilize all needed resources to prevent our extinction has still not been done!
If you want to learn more about any of the reasons listed in the overview, detailed and expanded explanations and documentation for each reason are found further down the page.
The expanded reasons we may not reach the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets
The reasons below are not listed in the order of their importance. You judge which reasons are the most unresolvable barriers to fixing climate change. Each expanded explanation below has additional links to its documentation, proving that a statement is accurate.
Below are the many reasons why climate change and runaway global heating may already be out of our meaningful control. Please start one of the action steps below:
"There can be no margin for error whenever there is a real and imminent threat of total human extinction." Lawrence Wollersheim
If you are interested in understanding the climate science and analysis procedures we used to present the above information, click here for a technical explanation of our climate research process.
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