"You cannot be called an alarmist if there really is something to be alarmed about." Unknown
You are about to read some very alarming facts about our current global warming emergency (also often called the climate emergency, the climate crisis, runaway global warming, the global warming extinction emergency, the Holocene extinction, the sixth mass extinction event.)
We trust you will make up your own mind about what is valid and what to do after thinking carefully about the many disruptive reasons, facts, and documentation that we are presenting below. As you read this difficult climate change and global warming news, never also forget that there are still many things we can do to improve our global warming future.
This article describes the many near-impossible 2025 global fossil fuel reduction target challenges and dilemmas that must be resolved by 2025 to delay a mid-century mass extinction event and save us from a total extinction event beginning about 2070 or sooner. It illuminates the processes behind complex climate momentum factors, human and technological factors, and social inertia factors as well as the many other near-unsolvable global warming reduction challenges we currently face.
This article assumes that you already understand the basics of what global warming is and how greenhouse gasses in our atmosphere such as carbon and methane from burning fossil fuels are driving our temperatures higher. (If you do not clearly understand the basic global warming causes and processes, please click here for a simple illustration and explanation.)
At the end of this document, to help you deal with all of this bad news and help you manage these coming consequences, a practical and effective plan called the Job One for Humanity Plan is provided.
It will show you how:
1. to resolve or manage the many challenges this document presents, and how
2. to prepare for and to adapt to the disruptive new facts described below.
We have also provided a link to the many benefits we will achieve as we face this emergency and enact the needed changes to manage its consequences. You will be pleasantly surprised by the many benefits that you (and humanity) will acquire as we resolve this challenge, opportunity, and adventure while always keeping in mind that, "our greatest challenges are also our greatest opportunities."
Introduction to why climate change and global warming already may be out of our meaningful control
What you are about to read, defines many aspects of an escalating global warming emergency that we all now face. Most of you have seen the news about global warming-aggravated weather, like the record-breaking hurricanes, bomb cyclones, the horrible wildfires in California, the western U.S., and Europe. Many of you have heard about the "worst in centuries" droughts and dust storms, or the super cold then warm winters, or the super storms in India or, the rain bombs worldwide where weeks or months worth of rain falls in a few hours or a few days.
Some of you already know that something bad is happening to the normal stability of our seasons and this pattern is getting worse. Some of you also know that 97% of scientific research done by qualified climate scientists clearly indicates that until we reverse our suicidal fossil fuel burning habits, the global warming consequences mentioned above will continue to significantly and regularly increase in frequency, severity, and scale and, these kinds of events will continue breaking all previous climate records.
Other than the fact that we have wasted 35 years of warnings by our best scientists, there is now a new shocking new reality concerning our global warming future that you will hear discussed only by a few courageous climate scientists, our organization, and one or two other global warming educational organizations. The number of individuals and educational organizations that will be speaking out about our soon-arriving global warming extinction reality (also described below,) will steadily grow as we continue to see larger, more frequent, and more severe climate catastrophes.
Unfortunately, the global warming facts in this document are also widely suppressed in the major media. This media gatekeeping protects the ongoing profiting on global fossil fuel use by the media's fossil fuel industry major advertising partners and owners.
Additionally, those suppressing this document's information are afraid of how you might react to this information. They are worried that if you truly understood what is on this page, you might panic, or you will angrily demand that our politicians immediately implement the 2025 radical cuts to our global fossil fuel use. (The 2025 cuts are described below and they are critical to what is needed to save us in time from unconscionable global warming consequences.)
These correct last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets would virtually mean the end of the fossil fuel business, which is currently one-third of the world's GDP (gross domestic product.) Fossil fuel is also the primary source of government income for many fossil fuel exporting countries.
The fossil fuel industry is never willingly going to allow its 29 trillion dollar-a-year business to collapse to a tiny fraction of its current self without a well-funded life and death struggle! If you think that is an exaggeration, think about how hard and long the minuscule by comparison cigarette industry has fought to maintain its death-dealing profits.
And once again, after reading about the huge global warming challenges we all now face (below,) please do not get discouraged. In the new Job One for Humanity Plan linked at the bottom of this document, you will find that there is still plenty that you (and we) can still do to make things better.
A little history about the global warming and climate change emergency first...
In the new book Climageddon published by the Job One for Humanity organization about 3 years ago, it was stated that if we were very lucky, global warming might not become uncontrollable (aka runaway global warming, extinction-level global warming) for as much as the next 30-50+ years. But that could happen only if we immediately mass mobilized the radical, costly, and correct 2025 global fossil fuel use reductions and, we did not cross the last chance tipping point (described further below.)
Almost 3 years after Climageddon's publication, we now know that the required 2025 fossil fuel reductions are not happening anywhere even close to what is needed. We also know that because fossil fuel carbon emissions are going up and not down, there is a very high probability that the necessary fossil fuel reductions may never happen.
The numerous reasons why hitting the necessary 2025 reduction targets will be so difficult also will be described in the many reasons listed below. Time is not on our side! In these materials, you will discover that individually almost all of the reasons listed below will require decades to resolve. Collectively it is even worse, resolving the most important reasons below will most likely require at least 50 or more years to resolve and probably far longer than that.
Once you grasp how the many reasons for our likely global warming reduction failure fit together and interact with and upon each other, you too will see how near impossible it will be to cut our fossil fuel use to meet or even get close to the 2025 targets.
The 28 reasons we won't reach the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, that global warming is already out of our control, and much or most of humanity will die off by 2050-2070
The reasons below are not listed in the order of their importance for inhibiting society from resolving the global warming emergency. We will let you be the judge as to which of these reasons are the most important barriers to success.
Each of the many reasons below also has additional links leading you to the documentation proving that a particular statement is itself true.
Before we present the many reasons why we may not be able to achieve the 2025 reduction targets and why global warming may already be out of our meaningful control, and all we can do at this point is adapt to it, it is essential to first explain:
a. how to measure honest global warming reduction status and progress,
b. the correct fossil fuel targets that we need to meet to avoid mass extinction within our lifetimes, and
c. then clearly define what we mean by "out of our meaningful global warming control."
Let's get started.
Below you see a graph showing the amount of carbon in our atmosphere in parts per million.
The amount of carbon in our atmosphere in parts per million (ppm) is one of the best, if not the single most reliable predictor of future global warming temperatures as either increases or decreases. More carbon in the atmosphere equals higher temperatures and worse consequences and vice versa.
Look at the steeply increasing angle of the C02 graph. This rising graph shows us that we are not controlling escalating global warming!
When we say that we have probably already lost meaningful control over escalating global warming, we mean that:
1. although we may make further progress in reducing global fossil fuel use, those reductions are grossly inadequate compared to the 2025 global fossil fuel use reductions now required. Consequently, we will not be able to save ourselves from the worst consequences of global warming or slow down a mass extinction of most of humanity by mid-century.
2. we also will be unable to radically reduce our average annual increase in atmospheric carbon each year over the next 30-50 years. (Our average annual increase is currently at about three carbon ppm.) Why this is important will be explained further below in the reasons.)
3. we are entirely unable to get our total atmospheric carbon ppm levels (currently as of July 30, 2021, at about carbon 420 ppm) back down to anywhere close to our previously safe level for humans life of carbon 270-350 ppm. Carbon 270-350 ppm is our past human-safe level where our current climate could once again re-stabilize, but only after hundreds or thousands of years.
Unless we are successful in achieving the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets and we can resolve the many challenges to success discussed below to reaching those targets, it can easily be said by any rational person --- that our global warming future might already be out of our meaningful control.
Only if we achieve the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, do we have any practical hope of not going over the first critical extinction-evoking carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point and then quickly triggering the three other global warming extinction-accelerating tipping points (also described below.) While it still may be theoretically possible to reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets 2025, we also will have to overcome and resolve the 25 huge challenges listed below in time to be successful.
(Please note: Many of the most important reasons that global warming is most probably already out of our control are near the end of this list!)
The 28 scariest reasons why climate change and global warming are most likely already out of our meaningful control, and all we can do now is prepare for and adapt to them
Reason 1: With only a few years left, we are still not making anything even close to the required fossil fuel reductions to meet or come close to 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets This reduction failure means we will not be able to avoid major global temperature increases, horrendous climate calamities, and a mass extinction event far sooner than imagined.
As you can see from the C02 carbon ppm graph above, we are not making the required cuts in our fossil fuel use to reduce the carbon going into our atmosphere to slow or reverse rising temperatures.
To adequately prepare you for the shocking REAL fossil fuel reductions that must be made to save humanity, it is necessary to see just how poorly our previous fossil fuel reduction actions have fared since we were first notified about the global warming extinction danger over 35 years ago.
What has been hidden from you:
1. We have increased fossil fuel use more this century than in the last two decades of the 20th century. More than half of all fossil fuel emissions released over the previous 25 years are more than was released in all of recorded history before 1990.
2. Even though we have had over 21 international conferences on fossil fuel reduction, and we had international treaties since at least 1993 pledging we would reduce global warming, we still are about 67% higher in carbon emissions than the early 1990s. (Atmospheric carbon emissions are probably the best way to measure future global warming.)
3. In 2018 carbon emissions increased another dramatic 2.7% and they are projected to rise once again in 2019.
Yes, intentionally or through ignorance, our governments, the media, and most of the world's environmental groups have not been telling us the REAL facts about how our REAL lack of any progress whatsoever in reducing the rate of fossil fuel use increases, much less the complete absence of any substantive reductions anywhere across the world in reducing atmospheric carbon.
Keep in mind the above dismal failure of previous efforts to take fossil fuel reductions seriously and previous failures to reduce the rates of annual carbon increases. You are now ready to explore the REAL fossil fuel reductions that must be made to save our future. (If you still don't believe we are telling you the truth about our dismal failure in reducing global warming over the last 40 years, click here to view a short video by climate Professor Kevin Anderson in a recent presentation to the Oxford University Climate Society.)
To slow or prevent going over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point which leads to crossing two key extinction-accelerating tipping points, we need to radically and immediately reduce our global fossil fuel use.
The absolute minimum total fossil fuel reductions that must occur to prevent the high probability of going extinct not sometime after 2100, but within the next 3-5 decades are:
a. All industrially developed nations must reduce their total fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025 and then continue reducing fossil fuel use to net-zero carbon emissions by 2035. Net carbon zero emissions in this solution means that no additional fossil fuel emissions are going into the atmosphere that is not also simultaneously being removed from the atmosphere by natural means. (Only about 20 countries produce 70% or more of the world's carbon emissions.)
Think of developed nations like most members of the G 20 group; Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, and India. (See technical note one near the end of this page for why China and India had to be included in the list of developed countries.)
b. All developing nations must maintain their total fossil fuel emission levels as they are at the beginning of 2019 and not allow them to go any higher. Then by 2045, all developing nations must also be at net-zero carbon emissions. To do this they will need to drop their fossil fuel emissions by 6% each year. This allowance for developing nations to stay at the level they are now and gradually reduce down to net-zero carbon emissions by 2045 is part of an essential justice and equity equation.
The developed nations created their wealth by producing the majority of all carbon emissions in the atmosphere today. The developed nations have caused almost all of our current global warming extinction emergency. (See technical note two near the end of this page for more about justice and equity allowances.)
Please especially note that our above global fossil fuel reduction targets are not the same as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC,) global fossil fuel reduction targets. This discrepancy is because the current fossil fuel reduction targets presented by the United Nations and used by governments all over the world are also dead wrong!
Those calculations have been politically manipulated to allow fossil fuel-producing countries and companies to maintain their sources of income. Those calculations also have been regularly and significantly underestimated.
Some of the calculations have been "cooked" to allow for "post-2050 atmospheric carbon reduction compensations," for a projected and currently non-proven carbon removal technology. Even the IPCC says this projected new carbon capture technology will not exist, be able to be scaled-up adequately or ready until maybe sometime after 2050. (The calculations Job One uses (above) are based on current conditions as well as the correct mathematics and physics from legitimate and unafraid climate scientists like Professor Keven Anderson.)
To read about the politicizing of the science and math in the United Nations calculations, click here.
To learn about the cooked calculations for a 2050 carbon capture technology that does not exist in a usable form and which, allows the uninformed to believe that we are safe and secure, click here.)
Here are more details and another way of describing why the above 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets are so important to achieve. If we do not engage in anything less than the greatest government-driven mass mobilization in human history of all necessary resources directed toward radically cutting fossil fuel use to hit the critical 2025 global reduction targets, we will without a doubt go over what is called our "last chance" carbon tipping point. This last chance tipping point will occur at or shortly after we cross the carbon 425-450 parts per million (ppm) range. (See the blue Atmospheric CO2 carbon graph above to see how close we are to that point already.)
We call it our last chance tipping point because it truly is our last window of opportunity to keep from going over the first critical carbon 425 to 450 tipping point. Once we go over this tipping point, our average global temperature will inevitably rise well above 2°C far faster than ever before in geological time scales. (Geological time is measured in hundreds of thousands to millions of years.)
This very fast temperature rise will also create a powerful momentum that will then push our average global temperature even higher even faster. This momentum is composed of many factors and processes including crossing additional global warming tipping points, which, unfortunately, we will also begin to cross at an even faster pace once we go over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point.
(To learn more about how crossing global warming tipping points [like those in the illustration above,] function, accelerate global warming temperature rise, consequences, causes sudden and complete climate, biological and human system collapses as well as make recovery from their consequences much slower, harder and more expensive, click here.)
If we continue only to the carbon 425 ppm tipping point level, now within about 3 years (or less,) we can expect to lock in an eventual increase in average global temperature of about 2 -2.7° Celsius (4° - 4.9° Fahrenheit) from preindustrial levels. At just this 2°-2.7° Celsius increased average global temperature level, millions more will starve and millions of additional people from all over the world will eventually be forced to either migrate or die. This occurs in part because of:
a. global warming systemic as well as atmospheric carbon accumulation momentum factors,
b. serious human systems inertia and other problem factors, (Described in part on this page.)
c. more and other crossed tipping points.
Once we go over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point and hit the 2.2°-2.7° Celsius average global temperature increase level, the total heat-producing momentum of all of the previous carbon that we have ever put into the atmosphere (particularly all that additional carbon we have added over the last 50 years,) along with the other factors previously mentioned (in a, b and c above,) will once again quickly and inevitably push our global average global temperature even higher!
This also means that for all intents and purposes, once we go over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point and climate and human system momentum and inertia factors we are basically locked into continually increasing temperatures for as much as the next 30-50 years!
If we cross the carbon 425 carbon ppm tipping point, we will reach the next key threshold and carbon and temperature transition level where we will be unable to stop ourselves from continuing uncontrollably and far too quickly to 3°, 4°, 5°, and 6° Celsius average global temperature increases (5.4°, 7.2°, 9°, and 10.8° Fahrenheit.) Once we cross the 2°C carbon 425 ppm tipping point the even higher temperature levels of 3°, 4°, 5°, and possibly even 6° Celsius also will be all but locked in due to:
1. our continuing to add more fossil fuel burning carbon to the atmosphere each and every additional year (at about 3 ppm per year,)
2. this ever-increasing heat-producing carbon and other greenhouse gas momentum, and
3. our being unable to stop ourselves from crossing many more global warming tipping points and triggering other positive feedback loops and points of no return within the many systems and subsystems of the global climate due to human system inertias and other problems.
Because of the preceding, we have no other rational alternative other than to prevent ever crossing into this highly dangerous transitional carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, range, and tipping point. At our current rate of carbon and other greenhouse gas atmospheric pollution, entering this range will begin, unfortunately, sometime around 2025.
There is something we can be certain of in this emergency. No matter what and in spite of all of the challenges and bad outcomes that are possible, the single constant truth for the best possible global warming outcome for humanity in this emergency is that the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use:
a. the more people we will survive to carry on humanity, life, and our beautiful civilization, and
b. future generations will suffer less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences.
In the illustration below you see a red vertical "Must not pass, last chance battle line and range of carbon 425 to 450 ppm." As you can see, going over the carbon 425 tipping point leads us to a very steep and slippery downward slope to our own rapid extinction.
This illustration above also lists at what carbon ppm levels the six distinct phases of what we call the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown occur (CS Phase 1-6.) After you read the rest of the document, we strongly recommend that you also review the detailed year-by-year global warming consequence timetables found in what we call the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown.
Crossing the carbon 425 ppm tipping point unfailingly sets us up to rapidly cross with the next near-extinction atmospheric carbon tipping point level of carbon 500 ppm where the average global temperature will eventually increase to 4°C. If we miss the 2025 targets, carbon 500 ppm is predicted to happen in as soon as 20-25 years from now about 2038-2042. At a 4°C temperature increase above preindustrial levels, all ice on earth will melt, chaos will ensue and today's organized society can no longer exist or function!
Once we cross the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction tipping point, it is near-certain that we will also soon cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction tipping point not too long after that. (Much more will be said about the carbon 500 and 600 ppm extinction tipping point processes and their consequences further down this page.)
When we cross this carbon 425-450 ppm "last chance" tipping point, in addition to leading us rapidly into mass extinction (most of humanity by mid-century,) the consequences we will experience will also be irreversible for centuries to thousands of years.
Unfortunately, our governments have been giving public global warming predictions that include a 25-40% underestimation factor as well as not including any calculations for any of the 11 key tipping points being crossed. When you add these factors back into the prediction calculations to correct them, it becomes obvious that we will be facing our worst nightmares of higher global temperatures far faster than we are even remotely prepared for.
(There is much more information including what our individual, business, and national annual fossil fuel reduction targets would be, what will happen if we don't hit the above targets, and the technical footnotes that will help explain why the severity of these fossil fuel reductions. We strongly suggest you go to this highly recommended global fossil fuel reduction explanation page and read all the qualifying information on the absolutely essential fossil fuel reductions sometime before you put this document away.)
(Special Update on the carbon 425 ppm Climate Cliff because of new climate research: Click here to see the horrible news that the global warming Climate Cliff does not occur in 2025 as was previously calculated. We already went over a downwardly adjusted climate cliff in 2015!)
Getting real about what must be done to reduce fossil fuel use to the needed levels
To grasp how painful these cuts will be, imagine that in the next six years you will have to cut your total home, auto, plane, and business activities that use fossil fuels by at least 75%. Then once you have done that, you will have to cut back again to net-zero fossil fuel use within the next ten years after that. Now try to imagine everyone else in all developed nations doing the same.
If you live in a developed country, are you doing this now? Does that seem possible that you would voluntarily change your normal life and fossil fuel use so fast? Do you see the governments of the developed nations of the world coming together in a great act of cooperation passing the laws, verification procedures, and the enforceable punishments necessary to make sure we make the 2025 deadline?
You probably came up with the same answer we did, which is it is near certain we will not make the required fossil fuel cuts in time. It is more likely that the developed world citizens who did not understand the urgency or importance of why they needed to make these painful sacrifices, would throw their politicians out of office. They would also most likely overthrow any government that tried to enforce these radical fossil fuel reductions upon their comfortable or subsistence level lifestyles and livelihoods.
Now imagine all of the individuals, corporations, and governments in the developed nations which mostly depend upon fossil fuels seeing their livelihoods disappear by at least 75% in the next six years. How much of a fight and disinformation program would those individuals, industries, and nations put up or create to preserve their livelihoods and their futures?
It's hard to imagine what the fossil fuel industry would not be capable of doing to preserve a $28 trillion year market segment.
When the above 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets (and other factors described in the other reasons below,) are taken collectively into consideration, the 2025 critical fossil fuel reductions while theoretically still possible, are all but impossible to achieve at this time.
What is most important to remember about Reason One above is that if we go over the atmospheric carbon 425 ppm level the primary and secondary global warming-triggered consequences listed on this essential page will bring about the unavoidable die-off of much of humanity by mid-century.
Reason 2: Our governments and other authorities keep giving us incorrect global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines that will not work in time to save us. Depending on where you live in the world, your politicians, governments, and even most of the world's environmental groups are giving you different and incorrect fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines. For example, many countries have set the target of becoming net-zero carbon by 2050. This wrong target issue even includes the US Democratic party. Other governments, the UN, and almost all environmental groups are promoting various conflicting levels of fossil fuel reductions and net-zero carbon levels by either 2050, 2040, 2035, 2032, or 2030.
For example, the UN is still using the incorrect global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines created by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC.) The IPCC is considered the world's leading authority on global warming and what should be done about climate change.
IPCC's most current incorrect target and deadline for global fossil fuel reduction is that we need to make a 40% reduction in total global fossil fuel use by 2030 and then reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The colossal danger with the IPCC's wrong targets is, these wrong deadlines and targets are now being used to set the correctional global warming strategies for the world's governments, NGOs, and largest non-profit environmental groups.
This makes it even less likely that we will come close to reaching the 2025 legitimate targets because our governments and NGOs are aiming at the wrong target destinations and deadlines. Click here to read the science for what makes the IPCC's current 40% reduction in total global fossil fuel use by 2030 and then reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 so dangerously wrong!
The many incorrect targets and deadlines mentioned above are entirely inadequate and will not save us from extinction in time. Worse yet, when you have competing incorrect global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines forwarded by recognized authorities, it thwarts and delays humanity's ability to understand or execute the correct fossil fuel reduction targets.
Ironically, if we cannot get the world's recognized environmental leaders to promote the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines, which at least have some reasonable chance to prevent a massive extinction event from occurring within our lifetimes, how likely is it that we will ever achieve the 2025 reductions?
In the other reasons below, you will discover additional IPCC incorrect calculations, allowances for nonexistent new technologies, and the many twisted ways that those who have been entrusted to lead us with the correct global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines are not doing so.
Until these wrong targets and deadlines are corrected or removed, there is little chance we will re-organize to focus our efforts on accomplishing the right targets and deadlines. The time left until 2025 is running out fast. Only by hitting or coming very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets will we be able to avoid a mass extinction event within the next 30-50 years.
At this point, one could easily say that any entity promoting incorrect or inadequate fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines is certainly not part of the global warming solution. Entities promoting the wrong targets and deadlines have now become a major part of the problem if we want to prevent a mass extinction event from occurring within our lifetimes.
Reason 3: The horrible agricultural side effects if we do successfully cut fossil fuel radically to reach the 2025 global target levels described above. The main side effect is global agriculture will crash when we drastically reduce fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 targets. Agriculture is heavily dependent upon fossil fuels such as methane to make the essential fertilizers and other chemicals to allow mass food production to occur.
Agriculture also depends heavily upon fossil fuels to run the equipment essential to creating and processing our mass food production and its distribution. Once we come anywhere close to the crucial levels of global fossil-fuel reductions we need to execute to save the future, highly fossil fuel-dependent global agriculture will crash. Then up to 50% of the population will die of starvation not long after that.
What this means is that if we do not make the required 2025 global fossil fuel reductions, most of humanity will die by mid-century. If we do not make the required 2025 global fossil fuel reductions, as much as 50% of humanity will die of starvation in as little as 20 to 30 years. That is a difficult choice that few politicians are even willing to consider.
Reason 4: It is highly improbable we will ever make the needed cuts to our fossil fuel use because they also will temporarily crash the world economy and kill much of the global population. Another primary reason it is unlikely we will make the required cuts soon enough to save ourselves is because of what is called Garrett's Global Warming Dilemma.
Professor Garrett's research states that because of the laws of physics and mathematics, almost all of our fossil fuel-based global economy must first collapse in a necessary and steep global recession or depression. Only this will produce the required cuts in our fossil fuel use in time to save humanity. Environmental groups around the world most often ignore this well-documented climate research by Professor Garrett because it also produces a horrible dilemma for which either answer is unthinkable as well as un-sellable to members.
The dilemma is that while the radical global fossil fuel cuts needed immediately will prevent total extinction in the future by about 2070, it will cause the mass die-off of much of humanity (51% or more) long before then from starvation and the other global warming-related causes listed on this page.
Because of this dilemma, and because there is no public or political will to create a severe, but necessary global recession or depression to adequately reduce fossil fuel use, most environmental groups hide this critical research away and ignore it like dirty laundry. Because of this economic dilemma, it is hard to imagine that fossil fuels use will ever be cut to anything close to the critical levels needed. At least not until we are faced with massive global financial losses and billions of dead.
Unfortunately, by that time, the worst consequences and higher temperatures of global warming also will be irreversible for timescales far, far beyond the human lifespan.
(If you're a science person, please click here and read a summary of Prof. Garrett's alarming research on atmospheric carbon, global warming, and the necessary fossil fuel reductions we must make to save the future.)
Reason 5: Green energy generation will not save us in time to prevent going over any of the most critical tipping points. This is because it will take far too long to produce enough green energy generation to replace the energy produced by fossil fuel energy generation. This is critical because we only have until 2025 to hit critical global fossil fuel reductions to save us from mass extinction.
Over-hyping how fast green energy generation will replace fossil fuels energy generation is a near-universal illusion held by many individuals and environmental organizations alike. For the facts on this near-universal global warming illusion, please see this Massechutes Institute of Technology (MIT) study to verify we are a long, long way (about 400 years by MIT's estimates) from replacing most fossil fuels uses with green energy uses. The projected real length of time it will take to move away from global fossil fuel energy generation to green energy generation to replace it.
This new information means that any realistic hope we had for a fast transition (in less than 50-100+ years) to full green energy generation to replace all fossil fuel energy generation is entirely unrealistic. Much of humanity will be long gone before the full green energy generation revolution takes hold.
Reason 6: The promised other new "miracle" technologies like carbon capture and geoengineering will not save us before it is too late! Some of you may hear the news that global warming is out of our control and will think, "aren't they working on inventions it will suck the fossil fuel burning carbon particles out of the atmosphere in time to save us?" If you think that this is our easy out and easy solution to continue our fossil fuel burning "business as usual," please click here.
Here you can read why the currently nonexistent carbon capture technology is a silicon valley and techno-optimism delusion that will not save us in time. You will also learn why carbon capture technology is also a mathematical and physical near impossibility.
Today you find carbon capture technology being forwarded mostly by impatient, profit-hungry entrepreneurs, and mechanical engineers looking to make billions on the greatest catastrophe of human history.
In summary, believing that atmospheric carbon capture schemes will save us at the last minute from our ill-advised actions (instead of changing our behaviors,) is equivalent to believing in magical carbon-sucking unicorns.
Reason 7: There is still no verifiable or enforceable international agreement that could execute and enforce the critical 2025 fossil fuel reduction levels needed. There is no adequate verification or enforcement of our existing international global warming reduction agreements. Our existing international agreements do not require anything even close to 2025 global fossil fuel reductions to make matters even worse!
The required levels of global fossil-fuel reduction could occur if there was a total governmental commitment and an immediate mass mobilization by all nations to begin cutting fossil fuel to the 2025 percentages listed above. There would also need to be some form of an overarching international agency that had real verification, enforcement, and punishment rights over all nations that might violate the global warming reduction treaties or agreements. That kind of power implies some form of functional global government which is estimated to be decades away at the earliest.
Because there are no such verifiable and enforceable international reduction agreements among governments or, any current governmental mass mobilization to implement the critical reductions, it means that we will be adding carbon to the atmosphere at our current average annual rate of about three or more ppm per year for about the next 30- 50 + years. This would add at least, another 90-150 carbon ppm to our current 414 ppm total, or carbon 504 to 554 ppm. (See atmospheric carbon graph further above and imagine the steepness of the graph line as another 150 carbon ppm points is added to it over the next 50 years.)
Reason 8: The unstoppable and continuing increase in average global warming temperature due to increased fossil fuel use because of the ever-increasing population. Because of the laws of physics concerning adding new atmospheric greenhouse gases like carbon, global temperature will continue to rise as we keep adding more carbon particles into the atmosphere. Adding three or more carbon ppm per year for the next 30-50 or more years (as we are doing now,) does not include adding any other annual carbon ppm amounts for the additional energy used as the human population soars from 7 to 14 billion people. That three-carbon ppm per year also does not include many more people from the developing world who will move into the middle class, demanding the same high fossil fuel comforts of the developed world. This near doubling of population, as well as the massive increase in new middle-class energy demand, could increase current fossil fuel use by another 25 to 40%.
When you look down the road 30-50 years from now and add only the additional 90-150 carbon ppm to our most current carbon 414 ppm total, it is easy to see there is no way for us to keep from crossing the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction level. (We are averaging an additional 3 ppm of carbon each year. 30 x 3 = 90 and 50 x 3 = 150. More will be disclosed below about the lasting effects of atmospheric carbon levels at or above the carbon 500 ppm level as well as at or beyond the carbon 600 ppm tipping point extinction level.)
Reason 9: The 20-40% miscalculation of current global warming consequence timetables for many of the 20 worst global warming consequences steals the needed public urgency to act. The world's leading climate authority (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]) regularly miscalculates where we are now or where we will be on our global warming consequences and timetables by 20 to 40%. This underestimation then causes the public to underestimate our current real global warming status and condition. They do not realize that things today are already much worse than we are being told.
Therefore, the public mentally starts with the wrong starting point and a misguided sense of urgency. To see how these reoccurring gross miscalculations have occurred by our authorities because of the politicization of science and other factors, click here.
(After you have read the above gross miscalculation by our authorities article, be sure to learn about the 20 worst global warming consequences here. Most of the consequences will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale over the next 50 years while we try to resolve the problems with reaching the 2025 targets listed on this page. Understanding global warming consequences is essential to understanding how most of humanity will die by mid-century.)
The 20 worst global warming consequences illustrated below create a steadily intensifying "vortex" as heat increases. This intensifying heat draws all the consequences into closer interaction and collision with each other. This process ultimately churns these consequences toward ever-higher levels of global destruction.
(Click the following link for more information on the 20 worst global warming consequences.)
Reason 10: Society's fear of change is also a major cause for the 40 years of social inertia concerning doing what must be done to ever resolve this extinction emergency. If we do not handle this dominant fear of change factor by assuring those whose jobs, livelihoods or assets are threatened we will assist them in this transition and help minimize any losses, it is highly unlikely we will be successful in making the required 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. We must create adequate national and international new job transition training and recovery subsidies and funding that would assist all individuals, businesses, and nations that will suffer significant financial losses or closures because of the rapidly falling use of fossil fuels.
For example, carbon Fee and Dividend revenues (as well as other needed transition taxes,) could help compensate and assist developing nations in stopping using fossil fuels. It will also help developing nations leapfrog over the building or expanding any current fossil fuel energy generation systems directly into building or expanding green energy generation systems like solar or wind power.
We cannot forget to financially both compensate, subsidize and actively assist all of those individuals, businesses, and nations who will be harmed financially in this rapid transition away from fossil fuels. This support would naturally also include providing new job training in positions for the new green economy or positions in other industries.
This step is critical to the success of all global fossil fuel reduction procedures, especially when the needed 2025 reductions are so severe. It is the unsurfaced fear of change and how it will harm the current status quo, which is a major source of the inertia that has prevented humanity from effectively managing the global warming extinction emergency over the last 40 years. (Please see the following research article on cultural trauma, social inertia, and climate change for a deeper understanding of the critical early importance of implementing this fear of change management and compensation step. This research paper will provide a stunning explanation of the many massive social fear barriers we must over-come with little time left. After you read this article, you may come to believe this social fear reason is one of the very biggest challenges we must overcome initially.)
Unfortunately, this is not happening now, has not happened over the last 35 years, and is highly unlikely to happen adequately before we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. (The above was drawn from Part Three of the Job one for Humanity plan.)
Reason 11: The near insolvable problem of global warming justice definitions and global warming restitution and aid processes. In general, the industrialized and northernmost countries of the world have produced by far the most atmospheric carbon which causes global warming and its many consequences. The northern industrial revolution countries have also created most of the global warming consequences for most of the developing world.
In the illustration below, most of the developing world is located mostly between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south. Ironically, the northern industrialized nations that have predominantly caused the global warming problem will often also temporarily benefit from the changes global warming creates to the climate in their countries.
The northern nations who are also most responsible for the global warming harms caused to the developing world are unfairly resisting paying for the damage that they have done to these nations. At the same time, the northern nations are also resisting taking in the existing millions (or the coming billions,) of new global warming climate refugees (climagees.)
In the following illustration, the lands above the 45th parallel north (above the orange line at the top of the illustration.) are where most of the human population will have to migrate as global warming continues to accelerate.
It appears that the developed nations do not want to pay fair and just damages to the developing nations. There also are no international standards of enforceable justice for the undeveloped world to obtain restitution for the damages that the developed world has done to it. This is because there is no standard global definition of justice or responsibility for an ecological and atmospheric damage issue such as this.
With no definition for ecological atmospheric justice and responsibility, it will be all but impossible for the developing world to receive what it should from the developed world. Additionally, the definition of justice and responsibility around the world not only changes in different nations, but it also varies in different cultures, religions, and ethnicities.
Coming to a standard definition of justice and responsibility on who pays fairly for the global warming damage they have caused will likely never happen. As an ongoing sign of this injustice, the developed world has not even paid the previously agreed upon and grossly inadequate amounts that they agreed to pay to the developing world in previous global warming agreements.
This justice issue is highly relevant to eventually resolve the global warming emergency. This is a huge problem because the developed world most likely will never pay a fair and adequate restitution (or assistance,) to the developing world for the damage they have caused. This is because:
a. those restitution costs are not paid just once. They will continue to rise exponentially as global warming accelerates. Damages to the developing countries will run into the hundreds of trillions of dollars.
b. developed countries will need all of their current financial resources to survive and stay up with the ongoing global warming catastrophes occurring in their own countries, and because of
c. inherent known and implicit biases against the cultures, religions, or ethnicities of the developing world by the developed world.
Because of the above, developed nations will also not provide adequate funding to assist the developed world rapidly transition from fossil fuel energy generation to green energy generation and fossil fuel use to green energy use. This means the northernmost countries will use the resources they already have to convert their nations to green energy generation. While at the same time, the developing nations will not have adequate funding to do the same.
This ultimately means that the developing world where most of the world's population now lives will have to continue using fossil fuels at ever-increasing levels as their nations grow. This means we will not be able to stop the global warming extinction emergency and the coming catastrophes because most of the world will not be part of the solution.
Reason 12: The recent and projected crossings of more global warming tipping points, positive feedback loops, and points of no return within the climate system. As we continue crossing more global warming tipping points, more global warming consequences will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale.
This is because:
1. The points of no return before a tipping point is crossed as well as the crossed tipping point itself, create a "slippery slope" situation. In this "slippery slope" situation, it becomes far easier for that consequence to worsen more quickly and at a far steeper gradient.
2. tipping points when crossed create sudden and extremely difficult to recover from steep drop-offs or complete system crashes,
3. any positive feedback loop contained within the global warming tipping point processes will also significantly amplify either the positive or negative consequences of that tipping point, and
4. a crossed tipping point within a system or subsystem tends to push other tipping points over their tipping points in the subsystems or systems interconnected to or interdependent with the original tipping point.
Understanding the 11 major global warming tipping points along with the Climageddon Scenario is essential to understanding how and why most of humanity will die by mid-century. This horrible outcome will occur if we fail to hit the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets mentioned above.
Please click here to read more about the 11 critical global warming tipping points below and what they will mean to how fast your life will change as more of them are crossed.
Reason 13: The steady rise of methane in the atmosphere from new releases of methane from fracking, melting permafrost, tundra, and leaking natural gas lines act as a hidden source of our global fossil-fuel reduction failure.
Unfortunately, we will most probably cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction level. Crossing carbon 600 ppm will result in raising the average global temperature to 5°C (9 degrees Fahrenheit) and bring about massive methane clathrate releases from ocean coastal shelves.
This has happened before in the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum 56 million years ago, and most notably the Permian–Triassic extinction event, when up to 96% of all marine species became extinct, 252 million years ago. (Please click here to watch a short video that brilliantly explains the extinction process once we start releasing methane clathrate from our coastal shelves. New research shows we begin this release process once we reach 5°C and by 6°C, it is in full bloom.)
Because methane released as a gas from methane clathrate is 86 times more potent than carbon as a temperature-increasing greenhouse gas, it will rapidly spike up the average global temperatures once again and eventually to extinction-accelerating levels.
Please click here to see a terrifying interactive global atmospheric methane graph. In this fantastic interactive methane graph, you can see the past 1,000 years of atmospheric methane levels. You can see how total atmospheric methane levels from all sources have exponentially skyrocketed, particularly during the last 50 years. We strongly recommend that you take a few moments and review this powerful methane graph. (If you are a tech person, its underlying documentation is also available.)
If methane also continues to rise to help push us toward the carbon 600 ppm tipping point and an average global temperature of 5°C, it will eventually bring about the extinction of most if not all of humanity (most of humanity) and the end of civilization as we know it.
(Please note: There is also a concerted effort by the fracking industry to prevent the accurate measurement of methane in the atmosphere to keep the growing total methane release amounts from the fracking process hidden from the public.) When you add in the effects of methane (measured in part as CO2e,) for raising our temperature along with the impact of carbon, we are probably already well above our current carbon 414 ppm [around 430 CO2e+].)
Reason 14: The publicly unknown effects of the soon crossed two key extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points. The general public has been kept unaware that unless we hit or come very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and staying below carbon 425-450 ppm, there is no mathematical way to prevent crossing the carbon 500 ppm tipping point where all ice on earth will melt!
Beyond the math, there are numerous climate scientists who also believe that crossing the carbon 500 ppm is ALREADY inevitable because soon we will be passing other climate, biological and human system tipping points discussed on this page (and at this page.) This being locked into carbon 500 ppm already factor does not include the other accelerating global warming positive feedback loops occurring as you are reading this throughout our climate system. (Positive feedback loops enhance or amplify changes; this also tends to move a system away from its normal equilibrium state and make it more unstable. In this way, positive feedback loops are not too unlike tipping points.)
If we do cross the near-final extinction tipping point of carbon 500 ppm, it is highly probable that not long afterward (about 20-30 years,) we will not be able to stop ourselves from reaching the carbon 600 ppm final extinction tipping point.
The climate scientists who believe that we cannot prevent crossing carbon 500 ppm also believe that no matter what we do now, we also have already missed our window of control to prevent carbon 600 ppm. Furthermore, they believe that once we have crossed the carbon 500 ppm-level, we will not be able to keep from reaching the insane carbon 800 ppm-level. (Reaching carbon 800 ppm could also occur because of our adding more carbon in the atmosphere and because of the total accumulating effects of crossing more and more global warming tipping points, which will occur even more rapidly after crossing the carbon 500 ppm threshold.)
Our reading of the current science indicates that if we do not immediately reach the previously described 2025 radical fossil fuel reductions, we will cross the carbon 600 ppm-level. Even if we do achieve the necessary 2025 global fossil fuel cuts or, get very close to them, we still may be able to slow down crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point long enough to save a small portion of humanity and transfer needed infrastructure into global warming safer zones.
At worst, even if we can not still prevent crossing the carbon 600 ppm level, we can at least, slow it down as well as some of the other worst coming global warming consequences. Slowing down crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point will be a Herculean task. It will take massive global governmental cooperation and mobilization.
There is some good news here. The probability that we can at least temporarily, slow, and delay some of the 20 worst global warming consequences by hitting our 2025 targets is still achievable. More importantly, this will allow us more time to get prepared for the many global warming consequences we can no longer avoid no matter what we do!)
What do the two extinction-accelerating tipping points mean to you right now?
It is essential to be realistic for your future planning. As you can see the probability that we will cross the carbon 500 and carbon 600 ppm tipping points are far too high. By 2025 if we have not made the radical fossil fuel cuts necessary the final window of opportunity to prevent passing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point will close
This is because of the:
a. temperature momentum already "baked" into the climate system (the existing carbon 414 ppm level already in the atmosphere,)
b. the additional three or more carbon particles per million we continue to add to the atmosphere each year (as we keep failing to reverse our fossil fuel use adequately,) and,
c. The additional global warming tipping points we will continue to cross at an even faster rate if we miss our 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets. And finally,
d. If we fail to reach or come close to the 2025 reduction targets, we are not just facing a mass extinction event we are facing total extinction! This is because we will cross the carbon 600 ppm-level. This is the level where we will also enter the beginning phases of run-away global warming! (If you are not sure about how much worse it can possibly get if we enter a run-away global warming total extinction phase, click its link in the previous sentence.)
Also never forget that at the 5°C average global temperature increase which will occur once we hit carbon 600 ppm and above, a large portion of humanity will have died of starvation. This starvation will be due to the devastating effect that increased heat will have on crop failure.
This mass starvation will also come from global warming's other consequences or critical tipping points being crossed. Economies, governments, and societies also will collapse in many areas of the world between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south.
As we reach the carbon 500 ppm and carbon 600 ppm tipping point levels, we will cross into the most dangerous later phases (4 and 5) of the 6-phase Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown model (Climageddon Scenario.) At this point, please review the following Climageddon Extinction Scenario illustration starting from the bottom up! (It is the large diagram two sections down.)
The top of the diagram below shows you the later Climageddon Scenario consequences. The bottom shows you the earlier consequences.
At this point, it is necessary to take a slight detour before continuing with the reasons why the 2025 target failure is probable. This detour is because most individuals do not understand how and why will become out of our control if we cross the carbon 425, 500, and 600 ppm levels.
How the three extinction-accelerating tipping points of carbon 425, 500, and 600 ppm collectively further create the condition where global warming becomes out of humanity's future control
What most people really do not realize about crossing the above three extinction-accelerating tipping points of carbon 425, 500 and 600 ppm is that, at some point not long after passing them, it will be "too little too late" to make any real difference in avoiding the worst global warming catastrophes at some future point when we finally do begin making the required fossil fuel reductions. This loss of control is because soon after we cross the carbon 425 ppm tipping point, we begin to trigger other natural climate system tipping points. After we cross carbon 425 ppm, we trigger larger naturally increasing methane releases from the tundra, permafrost, and ocean shelves. We will also eventually trigger massive additional natural carbon releases from our deep oceans, trees, and soils.
Eventually, these natural system tipping points will also go into positive feedback loops with each other. These activated positive feedback loops will further intensify the crossing of more natural tipping points.
These positive feedback loops within the climate's natural systems increase the average global temperature. This further triggers increased-heat caused releases of more naturally generated methane and carbon from the tundra and permafrost, which once again, further increases average global temperature in an endless cycle. Unfortunately, these increasing temperatures will go on and on until the Earth finally corrects itself hundreds or thousands of years in the future.
Unlike humanity's remaining ability to control its use or not use of fossil fuels, if we cross the three previously mentioned natural climate system tipping points, the future is almost exclusively under nature's control! There is little to nothing we can do to keep the other natural sources of carbon and methane from becoming a runaway train of ever-increasing average global temperature.
Humanity's inability to control these large and complex natural systems, tipping points, and positive feedback loops IS the crucial reason why we cannot fail to meet the 2025 global targets or get very close to them. If we do, as soon as 2025, we will let any remaining control of the global warming extinction emergency slip out of our hands for many human lifespans.
We do not have until 2050 to make the required global fossil fuel reductions to save ourselves as many governments and fossil fuel companies want you to believe. We also do not have until 2040, 2035, or even 2030 to make the required fossil fuel reductions as many prominent but ill-informed environmental groups want you to believe.
We have only until 2025 to make the required global fossil fuel cuts to prevent going over the carbon 425 ppm tipping point and losing all meaningful control of our global warming future!
This emergency creates a 600 trillion dollar question hanging in the air. Why aren't the brightest minds in the world's intelligence agencies screaming at their national politicians about this nearly out-of-control emergency? Why aren't they making our politicians understand this is our last window of control to keep a super-destructive new global warming Pandora from getting out of her box? (600 trillion dollars plus is the estimate for the total global costs that we will occur if we survive, and if we go over the tipping point and trigger the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction tipping point and the carbon 600 ppm final-extinction tipping point as discussed above.)
Why aren't our intelligence agencies (as well as the world's wealthiest individuals and corporations,) shaming our politicians into realizing that they have exposed ALL of humanity to an imminent and irrational extinction risk?
Why aren't these recognized as risk and threat levels that should NEVER be endured or justified?
So, let's work together with the appropriate urgency and do what needs to be done using the Job One Plan to fix this emergency before it is too late.
(The above-listed natural climate tipping points and positive feedback loops are complicated, but we have simplified their descriptions and interactions on this page. This page will help you understand how the increasing methane releases from the tundra, permafrost, and ocean shelves occur. It will also help you know how massive new carbon releases from our deep oceans, trees, and soils will occur.)
Why Climageddon awaits us if we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets
The Climageddon Scenario Cascading Meltdown and countdown illustration below reflects the unfolding natural progression of ever-worsening consequences, tipping points, and human system processes that will accelerate as the global warming emergency continues. These consequences, tipping points, and human systems will individually and collectively collide with each other.
This will cause them to adversely interact, which then will multiply and synergize many of each other's most harmful effects. It is these ever-increasing, heat-fueled cumulative interactions among and between worsening global warming consequences, tipping points, and human systems that will make almost every one of them worse faster and faster.
This illustration below illuminates the final core processes that will lead to our mass extinction as well as global economic, political, and social chaos. Its three levels of global warming interactions (consequences, tipping points, and human systems,) highlight a continuous onslaught of crises and catastrophes that we are already beginning to experience. These levels of interaction foretell our eventual extinction.
Starting reading this illustration from the bottom because that is how Climageddon will unfold.
More about the carbon 600 ppm extinction level tipping point
When we reach the carbon 600 ppm tipping point, we trigger the final processes that will bring about the extinction of most of humanity (if not more and as soon as 2063-2072, or earlier.) Where in that 2063-2072 time range, we will reach carbon 600 ppm will be determined by which tipping points we cross and how much we add more carbon to our atmosphere each year.)
But, extinction will not begin only when we reach carbon 600 ppm. Global civilization will have begun collapsing and mass die-offs will occur long before we have reached the carbon 600 ppm tipping point level. At or near carbon 600 ppm the unlucky survivors will enter into an ecological and climate hell. A new dark age will make the survivors of the following centuries curse us and wish they were dead.
(The global warming consequences, tipping points, and human system factors (shown above,) will be interacting and colliding with each other in 6 distinct phases and waves. At some point, after you finish this document, we strongly recommend that you read about the 6 phases and waves of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and countdown here. In detail, it describes the timetables and consequences of our global warming future if we miss the 2025 targets.)
As if the proceeding reasons alone are not enough to prove that global warming is already out of our meaningful control for the next 30-50 years, here is another reason.
Reason 15: No one is really driving the global governance "car."
We do not have any effective global government or governance (the car without a driver) overseeing the wellbeing of humanity and the Earth as a whole. What we have now is competing nations seeking their own selfish best interests most frequently at the expense of other countries, peoples, and the environment.
One does not have to be a genius to know cars in motion without a driver always eventually crash!
It is unlikely that we will establish a true global government or some other form of effective global governance with legislative, executive, and judicial powers working for the benefit of ALL humanity as a whole within the next 3-5 decades if ever. Consequently, it is near certain that will we not get all of the needed global warming extinction prevention actions listed in Part 3 of the Job One Plan done in time. Consequently, the car of humanity without an effective global government will crash and go over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point.
Reason 16: The adverse effects of climate momentum and inertia factors also discourage public action and change. Because of complex climate momentum and inertia factors which will delay experiencing the results of any fossil fuel reductions we make today by 20-30 years or more. This will make the painful changes we need to make today without seeing results for decades far less likely to occur.
Politicians telling their citizens they will need to make painful sacrifices now and not see any results of those sacrifices for decades is not likely to be a popular or successful process. (The many complex climate momenta and inertia factors are discussed in detail in the book Climageddon.)
Additionally but related, climate change occurs within a complex adaptive system. Complex adaptive systems are, by nature very very complex and sophisticated and well beyond the understanding of most of the population. To truly understand what is happening with climate change and global warming, one would have to extensively study the topic and think from a dialectical complex adaptive systems perspective. With the average human intelligence level being at about a 100 IQ level, the more profound understanding of the urgency and truth of the global warming extinction emergency is unfortunately out of many individuals' reach.
Reason 17: The citizens of the world rising as a single powerful voice to demand their politicians act immediately to save the future may not likely happen in time to save us either.
This is because:
a. at the current time, there is too little cooperation between the world's environmental organizations to mass organize the world's population to get enough of the population (a minimum of 3.5% to have a 50% chance of success,) protesting in the streets at the same time on the singular issue of the global warming extinction emergency. (Please see this just published [as of February 17, 2020,] very important new article for what would have to happen quickly for us to have a 3.5% or more public protest success in this area.)
b. unless there is a cooperation miracle or some new global warming catastrophe similar in impact to the 2020 COVID19 global pandemic bringing us all together in a shocking awareness of how bad it is and for the need of immediate change, creating a general understanding in the public of how bad things are and then getting the public to demand their politicians' act will probably take decades at the minimum. This time delay is because of the slow-moving process of education and consensus-building. It is also because of widespread global warming denial and the intentional and well-funded disinformation programs being executed by fossil fuel-related industries and the politicians they control.
c. there is a well-financed and highly effective global disinformation campaign run by the fossil fuel industries. The purpose of this disinformation is to try to confuse or impair the ability of average citizens to understanding how bad global warming is right now. It's purpose also is to ensure average citizens do not know how bad it is going to get, or how soon things are going to come crashing down on top of us. These disinformation campaigns freeze the average citizens in continuous doubt and uncertainty loop. This disinformation also freezes the desire or ability of the world's citizens to act and demand the needed changes. It helps maintain public inaction and inertia.
d. making the required fossil fuel reductions will impose incredible hardship and discomfort on the individuals of the world. The painful sacrifices needed will make it very difficult to get billions of people demanding less comfort and mobility from their politicians.
e. understanding the global warming extinction emergency is incredibly complex. To adequately understand the threat, an individual would have to have above-average intelligence, (IQ 130+.) They would also have to have read thousands of pages of global warming research, understand systems theory or, have an equivalent of a Ph.D. in climatology.
f. 16% of the human population can't read at all. A significant remaining percentage of the human population does not have the discipline or ability to educate themselves sufficiently on the nature of this complex challenge to understand it as a real emergency.
The above educational and political process most likely will not happen in time with this kind of complex educational emergency. There is not enough time before 2025 to get everyone educated on this issue. There also is most likely not enough time to get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets met once the politicians are finally influenced to act.
The primary and most likely good that will come out of increasing mass public protests is that we will get the politicians to act sooner. That will slow down the global warming extinction nightmare just enough so that those individuals forewarned have extra time to prepare and adapt so that their lives are longer and more comfortable during the extinction process.
Reason 18: The COVID-19 pandemic.
The COVID-19 pandemic, which is expected to last around the world until at least 2023-2025 presents a unique set of problems for reducing global fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 targets. During the pandemic, people are so preoccupied with pandemic precautions and limitations that most global warming protest actions have come to a screaming halt.
Economies have dropped fast in most countries, and far more people have become concerned about eating their next meal, losing their jobs, or being evicted. There is little bandwidth left for the slower-moving, far worse global warming extinction emergency.
Reducing fossil fuels enough during the pandemic to get close to the 2025 global targets will push the current global economy into a hole. Few politicians would support significantly worsening the economy when it has already hit hard, and no one is really sure how long it will take to recover from our COVID mistakes or all of the new Covid mutations and variants.
Think about our history here. We did not prepare for or prevent the global spread of COVID-19 when our best scientists told us exactly how to do that decades ago. How are we ever going to manage the consequences of the far worse emergency of accelerating global warming that our scientists have been warning us about for over 40 years?
How are we ever going to get people to radically reduce their fossil fuel use to prevent something occurring slowly and invisibly over decades when we can't even get a large portion of the population in well-educated countries to get the proven Covid vaccine despite seeing every day in the media thousands of people dying horrible deaths from Covid in the intensive care wards of their nation's hospitals.
We are currently seeing resistance from 20-30% of global population to getting a Covid vaccine that takes little time, resources, or suffering. So how will we ever convince the world they will need to make painful and enormous sacrifices that will last for decades and cause them consistent and immense discomfort? But, unfortunately, that is precisely what we must do if we are ever to reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
Reason 19: Humans are terrible at recognizing and adapting to slow-moving, nearly invisible, small incremental changes. If a tiger is chasing us and we see it, we mobilize quickly to flee. But with the slow-moving, almost invisible, and small incremental changes of escalating global warming, we are like the experimental frogs that do not jump out of a slowly heating pot until they are cooked alive!
Additionally, humans do not seem to learn quickly or efficiently without a painful experience or tragedy. Few (less than 5%,) learn from reviewing hard data or history. Collectively our learning ability seems even worse. History has shown us with a preponderance of the evidence that governments, organizations, and groups seem to learn and set new policies and take new actions only after some horrendous tragedy or catastrophe has occurred. This collective learning and prevention inability happens over and over again throughout our history, even though the tragedy or catastrophe was visible and discussed long before it occurred.
This seeming evolutionary disability is what may be one of the most compelling reasons to doubt that we will effectively manage the global warming extinction emergency before it is too late.
Reason 20: Accelerating global warming is not our only current major global emergency! There are 11 other major global emergencies that will interact with global warming and continue to draw needed human and financial resources away from resolving the global warming emergency. Click here to read about these other 11 major global emergencies and how they will interact with global warming, making it far harder to solve.
Reason 21: Our governments are not even close to mass-mobilizing all of the needed human, financial and other resources needed to achieve or come even close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
One of the most important reasons we will not get close enough to the 2025 targets is left for last. Individual actions alone, not even if done by hundreds of millions of us, will get us to the 2025 global reduction target levels. To succeed in reaching the 2025 targets, only a massive global mobilization done and led by our governments can work. It must be completed with a Manhattan Project or World War II mass mobilization-like urgency. (The Manhattan Project was the highest priority research and development undertaking during World War II that produced the first nuclear weapons in just four years. No expense or resource was denied to this most senior project. No expense or resource was also denied to the US military while mass mobilizing for World War II.)
Without the following actions being done with the urgency of a Manhattan-like project or WWII-like mass mobilization by almost ALL world governments, there is little to no realistic hope we can avoid a mass extinction of most of humanity by or before mid-century.
These last few reasons maybe what are the most important reasons of all.
Reason 22: We already went over the adjusted climate cliff in 2015.
What has been known as the climate cliff is the climate point you go over which begins the runaway global warming process.
Before discussing the climate cliff, it is essential to understand the idea of runaway global warming. It means that global warming will increase on a runaway course. Imagine a train going down a hill with no functional brakes and you have a good concept of it! Runaway global warming will also continue, of, and by itself with no practical way to stop or control it.
In our 2016-17 analysis, using the existing fossil fuel infrastructure, we at Job One calculated that the first climate cliff for triggering a runaway crossing of more and more amplifying global warming tipping points would occur between carbon 425 to carbon 450 ppm and at a 2 degrees Celcius temperature increase over preindustrial levels. Due to new research and a re-analysis of older studies, the updated carbon ppm level and temperature associated with the climate cliff has changed.
The beginning temperature limits for the former climate cliff needs to be updated from its previous temperature level of 2 -2.7° C above preindustrial levels to its new climate cliff starting point, which is staying below an average global temperature increase of 1.5C.
One of the major reasons for the new 1.5C climate cliff temperature level now being acknowledged among recognized climate scientists is that there are considerably more atmospheric carbon emissions than was previously predicted. These additional carbon emissions come from other amplifying carbon feedbacks and carbon sink failures. This additional carbon feedback and carbon sink issue will start to show up as a 1.5C average global temperature increase as soon as 2025. (The amplifying carbon feedbacks and carbon sink failures will be described in detail further below.)
Newer research also shows that staying at or below a 1.5 C average global temperature increase level (above preindustrial levels) is the only temperature level that excludes the runaway global warming threat or continuing to cross additional critical global warming tipping points. What this really means is that going above 1.5C would eventually lead to the mass extinction of most of humanity by mid-century.
Staying below the older 2C average global temperature increase only minimizes the possibility, but does not exclude, the mass extinction of most of humanity by mid-century. (Please note that this older 2C limit calculation by the United Nations IPCC did not include adequate tipping point calculations, it did wrongly include magical compensatory carbon capture calculations for technology that might not exist for thirty years, and it did not include many other critical calculation factors described here.)
By mid-century when the suffering and survival of most of humanity is at stake, just minimizing the current global warming extinction threat is insane! Additionally, in its eventual effect, any average global temperature increase above 2C is moot.
It is moot because any temperature increase of 1.5 to 2C also triggers runaway global warming and a mass extinction event fueled by crossing ever more critical global warming tipping points! And, if nothing is done by our governments to radically slow and reverse any temperature increases above 1.5C that are reached, total extinction will also be our eventual future.
Supporting this 1.5C new climate cliff is also the Siberia permafrost field research (rather than less accurate computer modeling) by Anton Vaks. This research puts the global permafrost "thaw-down" at 1.5C. This Siberian research means that when the world's permafrost crosses this 1.5C average global temperature increase tipping point, the world's permafrost begins a near-continuous meltdown. This means that after we reach this 1.5 C temperature increase, all permafrost stored carbon and methane will eventually be released from the permafrost.
This 1.5C permafrost release point plus other human-made carbon and methane releases put us squarely on the fast track for the worst global warming prediction scenarios. (Click here for more documentation on the permafrost meltdown.)
The big climate cliff shocker. . .
The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has calculated that reaching the carbon 420 ppm level is equivalent to a 1.6C average global temperature increase from preindustrial levels. If we can stay below a 1.5C temperature increase, we would have to have kept our atmospheric carbon level below 386 ppm, but as of 2020, we are already at carbon 414 ppm.
Crossing this 386 carbon ppm level also means that 2015 was around the time that we had already crossed over the 1.5C correct climate cliff. Because we went over the climate cliff in 2015, and because any average global temperature increase of 1.5 to 2C triggers runaway global warming, we now have to face we are already in a state of runaway global warming and that we can no longer stop a mass human extinction event by mid-century, but we can slow it down if we reach the 2025 targets.
Yes, you read that correctly! At this time, all we can do now is slow and delay this mass extinction event consequence and it will take a government-driven mass mobilization. This government-driven mass mobilization would have to radically reduce global fossil fuel use to get very close to the difficult to reach 2025 targets.
If the world governments do act immediately and reach the last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, more people will live longer and a bit more comfortably. And, maybe we can still save humanity from the only thing worse than mass extinction, - - - total extinction!
And finally, the most important thing to remember from this new research update on the older climate cliff level is that we have already fallen over the 1.5C, carbon 386 ppm climate cliff. We are on the pathway to mass extinction by mid-century.
Unless our governments get us to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, runaway global warming will move so fast that we will not be able to stop the total extinction of humanity and the collapse of civilization.
The carbon feedback loops, loss of carbon sinks, points of no return, and tipping points that are occurring after we crossed the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff
1. Decreased albedo from reduced snow cover and melting Arctic ice increasing the earth's heat,
2. Increased sea ice and glacier melt resulting in additional sea-level rise,
3. Increased atmospheric water vapor increases resulting in more extreme weather,
4. Increased permafrost and tundra heating releases more carbon and methane and which results in more heat and more disease epidemics and possible pandemics. This once again speeds up the whole process of more positive feedback loops and crossing more points of no return and tipping points.
Please also note that melting permafrost in the tundra is because the northernmost areas are also warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. This permafrost melting also has the potential to cause new local and global pandemics caused by ancient viruses and bacteria being released from the permafrost. Already in Siberia they have had localized anthrax and smallpox outbreaks because of the decomposition of ancient frozen animals from the melting permafrost and tundra which residents either had no immunity to and who were not prepared to deal with these outbreaks due to lack of available vaccines.
5. Decreased carbon capture from the world's forests as temperatures rise and forests go from removing carbon from the atmosphere to carbon-neutral, no longer removing carbon from the atmosphere. Carbon neutral is the state that occurs before overheated over-stressed forests begin to release carbon back into the atmosphere.
(Click here to learn more about each item listed above.)
Here is the most likely keystone tipping point to be crossed after crossing the carbon 386 climate cliff
There is an extinction-accelerating tipping point area that is the most likely first candidate to significantly worsen the beginning of the end of humanity. It is the increased melting of summer and year-round arctic polar ice due to global warming.
It will truly have profound effects not only on worldwide weather but more importantly, on lowering global crop yields and increasing global crop failures. It will cause an accelerating massive global starvation, which will then also destabilize national economics, politics, and society.
In the summer, when Arctic ice melts there is less cooling of all of the growing season areas affected anywhere by arctic weather. The more polar ice melts each year the less cooling and the more heat in and during these critical growing season areas.
To make matters worse, food crops are more sensitive to heat when there are droughts and, they are more sensitive to heat, rain bombs, and cold spells when they are just beginning to grow. Unfortunately, because more ice is melting in the Arctic ocean almost every summer and staying melted longer in the year we are losing more and more critical cooling for our absolutely vital food crop growing season.
The five major food grains are the largest source of the world's food supply. They are corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, and sorghum.
All of these grains have upper and lower temperature limits. Most of them cannot survive more than 10 days during their growing season over 100° Fahrenheit particularly, if this heat comes early in their growing season or when their soils are drought dry.
Because of the continually increasing loss of the cooling effect on growing regions below the Arctic because of the continually diminishing Arctic ice, the number of growing season days with temperatures over 100° will continue increasing steadily as more and more Arctic ice melts and remains melted longer throughout the year.
Because melting Arctic ice also affects and disrupts the jet stream and ocean currents like the Gulf Stream, you will also have radical and unseasonable cold spells appearing during the prime crop growing seasons around the world. This will also reduce food yields and produce more crop failures during the fragile growing season.
This means that the world is going to continue to experience more and larger crop reductions and failures as more polar ice melts and stays melted longer. To make matters even worse, corn is one of the largest food staples for humanity and it is also one of the most sensitive crops to increasing 100 degrees plus temperatures and drought.
The following is from Wikipedia:
“Since 1979, the minimum annual area of sea ice in the Arctic has dropped by about 40%, as measured each September. From sea ice models and recent satellite images, it can be expected that a sea ice-free summer will come before 2020. Models that best match historical trends project a nearly ice-free Arctic in the summer by the 2030s. However, these models do tend to underestimate the rate of sea ice loss since 2007.” (If you would like to see a video of how more polar ice is melting each summer as the years go by click here for this NASA video.)
The increasing melting of arctic polar ice is a clear warning sign of increasing global warming and future serious reductions in major future crop yields as well as serious increases in future crop failures. This means not only higher prices but ever-increasing food scarcity and increasing global starvation.
This is not something far-off in the future. It is already happening in many areas of the world.
It is also already causing major migrations. This expanding and increasing polar ice melting is a major “canary in the coal mine” for increasing future mass starvation not way off in 2100 as we have been told but in the near years and new few decades to follow.
Already in the growing belt of the United States, we are seeing increased and record-breaking heat, droughts, rain bombs, and other extreme seasonal weather that is having a direct effect in reducing crop yields and crop failures in the most vulnerable areas. This pattern of greater crop yield reductions and crop failures will continue to increase as long as more polar ice disappears and the Arctic remains relatively ice-free into longer and longer summers. As the process of massive crop reductions and failures expand and continues, mass starvation will begin to destabilize all of our other economic, social, and political systems.
Additionally, reduced polar ice also reduces the albedo effect, which simply is that white snow or ice reflects heat back away from the earth and out into the atmosphere keeping the earth cooler. As more Arctic polar ice is melted the darker polar oceans absorb the heat, and then heat up more, which once again, causes more global warming.
As temperatures continue rising, the time frames in which we will be crossing more of the tipping points listed above will get shorter. But that will not be the only significant effect of melting Arctic ice due to global warming. Paradoxically, according to new studies, because of melting Arctic ice we will also have more extreme cold and heavier snows during the US winters.
In general, increased crop yield reductions and crop failures will increasingly occur because of arctic ice melt, increased heat, increased droughts, increase cold spells, and increased extreme weather storms that will make it more and more impossible for modern agriculture and the major food crops to survive throughout their current growing seasons. There are estimates that crop yield reductions and crop failures will average 5 to 10% or more for each degree that the average global temperature rises until the planet becomes so warm that far too many days of the growing season will be at 100° or more. This will make successfully growing the world's major grains all but impossible.
The current climate cliff and 1.5C temperature increase threshold was the last threshold for excluding humanity's mass extinction threat by mid-century. Staying below 1.5C was also the last threshold where we still could have prevented a significant acceleration in crossing other more dangerous global warming tipping points. Without even reading the four other extinction-accelerating tipping points in this link, one can see that while you do your best to encourage our governments to meet the 2025 targets, it is also now wise to start your personal global warming emergency backup plan and "Plan B!"
(Click here to see what is happening now and going to happen now that we have gone well over the climate cliff. It will explain the four extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points that we are racing towards and what we must do to prevent extinction!)
Reason 23: We are already well over all rational safe limits for protecting the future of humanity. Because we have ignored 40 years of warmings, we are already deep into the global warming trajectory toward the collapse of civilization. This collapse outcome is highly likely because 9 of the known global warming and climate change tipping points that regulate the state of the planet have all been activated toward their own internal tipping points.
The nine tipping points below can trigger abrupt and significant carbon releases back into the atmosphere, such as the release of carbon dioxide and methane caused by the irreversible thawing of the Arctic permafrost.
After these global warming tipping points are crossed, additional warming would become self-sustaining due to both positive feedback loops within the climate system and the mutual interaction of these global warming tipping points. It is best to think about interacting with global warming tipping points like a row of dominos.
These climate system tipping points are so interconnected that knocking over the first couple of "dominos" will most likely lead to a cascade knocking over many, if not all, of them. Once the above global warming tipping point "dominos" begin their falling cascade, we are already at a criminally negligent point of no return.
Because of these global warming tipping points and feedbacks, Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director emeritus and founder of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, believes that if we go much above 2° C, we will quickly get to 4° C and, a 4° C increase would spell the end of human civilization.
Distinguished Professor of Meteorology Michael Mann from the University of Pennsylvania recently stated that once we reach the carbon 405 ppm level in our atmosphere, a 2 degrees C average global temperature increase is already baked in! Once that happens there is nothing we can do to stop it! As of June 2020, we are currently at carbon 420 ppm.
Check out the following exponentially rising current atmospheric carbon levels in parts per million in the graph below. This rise is happening in spite of the 20 plus past global climate conferences and decades of international government agreements to reduce global fossil fuel use!
Johan Rockström, the head of one of Europe's leading research institutes, warned that in a 4°C warmer world, it would be "difficult to see how we could accommodate a billion people or even half of that. Not even a rich minority world survive with modern lifestyles in the post 4°C-warmer turbulent, conflict-ridden world".
Many other climate scientists have warned that once the climate warms 4 degrees C over our preindustrial average global temperature, human adaptation to these temperature levels will be all but impossible!
Soon we will lose control of the tipping points for the Amazon rainforest, the West Antarctic ice sheet, and the Greenland ice sheet in much less time than it's going to take us to get to global net-zero emissions. There is also a crucial way to think about this race to get to net-zero emissions before we cross more extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points.
Imagine that the captain on the Titanic suddenly sees the iceberg in front of him. He needs at least 3 miles to slow and steer the Titanic, but he is only 1 mile away from the iceberg. The titanic is already doomed the moment the captain notices the iceberg.
This Titanic example is not much different than our current situation. (Our trying to reach the last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and get to net-zero emissions.) We have wasted so much time over the previous 35 years ignoring valid scientific warnings; we probably do not have enough time remaining to "steer" away from extinction.
We already have a baked-in minimal 2 degrees C in average global temperature increase and, we have triggered a global tipping point cascade effect, which will quickly get us to 4°C and the collapse of civilization. These facts will rapidly take us to a far less habitable planet and climate regardless of any additional fossil fuel emission reductions we might now make.
(At the end of this document, you can learn more about the Job One for Humanity Plan, which will make the best of either situation. Us either hitting the 2025 global targets or, what we need to do prepare over the next few decades as our civilization collapses.)
Reason 24: Could this be the ultimate reason why our governments must work together and mass-mobilize all of the needed resources to at least, get very close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets, or NO ONE may survive?
As if the above 23 reasons were not bad enough, there are other hyper-critical factors that need to be carefully considered and planned for in the nightmare post-carbon 500 and carbon 600 ppm global warming scenario that we are now all facing:
1. Bt this point, every rational individual should be convinced that they need to do everything they can to get their governments to do everything described in Part 3 of the Job One Plan to slow and lessen global warming so they can survive. Unfortunately, there is still more very bad news.
As global warming worsens to its near-extinction levels, we will also have to deal with the following humanity and civilization-ending realities:
a. Nuclear reactors in global warming unsafe zones between the 45th parallel north and south (about 400,) will no longer be able to be kept secure or maintained by stable or functioning governments as global warming worsens and many of these governments enter social chaos and fail. If these nuclear reactors go critical and meltdown, it will not matter where you migrate to in the world.
No location or bunker will be safe from the massive continuous fallout and radiation from scores if not hundreds of reactors that will eventually go critical and spew radiation for centuries! The same holds true for all biological and chemical weapons or toxic chemicals stored in any areas with collapsing or collapsed governments. Once those areas are generally abandoned and are lawless and in chaos and no longer properly managed by functioning governments, these world-ending toxic commodities will slowly leak out or be seized and poison and kill areas far beyond their original locations.
b. Critical food production above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south will be extremely limited because the general soil quality and then lower seasonal sunlight amounts will be grossly inadequate using traditional or existing methods to grow enough food for the desperate billions of climagees migrating to these areas. Somehow the governments of the world will have to cooperate to justly and carefully limit how many people can occupy the very limited global warming safer zones and still be fed adequately.
Trying to carefully limit the number of people who can inhabit the few global warming safer zones by force or special lottery will of itself create unimaginable mass social chaos, panic, and conflict that will keep those living in the global warming safer zones under continuous threat and uncertainty. Anyone living in those very limited safer zones will only have temporary relief.
c. On the other hand, if you do not allow enough diverse individuals from the global warming unsafe zones to migrate, there will not be enough human genetic diversity to survive the waves of new diseases that will burn through the far north or far south because of thousands of-year-old unknown and known pathogens released from the melting permafrost (which humanity has never seen before and has no immunity.) Additionally, these global warming safer zones will also be under threat from new pathogens or existing pathogens that are always mutating. Only adequate genetic diversity will be our best guarantee that at least someone will survive.
d. In order for any of us to survive in any way close to what we are used to, the world’s key infrastructure for a modern functioning civilization to continue must be moved within the next 5-15 years using all of the relative political, economic and social stability which still remains. This means we need to begin immediately moving key industries like medical, pharmaceutical, manufacturing, etc. as well as key and adequate administrative, policing, and other social structures into the global warming safe zones above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south.
e. As nations struggle to deal with the rising chaos and demand lands in the safer zones from their neighbors, we will be very lucky if nuclear or biological war does not break out before global warming ends us first
f. And finally, if we miss the 2025 targets by a significant amount, we will also move from just the horrendous threat of an unavoidable mass extinction event (where most of humanity will perish,) to the ultimate danger of a total extinction event where temperatures will keep rising in an unstoppable run-away effect, and nothing will survive.
At some point, even the most optimistic person will recognize nothing will save them from this global warming meltdown monster if we don't get global fossil fuel usage under control by 2025. From that total of everything we are facing, they will also realize that we either cooperate and work together or we die together.
"We are no longer in just an emergency to prevent global warming from getting worse. We are in an all-out war to slow down the mass extinction of most of humanity by mid-century.
As long as we keep thinking about preventing global warming from getting worse or just dealing with "climate change," we are continuing to focus on the wrong targets and we will most likely fail to prevent our own extinction. We and our governments need to shift our total focus to the sole goal of slowing down the coming global warming mass extinction predicted by mid-century. If we do this, we might also prevent total extinction occurring even later." Lawrence Wollersheim
If you have not read about the six phases of the Climageddon Scenario, which take you through the painful details level-by-level as humanity moves closer to extinction, please do so soon by clicking here.
Reason 25: Covid has taught us the bitter truth that a large portion of the population will resist wise and urgent change no matter what!
Particularly in the US, Covid has taught us about 30% of the population will resist wise and urgent change. All one has to do is view how about 1/3 of the US population has steadfastly refused to get a COvid vaccine despite the vaccines being free and readily available. Furthermore, 1/3 of the population has remained steadfast in refusing the Covid vaccine despite a massive daily media education program of seeing people dying in emergency hospital departments and even saying they wished they had received the vaccine before they died.
This ongoing resistance to an urgent emergency that individuals can quickly see the deadly effects of tells you something about how hard it will be to mass mobilize the world to stop the global warming extinction emergency. In part because the far more deadly slow-moving global warming emergency is harder to see and understand. Also, because the fossil fuel industry produces 1/3 of the world's gross domestic product and provides tens of millions of higher pay jobs, the avid resistance and avoidance to making the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reductions will never stop.
Asking every person and every company worldwide to reduce their total fossil fuel use by 75% to meet the extinction-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets will produce massive resistance. This human structural resistance (along with the other 25 problems listed above) will slow down the needed global fossil fuel use reductions so much that it is highly unlikely to all but impossible that we will be able to make these critical reductions in time to save the future.
One could easily call all of the above reasons for why we will not solve the global warming emergency in time a perfect definition for a new emotional malady many are calling a feeling of climate doom.
Reason 26: The human race is significantly distracted and limited by day-to-day survival issues, current media distractions, and a fatal global warming evolutionary disability.
Because of this and other factors, humanity will not collectively realize it is in an extinction emergency until it is far too late!
Because of many distraction factors, it is not unreasonable to say that 95% of the population is so distracted by day-to-day activities that they do not have the time or available bandwidth to process and respond to such a complex problem. It would also be fair to say 95% of people are unable to understand this emergency because of a natural evolutionary disability to understanding slow-moving threats like global warming.
This natural inherited "disability" is our innate fight or flight protective evolutionary mechanism, which was designed over millions of years of evolution to respond mainly to immediate, highly visible threats. Global warming is a slow-moving nearly invisible threat.
Reason 27: Governments could not start adequately reducing global fossil fuel use when the targets were gradual and easy 40 years ago. Why could they ever do it now?
There is no logical reason to believe that today, our governments would be more successful in executing the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. This likely failure is because the new 2025 extinction-critical targets are far more radical, excruciatingly painful, and immediate.
Reason 28: If governments try to enforce the correct global fossil fuel reductions needed, those governments will soon be overthrown or collapse.
Today's modern governments are built on the massive use of fossil fuels at almost every level of their day-to-day functionality. Several things would happen if today's governments cut their total fossil use by 75% before 2025 to meet the 2025 extinction-critical reduction levels. First, their military forces, which run on fossil fuels, would be near completely incapacitated. (No government would ever incapacitate its military in our dangerous world.)
Second, their citizens would also revolt and overthrow the government. This revolt would occur because enforcing the 2025 targets would starve or cause sudden severe pain to so many they would riot and remove all politicians who voted for them.
We now face humanity's unimaginable mass extinction vs. total extinction dilemma
In many places on our website, we have laid out the global warming science, which indicates that we are already facing an unavoidable global warming-caused mass extinction event by about mid-century. (If by chance, you still do not believe this, click the previous link. After you read that link, please read about the global warming-caused tipping points at this link. This second link will make the step-by-step unavoidable mass extinction process painfully clear!)
One huge reason why this mass extinction event will occur is that we have ignored 35 years of scientific warnings. We missed the chance to fix global warming when we could have easily made the needed gradual changes to keep escalating global warming from reaching our current catastrophic point.
This coming mass extinction event could cause the deaths of most of humanity by mid-century. Such a massive die-off would be due to soon crossing critical global warming tipping points as well as the combined future consequences of global warming particularly, mass starvation due to global crop failures of the most climate-sensitive crops.
The coming mass extinction event is also unavoidable because we will soon also be unable to stop ourselves from crossing the three most dangerous global warming tipping points. We will be unable to stop ourselves because we will be unable to achieve the life-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets!
More regrettably and worth repeating is the fact that the mass extinction of most of humanity is not the worst global warming future consequence we are facing. If we do not make or come reasonably close to the radical 2025 global reduction targets for our global fossil fuel use, we will also face the very beginning stages of total extinction.
A total extinction event could begin as early as 50-70 years in the form of very high temperature and very high atmospheric carbon levels, which support initiating the final runaway-global warming process, aka the runaway greenhouse effect. (Runaway global warming is also referred to as runaway greenhouse effect or extinction-level global warming. Run-away global warming describes the circumstances in which the climate destabilizes catastrophically and permanently from its original state—similar to what happened on Venus when the planet lost its atmosphere out into outer space. Runaway global warming is thought to have occurred to Venus 4 billion years ago, because of a very high carbon-rich atmosphere and exceptionally high average surface temperatures.)
Runaway global warming will create a literal Climageddon meltdown where nothing will survive because there will be no atmosphere. This total extinction event could enter its first phase as soon as our average global temperature rises above 6 degrees Celcius.
At a 5-6 degree Celcius increase in average global temperature, the massive additional tipping point releases of methane from coastal deposits and permafrost will skyrocket atmospheric carbon levels and average global temperatures. This will accelerate the earliest phases of runaway global warming.
Here is how this happens. At a 5-6 degree Celcius temperature increase, the coastal deposit, and permafrost "methane timed bomb" goes off. This will take us from the 5-6 degree Celcius atmospheric carbon level of 500-600 parts per million (ppm) far too quickly to the atmospheric carbon levels of carbon 800 ppm, carbon 1,000 ppm, carbon 1,200 ppm and even to carbon 1,600 ppm and beyond. (For reference, our climate was stable for hundreds of thousands of years at about carbon 270 ppm. We are currently at about carbon 415 ppm. This carbon 270 to 415 ppm increase has occurred since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, which was power by burning fossil fuels.)
There is also another way we could enter into a global warming-caused total extinction event. That would be as global average temperatures reach a 3-6 degrees Celcius increase. At those temperature increase levels, there will be increasing mass starvation and a mass migration of desperate climagees (climate refugees.)
To survive, countries in the many unsafe zones will demand land and resources from countries in the safer zones. Regional and international conflicts and wars will break out over the safer land areas and remaining resources.
These wars will be of ultimate desperation and will undoubtedly include chemical, biological, and even nuclear weapons. Any weapons available will be used to force those governments in the global warming safer zones to open their borders to the billions of desperate climagees. Because there will not be enough resources available in the safer zones to support the billions of climagees, the most vicious wars the world has ever seen will likely be fought over the safest remaining areas on Earth in humanity's last fight for survival!
What is also essential to keep in mind when viewing our potential for a runaway global warming total extinction event beginning in about 50-70 years, is that a mass extinction event is already unfolding at an accelerating pace and, it will come to full realization by mid-century. But, we only have about 5 years left to reduce global fossil fuel enough (by coming as close as possible to the 2025 targets,) to prevent crossing the three most deadly global warming tipping points and bringing about the beginning phase of total extinction.
How to say all of the above on an emotional level in a 7-minute must-see video, click here now!
The REAL crisis, challenge and ultimate global warming question for our collective and individual future is...
"How do we prevent a global warming-caused total extinction event from occurring, while we are simultaneously dealing with an unavoidable mass extinction event, which is already occurring?"
By this time you know the answer.
The above is the most important global warming question that no politician or global warming education organization is currently honestly addressing! Yet, there is no more critical question for the survival of humanity that must be faced and managed or, there will be no more humanity!!
This is the central question at Job One for Humanity which we are facing and managing in an honest, adult manner. In facing the global warming emergency over the last 11 years, we have been continually forced to create and update a science-based remedial plan called the Job One for Humanity Plan that if honestly executed, has a reasonable probability of preventing the total extinction of humanity.
This new plan is ultimately practical in that it also helps individuals make the critical emergency preparations and adaptions needed to deal with our steadily unfolding mass extinction process while also still promoting all of the key actions that must be done by our governments to prevent the total extinction of humanity.
The best news about the Job One for Humanity Plan to manage the global warming extinction emergency is that...
if we can get our governments to act effectively on this emergency and meet or come close to the 2025 targets by 2025, those of you who start preparing and adapting now, should be able to survive and thrive through what much of humanity will not. The only way to solve the dilemma of preventing a global warming-caused total extinction event from occurring, while we are simultaneously dealing with an unavoidable mass extinction event, is to begin the Job One Plan!
Click here to overview the 4 Parts of the Job One for Humanity Plan to resolve the global warming emergency and prevent total extinction. Here you can learn what you can do to protect your family, business, and nation during the unfolding mass extinction event while at the same time helping to execute the most effective governmental actions required to resolve our total extinction emergency.
If you don't believe our out-of-control global warming can or will cause the die-off of much or most of humanity by 2050-2070...
Please click here to read about the timeline for forty primary and secondary interrelated global warming consequences, many of which are also already unfolding. Once you see these detailed sequences of global warming consequences, we believe you also will know that we are in a full-on global warming extinction emergency.
In spite of the horrible odds for success, there are other good reasons why must we press on and get as close to the 2025 targets as is possible in spite of all the above challenges!
The most important reason that we must press on and meet or get very close to the 2025 targets is simple and powerful. If we do get close to the 2025 targets, most of humanity will suffer and die due to starvation over a relatively short period (1-2 decades before mid-century.) As horrible as most of humanity as well as a lot of animals and biological life suffering and dying is, this outcome is still far better than having all of humanity suffer and die by about mid-century. That is also likely to happen if we fail to reach or come very close to the 2025 targets.
There are several things we can always be sure of during this global warming extinction emergency. In spite of all of the challenges and adverse global warming outcomes that are possible and discussed above, the single constant truth for the best possible outcome for humanity is that; the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use toward meeting or getting as close as possible to the 2025 targets:
a. the more people that will survive longer to carry on humanity, life, and our beautiful civilization into the future, (See Parts 3 and 4 of the Job One Plan for how to do this.)
b. the surviving future generations will suffer far less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences and catastrophes, and
c. we will "buy" ourselves more time to prepare and adapt to what we can no longer avoid, (see the global warming Plan B and survival kit here.)
d. we give ourselves at least some chance of avoiding total extinction.
Furthermore, many people surviving longer and more people having time to get themselves, their families, and their businesses prepared for what is coming is an undeniable good particularly when you weigh it against the unavoidable consequences of doing nothing or failure to make the needed sacrifices to get global warming under control.
Click here to see where we are today on the Climate Change and Global Warming Doomsday Clock.
A mini summary
We have wasted decades of scientific warnings, and now our global warming bill has come due. The combined consequences of escalating global warming will most probably cause massive biological, economic, political, and social collapses and will end the lives of most of humanity by mid-century.
Our government leaders utterly failed to see the coming pain and suffering of the COVID-19 pandemic, nor did they adequately prepare for it. Our government leaders are also not seeing or adequately preparing for the global warming extinction emergency, which is already happening and, will be far, far worse than COVID-19!
If our governments could not reduce global fossil fuel use when the global targets were gradual and easy, starting 40 years ago, there is no logical reason to believe that with the worldwide fossil fuel reduction targets now being radical, excruciatingly painful, and immediate, they would be any more successful today. This means we will not be able to avoid much of humanity dying off by mid-century. It also means the near-total or total human extinction due to global warming interconnected consequences is our most likely eventual outcome.
Global warming is not irreversible. It is just already mostly out of our meaningful control. If we do not fix it, once we are extinct, mother nature will reliably rebalance heerself, but it will take centuries to thousands of years to get atmospheric carbon back down to safe pre-industrial levels.
Because of all of the above reasons, unfortunately, we will most likely not reach or even get close to the life-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Additionally, based upon global warming's many coming unavoidable consequences, global warming is already out of our meaningful control for at least the next 30-50 + years.
Worse yet, consequences such as global warming-related mass starvation and mass migration are not 20, 30, or 50 years away. Unfortunately, famine is already happening to millions. Soon it will be happening to tens of millions and then to hundreds and hundreds of millions more over the next 10 to 20 years. Within 30-50 years, billions will need to migrate or die of starvation and the other global warming consequences.
Because of all of the above as well as the other global warming caused or aggravated consequences, if we do not radically and immediately and radically reduce our fossil fuel burning behaviors by getting as close as possible to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, crop failures, mass starvation, and mass migrations will continue to get worse and eventually affect most of humanity if not all of humanity in a total extinction event.
Because of all of the above, we now need to get real about our future and what we can still do about it. We need to start executing plans like the Job One for Humanity plan (below.)
Never forget that all this bad news does not mean that nothing can be done!
Equally important to understand is that --- this does not mean everything is hopeless and we should give up our efforts to improve whatever we can. There is still much we can do to slow and lessen escalating global warming to save more of humanity for a more extended period. There is still much to do to give us more time to prepare and adapt so that hopefully a few us will survive.
To help you do prepare, adapt, and better enjoy the time you do have left we have provided this link to the 4-part Job One for Humanity Plan. It will also show you how you can help slow down this escalating extinction emergency while you prepare for and adapt to it with the time we have left. Our Job One Plan will provide detailed information on how to better protect your family, assets, business from the many unavoidable global warming catastrophes that will be arriving soon.
For information and practical actions for what you can still do to help the world get as close as possible to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets and make the best of a desperate situation for yourself and your family and business, please click here.
It is not just Job One for Humanity saying these scary things anymore. Hundreds of climate scientists now feel we cannot keep global warming below a 2°C increase. This means that all we can do right now is prepare for and adapt to what's coming. (If needed, click here to review the many reasons why it is highly unlikely we will reach our 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and why we must begin preparing ourselves.)
The above is all you have to remember about global warming and your future. Many of the pages of our website are about showing you the exact science behind these three simple statements so that you can verify what we are saying is true. You can start or continue that verification process here.
At this point, we also strongly recommend that you read this article in the New Yorker magazine! It will help you come to terms with the painful truth of what you have been reading. At this point, you most likely also better understand why many climate-informed individuals now believe we will not be successful in achieving the life-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
Click here to see where we are today on the Climate Change and Global Warming Doomsday Clock for our own Climageddon!
What have you decided about global warming already being out of our meaningful control?
Some of you will decide that we can overcome the 25 reasons listed above and we will somehow get global warming under control. Most of you will decide differently. You will come to decide that even though we still theoretically have enough time left to get close to the 2025 targets, we will not do so. Many of our staff, website members, and visitors have already come to that conclusion and have begun taking the appropriate actions described in the Plan B below.
Those who do not think we can control global warming at this point see that our governments do not have either the understanding or the courage to make the tough decisions that are now necessary. They also understand our governments are currently doing virtually nothing that will give a reasonable person hope we will come even close to the life-critical 2025 targets.
Realizing this, those individuals are focusing their influence, attention, and resources on the Plan B sections of the Job One for Humanity Plan where they believe they can still do the most good. This way, they do not also waste valuable time, energy, and resources fighting battles that cannot be won, especially when there is so much to be urgently done in other areas to get prepared for what is coming.
Most individuals who have come to the painful conclusion concerning our ner complete lack of ability to even come close to the 2025 targets immediately start our the Plan B sections of the Job One Plan, which is your survive and thrive kit.
How to better keep the difficult and disruptive facts on this page in a more balanced and positive perspective
We will be able to avoid or delay some of the coming global warming consequences, while other consequences are unavoidable due to our ignorance, incompetence, inaction, or selfishness. Despite the types of consequences we now face, we can still learn from their feedback and adapt and evolve. No matter what we face, we can keep working toward achieving the best possible remaining outcomes.
We can still make a significant difference and stabilize and save the future from total extinction by executing the comprehensive Job One for Humanity global warming action plan.
We can still maintain the perseverance needed to succeed in this monumental task by regularly reviewing the many benefits which will occur as we work successfully on this project together. Although we are now in what could be called a Great Global Collapse process triggered by accelerating global warming, this collapse process will eventually offer equal to (or even greater than) long-term benefits in the form of a potential Great Rebirth beyond the coming suffering and loss.
First on this page (that has been read almost 2 million times,) and then this other critical global warming benefit page, you will find the many often hidden surprise benefits of the global warming challenge. You also will find a framework and the possibilities for what could be called a post-collapse Great Rebirth, no matter how bad the collapse process gets.
While we persevere, we must never forget that our greatest challenges are also the seeds of our greatest opportunities. We must continually realize that we are engaged in the most critical and meaningful evolutionary adventure in human history!
This adventure is nothing less than removing the global warming extinction threat and, in so doing, indirectly improving most of the world's 12 other major challenges.
Additionally, so that more of us can survive longer and suffer less, we at Job One will continue to do everything we can to support lowering total global fossil fuel use as fast as is possible. This way, if we can make significant progress, we will have more time to prepare for and adapt to what is coming. This way more of us can have meaningful and enjoyable lives for as long as is possible.
What You Can Do Today to Help Slow Down Our Global Warming Extinction Consequences and Improve Your Individual Chances of Survival?
We have created the Global Warming Plan B survival kit. It is several sections withing the Job One for Humanity Plan. It will help you and society prepare for and adapt to the harsh global warming extinction emergency reality. Its action steps will also help us save and salvage as much of humanity and civilization as is possible. If completed successfully, it should allow us all to thrive once again sometime in the future.
The Job One Plan is a critical deadline-driven “first things first” plan designed to help individuals and groups:
- do everything within their power to slow down the crossing the final extinction tipping point by cutting all global carbon emissions by the 2025 global targets mentioned previously. (See Part 3 of the Job One Plan and Part 4 of the Job One Plan.)
- make the necessary emergency backup and recovery preparations before it is too late, (Part 1 of the Job One Plan,)
- adapt locally to the new realities of out-of-control global warming. Click here for details on how to do this in Part 1 and Part 2 of the Job One Plan,
- plan and execute the necessary migration of individuals, families, businesses, and communities as well as create the critically needed infrastructure in areas that will be much safer from the 20 worst consequences of global warming, Part One Of the Job One Plan,)
- implement effective global warming slowing strategies wherever possible in your current location as an individual, (Part 2 of the Job One Plan,) And
- promote effective sustainable lifestyle and livelihood action steps so that when however few of us do get through this with whatever is left of humanity, we have already created the necessary new practices that will re-stabilize our climate at or near its original state about carbon 270 ppm --- the state which has successfully sustained humanity and humanities ancestors for hundreds of thousands of years, (Part 2 of the Job One Plan.)
Never forget, if we fail and cross the carbon 425 ppm extinction threshold, there is no livable future that any rational person would want to inhabit (if we do not make or come very close to the required 2025 fossil fuel cuts mentioned previously. (Part 3 of the Job One Plan in section 2 describes why the future may not be survivable)
Never forget we are not talking about vague or low probability statistics and possibilities here. We are talking about the lives of you, your family, and billions of other individuals, families, and children all over the world!
Additional good news, hope, and surprise benefits to help you keep this heartbreaking news in a healthy and balanced perspective
Even though global warming has now reached a level of being out of control for at least the next 30-50 years, depending upon where you live in the world many of us still have a significant amount of time left to make our emergency preparations, adapt our environments, lifestyles, and livelihoods wherever possible, and where necessary, migrate to say for global warming safe zones to save ourselves, much of humanity and our civilization. Once we have wisely made our emergency preparations, adaptations, or migration if necessary, we still may have a few decades left to live meaningful and enjoyable lives, but only if we are knowledgeable about what is coming.
The following expanded good news is most certainly needed to counterbalance the above difficult news. The full good news is:
1. We are intelligent and adaptive beings and we are able to solve or adapt to almost anything.
2. In order to create the best possible outcome for ourselves and those we love, we can and need to squarely face this emergency and prepare for and adapt to it. If we start immediately, and we work together using an effective, prioritized plan like the one we have created called the Job One for Humanity Plan, many of us will still survive and thrive (if we are very lucky about 10-30 % of the world's population,) when this is over.
3. The future is unknown and full of unpredictable negative and positive wild cards. This also means that there is still hope for some of humanity and civilization to survive, but only if we quickly exercise responsible, intelligent, and effective, "first things first" Job One Plan critical path adaptive actions to survive the global warming extinction emergency.
4. We can still fully enjoy each day (as best as we can, even in spite of the rapidly destabilizing climate, escalating global warming catastrophes, and other deteriorating or retrogressing other major converging global challenges that will be made much worse because of global warming. We can and should make our lives as happy and as meaningful as they can be during this global warming retrogression and transitional period. We can continue to live meaningful and enjoyable lives for many years to come if we are wise and act immediately to radically reduce fossil fuel use and to prepare and plan for what is now unavoidable!
5. Overcoming this global warming extinction emergency, as well as our other major converging global challenges, will also help us better solve even our currently unknown future challenges as one effective and united human family, and it will eventually help us create a sustainable prosperity for all. It is important to understand our other major converging global challenges because our current global warming extinction emergency is also occurring simultaneously while these other challenges are unfolding.
Additionally escalating global warming is also a multiplier of these other challenges. These other major converging global challenges in many cases also help cause and/or magnify the global warming extinction emergency. Some of these other major converging global challenges contain the roots of the deepest causes behind the global warming extinction emergency.
6. Hopefully, enough of us should be able to make it through this escalating global warming evolutionary bottleneck and minimize the worst of this temporary transitional evolutionary retrogression that we are currently in (and creating.) Life and humanity have had many species ending evolutionary retrogressions in the past.
7. Working together we will by necessity need to build many new sustainable eco-communities in the global warming safe zones. These new eco-communities will serve as a critically necessary backup plan for humanity and civilization. They will also act as successful examples and "beacons of light" teaching the new sustainable lifestyles and livelihoods vital to even have a future. (For more information on these eco-communities see the new eco-community model at our sister website.)
8. We should be encouraged by the fact that in the last 4.5 billion years of Earth's evolution, some form or aspect of life has survived 5 previous mass extinctions.
9. There are more good news and surprise benefits about the global warming extinction emergency that offers additional hope for the evolution of humanity, click here for them. This surprise benefits page is one of the most-read pages on our website with over 2 million views!
As Michael Dowd, the evolutionary teacher likes to say "what really matters is coming back into the right relationship with reality." Because we have failed to effectively resolve escalating global warming over the last 35 years of warnings by our best scientists, we will now literally be forced by its escalating consequences to come back into a new right relationship with reality or we will perish!
To create a right relationship with the reality of out-of-control global warming our organization has also evolved into an eco-community of sustainability advocates and Evolutioneers that value the wisdom of appropriate threat preparedness, adaptability, and living sustainably. We are not fear manipulated or fear dominated, but we also will never ignore painful data that should trigger protective and useful evolutionary fear reactions, like our current global warming extinction emergency. We use such "warning feedback" and appropriate evolutionary fear to wisely anticipate, avoid, prepare and/or adapt.
We are preparing and growing our local eco-community in advance for this transitional global warming crisis and its new kind of evolutionary bottleneck and retrogression. We are doing this solely because the current facts clearly shout that many of our ecological (and in some areas even our economic, political, and social systems,) are in severe challenge or, are nearing critical tipping points or collapse with no or low remaining recovery resilience left to "right the ship." Nowhere is this now more true than in the catastrophe amplifying and multiplying area of our escalating global warming extinction emergency.
To the discerning evaluator and researcher, both human history and the current global warming facts indicate that many of our other non-global warming converging global challenges will continue to get worse faster with little realistic hope of correction before a chain reaction of multiple or, cascading global catastrophes and crossed tipping points shakes us and wakes us to the need for drastic and immediate evolutionary improvement toward more sustainable livelihoods and lifestyles.
Because of what we are now doing as a species (expanding fossil fuel use and its consequent atmospheric carbon pollution,) and not doing, (immediately establishing strictly enforceable international carbon pollution limitation laws,) global warming is rapidly getting worse now on an exponential curve. And, it will get much, much worse in the decades to come. And, if we don't hit the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets, we really can't do much about it at this late date with our current political and economic global warming remedial actions, conditions, and inertia.
We are not detached survivalists waiting for the end of the world! We are engaged sustainability advocates and Evolutioneers working actively to create a better world. We believe whole-heartedly in working for the best possible future (doing everything possible to hit the 2025 targets,) while at the same time wisely being prepared for the worst possible and temporary transition period.
To help deal with this global warming extinction emergency, we also envision that by necessity and as a safeguard, there also needs to be a widespread establishment of multitudes of new eco-communities in all of the global warming safe zones. They will play an essential (and possibly major,) role in securing the survival of humanity and civilization and in the establishment of the new sustainable prosperity vision within the post-global warming culture.
By helping to create these new backup eco-communities in the global warming safe zones, driven into creation by the urgency of the global warming extinction emergency, we together can help ensure a better path for the long-term future of humanity and our civilization.
We will enact our mission and message only by using only peaceful and evolutionary means and where we can still find enjoyment and joy in the relationships and experiences of our day to day lives.
And finally, even if the escalating global warming extinction emergency and the convergence of it with humanity's other major converging global adaptive challenges was somehow resolved in the next 30 to 50 years or turned out to be not as bad as is currently predicted by current science, we would be better off for our implementation of sustainability practices, and these new eco-communities would function even better and more joyously on their other goals of helping to co-create the necessary restructuring and re-alignment of society necessary to create:
b.) a just and equitable civilization and
c.) thriving and meaning-filled individuals and communities --- all of which will better align with and forward the progressive evolution of life in the universe.
The most important facts on this page!
Because of the above, we have a very limited ability remaining (until 2025,) to adequately reduce atmospheric carbon levels caused by our burning of fossil fuels to prevent global warming's 20 worst consequences from getting far worse and crossing more of global warming's 11 critical tipping points. This out-of-control global warming reality has consequences of such severity that it will most probably end the lives of most of humanity by mid-century.
The reality of our out-of-control global warming has been predetermined by the immutable cause-and-effect laws of physics and the inescapable mathematics and momentums of the rising past and present carbon ppm levels in our atmosphere. No amount of fossil fuel disinformation or conservative or progressive denial can change the physics and math of the deadly emergency we are caught in. The apple will fall from the tree just as the law of gravity has predicted.
Most conservatives in the US deny global warming. Most progressives do not deny that there is global warming, but they do either deny or are grossly ignorant about how bad global warming is really going to get as well as how soon those really bad consequences are going to happen.
The question of the century has now become; do we continue to deny global warming reality and, alternatively fail to slow it as much as we can while we also simultaneously prepare ourselves and adapt to what is now unavoidable?
At this point, our greatest task may be, to begin to save and salvage whatever we can of humanity and our civilization before even that is too late.
If we continue to deny the new global warming reality of being out-of-control for as much as the next 30-50 years, we will not prepare or adapt in time. If we continued to deny, we will also not promote the necessary immediate mass global mobilization and governmental actions for radically cutting fossil fuel use to 2025 target levels in order to help save as many individuals as possible and preserve the critical infrastructure of civilization. (Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
Crossing carbon 500 ppm tipping point is the super-slippery, very steep, and fast slope to reaching the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point level.
Crossing just the carbon 425-450 level condemns us to cross more global warming tipping points, which then directly leads to the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction tipping point level consequences growing in frequency, severity, and scale across climate, human, and ecological systems.
There is still hope that we can prevent the later phases of the Climageddon Scenario end-of-the-world climate model from occurring, but only if we act now and make the 2025 radical and immediate global fossil fuel use reductions as described above while we also enact the other steps of the Job One Plan!
At this point, maybe you have decided we are near-certainly headed to a mass extinction event. All you want to do is protect your loved ones for as long as you can, while you try to live out the rest of your life as happily as you can. No one here will blame or judge you. If that is what you want to do, then see the global warming Plan B and survival kit here and adjust it as needed.
Despite Everything Disheartening that You Have Read Above, the Job One For Humanity organization is NOT an End-of-the-World, all-is-lost organization
Please click here to read our recently updated balanced, positive approach toward the monumental challenges we face to avoid extinction and the widespread collapse of our global systems.
If you are still feeling quite sad, upset, depressed, angry, or anxious about the global warming emergency, what to read next
There is a lot of horrible news to digest about global warming. Any person who realizes that our governments are not doing enough to save us from unthinkable suffering and loss will naturally experience sadness, anger, depression, or significant anxiety.
The Job One for Humanity staff also has had to digest all the dreadful global warming news. To get our team through it emotionally, we learned about something called the Kubler Ross model of change. This emotional management model helped our team deal with all of the challenging emotions that today's global warming news evokes.
We felt it would be irresponsible to leave our readers without some of these tools to manage the intense feelings that the global warming emergency can create. Accordingly, we are providing the following images and tools that should help you come to emotional terms with the new realities of global warming. Here's how these global warming caused emotional reactions, transitions, and healings usually look for most people:
1. If you're like most people, what you have learned about the global warming emergency will cause you to initially react with denial and shock.
2. If you have the tenacity to explore more concerning how bad our governments have let global warming become, you will likely also become frustrated and angry at "how could our politicians and governments ever allow this to happen.
3. If you continue examing the facts of the global warming emergency and its solutions, you will most likely then enter into a bargaining or experimenting phase to find some way to deal with such disturbing and disruptive information on your life and future.
4. If you continue verifying the facts of the global warming emergency as well as it's honest but difficult and painful solutions, you will most likely next enter into a transitional feeling of grief or depression.
5. As you work your way through your grief or depression, you will eventually come to a level of acceptance of what is scientifically accurate. (Even though it is currently is being suppressed by the fossil fuel industry, mass media, and the politicians owned by the fossil fuel industry.)
A bit more about the Kubler Ross Model emotional management model
The five primary emotional transition levels above are vital parts of the Kubler Ross model. Over time, this model is a useful tool to help you deal with the global warming denial, anger, fear, grief, or anxiety that any healthy person would experience once they truly realize the current nature of our global warming emergency.
The Kubler Ross model is used to help people deal with the medical news that they are going to die. But, it still has powerful relevance here.
This is true because as you wrestle with the new global warming realities, you will most likely go through these five emotional phases over and over again. You will do this in numerous waves until you finally reach a profound and deeply stable state of acceptance, peace, and hopefully motivation to do whatever you can to reduce this threat.
When you finally realize how bad our global warming emergency is, the challenging emotional effects are a real thing! If you don't believe us, please click here to read about a new report called, The Psychological Effects of Global Warming on the United States and Why the U.S. Mental Health Care System Is Not Adequately Prepared.
Reaching necessary emotional acceptance and getting into action
Once you reach a level of emotional acceptance for what you have learned about the global warming emergency, you will be more willing and ready to begin new ways to solve the global warming emergency. You also will find yourself being better prepared to make new decisions on how to adapt and integrate this critical information into your life and business.
You may begin even emergency preparations for the unavoidable coming global warming consequences. This way, you are better able to protect yourself, your family, and your business and wisely maximize the chances of staying out of harm's way.
Once one reaches the critical state of emotional acceptance of the reality of what one is facing, most mature adults do as they have done for millennia. They accept what they cannot change and start finding ways to adapt to it. (There are also many adaptation steps found in the Job One Plan.) They also accept the truth of the bad news, and they get busy working on whatever they can do to change and improve it. (In this case, they get active on the Job One Plan action steps.)
We at Job One have found that the best thing to help minimize the emotional pain and trauma is to get busy completing the action steps of the Job One Plan. This is true even if you have not fully reached the acceptance level of your emotional recovery. The Job One Plan's many action steps proactively focus your attention on what can still be done. This focus on the needed action also minimizes your available attention on the negatives (once they have served their purpose of redirecting you toward action on the deeper truths of this emergency.)
Therapy or support groups also can help you work through having the painful realization that humanity is in the worst existential crisis on its history and, we do not have much time left (until 2025,) to effectively prevent mass extinction. Therapy or support groups can also help get you motivated to do whatever you can on the many action steps of the Job One Plan.
As you continue to understand the scale of our global warming emergency, you may also come to realize that our lives and our children's lives are going to be far shorter than we ever imagined. But that still can be changed if we immediately react to the challenge of radically reducing our global fossil fuel usage to meet the 2025 targets!
One great emotional recovery tip
Not everything about our global warming extinction emergency is emotionally disheartening. There are many surprising benefits to this emergency. Click here to read the single most read page on our website on these many benefits. At Job One we review this list regularly to maintain the mental well-being of our own staff. We also discovered that regular review of this good news and benefits list was critical to keeping our volunteers on-mission and maintaining their motivation as well.
Because most of you that have understood the previous facts (that do not fall into a defensive denial,) will naturally and appropriately feel shocked, sad, angry or even betrayed, the most logical and the best thing to do to deal with those often overwhelming feelings is to work for "the best" while you prepare for "the worst," just in case we fail. What this means is that you will need to focus as much as your energy and resources on just two main action strategies:
a. Get busy on getting the 2025 reduction targets met by getting our governments enacting and enforcing the laws needed to reach the 2025 targets. (Click here to learn what you need to know to get started on this.) and,
b. Get busy with emergency preparations and adaptations for you, your family, and/or your business for many of the now unavoidable consequences that will be arriving soon. (Click here to begin this process.)
These two action-based strategies will minimize the natural feelings of being shocked, sad, angry, or feeling completely betrayed by our current world leaders until you can get additional emotional support or assistance from other outsides sources or from working through the above Kubler Ross model on your own.
There is only one thing we can always be certain of in this emergency. No matter what, and in spite of all of the challenges and bad outcomes that are possible, the single constant truth for the best possible global warming outcome for humanity is that the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use:
a. the more people that will survive to carry on humanity, life, and our beautiful civilization into the future, and
b. future generations will suffer far less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences and disasters.
Help us get the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction goals met by signing the global warming extinction emergency petition now.
A final motivational booster
So what MUST we do individually and collectively at this critical moment in time if we are to survive? First of all, You must make a decision about the rationality and factual nature of what you have just read. If you find this information credible and reasonable, you must decide what you are going to do to manage or adapt to what you have learned.
As this document clearly shows, there is no escape or easy solutions. There will be unconscionable, unbearable, and unthinkable pain whether we are successful in radically reducing fossil fuel usage to the 2025 targets or whether we are not successful.
But no matter what, We are STILL left with this. We either make the radical 2025 fossil fuel cuts necessary and allow the world economy to go into a severe recession or depression and a huge portion (up to 50%,) of the human population consequently suffers and dies or, we do not make the radical fossil fuel cuts and most of humanity (if not all,) of the human population dies and our civilization ends as well.
In spite of all of the many challenges and painful difficulties of radically reducing global fossil fuel usage to the required 2025 target levels to prevent most if not all of humanity from going extinct, what other real choice is there? If we do not begin and make fossil fuel reductions immediately, we can't even hope to slow down global warming just enough so that at least some small percentage of humanity will survive and civilization will go on.
Therefore in every situation above, the only way we save our future is to cooperate globally at the highest governmental levels and radically reduce global fossil fuel use to the 2025 reduction numbers mentioned on this page! Even in spite of inevitably crossing the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction tipping point (and the likelihood of also crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point,) no matter what, we must still immediately do whatever we can to make the best of this horrible situation.
While there will be unimaginable pain either way, but at least, if we are successful with our 2025 fossil fuel reductions, some of humanity and our civilization will go on. And even if we are not successful with our 2025 targets, at least if we're making radical progress towards them progress towards them, more people will live longer more comfortably. And that alone is a tremendous value to the future.
So here is what needs to happen.
We now need to come together immediately as individuals but even more importantly our governments need to come together and get very busy in a mass global mobilization to do what we still can do while we still have time left to do it! (What our governments must specifically do is in Part 3 of the Job One Plan. What we must do is in Parts 1,2 and 4 of the Job One Plan.)
At this point, you're probably feeling a bit overwhelmed by what you have read and the enormity of what we must do to survive. You may have also reached the point of saying it's impossible or, the task is so large with such a low probability of success, why even try. The following ancient story and subsequent materials should help you deal with these natural mindsets to just give up or deny the problem even exists.
A wise Chinese general was cornered at the banks of a large river by an opposing army at least 20 times larger than his own. His only means of escape was to get his army across the river before they were attacked. This general had also previously placed enough boats on the bank of the river for escape with his army should that need arise.
As the larger army approached, pushing the smaller army closer to the river, this general gave the order to his most trusted lieutenants to rush to the boats and burn them. When his army saw their only means of escape was being destroyed, they became wildly angry and charged toward the general. The army demanded to know why their trusted general had burned their escape boats and condemned all of them to certain death at the hands of a vastly superior army.
The general calmly said, “We will win this battle or we will die. There is no other alternative and no escape.”
His army now knew their only option was victory or death. Filled with such clarity and single-mindedness of purpose, they fought with such reckless intensity, they defeated the opposing army 20 times their size.
Now that you truly understand the rapidly approaching consequences of our global warming extinction emergency, you too should no longer retain any illusion of any real long-term escape for you or your family, business, nation or for humanity or our civilization. What you also may not have realized yet is that our 35-year failure to have previously executed effective control of the escalating global warming extinction emergency means that we too, in effect, have already burned our escape boats! We are now at the last chance 2025 fossil fuel reduction tipping point.
Yes, this is the perilous tipping point that we have come to because of our inaction and ineffectiveness in addressing global warming for almost 35 years. If we are very, very lucky, we will make the required 2025 critical fossil fuel cuts.
By doing nothing to get our governments to radically and immediately lower fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 targets, even if we fail, your inaction will only shorten the critical time frame necessary to move people, technology, and infrastructure to the far north or far south so that possibly you or those you love can be temporarily safe and live a little bit longer with a little less suffering. All rational people would agree that living for a temporarily longer period with a better quality of life is far better than suffering more and dying sooner.
Better yet, if we act wisely together and get our governments in action to radically cut fossil fuel use now to meet the 2025 targets and, we are very lucky, humanity and civilization will continue. In the end, the simple truth is once again, we either cooperate and work together in a government-driven mass mobilization or we ALL die together!
What do you have to lose and, what rational alternative do you have other than to act immediately to get our governments to radically reduce global fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 targets, and at the same time get prepared for the coming horrible consequences that are already unavoidable? What you need to realize unequivocally is that hitting the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets IS our last small chance to avoid mass extinction and chaos in our lifetimes! It is just that simple.
What legitimate excuse is there for you to not also help our organization mobilize more people like yourself to face and deal with this humanity-ending emergency.
Other Relevant Information:
(The Sections below this line are still in draft mode.)
What are the timetables for the worst of the now unavoidable global warming consequences that will occur before we reach the extinction-level consequences?
How fast it gets worse from where we are today and how much time we have left before the worst of the 20 major coming consequences global warming consequences begin to directly or indirectly affect you, your family, business or nation depends completely on your current location and, our hitting or not hitting the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets. If we do not hit the 2025If we do not hit the 2025 targets, the following consequences and time frames will occur even sooner.
Many individuals around the world are experiencing many severe consequences already. In about 10 to 15 years, the 20 major consequences of global warming, the accumulating mass migrations of climagees (climate migrants), and the global warming aggravated economic, ecological, political, and societal effects will have increasingly severe and destabilizing impacts in almost all areas of the world.
But global warming consequence severity will increase most rapidly within the next 5-10 years in the areas between the 25th parallel north and the 25th parallel south. Within the next 10 to 15 years, the areas of increasing consequences severity will generally expand throughout the areas between the 35th parallel north and the 35th parallel south.
Within 15 to 25+ years, life will more regularly become unbearably chaotic and unstable for those unfortunate individuals and businesses still trying to live and operate below the 45th parallel north or the 45th parallel south. The key factors that will drive these mass migrations will be, crop failures and starvation because of increased heat and drought, sea-level rise, crashing property values in unsafe zones, soaring property values in safer zones, breakdown of law order and society, increased resource conflict and war, wildfires, rain bombs and other types of severe storms and other major global warming consequence increasing in frequency, severity, and scale.
Depending on your current and ultimate location, financial loss, and death tolls from global warming-related catastrophes will continue to rise steadily until we reached what we call the last phases of the Climageddon Scenario. This is where most of humanity by mid-century. This will occur primarily because of more crossed global warming tipping points as well as starvation, migration wars, civil unrest, and many of the other 20 worst global warming consequences.
Depending upon your location and our 2025 fossil fuel reduction success, during this remaining time window to prepare, adapt, or migrate, those who understand this page will still have control of a good portion of their lives, far longer than those individuals who deny, ignore or are unaware of the new reality that global warming is rapidly becoming out of meaningful control for as much as the next 50 years. In general, the many coming global warming consequences will almost always increase in severity, frequency, and scale over time and, their progression will not be a slow and steady linear progression. In many cases and locations, it soon will be an exponential progression with massive climate, biological and human system crashes and collapses.
Now that you have a useful and relevant developmental time window for our global warming extinction emergency, you are ready to learn more about what out of control global warming is as well as how it will inescapably adversely affect your future, family, finances and nation, and what you can still do about it. At the end of this document, you will also find some good news and other surprise benefits that will also help you maintain a more positive "bigger picture" context for the incredibly difficult situation we find ourselves in now that global warming has in many ways already become out of our meaningful control (as described throughout this document.)
The other materials below on why global warming is most likely already out of meaningful control will also help you understand the other longer-term critical global warming extinction emergency time frames and critical junctures that are unfolding as you read this and that will have powerful and catastrophic effects on our ecological, economic, personal and political futures. As you continue reading so much difficult news do not forget, if we are smart and move quickly, we can also still slow and lessen some of the worst of the 20 major coming consequences.
How long will it take for our out-of-control global warming to become controllable once again if we hit our 2025 targets and prevent extinction?
The preceding information means that it is highly likely various climate systems and subsystems will still continue in a positive feedback loop of ever-increasing average global temperature. Consequently, because of all of the factors discussed above this point we are, in fact, already in an uncontrollable cycle of irreversible global warming for at least another 30-50 years with more unavoidable catastrophes coming soon that will occur at a greater severity, frequency and scale no matter what we do!
Keep in mind that as the temperature continues to rise, we will always cross more tipping points faster and faster, which will result in faster and faster even spiking increases in average global temperatures and a cascading climate meltdown. (Please see the new book Climageddon for all the details on the exact Climageddon Scenario meltdown.)
Additionally, it is wise to remember that at the minimum, the relative time frame for removing (sequestering) the carbon ppm particles we are currently adding to our atmosphere is centuries to thousands of years. This means that long, long after we stop actively polluting our atmosphere with fossil fuels (at least 50 years from now,) the 20 most deadly consequences of those actions will last for many, many generations.
Viewing the dangerous rise of human-caused atmospheric carbon in parts per million (ppm) from a historical perspective will help you understand just how bad it really is!
The following graph will help illustrate what will happen to our carbon ppm levels in the future from the perspective of hundreds of thousands of years in the past. As you can see in the last part of the graph, which has been broken out in the smaller yellow box to better illustrate the last 1,000 years, it clearly shows we have entered a whole new much higher range of increased atmospheric carbon risk and threat exposure. We have deviated from Ice Age long-term cyclical carbon ppm highs of about carbon 275 ppm to over carbon 400 ppm. (As of May 2018 we are at about carbon 411 ppm.)
Image via Robert A. Rohdes, Wikimedia Commons. (Parts per million by volume [ppmv] includes other pollutants and trace greenhouse gases, such as methane.)
For hundreds of thousands of years, we always stayed below 275 carbon parts per million by volume (ppmv)--the range conducive for human life. But with the advent of the Industrial Revolution and fossil fuel use, average global temperatures and carbon ppm have soared to levels unseen for millions of years (about 1.5° to about 2.7° Celsius.
This is very bad for our future and our civilization because carbon 425 to 450 ppm is roughly double the previous civilization's safe highest Ice Age cyclical average point of about carbon 275 ppm for the last 400,000 years. At this 425-450 ppm level, we will be crossing more global warming tipping points at a faster and faster rate.
Still, don't believe that global warming is out of control for at least the next 30-50 years? Let us continue to prove it to you!
All of the preceding, and far more information about how we have created our current out-of-control global warming nightmare and global warming extinction emergency can be found in the new Climageddon book. If you want to get a printed or ebook version of Climageddon from Amazon, click here.
Each purchase of a printed version of Climageddon helps support the Job One for Humanity nonprofit organization and our Job One Plan to help you survive and thrive through our current global warming extinction emergency.
So what does all of the above really mean to the probable likelihood of either you or your children having anything like a long, relatively stable, peaceful, or prosperous future?
Based on the validity of the information on this page and the principles of rationality, we must now do everything within our power to actively limit the coming total damages and save and salvage what we can by:
1. getting very close to reaching the 2025 fossil fuel reductions required, and
2. preparing for and adapting to whatever global warming consequences we can no longer avoid so that we can save as much of humanity and civilization as possible.
What this also means is, that while you are working as hard as you can to get our governments to radically reduce fossil fuel usage to meet the 2025 targets in Part 3 of the Job One Plan, and depending upon if your current location is in global warming safe zone or how well you are preparing for what is coming as described in Parts 1 and 2 of the Job One Plan, you should still be able to fill your life with as much joy and satisfaction as is possible for about the next 10 to maybe 20 years. Therefore, the time to enjoy your life is now because the escalating global warming extinction emergency is going to make life progressively worse faster and faster.
Never forget there are no guarantees we will be successful in the Herculean mass mobilization task of getting our governments acting in unison to radically reduce fossil fuel use and meet the 2025 targets to prevent or at least slow our crossing the final carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point.
Will escalating global warming ever end and our climate return to normal?
Over many hundreds of thousands of years, our planet's climate has remained relatively stable and highly conducive to the development of humanity and our civilization. During those hundreds of thousands of years, the atmospheric level of carbon particles in our atmosphere was consistently around carbon 270 ppm. If atmospheric carbon moves much above or much below that 270 ppm level things do not work out nearly as well for humanity and civilization.
Our current out-of-control global warming over as much as the next 30-50 years also describes the process of the earth’s average global temperature increasing or being maintained at an unsafe level over extended periods of time far longer than multiple human lifespans. At the minimum, the relative time frame for removing (sequestering) the carbon particles we are currently adding to our atmosphere through natural means is centuries to thousands of years.
This means that long, long after we stop polluting our atmosphere with fossil fuels, the 20 most deadly consequences of those actions will go on and last for many generations, and both we and future generations will suffer dearly for our failures to address and resolve this emergency now. Luckily, nature has an amazing ability to heal itself over great spans of time.
To lower the world's average global temperature and atmospheric carbon levels back to the relatively safe preindustrial levels of carbon 270-350 ppm, we must scale up green energy generation over the next several centuries to replace all fossil fuel energy generation and we must radically cut fossil fuel use by the 2025 percentages and deadlines described previously. If we do that it may take centuries to thousands of years, but nature will take care of itself and clean our atmosphere.
Therefore, What each of us needs to realize unequivocally is that hitting the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets IS our last chance to avoid mass extinction and chaos in our lifetimes! It really is that simple.
In order to help you, your family and business as well as society prepare for and adapt to the current global warming extinction emergency and more importantly, radically reduce global fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 targets to slow global warming's avoidable consequences, our organization forwards the brutally honest, prioritized and practical 4 part free Job One for Humanity Global Warming Plan.
If you are wondering how did this gross misinformation of the general public and our current state of out-of-control global warming and crisis happen?
More information on why we may already be out of meaningful control of global warming for as much as the next 30-50 years
The initial temperature range for triggering the beginning of being in a state of out-of-control global warming varies between 1.7 to 2.2° Celsius (about 3- 4° Fahrenheit.) This is, unfortunately, the last chance tipping point where we are at now or, very close to that (or even beyond that,) temperature when you also add in and compensate for the following factors:
1.) all of the gross miscalculations and,
2. all other "already committed" or “baked in” temperature increasing factors due to carbon soot, climate, ecological, geological, and human system momentums and inertias that are already active and which, are explained in part in on this page in the 13 reasons section. (Committed global warming simply means that even though we are not there yet, we are unavoidably committed to reaching some certain temperature level in the near future first because of what has happened in the past, but also what is happening now. Committed or "baked in" global warming occurs due to complex climate processes, including numerous climate system and climate subsystem momentums and inertias which are too complex to describe fully here, but are fully described in the new Climageddon book.)
Deriving its foundation from points 1 and 2 (just above,) out of control global warming is a distinct new climate state created by the combination of:
a. increasing average global temperatures for as much as the next 30-50 years,
b. currently crossed and soon to be crossed additional key global warming tipping points,
c. the many global warming caused consequences of the climate system interacting among themselves and with biological, ecological and human (social, economic and political,) systems with increased severity, frequency, and scale, and,
d. the multiple self-reinforcing climate system and subsystem positive feedback loops that will continue occurring. (If you are not sure of what a positive feedback loop mentioned above is and why it will be so bad for your climate future, please take the time to explore this link.)
At the minimum, the relative time frame for removing (sequestering) the carbon particles that we are currently adding to our atmosphere at about 3 ppm every year is centuries to thousands of years. This means that long, long after we stop polluting our atmosphere with carbon ppm from fossil fuels, the two carbon 500 ppm and 600 ppm near-extinction and extinction-level tipping points as well as many of the other 20 most deadly consequences related to those tipping points, will last for many, many generations.
Both we in the near future and future generations will suffer dearly for our failures to address and resolve this emergency now.
From all of the preceding facts on this page, you should now be able to clearly see that the truth behind why global warming is most likely already now out of our meaningful control for as much as the next 30-50 years. It is also because of:
a. all of the above prevents us from having the ability to either radically reduce our fossil fuel levels as now required and as described previously or, to radically reduce our average annual increase in atmospheric carbon (of about 3 carbon ppm per year,) and far more importantly, this then also results in...
b. our not being able to get our atmospheric carbon ppm levels back down anywhere close to the safe carbon 300 to 270 ppm levels where it has been for hundreds of thousands of years and, where our climate would re-stabilize at preindustrial levels and we would be safe and flourish once again.
And here's the biggest takeaway. Because we are most likely already out of meaningful control of global warming for as much as the next 30-50 years, we are now facing an imminent extinction threat and event. Imminent is the correct word because the processes leading to the extinction of humanity is already well underway and, most of humanity will suffer and die by mid-century, which is also well within the lifetimes of most people alive today.
From all of the above on this page, you can see that there is no escape. In every situation, the only way we save any part of a liveable future is to radically and immediately cut fossil fuel use to slow things down enough that we have time to prepare, migrate and adapt as well as possible so that some of humanity and civilization survives.
In all of the above-discussed scenarios, no matter what, we must do what we can and make the best of a horrible escalating emergency. We need to come together immediately and get our governments very busy in a mass global mobilization with what we still can do!
If we fail to hit the 2025 reduction targets here is a bit of very dark "good news" that may also save a small portion of humanity
There is another dark and chaotic possibility for our future that would also allow a small portion of humanity to survive. If we do not successfully and immediately cut fossil fuel use by the radical 2025 percentages listed in this document, the other most probable way that we will finally and successfully radically reduce our fossil for use is through a massive die-off of about 70 to 90% of the human population before mid-century. If we do not make our 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets this will naturally occur and continue to escalate over the following 3-5 decades. As mentioned before, this will occur naturally because of massive crop failures, starvation, and other economic, social, and political conflict, breakdown, and chaos.
As billions die of starvation, or in desperate migration and resource wars, or because of the accelerating worst consequences of global warming and its tipping points, fossil fuel use will drop radically simply because there will be far, far fewer humans using fossil fuel. This is what may be the dark "last resort solution” that hopefully saves a small portion of humanity and civilization in the end if we do not radically reduce fossil fuel usage ourselves and if we somehow manage the threat of nuclear reactors and biological and chemical weapons being unsecured in the failed states of the unsafe global warming zones.
But even if this happens because we fail to radically reduce our fossil fuel use to the required 2025 targets, it will still take centuries to thousands of years before the average global temperature and the planet recovers from what we have already done to it! Any unlucky survivors will be living a nightmare of higher temperatures, extreme weather, and chains of other consequences we can barely envision just from what we have already done to our atmosphere.
What else needs to happen to save your future and the future of humanity and our civilization?
As you can see from the first atmospheric carbon ppm graph on this page, we are not making anything even close to the required radical cuts in our fossil fuel use to reduce the carbon going into our atmosphere. To make the necessary fossil fuel use cuts, all global carbon emissions would have to be cut as is presented in these 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
Those are the real fossil fuel use needed reduction numbers and not the grossly miscalculated and misleading reduction numbers better forwarded by the IPCC and most governments of the world.
We are not making anything even close to these levels of mass extinction prevention fossil fuel cuts!
If you're a pragmatist, because of the many reasons above we may not be able to stop escalating global warming for at least another 30-50 years, this also means we will not be able to prevent massive global temperature increases, horrendous climate calamities, and the near extinction or complete extinction of humanity far sooner than imagined.
This means that we may have already passed the point of being able to control rising global warming as well as all of its related unavoidable and unthinkable consequences for as much as another 30-50 years unless we can immediately radically cut our fossil fuel use by 2025 and the required percentages described previously on this page. But can we really make those life-critical cuts in time?
If your pragmatist, you will most likely believe that it is highly improbable we will ever make the critically needed cuts to our fossil fuel usage by 2025 to save ourselves. There are several reasons you may be correct.
One is that each year we continue to delay in making the needed 2025 radical fossil fuel usage cuts means that any future cuts will need to be even more extreme, which makes them even less likely to be done because of the even more severe hardships and costs that they will impose globally.
As mentioned previously in the reasons above, another major reason it is unlikely we will make the needed radical fossil fuel cuts soon enough to save ourselves is because of what is called Garrett's Global Warming Dilemma. This research states that because of the immutable laws of physics and mathematics, almost all of our fossil fuel-based global economy must first collapse in what will naturally become, a steep but necessary global recession or global depression in order to produce the required cuts in our fossil fuel use to save humanity in time. And, if the world economy collapses to the level that is necessary to hit our 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets, it is estimated that as much as 50% of the world's population will die of starvation because modern agriculture will collapse without fossil fuels for fertilizer and to power its machinery.
This well-documented climate research is the research most often ignored by environmental groups around the world because it produces a horrible dilemma for which either answer is unthinkable as well as un-sellable to members and donors. Because of this fossil fuel reduction dilemma, and because there is little organized and effective public or political will to create a severe, but absolutely necessary global recession or depression to radically reduce fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 targets, most environmental groups hide this essential and critical research away and ignore it like dirty laundry. (If you're a science person, please click here and read a summary of Prof. Garrett's alarming research on atmospheric carbon, global warming, and the necessary fossil fuel reductions we must make to save the future.)
Because of all of the preceding on "why global warming is out of our meaningful control for at least another 30-50 years factors," it is hard to imagine that fossil fuels use will ever be reduced to anything close to the critical 2025 target levels needed, until as mentioned before we are faced with truly massive global financial losses, collapsing governments and billions dead and suffering!
If you are a pragmatist and a mature adult, at this point you realize that for all intents and purposes, we have already "baked in" everything needed to cross the carbon 500 ppm point! You have also probably realized that we have only the tiniest of chances for not crossing the 600 carbon ppm level over the next 50-60 years.
Is there a message conflict on this page?
At times it may sound like our global warming message is conflicted, but it is not. We are truly at our last chance to turn things around, and the odds that we will do so are weighted VERY heavily against us. We do not sugarcoat or hide the fact from you that it is going to be extremely challenging to achieve the last chance 2025 reduction targets.
It easily can be considered highly probable that we will not make the necessary global fossil fuel reductions in time. We will once again do too little too late or, self deceive ourselves once again just like we have done for the last 35 years.
We have given you the good, bad and the ugly truths about our global warming extinction emergency because we know that it is important for you to have all of the information to evaluate for yourself in order to make the best possible choices for you and your loved ones.
In spite of the unbelievable mess, we find ourselves in, you can rely upon the fact that we are always working for the best possible outcome (making the immediate radical 2025 global fossil fuel cuts required,) while at the same time preparing for the worst possible outcome (preparing to save and salvage whatever we can of humanity and civilization in case it all goes terribly bad which, unfortunately, now appears more likely than not.)
Working for the best possible outcome while also preparing for the worst possible outcome is not a conflict, but a highly rational and optimized way of managing known and imminent risk and threat.
For example, once we have done what is necessary to logically prepare for the worst possible outcome with a backup plan, (Part 1 of the Job One Plan,) we then forget about all of our emergency preparations and focus ALL of our energies upon working for the best possible outcome --- making the 2025 radical fossil fuel reductions in time to prevent the extinction of most if not all of humanity OR, at worst and at least, slowing escalating global warming down enough so that more people can live longer more comfortably (Part 3 of the Job One Plan.)
This preparation for the worst practice is not much different than what you are told before every airline flight in case there's a sudden change in altitude. You are told to always first put on your own oxygen mask before putting your children's masks. This way at least someone is still able to function at the minimum required level to save and salvage the children.
Similarly, we ask the same of you. Get prepared for what is coming so you too can help us by focusing all your energies on meeting the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
Even if we don't hit our 2025 reduction targets, our message never loses sight of the truth that the more and faster we radically reduce global fossil fuel use, the more we can still slow and lessen both the unavoidable as well as avoidable global warming consequences and, more importantly, more people can live longer and more comfortable lives around the world.
Our message also never loses sight of the functional and practical truth that if we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, our odds of avoiding mass extinction within our lifetimes are unthinkably low to nonexistent.
There is a simple near-absolute equation of the highest possible human value that we never forget when forwarding our mission.
"The more and faster our global fossil fuel reduction reaches or closely approaches the 2025 global warming reduction targets, the more of us that will live longer at some near-acceptable level of normalcy and security, and vice versa."
Still Feeling Sad, Angry, or Anxious About Global Warming? Here is what to do.
Click this link and start feeling better.
We should be able to keep most of humanity from extinction by immediately enacting ALL of the critical actions described in part three of the Job One Plan.
For information on the exact tipping points and consequences of the global warming extinction emergency, click here.
For more information on the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, which we cannot miss, click here.
If you want to explore the very deepest individual and societal causes of our global warming emergency and many other of our biggest global crises, click here.
There are other very challenging reasons why we won't make the 2025 targets in time. These reasons involve different climate, human, and biological system inertias and momentums to complex to discuss in a short article. These additional reasons are found on other pages on the Joboneforhumanity.org website or in the new book Climageddon published by our non-profit organization.
Please send this article to politicians and social media all over the world. Ask your politicians what they are doing to prevent the coming mass extinction of most of humanity by mid-century?
Ask them why they are not adequately managing the greatest threat multiplier and global problem amplifier of the 21st century by enacting the governmental steps described here!
(This page is derived substantially from the 2016 book, Climageddon, The Global Warming Emergency and How to Survive It. It has been updated with new climate research since 2016 as applicable. Climageddon is Available on Amazon.)