The world's leading authority on climate change, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC,] is not accurately telling our governments what they need to know to save us from climate extinction because of...
the IPCC's "Perfect Day" problem.
Our governments are in serious climate risk analysis trouble because they rely upon the IPCC's "authoritative" climate consequence scenario projections and remedies. Moreover, the world's governments, military, intelligence agencies, hedge funds, investment banks (like Goldman Sachs,) stock and commodity markets, foundations, think tanks, national and international reserve banks, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Economic Forum all use the same IPCC climate research, predictions, and remedies for their climate risk analysis.
All of the previously mentioned entities are being dangerously weakened by what is known as the IPCC's climate computer modeling "Perfect Day" problem.
The Perfect Day problem and how it works
The IPCC uses computer modeling to predict future climate consequences and calculate how much fossil fuel we must reduce globally to keep ourselves safe. Every 3 to 5 years, the IPCC creates 4-7 updated best to worst climate prediction scenarios and what we must do to prevent them from occurring.
The governments, organizations, corporations, and individuals that rely upon these IPCC climate scenarios to create their internal climate risk analyses are being told by the IPCC and their governments these climate scenarios are reasonably accurate projections of probable future climate conditions. But, unfortunately, the truth is they are far from it.
The IPCC's climate computer models actually reflect "Perfect Day" climate scenarios far more than they reflect more probable climate scenarios. The IPCC's climate computer models are plagued with this "Perfect Day" problem because they seldom include most of the following critical climate modeling factors. These are the critical climate-related but often missing factors that regularly and routinely occur both within and between the complex adaptive systems within our climate's multiple systems and subsystems.
The IPPC's climate computer models and multiple predictive scenarios still fail to capture:
a. many of the interconnected or interdependent primary and secondary tipping points within and between the climate system and its subsystems.
b. most of the many powerful self-reinforcing feedback loops within and between the climate systems and their subsystems.
c. most of the non-linear cause and effect relationships within and between the climate systems and their subsystems. (Non-linear cause and effect relationships are a regular aspect of the behavior of complex adaptive systems.)
d. far too many of the cause and effect interconnections and critical interdependencies within and between the climate system and its subsystems. And,
e. many of the critical points of no return within and between the climate systems and their subsystems. (These crucial points of no return help signal and predict coming tipping points and most often dangerous system crashes and collapses that occur after a tipping point is crossed.)
The result of omitting so many to most of the essential a-e factors above from climate computer models is that what you get is more like a Perfect Day prediction scenario. This Perfect Day climate scenario is where either no or far too few of the many, many a-e factors are accounted for within the computer-modeled climate calculations and predictions.
The crucial thing to know about items a - e above is that they embrace thousands of essential regularly unaccounted-for or under-accounted-for climate factors that are also at play in creating reliable and probable climate predictions and risk assessments. Moreover, many of the climate factors listed in a-e above are so powerful that just omitting a single one can radically alter the trajectory and usefulness of any of the IPCC's current climate prediction scenarios or suggested remedies.
For example, suppose the IPCC has predicted that the average global temperature will rise to 2 degrees Celcius above pre-industrial levels by 2040 in one of their multiple prediction scenarios. Now factor in that they did not add to that computer model essential tipping points, feedback loops, or other non-linear cause and effect factors within the climate system and its subsystems. In that case, this a-e omission could quickly move their predicted average global temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius by 2040 (with all of its associated risks and consequences) to far more than 2 degrees Celsius far sooner than 2040!
Worse yet, the world's political, corporate and the leaders of the other organizations mentioned earlier do not know about the Perfect day issue, which is that the IPCC predictions and their remedial climate recommendations do not reliably computer model the contexts, relationships, processes, and many ongoing transformations within the interacting climate, human and biological systems, and subsystems.
This "Perfect Day" problem means that the REAL climate risk and threat probabilities for humanity's climate future are being grossly underestimated! Unfortunately, this also means that our governments, largest corporations, and the leaders of the other organizations mentioned earlier are ALL currently operating on grossly inadequate climate risk assessments. As a result, within these organizations, our current climate condition's actual risk and threat levels and its fundamental uncertainties are far higher than what they understand and what we are being told. Consequently, we are currently not managing or preparing for our actual climate risks and uncertainties.
At Job One, we estimate that if you take all of the factors in a-e above (and all the IPCC's many other political, prediction modeling, and summary report problems described in the additional links at the end of this page), we should treat the IPCC's current predictions and climate remedies as being underestimated on the average by about 20-40%. This means we are underestimating both the severity and frequency of climate consequences and when these climate consequences will arrive by about 20-40%.
If one makes these 20-40% reasonable allowances for non-perfect day climate items in a-e above and the other IPPC problems linked at the end of this page, the world's governments and corporations should be panicking.
On the other hand, if they were making appropriate allowances for the many a-e missing climate factors and risks, the corporations listed previously would demand our governments immediately declare an international climate extinction emergency. They would also demand that our governments cooperate globally to enforce the fossil fuel reductions needed to at least save some small portion of humanity. (If you would like to see the horrific chain of climate consequences with adjusted timelines when making allowances for the IPPC's problems, click here.)
But, here is the really bad news about the climate system factors listed in a-e above. As the climate continues to heat, the climate and its subsystems will become more interactive, agitated, and unstable, and you will see many more of the a-e climate system factors occurring causing greater and greater climate disruption.
Imagine these a-e climate system factors interacting within the climate and churning and boiling like the water in a pressure cooker as you turn up the heat. Unfortunately, as our temperatures continue to rise, the a-e climate factors above will also occur at ever faster rates. This escalating rise in temperature will also create significantly more future climate predictive uncertainty. This will then lessen our ability to develop helpful risk analysis as the climate worsens.
Knowing about this inherent dilemma of diminishing predictive power as temperatures rise helps let us know that we must prevent the climate system from EVER crossing this first extinction-triggering tipping point. If we cross this extinction-triggering tipping point, global warming will move into a runaway mode where reliable climate consequence predictions and timeframes will be all but impossible to construct.
Because of the Perfect Day problem and so much missing from the IPCC's computer climate modeling, any organization that uses the IPCC's data must immediately reevaluate their climate risks and adjust them at least, 20-40% to the negative. With this new modeling problem information, these organizations will then be able to create a far more realistic climate risk analysis for their specific operations and conditions.
The biggest danger of the IPCC Perfect Day problem
The real climate change risk and threat level to all entities listed above is far beyond what they believe and are telling themselves, their citizens, or their clients. This serious risk analysis problem is not just dangerous. It will not only be very costly over time, but it also will likely turn into a serious legal liability for those entities as their citizens and clients discover the climate risk levels they were advised about were grossly underestimated.
The Perfect Day problem is also crippling our ability to find and use the correct collective climate change management strategies needed to save humanity itself. Because of the IPCC's Perfect Day problem, we are not dealing with the actual climate change risks appropriately and rationally.
As a result, we are operating on incorrect climate change risk and threat assessments far below what they genuinely are. And, that will be the final recipe for a soon-arriving collective mass extinction.
The climate change risk analysis the world is operating on from the IPCC makes the world think it still has many decades left to fix the climate change emergency and prevent extinction when at best, it only has about another 3-9 years. Yet, the IPCC continues to sell the world their grossly incomplete "Perfect Day" climate change prediction and remedy computer models and scenarios as reliable and probable representations of our climate future when they are grossly inadequate and underestimated!
We believe that when the entities listed above redo their climate risk analysis using the information on this website and other websites critical of IPCC climate work, and which also includes the climate factors listed in a -e above, they will discover the following:
- We are currently at a level of extreme climate change risk. We passed high climate risk decades ago.
- When we cross the atmospheric carbon threshold of carbon 425 to 450 parts per million (ppm), we have entered the climate risk zone of unavoidable extinction for much of humanity by 2050.
- When we cross the atmospheric carbon threshold of carbon 450 to 500 ppm, we have entered the climate risk zone of near-total to total human extinction beginning as soon as 2070 or sooner.
As you can see from the illustration above, for the last 65 years, atmospheric carbon levels have been getting worse even faster. As a result, we are about 3-9 years away from moving into the climate risk zone of unavoidable extinction for much of humanity by 2050.
Building a plan, a risk analysis, or a climate scenario on everything going perfectly has always been the perfect plan for failure. Unfortunately, because of the above, our world is in a far deeper climate change extinction emergency than it believes it is in.
And finally, there is another way to grasp the dire danger of the IPCC's Perfect Day problem. Ask yourself, when was the last time everything went perfectly according to your projected perfect plan?
What can you do about the Perfect Day problem which is drastically impeding our progress on executing effective climate solutions?
1. If you have any contacts with power at any of the organizations listed on this page, you can email them a copy of this article. It would help if you also referred them to this page. This page makes considerably better (but still not perfect) allowances for the IPCC's Perfect Day problem by more realistically adjusting climate consequence scenarios and timeframes to include and make allowances for more of the above a-e factors.
Here are the key organizations to reach out to so they can update their internal critical climate risk analysis, so they become a better reflection of today's actual climate reality. You will be doing them a favor! Unfortunately, operating on the IPCC's flawed climate prediction scenarios for their internal climate risk analysis will eventually embarrass them. It could also expose them to severe legal liability for incorrect actions or incorrect advice.
This risk updating process may also assist them in doing what is logical and necessary to help better manage our climate extinction emergency. There may be other entities you will think of as well:
World governments, the world's military, intelligence agencies, hedge funds, investment banks (like Goldman Sachs,) stock and commodity markets, foundations, think tanks, national and international reserve banks, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Economic Forum and corporations dealing with essential commodities and infrastructure needed for the future.
2. Get started with the Job One for Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan.
Other critical IPCC consequence prediction and timetable problems that rapidly need to be adjusted for in future government and corporate climate risk analysis
1. Click here to see the four most crucial extinction-triggering tipping points that must be factored into every adjusted future climate risk analysis.
2. Click here to see how the accelerating primary and secondary consequences of climate change interact with and worsen humanity's 11 other major global crises.
3. Click here to see the risk analysis adjusted 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and why we must get close to a 75% reduction in total global fossil fuel use (oil, natural gas, coal, etc.) by 2025, not the far, far less net-zero emission levels they have pledged by 2050 or 2040! (In the technical notes at the bottom of the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction specification page, you will see each calculation and compensation for the various factors that make up the required correct global fossil fuel reduction numbers.)
4. In addition to the "Perfect Day" problem previously described, below you will find essential additional links on the checkered history of the IPCC climate consequence predictions and research problems. These links will provide a valuable context for the relationships, processes, and climate research transformations going on within the IPPC.
You will learn precisely how the IPCC constructs and calculates its climate consequence risk scenarios and recommended climate change remedies. Unfortunately, you also will discover that there are many other serious calculation and process problems going on within the IPCC in addition to the Perfect Day problem. The additional problems below further call into question the reliability and risk analysis usefulness of the IPCC's current prediction scenarios and climate remedies.
(Please note: In the links below, we are not attacking or criticizing any of the thousands of hard-working and honest volunteer scientists worldwide who submit their climate research to the IPCC. Instead, we call attention to the IPCC's administrative processes and politicized leadership. They are the ones who alter and contort the real climate science received by these scientists into 5-7 year climate summary reports. Before they are released, these 5-7 year summary reports must get the line-by-line sign-off of the IPCC's major funders, the fossil fuel producing nations, and the fossil fuel-dependent nations.)
Click here to understand the long-term history of the IPCC underestimating the consequences, timeframes, and the needed global fossil fuel reduction targets by as much as 20-40% or more.
Click here to see precisely how the IPCC "cooked the books" and grossly skewed the current IPCC global fossil fuel reduction calculations by including unproven and non-existent "carbon sucking unicorn" technology into their projections.
Click here to see the eleven key climate change tipping points that have been mostly excluded from the IPCC calculations on how much fossil fuel use we must reduce each year globally.
Click here to see the four key reasons why the IPCC's 26 global climate conferences have failed to produce results or legitimate global fossil fuel reduction targets.
Click here to see the latest 2022 IPCC climate change summary report on the critical climate sensitivity error. Because of only this ongoing climate sensitivity error, the IPCC's newest climate consequence predictions, timeframes, and remedial action information will be underestimated by as much as 25% or more. (This 25% does not include the effect of the other IPCC errors described in the links just above.)
Click here to see a new study showing that the IPCC does not include many critical climate system factors in its computer climate modeling. Those missing factors equal wrong and distorted results. This Feb 2022 paper strongly refutes the absurd IPCC claim that the Arctic sea ice melt-decline is reversible. It is not reversible, and that is a monster problem for humanity's weather, seasonal climate, and future!
All of the above linked decades of IPCC error, calculation, and polarization problems mean that the IPCC is an unreliable partner for truthful and accurate climate change information. Their climate consequence predictions, timeframes, and remedial action information are grossly underestimated by 25 - 50 %+ and possibly more!
It is time to find new more reliable sources for climate change prediction and management information.