Here is the tough news if all goes wrong and we miss our required fossil fuel reduction targets.
We will unavoidably lose half of the human population by mid-century because of our 60 years of inaction or ineffective action on escalating global heating. We also still face near-total extinction if we fail to at least come close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible.
The unavoidable loss of half of humanity by mid-century will produce widespread social, economic, and political chaos illustrated by the primary and secondary runaway global heating consequences described in painful detail on this page. We now have to deal with that reality. We also are currently doing so poorly in getting close to the 2025 targets, as a backup plan, on a national level, we need to prepare, adapt, and save and salvage whatever we can before it is too late to achieve a national-level of extinction resilience.
While our governments do everything they can to come as close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets as they can, simultaneously, they also must manage the runaway global heating-driven global decline process. Our governments can do this by as soon as is possible moving critical resources, technology, infrastructure, and at-risk populations into the global warming safer zones in a wise, equitable, and well-planned way.
For our governments to effectively manage a global heating-driven collapse process and the global heating extinction emergency, we also will have to evolve truly effective new forms of global governance and cooperation quickly. This new global governance would need powers to verify, enforce or punish any nation that tried to game or cheat making the complex global changes required to save whatever portion of humanity and civilization we can for the future.
The following governmental-level resilience backup Plan B section describes the many actions that this new global governance must manage for a large portion of us to survive. The truly shocking and painful measures below are necessary because as things stand now, the odds are not good that we will get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets for quite a while. And, that means that the percentage of human survivors could be quite low.
Unfortunately, only our national governments collaborating in tight coordination and alignment will be able to slow down runaway global heating enough to allow more people to survive, live longer, and more stably.
This government-level resilience backup plan will prepare our nations and humanity for the worst possible outcomes. This way, we can still save and salvage whatever we can, while we can.
At least, with this governmental level, resilience emergency backup Plan B successfully executed, more of humanity might be able to survive to re-populate the earth and preserve the best of our civilization. (If you still have any doubt that immediately beginning a government-driven and well-resourced Plan B backup plan against failure is necessary, please read this page.)
The key runaway global heating government actions to save and salvage what we can while we still have time
Global warming and these other poorly managed critical global challenges we currently face are most likely get a lot worse before they get better. While the actions below are more directly focused on the more immediate threat of the runaway global heating emergency, indirectly they too will also be helpful make things more survivable as our other critical global challenges continue to worsen.)
Action Step 1. Our governments must begin moving critical resources, technology, key infrastructure, and our younger at-risk populations into the global warming safer zones in a wise, equitable, and well-managed way.
For our long-term future and safety, essential resources, infrastructure, and crucial genetic and social diversity transfers will need to be executed at the same time as the other individual and business action steps (above) are being done. If things continue to go wrong as they are now, this government action step may turn out to be the most important action taken for the future of humanity and preserving civilization.
Of all of the things to be done in this step, working out a migration plan for a fair and equitable migration lottery for all those younger individuals who have not already migrated will be the most challenging. This equitable migration management is critical because of the poor soils and shorter growing seasons above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south. Those areas of deficient soils and inadequate sunlight will not be able to grow enough food to feed our current human population. Because of this food production limitation, a fair lottery will be essential to the survival of humanity and civilization.
Even before this lottery begins, our best scientists must determine how much food can be grown in those global warming-safe areas and what the maximum allowable population should be. These calculations are based on the total amount of food needed for that existing population while also maintaining adequate food reserves for unplanned and unexpected contingencies. Once they have those calculations, they can set initial and or adjust lottery migration allocations as conditions continually change.
Even before we set the final number of people that the remaining global warming safe zones will support, we must also mobilize the necessary agricultural resources to scale up food production. This scaling-up of the farming output will allow for the rapidly increasing migrating populations coming to those safer zones as well as to compensate for the generally more deficient soils and reduced sunlight found there.
One more thing must be said about the migration lottery. It must be almost entirely for individuals under 30 or for individuals who are no older than 40 with young children. The older generations have failed horribly to pass on a livable legacy to the younger generations.
The older generations have also lived far longer and more stable lives than the younger X, Y, and Z generations ever will. Therefore, generational justice demands that the most survivable remaining areas go to the younger generations.
The lottery also cannot be hijacked or dominated by wealthy individuals, corporations, or nations. No special interest group must unjustly control or determine who is allowed to migrate based on privilege, position, wealth, politics, or any other national, cultural, or social categorization.
If it is not a fair and just lottery, based upon what is essential for humanity and civilization to survive as well as an equitable representation of all of the categories mentioned above, then those who are left behind will fight to the death and eventually bring about the end of everything. This new lottery failure conflict will occur because those who feel the lottery was unfair will invade the safe zones. They will use whatever nuclear, biological, or chemical technology has been left behind in unsafe zones.
Those with any decision power over who is allowed to migrate can not be allowed to use their political, military, or financial positions, advantages, or privileges to place themselves, their families, friends, allies, or business interests in any better position than any other individual citizen in the unsafe zones in these lotteries.
Any random lottery winner selection methodology must draw only from a pool of the most qualified climagees with the essential skills for the new world we will be living in. It must also have layers of independent safeguards to prevent fraud, bias, and any form of selection favoritism.
This lottery must also for the following types of necessary diversity; genetic, national, racial, ethnic, religious, cultural, sexual orientation, gender identity, rural/urban/indigenous, and rich/poor. Communities most affected by global warming damage, which also have contributed the least to the climate change emergency should receive special consideration if justice is to be served.
Having enough genetic diversity will be extremely important because most of humanity by mid-century will eventually die. This will occur as we approach the final global warming extinction tipping point of carbon 600 ppm.
If the lottery selection for migration to the global warming safer zones is made justly and fairly, it will be viewed as credible and has the best chance to work.
There are many good reasons for executing this last chance to save humanity and civilization migration, lottery, and infrastructure transfer backup plan simultaneously with the other action steps described at the top of this page. Here are just a few reminders:
First, we are fighting for the very survival of humanity over the next 30 to 50+ years. Most if not all of humanity and civilization will end if we fail to slow and lessen global warming enough not to cross carbon 600 ppm and, we fail to move our critical infrastructure and essential populations to the far north or the far south in time.
Secondly, Our fossil fuel "bill of consequences" has come due, and there's no way to escape it. We now have to deal with the horrible accumulated consequences of the fossil fuel carbon pollution of our atmosphere for the last 200 years (since the industrial revolution began. ) Additionally, we also have to deal with the extra accumulating consequences from fossil fuel burning over the next 30-50+ years where we will undoubtedly reach the carbon 500 ppm level (and most likely reach carbon 600 ppm extinction level.)
Thirdly, the fossil fuel pollution that we have now and that we will continue to put into our atmosphere for the next 30-50+ years will last for centuries to thousands of years! If we stay on our current path of "too little fossil fuel reductions too late," things will not be better for those who are lucky enough to survive. Our children and future generations will curse us for our selfishness and blind stupidity. They will suffer for many centuries before their climate will re-stabilize and carbon in parts per million level to drop back down to the pre-industrial safer carbon level of 350-270 ppm. (As mentioned earlier, we are now at about carbon 420 ppm adding about three additional carbon ppm each year.)
Forthy, the amount of emergency adaptation work needed and the short amount of time available (from now until about 10-20 years from now as things get progressively much worse,) makes this immediate adaptation and preparation step an action and planning imperative! Adapting and moving all necessary critical resources, technology, infrastructure will take a lot of time. This mass transfer means moving them into the safer areas near or above the 45th parallel north or near or below the 45th parallel south. (You do not want to move much above the 55th parallel north or much above the 55th parallel south.)
And finally, these transfers will be a massive undertaking, which will require new levels of cooperation between nations never seen before.
This mass population transfer and the demands for justice also mean:
1. Moving willing people that already are suffering and are the most vulnerable today to the worst global warming consequences. This initial series of mass migrations must be done without panic and in a well-organized and well-supported way. These first migration relocations also will be a necessary rehearsal for the additional millions of people that will need to be relocated each year as global warming worsens and makes growing food and surviving impossible in many areas.
2. Moving hundreds of millions of willing people (eventually as many as several billion) from the most unsafe global warming zones into the safer zones. This mass migration will be fraught with challenges that will require profound international cooperation at unprecedented levels. This ongoing year-by-year migration will, by necessity and urgency, become the greatest migration in human history.
This "Great Global Migration" without question needs to begin now! If we wait until it's too late, there will be panic, chaos, and severe conflicts if not all-out international war as the remaining trapped populations and any lottery losers desperately try to migrate far north or far south.
People will eventually realize that what is happening today is not random, lousy weather. They will finally see our worsening climate as an increasing pattern of storms and other extreme weather consequences regularly increasing in frequency, severity, and scale that has not been seen for thousands of years if ever. Once they realize this, many more will then migrate.
By about 2029, we estimate that at least 2-5% of the world's population will have figured out that the wild climate fluctuations and seasonal extremes that they are witnessing are not random or freak occurrences. They will have figured out that the climate is destabilizing steadily and rapidly. They too will realize the climate catastrophes we are already experiencing are showing a clear pattern of ever-increasing severity, frequency, and scale (the size of the area they are covering).
Once these hundreds of millions of people realize they need to get out soon or get caught in the suffering, chaos, and death of crashing and soaring real estate, economies, and market prices (depending upon which area you're leaving or moving to,) they will migrate, and they will migrate desperate and fast!
Once these hundreds of millions migrate, others remaining will see and hear about it. Then those people will begin migrating, so they too do not get caught with no place to move to or too few resources left to get there.
To avoid the potential chaos of the Great Global Migration not well managed by cooperating world governments, our governments need to act NOW and not ten years from now.
Lastly, to make the new migration lottery system work effectively individuals already living near or above the 45th parallel north or near or above the 45th parallel south cannot and should not be removed to make room for new climagees. This existing resident removal strategy would only cause more conflict, delay, and confusion, which would further complicate an already massively complex undertaking.
Action Step 2: Pass new laws to prevent all unfair profiteering by any individual, corporation, or nation seeking to exploit the extinction emergency or the mass migrations to safer areas. It is critical to set severe penalties and to remove all profit from any entity charging more than the reasonable pre-emergency prices for food the global warming safer lands or anything else.
Actions Step 3: Moving critical infrastructure also includes moving the world's artistic, architectural, and cultural heritage from the global warming unsafe zones to the global warming safe zones for preservation. The best of our art, architecture, and cultures are also what make us human. These things contain critical elements of our history and who we are that will help keep us sane while going through this catastrophe.
Action Step 4: Move all needed global plant and animal diversity into the safest remaining areas.
Many needed plants and animals will not be able to migrate on their own in time to avoid extinction. Almost in a Noah's ark fashion, our governments must begin cataloging and making provisions to get all needed global plants and animals into the safer areas where they can survive and may be required.
Action Step 5: Educate and incentivize having the citizens of every nation begin their emergency preparations and backup plans. To be successful in saving the future, it is not only governments that must start acting in this area. Simultaneously, every citizen also needs to be responsible for themselves and become a part of the greatest mobilization of resources and people in human history. It is unlikely any government will have enough resources to protect all of its citizens. That is why you must begin your own Plan B preparations and planning. (The Job One plan has specific steps to help you do this. Click here to begin this section.)
Action Step 6: We need to ensure that nuclear reactors, nuclear and biological weapons, and toxic chemical manufacturing sites within all global warming unsafe zones are secured.
Secured means that all remaining more stable governments have an adequately resourced and ready backup plan in place for managing these contingencies as the less stable governments and economies collapse in the unsafe zones.
As global warming worsens inside the global warming unsafe zones, the political systems and nations will destabilize, and most of them will collapse. Once those political systems collapse, there will be no longer be stable and organized procedures, staffing, or resources for ensuring that:
1. any nuclear reactors within those areas do not meltdown and go critical or that,
2. nuclear or biological weapons within those areas are not stolen or triggered or that,
3. toxic chemical manufacturing sites within those areas do not leak.
If any of this happened, it would threaten not only the survival of that particular area, region, or the nations within that unsafe zone; it would also threaten the survival of the whole world.
Take a moment to imagine the hundreds of nuclear reactors in the global warming unsafe zones becoming new Chernobyls and Fukagimas one after another. There would be no place on earth nor any bunker that would keep you safe from this massive amount of radiation circling the planet for decades to hundreds to thousands of years.
Now take a moment to imagine, all of the biological and chemical weapons and toxic chemical manufacturing sites in the unsafe global warming zones becoming compromised and leaking their slow and painful death out into the world. Surviving this would be a living hell and near impossible.
The preceding worst-case nuclear, biological, and chemical catastrophe is what will likely happen if the nations of the world do not preemptively cooperate in this emergency area. The world's nations need to realize that our escalating climate change emergency is a no-win game unless they collaborate and make the best possible decisions to preserve the human species and our civilization.
If the governments of the world do not thoroughly do this action step two, there is no rational or reasonable hope that even the smallest part of the human race will survive to save civilization and repopulate the earth within the global warming safer zones.
Action Step 7: Each government must create archives containing all human knowledge needed for the post-collapse and post-dark age periods. These many archives must survive the post-collapse new dark ages for decades to centuries.
These archives will be essential to the survivors for rebuilding the world. The hope is that when survivors rebuild, they will use the archived knowledge and the many painful lessons of the great extinction and collapse to create a Great Global Rebirth.
Additionally, governments must also begin planning how to make the post-collapse dark ages as short as possible. The longer the post-collapse dark age period lasts, the lower the probability much of humanity will survive it. The longer the new dark age lasts, the likelihood of this tragedy empowering the Great Global Rebirth also diminishes radically.
Action Step 8: While the governments of the world are doing all of the action steps in 1-6 above, it is critically important that they also engage in the radical fossil fuel reduction action steps described in Part 3 of the Job One Plan. These additional steps are absolutely essential to slow down global warming enough so we still have adequate time left to prepare, adapt, and migrate so at least some of humanity will survive.
Never forget that getting at least close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets is our last best chance to prevent our reaching the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point. Unfortunately, it is highly probable that we will cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction-level tipping point.
(Please see this page if you have any doubts about why it is highly unlikely that we will reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. This page will also help explain why our world leaders must enact this governmental level emergency backup Plan B while passing the other actions steps listed here in the Job One Plan.)
Action Step 9: As soon as possible, our governments must honestly inform their citizens that the climate consequence-driven extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century is now unavoidable.
They must honestly let their citizens know that we must now make great sacrifices to save the other half of humanity because of their own six decades of inaction or ineffective climate action. Unless the public understands what has happened and why they may be unwilling to make the necessary sacrifices to save the younger generations.
To inform their citizens thoroughly and adequately, our politicians must now tell them about the ten most important facts about our climate and runaway global heating condition.
Giving the public this horrible news will also allow them more time to prepare physically, emotionally, and spiritually as best as possible. If done correctly and soon, it should help prevent public panic and inspire a new level of global cooperation to save the younger X, Y, Z, and A generations.
Additionally, any politician who failed to effectively cut fossil fuel subsidies over the last six decades or order the correct critical fossil fuel reductions must voluntarily exclude and bar themselves (and their families) from any climate migration or enhanced safety program benefit in any global heating safer area. This justice-inspired benefit restriction is because these politicians are the most responsible for failing to do their jobs concerning the decades-long escalation of the climate and global heating extinction threat. And finally,
Action Step 10: Our governments must also convince the older generations to help finance the younger generations getting prepared or migrating and rebuilding in new, safer locations.
It is the right thing to do for those generations who have not had as much time to live like the older generations. It is also the right thing to do because the older generations have a greater responsibility for restitution. This greater restitution and climate justice responsibility is valid because, despite six decades of valid scientific warnings, they allowed the runaway global heating extinction emergency to occur on their watch.