Last Updated 2.15.23
Special notice: it is essential to realize that everything described below, which our governments must do as their emergency backup plan to save some part of humanity, must be done while our governments are also simultaneously completing all of the global fossil fuel reduction actions described on this critical page.)
Here is the uncensored news. We will miss our required 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by a lot if our politicians and governments keep going as they are now.
These missed targets will cause humanity to unavoidably lose half of the global population by mid-century. This mass die-off will be primarily because of our politicians' and governments' 60 years of inaction or ineffective action on fixing escalating global heating emergency.
Unfortunately, even if we come close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets but do not get close enough, we will still face a highly probable near-total extinction by 2070-2080.
We need to prepare ourselves NOW. The unavoidable deaths of half of humanity by mid-century will produce widespread social, economic, and political chaos illustrated by the many climate change consequences and processes described in painful detail on this page.
We now have to deal with the painful reality that humanity may fail to save much of itself from the climate change extinction emergency. Part of that possibility is facing the fact that we currently are doing very poorly in getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
What this means on a national level is that we need a national-level emergency backup plan or a PLAN B, as it is often called.
On a national level, as part of our Plan B, we must prepare, adapt, and save and salvage whatever we can before it is too late. We need to build some level of near-total to total extinction resilience quickly. (Ideally, we should be building an international extinction resiliency, but we currently have no genuinely effective international global governance that could do this for us.)
At some point, our politicians and governments will finally begin to do everything they can to come as close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets as fast as they can. Still, unfortunately, at the same time, they must simultaneously also manage the current runaway global heating process of multiple threats and multiple consequences.
Our governments can enact a climate change extinction prevention process and Plan B by moving critical resources, technology, infrastructure, and at-risk populations into the global warming safer zones as soon as possible. But this must be done wisely, equitably, and orderly way.
The following governmental-level Plan B resilience section describes the many actions our governments must manage for a large portion of humanity to survive. The genuinely shocking and painful measures below are necessary because, as things stand now, the odds are not very good that we will get very close to the last-chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets for quite a while. This failure to come close to the legitimate reduction targets means that the percentage of human survivors will be pretty low.
For our politicians and governments to effectively manage a global warming-driven extinction and collapse process, they also will have to evolve new forms of international and global governance and cooperation quickly. This new global governance would need powers to verify, enforce or punish any nation that tried to game or cheat making the complex global Plan B changes required to save whatever portion of humanity and civilization we can for the future.
Only our national governments collaborating in tight alignment can slow down our current runaway global heating enough to allow more people to survive, live longer, and live more stably. But, unfortunately, the probability of our governments cooperating internationally like this before it is too late to save humanity from near-total to total extinction is very low.
Please click here to read the many near-insurmountable challenges our national governments must overcome to save humanity from the current climate change-driven extinction process.
Please click here to view a detailed description of the many climate change-driven step-by-step processes of mass human extinction.
This Plan B government-level resilience backup plan will prepare our nations and humanity for the worst possible outcomes. At least, with this governmental level, emergency backup Plan B successfully executed, we can save and salvage more of humanity. Then, hopefully, those survivors can re-populate the earth and preserve the best of our civilization.
If you still doubt that immediately beginning a government-driven and well-resourced Plan B backup and resiliency plan against climate change failure is necessary, please read this page.
The key runaway global heating government actions to save and salvage what we can while we still have time
Global warming and these other 11 poorly managed critical global challenges we currently face are most likely getting a lot worse before they get better. While the actions below are directly focused on the more immediate threat of the runaway global heating emergency, indirectly, they too will also be helpful to make things more survivable as our other critical global challenges continue to worsen.)
Action Step 1. Our governments must begin moving critical resources, technology, key infrastructure, and our younger at-risk populations into the global warming safer zones in a wise, equitable, and well-managed way.
For our long-term future and safety, essential resources, infrastructure, and crucial genetic and social diversity transfers will need to be executed simultaneously as the other individual and business action steps (above) are being done. If things continue to go wrong as they are now, this government action step may turn out to be the most important action taken for the future of humanity and for preserving civilization.
Of all of the things to be done in this step, working out a migration plan for a fair and equitable migration lottery for all those younger individuals who have not already migrated will be the most challenging. This equitable migration management is critical because of the poor soils and shorter growing seasons above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south.
Those above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south areas of deficient soils and inadequate sunlight will not be able to grow enough food to feed our current human population. Because of this food production limitation, a fair lottery will be essential to the survival of humanity and civilization.
Even before this lottery begins, our best scientists must determine how much food can be grown in those global warming-safe areas and what the maximum allowable population should be. These calculations are based on the total amount of food needed for that existing population while maintaining adequate food reserves for unplanned and unexpected contingencies. Once they have those calculations, they can set initial and/or adjust lottery migration allocations as conditions change.
Even before the final number of people that the remaining global warming safe zones will support with adequate food production, we must also mobilize the necessary agricultural resources to scale up food production but only in sustainable and non-fossil fuel fertilizer-dependent ways. This intense scaling-up of sustainable agricultural production output will allow for the rapid increase of new climate migrants (climagees) coming to those safer zones as well as to compensate for the generally more deficient soils, reduced sunlight and shorter growing season found there.
One more thing must be said about the migration lottery. It must be almost entirely for individuals under 30 or those older than 40 with young children. The older generations have failed to pass on a livable legacy to the younger generations. The older generations have also lived far longer and more stable lives than the younger X, Y, and Z generations ever will. Therefore, generational justice demands that the most survivable remaining areas go to the younger generations.
The lottery cannot be hijacked or dominated by wealthy individuals, politicians, high-level government agency staff, corporations, or any nation. No special interest group or nation can unjustly control or determine who can migrate based on privilege, position, wealth, politics, or any other national, cultural, or social categorization.
Politicians and the ultra-wealthy top 5% of the world's citizens especially must be excluded from this lottery because, through either commissions or omissions, they have allowed the climate change extinction emergency to grow continually worse for over 60 years. They had the power of influence to stop the climate nightmare, and they did not. Climate change justice demands they be left behind.
If it is not a fair and just lottery, based upon what is essential for humanity and civilization to survive and an equitable representation of all of the categories mentioned above, then those left behind will fight to the death and eventually bring about the end of everything. This new lottery failure conflict will occur because those who feel the lottery was unfair will invade the safe zones. They will use whatever nuclear, biological, or chemical warfare technology has been left behind in unsafe zones.
Those with any decision power over who is allowed to migrate can not be allowed to use their political, military, or financial positions, advantages, or privileges to place themselves, their families, friends, allies, or business interests in any better position than any other individual citizen in the unsafe zones in these lotteries.
Any random lottery winner selection methodology must draw only from a pool of the most qualified climagees with the essential skills and sufficient genetic diversity for the new world we will be living in. It must also have independent safeguards to prevent fraud, bias, and any form of selection favoritism.
This lottery must also allow for the following types of necessary diversity; genetic, national, racial, ethnic, religious, cultural, sexual orientation, gender identity, rural/urban/indigenous, and rich/poor. Communities most affected by global warming damage, which also have contributed the least to the climate change emergency, should receive special consideration if justice is to be served.
Having enough genetic diversity will be extremely important because most of humanity by mid-century will eventually die. This will occur as we approach the final global warming extinction tipping point of carbon 600 ppm.
Because of the very limited numbers of additional individuals that the global warming safer areas can sustain and feed the lottery selection for legal migration to the global warming safer zones must be just and fair to be viewed as credible and so that it has the best chance to work.
There are many good reasons for executing this last chance to save humanity and civilization migration, lottery, and infrastructure transfer backup plan simultaneously with the other action steps described at the top of this page. Here are just a few reminders:
First, we are fighting for the very survival of humanity over the next 30 to 50+ years. Most, if not all, of humanity and civilization will end if we fail to slow and lessen global warming enough not to cross carbon 600 ppm and we fail to move our critical infrastructure and essential populations to the far north or the far south in time.
Secondly, Our fossil fuel "bill of consequences" has come due, and there's no way to escape it. We now have to deal with the horrible accumulated consequences of the fossil fuel carbon pollution of our atmosphere for the last 200 years (since the industrial revolution began. ) Additionally, we also have to deal with the extra accumulating consequences from fossil fuel burning over the next 30-50+ years where we will undoubtedly reach the carbon 500 ppm level (and most likely reach carbon 600 ppm extinction level.)
Thirdly, the fossil fuel pollution that we have now and will continue to put into our atmosphere for the next 30-50+ years will last for centuries to thousands of years! If we stay on our current path of "too little fossil fuel reductions too late," things will not be better for those who are lucky enough to survive. Our children and future generations will curse us for our selfishness and blind stupidity. They will suffer for many centuries before their climate will re-stabilize and carbon in parts per million level to drop back down to the pre-industrial safer carbon level of 350-270 ppm. (As mentioned earlier, we are now at about carbon 420 ppm adding about three additional carbon ppm each year.)
Forthy, the amount of emergency adaptation work needed and the short amount of time available (from now until about 2031 as things get progressively to exponentially much worse) makes this immediate adaptation and preparation and planning an imperative! Adapting and moving all necessary critical resources, technology, and infrastructure will take a lot of time. This mass transfer means moving them into the safer areas near or above the 45th parallel north or near or below the 45th parallel south. (You do not want to move much above the 55th parallel north or much above the 55th parallel south.)
And finally, these transfers will be a massive undertaking, requiring new levels of cooperation between nations never seen before.
This mass population transfer and the demands for climate justice also mean:
1. Moving willing people that are already suffering and are the most vulnerable today to the worst global warming consequences. This initial series of mass migrations must be done without panic and in a well-organized and well-supported way. These first migration relocations also will be a necessary rehearsal for the additional millions of people that will need to be relocated each year as global warming worsens and makes growing food and surviving impossible in many areas.
2. Moving hundreds of millions of willing people (eventually as many as several billion) from the most unsafe global warming zones into the safer zones. This mass migration will be fraught with challenges that will require profound international cooperation at unprecedented levels. This ongoing year-by-year migration will, by necessity and urgency, become the greatest migration in human history.
Without question, this "Great Global Migration" needs to begin now! If we wait until it's too late, there will be panic, chaos, and severe local, regional, and national conflicts, if not all-out international war, as the remaining trapped populations and any lottery losers desperately try by any means possible to migrate far north or far south.
People will eventually realize that what is happening today is not random, lousy weather. They will finally see our worsening climate as an increasing pattern of storms and other extreme weather consequences regularly increasing in frequency, severity, and scale that has not been seen for thousands of years, if ever. Once they realize this, many more will migrate because they finally realize "it is migrate or die."
By about 2029, we estimate that at least 2-5% of the world's population will have figured out that the wild climate fluctuations and seasonal extremes they are witnessing are not random or freak occurrences. They will have figured out that the climate is destabilizing steadily and rapidly. They, too, will realize the climate catastrophes we are already experiencing are showing a clear pattern of ever-increasing severity, frequency, and scale (the size of the area they are covering).
Once these hundreds of millions of people realize they need to get out soon or get caught in the suffering, chaos, and death of crashing and soaring real estate, economies, and market prices (depending upon which area you're leaving or moving to,) they will migrate, and they will migrate desperate and fast!
Once these hundreds of millions migrate, others will see and hear about it. Then those people will begin migrating so they do not get caught with no place to move to or too few resources left to get there.
To avoid the potential chaos of the Great Global Migration not well managed by cooperating world governments, our governments need to act NOW and not ten years from now.
As part of necessary climate justice, those nations which have caused the most fossil fuel burning atmospheric pollution and damage, which has caused global warming, must also take in the most climate migrants to the highest level that farming in that nation will support.
Lastly, to make the new migration lottery system work effectively, individuals already living near or above the 45th parallel north or near or above the 45th parallel south cannot and should not be removed to make room for new climagees. This existing resident removal strategy would only cause more conflict, delay, and confusion, further complicating an already massively complex undertaking.
Action Step 2: Pass new laws to prevent all unfair profiteering by any individual, corporation, or nation seeking to exploit the extinction emergency or the mass migrations to safer areas. It is critical to set severe penalties and to remove all profit from any entity charging more than the reasonable pre-emergency prices for food, global warming safer lands, or anything else.
Actions Step 3: Moving critical infrastructure also includes moving the world's artistic, architectural, and cultural heritage from unsafe global warming zones to safer zones for preservation. The best of our art, architecture, and cultures also makes us human. These things contain critical elements of our history and who we are that will help keep us sane while going through this catastrophe.
Action Step 4: Move all needed global plant and animal diversity into the safest remaining areas.
Many needed plants and animals will be unable to migrate on their own in time to avoid extinction. Almost in Noah's ark fashion, our governments must begin cataloging and making provisions to get all needed global plants and animals into the safer areas where they can survive and may be required.
Action Step 5: Educate and incentivize the citizens of every nation to begin their emergency preparations and backup plans. To be successful in saving the future, it is not only governments that must start acting in this area. Simultaneously, every citizen also needs to be responsible for themselves and become a part of the greatest mobilization of resources and people in human history. It is unlikely any government will have enough resources to protect all of its citizens. That is why you must begin your own Plan B preparations and planning. (The Job One plan has specific steps to help you do this. Click here to begin this section.)
Action Step 6: We must ensure that ALL nuclear reactors, nuclear and biological weapons, and toxic chemical manufacturing sites within all unsafe global warming zones are secured.
Secured means that all remaining more stable governments have an adequately resourced and ready backup plan to manage these contingencies as the less stable governments and economies collapse in the unsafe zones.
As global warming worsens inside the global warming unsafe zones, the political systems and nations will destabilize, and most of them will collapse. Once those political systems collapse, there will no longer be stable and organized procedures, staffing, or resources for ensuring that:
1. any nuclear reactors within those areas do not meltdown and go critical or that,
2. nuclear or biological weapons within those areas are not stolen or triggered or that,
3. toxic chemical manufacturing sites within those areas do not leak.
If any of this happened, it would not only threaten the survival of that particular area, region, or the nations within that unsafe zone but also the whole world's survival.
Take a moment to imagine the hundreds of nuclear reactors in the global warming unsafe zones becoming new Chernobyls and Fukagimas one after another. There would be no place on earth nor any bunker that would keep you safe from this massive amount of radiation circling the planet for decades to hundreds to thousands of years.
Now take a moment to imagine all of the biological and chemical weapons and toxic chemical manufacturing sites in the unsafe global warming zones becoming compromised and leaking their slow and painful death out into the world. Surviving this would be a living hell and nearly impossible.
The preceding worst-case nuclear, biological, and chemical catastrophe will likely happen if the nations of the world do not preemptively cooperate in this additional emergency preparation area. The world's nations need to realize that our escalating climate change emergency is a no-win game unless they collaborate and make the best possible decisions to preserve the human species and our civilization.
If the governments of the world do not thoroughly do this action step two, there is no rational or reasonable hope that even the smallest part of the human race will survive to save civilization and repopulate the earth within the global warming safer zones.
Action Step 7: Each government must create multiple archives containing all human knowledge needed for the post-collapse and post-dark age periods. These multiple archives must survive the post-collapse and probable new dark ages for decades to centuries.
These archives will be essential to the survivors for rebuilding the world. The hope is that when survivors rebuild, they will use the archived knowledge and the many painful lessons of the great extinction and collapse to create a Great Global Rebirth.
Governments must also begin planning how to make the post-collapse dark ages as short as possible. The longer the post-collapse dark age period lasts, the lower the probability much of humanity will survive it. The longer the new dark age lasts, the likelihood of this tragedy empowering the Great Global Rebirth also diminishes radically.
Action Step 8: While the governments of the world are doing all of the action steps in 1-6 above, it is critically important that they also engage in the radical fossil fuel reduction action steps described in Part 3 of the Job One Plan. These additional steps are absolutely essential to slow down global warming enough so we still have adequate time left to prepare, adapt, and migrate so at least some of humanity will survive.
Never forget that getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets is our last best chance to prevent reaching the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point. Unfortunately, it is highly probable that we will cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction-level tipping point.
(Please see this page if you have doubts about why it is highly unlikely that we will reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. This page will also help explain why our world leaders must enact this governmental-level emergency backup Plan B while passing the other action steps listed here in the Job One Plan.)
Action Step 9: As soon as possible, our governments must honestly inform their citizens that the climate consequence-driven extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century is now unavoidable.
They must honestly let their citizens know that we must now make great sacrifices to save the other half of humanity because of their own six decades of inaction or ineffective climate action. Unless the public understands what has happened and why they may be unwilling to make the necessary sacrifices to save the younger generations.
To inform their citizens thoroughly and adequately, our politicians must now tell them about the ten most important facts about our climate and runaway global heating condition.
Giving the public this horrible news will also allow them more time to prepare physically, emotionally, and spiritually as best as possible. If done correctly and soon, it should help prevent public panic and inspire a new level of global cooperation to save the younger X, Y, Z, and A generations.
Additionally, any politician who failed to effectively cut fossil fuel subsidies over the last six decades or order the correct critical fossil fuel reductions must voluntarily exclude and bar themselves (and their families) from any climate migration or enhanced safety program benefit in any global heating safer area. This justice-inspired benefit restriction is because these politicians are the most responsible for failing to do their jobs concerning the decades-long escalation of the climate and global heating extinction threat. And finally,
Action Step 10: Our governments must also convince the older generations to help finance the younger generations getting prepared or migrating and rebuilding in new, safer locations.
It is the right thing to do for those generations who have not had as much time to live as the older generations. It is also the right thing to do because the older generations have a greater responsibility for restitution. This greater restitution and climate justice responsibility is valid because, despite six decades of valid scientific warnings, they allowed the runaway global heating extinction emergency to occur on their watch.
Action Step 11: As a crucial part of the governmental Plan B, all major fossil fuel-polluting nations must begin to educate their citizens about their obligations under the principles of climate justice. They must thoroughly educate their citizens about the sacrifices that most nations in global warming safer zones will have to make because of climate justice factors.
It is climate justice for the nations that have created the most fossil fuel pollution (mostly the northern and developed countries) to take in the desperate victims of their fossil fuel pollution acts (mainly refugees from the southern and under-developed countries.) However, unless global warming safer nations actively begin this climate justice educational process today, there will be tremendous turmoil and conflict. This conflict will occur as hundreds of millions (to billions) of "migrate or die" climate refugees mass migrate out of the global warming high-risk southern areas into safer northern regions and nations.
Action Step 11: Humanity must simultaneously work to discover ALL of the deepest causes of the climate change extinction emergency and then begin fixing every cause of the climate change emergency to prevent such a global catastrophe from ever occurring again.
Action Step 12: Humanity must learn to live in a new sustainable relationship with Earth's existing resources and ecosystems.
A smaller humanity will need to learn how to live with far less so those who survive may thrive again.
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