(The 2024 and beyond climate forecast and longer-term predictions below are not for individuals under 16 years old. These serious climate change problems are far too upsetting and complex for children under 16 to understand or deal with in healthy or rational ways.)
Job One for Humanity, founded in 2008, is a non-profit, 100% publicly funded, independent climate change think tank that provides a holistic "big picture" climate change overview and uncensored dialectical meta-systemic and systems theory analysis of the inter-connected and inter-dependent climate systems and sub-systems creating our current climate change and global heating emergency. It is part of a 30-year-old US, IRS-recognized tax-exempt, nonprofit organization.
Job One for Humanity supplies research-grounded climate change consequence analysis, timeframes, risk assessment, and solutions to educational, climate, and environmental organizations worldwide without charge.
In late December each year, we update and publish our climate change forecast and predictions for the following year. As a result of the accuracy of our many past annual forecasts and predictions, this page is one of our most shared web pages.
The sections found on this page:
- The forecasted consequences of climate change and global heating for 2024.
- The four biggest climate change tipping points and warning signs for 2024.
- How intensifying climate change consequences will affect your life will not be anything like how most people think it will happen.
- The predicted consequences of climate change and global heating in 2025-2031.
- The predicted consequences of climate change and global heating for the next 2-5 decades, 2030 to 2050.
- How to prepare, adapt, survive, and help reduce the consequences of climate change, the predicted extinctions caused by global climate heating, and the many benefits that humanity will reap if we fix the climate heating emergency.
Each item above is explained in detail in the sections that follow below.
Introduction to our 2024 climate change consequence predictions
We issue our climate change consequence predictions for the following year in late December each year. We also update them again just before the summer begins each June.
In addition to the 2024 forecast and predictions, there are longer-term predictions for the next 30 years that are further below the 2024 predictions.
Below are the many climate change consequences that you, your family, your business, or someone you know may already be experiencing or will most likely experience sometime in 2024.
Many of the climate consequences below are expressed more specifically than in the very broad climate change summary overview found in our 10-fact summary of our current climate change condition. The 2024 forecast below is more specific and different because you and I will experience or witness the climate consequences below on particular and personal levels.
You may also be quite surprised by the nature of many of the 2024 climate change forecasts and predictions!
1. The Climate Change Consequences that Will Most Affect You, Your Family, Your Business, and Your Nation in 2024
You are about to read the forecast for the many escalating consequences of climate change in 2024. We strongly recommend printing this 2024 climate change consequence forecast and then watching your region's news and weather. Then, check off each consequence you witness to verify their accuracy as you watch and experience the 2024 climate change forecast occurring.
Knowing these widely recognized climate change forecast predictions before they occur can help keep you, your family, and your business from real harm, loss, and getting caught off guard by the accelerating consequences of the global climate change emergency!
In general, individuals, businesses, and nations worldwide will experience more frequent, severe, and larger scaled: extreme storms and the following additional consequences:
1. increasing heatwaves, heat domes, and considerably more 100 degrees + days. (More 100 degrees + days during the growing season means more crop failures and lower yields.)
Increased heat and warm weather during winter will also cause more rain in winter dangerous freezing rain, and ice storms. These winter ice and freezing rain storms will take down power lines and disrupt transportation, manufacturing, food production, and life in general.
2, Increasing heat will also mean increasing wind and wind speeds almost everywhere. Think about the seldom discussed consequences of climate change increasing wind like this. Our atmosphere will increasingly "boil and churn" as it continues to warm each year, much like you would see an increase in water boiling and churning as the heat is increased under a pressure cooker.
This "pressure cooker" wind-increasing effect is because the top layer of our atmosphere acts like a pressure cooker lid, keeping most of our climate change warming and heat inside our lower atmosphere. Increasing winds worldwide will eventually become one of the most damaging and consistent consequences of climate change. (For example, the western coast of the United States will see a significant increase in 70-100 mile per hour wind events. Worldwide, tornadoes and Derechos will occur in places they have not previously occurred, and they will become more frequent in places where they have occurred previously.)
3. more atmospheric rivers in existing and new locations where rain storm after rain storm pummels an area with little time between each new rain storm.
4. rain bombs, where a week, month, or season's worth of rain falls in a few hours or days,
5. sewers backing up and raw human and industrial sewage being dumped into rivers, lakes, bays, and coastal waters because of flooding and rain bombs,
5. water treatment plant purification problems because of flooding and rain bombs,
6. droughts (We are currently experiencing global warming-aggravated mega-droughts that have lasted one or more decades in the US Southwest and West, Africa, and Australia.)
7. there will be many more damaging and dangerous ice storms as winter weather rapidly changes from warm and rainy to freezing cold. These ice storms will disrupt personal and business transportation. This increase in ice storms will be tough on the airline industry, which will have to cancel many more flights because of heavily iced runways and airplane deicing issues.
8. smaller mountain snowpacks and/or far faster spring snowpack melting in the spring because of warmer temperatures and earlier spring rains, causing more record-breaking flash flooding downstream and less water available from the annual snowpack to be saved for crops and other uses,
9. desertification: more land will drought out and be unusable,
10. despite it often being called global warming, climate change computer modeling predicts many unseasonable and intense cold spells occurring because the jet stream has started to wobble and become more unstable. This extreme instability brings much colder air from the far north down into areas and at times where it would not usually occur.
11. larger fires spreading even faster because of predicted higher velocity winds, heat, and droughts,
12. wildfires, and wildfire smoke issues (Wildfires will increase due to increasing heat and droughts. Wildfire smoke is full of the most health-dangerous PM 2.5 particles.)
13. more intense or frequent hurricanes, Derechos, cyclones, tornadoes, and extreme wind events (We will see Category six hurricanes and cyclones. These new category six hurricanes and typhoons will occur due to the extra global warming-caused heat in our atmosphere and oceans. The category six hurricane level begins with maximum sustained winds of 182 MPH. (Just two category six hurricanes have been recorded so far: Patricia and Wilma.)
14. greatly increased air turbulence and extreme air turbulence, as reported by airlines and airline passengers. More flights will be canceled because of high wind and extreme weather conditions. More airplanes will have emergency landings or crash because of climate-related extreme weather.
15. more annual, quarterly, or monthly airplane flight cancelations due to extreme weather conditions,
16. the intervals between changing weather patterns will grow shorter, with differences in the types of weather changes becoming more extreme. For example, droughts will take less time to turn into rain bombs, and winter snow will turn into rain and ice. Calm days will go to intense wind gusts more quickly. Much of this will be because the atmosphere is heating up like a pressure cooker. The contents inside that pressure cooker (our atmosphere) are churning and moving faster and faster as the global temperature rises.
17. increased toxic fossil fuel burning-related air pollution will cause many millions of additional global cases of childhood asthma and other respiratory ailments.
18. many individuals will experience allergies for the first time or more intensely as weather and growing patterns change worldwide and more carbon dioxide (good for plants) enters the atmosphere.
19. loss of biodiversity through more animal, fish, and insect extinctions,
20. more frequent power outages covering larger areas and lasting longer because of high winds, downed trees, fires, flooding, and other climate-related extreme weather,
20. sea-level rise and weather-induced flooding near coastal areas, rivers, streams, and lakes,
21. more people will experience more commuting delays and disruptions due to climate-related extreme weather events.
22. more people will have serious health problems after climate change catastrophes (such as breathing and respiratory problems after breathing in wildfire smoke and other health problems after flooding due to chemicals, sewage, and molds in the flood waters.
23. increased toxic fossil fuel burning-related air pollution and air pollution-related deaths and diseases from burning carbon and methane-based fossil fuels. Directly or indirectly, air pollution causes approximately 11 to 13% of ALL global deaths each year. That is about one out of every eight global deaths, roughly 10 million people a year!
24. there will be more out-of-control algae blooms in lakes, rivers, and coastal areas due to the combination of rising air and water temperatures and various forms of human pollution of the lakes, rivers, and coastal waters.
25. more insurance companies will skyrocket rates or deny or cancel their insurance policies for homes, businesses, farms, autos, crop failure, and even life insurance in climate change high-risk zones. More mortgage insurance companies will refuse to provide ANY home business or farm mortgages for climate change high-risk areas or skyrocket the rates. This will result in severe real estate losses in climate change high-risk areas because homes, buildings, or farms will be very hard to sell without being able to secure mortgage insurance.
More insurance companies will also abandon the previous 100-year floodplain, wildfire, and extreme weather risk charts and look to create new 1,000-year or 10,000-year floodplain, wildfire, and extreme weather charts. These new charts will better compensate them for the accelerating consequences and risks of global warming. Click here for a detailed article on this accelerating wave of insurance problems for climate change high-risk areas.
26. more states and nations will require energy-efficient air-conditioning to be installed in all new homes and even in many older homes as temperatures and heat deaths continue to rise.
27. more individuals and businesses will lose wages, sales, and productivity due to delays or repairs needed after climate change-driven extreme weather events. (The poor and middle class will be hardest hit financially by the endless stream of accelerating climate-related disasters.)
28. expect an increase in sudden but temporary severe spikes in prices for your energy bills and other critical commodities because of the sudden changes in climate change-driven extreme weather consequences. These unprecedented sudden weather extremes will drastically affect the prices of all kinds of energy (electric, gasoline, home heating oil, diesel, etc.) and other critical commodity inventories, reserves, and transportation.
29. more people are going deeper into debt and having bill-paying problems after being impacted by climate change-driven extreme weather events, especially since most of the damages will no longer be paid by the government's emergency relief organizations as the sheer number and severity of these climate catastrophes continue to rise,
30. more crop losses due to abnormal seasons and essential weather appearing at the wrong time of the season for crop survival, i.e., rain bombs in the sprint planting time, high wind Derechos at harvest time, etc.,
31. more resource shortages due to climate-related consequences causing rapidly rising resource prices,
32. significant unseasonable changes like rain and warm weather during winter followed quickly severe cold spells, then back to warm or rain, then cold again in both winter and summer. These rapid changes in warm-to-cold and wet-to-dry weather are because the jet stream has started to wobble and become more unstable.
33. seasons not beginning or ending when they usually would, especially dangerous for crops and gardens,
34. increased animal and insect migrations trying to adapt to climate consequences. This will bring more new insect and animal diseases to new and completely unprepared areas,
35. you will begin hearing about highways buckling and crumbling because of new higher temperatures being reached beyond their original design specifications,
36. you will begin hearing about slowed transportation services due to high temperatures or flooding. Some trains in some countries will not run or run slowly because their rails will warp in the extreme heat. More and more ports and warehouses will flood and go offline,
37. shrinking sea ice and ice shelves, glaciers and snowpack,
38. accelerating reef collapses around the world, which negatively affects fish spawning and feeding areas, which causes the collapse of critical protein global fish populations, which causes more human starvation around the world.
39. increased ocean acidification, making biological life harder for many species and fish stocks in the oceans.
40. increased starvation worldwide; this starvation will be primarily because of climate-related crop failures and crop yield reductions. Crops will fail or be stunted because of global warming-aggravated heatwaves, rain bombs, droughts, flooding, wildfires, out-of-season cold spells, hail, Derechos (severe wind storms), and other extreme weather or out-of-season weather destabilization.
41. food prices will rise steadily to compensate for crop losses considerably more than the typical cost of living increases. Food costs will become a significantly larger portion of the budgets of the poor and middle class.
42. there will be more frequent, extreme weather-caused temporary and long-term evacuations from affected areas. These ordered evacuations will cause great hardship and costs to those evacuated.
43. commuting, personal road trips, and vacations will take longer or be disrupted more frequently because of more climate change-related extreme weather events.
44. far more people will suffer and die in 2024 because of climate change-related consequences than in any previous year. The number of people worldwide who will die from the direct and indirect effects of the primary and secondary climate change consequences will increase to around 120-160 million.
45. the disabled and poor will suffer disproportionately more because of climate change consequences.
46. increased methane releases from melting tundra and permafrost (methane as a heat-producing greenhouse gas is about 80 times more potent than carbon in heating the atmosphere.)
47. in 2021, 75% of the world experienced weather extremes due to climate change, like those mentioned in this document. In 2024 that percentage goes to 90% of humanity or more.
48. San Francisco, California, will wisely be the first city to change its current 2-3-foot protective bay sea wall plans and build at least a ten-foot sea wall to survive projected sea-level rise over the following decades.
49. 2024 will be another year in which more weather and climate records will be broken than in 2022. These new records will not be in areas good for humanity.
50. at some point, more individuals and businesses that have been hit repeatedly by climate-related disasters and have repaired or rebuilt after each disaster will realize that they can't keep doing the same thing and expect different results. They will eventually begin moving and migrating to the limited areas of the world where they will be significantly safer from the worst consequences of runaway global warming, at least for a while longer.
51. more COVID-19 variant outbreaks, other epidemics, and more Covid-like new pandemics. (Aids, Mers, Sars, Swine flu, Avian bird flu, and most likely Covid-19 are zoological viral diseases that have come to humans from animals. This zoological disease cross-over effect is fueled by the loss of natural animal habitat, eating more wild animals, overcrowding causing more human-to-animal interactions, less resilient health systems, mass animal and human migrations, and the melting of the permafrost and its ancient viral and bacterial pathogens.
50. a larger portion of humanity will become aware of the truth of our global warming extinction emergency and that our governments have failed for decades to make the required global fossil fuel reductions when global fossil fuel reduction would have been far easier to make and could have been far more gradual and less painful.
52. the most expensive single-incident global climate change disaster in 2024 will approach or exceed 300 billion dollars in total cost. The total cost of ALL global climate change-related damages will significantly exceed 1 trillion dollars. In 2024, the US and many other countries will, directly and indirectly, be forced to spend about 3-5% of their total gross domestic product (GDP) on climate change-related consequences. These accelerating climate damage expenses have not been planned into any national budget we know about. (The current US GDP is just over 28 trillion dollars.)
53. There will continue to be a mass human migration of climagees (climate refugees) to the safer global warming zones. In 2019, the United Nations estimated that 100 million individuals migrated from high-risk areas to safer areas or countries because of their homelands' deteriorating climate. In 2024, because of the increases in the primary and secondary consequences of climate change, the number of climagees will be from 120 million to 160 million.
54. the fossil fuel industries will continue to be able to export and transfer the above-listed financial costs and losses for the damages and suffering their products cause unfairly to the citizens of every nation. It will be you who will pay the higher local state and national taxes and higher insurance rates. Because of the above climate change effects, you will also have to pay personally for any climate-related damages and losses not covered fully by your insurance.
55. most of humanity will still not grasp that if we do not come close to the correct 75% global fossil fuel reduction targets sometime close to 2025 (but no later than 2031 if we are very fortunate,) about half of humanity will die by mid-century.
56. major environmental groups will continue to allow the fossil fuel-friendly and "far too little, far too late" fossil fuel reduction targets of the world governments to go unchallenged.
57. ocean temperatures will continue to increase, creating more intense storms and losses in ocean biodiversity,
58. more frequent hail storms with larger hail stones,
59. more banks will turn down construction or remodeling loans for buildings in climate change high-risk areas,
60. more people will die in climate change-related consequences,
61. more infrastructures, such as dams, bridges, etc., will catastrophically fail worldwide because they were constructed to withstand 100-year extreme weather events, not the record-breaking 1,000-year or 10,000-year climate change-driven extreme weather events that are here now and will continue to worsen.
62. as climate change increases heat and produces more, longer droughts covering larger areas, traditional legal water rights for nations, states, regions, and individuals will increasingly be challenged in the courts, renegotiated, and changed. This global reallocation process and changes to pre-existing legal water rights will be required to deal with today's harsh climate change realities and our better understanding of climate change and hydrology (the study of water, water conservation, etc.)
63. individuals and businesses will generally experience more climate change-related extreme weather consequences this year, resulting in significantly more inconveniences, delays, losses, and expenses. More individuals and businesses will feel impacted by what seems like a never-ending chain of bad weather events.
64. There will be a rise in religious fundamentalism and religious extremism as more people become fearful of negative climate changes they see occurring but do not understand. Matching this troubling pattern will be similar patterns in politics.
As people become more fearful, they will also elect more nationalistic and dictatorial governments looking for any quick and easy solution to alleviate their fears. Injustices (and even private and public mental breakdowns) will increase because of the continually growing stresses of intensifying climate change-related consequences.
65. in 2024, global action to fix the climate change emergency will not change significantly from its current denial and avoidance of the real, honest, and effective actions needed to fix this global emergency. Only drastically greater and widespread painful personal and business climate change disruption and experience will sufficiently increase our collective climate change emergency awareness to finally compel effective climate change action.
Do not worry. Humanity will eventually reach the point where it can no longer endure the escalating consequences of climate change, and humanity will act. But unfortunately, it may be too late for most of us to survive if humanity does not act soon.
66. Last and maybe worst of all, in 2024, we will come close to or enter the atmospheric carbon 425-450 ppm threshold from our global burning of fossil fuels. As of January 2024, we are at the carbon 421-423 ppm range. Staying below the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold is humanity's last chance to save the future from a massive human die-off. (Click here to read why this horrible mass die-off outcome will likely happen.)
Last thoughts for our 2024 climate change consequence and extreme weather forecast:
1. The consequences of climate change are no longer growing slowly year to year. They are dramatically accelerating in frequency, severity, and size because we are crossing more climate systems and subsystem tipping points, feedbacks, and points of no return. At this point, it would be prudent for every home, business, and community to have a backup energy supply system. You will need a backup energy system because widespread power outages will continue to accelerate as record-breaking extreme weather events occur more frequently and cover larger areas worldwide.
2. Get prepared for what is coming. Start our comprehensive Job One Climate Change Resilience Plan today by clicking here.
3. If you have not yet read our uncensored ten-fact summary of the current climate change condition, we strongly recommend doing so now. It will help you better understand why the above consequences of climate change are happening.
In 2024, where you live in the world will also determine the severity, frequency, and scale of climate change's steadily increasing consequences
In general, other than for microclimates, if you live between the 35th parallel north and the 35th parallel south, your climate change primary and secondary consequences will be considerably worse than in other areas of the world. On the other hand, if you live between the 35th and 45th parallels, either north or south, your climate change consequences will be less severe but still horrible.
If you live between the 45th and 55th parallels, your consequences will be lighter than most other areas but still painful. If you live above the 55th parallel north or south, you will still have many severe consequences. In many ways, these consequences are worse than for those living between the 45th and 55th parallel. You will experience more wildfires, and temperatures will be much higher than ever before; melting permafrost and tundra will cause all kinds of infrastructure problems, and growing food in these areas will be harder.
2. The Biggest Climate Change Tipping Points and Disaster Warning Signs to Monitor in 2024
A. Methane feedback emissions are the single biggest climate change tipping point and warning sign to monitor closely in 2024.
Methane is about 80 times more potent than carbon in the atmosphere in raising global temperature.
Methane emissions are now being released in rapidly increasing quantities from the peat-rich wetlands of the world's mostly tropical wetlands, some from subarctic peatlands and thawing permafrost.
This methane release from tropical wetlands and subarctic peatlands is one of many climate change positive feedback loop situations. (Below is an illustration of a positive feedback loop for melting ice that will help you understand the danger of self-reinforcing and amplifying positive feedback loops in climate change. Notice how feedback loops are circular, where each thing then adds more to the next item on and on.)
Worse yet, few national governments currently have methane tracking regulations, and even fewer have methane reduction laws or programs. This absence of methane tracking and reduction targets is no accident. The fossil fuel industry and its lobbying efforts have been unbelievably successful in hiding the methane extinction climate time bomb from the general public.
Methane is also released from:
a. fossil fuel industry fracking,
b. gasoline and diesel fuel production, and
c. the billions and billions of cattle and other livestock,
We are facing nothing less than a global methane time bomb that could render almost all of humanity extinct within a few decades.
The global methane extinction time bomb is discussed here. It is described as the third extinction accelerating climate tipping point about 2/3 done the page.
The methane graph below soars to levels not seen over the last 10,000 years. (Notice how methane in the atmosphere started to soar at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, about 1870.)
B. The next worst climate issue is the climate feedback loop of the loss of Arctic sea ice for most of the summer.
The earliest published projection for the Arctic Sea to be completely ice-free during the summer is 2035. But, it is possible for there to be an abrupt and catastrophically huge loss of Arctic sea ice any year before 2035.
A huge ice loss or the complete loss of Arctic summer sea ice will drive even larger methane and carbon emissions from subarctic peatlands and thawing permafrost.
When all Arctic sea ice is gone in the summers, many of the Arctic amplifying feedbacks will interact and become inter-reinforcing. As a result, the climate system and life will be pushed orders of magnitude harder than ever before. So, stay tuned and carefully monitor the news for major Arctic summer sea ice losses!
C. The next most critical global climate tipping point is major worldwide rivers drying up or dropping dangerously low.
For example, this happened to the drying Colorado River in the US and the Yangtze River in China. Hundreds of millions of people will be severely affected by water shortages, skyrocketing electric bills, crop failures, etc., as more worldwide rivers dry up in the summers.
This article about the Colorado River crisis explains how millions could be harmed by skyrocketing electric and water bills and much more.
D. There are many other critical climate tipping points and climate feedback loops to watch carefully in the news.
We know the above is terrible news for 2024, but please do not forget the most crucial thing after reading our 2024 forecast.
Our governments and politicians have squandered the last 60 years in inaction or ineffective climate change actions. If they had acted effectively, fixing climate change could have been much easier and more gradual.
If our governments enforced the now-required fossil fuel reductions and came close to the legitimate and radical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets for their nation, we still can avoid many but not all of the worst consequences listed on this page.
But, we only can save much of humanity if we all work together to compel our governments and politicians to act NOW!
And finally, if you are concerned about what you can do about the climate change emergency and protect yourself, click here.
3. How the intensifying climate change consequences will affect your life will not be anything like how most people think it will happen.
The many consequences of climate change will not unfold steadily. In general, climate change consequences usually develop in cyclical sporadic surges. These erratic but cyclical climate change consequence surges will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale, often reaching new record levels.
After reaching new record levels, the climate change consequence will quickly fall back to near-normal or even below-normal levels. After the consequence falls from record levels, it most likely will move into a plateau level (either below or above the previous normal level) before beginning another cycle of increased severity, frequency, and scale, often reaching another new record level and then, once again, falling back down quickly to near-normal levels.
This three-phased cyclical steep up, quick down, and back to the near previous normal pattern will prevent many individuals from seeing climate change's long-term patterns and trends. This climate consequence pattern ignorance will make individuals and businesses vulnerable to the next sporadic intensifying cycle of climate change-driven catastrophes.
In part, the most common climate change-driven extreme weather consequences are defined as heatwaves, heat domes, droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, cyclones, tornados, floods and flooding, rain bombs, wind storms [Derechos], dust storms, wildfire smoke events, unseasonable cold spells, and other abnormal unseasonal weather. But those are only a few of the many climate change consequences we will soon be experiencing at intensifying levels.
If you begin to think about climate change consequences occurring in the pattern of more frequent, more severe, and larger-scaled sporadic "waves" that eventually affect and break down the normal patterns of our lives, you would have a good idea about how climate change consequences will unfold this year and over the following decades. Do not panic or worry if a climate change consequence spikes to a new record, like soaring land or sea temperatures for a week, a month, or even a season. It will eventually drop to near its normal range, but that is only a tiny part of the climate consequence problem.
The real problem, which is invisible to most people, will be that almost all climate change consequences will continue to sporadically increase in severity, frequency, and scale season-by-season, year-by-year, and decade-by-decade:
1. From now until 2025, on average, most climate change consequences will increase in intensity at a significantly accelerated rate.
2. From 2025-2031, on average, the intensity of most climate change consequences will increase dramatically. There will be a dramatic increase in serious global climate catastrophes.
3. From 2031-2050, on average, the intensity of many of the worst climate change consequences will increase near-exponentially. Many serious global climate catastrophes will occur regularly, making it very difficult to stay up with all the waves of damage and losses.
The good news is that by understanding how climate change will unfold in sporadic intensifying waves over the following decades, you will have time to prepare, adapt, and hopefully help change the dangerous direction of the world's accelerating climate change consequences.
Use the above graphic to imagine how climate change consequences will unfold. The green bars represent how new records will be broken over time (left to right). The blue bars represent how, after each new broken climate change consequence record, that consequence will drop back steeply and quickly to plateau at near-normal levels and stay that way for a while. But unfortunately, even the normal plateau levels of many consequences will also continue to increase gradually over time.
The only very scary thing that can change the above-described cyclical, more gradual climate change consequence escalation pattern is humanity crossing major climate tipping points or major climate feedback loops, as we are doing now. Crossing these two things separately or together will cause global climate change consequences to accelerate dramatically and then exponentially.
Please see the graph below to understand what we mean by saying that almost all climate change consequences will first rise dramatically and then exponentially after crossing tipping points. This illustration shows not only the gross failure of your governments to regulate and protect you from the accelerating consequences of climate change caused by burning more and more fossil fuel, but it also illustrates how the acceleration of climate change consequences after tipping points are crossed will directly follow and parallel the steep rise of the three major greenhouse gases polluting our atmosphere.
The graph below shows the three major fossil fuel-related greenhouse gases: carbon (CO2), methane (CH4), and Nitrous Oxide (N2O). The numbers at the bottom of the illustration are dates in history AD. PPB is parts per billion. PPM is parts per million. (The IPCC is the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. AR6 is the IPCC's climate summary report. NOAA is the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.) As you can see below, we are walking into a very dangerous climate change consequence future.
2024 mini summary
2024 will be a year of significantly increased climate-related stress, inconvenience, and financial loss. Daily personal and business routines will be disrupted regularly or significantly delayed more frequently.
These problems will occur because of climate-related extreme weather and its consequences, particularly product or assistance distribution disruptions and crop failures. In 2024, many of us will notice significant food and other commodity price spikes and an increase in product shortages due to climate-related business and distribution disruptions and crop lower yields and failures.
Special Climate Change Financial Loss and Damage Notice
There are time limitations for collecting climate change damage restitution from the perpetrator of climate change, the members of the global fossil fuel cartel.
If you have just experienced a climate change-related extreme weather event involving any heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, hurricanes and cyclones, flooding, rain bombs, wind storms (Derechos), dust storms, wildfire smoke events, unseasonable cold spells, and abnormal unseasonal weather and, you need to begin the process for financial recovery and restitution by reading this page as soon as possible due to time limitations on filing for restitution from harmful acts. This page will connect you to successful law firms handling this specialty.
If you have experienced any damage to your home, business, or farm from climate change-related consequences, you must begin a lawsuit against all related parties ASAP. There are wealthy companies that have either directly caused the climate change emergency and the damages you have experienced or that, as part of their legally required due diligence, should have informed you of the relevant climate change risks.
The number of court cases focused on the global climate change crisis and its consequent damages has doubled since 2015, bringing the total number to over 2,000, according to a report led by European researchers last year. More than two dozen US cities and states are suing big oil, alleging the fossil fuel industry knew for decades about the dangers of burning coal, oil, and gas and actively hid that information from consumers and investors.
4. The Longer-Term Forcasted Consequences of Climate Change and Global Heating for 2025-2031
We will cross a key climate change tipping point in the next 3-8 years (2025-2031). It is the critical atmospheric carbon threshold level of carbon 425-carbon 450 parts per million (ppm).
As we cross this key climate tipping point, it will cause climate change consequences not to continue to gradually increase in frequency, severity, and scale as they are doing now. Instead, climate change consequences will increase radically in frequency, severity, and scale.
When we are pushed beyond the carbon 425-450 ppm climate change tipping point, many climate change consequences will soon begin to increase exponentially, and we will enter into a second and irreversible phase of runaway global heating!
Irreversible climate change means that we will not be able to get the dangerous levels of excess greenhouse gases (like carbon) out of our atmosphere and back down to a normal and human-safe pre-industrial level for hundreds to thousands of years. (As of July 2023, We are currently at the insane atmospheric carbon level of 420 ppm. We will soon enter the generally considered irreversible and second phase of runaway global heating sometime between 2025-2031. This is when we enter into the carbon 425-450 ppm range.)
Because we will enter and cross this critical climate threshold, the years 2025-3031 will have much worse climate change consequences. The climate science for why our climate change consequences will get so much worse from 2025 to 2031 and why this threshold is so critical to the survival of humanity is fully explained on this page.
We strongly recommend reading this page because it will help you understand how we cross over into irreversible runaway global heating. Irreversible runaway global heating is where the average global temperature keeps rising from 2°C to 3°C to 4°C and eventually far beyond any level much of humanity could survive.
To help illustrate how dangerous an exponential increase in climate change consequences is, we have provided the following graph. In the graph below, the red line is an example of a gradual linear, steady, and mostly predictable climate change consequence growth trajectory. (Linear progression equals 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, etc.) The green line below is an example of a sudden, exponential, and highly unpredictable climate change consequence growth trajectory. (Exponential progression equals 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 264, etc.)
An exponential climate change consequence increase corresponds precisely to when we cross the critical atmospheric carbon 425-450 ppm threshold and climate change tipping point. Never forget that, at best, we have only until about 2025-2031 to reduce global fossil fuel use to the survival-critical 2025 target levels, or we will not just lose half of humanity by about mid-century; we will proceed toward near total extinction after mid-century. (We are at about carbon 420 ppm, currently, as shown in the CO2 graph further above.)
Here are the major consequences to watch for over the next 3-8 years, many of which will also be increasing in frequency, severity, and scale:
- There will be far more work disruptions and production stresses. The human capacity to work outside of enclosures and even inside will go down significantly as temperatures accelerate and new records are broken. Not including dealing with further extreme weather consequences, accelerating climate change will cause more and longer costly business, production, and distribution delays and interruptions.
- Worldwide, city, zoning, and planning departments and long-range corporate planners will begin amending their building and other codes and their long-term plans to compensate for or adapt to the accelerating severity of climate change-related consequences. Cities will have to start expanding their sewer systems because of rain bombs, raising highways from flood-prone areas, building expensive sea walls, and moving key electrical, communication, water purification, and sewage treatment plants from high-risk flood or fire areas. They will also have to change their building codes so that homes and buildings can survive the 1,000-year extreme storms and category six hurricanes and tornadoes that will soon be coming regularly.
- For every one degree of further global temperature rise, the atmosphere will take up and hold another 7% of water vapor through the evaporation process. This additional water vapor in the atmosphere does not only mean more rain in certain areas, but it also means that rain bombs will also grow more frequent and intense, with 20-30 inches of rain falling within a day or two common in many areas.
- Food prices will continue to soar globally because of climate consequences, causing crop yields to drop or some crops to fail. Expect to pay a much larger percentage of your total budget to buy the same or lesser amounts of food.
- More climagees (climate refugees) will also migrate from high-risk climate areas to low-risk areas within large nations. By the 2030s, 300 million to 1 billion or more people worldwide will be displaced or migrating because of the many interrelated climate change consequences. (Please note that if the Thwaites Doomsday glacier collapses, the migration numbers will be closer to 1 billion or more.)
- Immigration laws in global-warming-safer countries will become stricter due to surging climate migrations. Many nations will close their borders entirely due to being overwhelmed by climate migrants.
- There will be substantial ongoing economic losses. (Most nations will spend an ever-increasing percentage of their total gross domestic product (GDP) directly or indirectly paying for the many consequences of the global warming emergency in 2024. The cost of living for repair, maintenance, building, or rebuilding in the safer global warming areas will continue to rise significantly. By the early 2030s, the US and many other countries will, directly and indirectly, spend about 5%-10% of their total gross domestic product (GDP) on climate change-related consequences and disasters.
- Global stock and commodity markets, which have grossly underestimated the costs and the multitude of business problems associated with the plethora of interrelated climate change consequences, will begin to experience wild market swings and some collapses in the weaker markets. Because of new climate-related economic shocks to the markets, the probability of an economic recession or depression on national or global levels becomes a significantly higher probability.
- The poor will get much poorer because of continuously escalating climate consequences, disasters, and work interruptions.
- A widespread crime rate increase will be survival driven by increased climate change consequences that will expand a starving, unemployed, and poorer citizen and migrant population. (Imagine hundreds of millions of desperate individuals worldwide trying to stay alive by any means possible! That increasing desperation will drive up crime rates worldwide. In 2024, the US alone will face about 3+ million annual climate migrants seeing legal and illegal entry into the US.)
- More climate scientists, climate researchers, and climate-informed individuals, as well as well-informed ultra-wealthy individuals and corporations, will be discretely migrating to or buying land in the world's remaining global warming-safe areas. This safer land is only about 5% of the world's available landmass.
- More individuals will become doomers or doomsday peppers as they grasp the severity and accelerating difficulties of the climate extinction emergency. A recent survey showed that 50% of Generation Z believes they are doomed.
- Democracies can only exist and grow with an environmental surplus or sufficiency. Because of accelerating climate change-related consequences, democracies worldwide will become less democratic and more authoritarian. This change will happen because climate change will destroy valuable food resources. With more food destroyed or other unusable or unavailable resources, the world's population will become significantly more competitive, more aggressive, and more polarized. There will be more local, regional, and national climate-aggravated national wars and conflicts.
- The fossil fuel industry will not give up trying to make the world's population believe it is safe when it is not. To keep massive profits rolling in from its toxic products, it will start or continue promoting things like clean hydrogen made from methane from fracking, clean coal, clean gasoline, and who knows, they might even find a way to sell us clean green tar sands.
- the fundamental climate normalcy and relative stability that humanity has come to depend upon for its existence for tens of thousands of years are now gone. Severe climate instability and unpredictability are the new climate reality.
- Governments will realize they are not adequately funded to keep repairing damages from climate catastrophes. More governments worldwide will also begin to require their citizens to have at least a two-week supply of food, water, and other needed supplies due to increasing climate-related disasters and growing delays in getting disaster relief and aid to them.
- Climate change is no longer a problem for our grandchildren as it was 60 years ago. It is already a severe problem for generations X, Y, and Z. Runaway global heating is accelerating so fast that even the baby boomers and other retirees will feel its painful and bitter stings as their lives come to a close.
- Sadly, we will not likely come close enough to reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets! (We had to reduce ALL fossil fuel burning in developed countries (including China and India) by about 75% by close to 2025 (and considerably and justly less than that in undeveloped countries. This near-impossible 75% global fossil fuel reduction exists because our governments wasted 60 years of warnings when these reductions could have been easier and gradual.)
- Even more climate-change-driven extreme weather records will be broken.
- The ocean waters of the tropics and middle latitudes will grow warmer. This warming water will cause the plankton to migrate north or south into colder waters. When the plankton moves north or south into colder waters, the fish stocks that depend upon this plankton as the stable bottom for their food change will also move north or south. This fish stock relocation means millions of additional people who rely on fish for protein in the tropics and middle latitudes will starve.
- Food prices will skyrocket to compensate for severe crop losses. Food prices will be considerably more than the typical cost of living increases, and they will become a dominant portion of the budgets of the poor and middle class. Food insecurity will skyrocket, and world hunger and starvation will rise dramatically. Many poor to middle-class people will have to create a local garden and start hunting wildlife to survive skyrocketing food prices and food distribution shortages.
- many more people will suffer and die from 2024-2031 because of climate change-related consequences. The number of people worldwide who will die from the direct and indirect effects of the primary and secondary climate change consequences will increase by radically to around 250-350 million people. (As conditions worsen drastically, climate change-related suicides will also climb steadily in many areas.)
- If the Thwaites Doomsday glacier collapses during this period, the world is looking at a very rapid and completely unmanageable, 2 to 3-foot sea level rise.
- The total number of climate migrants trying to enter only the US legally or illegally until 2031 will be about 28-45+ million individuals. Europe will also experience massive illegal immigration.
- Long-held water rights will begin to be lost to government regulations as sporadic and long-term droughts affect vital areas of nations. Despite previous water rights and laws, governments will be forced to provide water for their citizens and other critical uses.
- Climate change-related crimes will rise significantly during this period. Governments will have to create larger police forces, courts, and jails to handle the rising crime as society becomes more unstable due to accelerating climate change loss and damage. Increasing numbers of climate change-displaced individuals whose resources have been severely depleted by climate change loss and damage will turn to crime to stay alive.
A critical global climate tipping point for irreversible sea level rise to watch over the next decade is the Thwaites glacier in Antarctica. It is often called the Doomsday Glacier. When the Thwaites glacier slides into the ocean, we have crossed a very severe climate catastrophe and climate tipping point.
When Thwaites breaks off, it is your mega-warning sign that the global sea level will quickly rise by 2-3 feet. Pay close attention to Thwaites collapse progress updates.
Current research says that over the next few decades the Thwaites glacier will continue melting adding steadily into sea levels, but the complete collapse of the grit glacier is predicted to be many decades from now.
Once the Thwaites glacier collapses, we will, unfortunately, also cross far worse extinction-accelerating climate tipping points. (Like sea level rising another 7-10 feet within decades after the initial 2-3 foot rise after the Thwaites glacier's initial collapse.)
We know the news is bad, but please do not forget the most important thing after reading our predictions for the next 3-8 years.
Our governments and politicians have squandered the last 60 years in inaction or ineffective climate change actions. If they had acted effectively, fixing climate change could have been much easier and more gradual. If our governments enforced the now-required fossil fuel reductions and came close to the legitimate and radical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets for their nation, we still can avoid many but not all of the worst consequences listed on this page.
But we still can save about half of humanity if we all work together to compel our governments and politicians to act NOW!
If you have any doubts about only having from 2025-2031 to fix climate change before it becomes irreversible and destroys humanity, see this page. And finally, if you are concerned about what you can do about the climate change emergency to protect yourself, click here.
5. The Forcsted Consequences of Climate Change and Global Heating for the Next 2-5 Decades, 2030-2070
If our governments do not enforce the required fossil fuel reductions and come close to the legitimate 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets for their nation, we will not be able to avoid near-total extinction consequences. Near-total extinction means that about 70 percent to as much as 90 percent plus of humanity (about six to seven billion people) will perish in a climate change-driven great global collapse process described in painful phase-by-phase detail here.
Current Earth system computer models (ESMs) project a dramatic slowing (28–42% by 2100) of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC) across a range of climate scenarios, with a complete shutdown of SMOC possible by the year 2300. These newest predictions for ocean current slowdown are decades ahead of previous climate-related forecasts. Maintaining this critical ocean current at the same pre-climate change speed it has held for thousands of years is essential to humanity's future survival. This ocean current slowdown is a massive climate change tipping point; see this article.
- If the Thwaites Doomsday glacier collapses early on during the next 2-5 decades, the world will begin to experience sea levels rising another 7-10 feet within decades beyond the initial and rapid 2-3 foot rise after the Thwaites glacier's initial collapse.)
- The new Biden-era US fossil fuel reductions are still based on grossly inadequate fossil fuel reduction calculations and will provide the uninformed a temporary false hope but eventually an extremely painful and harsh dose of climate reality. Unless the US government adopts the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and immediately leads the rest of the world to enforce these targets, unavoidably, half of humanity will be dead by mid-century!
- Because of increasing public demand and outrage, courts worldwide will finally begin convicting and severely punishing individuals, corporations, and even governments of acts of commission or omission that directly or indirectly caused, contributed to, or enabled the ongoing climate change-related human and biological extinction. These eco-felonies will be labeled as genocidal-enabling crimes against humanity and the future.
- If the world's governments significantly miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, near-total human extinction will occur within the next 50 to 70 years or less. Because humanity will be unable to recover from or adapt to the accelerating frequency, severity, and scale of worsening climate change-related consequences, humanity faces the painful road of escalating economic, political, and social chaos and collapse long before its final members pass away.
- As climate conditions worsen to unsurvivable suffering levels, climate change-related suicides will climb steadily in all areas where any solution or release from accelerating climate consequences appears hopeless.
Critical reading and documentation for our predictions for the next 2-5 decades:
To save much of humanity, here is how we must compel our governments to act.
Click here to see why human extinction should stop at near-total levels but should not go to total extinction.
Click here for a step-by-step, very detailed explanation of the processes of near-total extinction.
Click here for the four extinction-triggering climate tipping points.
For additional information on climate change-driven mass extinction and global collapse processes, please see our three-part series of articles relating to the Club of Rome/MIT study (and four related verification studies), including our updating of them with recent climate change information. See the first article here. It will take you to the other articles.
And finally, if you are concerned about what you can do about the climate change emergency to protect yourself, click here.
Until our governments have the courage to tell their citizens that we have to go through a painful period of enormous individual and collective sacrifice to get close to the 2005 global fossil fuel reduction targets, and they enforce laws to ensure we do, we are doomed to ever-increasing global suffering and death because of the immutable laws of climate physics and climate math.
Maybe a 1/2 trillion dollar single incident climate mega-disaster will finally get the world's governments serious about cutting global fossil fuels usage to, at least, get close to the 2025 global targets.
The 800-pound gorilla in the room, and the big problem today is we are not listening to the ever-louder and more costly destructive feedback that Mother Nature is giving us during this accelerating climate change emergency. Therefore, Mother Nature will do as she has always done. She will turn up her destructive climate consequence feedback to even higher, more painful levels and hopefully get our attention before it is too late.
Mother Nature can be fully trusted to continue to act as she has for the last 10,000 years of human evolution. She will continue to favor the wise, the well-informed, the best prepared, and the most cooperative. And she will punish everyone who does not listen to her repeated and rapidly intensifying climate change consequence feedback.
7. How you can prepare, adapt, survive, and help reduce the consequences of climate change, and get the many benefits humanity will reap if we fix the climate heating emergency
There is a lot of bad news in the predictions above, but we can still do many things to slow down this extinction emergency and live longer, more comfortable lives.
Here are a few of the positive and easy things we can start today:
- Sign the online global warming extinction emergency petition by clicking here.
- Start our comprehensive four-part Job One Climate Change and Global Crises Resilience Plan today by clicking here.
- Donate to keep the Job One for Humanity non-profit climate change think tank speaking uncensored painful truths to power by clicking here.
- Share these 2024 predictions everywhere and with everyone you think they should be shared, particularly with politicians and their staff.
- Become an activist/volunteer and help us sort out this climate nightmare by clicking here.
- Get super motivated by watching the Netflix movie "Don't Look Up" with many big Hollywood stars. It's not so secretly about climate change extinction and what you have just read.
A friend of Job One recently wrote us about how his life is changed in Penticton, British Columbia, Canada. "Up here in BC this year, we have had record heat for a record amount of time, record wildfires, record rainfall, and once-in-a-century flooding. Climate change deniers are just not looking at what is right in front of their eyes."
The many benefits that humanity will reap when we fix the climate change emergency
The above 2024 predictions can be disheartening, but many benefits are available if we work together and come close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Please take the time to read these benefits to counterbalance all of the difficult news above. Then go on to the next section that will help you make the needed changes, preparations, and adaptations.
Click here to read about dozens of these worthwhile benefits. This is the most-read page on our website, with millions of views.
8. Documentation links for our 2024 prediction materials
Reference Topic 1: We have been given far lower incorrect global fossil fuel reduction targets by fossil fuel-compromised "trusted" authorities. Learn why you can't believe the so-called world's leading authority on climate change (the UN IPCC) for legitimate global fossil fuel reduction targets or their consequence predictions and timetables:
Click here to understand the long-term history of the IPCC underestimating the consequences, timeframes, and the needed global fossil fuel reduction targets by as much as 20-40% or more.
Click here to see precisely how the IPCC "cooked the books" and grossly skewed the current IPCC global fossil fuel reduction calculations by including unproven and non-existent "carbon-sucking unicorn" technology into their projections.
Click here to see the eleven key climate change tipping points that have been mostly excluded from the IPCC calculations on how much fossil fuel use we must reduce each year globally.
Click here to see the four key reasons why the IPCC's 26 global climate conferences have failed to produce results or legitimate global fossil fuel reduction targets.
Click here to see the REAL 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and why we must get close to a 75% reduction in total global fossil fuel use (oil, natural gas, coal, etc.) by 2025, not the far, far less net-zero emission levels they have pledged by 2050 or 2040! (In the technical notes at the bottom of the 2025 fossil fuel reduction specification page, you will see each calculation and compensation for the various factors that make up the required correct global fossil fuel reduction numbers.)
To see the many mass mobilization actions our governments must now take to get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and save humanity from near-total extinction, click here.
Reference Topic 2: How can the probability (or even the possibility) of a soon-arriving near-total human extinction be accurate?
Click here to see a detailed "big picture" catastrophic meltdown of our global warming consequences and tipping points. Their interactions with our other 11 major global crises will produce starvation and extinction for much of humanity by mid-century and near-total extinction beginning as soon as 2070.
Click here to see the four major global warming extinction-evoking tipping points and how close we are to crossing them. The first tipping point of carbon 425-450 ppm will explain precisely why climate change consequences will start growing exponentially in about 3-9 years.
Reference Topic 3: What governments must do to save the future
It is time to call for global warming legal accountability, the immediate termination of all global fossil fuel subsidies, and placing a worldwide price for all corporations on their carbon, methane, and other greenhouse gas emissions and pollution.
Click here to learn more about the Fee and Dividend carbon pricing and other critical actions our governments and corporations must immediately take to reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
Reference Topic 4: The deep causes of this whole climate catastrophe mess
To understand the most profound reasons behind our current global warming emergency and our 11 other most dangerous global crises, please get the book Overshoot. In it, you can learn about the concept of the Earth's carrying capacity (the land and sea acreage available and needed for any given population's critical survival needs.)
Reference Topic 5: Miscellaneous
Click here and read our Job One for Humanity policy on the necessary disruption of all false or dangerous climate, global warming, and environmental acts or ideas.
Please continue to educate yourself about these life-critical climate issues by exploring the documentation and analysis found on this website.
Important additional climate change information:
If our governments had enforced fossil fuel reductions needed to avoid major climate disasters, we would not face the consequences that now confront us.
And, if we all work together to compel our governments and politicians to act NOW!, we can still save much of humanity from great suffering, financial loss, and mass extinction.
For answers to all of your remaining questions about climate change and global warming, click here for our new climate change FAQ. It has over one hundred of the most asked questions and answers about climate change.
Special thanks to our board of advisers and our volunteer staff for the creation of this annual update of our climate change predictions. Additional thanks to Peter Carter for his input on the KPMG verification study and thanks to Bruce Nappi, who has provided much of the information regarding the original Club of Rome MIT study and subsequent related studies or updates.
Please share this with others, particularly politicians and their staff members.
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Job One for Humanity supplies research-grounded climate change consequence analysis, timeframes, risk assessment, and solutions to educational, climate, and environmental organizations worldwide without charge. Job One also provide a fee-based climate change analysis and risk assessment, and solutions service to insurance companies, law firms in litigation with the fossil fuel cartel, governments, and businesses affected by climate change emergencies. Because of the fossil fuel cartel's 40 plus year history of bad faith and immoral actions, Job One for Humanity never accepts funding or consulting work from fossil fuel-related industries or businesses.