Climageddon Scenario Phase 3, beginning as soon as 2030-2040
(To see the Climageddon Phase 2, click here.)
We continue crossing more global warming tipping points faster, life becomes unbearable for many areas of the world, and temperatures rise more and faster. Carbon hits 500-550 ppm.
Phase 3 is associated with a measurement of carbon parts per million (ppm) in the range of 500-550 ppm. The eventual temperature range increase commonly associated with Phase 3 will be 2.7°-3.5° Celsius or 4.9°-6.3 ° Fahrenheit. In Phase 3, the cost of a single significant global warming-related disaster may average in the $300-billion to $500-billion range.
The core danger of phase 3 is that once we cross the carbon 500 ppm level, ALL ice and ALL glaciers on Earth will go into complete meltdown! Yes, you read that right!
Crossing the carbon 500 ppm threshold has, in fact, happened repeatedly in Earth's geological history. When it has occurred, the sea level inevitably rose to the 70 meters (230 feet) range. At our current annual carbon ppm emission rates, we will reach this catastrophic carbon 500 ppm range in just 20-25 more years.
If we cross that critical tipping point bypassing the atmospheric carbon level of 500 parts per million (ppm), our average global temperature will eventually soar to 4°C (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit). At 4°C, a large portion of humanity (hundreds of millions to billions) will die of starvation (or die and suffer from increased heat's 19 other related consequences) and, governments and society will collapse in most areas of the world between the 35th parallel north and the 35th parallel south.
Even though it will take many centuries for the seas to rise the full 230 feet, there still will be shocking spurts of sea-level rise within those centuries where the sea level rise up to 10 feet or more in just a few decades as it also has done repeatedly in Earth's past.
Take a moment to visualize the seas eventually but steadily and in spurts rising 230 feet and what this will mean to our coastal cities, our national borders, and the generations that follow us. Take a moment to visualize the ever-increasing massive worldwide crop failures because of the ever-increasing heat and the consequent mass suffering of slow starvation as we approach and pass the carbon 500 ppm level.
Take a moment to let the following really sink in. Anything at or above a 4°Celcius increase in average global temperature would be incompatible with an organized global society and would be beyond adaptation! This temperature and carbon level would also virtually guarantee we will hit carbon 600 ppm. When we cross the carbon 500 ppm tipping point we cross a steeper even more slippery slope and we will quickly reach the carbon 600 ppm extinction level tipping point within another 25-30 years (as soon as 2063-2072 or earlier.)
When carbon 500 ppm happens we will greatly accelerate the process of crossing even more global warming tipping points. As a type of positive feedback loop, this will once again further spike the average global temperature.
More global warming tipping points and points of no return are crossed. The average global temperature continues to rise at an even faster rate. In this phase, the global warming, climate, human, and biological systems consequences (shown further below in the illustration called Global Warming and the Climageddon Scenario) continue to increase in frequency and magnitude, but at a significantly steeper and faster rate.
When crossed, the related multiple global warming tipping points of Phase 3 will also collide back and forth into each other, amplifying and multiplying global warming consequences across climate, human, and biological systems, setting the stage for a cascading chain reaction. (See boiling pot illustration above.) This creates a self-reinforcing cycle (positive feedback loop) as tipping points trigger each other, which once again accelerates the scale, severity, and frequency of global warming consequences.
These cascading and colliding global warming tipping points foster the ideal conditions for Phases 4, 5, and 6 of the Climageddon Scenario and lead to the perfect storm of perfect storms. As Phase 3 unfolds, it will eventually destabilize the global economy because of the ever-rising infrastructure repair and replacement costs and the increasing damage to the world’s other climate, human, and biological systems.
These costs will eventually become unbearable for even the economically strongest nations. In Phase 3, the world economy will likely fall into a deep recession. Politically this will destabilize first the weaker nations, then the higher functioning nations. As the climate, the global economy, and functioning nations destabilize, this cascading consequence effect will lead to chaos in the social systems and the smaller subsystems within our individual lives, businesses, and organizations.
In this phase, unpredictable global warming-related disasters and consequences will continue to increase in magnitude, frequency, and scale, but now at an even faster exponential progression.
Hundreds of millions of people will die (possibly even approaching 1 billion,) and hundreds of millions will become climagees and migrate toward the northernmost countries. Phase 3 should also be seen as the most likely tipping point for the Climageddon Scenario itself when viewed as a whole system and set of interconnected and interrelated systems and processes.
At the current rate, we could be well into Phase 3 in 33 years (about 2050) if the average annual increase in carbon dioxide and methane pollution does not rise any higher than the current average of 3 ppm and we do not cross any more points of no return and tipping points in Phase 2 of the Climageddon Scenario. Unfortunately, it is more likely we will hit the predicted higher average global temperatures sooner (2030-2040) due to crossing many colliding tipping points and higher annual carbon levels in the atmosphere.
In this phase, the percentage probability that we will cross many new global warming tipping points could be as high as 60 to 70%. The climate chaos, risk, and loss will rise exponentially. If it has not already begun in late phase 2, phase 3 will also most likely be the beginning of a global financial depression caused in part by the many global warming economic and political consequences.
The probability of crossing from Phase 3 into Phase 4 once Phase 3 has been entered and maintained for a considerable period of time (5-20 years) is all but inevitable because of the reasons and factors described at the top of this linked page, Is global warming uncontrollable for at least the next 30-50+ years.
How the three extinction-evoking tipping points of carbon 425, 500 and 600 ppm create a condition where global warming management becomes out of humanity's future control
What most people really do not realize about crossing the above three tipping points is that at some soon point after passing them, it will be "too little too late" to make any real difference in avoiding the worst global warming catastrophes at some future point when we finally do begin making the required fossil fuel reductions. This loss of control is because soon after we cross the carbon 425 ppm climate cliff, we begin to trigger other natural climate system tipping points. After we cross carbon 425 ppm, we will trigger much larger naturally increasing methane releases from the tundra, permafrost, and ocean shelves. We will also trigger massive additional natural carbon releases from our deep oceans, trees, and soils.
Eventually, these natural system tipping points will also go into positive feedback loops with each other. These activated positive feedback loops will further intensify the crossing of more natural tipping points.
These positive feedback loops in the climate's natural systems increase the average global temperature. This further triggers increased-heat caused releases of more naturally generated methane and carbon, which once again, further increases average global temperature in an endless cycle. Unfortunately, these increasing temperatures will go on and on until the Earth finally corrects itself hundreds or thousands of years in the future.
Unlike humanity's remaining ability to control its use or not use of fossil fuels, if we cross the previously mentioned natural climate system tipping points, the future is almost exclusively under nature's control! There is little to nothing we can do to keep the other natural sources of carbon and methane from becoming a runaway train of ever-increasing average global temperature.
Humanity's inability to control these large and complex natural systems, tipping points, and positive feedback loops IS the crucial reason why we cannot fail to meet the 2025 global targets. If we do, as soon as 2025, we will let any remaining control of the global warming extinction emergency slip out our hands for many human lifespans.
We do not have until 2050 to make the required global fossil fuel reductions to save ourselves as many governments and fossil fuel companies want you to believe. We also do not have until even 2035 to make the required fossil fuel reductions as many prominent but ill-informed environmental groups want you to believe.
We have only until 2025 to make the required global fossil fuel cuts to prevent going over the carbon 425 ppm climate cliff and losing all meaningful control of our global warming future.
This emergency creates a 600 trillion dollar question hanging in the air. Why aren't the brightest minds in the world's intelligence agencies screaming at their national politicians about this nearly out of control emergency? Why aren't they making our politicians understand this is our last 5-year window of control to keep a super-destructive new global Pandora from getting out of her box?
Why aren't our intelligence agencies (as well as the world's wealthiest individuals and corporations,) shaming our politicians into realizing that they have exposed ALL of humanity to an imminent and irrational extinction risk? Why aren't these recognized as risk and threat levels that should NEVER be endured or justified? (600 trillion dollars plus is the estimate for the total global costs that we will occur if we survive, and if we go over the climate cliff and trigger the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction tipping point and the carbon 600 ppm final-extinction tipping point as discussed above.)
So, let's work together with the appropriate urgency and do what needs to be done to fix this emergency before it is too late.
The above listed natural climate tipping points and positive feedback loops are complicated, but we have simplified their descriptions and interactions on this page. This page will help you understand how the increasing methane releases from the tundra, permafrost, and ocean shelves occur. It will also help you know how massive new carbon releases from our deep oceans, trees, and soils will occur.
The warning signs of phase 3 from 2030-2040
The following listing of positive feedback loops, points of no return, tipping points, consequences, and interactions with our other current global challenges should be considered as good warning signs we are both in phase 3 or moving rapidly through phase 3 into phase 4. Watch for information about these consequences and events occurring in the news.
Particularly watch to see if they're being described as worse than before or as breaking all previous records. Look carefully at what the consequence pattern and trend is moving toward. These are the best objective accelerating warning signs that individuals can see for themselves and that will motivate thoughtful individuals to act appropriately.
Phase 3: The following general global warming consequences will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale from 2030-2040.
The global warming-related consequences that will occur and continue to increase in this phase from continuing to burn fossil fuels at anything close to the rates we are now are similar to the consequences in Phase 3, but there are now four new consequences also growing in importance in blue below:
1. atmospheric heating which increases average global temperature,
2. new disease outbreaks, epidemics, and more COVID-19 like pandemics in areas where they have never been before. (This is due to loss of natural animal habitat, eating more wild animals, additional melting of the permafrost, overcrowding, less resilient health systems, and mass migrations. Because of accelerating global warming consequences, we could be experiencing COVID-19 type pandemics every decade.)
3. shrinking sea ice and ice shelves, glaciers and snowpack,
4. extreme storms of all kinds, (hurricanes, tornadoes, rain bombs, bomb cyclones, etc,)
5. crop failures increasing mass starvation, and soaring food prices,
7. clean drinking water scarcity,
9. fires and wildfires,
11. toxic air pollution,
12. ocean acidification, (Ocean heating and ocean acidification from carbon from global warming will eventually kill off much of the oceans' oxygen-producing plankton. These plankton are responsible for as much as 50% of all oxygen produced on the planet.)
13. loss of biodiversity,
14. jet stream disruption, (disruption of seasonal weather patterns,)
15. mass human migrations,
16 animal and insect migrations,
17. Tsunamis and earthquakes,
18. economic losses. (In this phase, most nations will spend 3-7 percent of their total gross domestic product (GDP) directly or indirectly paying for the consequences of the global warming emergency.)
19. forests that were a major stabilizing force absorbing carbon become neutral in their carbon absorption and stop taking carbon from the atmosphere. (Soon in later phases the forests will begin to release their vast stores of carbon pushing temperatures higher even faster.)
20. accelerating reef collapses around the world, (which negatively affects fish spawning and feeding areas, which causes more collapse of global fish populations, which causes more human starvation around the world. This is because fish protein is a major source of food for the world's poorer populations.)
21. decreased albedo from reduced snow cover increasing earth's heat,
22. soils overheating and instead of absorbing atmospheric carbon, they begin releasing carbon back into the atmosphere increasing heat,
23. oceans overheating and instead of absorbing atmospheric carbon, they begin releasing it (which also further increases heat, all of which results in more heat speeding up the whole process of more positive feedback loops, crossing more points of no return and tipping points.)
In the above consequence list, faster-shrinking sea ice will cause any massive ice shelves (that are held in place by the surrounding sea ice,) to slide quickly off the land they sit on and into the sea raising sea level far faster than we are able to adapt to. At this point, the sea ice surrounding many of the largest ice shelves in the world is melting at unprecedented rates. With each new Climageddon phase and as temperature increases, the likelihood of massive ice shelves sinking into the sea rapidly raising our sea levels far more and far faster than we're ready for becomes more likely.
In one way or another, directly or indirectly as the above list of heat-driven global warming consequences increase in severity, frequency, and scale the following things occur:
1. the human capacity to work or produce as before goes down,
2. repair costs and losses go up,
3. less food is available from crops and fish stocks,
4. food prices rise,
5. more people starve,
6. there are more migrations of starving people,
7. there are more conflicts and wars, and
8. more economies and nations collapse, and
9. deaths continue to increase.
Phase 3: From 2030-2040, there will be continual critical reactions of global warming consequences with our other global challenges, which will cross-intensify and worsen many of the global warming consequences of this phase as well as our other global challenges themselves.
The other 12 non-global warming challenges to our global society that will both interact with each other and likely continue to worsen in this 3rd phase of the Climageddon Scenario are the same as the 12 you read in phase 1 on this page. (See this page if you need to refresh yourself for what is on this long future nightmare list.)
What happens when you mix everything above together in Phase 3?
When you are thinking about the interacting collective and individual impacts of the above phase 3, you must also consider their expanding direct and indirect impacts upon human social, economic and political systems and the tipping points within those unique human systems. As we continue to experience more of the multiplying, amplifying and magnifying consequences mentioned above that will also increase in frequency, severity, and scale, we will also begin to experience even more serious and random human system crashes and collapses within our social, economic and political human systems. This will then eventually push many more of these human systems ever closer toward or over their own internal tipping points.
Eventually, most all weaker countries will collapse under the ever-increasing weight of these rising internal economic political and social climate-related catastrophes and resource conflicts.
What also will begin to happen as we leave Phase 3 and enter Phase 4 is that even more nuclear reactors, toxic chemical manufacturing plants and any chemical or biological weapons stockpiles in the weakest nations will become even more vulnerable to accidental meltdown, release or theft as the governments of weakest and weaker nations lose any remaining available resources or manpower to keep these critical sites secure and operational.
In the later Phase 3, hundreds of millions of people will become climagees and migrate toward the safest remaining areas. Hundreds of millions worldwide will die of starvation-related conflicts and social chaos.
Special dangers which will present themselves between phase 3 and phase 4
As if the above was not bad enough, there are other hyper-critical factors that need to be carefully considered and planned for in the nightmare post-climate cliff carbon 500 and carbon 600 ppm scenario that we are now all facing. As if the proceeding was not enough to convince any rational individual that they need to do everything they can to get their governments to do everything described in Part 3 of the Job One Plan to slow and lessen global warming so they can survive, there is still more very bad news.
As global warming worsens to its near-extinction carbon 500 ppm levels, we will also have to deal with the following humanity and civilization-ending realities:
a. Nuclear reactors in global warming unsafe zones between the 45th parallel north and south (about 400,) will no longer be able to be kept secure or maintained by stable or functioning governments as global warming worsens and many of these governments enter social chaos and fail. If these nuclear reactors go critical and meltdown, it will not matter where you migrate to in the world.
No location or bunker will be safe from the massive continuous fallout and radiation from scores if not hundreds of reactors that will eventually go critical and spew radiation for centuries! The same holds true for all biological and chemical weapons or toxic chemicals stored in any areas with collapsing or collapsed governments. Once those areas are generally abandoned and are lawless and in chaos and no longer properly managed by functioning governments, these world-ending toxic commodities will slowly leak out or be seized and poison and kill areas far beyond their original locations.
b. Critical food production above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south will be extremely limited because the general soil quality and then lower seasonal sunlight amounts will be grossly inadequate using traditional or existing methods to grow enough food for the desperate billions of climagees migrating to these areas. Somehow the governments of the world will have to cooperate to justly and carefully limit how many people can occupy the very limited global warming safer zones and still be fed adequately.
Trying to carefully limit the number of people who can inhabit the few global warming safer zones by force or special lottery will of itself create unimaginable mass social chaos, panic, and conflict that will keep those living in the global warming safer zones under continuous threat and uncertainty. Anyone living in those very limited safer zones will only have temporary relief.
c. On the other hand, if you do not allow enough diverse individuals from the global warming unsafe zones to migrate, there will not be enough human genetic diversity to survive the waves of new diseases that will burn through the far north or far south because of thousands of-year-old unknown and known pathogens released from the melting permafrost (which humanity has never seen before and has no immunity.) Additionally, these global warming safer zones will also be under threat from new pathogens or existing pathogens that are always mutating. Only adequate genetic diversity will be our best guarantee that at least someone will survive.
d. and finally, in order for any of us to survive in any way close to what we are used to, the world’s key infrastructure for a modern functioning civilization to continue must be moved within the next 5-15 years using all of the relative political, economic and social stability which still remains. This means we need to begin immediately moving key industries like medical, pharmaceutical, manufacturing, etc. as well as key and adequate administrative, policing, and other social structures into the global warming safe zones above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south.
At some point, even the most optimistic person will recognize nothing will save them from this global warming meltdown monster if we don't get fossil fuel usage under control by 2025. From that total of everything they (and we,) are facing, they will also realize that we either cooperate and work together or we all die together.
"We are no longer in just an emergency to prevent global warming from getting worse. We are in an all-out war to prevent mass human extinction and economic, social, and political chaos within our lifetimes. As long as we keep thinking about gradually managing the vague threat of "climate change," we are continuing to focus on the wrong target and we will most likely fail in preventing our own extinction. We and our governments need to shift our total focus to the sole goal of preventing global warming extinction within our lifetimes. This is exactly what we are now facing within the lifetimes of most people currently alive today." Lawrence Wollersheim
Risk and threat ratings
Phase 3 Torino impact rating:
Torino rating 10: The threat is highly certain for unprecedented localized regional, national, and international destruction. The threat is capable of causing global climatic catastrophes that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it. Attention by the public and both national and international governments to contingency planning is mandatory if the event is less than 3 decades away. Click here and go to the section of the page called Action Plan Section 2 near the bottom of the page to learn what the governments must start doing immediately.
Phase 3 US military DEFCON rating:
DEFCON 2: High readiness; armed forces ready to deploy in six hours.
Phase 3 US Homeland Security risk rating:
Congratulations! You have finished Phase 3 of the Climageddon Scenario. There are 3 more well-illustrated and soon-arriving Climageddon Scenario phases to review where, unfortunately, things get even worse as global warming worsens.
Because the Climageddon Scenario is already unfolding, please do not forget that if we do reach the last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by plus or minus 5 percent, we will avoid the worst consequences of the Climageddon Scenario and mass extinction! Life over the millennia always seems to find a way to solve its previous mass extinction challenges!
To help prevent the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario from unfolding there exists a deadline-prioritized, effective action plan to ensure we do not trigger the later mass extinction phases. Click here for a brief overview of this plan. Once we get the greatest disruptor and threat multiplier of the 21st-century (global warming,) under control by building truly sustainable lifestyles and livelihoods, we can then move on to some of the deeper social and economic causes of global warming by focusing more on the other non-global warming global challenges mentioned on this page.