"You cannot be called an alarmist if there really is something to be alarmed about." Unknown
Welcome to a not-so-happy summary of the current global warming extinction emergency which we all now face within our lifetimes. While reading all of these materials, keep calm and keep in mind that if we act wisely, together and with urgency, there is still a remaining window of opportunity (up until 2025.) in which we can slow down the global warming extinction emergency enough, so that far more of us will be able to survive it.
Why 35 years of climate change and global warming and fossil fuel reduction failure?
In spite of almost 35 years of warnings by credible scientists and the work of the environmental movement, plus a preponderance of collaborating scientific evidence, as well as numerous conferences and previous treaties, the carbon dioxide and methane pollution of our atmosphere, has not stopped, slowed, or even leveled off. On the contrary, it is getting worse faster than ever before!
As you can see, we are not doing very well.
Leading climate scientists like James Hansen, who originally warned us about the global warming danger 35 years ago, say we would remain safe if carbon in the atmosphere did not go over 350 parts per million (ppm). As of August of 2020 we are at about carbon 414 ppm and increasing at about 3 ppm per year in a near exponential progression.
When you combine the heating effect of carbon with the other greenhouse gases, it is called the CO2e ppm rating. CO2e, or carbon dioxide equivalent. CO2e is a standard unit for measuring all greenhouse gases in terms of the amount of warming they create compared to CO2.carbon footprints.
When you include atmospheric methane and the other greenhouse gas pollutants, our current adjusted CO2e rating has already risen to the shocking level of 430 ppmv of CO2e! Worse yet, we will be at carbon 450 ppm in 10 years or less when we include atmospheric methane in our calculations.
To put this in a time-lapse perspective, from 1850 to about 1950, the increase in carbon pollution was steady at about 1 ppm per year. From 1950 to 2000, the increase rose to 2 ppm per year, and now in its current exponential curve, it is at about 3 ppm per year and rising rapidly toward 3-4 ppm per year. If carbon continues to rise in this exponential, nonlinear way, virtually unchecked by our ineffective previous actions, the increase could easily reach a level of 4-5 ppm per year by 2025.
As you can see below, carbon has been rising since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in England.
Image via Stephen Stoft at zfacts.com
According to James Hansen, a carbon 450 ppm level would eventually correspond and develop into an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century and the end of human civilization as we’ve come to know it. Based on carbon ppm levels already in the system and reaching the 450 mark, this also means at least another 2.7° Celsius (4.9° Fahrenheit) global temperature increase beyond where we are now is the eventual and inescapable future reality.
This 2.7° Celsius would also be the most realistic minimal temperature increase to project as part of any future planning over the next 10-30 years. Bear in mind that even this scenario applies only if everything goes perfectly and we cross no additional global warming tipping points.
Unfortunately, it is already certain that because of our ongoing denial and delay in addressing escalating global warming, atmospheric carbon in parts per million will most likely continue to rapidly rise beyond the carbon 450-550 ppm total, which translates to a 3° to 4° plus Celsius increase (5.4° to 7.2°+ Fahrenheit) up to as much as a 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) increase in average global temperature. (A 4° Celsius increase [7.2° Fahrenheit] in average global temperature would become “Hell on earth” as Mark Lynas, author of Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, has stated. Additionally, anything at or above a 4°Celcius increase in average global temperature would be incompatible with an organized global society and would be beyond adaptation!)
Hansen’s projections for “ending human civilization as we know it” is not the same as mass human extinction (most of humanity dying by mid-century,) as we approach carbon 500 ppm and carbon 600 ppm which turn into the 5° or 6° Celsius (10.8° to about 12° Fahrenheit) temperature levels. In Hansen’s 6° Celsius rise coming from eventually crossing the carbon 450 ppm mark, what would be considered normal, stable, comfortable, or predictable daily life in developed nations will become severely impaired and dysfunctional, to say the least.
In undeveloped nations, there will be a high and consistent level of chaos and breakdown that will rapidly render most of these nations politically and economically unsustainable. As it is already occurring, the chaos of existing less-developed nations destabilized by factors such as war and the global warming extinction emergency will then affect the more developed and stable nations far beyond just the current massive migrations of climagees escaping the suffering and heat.
In spite of all the media PR, 21 United Nations climate conferences, endless warnings from credible scientists over the last 30 + years, and national reduction pledges and treaties, things are worsening in a nearly exponential progression (2,4,8,16, etc.). There is no way to deny we are not only losing the escalating global warming battle, and we are losing it at a progressively faster rate!
Instead of enacting the needed changes when they were far easier, more gradual, and far less costly, we must now take radical, painful, and costly tough medicine if we are going to save the future. The changes that would have been merely inconvenient 35 years ago will now become nearly unbearable.
We are not receiving adequate accurate facts about how bad global warming is now, or how bad it will REALLY become. The heavily lobbied global media decline to alarm us to the real dangers in order to allow the fossil fuel industry to continue business as usual. Click here to see how bad we are actually doing in reducing fossil fuel use globally.
Current atmospheric fossil fuel burning-related carbon ppm values are now at 414. This is higher than at any other time in the last 1 million years (possibly higher than at any time in the last 25 million years). This new carbon pollution record represents an increase of 85 carbon ppm in the 55 years since David Keeling began making his revolutionary atmospheric carbon pollution measurements at Mauna Loa. (See graphs in this and previous chapters).
Carbon pollution accumulating in the atmosphere has been increasing even faster over the last few decades. It is now nearly certain that if we refuse to take immediate, effective measures to resolve global warming, future increases will happen at even faster rates.
Global average temperatures have the potential to rise far faster than what we normally experience. For example, about 9600 BC, in the Boreal climatic phase, global temperatures rose 7° C (12.6° F) in less than a decade, pushing the ice sheets into rapid collapse and sending sea levels soaring.
Our 35-year inability to control the climate change and global warming emergency is due in part to:
The lack of national and international verifiable and enforceable international laws that would make continued large-scale carbon and methane pollution of the atmosphere a strongly punished activity or crime.
The physical time lags in developing and deploying the infrastructure needed for the new green energy technologies. As we are progressing now, it will likely take another 100 plus years.
But, if everyone on the planet and every government simultaneously agreed to scale up green energy generation immediately and there were no budgetary or resource restrictions in completing this life-critical project, it would still take many many decades to put that infrastructure in place.
If escalating global warming and its consequent climate destabilization proceed to the levels currently being predicted, it will eventually cost the global society hundreds of trillions of dollars in crisis recovery, as well as soaring insurance rates, massive real estate losses and depreciation, and massive coastal and other infrastructure losses, in addition to the vast amount of human suffering and death.
Right now, most nations are struggling with debt and their economies are in trouble with anemic annual growth. How will many of these nations, particularly the weakest ones, remain politically or financially viable, stable, or even continue to exist if another 5% or more of their total GDP (the Stern Review) is drained off each year into the continually escalating costs of global warming-caused climate destabilization? Current estimates from a book called Climate Shock project all global warming consequences will cost 10 percent and maybe far more of the world’s total GDP by 2100.
The global warming extinction emergency is already here! Its superstorms, flooding, seasonal disruptions, wildfires, heat waves, migrating insect infestations, and droughts will continue increasing in magnitude and frequency. According to a recent analysis from scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), "[t]he worst-case projections for global warming may be the most likely.”
The next battle now lies in keeping global warming from rising to an extinction-level event where human-caused carbon dioxide and methane levels in the atmosphere push the global temperature increases to 4°-6° Celsius (7.2°-10.8° Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels and beyond. How we can survive and fix this is found in the new Job One for Humanity Plan found on this website.
The following Illustration is From the new Climageddon book:
It is not just a climate change and global warming emergency. It really is a climate change and global warming extinction emergency!
Now that you read the global warming emergency details provided above, it is critical to first read this critical new article which fully explains:
1. why we are already in an undeclared state of a global warming extinction emergency and,
2. what we must now do.
Once you have read the above article, please click here for the good news of what you can do about this climate change and global warming extinction emergency!
Next, please click here first to read about why mass die-offs and a climageddon-type global warming mass extinction event killing most of humanity by mid-century are a near-certainty within the next 30-50 years, but only if we miss the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Click here for the full timeline and consequence details for this climageddon extinction scenario and countdown.
The nine most important facts to know about global warming and climate change based on today's most current science
The nine facts below are the facts that most other environmental groups are afraid to tell you. Once you understand them, you will be better prepared for what is happening now and what is coming.
We are not asking you to accept these disruptive facts blindly. We have provided links to their scientific documentation and analysis (found on this page or website.)
At the end of this article, you will find a link to a comprehensive four-part plan for what you can do to help manage global warming.
To counterbalance these disruptive facts, in this article, you will also find a link to the many surprising benefits that you will experience as we work toward resolving this great challenge, opportunity, and evolutionary adventure.
Because psychologists say it is better to get the bad news out of the way before the good news, here are the nine essential facts you should know about today's climate change and global warming emergency:
Fact 1: Our governments were not prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic and they are even more unprepared for the accelerating global warming emergency. Our governments have ignored 35 years of global warming warnings by our best climate scientists, just like many of them have ignored the early advice of the world's best pandemic scientists.
Fact 2: We have reached a global warming level where only a government-driven worldwide mass mobilization (similar to the mass mobilization that occurred before World War II) can save us in time! It is far too late for individual actions alone to achieve the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reductions needed to save us from global catastrophe and mass extinction. (Part 3 of our Job One for Humanity Plan will show you how our governments can complete the required mass mobilization and required minimal levels of fossil fuel reductions to save us from catastrophe.)
Fact 3: Our governments are not telling us the truth about how bad global warming is going to get. Many catastrophic and even some extinction-level consequences are going to arrive far sooner than we have been told.
Because of our decades of inaction, many catastrophic and some mass extinction level consequences are already unavoidable!
Fact 4: If we keep going the way we are now, our governments are less than five years away (2025) from missing our last chance to reduce global fossil fuel use to the required levels to control our futures and to prevent the extinction of much of humanity by mid-century.
The minimum 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets will require almost us to reduce ALL global fossil use by 75%. This 75% global fossil fuel reduction target means that all developed countries (including China and India,) must reduce all auto, train, shipping, airline, industrial, agricultural, and home uses of all fossil fuels by 75% to meet these 2025 targets! (Most developing countries have considerably smaller 2025 reduction targets because of their previous historic far lower levels of fossil fuels and climate justice and fairness.
(Click here for all of the critical global 2025 fossil fuel reduction target details.)
Fact 5: Missing this 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets means that global warming is effectively removed from our meaningful control for centuries and that we also will not be able to prevent the most catastrophic of the worst global warming consequences from occurring.
If we fail to meet the 2025 targets, the immutable laws of climate physics take over! Because of heat, drought, and rain bombs, we also will not be able to prevent the widespread collapse of global agriculture. If we allow the widespread collapse of global agriculture, the human population will quickly starve and collapse to a fraction of what it is today.
As warned by the UN Secretary-General and the UN Climate Secretariat, if we miss these 2025 targets, the even worse runaway global warming consequence will eventually render our beautiful Planet Earth uninhabitable! (Runaway global warming means that global warming is on a runaway course and will continue to get warmer and warmer due to crossed internal tipping points of and by itself.)
Runaway global warming will only happen if we are not able to stop ourselves from crossing the four most critical extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points. If we do not make the 2025 global targets, we will not be able to stop ourselves from crossing the four most critical extinction-accelerating tipping points.
(Click here to read about how and when these four critical extinction-evoking tipping points will unfold during your lifetime.)
Fact 6: Despite horrible odds of reaching the critical 2025 targets, it is still technically possible to reach them as long as we immediately execute an all-out, worldwide government-driven mass mobilization. If our governments get us close to the 2025 targets, we can at least, slow down (but not stop) the coming mass extinction event would kill off much of humanity as soon as 2050. This unfolding mass extinction event would also, unfortunately, trigger an expanding collapse of the world economy, many nations, and much of our functioning civilization.
Because of these unthinkable consequences, we must do everything we can to meet the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and slow down the ongoing global warming extinction process.
(Click here to read how challenging it will be to reach the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets.)
Fact 7: Only by getting close to the global 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets and successfully managing most of these other 11 non-global warming global challenges, will we give ourselves the needed time and resources to prevent a far worse total human extinction event from occurring around 2070 to 2100.
(If you think that either the mass or total extinction global warming threats are overstated, see this recent scientific summary by respected climate scientists.)
Fact 8: We are currently horribly behind where we need to be in reducing global fossil fuel use sufficiently to get even close to the 2025 global warming reduction targets. And, we are also failing miserably to manage most of these other 11 critical global challenges that are interacting with accelerating global warming to our detriment.
Consequently, this is the time for wise individuals and businesses to create their own Plan B survival backup plans. It is no longer reasonable to rely solely upon our poorly-performing and limited-resourced governments to save your family or business from the accelerating global warming emergency. (Plan B is simply a global warming emergency preparation, adaptation, and survival plan that might include migration or relocation to global warming safer areas.)
With your Plan B in place, you can still "keep working to help slow down global warming for the best possible global warming outcomes" after you have prepared your family and business for the soon-arriving worst possible outcomes.
By having a personalized Plan B at hand, you will be able to survive longer and more comfortably. And, if we can get through this global warming extinction emergency, you will have also preserved your possibility and oppertunity to once again thrive!
(Click here to see the many best possible outcomes if our governments act in time.)
Fact 9: Depending on your location, you should still have enough time to prepare for and adapt to the global warming consequences that have already become unavoidable. Additionally, at this perilous time, it is wholly appropriate to have an intelligent and mobilizing fear because of the known coming consequences of global warming.
While pure panic generally paralyzes, there are also positive reasons for why the emotion of fear exists. Where positive fear exists, and it is about REAL threats to your survival The right use of fear mobilizes the wise!
Here are the most critical global warming deadlines to remember to keep a wise and mobilizing fear useful and in the proper perspective:
a. The 5-year deadline: At this time, it is appropriate to admit it is all but impossible for us to reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. But, we still can slow down the extinction of much of humanity by mid-century and still maintain some level of control of our global warming future to prevent total extinction. To do this we must at least, get very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
b. The 7-year deadline: (This assumes we will miss the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets.) From 2020 to 2027 global warming consequences will steadily get worse in an accelerating linear progression. If you have prepared, adapted, and are in a global warming safer location before 2027 (Plan B), relative stability and security for your family and business are probable until around 2030 to 2040 depending upon your location.
(See this page, which discusses how to prepare and the safest and least safe places to ride out the global warming extinction emergency.)
c. The 10-15 year deadline: (This assumes we will miss the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets.) After 2030-2035 many additional climate, human, ecological, political, and financial tipping points will be crossed due to both global warming and these other critical global challenges getting worse. The stability and security of even the safest and best prepared global warming safer locations will lessen and become increasingly uncertain.
d. The 10-20 year deadline: (This assumes we will miss the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets.) Beginning around 2030, the frequency, severity, and size of 20 worst global warming consequences will move from an accelerating linear progression into an exponential progression. Stability and security for even the safest and best prepared global warming safer locations will become far more difficult and dangerous.
e. The 30-year deadline: (This assumes we will miss the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets.) As soon as by mid-century mass extinction for much of humanity is unavoidable. From 2030-2050 will be the most difficult period to survive for much to most of humanity. Generally, things will be only slightly better in global warming safer locations.
f. The 50-year deadline: (This assumes we will miss the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets.) We will face the worst consequences of runaway global warming and we will be heading toward the beginning of runaway greenhouse gas effect which ripped the atmosphere off Venus. Because of this escalating runaway global warming reality, humanity will likely face a total extinction event (what we describe as the Climageddon Scenario,) beginning as soon as 2070-2100.
There are many people who believe (or would like to believe,) that geoengineering, carbon capture, or some other new miracle technology will ride in like a knight on a white horse just in time to save humanity from the natural climate consequences of its decisions, actions, inactions, and mistakes.
(Click here to read about why this fairy tale carbon capture technology is not going to happen or will be "too little too late" to save us.)
Summary of the Nine Facts:
Because of many decades of grossly insufficient global warming reduction actions by our governments, we no longer can avoid mass extinction occurring for much of humanity by mid-century.
Therefore, because our governments have already failed to prevent the coming mass extinction it is now critical for our governments to finally act together and immediately to prevent total extinction later in the second half of this century.
To save humanity our governments must immediately mass mobilize using these correct actions to radically slow down global warming and get the world as close as possible to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, or no one will survive!
(Our governments must also begin enacting their designated Plan B worst-case strategies so that some of humanity and our civilization survive.)
Unfortunately, to prevent the needed painful changes and public panic, our governments and politicians will adamantly deny the above facts. Too many of our governments and environmental groups have been severely compromised by the money and influence of fossil fuel producing nations and the fossil fuel-related industries and their lobbyists.
To keep the public calm and ignorant of the extreme dangers, our governments will continue to regularly issue false and misleading global warming reduction progress reports. Our governments will also seek to distract us with false hope solutions like illusionary carbon capture and geoengineering schemes.
Despite the numerous and immense efforts to prevent widespread public access to the facts on this page, we must go where the science and the facts lead us. We must continue to speak truth to power no matter how uncomfortable those facts might be. Otherwise, we would not properly prepare for and adapt to the existing and constantly changing conditions so at least some of humanity can go on to survive and thrive.
(If you still have doubts about what we are saying above, the links in the above will take you to the exact science and analysis needed to verify each of the above statements.)
Please share this with everyone you can!
The essential positive perspective on the above disruptive global warming and climate change news
Despite the many types of challenging global warming consequences and past fossil fuel reduction mistakes that we now face, we can still learn from their feedback, and we can adapt and evolve to make life as good and as happy as is possible. No matter how severe the coming global warming consequences might become, if we wisely play the remaining cards that we have been dealt, we can still achieve the best remaining possible outcomes.
We can make a significant difference in reducing global fossil fuel use to stabilize and save some parts of humanity's future. We can execute a comprehensive fossil fuel reduction and survival plan like the Job One for Humanity Plan.
We can still maintain the perseverance needed to succeed in this monumental task by regularly reviewing the many benefits which will unfold for us as we work successfully on this project together. (Click here to check those benefits. This is the most read page on our website.)
We can persevere through this temporary time of emergency. To do so, we need to remember that our greatest challenges are also the seeds of our greatest opportunities. We can never forget that we are engaged in nothing less than the most critical and meaningful evolutionary opportunity, challenge, and adventure in human history!
It is our last opportunity to slow down the accelerating mass human extinction threat by getting close to these 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
Only by reaching these targets will we be able to remove the even worse threat of total extinction.
Get started today on the Job One for Humanity Survive and Thrive plan today. Help save and salvage as much of humanity and our beautiful civilization as is possible.
If you are either curious, or you need some extra motivation to get into action, we then strongly recommend also reading this popular page. It describes the above major consequences unfolding in a detailed step-by-step process as well as the complete scope and breadth of the extinction emergency that we are all now facing on many consequence fronts.
A quick summary of the above
There is just one immediate fact to know and focus upon concerning our climate change and global warming future. If we get this one right, most of the other problems will take care of themselves.
If our world governments do not immediately execute a mass mobilization of the necessary resources to reduce global fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025, most of humanity will be dead by mid-century.
That is all you really need to remember and focus on. If you do not believe what we have said above is accurate, click here to see precisely how this global warming nightmare will unfold.
There is also more information about the escalating global warming emergency in the new Climageddon book. In this new book, you will find out why anything at or above a 4°Celcius increase in average global temperature would be incompatible with an organized global society and would be beyond our ability to adapt to it!
Get your copy now! Your book purchase helps support the social benefit mission of Job One for Humanity to end global warming. Click here for more detailed information about this new.
(Special Update of 11.1.2020: It is now a virtual mathematical and political impossibility to reach (or even come close) to our last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. The main consequence of this new reality is that all we can do now is slow down the mass extinction process, but not avoid it.
Although we can no longer prevent much of humanity from going extinct by mid-century, we still have some time left to prevent total extinction. Because of this harsh new reality, we have appropriately modified and updated the Job One for Humanity global warming action plan. Click here to see this updated plan.
Click here to see all of the reasons why a mass extinction event by mid-century is mathematically, economically, and politically unavoidable.)