Climageddon Scenario Phase 5 beginning as soon as 2050-2070
(To see the Climageddon Scenario Phase 4, click here.)
Temperatures rise more and faster. Full or near-complete extinction looms for the human race. We hit carbon 600-750+ ppm
The longer Phase 4 continues, the more likely we are to enter Phase 5. In Phase 5, more global warming tipping points and points of no return are crossed in all of the systems previously mentioned. These additional crossed tipping points will further accelerate the colliding into other global warming, climate, human and biological systems, and subsystems, which will trigger more of their tipping points as well. As this meltdown continues, almost all previously mentioned systems will be thrown into utter chaos.
In Phase 5, the average global temperature continues to rise at an even faster rate than previous phases and in a fully exponential manner. In this phase, the global warming consequences continue to increase in frequency and magnitude, also in a fully exponential manner.
This is what is called near-extinction or extinction-level climate destabilization. It is the near to last phase of the Climageddon Scenario.
Environmental collapse, failing economies, and failing nations will begin to collectively collide into each other and into collapsing biological systems, causing unpredictable negative consequences due to the unseen interconnections and interdependencies between climate, human, and biological systems interacting within today's complex and globalized societies. This perfect storm of perfect storms phase has the potential to wreak havoc upon humanity at a level never seen before in human history.
This extinction-level climate destabilization is also defined as the projected potential and eventual extinction of approximately half or more of the biological species on earth and most, if not all, of humanity. Extinction-level climate destabilization will cost billions of lives, possibly the survival of the human species itself.
This extinction-level climate destabilization is associated with the measurement of carbon parts per million in the atmosphere in the range of 600-750+ ppm. The eventual average global temperature increase range associated with Phase 5 is 5°-6° Celsius or about 9°-10.8° Fahrenheit. (This 5°-6° Celsius range is historically significant because scientists have estimated the previous global PETM mass extinction event occurred when the world was only about 5-6° Celsius warmer than it is today.)
There also is a real possibility that extinction-level climate destabilization may never correct or re-balance itself to some new climate equilibrium level, but simply move to Phase 6. And even if the climate were able to correct or re-balance itself, it could take thousands or hundreds of thousands of years. In this phase, the cost of such cascading chains of global warming-related disasters and consequences across all of the interconnected systems is likely to be in the $200-$600 trillion range.
At the current rate, we could be in Phase 5 in less than 83 years (about 2099) if the carbon 3 ppm annual increase does not go up any higher and we do not cross additional tipping points in Phase 2, 3, or 4 of the Climageddon Scenario. Once again, it is far more likely we will hit the predicted higher average global temperatures much sooner (2050-2070) due to crossing many global warming tipping points and the higher average annual carbon ppm levels going into the atmosphere from burning more fossil fuels. In Phase 5, there may be a possibility that several hundred million humans will still be able to survive in the poorer growing soils of the northernmost and southernmost countries.
When all or most of the previously mentioned five phases have occurred, it is the second last step to the end game of the Climageddon Scenario. The probability of entering Phase 6 once Phase 5 has been entered and maintained for a considerable length of time (25-100+ years) is unknown. Currently, there is not enough research to know at what level of carbon ppm we will enter into Phase 6. It could be somewhere near carbon 750 -800 ppm, or it could occur considerably above that level.
The warning signs of phase 5 from 2050-2070
The following listing of positive feedback loops, points of no return, tipping points, consequences, and interactions with our other current global challenges should be considered as good warning signs we are both in phase 5 or moving rapidly through phase 5 into phase 6. Watch for information about these consequences and events occurring in the news.
Particularly watch to see if they're being described as worse than before or as breaking all previous records. Look carefully at what the consequence pattern and trend is moving toward. These are the best objective accelerating warning signs that individuals can see for themselves and that will motivate thoughtful individuals to act appropriately.
Phase 5: The following general global warming consequences will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale from 2050-2070.
The global warming-related consequences that will occur and continue to increase in this phase from continuing to burn fossil fuels at anything close to the rates we are now are the same as in phase 4:
1. atmospheric heating which increases average global temperature,
2. new disease outbreaks, epidemics, and more COVID-19 like pandemics in areas where they have never been before. (This is due to loss of natural animal habitat, eating more wild animals, additional melting of the permafrost, overcrowding, less resilient health systems, and mass migrations. Because of accelerating global warming consequences, we could be experiencing COVID-19 type pandemics every decade.)
3. shrinking sea ice and ice shelves, glaciers and snowpack,
4. crop failures increasing mass starvation, and soaring food prices,
5. extreme storms of all kinds, (hurricanes, tornadoes, rain bombs, bomb cyclones, etc,)
7. clean drinking water scarcity,
9. fires and wildfires,
11. toxic air pollution,
12. ocean acidification, (Ocean heating and ocean acidification from carbon from global warming will eventually kill off much of the oceans' oxygen-producing plankton. These plankton are responsible for as much as 50% of all oxygen produced on the planet.)
13. loss of biodiversity,
14. jet stream disruption,
15. mass human migrations,
16 animal and insect migrations,
17. Tsunamis and earthquakes, and
18. economic losses. (In this phase, most nations will spend 1-3 percent of their total gross domestic product (GDP) directly or indirectly paying for the consequences of the global warming emergency.)
19. forests that were a major stabilizing force absorbing carbon become neutral in their carbon absorption and stop taking carbon from the atmosphere. (Soon in later phases the forests will begin to release their vast stores of carbon pushing temperatures higher even faster.)
20. accelerating reef collapses around the world, (which negatively affects fish spawning and feeding areas, which causes more collapse of global fish populations, which causes more human starvation around the world. This is because fish protein is a major source of food for the world's poorer populations.)
21. decreased albedo from reduced snow cover increasing earth's heat,
22. soils overheating and instead of absorbing atmospheric carbon, releasing carbon back into the atmosphere increasing heat,
23. oceans overheating and instead of absorbing atmospheric carbon, releasing it (which also further increases heat, all of which results in more heat speeding up the whole process of more positive feedback loops, crossing more points of no return and tipping points.)
24. an increased amount of methane is released from methane clathrate crystals on coastal shelves because of warmer oceans (this further increases heat, possible ocean current change resulting in extreme weather changes, all of which once again results in more heat speeding up the whole process of more positive feedback loops, crossing more points of no return and tipping points. For more about this mass extinction methane tipping point and time bomb, see the third extinction-evoking global warming tipping point on this page.)
In one way or another, directly or indirectly as the above list of heat-driven global warming consequences increase in severity, frequency, and scale the following things occur:
1. the human capacity to work or produce as before goes down,
2. repair costs and losses go up,
3. less food is available from crops and fish stocks,
4. food prices rise,
5. more people starve,
6. there are more migrations of starving people,
7. there are more conflicts and wars, and
8. more economies and nations collapse.
Phase 5: From 2050-2060, there will be continual critical reactions of global warming consequences with our other global challenges, which will cross-intensify and worsen many of the global warming consequences of this phase as well as our other global challenges themselves.
The other 12 non-global warming challenges to our global society that will both interact with each other and likely continue to worsen in this 5th phase of the Climageddon Scenario are the same as the 12 you read in phase 1 on this page. (See this page if you need to refresh yourself for what is on this long future nightmare list.)
What happens when you mix everything above together in Phase 5?
As we continue to experience more of the multiplying, amplifying and magnifying consequences mentioned above that will also increase in frequency, severity, and scale, we will experience the most serious and random human system crashes and collapses to date. This will then push any remaining of these human systems over their own internal tipping points.
If we fail to reach or come close to the 2025 reduction targets and we reach phase 5, we are not just facing a mass extinction event we are now facing total extinction! This is because we will eventually cross the carbon 600 ppm-level. This is the level where we will also enter the beginning phases of run-away global warming! (If you are not sure about how much worse it can get if we enter a run-a-way global warming phase, click its link in the previous sentence.)
If we reach phase 5 eventually, almost all weak and strong countries will collapse politically under the ever-increasing weight of these rising internal economic, political, and social climate-related catastrophes and resource conflicts.
As we leave phase 5 and enter Phase 6 the nuclear reactors, toxic chemical manufacturing plants, and any chemical or biological weapons stockpiles within collapsed or collapsing nations are overrun and continue the process of multiple nuclear meltdowns and massive toxic chemical releases. Social chaos and instability is the norm among desperate survivors. At the end of Phase 5, all of today's strongest nations are collapsing.
In the latter part of Phase 5, all survivors in the global warming unsafe zones will be forced to become climagees and migrate toward the safest remaining areas. Most if not all of the remaining population of the world will die of starvation, related conflicts in wars, and from the ongoing social chaos. Security bunkers will be breached or run out of supplies and they too will perish.
Risk and threat ratings
Phase 5 Torino impact rating: 10:
Click here and go to the section of the page called Action Plan Section 2 near the bottom of the page to learn what the governments must start doing immediately.
Phase 5 US military DEFCON rating:
Phase 5 US Homeland Security risk rating:
Congratulations! You have finished Phase 5 of the Climageddon Scenario. There are 1 more well-illustrated and soon-arriving Climageddon Scenario phases to review where, unfortunately, things get even worse as global warming worsens.
Because the Climageddon Scenario is already unfolding, please do not forget that if we do reach the last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by plus or minus 5 percent, we will avoid the worst consequences of the Climageddon Scenario and mass extinction! Life over the millennia always seems to find a way to solve its previous mass extinction challenges!
To help prevent the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario from unfolding there exists a deadline-prioritized, effective action plan to ensure we do not trigger the later mass extinction phases. Click here for a brief overview of this plan. Once we get the greatest disruptor and threat multiplier of the 21st-century (global warming,) under control by building truly sustainable lifestyles and livelihoods, we can then move on to some of the deeper social and economic causes of global warming by focusing more on the other non-global warming global challenges mentioned on this page.