Climageddon Scenario Phase 5 beginning as soon as 2050-2070
(To see the Climageddon Scenario Phase 4, click here. Please note that several sections below are repeated or similar to sections in earlier Climageddon phases either for necessary emphasis or because this page will be viewed separately in internet searches.)
Temperatures rise more and faster. Full or near-complete extinction looms for the human race. We hit carbon 600-750+ ppm
The longer Phase 4 continues, the more likely we are to enter Phase 5. In Phase 5, more global warming tipping points and points of no return are crossed in all of the systems previously mentioned. These additional crossed tipping points will further accelerate the colliding into other global warming, climate, human and biological systems, and subsystems, which will trigger more of their tipping points as well. As this meltdown continues, almost all previously mentioned systems will be thrown into utter chaos.
In Phase 5, the average global temperature continues to rise at an even faster rate than previous phases and in a fully exponential manner. In this phase, the global warming consequences continue to increase in frequency and magnitude, also in a fully exponential manner.
This is what is called near-extinction or extinction-level climate destabilization. It is the near to last phase of the Climageddon Scenario.
Environmental collapse, failing economies, and failing nations will begin to collectively collide into each other and into collapsing biological systems, causing unpredictable negative consequences due to the unseen interconnections and interdependencies between climate, human, and biological systems interacting within today's complex and globalized societies. This perfect storm of perfect storms phase has the potential to wreak havoc upon humanity at a level never seen before in human history.
This extinction-level climate destabilization is also defined as the projected potential and eventual extinction of approximately half or more of the biological species on earth and most, if not all, of humanity. Extinction-level climate destabilization will cost billions of lives, possibly the survival of the human species itself.
This extinction-level climate destabilization is associated with the measurement of carbon parts per million in the atmosphere in the range of 600-750+ ppm. The eventual average global temperature increase range associated with Phase 5 is 5°-6° Celsius or about 9°-10.8° Fahrenheit. (This 5°-6° Celsius range is historically significant because scientists have estimated the previous global PETM mass extinction event occurred when the world was only about 5-6° Celsius warmer than it is today.)
There also is a real possibility that extinction-level climate destabilization may never correct or re-balance itself to some new climate equilibrium level, but simply move to Phase 6. And even if the climate were able to correct or re-balance itself, it could take thousands or hundreds of thousands of years. In this phase, the cost of such cascading chains of global warming-related disasters and consequences across all of the interconnected systems is likely to be in the $200-$600 trillion range.
At the current rate, we could be in Phase 5 in less than 83 years (about 2099) if the carbon 3 ppm annual increase does not go up any higher and we do not cross additional tipping points in Phase 2, 3, or 4 of the Climageddon Scenario. Once again, it is far more likely we will hit the predicted higher average global temperatures much sooner (2050-2070) due to crossing many global warming tipping points and the higher average annual carbon ppm levels going into the atmosphere from burning more fossil fuels. In Phase 5, there may be a possibility that several hundred million humans will still be able to survive in the poorer growing soils of the northernmost and southernmost countries.
When all or most of the previously mentioned five phases have occurred, it is the second last step to the end game of the Climageddon Scenario. The probability of entering Phase 6 once Phase 5 has been entered and maintained for a considerable length of time (25-100+ years) is unknown. Currently, there is not enough research to know at what level of carbon ppm we will enter into Phase 6. It could be somewhere near carbon 750 -800 ppm, or it could occur considerably above that level.
The warning signs of phase 5 from 2050-2070
The following listing of positive feedback loops, points of no return, tipping points, consequences, and interactions with our other current global challenges should be considered as good warning signs we are both in phase 5 or moving rapidly through phase 5 into phase 6. Watch for information about these consequences and events occurring in the news.
Particularly watch to see if they're being described as worse than before or as breaking all previous records. Look carefully at what the consequence pattern and trend is moving toward. These are the best objective accelerating warning signs that individuals can see for themselves and that will motivate thoughtful individuals to act appropriately.
Phase 5: The following general global warming consequences will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale from 2050-2070.
The global warming-related consequences that will occur and continue to increase in this phase from continuing to burn fossil fuels at anything close to the rates we are now are the same as in phase 4:
1. atmospheric heating which increases average global temperature,
2. new disease outbreaks, epidemics, and more COVID-19 like pandemics in areas where they have never been before. (This is due to loss of natural animal habitat, eating more wild animals, additional melting of the permafrost, overcrowding, less resilient health systems, and mass migrations. Because of accelerating global warming consequences, we could be experiencing COVID-19 type pandemics every decade.)
3. shrinking sea ice and ice shelves, glaciers and snowpack,
4. crop failures increasing mass starvation, and soaring food prices,
5. extreme storms of all kinds, (hurricanes, tornadoes, rain bombs, bomb cyclones, etc,)
7. clean drinking water scarcity,
9. fires and wildfires,
11. toxic air pollution,
12. ocean acidification, (Ocean heating and ocean acidification from carbon from global warming will eventually kill off much of the oceans' oxygen-producing plankton. These plankton are responsible for as much as 50% of all oxygen produced on the planet.)
13. loss of biodiversity,
14. jet stream disruption,
15. mass human migrations,
16 animal and insect migrations,
17. forests that were a major stabilizing force absorbing carbon become neutral in their carbon absorption and stop taking carbon from the atmosphere. (Soon in later phases the forests will begin to release their vast stores of carbon pushing temperatures higher even faster.)
18. economic losses. (In this phase, surviving nations will spend 40% or more of their total gross domestic product (GDP) directly or indirectly paying for the consequences of the global warming emergency.)
19. accelerating reef collapses around the world, (which negatively affects fish spawning and feeding areas, which causes more collapse of global fish populations, which causes more human starvation around the world. This is because fish protein is a major source of food for the world's poorer populations.)
20. increased slowing continues in the Atlantic Current. This further destabilizes global weather.
21. decreased albedo from reduced snow cover increasing earth's heat,
22. soils overheating and instead of absorbing atmospheric carbon, they begin releasing carbon back into the atmosphere increasing heat,
23. oceans overheating and instead of absorbing atmospheric carbon, they begin releasing it (which also further increases heat, all of which results in more heat speeding up the whole process of more positive feedback loops, crossing more points of no return and tipping points.)
24. an increased amount of methane is released from the permafrost and methane clathrate crystals on coastal shelves because of warmer oceans (this further increases heat, possible ocean current change resulting in extreme weather changes, all of which once again results in more heat speeding up the whole process of more positive feedback loops, crossing more points of no return and tipping points. For more about this mass extinction methane tipping point and time bomb, see the third extinction-evoking global warming tipping point on this page.)
In one way or another, directly or indirectly as the above list of heat-driven global warming consequences increase in severity, frequency, and scale the following things occur:
1. Overall, there will ever-increasing damage to our economic, social, and political systems. This will cause immense, even unthinkable human suffering.
2. The total human capacity to work or produce will go down significantly, causing more business and distribution interruptions, business, and personal uncertainty, and unemployment.
3. There will be less food available from crops and fish stocks due to many of the extreme climate consequences.
4. Food prices will rise.
5. More people will starve.
6. The costs for living, repair, maintenance, building, or rebuilding in global warming safer areas will continue to go up.
7. There will be increasing disease, epidemics, and pandemics.
8. There be increasing migrations of starving, sick, or unemployed people fleeing from climate consequences and unstable or collapsed economies or nations.
9. There will be ever-increasing criminality by larger and larger portions of the population who are starving, ill or unemployed, and desperately trying to survive by any means possible.
10. Because of the growing criminality and social and political chaos, governments will impose states of emergency and martial law resulting in increased restrictions, suffering, and the loss of many hard-won human rights.
11. As the social economic and political chaos spreads, there will be more regional, national, and international conflicts and more conventional (and even a great potential for limited nuclear wars) because of growing resource scarcity, global warming-safe land scarcity, and increasing unstoppable migrations.
12. When all of the above items are taken collectively, it will cause additional economies and nations that were less stable to collapse entirely. And finally,
13. Human suffering and global deaths will continue to increase exponentially. Human deaths will pass mass extinction levels and we begin to face total extinction.
Phase 5: From 2050-2060, there will be continual critical reactions of global warming consequences with our other global challenges, which will cross-intensify and worsen many of the global warming consequences of this phase as well as our other global challenges themselves.
Global warming is not taking place in a vacuum where the world is not also dealing with other major global crises. At this stage humanity's 12 other critical global crises are also so much worse because of global warming that the survival of humankind is nearly impossible For most of humanity's 12 other critical global crises, climate change, and global warming are simultaneously the great disruptors of the 21st century as well as threat mega-multipliers.
Below are the other non-global warming challenges to our global society that will both interact with each other and likely continue to worsen in this phase of the Climageddon Scenario. These 12 challenges steadily getting worse over time are also likely to add additional economic, social, and political instability, uncertainty, and chaos to the destruction levels caused solely by global warming within this phase.
In some cases, these 12 challenges getting worse can also speed up the negative effects of economic, social, and political instability, uncertainty, and chaos caused by global warming within this particular Climageddon Scenario phase.
Here is a brief re-listing of these other 12 critical global challenges:
Global Challenge 1: resolving the current COVID-19 global pandemic,
Global Challenge 2: increasing global economic instabilities,
Global Challenge 3: over-population,
Global Challenge 4: rising global resource depletion,
Global Challenge 5: escalating pollution of lands, air, and waters.
Global Challenge 6: loss of biodiversity,
Global Challenge 7: growing economic inequality, social and racial injustice, hunger, and poverty.
Global Challenge 8: escalating regional and international terrorism, conflicts, and war,
Global Challenge 9: mass migrations,
Global Challenge 10: new COVID-19 like pandemics as well as other new and old disease epidemics that will likely occur every decade,
Global Challenge 11: increasing political instability and collapsing governments, And
Global Challenge 12: our failure to evolve effective global governance. (For a full description of each of these 12 critical global challenges, click here.
The other 12 non-global warming challenges to our global society that will both interact with each other and likely continue to worsen in this 5th phase of the Climageddon Scenario are the same as the 12 you read in phase 1 on this page. When you mix the accelerating global warming threat multiplier in with these 12 other expanding global challenges you create for yourself a converging cascade of endless catastrophes.
(See this page if you need to refresh yourself for what is on this long future nightmare list of details relating to the 12 other critical global warming challenges.)
Global Warming: the Keystone to the Global Collapse of Civilization
It is also essential to learn to think about accelerating global warming as the keystone of impending global collapse. This is because it will speed up the collapse of most of the other 12 global challenges.
If you have seen a Roman architectural arch, you already know a little about what a keystone is. It is the central, usually triangular-shaped stone at the top center of the curvature. It is also the critical supporting stone that holds all the other stones in place and maintains the integrity and strength of the arch. If you pull a keystone out of a Roman arch, the whole arch immediately crumbles and ultimately falls in on itself.
That is also what will figuratively happen with civilization if we let global warming get out of control.
Imagine a Roman arch made up of global warming (our climate) as its keystone and the other 12 global challenges as the remaining stones holding up the arch of our civilization. In this image, global warming is the keystone that when it crumbles (due to accelerating heat) will lead to the ultimate collapse of our global civilization.
Unfortunately, our accelerating global warming challenge will also facilitate the collapse of our global civilization in the quickest and surest way. The only global challenge that will lead to a quicker and more certain global civilization collapse is an immediate global nuclear war.
Additionally, do not forget that when the global warming keystone begins to collapse, it also forces the other 12 global challenges to have intensified consequences and themselves begin collapsing far faster than we can be prepared for or from which we can recover. If the global warming keystone collapses by crossing more and more of its internal tipping points (as described in the six Climageddon phases), every projected time frame relating to global warming's consequences and the world's 12 other global challenges would also radically change for the worse.
Outcomes that were predicted to be many decades away could now become just a few decades away. At the least, the consequences and timeframes indicated in the six Climageddon Scenario phases would be significantly speeded up!
Up until now, the focus of the Climageddon Scenario has been near exclusively on global warming. At this point, it is critical to also see the collapse of our civilization as a separate and far more significant issue hidden within the global warming emergency.
When accelerating global warming multiplies and amplifies the consequences of the 12 other global challenges, it becomes the hot, lit match that can rapidly expedite the adverse effects of the other 12 global challenges causing them to explode. This explosion of adverse consequences across our global challenges would result in the complete or near-complete collapse of our global civilization.
Worse yet, the multiplying and amplifying effect of accelerating global warming on the other 12 global warming challenges could shorten the Climageddon Scenario predicted time frames for the coming social, economic, and political consequences (with their resultant potentials for system collapse and chaos) by as much as 10-30 percent or more.
What happens when you mix escalating global warming consequences with the escalating consequences of the other 12 global challenges in Phase 5?
As we continue to experience more of the multiplying, amplifying and magnifying consequences mentioned above that will also increase in frequency, severity, and scale, we will experience the most serious and random human system crashes and collapses to date. This will then push any remaining of these human systems over their own internal tipping points.
If we fail to reach or come close to the 2025 reduction targets and we reach phase 5, we are not just facing a mass extinction event we are now facing total extinction! This is because we will eventually cross the carbon 600 ppm-level. This is the level where we will also enter the beginning phases of run-away global warming! (If you are not sure about how much worse it can get if we enter a run-a-way global warming phase, click its link in the previous sentence.)
If we reach phase 5 eventually, almost all weak and strong countries will collapse politically under the ever-increasing weight of these rising internal economic, political, and social climate-related catastrophes and resource conflicts.
As we leave phase 5 and enter Phase 6 the nuclear reactors, toxic chemical manufacturing plants, and any chemical or biological weapons stockpiles within collapsed or collapsing nations are overrun and continue the process of multiple nuclear meltdowns and massive toxic chemical releases. Social chaos and instability is the norm among desperate survivors. At the end of Phase 5, all of today's strongest nations are collapsing.
In the latter part of Phase 5, all survivors in the global warming unsafe zones will be forced to become climagees and migrate toward the safest remaining areas. Most if not all of the remaining population of the world will die of starvation, related conflicts in wars, and from the ongoing social chaos. Security bunkers will be breached or run out of supplies and they too will perish.
Risk and threat ratings
Phase 5 Torino impact rating: 10:
Click here and go to the section of the page called Action Plan Section 2 near the bottom of the page to learn what the governments must start doing immediately.
Phase 5 US military DEFCON rating:
Phase 5 US Homeland Security risk rating:
Congratulations! You have finished Phase 5 of the Climageddon Scenario. There are 1 more well-illustrated and soon-arriving Climageddon Scenario phases to review where, unfortunately, things get even worse as global warming worsens.
Because the Climageddon Scenario is already unfolding, please do not forget that if we do reach the last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets by plus or minus 5 percent, we will avoid the worst consequences of the Climageddon Scenario and mass extinction! Life over the millennia always seems to find a way to solve its previous mass extinction challenges!
To help prevent the 6 phases of the Climageddon Scenario from unfolding there exists a deadline-prioritized, effective action plan to ensure we do not trigger the later mass extinction phases. Click here for a brief overview of this plan. Once we get the greatest disruptor and threat multiplier of the 21st-century (global warming,) under control by building truly sustainable lifestyles and livelihoods, we can then move on to some of the deeper social and economic causes of global warming by focusing more on the other non-global warming global challenges mentioned on this page.
Special July 2020 update: There is an important update to the preparation, adaptation, and migration timetables for surviving the Climageddon Scenario found here.