How can you and I face the predicament that humankind and modern civilization have created? 

(Alvin Urquhart is the guest blogger for this article. He was the Head of the Department of Geography for many years at the University of Oregon and was also Director of the Environmental Studies Program at the University of Oregon. This article originally appeared in the Eugene Oregon weekly.)

Billions of people will die in this century. No timely or adequate actions will be taken to solve the continuing pollution of the atmosphere that has greatly altered the ecology of the Earth. New ecological conditions will result in a world less able to maintain life and modern civilization. We are at or near an ecological tipping point beyond which the conditions of life will only worsen.

Last April, the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), using data based on 14,000 scientific articles, set forth the actions necessary to prevent further deterioration of the Earth’s climate. It said that global greenhouse gas emissions would need to peak before 2025, at the latest, and be reduced by 43% by 2030 if global warming was to remain below 1.5^o C (2.7o F). Atmospheric methane would also need to be reduced by about a third. The non-profit environmental organization, Job One for Humanity, has indicated several excellent reasons that the IPCC report underestimated the necessary reductions by 20-40%. If Job One for Humanity is correct, the major industrial nations must reduce their use of fossil fuel by 75% by 2025 and to net-zero by 2035 to prevent runaway global heating. This means that within three--at the most, eight and a half--years, political, social, and economic actions must have dramatically reversed the course of the use of fossil fuels of the past 100 years. There is no reason to believe that that will happen.

Source: Climate Central 

The importance of designating an 1.5^o C temperature increase over pre-industrial measurements is that, if exceeded, major radical changes in the Earth’s ecology will occur. Job One for Humanity (JOfH), uses a different measurement of a tipping point--425-450 ppm of atmospheric carbon dioxide--at which level, unstoppable global heating will occur. Once the tipping point of 1.5^oC or 450 ppm is exceeded, any realistic or practical control of future global warming to prevent mass extinctions is impossible. The warnings of the IPCC and JOfH are similar in that the timing and necessity of drastic reductions in use of fossil fuels must occur immediately to prevent runaway additions of CO₂.

Six decades of valid scientific warnings have been ignored and global heating continues to grow exponentially. As a result of passing the 425-450 ppm threshold, Job One for Humanity projects that half of humanity will die by mid-century. With even further concentrations of CO₂, methane, and nitrous acid in the atmosphere,  more humans and other animals and plant life will die before the end of 21^st century.

Most CO₂ in the atmosphere is derived from the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions have grown exponentially since the 19^th century. More than half of all the emissions--about 60% have occurred in the last 25 years. During my 91-year lifetime, emissions have increased about 12 times or 400%. In 2022, the production of fossil fuels and the emissions of CO₂ are likely to increase to their highest levels.

The level of future production and consumption of fossil fuels is uncertain. Such events as the impact of lowered demand during the Covid pandemic and of the disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine make even short-term projections difficult. Nevertheless, The Guardian newspaper (May 11, 2022) made an extensive survey of the fossil fuel production plans of all major fossil fuel companies. It indicated that within the next seven years fossil fuel industries have plans for gigantic oil and gas projects--what the Guardian calls “carbon bombs”--that would result in a billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions. Over their lifetimes those emissions would equal 18 years at current levels. Global emissions must remain below 500 gigatonnes CO2 to have a 50% chance of preventing 1.5^o C of global warming. However, ongoing and scheduled projects would produce 646 gigatonnes CO2; thus vastly exceed the 1.5^o C target.

The world’s twelve largest energy companies plan to spend $103 million a day until 2030 in producing fuels from new fields. The Guardian reports: “This means that the major fossil fuel producing companies have committed themselves to exceed the global carbon budget in the next 7 years.”  These huge oil and gas corporations will also receive national subsidies. (At present, the US subsidizes fossil fuels about $2000 per capita each year.) And under the Energy Charter Treaty, energy companies have received large financial awards from national governments as mitigation for losses they have incurred because of public policies.

National pledges to reduce CO₂ emissions since the Paris Climate Conference of 2015 and renewed at the Glasgow Conference last November, are far from being met. Each delay in meeting the 1.5o C goal makes it increasingly unlikely that it can be attained. Over forty years ago, scientists both at EXON and in the Jimmy Carter administration recognized the direct connection between the burning of fossil fuels and the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere. Between then and the 6^th IPCC report of last April, additional scientific studies, numerous national and international meetings, as well as a constant stream of United Nations’ reports, conferences, agreements, and national pledges have been made. In the meantime, atmospheric carbon has increased from 317 ppm to 421.71 ppm on June 14, 2022.

Source of base: Scripps Institution of Oceanography; UC San Diego; NOAA 

The world is far from meeting the goals to reduce CO₂ set by the IPCC. National pledges have not been met. Only through extreme governmental actions by all of major developed and developing nations could they be met. In the US, those actions have been stalled or rejected in Congress. The US and other governments continue to subsidize fossil fuel companies. Major banks still find fossil fuel industries to be good investments. India and China are building more coal-fired energy plants.  Russia is financing its invasion of Ukraine by selling natural gas and oil. OPEC tries to control oil prices by setting production quotas to maintain long-term profits.

More importantly, most nations and capitalistic organizations desire economic growth to provide ever-increasing goods and services, all of which depend upon energy. Pledges to reduce CO₂ emissions are countered by demands for cheap gas and economic growth. The transition to more efficient electrical, industrial, heating, and transportation systems needs massive amounts of fossil fuel energy for development, construction, and maintenance. Facilities to capture solar and wind power and to sequester CO₂ depend on the use of fossil fuels. Technological solutions are too little and too late. Electric energy is but a small part of energy demand. The “green revolution” in agriculture that has staved off massive hunger depends on fossil fuels.  Individuals want both low gas prices and goods from all over the world. But as the population of the world still continues to grow by 80 to 90 million people each year, total demand will increase, even as per capita consumption of goods and services decrease.

Within this decade, the real world faces a runaway tipping point. Possibly it has already. The human world is in a predicament in which “ifs”, “hopes”, and “pledges” cannot produce solutions in a timely way. Only an unlikely radical, rapid degrowth in consumption of fossil fuels can reverse the path of global climate heating.  And even if climate heating could be avoided, an Earth of eight billion humans can not be supported by known natural resources. 

The Earth’s ecology is unraveling rapidly. The question is not how do we stop this physical process; because we can’t. We might take mitigating actions at many levels as proposed on the website:  joboneforhumanity.org. However, I think that the most important question we should be asking ourselves is:  As modern civilization is shaken to its core, how can you and I face the ongoing predicament in a thoughtful, humane way?

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