Lawrence Wollersheim

  • commented on Why the climate and environmental movements must replace using climate change with the term runaway global heating extinction emergency? 2022-05-19 12:50:38 -0700
    Hi Neil, While I understand your concerns, we have so little time left to make radical changes to our fossil fuel use that it is time to tell the deep shocking truth. Those that are ready or close, will get it. Those that are a long way away from understanding our emergency, will bounce off it, but it will stick in many of their minds and provide a new and more accurate framework for the next time they view runaway global heating consequences worsening. Also, I suggest you read this page to fully grasp the true urgency of the runaway global heating extinction emergency: https://www.joboneforhumanity.org/why_we_have_on_3_9_years_left_to

  • published Part 3 Support Sign up 2022-05-11 15:49:55 -0700

    Free Support Sign up for Part 3 of the Job One Plan

    Thank you for signing up for the free support for Part 3 of the Job One Plan. This support sign-up step is critical if you want the best chance of success with the Part 3 actions. Extensive research has shown that having support for completing a task can be up to 90% of the reason why that task was completed successfully.

    You also will be able to ask questions and share your experiences and successes with this support tool.

    The Job one Support Team

    Sign up

  • published Plan B Support Sign Up 2022-05-11 14:43:08 -0700

    Get Free Support for the Climate and Runaway Global Heating PLAN B Here

    Thank you for signing up for the free support for the Job One for Humanity PLAN B. This support sign-up step is critical if you want the best chance of success with the PLAN B actions. Extensive research has shown that having support for completing a task can be up to 90% of the reason why that task was completed successfully.

    You also will be able to ask questions and share your experiences and successes with this support tool.

    The Job one Support Team

    Sign up

  • Free Support Sign up for Part 2 of Job One for Humanity Plan

    Thank you for signing up for the free support for Part 2 of the Job One Plan. This support sign-up step is critical if you want the best chance of success with the Part 2 actions. Extensive research has shown that having support for completing a task can be up to 90% of the reason why that task was completed successfully.

    You also will be able to ask questions and share your experiences and successes with this support tool.

    The Job one Support Team

    Sign up

  • Support Sign up for Part 1

    Thank you for signing up for the free Job One Plan support. This support sign-up step is critical if you want the best chance of success with the Part 1 actions. Extensive research has shown that having support for completing a task can be up to 90% of the reason why that task was completed successfully.

    You also will be able to ask questions and share your experiences and successes with this support tool.

    The Job one Support Team

    Sign up

  • Book Review on a book that is Not Your Grandmother's New Book About Climate Chaos

    New Book Review: What to Do if Your Chute Doesn’t Open! Survivors Guide to the Last Days of the Coming Climate Inferno

    Read more

  • What is runaway global heating and why do we have only until 2025-2031 to fix it and prevent our extinction within decades?

    Overview

    Most people that hear our governments talking about fossil fuel reduction targets for 2040-2060 have no idea if we fail to make key reductions over the next 3-9 years, we are totally screwed! But why?

    The following article covers those reasons in detail. The key reasons we are almost out of time to prevent our extinction are:

    1. Our many climate consequences will rise exponentially about 2025-2031 instead of rising at their current levels of gradual increases.

    2. We are already in a state of runaway global heating. If you imagined runaway global heating like a train without brakes rolling down a mountain, which is getting steeper and steeper, you would have a good idea about the seriousness of the ever-rising temperatures of runaway global heating.

    James Hansen, a former NASA climate scientist, and leading climate researcher said that humanity should be safe if we stayed below an atmospheric carbon level of 350 parts per million (ppm). However, he also said that if we go beyond an atmospheric carbon level of about 386 ppm, we will enter into a state of runaway global heating. As of March of 2022, we were at carbon 421 ppm.

     

     

     

     

    3. We ensure continuing global temperatures rises if we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm level. These levels of atmospheric carbon would eventually lock in an eventual total increase in average global temperature of about 2 -2.7° Celsius (4° - 4.9° Fahrenheit) from preindustrial levels. 

    Once we cross the 2° plus Celsius (the carbon 425-450 ppm level,) the higher mass extinction-accelerating temperature levels of 3°, 4°, 5°, and even 6° Celsius will also be all but locked in! According to James Hansen, a carbon 450 ppm level would eventually develop into an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century and be the end of human civilization as we've come to know it. 

    4. If we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm level, we also begin triggering many additional climate tipping points and amplifying feedback loops. These tipping points and feedback loops will cause the primary and secondary consequences of global heating to occur more severely, frequently, and over larger and larger areas. Post-carbon 450 ppm, no government will be able to deal with these global heating consequences for long.

    What does it mean in terms of your future?

    Beginning about 2025-2031, the severity, frequency, and scale of current climate change consequences will rise exponentiallyThese rising consequences include heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, flooding, rain bombs, Derechos, extreme wind, dust, wildfire smoke storms, unseasonable and sudden cold spells, and wet areas will become wetter and dry areas dryer.

    This increase in climate consequence severity, frequency, and scale is because we have already crossed into the beginning stages of runaway global heatingBecause climate change consequences will soon begin rising exponentially, you may have only another 3-9 more years of relative climate change stability, depending upon where you live. (Beginning around 2025, if you are in a high-risk climate change area, the global warming consequences that you are already experiencing will start to become far worse than you are experiencing currently.)

    Climate consequences will accelerate exponentially because more critical climate tipping points will be crossed! Saying we have only three to, at best, nine more years left to control climate change and global heating does not mean that humanity will go extinct in 3-9 years! It only means that if we do not do what is necessary to radically reduce global fossil fuel use over the next 3 to 9 years to meet the 2025 global targets:

    1. many more climate change consequences will begin to occur at vastly higher levels of severity, frequency, and scale. (They will increase exponentially.) And

    2. humanity will face many more unavoidable cataclysmic climate change consequences (such as about half of humanity going extinct by mid-century.) 

    One could easily consider the whole page below an excellent expanded definition of runaway global heating. Please also note that what you are about to read below falls within the definition of Abrupt Climate Change. The two most common definitions of Abrupt Climate Change are:

    • In terms of impacts, "an abrupt change is one that takes place so rapidly and unexpectedly that human or natural systems have difficulty adapting to it".
    • In terms of physics, it is a transition of the climate system into a different mode on a time scale that is faster than the responsible forcing.

     

     

    What your governments do not want you to know about the accelerating climate change and the runaway global heating emergency

    To put the climate danger we are in over the next 3-to 9 years (2025-2031) in the proper perspective, it is vital to be aware that atmospheric carbon was at about carbon 270 parts per million (ppm) for hundreds of thousands of years prior to the Industrial revolution. At carbon 270 ppm, there was climate stability. (See Atmospheric CO2 carbon graph above.)

    James Hansen calculated that only if we kept atmospheric carbon below the carbon 350 ppm level, we would avoid the worse consequences of climate change, global warming, and mass extinction. What follows are the many details on how and why not crossing the carbon 425-450 ppm level is so critical to our future survival. 

    Most people do not understand that getting close to the extinction-preventing 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets will keep us from crossing the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold. Nor do they understand the physics and mechanics behind the laws of climate momentum and human inertia.

    The difficult news

    Our current climate momentum factors mean that even if we stopped ALL global burning of fossil fuels today, global temperatures would continue rising for the next 2-3 (or more) decades. Furthermore, it also means that the radical 2025 global fossil fuel reductions we must make immediately will not deliver significant and observable benefits to the average citizen for about 2-3 decades. Finally, if we ever do make the needed fossil fuel reductions, this climate momentum time lag will challenge the patience and understanding of most everyone, not just our politicians. 

     

     

     

    The graph above beautifully illustrates an exponential rise in the three critical atmospheric greenhouse gases expressed in parts per billion. Since the mid-1700s and the start of the Industrial Revolution, these gases have been mostly human-made from burning fossil fuels. As a result, each of these greenhouse gases has built up considerable atmospheric heat-increasing momentum! (Click here if you need to learn more about our 40 years of failed global fossil fuel reductions.)

    We now only have until about 2025 to 2031 to maintain control of our global warming futures. This short time is because we will cross new dangerous climate tipping points as we pass through the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold. The following sections will explain why.

    The climate cliff, beginning runaway global warming and complete runaway global warming

    For a little bit, we must talk about the concept of the climate cliff and what it is before we detail the first extinction-producing tipping point which is when we cross the carbon 425-450 threshold. For years, our organization had previously called this carbon 425-450 ppm level the climate cliff. (In this article, you will also hear us call the carbon 425-450 ppm level our first extinction-triggering or producing tipping point.)

    The original climate cliff 425-450 ppm level was based on the United Nations' decades-long-held target of keeping the average global temperature rising no more than 2°C above preindustrial levels. Recently the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) lowered its temperature target level based on realizing the consequences of a 2°C temperature increase above preindustrial levels would be far worse than original research indicated.

    The UN's new climate cliff level of 2020 is now to stay below an average global temperature increase of 1.5C. This target level has changed because global warming consequences above this temperature are now known to be much worse than previously believed.

    One of the other significant reasons now being acknowledged among recognized climate scientists for the new UN 1.5 C climate cliff temperature target level is that there are already considerably more atmospheric carbon emissions than was previously predicted. These additional carbon emissions come from other amplifying carbon feedback loops and carbon sink failures.

    Many of these further amplifying carbon feedback loops and carbon sink issues will start to show up just beyond a 1.5C average global temperature increase as soon as 2025. (These amplifying carbon feedbacks and carbon sink failures will be described in detail further below.)

    Newer research also shows that staying at or near a 1.5 C of average global temperature increase level is the only temperature level that entirely excludes the beginning level of runaway global warming and continuing to cross additional extinction-triggering global warming tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops.

    Newer research also shows that staying at or near a 1.5 C of average global temperature increase level may be the temperature level that entirely excludes the beginning level of runaway global warming and continuing to cross additional extinction-triggering global warming tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops.

    There are several different levels of runaway global warming, beginning level, extinction level, and the Venus effect level. 

    The beginning level of runaway global warming is defined as the point where numerous climate change and global warming consequences become catastrophic and unavoidable! For example, the UN's new 1.5 C climate cliff temperature threshold now means that because of what just the beginning level of runaway global warming can do, going above 1.5C level will eventually lead to the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. (This link will show you how this mass extinction event will happen.)

    Extinction level runaway global warming is the level of runaway global warming that will ensure humanity's near-total extinction. Venus level runaway global warming will be so bad that it rips the atmosphere off our planet. As a result, the Earth will lose all human and biological life. This level of runaway global warming is believed to have happened to the planet Venus.

    In our own internal 2016-17 climate analysis, using existing fossil fuel infrastructure, we calculated the first climate cliff for triggering beginning level runaway global warming (an unstoppable crossing of more amplifying global warming tipping points) would occur between the carbon 425 to carbon 450 ppm levels. These levels of atmospheric carbon would eventually create at least, a global 2C - 2.7C temperature increase over preindustrial levels. 

    Because of the UN IPCC threshold level of 1.5C, the beginning temperature and carbon limits for our former carbon climate cliff level now needed to be updated from its previous carbon level (425-450 ppm) and previous temperature level of about 2 -2.7° C above preindustrial levels to the new 1.5 C climate cliff starting point (about carbon 386.)

    The new climate cliff shocker

    The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has previously calculated that reaching the carbon 420 ppm level is equivalent to a 1.6 C average global temperature increase from preindustrial levels. They made this very low-temperature rise calculation without including crossing any of the many climate tipping points or amplifying carbon feedback loops. But, as you will soon discover, we have already crossed important climate tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops and will quickly cross many more. (Our calculations making reasonable allowances and adjustments for crossed tipping points and omitted amplifying carbon feedback loops show the temperatures will rise much higher than the UN's temperature calculations.)

    To have stayed below a 1.5 C target temperature increase, we would have had to have kept our atmospheric carbon level below 386 ppm. But, around 2015, we already had crossed over 386 carbon ppm level and ensured we would hit the 1.5 C level. 

    The good news is we can still slow down the extinction of half of humanity by mid-century if we come close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. (It is perfectly normal to reject or doubt the possibility of such large-scale extinction occurring so soon. Therefore, we strongly recommend at some point clicking here to see the detailed sequences of some 80 primary and secondary consequences that will bring about the extinction of about half of humanity.)

    All we can do now is slow and delay our partial extinction. But, it will take a government-driven mass mobilization to do it. This government-driven mass mobilization would have to radically reduce global fossil fuel use and get very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as its first action. 

    If the world governments act immediately and get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, more people will live longer and more comfortably. And, maybe we can still save humanity from the only thing that is worse than the extinction of half or more of humanity by mid-century, humanity's near-total extinction occurring from about 2050-2080 or sooner. 

    And, there is a bit more bad news. Acting only to minimize the current global warming extinction threat is insane! It is insane because any temperature increase of 1.5 C will also trigger the crossing of three more extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops.

    If nothing is done by our governments to radically slow and then reverse the average global temperature increase above the 1.5 C level, near-total extinction will be our eventual future. Supporting this 1.5 C danger is the Siberia permafrost field research (rather than the currently less accurate computer modeling) by Anton Vaks. (Reversing climate change means we need to get back down to at least carbon 350 ppm for some stability and hopefully and eventually back down to carbon 270 ppm where both humans and nature flourished.)

    This Siberian research puts a global permafrost "thaw-down" also beginning at 1.5 C. This Siberian research means that when the world's permafrost crosses this 1.5 C average global temperature increase tipping point, the world's permafrost begins a near-continuous meltdown. Furthermore, this research indicates that after we reach this 1.5 C average global temperature increase, all permafrost stored carbon and methane will eventually be released from the permafrost. 

    This 1.5C permafrost release point plus other human-made carbon and methane releases put us squarely on the fast track for the worst global warming prediction scenarios. (Click here for more documentation on the permafrost meltdown.)

    Our ticking permafrost methane time bomb is further illuminated by the rising atmospheric methane CH4 graph below. When viewing this methane graph, consider that atmospheric methane is about 80 times more effective than atmospheric carbon in increasing global warming. (The atmospheric methane graph below is in parts per billion [ppb].) 

     

    It is vital to know how having already crossed the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff will further accelerate the crossing of more global warming tipping points and amplify carbon feedback loops

    The new carbon 386 ppm tipping point level was our last chance climate cliff because it was our last window of opportunity to keep from crossing the next critical atmospheric carbon threshold, which, when crossed, will significantly accelerate crossing more global warming tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops. Once we go over this 386 ppm climate cliff, our average global temperature will inevitably rise considerably above 1.5C - 2°C (eventually possibly as much as 3.2 C in eventual equilibrium warming. Equilibrium warming is known as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS.) it is the long-term temperature rise (equilibrium global mean near-surface air temperature) that is expected to result from a doubling of the atmospheric COconcentration.)

    Moreover, this temperature rise will be far faster than has ever occurred over previous human-friendly geologically-scaled periods. This means that what used to happen over millennia or centuries within our climate systems will now occur over decades!

    Unfortunately, rapidly rising global temperatures are not the worst effect of crossing the carbon 386 ppm level and climate cliff. These fast temperature rises will also create a decisive additional climate momentum factor in addition to the already existing atmospheric carbon momentum. This further climate-related momentum will not only push our global temperature even higher even faster, but it will also force many of the 11 climate tipping points below and more tipping points within the climate's subsystems to be crossed much faster! 

    (The illustration below lists the 11 major global warming tipping points. The arrows between the tipping points indicate that these tipping points interact and can also trigger each other's system or subsystem tipping points. Global warming temperatures will soar faster and faster as we cross more climate tipping points, which will cross even more climate and human system tipping points in an endless feedback loop.) 

     

     

    At some point, we also strongly recommend that you click here to learn more details about what each tipping point above is and how they will unfold to bring us closer to near-total extinction. This tipping point meltdown detail page covers what happens when you cross each of the above global warming tipping points, how they accelerate global warming temperature rise, how they accelerate global warming consequences, and how they cause sudden and complete climate, biological and human system collapses. Crossing these climate tipping points will also make any possible recovery from crossing these tipping points impossible or much slower, harder, and more expensive. This expanded tipping point reading will help you "see" the tremendous and dangerous impact that the many additional and soon-arriving crossed global warming tipping points will have on your future.

    (At some point, to learn more about tipping point effects, we also strongly recommend that you click here to learn more details about what each tipping point above is and how they will unfold to bring us closer to near-total extinction. This additional tipping point meltdown page covers what happens when you cross the above tipping points, how they accelerate the global warming temperature rise, consequences, and how they will cause sudden and complete climate, biological and human system collapses if left unchecked. Crossing these climate tipping points will also make any possible recovery from crossing these tipping points either impossible or much slower, more complicated, and more expensive. This expanded tipping point reading will help you "see" the tremendous and dangerous impact that the many additional and soon-arriving crossed global warming tipping points will have on your future.)

    What to expect in rising temperatures now that we have crossed the carbon 386 climate cliff into runaway global warming and heading toward the first extinction-triggering tipping point

    Since we have already passed carbon 386 ppm level back around 2015, within about five years (around 2025 or less), we can expect to lock in an eventual total minimal increase in average global temperature of about 1.5 C. 

    Next, we cross the carbon 425 ppm level by or before about 2025; we can expect to lock in an additional eventual total increase in average global temperature of about 2 -2.7° Celsius (4° - 4.9° Fahrenheit) from preindustrial levels. (In January of 2022, we were at about carbon 419 ppm.) 

    The distinguished Professor of Meteorology Michael Mann from the University of Pennsylvania recently stated that once we reach the atmospheric carbon 405 ppm level, a 2 degrees C average global temperature increase is already baked in! And, once that happens, the terrible news is that we can do nothing effective at this point to stop those temperature levels from rising for many more decades. 

    At this 1.5 -2.7° Celsius increased average global temperature level, hundreds of millions will eventually starve, and hundreds of millions of people worldwide will eventually be forced to migrate or die. 

    Once we went over the new climate cliff of carbon 386 ppm, we doomed ourselves to hit the 1.5 Celsius global temperature increase level. Furthermore, we were also condemned by the total heat-producing momentum of all of the previous carbon and other greenhouse gases that we have ever put into the atmosphere, along with the other factors mentioned further down this page. All of which will inevitably and quickly not only push our global temperature even higher but also trigger the crossing of ever more tipping points at an accelerating rate!

    Because we have already gone over the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff and triggered this next level of accelerating climate tipping point crossings, we are now locked into continually increasing temperatures for as much as the next 30+ years and crossing even more dangerous tipping points! 

    We will reach our next even more dangerous transitional carbon and temperature threshold when we cross the carbon 425-450 carbon ppm tipping point level. This is the extinction-triggering threshold where, because of crossing even more future global warming tipping points being crossed at an accelerating rate, we will be unable to stop ourselves from proceeding uncontrollably to average global temperature increases of 3°, 4°, 5°, and 6° Celsius (5.4°, 7.2°, 9°, and 10.8° Fahrenheit respectively.) 

    Once we cross the 2° Celsius (the carbon 425-450 ppm level,) the higher mass extinction accelerating temperature levels of 3°, 4°, 5°, and even 6° Celsius will be all but locked in! 

    According to James Hansen, one of the world's most influential climate researchers, a carbon 450 ppm level would eventually develop into an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) in this century and be the end of human civilization as we've come to know it. 

    At this point because of the many probable temperatures being discussed, it is crucial to explain the global warming temperature-fed feedback loop. The hotter it gets, the more it amplifies and drives more intense global warming consequences, crossing more climate change tipping points and triggering more amplifying climate feedback loops. Then, these more intense global warming consequences, additional crossed climate tipping points, and additional triggered amplifying climate feedback loops cause the temperature to rise even higher, which starts the cycle all over again. The bad news is that once this cycle gets going, it goes faster and faster like a train with no breaks running down a hill. That's more details about why they call it runaway global warming.

    The uncontrollable continuous rise in average global temperature, which will cause mass starvation, death, and migration, will be due primarily to:

    1. the major global warming consequences will continue to intensify and cross-react as heat rises. 

    The following illustration will help you visualize how future global warming consequences will intensify separately and together as we cross more tipping points and global temperatures rise. Imagine all of these global warming consequences whirling around, colliding with, and amplifying each other because of the agitation and "boiling effect" of ever-rising heat. This motion is similar to how the rising heat under a steam cooker churns, whirls, and collides the boiling water inside the steam cooker faster and more violently. 

     

     

    As increasing heat boils our planet, just like boiling water in a pot, the above global warming consequences will intensify and increase in severity, frequency, and scale! (To learn about exactly how the escalating 20 worst global warming consequences will cause mass starvation, death, and migration as well as social, economic, and political chaos, click here.)

    2. more global warming consequences (listed above) will go into positive feedback loops as temperatures rise. Think of a positive feedback loop as a small stimulus that then amplifies a specific effect or consequence, causing it to get bigger and bigger. For example, if you hold a microphone too close to a music amplifier, there will be an irritating scratchy distortion of sound that "feeds back" to the amplifier getting louder and louder the longer the microphone is held closer and closer to the amplifier source. 

    3. our being unable to stop ourselves from crossing more global warming tipping points. Crossing more tipping points will again trigger other positive feedback loops and points of no return within the systems and subsystems of the global climate. It will also cause global warming tipping points to interact with each other cumulatively.

    4. our continuing to cross "points of no return" within the global warming tipping points processes. Tipping point processes have within them definite points of no return. Once a tipping point's point of no return is crossed, crossing that tipping point is all but inevitable. Once that occurs, things usually collapse quickly, and recovery is typically slow, complex, costly, or downright impossible.

     

     

    5. the accelerating heat-producing carbon and other greenhouse gas momentum (we will continue to add more fossil fuel burning carbon to the atmosphere every additional year (currently at the rate of about three carbon ppm per year.)

    6. profound human system inertia and numerous other human system maladaptation factors will make it difficult to fix this extinction emergency or recover from it. (Described in detail on this page.)

    Because of the preceding, we have no other rational alternative than to prevent crossing into the hazardous transitional carbon 425-450 ppm threshold range and tipping point. At our current carbon and other greenhouse gas atmospheric pollution rate, entering this range will, unfortunately, begin sometime around 2025 if we do not get very close to the correct and honest 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets.

    There is something we can always be sure of in this horrible emergency. No matter what and despite all of the challenges and painful tipping point outcomes that are coming, the single constant truth for the best possible climate outcome for humanity in this emergency is that the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use:

    a. the more people we will survive to carry on humanity, life, and our beautiful civilization, and

    b. future generations will suffer less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences.

    In the illustration below, you will see a red vertical line the "Must never pass, last chance battle line and range of carbon 425 to 450 ppm." As you can see, going over the carbon 425 ppm leads us to a very steep downward darker red slope toward our rapid extinction. (The illustration below also shows at what carbon ppm levels the six distinct phases of a Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown will occur (i.e., CS Phases 1-6 below.) After you complete the rest of this document, we strongly recommend that you review the detailed year-by-year global warming consequence timetables found in the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown. (As a reminder, the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown will be linked again at the bottom of this page.)

     

    page229image7870976

     

     

    In summary of the first extinction-triggering tipping point, here is what is most important to remember about a failure to get close to our 2025 reduction targets and going over the carbon 425-450 ppm extinction-triggering tipping point:

    1. Once we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, the frequency, severity, and scale of global warming consequences will go from gradual linear increases as they are now to exponential consequence increases! This exponential consequence explosion will begin within 3-9 years (2025-2031) as we cross this critical extinction-producing tipping point.

    Once again please see the most current blue Atmospheric CO2 carbon graph (on this page) to see how dangerously close we are to this critical carbon 425 - 450 ppm tipping point already. (As of April of 2022 we are at carbon 421 ppm.)

    2. After we also go over the carbon 425-450 ppm range, mass human extinction is assured and unavoidable. The mathematics and physics of atmospheric carbon and other greenhouse gases raising our temperature will climb exponentially after going over the carbon 425-450 ppm level. This additional greenhouse gas rise will drive our temperatures ever higher up to and through at least two more extinction-accelerating tipping points and into the many other global warming consequences described further below. 

    3. After we cross the 425-450 ppm threshold, stopping this ever-increasing global warming temperature momentum will be like trying to stop a gigantic boulder from rolling faster and faster down a hill that keeps getting steeper and steeper. 

    4. We are in an unacknowledged climate change extinction emergency, and so far, our governments are not even close to reaching the critical 2025 targets. 

    5. If we do not come close to the 2025 targets, we lose our last chance to stop ourselves from going over additional and far worse global warming tipping points. These extra tipping points will cause near-total to total human extinction and economic, political, and social chaos within our lifetimes!

    If we do not come close to the 2025 targets, our final window of opportunity to effectively control our destiny regarding preventing the other two near-total extinction-accelerating tipping points from being crossed closes. This unthinkable outcome is also why the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point level is our most crucial next tipping point to understand and respect. (More about what causes this near-complete loss of control of our global warming future will be explained in the following even worse climate tipping point sections below.)

    6. The beginning levels of runaway global warming was initiated when we went over the climate cliff and crossed carbon 386 ppm in 2015. We will fully enter the near-total extinction-level of runaway global warming and climate change when we cross the carbon 425-450 ppm threshold. This is the carbon level where we can no longer stop ourselves from crossing a cascade of more significant climate tipping points and amplifying carbon feedback loops.

    7. Mass human extinction will accelerate as we cross the 3° C level and pass beyond it.  Once we cross the 2° Celsius (the carbon 425-450 ppm level,) the inevitable mass extinction accelerating temperature levels of 3°, 4°, 5°, and even 6° Celsius all will be all but locked in! 

    At 4° C, life will be a living hell for survivors. Crossing the carbon 450 ppm level will eventually develop into an average global temperature increase of 6° Celsius (10.8° Fahrenheit) well before the end of this century and be the end of human civilization as we've come to know it.  

    8. In case you're still somehow thinking or believing technology will save us at the last minute, no new carbon removal technologies (what we call magical carbon sucking unicorns) will be able to save us in time. This carbon removal technology fails because even those who believe this technology might save us are projecting that they will not be scaled up to make a difference until sometime after 2050. This 2050 date is long after the damage is done and long after anything can be done for billions who will suffer and die! (Please click here if you still have any illusions about new carbon removal technology miraculously saving us at the last minute. The science there will help you understand that the only way out of this imminent extinction catastrophe is to radically reduce fossil fuel use globally to come close to the 2025 targets.)

    9. The only effective way to prevent our near-total extinction from the primary and secondary consequences of climate change is to get as close to the correct and honest 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.

    Additional thoughts on the critical importance of the carbon 425-450 ppm near-total extinction-triggering tipping point and the probable sequences of climate events as we approach and cross it

    Because we have ignored decades of climate warming, we are already deep into the climate change trajectory toward extinction and the collapse of civilization. This collapse outcome is highly likely because nine of the known global warming and climate change tipping points that regulate the climatic state of the planet have already been activated.

     

     

    Most of the above-activated tipping points can and will trigger abrupt and significant releases of carbon back into the atmosphere, such as the release of carbon dioxide and methane caused by the irreversible thawing of the Arctic permafrost. After the above global warming tipping points are crossed, additional warming would become self-sustaining due to both positive feedback loops within the climate system and the mutual interaction of these global warming tipping points. 

    It is best to think about the above nine interacting global warming tipping points within the climate system like a row of dominos. These climate system tipping points are so interconnected that knocking over the first couple of "dominos" will most likely lead to a cascade knocking over many, if not all, of them. Once the above global warming tipping point "dominos" lock into their falling cascade, we are already at a point of global and societal no return.

    It is not just us saying this:

    Because of these global warming tipping points and positive feedback loops, Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director emeritus and founder of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, believes that if we go much above 2° C, we will quickly get to 4° C anyway and, a 4° C increase would also spell the end of a tolerable human civilization.

    Johan Rockström, the head of one of Europe's leading research institutes, warned that in a 4°C warmer world, it would be "difficult to see how we could accommodate a billion people or even half of that. Not even a rich minority world survive with modern lifestyles in the post-4°C-warmer turbulent, conflict-ridden world". 

    Many other climate scientists have warned that once the climate warms 4 degrees C over our preindustrial average global temperature, human adaptation to these temperature levels will be all but impossible!

    Leading Stanford University biologists released new research recently showing species extinctions are accelerating in an unprecedented manner. The rapid loss of biodiversity is another likely and already occurring tipping point for the collapse of human civilization. (These are the same Stanford biologists who were first to warn us that we are already experiencing the sixth mass extinction on Earth.)

    please note that many climate researchers also believe that we entered into extinction-level runaway global warming long before we will hit carbon 425 ppm and even before we hit carbon 386 ppm. Like the NASA scientist James Hansen, who warned 40+ years ago about climate extinction, many climate researchers hold that global warming tipping points and amplifying positive climate feedback loops act to "stack up" on each other and magnify their combined adverse effects. They maintain that we entered into runaway global warming (because of the stacking effect) as soon as we crossed carbon 350 ppm, just as James Hansen predicted. 

    Soon we will lose control of the tipping points for the Amazon rainforest, the West Antarctic ice sheet, and the Greenland ice sheet in much less time than it's going to take us to get to any dubious and unenforceable global national net-zero emissions pledges. 

    There is an additional and crucial way to think about the race to reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets before we cross more of the extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points. Imagine that the captain on the Titanic suddenly sees the iceberg in front of him. To slow and steer the Titanic away from the iceberg, he needs at least 3 miles, but he is only 1 mile away from the iceberg. In this example, the titanic is already doomed when the captain notices the iceberg.

    This Titanic example is not much different than our current situation. We have already gone over the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff. We are doing very poorly toward reaching the last chance 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. We have wasted so much time over the previous decades ignoring valid scientific warnings; we have very little time remaining to "steer" away from extinction. 

    We already have a baked-in minimal 1.5 - 2 degrees C in average global temperature increase. We also have initiated the global climate tipping point cascade effect, which will quickly get us to 4°C and the collapse of a civilization in which no one would want to exist. This 4°C alone will rapidly take us to a far less habitable planet and climate regardless of any additional global fossil fuel reductions we might now make.

     

     

    In the image above, the unillustrated Planetary Threshold dividing line is the climate cliff previously mentioned of carbon 386 ppm. As one can see, once we crossed that carbon 386 ppm Planetary Threshold line, the stability of our climate rapidly collapses into an over-heating uninhabitable Earth!  

    Here are the most probable carbon feedback loops, carbon sink losses, points of no return, and tipping points to be crossed after we crossed the carbon 386 ppm climate cliff in 2015

    1. Decreased albedo from reduced snow cover and melting Arctic ice increasing the earth's average global temperature,

    2. Increased sea ice and glacier melt resulting in additional sea-level rise,

    3. Increased atmospheric water vapor increases resulting in more extreme weather,

    4. Increased permafrost and tundra heating, releasing more carbon and methane, resulting in more heat, disease epidemics, and possible pandemics. This tundra heating speeds up the process of more positive feedback loops and crossing more points of no return and tipping points

    (Please note that rapidly melting tundra permafrost is also because the northernmost areas are warming twice as fast as the rest of the world.) This permafrost melting also can cause local and global pandemics caused by ancient viruses and bacteria being released from the permafrost. They have already had localized anthrax and smallpox outbreaks in Siberia because of the bacteria and viruses released from the decomposition of ancient frozen animals from the melting permafrost and tundra. Unfortunately, the Siberian residents had no existing immunity to these diseases and were not prepared to deal with these outbreaks due to a lack of available vaccines. 

    5. Decreased carbon capture from the world's forests as temperatures rise and forests go from removing carbon from the atmosphere to carbon-neutral (no longer removing carbon from the atmosphere.) Carbon neutral is the state that occurs just before overheated over-stressed forests next begin to release carbon back into the atmosphere!

    (Click here to learn more about each item listed above.)

    Here are the most likely keystone tipping points to be crossed after we crossed the carbon 386 climate cliff in 2015

    There is an extinction tipping point area that is the most likely first candidate to accelerate the beginning of the end of humanity. It is the increased melting of summer and year-round arctic polar ice due to global warming. 

    It will genuinely have profound effects not only on worldwide weather stability but, more importantly, on significantly lowering global crop yields and significantly increasing global crop failures. Eventually, this will cause accelerating and massive global starvation, which will then also destabilize national economics, politics, and society.

    In the summer, when the Arctic ice melts, there is less cooling of all growing season areas affected anywhere by arctic weather. Therefore, the more polar ice melts each year, the less cooling and the more heat and drought during the critical growing season in arctic-affected areas. 

    Food crops are more sensitive to heat when there are droughts and, they are more sensitive to heat, rain bombs, and cold spells when they are just beginning to grow. Unfortunately, because more ice is melting in the Arctic ocean almost every summer and staying melted longer in the year, we are losing more and more critical cooling for our vital food crops. As a result, we are losing stable growing seasons. 

    The five major food grains are the largest source of the world's food supply. They are corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, and sorghum. 

    All of these grains have upper and lower temperature limits. Most of them cannot survive more than ten days during their growing season over 100° Fahrenheit. This is particularly true if this heat comes early in their growing season or when their soils are drought dry.  

    Because of the continually increasing loss of the cooling effect on growing regions below the Arctic because of the constantly diminishing Arctic ice, the number of growing season days with temperatures over 100° will continue increasing steadily as more and more Arctic ice melts and remains melted longer throughout the year. (We estimate within a decade or so, we could have as many as 30 days of 100-degree heat during the growing season in many critical crop-growing areas.)

    Because melting Arctic ice also affects and disrupts the jet stream and ocean currents like the Gulf Stream, you will also have extreme and unseasonable cold spells appearing during the prime crop growing seasons worldwide. These cold spells will also further reduce food yields and produce more crop failures during the fragile growing season.

    This again means that the world will continue to experience more and larger crop reductions and failures as more polar ice melts and stays melted longer. Corn is one of the most significant food staples for humanity, and it is also one of the most sensitive crops to increasing 100 degrees plus temperatures and drought.

    The following is from Wikipedia:

    "Since 1979, the minimum annual area of sea ice in the Arctic has dropped by about 40%, as measured each September. From sea ice models and recent satellite images, we can expect that an Arctic sea ice-free summer will come before 2020. Models that best match historical trends project a nearly ice-free Arctic in the summer by the 2030s. However, these models do tend to underestimate the rate of sea ice loss since 2007." (If you would like to see a video of how more polar ice is melting each summer as the years go by, click here for this NASA video.)

    The increasing melting of arctic polar ice is a clear and glaring warning sign of increasing global warming and future severe reductions in future crop yields, as well as dangerous increases in future crop failures. These crop failures will also mean higher prices and ever-increasing food scarcity, and increasing global starvation.

    This Arctic crop stability problem is not something far-off in the future. On the contrary, it is already happening in many world areas. 

    It is also already causing large human migrations. The expanding and increasing polar ice melting is a primary "canary in the coal mine" for increasing future mass starvation not way off in 2100 as we have been told, but now and in years the decade to follow.

    Already in the growing belt of the United States, we are seeing increased and record-breaking heat, droughts, rain bombs, Derechos, and other extreme unseasonal weather that directly affects crop yields and crop failures in the most vulnerable areas. This pattern of greater crop yield reductions and crop failures will continue to increase as long as more polar ice disappears and the Arctic remains relatively ice-free into longer and longer summers. As the process of massive crop reductions and failures expand and continues, mass starvation will begin to destabilize all of our other economic, social, and political systems. 

    Reduced polar ice also reduces the albedo effect because white snow or ice reflects heat away from the earth and into the atmosphere, keeping the world cooler. However, as more Arctic polar ice is melted, the darker polar oceans absorb the heat and then heat up more, which once again causes more global warming.

    As global temperatures continue rising, the time frames in which we will be crossing more of the tipping points listed above will get shorter. But that will not be the only significant effect of the melting Arctic ice due to global warming. Paradoxically, according to new studies, we will also have more extreme cold and heavier snows during the US winters because of melting Arctic ice. 

    In general, you can count on that increased crop yield reductions and crop failures will increasingly occur because of arctic ice melt, increased heat, increased droughts, increased cold spells, increased rain bombs, and extreme weather storms. This will make it more and more impossible for modern agriculture and the major food crops to survive throughout their current growing seasons. There are estimates that crop yield reductions and crop failures will average 5 to 10% or more for each degree Fahrenheit that the average global temperature rises. This will continue until the planet becomes so warm that too many days of the growing season will be at 100° or more. This will make successfully growing the world's five major grains all but impossible.

    The carbon 386 ppm climate cliff and its 1.5 C temperature increase threshold was the last threshold for excluding humanity's mass extinction threat by mid-century. Staying below 1.5 C was also the final threshold where we could have prevented a significant acceleration in crossing other more dangerous global warming tipping points. 

    One can see from the preceding that while we all do our best to encourage our governments to meet the 2025 targets, it is also now wise to start a personal global warming emergency backup plan and "Plan B!"

    New technology will not be able to save us in time!

    Many people falsely believe that geoengineering, carbon capture, or some other new miracle technology will ride in like a knight on a white horse at the last minute to save humanity from the natural consequences of its decades of previous bad climate decisions, actions, inactions, and mistakes. 

    In the media, we regularly hear about these new technologies that will save for climate change.  Directly or indirectly these new technologies promise that somehow we can still continue living our lives over-consuming, polluting, and burning fossil fuels exactly as we are now.

    The bad news is that these promised new technologies are false solutions that suffer from one or more of the following deadly problems:

    1. Most have not yet been proven to work even at a small scale.

    2. They have not been adequately tested at a sufficient scale for any unintended side effects, which could create greater problems than the problems they are designed to solve.

    3. They are prohibitively costly.

    4. They burn so much fossil fuel trying to remove atmospheric carbon or geo-engineer the atmosphere that they realistically cancel out their benefit. And finally,

    5. None of the current "new technology" solutions can come even close to globally scaling up in time (over the required next three years) to get close to, or compensate for missing the 2025 global targets, to prevent humanity's mass to near-total extinction. 

    (Click here to read more about why this fairy tale carbon capture technology is not going to happen or will be "too little too late" to save us.)

    We are cautionary and warn people about the pitfalls of techno-optimism and the engineer's limited and mechanistic view of complex adaptive systems (the climate, biological and social systems, etc.). But, it does not mean we are anti-technology.

    Our position on the use of technology is best described by the term Appropriate TechnologyAppropriate technology is a movement encompassing technological choice and application that is small-scale, affordable by locals, decentralizedlabor-intensiveenergy-efficientenvironmentally sustainable, and locally autonomous. Unfortunately, the miracle "new technology" solutions proposed for climate change are far from the best appropriate technology principles.

    Allowing an atmospheric carbon 425-450 ppm level ever to be reached is humanity playing with fire and betting the house (its survival) on both being insanely lucky and on nonexistent or insufficient new remedial technologies

    Humanity thrived for almost 1,000,000 years when the historical interglacial high atmospheric carbon levels remained within the carbon range of 270-280 ppm. 

    Decades ago, climate scientists warned us that when we crossed the atmospheric carbon 350 ppm level, humanity would be unsafe from horrible consequences and even extinction, and we were on the way to runaway global warming

    Measuring the most dangerous greenhouse gases of atmospheric carbon [CO2,] methane [C4,] and nitrous dioxide [No2] are the best ways to measure the increasing threat level of global heating consequences. These measurements are also one of the best ways to predict future global heating and temperature levels. 

    In the illustration below, on the left vertical axis are atmospheric measuring levels for both carbon and nitrous dioxide in parts per million [ppm.] On the right vertical axis, you see the measuring level for atmospheric methane in parts per billion [ppb.] Across the bottom of the illustration is the last 2,000+ years. 

    The red, blue, and black lines moving from left to right across the illustration tell the painful story of human history and the pollution of our atmosphere. The illustration clearly shows what happened when humanity began the fossil fuel-powered industrial revolution in the late 1700s to early 1800s.

     

     

    Here is a bit more about our atmospheric carbon history and its meaning. Many climate researchers believe we are already in the beginning stages of runaway global warming and have been so for quite a while. (Think of runaway global warming like a train rolling down a steep hill with no brakes.)

    What most people do not understand about what helps cause runaway global warming within the climate's systems and subsystems is that crossed climate tipping points will create a higher new global temperature that also will trigger more climate tipping points and more amplifying climate feedback loops. By themselves alone, more triggered climate tipping points and climate feedback loops will increase heating within the climate system, producing more severe consequences. Each add-on new tipping point and feedback loop helps create a growing "stack" of overlapping temperature-increasing mechanisms fueling runaway global warming! 

    At some point, triggering the next climate tipping point or feedback loop will initiate an unstoppable domino effect, which will trigger even more tipping points and amplify more feedback loops at faster and faster rates. Once this level is reached, the tipping point and feedback loop "stacking" effect ensure that a self-sustaining cycle of feedback loops that will repeatedly create the next higher level of temperatures and more severe consequences. 

    The stacking effect was predicted decades ago by one of the world's most respected NASA climate scientists, James Hansen. Hansen said that if the atmospheric CO2 level reached and stayed at only the carbon 385 ppm level and was allowed to sit there for many years, it alone could kick off a climate tipping point and feedback loop stacking effect. He warned that this stacking effect would lead to an unstoppable chain reaction to higher and higher temperatures (hence runaway global warming.) 

    So here is the tough love. Humanity thrived successfully for millennia when atmospheric carbon was at the 270 to 280 ppm-level. We went over the climate cliff in 2015 when we hit carbon 386 ppm level. Within the next 2-3 years, we will pass the carbon 425 ppm level. 

    We would have stayed safe from runaway global warming if we ONLY had stayed below the carbon 350 ppm level. According to James Hansen, since we have passed the carbon 386 ppm in 2015, we have already triggered the stacking effect. We already have activated the crossing of ever more climate tipping points and feedback loops. 

    Brace yourself. As of April of 2022, we were at carbon 421 ppm. From the preceding, one can see that this carbon 421 level is far, far beyond any reasonable and safe atmospheric carbon level and far into the stacking effect of runaway global warming. 

    At the carbon 421 ppm level, our atmospheric carbon level is about 155% greater than the humanity-thriving level of carbon 270 ppm. One has to wonder, how much higher does this percentage of atmospheric carbon have to rise beyond the last safe level of carbon 350 ppm, before we collectively finally realize we are in a grave extinction danger?

    Allowing an atmospheric carbon level of 425-450 ppm ever to be reached is humanity playing with fire and betting the house (near-total extinction) on being both insanely lucky and on nonexistent or insufficient new greenhouse gas remedial technologies.

    No matter how you look at it, we are at a completely immoral and insane risk level to the survivability of humanity. We are already living beyond the highest possible danger zone.

    If we are very, very fortunate, and it is not already too late, we may have another 3 to 9 years before crossing over the 425-450 ppm threshold and into the full-on runaway global warming where global heating and the extinction emergency goes out of our control for centuries, but we indeed do not have any more time than that. 

    We are at our absolute last chance, 3 to 9-year warning! 

    Either we make the necessary and radical 2025 global fossil fuel reductions, or we face near-total extinction that survivors may never be able to reverse for centuries to thousands of years. 

    On the other hand, if we miss this last three to nine-year opportunity to prevent our extinction, we can at least hope to slow it down to have more time to get ourselves ready for near-total extinction.

    "We have delayed facing and fixing the climate change emergency for decades, and it has now reached an insane climate change extinction risk level. This extinction risk level is so high that it is comparable to humanity playing Russian roulette with a gun where every chamber of the revolver has a bullet in it, and every bullet is an extinction-accelerating tipping point or catastrophic amplifying climate feedback loop." Lawrence Wollersheim

    What we do in the next three to nine years in getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets will determine the survival and future of much of humanity. And, if we do not fix this, it will also be many of the lives of Earth's plants, animals that will suffer our same horrible fate. 

    If our governments fail to act, few, if any, will survive. Even fewer individuals would want to exist in the over-heated world we would leave them.

    If you have any doubts about what amplifying climate feedback loops or climate tipping points are, or their importance to your future, a new video has come out called Earth Emergency. It takes you through the most dangerous climate feedbacks and tipping points in an easy-to-understand way. This public broadcasting (PBS) video also makes the key points that we are making on this website. Click here to see this "don't miss it" super simple video.

    Please share these ten critical climate facts everywhere! Unfortunately, at best, we have only 3 to 9 more years to fix this climate nightmare.

    (Special note 4.22.2022: There is a lively ongoing conflict between various climate change researchers. Some believe we are already in a state of runaway global warming, and there is nothing we can do about it at our current greenhouse gas levels. This group believes we are already headed to near-total to total human extinction. 

    Another group of climate researchers believes that we still may be able to prevent near-total extinction (but not avoid mass extinction) if we can do the nearly impossible task of cutting global fossil fuel use by 75% to at least get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets discussed here.

    Other climate researchers using the grossly underestimated and distorted IPCC calculations believe we have until about 2030- 2040 to make much smaller global fossil fuel reductions and still save humanity. 

    Our website reflects the ongoing conflicts within researcher positional differences. As an organization, we currently believe that the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century is unavoidable. However, we still may be able to prevent near-total extinction if we can do the near-impossible task of cutting global fossil fuel use by close to 75% to meet the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets discussed here. 

    We believe the probability of getting even close to the 2025 reduction targets is extremely low. Therefore, we also have created an action program that compensates for this probable failure to prevent climate change from reaching severe extinction levels. We hope that this clarification helps our readers better understand our current position and our Job One action plan.)

    Reviewing the most misunderstood climate danger because it means our survival or extinction

    What not coming close to the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets means, and what is at stake:

    1. If we fail, we will not be able to even slow down the unavoidable extinction of half or more of humanity by mid-century

    2. Only by coming very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets do we have any reasonable chance of preventing an even worse, near-total extinction event from ending humanity and civilization occurring from 2050- 2080 or sooner.

    3. Because near-total extinction is now associated with crossing the atmospheric carbon threshold of carbon 425 - 450 ppm and the eventual higher temperatures produced when we cross that threshold, we only have about 3 to about 9 more years to be able to prevent our near-total extinction. (Carbon is currently accumulating in the atmosphere at about three carbon ppm per year.) 

    4. Unfortunately, we also have two additional super-dangerous extinction-accelerating tipping points after the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point threshold. (Please go to this page and go down to the second extinction tipping point. It will inform you of what happens after we cross the carbon 450 ppm threshold.

    5. After crossing the carbon 425-450 level, the following three extinction-producing tipping points are FAR worse than what you have read above! they will create both extinction level and Venus affect level runaway global warming.

    Be sure to read about the other three extinction accelerating global heating tipping points by clicking here!


  • Earth Day, April 22, Focused on Our Accelerating Climate Change Emergency

    Earth Day 2022's single biggest challenge is our accelerating climate change emergency. It is the greatest disruptor of the 21st century. 

    This Earth Day you can do two easy things to lower the threat to our precious Earth and make a real difference. Do these actions and you will forward the well-being of the Earth in two concrete and practical ways:

    1. Get current and read the latest summary of the ten most critical facts concerning climate change. Click here to read this current State of the Climate Change Emergency.

    2. Click here to help educate far more people about the climate change emergency and help this all-volunteer non-profit organization.

    Read more

  • commented on How to deal with climate change anxiety or anger from a non-scientific perspective 2022-05-09 15:13:19 -0700
    Dear John,

    We cosponsored a climate anxiety event a year ago that did not have a spiritual element. Since then the climate anxiety problem has got worse and many individuals of a spiritual nature get benefit form approaches that incorporate a spiritual perspective. Things are so bad right now with the climate that we decided to co-sponsor this event because so many people needed this additional approach to handle enough of their climate anxiety in order to become climate activists. The people putting this on are progressive and this is not a evangelical or fundamentalist approach by any stretch of the imagination.
    The Job One Support team

  • Special Promotional Climate Related Ebook list and Membership Offer

    The five free ebooks and the 1-year free membership to the members-only sections of this website (a combined $50 value) are part of a collaborative and supportive arrangement that we have made with the organization that has given you this gift offer.

    Here is a list of the available five ebooks to choose from:

    "In Our Hands" by Wilford H Welch is a $9.99 ebook. In Our Hands is the result of extensive research into climate science and the use of systems thinking and driving forces analysis. Using these methods, Wilford makes sense of the climate crisis and what we all need to do to address it. He lays out two futures, one looking back from 2050 and the actions we took to save ourselves; the other, entitled "The Road to Ruin," shows how the world collapsed into chaos by mid-century due to our failure to take effective actions. Here are some reviews of just updated great book on Amazon.

     

    "Climageddon: the Climate Change and Global Warming Survival Kit" by Lawrence Wollersheim is an $8.95 value. The Climageddon book will show you the scientific evidence on how bad global warming really is, how bad it will get, and how soon the worst of the now unavoidable consequences of global warming will destabilize you, your family, business, or nation. Climageddon describes the 20 worst global warming consequences. It also lays out the 11 most critical global warming tipping points. These tipping points are striking terror in the minds and hearts of everyone involved in short-term, mid-range, and long-range essential planning. Understanding the 11 global warming tipping points is critical because crossing a few more of them, left unchecked, will initiate the end of humanity and civilization over the next several decades. The systemic analysis found within Climageddon also shows you how to stay ahead of the coming global warming-related financial market unpredictability and drops. These will occur naturally because of the escalating consequences of continually rising temperatures on food crops, related businesses, and global political stability. Climageddon has scores of great reviews on Amazon. You can download it in one of the three most popular ebook reader formats. 

     

    For those who do not like reading complex climate change scientific research and still want to be entertained and educated, we have the ebook version of "On Vestige Way" by David Spielberg (a $9.00 ebook value.) It is an emotion-packed CLI-Fi (climate fiction) novel about how global warming affects the future and fate of Millennials, Generation Z, and corporations. It also describes a massive rearrangement of the political alliances we take for granted. It is so hard to put down that you will be missing work and sleep wondering what happens next to the story's heroes and heroines struggling with the genuine global heating future the younger generations will face. Yet, it is one of the most scientifically accurate CLI-FI books on the market. You can read the Amazon reviews on this book here.

     

    Climate and Ecological Delusions and Contradictions that Will Soon End Humanity" by Michael Mielke. This $8.95 value ebook explains and elaborates in great detail on the carbon capture technology delusion and the many other global crises we face, such as resource Overshoot—a necessary read and update on new technology delusions that will not save us in time.

     

    You will also receive a free ebook copy of "Collapse 2020, Vol 1: Fall of the First Global Civilization" by Bruce Nappi. This $8.95 value ebook lays out a strong case on why we must prepare for the first-ever climate change-aggravated, global collapse coming within mere decades. Collapse 2020 digs into the major chaos of today's world: climate change, liberal-conservative polarization, gridlock in governments, and massive social injustice. (PDF format only.)

    And, there are several other important additional gifts included:

    1. You also will get the one-year Job One for Humanity membership a $9.00 value. You will have full members-only access to nonpublic climate and global heating website information as described below:

    critical prediction information on how, when, and where the escalating global warming emergency will affect:

    local, regional, and national real estate values and finances,

    stock market values, specifically corporations whose stocks and bonds will be most affected as the global warming emergency worsens,

    commodity prices as regionalized crops and other commodities fail because of increased heat or other global warming consequences, as well as which food prices will rise the fastest, etc.,

    2. increased political conflict or instability probabilities, particularly relating to a nation's regionalized specific global warming consequences.

    3. first alerts and early warnings about the coming global warming catastrophes,

    4. exclusive global warming emergency preparation and adaptation information for your family, home, and business.

    5. well-researched global warming family and business migration options for the sparse global warming safer zones (For those of you who live in global warming high-risk areas.)

    The members-only area of our website will provide critical details on how and when the consequences of the global warming emergency can affect your investments, financial transactions, real estate, and even your individual or business physical survival. 

    2. You will also receive one year of online email support to help you prepare for the worsening global heating consequences. This online support will help you get through all parts of the Job One for Humanity Global Heating Resilience Plan. This global heating plan will help you reduce your fossil fuel use, become more sustainable, and keep you motivated and demanding your government acts before it is too late!

    You also will be able to ask global heating plan questions and share your successes, knowledge, and experiences via this new online support system. 


  • The Expanded Explanations of the 10 Critical Climate Change and Global Heating Emergency Facts

    Introduction

    The expanded ten facts below are intended for individuals who want to understand the in-depth climate science and analysis behind the validity of the ten most critical facts about climate change and global heating. Below you will find materials and links that are based upon tipping point theory, systems theory, and were developed using the newly developed analysis principles of dialectical meta-systemic theory.

    To get the most from the expanded ten climate facts below, we also recommend following sublinks within the links wherever you are unsure of some concept. The materials below also assume you have an excellent working understanding of the causes of the global heating we are currently experiencing. 

    At the end of this 10 facts expanded explanation and documentation links section, you will find a link to a comprehensive plan for what you can do to help slow down climate change and global heating as well as improve many of the other 11 major global crises we currently face. You will also find a link to information on how to handle any negative emotions all this troubling climate and global heating information may have stirred up within you.

    You also will find a link to a long list of the surprising benefits we will experience as we work toward resolving this climate challenge and evolutionary opportunity.

    (Please note: If you have arrived at this page without reading the ten most critical climate facts found on this page, please go back and read this page first. The expanded ten facts page below will not read easily without understanding the short form 10 facts page first.)

    Here are the Ten Critical Climate Change and Global heating Facts Expanded with Documentation and Analysis

    The first five climate facts below are what we need to know. The next three are what we need to do. And the tenth fact is why we are continuing to fail to resolve the climate change and global heating emergency. The following expanded ten most critical climate facts are also meant to correct the grossly underestimated and highly politicized climate change and global heating summary reports regularly released by the IPCC.

     

     

    Fact 1: Beginning about 2025-2031, the severity, frequency, and scale of climate change and global heating consequences will rise exponentially

    This means the climate consequences of heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, flooding, Derechos, rain bombs, extreme wind, dust, wildfire smoke storms, and unseasonable cold spells will become far more severe, occur much more frequently, and cover larger and larger areas.

    For a detailed explanation of why climate change and human-caused global heating will go exponential over the next 3 to 9 years, from 2025 through 2031, please click here.

    Here are the detailed 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets explained. We must get close to them to prevent mass extinction. Please keep in mind that if we fail to come close to these 2025 targets, it will take centuries to millennia for the planet to recover.

    If you have any doubts about what the stacking of amplifying climate feedback loops means or what climate tipping points are, or why they will help cause an exponential rise in climate consequeces, or their importance to your future, a new video has come out called Earth Emergency. It takes you through the most dangerous climate feedbacks and tipping points in an easy-to-understand way. This public broadcasting (PBS) video also makes many of the key points that we are making on this website. Click here to see this "don't miss it" super simple video.

    Our increase in climate consequence severity, frequency, and scale is also because we have already crossed into the beginning stages of runaway global heating. If you imagined runaway global heating like a train without brakes rolling down a mountain that is getting steeper and steeper, you would have a good idea about the seriousness of our climate consequences soon rising exponentially.

    (When reviewing the illustration discriptions below, start at the bottom right, then go up the consequences.)

     

    Chapter_2_Consequence_Tornado.png

     

    Because climate change and global heating consequences will soon begin rising exponentially, you may have only another 3-9 more years of relative global heating stability, depending upon where you live. (Beginning around 2025, if you are in a high-risk global heating area, the global warming consequences that you are already experiencing will start to become far worse than you are experiencing currently.)

     

     

    Fact 2: The correct global fossil fuel reduction targets require the national governments in ALL developed countries, including China and India, to compel their citizens to reduce all their personal and business fossil fuel use by about 75% by 2025.

    (Undeveloped countries have considerably lower 2025 targets due to climate justice factors.)

     

     

    Click here and see a summary of the many actions that our governments must immediately enact for us to survive.

    Click here to see a new program that still might work to get our government to act in time.

    We have squandered four valuable decades when we could have gradually and easily reduced our global fossil fuel use to avoid the current global heating catastrophe. Instead, our governments have ignored more than 40 years of global warming warnings by our best climate scientists. Because we squandered those four decades, to save ourselves from the extinction of half of humanity by mid-century, global fossil fuel reductions today will have to be radical, painful, and immediate to make up for many decades of lost time.

    Click here to see our 28 significant challenges to getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel targets or for any other major global fossil fuel reduction targets. 

     

    Fact 3: Missing the required 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets significantly means we will go over the first of four extinction-accelerating climate change and global heating tipping points. Additionally, missing the 2025 targets will trigger many amplifying climate feedback loops.

    If we do not get close to the 2025 targets, we lose our last chance to reverse the climate damage we have done for centuries to thousands of years. 

    Click here to discover how it happens and what it means when we go over the first extinction-accelerating tipping point. This will also take you through the three following extinction-accelerating climate tipping points leading to total human extinction.

    Click here to learn about the 11 biggest climate tipping points and tipping point theory on how climate tipping points will create unfathomable chaos and unpredictability for our futures.

    Click here to see the "don't miss it" Earth Emergency video. that illustrates our deadly amplifying climate feedback dillema in wonderful detail.  

     

     

     

     

    Fact 4: Our global society has not taken fixing global heating seriously for over many decades. The many amplifying climate feedbacks and crossed tipping point consequences of this delay and failure to act will cause the unavoidable deaths of about half of humanity by mid-century.

    Unfortunately, over those many wasted decades, global heating's consequences have worsened so much that it is now too late to prevent the extinction of about half of humanity (about 4-5 billion people) by mid-century. If we are very lucky, we still have about 3-9 years left to get close to the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. 

    The IPCC's grossly underestimated climate consequences and timeframes have denied the public realizing the appropriate and proper urgency and seriousness of the global heating emergency. Denied this critical understanding, the public is stillbroadly unaware of the actual climate dangers and timeframes essential to demand that its governments immediately fix this accelerating emergency. 

    During that time, global heating's consequences have worsened so much that, unfortunately, it is now too late to prevent the extinction of about half of humanity (about 4-5 billion people) by mid-century.

    If we are very lucky, we still have about 3-9 years left to get close to the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and slow down and delay the exrtinction process. 

    Click here to discover the horrible details on how we created our own runaway global warming dilemma and this climate nightmare ensuring the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century.

    Learn how this climate-driven extinction process will unfold in over 80 primary and secondary climate-related consequence steps here.

    If you did not see them previously, here are the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets explained in detail. We must get close to them to prevent near-total extinction.

    If you have not seen this video already, click here to see the "don't miss it" Earth Emergency video. that illustrates our deadly amplifying climate feedback dillema in wonderful detail.  

    Click here to read about what we call Professor Garrett's Dilemma. It describes the physics and mathematics behind how about half of humanity will will unavoidably die if we do make the critical and correct fossil fuel reductions now needed to save the other half of humanity. Garret's corrected fossil fuel reduction calculations also were based on decades of our climate inaction. 

     

     

     

     

    Fact 5: Getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets also saves humanity from an even worse near-total extinction process (about 8-9 billion people) occurring by about 2070-2080 or before. 

    Learn how this climate-driven extinction process will unfold in over 80 primary and secondary climate-related consequence steps here.

    After reviewing the first link above, if necessary, please re-read the chart below from the bottom up. The previous link will vividly illuminate what happens when we do not get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and as shown in the illustration above.

    Please see this recent scientific summary of respected climate scientists' current climate change and global heating risks.

    If you did not see them previously, here are the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets explained, which we must get close to prevent mass extinction.

    Click here to read about what we call Professor Garrett's Dilemma. It describes the physics and mathematics behind how at this late stage of global heating and inaction, about half of humanity will unavoidably die if we make the critical and correct fossil fuel reductions now needed to save the other half of humanity. Garret's corrected fossil fuel reduction calculations also were based on decades of our climate inaction. 

     

    Read the chart below from the bottom up. This will help you visualize what happens when we do not get close to the 2025 targets.

     

     

    Why all is not hopeless: while a global heating consequence-driven near-total extinction is probable, a total extinction is not realistic

    Understanding the bitter differences between a global heating-driven mass extinction, a near-total extinction event, and a total extinction event is essential. This section will clarify those differences and restore a rational, balanced, and scientifically appropriate hope for our climate future.

    The different levels of global heating-driven extinction are defined as:

    1. A global heating-driven mass human extinction is already here and is currently unavoidable. It is unavoidable because of our 60 years of climate inaction and denial. We have been so grossly ineffective in slowing and reversing global heating for so long that about half of the human population will die by mid-century. 
    2. A global heating-driven near-total human extinction is a scenario where as much as 90-99% of humanity could go extinct before we slow and reverse the current runaway global heating. (Near-total extinction is partially described in the first three extinction-accelerating tipping points on this page and then on this page.)
    3. A global heating-driven total human extinction will occur if we allow carbon levels in the atmosphere to rise to 800 to 1700 parts per million (ppm). At those levels, we risk our atmosphere being pulled out into space and everything that depends upon oxygen suffocating and going entirely extinct at those carbon ppm levels. 

    Fortunately, long before we reach those extreme carbon 800-1700 atmospheric carbon ppm levels, Mother Nature will step in with her very tough medicine. Her excruciating intervention will result in close to a near-total extinction, but not total extinction! Moreover, mother Nature's tough medicine will intensify many of the primary and secondary consequences of global heating (described in detail on this page. These consequences will escalate in severity, frequency, and scale as global heating rises.)

    At this point, you may be wondering how Mother Nature will "allow" a near-total human extinction event while preventing us from going totally extinct? It is a twist of dialectical evolutionary fate and great news for everyone who has worried that there is no climate hope left for humanity and our civilization. 

    Here is how and why a near-total extinction event is our most probable fate (unless we successfully get close to the radical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets where this dire fate would be significantly lessened.)

    1. Directly or indirectly, Mother Nature's dependable "wheel of death" is already killing off tens of millions. To power this wheel of death, she simply intensifies existing climate and global heating-related consequences. 
    2. In perfect lockstep with our rising global heating, Mother Nature will continue ratcheting-up her ever-intensifying consequences in lockstep with our increasing global heating to kill off hundreds of millions and then billions of us. This massive kill-off will continue unabated until there are so few of us left that humanity is simply no longer capable of raising or maintaining global temperatures by burning so much fossil fuel. 
    3. The critical point at which Mother Nature will stop killing us off is when she has killed enough of us so that, at least, global fossil fuel use goes down to the point that no additional greenhouse gases are no longer being added to the atmosphere. 
    4. The critical point where Mother Nature stops managing rising greenhouse gases (carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide) by killing us off will likely be well into the second half of the 21st century. (Unless our governments mass mobilize and come close to the 2025 targets.)
    5. Unfortunately, Mother Nature may keep killing us off with more intense consequences well beyond what she needs to do to stop the global mass burning of fossil fuels by the remaining population. And finally,
    6. One also cannot discount human counter-actions to runaway global heating. Although far less effective and not solutions that will save us by themselves or even collectively, they will contribute to a more significant portion of the human population ultimately surviving and suffering less. Human counter-actions are increasing natural carbon sequestration, expanding green energy generation, and conservation. These human counter-actions will be far less effective than getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets or Mother Nature's medicine of killing off most of the human population to radically cut the burning of fossil fuels.

    Thanks primarily to the compensating counter-actions of Mother Nature, global heating will eventually level off, and there can be a realistic, balanced and appropriate hope some part of humanity will go on. But, unfortunately, only after enough of us die, and we are no longer capable of burning anywhere near the current amounts of fossil fuels that we are burning now. Nature's fossil fuel use "kill switch" will help ensure that humanity in its entirety will never go completely extinct. 

    Unfortunately, the bad news is that whoever survives will face centuries to thousands of years of suffering before Mother Nature can fully rebalance and get atmospheric carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide down to where our global temperature goes back to a level better suited for optimal human existence and reproduction.

    Mother Nature's "Great Die-off" processes for saving humanity from itself as a fail-safe is genuinely excellent news. The bad news is how little of humanity she will likely save. 

    If we fail to radically reduce current global fossil fuel use to get close to the 2025 global targets, we will be lucky to have 1% to 10% of humanity still living in 2080 to 2100. This very high die-off is because global heating will keep rising for decades even after Mother Nature has killed off enough to stop adding more carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide levels to our atmosphere. (Global heating will continue to rise for another 2-3 decades after we stop burning fossil fuel levels because of pre-existing global heating momentum within the climate system.) 

    As you can see, all is not hopeless, and a global heating-driven total extinction is not the likely outcome of runaway global heating.

    We believe that some individuals who do not adequately understand nature's total extinction protection mechanism are promoting an inevitable climate change total extinction future. They do not realize that almost every action in evolution has a dialectical, often equal, and opposite counter-action. Some of these "Doomers" have gone as far as to predict that current climate science proves humanity will be extinct within ten years of 2020. 

    Current climate research and dialectical meta-systemic analysis do not support these wild predictions of a climate-driven total human extinction in 10, 20, 30, or even 40 years. Moreover, these wild predictions of total human extinction are invalid because of the ongoing and continual counter-acting compensatory consequence reactions of Mother Nature to rising greenhouse gases as described above. 

    Please do not buy into the doomer movement's "all is already lost" predictions and distortions. We have time left to act, but we need everyone immediately rowing in the same direction at full strength to minimize future human extinction losses. 

    Click here to see what we must do to save ourselves and the future.

    To see the time we have left, go to number nine below.

     

    The three "what we need to do" facts

     

    FACT 6: To save most of humanity from extinction before it's impossible, we must execute history's largest government-enforced mass mobilization of resources. At this 11th hour, only mass mobilization will ensure we get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. If our governments fail to get us close to the 2025 targets, our focus must shift to minimizing fatalities for as long as possible. 

    Our governments must enact an immediate mass mobilization to slow down mass extinction and prevent near-total extinction.

    Here is what we will likely have to do to get our governments to finally act.

     

     

     

    Fact 7: The belief that some miracle "new technology" (like carbon capture) will somehow appear soon or just before the last possible moment to save us is not valid. 

    Click here for spellbinding details about why the carbon capture technology will not happen or be "too little too late" to save us. It is a perfect example of the bountiful, wishful, and mechanistic "new technology" thinking surrounding and obscuring the actual scope, scale, and difficulty of the runaway global heating extinction emergency.

    Additionally, these promised miracle "new technologies" are false solutions that steal an absolute and real urgency away from the climate emergency, and they also suffer from one or more of the following deadly problems:

    1. None of the current miracle "new technology" climate solutions can come even close to globally scaling up in time (over the next three years) to compensate for our significantly missing the 2025 global targets. 

    2. Most have not yet been proven to work (even at a small scale.)

    3. They have not been adequately tested at a sufficiently large enough scale for unintended side effects. Any unknown and unintended side effects could create even greater problems than the problems they were designed to solve.

    4. They are prohibitively costly.

    5. They burn so much fossil fuel trying to remove atmospheric carbon or geo-engineer the planet or atmosphere that their massive fossil fule use eliminates their benefits. And finally,

    These miracle "new technologies" are falsely promising us that we can continue our lives of over-consuming, polluting, and burning fossil fuels as we are now. Nothing could be further from the truth.

     

    We are cautionary and warn people about the pitfalls of techno-optimism and the engineer's limited and mechanistic view of complex adaptive systems (the climate, biological and social systems, etc.). But, it does not mean we are anti-technology.

    Our position on the use of technology is best described by the term Appropriate TechnologyAppropriate technology is a movement encompassing technological choice and application that is small-scale, affordable by locals, decentralizedlabor-intensiveenergy-efficientenvironmentally sustainable, and locally autonomous. Unfortunately, the miracle "new technology" solutions proposed for climate change are far from the best appropriate technology principles.

     

    Fact 8: We are currently so far behind in getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and we have so many other major global crises that wise individuals and businesses have already started their emergency Plan B survival preparation and adaptation plans.

    In addition to our accelerating global heating emergency, we have also failed miserably to manage most of these other 11 critical global challenges to our severe detriment. The amplifying, accelerating, and interacting of these 12 major global crises with each other will soon begin causing a widespread accelerated or abrupt collapse of the critical food production, economic, ecological, and social systems first in weaker nations, but eventually even in the strongest. 

    Below, you see an illustration of the decades-long complete and utter failure of the IPCC and our governments in doing anything effective to reduce global fossil fuel-related greenhouse gases, which have caused our accelerating global heating. The graph below shows the three most dangerous greenhouse gasses in atmospheric parts per billion (ppb).

     

     

     

    Now is the time for wise individuals and businesses to create their own Plan B emergency backup survival plans. Plan B is simply an emergency preparation, adaptation, and survival plan. It might even include migration or relocation to safer areas away from the worst of accelerating global heating and the worsening 11 other major global threats

     

     

     

    It is no longer reasonable to rely solely upon our limited-resourced governments to save you, your family, or your business from the rapidly accelerating global heating extinction emergency interacting with our 11 other major global crises.

    With your Plan B firmly in place, you can keep working to help slow down global heating and achieve the best possible outcomesafter you have prepared your family and business for its worst possible outcomes. And, if we eventually do manage to get through this extinction emergency, you will have preserved your future opportunity to create a better life from the painful lessons you (and all of us) will be learning.

    Click here to see the Job One for Humanity Plan B. Plan B also includes saving and salvaging as much of our global civilization as possible so that it will be there for us in any post-collapse future.)

    (Click here to see the many "best possible" remaining positive outcomes if our governments mass mobilize and act in time.)

    Even if our governments fail to act and we fail to get even close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, most of us still have about 3-9 more years of relative climate stability, particularly within the global heating safer areas. But, if you have prepared well for the coming global heating emergency and live in one of the safer global heating regions, you still could be lucky and live another 30 to 50 years or more. If you have a good Plan B, you will have time to put your lives in order, enjoy life, and make life as meaningful as possible.

     

    Fact 9: Fact 10: Our ability to work together to fix climate change and global heating before we experience masive global catastrophe is far from guaranteed.

    Therefore, every individual and business needs to know the most accurate timeframes for the coming climate change and global heating consequences. 

    Understanding climate consequence timeframes will allow you adequate time to create the best possible climate outcomes while simultaneously preparing for the worst possible climate outcomes.

    Keep in mind that this timetable significantly depends on your current location's safety and global heating risk level. If you are in a higher-risk area, the timeframes are shorter. 

    Keep that in mind while you are preparing and adapting. Keep pushing our governments to reduce global fossil fuel use so that some of humanity will be able to survive mass, near-total extinction even though the odds are poor.

    The higher global heating risk areas generally will be between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south. The highest risks will be between the 30th parallel north and the 30th parallel south.

    Most global heating-related deaths will occur within the poor and undeveloped countries between the 40th parallel north and the 4Oth parallel south. In the image below, the red line marks the 40th parallel north. The yellow line marks the 40th parallel south.

     

     

     

    Here are the critical survival and safer location-relevant deadlines and timeframes to know for your personal and business survival:

    a. The next few years' deadlines: (From now until the end of 2025.) At this time, it is appropriate to admit it is all but impossible for us to meet the total 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets fully. But we still do have enough time left to slow down and delay (but not avoid) a mid-century extinction event for about half of humanity. We do this by getting close to the 2025 targets. Thus, although we have passed the point of preventing the die-off of about half of humanity, we still can maintain some level of control of our global warming future. And most importantly, we can still prevent near-total to total human extinction by also getting very close to the 2025 targets.

    This imminent extinction danger means we have to educate the world about the four extinction-accelerating global warming tipping point deadlines. We also need to prepare survival provisions and create safe and sustainable community cooperatives or sanctuaries. (See this Plan B emergency plan page. Plan B discusses how to prepare for what is coming in the safest locations and describes the least safe places to ride out this emergency.)

    b. The 5-10-year deadline: (This assumes we will miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and did not get close to them.) From 2025 to about 2030, global heating consequences will steadily worsen in a rising but considerably steeper, nearly exponential progression. More people will wisely migrate to safer areas. Millions more in high-risk climate areas will die because of climate-related food shortages and other global heating-related catastrophes. 

    If you have prepared, adapted, and, if applicable, are in a global heating safer location before 2025 to as late as 2030, and you have a good Plan B in place, depending upon your location, relative stability and security for your family and business are probable until about 2030 to maybe as long as 2040. (See this Plan B emergency plan page, which discusses how to prepare in the safest locations and what are the least safe places to ride out the runaway global heating extinction emergency.)

    c. The 10-15 year deadline: (This assumes we will miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and did not get close to the 2025 targets.) After 2030-2035 many other climate, human, ecological, political, and economic tipping points will be crossed due to accelerating climate change consequences and global heating amplifying the consequences of most of these 11 other critical global challenges.

    The stability and security of even the safest and best prepared global heating safer locations will lessen, and it will become increasingly challenging to survive. Those individuals in supportive cooperatives or sustainable communities should be significantly safer and better adapted than those who are not. (See this Plan B emergency plan page, which discusses how to prepare in the safest locations and what are the least safe places to ride out the cimate change extinction emergency.)

    d. The 15-25 year deadline: (This assumes we will miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, and we did not get even close to meeting these targets.) Beginning around 2035-2045, the frequency, severity, and size of the 20 worst global warming consequences will continue rising in an exponential progression. As a result, stability and security for even the safer, best prepared global warming locations, cooperatives, and sustainable communities will become far more complex and dangerous. (See this Plan B emergency plan page, which discusses how to prepare in the safest locations and what are the least safe places to ride out the runaway global heating extinction emergency.)

    e. The 25-30-year deadline:(This assumes we will miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, and at least we got close to them somewhere over this period.) By mid-century, extinction for half of humanity will still be unavoidableFrom about 2040 to 2050 will be the riskiest period to survive for most of humanity. Generally, things will be better in safer global warming locations, special cooperatives, and sustainable communities. But even there, survival is far from guaranteed without the highest preparation, adaptation, and cooperation levels. (See this Plan B emergency plan page, which discusses how to prepare in the safest locations and what are the least safe places to ride out the runaway global heating extinction emergency.)

    f. The 50-year plus deadline:(This assumes we will miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, and unfortunately, we did not even get close to them.) In this case, we will face the worst consequences of runaway global warming. We will be heading toward the beginning of the runaway greenhouse gas effect, which ripped the atmosphere off Venus. Because of the runaway global warming reality and not getting close to the 2025 reduction targets, humanity will, unfortunately, face a near-total extinction event beginning as soon as 2070-2080 or sooner. We call this the Climageddon Scenario.

    Now that you know the critical timeframes, it is time to work toward the best possible climate outcomes while still preparing for the worst possible climate outcomes. Wise individuals or businesses will work for the best and prepare for the worst:

    a. by making the necessary personal and business 75% fossil fuel use reductions to do their part to get us close to the 2025 global targets. (Part two of the Job One Plan will help you do this.) 

    b. by demanding their national politicians enforce the reduction of global fossil fuel use to get us close to the 2025 targets. (This action step is mainly for individuals who can directly influence their national politicians. (See Part three of the Job One Plan to see what our governments must do.) 

    c. by making the necessary emergency preparations and adaptations to build their climate change resilience. This resilience will be essential to manage the worst of the coming climate consequences successfully. (If you are fortunate, well prepared, and in a safer global heating region, you could survive 30-50 more years. (Part one of the Job One Plan will help you do this.) 

    d. by making new climate change decisions concerning what they want to do about the accelerating climate consequences. This might include re-planing their lives or re-adjusting their priorities to focus on the meaningful and important things they may have delayed or failed to do.

     

    Fact 10: For decades, our climate change and global heating emergency has been made far more difficult to resolve because of the ongoing underestimation, politicization, and distortion of climate science by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC of the United Nations.) 

    In addition to what was said on the shorter version of this fact that you recently have read, the IPCC's grossly underestimated climate consequences and timeframe reports deny the public feeling the appropriate urgency and importance regarding the global heating emergency. Cleverly denied the urgency and importance by the IPCC's underestimation, the public has never known the real climate perils to demand that its governments immediately fix the accelerating global heating emergency. 

    In the links IPCC problem related links below, you will learn precisely how the IPCC constructs and calculates its climate consequence risk scenarios, timetables, and recommended climate change remedies. Unfortunately, you will also discover many troubling climate change calculation reporting issues and administrative problems within the IPCC.

    The documentation links below further seriously question the reliability and risk analysis usefulness for any of the IPCC's current summary consequence prediction scenarios, timeframes, and climate remedies.

     

     

    Click here to see precisely how the IPCC "cooked the books" and grossly skewed current IPCC global fossil fuel reduction calculations to be far lower than they should be. (They did this by including the unproven and non-existent "carbon sucking unicorn" technology in their projections.) Unfortunately, this distortion of global carbon reduction calculations allowed the major fossil fuel producing nations and fossil-fuel industries to continue to do "business as usual." 

    Click here to see the IPCC's Perfect Day problem with its computer climate modeling. This issue will significantly lower the accuracy of all IPCC's consequence predictions, timetables, and fossil fuel reduction remedies.

    Click here to see the eleven key climate change and global heating tipping points that have been almost entirely excluded from the IPCC calculations for coming consequence time frames and how much fossil fuel use we must reduce each year globally. 

    Click here to see the four key reasons why the IPCC's 26 global climate conferences have failed to produce results or legitimate global fossil fuel reduction targets.

     

     

    Click here to see the IPCC's huge atmospheric methane calculation problem. This error again produces a considerable drop in the reliability and usefulness of the IPCC climate prediction work.

    Click here to see the latest 2022 IPCC climate change and global heating summary report on the critical climate sensitivity error. Because of this ongoing climate sensitivity error, the IPCC's newest climate consequence predictions, timeframes, and remedial actions will be underestimated by 25% or more. (This 25% does not include the effect of the other IPCC errors described in the links just above.) 

    Click here to understand the long-term history of the IPCC underestimating the consequences, timeframes, and the needed global fossil fuel reduction targets by as much as 20-40% or more. This page will take you through the process for the creation of IPCC climate reports and it is rather shocking how the climae science gets distorted by the IPPC administrators in their final approval process. 

    Click here to see a new study showing that the IPCC does not include many critical climate system factors in its computer climate modeling. Those missing factors equal wrong and distorted results. This Feb 2022 paper strongly refutes the absurd IPCC claim that the Arctic sea ice melt-decline is reversible. It is not reversible, and that is a monster problem for humanity's weather, seasonal climate, and future.

    Because our governments rely upon the IPCC information, our governments will continue to grossly underestimate (or hide) the real and accelerating consequences and timeframes of global heating. 

    All of the above linked IPCC errors and politicization problems mean that the IPCC is an unreliable partner for truthful and accurate global heating information. As another profound underestimation error example, in addition to those in the above links, the IPCC regularly asserts global heating can still be limited to 1.5C. Yet, according to James Hansen, one of the world's most respected climate scientists, 1.5C will hit us by 2030. 

    The climate consequence predictions, timeframes, and remedial action information of the IPCC should no longer be trusted. As a good general operating principle, whenever you hear an IPCC administrator politicized summary statement on a climate consequence, treat it as 20-40% worse than they are saying and arriving 20- 40% sooner than they are saying. (See the expanded fact section for the many reasons this is appropriate.) 

    It is now time to find new, more reliable sources for climate change and global heating prediction and management information. Click here to find out who that should be. 

    The Ten Facts Summary

    We are already in a runaway global heating extinction emergency. Unfortunately, we can no longer save the billions who will unavoidably suffer and die before mid-century because for six decades our governments have steadfastly denied or hidden the facts about the extinction dangers of burning fossil fuels and global heating. 

    The good news is that we may still have time to save at least some of of humanity, but only if:

    1. our governments immediately mobilize and they get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets (a 75% total reduction) and

    2. we execute the Plan B for the Runaway Global Heating Extinction Emergency. (If you begin your runaway global heating Plan B soon, there should still be time left to save yourself, your loved ones, and your business depending on your current location.)

    We must work toward achieving the best possible outcomes while simultaneously preparing for the worst possible outcomes.

    Any denial of the ten painful global heating facts above, like our government's global heating denial over the last 60 years, will only worsen and accelerate the many consequences of the global heating extinction emergency. (Afteralll, isn't denial what you add to a problem to make it last longer and hurt more?)

    Our most realistic hope left to get our goverments to mass mobilize and act is for the billions of Generation X, Y, and Z members not to go quietly into the night of mass and near-total extinction. They must go out into the streets and demand our governments mobilize and act today. They must no longer rely on older generations who have allowed our global heating and climate nightmare to worsen for more than six decades.

    Once one profoundly understands the suffering and death ahead of us (as described above), it will be hard not to become another runaway global heating extinction educator and activist.

     

     

    Your NEXT step,

    Some individuals experience upsetting emotions as they become aware of the reality and the dangers of our current runaway global heating extinction emergency. Unfortunately, this upset is quite normal. 

    Our staff and management have experienced varying and repeated levels of this same global heating distress. As a result, we were forced to learn how to lessen and manage those stresses. If you click here or on the image below, it will take you to one of the most viewed pages on our website, which will help you deal with these climate-related emotional stresses.

     

     

     

    NEXT,

    Click the image below and you can review the four most common decisions people make concerning the runaway global heating extinction emergency

     


     

    NEXT, 

    You can do something about climate change and global heating! Click the image below and it will take you to the Job One for Humanity, Climate, Global Heating, and Global Crises Resilience Plan.

    "No program that claims to have a solution to climate change and global heating can not be called legitimate unless it is designed and focused around knowing when a global heating-driven near-total extinction event will probably occur, how it will occur, and what must be done when to prevent that outcome. The Job One for Humanity four-part program relentlessly follows this critical path and deadline policy." Lawrence Wollersheim

     

     

     

    NEXT,

     

    To Receive Free Climate Change & Global Warming Information from Us, Click The Sign Up Image Below.

    NEXT,

    If the 10 facts above have you upset, click here. There are many benefits to working together to fix climate change and global heating.

     

     

    And Finally,

    Click here to see the 10 most misunderstood facts about climate change and global heating.

     

    About the Climate Research and Analysis at Job One For Humanity

    At Job One for Humanity, our volunteer climate analysts and researchers provide a "big picture" holistic view of the inter-connected and inter-dependent climate systems creating our current global heating emergency. Using the principles of system theory and dialectical metasystemic thinking applied to the climate as a complex adaptive system, we analyze recent climate change research for errors, omissions, and unrecognized patterns which could affect current climate consequences, timeframes, or recommended remedies. We intensely analyze the climate's multiple related systems and subsystems.

    Unlike many other climate change think tanks, we do provide prioritized, critical-path, and deadline-driven solutions to the climate change emergency. These solutions are based on accurate global fossil fuel reduction targets and the most dangerous climate change tipping point deadlines we currently face. 

    Job One for Humanity actively exposes the current intense politicization of climate science. This intense politicization of climate science by the media, our governments, and the UN's IPCC act to forward a gross underestimation of our actual climate consequences, timeframes, remedies, and emergency. Unexpectedly, our independent climate analysis has also turned us into reluctant whistleblowers exposing how most of today's public climate data has been distorted to serve the hidden financial interests of those who gain most from the ongoing global use of fossil fuels.

    Our Advisory Board


  • The World has been Blindsided by the IPCC's "Perfect Day" Climate Change Computer Modeling Problems

    The world's leading authority on climate change, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC,] is not accurately telling our governments what they need to know to save us from climate extinction because of...

    the IPCC's "Perfect Day" problem.

    Our governments are in serious climate risk analysis trouble because they rely upon the IPCC's "authoritative" climate consequence scenario projections and remedies. Moreover, the world's governments, military, intelligence agencies, hedge funds, investment banks (like Goldman Sachs,) stock and commodity markets, foundations, think tanks, national and international reserve banks, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Economic Forum all use the same IPCC climate research, predictions, and remedies for their climate risk analysis.

    All of the previously mentioned entities are being dangerously weakened by what is known as the IPCC's climate computer modeling "Perfect Day" problem. 

    The Perfect Day problem and how it works 

    The IPCC uses computer modeling to predict future climate consequences and calculate how much fossil fuel we must reduce globally to keep ourselves safe. Every 3 to 5 years, the IPCC creates 4-7 updated best to worst climate prediction scenarios and what we must do to prevent them from occurring. 

    The governments, organizations, corporations, and individuals that rely upon these IPCC climate scenarios to create their internal climate risk analyses are being told by the IPCC and their governments these climate scenarios are reasonably accurate projections of probable future climate conditions. But, unfortunately, the truth is they are far from it.

    The IPCC's climate computer models actually reflect "Perfect Day" climate scenarios far more than they reflect more probable climate scenarios. The IPCC's climate computer models are plagued with this "Perfect Day" problem because they seldom include most of the following critical climate modeling factors. These are the critical climate-related but often missing factors that regularly and routinely occur both within and between the complex adaptive systems within our climate's multiple systems and subsystems. 

    The IPPC's climate computer models and multiple predictive scenarios still fail to capture:

    a. many of the interconnected or interdependent primary and secondary tipping points within and between the climate system and its subsystems. 

    b. most of the many powerful self-reinforcing feedback loops within and between the climate systems and their subsystems. 

    c. most of the non-linear cause and effect relationships within and between the climate systems and their subsystems. (Non-linear cause and effect relationships are a regular aspect of the behavior of complex adaptive systems.)

    d. far too many of the cause and effect interconnections and critical interdependencies within and between the climate system and its subsystems. And,

    e. many of the critical points of no return within and between the climate systems and their subsystems. (These crucial points of no return help signal and predict coming tipping points and most often dangerous system crashes and collapses that occur after a tipping point is crossed.)

    The result of omitting so many to most of the essential a-e factors above from climate computer models is that what you get is more like a Perfect Day prediction scenario. This Perfect Day climate scenario is where either no or far too few of the many, many a-e factors are accounted for within the computer-modeled climate calculations and predictions. 

    The crucial thing to know about items a - e above is that they embrace thousands of essential regularly unaccounted-for or under-accounted-for climate factors that are also at play in creating reliable and probable climate predictions and risk assessments. Moreover, many of the climate factors listed in a-e above are so powerful that just omitting a single one can radically alter the trajectory and usefulness of any of the IPCC's current climate prediction scenarios or suggested remedies.

    For example, suppose the IPCC has predicted that the average global temperature will rise to 2 degrees Celcius above pre-industrial levels by 2040 in one of their multiple prediction scenarios. Now factor in that they did not add to that computer model essential tipping points, feedback loops, or other non-linear cause and effect factors within the climate system and its subsystems. In that case, this a-e omission could quickly move their predicted average global temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius by 2040 (with all of its associated risks and consequences) to far more than 2 degrees Celsius far sooner than 2040!  

    Worse yet, the world's political, corporate and the leaders of the other organizations mentioned earlier do not know about the Perfect day issue, which is that the IPCC predictions and their remedial climate recommendations do not reliably computer model the contexts, relationships, processes, and many ongoing transformations within the interacting climate, human and biological systems, and subsystems. 

    This "Perfect Day" problem means that the REAL climate risk and threat probabilities for humanity's climate future are being grossly underestimated! Unfortunately, this also means that our governments, largest corporations, and the leaders of the other organizations mentioned earlier are ALL currently operating on grossly inadequate climate risk assessments. As a result, within these organizations, our current climate condition's actual risk and threat levels and its fundamental uncertainties are far higher than what they understand and what we are being told. Consequently, we are currently not managing or preparing for our actual climate risks and uncertainties. 

    At Job One, we estimate that if you take all of the factors in a-e above (and all the IPCC's many other political, prediction modeling, and summary report problems described in the additional links at the end of this page), we should treat the IPCC's current predictions and climate remedies as being underestimated on the average by about 20-40%. This means we are underestimating both the severity and frequency of climate consequences and when these climate consequences will arrive by about 20-40%. 

    If one makes these 20-40% reasonable allowances for non-perfect day climate items in a-e above and the other IPPC problems linked at the end of this page, the world's governments and corporations should be panicking.

    On the other hand, if they were making appropriate allowances for the many a-e missing climate factors and risks, the corporations listed previously would demand our governments immediately declare an international climate extinction emergency. They would also demand that our governments cooperate globally to enforce the fossil fuel reductions needed to at least save some small portion of humanity. (If you would like to see the horrific chain of climate consequences with adjusted timelines when making allowances for the IPPC's problems, click here.)

    But, here is the really bad news about the climate system factors listed in a-e above. As the climate continues to heat, the climate and its subsystems will become more interactive, agitated, and unstable, and you will see many more of the a-e climate system factors occurring causing greater and greater climate disruption. 

    Imagine these a-e climate system factors interacting within the climate and churning and boiling like the water in a pressure cooker as you turn up the heat. Unfortunately, as our temperatures continue to rise, the a-e climate factors above will also occur at ever faster rates. This escalating rise in temperature will also create significantly more future climate predictive uncertainty. This will then lessen our ability to develop helpful risk analysis as the climate worsens.

    Knowing about this inherent dilemma of diminishing predictive power as temperatures rise helps let us know that we must prevent the climate system from EVER crossing this first extinction-triggering tipping point. If we cross this extinction-triggering tipping point, global warming will move into a runaway mode where reliable climate consequence predictions and timeframes will be all but impossible to construct.  

    Because of the Perfect Day problem and so much missing from the IPCC's computer climate modeling, any organization that uses the IPCC's data must immediately reevaluate their climate risks and adjust them at least, 20-40% to the negative. With this new modeling problem information, these organizations will then be able to create a far more realistic climate risk analysis for their specific operations and conditions. 

    The biggest danger of the IPCC Perfect Day problem

    The real climate change risk and threat level to all entities listed above is far beyond what they believe and are telling themselves, their citizens, or their clients. This serious risk analysis problem is not just dangerous. It will not only be very costly over time, but it also will likely turn into a serious legal liability for those entities as their citizens and clients discover the climate risk levels they were advised about were grossly underestimated. 

    The Perfect Day problem is also crippling our ability to find and use the correct collective climate change management strategies needed to save humanity itself. Because of the IPCC's Perfect Day problem, we are not dealing with the actual climate change risks appropriately and rationally.

    As a result, we are operating on incorrect climate change risk and threat assessments far below what they genuinely are. And, that will be the final recipe for a soon-arriving collective mass extinction.

    The climate change risk analysis the world is operating on from the IPCC makes the world think it still has many decades left to fix the climate change emergency and prevent extinction when at best, it only has about another 3-9 years. Yet, the IPCC continues to sell the world their grossly incomplete "Perfect Day" climate change prediction and remedy computer models and scenarios as reliable and probable representations of our climate future when they are grossly inadequate and underestimated!

    We believe that when the entities listed above redo their climate risk analysis using the information on this website and other websites critical of IPCC climate work, and which also includes the climate factors listed in a -e above, they will discover the following:

    1. We are currently at a level of extreme climate change risk. We passed high climate risk decades ago.
    2. When we cross the atmospheric carbon threshold of carbon 425 to 450 parts per million (ppm), we have entered the climate risk zone of unavoidable extinction for much of humanity by 2050. 
    3.  When we cross the atmospheric carbon threshold of carbon 450 to 500 ppm, we have entered the climate risk zone of near-total to total human extinction beginning as soon as 2070 or sooner.

     

    As you can see from the illustration above, for the last 65 years, atmospheric carbon levels have been getting worse even faster. As a result, we are about 3-9 years away from moving into the climate risk zone of unavoidable extinction for much of humanity by 2050.

    Building a plan, a risk analysis, or a climate scenario on everything going perfectly has always been the perfect plan for failure. Unfortunately, because of the above, our world is in a far deeper climate change extinction emergency than it believes it is in.

    And finally, there is another way to grasp the dire danger of the IPCC's Perfect Day problem. Ask yourself, when was the last time everything went perfectly according to your projected perfect plan?

    What can you do about the Perfect Day problem which is drastically impeding our progress on executing effective climate solutions?

    1. If you have any contacts with power at any of the organizations listed on this page, you can email them a copy of this article. It would help if you also referred them to this page. This page makes considerably better (but still not perfect) allowances for the IPCC's Perfect Day problem by more realistically adjusting climate consequence scenarios and timeframes to include and make allowances for more of the above a-e factors.

    Here are the key organizations to reach out to so they can update their internal critical climate risk analysis, so they become a better reflection of today's actual climate reality. You will be doing them a favor! Unfortunately, operating on the IPCC's flawed climate prediction scenarios for their internal climate risk analysis will eventually embarrass them. It could also expose them to severe legal liability for incorrect actions or incorrect advice.

    This risk updating process may also assist them in doing what is logical and necessary to help better manage our climate extinction emergency. There may be other entities you will think of as well: 

    World governments, the world's military, intelligence agencies, hedge funds, investment banks (like Goldman Sachs,) stock and commodity markets, foundations, think tanks, national and international reserve banks, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Economic Forum and corporations dealing with essential commodities and infrastructure needed for the future.

    2. Get started with the Job One for Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan.

    Other critical IPCC consequence prediction and timetable problems that rapidly need to be adjusted for in future government and corporate climate risk analysis 

    1. Click here to see the four most crucial extinction-triggering tipping points that must be factored into every adjusted future climate risk analysis.

    2. Click here to see how the accelerating primary and secondary consequences of climate change interact with and worsen humanity's 11 other major global crises.

    3. Click here to see the risk analysis adjusted 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and why we must get close to a 75% reduction in total global fossil fuel use (oil, natural gas, coal, etc.) by 2025, not the far, far less net-zero emission levels they have pledged by 2050 or 2040! (In the technical notes at the bottom of the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction specification page, you will see each calculation and compensation for the various factors that make up the required correct global fossil fuel reduction numbers.)

    4. In addition to the "Perfect Day" problem previously described, below you will find essential additional links on the checkered history of the IPCC climate consequence predictions and research problems. These links will provide a valuable context for the relationships, processes, and climate research transformations going on within the IPPC.

    You will learn precisely how the IPCC constructs and calculates its climate consequence risk scenarios and recommended climate change remedies. Unfortunately, you also will discover that there are many other serious calculation and process problems going on within the IPCC in addition to the Perfect Day problem. The additional problems below further call into question the reliability and risk analysis usefulness of the IPCC's current prediction scenarios and climate remedies.

    (Please note: In the links below, we are not attacking or criticizing any of the thousands of hard-working and honest volunteer scientists worldwide who submit their climate research to the IPCC. Instead, we call attention to the IPCC's administrative processes and politicized leadership. They are the ones who alter and contort the real climate science received by these scientists into 5-7 year climate summary reports. Before they are released, these 5-7 year summary reports must get the line-by-line sign-off of the IPCC's major funders, the fossil fuel producing nations, and the fossil fuel-dependent nations.)

    Click here to understand the long-term history of the IPCC underestimating the consequences, timeframes, and the needed global fossil fuel reduction targets by as much as 20-40% or more.

    Click here to see precisely how the IPCC "cooked the books" and grossly skewed the current IPCC global fossil fuel reduction calculations by including unproven and non-existent "carbon sucking unicorn" technology into their projections. 

    Click here to see the eleven key climate change tipping points that have been mostly excluded from the IPCC calculations on how much fossil fuel use we must reduce each year globally. 

    Click here to see the four key reasons why the IPCC's 26 global climate conferences have failed to produce results or legitimate global fossil fuel reduction targets.

    Click here to see the latest 2022 IPCC climate change summary report on the critical climate sensitivity error. Because of only this ongoing climate sensitivity error, the IPCC's newest climate consequence predictions, timeframes, and remedial action information will be underestimated by as much as 25% or more. (This 25% does not include the effect of the other IPCC errors described in the links just above.) 

    Click here to see a new study showing that the IPCC does not include many critical climate system factors in its computer climate modeling. Those missing factors equal wrong and distorted results. This Feb 2022 paper strongly refutes the absurd IPCC claim that the Arctic sea ice melt-decline is reversible. It is not reversible, and that is a monster problem for humanity's weather, seasonal climate, and future!

    All of the above linked decades of IPCC error, calculation, and polarization problems mean that the IPCC is an unreliable partner for truthful and accurate climate change information. Their climate consequence predictions, timeframes, and remedial action information are grossly underestimated by 25 - 50 %+ and possibly more!

    It is time to find new more reliable sources for climate change prediction and management information.  


  • World's Authority on Climate Change Gives a Very Scary "Now or Never" New Report, But...

    The world's climate authority in its new "Now or Never" report is still grossly underestimating how bad climate consequences, timeframes, and the needed global fossil fuel reductions must be --- by a shocking 20-40% or more!

    Read more

  • published Our March Climate Change Newsletter in Blog 2022-03-31 13:33:33 -0700

    Our March Climate Change Newsletter Has More than the Usual Climate Change Surprises

    Knowing what will happen ahead of time with our climate allows you to either plan for it or wisely get out of the way before it harms you. This month's newsletter is about assisting you to see what is coming with the climate without denial or spin.

    Read more

  • @JobOneForHuman1 tweeted link to Special Membership Page. 2022-03-21 12:17:36 -0700

    Special 1 Year Free Membership and Downloading Page for 5 Free Climate Change-Related Ebooks

    You have been given this downloading access link to receive five free climate-related ebooks (a $50 value) and a 1-year free membership to access climate change information available only in the members-only sections of this website. 

    The five free ebooks and the one-year member access are part of a collaborative and supportive arrangement that we have made with the individual or organization that has referred you to this downloading access link. 

    After you sign the form below, we will immediately email you the instructions for downloading your five free climate change-related ebooks. In addition, you also will be able to access the members-only sections of the Job One for Humanity website.

    You have only a five-day timed access period to download your five free ebooks starting the date you sign below.

    Please do not share this downloading access link with anyone else! You were awarded this gift because you are an executive, member, subscriber, or visitor of an organization friendly to Job One for Humanity's critical climate change educational mission.

    Sign up

  • Why major intelligence agencies must re-do the UN IPCC's climate change calculations, consequence predictions, deadlines, and global fossil fuel reduction requirements?

    Only world's intelligence agencies may now be able to stop humanity from committing collective climate change suicide. Find out why and how much time is left?

    Read more

  • The 2022 IPCC climate summary report problem

    The newly released 2022 IPCC climate change report is terrifying. But, unfortunately, the IPCC is still not disclosing that our climate future is about twice as bad as they are willing to admit!

    Here is the crucial corrective information you need to reach a higher climate fact accuracy level than that found in the IPCC's newest climate report.

    Their statement is the A statement. Ours is the B statement. The B statement corrects or adds to the IPCC's latest report to a higher level of climate accuracy.

    Example 1:

    a.) The report shows that extreme weather events linked to climate change like floods and heatwaves are hitting humans and other species much harder than previous assessments indicated. 

    b.) This is due to the IPCC's past assessments being underestimated by as much as 20-40+ percent due to a myriad of IPPC politicization and calculation error issues as discussed in the documentation links on this page.

    Example 2:

    a.) The IPCC reports spell out how the world must take ambitious climate action within this decade to keep warming to within 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures. That requires decreasing carbon pollution by 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030 and reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

    b.) The truth is we must reduce total global fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025 to prevent the extinction of half of humanity by mid-century. If we are lucky enough to do that, we might keep the average global temperature under a 1.9C to 2.5C increase.

    Example 3: (Every coastal city worldwide should take notice and start preparing!)

    a.) The IPPC predicts about a 1-foot global sea-level rise by 2050.

    b.) By 2050, global sea levels will rise by 2-3 feet and by as much as 7-9+feet by 2100.

    Example 4:

    a.) The IPCC says that humans and nature are being pushed beyond their abilities to adapt. Still, there remains a brief window of opportunity to avoid the very worst of climate change.

    b.) That is true, but the critical information they omit is that loss of our ability to adapt will happen within the next 3-9 years because our last window of opportunity to control our climate futures will also close within the next 3-9 years!

    Example 5:

    a.) The IPCC also says that many of the impacts of global warming are now simply "irreversible." 

    b.) That is true. But, once again, the IPCC fails to tell us that because we have squandered four decades when we should have been steadily cutting global fossil fuel use, the die-off of half of humanity by mid-century is now unavoidable --- no matter what we do!

    Example 6:

    a.) Over 40% of the world's population is "highly vulnerable" to climate change.

    b.) Within the next 3-9 years, over 70% of the world's population will be experiencing an exponential explosion of climate consequences, for which there is grossly insufficient preparation or resilience. 

    Here are documentation links to the IPCC's underestimation and other errors and issues

    The immediate survival of humanity is at stake. We can no longer rely upon the IPPC's climate calculations to survive. (Please note: In the links below, we are not attacking or criticizing any of the thousands of hard-working and honest volunteer scientists worldwide who submit their climate research to the IPCC. Instead, we call attention to the IPCC's administrative processes and politicized leadership. They are the ones who alter and contort the real climate science received by these scientists into 5-7 year climate summary reports. Before they are released, these 5-7 year summary reports must get the line-by-line sign-off of the IPCC's major funders, the fossil fuel producing nations, and the fossil fuel-dependent nations.)

    Click here to understand the long-term history of the IPCC underestimating the consequences, timeframes, and the needed global fossil fuel reduction targets by as much as 20-40% or more.

    Click here to see precisely how the IPCC literally "cooked the books" and grossly skewed the current IPCC global fossil fuel reduction calculations far lower than they should be by including unproven and non-existent "carbon sucking unicorn" technology into their projections. This corruption and falsification of the global carbon reduction calculations allowed the major fossil fuel producing nations and fossil-fuel industries to continue to do "business as usual." 

    Click here to see the IPCC's Perfect Day problem with its computer climate modeling. This alone will significantly lower the accuracy of all of the IPCC's consequence predictions, timetables, and fossil fuel reduction remedies.

    Click here to see the eleven key climate change tipping points that have been almost entirely excluded from the IPCC calculations for how much fossil fuel use we must reduce each year globally. 

    Click here to see the four key reasons why the IPCC's 26 global climate conferences have failed to produce results or legitimate global fossil fuel reduction targets.

    Click here to see the IPCC's huge atmospheric methane calculation problem. This again produces a huge drop in the reliability and usefulness of the IPCC climate prediction and remedy work.

    Click here to see the latest 2022 IPCC climate change summary report on the critical climate sensitivity error. Because of only this ongoing climate sensitivity error, the IPCC's newest climate consequence predictions, timeframes, and remedial action information will be underestimated by as much as 25% or more. (This 25% does not include the effect of the other IPCC errors described in the links just above.) 

    Click here to see a new study showing that the IPCC does not include many critical climate system factors in its computer climate modeling. Those missing factors equal wrong and distorted results. This Feb 2022 paper strongly refutes the absurd IPCC claim that the Arctic sea ice melt-decline is reversible. It is not reversible, and that is a monster problem for humanity's weather, seasonal climate, and future!

    All of the above linked decades of IPCC error, calculation, and polarization problems mean that the IPCC is an unreliable partner for truthful and accurate climate change information. Their climate consequence predictions, timeframes, and remedial action information are grossly underestimated by 25 - 50 %+ and possibly more!

    What you can do about the climate emergency?

    Click here and select the action plan that is best for your situation and resources.

    Click here to sign the climate change emergency petition!

     


  • The New 2022 IPCC climate report still grossly underestimates how bad climate change is going to get---and the IPCC says the future will be absolutely horrible!

    The newly released 2022 IPCC climate change report is terrifying. But, unfortunately, the IPCC is still not disclosing that our climate future is about twice as bad as they are willing to admit!

    Read more

  • The IPCC's Big Climate Sensitivity Error raising more doubts about a survivable future!

    For decades the recognized world's leading authority on climate change, UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC) has been plagued by climate change calculation and politicization problems. Here is its latest!

     

     

    Job one for Humanity Editor's Forward

    The IPCC just released its latest 2022 climate report. No matter how bad this new 2022 climate change report seems, it is still grossly underestimated!

    The IPCC's history of climate change calculation problems and other errors includes:

    a. the politicization of climate science, 

    b. severe errors in their calculations and assumptions, and 

    c. serious computer modeling omissions.

    Items a, b, and c above all result in the gross underestimation of current climate change consequences, timetables, and remedies. The new article below is about another serious IPCC climate change calculation error. It is called the IPCC climate sensitivity error.

    Climate sensitivity is a critical measurement in climate science and it is used as a mathematical constant in the various formulas the IPCC uses for many of its climate calculations and predictions. Climate sensitivity measures how much Earth's surface will cool or warm after a specified factor causes a change in its climate system, such as how much it will heat for a doubling in the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. 

    Making sure one uses the correct climate sensitivity in climate computer models is critical. If you get this sensitivity mathematical constant number wrong, all risk assessment and climate planning based on that incorrect climate sensitivity constant level will be wrong and dangerous for anyone relying on it. This new climate sensitivity error makes the current IPCC's current climate change consequences, consequence timetables, and remedies underestimated by another approximate 25%. 

    The following article discusses in depth the IPCC's climate sensitivity error. It is full of climate sensitivity science, but most people can still understand it.

    When reading it, keep in mind that in order to determine the proper climate risk and threat assessment spectrum, one should always use the higher climate sensitivity range to envision the true risk and threat spectrum one faces.

    In the article below, it is you who gets to be the judge if the IPCC has underestimated future climate change model projections by up to 25% or more by skewing the climate sensitivity calculations for the benefit of global fossil fuel interests. 

    The following climate sensitivity section of this article was written by Peter Carter. Peter Carter was an expert reviewer for the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) fifth climate change assessment (AR5, 2014) and the IPCC’s 2018 Special Report on 1.5ºC. In 2018, he published Unprecedented Crime: Climate Science Denial and Game Changers for Survival, which he co-authored with Elizabeth Woodworth. He is published on climate change, biodiversity, and environmental health.

    The IPCC does not adequately assess global climate change for risk

    The IPCC 2021 sixth assessment climate sensitivity is fatally flawed, making the entire assessment fatally flawed for policymaking. 

    Climate sensitivity is the fundamental metric used in climate change computer modeling. It determines by how much and how fast the global average (land-ocean) temperature will increase over the coming many centuries, in response to an increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. 

    Originally, back in the 1980s, this climate sensitivity was chosen as a single fixed metric of an increase of 3°C (from the pre-industrial period) if atmospheric carbon dioxide doubled, even though the models have always given a very wide range for climate sensitivity. Furthermore, a conclusion of a 2004 IPCC workshop on climate was that “sensitivity cannot be only one global number.”

    Before I complain about the IPCC’s bad sense of science, I must say that the most important and truthful statements on climate change ever were made by the IPCC Chair at the last two UN climate conferences. 

    At the opening of the UN Madrid COP25 (2 Dec 2019), IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee said: 

    “Let me start by reminding you that our assessments show that climate stabilization implies that greenhouse gas emissions must start to peak from next year.” Global emissions had to be in decline by 2020!

    At the opening of the UN Glasgow COP26  (31 October 2021), he said:

    “It is now unequivocal that human influence is causing climate change, making extreme events more frequent and more severe. Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during this century unless immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, especially of carbon dioxide and methane, occur in the nearest future.” Global emissions have to be in decline now for any chance of limiting to the catastrophic 2°C. 

    This was completely ignored by all concerned who to this day are claiming global warming can be limited to 1.5°C. This is an absurd, misleading falsehood. As the 2018 IPCC 1.5°C Report and the 2021 6th assessment Working Group 1 The Science said, the current emissions scenario puts the world at 1.5°C around 2030. This is now absolutely unavoidable.

    However, both of these most important climate science statements went completely unreported even though the IPCC put them out as media releases. 

    Computer models designed by experts are used to estimate how the global climate, oceans and land regions will change due to greenhouse gas (GHG) global heating emissions. At every stage of the projections, from an increase in atmospheric CO2 to global surface warming and to the melting of Arctic sea ice (for example), the computer models project a very wide range of results. 

    There are, therefore, fatal fundamental flaws in the IPCC 2021 sixth assessment (AR6) climate change science. Not only has the IPCC rejected risk, it arrived at a climate sensitivity number lower than the latest models. 

    There is nothing in climate science more important than the climate sensitivity because it is the metric used to calculate how much the average surface temperature warms for any given atmospheric concentration of CO2. 

    As applied in climate change assessment, climate sensitivity has always been a single — virtually unchanging — global average temperature increase, estimated from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. It is defined as the ultra long-term equilibrium climate sensitivity (ES), which takes many hundreds of years. 

    The metric is arrived at by computer projecting the increase in long-term equilibrium global surface temperature with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The computer models result in a very wide range of temperature increases. 2014 IPCC fifth assessment has a “likely” range of climate sensitivity of up to 4.5°C, but the IPCC gave the same fixed 3°C for policymaking. The 2021 sixth assessment gave an upper likely range of 5°C, but the IPCC still only gave the single fixed 3°C for policymaking. For risk, this is obviously the wrong number to choose. The right number for policymaking is the top of the “likely range” (IPCC). This was 4.5°C in 2014 and, with new models, 5°C in 2021. 

    There is another reason why climate sensitivity has to be at least 4.5°C if not 5°C. Applying the single 3°C for projecting a temperature increase also gives a very wide range that gets wider over time as the temperature increases higher. Under the worst-case scenario (which the world is on, by the way), at 2050 the IPCC gives a temperature increase of 2.4°C, but the IPCC says the “likely range” is up to 3°C, and by 2100 the range increases to 5.7°C — while the IPCC gives 4.4°C for policymaking. In the best-case scenario for 2050, the IPCC gives 1.6°C but the likely upper range is 2°C. 

    The IPCC takes the median of this range, but the best model projection could be the one projecting the highest. As a single fixed temperature increase, climate sensitivity has always been flawed for future projections, and the AR6 makes it worse. It was originally used as a fixed standard to compare the different climate models developed by different climate centers. The IPCC’s climate sensitivity does not account for increased concentrations of the other main greenhouse gases, methane and nitrous oxide, which the scientists assume make no difference. 

    The IPCC does not include in its climate sensitivity the extra warming from large planetary sources of amplifying feedbacks, nor the damage that warming does to forests that reduces their capacity as a carbon sink, and nor the reduced ocean carbon sink from ocean heating. 

    The new models (called CMIP6) projected much higher sensitivities, which was largely due to better representations of the feedback from clouds as temperature increases.  

    In fact, there have always been some individual model results of sensitivity far higher than the 3°C used by the IPCC. 

    Going back to the fifth assessment in 2014, there were some models that, by studying actual cloud changes closely, had arrived at values much higher than 3°C and with upper limits higher again. Four out of ten models had an upper limit double the 3°C mean that was used. These upper ranges were so extremely much higher than 3°C that applying a higher sensitivity than 3°C became an imperative. 

    To conclude, the IPCC has fudged the sixth assessment’s most crucial number, making it truly fatally flawed in a way that exposes the future to climate catastrophe, benefitting no one except the fossil fuel industry. It is basic to risk assessment that the higher number — not the single median number — be applied for future projections. The difference between a climate sensitivity of 3°C against 4.5°C is life and death for our future and all life. (End of Peter Carter's article.)

    The following are illustrations showing the IPCC climate sensitivities and the much higher climate sensitivities created by other qualified climate scientists or climate research organizations.

     

     

     

     

    Despite far higher climate sensitivities being the appropriate sensitivity choice, once again in their newest just released 2021 report, the IPCC uses the lower 3C climate sensitivity estimate to appease its fossil fuel producing and using supporters!

     

    Job One for Humanity Editor's Epilogue

    The IPCC has fudged the most current sixth assessment's most important number making it fatally flawed in a way that exposes the future to endless climate catastrophes, benefitting no one except the fossil fuel industry. It may be assumed this massive additional source of climate calculation error was the work of the government policymakers who sit on the IPCC panel and have the power of line-by-line approval for the final assessment to be published. 

    The question, of course, is how could climate scientists reject any possibility of climate sensitivity above 3°C, when the models consistently gave results far higher than 3°C, and when avoiding global climate catastrophe depends upon choosing the correct climate sensitivity with the highest and most accurate sensitivity. The answer to this question is the extraordinary unique make-up of the IPCC panel.

    This panel had governments representatives sitting on the panel who had to approve every line of the assessment before it could be published. This means the big fossil fuel producing or supporting governments have not permitted a climate sensitivity to go higher than the first 1990 IPCC assessment of 3°C. 

    What does this new error mean for your future, and who is most at risk using the IPCC's current climate data for their risk assessments and climate planning

    The danger of this severe climate sensitivity calculation error and the many other IPPC errors (described further below) is that it will cause the gross underestimation of climate consequences, timetables, and remedies. Yet, the world's governments, intelligence agencies, national reserve banks, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, trans-national global corporations, think tanks, risk assessment firms, hedge funds, investment bankers, and insurance companies all use and currently depend upon the IPCC's grossly underestimated summary reports for their climate change planning, strategies, projections, etc. 

    This widespread use of the IPCC's seriously unreliable climate consequence predictions, timeframes, and remedial action information means:

    1. these critical organizations (and the rest of us) are in for a massive series of unpredicted, expensive, and painful climate consequence shocks within our many economic, political, and social systems, and 

    2. The world's foremost organizations have grossly underestimated the actual climate change threat levels, risks, and the timeframes of an already unfolding climate change-driven system collapse and extinction scenario.

    3. Because of only the ongoing climate sensitivity error, the IPCC's newest climate consequence predictions, timeframes, and remedial action information will be underestimated by as much as 25% or more. (This 25% does not include the effect of the other IPCC errors described further below.)   

    Because the underestimation and other errors of the IPCC are so considerable and so extensive, and the foremost organizations we rely upon for stability are using that flawed climate information, humanity and global society are in for a painful, wild, and chaotic ride that will lead us well into mass human extinction and if not fixed soon, total extinction.

    Here are more links explaining the decades-long history of the IPCC's many serious climate change calculation errors making their reports too unreliable for the world's survival 

    The immediate survival of humanity is at stake in the climate emergency. We can no longer rely upon the IPPC's climate calculations to create reliable risk assessments or for future climate change-related planning actions.

    (Please note: In the links below, we are not attacking or criticizing any of the thousands of hard-working and honest volunteer scientists worldwide who submit their climate research to the IPCC. Instead, we call attention to the IPCC's administrative processes and politicized leadership. They are the ones who alter and contort the real climate science received by these scientists into 5-7 year climate summary reports. Before they are released, these 5-7 year summary reports must get the line-by-line sign-off of the IPCC's major funders, the fossil fuel producing nations, and the fossil fuel-dependent nations.)

    Click here to understand the long-term history of the IPCC underestimating the consequences, timeframes, and the needed global fossil fuel reduction targets by as much as 20-40% or more.

    Click here to see precisely how the IPCC "cooked the books" and grossly skewed the current IPCC global fossil fuel reduction calculations by including unproven and non-existent "carbon sucking unicorn" technology into their projections. 

    Click here to see the IPCC's Perfect Day problem with its computer climate modeling.

    Click here to see the eleven key climate change tipping points that have been mostly excluded from the IPCC calculations on how much fossil fuel use we must reduce each year globally. 

    Click here to see the four key reasons why the IPCC's 26 global climate conferences have failed to produce results or legitimate global fossil fuel reduction targets.

    Click here to see the IPCC's huge atmospheric methane calculation problem.

    Click here to see the latest 2022 IPCC climate change summary report on the critical climate sensitivity error. Because of only this ongoing climate sensitivity error, the IPCC's newest climate consequence predictions, timeframes, and remedial action information will be underestimated by as much as 25% or more. (This 25% does not include the effect of the other IPCC errors described in the links just above.) 

    Click here to see a new study showing that the IPCC does not include many critical climate system factors in its computer climate modeling. Those missing factors equal wrong and distorted results. This Feb 2022 paper strongly refutes the absurd IPCC claim that the Arctic sea ice melt-decline is reversible. It is not reversible, and that is a monster problem for humanity's weather, seasonal climate, and future!

    All of the above linked decades of IPCC error, miscalculation, and polarization problems also means that the IPCC is an unreliable partner for truthful and accurate climate change information. Their climate consequence predictions, timeframes, and remedial action information are grossly underestimated by 25 - 50 %+ and possibly more! 

    In general, if the IPCC currently says some climate consequence will happen or something must be done in ten years, it is more likely to occur in 5-6 years. For example, if the IPCC says we must reduce global fossil fuel use by 45% by 2030, the actual amount will be 75% by 2025-2026. Start discounting everything coming out of the IPCC by 50% to compensate for all of their decades of errors, miscalculations, and polarization, and you will not be too far from the truth, which they are desperately trying to hide or disguise.

    At the minimum, we hope that by the time you this article and its documentation, you too will adopt the general rule of thumb that, whatever the IPCC tells you about the coming climate change consequences, timeframes, and remedies will be underestimated by at least 20-40%! 

     

    What you can do about the climate emergency?

    Click here and select the action plan that is best for your situation and resources.


  • The 2,000 Billionaires Plan: How to Get Our Governments & Politicians to Act to Prevent Our Climate Change-Driven Extinction

    It may be that only the world's 2,000 billionaires have enough governmental influence to get our governments to act upon the climate change emergency in time to save humanity from extinction!

    Read more