Lawrence Wollersheim

  • published Today's Key Climate Change Facts in About 2022-10-02 19:19:55 -0700

    Today's Key Climate Change Facts that will Most Affect Your Life Plans

    Prologue

    The illustrated summary of key climate change and global heating facts below is updated regularly as new climate research is released. It was last updated with new climate science or analysis on 9.30.2022.

    This page contains:

    1. How the accelerating climate consequences (heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, flooding, rain bombs, wind storms (Derechos), dust storms, wildfire smoke events, unseasonable cold spells, and abnormal unseasonal weather) will adversely affect your life.

    2. What you can do to fix the climate change and global heating emergency to prepare your loved ones and business for the many severe climate consequences we can no longer avoid!

    3. How, over the last sixty years (due to decades of ineffective climate actions,) we got ourselves into this climate nightmare.

    Introduction 

    Although climate change science is complicated and complex, we will do our best to explain today's key climate facts as simply as possible. Once you have read this page, you will accurately understand:

    1. our current climate condition,

    2. the global heating emergency (at about the level of many climate researchers) and,

    3. this website's core climate message and warning.

     

     

    The illustrated climate facts below tell the story of climate change, global heating, and the global fossil fuel burning reduction challenge we have created for ourselves. These uncensored facts will illuminate that our climate change and global heating future are far worse than we are being told. However, immediate action is still possible and provides the best approach to creating a safer and more secure future.

    We do not expect you to blindly believe the following global heating facts. At the end of each fact, we have provided links to the climate science and analysis to help you decide if each fact is accurate. (We also challenge you or any climate scientist to prove any of the climate facts below wrong.)

    We understand how disturbing it may be to discover this unsettling and disruptive climate information. 

    At the end of this article, you will also find a link to practical global heating solutions for this emergency as well as climate resilience-building actions that you can personalize to your situation and resources. 

    Like the cigarette industry's decades of misinformation, disinformation, and regulation delaying tactics, the deceptive and delaying climate change disinformation, misinformation, and regulation delaying tactics of the even better-funded fossil fuel industry have successfully kept the following climate change global heating facts from you for decades. 

    If you can not see or acknowledge reality as it is, it is doubtful you will ever be able to change it. So, let's look at today's uncensored climate condition, a reality that so few are willing to acknowledge today.

     

     

    A quick overview of today's uncensored climate facts

    Below, please find our highly probable and almost certain climate future. In a section further below is more detail about  each climate fact.

    Fact 1: Over the last six decades, our governments have completely failed to fix the accelerating global warming emergency. The painful bill for this unconscionable governmental management failure has now come due.

    Fact 2: By 2025-2031, because of the cumulative atmospheric carbon pollution from over 15 decades of burning of fossil fuels, the severity, frequency, and scale of our existing climate change consequences will increase radically!

    Fact 3: The largest next major and probable climate tipping point, catastrophe, and key global disruptor is the Thwaites "doomsday glacier.") It is predicted to collapse around 2025-2028. It is the size of England and its collapse will quickly raise global sea level by 2-3 feet. (Half the world's population currently lives along our sea coasts.)

    Fact 4: Today's correct global fossil fuel reduction targets require all developed countries (including China and India) to compel all citizens to reduce ALL fossil fuel use by about 75% by 2025

    Fact 5: Missing the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and crossing the atmospheric carbon threshold of carbon 425-450 parts per million (ppm) means we also will trigger the first of four extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points. 

    Fact 6: Because we did not effectively reduce global heating during the last six decades, crossed climate tipping points, climate feedbacks, and accelerating climate consequences will cause the unavoidable extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. (This extinction will be driven by crop failures, starvation, and the conflicts that will naturally arise because of climate change-driven mass migrations.)

    Fact 7: Getting close to achieving the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible is the only way to save the what remains of humanity after mid-century from an even worse, near-total extinction process. (If we do not act now, the near-total extinction process could begin as soon as 2050-2080 )

    Fact 8: Only immediate and massive climate action by our governments can save us at this very late stage of climate destabilization! (To protect the after-mid-century remaining half of humanity from near-total extinction, ALL governments must immediately mobilize and cooperate and ensure we get close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible!)

    Fact 9: Everything our governments are doing currently to fix the climate is still "far too little, far too late." Many climate well-informed individuals and businesses have already started "Plan B" emergency survival and adaptation plans to ensure they make it through the hard times ahead. (Managed retreat and climate change migration are also potential survival and adaptation strategies.) 

    Fact 10: To fix the runaway global heating extinction emergency, we must finally use legitimate global fossil fuel reduction targets and a comprehensive global fossil fuel reduction plan that will work (like the Job One Plan.)

    Bonus Fact 11, the Good News: While humanity can no longer escape a climate-caused mass die-off and its global turmoil, humanity can learn from these painful climate catastrophe lessons. When we finally resolve the global heating emergency, humanity's survivors can receive the many possible positive benefits of a Great Global Rebirth!

     

    Other Essential Climate Change Facts:

    Fact 1: No miracle "new technology" (like carbon capture) currently exists at the needed scale or cost efficiency capable of saving humanity from the global heating nightmare before about half of humanity is dead. Hoping for some "new technology" to be discovered at the last minute to save us --- is a horrible strategy doomed to fail.

    Fact 2: We have wasted six decades not fixing our climate change and global heating emergency. If you are interested, in a section further below you will discover painful reasons for this gross, dangerous, and immoral failure! 

     

    Short Explanations for Each of Today's Critical Climate Change Facts

    The climate facts below also are what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations (previously the most recognized authority on climate change) should have published in their latest 2022 climate summary report, but they too have been adversely affected by the near-unlimited lobbying power of the 28 trillion dollar-a-year fossil fuel industry. 

    Fact 1: Over the last six decades, our governments have completely failed to fix the accelerating global warming emergency. The painful bill for this unconscionable governmental management failure has now come due.

    There is no better measure of the last sixty years of our success or failure in reducing global warming than the amount of carbon going into our atmosphere. This is because more carbon going into the atmosphere directly causes the average global temperature to rise.

    Look carefully at the atmospheric carbon graph below.

     

     

    As you can see, we are adding more carbon into the atmosphere from the global burning of fossil fuels each year. According to the immutable laws of physics, this means ever-rising temperatures will resolutely follow every rise in atmospheric carbon.

    But, worse yet, we are also adding more carbon to the atmosphere at faster and faster rates! (The dotted line in the graph above is getting steeper and increasing each year incrementally. This steepening of the chart indicates we are adding more carbon to the atmosphere at faster and faster rates.)

    For example, several decades ago, we only added about 1.5 carbon parts per million (ppm) each year. Now we are adding close to 3 carbon ppm each year. This difference means that in just decades, we have doubled the total annual increase of new carbon pollution going into our atmosphere each year!

    This rapid annual increase also means that not only have we failed to reduce global fossil fuel for over six decades, but we have also actually increased the yearly fossil fuel pollution of our atmosphere by almost double. 

    This is the state of our past global fossil fuel reduction efforts, and you will not hear almost anyone speaking this horrible truth.

    We must now face that we have utterly failed to control the accelerating global warming nightmare. This failure is despite the many international conferences, treaties, reduction agreements, warnings, policy changes, new laws, and actions of thousands of global NGOs and environmental groups educating for decades about the dangers of accelerating global heating. 

    This real, gigantic and well-hidden failure exists despite all contrary media or other climate reporting by those with hidden or vested financial interests in the fossil fuel industry.

    Look again at science's most accurate carbon measurement of our reductions in global fossil fuel use and the true measure of our effectiveness in reducing escalating global heating. We have unequivocally failed to manage humanity's single greatest short-term threat (other than immediate global thermo-nuclear war.)

    We will not be safe from runaway global warming again until our governments get atmospheric carbon levels at or below about carbon 350 ppm.

    Yes, this vast and continuous climate management failure is tough to deal with, but to begin taking the correct climate path out of this mess, one must know honestly from where they are starting. A society that does not know where it currently is with its climate management progress will not have the necessary urgency or focus on fixing it.

    The next most important climate facts to know are our climate consequences.

    Fact 2: By 2025-2031, because of the cumulative atmospheric carbon pollution from over 15 decades of burning of fossil fuels, the severity, frequency, and scale of our existing climate change consequences will increase radically.

    This means the climate consequences of heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, hurricanes and cyclones, flooding, rain bombs, wind storms (Derechos), dust storms, wildfire smoke, unseasonable cold spells, and abnormal un-seasonal weather will become far more severe, occur much more frequently, and cover larger and larger areas. Also, the biggest single global climate catastrophe is predicted to occur during this period.

    This sudden 2025-2031 radical increase in climate consequence severity, frequency, and scale is because:

    1. We will have already crossed key amplifying and critical climate tipping points and climate feedback loops and we will have stepped into the beginning stages of runaway global heating.

    2. We also will be crossing more amplifying climate feedback loops and climate tipping points at even faster rates during the 2025-2031 period.

    3. We will have crossed into a new level of atmospheric carbon pollution level where we reach carbon (CO2) 425-450 parts per million (ppm.) Lowered atmospheric carbon is the best and most accurate way to see the actual results of our past fossil fuel reduction efforts. (Again please see the atmospheric carbon graph below. As of March 2022, we were at carbon 421 ppm.)

     

     

    4. We will also likely experience the largest climate tipping point catastrophe and global disruptor (the Thwaites "doomsday glacier.") It is now predicted to potentially collapse during the next 3-5 years. This one "doomsday glacier" when it collapses will have quickly arriving dire global affects rising sea level 2-3 feet.

    5. For the last sixty years, we have failed to fix climate change, and now our climate bill has finally come due. 

    According to James Hansen the respected NASA climate scientist, we first entered the beginning phases of runaway global heating when we passed the carbon 386 ppm level (and comitted ourselves to passing behyond the 1.5 degree Celsius increased global temperture level). 

    Climate change and global heating consequences will not only rise radically. Eventually they will increase exponentially, and at best, you may have only another 3-9 more years of relative climate stability, depending upon where you live. Beginning around 2025, if you are in a high-risk climate change and global heating area, the global warming consequences that you are already experiencing will start to become far worse because of more crossed climate tipping points.

    Take a look at the list of global heating consequences below. On the list below, food and other essential resource shortages, increased global starvation, and rapidly rising food prices will become rapidly intensifying and chronic problems.

     

    Chapter_2_Consequence_Tornado.png

     

    Understanding what runaway global warming is can be challenging. If you imagined runaway global heating like a train without brakes rolling down a mountain that is getting steeper and steeper, you would have a good idea about the seriousness of our climate consequences soon rising radically.

    To make the accelerating global heating problem more tangible, imagine a midwestern US state like Kansas already in a climate zone called “Tornado Alley.” Now envision that every year, the number of tornados and their intensity category number keeps increasing.

    Towns get wiped out. They try to rebuild. But before the new houses, businesses, and infrastructure are complete, they are hit again.

    All the money just spent to repair the area is blown away. So, what do they have left but to start over again? They do start to rebuild. And they get hit yet again. This happens over and over. Each time sooner with even bigger losses. That IS our global future with radically rising global heating.

    If you are a science person, this link for Fact 2 will take you to documentation links and an expanded explanation of why global heating-related consequences will soon start rising exponentially in severity, frequency, and scale.

     

    Fact 3: The largest next major and probable climate tipping point, catastrophe, and key global disruptor is the Thwaites "doomsday glacier.") It is predicted to collapse around 2025-2028. It is the size of England and its collapse will quickly raise global sea level by 2-3 feet. (Half the world's population lives along our sea coasts.)

    Always keep your eye on the biggest and most devastating global climate consequence and crossed climate tipping point that will occur soon. It will be the sudden collapse of the Thwaites doomsday glacier. This glacier is the size of England or Florida.

    The sudden collapse of the Thwaites doomsday glacier will be the largest single climate catastrophe ever and quickly become a massive global disruptor of the stability of our economic, social, and political systems. Billions of individuals will be immediately affected, and it will cause the greatest real estate crash in history for coastal properties.

     

     

    If you are a science person, this link for Fact 3 will take you to documentation links and an expanded explanation.

    Fact 4: Today's correct global fossil fuel reduction targets require all developed countries (including China and India) to compel their citizens to reduce ALL fossil fuel use by about 75% by 2025

    (Undeveloped countries have considerably lower 2025 targets due to climate justice factors, and they already have such low per-capita emissions.)

    If we do not get close to these global fossil fuel reduction targets, our world will experience unavoidable, immoral, and cataclysmic climate-related consequences.

    Radically reducing global fossil fuel use in all developed countries by 2025 is not the ineffective and deceptive net-zero emissions by 2030, 2040, 2050, or 2060 target pledges you hear all over the media and from our governments. These net-zero emission schemes cannot scale up fast enough to save us from mass to near-total extinction.

    When you hear these net-zero emission plans being promoted instead of simply making the required 2025 fossil fuel reductions, know that someone behind the scenes is protecting fossil fuel industry profits. (Please see this page for the science behind why these future net-zero emission pledges will not work in time to save humanity. Discover why you and your children will also pay a steep price for these false net-zero solutions and pledges.)

     

     

    If you are a science person, this link for Fact 4 will take you to documentation links and an expanded explanation about the details of all of the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. It includes technical notes on how the fossil fuel reduction calculations were created.

     

    Fact 5: Missing the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and crossing the atmospheric carbon threshold of carbon 425-450 parts per million (ppm) means we will trigger the first of four extinction-accelerating global warming tipping points. 

    If we do not get close to the 2025 targets, we set the stage for near-total human extinction, and we lose our last chance to be still able to reverse the climate damage we have done for centuries to thousands of years. Additionally, missing the 2025 targets will trigger many amplifying climate feedback loops

    Below this statement is a graphic titled “Positive Feedback Loop” It is an example of just one of the many accelerating global heating amplifying feedback loops.

     

    The following global warming-related dangerous interactions occur when climate tipping points and climate feedback loops within the climate system interact with each other and with rising global heating (as they are doing now.) When this happens, we are headed for even higher global temperatures at an accelerated rate, and we put the global heating extinction process on the fast track. 

     

     

     

    According to James Hansen, the former NASA climate scientist, in 2015, when we crossed the atmospheric carbon level of carbon 386 parts per million (ppm), we entered into the beginning phase of runaway global heating. We are currently around carbon 420 ppm. (See atmospheric carbon graph further above.) 

    When we enter the atmospheric carbon 425-450 ppm range, occurring from now until about 2031, we enter a scary second phase of runaway global heating. This is the atmospheric carbon range where the primary and secondary climate consequences radically increase in severity, frequency, and scale

    Worse yet, somewhere in the carbon 425-carbon 450 ppm range (or immediately after we cross carbon 450 ppm), we also will greatly accelerate the crossing of new climate tipping points and climate feedbacks to a level where runaway global heating will enter its third uncontrollable phase. 

    Somewhere in that 425-450 ppm range, we also will reach the point that forces the average global temperature to rise two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. Unfortunately, here is where the process of the near-total extinction of humanity begins, and our future is no longer in our control. 

    Once we hit two degrees Celsius, we can not stop ourselves from reaching a 3, 4, 5, and 6 degree Celsius temperature increase. Long before we get to the 6-degree Celsius increase, humanity will have reached the near-total extinction level. (To find out what that near-total extinction means and how it will occur, read this page on the overview of the near-total extinction process, and then read this page on what will happen to us at faster and faster rates once we cross the carbon 450 ppm level.) 

    Worse yet, climate consequences will also begin to increase exponentially after we pass carbon 450 ppm. (To better understand this exponential change, read the four extinction triggering climate tipping points.) 

    It is important to grasp what climate consequences suddenly increasing exponentially means. In the graph below the red line is an example of a linear gradual growth trajectory.  (Linear progression equals 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, etc.) The green line is an example of an exponential growth curve and trajectory. (Exponential progression equals 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 264, etc.)

     

     

    If you are a science person, this link for Fact 5 will take you to documentation links and an expanded explanation of tipping point theory and the unfolding process of global heating's four extinction-accelerating tipping points activating and how it will affect your future.

     

    Fact 6: Because we did not act effectively to reduce global heating during the last six decadescrossed climate tipping points, climate feedbacks, and accelerating climate consequences will cause the unavoidable extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century.

    This mass extinction process for about half of humanity will initially be driven by climate consequence-related:

    a. rising global temperatures,

    b. low crop yields and crop failures, and

    c. new regional, national, and international conflicts caused directly or indirectly by mass migrations of starving peoples or because of other climate-related key resource shortages.

    (Please note mass human extinction is not total human extinction. Total and near-total extinction will be explained shortly.) 

    Crops will fail or be stunted because of global warming aggravated heatwaves, rain bombs, droughts, flooding, wildfires, out-of-season cold spells, hail, Derechos (severe wind storms), and other extreme weather which destabilizes normal growing season conditions. The world's five principal grains (rice, wheat, maize [corn], millet, and sorghum) are particularly vulnerable to climate-caused massive crop failure. This crop failure occurs when temperatures (heat waves) are near or above 100 degrees Fahrenheit for about 30 days during the regular growing season.

    Increasing starvation increases mass migration to wherever there is more food. These mass hunger migrations cause more local, regional, and national conflicts, which creates an amplifying feedback loop of even more mass starvation, soaring food prices, economic instability, and more conflict. As conflicts grow in food-growing and producing countries, food production will drop even more because of the many food-growing and transportation disruptions caused directly or indirectly by those conflicts.

     

     

    (Please note that the above climate-related initial consequences are not the only reasons that about half of humanity will unavoidably die off by mid-century. This link for this climate fact 6 will take you to a detailed explanation and documentation links for both why and the step-by-step how the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century will occur.)

    Fact 6 is known by the world's leading intelligence agencies and many climate scientists and researchers. However, it is not in the public dialog or media because most major media is owned, controlled, or heavily influenced by fossil fuel-related industries.

    With rising global temperatures, more global heating consequences (shown below) will interact, intensify and worsen. This consequence interaction also will contribute directly and indirectly to the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century.

     

    We have wasted six decades, and now the consequences of climate and global heating have worsened so much that it is too late to prevent the extinction of about half of humanity (about 3-4 billion people) by mid-century. This also means it is time to prepare humanity for the many huge sacrifices we must make to get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. And it is also time to prepare humanity for the unimaginable and unavoidable soon-arriving suffering. 

    If you want to review additional climate science on why about half of humanity will go extinct by mid-century, click here. We want you to have all of the science and analysis behind our half of humanity going extinct by mid-century statements. Hence, you will know that the many painful and difficult changes you will soon need to make are genuinely warranted. And this link for Fact 6 will take you to even more detailed information, explanations, and key links on the intensifying consequences, processes, crossed tipping points, and feedback loops that will unavoidably bring about the mass extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. 

     

    Fact 7: Getting close to achieving the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible is the only way to save the what remains of humanity after mid-century from an even worse, near-total extinction process. (If we do not act now, the near-total extinction process could begin as soon as 2050-2080 )

    Near-total human extinction means that as much as 50% to 90%+ of the post-mid-century surviving population could also die. How much of humanity dies in the second wave of post-mid-century extinction depends upon how close we get to the 2025 global reduction targets and how soon we do it.

    The closer we get to the 2025 targets, the more people will survive and live longer and more comfortable lives. Conversely, the longer it takes to reach those targets, the more people will die and suffer the ever-intensifying consequences of our fossil fuel-burning actions.

    There is significant good news in this challenging news. At worst, we will only suffer near-total extinction and not total human extinction. Even if we miss the 2025 targets by a considerable amount, both human and natural counteractions will eventually take place to first slow and then stop us from burning ever more fossil fuels. 

    These human and natural counteraction processes will be the most severe in the form of Mother Nature simply killing off more and more of us. Mother Nature will continue doing this until humanity does not have enough remaining population to continue adding more carbon pollution from burning fossil fuels into the atmosphere. (The current estimate is that at least half of humanity would have to die off by about mid-century for this corrective and counterbalancing die-off process to start.)  

    Think of fossil fuel burning, carbon pollution, and global heating as giving the Earth a virus and fever. Next, imagine Mother Nature raising the temperature of the Earth until the consequences of that rising temperature have killed off enough of that virus (us) to allow her other systems to regain their natural balance. If you can imagine this, you would have a good idea of this dominant natural correction process that will take control if we fail to reduce our global fossil fuel use on our own radically to get close to the 2025 targets.

    (Please read the illustration below starting from the bottom up! It will help you visualize and better understand the levels of climate and global heating consequences that will further accelerate human extinction.

     

     

    If you are a science person, this link for Fact 7 will discuss in more detail why our future, at worst, will only be a near-total extinction event and not total human extinction. This expanded Fact 5 link will also discuss the critical death percentage differences between mass, near-total, and total extinction scenarios. Finally, it will also take you to documentation links and expanded information on human and natural counteractions and the primary and secondary climate-related consequences that will eventually result in near-total human extinction described in Fact 5.

     

    Here are the"what do we need to do now to save ourselves" facts.

     

    Fact 8: Only immediate and massive climate action by our governments can save us at this very late stage of climate destabilization! (To protect the after-mid-century remaining half of humanity from near-total extinction, ALL governments must immediately mobilize and cooperate and ensure we get as close as possible to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible!)

    If our governments get close to the 2025 global reduction targets the worse we wll suffer is the loss of about half of humanity by mid-century. If our governments fail to get us close to the 2025 targets, our focus must shift to minimizing the percentage of the population that will continue to die after mid-century.

     Our governments must also begin planning now for a massive population loss and a sudden global decline.

     


    If you are a science person, this link for Fact 8 will take you to documentation links and expanded information about the many silmeltaneous actions that our governments must do immediately to save humanity in time.

     

    Fact 9: Everything our governments are doing currently to fix the climate is still "far too little, far too late." Many climate well-informed individuals and businesses have already started "Plan B" emergency survival and adaptation plans to ensure they make it through the hard times ahead. (Managed retreat and climate change migration are also potential survival and adaptation strategies.) 

    There are many soon-arriving climate consequence reasons for beginning a personal or business Plan B. The most powerful consequences is the Thwaites "doomsday glacier" which will soon collapse (about 2025-2028) raising sea levels up to 2-3 feet far too fast for humans to successfully adapt. 

    Because of the immient Thwaites "doomsday glacier's" cataclysmic collapse and our other many accelerating climate consequences there will be partial to complete collapses of vulnerable, less resilient social, economic, political, and ecological systems as global heating soars and as about half of humanity unavoidably goes extinct by mid-century. Moreover, few our our human systems will be able to withstand the desperate and increasing runaway global heating-driven, mass starvation, mass migrations, and the next wave of regional, national, and international resource conflicts.

    If for no other reason, having personal and business emergency preparation completed is now critical because of the imminent Thwaites "doomsday glacier" collapse and it many related consequences. 

    In addition to having the needed survival emergency preparation and adaptation steps, the Job One for Humanity Plan B is built upon the wise strategy of preparing for the worst possible outcomes while still staying focused on creating the best possible outcomes. This dual focus is necessary because if our governments don't act soon, there will be few of us left at the predicted post-mid-century higher global sea levels and temperatures, and surviving will be far more challenging.

    The Job One Plan B is also about emotionally and physically preparing yourself (and your loved ones) for all of the terrible sacrifices and suffering that we must endure to make it through the many unavoidable and soon-arriving consequences of the runaway global heating emergency.

    The Job One for Humanity Plan B also includes our governments at all levels (local, regional, and national) having a plan of managed climate retreat that prepares for the massive global heating-driven population collapse and the consequent sudden and steep global decline in most of our other global support systems. Plan B could even involve migrating to a new location that will be safer from the accelerating consequences of runaway global heating. 

    Start your Job One Plan B soon, and do not forget that we must get our governments to act now to save as many people as possible. If you have any doubts that you need to start your Plan B immediately, read about the many soon-arriving and severe consequences of the Thwaites "doomsday glacier” before doing anything else.

    After reading this page, please that look over all of the primary and secondary runaway heating consequences on this page.

     

     

    If you are a science person, this link for Fact 9 will take you to documentation links and expanded information about the Thwaites "doomsday glacier" and the many parts of a wise Plan B for yourself, your family and your business.

     

    Fact 10: To fix the runaway global heating extinction emergency, we must finally use and execute honest global fossil fuel reduction targets and use a comprehensive global fossil fuel reduction plan that will work (like the Job One Plan.)

    Individuals and businesses must now work for the best and silmeltaneously prepare for the worst by:

    a. making the necessary emergency preparations and adaptations needed to build their climateand global heating resilience vital to successfully managing the worst of the coming climate and global heating consequences. (If you are fortunate, well prepared, and in a global heating safer region (described in the expanded fact section,) you could survive 30-50 more years, possibly even longer. (Part one of the Job One for Humanity Plan B will help you do this.) 

    b. demanding their national politicians reduce global fossil fuel use to get us close to the honest and correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. (This action step is mainly for individuals who can directly influence their national politicians. (See Part three of the Job One for Humanity Plan B to see what our governments must do.) 

    c. making the necessary personal 75% fossil fuel use reductions to do their part to get us close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. (Part two of the Job One for Humanity Plan B will help you do this.) 

    d. making better global heating decisions concerning what they want to do personally about the accelerating climate and runaway global heating consequences. (This might even include re-planing their lives or re-adjusting their priorities to focus on the meaningful and important things they may have delayed or failed to do. This information is also found in the Job One for Humanity Plan B.

    To act wisely and fix the runaway global heating emergency, it is also critical for every individual and business to know the accurate timeframes for the next even bigger waves of global heating consequences found here and in the Job One for Humanity Plan B. Understanding the coming global heating consequence timeframes will allow you and your loved ones adequate planning and action time to create the best possible global heating emergency outcomes while simultaneously preparing for the worst possible global heating outcomes.

    The safe and unsafe areas map below for the safer global heating areas also will be explained on the expanded climate facts page and in its links.) In general, on the global heating risk map below if you live in areas between the red and yellow lines you have a considerably higher global heating risk level. 

     

     

    If you are a science person, this link for Fact 10 will take you to the safest global heating areas and the timeframes you will need to know to prepare yourself for what is coming.

     

    Bonus Fact 11, the Good News: While humanity can no longer escape a climate caused mass die-off and its global turmoil, humanity can learn from its climate catastrophe lessons. When the global heating emergency is over, humanity's survivors can receive the many positive benefits of a Great Global Rebirth!

    There will be much suffering and death that we can no longer escape, but the many possible positive benefits for the lucky and wise survivors could create a world in which we ALL would want to live. We strongly recommend you come back to the following benefits link after you have finished this page and the three recommended actions at the bottom of the page. 

    You have read a lot of terrible climate change and global heating news. It is now essential to balance all this bad news with appropriate good news and the realistic hope provided by the many positive possibilities of a Great Global Rebirth.

    This benefits link leads to the most read page on our website, viewed over 2 million times. Click here to learn more about the many positive possibilities of fixing global heating and a Great Global Rebirth. 

    If you are a science person, this link for Fact 11 will take you to documentation links and expanded explanations of this fact. 


    Receive Our Free Climate Change & Runaway Global Heating Updates!

     

    Other Essential Climate Change Facts

    Fact 1: No miracle "new technology" (like carbon capture) currently exists at the needed scale or cost efficiency capable of saving humanity from the global heating nightmare before about half of humanity is dead. Hoping for some "new technology" to be discovered at the last minute to save us --- is a horrible strategy doomed to fail.

    These promised miracle "new technologies" are false solutions that steal the real urgency away from the runaway global heating emergency, and worse yet:

    1. None of the current miracle "new technology" climate solutions can come even close to globally scaling up in time (over the next three years) to compensate for our significantly missing the 2025 global targets. 

    2. Most have not yet been proven to work (even at a small scale.)

    3. All have not been adequately tested at a sufficiently large enough scale for unintended side effects. Any unknown and unintended side effects could create even greater problems than the problems they were designed to solve.

    4. They are prohibitively costly. And,

    5. Many burn so much fossil fuel trying to remove atmospheric carbon or geo-engineer the planet or atmosphere that their massive fossil fuel use eliminates their benefits. To implement the new technologies, massive amounts of energy will be needed to process the required raw materials and fabricate the solutions. To do this quickly, existing methods must provide the energy, which would further delay reaching global goals. And finally,

    6. These miracle "new technologies" are falsely promising us that we can continue our lives of over-consuming, polluting, and burning fossil fuels as we are now. Nothing could be further from the truth.

    Additionally, society is ignoring that we are reaching limits to the availability of many natural resources. To build these proposed new technologies, vital materials will be required in such tremendous amounts that routine social needs would be severely impacted.

     

     

    If you are a science person, this link for Fact 7 will take you to documentation links and expanded information on why new technologies can not save us in time and everything our governments must do to save humanity's future. At this point only our governments acting in concert have the power to save the future.

    Fact 2: We have wasted six decades delaying fixing our climate and the global heating emergency. Here are key painful reasons for this gross, dangerous, and unconscionable failure!  

    In addition to the decades of well-funded fossil fuel industry global disinformation and misinformation programs, our runaway global heating emergency has been made far more difficult to resolve because of the ongoing gross underestimation and politicization of climate science by the trusted Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations (the IPCC.) 

    Yes, the physical cause of runaway global heating is indeed our global burning of fossil fuels. And yes, over the last six decades, the 28 trillion dollar-a-year fossil fuel industry and its lobbyists have subjected the world's politicians to the most potent disinformation and influence campaign in history. Their program was designed to prevent or limit regulations that would reduce global fossil fuel use. But, there is another organization that, because we have always trusted it and its climate summary reports, is also a dominant reason for our ongoing failures to mobilize the world to demand the end of fossil fuels. 

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is currently the most widely recognized and relied upon authority for climate change data. Every world government, major corporation, and NGO relies on these climate summary reports for planning their required fossil fuel reductions.

    But there is a massive problem with the IPCC's climate summary reports. For decades, the IPCC has allowed its top administrators to underestimate, politicize and distort the underlying climate science and research of thousands of dedicated volunteer climate scientists.

    This politicization of climate science has resulted in the public being given grossly underestimated climate change consequences, time frames, and required corrective actions. Furthermore, this gross underestimation has resulted in the general public being unaware of the seriousness and extreme urgency of the soon-arriving new levels of climate and global heating threat to their lives and businesses. 

    But why would the IPCC's top administrators grossly underestimate the global heating threat and its remedies and do such a harmful thing to the future of humanity and the peoples of the world? 

     


    The IPCC's top administrators did this because of the overwhelming:

    a. political pressure from those corporations and nations with the most to gain by not reducing fossil fuel use, and

    b. ongoing United Nations and IPCC funding denial threats from fossil fuel producing and fossil fuel-dependent countries.

    The wealthiest fossil fuel producers, fossil fuel-dependent nations, and industries lobbied hard and long to "convince" these IPCC administrators they needed to "tone down" their climate facts to approve their "softer" climate summary reports. 

    The political pressure to underestimate the climate problem and its solutions was orchestrated under the guise of toning down the climate facts in order not to create widespread public fear or panic. But, the real reason for the relentless political pressure on the IPCC's administrators to underestimate their climate summary reports was always to allow fossil fuel producers and fossil fuel-dependent nations and industries to continue doing "business as usual" and profiting. These nations and industries did not want an informed public to initiate a massive public outcry demanding the appropriate, huge, and immediate global fossil fuel reductions. 

    Nothing would be worse for the worldwide fossil fuel empire than if the public knew just how dire, immediate, and deadly the climate and runaway global heating extinction emergency really was and how soon it would get far worse. 

    Can you imagine what would happen if the worldwide general public understood what it meant to already be in an accelerating runaway global heating extinction emergency where about half of humanity unavoidably will be dead by mid-century? 

    Why the IPCC's gross underestimation problem is important to you

    1. If the world is grossly deceived about how bad the runaway global heating extinction emergency really is, it is unlikely the world will demand its politicians make the needed changes to save humanity from it. 

    2. The IPCC's gross underestimation issue presents an immense danger to the world's governments, intelligence agencies, national reserve banks, major corporations, media, risk assessment firms, hedge funds, investment bankers, and insurance companies. They run the world, and they all use the IPCC's grossly underestimated climate change and global heating summary reports for their future climate change planning and consequence strategies. This widespread use of this seriously unreliable climate prediction and remedial information means these entities and the rest of us are in for a massive and continuous series of painful and expensive climate change and global heating consequences, surprises, and shocks.

    The IPCC has also organized or coordinated many international climate conferences. These climate conferences have produced scores of unenforceable and unverifiable international climate change reduction agreements. Unfortunately, these agreements have ALL failed to remove or even lessen the runaway global heating extinction threat.

    The following graph shows the continuous failure of the IPCC and its climate conferences, as shown in the ever-rising carbon ppm amounts in the illustration below. 

     

     

    If we are ever going to prevent or slow down the runaway global heating extinction emergency, we have to do something different. We will have to quickly:

    1. get different, better qualified, and better-funded organizations to take over the IPCC climate science analysis and summary reporting responsibilities.

    2. create some new form of global climate governance. This new global climate governance would also need to have the powers of enforcement and verification on all new international climate agreements.

    Runaway global heating is a global problem. Therefore, its solution must also be globally enforceable. But, without a valid mechanism for global climate law-making, governance, and enforcement, each nation will fight for national advantage, stall the changes, or cheat on its fossil fuel reductions, so what's needed to fix runaway global heating never gets done.

    The distorted and politicized IPCC climate summary reports have created a grossly false sense of climate safety and climate security in the general public. The general public still widely believes that climate change and global heating won't be that bad, its most harmful consequences are a long, long way off in the future, and they have no grasp of the soon-arriving, global heating-fueled processes of mass starvation and mass extinction. Most of the public has been lulled into climate inaction by the highly compromised IPCC.

    As a good general IPCC climate information discounting operating principle 

    Whenever you hear about an IPCC administrator-politicized climate change and global heating summary report, you would be wise to treat it as 20-40% worse than they are saying and arriving 20-40% sooner than they are saying. For example, the IPCC has said we could have as much as 6 feet of sea-level rise by 2100. However, using the fossil fuel industry interference discount, we are far more likely to get 7-8 feet sometime around 2070. 

    Likewise, the IPCC has predicted a possible 1-2-foot sea-level rise by 2050, which actually means we will more likely experience three or more feet of sea-level rise by 2040. Many coastal communities think they can build massive sea walls and escape sea-level rise flooding. However, the previous IPCC sea-level estimates do not include the total sea level reaching their shores. (The IPCC sea-level rise estimates do not include those rare occurrences where the tidal surge from a major storm happens at the same time as the maximum tide phenomenon called a King tide, which often occurs around the full moon.)

     

     

    Please get the above climate facts widely distributed and known before it is too late for any of us!

    This knowledge once widely shared will help illuminate the true urgency of our emergency. Moreover, understanding the true urgency of the runaway global heating extinction emergency will eventually create the necessary public demand to get our politicians to begin a government-enforced global fossil fuel reduction plan that will work. 

    The worst consequences runaway global heating extinction emergency will not be prevented or lessened unless:

    1. You get active on the many scalable solutions in the Job One for Humanity Plan B. And, 

    2. You do your part to help educate others about today's critical facts before it is too late. 

    Unfortunately, too many climate and environmental organizations do not yet understand this page's climate facts. So, please also get their executives this information. 

    If you are a science person, this link will provide many more reasons for why we have failed to fix runaway global heating and why discounting IPPC accuracy is wise and appropriate. If you are a science person, this link will take you to documentation links and expanded information about the IPCC's many reliability issues.

     

    In Summary

    Help fix runaway global heating the greatest disruptor of the 21st century or suffer its accelerating consequences and potentially perish!

    Humanity and its ancestors thrived for almost 1,000,000 years when the historical and interglacial high atmospheric carbon levels remained within the carbon level range of carbon 270-280 parts per million (ppm.) 

    Many decades ago, climate scientists warned us that when we crossed the atmospheric carbon evel of 350 ppm, humanity would be unsafe from horrible consequences and even extinction, and that we were on the way to runaway global warming

    Measuring the most dangerous greenhouse gases of atmospheric carbon [CO2,] methane [C4,] and nitrous dioxide [N2O] are the best ways to measure the increasing threat level of increasing global heating and increased global heating consequences. Therefore, the three greenhouse gas measurements shown together on the graph below are also one of the very best ways to predict future global heating and future temperature levels. 

    The higher the amounts of carbon [CO2,] methane [C4,] and nitrous dioxide [N2O] in the atmosphere, the higher our future global temperatures will be and, our future global heating consequeces will the more severe, more frequent and occur at larger and larger scale. 

     

    (In the illustration above, on the left vertical axis are atmospheric measuring levels for both carbon and nitrous dioxide in parts per million [ppm.] On the right vertical axis, you see the measuring level for atmospheric methane in parts per billion [ppb.])

    Measuring the above three rising atmospheric pollutants from fossil fuel burning is also the best current way to determine if we have or are making honest progress in:

    1. lowering global fossil fuel use,

    2. fixing the runaway global heating extinction emergency or,

    3. if we are failing or being successful at either or both. 

    The illustration above also shows what happened when humanity began the fossil fuel-powered industrial revolution in the late 1700s to early 1800s. (Look where the graph lines rise suddenly.) Across the bottom of the illustration is the last 2,000+ years. The red, blue, and black lines moving from left to right across the illustration tell the painful story of human history and the fossil fuel pollution of our atmosphere.

    It is not difficult to see from the greenhouse gases illustration above, that humanity is in deep, deep trouble.

    One of the world's most respected NASA climate scientists, James Hansen, said that if the atmospheric CO2 level reached and stayed at only the carbon 385 ppm level and was allowed to sit there for many years, this carbon level alone could kick off a climate tipping point and feedback loop "stacking" (domino) effect. He warned that this stacking effect would lead to an unstoppable chain reaction to higher and higher temperatures (also known as  runaway global warming.) 

     

     

    So here is the runaway global heating tough love. Humanity thrived successfully for millennia when atmospheric carbon was at the 270 to 280 ppm-level. We went over the climate cliff in 2015 when we hit carbon 386 ppm level and we entered the beginning stages of runaway global heating.

    Within the next 2-3 years, we will pass the carbon 425 ppm level. When we pass carbon 425 ppm we are already deep into the beginning of the runaway global warming process.

    We would have stayed safe from runaway global warming if we ONLY had stayed below the carbon 350 ppm level. Since we have passed the carbon 386 ppm in 2015, we have already triggered the climate tipping point and feedback loop stacking and falling domino effect.

    We already have activated the crossing of ever more climate tipping points and feedback loops that will keep raising global heating until we finally get close to the required, radical, and painful 2025 reductions in our global fossil fuel use. 

    As of April of 2022, we were at an atmospheric level of carbon 420 parts per million (ppm.)

    From the preceding, one can see that this carbon 420 level is far, far beyond any reasonable and safe atmospheric carbon level and far into the stacking (falling domino) effect of runaway global warming. At the carbon 420 ppm level, our atmospheric carbon level is about 155% greater than the humanity-thriving atmospheric carbon level of 270 ppm.

    How much higher does this percentage of atmospheric carbon have to rise beyond the last safe level of carbon 350 ppm, before we collectively realize we are in a grave and rapidly approaching mass to near-total extinction danger? In many ways, from the climate facts above, it is not difficult to see that in this runaway global heating extinction emergency, humanity is racing at 80 miles an hour toward a steep cliff and a massive drop off.

    To make things worse, the fog on this highway is so dense that one can barely see the road 10 feet ahead. Moreover, the map humanity is using does not show exactly where this dangerous cliff even is. And finally, no single "person" is driving the car racing toward the cliff. 

    It only looks like someone is driving the car and managing global heating. This "no real single driver" factor is because the IPCC has no verification, enforcement, or punishment authority over any nation of the United Nations and and current disagreements between the many UN nations on what is necessary to fix the runaway global heating issue. To make matters worse, many of those UN nations are entirely or primarily dependent on continuing to produce and sell fossil fuels for their own ongoing survival.

    From the above, one can see that allowing an atmospheric carbon level of 425-450 ppm ever to be reached is humanity playing with fire. Humanity is betting the house (in this case the near-total extinction of humanity) that nonexistent or insufficient greenhouse gas remedial or removal "new technologies" will somehow save them at the last minute.

    No matter how you look at it, we are at a completely immoral and insane risk level. We are already living far, far beyond the highest possible rational danger and level of collective risk. In fact, humanity is already extinction unsafe.

     

     

     

    The good news is if we are very, very fortunate, we may have another 3 to 9 years before crossing over the survival-critical 425-450 ppm threshold and into the next even worse level of runaway global warming where global heating and the extinction emergency goes out of our control for centuries to millenia. 

    We are at our last warning and opportunity to act! 

    We have already squandered six decades of climate change and global heating warnings. Over the last six decades, our global heating ineffective actions have now ensured we have and will cross critical climate tipping points causing that about half of humanity will perish by mid-century.

    We either get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, or we face near-total extinction.

    "Our runaway global heating emergency extinction risk level is so high that it is comparable to humanity playing Russian roulette with a gun where every revolver chamber has a bullet in it, and every bullet is an extinction-accelerating tipping point or catastrophe amplifying climate feedback loop." Lawrence Wollersheim

    If our governments successfully act on the runaway global heating emergency, much more of humanity will survive. And, if not, few individuals would ever want to exist in the over-heated world we would leave them. 

    Enjoy your life each day and the relative remaining climate stability while we still have it. Fixing our current climate nightmare is far from guaranteed. If we miss our last-chance opportunity to prevent near-total extinction, we can at least hope to slow it down so more people can survive longer. 

     

    Our runaway global heating extinction threat in a nutshell and our "elevator pitch" 

    For decades, cigarette companies hid the dangers of their products and stopped anti-smoking legislation. Likewise, for decades, the 28 trillion dollar-a-year global fossil fuel industry has hidden fossil fuel's global heating dangers, and they have stopped legislation designed to gradually reduce national and international fossil fuel use.  

    Here is the essential profound truth of our current runaway global heating emergency and our new runaway global heating emergency elevator pitch:

    As the result of ignoring 60 years of valid scientific warnings and our not resolving the climate change and rising global heating emergency, we have already locked ourselves into the beginning phase of runaway global warming and the unavoidable extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. Mass human extinction is now inevitable and unavoidable because we have already gone over the runaway global heating climate cliff. Unfortunately, at our current carbon 420+ ppm level, we are making our extinction occur faster because we will cross even more climate tipping points and amplify climate feedback loops at faster rates. 

    The good news is that we can still save much of the other half of humanity, but only if we get close to reaching the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible. The even better news is that when we finally fix runaway global heating, there will be many positive benefits and possibly a Great Global Rebirth.

    Please use the above unsettling and very short global warming "elevator pitch" whenever possible to open conversations on the climate emergency. Then, when they ask you for more information to explain or justify the pitch, please give them the (JobOneforHumanity.org) website or get their email address and send them the link to the above climate facts which will explain each fact in detail and with documentation. 

    The above elevator pitch should make new people so curious that they will want to read your email link (or go to our website) to discover how possible what you said could be. This new elevator speech is intentionally meant to disrupt the ginormous ignorance and complacency surrounding the painful and realfacts of our runaway global heating extinction emergency. 

    Please do you part and try it out and watch the reactions. Even though a good portion of individuals will initially ignore further research, it plants a seed in their minds so that when they see the next wave of climate disasters unfolding, they will remember what you said to them. 

    So, the only remaining questions are:

    What will you do to push your local, regional and national areas to meet the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets? 

    What will you do to save yourself and the remaining half of humanity that can still be saved? 

    How long before the actions causing global warming and climate change are recognized as serious crimes and prosecuted worldwide? 

    How long before the largest fossil fuel polluters destroying the lives and stability of humanity will be prosecuted for both genocidal and biocidal crimes against humanity and all other life forms?

     

    We have already squandered 60 years of past valid warnings. This IS everyone's last, clear, and urgent call to action before we can no longer manage runaway global heating in a way that will prevent the near-total extinction of humanity. 

     

     

     

    Your 3-step urgent call to personal action

    Step 1: please help share these critical climate facts with everyone who also needs to know about the runaway global heating emergency

    It is beyond grossly unfair and utterly wrong that the older generations have left this unconscionable climate legacy for Generations X, Y, and Z. Please pass these climate facts to Generations X, Y, and Z so that they start making the needed adaptations to extend their lives as long as possible. Of course, the older generations will also be affected. Still, Generations X, Y, Z (and A) will bear the shortest lifespans, the worst suffering, the biggest financial losses, and the most deaths. 

     

     

    Please share these critical climate change and runaway global heating facts everywhere, especially with other worldwide climate and environmental organization executives! Then, maybe they will finally start calling climate change what it is, a runaway global heating extinction emergency. Perhaps, they will finally get serious about forcing our governments to get as close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets so we might yet be able to prevent near-total extinction. 

    Please take one more step to ensuring a safer world for all. Sign your personal climate action pledge by clicking here. 

     

     

     

    Step 2Please click this link and make a pledge to start the actions needed to protect yourself, humanity, and all life on Earth from runaway global heating.

     

     

     

     

    Step 3. Do something about climate change and runaway global heating. Click the image below and it will take you to the Job One for Humanity, Plan B for fixing the Climate and Global Heating.

    "No program that claims to have a solution to climate change and global heating can not be called legitimate unless it is designed and prioritized around knowing when a global heating-driven near-total extinction event will probably occur, how it will occur, and what must be done when to prevent that outcome. The Job One for Humanity four-part program relentlessly follows this critical priority path and deadline policy." Lawrence Wollersheim

    To start Plan B, click here or click the image below.

     

     

     

     


    Receive Our Free Climate Change & Runaway Global Heating Updates!

     

    Version 7.5, 9.31.2022

    If you are interested in understanding the climate science and analysis procedures we used to present the above information, click here for a technical explanation of our climate research process.


  • Past and current reflections and today's big environmental and climate issues

    Our advisory board member Al Urquhart shares his observations and reflections over decades on today's big environmental and climate issues. It is helpful to see the nature of our world over time through his well-informed eyes and mind.

    Read more

  • Urgent New Climate Change Consequence Timetable Change and Alert

    We have just released a critical timeframe update for coming climate consequences and catastrophes based on newly released climate science.

    Read more

  • Comments On Biden's Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 --- A Climate Big Problem?

    The following are important comments and perspectives on the efficacy of the climate provisions by a member of the Job One Advisory Board concerning Bidens's Inflation Reduction Act

    Read more

  • Why does half of humanity still die by about mid-century even if we make the correct global fossil fuel reductions?

    Which do you prefer: partial economic collapse now or total economic collapse later, with the bonus of about half of humanity inevitably going extinct either way? 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    The global warming dilemma that almost all environmental organizations and governments are hiding from you! We call it Garrett's Climate Dilemma after the professor who first exposed it in his published climate research paper.

    In many places on our website, we have mentioned that about half of humanity will die by mid-century and that there's nothing we can do about it because we have wasted 60 years of valid scientific warnings about the climate crisis. This page explains the science behind this dilemma and tragedy and why even if we get close to the correct 2025 global fossil reductions, about half of humanity will have to die by mid-century to save the other half of humanity.

    Please be aware that Garrett's Climate Dilemma will be a dominant reason for the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. But, by no means will it be the only reason. As runaway global heating worsens, the many other primary and secondary runaway global heating consequences will come into play, killing off large portions of humanity.

    A fossil fuel reduction-based global economic collapse and the collapse of global civilization as described below will also equal a global population collapse and the mass extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. This collapse and extinction process is because:

    1. Global mass food production is mainly based on fossil fuels at many levels.

    2. We have waited too long (six decades) to fix the climate and runaway global heating. There is now a long chain of unavoidable climate and extinction-related consequences, crossed tipping points, and feedbacks described here, which will ensure the human population is drastically reduced and that we experience widespread global collapse. And, if everything goes wrong and we never really fix runaway global heating, we will experience near-total collapse and extinction. (Near-total extinction means that 50 to 90+ percent or more of humanity could die, but all of humanity will not go extinct for the reasons discussed on this page.

     

     

    Garrett's Climate Dilemma and the Runaway Global Heating Emergency

    Tim Garrett, professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Utah, has researched the physics of atmospheric thermodynamic change (changing air temperatures) over the history of human civilization. His unsettling research indicates the only workable way left in which to avoid irreversible runaway global warming, and its unthinkable extinction-level consequences will involve allowing our fossil fuel-driven global economy to collapse.

    His research shows that the laws of physics predict that we will have to go into an immediate economic recession or depression to save the future from irreversible runaway global warming and ourselves from extinction. Most of us are not economists, physicists, or climatologists, so this lesson may seem a little difficult to understand. The following summary of Garrett’s research should help:

    1. The core finding of his research is that maintaining only our current levels of economic production and wealth requires continual energy sustenance and supply. Like a living organism, civilization requires energy to not only grow but also to continue to sustain and maintain its current size or wealth.

    2. In today’s terms, this also means that any additional economic production (wealth) equals more carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels. Conversely, fewer carbon emissions from less fossil fuel burning equal less economic production (wealth).

    3. The fixed and direct link between energy sustenance and the additional production of more wealth means that the existence of a financially measurable and viable economy cannot be decoupled from a continuing rise in its energy consumption.

    4. This means that contrary to current popular global heating prediction theories, neither population size nor the population’s standard of living has to be included in the computer modeling for the predictions on what will happen in the future with a growing or shrinking economy and the amount of carbon dioxide that will go into the atmosphere affecting global warming. (Garrett's realization was that global warming is directly linked closely to the increased or decreased carbon levels of increased or decreased Gross Domestic Product [GDP].)

    5. Global atmospheric carbon dioxide emission rates conversely also cannot be unlinked from economic production (wealth) through new or predicted gains in energy efficiency. Greater energy efficiency does not invalidate Garrett’s research demonstrating that greater production (wealth) always equals greater atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions. Also, to consider here are the reverse conservation effects of Jevons’ Paradox.

    6. According to Garrett’s research, even a 50% reduction in total fossil fuel use over the next 50 years will not be enough to keep us below carbon 425-450 ppmv. [See footnote 96.] (425-450 ppmv is of itself a very unsafe level.) Even with this 50% reduction, we will still hit 600 ppmv by the year 2100 (or sooner) and pass three of the four final extinction-triggering climate tipping points. See this page to understand what 450-500 ppmv or 600 ppmv will mean to your future. (Job One has this plan to keep us from crossing this mass extinction dangerous carbon 425-450 ppm level. (Click here for more information on the nightmare we create for ourselves when we cross the 425-450 ppm range, which is the first extinction-triggering tipping point.) 

    7. Keeping carbon emissions at or below the already unsafe level of carbon 450 ppmv will not be achieved by any conservation, increased energy efficiency, or other gradual fossil fuel reduction tactics currently being implemented. To maintain our current standard of living with our growing population without further exacerbating global warming, a new, non-carbon polluting nuclear power plant would have to be built every day. Because this is not currently happening and, in fact, is impossible (even if it was a desirable solution), the only remaining solution to radically reducing fossil fuel use is economic collapse.

    8. For atmospheric CO2 concentrations to remain below 450 ppmv, Garrett’s research suggests there will have to be some combination of an unrealistically rapid rate of energy decarbonization (reduction of fossil fuel use) and its consequent and near-immediate reductions in global wealth. Effectively, it appears that civilization may be in a double-bind dilemma. If civilization does not collapse quickly this century, then CO2 levels will likely end up exceeding 1000 ppmv. At the same time, if CO2 levels exceed 1,000 ppmv, [See footnote 97.] then civilization will gradually tend toward total collapse. (For more about Garrett’s research on the physics of long-run global economic growth issues, click here.   Click here to see the many detailed primary and secondary climate and other consequences that will bring about the collapse of civilization much sooner than 2100, long before carbon 1,000 ppmv is reached.   [See footnote 98.]) 

    9. Garrett also does not envision that we will ever be able to reduce carbon emissions fast enough. In his paper “No Way Out,” [See footnote 99.], he says that “reducing carbon emissions may be a bit like asking an adult to once again become a child. Over millennia, we have collectively built an enormous global infrastructure designed to consume massive amounts of energy. Without destroying this infrastructure, energy will continue to be consumed. Without energy, the circulations and transactions defining the global economy stop. And because so much of this infrastructure is tied to fossil fuel consumption, our economy is wedded to carbon emissions.”

    10. Although it is counter-intuitive, Garrett also states energy consumption rates can rise about twice as fast with rapid decarbonization (fossil fuel use reductions) as with no decarbonization. The reason is that decarbonization aids society's health by limiting global warming. Better health means greater energy consumption, which then leads to a partial offset of any environmental gains that came from decarbonizing in the first place. (Going green is a form of global decarbonization.)

    11. In addition to the many Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) errors described on this page, Garrett also turned his new prediction model on the IPCC’s global warming predictions and discovered two major errors. He demonstrated that the IPCC’s current global warming prediction scenarios substantially underestimate how much carbon dioxide levels will rise for a given level of future economic prosperity and wealth. The two reasons for the IPCC errors are that global carbon dioxide emission rates cannot be unlinked from economic production and wealth creation through any efficiency gains the IPCC uses, and our continuous future global warming can be expected to act as a significant inflationary drag on the real growth of wealth. Because neither of these two essential economic factors was properly accounted for within previous IPCC prediction scenarios, the IPCC has, once again, substantially underestimated the relationship of projected future increased prosperity to increased carbon dioxide levels. By forwarding this rosy and false belief that economic prosperity can be maintained while dramatically reducing fossil fuel use, it seems the IPCC was trying to “have its cake and eat it too.” These serious miscalculations by the IPCC mean their predictions are even more unreliable than has been disclosed on this website here and in Chapter 7 of the new Climageddon book. This also means most of the world has no idea how bad the current global warming emergency really is or that to solve it, we will have to go through a massive global economic downturn. 

     


     

    Garrett does give us some hope in his research for a possible solution when he mentions that if civilization’s ability to adapt to rising global warming and its consequences is extremely low, “...then only a combination of rapid civilization collapse and high decarbonization comes close to achieving a 450 ppmv goal.” [See footnote 100.] (Here, rapid civilization collapse refers directly to the rapid reduction of all fossil fuel use.)

    Garrett’s unsettling research can also suggest that the only remaining possible way that we may be able to maintain or go below the carbon 450 ppmv target [See footnote 101.] to avoid irreversible runaway global warming and keep our economy going fairly well is:

      sudden and drastic global fossil fuel use reductions, and simultaneously all,
    • nations immediately and fully switch to non-carbon-dioxide-emitting green power generation sources. (Neither of which is currently happening, and according to the new MIT research, we will not be able to scale up green energy generation anywhere close to the timeframe needed.)

    It appears Garrett may not believe we currently have either the technical ability and/or the political will to enact the painful solution to replace our fossil fuel energy consumption in time to avoid the worst consequences of runaway global warming. He states that “as the current climate system is tied directly to its unchangeable past, any substantial near-term departure from recently observed acceleration in carbon dioxide emission rates is highly unlikely.”

    “Anyone wishing to see what is to come should examine what has been.” —Machiavelli

    This creates a real double-blind dilemma. If we can't scale up a full global green energy generation replacement in time while we are also making all of the required global fossil fuel reductions, the steep crash of the global economy will financially destroy us. If we continue as we are now, and civilization does not collapse quickly (within this century), carbon dioxide levels will likely exceed carbon 600-1,000 ppmv and condemn us to the last near-total extinction phases of runaway global warming.

    Assuming Tim Garrett’s research is correct about how the gross world product (GWP) and civilization’s accumulated wealth is intrinsically and directly linked to the total carbon levels present in the atmosphere, without building a nuclear reactor every day, or fully scaling up global green energy generation to replace all global fossil fuel reductions, (both of which are impossible) our only remaining solution is to let the economy crash in stages now or completely collapse later, bringing most of the civilization down with it.

    Ethically, this is a simple choice, but in reality, it is a logistic nightmare. How do we educate the people of the world that to save the future and future generations, they must now expect less, have less, and be less economically comfortable?

    In a world that has already conditioned us to demand and expect more, the message that we must all make painful sacrifices for the survival of future generations and civilization will be a very hard sell. This educational task might be nearly impossible because it requires a degree of personal maturity to delay immediate self-gratification for a collective reward in the future. It is completely unrealistic to think most people will voluntarily make the required and painful sacrifices without enforcement by the world's governments.  

    Very few individuals, non-profit ecological organizations, corporations, or nations are ready to hear this tough runaway global heating solution message, much less act upon the drastic 2025 global fossil fuel reductions we now need to make. But this is exactly what we all need to hear, begin discussing, and start preparing for and doing to survive. 

    Although many new jobs and businesses will be created by transferring to green energy generation, these new sources of revenue will not protect the economy from the loss of old fossil fuel industry-related jobs and businesses. As we ride out the coming economic hardships and transition from reliance on fossil fuel energy generation to green or other safer energy generation, we will have to learn somehow to accept these harsh financial and other realities.

    There is both bad news and good news in Garrett’s research. The bad news is that if we don't radically reduce fossil fuel use at an exponentially rapid rate (as described in the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets), which currently sustains a viable rising economy, our atmospheric carbon ppm concentrations will continue to rise. We will continue moving toward the later near-total extinction phases of runaway global warming.

    This mass die-off is primarily because modern agriculture completely depends on fossil fuel fertilizers and equipment running on fossil fuels. When these items are no longer available, we will be unable to produce nearly enough food for our ballooning global population. 

    Here again, is the political dilemma. If we do not cut global fossil fuel use to get close to the 2025 targets, we will begin to experience many of the primary and secondary consequences described on this page, and about 50% of the global population will die by mid-century. If we do cut global fossil fuel use to get close to the 2025 targets, about 50% of the global population still dies by mid-century due to the collapse of fossil fuel-driven modern agriculture.

    The good news is that we can eventually secure a prosperous economy and a safe future if we persuade our politicians to realize there will be no possible long-term economic prosperity or a future for about 50-90+% of humanity without immediate and radical fossil fuel reductions and the other government actions described on this page.

    In summary, Garrett's research points toward the unbearable idea that the short-term collapse of our economy and the death of about 50% of the world's population due to the loss of fossil fuels) by about mid-century may become a required action if we are going to save ourselves from an unthinkable global warming catastrophe. If you still don't believe this is valid and you are scientifically minded, take a look at Garrett’s paper called “No Way Out. [See footnote 102.] (Be sure to go to the end of his study after the references and also look at his many prediction graphs.)

     

     

    We are caught in a terrible transitional energy, economy, and survival dilemma. Because there is no quick global green or other energy generation transitional fix, the only way out is that we must drastically cut fossil fuel use now, and we will suffer severe financial hardship and a massive loss of life. If we don't drastically cut fossil fuel use now, we will suffer far greater than just financial hardship in the too near future. If we do not get close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets, we will experience not just the loss of about half of humanity by mid-century, we will experience near-total human extinction (as much as 50 - 90+% of humanity.)

    If the economy is going to have to go into a steep recession or depression no matter what to save us, it is wiser to get the needed painful changes out of the way as quickly as possible and save the future for our children and future generations.

    Other Key Facts and Observations

    1. As of 8.23.2022, we are currently not making anything even close to the required radical cuts in fossil fuel use to reduce the carbon going into our atmosphere to prevent massive global temperature increases, horrendous climate calamities, and far sooner than imagined extinction. A 2017 research paper in Science lead-authored by Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, concluded that global carbon emissions would have to be cut in half by 2020, then cut in half again by 2030, and then cut in half again each decade out to 2050 to keep us safe. This means that In order for us to keep global temperature anywhere even close to levels where most of humanity can survive, fossil fuel emissions need to be slashed by about 75 percent by 2030, and by nearly 95 percent by 2050 to stay within a safe climate zone. (Please see the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reductions here. The 2017 study did not account for all needed fossil fuel reductions.)
    2. To grasp how difficult these cuts will be, imagine that in the next three years, you personally will have to cut all of your home, auto, and business uses of fossil fuels by 50%, then cut another 50% from that point within the next 10 years and then cut another 50% in each of the following decades. Citizens of the world who did not fully understand both the urgency and importance of why they needed to make these radical, immediate, and painful sacrifices would literally throw out any politician or even overthrow governments who tried to enforce these kinds of radical energy and fossil fuel usage cuts to their current comfortable or subsistence lifestyles and livelihoods. 
    3. It is highly improbable we will ever make the critically needed cuts to our fossil fuel use. There are several reasons for this. One is that each year we delay making these needed radical fossil fuel usage cuts means that any future cuts will need to be even more extreme, which makes them even less likely to be done because of the even worse immediate hardship they will impose globally. Secondly, because of Professor Garrett's Global Warming Dilemma, which you have read in the article above.

    But, there is still hope and many things you can do to help create a better world.

    Click here to learn about the Job One, Plan B for how to prepare for, adapt to, and slow and lessen the runaway global heating extinction emergency.

    Summary

    1. Garrett's Climate Dilemma will be a dominant reason for the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. But, by no means will it be the only reason. As runaway global heating worsens, the many other primary and secondary runaway global heating consequences will come into play, killing off large portions of humanity.

    2. Sooner or later, our politicians will decide to radically cut global fossil fuel use by enforced rationing simply because the outcome of not doing so would be unthinkable, and nothing else has worked for 60 years. This means that you, your family, and your business need to get busy with your Plan B preparations and adaptations to decide for yourselves in which half of humanity you will fall.

    3. (Click here for more information on the nightmare we create for ourselves when we cross the 425-450 ppm range, which is the first extinction-triggering tipping point.) 

    Footnotes

    Please note this article and footnotes below are from the book Climageddon which discusses the Garrett Global warming dilemma at length.

    96 Note: ppmv is different from carbon parts per million (ppm and CE carbon equivalent, CO2e). The distinction is that ppmv is used to describe all trace gases found in the atmosphere, such as sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and other pollutants, by volume.

    97 Tim Garrett, interview by Alex Smith, Radio Ecoshock, October 19, 2011, transcript. http://www.ecoshock.org/downloads/climate2010/ES_Garrett_101119_LoFi.mp3

    98 Tim Garrett. "The physics of long-run global economic growth." Utah.edu. 2014. http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~tgarrett/Economics/Economics.html

    99 Tim Garrett. "No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change." arXiv. January 9 2012. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1010.0428v3.pdf

    100 Tim Garrett. "No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change." arXiv. January 9 2012. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1010.0428v3.pdf

    101 Note: ppmv is different from carbon parts per million ppm and CE carbon equivalent, CO2e. The distinction is that ppmv is used to describe all trace gases found in the atmosphere such as sulphur dioxide, carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and other pollutants by volume.

    102 Tim Garrett. "No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change." arXiv. January 9, 2012. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1010.0428v3.pdf

    If you are interested in understanding the science and analysis procedures we used to present the above information, click here for a technical expiation of our climate research process.

    Updated 9.31.2022

     

     

     



  • Biden's New Climate Change Bill, Far Too little, Far Too Late and, Half of Humanity Dead by Mid-Century

    They used horribly wrong fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines for saving humanity, now they are celebrating their bill.

    Read more

  • Why is "Thwaites" the MONSTER Climate Tipping Point Everyone Always Needs to Be Watching?

    Everyone should pay very close attention every time they hear the word "Thwaites" in the news. Thwaites is the name of the Thwaites "doomsday glacier" in Antarctica. It is the size of England or Florida and near its very dangerous tipping point.

     

     

     

    When the Thwaites doomsday glacier collapses, global climate consequences will worsen rapidly. The Thwaites collapse will quickly raise the sea level worldwide by about 2-3 feet.

    This sea level rise will occur far faster than we humans can adapt. 

    Worse yet, after the Thwaites glacier collapses, the glaciers behind it, now securely sitting on top of an Antarctic mountain range, will begin sliding off those mountains into the sea. These other glaciers sliding into the sea will raise the global sea level by another 7-10 feet. 

    When one understands the consequences of the Thwaites doomsday glacier collapse below, one will grasp the unheard-of scale and scope of the global economic, social, and political turmoil that will soon be occurring.

     

     

    Humanity's biggest question: How soon will the Thwaites Doomsday Glacier collapse into the sea?

    A new article in the Smithsonian magazine predicted the Thwaites glacier could collapse irreversibly as soon as 3 to 5 years from 2022. Because glacier scientists have recently developed new measuring tools, procedures, and methodologies, they hope to get an even more accurate collapse date soon.

    Getting this date right as soon as possible is critical because the speed at which huge pieces of this Florida-sized glacier are already breaking off (known as calving) is rapidly increasing. For example, the Thwaites glacier calving process has increased by six times over the last 30 years.

     

    How fast will the first 2-3 feet of sea level rise once the Thwaites doomsday glacier collapses into the sea?

    The first foot of sea level rise will likely occur by about 2030 or sooner. The additional and certain 1-2 feet of global sea level rise from the Thwaites collapse will likely occur over the next decade or sooner. (The science for telling us a more precise date range for how soon ALL of the Thwaites glacier ice will melt {once it is entirely in the ocean} is still being refined.) 

    How bad will the consequences get when the Thwaites doomsday glacier collapses?

    When Thwaites collapses and it melts fully in the oceans, the eventual 2-3 foot sea level rise will cause a massive migration away from the coasts and an economic and social crisis.

    Humanity will lose hundreds of trillions of dollars in coastal property. This huge loss is because about half of the human population lives in the world's coastal areas, and some of the world's largest and most important cities are on the coasts.

     

     

    Once the date of the Thwaites glacier collapse is published, the world's largest global sell-off of affected coastal real estate will begin. This will be due to the sea level rise facts of continual extensive flooding over larger and larger areas over the following decades. There will be massive real estate and business losses that will stress to the very edge of collapse even the world's strongest economies. 

    When Thwaites fully melts, its 2-3 feet of flooding alone will destroy much of the coastal infrastructure (roads, hospitals, food storage and distribution, sewage and water treatment, medical facilities, port importing and exporting functionality, energy transport or generation, etc.)

    Moreover, in the stronger nations, the collapse of Thwaites will trigger a managed retreat from all affected coastal areas over the following decades. This massive managed retreat is inevitable because the continually increasing sea level-driven flooding will be both irreversible and certain (first the Thwaites 2-3 feet, then the 7-10 feet more from the glaciers behind it.) 

    Attempting a managed retreat at the massive scale of coastal damage that will be happening will still be completely unmanageable for most of the nations of the world. Because of this widespread unmanageability, there will be unheard of economic, social, and political chaos. (See the map image below of only 2 feet of sea level rise flooding. This will give you an idea of the scale of catastrophe the US alone will try to manage. Unfortunately, this flooding map image does not show what will happen on the west coast of the US or for other costs nations.)

    Imagine moving hundreds of millions of people, businesses, and infrastructure in less than a decade or two after the initial Thwaites collapse date. In this global mega-climate catastrophe, governments, emergency services, and charities will rapidly deplete their support resources.

    Nations will break under this climate catastrophe's horrendous costs and social stresses. Governments will be forced to radically increase taxes and drastically cut national social programs and safety networks to cover the many trillions of dollars in Thwaites-related climate damages. Eventually, most nations will have to declare martial law and suspend many freedoms and human rights to maintain any semblance of law and order during a catastrophe and emergency of such a widespread and global magnitude.

     

     

    With only 2- 3 feet of sea-level rise, most of the world's weaker nations and economies will collapse from the cost of the flooding's direct and indirect damages. As many nations collapse, this will create more migration, global conflicts, and related problems.

    The collapse of the Thwaites glacier and the glaciers behind it will also significantly increase worldwide weather and climate extremes. 

    If you thought the world had a housing problem today, imagine how bad the housing shortage will get after the first foot of Thwaites sea level quick rise. Hundreds of millions of people will have to move. Now add the next 1-2 foot of Thwaites-related sea level rise where a billion or more coastal inhabitants must leave their homes.

    We strongly recommend reading about the primary and secondary consequences of global heating. When Thwaites collapses, it will activate or trigger some of the primary global heating consequences. But unfortunately, it will also trigger many even worse secondary global heating consequences. Once you understand the sudden global nightmare when the Thwaites collapses, you will waste no time getting started with the Job One Plan B to protect your loved ones and your business. 

    And finally, what will the world be like when the glaciers behind Thwaites slide into the sea, raising the sea level another 7-10 feet? Half of humanity (about 4 billion people) will have to move away from the coasts. Coastal highways, homes, ports, and businesses will have to either move or adapt to severe, fast moving, and unthinkable changes.

    With an eventual 10-13 total feet of Thwaites-related sea level rise, the world will look nothing like today's world within just a few decades. Imagine what will the global housing crisis be like then? 

    How soon will the other glaciers behind Thwaites slide down the Antarctica mountains into the sea?

    Once Thwaites collapses into the sea, the other glaciers sliding off the Antarctica mountains process cannot be stopped. The other glaciers will slide into the sea over an extended period of decades. Many variables still determine the date range for when humanity will have to deal with the additional 7-10 foot sea level rise. 

     

     

    Why the collapse and full melt dates for the Thwaites doomsday glacier (and the glaciers behind it) are the world's most valuable information?

    The Thwaites collapse and major global climate tipping point is why governments, militaries, intelligence agencies, hedge funds, investment bankers, and many other ultra-wealthy entities are racing to find out exactly how many years are left before Thwaites finally collapses into the sea. 

    Accordingly, finding the most accurate collapse date has become the world's most valuable information. This is true because of the resulting loss of life and the loss of hundreds of trillions of dollars in property, not to mention what the mass migration of billions of people will do to the political, economic, and social stability of even the strongest nations.

    When the next more accurate Thwaites collapse date is determined, our governments (or the wealthy private enterprises sponsoring private research) may not share this date with the general public. This is because of the obvious financial or political advantages.

    But, let's hope some independent university researchers get this collapse information first and publish it widely. If the date of the Thwaites collapse is made public, billions of poor people worldwide who will be most affected will have as much warning and preparation time as possible. The collapse date widely known will significantly lower the loss of human life and help reduce the resulting economic, social, and political chaos.)

     

     

     

    Why share this life-changing climate fact now? 

    1. Thwaites is the current most dangerous and imminent climate change consequence and runaway global heating tipping point that will trigger the most severe and certain damage over the largest possible global area in just a few years!

    2. It is the climate catastrophe that individuals, businesses, and nations must be prepared for well before the Thwaites rising sea level flooding occurs.

    3. When Thwaites does collapse, it will be your last realistic chance to activate your personal climate emergency Plan B before it is too late. Once that collapse date is public knowledge, even though the sea level will not reach the 2-3 foot level for several decades, millions of prudent individuals and investors worldwide will simultaneously start buying safer land, homes, emergency food, and survival supplies, causing unheard-of shortages and soaring prices. 

    4. As the soonest, most dangerous climate tipping point and global climate disruptor, Thwaites will radically and quickly change our whole world's current political, economic, and social stability. 

     

     

    What can you do to prepare for the Thwaites doomsday glacier collapse and crossing this global cataclysmic climate tipping point?

    1. While stopping the Thwaites glacier from collapsing is no longer under our control, it may only be after this horrendous global climate cataclysm that the world will take the runaway global heating extinction emergency seriously. Maybe after the Thwaites collapse, our governments will finally start doing something effective to save as much of humanity and our future as is still possible.

    2. Maybe after the Thwaites collapse, we will even begin to cooperate internationally and create some form of global climate governance that has the power to make new climate laws, enforce them, and severely punish any climate law violators, no matter in what nation they exist.

    3. You can immediately get busy on the Job One for Humanity, Climate Change Plan B. It will help you prepare for what is coming and show you how to stop other severe climate consequences that we can still control.

    4. You can push your government to get the urgent climate actions done on this page so that we do not soon cross over more mass extinction accelerating climate tipping points such as those found on this page.

    5. You can send this article to your friends and loved ones. (Don't let them get caught unprepared and unknowingly at severe risk.) 

    6. Please be sure to also send this article to your local, regional, and national politicians to wake them up to the next major global disruptor and danger of the runaway global heating extinction emergency. (Unfortunately, our politicians and intelligence agencies have thus far failed to inform their nation's citizens of the imminent Thwaites collapse. This gross political failure exposes their nation's unprepared citizens to untold needless suffering, financial loss. and death.)

    In Summary

    The Thwaites glacier collapse catastrophe described above is why you should tune your ears to any news you may hear about the Thwaites glacier's final collapse timetable. This is especially true now that a new glacier measuring methodology and technology have been developed, allowing those with access to it to discover an even more accurate collapse date. 

    1. The sudden collapse of the Thwaites doomsday glacier will be the largest single climate catastrophe ever, and it will be a massive global disruptor of the stability of our economic, social, and political systems.

    2. We live in a highly globalized, highly interconnected world. We will painfully learn what that means when the Thwaites doomsday glacier collapses. Not long after the Thwaites collapses, the whole world will simultaneously experience the same devastating and highly disruptive climate consequences.

    3. How fast Thwaites melts entirely in the ocean will determine the future quality of life for billions worldwide. (That initial 2 to 3 feet of sea level rise and its consequences do not even consider the additional 7 to 10 feet rise that will occur later.)

    4. Hundreds of millions to billions of people with low or no resilience (because of poverty or previous climate catastrophes) will lose their lives because of the direct, indirect, and immediate and long-term consequences of the Thwaites collapse.

    5. The many related consequences of the Thwaites doomsday glacier collapse will echo worldwide. It will not matter if you do not live on a coast. Most of humanity will eventually experience many of these interconnected consequences and losses. 

    6. Of itself, the Thwaites collapse will not cause ALL of humanity to go extinct. Still, it and our other runaway global heating consequences combined will eventually kill many of us and make existence a living hell for humanity. And finally,

    7. They call it the doomsday glacier for a reason! When Thwaites does break off, it is the next major climate cliff. Let's hope you have already begun our Job One for Humanity, Plan B, Parts 1 and 2.

    8. If you have doubts about the economic, social, and political chaos that the Thwaites collapse will eventually create, please click this link and read about how Thwaites will also intersect and interact with many of the other devastating primary and secondary consequences of the runaway global heating extinction emergency. (Please also note that while the Thwaites climate catastrophe will be global and horrific, it will not bring about humanity's total extinction for the powerful reasons discussed on this page.)

    8. To see what our governments worldwide must do immediately to lessen the many damages from the collapse, click here.

    Take a moment and imagine how a steady, certain, several decade-long, 2-3-foot global sea level rise might affect you and your future. Imagine how many of the world's major cities are on coasts.

    How will it affect the distribution of the many things you need to buy to live? How will it affect the billions of people (mostly the poor) that will be harmed? How will you deal with the permanently flooded coastal roads, homes, businesses, and lost infrastructure like coastal water and sewage treatment facilities, docks and ports, coastal energy transfer or generation facilities, etc? 

    Now imagine what this steady, inevitable, and gargantuan financial loss and massive social and political disruption will do to your own local area, region, or nation. And, never forget that it will take centuries to thousands of years to restore the glacier balance once we stop using fossil fuels.

    We hope that you now understand the Thwaites Doomsday glacier threat. We also hope you will soon begin doing everything possible to prepare for it long before it occurs. 

    The Job One Research Team

     

    Breaking Critical Climate News for 8.12.2022

    Above we have the shocking Thwaites "doomsday glacier" collapse timeframe underestimation issue. Yesterday, a new study from Finland warned the world that previous climate computer models which predicted that temperatures would only rise in the Arctic by double are dead wrong.

    Instead, the new study states that Arctic temperatures have risen four times higher than predicted compared to rising sub-arctic temperatures.

    This is terrible climate news because it means: 

    1. Our existing climate computer models for predicting future climate consequences and timeframes must be redone immediately.

    2. Weather around the world will become much more unpredictable, unseasonable, and extreme because the Artic directly and indirectly controls or affects the weather for much of the world.

    3. There will be considerably more crop failures and lower crop yields than predicted because of the Artic-influenced extreme and unseasonable weather.

    4. More starvation and soaring food prices will result from more crop failures and low crop yields.

    For years, we have told our readers that current computer model consequence and timeline projections are underestimated by at least 20-40%. Still, this 4 times what they thought level of Artic global warming underestimation shocked even us. 

    Unfortunately, it also will significantly accelerate many of the other climate consequences found on this page.

    A realization is developing within the Job One organization that, in several essential areas, runaway global warming is moving considerably faster than our predictions. Accordingly, we have moved up website predictions timetables and sped up our emergency preparation and relocation plans. How are you adapting to this acceleration of consequences?

    Because runaway global heating consequences are accelerating so fast as of August 15, 2022, we also had to update the Climate Change and Runaway Global Feating Doomsday Clock. 

     

     

    (Editors notes: In 2017, we told our readers about the dangers of the Thwaites glacier, but the technology had not been developed to get a more accurate date regarding when it would collapse into the sea. In 2017, we also told our readers that from 2025 to 2031, the world would experience an enormous intensification of global warming consequences. 

    Some climate models say it could take a decade or longer for Thwaites to collapse. However, these longer-time collapse projections do not include some critical variables.

    This intensification is because of new and old crossed climate tipping points and the reasons listed on this page. God help us if our governments, military, and the police of the local areas most affected are not already getting prepared for this well-predicted soon-arriving cataclysmic global climate event.)


  • published The Thwaites Glacier Climate Nightmare in Blog 2022-08-05 11:37:55 -0700

    Why is "Thwaites" the MONSTER Climate Tipping Point Everyone Always Needs to Be Watching?

    Everyone should pay very close attention every time you hear the word "Thwaites" in the news. Thwaites is the name of the Thwaites "doomsday glacier" in Antarctica. It is the size of England or Florida and near its very dangerous tipping point.

    Read more

  • published Our July 2022 Global Warming Newsletter in Blog 2022-08-03 12:52:50 -0700

    Our July 2022 Global Warming Newsletter, Good Climate News and Not-So-Good News

    This month's July newsletter is about some good climate news and not-so-good climate news. It also contains new climate articles, updates, and a special editorial. 

    Read more

  • published Volunteer Getting Started Guide in Volunteer 2022-07-22 15:51:08 -0700

    Our guide for what you need to know to get started volunteering today at Job One for Humanity

    Overview

    This volunteer guide contains almost everything a self-organizing volunteer at Job One for Humanity should know. Never forget that as a Job One for Humanity volunteer, you are doing vitally important work for your own and the world's future!

    Job One depends completely upon enthusiastic self-organizing volunteers to take its comprehensive, unbiased, and uncensored climate change analysis and climate change remedies into the world to educate others and when appropriate challenge those who present false or misleading climate information.

    If it were not for the courageous efforts of Job One's many volunteers providing our organization's essential dissemination and climate education, much of Job One's climate analysis and recommended remedial actions (The Job One, Plan B) would never be seen or enacted.

    This page contains the following sections:

    1. Prologue.

    2. All volunteers need to have this basic understanding of our runaway global heating emergency and the benefits of fixing it. (There are only three things to learn that will help ensure your success.)

    3. How to correctly copy materials on our website for your local use emailing, etc.

    4. Why our volunteers do not waste valuable time and effort trying to educate or convince certain types of individuals?

    5. Regularly share your successes and problems with us for several reasons.

    6. Critical Legal information for ALL Job One for Humanity volunteers (including special information if you will get involved in protest actions.)

    7. It is vital for volunteers to understand the difference between prioritized, effective critical path Runaway Global Heating actions that meet key extinction prevention deadlines and simple climate change progress. 

    8. Additional important volunteer information. (This section is for individuals outside of the US or who speak languages other than English. It also answers some common questions volunteers sometimes have.)

    9. Our strongly recommended first project for all new volunteers.

    10. Become the change you want to see in the world. (Making personal progress on the Job One Plan B helps you be a better volunteer.)

    11. How to wisely start any project that you choose. (The simple key steps to get your first project rolling.)

    12. About the Job One for Humanity, a not-for-profit climate think tank and social benefit educational organization. (This section is important if people ask where you get your climate information.)

    13. How Our Climate Research, Review, and Dialectical Meta-Systemic Analysis processes are Unique. (This section is important if people ask about our organization's processes for how it does its climate analysis.)

    14. About the Mission and Goals of Job One for Humanity. (This section will cover all of Job One's short and long-term mission goals so you can see our "big picture" plan.)

    15. Conclusion

     

     

     

    1. Prologue

    Over the last three decades, no climate conference, no government action, and no mass educational movement by any climate or environmental group have done anything to slow or stop the increase of dangerous carbon in the atmosphere. In fact, global warming-causing carbon in the atmosphere has gone from increasing gradually to rising exponentially. This exponential carbon increase signals not just failure but that the runaway global heating extinction emergency is getting far, far worse.

    Lower carbon levels [C02] in the atmosphere in parts per million [ppm] are the best measure of whether we are making progress. Increased carbon levels will mean increasing heat.

     

     

     

     

    The above painful facts mean that what is currently being done in the climate and environmental education movements is not working! Therefore, we cannot keep doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. We have to radically shift our tactics to whatever will work with the extremely short time we have left.

    The powerful way the Job One for Humanity non-profit organization educates is through its self-organizing and independent volunteers. Our worldwide volunteers look at our existing projects and select one or create a project of their own that forwards the mission and goals of our organization as defined on this page.

    Then they co-ordinate with other volunteers as needed and plan and execute their projects. The volunteer managers at Job One do not micro-manage or supervise volunteer projects other than to answer volunteer questions when asked.

    Our volunteers are genuinely independent and self-organizing, and that is what is precisely what is needed to grow a runaway global heating educational movement as fast as it has to grow to save as much of humanity and biological life as is still possible.

    If you are considering becoming a volunteer or already a volunteer, the rest of this page contains almost everything you need to know to succeed.

    "You never need someone else's permission to do good in the world." Anonymous

    2. All volunteers should be informed with a basic understanding of the current runaway global heating emergency and the benefits of fixing it

    If you have not read about these things already, there are four essential things needed for volunteers to have a basic understanding of the runaway global heating emergency so they can speak to others about this emergency confidently:

    a. One must understand the current climate situation as described on this ten critical climate facts page. This illustrated page and its deeper science verification links are all you need to know about the runaway global heating emergency to start and sound like a climate expert or scientist.

    b. It is even more essential to understand the many benefits you will help create when we get this climate nightmare fixed. When you know what you are working for and not just what you are trying to prevent, you are far more likely to stay motivated when things are not going well. Click here to read the global heating benefits page. It is the most read page on our website with over 2 million views. 

    c. One should also understand why media climate reports are underestimated by about 20-40%. This underestimation factor means the climate predictions the media are stating about how bad the climate will be in the future are:

    1. about 20 to 40% less than they will be, and,

    2. they will arrive about 20 to 40% sooner than the media tells you. 

    This underestimation factor is a great climate conversation opener because so few people know about something that will be so important to their future. Furthermore, if you do not actively educate others about this underestimation and why it is happening, they will keep believing the grossly underestimated climate summary reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change spread by the media worldwide. Then, falsely thinking they are safe and there is little real urgency because of the underestimated media, they will do little to nothing to help fix our accelerating global heating emergency. (Click here to read all about this media underestimation.)

    d. All volunteers should also understand why we use particular climate change-related language at Job One. There is real power in using the most concise terms when discussing climate change and runaway global heating. This page will help you speak about the climate change subject with words that will most accurately state our current climate situation and help create the most consequential changes.

    3. How to correctly copy materials on our website for your local use

    As an independent volunteer, in your efforts to help educate others, you may use (or restate) all of the non-members-only climate and runaway global heating materials you find on our website. (You may not copy and distribute anything you find in the Members section of our website.) However, we strongly recommend that you avoid rephrasing the science content of our web pages. Climate science is full of complexities and nuances easily misunderstood or not seen. 

    If you choose to restate or create your own climate or other materials using our materials, please always list Job One for Humanity as the source material and create a link back to the Job One for Humanity original page materials that you are using or rewriting! This way, people will ask us technical questions about the science, and they can see our linked references and methodology.

    In any independent climate videos or other written materials you may produce, always say that the information in your videos or writings represents your humble opinion! In the US (and many developed countries,) as long as something is clearly labeled as your personal opinion, you cannot be successfully sued for saying any opinion or sharing any opinion. (IMHO, at the bottom of articles or videos is short for "in my humble opinion.")

    Please also note that our educational materials are not meant for adolescents under 16 years old because of their serious and adult nature. Please allow children under 16 to be children and do not force them to deal with such an adult and upsetting matter.

     

    4. Why our volunteers do not waste their valuable time and effort trying to educate or convince certain types of individuals

    Here are some tips on where and how to spend you time educating about the runaway global heating emergency. Once they have shared copies of our climate materials (or links to our climate materials,) our volunteers should not waste valuable time trying to educate or convince anyone in the following categories:

    a. climate deniers, climate trolls, individuals without open minds, or those who have a hidden (or transparent) vested financial interests in the profits of the fossil fuel industry or fossil fuel economy,

    b. those who do not or will not invest the time to carefully read the science or the time to think deeply about what they have read, or

    c. those who simply do not have the intellectual bandwidth to grasp even the central easier ideas of the vast complexity of the interconnectedness and the interdependencies of the climate system and its subsystems.

    The Job One for Humanity nonprofit organization is not here to convince people in one-on-one online or offline debates that we are in a runaway global heating extinction emergency! Instead, we provide honest climate data and analysis on our website and then allow individuals the time to read and think about that information privately and carefully. Once they have done so, reasonable individuals will make their own decisions about the dangers and reality of the runaway global heating emergency.

    There is no time left to waste on individuals or organizations that will only suck up immeasurable amounts of your time and deny climate realities or do nothing. The individuals mentioned above seldom, if ever, change their minds about the runaway global heating emergency. In fact, if they can't figure out the right climate facts by quietly reading and evaluating our extensive website information, it is not likely that any amount of educating or convincing that you do will ever make any difference whatsoever. 

    After 12 years of dealing with such individuals, we have found that the best policy is to simply ignore them. We discovered that almost all of them have never even read much climate science or the information on our website. They simply hold onto whatever climate opinions they had before engaging with us, no matter what climate science we send to them to read and evaluate for themselves.

    We have also discovered that some of these kinds of individuals will near completely ignore discussing substantive climate science or its details and merits in the posting or article. Instead, they will focus most of their negative comments or wild and unfounded attacks on the individual posting or responding personality.

    We do not spend additional time educating another type of individual We do not waste time with any individuals who psychologically or emotionally are incapable of accepting any idea that humanity could soon go near-totally extinct because of the well-documented consequences of rising runaway global heating.

    This runaway global heating extinction idea creates so much psychological and emotional stress within them that accepting the possibility or probability that runaway global heating extinction could be real would emotionally or psychologically seriously destabilize them and their lives so much that they must reject the concept of runaway global heating-driven extinction at all costs! If they do not reject the reality of a possible or coming runaway global heating extinction, they will suffer the pain and tension of unreconcilable cognitive dissonance

    For their health and well-being, do not engage with this kind of individual should you meet them.

    And finally, the biggest underlying reason we ask our volunteers and team members not to spend time educating or convincing the individuals named above is that we are honestly almost out of time to prevent a runaway global heating-driven extinction. We do not have enough time left to spend on these types of individuals we could be working with those individuals who are ready, have the bandwidth, and I've already done some deep thinking about the issue.

    But, the good news is that there are many reasons, open, intelligent, internally secure, and mature enough individuals who are willing to read, think for themselves, and then decide upon the merits of the climate facts they have discovered, no matter how bad those facts might be.

    Spend your time with them, and we have a chance to save up to 50% of humanity We are in the 11th hour, at best, we have another 3-9 years (from 2025-2031) to prevent a near-total human extinction event.

    Never forget that Job One for Humanity is racing to put out a REAL fire. As the Job One for Humanity fire engine rolls by, some will not like its color, and others will say the siren is too loud or the fire engine is going too fast. When racing to a real fire and emergency, you certainly don't stop dealing with such things of far lesser importance; you just continue racing to your destination and put out the fire.

    5. Regularly share your successes, suggestions, and problems with us for several reasons.

    Because almost all of our self-organizing volunteers are working remotely and independently online around the world, unless you share your challenges or problems with us, we will not be aware of them so that we can bring our experience and knowledge to help you. Additionally, unless you regularly share your successes with us, other volunteers will not benefit from your wisdom and experience in their projects.

    Please stay in regular touch with us with wins or problems by emailing us at ([email protected]) whenever you need help or have done something wonderful so we can share it with other volunteers.

     

    6. Critical Legal information for ALL Job One for Humanity volunteers (including special information if you will get involved in protest actions.)

    We have many worldwide independent, self-organizing volunteers forwarding our climate and runaway global heating analysis and remedial plans. Because you operate independently of our organization, please do not ever represent yourself as our legal agents or representatives unless we have given you this special legal status from us in writing! 

    Also, never use our Job One for Humanity name or logo on anything you independently produce or publish that is not our unaltered authentic website materials with a link to our original web page without our prior written permission! 

    As an independent, self-organizing volunteer, you are not authorized agents or legal representatives of the Job One for Humanity Organization. Only our board of directors may make policy or position statements, take public actions, or make public statements that officially represent our research or non-profit organization.

    Job One for Humanity does not have any form of a central command center that either directs or selects your or any volunteer's independent projects. As a volunteer, only you choose, plan, and execute your projects to help resolve the runaway global heating extinction emergency. We may answer your climate questions or offer moral support for actions in alignment with our policies, but we will never tell you what to do or say.

    And finally, never do anything illegal or violent. We NEVER endorse or support ANY illegal or violent activity. If you engage in any unlawful or violent activity, it will be you and not us that could (or will be) held legally responsible by local authorities for your actions. 

    Our organization is absolutely against all physical violence or violent revolution. We only endorse peaceful protest and peaceful civil disobedience that would make Martin Luther King, Mahatma Gandhi, and Nelson Mandela proud.

    Please also note that our educational materials are not meant for adolescents under 16 years old because of their serious and adult nature. Please allow children under 16 to be children and do not force them to deal with such an adult and upsetting matter.

    If you get involved in any climate protest actions, be sure to read this page on necessary climate disruption and civil disobedience. 

     

    7. It is wise for volunteers to understand the difference between prioritized, effective critical path Runaway Global Heating actions that meet key extinction prevention deadlines and simple climate change progress 

    Volunteers will hear lots of people claim we are making climate progress, but that progress is not necessarily what is critically needed to meet extinction preventing climate deadlines.

    Many things are being done by climate and environmental groups worldwide that can and should be honored as climate change and runaway global heating progress. Unfortunately, we have so little time left to save ourselves from near-total extinction; we must now focus only on those prioritized, truly effective critical path climate actions that will successfully achieve crucial extinction-prevention deadlines. Unfortunately, these truly effective prioritized, critical path climate actions are also the most difficult.

    To create a climate change critical path action plan, one would first have to know the most critical deadline and the point where climate change and runaway global heating truly go beyond our control. Unfortunately, many climate activists and environmental organizations do not honestly know where this critical survival deadline is! 

    Consequently, they develop climate change action programs that do not fit the true urgency of our emergency. Fortunately, this critical climate change deadline is known and available here, so they can quickly correct this once attention is called to this information.

    If climate and environmental education and action organizations do not shift their mission tactics away from the many feel-good, off-critical path actions that produce minor climate progress and cannot save us in time, we are in very deep trouble. 

    Therefore, if you see any climate and environmental organizations focusing on many feel-good, off-critical path climate progress minor steps designed (often to keep members motivated and donating,) it is necessary to disrupt them and these activities as well.

    With these types of climate and environmental organizations, start with our climate educational tactics first! Let them see the correct climate extinction deadline we all need to work toward. Then, once they see their minor climate progress actions in the light of "all hands on deck" for the rapidly approaching runaway global heating extinction point of no return, many will change strategies. Many of them also will begin to work on critical path actions like those found in Part Four and Part Three of the Job One Climate and Runaway Global Heating Solutions and Resilience Plan. 

    We do not have the luxury with little time remaining (2025-2031) to soothe ourselves with bits and pieces of "feel good" off deadline and off critical path minor climate progress. Instead, we must be entirely focused on the effective remaining prioritized critical path actions that can and will save the rest of humanity from extinction before it is too late!

     

    8. Additional important volunteer information

    Here are a few additional things all volunteers should be aware of:

    1. Climate Justice requires that all volunteers do their best also to get the uncensored Job One for Humanity climate analysis and facts to those individuals living in poor and undeveloped countries. In general, the poor and undeveloped countries have done the least to create the runaway global heating extinction emergency. Yet, they will usually be the first to experience the worst of the runaway global heating consequences. 

    If you speak languages other than English, please translate our materials and videos as best as you can. If you are from a non-English speaking country, consider becoming a global heading educational leader for your nation.

    All people from all nations must be equally allowed to survive the coming extinction of almost half of humanity by mid-century. Climate justice demands that no special consideration be given to wealthy individuals or developed nations when managing the global runaway global heating extinction emergency --- especially in light of the fact that developed wealthy nations have done the most by far to create this nightmare.

    2. None of the Job One main office volunteers work on weekends or holidays unless they choose to. It is essential to have time away from such challenging and vital volunteer work. This means that our volunteer team only replies to emails within 1-2 non-holiday business days.

    3. Our volunteer team managers will strive to make your volunteer work as fun, engaging, and meaningful as possible while together, we all bring our combined talents to resolving the runaway global heating extinction emergency.

     

    9. Our strongly recommended first project for all new volunteers.

    Here is the strongly recommended first project for all new volunteers. Strongly recommend you start with this because it will be easier to get going and have some success and fun. Please begin this as soon as possible:

    Contact other people in your area who are open to learning about runaway global heating and help educate them about the ten critical climate facts and the many benefits we will get once we get runaway global heating under control.

    You can do the following in any order you like, but it is critical that everyone does their part by reaching out to others before it is too late to prevent the worst coming runaway global heating consequences:

    Part a: You can begin by using our simple climate change and global heating "elevator pitch" found here to start conversations with friends, neighbors, work associates, and strangers and let them know how serious the current climate emergency is. In these conversations, personally share what you have learned about the runaway global heating emergency. Or,

    Part b: You can start conversations with friends, neighbors, work associates, and strangers and let them know the many wondrous benefits they, the society, and the world will receive when we get the runaway global heating emergency under control. Click here to read about the many benefits of global heating and climate change if you have not done so already. This benefits page is the most read page of our website with over 2 million visits.

     

     

    Part c:  You can email your friends or the people you talk to this critical link to the ten critical climate facts on the Job One website. This one page and its links will quickly educate anyone on our perilous climate change condition. You can also email them the global heating benefits page if you think that will be better.

    Part d: At some point, ask them to sign online runaway global heating petitions found here on our website or our even easier "I will commit to helpful climate actions pledge."

    Part e: Eventually, when they seem ready, ask your friends and neighbors to join your climate change educational work or volunteer at Job One. This way, you build up a local action and support group membership. 

    Please keep us informed about your project successes or problems. This information will help other volunteers. Before you start the above project, we have just one important page you need to read that contains everything you need to know about being a Job One for Humanity volunteer. Click here to read this essential page.

     

    10. How to wisely start any project that you choose

    The Job One for Humanity organization is a climate think tank at its core. Our job is to analyze current and past climate research. 

    We publish our climate analysis and recommendations on our website. But, the organization has not been set up to distribute this information or enact the recommendations for fixing the runaway global heating extinction emergency. Instead, we rely 100% upon our volunteers and website's many members and subscribers to share this climate information. Consequently, when you volunteer at job one for humanity, you are the one who must be the one to plan and execute whatever project you have selected for yourself. 

    The following are a few tips it will help you get your first and subsequent projects rolling successfully:

    1. After choosing the project you want to work on, plan out how you would like to achieve it and what your goals should be for that project. 

    2. You will need creativity and persistence on your chosen projects to get around climate change ignorance and the normal resistance to change.

    3. Keep your project goals humble in the beginning to build success momentum.

    4. Once you've completed your planning stage, consider the resources you will need, particularly other human resources. We strongly recommend that if you have friends, family, or business associates in your local area, invite them to join you in your project. Having others working with you ner your location improves the meaningful satisfaction and enjoyment you can experience doing any project.

    Also, having others involved will provide essential additional support for you when things aren't going well, and you are trudging through the everyday resistance to change. Extensive research has shown that being in a supportive network can be up to 90% of the reason people are successful in achieving some goal.

    5. Go into action on your project. As you progress on your goals, please take a moment to recognize those accomplishments and share those accomplishments with others locally and with us at Job One for Humanity.

    6. When things get tough or bogged down, remember to return to this benefits page to help you restore and renew your motivation and persistence. This challenge also is an excellent time to bring your support team together to help brainstorm and renew your motivation and support.

    7. Always celebrate and share your successes with us, and we will share them with other volunteers in the network.

     

    11. Become the change you want to see in the world

    Making personal progress on your chosen Job One Plan B steps is also essential. This action will help you better understand what we must go through to fix the climate and make you an example of what you are educating others about. 

    Remember, you do not have to be perfect. Just make some progress regularly on the changes we need to make as described in the Job One, Plan B. Making progress on Job One, Plan B will also keep you and yours safer while you do this great work for yourself and the world.

    Click here for how to get started with your Job One Plan B. 

    12. About Job One for Humanity does its climate analysis and projections

    Volunteers should know a bit about the organization in which they are volunteering.

    Job One for Humanity, founded in 2008, is a non-profit and independent climate change think tank that provides a "big picture" holistic view and analysis of the inter-connected and inter-dependent climate systems creating our current climate change emergency.

    While we do not do in-house original climate research, we use the published research papers of independent and respected climate scientists and climate research from organizations like the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA.) 

    Many climate research papers and summary materials reviewed or used by this organization in its analysis, prediction, or recommendations are also found listed:

    1. in this extensive but still partial master list of these related or relevant climate research papers and summaries.
    2. in many available video presentations by the climate scientists or researchers describing their own research. Click here to see an example in the video of the renowned climate scientist Kevin Anderson presenting the climate emergency at Oxford.
    3. in the body of many of our web pages, in the links on those pages, or in the end notes or technical notes found at the end of many pages.

    We provide our climate and global heating educational information for individuals and organizations with the understanding that they will independently evaluate it and decide upon its usefulness and accuracy based on the best climate science and analysis currently available.

    As an organization, we speak climate truth to power, and we always treat our visitors and members as adults who can process often painful facts. We candidly speak climate truth to power also because there is no time left to hide or sugar-cote the facts surrounding the runaway global heating emergency.

    Our website pages offer an appropriate, proportional, and rational hope that we can still fix the climate and save humanity from the climate's worst possible extinction possibilities. We base this measured hope solely upon current climate science and advanced dialectical metasystemic analysis processes. 

    We are the only non-profit think tank telling the whole and unvarnished truth on how bad the runaway global warming extinction emergency will become and preparing individuals, businesses, and nations for the unavoidable, soon-arriving climate and global heating consequences.

    All the runaway global heating and climate change remedial actions we recommend are provided on a self-motivated, self-organized, and self-directed, Do-It-Yourself (DIY) basis. Although we will answer climate questions and provide encouragement through our member support system, you are responsible for spreading the word and telling others about this website's climate information and tools. Responsibility for the preparations, adaptations, and global heating remedial actions necessary to protect yourself, your loved ones, and your business from what is coming remains as it should, exclusively with you.

     

     

    13. How Our Research, Review, and Dialectical Meta-Systemic Analysis Processes are Unique 

    Volunteers should know a little bit about how we do climate and global warming analysis.

    Using the principles of system theory and dialectical meta-systemic thinking applied to the climate and global warming as a complex adaptive system composed of many systems and subsystems (ocean temperature and acidification, forests, soils, atmosphere, glaciers, sea ice, and ice shelves, ocean currents and the jet stream, tundra and snowpack conditions), we review and then analyze current and past climate change research and public climate summaries for:

    1. errors, 

    2. omissions, 

    3. previously unrecognized positive connections or negative patterns in or between climate studies and the climate's systems and subsystems,

    4. unseen interconnections or consequence connections within and between climate studies and the climate's systems and subsystems,

    5. the unseen or hidden politicization, censorship, or the watering down of climate science by governmental agencies or other types of agents or lobbyists in public climate summary reports. 

    The problems in 1-5 above can significantly affect the validity of current and future statements or positions concerning climate consequence timetables or the frequency, severity, and scale of climate consequences. Using system theory and dialectical metasystemic thinking applied to the climate as a complex adaptive system, we also review research papers and public statements on the climate for:

    1. discernable or hidden biases, and

    2. undeclared financial or other conflicts of interest.

    The above two problems have become more prevalent and have resulted in significantly underestimated negative climate consequences in public climate summaries and statements. Climate think tanks, individuals or groups operating as unknown fossil fuel lobbyists, and climate researchers funded by the fossil fuel-related industries have become the biggest offenders in this area. 

    Instead of our analyzing only one area of specialized climate studies like the oceans, glaciers, ice and snow packs, planetary temperature history, water vapor, soils, forests, or greenhouse gas factors on temperature and the atmosphere, we analyze climate research on how it holistically applies and interrelates to all different areas within and between the climate's interrelated, interconnected, and interdependent systems and subsystems. 

    Using the tools of dialectical metasystemic thinking, we examine climate studies, their positions, and the related interactions of the climate system and subsystems through 28 different dialectical analysis perspectives and lenses. This allows us also to see, consider and value natural or human counteractions that may occur in response to the various primary and secondary consequences of climate change and global heating.

    After that extensive analysis, we make climate consequence severity and time frame predictions and remedial recommendations for the correct global fossil fuel reduction amounts to minimize human loss and suffering. Our final analysis, forecasts, and recommendations always include all needed adjustments to compensate for any problems, errors, omissions, underestimation, or politicization which we discover in current climate research or summaries. Click here to see the many errors, underestimation, and politicization we found in a major recognized source of global climate research and recommendations. 

    Unlike many other climate change think tanks, we do provide prioritized, critical-path, and deadline-driven solutions to the climate change emergency. These solutions are based upon accurate global fossil fuel reduction targets and avoiding the most dangerous climate tipping points and climate feedbacks deadlines that we currently face. 

    Job One for Humanity is currently helping expose the current intense politicization of climate science. This intense politicization of science by the media, governments, and even the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) acts to critically underestimate our actual and current climate consequences, timeframes, remedies, and condition.

    Unexpectedly, our independent climate change analysis has turned us into reluctant whistleblowers exposing how popular and politicized climate data has been distorted to serve the hidden interests of those who gain financially (or in other ways) from the ongoing global use of fossil fuels and hiding the real danger the public faces from the runaway global heating extinction emergency.

    Please note that our education materials, because of their serious and adult nature, are not meant for adolescents under 16!

    Our Advisory Board

    14. About the Mission and Goals of Job One for Humanity

    Our overall mission strategy is always based on the principle of focusing on working wholeheartedly toward the best possible climate outcomes while also simultaneously being aware of and preparing for the worst possible climate outcomes.

    In March of 2022, Job One For Humanity once again reviewed the climate science and updated its position on climate change and the runaway global heating emergency. It concluded that:

    As the result of ignoring 60 years of valid scientific warnings and our not resolving the climate change and rising global heating emergency, we have already locked ourselves into the beginning phase of runaway global warming and the unavoidable extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. Mass human extinction is now inevitable and unavoidable because we have already gone over the runaway global heating climate cliff when we reached the carbon 386 ppm level. Unfortunately, at our current carbon 420+ ppm level, we are making our extinction occur faster because we will cross even more climate tipping points and amplify climate feedback loops at faster rates. 

    The good news is that we can still save much of the other half of humanity, but only if we get close to reaching the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible. The even better news is that when we finally fix runaway global heating, there will be many positive benefits and possibly a Great Global Rebirth

    This first mass extinction-level event of about half of humanity by mid-century will result primarily from mass starvation due to climate change-related crop failures, low crop yields, and soaring food prices. It will also be caused by growing resource shortages and increasing regional and national conflicts as tens of millions of starving climate refugees seek to find new homes.

    If humanity does not get close to making the required and radical 2025 global fossil fuel use reductions (as described in detail on this global targets page,) humanity will also face an even worse second extinction-level of near-total extinction beginning as soon as 2070. (Click here to discover why total human extinction is not realistic or probable, and the worst humanity could possibly experience is near-total extinction (about 50 to 90+% of humanity going extinct.)

    Accordingly, we have had to update our prior mission and goals because of the preceding and the increasingly severe global climate change and global heating consequences. Because the likelihood of coming close to the 2025 global targets for fossil fuel reduction is currently so low, part of our mission upgrade was to create a new Plan B for the runaway global heating extinction emergency. 

    With our new Plan B, while we are still working diligently on preventing near-total extinction, we have shifted a significant amount of our mission focus to also helping individuals, families, and businesses to become aware that they now need to start preparing themselves physically, emotionally, and psychologically for what can no longer be avoided; the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century.

    We are actively helping them adapt and build climate resilience (and other kinds of resilience) both in their homes and businesses and in essential local, regional, and national systems. Our new Plan B reflects our upgraded mission and focuses on maximizing all the possible human, biological and ecological good within our extremely difficult and painful current climate position by:

    A. preparing for, adapting to, and building enhanced human and biological resilience to survive climate change's ongoing catastrophic or unavoidable consequences while time remains to do so.

    This getting prepared step also means that it is time to educate and prepare humanity for the many huge sacrifices we have to make to get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. And it is also time to start preparing humanity for the unimaginable and unavoidable, soon-arriving suffering.  

    while simultaneously working to prevent the worst consequences by,

    B. pressing our governments hard and continuously to enforce radically cutting global fossil fuel use to get close to the 2025 global targets to slow down runaway global heating sufficiently so that we can avoid near-total human and biological extinction and more of humanity can live a little longer and more securely. (We can no longer save half of humanity, but we still have a chance to save much of the rest of humanity.)

    C. pressing our governments for the creation of effective global climate governance that has the power to make effective global climate law with the ability to verify, enforce, and punish violators. Without effective global climate governance, we will never be able to at least:

    1. slow down the current climate-driven extinction and collapse,

    2. manage the coming and now unavoidable climate-driven population collapse and sudden global decline, and 

    3. wisely and equitably create and manage the post-global heating collapse recovery processes.  

    But first and foremost, we must quickly force our governments to create effective global climate governance that has the power to make effective global climate law AND the ability to verify, enforce, and punish violators! Without this empowered global governance mechanism, we can not adequately reduce the climate risks and threats to minimize the effects of near-total extinction.

    Runaway global heating is a global emergency that only can be fixed globally. If we do not get this global climate governance working soon, humanity will suffer far more than ever needed and worse than can be imagined.  

    D. And, if we do not get close to the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, with the hope that a good portion of the human population will survive we:

    1. help younger individuals and families migrate from high-risk global heating areas to safer areas before it is too late to make these moves, (We forward the position that younger generations (X.Y Z, and A) who did not create or ignore the runaway global heating extinction nightmare have a far greater right to occupy the remaining global heating safest lands and to survive longer.)

    2. support building many urban and rural new ecologically sustainable communities worldwide for our younger generations that:

    a. might also allow at least some small part of our younger generations to survive where they are currently living, through the coming climate-change-propelled global collapse, extinction, and possible rebirth process and cycle, 

    b. might learn from and apply the many hard lessons of runaway global heating and the other ecological, economic, and political consequences which will happen to us because of the ultimate consequences of our current overconsuming, highly unsustainable, and inequitable lives.

    If there are survivors in these eco-communities, they and their eco-communities would serve as "beacons of light," modeling the critical new ideas, new values, and new behaviors for an eventual Great Global Rebirth. To see what these new ideas, new values, and new behaviors might look like, click here and look at Benefit 1.

    (Please be aware that the continuous pain and suffering any survivors will go through is so immense and unimaginable that many survivors will wish they had died in the Great Global Collapse. For most, survival will be closer to a subsistence existence. Because surviving runaway global heating will be a living hell, we must lessen that hell for survivors by getting as close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as is possible.)

    3. help our governments develop crisis plans for managing the sudden and massive loss of life and unfolding social and economic chaos from now until mid-century from the unavoidable runaway global heating consequences. 

    Because of our 60 years of inaction and ineffective action on the global heating emergency, the informative creative destruction that will occur as half the human population unavoidably goes extinct is unconscionable and the greatest horror in human history. Yet, it is also an equally powerful opportunity to create a better world and even a great global rebirth. (To learn more about the many benefits, improvements, and new societal values that could emerge for humanity from this unsought-after evolutionary challenge and opportunity, click here.)

     

     

    15. Conclusion

    Our role at Job One as a climate think tank is to provide un-politicized and accurate climate information. The role of our volunteers is to share the climate information they discover and, where appropriate, become climate activists. Without the hundreds of Job One volunteers taking up their future-critical roles in co-creating an honest climate solution, there is little hope we can avoid extinction-level climate catastrophes.

    Please persist on your chosen projects as a Job One volunteer. Directly or indirectly, all of our educational projects aim to get our government to enforce the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. This is because if we do not get our governments to enforce and get close to the required 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, we will be unable to save most of the other half of humanity, which at this time, we can still save.

    It is now up to you to get the Job One for Humanity climate change and runaway global heating analysis and remedial actions to all of your open-minded friends, neighbors, associates, and the world.

    If you do not actively educate others, they will keep believing the grossly underestimated climate summary reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change spread by the media worldwide. Then, falsely thinking they are safe and there is little real urgency because of the media climate underestimation, they will do little to nothing to help fix our accelerating global heating emergency.

    Consequently, we will ALL suffer needlessly, and far too many of us will perish.

    We truly do need every volunteer actively working on this! 

    Please do not wait to start educating and, where appropriate, protesting.

    We are almost out of time.

    And finally, thanks for joining our volunteer team! Our volunteers care enough, know enough, and are brave enough to act because if they don't, who will, and too much is at stake not to act? 

    "By helping to educate about runaway global warming and our practical plan to fix it, you are doing something noble and beautiful. You are not only acting to save yourself and your loved ones, you also are helping to reduce suffering and save the lives of billions of others."

    You are also becoming a true global heating hero or heroine and a runaway global heating educator or activist." Lawrence Wollersheim

    Sincerely,

    The Job One Volunteer Support Team 

     

     

    Volunteer Education Verification Links

    1. If you want to know why we have only until 2025 to make the life-critical global fossil fuel reductions:

     a. Learn about the many inertia and momentum factors in the climate system here.

    b. Learn more about the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets here.

    c. Discover the detailed primary and secondary global warming-related consequences that will lead to the extinction of humanity and global collapse here.

    2. The Job One for Humanity organization has adapted to the new reality that disruption is now necessary because:

    a. We are in a global warming extinction emergency, and we will experience many now unavoidable severe global warming consequences

    b. We most likely can not avoid the extinction of much of humanity by mid-century (because of our previous decades of delays in acting to resolve this emergency.

    c. We still have a reasonable chance of preventing the near-total extinction of humanity due to accelerating global warming and the other 11 global crises we face if we act now!

    d. Please see this article for some of the ways we are respectfully disrupting.

     

    Other Helpful Volunteer Information

    Click here to see a profile of our members and the audience of visitors who will most benefit from our website.

    According to Google statistics, as of March 5, 2022, 4.5 million unique visitors have come to our website over the last five years to review our candid and non-politicized climate change analysis and research. Additionally, scores of climate newsgroups regularly display, like, and comment upon our climate articles.

    If you still need to know more about current volunteer projects, positions or volunteering at Job One before you volunteer 

    Please see the two links below:

    a. our newest volunteer projects listings.

    b. our current volunteer ongoing administrative positions.

    c. if you have not signed up yet to be a volunteer, click here and go to the bottom of the page.

     


  • The Dark Benefits of a Total Failure in Fixing Climate Change

    Prologue

    Even if we fail to come close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, there are dark benefits that can also be the necessary processes and framework for a Great Global Rebirth. A near complete global collapse caused by the many runaway global heating consequences may turn out to be the second best solution to the runaway global heating emergency. By the time you finish reading this article, we hope you too will be able to see the value of global heating's worse case dark benefits. (Of course, the best solution always is for us to fix runaway global heating.)

    Introduction

    Suppose we do not manage the runaway global heating emergency correctly. In that case, there is little doubt that the unstoppable forces of Mother Nature (the immutable laws of math and physics behind accelerating global heating) will fix the climate and global heating problem for us and save as much as 50% of the human population. 

    Unfortunately, mother Nature's solution will be very painful and destructive to humanity. Below are the dark benefits Mother Nature will exact from us if we do not come close to achieving the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction and we fail to control the runaway global heating extinction emergency. (When you finish this article, please click here to see precisely how mother nature will eventually save us from ourselves if we miss the 2025 targets big time.)

    Here is what the forces of Mother Nature will do for us to help the remaining best prepared, wise, and most adaptable of us survive:

     

    Benefit 1 - The benefits of evolutionary "creative destruction" may become the most powerful force behind The Great Global Rebirth. Creative destruction is the evolutionary recycling of parts or wholes of a system or subsystem unable to adapt. This core meta-pattern of evolution for breaking down and recycling non-adaptive parts and wholes allows the resources of these parts and wholes to be reused to support future experiments in the evolutionary process. 

    The tremendous "creative destruction" of the global heating extinction emergency (its resultant catastrophes, chaos, and consequences,) further disrupting and multiplying our 11 other critical global challenges, will eventually also cause the eventual structural collapse or destruction of most or all remaining resistant and non-adaptive economic, social, religious and political structures. These would be the very structures that were either causing, maintaining, or benefiting from the runaway global heating emergency and would not likely be removed by any other social or political means other than the uncontrolled, sudden and near-total collapse of much of the global society. 

    Once these change-resistant economic, social, and political structures have fallen, it will be far easier to envision and create something more sustainable and equitable for ALL survivors, the Great Global Rebirth. Survivors will not likely repeat the past painful mistakes or keep using the same economic, social, and political systems that have so horribly failed them in creating the runaway global heating emergency, mass extinction, and widespread global collapse. 

    By allowing the natural evolutionary processes of "creative destruction" to clear out harmful or non-adaptive social, economic, religious, and political structures, the most significant extinction event and global collapse in human history can be fully transformed by the survivors into humanity's greatest opportunity for a better and new future --- a true global rebirth. Survivors can utilize this unconscionable tragedy as the perfect opportunity and leverage to make the massive and needed changes for our intentional new collective evolution.

    For whoever survives, here are just a few of the potential evolutionary changes in values and processes that will be far easier to make once the highly-resistant existing social, economic, religious, and political structures have failed or collapsed.

    Here are the benefits of destructive creation by removing non-adaptive and change-resistant structures:

    1. the reduction of our destructive consume/pollute/waste consumerism, 

    2. the ending critical resource depletion to create resource rebalancing, 

    3. we will be able to make any additionally needed reductions in global fossil fuels use and its massive carbon pollution of our air and water,

    4. the ending racial and educational justice, 

    5. we can create universal healthcare, 

    6. ending wealth and income equity, 

    7. we can build housing and employment equity, 

    8. we will allow for the return and strengthening of biodiversity because of reduced pollution and our encroachment into natural habitats, 

    9. we can create effective global governance based on all planetary citizens' collective wellbeing vs. our current corporatocracy, which operates for the benefit of a wealthy few that we have now. (To begin to repair corporatocracy, we would need to remove all personhood rights from corporations, hold them strictly responsible to the triple bottom line principles and make them pay for all pollution and harm they cause to the public commons and wellbeing.) And finally, 

    10. we can create the next evolutionary economic fair exchange system beyond our current corporate greed-based capitalism. This new economic system will not rely upon the false fundamental principle of unlimited growth within the closed and limited Earth system.

    All of the previous items will help build a balanced and sustainable prosperity and a just and equitable future for ALL of humanity, including all biological life. All of the above things can help create a global civil society with individual human rights and responsibilities held in appropriate balance with community and government rights and responsibilities. (To learn more about the principles of the sustainable prosperity of the future, click here.)

    If we have a future at all, in some form, it will likely be a "post-unlimited-growth, post-greed capitalist, and post-fossil fuel society world. If we are lucky, this future will arrive in part by:

    a. a bit of proper management by ourselves,

    b. by intentional design, and

    c. in part by the pain and trauma of the horrendous mass extinction disasters and the great collapse. 

    If you notice, these post-collapse aspiring values and processes are many of the same ones that we will need to work on to prevent global collapse and address the other 11 critical global challenges we now face. (To see what this means, look again at the Sustainable Development Goals illustration above.)

    "The climate and global heating-driven extinction collapse may be the greatest opportunity in human history (and the greatest opportunity in your life) to re-build and rebirth a better world because most of the most powerful change-resisting societal structures and systems will finally be cleared away." Lawrence Wollersheim

     

     

    Benefit 2  - Our failure to fix the global heating emergency will also help resolve all of these many of the following issues and obstacles within our other 11 critical global challenges. 

    This benefit is crucial because an unavoidable future global warming extinction event will reduce the human population by half or more by mid-century. This massive global die-off, once completed, will also dramatically reduce or improve issues of global starvation, income inequality, wealth disparity, housing shortages, healthcare shortages, racial inequality, educational inequality, employment opportunities, inequality, and most of our other current pollution, religious intolerance, and environmental issues. 

    This significant improvement is because the infrastructure for 8 billion people will remain for the 2 -4 billion survivors (or less,) and there will be far less demand for natural and human-made resources (like fossil fuels). Additionally, because of the severe and unprecedented trauma of this Great Collapse process, survivors will be less likely to allow or tolerate the previous income, wealth, housing, healthcare, racial, educational, and employment inequalities and disparities to continue any longer. (Click here for more about how Mother Nature will with 100% certainty will eventually fix the runaway global heating extinction emergency if we do not.)

     

    Benefits 3  - We will resolve the global overpopulation problem, the global resource depletion, and the resource overshoot problem. Much of the world's population will begin to perish if we miss the 2025 targets by mid-century. One way or the other, Mother Nature will do what we were unable or unwilling to do. Mother Nature, by way of accelerating global warming, will initiate The Great Global Collapse and Die-off and force us back to a planetary population level that the Earth's carrying capacity can sustainably support (about 1 and 1/2 to 2 billion). (Some researchers say that the true root physical cause of the global warming emergency is overpopulation and the resource overshoot caused by overpopulation.)

     

    Benefit 4: - At this time, we can still hope that we will slow and lessen what is coming just enough so that some of humanity and civilization will survive in the future global warming safer zones. If we finally work together, we only experience an unavoidable mass extinction instead of near-total extinction.

     

    Benefit 5 - Even if we do not stop escalating global warming in time for most of humanity to survive, from a "Big Picture" evolutionary perspective, there are still many benefits for our remaining biological planetary life and the evolution of any surviving humanity and our universe. Other species will not have their habitat destroyed as it is happening now, and fewer species will go extinct because we are currently being such poor stewards of the earth. 

    If we fail totally and allow runaway global heating to reach its final total human extinction phase the benefits are:

    It may take thousands to hundreds of thousands of years, but nature will always somehow recover if we work together to prevent the final and worst of the Climageddon Scenario, which is our atmosphere being ripped off into outer space because of the last stages of runaway global warming. Even if humanity goes completely extinct and we somehow prevent global warming's sixth and last Climageddon phase of total extinction from occurring, nature and the unstoppable forces of evolution will eventually recover from the damage we are doing, and some new apex species will evolve to take our place. Who knows, it may even be our prodigy in the form of robotic artificial intelligence (AI) life forms.

    Key additional reading

    Piease click here to see precisely how mother nature will eventually save us from ourselves if we miss the 2025 targets big time.

    Please click here to read about the encouraging history of how as few as 200 mating pairs saved humanity from extinction in our past. 

     


  • Two very powerful climate-related videos. One Very New and Time Limited!

    One is positive about Millenials and the climate. The other is controversial about the disruptive global climate activism needed to prevent mass to near-total extinction. We only have access to the uplifting Millenial video for a very short time! 
    Read more

  • published Our June Monthly Newsletter 2022 in Blog 2022-07-01 13:33:17 -0700

    Our Monthly Climate and Global Heating Newsletter for June 2022

    This month's newsletter provides a new and qualified hope for our challenging future and the runaway global heating emergency. We completed a further analysis that defines this new hope (in the first blog article below).

    Read more

  • We are NOT going to go TOTALLY extinct because of accelerating climate change consequences. Here's the shocking reason why.

    Our runaway global heating emergency will have horrible consequences. These consequences are so bad there is no need to exaggerate them. 

    To keep global heating fear in an appropriate balance, the information on this page may be the most important information on this website.

     

    Overview

    Understanding the differences between a runaway global heating-driven mass extinction, a near-total extinction event, and a total extinction event is essential to the headline of this article.

    This article will not only clarify those differences. It will also strengthen or restore a rational, balanced, and scientifically appropriate hope for our runaway global heating future.

    The different levels of a global heating-driven extinction are defined as:

    1. Mass human extinction is now unavoidable because of our 60 years of climate inaction, ineffective action, and denial. We have been so grossly ineffective in slowing and reversing global heating for 60 years that about half of the human population will die by mid-century.
    2. Near-total human extinction is a scenario where as much as 50-90+% of humanity could go extinct before we slow and reverse the current runaway global heating. (The processes of near-total extinction are described in the first three extinction-accelerating tipping points on this page and then on this page.)
    3. Total human extinction can only occur if we allow carbon levels in the atmosphere to rise to 800 to 1700 parts per million (ppm). At those levels, we risk our atmosphere being pulled out into space and 100% of everything else that depends upon oxygen suffocating and going entirely extinct. 

    Fortunately, long before reaching those extreme carbon 800-1700 atmospheric carbon ppm levels, Mother Nature will step in with her tough medicine. Her excruciating "tough medicine" intervention (as described further below) will result in close to a near-total extinction, but not total extinction!

    We will not all go extinct because Mother Nature's "tough medicine" will occur and intensify in lockstep with the increasing severity, frequency, and scale of many of the primary and secondary consequences of global heating described in detail on this page.

    In the end, it will most likely be the powerful remedial tough medicine counteractions of Mother Nature and not our own global heating remedial actions that ultimately save humanity from ourselves.

    Why total human extinction is unrealistic and highly improbable, Mother Nature's tough medicine 

    The Job One research team must humbly admit that we have failed to fully allow for all appropriate compensatory weighting for several natural climate destabilization counteractions in our previous global heating research analysis. We have failed to fully acknowledge that these natural system global heating counteractions intrinsically respond to and act to powerfully counter the rapidly worsening global heating effects on our climate systems and subsystems. This generally unacknowledged natural system counteraction error has also been significant in other climate researchers' and climate organizations' current global heating predictions. 

    The critical omitted counteraction by Mother Nature consists of killing enough of us off soon enough using the primary and secondary global heating consequences so that it is impossible to add more human-caused fossil fuel carbon to the atmosphere and eventually cause total extinction. It is that simple. (The illustrations further down this page will help clarify this cause and effect counteraction.)

    This natural counteraction omission issue is critical because it creates a significant error in runaway global warming extinction predictions. Nevertheless, numerous researchers are convinced that humanity faces an inevitable climate change-driven total human extinction. 

    Previously the Job One for Humanity organization held this total extinction would only be true if we did not get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. However, based on a new analysis by Job One on the factors listed further below, we now believe that while the extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century is still unavoidable, total human extinction caused by primary and secondary global heating consequences occurring from about 2050 to 2080 (or sooner) is neither probable nor likely.

    Based on our new analysis that now includes several previously ignored or discounted natural and human counteractions scenarios, we now predict that if we can at least get close to the 2025 targets, humanity will, at worst, only face a near-total extinction. 

    Before we go over the critical natural and human counteractions list for runaway global warming that can potentially save 50 to 90+% of humanity (even if we don't fix runaway global heating in time,) it is necessary to explain a common scientific principle.

    Global heating counteractions are similar to Newton's 3rd law. That law is that "for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction." 

    If at this point, you think about global heating consequences as the costs of global heating, it would be helpful. As global heating costs rise, there will be more and more human and natural counteractions (equal and opposite reactions) to control and lower these costs.

    Global heating's counteracting process will become more apparent as you review the many rising "costs" of our runaway global heating consequences (further below) and the increased likelihood that natural and human counteractions will eventually react to those costs.

    More about the natural counteractions that have been seriously underestimated in the previous climate and global heating predictions

    An actual global heating-driven total extinction event can only occur if we put so much greenhouse gas into the atmosphere that our atmosphere is ripped off into space. Unfortunately, this is what happened to Venus because of ever-rising global temperatures. The strange but good news here is that total extinction will be prevented because so much of humanity will be dead long before we ever get to the extreme levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas, which could cause total human extinction.

    To help you understand what those predicting inevitable total human extinction have missed or underestimated, it is necessary to start with the natural counteractions that "Mother Nature" will activate as runaway global heating worsens. The following natural counteractions are the only counteractions that alone have the power to save humanity from its own bad fossil fuel decisions and actions.

    Unfortunately, there also is mixed bad and good news about fixing the total extinction prediction failure by properly including the effects of key natural global heating counteractions:

    Here is the mixed news:

    1. The death of half of humanity by mid-century is still unavoidable. We have ignored six decades of valid scientific warnings and have been totally ineffective in slowing accelerating runaway global heating. 
    2. Because of natural counteractions to rising global temperatures in the climate's systems and subsystems, we can still save most of the other 50% of humanity (but only if we get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible.)
    3. If we widely miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, Mother Nature's counteracting climate-related primary and secondary consequences will soon accelerate exponentially. Mother Nature's counteractions will ensure ALL of humanity does not perish. (If we miss the 2025 targets by a lot, there will just be far less of us than if we got close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.)

    On the one hand, at this point, you may be wondering how Mother Nature will "allow" a mass or even a near-total human extinction to occur while, on the other hand, still "preventing" us from going totally extinct?

    It is because of a dialectical twist of evolutionary fate. 

    How Mother Nature's natural counteractions, consequences, and systems will be the dominant force saving humanity from itself and total extinction

    Complex adaptive systems have "harmful" feedback loops and tipping points that can make the system worse, more unstable, or eventually crash. On the other hand, complex adaptive systems also have "helpful" countering feedback loops and tipping points that, at specific points, can trigger and make the climate system better and more stable and eventually restore the system to equilibrium or near-equilibrium. 

    Although most of the most prominent "harmful" climate feedback loops and tipping points are known, most of the "helpful" natural climate feedback loops and tipping points are still unknown. This is because humanity has never studied anything like what is happening to us with our current runaway global heating emergency.

    But rest assured, these "helpful" feedback loops and tipping points are there because we have repeatedly seen these "helpful" feedback loops and tipping points gradually restoring other harmed or crashed ecological systems back into new equilibrium states in other natural and biological systems. 

    We have observed many predator-prey ecological systems that have nearly collapsed and then rebalanced once again using new processes involving new feedback loops and different tipping points that push the ecological system back closer to its original equilibrium.

    Lucky for us, this same "helpful" feedback loop and tipping point rebalancing mechanism exists within the climate's systems and subsystems.

    These helpful tipping points and feedback loops can also help control the speed and damage levels of the runaway global heating extinction emergency. And then, at some point, they can trigger into action assisting Mother Nature in beginning the restoration and rebalancing process and doing what is necessary to preserve the critical conditions for humanity to exist. 

    Here is how those counteraction processes look for our future.

    Mother Nature's global heating counteractions are as follows:

    1. In perfect lockstep with our rising global heating, Mother Nature's immutable laws of climate physics will continue ratcheting-up ever-intensifying climate and global heating-related consequences to kill off hundreds of millions of us and then billions of us. (The initial main ways Mother Nature will kill us off will be through low crop yields, crop failures, and soaring crop prices. Global crops will fail or be stunted because of global warming aggravated heatwaves, rain bombs, droughts, flooding, wildfires, out-of-season cold spells, hail, Derechos (severe wind storms), and other extreme weather which destabilizes normal growing season conditions. The world's five principal grains (rice, wheat, maize [corn], millet, and sorghum) are particularly vulnerable to climate-caused massive crop failure. This global heating-related crop failure occurs when temperatures (heat waves) are near or above 100 degrees Fahrenheit for about 30 days during the regular growing season. Increasing starvation always increases mass migration to wherever there is more food. These hunger-driven mass migrations will cause more local, regional, and national conflicts, creating a new amplifying feedback loop of even more mass starvation, soaring food prices, economic instability, and conflict. As these starvation and migration conflicts grow in food-growing and producing countries, food production also will drop because of the many food-growing and transportation disruptions caused directly or indirectly by those expanding conflicts.)
    2. This massive kill-off will continue unabated until so few of us are left that humanity can no longer raise or maintain global temperatures by burning so much fossil fuel. 
    3. The minimal critical point at which Mother Nature will stop killing us is when she has killed enough of us so that global fossil fuel use goes down to levels that are no longer continuing to heat the atmosphere. (This is likely the level where no human-caused additional greenhouse gases (carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide) are being added to the atmosphere. 
    4. Mother Nature's final kill-off stage is where so little additional greenhouse gas is being added to the atmosphere by remaining survivors that the atmosphere now even has the opportunity to start naturally removing existing greenhouse gases and lowering our average global temperature.

    The simplicity of what Mother Nature is doing is just taking the natural and already occurring consequences of accelerating runaway global heating and then using the results of those consequences to eventually slow and reverse those consequences. 

    How long will it take for Mother Nature to kill off enough of us to save the rest of us?

    Unless our governments mass mobilize and come close to the 2025 targets soon, the critical point where Mother Nature stops managing rising greenhouse gases by killing us off will likely be well into the second half of the 21st century. On the other hand, if we get close to the 2025 targets soon, Mother Nature might stop killing us off far closer to 2050-2060.

    Unfortunately, Mother Nature may likely keep killing us off with more intense global heating consequences beyond just the number of us she needs to kill us off to stop adding more greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere by the remaining population. Unfortunately, predicting helpful natural system tipping points and feedback correction timeframes is not currently possible for many complex adaptive systems as complex as natural systems interacting with human systems.)

    The natural kill-off process is not a theory. We have already seen Mother Nature's global heating kill-off counteractions. Mother Nature is already directly or indirectly killing off tens of millions of us each year from only our current level of runaway global heating consequences. 

    Overall, Mother Nature's global heating kill-off counteractions are a measure of positive news for anyone who has worried that there is no hope for humanity and our civilization. 

    In the first illustration below, the blue line represents rising primary and secondary runaway global heating consequences. These rising global heating consequences will cause the climate and other systems within Mother Nature to keep killing off more and more humans (the green line) until humans are no longer capable of overheating the Earth by burning fossil fuels.

    About mid-century (2050) is when we estimate the lines will cross and about half of humanity will have perished, and the Mother Nature-drive die-off will start slowing down.

     

    In the second illustration below, one can see that the more humanity that dies on the green line, the more that global fossil fuel will fall, the blue line.

     

     

    How long-delayed human system counteractions will also be a minor contributing force helping to save humanity from total extinction

    It is also wise to review the significant human counteractions that will eventually take place as runaway global heating worsens and its costs, suffering, and deaths rise. But, neither individually nor cumulatively will these human counteractions occur in time to save about half of humanity from extinction by mid-century.

    Additionally, neither separately nor collectively will the following human counteractions alone happen in time to save us from near-total extinction. Too many severe global heating consequences are already in the pipeline. This is wholly because for the last 60 years, we have been so ineffective in resolving the global heating emergency.

    Here are the primary human counteractions to the intensifying consequences of the runaway global heating extinction emergency that eventually may help lower our global fossil fuel use:

    1. Eventually, our governments will pass and enforce laws that radically reduce fossil fuel use. These new and enforceable laws will drastically reduce global fossil fuel use.
    2. Eventually, our governments will create revenue-neutral, Fee and Dividend-based fossil fuel reduction programs. These Fee and Dividend-based programs will significantly disincentivize using fossil fuels and greatly incentivize greener energy use. 
    3. Each year we will build more non-fossil fuel alternative energy generation systems to replace the current fossil fuel energy generation.
    4. We will add more natural sequestration systems to remove more fossil fuel pollution from our atmosphere. 
    5. We will better protect and preserve existing natural carbon sequestration systems.
    6. Eventually, we will discover and use at the proper scale, sustainable and appropriate technologies which are considerably different from what most people understand as new technologies. Once scaled up, these appropriate technologies will help us transition away from fossil fuels and possibly even help remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.
    7. Eventually, our governments will pass and enforce laws that will make fossil fuels nearly impossible to use for all but a few minimal and essential uses. 
    8. Eventually, to ensure we never have this problem again, current governments (or those governments that survive the post-fossil fuel great global collapse) will evolve new economic and political systems and laws. These new systems and laws will change the paradigm of over-consumption, pollution, waste, overshoot, unmanaged population growth, and ecological over-exploitation. 
    9. Eventually, because of the unimaginable pain and trauma of the runaway global heating's cumulative negative effects, the survivors will find a way to manage the surviving world for the sustainable benefit of ALL humanity and not just for privileged nations or billionaires.

    As a rule, the worse the consequence "action costs" of runaway global heating get (i.e., financial losses, ecological damage, human suffering, and deaths), the faster and harder governments and others will react and enact the above human counteractions to runaway global heating.

    Or put in other words, as history has repeatedly demonstrated, humanity will finally change its behaviors when the pain of going forward with those changes is less than the pain of staying where it is.

    In the illustration below, the green line represents the rising and intensifying consequences of runaway global heating. The blue line represents the locked-in relationship of dependable, continuous, faster, and harder reactions to global heating consequences using all possible human counteractions in lockstep with the rising painful consequences of runaway global heating.

     

    Yes, the above human counteractions will be too little and too late by themselves to save humanity. But when added to Mother Nature's far larger and more dominant horrible kill-off counteractions, they provide the additional opportunity to save even more post-mid-century humanity because the above human counteractions will also contribute to and help slow and lower our rising global temperature and new carbon going into our atmosphere. 

    When all of the above and far less powerful secondary human counteractions are added to the natural counteractions of Mother Nature, they will act as an additional counteracting brake on rising global temperatures and atmospheric carbon.

    These human counteractions will help Mother Nature ensure that humanity will not go beyond near-total extinctionBut even without the additional human counteractions, the good news is Mother Nature's massive kill-off alone will save us from total extinction. The above human counteractions are just extra insurance and can help save more of us sooner.

    Unfortunately, there is still this awful news to deal with. All of the above natural and human counteractions will still not be enough or be able to be scaled up in time to save about half of humanity from going extinct by mid-century in what will be an excruciatingly horrible and painful process. This means that whoever survives the mid-century extinction will face centuries to thousands of years of deprivation and suffering before Mother Nature can fully rebalance herself and get the atmospheric carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide levels down to where our global temperature goes back to a level better suited for optimal human existence and reproduction.

    How much of humanity may perish after mid-century

    At this point, you may wonder how much of humanity Mother Nature's counteractions could save. Here are some estimates.

    If we fail to radically reduce current global fossil fuel use and get close to the 2025 global targets as soon as possible:

    1. some believe Mother Nature will keep killing us off until we get back down to what is known as the Earth's sustainable carrying capacity of about 1.5 billion people.

    2. others believe we will be lucky to have 5-10or less of humanity still living in 2080 to 2100. This very high die-off level is because global heating will keep rising for decades even after Mother Nature has killed off enough of us to stop adding more carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide levels to our atmosphere. Moreover, global heating will continue to rise for about another 2-3 decades even after we entirely stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere because of pre-existing global heating momentum already committed within the climate system. 

    If we fail to get close to the 2025 targets, it is also critical to realize that the conditions for the after mid-century survivors will be so bad most of them will wish they had not survived. (Click here to see the primary and secondary global heating-related consequences they will experience if we fail to get close to the 2025 targets.) 

    Once you have reviewed those horrendous escalating consequences, there will be little doubt that humanity's only viable solution for humanity's future is to get as close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible.

     

    Conclusion

    From the above, all is not hopeless, and a global heating-driven total extinction is not the realistic or probable outcome of runaway global heating. On the contrary, the closer we get to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, the more of the surviving 50% of humanity will be able to survive past mid-century. 

    Conversely, the quality of life of those who survive the pre-mid-century unavoidable extinction process will be made far more unbearable the longer it takes us to get close to the critical 2025 global targets.

    When you analyze and include all of the human "harmful" climate feedback loops and tipping points along with all of the counteracting and "helpful" natural and human feedback loops and tipping points, you get a climate/human connected system that will eventually "self" correct through a very painful, rough and extremely high "costs" reactive process.

    Today, many climate researchers and individuals have either omitted or deeply underestimated the effects of Newton's 3rd law on climate systems and subsystems. They have largely ignored natural (Mother Nature's) and human counteractions in the form of "helpful" climate system feedback loops and tipping points.

    The unfortunate news is that most individuals who believe that the runaway global heating situation is hopeless, have simply given up. Because they believe total extinction is inevitable, they are doing nothing substantive to do their critical part to get our governments to act while we still have time.

    They fail to see our runaway global heating emergency as just another evolutionary opportunity that will force us to finally make the many economic, social, environmental, and political changes that, sooner or later, we will be forced to make anyway. 

    But fortunately, the more profound dialectical evolutionary climate truth shines brightest. If we get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible, as much as half of humanity could survive the runaway global heating extinction emergency. This truly is a realistic and appropriate hope worth fighting and working for wholeheartedly.

    Individuals or groups who tell you all is lost, and we are ALL doomed because of runaway global heating have failed to properly account for or use in their analysis the many compensatory counteractions of:

    1. Newton's 3rd Law of thermodynamics,  

    2. Mother Nature's kill-off counteraction is the only thing that can and will scale up in lockstep with our accelerating global heating consequences. Mother Nature's kill-off counteractions will be the primary and most likely way that a portion of humanity will be able to survive the runaway global heating extinction emergency. And finally,

    3. the 28 dialectical perspectives (counteractions) critical for analyzing complex problems at a meta-systemic levels. (These 28 dialectical perspectives are described in Otto Laske's landmark book Measuring Hidden Dimensions of Human Systems Volume 2.) 

    Below please see how poorly we are currently doing in getting close to the required 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.

     

     

    Technical Notes:

    1. This article resulted from a new dialectical meta-systemic and system theory-based analysis of the most recent climate research viewing the climate as a complex adaptive system.  
    2. On Earth, nothing takes place in a vacuum. For every action, there is some counteraction. For every action (consequence) you have read about on this website, there could also be various counteractions from both "Mother Nature" and our many human systems and organizations. All possible counteractions must always be carefully weighed, considered, and included when doing any legitimate problem threat and risk analysis. 
    3. This article re-examined climate research and the contexts, processes, relationships, and transformations occurring within the climate's dynamic systems and subsystems. During this process, we discovered that the natural and human counteractions (some in helpful climate feedback loops and tipping points) were not adequately considered or weighted in our and other climate and global heating predictions.  
    4. If we reach an increase of 4-6 degrees Celsius in average global temperature, we will experience vast releases of stored carbon and methane from our oceans, soils, trees, and the coastal ocean shelves. But, it is highly improbable we will reach these temperature levels because of the natural and human counteractions described above. As temperatures rise, the human die-off will be so steep that there will not be enough us left burning fossil fuels to be able to reach a 4-6 degrees Celsius level. For the last six decades, it has taken about 25 additional carbon parts per million (ppm) to be added to the atmosphere to raise the average global temperature by 1/2 degree Fahrenheit. (One degree Celcius is equal to about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.) That means that at the current level of adding 3 new carbon ppm per year to our atmosphere, it takes 8+ years to raise the average global temperature by 1/2 degree Fahrenheit. We have presently raised the average global temperature by 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. This means we have another 2.8 degrees of Celsius to go before entering a hazardous area for total extinction. Getting to 4 degrees Celcius will take about 40-50 years. By then, much of humanity will be long dead, and our greenhouse gas levels will have stopped rising (possibly even dropping a bit), preventing us from reaching 4 degrees Celsius. For the sake of wild argument, even if we cross additional global heating tipping points that cause a 50% reduction in the total time left to prevent reaching 4 degrees Celsius, so many of us will die off in the next 20-30 years, we will still not add enough additional fossil fuel pollutants in parts per million to the atmosphere to reach the 4 degrees Celsius level.  
    5. Anyone saying that the climate science shows that All of humanity will invariably go extinct from runaway global warming consequences does not understand there are no 100% certainties in science because new discoveries are constantly qualifying and adjusting by older research.
    6. Current dialectical meta-systemic analysis of recent climate research does not support the wild predictions of a climate-driven total human extinction in 10, 20, 30, or even 40 years. We have time left to act and at worst we will only suffer a near-total extinction, but we need everyone immediately rowing in the same direction at full strength to minimize future human extinction losses and suffering. 
    7. According to a 2020 study published in Scientific Reports, if deforestation and resource consumption (aka overshoot) continue at current rates, they could culminate in a "catastrophic collapse in human population" and possibly "an irreversible collapse of our civilization" in the next 20 to 40 years. 
    8. According to the most optimistic scenario provided by another study, the chances that human civilization survives is less than 10%. (See Nafeez, Ahmed. "Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Several Decades". Vice. Retrieved 2 August 2021. Also see Bologna, M.; Aquino, G. (2020). "Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis." Scientific Reports. 10 (7631): 7631. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-63657-6. PMC 7203172. PMID 32376879.) 

  • The New "Elevator Pitch" of the Climate Change and Global Heating Educational Movement Everyone Should Know,

    There is really just one climate fact that everyone should know. It is the new "elevator pitch" of the climate change and runaway global heating education movement.

     

    A tiny bit of essential climate and atmospheric carbon history first.

    1. Humanity thrived for millennia when atmospheric carbon was at the 270 to 280 ppm level. 

    2. We went over the climate cliff in 2015 when we hit carbon 386 ppm level and entered the beginning stages of runaway global heating. 

    3. Within 2-3 years, we will pass the carbon 425 ppm level. When we pass carbon 425 ppm, we are already deep into the beginning of the runaway global warming process, and we trigger the first of four extinction accelerating tipping points. 

    4. We would have stayed safe from runaway global warming if we ONLY had stayed at or below the carbon 350 ppm level. Since passing the carbon 386 ppm level in 2015, we have already triggered the climate tipping point and climate feedback loop stacking (falling domino) effect first disclosed by James Hansen the NASA climate scientist.

    5. As of March 2022, we had already reached the very dangerous atmospheric carbon level of 420 ppm."

    6. At the carbon 420 ppm level, we have already activated the crossing of ever more climate tipping points and climate feedback loops that will keep raising the global temperature until we make the required, radical, and painful 2025 target reductions in our global fossil fuel use. 

     

     

    Here is the most essential and profound truth about our current climate and runaway global heating emergency that everyone should know, our "elevator pitch" 

    As the result of ignoring 60 years of valid scientific warnings and our not resolving the climate change and rising global heating emergency, we have already locked ourselves into the beginning phase of runaway global warming and the unavoidable extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century. Mass human extinction is now inevitable and unavoidable because we have already gone over the runaway global heating climate cliff when we reached the carbon 386 ppm level. Unfortunately, at our current carbon 420+ ppm level, we are making our extinction occur faster because we will cross even more climate tipping points and amplify climate feedback loops at faster rates. 

    The good news is that we can still save much of the other half of humanity, but only if we get close to reaching the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible. The even better news is that when we finally fix runaway global heating, there will be many positive benefits and possibly a Great Global Rebirth

    From the preceding climate reality, one can see that the March 2022 carbon 420 level is far, far beyond any reasonable and safe atmospheric carbon level and well into the stacking (domino) effect of runaway global warming. At this carbon 420 ppm level, our atmospheric carbon level is about 155% greater than the long-term humanity-thriving atmospheric carbon level of 270 ppm.

    How much higher does this percentage of atmospheric carbon have to rise beyond the last safe level of carbon 350 ppm before we collectively realize that we are in a rapidly approaching mass to near-total extinction danger?

    And finally, one also has to first understand the essence of the problem and its real deadlines before one can fix that problem. You now have the essence of the consequences of our runaway global heating problem.

    Please use the above unsettling global warming "elevator pitch" whenever possible to open conversations on the climate emergency. Then, when they ask you for more information to explain or justify the pitch, please give them the (JobOneforHumanity.org) website or get their email address and send them the link to the ten essential climate facts that will explain the facts in detail and with documentation. 

    The above elevator pitch should make new people so curious that they will want to read your email link (or go to our website) to discover how possible what you said could be. This new elevator speech is intentionally meant to disrupt the ignorance and complacency surrounding the painful, actual facts of our runaway global heating extinction emergency. 

    Try it out and watch the reactions. Even though a good portion of individuals will ignore immediate further research, it plants a seed in their minds so that when they see the next set of climate disasters unfolding, they will remember what you said to them. 

    Our runaway global heating extinction threat in a nutshell 

    For decades, cigarette companies hid the dangers of their products with misinformation and disinformation and stopped anti-smoking legislation. Likewise, for decades, the 28 trillion dollar-a-year global fossil fuel industry has hidden fossil fuel's global heating dangers with massive misinformation and disinformation campaigns, and they have stopped legislation designed to gradually reduce national and international fossil fuel use.  

    Because of that six-decade delay in reducing fossil fuel use caused directly by the massive misinformation and disinformation campaigns of the fossil fuel industry, half of humanity will now unavoidably die by mid-century! Be clear about this. This mass die-off will be caused by the massive misinformation and disinformation campaigns of the fossil fuel industry, and the escalating consequences of runaway global heating from burning their fossil fuels. 

    So, the only remaining questions are:

    What will you do to push the world to meet the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets? 

    What will you do to save yourself and the half of humanity that can still be saved? 

    This IS everyone's clear, urgent, and last chance call to action. 

     

     

    IF you are a member of generation X, Y, or Z. In that case, whether you realize it or not, the above two questions above will become a central question for the rest of your life. They must be planned for and acted upon. If not, you will likely become part of that half or more of humanity that doesn't make it through the runaway global heating extinction emergency.

     

    Have doubts?

    Please click here if you do not believe that it is now unavoidable that about half of humanity will go extinct by mid-century if we fail to get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. The first link will take you to the many global heating-related consequences that will unfold in this nightmare process.

    If you doubt the accuracy of the above runaway global heating truth, please go to this page. It will take you through all of the supporting facts, illustrations, deadlines, and scientific information.

    Get into action

    Please click this link and make a pledge to start the actions needed to protect yourself, humanity, and all life on Earth from runaway global heating.

    Click here to begin the Job One Action plan and help us start to fix this mess.


  • An Alert to the Major Existential Crises of Humankind!

    How can you and I face the predicament that humankind and modern civilization have created? 

    Read more

  • Climate Research & References list used for the Climate and Global Heating Analysis at Job One

    Overview

    Job One for Humanity founded in 2008 is a non-profit and independent climate change think tank that provides a "big picture" holistic view and analysis of the inter-connected and inter-dependent climate systems creating our current climate change and runaway global heating emergency.

    While we do not do in-house original climate research, we use the published research papers of independent and respected climate scientists and the climate research from organizations like the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA.) 

    Below you will find a long list of climate research papers and summary materials reviewed or used by our organization in its analysis, prediction, or recommendations. In addition to the long study reference list found below, many additional climate study references are also found:

    1. in the body of many of our web pages, or in the end notes or technical notes found at the end of many of our website pages.

    2. in the many available video presentations on our website by climate scientists or researchers describing their own research data. Click here to see an example of these videos. It is the renowned climate scientist Kevin Anderson presenting the climate emergency at Oxford University in England.

    At the bottom of all of the study references below, you will also find additional sections on how we do our climate research and analysis. Below the long list of climate study references, on this page you will also find the following essential sections:

    1. The unique and powerful review processes that we use for research and analysis at our independent, not-for-profit climate think tank. 

    2. The validity and reliability limits of the climate science found on the Job One For Humanity website.

    3. How to challenge the accuracy of any climate information you see on our website.

    We provide our climate and global heating information for individuals and organizations with the understanding that they will independently evaluate it and decide upon its usefulness and accuracy based on the best climate science and analysis currently available.

    Here is our extensive, but still partial, master list of climate research papers and summaries

    In addition to the published climate research from organizations like the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), we also use research from independent and respected climate scientists and researchers like those listed below.

    James Hansen is one of the world's leading independent climate change and global heating scientists and authorities. He is an American adjunct professor directing the Program on Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He is best known for his research in climatology, his 1988 Congressional testimony on climate change that helped raise broad awareness of global warming, and his advocacy of action to avoid dangerous climate change. In recent years he has become a climate activist to mitigate the effects of global warming,

    We rely regularly upon his research. He was one of the first and most active climate scientists to warn the world about the extinction dangers of runaway global heating while working at NASA the space agency. See his many climate-related studies below:

    2021

    Hansen, J. Foreword: Uncensored science is crucial for global conservation

    2020

    Beerling, D.J., E.P. Kantzas. M.R. Lomas, P. Wade, R.M. Eufrasio, P. Renforth, B. Sarkar, M.G. Andrews, R.H. James, C.R. Pearce, J.-F. Mercure, H. Pollitt, P.B. Holden, N.R. Edwards, M. Khanna, L. Koh, S. Quegan, N.F. Pidgeon, I.A. Janssens, J. Hansen, and S.A. Banwart, 2020: Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands, Nature 583, 242-248, doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2448-9.

    Rye, C.D., J.Marshall, M. Kelley, G. Russell, L.S. Nazarenko, Y. Kostov, G.A. Schmidt, and J. Hansen, 2020: Antarctic Glacial Melt as a Driver of Recent Southern Ocean Climate Trends, Geophysical Research Letters 47, 11, doi:10.1029/2019GL086892.

    von Schuckmann, K., L. Cheng, M.D. Palmer, J. Hansen et al., 2020: Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?, Earth System Science Data 12, 2013-2041, doi:10.5195/essd-12-2013-2020.

    2019

    Miller, D.H. and J.E. Hansen, 2019: Why Fee and Dividend Will Reduce Emissions Faster Than Other Carbon Pricing Policy Options, OurEnergyLibrary, Response to the Request for Information from the United States House of Representatives Select Committee on the Climate Crisis.

    Lenssen, N.J.L., G.A. Schmidt, J.E. Hansen, M.J. Menne, A. Persin, R. Ruedy, and D. Zyss, 2019: Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, no. 12, 6307-6326, doi:10.1029/2018JD029522.

    2018

    Hansen, J., P. Kharecha, 2018: Cost of carbon capture: Can young people bear the burden?, Joule, 2, 1405-1407.

    Beerling, D.J., J.R. Leake, S.P. Long, J.D. Scholes, J. Ton, P.N. Nelson, M. Bird, E. Kantzas, L.L. Taylor, B. Sarkar, M. Kelland, E. DeLucia, I. Kantola, C. Muller, G.H. Rau and J. Hansen, 2018: Farming with crops and rocks to address global climate, food and soil security, Nature Plants, 4, 138-147, doi:10.1038/s41477-018-0108-y.

    2017

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, K. von Schuckmann, D.J. Beerling, J. Cao, S. Marcott, V. Masson-Delmotte, M.J. Prather, E.J. Rohling, J. Shakun, P. Smith, A. Lacis, G. Russell, and R. Ruedy, 2017: Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions. Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577-616, doi:10.5194/esd-8-577-2017.

    2016

    Cao, J, A. Cohen, J. Hansen, R. Lester, P. Peterson and H. Xu , 2016: China-U.S. cooperation to advance nuclear power. Science, 353, 547-548. doi: 10.1126/science.aaf7131.

    Hansen, J., and M. Sato, 2016: Regional Climate Change and National Responsibilities Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009 (9 pp.), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034009.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley, V. Masson-Delmotte, G. Russell, G. Tselioudis, J. Cao, E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, B. Tormey, B. Donovan, E. Kandiano, K. von Schuckmann, P. Kharecha, A.N. Legrande, M. Bauer, and K.-W. Lo, 2016: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms:/ evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761-3812. doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, K. von Schuckmann, D.J. Beerling, J. Cao, S. Marcott, V. Masson-Delmotte, M.J. Prather, E.J. Rohling, J. Shakun, P. Smith, 2016: Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions. Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., doi:10.5194/esd-2016-42, Published 4 October 2016.

    Taylor, L.L., J. Quirk, R.M.S. Thorley, P.A. Kharecha, J. Hansen, A. Ridgwell, M.R. Lomas, S.A. Banwart, D.J. Beerling, 2016: Enhanced weathering strategies for stabilizing climate and averting ocean acidification. Nature Climate Change, 6, 402-406. doi:10.1038/nclimate2882.

    von Schuckmann, K., M.D. Palmer, K.E. Trenberth, A. Cazenave, D. Chambers, N. Champollion, J. Hansen, S.A. Josey, N. Loeb, P.-P. Mathieu, B. Meyssignac, M. Wild, 2016: An imperative to monitor Earth's energy imbalance Nature Climate Change 6, 138-144, doi:10.1038/nclimate2876.

    2015

    Hansen, J., 2015: Environment and Development Challenges: The Imperative of a Carbon Fee and Dividend. The Oxford Handbook of the Macroeconomics of Global Warming, Eds. Lucas Bernard and Willi Semmler, Chapter 26, doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199856978.013.0026.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato. P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley, V. Masson-Delmotte, G. Russell, G. Tselioudis, J. Cao, E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, E. Kandiano, K. von Schuckmann, P. Kharecha, A.N. Legrande, M. Bauer, and K.-W. Lo, 2015: Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2 C Global Warming is Highly Dangerous. Published in Atmos. Chem. & Phys. Discussions (July 23).

    Nazarenko, L., G.A. Schmidt, R.L. Miller, N. Tausnev, M. Kelley, R. Ruedy, G.L. Russell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, S. Bauer, R. Bleck, V. Canuto, Y. Cheng, T.L. Clune, A.D. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, J.E. Hansen, R.J. Healy, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, A.A. Lacis, A.N. LeGrande, J. Lerner, K.K. Lo, S. Menon, V. Oinas, J.P. Perlwitz, M.J. Puma, D. Rind, A. Romanou, M. Sato, D.T. Shindell, S. Sun, K. Tsigaridis, N. Unger, A. Voulgarakis, M.-S. Yao, and J. Zhang, 2015: Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 7, no. 1, 244-267, doi:10.1002/2014MS000403.

    2014

    Hansen, J. 2014: The Energy to Fight Injustice. Chemistry World, 23 July 2014.

    Miller, R.L., G.A. Schmidt, L.S. Nazarenko, N. Tausnev, S.E. Bauer, A.D. Del Genio, M. Kelley, K.K. Lo, R. Ruedy, D.T. Shindell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, R. Bleck, V. Canuto, Y.-H. Chen, Y. Cheng, T.L. Clune, G. Faluvegi, J.E. Hansen, R.J. Healy, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, A.A. Lacis, A.N. LeGrande, J. Lerner, S. Menon, V. Oinas, C. PC)rez GarcC-a-Pando, J.P. Perlwitz, M.J. Puma, D. Rind, A. Romanou, G.L. Russell, M. Sato, S. Sun, K. Tsigaridis, N. Unger, A. Voulgarakis, M.-S. Yao, and J. Zhang, 2014: CMIP5 historical simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, no. 2, 441-477, doi:10.1002/2013MS000266.

    Schmidt, G.A., M. Kelley, L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, G.L. Russell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, S.E. Bauer, M.K. Bhat, R. Bleck, V. Canuto, Y.-H. Chen, Y. Cheng, T.L. Clune, A. Del Genio, R. de Fainchtein, G. Faluvegi, J.E. Hansen, R.J. Healy, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, A.A. Lacis, A.N. LeGrande, J. Lerner, K.K. Lo, E.E. Matthews, S. Menon, R.L. Miller, V. Oinas, A.O. Oloso, J.P. Perlwitz, M.J. Puma, W.M. Putman, D. Rind, A. Romanou, M. Sato, D.T. Shindell, S. Sun, R.A. Syed, N. Tausnev, K. Tsigaridis, N. Unger, A. Voulgarakis, M.-S. Yao, and J. Zhang, 2014: Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, 141-184, doi:10.1002/2013MS000265.

    2013

    Hansen, J., P. Kharecha, and M. Sato, 2013: Climate forcing growth rates: Doubling down on our Faustian bargain. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 011006, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/011006.

    Hansen, J., P. Kharecha, M. Sato, V. Masson-Delmotte, F. Ackerman, D.J. Beerling, P. Hearty, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, S.-L. Hsu, C. Parmesan, J. Rockstrom, E.J. Rohling, J. Sachs, P. Smith, K. Steffen, L. Van Susteren, K. von Schuckmann, J.C. Zachos, 2013: Assessing "Dangerous Climate Change": Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature. PLOS ONE, 8, e81468.

     

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 2013a: Reply to Rhines and Huybers: Changes in the frequency of extreme summer heat. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110, E547-E548, doi:10.1073/pnas.1220916110.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 2013b: Reply to Stone et al.: Human-made role in local temperature extremes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110, E1544, doi:10.1073/pnas.1301494110.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, G. Russell, and P. Kharecha, 2013: Climate sensitivity, sea level, and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371, 20120294, doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0294.

    Kharecha, P.A., and J.E. Hansen, 2013a: Prevented mortality and greenhouse gas emissions from historical and projected nuclear power. Environ. Sci. Technol., 47, 4889-4895, doi:10.1021/es3051197.

    Kharecha, P.A., and J.E. Hansen, 2013b: Response to comment on "Prevented mortality and greenhouse gas emissions from historical and projected nuclear power". Environ. Sci. Technol., 47, 6718-6719, doi:10.1021/es402211m.

    Kharecha, P., and J.E. Hansen, 2013c: Response to comment by Rabilloud on "Prevented mortality and greenhouse gas emissions from historical and projected nuclear power". Environ. Sci. Technola., 47, 13900-13901, doi:10.1021/es404806w.

    Lacis, A.A., J.E. Hansen, G.L. Russell, V. Oinas, and J. Jonas, 2013: The role of long-lived greenhouse gases as principal LW control knob that governs the global surface temperature for past and future climate change". Tellus B, 65, 19734, doi:10.3402/tellusb.v65i0.19734.

    Previdi, M., B.G. Liepert, D. Peteet, J. Hansen, D.J. Beerling, A.J. Broccoli, S. Frolking, J.N. Galloway, M. Heimann, C. Le Quéré, S. Levitus, and V. Ramaswamy, 2013: Climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 139, 1121-1131, doi:10.1002/qj.2165.

    2012

    Hansen, J.E., and M. Sato, 2012: Paleoclimate implications for human-made climate change. In Climate Change: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects. A. Berger, F. Mesinger, and D. Šijački, Eds. Springer, pp. 21-48, doi:10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 2012: Perception of climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 109, 14726-14727, E2415-E2423, doi:10.1073/pnas.1205276109.

    Rohling, E.J., A. Sluijs, H.A. Dijkstra, P. Köhler, R.S.W. van de Wal, A.S. von der Heydt, D.J. Beerling, A. Berger, P.K. Bijl, M. Crucifix, R. DeConto, S.S. Drijfhout, A. Fedorov, G.L. Foster, A. Ganopolski, J. Hansen, B. Hönisch, H. Hooghiemstra, M. Huber, P. Huybers, R. Knutti, D.W. Lea, L.J. Lourens, D. Lunt, V. Masson-Demotte, M. Medina-Elizalde, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Pagani, H. Pälike, H. Renssen, D.L. Royer, M. Siddall, P. Valdes, J.C. Zachos, and R.E. Zeebe, 2012: Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, 491, 683-691, doi:10.1038/nature11574.

    2011

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, and K. von Schuckmann, 2011: Earth's energy imbalance and implications. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 13421-13449, doi:10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011.

    2010

    Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo, 2010: Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345

    Kharecha, P.A., C.F. Kutscher, J.E. Hansen, and E. Mazria, 2010: Options for near-term phaseout of CO2 emissions from coal use in the United States. Environ. Sci. Technol., 44, 4050-4062, doi:10.1021/es903884a.

    Masson-Delmotte, V., B. Stenni, K. Pol, P. Braconnot, O. Cattani, S. Falourd, M. Kageyama, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, J.M. Barnola, J. Chappellaz, G. Krinner, S. Johnsen, R. Röthlisberger, J. Hansen, U. Mikolajewicz, and B. Otto-Bliesner, 2010: EPICA Dome C record of glacial and interglacial intensities. Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 113-128, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.09.030.

    2009

    Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F.S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T.M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C.A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P.K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R.W. Corell, V.J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley, 2009: Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecol. Soc., 14, no. 2, 32.

    Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F.S. Chapin, III, E.F. Lambin, T.M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H.J. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C.A. de Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P.K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R.W. Corell, V.J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J.A. Foley, 2009: A safe operating space for humanity. Nature, 461, 472-475, doi:10.1038/461472a.

    Xu, B., J. Cao, J. Hansen, T. Yao, D.J. Joswia, N. Wang, G. Wu, M. Wang, H. Zhao, W. Yang, X. Liu, and J. He, 2009: Black soot and the survival of Tibetan glaciers. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, 22114-22118 doi:10.1073/pnas.0910444106.

    2008

    Hansen, J., 2008: Tipping point: Perspective of a climatologist. In State of the Wild 2008-2009: A Global Portrait of Wildlife, Wildlands, and Oceansa. E. Fearn, Ed. Wildlife Conservation Society/Island Press, pp. 6-15.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D.L. Royer, and J.C. Zachos, 2008: Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217-231, doi:10.2174/1874282300802010217.

    Kharecha, P.A., and J.E. Hansen, 2008: Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, GB3012, doi:10.1029/2007GB003142.

    2007

    Hansen, J.E., 2007a: Scientific reticence and sea level rise. Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 024002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002.

    Hansen, J., 2007b: Climate catastrophe. New Scientist, 195, no. 2614 (July 28), 30-34.

    Hansen, J., 2007c: Why we can't wait: A 5-step plan for solving the global crisis. Nation, 284, no. 18 (May 7), 13-14.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, G. Russell, D.W. Lea, and M. Siddall, 2007: Climate change and trace gases. Phil. Trans. Royal. Soc. A, 365, 1925-1954, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2052.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, P. Kharecha, A. Lacis, R.L. Miller, L. Nazarenko, K. Lo, G.A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, S. Bauer, E. Baum, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Cohen, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, J. Jonas, M. Kelley, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, G. Labow, J. Lerner, S. Menon, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, R. Schmunk, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, D. Streets, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, N. Unger, M. Yao, and S. Zhang, 2007:Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS ModelE. Clim. Dynam., 29, 661-696, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0255-8.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, P. Kharecha, A. Lacis, R.L. Miller, L. Nazarenko, K. Lo, G.A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, S. Bauer, E. Baum, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Cohen, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, J. Jonas, M. Kelley, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, G. Labow, J. Lerner, S. Menon, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, R. Schmunk, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, D. Streets, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, N. Unger, M. Yao, and S. Zhang, 2007:Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 2287-2312.

    Mishchenko, M.I., B. Cairns, G. Kopp, C.F. Schueler, B.A. Fafaul, J.E. Hansen, R.J. Hooker, T. Itchkawich, H.B. Maring, and L.D. Travis, 2007: Accurate monitoring of terrestrial aerosols and total solar irradiance: Introducing the Glory mission. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 677-691, doi:10.1175/BAMS-88-5-677.

    Nazarenko, L., N. Tausnev, and J. Hansen, 2007: The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation simulated by the GISS climate model during 1970-99. Atmos.-Ocean, 45, 81-92, doi:10.3137/ao.450202.

    Novakov, T., S. Menon, T.W. Kirchstetter, D. Koch, and J.E. Hansen, 2007: Reply to comment by R. L. Tanner and D. J. Eatough on "Aerosol organic carbon to black carbon ratios: Analysis of published data and implications for climate forcing". J. Geophys. Res., 112, D02203, doi:10.1029/2006JD007941.

    Rahmstorf, S., A. Cazenave, J.A. Church, J.E. Hansen, R.F. Keeling, D.E. Parker, and R.C.J. Somerville, 2007: Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science, 316, 709, doi:10.1126/science.1136843.

    2006

    Hansen, J., 2006. The threat to the planet. New York Rev. Books, 53, no. 12 (July 13, 2006), 12-16.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, K. Lo, D.W. Lea, and M. Medina-Elizade 2006. Global temperature change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 103, 14288-14293, doi:10.1073/pnas.0606291103.

    Nazarenko, L., N. Tausnev, and J. Hansen 2006. Sea-ice and North Atlantic climate response to CO2-induced warming and cooling conditions. J. Glaciol. 52, 433-439.

    Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, P.J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, M.F. Wehner, K. AchutaRao, T.P. Barnett, J.S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, M. Fiorino, N. Gillett, J.E. Hansen, P.D. Jones, S.A. Klein, G.A. Meehl, S.C.B. Raper, R.W. Reynolds, K.E. Taylor, and W.M. Washington 2006.Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 103, 13905-13910, doi:10.1073/pnas.0602861103.

    Schmidt, G.A., R. Ruedy, J.E. Hansen, I. Aleinov, N. Bell, M. Bauer, S. Bauer, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, Y. Cheng, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, A.D. Friend, T.M. Hall, Y. Hu, M. Kelley, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, A.A. Lacis, J. Lerner, K.K. Lo, R.L. Miller, L. Nazarenko, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, G.L. Russell, Mki. Sato, D.T. Shindell, P.H. Stone, S. Sun, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, and M.-S. Yao 2006. Present day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: Comparison to in-situ, satellite and reanalysis data. J. Climate 19, 153-192, doi:10.1175/JCLI3612.1.

    Shindell, D., G. Faluvegi, A. Lacis, J. Hansen, R. Ruedy, and E. Aguilar 2006. Role of tropospheric ozone increases in 20th century climate change. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D08302, doi:10.1029/2005JD006348.

    Shindell, D.T., G. Faluvegi, R.L. Miller, G.A. Schmidt, J.E. Hansen, and S. Sun 2006. Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L24706, doi:10.1029/2006GL027468.

    2005

    Hansen, J.E. 2005. A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes "dangerous anthropogenic interference"? An editorial essay. Clim. Change 68, 269-279, doi:10.1007/s10584-005-4135-0.

    Hansen, J., L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, J. Willis, A. Del Genio, D. Koch, A. Lacis, K. Lo, S. Menon, T. Tovakov, Ju. Perlwitz, G. Russell, G.A. Schmidt, and N. Tausnev 2005. Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science 308, 1431-1435, doi:10.1126/science.1110252.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, L. Nazarenko, A. Lacis, G.A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, S. Bauer, N. Bell, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, M. Kelley, N. Kiang, D. Koch, J. Lean, J. Lerner, K. Lo, S. Menon, R. Miller, P. Minnis, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, B. Wielicki, T. Wong, M. Yao, and S. Zhang 2005. Efficacy of climate forcings. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D18104, doi:10.1029/2005JD005776.

    Koch, D., and J. Hansen 2005. Distant origins of Arctic black carbon: A Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE experiment. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D04204, doi:10.1029/2004JD005296.

    Novakov, T., S. Menon, T.W. Kirchstetter, D. Koch, and J.E. Hansen 2005. Aerosol organic carbon to black carbon ratios: Analysis of published data and implications for climate forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D21205, doi:10.1029/2005JD005977.

    Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, C. Mears, F.J. Wentz, S.A. Klein, D.J. Seidel, K.E. Taylor, P.W. Thorne, M.F. Wehner, P.J. Gleckler, J.S. Boyle, W.D. Collins, K.W. Dixon, C. Doutriaux, M. Free, Q. Fu, J.E. Hansen, G.S. Jones, R. Ruedy, T.R. Karl, J.R. Lanzante, G.A. Meehl, V. Ramaswamy, G. Russell, and G.A. Schmidt 2005. Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. Science 309, 1551-1556, doi:10.1126/science.1114867.

    2004

    Hansen, J., 2004. Defusing the global warming time bomb. Sci. Amer. 290, no. 3, 68-77.

    Hansen, J., T. Bond, B. Cairns, H. Gaeggler, B. Liepert, T. Novakov, and B. Schichtel 2004. Carbonaceous aerosols in the industrial era.Eos Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union 85, no. 25, 241, 245.

    Hansen, J., and L. Nazarenko 2004. Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 101, 423-428, doi:10.1073/pnas.2237157100.

    Hansen, J., and M. Sato 2004. Greenhouse gas growth rates. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 101, 16109-16114, doi:10.1073/pnas.0406982101.

    Mishchenko, M.I., B. Cairns, J.E. Hansen, L.D. Travis, R. Burg, Y.J. Kaufman, J.V. Martins, and E.P. Shettle 2004. Monitoring of aerosol forcing of climate from space: Analysis of measurement requirements. J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer 88, 149-161, doi:10.1016/j.jqsrt.2004.03.030.

    Novakov, T., and J.E. Hansen 2004. Black carbon emissions in the United Kingdom during the past four decades: An empirical analysis.Atmos. Environ., 4155-4163, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.04.031.

    2003

    Hansen, J., 2003: Can we defuse the global warming time bomb? naturalScience, posted Aug. 1, 2003.

    Novakov, T., V. Ramanathan, J.E. Hansen, T.W. Kirchstetter, M. Sato, J.E. Sinton, and J.A. Satahye, 2003: Large historical changes of fossil-fuel black carbon aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, no. 6, 1324, doi:10.1029/2002GL016345.

    Santer, B.D., R. Sausen, T.M.L. Wigley, J.S. Boyle, K. AchutaRao, C. Doutriaux, J.E. Hansen, G.A. Meehl, E. Roeckner, R. Ruedy, G. Schmidt, and K.E. Taylor, 2003: Behavior of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses, and observations: Decadal changes. J. Geophys. Res., 108, no. D1, 4002, doi:10.1029/2002JD002258.

    Sato, M., J. Hansen, D. Koch, A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, O. Dubovik, B. Holben, M. Chin, and T. Novakov, 2003: Global atmospheric black carbon inferred from AERONET. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 100, 6319-6324, doi:10.1073/pnas.0731897100.

    Sun, S., and J.E. Hansen, 2003: Climate simulations for 1951-2050 with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. J. Climate, 16, 2807-2826, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2807:CSFWAC>2.0.CO;2.

    2002

    Hansen, J.E., 2002: A brighter future. Climatic Change, 52, 435-440, doi:10.1023/A:1014226429221.

    Hansen, J.E. (Ed.), 2002: Air Pollution as a Climate Forcing: A Workshop. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

    Carmichael, G.R., D.G. Streets, G. Calori, M. Amann, M.Z. Jacobson, J. Hansen, and H. Ueda, 2002: Changing trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: Implications for acid deposition. Environ. Sci. Technol., 36, 4707-4713, doi:10.1021/es011509c.

    Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo, 2002: Global warming continues. Science, 295, 275, doi:10.1126/science.295.5553.275c.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, D. Koch, I. Tegen, T. Hall, D. Shindell, B. Santer, P. Stone, T. Novakov, L. Thomason, R. Wang, Y. Wang, D. Jacob, S. Hollandsworth, L. Bishop, J. Logan, A. Thompson, R. Stolarski, J. Lean, R. Willson, S. Levitus, J. Antonov, N. Rayner, D. Parker, and J. Christy, 2002: Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 107, no. D18, 4347, doi:10.1029/2001JD001143.

    Menon, S., J.E. Hansen, L. Nazarenko, and Y. Luo, 2002: Climate effects of black carbon aerosols in China and India. Science, 297, 2250-2253, doi:10.1126/science.1075159.

    Robinson, W.A., R. Ruedy, and J.E. Hansen, 2002: General circulation model simulations of recent cooling in the east-central United States. J. Geophys. Res., 107, no. D24, 4748, doi:10.1029/2001JD001577.

    2001

    Hansen, J.E., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl, 2001: A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 23947-23963, doi:10.1029/2001JD000354.

    Hansen, J.E., and M. Sato, 2001: Trends of measured climate forcing agents. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 98, 14778-14783, doi:10.1073/pnas.261553698.

    Nazarenko, L., J. Hansen, N. Tausnev, and R. Ruedy, 2001: Response of the Northern Hemisphere sea ice to greenhouse forcing in a global climate model. Ann. Glaciol., 33, 513-520, doi:10.3189/172756401781818897.

    Oinas, V., A.A. Lacis, D. Rind, D.T. Shindell, and J.E. Hansen, 2001: Radiative cooling by stratospheric water vapor: Big differences in GCM results. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2791-2794, doi:10.1029/2001GL013137.

    Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, C. Doutriaux, J.S. Boyle, J.E. Hansen, P.D. Jones, G.A. Meehl, E. Roeckner, S. Sengupta, and K.E. Taylor, 2001: Accounting for the effects of volcanoes and ENSO in comparisons of modeled and observed temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 28033-28059, doi:10.1029/2000JD000189.

    Streets, D.G., K. Jiang, X. Hu, J.E. Sinton, X.-Q. Zhang, D. Xu, M.Z. Jacobson, and J.E. Hansen, 2001: Recent reductions in China's greenhouse gas emissions. Science, 294, 1835-1837, doi:10.1126/science.1065226.

    2000

    Hansen, J.E., 2000: The Sun's role in long-term climate change. Space Sci. Rev., 94, 349-356, doi:10.1023/A:1026748129347.

    Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, M. Sato, L. Nazarenko, N. Tausnev, I. Tegen, and D. Koch, 2000: Climate modeling in the global warming debate. In General Circulation Model Development. D. Randall, Ed. Academic Press, 127-164.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and V. Oinas, 2000: Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 97, 9875-9880, doi:10.1073/pnas.170278997.

    Lacis, A.A., B.E. Carlson, and J.E. Hansen, 2000: Retrieval of atmospheric NO2, O3, aerosol optical depth, effective radius and variance information from SAGE II multi-spectral extinction measurements. Appl. Math. Comput., 116, 133-151, doi:10.1016/S0096-3003(99)00200-3.

    1999

    Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, J. Glascoe, and M. Sato, 1999: GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 30997-31022, doi:10.1029/1999JD900835.

    1998

    Hansen, J.E., 1998: Book review of Sir John Houghton's Global Warming: The Complete Briefing. J. Atmos. Chem., 30, 409-412.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, J. Glascoe, and R. Ruedy, 1998: A common sense climate index: Is climate changing noticeably? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 95, 4113-4120.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, I. Tegen, and E. Matthews, 1998: Perspective: Climate forcings in the industrial era. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 95, 12753-12758.

    Hansen, J.E., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and J. Glascoe, 1998: Global climate data and models: A reconciliation. Science, 281, 930-932, doi:10.1126/science.281.5379.930.

    Matthews, E., and J. Hansen (Eds.), 1998: Land Surface Modeling: A Mini-Workshop. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

    1997

    Hansen, J., C. Harris, C. Borenstein, B. Curran, and M. Fox, 1997: Research education. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 25677-25678, doi:10.1029/97JD02172.

    Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, G. Russell, M. Sato, J. Lerner, D. Rind, and P. Stone, 1997: Wonderland climate model. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 6823-6830, doi:10.1029/96JD03435.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, A. Lacis, and R. Ruedy, 1997: The missing climate forcing. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. B, 352, 231-240, doi:10.1098/rstb.1997.0018.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 1997: Radiative forcing and climate response. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 6831-6864, doi:10.1029/96JD03436.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, K. Asamoah, K. Beckford, S. Borenstein, E. Brown, B. Cairns, B. Carlson, B. Curran, S. de Castro, L. Druyan, P. Etwarrow, T. Ferede, M. Fox, D. Gaffen, J. Glascoe, H. Gordon, S. Hollandsworth, X. Jiang, C. Johnson, N. Lawrence, J. Lean, J. Lerner, K. Lo, J. Logan, A. Luckett, M.P. McCormick, R. McPeters, R.L. Miller, P. Minnis, I. Ramberran, G. Russell, P. Russell, P. Stone, I. Tegen, S. Thomas, L. Thomason, A. Thompson, J. Wilder, R. Willson, and J. Zawodny, 1997: Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 25679-25720, doi:10.1029/97JD01495.

    1996

    Hansen, J., 1996: Climatic change: understanding global warming, pp. 173-190, in One World: The Health and Survival of the Human Species in the 21st Century, Ed. R. Lanza, Health Press, Santa Fe, NM, 325 pp.

    Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and R. Reynolds, 1996: Global surface air temperature in 1995: Return to pre-Pinatubo level. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 1665-1668, doi:10.1029/96GL01040.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, K. Asamoah, S. Borenstein, E. Brown, B. Cairns, G. Caliri, M. Campbell, B. Curran, S. de Castro, L. Druyan, M. Fox, C. Johnson, J. Lerner, M.P. McCormick, R.L. Miller, P. Minnis, A. Morrison, L. Pandolfo, I. Ramberran, F. Zaucker, M. Robinson, P. Russell, K. Shah, P. Stone, I. Tegen, L. Thomason, J. Wilder, and H. Wilson, 1996: A Pinatubo climate modeling investigation. In The Mount Pinatubo Eruption: Effects on the Atmosphere and Climate, NATO ASI Series Vol. I 42. G. Fiocco, D. Fua, and G. Visconti, Eds. Springer-Verlag, 233-272.

    1995

    Hansen, J., W. Rossow, B. Carlson, A. Lacis, L. Travis, A. Del Genio, I. Fung, B. Cairns, M. Mishchenko, and M. Sato, 1995: Low-cost long-term monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks. Climatic Change, 31, 247-271, doi:10.1007/BF01095149.

    Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 1995: Long-term changes of the diurnal temperature cycle: Implications about mechanisms of global climate change. Atmos. Res., 37, 175-209, doi:10.1016/0169-8095(94)00077-Q.

    Hansen, J., H. Wilson, M. Sato, R. Ruedy, K. Shah, and E. Hansen, 1995: Satellite and surface temperature data at odds? Climatic Change, 30, 103-117, doi:10.1007/BF01093228.

    1993

    Hansen, J., 1993a: Climate forcings and feedbacks. In Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks, NASA CP-3234. J. Hansen, W. Rossow, and I. Fung, Eds. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 6-12.

    Hansen, J., 1993b: Climsat rationale. In Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks, NASA CP-3234. J. Hansen, W. Rossow, and I. Fung, Eds. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 26-35.

    Hansen, J., A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and H. Wilson, 1993: How sensitive is the world's climate? Natl. Geog. Soc. Res. Exploration, 9, 142-158.

    Hansen, J., W. Rossow, and I. Fung (Eds.), 1993: Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks. NASA CP-3234. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

    Hansen, J., and H. Wilson, 1993: Commentary on the significance of global temperature records. Climatic Change, 25, 185-191, doi:10.1007/BF01661206.

    Pollack, J.B., D. Rind, A. Lacis, J.E. Hansen, M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 1993: GCM simulations of volcanic aerosol forcing. Part I: Climate changes induced by steady-state perturbations. J. Climate, 6, 1719-1742, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1719:GSOVAF>2.0.CO;2.

    Sato, M., J.E. Hansen, M.P. McCormick, and J.B. Pollack, 1993: Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850-1990. J. Geophys. Res., 98, 22987-22994, doi:10.1029/93JD02553.

    1992

    Charlson, R.J., S.E. Schwartz, J.M. Hales, R.D. Cess, J.A. Coakley, Jr., J.E. Hansen, and D.J. Hoffman, 1992: Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols. Science, 255, 423-430, doi:10.1126/science.255.5043.423.

    Hansen, J., A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, and M. Sato, 1992: Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption. Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 215-218, doi:10.1029/91GL02788.

    Lacis, A., J. Hansen, and M. Sato, 1992: Climate forcing by stratospheric aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 1607-1610, doi:10.1029/92GL01620.

    1991

    Hansen, J.E., and A. Lacis, 1991: Sun and water in the greenhouse: Reply to comments. Nature, 349, 467, doi:10.1038/349467c0.

    Hansen, J., D. Rind, A. Del Genio, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, M. Prather, R. Ruedy, and T. Karl, 1991: Regional greenhouse climate effects. In Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations. M.E. Schlesinger, Ed. Elsevier, 211-229.

    1990

    Hansen, J.E., and A.A. Lacis, 1990: Sun and dust versus greenhouse gases: An assessment of their relative roles in global climate change. Nature, 346, 713-719, doi:10.1038/346713a0.

    Hansen, J.E., A.A. Lacis, and R.A. Ruedy, 1990: Comparison of solar and other influences on long-term climate. In Climate Impact of Solar Variability, NASA CP-3086. K.H. Schatten, and A. Arking, Eds. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 135-145.

    Hansen, J., W. Rossow, and I. Fung, 1990: The missing data on global climate change. Issues Sci. Technol., 7, 62-69.

    Lorius, C., J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, J. Hansen, and H. Le Treut, 1990: The ice-core record: Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming. Nature, 347, 139-145, doi:10.1038/347139a0.

    Rind, D., R. Goldberg, J. Hansen, C. Rosenzweig, and R. Ruedy, 1990: Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought. J. Geophys. Res., 95, 9983-10004, doi:10.1029/JD095iD07p09983.

    1989

    Hansen, J., A. Lacis, and M. Prather, 1989: Greenhouse effect of chlorofluorocarbons and other trace gases. J. Geophys. Res., 94, 16417-16421, doi:10.1029/JD094iD13p16417.

    1988

    Hansen, J., I. Fung, A. Lacis, D. Rind, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, G. Russell, and P. Stone, 1988: Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 9341-9364, doi:10.1029/JD093iD08p09341.

    Hansen, J., and S. Lebedeff, 1988: Global surface air temperatures: Update through 1987. Geophys. Res. Lett., 15, 323-326, doi:10.1029/GL015i004p00323.

    1987

    Hansen, J.E., and S. Lebedeff, 1987: Global trends of measured surface air temperature. J. Geophys. Res., 92, 13345-13372, doi:10.1029/JD092iD11p13345.

    Ramanathan, V., L. Callis, R. Cess, J. Hansen, I. Isaksen, W. Kuhn, A. Lacis, F. Luther, J. Mahlman, R. Reck, and M. Schlesinger, 1987: Climate-chemical interactions and effects of changing atmospheric trace gases. Rev. Geophys., 25, 1441-1482, doi:10.1029/RG025i007p01441.

    1986

    Hunten, D.M., L. Colin, and J.E. Hansen, 1986: Atmospheric science on the Galileo mission. Space Sci. Rev., 44, 191-240, doi:10.1007/BF00200817.

    1985

    Bennett, T., W. Broecker, and J. Hansen (Eds.), 1985: North Atlantic Deep Water Formation. NASA CP-2367. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

    Hansen, J.E., 1985: Geophysics: Global sea level trends. Nature, 313, 349-350, doi:10.1038/313349a0.

    Hansen, J., G. Russell, A. Lacis, I. Fung, D. Rind, and P. Stone, 1985: Climate response times: Dependence on climate sensitivity and ocean mixing. Science, 229, 857-859, doi:10.1126/science.229.4716.857.

    1984

    Hansen, J., A. Lacis, and D. Rind, 1984: Climate trends due to increasing greenhouse gases. In Proceedings of the Third Symposium on Coastal and Ocean Management, ASCE/San Diego, California, June 1-4, 1983, 2796-2810.

    Hansen, J., A. Lacis, D. Rind, G. Russell, P. Stone, I. Fung, R. Ruedy, and J. Lerner, 1984: Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms. In Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity. J.E. Hansen, and T. Takahashi, Eds., AGU Geophysical Monograph 29, Maurice Ewing Vol. 5. American Geophysical Union, 130-163.

    Hansen, J.E., and T. Takahashi (Eds.), 1984: Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity. AGU Geophysical Monograph 29, Maurice Ewing Vol. 5. American Geophysical Union.

    Rind, D., R. Suozzo, A. Lacis, G. Russell, and J. Hansen, 1984: 21 Layer Troposphere-Stratosphere Climate Model. NASA TM-86183. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

    1983

    Hansen, J., V. Gornitz, S. Lebedeff, and E. Moore, 1983: Global mean sea level: Indicator of climate change? Science, 219, 997, doi:10.1126/science.219.4587.997.

    Hansen, J., D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, 1983: Climatic effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science, 220, 874-875, doi:10.1126/science.220.4599.874-a.

    Hansen, J., G. Russell, D. Rind, P. Stone, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, and L. Travis, 1983: Efficient three-dimensional global models for climate studies: Models I and II. Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 609-662, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<0609:ETDGMF>2.0.CO;2.

    Pinto, J.P., D. Rind, G.L. Russell, J.A. Lerner, J.E. Hansen, Y.L. Yung, and S. Hameed, 1983: A general circulation model study of atmospheric carbon monoxide. J. Geophys. Res., 88, 3691-3702, doi:10.1029/JC088iC06p03691.

    1982

    Gornitz, V., S. Lebedeff, and J. Hansen, 1982: Global sea level trend in the past century. Science, 215, 1611-1614, doi:10.1126/science.215.4540.1611.

    1981

    Hansen, J., D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, 1981: Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science, 213, 957-966, doi:10.1126/science.213.4511.957.

    Lacis, A., J. Hansen, P. Lee, T. Mitchell, and S. Lebedeff, 1981: Greenhouse effect of trace gases, 1970-1980. Geophys. Res. Lett., 8, 1035-1038, doi:10.1029/GL008i010p01035.

    1980

    Hansen, J., 1980: Review of Theory of Planetary Atmospheres by J.W. Chamberlain. Icarus, 41, 175-176.

    Hansen, J.E., A.A. Lacis, P. Lee, and W.-C. Wang, 1980: Climatic effects of atmospheric aerosols. Ann. New York Acad. Sci., 338, 575-587, doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.1980.tb17151.x.

    Kawabata, K., D.L. Coffeen, J.E. Hansen, W.A. Lane, M.O. Sato, and L.D. Travis, 1980: Cloud and haze properties from Pioneer Venus polarimetry. J. Geophys. Res., 85, 8129-8140, doi:10.1029/JA085iA13p08129.

    1979

    Sato, M., and J.E. Hansen, 1979: Jupiter's atmospheric composition and cloud structure deduced from absorption bands in reflected sunlight. J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1133-1167, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<1133:JACACS>2.0.CO;2.

    Travis, L.D., D.L. Coffeen, A.D. Del Genio, J.E. Hansen, K. Kawabata, A.A. Lacis, W.A. Lane, S.S. Limaye, W.B. Rossow, and P.H. Stone, 1979: Cloud images from the Pioneer Venus orbiter. Science, 205, 74-76, doi:10.1126/science.205.4401.74.

    Travis, L.D., D.L. Coffeen, J.E. Hansen, K. Kawabata, A.A. Lacis, W.A. Lane, S.S. Limaye, and P.H. Stone, 1979: Orbiter cloud photopolarimeter investigation. Science, 203, 781-785, doi:10.1126/science.203.4382.781.

    1978

    Hansen, J.E., W.-C. Wang, and A.A. Lacis, 1978: Mount Agung eruption provides test of a global climatic perturbation. Science, 199, 1065-1068, doi:10.1126/science.199.4333.1065.

    1977

    Knollenberg, R.G., J. Hansen, B. Ragent, J. Martonchik, and M. Tomasko, 1977: The clouds of Venus. Space Sci. Rev., 20, 329-354, doi:10.1007/BF02186469.

    Lillie, C.F., C.W. Hord, K. Pang, D.L. Coffeen, and J.E. Hansen, 1977: The Voyager mission Photopolarimeter Experiment. Space Sci. Rev., 21, 159-181, doi:10.1007/BF00200849.

    Sato, M., K. Kawabata, and J.E. Hansen, 1977: A fast invariant imbedding method for multiple scattering calculations and an application to equivalent widths of CO2 lines on Venus. Astrophys. J., 216, 947-962, doi:10.1086/155539.

    Schubert, G., C.C. Counselman, III, J. Hansen, S.S. Limaye, G. Pettengill, A. Seiff, I.I. Shapiro, V.E. Suomi, F. Taylor, L. Travis, R. Woo, and R.E. Young, 1977: Dynamics, winds, circulation and turbulence in the atmosphere of Venus. Space Sci. Rev., 20, 357-387, doi:10.1007/BF02186459.

    1976

    Kawata, Y., and J.E. Hansen, 1976: Circular polarization of sunlight reflected by Jupiter. In Jupiter: Studies of the Interior, Atmosphere, Magneteosphere, and Satellites. T. Gehrels, Ed. University of Arizona Press, 516-530.

    Somerville, R.C.J., W.J. Quirk, J.E. Hansen, A.A. Lacis, and P.H. Stone, 1976: A search for short-term meteorological effects of solar variability in an atmospheric circulation model. J. Geophys. Res., 81, 1572-1576, doi:10.1029/JC081i009p01572.

    Wang, W.-C., Y.L. Yung, A.A. Lacis, T. Mo, and J.E. Hansen, 1976: Greenhouse effects due to man-made perturbation of trace gases. Science, 194, 685-690, doi:10.1126/science.194.4266.685.

    1975

    Hansen, J.E. (Ed.), 1975: The Atmosphere of Venus. NASA SP-382. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

    Hansen, J.E., and D. Coffeen, 1975: Analysis of cloud polarization measurements. Conference on Cloud Physics, Tucson, Ariz., October 21-24, 1974, Proceedings. (A75-44379 22-47) Boston, American Meteorological Society, 1975, p. 350-356.

    Kawabata, K., and J.E. Hansen, 1975: Interpretation of the variation of polarization over the disk of Venus. J. Atmos. Sci., 32, 1133-1139, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<1133:IOTVOP>2.0.CO;2.

    1974

    Coffeen, D., and J.E. Hansen, 1974: Polarization studies of planetary atmospheresa. In Planets, Stars and Nebulae Studied with Photopolarimetry (T. Gehrels, Ed. pp. 1133) University of Arizona Press, Tucson, AZ, p. 518-581. doi: 10.2307/j.ctt2050vsn

    Hansen, J.E., and J.W. Hovenier, 1974a: Interpretation of the polarization of Venus. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1137-1160, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<1137:IOTPOV>2.0.CO;2.

    Hansen, J.E., and J.W. Hovenier, 1974b: Nature Venus Clouds as Derived from Their Polarzation in Exploration of the planetary system; Proceedings of the Symposium, Torun, Poland, September 5-8, 1973. (A75-21276 08-91) Dordrecht, D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1974, p. 197-200. Research supported by the Nederlandse Organisatie voor Zuiver-Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek; Bibliographic Code: 1974IAUS...65..197H

    Hansen, J.E., and L.D. Travis, 1974: Light scattering in planetary atmospheres. Space Sci. Rev., 16, 527-610, doi:10.1007/BF00168069.

    Lacis, A.A., and J.E. Hansen, 1974a: A parameterization for the absorption of solar radiation in the Earth's atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 118-133, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<0118:APFTAO>2.0.CO;2.

    Lacis, A.A., and J.E. Hansen, 1974b: Atmosphere of Venus: Implications of Venera 8 sunlight measurements. Science, 184, 979-983, doi:10.1126/science.184.4140.979.

    Somerville, R.C.J., P.H. Stone, M. Halem, J.E. Hansen, J.S. Hogan, L.M. Druyan, G. Russell, A.A. Lacis, W.J. Quirk, and J. Tenenbaum, 1974: The GISS model of the global atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 84-117, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<0084:TGMOTG>2.0.CO;2.

    1973

    Coffeen, D., and J.E. Hansen, 1973: Airborne infrared polarimetry. In Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment, Ann Arbor, Mich., October 2-6, 1972, vol. 1. Environmental Research Institute of Michigan, 515-522.

    Whitehill, L.P., and J.E. Hansen, 1973: On the interpretation of the "inverse phase effect" for CO2 equivalent widths on Venus. Icarus, 20, 146-152, doi:10.1016/0019-1035(73)90047-X.

    1972

    Hansen, J.E., and D. Coffeen, 1972: Polarization of near-infrared sunlight reflected by terrestrial clouds. Conference on Atmospheric Radiation, Fort Collins, Colo., August 7-9, 1972, Preprints. (A73-10351 01-13) Boston, American Meteorological Society, 1972, p. 55-60.

    1971

    Hansen, J.E., 1971a: Circular polarization of sunlight reflected by clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1515-1516, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<1515:CPOSRB>2.0.CO;2.

    Hansen, J.E., 1971b: Multiple scattering of polarized light in planetary atmospheres. Part I. The doubling method. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 120-125, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0120:MSOPLI>2.0.CO;2.

    Hansen, J.E., 1971c: Multiple scattering of polarized light in planetary atmospheres. Part II. Sunlight reflected by terrestrial water clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1400-1426, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<1400:MSOPLI>2.0.CO;2.

    Hansen, J.E., and A. Arking, 1971: Clouds of Venus: Evidence for their nature. Science, 171, 669-672, doi:10.1126/science.171.3972.669.

    Hansen, J.E., and J.W. Hovenier, 1971: The doubling method applied to multiple scattering of polarized light. J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer, 11, 809-812, doi:10.1016/0022-4073(71)90057-4.

    Liou, K.-N., and J.E Hansen, 1971: Intensity and polarization for single scattering by polydisperse spheres: A comparison of ray optics and Mie theory. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 995-1004, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0995:IAPFSS>2.0.CO;2.

    1970

    Hansen, J.E., and J.B. Pollack, 1970: Near-infrared light scattering by terrestrial clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 265-281, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1970)027<0265:NILSBT>2.0.CO;2.

    1969

    Hansen, J.E., 1969a: Absorption-line formation in a scattering planetary atmosphere: A test of Van de Hulst's similarity relations. Astrophys. J., 158, 337-349, doi:10.1086/150196.

    Hansen, J.E., 1969b: Exact and approximate solutions for multiple scattering by cloud and hazy planetary atmospheres. J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 478-487, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1969)026<0478:EAASFM>2.0.CO;2.

    Hansen, J.E., 1969c: Radiative transfer by doubling very thin layers. Astrophys. J., 155, 565-573, doi:10.1086/149892.

    Hansen, J.E., and H. Cheyney, 1969: Theoretical spectral scattering of ice clouds in the near infrared. J. Geophys. Res., 74, 3337-3346, doi:10.1029/JC074i013p03337.

    1968

    Hansen, J.E., and H. Cheyney, 1968a: Comments on the paper by D.G. Rea and B.T. O'Leary, "On the composition of the Venus clouds". J. Geophys. Res., 73, 6136-6137, doi:10.1029/JB073i018p06136.

    Hansen, J.E., and H. Cheyney, 1968b: Near infrared reflectivity of Venus and ice clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 25, 629-633, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1968)025<0629:NIROVA>2.0.CO;2.

    1967

    Hansen, J.E., and S. Matsushima, 1967: The atmosphere and surface temperature of Venus: A dust insulation model. Astrophys. J., 150, 1139-1157, doi:10.1086/149410.

    Kevin Anderson is another distinguished and independent climate scientists whose papers we rely upon. He is Professor of Energy and Climate Change, holding a joint chair in the School of Engineering at the University of Manchester (UK) and in Centre for Sustainability and the Environment (CEMUS) at Uppsala University (Sweden). He recently finished a two year fellowship as the Zennstrøm Professor of Climate Change Leadership in Uppsala, and has previously been both Deputy Director and Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. While we mostly agree with his climate research, there are some areas in which we disagree.

    Here are a few of his more recent climate studies:

    2019

    1. Setting Climate Change Commitments for West Midlands Combined Authority Area: Quantifying the Implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on Climate Change for West Midlands Combined Authority. ...  

    Kuriakose, J., Jones, C., Anderson, K., Broderick, J. & McLachlan, C., 14 Jul 2019, Manchester: University of Manchester. 19 p. Research output: Book/ReportCommissioned report

    2. Trade and trade-offs: Shipping in changing climates

    Walsh, C., Lazarou, N-J., Traut, M., Price, J., Raucci, C., Sharmina, M., Agnolucci, P., Mander, S., Gilbert, P., Anderson, K., Larkin, A. & Smith, T., 2019, In: Marine Policy. Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2019.103537

    2018

    1. Quantifying the implications of the Paris Agreement for the city of Manchester

    Kuriakose, J., Anderson, K., Broderick, J. & Mclachlan, C., Jul 2018, 6 p.

    Research output: Book/ReportCommissioned report

    2. Quantifying the implications of the Paris Agreement: What role for Scotland?

    Kuriakose, J., Anderson, K. & Mclachlan, C., May 2018, 16 p. Research output: Book/ReportCommissioned report

    3. Quantifying the implications of the Paris Agreement for Greater Manchester

    Kuriakose, J., Anderson, K., Broderick, J. & Mclachlan, C., Mar 2018, Manchester: University of Manchester. 36 p. Research output: Book/ReportOther report

    4. CO2 abatement goals for international shipping

    Traut, M., Larkin, A., Anderson, K., McGlade, C., Sharmina, M. & Smith, T., 2018, In: Climate Policy. 18, 8, p. 1066-1075 Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2018.1461059

    2017

    1. Natural gas and climate change

    Anderson, K. & Broderick, J., 7 Nov 2017, University of Manchester. 58 p. Research output: Book/ReportCommissioned report

    2. What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations

    Larkin, A., Kuriakose, J., Sharmina, M. & Anderson, K., 3 Aug 2017, In: Climate Policy.18, 6, p. 690-714 Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2017.1346498

    3. The Role of Bio-energy with Carbon Capture and Storage in Meeting the Climate Mitigation Challenge: A Whole System Perspective

    Mander, S., Anderson, K., Larkin, A., Gough, C. & Vaughan, N., 2017, Energy Procedia. p. 6036 6043 p. Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.1739

    2016

    1. The trouble with negative emissions

    Anderson, K. & Peters, G., 14 Oct 2016, In: Science. 354, 3609, p. 182-183 2 p. Research output: Contribution to journalArticle DOI: 10.1126/science.aah4567 ....

    2. Planting Seeds So Something Bigger Might Emerge: The Paris Agreement and the Fight Against Climate Change

    Anderson, K. & Nevins, J., 13 Jul 2016, In: Socialism and Democracy. 30, 2, p. 209-218 Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review DOI: 10.1080/08854300.2016.1183992

    3. Aviation and Climate Change–The Continuing Challenge

    Larkin, A., Mander, S., Traut, M., Anderson, K. & Wood, F., 15 May 2016, Encyclopedia of Aerospace Engineering. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Capitalism and Commerce in Imaginative Literature Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterpeer-review DOI: 10.1002/9780470686652.eae1031
    Sharmina, M., Hoolohan, C., Bows-Larkin, A., Burgess, P. J., Colwill, J., Gilbert, P., Howard, D., Knox, J. & Anderson, K., 1 May 2016, In: Environmental Science and Policy.59, p. 74-84 11 p. Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.02.008
    2015
    Anderson, K., 21 Dec 2015, In: Nature. 528, 1 p. Research output: Contribution to journalArticle DOI: 10.1038/528437a

    2. Russia's cumulative carbon budgets for a global 2°C target

    Sharmina, M., Bows-Larkin, A. & Anderson, K., 30 Nov 2015, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Carbon Management. Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2015.1113616

    3. Duality in climate science

    Anderson, K., 12 Oct 2015, In: Nature Geoscience. Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2559

    4 Radical emission reductions: the role of demand reductions in accelerating full decarbonization

    Anderson, K., Quere, C. L. & Mclachlan, C., Jun 2015, In: Carbon Management. 5, 4, p. 321-323 Research output: Contribution to journalEditorialpeer-review

    5. Shipping charts a high carbon course

    Bows-Larkin, A., Anderson, K., Mander, S., Traut, M. & Walsh, C., Apr 2015, In: Nature Climate Change. 5, p. 293-295 2 p. Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2532

    6. Call for Evidence: Resilience of Electricity Infrastructure

    Panteli, M., Mancerella, P., Anderson, K., Calverley, D., Cotton, I., Dawson, R., Fu, G., Abi Ghanem, D., Glynn, S., Gough, C., Hu, X., Kilsby, C., Kuriakose, J., Mander, S., Manning, L., Pickering, C., Teh, J., Wilkinson, S. & Wood, R., Mar 2015, No publisher name. (House of Lords Science and Technology Committee - The resilience of the electricity infrastructure) Research output: Book/ReportCommissioned report

    7. 'Estimating 2°C Carbon Budgets for Wales’. A research briefing commissioned by the Climate Change Commission for Wales

    Glynn, S. & Anderson, K., 2015, No publisher nameResearch output: Book/ReportCommissioned report

    8. Impact of climate change on the resilience of the UK power system

    Panteli, M., Mancarella, P., Hu, X., Cotton, I., Calverley, D., Wood, R., Pickering, C., Wilkinson, S., Dawson, R. & Anderson, K., 2015, IET Conference Publications. CP668 ed.Institution of Engineering and Technology , Vol. 2015Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review
    2014

    1. High Seas, High Stakes: High Seas Final Report

    Bows-Larkin, A., Mander, S., Gilbert, P., Traut, M., Walsh, C. & Anderson, K., Aug 2014, Tyndall Centre. 44 p. Research output: Book/ReportCommissioned report
    Anderson, K., Wood, R., Mander, S. & Glynn, S., 15 Apr 2014, The futures electric: can we take the heat?. Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

    3. Energy demand and the 2°C commitment Choice-editing the car market: radical reductions without reinventing the wheel

    Anderson, K. & Calverley, D., 2014, Tyndall CentreResearch output: Book/ReportCommissioned report
    2013

    1. An emergent conspiracy: is the clamour for policy-based evidence silencing science?

    Anderson, K., Dec 2013, (An emergent conspiracy: is the clamour for policy-based evidence silencing science?). Research output: Working paper

    2. Going beyond two degrees? The risks and opportunities of alternative options

    Bows-Larkin, A., Jordan, A., Rayner, T., Schroeder, H., Adger, N., Anderson, K., Bows, A., Quéré, C. L., Joshi, M., Mander, S., Vaughan, N. & Whitmarsh, L., Nov 2013, In: Climate Policy. 13, 6, p. 751-769 18 p. Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2013.835705

    3. Carbon budgets for aviation or gamble with our future?

    Anderson, K. & Bows, A., 2013, Sustainable Aviation Futures. Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

    4. Coaxing the mitigation phoenix from the ashes of the EU ETS: why the near-collapse of Europe's carbon trading scheme could be good for reducing emissions

    Anderson, K., 2013, (Coaxing the mitigation phoenix from the ashes of the EU ETS: why the near-collapse of Europe's carbon trading scheme could be good for reducing emissions). Research output: Working paper

     

    Michael Mann is an American climatologist and geophysicist. He is the director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. Mann has contributed to the scientific understanding of historic climate change based on the temperature record of the past thousand years. He has pioneered techniques to find patterns in past climate change and to isolate climate signals from noisy data. While we mostly agree with his climate research, there are some areas in which we disagree. He is another respected and independent climate scientist whose research we rely upon. Here are a few of his papers:

    Abraham, J.P., Cheng, L., Mann, M.E., Trenberth, K.E., von Schuckmann, K., The Ocean Response to Climate Change Guides Both Adaptation and Mitigation EffortsAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 15, 100221, doi: 10.1016/j.aosl.2022.100221, 2022. [altmetric]

    Steinman, B.A., Stansell, N.D., Mann, M.E., Cooke, C.A., Abbott, M.B., Vuille, M., Bird, B.W., Lachniet, M.S., Fernandez, A., Interhemispheric antiphasing of neotropical precipitation during the past millenniumProc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 119(17), e2120015119, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2120015119, 2022. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., The legacy of Rajendra Pachauri: a personal reflection, in “Dr R K Pachauri: The Crusader Against Climate Change”, Yateendra Joshi, P K Jayanthan, Vibha Dhawan, Amit Kumar, Rakesh Kacker (ed.s),  TERI Alumni Association, 2 pp, 2022.

    Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Brouillette, D.J., Fernandez, A., Miller, S.K., On The Estimation of Internal Climate Variability During the Preindustrial Past Millennium, Geophys Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL096596, doi: 10.1029/2021GL096596, 2022. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Cheng, L., Abraham, J.P., Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Mann, M.E., Zhu, J., Wang, F., Locarnini, R., Li, Y., Zhang, B., Tan, Z., Yu, F., Wan, L., Chen, X., Song, X., Liu, Y., Reseghetti, F., Simoncelli, S., Gouretski, V., Chen, G., Mishonov, A., Reagan, J., Another record: Ocean warming continues through 2021 Despite La Nina Conditions, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, doi:10.1007/s00376-022-1461-3, 2022. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Beyond the Hockey Stick: Climate Lessons from The Common Era, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 118 (39) e2112797118; doi: 10.1073/pnas.2112797118, 2021. (see also the accompanying author profile) [altmetric]

    Mukherjee, S., G., Mishra, A.K., Mann, M.E., Raymond, C., Anthropogenic Warming and Population Growth May Double US Heat Stress by the Late 21st Century, Earth’s Future, 9, e2020EF001886. doi:10.1029/2020EF001886, 2021. [altmetric]

    Meehl, G.A., Richter, J.H., Teng, H., Capotondi, A, Cobb, K., Doblas-Reyes, F., Donat, M.G., England, M.H., Fyfe, J.C., Han, W., Kim, H., Kirtman, B.P., Kushnir, Y., Lovenduski, N.S., Mann, M.E., Merryfield, W.J., Nieves, V., Pegion, K., Rosenbloom, N., Sanchez, S.C.,. Scaife, A.A., Smith, D., Subramanian, A.C., Sun, L., Thompson, D., Ummenhofer, C.C., Xie, S.-P., Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales, Nat Rev Earth Environ, doi: 10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x, 2021. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Hall, L.J., Dulvy, N., Scientific Impact in a Changing World, Cell  (“Voices”), 184, 407-408, 2021. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Brouillette, D.J.., Miller, S.K., Multidecadal Climate Oscillations During the Past Millennium Driven by Volcanic Forcing, Science, 371, 1014–1019, 2021. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Cheng, L., Abraham, J.P., Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Locarnini, R., Zhang, B., Yu, F., Wan, L., Chen, X., Song, X., Liu, Y, Mann, M.E., Zhu, J., Upper Ocean Temperatures Hit Record High in 2020, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 38, 523-530, 2021. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., From Climate Scientist to Climate Communicator: A Process of Evolution,  in "Standing up for a Sustainable World: Voices of Change",  Claude Henry, Johan Rockström, and Nicholas Stern (ed.s), Edward Elgar Publishing, 5 pp, 2020.

    Cheng, L., Trenberth, K.E., Gruber, J., Abraham, J.P., Fasullo, J.T., Li., G., Mann, M.E., Zhao, X., Zhu, J., Improved estimates of changes in upper ocean salinity and the hydrological cycle, J. Climate, 33, 10357–10381, 2020. [altmetric]

    Li, G., Cheng, L., Abraham, J.P., Zhu, J., Trenberth, K.E., Mann, M.E., Abraham, J.P., Increasing ocean stratification over the past half-century, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-00918-2, 2020. [altmetric]

    Konapala, L., Mishra, A.K., Wada. Y., Mann, M.E., Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation, Nature Communications, 11, 3044, doi:10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w, 2020. [altmetric]

    Cheng, L., Abraham, J.P., Zhu, J., Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Locarnini, R., Zhang, B., Yu, F., Wan, L., Chen, X., Song, X., Liu, Y., Mann, M.E., Record-setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019, Advances in Atmospheric Science 37, 137-142, 2020. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., Absence of Internal Multidecadal and Interdecadal Oscillations in Climate Model Simulations, Nature Communications 11, 49, doi:10.1038/s41467-019-13823-w, 2020. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Post, E., Alley, R.B., Christensen, T.R., Macias-Fauria, M., Forbes, B.C., Gooseff, M.N., Iler, A., Kerby, J.T., Laidre, K.L., Mann, M.E., Olofsson, J., Stroeve, J.C., Ulmer, F., Virginia, R.A., Wang, M., The Polar Regions in a 2oC warmer world, Science Advances, 5, eaaw9883 doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw9883, 2019. [altmetric]

    Fick, D.M., Kolanowski, A.M., McDermott Levy, R.., Mann, M.E., Addressing the Health Risks of Climate Change in Older Adults, Journal of Gerontological Nursing, 45, 21-29, 2019. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Radical reform and the Green New Deal, Nature, 573, 340-341, 2019. [altmetric]

    Verbitsky, M..Y., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Volobuev, D.M., Detecting causality signal in instrumental measurements and climate model simulations: global warming case study, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4053–4060, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4053-2019, 2019.

    Hagedorn, G., Kalmus, P., Mann, M., Vicca, S., Van den Berge, J., van Ypersele, J.-P., Bourg, D., Rotmans, J., Karronen, R., Rahmstorf, S., Kromp-Kolb, H., Kirchengast, G., Knutti, R., Seneviratne, S.I., Thalmann, P., Cretney, R., Green, A., Anderson, K., Hedberg, M., Nilsson, D., Kuttner, A., Hayhoe, K., Concerns of Young Protestors are Justified, Science, 364, 139-140, 2019. [altmetric]

    Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Skirving, W., Lough, J., Liu, C., Mann, M.E., Donner, S., Eakin, M., Cantin, N., Miller, S., Heron, S.F., Dove, S. Commentary: Reconstructing Four Centuries of Temperature-Induced Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Frontiers in Marine Science doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00086, 2019. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., The Weather Amplifier, Scientific American, 320, 43-49, 2019.

    Lewandowsky, S., Cowtan, K., Risbey, J.S., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Oreskes, N., Rahmstorf, S., The “pause” in global warming in historical context: Comparing models to observations, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 123007, 2018. [altmetric]

    Walker, A.M., Titley, D.W., Mann, M.E., Najjar, R.G., Miller, S.K., A Fiscally Based Scale for Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge, Weather and Forecasting, 33, 1709-1733, 2018. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf, S., Kornhuber, K., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., Coumou, D., Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events: The role of quasi-resonant amplification, Science Advances, 4:eaat3272, 2018. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Li, M., Kump, L., Hinnov, L.A., Mann, M.E., Tracking variable sedimentation rates and astronomical forcing in Phanerozoic paleoclimate proxy series with evolutionary correlation coefficients and hypothesis testing, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 501, 165-179, 2018.  [altmetric]

    Frankcombe, L.M., England, M.H., Kajtar, J.B., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., On the Choice of Ensemble Mean for Estimating the Forced Signal in the Presence of Internal Variability, J. Climate, 31, 5681-5693, 2018. [altmetric]

    Restrepo, J.M., Mann, M.E., Uncertainty in Climate Science: Not Cause for Inaction, Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics News, 51, p. 1, 5, 2018.

    Sinha, P., Mann, M.E., Fuentes, J.D., Mejia, A., Ning, L., Weiyi, S., He, T., Obeysekera, J., Downscaled rainfall projections in south Florida using self organizing maps,  variability, Science of the Total Environment, 635, 1110-1123, 2018. [altmetric]

    Harvey, J.A., van den Berg, D., Ellers, J., Kampen, R., Crowther, T.W., Roessingh, P., Verheggen, B., Nuijten, R.J.M., Post, E., Lewandowsky, S., Stirling, I., Balgopal, M., Amstrup, S.C., Mann, M.E., Internet blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate Change Denial by Proxy, Bioscience, 68, 281-287, 2018. [altmetric]

    Schurer, A., Cowtan, K., Hawkins, E., Mann, M.E., Scott, V., Tett, S.F.B., Interpretations of the Paris Climate Target, Nature Geoscience, 1752-0908, doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0086-8, 2018. [altmetric]

    Post, E., Steinman, B.A., Mann, M.E., Rates of phenological advance and warming have increased with latitude in the Northern Hemisphere over the past century, Scientific Reports 8, 3297, 2018. [altmetric]

    Garner, A., Kopp, R.E., Horton, B.P., Mann, M.E., Alley, R.B., Emanuel, K.A., Lin, N., Donnelly, J.P., Kemp, A.C., DeConto, R.M., Pollard, D., New York City’s evolving flood risk from hurricanes and sea level rise, Variations/Exchanges, U.S. CLIVAR, 16, 30-35, Winter 2018.

    Mann, M.E., Time for a Different Story, New Scientist, p. 22-23, Feb. 24, 2018.

    Cheung, A.H., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Frankcombe, L.M., England, M.H., Miller, S.K., Reply to Comment on “Comparison of low-frequency internal climate variability in CMIP5 models and observations” by Kratsov, J. Climate, 30, 9773-9782, 2017.  [altmetric]

    Garner, A.J., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Kopp, R.E., Lin, N., Alley, R.B., Horton, B.P., DeConto, R.M. Donnelly, J.P., Pollard, D., The Impact of Climate Change on New York City’s Coastal Flood Hazard: Increasing Flood Heights from the Pre-Industrial to 2300 CE, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 114, 11861-11866, 2017. [altmetric]

    Lewandowsky, S., Freeman, M.C., Mann, M.E., Harnessing the uncertainty monster: Putting quantitative constraints on the intergenerational social discount rate, Global and Planetary Change, 156, 155–166, 2017. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Lloyd, E.A., Oreskes, N., Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Weather Events: The Case For an Alternative (Bayesian) Approach, Climatic Change, 144, 131-142, 2017. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., Rahmstorf, S., Steinman, B.A., Tingley M., Record Temperature Streak Bears Anthropogenic Fingerprint, Geophys Res. Lett., 44, doi:10.1002/2017GL074056, 2017. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., review of The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, in Summer Books, Nature, 546, 28-29, 2017.

    Mann, M.E., Al Gore gets inconvenient again, Nature, 546, 400-401, 2017. [altmetric]

    Schurer, A.P., Mann, M.E., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G.C., Tett, S.F.B., Importance of the pre-Industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals, Nature Climate Change, 7, 563-567, 2017. [altmetric]

    Abraham, J.P., Cheng, L., Mann, M.E.,  Future Climate Projections Allow Engineering Planning, Forensic Engineering, 170, 54-57, 2017. [altmetric]

    Santer, B.D., Fyfe, J.C., Pallotta, G., Flato, G.M., Meehl, G.A., England, M.H., Hawkins, E., Mann, M.E., Painter, J.F., Bonfils, C., Cvijanovic, I., Meers, C., Wentz, F.J., Po-Chedley, S., Qiang, F., Zou, C.-Z.,  Investigating the Causes of Differences in Model and Satellite Tropospheric Warming Rates, Nature Geoscience, 10, 478-485, 2017. [altmetric]

    Cheung, A.H., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Frankcombe, L.M., England, M.H., Miller, S.K., Comparison of Low Frequency Internal Climate Variability in CMIP5 Models and Observations, J. Climate, 30, 4763-4776, 2017. [altmetric]

    Grajal, A, Luebke, J.F., Clayton, S., Saunders, C.D., Kelly, L-A, Matiasek, J., Stanoss, R., Goldman, S.D., Mann, M.E., Karazsia, B.T.,  A complex relationship between personal affective connections to animals and self-reported pro-environmental behaviors by zoo visitors, Conservation Biology, 31, 322-330, 2017. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf, S., Kornhuber, K., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., Coumou, D., Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events, Scientific Reports, 7, 19831, 2017. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Joy-Hassol, S., Climate Trumps Everything, Scientific American, 316, 8, 2017.

    Bateman, T.S., Mann, M.E., The supply of climate leaders must grow, Nature Climate Change, 6, 1052-1054, 2016. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Oreskes, N., Emanuel, K.A., AGU Should Sever Its Ties with ExxonMobil, Eos, 97, 8-9, doi:10.1029/2016EO061455, 2016.

    Lewandowsky, S., Mann, M.E., Brown, N.J.L., Friedman, H., Science and the Public: Debate, Denial, and Skepticism, Journal of Social and Political Psychology, 4, 1-99, doi:10.5964/jspp.v4i2.604, 2016. [altmetric]

    Zhang, F., Li, W. Mann, M.E., Limits to Regional-scale Climate Predictability over North AmericaAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33, 905-918, 2016. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Steinman, B., Miller, S.K., Frankcombe, L., England, M., Cheung, A.H., Predictability of the Recent Slowdown and Subsequent Recovery of Large-Scale Surface Warming using Statistical Methods, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3459-3467, 2016. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Fyfe, J.C, Meehl, G.A., England, M.H., Mann, M.E., Santer, B.D., Flato, G.M., Hawkins, E., Gillet, N.P., Xie, S.-P., Kosaka, Y., Swart, N.C., Making sense of the early-2000s global warming slowdownNature Climate Change, 6, 224-228, 2016. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Must Try HarderNew Scientist, p. 29-30, Feb 20, 2016.

    Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf, S., Steinman, B.A., Tingley, M., Miller, S.K., The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth, Scientific Reports, 6, 19831, 2016. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Steinman, B.A. Frankcombe, L.M., Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., England, M.H., Response to Comment on “Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures"Science, 350, 1326, 2015. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Two Degrees of FreedomScientific American, 313, 12, 2015. [altmetric]

    Lindeman, K.C., Dame, L.E., Avenarius, C.B., Horton, B.P., Donnelly, J.P., Corbett, D.R., Kemp, A.C., Lane, P., Mann, M.E., and Peltier, W.R., Science needs for sea-level adaptation planning: comparisons among three U.S. Atlantic coast regionsCoastal Management, 43, 555-574, 2015. [altmetric]

    Reed, A.J., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Lin, N., Horton, B., Kemp, A.C., Donnelly, J.P., Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic eraProc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 112, 12610-12615, 2015. [altmetric]

    Frankcombe, L.M., England, M.H., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Separating internal variability from the externally forced climate responseJ. Climate, 28, 8184-8202, 2015. [altmetric]

    Cowtan, K., Hausfather, Z., Hawkins, E., Jacobs, P., Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., Steinman, B.A., Stolpe, M.B., Way, R.G., Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperaturesGeophys. Res. Lett. 42, 6526–6534, doi:10.1002/2015GL064888, 2015. [altmetric]

    Reed, A.J., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Titley, D.W., An analysis of long-term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 modelsJ. Geophys. Res. 120, 7506-7519, doi:10.1002/2015JD023357, 2015. [altmetric]

    Oreskes, N., Carlat, D., Mann, M.E., Thacker, P.D., vom Saal, F.S., Why Disclosure MattersEnvironmental Science & Technology, 49, 7527-7528, 2015. [altmetric]

    Halpern, M., Mann, M., Transparency Versus Harassment (editorial), Science, 479, 348, 2015. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Gleick, P.H., Climate Change and California Drought in the 21st CenturyProc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 112, 3858-3859, 2015. [altmetric]

    Rahmstorf, S., Box, J., Feulner, G., Mann, M.E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., Schaffernicht, E. Exceptional 20th-Century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturningNature Climate Change, 5, 475–480, 2015. [altmetric]

    Ross, A.C., Najjar, R.G., Li, M., Mann, M.E., Ford, S.E., Katz, B., Influences on decadal-scale variations of salinity in a coastal plain estuaryEstuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 157, 79-92, 2015. [altmetric]

    Steinman, B.A., Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperaturesScience, 347, 998-991, 2015. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., The Serengeti strategy: How special interests try to intimidate scientists, and how best to fight backBulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 71, 33-45, 2015. [altmetric]

    Paaijmans, K.P., Blanford, J.I., Crane, R.G., Mann, M.E., Ning, L., Schreiber, K.V., Thomas M.B.,Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmissionClimatic Change, 125, 479-488, 2014. [altmetric]

    Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Missing tree rings and the AD 774-775 radiocarbon eventNature Climate Change, 4, 648-649, 2014. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., On Forced Temperature Changes, Internal Variability and the AMOGeophys. Res. Lett. (“Frontier” article), 41, 3211-3219, doi:10.1002/2014GL059233, 2014. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Singh, R., Wagener, T., Crane, R., Mann, M.E., Ning, L., A vulnerability driven approach to identify adverse climate and land use change combinations for critical hydrologic indicator thresholds – Application to a watershed in Pennsylvania, USAWat. Res. Res., 50, 3409-3427, doi:10.1002/2013WR014988, 2014. [altmetric]

    Steinman, B.A., Abbott, M.B., Mann, M.E., Ortiz, J.D., Feng, S., Pompeani, D.P., Stansell, N.D., Anderson, L., Finney, B.P., Bird, B.W., Ocean-atmosphere forcing of centennial hydroclimate variability in the Pacific NorthwestGeophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2553-2560, doi:10.1002/2014GL059499, 2014. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., False Hope: The rate of global temperature rise may have hit a plateau, but a climate crisis still looms in the near futureScientific American, 310, 78-81, 2014.

    Schmidt, G.A., Annan, J.D., Bartlein, P.J., Cook, B.I., Guilyardi, E., Hargreaves, J.C., Harrison, S.P., Kageyama, M., LeGrande, A.N., Konecky, B., Lovejoy, S., Mann, M.E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Thompson, D., Timmermann, A., Tremblay, L.-B., Yiou, P., Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5Climate of the Past, 10, 221-250, 2014. [altmetric]

    Sriver, R.L., Timmermann, A., Mann, M.E., Keller, K., Goosse, H., Improved representation of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics in an intermediate complexity climate modelJ. Climate, 27, 168-187, 2014. 

    Kozar, M.E., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Evans, J.L., Long-term Variations of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from a Coupled Model Simulation of the Last MillenniumJ. Geophys. Res., 118, 13383-13392, doi:10.1002/2013JD020380, 2013. [altmetric]

    Lewandowsky, S., Mann, M.E., Bauld, L., Hastings, G., Loftus, E.F., The Subterranean War on ScienceThe Observer (Association for Psychological Science), 26, 9, 2013. [External Link]

    Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Schurer, A., Tett, S.F.B., Fuentes, J.D., Discrepancies between the modeled and proxy-reconstructed response to volcanic forcing over the past millennium: Implications and possible mechanismsJ. Geophys. Res. 118, 7617-7627, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50609, 2013. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Schurer, A., Hegerl, G., Mann, M.E., Tett, S.F.B., Separating forced from chaotic climate variability over the past millenniumJ. Climate, 26, 6954-6973, 2013. [altmetric]

    Rutherford, S.D., Mann, M.E., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Comment on: "Erroneous Model Field Representations in Multiple Pseudoproxy Studies: Corrections and Implications" by Jason E. Smerdon, Alexey Kaplan and Daniel E. AmrheinJ. Climate, 26, 3482-3484, 2013. [altmetric]

    Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K.M., Mann, M.E., Wittenberg, A.T., Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST variability over the Past Millennium. Part 2: Reconstructions and UncertaintiesJ. Climate, 26, 2329-2352, 2013. [altmetric]

    Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K.M., Mann, M.E., Wittenberg, A.T., Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST variability over the Past Millennium. Part 1: Methodology and ValidationJ. Climate, 26, 2302-2328, 2013. [altmetric]

    Feng, S., Hu, Q., Wu, Q., Mann, M.E., A Gridded Reconstruction of Warm Season Precipitation for Asia Spanning the Past Half MillenniumJ. Climate, 26, 2192-2204, 2013. [altmetric]

    Blanford J.I., Blanford S., Crane R.G., Mann, M.E., Paaijmans K.P., Schreiber, K.V., Thomas, M.B., Implications of temperature variation for malaria parasite development across Africa, Scientific Reports, 3, 1300, doi:10.1038/srep01300, 2013. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Fuentes, J.D., Rutherford, S. Reply to "Tree-Rings and Volcanic Cooling"Nature Geoscience, 5, 837-838, 2012. [Supplementary Figure & Caption] [altmetric]

    Goosse, H., Crespin, E., Dubinkina, S., Loutre, M., Mann, M.E., Renssen, H., Sallaz-Damaz, Y., Shindell, D.,The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the "Medieval Climate Anomaly"Climate Dynamics, 39, 2847-2866, 2012. [altmetric]

    Kozar, M.E., Mann, M.E., Camargo, S.J., Kossin, J.P., Evans, J.L., Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone countsJ. Geophys. Res., 117, D18103, doi:10.1029/2011JD017170, 2012. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Ning, L., Mann, M.E., Crane, R., Wagener, T., Najjar, R.G., Singh, R., Probabilistic Projections of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United StatesJ. Climate, 25, 5273-5291, 2012. 

    Steinman, B.A., Abbott, M.B., Mann, M.E., Stansell, N.D., Finney, B.P, 1500 year quantitative reconstruction of winter precipitation in the Pacific NorthwestProc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 109, 11619-11623, 2012. [altmetric]

    Fan, F., Mann, M.E., Lee., S, Evans, J.L., Future Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon: An Analysis of the CMIP3 Multi-Model ProjectionsJ. Climate, 25, 3909-3928, 2012. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Fuentes, J.D., Rutherford, S., Underestimation of Volcanic Cooling in Tree-Ring Based Reconstructions of Hemispheric TemperaturesNature Geoscience, 5, 202-205, 2012. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Goosse, H., Crespin, E., Dubinkina, S., Loutre, M., Mann, M.E., Renssen, H., Sallaz-Damaz, Y., Shindell, D.,The medieval climate anomaly in Europe: Comparison of the summer and annual mean signals in two reconstructions and in simulations with data assimilationGlobal and Planetary Change, 84-85, 35-47, 2012. [altmetric]

    Ning, L., Mann, M.E., Crane, R., Wagener, T., Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States - Validation of Precipitation Downscaling During the Historical EraJ. Climate, 25, 509-526, 2012. [altmetric]

    Singh, R., Wagener, T., Van Werkhoven, K., Mann, M.E., Crane, R., A trading-space-for-time approach to probabilistic continuous streamflow predictions in a changing climate — accounting for changing watershed behaviorHydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1-13, 2011. 

    Diaz, H.F., Trigo, R., Hughes, M.K., Mann, M.E., Xoplaki, E., Barriopedro, D., Spatial and temporal characteristics of climate in medieval times revisited,Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92, 1487-1500 2011. [altmetric]

    Katz, B., Najjar, R.G., Cronin, T., Rayburn, J., Mann, M.E., Constraints on Lake Agassiz discharge through the late-glacial Champlain Sea (St. Lawrence Lowlands, Canada) using salinity proxies and an estuarine circulation modelQuat. Sci. Rev., 30, 3248-3257, 2011.

    Kemp, A.C., Horton, B.P., Donnelly, J.P., Mann, M.E., Vermeer, M., Rahmstorf, S., Reply to Grinsted et al.: Estimating land subsidence in North CarolinaProc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 108, E783, 2011.

    Mann, M.E., On long range dependence in global surface temperature series: An editorial commentClimatic Change, 107, 267-276, 2011. [altmetric]

    Kemp, A.C., Horton, B.P., Donnelly, J.P., Mann, M.E., Vermeer, M., Rahmstorf, S., Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millenniaProc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 108, 11017-11022, 2011. [altmetric]

    Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S.D., A comment on "A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?" by McShane and WynerAnn. Appl. Stat., 5, 65-70, 2011. [supplement

    Bowman, T.E., Maibach, E., Mann, M.E., Somerville, R.C.J., Seltser, B.J., Fischhoff, B., Gardiner, S.M., Gould, R.J., Leiserowitz, A., Yohe, G., Time to Take Action on Climate CommunicationScience, 330, 1044, 2010. [altmetric]

    Sriver, R.L., Goes, M., Mann, M.E., Keller, K., Climate response to tropical cyclone-induced ocean mixing in an Earth system model of intermediate complexityJ. Geophys. Res., 115, C10042, doi:10.1029/2010JC006106, 2010. [altmetric]

    Fan, F., Mann, M.E., Lee., S, Evans, J.L., Observed and Modeled Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon over the Historical PeriodJ. Climate, 23, 5193-5205, 2010. [altmetric]

    Rutherford, S.D, Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Wahl, E.R., Comment on: "A surrogate ensemble study of climate reconstruction methods: Stochasticity and robustness" by Christiansen, Schmith and Thejll.J. Climate, 23, 2832-2838, 2010. 

    Foster, G., Annan, J.D., Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Mullan, B., Renwick, J., Salinger, J., Schmidt, G.A., Trenberth, K.E., Comment on "Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature" by J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter.J. Geophys. Res., 115, D09110, doi:10.1029/2009JD012960, 2010. [altmetric]

    Goosse, H., Crespin, E., de Montety, A., Mann, M.E., Renssen, H., Timmermann, A., Reconstructing surface temperature changes over the past 600 years using climate model simulations with data assimilationJ. Geophys. Res., 115, D09108, doi:10.1029/2009JD012737, 2010.

    Mann, M.E., Zhang, Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Shindell, D., Ammann, C., Faluvegi, G., Ni, F., Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 326, 1256-1260, 2009. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Woodruff, J.D., Donnelly, J.P., Zhang, Z., Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 yearsNature, 460, 880-883, 2009. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Crespin, E., Goosse, H., Fichefet, T., Mann, M.E., The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilationClimate of the Past, 5, 389-405, 2009. 

    Bowman, T.E., Maibach, E., Mann, M.E., Moser, S.C., Somerville, R.C.J., Creating a common climate languageScience, 324, 37, 2009. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Do Global Warming and Climate Change Represent a Serious Threat to our Welfare and EnvironmentSocial Philosophy and Policy, 26, 389-405, 2009. 

    Malone, R.W., Meek, D.W., Hatfield, J.L., Mann, M.E., Jaquis, R.J., Ma, L., Quasi-Biennial Corn Yield Cycles in IowaAgricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 1087-1094, 2009.

    Fan, F., Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Understanding Changes in the Asian Summer Monsoon over the Past Millennium: Insights From a Long-Term Coupled Model SimulationJ. Climate, 22, 1736-1748, 2009. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A., Miller, S.K., LeGrande, A.N., Potential biases in inferring Holocene temperature trends from long-term borehole informationGeophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05708, doi:10.1029/2008GL036354, 2009. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Defining Dangerous Anthropogenic InterferenceProc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, 4065-4066, 2009. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Reply to McIntyre and McKitrick: Proxy-based temperature reconstructions are robustProc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, E11, 2009. [altmetric]

    Steig, E.J., Schneider, D.P. Rutherford, S.D., Mann, M.E., Comiso, J.C., Shindell, D.T., Warming of the Antarctic ice sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical YearNature, 1457, 459-463, 2009.
    [Corrigendum (Steig et al, 2009)] [altmetric]

    Jones, P.D., Briffa, K.R., Osborn, T.J., Lough, J.M., van Ommen, T.D., Vinther, B.M., Luterbacher, J., Wahl, E.R., Zwiers, F.W., Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A., Ammann, C.M., Buckley, B.M., Cobb, K.M., Esper, J., Goosse, H., Graham, N., Jansen, E., Kiefer, T, Kull, C., Kuttel, M., Mosely-Thompson, E., Overpeck, J.T., Riedwyl, N., Schulz, M., Tudhope, A.W., Villalba, R., Wanner, H., Wolff, E., Xoplaki, E., High-resolution paleoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospectsHolocene, 19, 3-49, 2009. [altmetric]

    Wei, F., Xie, Y., Mann, M.E. Probabilistic trend of anomalous summer rainfall in Beijing: Role of interdecadal variabilityJ. Geophys. Res., 113, D20106, doi:10.1029/2008JD010111, 2008. 

    Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Reply to: "Comment on 'Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods', by Mann et al."J. Geophys. Res., 113, D18107, doi:10.1029/2008JD009964, 2008. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Zhang, Z., Hughes, M.K., Bradley, R.S., Miller, S.K., Rutherford, S., Proxy-Based Reconstructions of Hemispheric and Global Surface Temperature Variations over the Past Two Millennia, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 105, 13252-13257, 2008. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Smoothing of Climate Time Series RevisitedGeophys. Res. Lett., 35, L16708, doi:10.1029/2008GL034716, 2008. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Foster, G., Annan, J.D., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Comment on "Heat Capacity, Time Constant, and Sensitivity of Earth's Climate System" by S. E. SchwartzJ. Geophys. Res., 113, L22707, D15102, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009373, 2008. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Sabbatelli, T.A., Neu, U., Evidence for a Modest Undercount Bias in Early Historical Atlantic Tropical Cyclone CountsGeophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22707, doi:10.1029/2007GL031781, 2007. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Delworth, T.L., Zhang, R., Mann, M.E., Decadal to Centennial Variability of the Atlantic from Observations and Models, in Past and Future Changes of the Oceans Meridional Overturning Circulation: Mechanisms and Impacts, A. Schmittner, J. C. H. Chiang, and S.R. Hemming (eds), Geophysical Monograph Series 173, American Geophysical Union, 131-148, 2007. 

    Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Reply to Comments on "Testing the Fidelity of Methods Used in Proxy-based Reconstructions of Past Climate" by Smerdon and KaplanJ. Climate, 20, 5671-5674, 2007. [altmetric]

    Sabbatelli, T.A., Mann, M.E., The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence RatesJ. Geophys. Res., 112, D17114, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008385, 2007. [supplement

    Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Holland, G.J., Webster, P.J., Atlantic Tropical Cyclones RevisitedEos, 88, 36, p. 349-350, 2007. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Reply to Comments on "Testing the Fidelity of Methods Used in Proxy-based Reconstructions of Past Climate" by Zorita et alJ. Climate, 20, 3699-3703, 2007. [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Robustness of Proxy-Based Climate Field Reconstruction MethodsJ. Geophys. Res., 112, D12109, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008272, 2007. [supplement] [altmetric]

    Mann, M.E., Climate Over the Past Two MillenniaAnnual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 35, 111-136, 2007. 
    [electronic reprint in html or pdf format (personal use only)]

    Mann, M.E., Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., Kiefer, T., Kull, C., Wanner, H., Past Millennia Climate Variability,Eos, 87, 526-527, 2006.

    Goosse, H., Arzel, O., Luterbacher, J., Mann, M.E., Renssen, H., Riedwyl, N., Timmermann, A., Xoplaki, E., Wanner, H., The origin of the European "Medieval Warm Period"Climate of the Past, 2, 99-113, 2006.

    Goosse, H., Renssen, H., Timmermann, A., Bradley, R.S., Mann, M.E., Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millenniumClimate Dynamics, 27, 165-184, 2006.

    Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate ChangeEos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. [supplement]

    Mann, M.E., Climate Changes Over the Past Millennium: Relationships with Mediterranean ClimatesNuovo Cimento C, 29, 73-80, 2006.

    Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Testing the Fidelity of Methods Used in Proxy-based Reconstructions of Past ClimateJournal of Climate, 18, 4097-4107, 2005.

    Knight, J.R., Allan, R.J., Folland, C.K., Vellinga, M., Mann, M.E., A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climateGeophysical Research Letters, 32, L20708, doi:10.1029/2005GL024233, 2005.

    Cronin, T.M., Thunell, R., Dwyer, G.S., Saenger, C., Mann, M.E., Vann, C., Seal, R.R. II, Multiproxy evidence of Holocene climate variability from estuarine sediments, eastern North AmericaPaleoceanography, 20, PA4006, doi: 10.1029/2005PA001145, 2005.

    Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Osborn, T.J., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Methodology, Predictor Network, Target Season and Target DomainJournal of Climate, 18, 2308-2329, 2005.

    Cook, B.I., Smith, T.M., Mann, M.E., The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over EuropeGlobal Change Biology, 11, 919-926, 2005.

    Frauenfeld, O.W., Davis, R.E., Mann, M.E., A Distinctly Interdecadal Signal of Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere InteractionJournal of Climate, 18, 1709-1718, 2005.

    Mann, M.E., Cane, M.A., Zebiak, S.E., Clement, A., Volcanic and Solar Forcing of the Tropical Pacific Over the Past 1000 YearsJournal of Climate, 18, 447-456, 2005.

    D'Arrigo, R.D., Cook, E.R., Wilson, R.J., Allan, R., Mann, M.E., On the Variability of ENSO Over the Past Six Centuries, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L03711, doi: 10.1029/2004GL022055, 2005.

    Zhang, Z., Mann, M.E., Coupled Patterns of Spatiotemporal Variability in Northern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure and Conterminous U.S. DroughtJournal of Geophysical Research, 110, D03108, doi: 10.1029/2004JD004896, 2005.

    Schmidt, G.A., Shindell, D.T., Miller, R.L., Mann, M.E., Rind, D., General Circulation Modeling of Holocene climate variabilityQuaternary Science Reviews, 23, 2167-2181, 2004.

    Cook, B.I., Mann, M.E., D'Odorico, P., Smith, T.M., Statistical Simulation of the Influence of the NAO on European Winter Surface Temperatures: Applications to Phenological Modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D16106, doi: 10.1029/2003JD004305, 2004.

    Zhang, Z., Mann, M.E., Cook, E.R., Alternative methods of proxy-based climate field reconstruction: application to summer drought over the conterminous United States back to AD 1700 from tree-ring data, The Holocene, 14, 502-516, 2004.

    Andronova, N.G., Schlesinger, M.E., Mann, M.E., Are Reconstructed Pre-Instrumental Hemispheric Temperatures Consistent With Instrumental Hemispheric Temperatures?, Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L12202, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019658, 2004.

    Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Climate Over Past Millennia, Reviews of Geophysics, 42, RG2002, doi: 10.1029/2003RG000143, 2004.

    Mann, M.E., On Smoothing Potentially Non-Stationary Climate Time Series, Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L07214, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019569, 2004. [supplement]

    Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Reply to comment on "Ground vs. surface air temperature trends: Implications for borehole surface temperature reconstructions" by D. Chapman et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L07206, doi: 10.1029/2003GL0119144, 2004.

    L'Heureux, M.L., Mann, M.E., Cook B.I., Gleason, B.E., Vose, R.S., Atmospheric Circulation Influences on Seasonal Precipitation Patterns in Alaska during the latter 20th Century, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D06106, doi:10.1029/2003JD003845, 2004.

    Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Faluvegi, G., Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D05104, doi: 10.1029/2003JD004151, 2004.

    Adams, J.B., Mann, M.E., D'Hondt, S., The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction: Modeling carbon flux and ecological responsePaleoceanography, 19, PA1002, doi: 10.1029/2002PA000849, 2004.

    Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Miller, R.L., Mann, M.E., Volcanic and Solar Forcing of Climate Change during the Preindustrial EraJournal of Climate, 16, 4094-4107, 2003.

    Adams, J.B., Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Proxy Evidence for an El Nino-like Response to Volcanic ForcingNature, 426, 274-278, 2003.

    Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Oppenheimer, M., Osborn, T.J., Overpeck, J. T., Rutherford, S., Trenberth, K.E., Wigley, T.M.L., Response to Comment on 'On Past Temperatures and Anomalous Late 20th Century Warmth'Eos, 84, 473, 2003.

    Mann, M.E., Paleoclimate, Global Change, and the Future (book review)Eos, 84, 419-420, 2003.

    Mann, M.E., Jones, P.D., Global surface temperature over the past two millenniaGeophysical Research Letters, 30 (15), 1820, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017814, 2003.

    Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Oppenheimer, M., Osborn, T.J., Overpeck, J.T., Rutherford, S., Trenberth, K.E., Wigley, T.M.L., On Past Temperatures and Anomalous Late 20th Century Warmth, Eos, 84, 256-258, 2003.

    Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A., Ground vs. Surface Air Temperature Trends: Implications for Borehole Surface Temperature Reconstructions,Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (12), 1607, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017170, 2003.

    Andrews, J.T., Hardadottir, J., Stoner, J.S., Mann, M.E., Kristjansdottir, G.B., Koc, N., Decadal to Millennial-scale periodicities in North Iceland shelf sediments over the last 12,000 cal yrs: long-term North Atlantic oceanographic variability and Solar ForcingEarth and Planetary Science Letters, 210, 453-465, 2003.

    D'Arrigo, R.D., Cook, E.R., Mann, M.E., Jacoby, G.C., Tree-ring reconstructions of temperature and sea-level pressure variability associated with the warm-season Arctic Oscillation since AD 1650Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (11), 1549, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017250, 2003.

    Covey, C., AchutaRao, K.M., Cubasch, U., Jones, P.D., Lambert, S.J., Mann, M.E., Philips, T.J., Taylor, K.E., An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison ProjectGlobal and Planetary Change, 37, 103-133, 2003.

    Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Keimig, F.T., Optimal Surface Temperature Reconstructions using Terrestrial Borehole DataJournal of Geophysical Research, 108 (D7), 4203, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002532, 2003.
    [Correction (Rutherford and Mann, 2004)]

    Braganza, K., Karoly, D.J., Hirst, A.C., Mann, M.E., Stott, P, Stouffer, R.J., Tett, S.F.B., Simple indices of global climate variability and change: Part I - variability and correlation structureClimate Dynamics, 20, 491-502, 2003.

    Gerber, S., Joos, F., Bruegger, P.P., Stocker, T.F., Mann, M.E., Sitch, S., Constraining Temperature Variations over the last Millennium by Comparing Simulated and Observed Atmospheric CO2Climate Dynamics, 20, 281-299, 2003.

    Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Delworth, T.L., Stouffer, R., Climate Field Reconstruction Under Stationary and Nonstationary ForcingJournal of Climate, 16, 462-479, 2003.

    Druckenbrod, D., Mann, M.E., Stahle, D.W., Cleaveland, M.K., Therrell, M.D., Shugart, H.H., Late 18th Century Precipitation Reconstructions from James Madison's Montpelier PlantationBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84, 57-71, 2003.

    Ribera, P., Mann, M.E., ENSO related variability in the Southern Hemisphere, 1948-2000Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (1), 1006, doi: 10.1029/2002GL015818, 2003.

    Ghil, M., Allen, M.R., Dettinger, M.D., Ide, K., Kondrashov, D., Mann, M.E., Robertson, A.W., Tian, Y., Varadi, F., Yiou, P., Advanced Spectral Methods for Climatic Time SeriesReviews of Geophysics, 40 (1), 1003, doi: 10.1029/2000RG000092, 2002.

    Mann, M.E. Large-Scale Climate Variability and Connections With the Middle East in Past Centuries, Climatic Change, 55, 287-314, 2002.

    Mann, M.E., The Value of Multiple ProxiesScience, 297, 1481-1482, 2002.

    Cook, E.R., D'Arrigo, R.D., Mann, M.E., A Well-Verified, Multi-Proxy Reconstruction of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Since AD 1400J. Climate, 15, 1754-1765, 2002.

    Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Climate Reconstruction Using 'Pseudoproxies'Geophysical Research Letters, 29 (10), 1501, doi: 10.1029/2001GL014554, 2002.

    Ribera, P., Mann, M.E., Interannual variability in the NCEP Reanalysis 1948-1999Geophysical Research Letters, 29 (10), 1494, doi: 10.1029/2001GL013905, 2002.

    Mann, M.E., Hughes, M.K., Tree-Ring Chronologies and Climate VariabilityScience, 296, 848, 2002.

    Waple, A., Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Long-term Patterns of Solar Irradiance Forcing in Model Experiments and Proxy-based Surface Temperature ReconstructionsClimate Dynamics, 18, 563-578, 2002.

    Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Cole, J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, J.M., Overpeck, J.T., von Storch, H., Wanner, H., Weber, S.L., Widmann, M., Reconstructing the Climate of the Late HoloceneEos, 82, 553, 2001.

    Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E.,Mann, M.E. Medieval Climatic OptimumEncylopedia of Global Environmental Change,John Wiley and Sons Ltd, London, UK, pp. 514-516, 2001.

    Mann, M.E. Little Ice AgeEncylopedia of Global Environmental Change, John Wiley and Sons Ltd, London, UK, pp. 504-509, 2001.

    Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Rind, D., Waple, A., Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder MinimumScience, 7, 2149-2152, 2001.

    Mann, M.E., Large-scale Temperature Patterns in Past Centuries: Implications for North American Climate ChangeHuman and Ecological Risk Assessment, 7, 1247-1254, 2001.

    Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Scope of Medieval WarmingScience, 292, 2011-2012, 2001.

    Mann, M.E. Climate During the Past MillenniumWeather (invited contribution), 56, 91-101, 2001.

    Folland, C.K., Karl, T.R., Christy, J.R., Clarke, R. A., Gruza, G.V., Jouzel, J., Mann, M.E., Oerlemans, J., Salinger, M.J., Wang, S.-W., Observed Climate Variability and Change, in 2001 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 99-181, 2001. [External Link]

    Cullen, H., D'Arrigo, R., Cook, E., and Mann, M.E., Multiproxy-based reconstructions of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the past three centuriesPaleoceanography, 15, 27-39, 2001.

    Mann, M.E., Gille, E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Overpeck, J.T., Keimig, F.T., Gross, W., Global Temperature Patterns in Past Centuries: An interactive presentation, Earth Interactions, 4-4, 1-29, 2000. [External Link]

    Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Mann, M.E., Comments on 'Detection and Attribution of Recent Climate Change: A Status Report', Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81, 2987-2990, 2000.

    Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Long-term variability in the El Nino Southern Oscillation and associated teleconnections, Diaz, H.F. and Markgraf, V. (eds) El Nino and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Variability and its Impacts on Natural Ecosystems and Society, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 357-412, 2000.

    Delworth, T.L., and Mann, M.E., Observed and Simulated Multidecadal Variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Climate Dynamics, 16, 661-676, 2000.

    Mann, M.E., Lessons For a New Millennium, Science, 289, 253-254, 2000.

    Rittenour, T., Brigham-Grette, J., Mann, M.E., El Nino-like Climate Teleconnections in North America During the Late Pleistocene: Insights From a New England Glacial Varve ChronologyScience, 288, 1039-1042, 2000.

    Park, J., Mann, M.E.Interannual Temperature Events and Shifts in Global Temperature: A Multiple Wavelet Correlation ApproachEarth Interactions, 4-001,1-36, 2000.

    Mann, M.E., Park, J, Oscillatory Spatiotemporal Signal Detection in Climate Studies: A Multiple-Taper Spectral Domain ApproachAdvances in Geophysics, 41, 1-131, 1999. (click here for version w/ color figures) [supplement]

    Jain, S., Lall, U., Mann, M.E., Seasonality and Interannual Variations of Variations of Northern Hemisphere Temperature: Equator-to-Pole Gradient and Land-Ocean ContrastJournal of Climate, 12, 1086-1100, 1999.

    Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K., Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and LimitationsGeophysical Research Letters, 26, 759-762, 1999. [supplement]

    Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K. and Jones, P.D., Global Temperature PatternsScience, 280, 2029-2030, 1998.

    Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K. Global-Scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing Over the Past Six CenturiesNature, 392, 779-787, 1998. 
    [Corrigendum (Mann, Bradley, and Hughes, 2004)] [supplement]

    Rajagopalan, B., Mann, M.E., and Lall, U., A Multivariate Frequency-Domain Approach to Long-Lead Climatic ForecastingWeather and Forecasting, 13, 58-74, 1998.

    Beniston, M., Pielke, R.A., Arpe, K., Keuler, K., Laprise, R., Mann, M.E., Rinke, A., Parker, D.E., Climate Modelers Meet in SwitzerlandEos, 78, 383, 1997.

    Mann, M.E., Park, J., Joint Spatio-Temporal Modes of Surface Temperature and Sea Level Pressure Variability in the Northern Hemisphere During the Last CenturyJournal of Climate, 9, 2137-2162, 1996.

    Mann, M.E., Lees. J., Robust Estimation of Background Noise and Signal Detection in Climatic Time SeriesClimatic Change, 33, 409-445, 1996. [supplement]

    Koch, D., Mann, M.E., Spatial and Temporal Variability of 7Be Surface ConcentrationsTellus, 48B, 387-396, 1996.

    Abarbanel, H., Lall, U., Moon, Y.I., Mann, M.E., Sangoyomi, T., Nonlinear dynamics and the Great Salt Lake: A Predictable Indicator of Regional ClimateEnergy, 21, 655-665, 1996.

    Mann, M.E., Park, J., Greenhouse Warming and Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Temperature: Model Versus ObservationsGeophysical Research Letters, 23, 1111-1114, 1996. [supplement]

    Mann, M.E., Park, J., Bradley, R.S., Global Interdecadal and Century-Scale Climate Oscillations During the Past Five CenturiesNature, 378, 266-270, 1995.

    Lall, U., Mann, M.E., The Great Salt Lake: A Barometer of Low-Frequency Climatic Variability, Water Resources Research, 31,2503-2515, 1995.

    Mann, M.E., Lall, U., Saltzman, B., Decadal-to-century scale climate variability: Insights into the Rise and Fall of the Great Salt LakeGeophysical Research Letters, 22, 937-940, 1995.

    Marshall, S., Mann, M.E., Oglesby, R., Saltzman, B., A comparison of the CCM1-simulated climates for pre-industrial and present-day C02 levels, Global and Planetary Change, 10, 163-180, 1995.

    Mann, M.E., Park, J., Global scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century time scalesJournal of Geophysical Research, 99, 25819-25833, 1994.

    Mann, M.E., Park, J., Spatial Correlations of Interdecadal Variation in Global Surface Temperatures, Geophysical Research Letters, 20, 1055-1058, 1993.

     

    David Spratt has been Climate Research Coordinator for the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration (Melbourne) since 2014. He was co-founder of the Climate Action Centre (2009-2012). Below are a few of the research papers he has published which have been relevant to our climate analysis processes. While we mostly agree with his climate research, there are some minor areas in which we at Job One disagree.

    WHAT LIES BENEATH: THE UNDERSTATEMENT OF EXISTENTIAL CLIMATE RISK Book Aug 2018.

    Disaster Alley: Climate change, conflict and risk Book, June 2017

    Antarctic Tipping Points for a Multi-metre Sea Level Rise Book, March 2017

    Unstoppable fury Article

    Climate 'code red Article

     

    Peter Carter was an expert reviewer for the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) fifth climate change assessment (AR5, 2014) and the IPCC’s 2018 Special Report on 1.5ºC. In 2018, he published Unprecedented Crime: Climate Science Denial and Game Changers for Survival, which he co-authored with Elizabeth Woodworth. He is published on climate change, biodiversity, and environmental health. Here is Peter Carter's the presented or published climate work:

    Ongoing 2020-21  review of the IPCC 6th Assessment  

    AGU  Dec 2020  Town Hall The greenhouse gas Earth emergency: The legacy of many — now unavoidable — Earth system and human system impacts

    AGU Dec 2020 Utilizing the IPCC for communicating both the full extent of the climate emergency and the required response 

    Expert reviewer IPCC  2018 1.5C Special Report 

    Expert reviewer of IPCC 2014 5th assessment 

    Encyclopedia of Sustainable Development Goals 2019 Environmental health assessment chapter 

    Handbook of Climate Change and Biodiversity 2018 Emergency Chapter

    Vienna (April 2017) From up-to-date climate and ocean evidence with updated UN emissions projections, the time is now for science to recommend an immediate massive effort on CO2. at the European Geoscience Union Assembly

    San Francisco (December 2016) - Climate Golden Age or Greenhouse Gas Dark Age? at the Annual Geophysical Union conference. 

    Denver, Colorado (September 2016) – The policy relevance of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration trends to 2016, at the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Science Conference

    Oxford, UK (September 2016) – An illustrated guide to the 1.5ºC and 2ºC policy target options, at the 1.5 Degrees: Meeting the Challenges of the Paris Agreement Conference  

    Vancouver (2015) – Environmental Health Risk Assessment to Correct Climate Change Policymaking Failure, at the 7th International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts and Responses

    San Francisco (2014) – Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change, at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Conference 

    Honolulu (2014) – Is committed ocean warming and acidification a planetary emergency? at 2014 Ocean Sciences Meeting 

    San Francisco (2013) – Is the world in a state of committed global climate change planetary emergency? at American Geophysical Union (AGU) Conference

    London (2013) – Radical climate change science for rapid radical emissions reductions, at Tyndall Centre's Radical Emissions Reduction Conference 

    Potsdam, Germany (2013) – Committed unavoidable global warming and Northern Hemisphere food security implications to 2100, at IMPACTS WORLD 2013: International Conference on Climate Change Effects (http://www.climate-impacts-2013.org/files/cwi_carter.pdf)

    Nairobi, Kenya (2013) – Committed Global Climate Change and African Food Security, at the First Africa Food Security and Adaptation Conference: Harnessing Ecosystem-based Approaches for Food Security and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa

    Vancouver (2013) – The compelling case in climate change science for an emergency upgrading of Arctic monitoring capacities, at Arctic Observing Summit

    Vienna (2013) – Is the world in a state of climate change planetary emergency? at European Geophysical Union Conference 

    Philippines (2012) – Unavoidable global warming commitment and its food security, impacts and risks, implications focused on South East Asia, at International Conference on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Food and Environmental Security 

    Seattle (2012) – Committed global climate change and food security: Linking the unavoidable lags between rapid emissions reduction for climate stabilization on crop yields using climate crop model projections, at 4th International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts and Responses (http://ijc.cgpublisher.com/product/pub.185/prod.180)

    Edmonton (2012) – Linking fossil fuel resource development with the environmental health risks of global climate change, particularly to the global south, for planning mitigation responses, at 8th International Symposium on Society and Resource Management 

     

    Other Job One for Humanity References in addition to what is found on our website pages and end notes

    Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, Feng He, Nathaniel A. Lifton, Zhengyu Liu, & Bette L. Otto-Bliesner. "Regional and global forcing of glacier retreat during the last deglaciation." Nature Communications, 5, no. 8059 (2015). doi: DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9059

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "Meridional Overturning Circulation." NOAA.gov. Last modified November 10, 2016. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/research/moc/namoc/

    Hansen, J., Sato, M., Hearty, P., Ruedy, R., Kelley, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., Russell, G., Tselioudis, G., Cao, J., Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., Tormey, B., Donovan, B., Kandiano, E., von Schuckmann, K., Kharecha, P., Legrande, A. N., Bauer, M., and Lo, K.-W. "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous.

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed., “Sea Level Change,” in Climate Change 2013 - The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY (2013): 1137–1216, doi:10.1017/ CBO9781107415324.026

    David Spratt. "Climate Reality Check." Breakthrough - National Centre for Climate Restoration. March 2016. http://media.wix.com/ugd/148cb0_4868352168ba49d89358a8a01bc5f80f.pdf

    NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. "U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters." NOAA.gov. 2016. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

    Hansen, James, et al. "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?" The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, no. 1 (2008): 217-231. DOI: 10.2174/1874282300802010217

    Hansen, J., et al.. "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous." Atmos.Chem.Phys.net, 16, (2015): doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, 2016.

    Nicholas Stern. "Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change." UK Government Web Archive. Last modified July 4, 2010. http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100407172811/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/stern_review_report.htm


    Gernot Wagner and Martin Weitzman, Climate Shock (Princeton University Press; April 2016).

    A. Dutton, A. E. Carlson, A. J. Long, G. A. Milne, P. U. Clark, R. Deconto, B. P. Horton, S. Rahmstorf, M. E. Raymo, "Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods." Science, July 10, 2015. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/349/6244/aaa4019

    Hansen, James, et al. "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?" The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, no. 1 (2008): 217-231. DOI: 10.2174/1874282300802010217

    “Scientific consensus: Earth's climate is warming." Climate.Nasa.Gov. Last modified January 24, 2017. http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
    90 Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller, eds., "Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change," (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1/

    M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

    Linda Doman. "EIA projects 48% increase in world energy consumption by 2040." U.S. Energy Information Administration. May 12, 2016. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26212

    Data from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. "The World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision." UN.org. July 29, 2015. http://www.un.org/en[…]”

    Hansen, James, et al. "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?" The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, no. 1 (2008): 217-231. DOI: 10.2174/1874282300802010217

    Tim Garrett. "The physics of long-run global economic growth." Utah.edu. 2014. http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~tgarrett/Economics/Economics.html

    Tim Garrett. "No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change." arXiv. January 9 2012. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1010.0428v3.pdf

    Tim Garrett, interview by Alex Smith, Radio Ecoshock, October 19, 2011, transcript. http://www.ecoshock.org/downloads/climate2010/ES_Garrett_101119_LoFi.mp3

    Hansen, James, et al. "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?" The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, no. 1 (2008): 217-231. DOI: 10.2174/1874282300802010217

    Veerasamy Sejian, Iqbal Hyder, T. Ezeji, J. Lakritz, Raghavendra Bhatta, J. P. Ravindra, Cadaba S. Prasad, Rattan Lal. "Global Warming: Role of Livestock." Climate Change Impact on Livestock: Adaptation and Mitigation. Springer India (2015): 141-169, doi: 10.1007/978-81-322-2265-1_10

    Books

    Basseches, Micheal. Dialectical thinking and Adult Development. Ablex Publishing, 1984.

    Beinhocker, Eric D. The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Economics and What it Means for Business in Society. Harvard Business Review Press, 2007.

    Berry, Thomas. The Great Work: Our Way Into the Future. Broadway Books, 2000.

    Bhaskar, Roy. Dialectic: The Pulse of Freedom. Verso, 1993.
    Carson, Rachel. Silent Spring. Houghton Mifflin, 1962.

    Craven, Greg. What's the Worst That Could Happen?: A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate. Perigee, 2009.

    Diamond, Jared. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Penguin Books, 2011.

    Esbjorn-Hargens, Sean and and Michael E. Zimmerman. Integral Ecology: Uniting Multiple Perspectives on the Natural World. Integral Books, 2009.

    Fisher, Len. Crashes, Crises, and Calamities: How We Can Use Science to Read the Early-Warning Signs. Basic Books, 2011.

    Funk, McKenzie. Windfall: The Booming Business of Global Warming. Penguin Press, 2014.

    Greer, John M. Dark Age in America: Climate Change, Cultural Collapse, and the Hard Future Ahead. New Society Publishers, 2016.

    Guzman, Andrew T. Overheated: The Human Cost of Climate Change. Oxford University Press, 2014.

    Hansen, James. Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity. Bloomsbury, 2009.

    Jantsch, Erich. Design for Evolution: Self-Organization and Planning in the Life of Human Systems. George Braziller, 1975.

    Klein, Naomi. This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate. Simon & Schuster, 2014.

    LaConte, Ellen. Life Rules: Nature's Blueprint for Surviving Economic & Environmental Collapse. New Society Publishers, 2012.

    Laske, Otto E. Measuring Hidden Dimensions Volume 2: Laske and Associates, 2011.

    Lovelock, James. The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning. Basic Books, 2009.

    Lynus, Mark. Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet. National Geographic, 2008.

    Macy, Joanna and Chris Johnstone. Active Hope: How to Face the Mess We're In Without Going Crazy. New World Library, 2012.

    Meadows, Donella H. Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Chelsea Green Publishing, 2008.

    Miller, Peter. "Cool It: The Climate Issue." National Geographic, November 2015. Print.

    Newitz, Annalee. Scatter, Adapt, and Remember: How Humans Will Survive a Mass Extinction. Doubleday, 2013.

    Rich, Nathaniel. Odds Against Tomorrow. Farrah, Strauss and Giroux, 2013

    Rifkin, Jeremy. The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power Is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World. St. Martin's Press, 2011.

    Sahtouris, Elisabet. EarthDance: Living Systems in Evolution. iUniverse, 2000.

    Salthe, Stanley N. Evolving Hierarchical Systems. Columbia University Press, 1985.

    Stewart, John. Evolution's Arrow: The Direction of Evolution and the Future of Humanity. Chapman Press, 2000.

    Tainter, Joseph A. The Collapse of Complex Societies (New Studies in Archaeology). Cambridge University Press, 1988.

    Taleb, Nassim N. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House, 2007.

    Wagner, Gernot, and Martin L. Weitzsman, Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet. Princeton University Press, 2015.”

    Wollersheim, Lawrence “Climageddon: The Global Warming Emergency and How to Survive It.” Apple Books.


    Other

    University of Cambridge. "Emissions from melting permafrost could cost $43 trillion." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921112731.htm

    Mason Inman. "Carbon is forever." Nature.com. November 20, 2008. http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0812/full/climate.2008.122.html

    Show.earth. "Keeling Curve Monthly CO2 Widget." ProOxygen. https://www.show.earth/kc-monthly-co2-widget

    "Jevons's paradox," When technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises because of increasing demand. From Wikipedia contributors, Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia.

    Rohdes, Robert A. "Variations in concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during the last 400 thousand years." Digital image. Wikimedia Commons. December 21, 2009. Accessed January 11, 2017. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.png.”

    Butler, Octavia E. Parable of the Sower. Four Walls Eight Windows, 1993. 

    Butler, Octavia E. Parable of the Talents. Seven Stories Press, 1998. 

    How Our Research, Review, and Analysis Processes are Unique 

    Using the principles of system theory and dialectical metasystemic thinking applied to the climate as a complex adaptive system, we review and then analyze current and past climate change research and public climate summaries for:

    1. errors, 

    2. omissions, 

    3. previously unrecognized positive or negative patterns in or between climate studies,

    4. unseen interconnections or consequence connections within and between climate studies, and 

    5. the unseen and hidden politicization, censorship, or the watering down of climate science by governmental agencies or other types of agents in public climate summary reports. 

    The problems in 1-5 above can significantly affect the validity of current and future statements or positions concerning climate consequence timetables or the frequency, severity, and scale of climate consequences. Using system theory and dialectical metasystemic thinking applied to the climate as a complex adaptive system, we also review research papers and public statements on the climate for:

    1. discernable or hidden biases, and

    2. undeclared financial or other conflicts of interest.

    The above two problems have recently become far more prevalent and have significantly underestimated negative climate consequences in public climate summaries and statements. Climate think tanks, individuals or groups operating as unknown fossil fuel lobbyists, and climate researchers funded by the fossil fuel-related industries have become the biggest offenders in this area. 

    Instead of our analyzing only one area of specialized climate study like the oceans, glaciers, ice and snow packs, planetary temperature history, water vapor, soils, forests, or greenhouse gas factors on temperature and the atmosphere, we analyze climate research on how it holistically applies and interrelates to all different areas within and between the climate's interrelated, interconnected, and interdependent systems and subsystems. 

    Using the tools of dialectical metasystemic thinking, we examine climate studies, their positions, and the related interactions of the climate system and subsystems through 28 different dialectical analysis perspectives and lenses. This allows us also to see, consider and value natural or human counteractions that may occur in response to the various primary and secondary consequences of climate change and global heating.

    After that extensive analysis, we make climate consequence severity and time frame predictions and remedial recommendations for the correct global fossil fuel reduction amounts to minimize human loss and suffering. Our final analysis, forecasts, and recommendations always include all needed adjustments to compensate for any problems, errors, omissions, underestimation, or politicization which we discover in current climate research or summaries. Click here to see the many errors, underestimation, and politicization we found in a major recognized source of global climate research and recommendations. 

    Unlike many other climate change think tanks, we do provide prioritized, critical-path, and deadline-driven solutions to the climate change emergency. These solutions are based upon accurate global fossil fuel reduction targets and avoiding the most dangerous climate tipping points and feedbacks deadlines that we currently face. 

    Job One for Humanity is currently helping expose the current intense politicization of climate science. This intense politicization of science by the media, governments, and even the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) acts to forward a gross underestimation of our actual and current climate consequences, timeframes, remedies, and condition.

    Unexpectedly, our independent climate change analysis has turned us into reluctant whistleblowers exposing how popular and politicized climate data has been distorted to serve the hidden interests of those who gain financially (or in other ways) from the ongoing global use of fossil fuels and hiding the real danger the public faces from the runaway global heating extinction emergency.

    Please note that our education materials, because of their serious and adult nature are not meant for adolescents under 16! 

    Important information about the validity and reliability of climate science found on the Job One For Humanity website

    The scientific method deals in probabilities, not certainties. This is especially true for making climate change predictions, given the complexity of factors that interact to create the climate. While scientific findings on climate change necessarily include uncertainty, the process of deciding public policy for dealing with climate change seeks a certainty that science cannot provide.

    In this situation, many concerned climate researchers and scientists urge the application of the precautionary principle. The precautionary principle asserts that policy-makers have a social responsibility to prevent public exposure to harm when scientific investigation has found a plausible risk — even though there can be no assertion of certain risk.

    Climate science has shown we are well beyond mere plausible risk with today's runaway global heating emergency. Instead, we are now at probable to highly-probable climate risk levels. Therefore the precautionary principle must be applied and should've been used many decades ago.

    Because climate science is constantly evolving and will always be some inherent level of uncertainty, we continually update our climate analysis and conclusions as new climate research becomes available. Wherever possible, we present predictive information in data ranges (such as carbon 425-450 ppm or temperature increases of 2 C to 2.7, etc.) Based on the climate data we are reviewing, we do our best to present what we understand to be the most accurate climate picture. However, as mentioned previously no one can establish 100% scientific certainty about any future phenomena. 

    Therefore, we also maintain a wise and continual openness to scientific falsification. We invite our website visitors to make up their minds about the usefulness and validity of our current climate analysis, conclusions, and remedial action steps. And, if you see any error in our climate data, presentation, or predictions, please present your criticism and documentation to [email protected] for review.

    We also acknowledge that due to the paucity of climate tipping point and climate feedback loop research, Job One for Humanity could be partially or even wholly wrong concerning any of its predictive climate analysis regarding future levels of average global temperature, atmospheric carbon, global warming consequences, global warming timetables, or correct global fossil fuel reduction targets.

    We fully appreciate that the climate is a very complex adaptive system. Many unknowns remain about how it and its subsystems react with each other and with other human, geological and ecological systems outside the climate. 

    If you wish to challenge the factualness of anything on our website, please see this page for how to do that.

     

    How to challenge the accuracy of anything you see on our website

    We openly invite anyone to challenge the correctness of our climate facts or analysis. If you have a legitimate, sincere and credible criticism and challenge, we do want to hear about it. We want to understand all credible challenges and review their science-based foundation, respond to it and if necessary, correct it on our website for the benefit of all.

    However, not all published climate research is the same. The climate and global heating facts and analysis found on our website are derived from the published papers and research of independent and unbiased climate scientists and researchers without any vested financial interests in the outcomes of their research. Much of this research is from the same individuals who also submit their original research to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other governments or organizations.

    We do not use fossil fuel industry funded think tank research unless we have independently vetted it for problems and errors. When we review climate research from government organizations like NOAA, we are particularly aware of the growing censorship and politically-motivated modification of their climate scientist's research.

    This censorship and politicization is particularly true in fossil fuel-producing or dependent countries. Numerous government agencies have repeatedly been caught watering down or hiding critical climate findings to not scare the public or upset national fossil fuel-dependent industries with strong lobbyists. We have become painfully aware that the worse runaway global heating gets, the worse the government censorship and polarization of the actual climate facts has become.

    We promote our climate data and analysis accuracy challenge regularly because we believe:

    1. We are engaged with other climate researchers, our readers, and our critics in a mutual search for the most accurate climate facts and the best runaway global heating extinction emergency solutions. We also have learned much from outside legitimate science-based criticisms over the years.

    2. We understand that our cutting-edge climate analysis and solutions will cause many individuals severe distress and emotional incongruence issues. This distress is because those individuals believed the watered-down versions of our climate condition and future coming from the heavily fossil fuel-influenced media, governments, and environmental groups. (The media, governments, and many environmental organizations are still blindly accepting and promoting  the seriously flawed climate summary reports of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control [IPCC.] Click here to read about the IPCC's many data reliability problems.)

    When those individuals read our new climate analysis and climate solutions, many experience very high stress. Initially, and quite naturally, many react with strident denial or an immediate attack on the validity of the stressful information. They do this in part to emotionally and psychologically reconcile the enormous difference between what they have been told about the climate emergency by popular media and "authorities," and what they are reading on our website. Unfortunately, the first reaction of many of these distressed individuals is often a vague and generalized attack on our whole website, an article of ours, or our organization.

    We understand that this is a natural reaction to shocking new climate data that, when accepted as accurate, will mean profound and significant changes to one's life plans and sense of safety and security. We truly understand how difficult it is to deal with this shock because we, too, have had to deal with the differences between what official governmental sources and what many of the climate "authorities" are telling us and what is actually in the uncensored climate science and unbiased analysis.

    In fact, most of our key staff has been through the Kubler Ross method for dealing with the painful shock of finally understanding the runaway global heating emergency is far, far worse than we are being told! (We strongly suggest this page for anyone dealing with climate shock, anger, denial, anxiety, etc.)

    Because we understand the value and importance of 1 and 2 above, we encourage any individual who is shocked or upset about our website's climate research, analysis, or solutions to challenge their accuracy using the criticism and challenge procedure listed below.

    This procedure allows us to respond to all legitimate and sincere criticisms and challenges instead of trying to deal with generalized name-calling, insults, or vague or generalized attacks on our articles, website, or organization, for which, there are no effective or proactive ways to respond.  On the other hand, legitimate and sincere criticisms help us forward our non-profit mission goals on educating the public about our current runaway global heating extinction emergency.

    To challenge anything you find on our website, please follow these simple guidelines:

    Step 1: Be specific about what you are challenging. Include the exact statement or statements that you doubt or find wrong.

    Being specific about some fact on our website you doubt or disagree with does not consist of generalized or vague statements or opinions like; "this is nonsense," "I do not like this fact or the way it makes me feel," "seems extreme," "scare tactics," "not enough documentation links," "this is BS," "people will give up hope because of this" or "who are your general authorities, etc."

    Instead, please tell us precisely what statement you doubt or find incorrect. We are interested in your legitimate science-grounded criticisms, not in your generalized or vague opinions without credible science to back them up.

    There is really nothing we can do to respond to vague, generalized opinions effectively. Still, with your submission of the precise statement(s) you disagree with and the climate science supporting your disagreement, we can engage in a proper academic dialogue that benefits both parties and eventually the general public.

    Step 2: Include the climate research or studies that proves your point and demonstrates what we have said is wrong. (Referencing the specific sections of your research study that are most applicable is also helpful.)

    We will carefully read the climate research study you send us and reply with either appropriate challenges to that study or results for other more current climate studies that support our position.

    Step 3: Send your challenges to [email protected]

     

    Our Advisory Board

    Our climate research history

    Job One For Humanity has been online since early 2008. Although there were earlier versions, the first complete version of the Job One For Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan was created in early 2011. It was designed to help address the lack of adequate progress in fixing climate change over the several preceding decades.

    Other Links

    Here is a link to our climate science glossary, which will be helpful in reading current climate science.

    See the Job One For Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan here.

    ced climate change is an existential risk to human civilisation: an adverse outcome that will either annihilate intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential, unless carbon emissions are rapidly reduced. Special precautions that go well beyond conventional risk management practice are required if the increased like...
    OVERVIEW Human-induced climate change is an existential risk to human civilisation: an adverse outcome that would either annihilate intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential. Special precautions that go well beyond conventional risk management practice are required if the “fat tails” — the increased likelihood of very l...
    OVERVIEW The first responsibility of a government is to safeguard the people and their future well-being. The ability to do this is threatened by climate change, whose accelerating impacts will also drive political instability and conflict, posing large negative consequences to human society which may never be undone. This report looks at climat...
    REPORT SUMMARY Climate policy making is based on the twin propositions that two degrees Celsius (2°C) of global warming is an appropriate policy target, and that there is a significant carbon budget and amount of “burnable carbon” allowable whilst meeting this target. This survey concludes that the evidence does not support either of these proposi...
    Unstoppable fury Article, Dec, 2009

    David Spratt's writings have appeared in "The Guardian, “The Age”, “Rolling Stone”, “Energiewende Magazin" and "The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists", amongst others, and online sites including Climate Spectator, Crikey, Renew Economy and New Matilda. He blogs at climatecodered.org on climate science, existential risk, IPCC reticence, the climate emergency and climate movement strategy and communications, and is regular public speaker.

    More climate published study references for our website materials

    We are in the process of adding scores of additional published papers. This list should be here by July 30, 2022. 

    Climate related reference books

    We are in the process of adding scores of climate related books we have referenced. This list should be here by July 30, 2022. 

     

    How Our Research, Review, and Analysis Processes is Unique 

    Using the principles of system theory and dialectical metasystemic thinking applied to the climate as a complex adaptive system, we review and then analyze the most recent climate change research for errors, omissions, and unrecognized patterns. These errors, omissions, and unrecognized patterns could significantly affect current and future climate consequences' frequency, severity, and scale. Using that same methodology, we also analyze the currently predicted climate timeframes or recommended climate remedies for errors, omissions, or unrecognized patterns. 

    We also review all research papers for discernable biases, undeclared financial conflicts of interest, or politicization, which has recently become far more prevalent and usually significantly underestimates negative climate consequences. 

    Instead of only analyzing only one niche of climate studies or of the climate system, we analyze current research for how it applies to all of the different areas within and between the climate's interrelated, interconnected, and interdependent systems and subsystems. Using the tools of dialectical metasystemic thinking, we examine climate studies and the related interactions of the climate system through 28 different dialectical analysis perspectives. 

    After that extensive analysis process is completed, we make our climate consequence severity and time frame predictions and recommendations for the correct global fossil fuel reduction amounts. Our final analysis, forecasts, and recommendations then include all adjustments needed to compensate for the errors, underestimation, or politicization we discover in that climate research or summaries. Click here to see the errors, underestimation, and politicization we found in the major source of climate research. 

    Unlike many other climate change think tanks, we do provide prioritized, critical-path, and deadline-driven solutions to the climate change emergency. These solutions are based on accurate global fossil fuel reduction targets and avoiding the most dangerous climate tipping points and feedbacks deadlines that we currently face. 

    Job One for Humanity also exposes the current intense politicization of climate science. This intense politicization of science by the media, governments, and the UN's IPCC acts to forward a gross underestimation of our actual and current climate consequences, timeframes, remedies, and condition. Unexpectedly, our independent climate change analysis has turned us into reluctant whistleblowers exposing how popular climate data has been distorted to serve the hidden interests of those who gain financially (or in other ways) from the ongoing global use of fossil fuels and hiding the real danger the public faces from the runaway global heating extinction emergency.

    Additional information about the validity and reliability of the climate science found on the Job One For Humanity website

    The scientific method deals in probabilities, not certainties. This is especially true for making climate change predictions, given the complexity of factors that interact to create the climate. While scientific findings on climate change necessarily include uncertainty, the process of deciding public policy for dealing with climate change seeks a certainty that science cannot provide.

    In this situation, many concerned climate researchers and scientists urge the application of the precautionary principle. The precautionary principle asserts that policy-makers have a social responsibility to prevent public exposure to harm when scientific investigation has found a plausible risk — even though there can be no assertion of certain risk.

    Climate science has shown we are well beyond mere plausible risk with today's runaway global heating emergency. Instead, we are now at probable to highly-probable climate risk levels. Therefore the precautionary principle must be applied and should've been used many decades ago.

    Because climate science is constantly evolving and will always be some inherent level of uncertainty, we continually update our climate analysis and conclusions as new climate research becomes available. Wherever possible, we present predictive information in data ranges (such as carbon 425-450 ppm or temperature increases of 2 C to 2.7, etc.) Based on the climate data we are reviewing, we do our best to present what we understand to be the most accurate climate picture. However, as mentioned previously no one can establish 100% scientific certainty about any future phenomena. 

    Therefore, we also maintain a wise and continual openness to scientific falsification. We invite our website visitors to make up their minds about the usefulness and validity of our current climate analysis, conclusions, and remedial action steps. And, if you see any error in our climate data, presentation, or predictions, please present your criticism and documentation to [email protected] for review.

    We also acknowledge that due to the paucity of climate tipping point and climate feedback loop research, Job One for Humanity could be partially or even wholly wrong concerning any of its predictive climate analysis regarding future levels of average global temperature, atmospheric carbon, global warming consequences, global warming timetables, or correct global fossil fuel reduction targets.

    We fully appreciate that the climate is a very complex adaptive system. Many unknowns remain about how it and its subsystems react with each other and with other human, geological and ecological systems outside the climate. 

    And finally, we always do our best to provide documentation links to any underlying climate research or analysis upon which we are basing a climate statement or position. 

    How to challenge the accuracy of anything you see on our website

    We openly invite anyone to challenge the correctness of our climate facts or analysis. If you have a legitimate, sincere and credible criticism and challenge, we do want to hear about it. We want to understand all credible challenges and review their science-based foundation, respond to it and if necessary, correct it on our website for the benefit of all.

    However, not all published climate research is the same. The climate and global heating facts and analysis found on our website are derived from the published papers and research of independent and unbiased climate scientists and researchers without any vested financial interests in the outcomes of their research. Much of this research is from the same individuals who also submit their original research to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other governments or organizations.

    We do not use fossil fuel industry funded think tank research unless we have independently vetted it for problems and errors. When we review climate research from government organizations like NOAA, we are particularly aware of the growing censorship and politically-motivated modification of their climate scientist's research.

    This censorship and politicization is particularly true in fossil fuel-producing or dependent countries. Numerous government agencies have repeatedly been caught watering down or hiding critical climate findings to not scare the public or upset national fossil fuel-dependent industries with strong lobbyists. We have become painfully aware that the worse runaway global heating gets, the worse the government censorship and polarization of the actual climate facts has become.

    We promote our climate data and analysis accuracy challenge regularly because we believe:

    1. We are engaged with other climate researchers, our readers, and our critics in a mutual search for the most accurate climate facts and the best runaway global heating extinction emergency solutions. We also have learned much from outside legitimate science-based criticisms over the years.

    2. We understand that our cutting-edge climate analysis and solutions will cause many individuals severe distress and emotional incongruence issues. This distress is because those individuals believed the watered-down versions of our climate condition and future coming from the heavily fossil fuel-influenced media, governments, and environmental groups. (The media, governments, and many environmental organizations are still blindly accepting and promoting  the seriously flawed climate summary reports of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control [IPCC.] Click here to read about the IPCC's many data reliability problems.)

    When those individuals read our new climate analysis and climate solutions, many experience very high stress. Initially, and quite naturally, many react with strident denial or an immediate attack on the validity of the stressful information. They do this in part to emotionally and psychologically reconcile the enormous difference between what they have been told about the climate emergency by popular media and "authorities," and what they are reading on our website. Unfortunately, the first reaction of many of these distressed individuals is often a vague and generalized attack on our whole website, an article of ours, or our organization.

    We understand that this is a natural reaction to shocking new climate data that, when accepted as accurate, will mean profound and significant changes to one's life plans and sense of safety and security. We truly understand how difficult it is to deal with this shock because we, too, have had to deal with the differences between what official governmental sources and what many of the climate "authorities" are telling us and what is actually in the uncensored climate science and unbiased analysis.

    In fact, most of our key staff has been through the Kubler Ross method for dealing with the painful shock of finally understanding the runaway global heating emergency is far, far worse than we are being told! (We strongly suggest this page for anyone dealing with climate shock, anger, denial, anxiety, etc.)

    Because we understand the value and importance of 1 and 2 above, we encourage any individual who is shocked or upset about our website's climate research, analysis, or solutions to challenge their accuracy using the criticism and challenge procedure listed below.

    This procedure allows us to respond to all legitimate and sincere criticisms and challenges instead of trying to deal with generalized name-calling, insults, or vague or generalized attacks on our articles, website, or organization, for which, there are no effective or proactive ways to respond.  On the other hand, legitimate and sincere criticisms help us forward our non-profit mission goals on educating the public about our current runaway global heating extinction emergency.

    To challenge anything you find on our website, please follow these simple guidelines:

    Step 1: Be specific about what you are challenging. Include the exact statement or statements that you doubt or find wrong.

    Being specific about some fact on our website you doubt or disagree with does not consist of generalized or vague statements or opinions like; "this is nonsense," "I do not like this fact or the way it makes me feel," "seems extreme," "scare tactics," "not enough documentation links," "this is BS," "people will give up hope because of this" or "who are your general authorities, etc."

    Instead, please tell us precisely what statement you doubt or find incorrect. We are interested in your legitimate science-grounded criticisms, not in your generalized or vague opinions without credible science to back them up.

    There is really nothing we can do to respond to vague, generalized opinions effectively. Still, with your submission of the precise statement(s) you disagree with and the climate science supporting your disagreement, we can engage in a proper academic dialogue that benefits both parties and eventually the general public.

    Step 2: Include the climate research or studies that proves your point and demonstrates what we have said is wrong. (Referencing the specific sections of your research study that are most applicable is also helpful.)

    We will carefully read the climate research study you send us and reply with either appropriate challenges to that study or results for other more current climate studies that support our position.

    Step 3: Send your challenges to [email protected]

    Our climate research history

    Job One For Humanity has been online since early 2008. Although there were earlier versions, the first complete version of the Job One For Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan was created in early 2011. It was designed to help address the lack of adequate progress in fixing climate change over the several preceding decades.

    Other Links

    Here is a link to our climate science glossary, which will be helpful in reading current climate science.

    See the Job One For Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan here.


  • What are our government's last chance, total extinction prevention actions

    Here is the tough news if all goes wrong and we miss our required fossil fuel reduction targets.

    We will unavoidably lose half of the human population by mid-century because of our 60 years of inaction or ineffective action on escalating global heating. We also still face near-total extinction if we fail to at least come close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets as soon as possible.

    The unavoidable loss of half of humanity by mid-century will produce widespread social, economic, and political chaos illustrated by the primary and secondary runaway global heating consequences described in painful detail on this page. We now have to deal with that reality. We also are currently doing so poorly in getting close to the 2025 targets, as a backup plan, on a national level, we need to prepare, adapt, and save and salvage whatever we can before it is too late to achieve a national-level of extinction resilience. 

    While our governments do everything they can to come as close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets as they can, simultaneously, they also must manage the runaway global heating-driven global decline process. Our governments can do this by as soon as is possible moving critical resources, technology, infrastructure, and at-risk populations into the global warming safer zones in a wise, equitable, and well-planned way.

    For our governments to effectively manage a global heating-driven collapse process and the global heating extinction emergency, we also will have to evolve truly effective new forms of global governance and cooperation quickly. This new global governance would need powers to verify, enforce or punish any nation that tried to game or cheat making the complex global changes required to save whatever portion of humanity and civilization we can for the future. 

    The following governmental-level resilience backup Plan B section describes the many actions that this new global governance must manage for a large portion of us to survive. The truly shocking and painful measures below are necessary because as things stand now, the odds are not good that we will get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets for quite a while. And, that means that the percentage of human survivors could be quite low.

    Unfortunately, only our national governments collaborating in tight coordination and alignment will be able to slow down runaway global heating enough to allow more people to survive, live longer, and more stably.

     

     

    This government-level resilience backup plan will prepare our nations and humanity for the worst possible outcomes. This way, we can still save and salvage whatever we can, while we can.

    At least, with this governmental level, resilience emergency backup Plan B successfully executed, more of humanity might be able to survive to re-populate the earth and preserve the best of our civilization. (If you still have any doubt that immediately beginning a government-driven and well-resourced Plan B backup plan against failure is necessary, please read this page.)

     

     

    The key runaway global heating government actions to save and salvage what we can while we still have time

    Global warming and these other poorly managed critical global challenges we currently face are most likely get a lot worse before they get better. While the actions below are more directly focused on the more immediate threat of the runaway global heating emergency, indirectly they too will also be helpful make things more survivable as our other critical global challenges continue to worsen.) 

    Action Step 1. Our governments must begin moving critical resources, technology, key infrastructure, and our younger at-risk populations into the global warming safer zones in a wise, equitable, and well-managed way. 

    For our long-term future and safety, essential resources, infrastructure, and crucial genetic and social diversity transfers will need to be executed at the same time as the other individual and business action steps (above) are being done. If things continue to go wrong as they are now, this government action step may turn out to be the most important action taken for the future of humanity and preserving civilization.

    Of all of the things to be done in this step, working out a migration plan for a fair and equitable migration lottery for all those younger individuals who have not already migrated will be the most challenging. This equitable migration management is critical because of the poor soils and shorter growing seasons above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south. Those areas of deficient soils and inadequate sunlight will not be able to grow enough food to feed our current human population. Because of this food production limitation, a fair lottery will be essential to the survival of humanity and civilization.

    Even before this lottery begins, our best scientists must determine how much food can be grown in those global warming-safe areas and what the maximum allowable population should be. These calculations are based on the total amount of food needed for that existing population while also maintaining adequate food reserves for unplanned and unexpected contingencies. Once they have those calculations, they can set initial and or adjust lottery migration allocations as conditions continually change. 

    Even before we set the final number of people that the remaining global warming safe zones will support, we must also mobilize the necessary agricultural resources to scale up food production. This scaling-up of the farming output will allow for the rapidly increasing migrating populations coming to those safer zones as well as to compensate for the generally more deficient soils and reduced sunlight found there.

    One more thing must be said about the migration lottery. It must be almost entirely for individuals under 30 or for individuals who are no older than 40 with young children. The older generations have failed horribly to pass on a livable legacy to the younger generations.

    The older generations have also lived far longer and more stable lives than the younger X, Y, and Z generations ever will. Therefore, generational justice demands that the most survivable remaining areas go to the younger generations.

    The lottery also cannot be hijacked or dominated by wealthy individuals, corporations, or nations. No special interest group must unjustly control or determine who is allowed to migrate based on privilege, position, wealth, politics, or any other national, cultural, or social categorization.

    If it is not a fair and just lottery, based upon what is essential for humanity and civilization to survive as well as an equitable representation of all of the categories mentioned above, then those who are left behind will fight to the death and eventually bring about the end of everything. This new lottery failure conflict will occur because those who feel the lottery was unfair will invade the safe zones. They will use whatever nuclear, biological, or chemical technology has been left behind in unsafe zones.

    Those with any decision power over who is allowed to migrate can not be allowed to use their political, military, or financial positions, advantages, or privileges to place themselves, their families, friends, allies, or business interests in any better position than any other individual citizen in the unsafe zones in these lotteries. 

    Any random lottery winner selection methodology must draw only from a pool of the most qualified climagees with the essential skills for the new world we will be living in. It must also have layers of independent safeguards to prevent fraud, bias, and any form of selection favoritism.

    This lottery must also for the following types of necessary diversity; genetic, national, racial, ethnic, religious, cultural, sexual orientation, gender identity, rural/urban/indigenous, and rich/poor. Communities most affected by global warming damage, which also have contributed the least to the climate change emergency should receive special consideration if justice is to be served.

    Having enough genetic diversity will be extremely important because most of humanity by mid-century will eventually die. This will occur as we approach the final global warming extinction tipping point of carbon 600 ppm. 

    If the lottery selection for migration to the global warming safer zones is made justly and fairly, it will be viewed as credible and has the best chance to work. 

    There are many good reasons for executing this last chance to save humanity and civilization migration, lottery, and infrastructure transfer backup plan simultaneously with the other action steps described at the top of this page. Here are just a few reminders:

    First, we are fighting for the very survival of humanity over the next 30 to 50+ years. Most if not all of humanity and civilization will end if we fail to slow and lessen global warming enough not to cross carbon 600 ppm and, we fail to move our critical infrastructure and essential populations to the far north or the far south in time. 

    Secondly, Our fossil fuel "bill of consequences" has come due, and there's no way to escape it. We now have to deal with the horrible accumulated consequences of the fossil fuel carbon pollution of our atmosphere for the last 200 years (since the industrial revolution began. ) Additionally, we also have to deal with the extra accumulating consequences from fossil fuel burning over the next 30-50+ years where we will undoubtedly reach the carbon 500 ppm level (and most likely reach carbon 600 ppm extinction level.) 

    Thirdly, the fossil fuel pollution that we have now and that we will continue to put into our atmosphere for the next 30-50+ years will last for centuries to thousands of years! If we stay on our current path of "too little fossil fuel reductions too late," things will not be better for those who are lucky enough to survive. Our children and future generations will curse us for our selfishness and blind stupidity. They will suffer for many centuries before their climate will re-stabilize and carbon in parts per million level to drop back down to the pre-industrial safer carbon level of 350-270 ppm. (As mentioned earlier, we are now at about carbon 420 ppm adding about three additional carbon ppm each year.)

    Forthy, the amount of emergency adaptation work needed and the short amount of time available (from now until about 10-20 years from now as things get progressively much worse,) makes this immediate adaptation and preparation step an action and planning imperative! Adapting and moving all necessary critical resources, technology, infrastructure will take a lot of time. This mass transfer means moving them into the safer areas near or above the 45th parallel north or near or below the 45th parallel south. (You do not want to move much above the 55th parallel north or much above the 55th parallel south.)

    And finally, these transfers will be a massive undertaking, which will require new levels of cooperation between nations never seen before.

    This mass population transfer and the demands for justice also mean:

    1. Moving willing people that already are suffering and are the most vulnerable today to the worst global warming consequences. This initial series of mass migrations must be done without panic and in a well-organized and well-supported way. These first migration relocations also will be a necessary rehearsal for the additional millions of people that will need to be relocated each year as global warming worsens and makes growing food and surviving impossible in many areas.

    2. Moving hundreds of millions of willing people (eventually as many as several billion) from the most unsafe global warming zones into the safer zones. This mass migration will be fraught with challenges that will require profound international cooperation at unprecedented levels. This ongoing year-by-year migration will, by necessity and urgency, become the greatest migration in human history.

    This "Great Global Migration" without question needs to begin now! If we wait until it's too late, there will be panic, chaos, and severe conflicts if not all-out international war as the remaining trapped populations and any lottery losers desperately try to migrate far north or far south.

    People will eventually realize that what is happening today is not random, lousy weather. They will finally see our worsening climate as an increasing pattern of storms and other extreme weather consequences regularly increasing in frequency, severity, and scale that has not been seen for thousands of years if ever. Once they realize this, many more will then migrate.

    By about 2029, we estimate that at least 2-5% of the world's population will have figured out that the wild climate fluctuations and seasonal extremes that they are witnessing are not random or freak occurrences. They will have figured out that the climate is destabilizing steadily and rapidly. They too will realize the climate catastrophes we are already experiencing are showing a clear pattern of ever-increasing severity, frequency, and scale (the size of the area they are covering). 

    Once these hundreds of millions of people realize they need to get out soon or get caught in the suffering, chaos, and death of crashing and soaring real estate, economies, and market prices (depending upon which area you're leaving or moving to,) they will migrate, and they will migrate desperate and fast! 

    Once these hundreds of millions migrate, others remaining will see and hear about it. Then those people will begin migrating, so they too do not get caught with no place to move to or too few resources left to get there.

    To avoid the potential chaos of the Great Global Migration not well managed by cooperating world governments, our governments need to act NOW and not ten years from now. 

    Lastly, to make the new migration lottery system work effectively individuals already living near or above the 45th parallel north or near or above the 45th parallel south cannot and should not be removed to make room for new climagees. This existing resident removal strategy would only cause more conflict, delay, and confusion, which would further complicate an already massively complex undertaking.

    Action Step 2: Pass new laws to prevent all unfair profiteering by any individual, corporation, or nation seeking to exploit the extinction emergency or the mass migrations to safer areas. It is critical to set severe penalties and to remove all profit from any entity charging more than the reasonable pre-emergency prices for food the global warming safer lands or anything else. 

    Actions Step 3: Moving critical infrastructure also includes moving the world's artistic, architectural, and cultural heritage from the global warming unsafe zones to the global warming safe zones for preservation. The best of our art, architecture, and cultures are also what make us human. These things contain critical elements of our history and who we are that will help keep us sane while going through this catastrophe.

    Action Step 4: Move all needed global plant and animal diversity into the safest remaining areas.

    Many needed plants and animals will not be able to migrate on their own in time to avoid extinction. Almost in a Noah's ark fashion, our governments must begin cataloging and making provisions to get all needed global plants and animals into the safer areas where they can survive and may be required.

    Action Step 5: Educate and incentivize having the citizens of every nation begin their emergency preparations and backup plans. To be successful in saving the future, it is not only governments that must start acting in this area. Simultaneously, every citizen also needs to be responsible for themselves and become a part of the greatest mobilization of resources and people in human history. It is unlikely any government will have enough resources to protect all of its citizens. That is why you must begin your own Plan B preparations and planning. (The Job One plan has specific steps to help you do this. Click here to begin this section.)

    Action Step 6: We need to ensure that nuclear reactors, nuclear and biological weapons, and toxic chemical manufacturing sites within all global warming unsafe zones are secured.

    Secured means that all remaining more stable governments have an adequately resourced and ready backup plan in place for managing these contingencies as the less stable governments and economies collapse in the unsafe zones. 

    As global warming worsens inside the global warming unsafe zones, the political systems and nations will destabilize, and most of them will collapse. Once those political systems collapse, there will be no longer be stable and organized procedures, staffing, or resources for ensuring that:

    1. any nuclear reactors within those areas do not meltdown and go critical or that, 

    2. nuclear or biological weapons within those areas are not stolen or triggered or that, 

    3. toxic chemical manufacturing sites within those areas do not leak.

    If any of this happened, it would threaten not only the survival of that particular area, region, or the nations within that unsafe zone; it would also threaten the survival of the whole world. 

    Take a moment to imagine the hundreds of nuclear reactors in the global warming unsafe zones becoming new Chernobyls and Fukagimas one after another. There would be no place on earth nor any bunker that would keep you safe from this massive amount of radiation circling the planet for decades to hundreds to thousands of years. 

    Now take a moment to imagine, all of the biological and chemical weapons and toxic chemical manufacturing sites in the unsafe global warming zones becoming compromised and leaking their slow and painful death out into the world. Surviving this would be a living hell and near impossible.

    The preceding worst-case nuclear, biological, and chemical catastrophe iwhat will likely happen if the nations of the world do not preemptively cooperate in this emergency area. The world's nations need to realize that our escalating climate change emergency is a no-win game unless they collaborate and make the best possible decisions to preserve the human species and our civilization.

    If the governments of the world do not thoroughly do this action step two, there is no rational or reasonable hope that even the smallest part of the human race will survive to save civilization and repopulate the earth within the global warming safer zones. 

    Action Step 7: Each government must create archives containing all human knowledge needed for the post-collapse and post-dark age periods. These many archives must survive the post-collapse new dark ages for decades to centuries.

    These archives will be essential to the survivors for rebuilding the world. The hope is that when survivors rebuild, they will use the archived knowledge and the many painful lessons of the great extinction and collapse to create a Great Global Rebirth.

    Additionally, governments must also begin planning how to make the post-collapse dark ages as short as possible. The longer the post-collapse dark age period lasts, the lower the probability much of humanity will survive it. The longer the new dark age lasts, the likelihood of this tragedy empowering the Great Global Rebirth also diminishes radically. 

    Action Step 8: While the governments of the world are doing all of the action steps in 1-6 above, it is critically important that they also engage in the radical fossil fuel reduction action steps described in Part 3 of the Job One Plan. These additional steps are absolutely essential to slow down global warming enough so we still have adequate time left to prepare, adapt, and migrate so at least some of humanity will survive.

    Never forget that getting at least close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets is our last best chance to prevent our reaching the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point. Unfortunately, it is highly probable that we will cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction-level tipping point.

    (Please see this page if you have any doubts about why it is highly unlikely that we will reach the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. This page will also help explain why our world leaders must enact this governmental level emergency backup Plan B while passing the other actions steps listed here in the Job One Plan.

    Action Step 9: As soon as possible, our governments must honestly inform their citizens that the climate consequence-driven extinction of about half of humanity by mid-century is now unavoidable. 

    They must honestly let their citizens know that we must now make great sacrifices to save the other half of humanity because of their own six decades of inaction or ineffective climate action. Unless the public understands what has happened and why they may be unwilling to make the necessary sacrifices to save the younger generations. 

    To inform their citizens thoroughly and adequately, our politicians must now tell them about the ten most important facts about our climate and runaway global heating condition

    Giving the public this horrible news will also allow them more time to prepare physically, emotionally, and spiritually as best as possible. If done correctly and soon, it should help prevent public panic and inspire a new level of global cooperation to save the younger X, Y, Z, and A generations.

    Additionally, any politician who failed to effectively cut fossil fuel subsidies over the last six decades or order the correct critical fossil fuel reductions must voluntarily exclude and bar themselves (and their families) from any climate migration or enhanced safety program benefit in any global heating safer area. This justice-inspired benefit restriction is because these politicians are the most responsible for failing to do their jobs concerning the decades-long escalation of the climate and global heating extinction threat. And finally,

    Action Step 10: Our governments must also convince the older generations to help finance the younger generations getting prepared or migrating and rebuilding in new, safer locations.

    It is the right thing to do for those generations who have not had as much time to live like the older generations. It is also the right thing to do because the older generations have a greater responsibility for restitution. This greater restitution and climate justice responsibility is valid because, despite six decades of valid scientific warnings, they allowed the runaway global heating extinction emergency to occur on their watch.