I have terrible news on the most critical constant used in climate change calculations. If this number is wrong, every climate change calculation using it will also be wrong.
The following is a bit technical, but I have included definition links to make it easier to grasp how crucial and bad this climate change calculation error is for your climate future and the severe legal liability exposure for every corporation and government worldwide that uses the United Nations's Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change Summary Reports.
And, there is a bit of good news at the end of this article about how this news can be used positively.
The following contains the reasons why past climate change predictions and solutions by the world's leading climate change authority (the UN's IPCC) are no longer valid, have been wrong for a long time and need to be re-done correctly and reissued immediately.
Overview of the IPCC's Major Climate Change Calculation Error
The single most critical climate change number is known as the climate sensitivity constant. Climate sensitivity is a measure of how much Earth's surface will warm fo a doubling in the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration.
A 2023 peer-reviewed study points to probability that the IPCC is keeping this all-important climate sensitivity constant, which is used in the most critical climate calculations artificially low despite continual protests by recognized climate scientists over the last several decades.
According to this new 2023 peer-reviewed study, the correct climate sensitivity constant is 4.8 degrees Celsius, not the 3 degrees Celsius constant currently used by the IPCC over the last decades in almost ALL foundational climate change calculations.
This nearly 60% difference in the correct 4.8 degrees Celsius climate sensitivity constant over the IPCC's incorrect 3 degrees Celsius constant is NOT a minor or low-impact matter concerning your future.
The 2023 study that disclosed this massive climate sensitivity error is called Global Warming in the Pipeline. It is by James Hansen et al. (James Hansen is the renowned climate scientist who, while at NASA in the 1980s, was primarily responsible for bringing the climate change emergency globally into the public mind.)
This corrected 4.8 degrees Celsius climate sensitivity constant amount powerfully indicates climate consequences will be far worse and far beyond than what our governments and the media are telling us.
It also means the fossil fuel reduction target amounts that many of our governments have agreed to for reducing global climate change are also grossly underestimated by as much as 60%.
This corrected 4.8 degrees Celsius climate sensitivity constant also points to the fact that we are already in the worst-case climate change scenario that honest climate researchers have been warning about and for which humanity is not even remotely prepared.
The worst outcome of having the climate sensitivity constant not being 3 degrees Celsius but 4.8 degrees Celsius (about 60% greater) is that almost all of the climate calculations provided by the IPCC upon which governments, media, and the whole world depend for accurate climate consequence severity estimates, consequence arrival timeframes, and the correct global fossil fuel reduction target amounts are now wildly incorrect!
This corrected climate sensitivity constant of 4.8 degrees Celsius also means that not only are our worst climate change fears confirmed. It also means that when you also include all the factors listed in reasons 1-5 further below, almost all of the IPCC's climate change consequence severity, timeframes and global fossil fuel reduction targets are underestimated by up to 60%.
The gaping illogicalness of the IPCC's keeping the all-important climate sensitivity amount fixed at 3 degrees Celsius for decades when an incorrect calculation as critical as this would put the world's survival at stake makes one wonder:
a. who might have the required super-leverage to "bend" the math behind the scenes at the IPCC and,
b. who would most profit by keeping the global fossil fuel reduction target about 60% lower than it should have been?
Is it believable that the IPCC would continue to pick the low 3 degrees Celsius constant and fail to apply the Precautionary Principle of wise risk management when the very survival of billions of people is at stake and their survival substantively depends upon having and using the most correct information?
The Precautionary Principle implies that there is a social and legal responsibility to protect the public from exposure to harm, when scientific investigation has found a plausible risk. These protections should be relaxed only if further scientific findings emerge that provide sound evidence that no harm will result.
Yet, extensive older climate sensitivity evidence and the new Hansen 2023 study clearly indicate more harm will come to humanity from using the lower 3 degrees Celsius constant and not the correct 4.8 degrees Celsius constant. What hidden influence or agenda could possibly be directing (or forcing) the IPCC to choose climate calculations known to cause more harm and death and render humanity less warned and less prepared for what is coming?
The illustration below helps to show that as climate conditions worsen and as more carbon goes into the atmosphere, the climate sensitivity constant also needs to be adjusted accordingly because of a variety of factors.
The "good news" regarding the highly suspicious 60% climate sensitivity error by the IPCC
1. The next time you hear a global fossil fuel reduction target or climate consequence report from your government or the media, you can wisely discount whatever they are saying by up to 60%.
2. Unlike those denying the climate change emergency or those who believe the current government and media climate change timetables and solutions are correct, being so warned, you still have time to plan and prepare and you have a new and appropriate urgency. You do not need to panic over this horrible climate change news.
3. Because you know about this new 2023 Hansen study, you, your family, and your business will not be caught completely unaware, unprepared, or vulnerable when the world gets hit by the next big wave of severe climate change-driven extreme weather storms or other climate consequences.
Unfortunately, it is not just the new 2023 Hansen climate change study results to be concerned about
There are also other big reasons to be very concerned about the IPCC's severe underestimation problems in almost everything you hear from your governments and the media about climate change:
Reason 1: There are highly disruptive and potentially huge climate consequence amplification effects as we cross more significant climate change tipping points and feedbacks. Most of these tipping points and feedbacks are seldom included in IPCC climate change calculations.
Reason 2: The IPCC has also included "backed-in" phony phantom calculations into its predictions and projections for carbon capture technology's "successful" future "results" which the IPCC predicts will not start to be effective until about 2050.
They have inserted projected carbon capture success calculations into their prediction and solutions processes even though this new technology:
a. is entirely unproven at the required scale,
b. nowhere near an affordable cost efficiency, and
c. it could have even worse unknown side effects.
Years ago, in this article, we wrote about this massive additional IPCC "cooked books" distortion of using climate change calculations for carbon capture's "magical carbon-sucking unicorns." This IPCC calculation distortion causes severe harm to humanity but is fantastic for the ongoing profits of the global fossil fuel cartel.
Reason 3: Climate systems and subsystems include unknown non-linear climate change-related feedbacks common in complex adaptive systems like the climate system and many of its subsystems. The Precautionary Principle requires assigning some value to their occurrence probability and effect in complex adaptive systems. Unfortunately, these non-linear climate change-related feedbacks are seldom if ever, included in IPCC climate change calculations.
Reason 4: Even before the new 2023 climate sensitivity correction study by Hansen et al. came out, Job One had predicted the average global temperature in 2050 would be considerably warmer than the IPCC-predicted temperature of about 1.5- 1.8 degrees Celsius. We predicted it will be at least a 2 -2.7 degree Celsius increase over pre-industrial levels and probably more depending on additional crossed tipping points. (The Job One corrected temperature predictions for 2050 and beyond listed on this page; do consider and include reasons 1-5.)
Reason 5: Unlike many climate change think tanks, at Job One, we include probable adverse dialectical interactions and consequence interdependencies both within a subsystem and between the many climate subsystems that comprise the overall climate system. These climate subsystems involve ocean temperatures, currents, and carbon uptake, atmosphere composition (methane, carbon, and nitrous dioxide levels) soils, and forest carbon sequestration efficiency, glacier melting, snow cover (Albedo), permafrost and tundra melting rates, increased rates of methane clathrate melting rates, etc.
Much of today's climate research and media and government reports come from single "siloed" climate areas and not from dialectical multi-climate system research or analysis perspectives. Dialectical multi-climate system research and analysis is different because it includes the possible tipping points, linear and nonlinear climate feedbacks, and other factors interacting within the particular climate system being studied and the potential or probable climate subsystem interactions outside that particular studied climate subsystem.
Much can happen with a single climate subsystem interacting inter-dependently with and between other related climate subsystems.
About the severe legal liability exposure for every corporation and government worldwide that uses the IPCC's Climate Change Summary Reports
Because the IPCC's Climate Change Summary Reports have been widely, conclusively, and repeatedly shown by numerous peer-reviewed climate studies to be grossly underestimated by 60% and additionally politically compromised by fossil fuel interests having undue influence over the IPCC, any corporation or government who has used (or continues to use) the IPCC's Climate Change Summary Reports has a severe legal liability exposure in any climate change risk disclosures used in any of their purchase agreements, insurance policies, investment disclosures, or anywhere else their legal or agency documents discuss climate changes consequence risks. For example, this new liability exposure applies to zoning agencies that have issued future flood plain ratings based on IPCC Summary Report predictions.
This now means that all corporations and governments that used the IPCC's Climate Change Summary Reports in any of their risk disclosures for property purchases, insurance, investments, etc, must immediately update those disclosures with notices to their clients of the correct new levels of climate risk based on the corrected climate change consequence calculations that are not underestimated by 60%. This climate change-related risk and disclosure update may not shield the corporations and governments from past climate change consequence liabilities because, proper due diligence by their chief executives and law firms should have discovered the well-documented and widespread prior challenges to the inaccuracy of IPCC's Summary Reports by the climate change science community.
What we need to do with the current IPCC Climate Change Summary Report and demand in future reports
The IPCC gross underestimation of climate sensitivity in its summary reports requires some immediate action:
1. The world's citizens, governments, corporations, and media must demand that the IPCC's latest climate change summary report is immediately re-done and re-issued using the correct climate sensitivity constant, that all other known errors and omissions are also fixed, and that all fossil fuel favorable conflicts of interest are removed. Until this corrected new climate change summary report is issued, we strongly recommend discounting everything in the existing uncorrected report by 60%.
This IPCC underestimation crisis means that IPCC-predicted climate consequences can be viewed as being 60% worse than we are being told and will arrive 60% sooner than the IPCC has predicted. This underestimation crisis also means that the IPPC calculations for global fossil fuel calculations are 60% too little and must be achieved 60% sooner than the current IPCC fossil fuel reduction deadlines.(Please see this page, which summarizes the many decades of severe IPCC underestimation issues, critical calculation issues and omissions, and other IPCC methods to "cook" and distort the climate change calculations to allow the global fossil fuel cartel to continue selling even more fossil fuel amounts and avoid meaningful government regulations to reduce global fossil fuel use.)
2. If the IPCC does not immediately re-issue corrected climate change summary reports resolving its known conflict of interest, underestimation, and other issues, then the IPCC must be bypassed and discarded as a credible, trusted source of climate change information. Then, to get honest climate information to corporations, governments, the media, and the world's citizens, a new climate change research authority must be created independent of all fossil fuel or governmental conflicts of interest.
Because of all the cumulative, synergistic, and dialectically interacting factors in Hansen's new 2023 study and in 1-5 above, most climate researchers and activists do not realize that we are already in the worst-case climate change scenario!
The IPCC's climate calculations have far too many severe ongoing calculation problems, which have consistently underestimated the climate change emergency for years and what must be done to fix it. This consistent underestimation pattern now becomes one of the best proofs of the cartel's ongoing invisible hand distorting traditionally relied-upon global climate change information at its "trusted" source.
This "trusted" source-level distortion of correct climate risks also condemns the world's population to be unable to think about the climate change emergency correctly. Worse yet, it also prevents our politicians from being adequately informed so that they act on climate change appropriately.
Our ongoing climate change nightmare is being fueled by the fossil fuel cartel's global disinformation campaigns and their behind-the-scenes nefarious manipulations. These actions have caused long delays in executing honest governmental regulation, which could have reduced global fossil fuel emissions to what they should have been beginning more than four decades ago.
Here is what the new Hansen 2023 study and reasons 1-5 above means personally to you and your future:
1. Every plan or project by any government agency, business, financial institution, defense department, or construction firm that was in any way depending upon the reliability of the grossly underestimated IPCC climate change summary reports must now be re-calculated and re-planned. Henson's 2023 peer-reviewed study Global Warming in the Pipeline, introduces a new and massive level of unpredictability and unpreparedness for what humanity will face with accelerating climate change worldwide.
2. You have considerably less time than you previously believed to prepare and adapt to the next wave of intensifying climate change consequences.
3. It is doubtful the IPCC will ever start using the Precautionary Principle of risk management that will protect All humanity and stop "cooking the climate change calculation books" to protect the profits of the global fossil fuel cartel. The global fossil fuel cartel so compromises the IPCC's relationship that the IPCC is having its next international conference, called COP 28, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, one of the world's largest oil producers.
4. Treat this widely distributed article also as a bonified Public Legal Notice to all corporations and governments that used the IPCC's Climate Change Summary Reports in any of their risk disclosures for property purchases, insurance, investments, etc, must immediately update those disclosures with notices to their clients of the correct new levels of climate risk based on the corrected climate change consequence calculations that are not underestimated by 60%. This climate change-related risk and disclosure update may not shield the corporations and governments from past climate change consequence liabilities because, proper due diligence by their chief executives and law firms should have discovered the well-documented and widespread prior challenges to the inaccuracy of IPCC's Summary Reports by the climate change science community.
I sincerely hope this special climate alert helps you make the needed adjustments. And please
For our children and future,
Job One for Humanity & Universe Spirit
Additional References and Documentation
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