There are serious reasons for why we may not achieve the extinction-preventing 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines. We may not even hit any fossil fuel reduction targets or deadlines for the next 30-50 years.

Here's why...

Introduction

There is an old saying that "you can't reach your desired destination unless you can see and plan for the barriers that stand in your way. Below you will discover the many obstacles which stand in the way of solving the global warming extinction emergency by reaching the required 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.

Ultimately, it is you who is the one who will decide if the reasons listed below are sufficient to keep us from reaching the 2025 targets. To help you wisely evaluate this issue, each of the reasons below has additional links leading you to the full documentation proving each particular statement accurate. 

The size and complexity of the barriers to success below may be discouraging. As you read them keep in mind that at the end of this document are links to good news and counter-balancing actions we can still take to slow down the global warming monster. 

The reasons we will not achieve the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets (and maybe no any other reduction targets for the next 30-50 years)

Each of the many reasons below has additional links leading you to the full documentation proving that particular statement is itself true. To accurately present the reasons why we may not be able to achieve the 2025 reduction targets and why global warming may already be out of control, it is essential to first explain:

a. how to best measure global warming reduction status and progress,

b. clearly define what we mean by "out of global warming control," and

c. the correct fossil fuel targets we need to meet to avoid mass extinction within our lifetimes. 

Let's get started. Below you see a graph showing the amount of carbon in our atmosphere.

The amount of carbon in our atmosphere in parts per million (ppm) is one of the best, if not the single most reliable predictor of future global warming temperatures as either increases or decreases. More carbon in the atmosphere equals higher temperatures and worse consequences and vice versa. 

Look at the steeply increasing angle of the C02 graph. This shows us that we are not controlling escalating global warming! 

When we say that we have probably already lost meaningful control over escalating global warming, we mean that:

1. although we may make further progress in reducing global fossil fuel use, those reductions are grossly inadequate compared to the 2025 global cuts now required. Consequently, we will not be able to save ourselves from the worst consequences of global warming or prevent mass extinction event within our lifetimes.

2. we also will be unable to radically reduce our average annual increase in atmospheric carbon each year over the next 30-50 years. (Our average annual increase is currently at about three carbon ppm.) Why this is important will be explained in the further below.) 

3. we are entirely unable to get our total atmospheric carbon ppm levels (now at about carbon 414 ppm back down to anywhere close to our previously safe level for humans life of carbon 270-350 ppm. Carbon 270-350 ppm is our past human-safe level where our current climate could once again re-stabilize, but only after hundreds or thousands of years. 

Unless we are successful in achieving the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets and we can resolve the many challenges to success discussed below to reaching those targets, it can easily be said that our global warming future might already be out of our meaningful control.

Only if we achieve the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, do we have any practical hope of not going over the carbon 425-450 ppm climate cliff and then quickly triggering the two global warming extinction-evoking tipping points (described below.)

While it may be theoretically possible to still reach the 2025 targets, we also will have to overcome the many challenges listed below to be successful. And, the first reasons listed may be the most difficult to overcome. 

Here are more details and another way of describing why the above 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets are so important to achieve. If we do not engage in anything less than the greatest government-driven mass mobilization in human history of all necessary resources directed toward radically cutting fossil fuel use to hit the critical 2025 global reduction targets, we will without a doubt go over what is called our "last chance" carbon climate cliff and tipping point. This last chance tipping point will occur at or shortly after we cross the carbon 425-450 parts per million (ppm) range. (See the blue Atmospheric CO2 carbon graph above to see how close we are to that point already.)

It is called our last chance climate cliff because it truly is our last window of opportunity to keep from going over the carbon 425 to 450 climate cliff and tipping point. Once we go over this climate cliff and tipping point, our average global temperature will inevitably rise above 2°C far faster than ever before in geologic time. This very fast temperature rise will also create a powerful momentum that will then push our average global temperature even higher even faster.

This momentum is composed of many factors and processes including crossing additional global warming tipping points, which, unfortunately, we will also begin to cross at an even faster pace once we go over the climate cliff.  

(To learn more about how crossing global warming tipping points [like those in the illustration above,] function, accelerate global warming temperature rise, consequences, causes sudden and complete climate, biological and human system collapses as well as make recovery from their consequences much slower, harder and more expensive, click here.)

If we continue only to the carbon 425 ppm climate cliff tipping point level, within about 6 years (or less,) we can expect to lock in an eventual increase in average global temperature of about 2 -2.7° Celsius (4° - 4.9° Fahrenheit) from preindustrial levels. At just this 2°-2.7° Celsius increased average global temperature level, millions more will starve and millions of additional people from all over the world will eventually be forced to either migrate or die. This occurs in part because of:

a. global warming systemic as well as atmospheric carbon accumulation momentum factors, 

b. serious human systems inertia and other problem factors, (Described in part on this page.)

c. more and other crossed tipping points.

Once we go over the climate cliff and hit the 2.2°-2.7° Celsius average global temperature increase level, the total heat-producing momentum of all of the previous carbon that we have ever put into the atmosphere (particularly all that additional carbon we have added over the last 50 years,) along with the other factors previously mentioned (in a, b and c above,) will once again quickly and inevitably push our global average global temperature even higher!

This also means that for all intents and purposes, once we go over the climate cliff at about carbon 425 ppm and climate and human system momentum and inertia factors we are basically locked into continually increasing temperatures for as much as the next 30-50 years! 

If we cross the carbon 425 carbon ppm climate cliff and tipping point, we will reach the key threshold and carbon and temperature transition level where we will be unable to stop ourselves from continuing uncontrollably and far too quickly to 3°, 4°, 5°, and 6° Celsius average global temperature increases (5.4°, 7.2°, 9°, and 10.8° Fahrenheit.) Once we cross the 2°C carbon 425 ppm climate cliff the even higher temperature levels of 3°, 4°, 5°, and possibly even 6° Celsius will be all but locked in due to:

1. our continuing to add more fossil fuel burning carbon to the atmosphere each and every additional year (at about 3 ppm per year,)

2. this ever-increasing heat-producing carbon and other greenhouse gas momentum, and

3. our being unable to stop ourselves from crossing many more global warming tipping points and triggering other positive feedback loops and points of no return within the many systems and subsystems of the global climate due to human system inertias and other problems.

Because of the preceding, we have no other rational alternative other than to prevent ever crossing into this highly dangerous transitional carbon 425-450 ppm threshold, range and tipping point. At our current rate of carbon and other greenhouse gas atmospheric pollution, entering this range will begin unfortunately, sometime around 2025. 

There is something we can be certain of in this emergency. No matter what and in spite of all of the challenges and bad outcomes that are possible, the single constant truth for the best possible global warming outcome for humanity in this emergency is that, the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use:

a. the more people we will survive to carry on humanity, life and our beautiful civilization, and

b. future generations will suffer less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences.

In the illustration below you see a red vertical "Must not pass, last chance battle line and range of carbon 425 to 450 ppm." As you can see, going over the carbon 425 climate cliff leads us to a very steep and slippery downward slope to our own rapid extinction. 

This illustration above also lists at what carbon ppm levels the six distinct phases of the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown occur (CS Phase 1-6.) After you read the rest of the document, we strongly recommend that you also review the detailed year-by-year global warming consequence timetables found in what we call the Climageddon extinction scenario and countdown. 

Crossing the climate cliff of carbon 425 ppm unfailingly sets us up to rapidly cross with the next near-extinction atmospheric carbon tipping point level of carbon 500 ppm where the average global temperature will eventually increase to 4°C. If we miss the 2025 targets, carbon 500 ppm is predicted to happen in as soon as 20-25 years from now about 2038-2042. At a 4°C temperature increase above preindustrial levels, all ice on earth will melt, chaos will ensue and today's organized society can no longer exist or function!

Once we cross the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction tipping point, it is near-certain that we will also soon cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction tipping point not too long after that. (Much more will be said about the carbon 500 and 600 ppm extinction tipping point processes and their consequences further down this page.)

When we cross this carbon 425-450 ppm "last chance" climate cliff, in addition to leading us rapidly into mass extinction (70-90% of humanity,) in as little as the next 30 to 50 years, the consequences we will experience will also be irreversible for centuries to thousands of years.

Unfortunately, our governments have been giving public global warming predictions that include a 25-40% underestimation factor as well as not including any calculations for any of the 11 key tipping points being crossed. When you add these factors back into the prediction calculations to correct them, it becomes obvious that we will be facing our worst nightmares of higher global temperatures far faster than we are even remotely prepared for. 

(There is much more information including what our individual, business and national annual fossil fuel reduction targets would be, what will happen if we don't hit the above targets, and the technical footnotes that will help explain why the severity of these fossil fuel reductions. We strongly suggest you go to this highly recommended global fossil fuel reduction explanation page and read all the qualifying information on the absolutely essential fossil fuel reductions sometime before you put this document away.)

Getting Real about what will be done to reduce fossil fuel use radically

To grasp how painful these cuts will be, imagine that in the next six years you will have to cut your total home, auto, plane and business activities that use fossil fuels by at least 75%. Then once you have done that, you will have to cut back again to net-zero fossil fuel use within the next ten years after that. Now try to imagine everyone else in all developed nations doing the same.

If you live in a developed country, are you doing this now? Does that seem possible that you would voluntarily change your normal life and fossil fuel use so fast? Do you see the governments of the developed nations of the world coming together in a great act of cooperation passing the laws, verification procedures and the enforceable punishments necessary to make sure we make the 2025 deadline?

You probably came up with the same answer we did, which is it is near certain we will not make the required fossil fuel cuts in time. It is more likely that the developed world citizens who did not understand the urgency or importance of why they needed to make these painful sacrifices, would throw their politicians out of office. They would also most likely overthrow any government that tried to enforce these radical fossil fuel reductions upon their comfortable or subsistence level lifestyles and livelihoods. 

Now imagine all of the individuals, corporations, and governments in the developed nations which mostly depend upon fossil fuels seeing their livelihoods disappear by at least 75% in the next six years. How much of a fight and disinformation program would those individuals, industries, and nations put up or create to preserve their livelihoods and their futures?

It's hard to imagine what the fossil fuel industry would not be capable of doing to preserve a $28 trillion year market segment. 

When the above 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets (and other factors described in the other reasons below,) are taken collectively into consideration, the 2025 critical fossil fuel reductions while theoretically still possible, are all but impossible to achieve at this time.

Reason 2: Our governments and other authorities keep giving us incorrect global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines that will not work. Depending on where you live in the world, your politicians, governments, and even most of the world's environmental groups are giving you different and incorrect fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines. For example, many countries have set the target of becoming net-zero carbon by 2050. This wrong targets issue even includes the US Democratic party. Other governments, the UN, and almost all environmental groups are promoting various levels of fossil fuel reductions and net-zero carbon by either 2050, 2040, 2035, 2032, and 2030. 

These later targets and deadlines are entirely inadequate and will not save us in time. Worse yet, when you have competing incorrect global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines forward by "established" authorities and they are grossly inadequate or just dead wrong, it thwarts humanity's ability understand or execute the correct fossil fuel reduction targets. 

Ironically, if we cannot get the world's recognized environmental leaders to promote the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines, which at least have some reasonable chance to prevent a massive extinction event from occurring within our lifetimes, how likely is it that we will ever achieve the 2025 reductions?

In the other reasons below, you will discover incorrect calculations, allowances for nonexistent new technologies, and the many twisted ways that those who have been trusted to lead us with the correct global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines are not doing so. Until these wrong targets and deadlines are corrected or removed, there is little chance we will re-organize to focus our efforts on accomplishing the right targets and deadlines.

Time until 2025 is running out fast. Only by hitting or coming very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets will we be able to avoid a mass extinction event within the next 30-50 years.

One could easily say that any entity promoting incorrect or inadequate fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines is certainly not part of the global warming solution. Entities promoting the wrong targets and deadlines have now become a major part of the problem if we want to prevent a mass extinction event from occurring within our lifetimes.

Reason 3: The horrible agricultural side effects if we do cut fossil fuel radically to reach the 2025 levels described above. The main side effect is global agriculture will crash when we drastically reduce fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 targets. Agriculture is heavily dependent upon fossil fuels such as methane to make the essential fertilizers and other chemicals to allow mass food production to occur. 

Agriculture also depends heavily upon fossil fuels to run the equipment essential to creating and processing our mass food production and its distribution. Once we come anywhere close to the crucial levels of global fossil-fuel reductions we need to execute to save the future, highly fossil fuel-dependent global agriculture will crash. Then up to 50% of the population will die of starvation not long after that.

What this means is that if we do not make the required 2025 global fossil fuel reductions, as much as 70 to 90% of humanity will die in as little as 30 to 50 years. If we do not make the required 2025 global fossil fuel reductions, as much as 50% of humanity will die of starvation in as little as 20 to 30 years. That is a difficult choice that few politicians are even willing to consider.

Reason 4: It is highly improbable we will ever make the real needed cuts to our fossil fuel use to save ourselves because they will temporarily crash the world economy. Another primary reason it is unlikely we will make the required cuts soon enough to save ourselves is because of what is called Garrett's Global Warming Dilemma. 

Professor Garrett's research states that because of the laws of physics and mathematics, almost all of our fossil fuel-based global economy must first collapse in a necessary and steep global recession or depression. Only this will produce the required cuts in our fossil fuel use in time to save humanity. Environmental groups around the world most often ignore this well-documented climate research by Professor Garrett because it also produces a horrible dilemma for which either answer is unthinkable as well as un-sellable to members. 

Because of this dilemma, and because there is no public or political will to create a severe, but necessary global recession or depression to adequately reduce fossil fuel use, most environmental groups hide this critical research away and ignore it like dirty laundry. Because of this economic dilemma, it is hard to imagine that fossil fuels use will ever be cut to anything close to the critical levels needed. At least not until we are faced with massive global financial losses and billions dead. 

Unfortunately, by that time, the worst consequences and higher temperatures of global warming also will be irreversible for timescales far, far beyond the human lifespan.

(If you're a science person, please click here and read a summary of Prof. Garrett's alarming research on atmospheric carbon, global warming, and the necessary fossil fuel reductions we must make to save the future.)

Reason 5: The projected new length of time it will take to move away from global fossil fuel energy generation to green energy generation to replace it. It is now estimated to take about 400 years to fully scale up green energy generation to replace all fossil fuel energy generation and uses. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) just published a new article where they layout where we are currently in green energy development.

In this article, they state it will take us about 400 years to replace all fossil fuel energy generation with green energy generation. This new information means that any realistic hope we had for a fast transition (in less than 50-100+ years) to full green energy generation to replace all fossil fuel energy generation is entirely unrealistic.

Reason 6: The promised new "miracle" technologies will not save us before it is too late! Some of you may hear the news that global warming is out of our control and will think, "aren't they working on inventions it will suck the fossil fuel burning carbon particles out of the atmosphere in time to save us?" If you think that this is our easy out and easy solution to continue our fossil fuel burning "business as usual," please click here.

Here you can read why the currently nonexistent carbon capture technology is a silicon valley and techno-optimism delusion that will not save us in time. You will also learn why carbon capture technology is also a mathematical and physical near impossibility.

Today you find carbon capture technology being forwarded mostly by impatient, profit-hungry entrepreneurs, and mechanical engineers looking to make billions on the greatest catastrophe of human history.

In summary, believing that atmospheric carbon capture schemes will save us at the last minute from our ill-advised actions (instead of changing our behaviors,) is equivalent to believing in magical carbon sucking unicorns.

Reason 7: There is still no verifiable or enforceable international agreement that could execute and enforce the critical 2025 fossil fuel reduction levels needed. There is no adequate verification or enforcement of our existing international global warming reduction agreements. Our existing international agreements do not require anything even close to 2025 global fossil fuel reductions to make matters even worse! 

The required levels of global fossil-fuel reduction could occur if there was a total governmental commitment and an immediate mass mobilization by all nations to begin cutting fossil fuel to the 2025 percentages listed above. There would also need to be some form of an overarching international agency that had real verification, enforcement, and punishment rights over all nations that might violate the global warming reduction treaties or agreements. That kind of power implies some form of functional global government which is estimated to be decades away at the earliest.

Because there are no such verifiable and enforceable international reduction agreements among governments or, any current governmental mass mobilization to implement the critical reductions, it means that we will be adding carbon to the atmosphere at our current average annual rate of about three or more ppm per year for about the next 30- 50 + years. This would add at least, another 90-150 carbon ppm to our current 414 ppm total, or carbon 504 to 554 ppm. (See atmospheric carbon graph further above and imagine the steepness of the graph line as another 150 carbon ppm points is added to it over the next 50 years.)

Reason 8: The human race is significantly distracted and limited by day-to-day survival issues, current media distractions, and a fatal global warming evolutionary disability. Because of this and other factors, humanity will not collectively realize it is in an extinction emergency until it is far too late! 

Because of many distraction factors, it is not unreasonable to say that 95% of the population is so distracted by the day-to-day activities that they do not have the time or available bandwidth to process and respond to such a complex problem. It would also be fair to say 95% of people are unable to understand this emergency because of a natural evolutionary disability to understanding slow-moving threats like global warming. 

This natural inherited "disability" is our innate fight or flight protective evolutionary mechanism, which was designed over millions of years of evolution to respond mainly to immediate, highly visible threats. Global warming is a slow-moving nearly invisible threat.

Reason 9: The citizens of the world rising as a single powerful voice to demand their politicians act immediately won't happen in time to save us either.

This is because:

a. understanding the global warming extinction emergency is incredibly complex. To adequately understand the threat, an individual would have to have above-average intelligence, (IQ 130+.) They would also have to have read thousands of pages of global warming research, understand systems theory or, have an equivalent of a Ph.D. in climatology.

b. 16% of the human population can't read at all. A significant remaining percentage of the human population does not have the discipline or ability to educate themselves sufficiently on the nature of this complex challenge to understand it as a real emergency.

c. there is a well-financed and highly effective global disinformation campaign run by the fossil fuel industries. The purpose of this disinformation is to try to confuse or impair the ability of average citizens to understanding how bad global warming is right now. It's purpose also is to ensure average citizens do not know how bad it is going to get, or how soon things are going to come crashing down on top of us. These disinformation campaigns freeze the average citizens in continuous doubt and uncertainty loop. This disinformation also freezes the desire or ability of the world's citizens to act and demand the needed changes.

d. creating a general understanding in the public of how bad things are and then getting the public to demand their politicians act will take many decades at the minimum. This time delay is because of the slow-moving process of education and consensus-building. It is also because of widespread global warming denial and the intentional and well-funded disinformation programs being executed by fossil fuel-related industries and the politicians they control.

e. making the required fossil fuel reductions will impose incredible hardship and discomfort on the individuals of the world. The painful sacrifices needed will make it very difficult to get billions of people demanding less comfort and mobility from their politicians.

Many nonprofit organizations would like you to believe that grassroots, ground-up change will get our politicians to act and save us in time. This process will not going to happen in time with this kind of complex emergency. There is not enough time left to get everyone educated on this issue. There is also not enough time to get everyone organized to get their politicians to act and overcome the denial, and disinformation before the mega-catastrophes described farther below occur.

Reason 10: The unstoppable and continuing increase in average global warming temperature due to increased fossil fuel use because of increasing population. Because of the laws of physics concerning adding new atmospheric greenhouse gases like carbon, global temperature will continue to rise as we keep adding more carbon particles into the atmosphere. Adding three or more carbon ppm per year for the next 30-50 or more years (as we are doing now,) does not include adding any other annual carbon ppm amounts for the additional energy used as the human population soars from 7 to 14 billion people. That three-carbon ppm per year also does not include many more people from the developing world will move into the middle class, demanding the same high fossil fuel comforts of the developed world. This near doubling of population, as well as the massive increase in new middle-class energy demand, could increase current fossil fuel use by another 25 to 40%.

When you look down the road 30-50 years from now and add only the additional 90-150 carbon ppm to our most current carbon 414 ppm total, it is easy to see there is no way for us to keep from crossing the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction level. (We are averaging an additional 3 ppm of carbon each year. 30 x 3 = 90 and 50 x 3 = 150. More will be disclosed below about the lasting effects of atmospheric carbon levels at or above the carbon 500 ppm level as well as at or beyond the carbon 600 ppm tipping point extinction level.) 

Reason 11: The 20-40% miscalculation of current global warming consequence timetables for many of the 20 worst global warming consequences steals the needed public urgency to act. The world's leading climate authority (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]) regularly miscalculates where we are now or where we will be on our global warming consequences and timetables by 20 to 40%. This underestimation then causes the public to underestimate our current real global warming status and condition. They do not realize that things today are already much worse than we are being told. 

Therefore, the public mentally starts with the wrong starting point and a misguided sense of urgency. To see how these reoccurring gross miscalculations have occurred by our authorities because of the politicization of the science and other factors, click here.  

(After you have read the above gross miscalculation by our authorities article, be sure to learn about the 20 worst global warming consequences here. Most of the consequences will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale over the next 50 years while we try to resolve the problems with reaching the 2025 targets listed on this page. Understanding global warming consequences is essential to understanding how 70 to 90% of the human population will die within the next 30 to 50 years.)

The 20 worst global warming consequences illustrated below create a steadily intensifying "vortex" as heat increases. This intensifying heat draws all the consequences into closer interaction and collision with each other. This process ultimately churns these consequences toward ever-higher levels of global destruction.

(Click the following link for more information on the 20 worst global warming consequences.)

Reason 12: The near insolvable problem of global warming justice definitions and global warming restitution and aid processes. In general, the industrialized and northernmost countries of the world have produced by far the most atmospheric carbon which causes global warming and its many consequences. The northern industrial revolution countries have also created most of the global warming consequences for most of the developing world.

In the illustration below, most of the developing world is located mostly between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south. Ironically, the northern industrialized nations who have predominantly caused the global warming problem will often also temporarily benefit from the changes global warming creates to the climate in their countries.

The northern nations who are also most responsible for the global warming harms caused to the developing world are unfairly resisting paying for the damage that they have done to these nations. At the same time, the northern nations are also resisting taking in the existing millions (or the coming billions,) of new global warming climate refugees (climagees.) 

In the following illustration, the lands above the 45th parallel north (above the orange line at the top of the illustration.) are where most of the human population will have to migrate to as global warming continues to accelerate.

It appears that the developed nations do not want to pay fair and just damages to the developing nations. There also are no international standards of enforceable justice for the undeveloped world to obtain restitution for the damages that the developed world has done to it. This is because there is no standard global definition of justice or responsibility for an ecological and atmospheric damage issue such as this.

With no definition for ecological atmospheric justice and responsibility, it will be all but impossible for the developing world to receive what it should from the developed world. Additionally, the definition of justice and responsibility around the world not only changes in different nations, but it also varies in different cultures, religions, and ethnicities.

Coming to a standard definition of justice and responsibility on who pays fairly for the global warming damage they have caused will likely never happen. As an ongoing sign of this injustice, the developed world has not even paid the previously agreed upon and grossly inadequate amounts that they agreed to pay to the developing world in previous global warming agreements. 

This justice issue is highly relevant to eventually resolving the global warming emergency. This is a huge problem because the developed world most likely will never pay a fair and adequate restitution (or assistance,) to the developing world for the damage they have caused. This is because:

a. those restitution costs are not paid just once. They will continue to rise exponentially as global warming accelerates. Damages to the developing countries will run into the hundreds of trillions of dollars.

b. developed countries will need all of their current financial resources to survive and stay up with the ongoing global warming catastrophes occurring in their own countries, and because of

c. inherent known and implicit biases against the cultures, religions, or ethnicities of the developing world by the developed world.

Because of the above, developed nations will also not provide adequate funding to assist the developed world rapidly transition from fossil fuel energy generation to green energy generation and fossil fuel use to green energy use. This means the northernmost countries will use the resources they already have to convert their nations to green energy generation. While at the same time, the developing nations will not have adequate funding to do the same.  

This ultimately means that the developing world where most of the world's population now lives will have to continue using fossil fuels at ever-increasing levels as their nations grow. This means we will not be able to stop the global warming extinction emergency and the coming catastrophes because most of the world will not be part of the solution.

Reason 13: The recent and projected crossings of more global warming tipping points, positive feedback loops and points of no return within the climate system. As we continue crossing more global warming tipping points, more global warming consequences will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale. 

This is because:

1. The points of no return before a tipping point is crossed as well as the crossed tipping point itself, create a "slippery slope" situation. In this "slippery slope" situation, it becomes far easier for that consequence to worsen more quickly and at a far steeper gradient.

2. tipping points when crossed create sudden and extremely difficult to recover from steep drop-offs or complete system crashes,

3. any positive feedback loop contained within the global warming tipping point processes will also significantly amplify either the positive or negative consequences of that tipping point, and 

4. a crossed tipping point within a system or subsystem tends to push other tipping points over their tipping points in the subsystems or systems interconnected to or interdependent with the original tipping point.

Understanding the 11 major global warming tipping points along with the Climageddon Scenario is essential to understanding how and why as much as 70 to 90% of the human population will suffer and die within as soon as the next 30 to 50 years. This horrible outcome will occur if we fail to hit the critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets mentioned above. 

Please click here to read more about the 11 critical global warming tipping points below and what they will mean to how fast your life will change as more of them are crossed. 

Reason 14: The steady rise of methane in the atmosphere from new releases of methane from fracking, melting permafrost, tundra, and leaking natural gas lines act as a hidden source of our global fossil-fuel reduction failure. 

Unfortunately, we will most probably cross the carbon 600 ppm final extinction level. Crossing carbon 600 ppm will result in raising the average global temperature to 5°C (9 degrees Fahrenheit) and bring about massive methane clathrate releases from ocean coastal shelves.

This has happened before in the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum 56 million years ago, and most notably the Permian–Triassic extinction event, when up to 96% of all marine species became extinct, 252 million years ago. (Please click here to watch a short video that brilliantly explains the extinction process once we start releasing methane clathrate from our coastal shelves. New research shows we begin this release process once we reach 5°C and by 6°C, it is in full bloom.) 

Because methane released as a gas from methane clathrate is 86 times more potent than carbon as a temperature increasing greenhouse gas, it will rapidly spike up the average global temperatures once again. The following is a methane graph (found at https://www.methanelevels.org)in which you can see how total atmospheric methane levels from all sources have exponentially skyrocketed, particularly during the last 50 years.

 

If methane also continues to rise to help push us toward the carbon 600 ppm tipping point and an average global temperature of 5°C, it will eventually bring about the extinction of most if not all of humanity (70-90%) and the end of civilization as we know it.

(Please note: There is also a concerted effort by the fracking industry to prevent the accurate measurement of methane in the atmosphere to keep the growing total methane release amounts from the fracking process hidden from the public.) When you add in the effects of methane (measured in part as CO2e,) for raising our temperature along with the impact of carbon, we are probably already well above our current carbon 414 ppm [around 430 CO2e+].) 

Reason 15: The publicly unknown effects of the soon crossed two extinction-evoking global warming tipping points. The general public has been kept unaware that unless we hit or come very close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and staying below carbon 425-450 ppm, there is no mathematical way to prevent crossing the carbon 500 ppm tipping point where all ice on earth will melt!

Beyond the math, there are numerous climate scientists who also believe that crossing the carbon 500 ppm is ALREADY inevitable because soon we will be passing other climate, biological and human system tipping points discussed on this page (and at this page.) This being locked into carbon 500 ppm already factor does not include the other accelerating global warming positive feedback loops occurring as you are reading this throughout our climate system. (Positive feedback loops enhance or amplify changes; this also tends to move a system away from its normal equilibrium state and make it more unstable. In this way, positive feedback loops are not too unlike tipping points.) 

If we do cross the near-final extinction tipping point of carbon 500 ppm, it is highly probable that not long afterward (about 20-30 years,) we will not be able to stop ourselves from reaching the carbon 600 ppm final extinction tipping point. 

The climate scientists who believe that we cannot prevent crossing carbon 500 ppm also believe that no matter what we do now, we also have already missed our window of control to prevent carbon 600 ppm. Furthermore, they believe that once we have crossed the carbon 500 ppm-level, we will not be able to keep from reaching the insane carbon 800 ppm-level. (Reaching carbon 800 ppm could also occur because of our adding more carbon in the atmosphere and because of the total accumulating effects of crossing more and more global warming tipping points, which will occur even more rapidly after crossing the carbon 500 ppm threshold.)

Our reading of the current science indicates that if we do not immediately reach the previously described 2025 radical fossil fuel reductions, we will cross the carbon 600 ppm-level. Even if we do achieve the necessary 2025 global fossil fuel cuts or, get very close to them, we still may be able to slow down crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point long enough to save a small portion of humanity and transfer needed infrastructure into global warming safer zones. 

At worst, even if we can not still prevent crossing the carbon 600 ppm level, we can at least, slow it down as well as some of the other worst coming global warming consequences. Slowing down crossing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point will be a Herculean task. It will take a massive global governmental cooperation and mobilization.  

There is some good news here. The probability that we can at least temporarily, slow and delay some of the 20 worst global warming consequences by hitting our 2025 targets is still achievable. More importantly, this will allow us more time to get prepared for the many global warming consequences we can no longer avoid no matter what we do!)

What do the two extinction-evoking tipping points mean to you right now?

It is essential to be realistic for your future planning. As you can see the probability that we will cross the carbon 500 and carbon 600 ppm tipping points are far too high. By 2025 if we have not made the radical fossil fuel cuts necessary the final window of opportunity to prevent passing the carbon 600 ppm extinction tipping point will close  

This is because of the:

a. temperature momentum already "baked" into the climate system (the existing carbon 414 ppm level already in the atmosphere,)

b. the additional three or more carbon particles per million we continue to add to the atmosphere each year (as we keep failing to reverse our fossil fuel use adequately,) and,

c. The additional global warming tipping points we will continue to cross at an even faster rate if we miss our 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets.

Never forget that at the 5°C average global temperature increase which will occur once we hit carbon 600 ppm and above, a large portion of humanity (70-90% or more,) will have died of starvation. This starvation will be due to the devastating effect that increased heat will have on crop failure.

This mass starvation will also come from global warming's other consequences or critical tipping points being crossed. Economies, governments, and societies also will collapse in many areas of the world between the 45th parallel north and the 45th parallel south. 

As we reach the carbon 500 ppm and carbon 600 ppm tipping point levels, we will cross into most dangerous later phases (4 and 5) of the 6-phase Climageddon Extinction Scenario and Countdown model (Climageddon Scenario.) At this point, please review the following Climageddon Extinction Scenario illustration starting from the bottom up! (It is the large diagram two sections down.)

The top of the diagram below shows you the later Climageddon Scenario consequences. The bottom shows you the earlier consequences.

At this point, it is necessary to take a slight detour before continuing with the reasons why the 2025 target failure is probable. This detour is because most individuals do not understand how and why will become our of our control if we cross the carbon 425, 500, and 600 ppm levels. 

How the three extinction-evoking tipping points of carbon 425, 500 and 600 ppm collectively further create the condition where global warming becomes out of humanity's future control

What most people really do not realize about crossing the above three extinction evoking tipping points of carbon 425, 500 and 600 ppm is that, at some point not long after passing them, it will be "too little too late" to make any real difference in avoiding the worst global warming catastrophes at some future point when we finally do begin making the required fossil fuel reductions. This loss of control is because soon after we cross the carbon 425 ppm climate cliff, we begin to trigger other natural climate system tipping points. After we cross carbon 425 ppm, we trigger larger naturally increasing methane releases from the tundra, permafrost, and ocean shelves. We will also eventually trigger massive additional natural carbon releases from our deep oceans, trees, and soils. 

Eventually, these natural system tipping points will also go into positive feedback loops with each other. These activated positive feedback loops will further intensify the crossing of more natural tipping points. 

These positive feedback loops within the climates natural systems increase average global temperature. This further triggers increased-heat caused releases of more naturally generated methane and carbon from the tundra and permafrost, which once again, further increases average global temperature in an endless cycle. Unfortunately, these increasing temperatures will go on and on until the Earth finally corrects itself hundreds or thousands of years in the future. 

Unlike humanity's remaining ability to control its use or not use of fossil fuels, if we cross the three previously mentioned natural climate system tipping points, the future is almost exclusively under nature's control! There is little to nothing we can do to keep the other natural sources of carbon and methane from becoming a runaway train of ever-increasing average global temperature. 

Humanity's inability to control these large and complex natural systems, tipping points and positive feedback loops IS the crucial reason why we cannot fail to meet the 2025 global targets or get very close to them. If we do, as soon as 2025, we will let any remaining control of the global warming extinction emergency slip out our hands for many human lifespans. 

We do not have until 2050 to make the required global fossil fuel reductions to save ourselves as many governments and fossil fuel companies want you to believe. We also do not have until 2040, 2035 or even 2030 to make the required fossil fuel reductions as many prominent but ill-informed environmental groups want you to believe.

We have only until 2025 to make the required global fossil fuel cuts to prevent going over the carbon 425 ppm climate cliff and losing all meaningful control of our global warming future! 

This emergency creates a 600 trillion dollar question hanging in the air. Why aren't the brightest minds in the world's intelligence agencies screaming at their national politicians about this nearly out of control emergency? Why aren't they making our politicians understand this is our last window of control to keep a super-destructive new global warming Pandora from getting out of her box? (600 trillion dollars plus is the estimate for the total global costs that we will occur if we survive, and if we go over the climate cliff and trigger the carbon 500 ppm near-extinction tipping point and the carbon 600 ppm final-extinction tipping point as discussed above.)

Why aren't our intelligence agencies (as well as the world's wealthiest individuals and corporations,) shaming our politicians into realizing that they have exposed ALL of humanity to an imminent and irrational extinction risk?

Why aren't these recognized as risk and threat levels that should NEVER be endured or justified? 

Why Climageddon awaits us if we miss the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets

The Global Warming and the Climageddon Scenario Cascading Meltdown illustration below reflects the unfolding natural progression of ever-worsening consequences, tipping points, and human system processes that will accelerate as the global warming emergency continues. These consequences, tipping points, and human systems will individually and collectively collide with each other.

This will cause them to adversely interact, which then will multiply and synergize many of each other's most harmful effects. It is these ever-increasing, heat-fueled cumulative interactions among and between worsening global warming consequences, tipping points, and human systems that will make almost every one of them worse faster and faster.

This illustration below illuminates the final core processes that will lead to our mass extinction as well as into global economic, political, and social chaos. Its three levels of global warming interactions (consequences, tipping points, and human systems,) highlight a continuous onslaught of crisis and catastrophes that we are already beginning to experience. These levels of interaction foretell our eventual extinction.

Starting reading this illustration rom the bottom because that is how Climageddon will unfold. 

More about the carbon 600 ppm extinction level tipping point

When we reach the carbon 600 ppm tipping point, we trigger the final processes that will bring about the extinction of as much as 70 to 90% of humanity (if not more and as soon as 2063-2072, or earlier.) Where in that 2063-2072 time range, we will reach carbon 600 ppm will be determined by which tipping points we cross and how much we add more carbon to our atmosphere each year.)  

But, extinction will not begin only when we reach carbon 600 ppm. Global civilization will have begun collapsing and mass die-offs will occur long before we have reached the carbon 600 ppm tipping point level. At or near carbon 600 ppm the unlucky survivors will enter into an ecological and climate hell. A new dark age will make the survivors of the following centuries curse us and wish they were dead.

(The global warming consequences, tipping points, and human system factors (shown above,) will be interacting and colliding with each other in 6 distinct phases and waves. At some point, after you finish this document, we strongly recommend that you read about the 6 phases and waves of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario and countdown here. In detail, it describes the timetables and consequences of our global warming future if we miss the 2025 targets.)

As if the proceeding reasons alone are not enough to prove that global warming is already out of our meaningful control for the next 30-50 years, here is another reason.

Reason 16: No one is driving the "car." 

We do not have a global government overseeing the wellbeing of humanity and the Earth as a whole. What we have now is competing nations seeking their own selfish best interests most frequently at the expense of other countries, peoples, and the environment. 

Cars in motion without a driver always eventually crash.

It is unlikely that we will establish a global government with legislative, executive, and judicial powers working for the benefit of humanity as a whole within the next 3-5 decades if ever. Consequently, it is near certain that will we not get all of the needed global warming extinction prevention actions listed in Part 3 of the Job One Plan done in time.

Reason 17: The adverse effects of climate momentum and inertia factors which also discourage public changes. Because of complex climate momentum and inertia factors which will delay experiencing the results of any fossil fuel reductions we make today by 20-30 years or more. This will make the painful changes we need to make today without seeing results for decades far less likely to occur.

Politicians telling their citizens they will need to make painful sacrifices now and not see any results of those sacrifices for decades is not likely to be a popular or successful process. (The many complex climate momentum and inertia factors are discussed in detail in the book Climageddon.)

The Final Shocker: Why our governments must work together and mass mobilize to achieve or get very close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets NOW or NO ONE will survive!

As if the above was not bad enough, there are other hyper-critical factors that need to be carefully considered and planned for in the nightmare post climate cliff carbon 500 and carbon 600 ppm global warming scenario that we are now all facing: 

1. As if the proceeding was not enough to convince any rational individual that they need to do everything they can to get their governments to do everything described in Part 3 of the Job One Plan to slow and lessen global warming so they can survive, there is still more very bad news. As global warming worsens to its near-extinction levels, we will also have to deal with the following humanity and civilization ending realities:

a. Nuclear reactors in global warming unsafe zones between the 45th parallel north and south (about 400,) will no longer be able to be kept secure or maintained by stable or functioning governments as global warming worsens and many of these governments enter social chaos and fail. If these nuclear reactors go critical and meltdown, it will not matter where you migrate to in the world.

No location or bunker will be safe from the massive continuous fallout and radiation from scores if not hundreds of reactors that will eventually go critical and spew radiation for centuries! The same holds true for all biological and chemical weapons or toxic chemicals stored in any areas with collapsing or collapsed governments. Once those areas are generally abandoned and are lawless and in chaos and no longer properly managed by functioning governments, these world-ending toxic commodities will slowly leak out or be seized and poison and kill areas far beyond their original locations.

b. Critical food production above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south will be extremely limited because the general soil quality and then lower seasonal sunlight amounts will be grossly inadequate using traditional or existing methods to grow enough food for the desperate billions of climagees migrating to these areas. Somehow the governments of the world will have to cooperate to justly and carefully limit how many people can occupy the very limited global warming safer zones and still be fed adequately.

Trying to carefully limit the number of people who can inhabit the few global warming safer zones by force or special lottery will of itself create unimaginable mass social chaos, panic, and conflict that will keep those living in the global warming safer zones under continuous threat and uncertainty. Anyone living in those very limited safer zones will only have temporary relief.

c. On the other hand, if you do not allow enough diverse individuals from the global warming unsafe zones to migrate, there will not be enough human genetic diversity to survive the waves of new diseases that will burn through the far north or far south because of thousands of-year-old unknown and known pathogens released from the melting permafrost (which humanity has never seen before and has no immunity.) Additionally, these global warming safer zones will also be under threat from new pathogens or existing pathogens that are always mutating. Only adequate genetic diversity will be our best guarantee that at least someone will survive.

d. and finally, in order for any of us to survive in any way close to what we are used to, the world’s key infrastructure for a modern functioning civilization to continue must be moved within the next 5-15 years using all of the relative political, economic and social stability which still remains. This means we need to begin immediately moving key industries like medical, pharmaceutical, manufacturing, etc. as well as key and adequate administrative, policing and other social structures into the global warming safe zones above the 45th parallel north or below the 45th parallel south. 

At some point, even the most optimistic person will recognize nothing will save them from this global warming meltdown monster if we don't get global fossil fuel usage under control by 2025. From that total of everything they and we are facing, they will also realize that we either cooperate and work together or die together.

"We are no longer in just an emergency to prevent global warming from getting worse. We are in an all-out war to prevent mass extinction as soon as within the next 30 to 50 years.

As long as we keep thinking about preventing global warming from getting worse or just dealing with "climate change," we are continuing to focus on the wrong target and we will most likely fail in preventing our own extinction. We and our governments need to shift our total focus to the sole goal of preventing global warming mass extinction within our lifetimes. This is because that is exactly what we are now facing." Lawrence Wollersheim

If you have not read about the six phases of the Climageddon Scenario, which take you through the painful details level by level as humanity moves closer to extinction, please do so soon by clicking here.

The hard decision for why must we press on and meet the 2025 targets in spite of all the challenges?

The most important reason that we must press on and meet the 2025 targets is simple and tremendously powerful. If we do hit the 2025 targets, as much as 50% of humanity suffer and die due to starvation over a relatively short period (1-2 decades.) As horrible as much as 50% of humanity suffering and dying is, this outcome is still far better than having 70-90% (or even all of humanity,) suffer and die over over the next 3-5 decades if we fail to reach or come very close to the 2025 targets. 

There are two things we can always be sure of in this global warming extinction emergency

In spite of all of the challenges and adverse global warming outcomes that are possible above, the single constant truth for the best possible outcome for humanity is that; the faster and more we reduce global fossil fuel use toward meeting the 2025 targets:

a. the more people that will survive to carry on humanity, life and our beautiful civilization into the future, and

b. surviving future generations will suffer far less from an ever-increasing sequence of escalating global warming consequences and catastrophes.

In Summary

We have wasted decades of scientific warnings, and now our global warming bill has come due. The combined consequences of escalating global warming will most probably cause massive biological, economic, political and social collapses and will end the lives of as much as 70 to 90% of humanity in as little as the next 30 to 50 years." 

Because of all of the above reasons, unfortunately, we will most probably not reach the life-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Additional, based upon global warming's many coming unavoidable consequences, global warming is already out of our meaningful control for at least the next 30-50 + years. 

Worse yet, consequences such as global warming-related mass starvation and mass migration are not 20, 30, or 50 years away. Unfortunately, famine is already happening to millions. Soon it will be happening to tens of millions and then to hundreds and hundreds of millions more over the next 10 to 20 years. Within 30-50 years, billions will need to migrate or die of starvation and the other global warming consequences.

Because of all of the above as well as the other global warming caused or aggravated consequences, if we do not radically and immediately and radically reduce our fossil fuel burning behaviors by getting as close as possible to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, crop failures, mass starvation, and mass migrations will continue to get worse and eventually affect the majority of humanity if not all of humanity.

Equally important to understand is that --- this does not mean everything is hopeless and we should give up our efforts to improve what we can. There is still much we can do to slow and lessen escalating global warming to save more of humanity for a more extended period, and to give us more time to prepare and adapt so that hopefully a few us will survive. To help you do these things we have provided a link to the 4 part Job One for Humanity Plan for how you can help slow down this escalating extinction emergency as well as prepare for and adapt to it with the time we have left. Our Job One Plan will also provide information on how to protect your family, assets, business from the many unavoidable global warming catastrophes that will be arriving soon. 

For information and practical actions for what you can still do to help the world get as close as possible to the reach the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets and make the best of a desperate situation for yourself and your family and business, please click here.

You are not alone

Based upon the above, many of you will decide that even though we still theoretically have enough time left to reach the 2025 targets, we will not do so. Many of our staff, website members, and visitors have come to the same conclusion. 

They see that our governments do not have the understanding or the courage to make the tough decisions that are now necessary. They also understand our governments are currently doing virtually nothing that will give a reasonable person hope we will meet the life-critical 2025 targets.

Realizing this, they then focus their influence, attention, and resources on the parts of the Job One Plan where they believe they can still do the most good. This way, they do not also waste valuable time, energy, and resources fighting battles that cannot be won. 

Most individuals who have come to this painful conclusion concerning our ability to reach the 2025 targets immediately start Part 1 of the Job One Plan.

So that more of us can survive longer and suffer less, we at Job One will continue to do everything we can to support lowering total global fossil fuel use as fast as is possible. This way, we will have more time to prepare for what is coming, and more of us can have meaningful and enjoyable lives for as long as is possible. Many staff and volunteers within Job One are also taking actions to prepare and adapt ourselves and our families for what we can no longer avoid.

We should be able to keep most of humanity from extinction by immediately enacting ALL of the critical actions described in part three of the Job One Plan. 

For information on the exact tipping points and consequences of the global warming extinction emergency, click here. 

For more information on the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, which we cannot miss, click here.

There are other very challenging reasons why we won't make the 2025 targets in time. These reasons involve different climate, human, and biological system inertias and momentums to complex to discuss in a short article. These additional reasons are found on other pages on the Joboneforhumanity.org website or in the new book Climageddon published by our non-profit organization. 

 

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