The World's Governments and Corporations Have Been Blindsided by the IPCC's "Perfect Day" Climate Change Problem and, Humanity's Survival Depends Upon Solving it!

The world's leading authority on climate change, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC,] is not accurately telling our governments what they need to know to save us from total extinction because of...

the IPCC's "Perfect Day" problem.

Our governments are in serious climate risk analysis trouble because they rely upon the IPCC's "authoritative" climate consequence scenario projections and remedies. Moreover, the world's military, intelligence agencies, hedge funds, investment banks, stock or commodity markets, foundations, philanthropies, think tanks, and national and international reserve banks all use the same IPCC climate research, predictions, and remedies for their climate risk analysis.

All of the previously mentioned entities are being dangerously weakened by what is known as the IPCC's climate computer modeling "Perfect Day" problem. 

The Perfect Day problem and how it works 

The IPCC uses computer modeling to predict future climate consequences and calculate how much fossil fuel we must reduce globally to keep ourselves safe. Every 3 to 5 years, the IPCC creates 4-7 updated best to worst climate prediction scenarios and what we must do to prevent them from occurring. 

The governments, organizations, corporations, and individuals that rely upon these IPCC climate scenarios to create their internal climate risk analyses are being told by the IPCC and their governments these climate scenarios are reasonably accurate projections of probable future climate conditions. But, unfortunately, the truth is they are far from it.

The IPCC's climate computer models actually reflect "Perfect Day" climate scenarios far more than they reflect more probable climate scenarios. The IPCC's climate computer models are plagued with this "Perfect Day" problem because they seldom include most of the following climate modeling factors. These are critical climate-related but missing factors that regularly and routinely occur both within and between the complex adaptive systems within our climate's multiple systems and subsystems. 

The IPPC's climate computer models and multiple predictive scenarios fail to capture:

a. many of the interconnections and interdependencies within and between the climate system and its subsystems. 

b. most of the primary and secondary tipping points within and between the climate system and its subsystems. 

c. many powerful self-reinforcing feedback loops within and between the climate systems and their subsystems. 

d. many critical points of no return within and between the climate systems and their subsystems. (These points of no return signal coming tipping points and dangerous system crashes and collapses.) And,

e. most of the non-linear cause and effect relationships within and between the climate systems and its subsystems. (Non-linear cause and effect relationships are a regular aspect of the behavior of complex adaptive systems.)

The critical thing to know about items a - e above is that they embrace thousands of essential and utterly unaccounted-for climate factors that are also at play in creating reliable and probable climate predictions and risk assessments. Moreover, many of the climate factors listed in a-e above are so powerful that just a single one can radically alter the trajectory of any of the IPCC's current prediction scenarios.

For example, suppose the IPCC has predicted that the average global temperature will rise to 2 degrees Celcius above pre-industrial levels by 2040 in one of their multiple prediction scenarios. Now factor in that they did not add to that computer model essential tipping points, feedback loops, or other non-linear cause and effect factors within the climate system and its subsystems. In that case, this a-e omission could quickly move their predicted average global temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius by 2040 (with all of its associated risks and consequences) to far more than 2 degrees Celsius far sooner than 2040!  

Worse yet, the world's political, corporate and the leaders of the other organizations mentioned earlier do not know about the Perfect day issue, which is that the IPCC predictions and their remedial climate recommendations do not reliably computer model the contexts, relationships, processes, and many ongoing transformations within the interacting climate, human and biological systems, and subsystems. 

This "Perfect Day" problem means that the REAL climate risk and threat probabilities for humanity's climate future are grossly underestimated. Unfortunately, this also means that our governments, corporations and the leaders of the other organizations mentioned earlier are ALL currently operating on grossly inadequate climate risk assessments. As a result, our current climate condition's actual risk levels and fundamental uncertainties are far higher than what we are being told. Consequently, we are not preparing for our actual climate risks and uncertainties or managing them adequately. 

At Job One, we estimate that if you take all of the factors in a-e above (and all the IPCC's other political, prediction modeling, and summary report problems described in the links further down this page), we should treat the IPCC's predictions and climate remedies as being underestimated on the average by about 20-40%. This means we are underestimating both the severity of consequences and when these consequences will arrive by about 20-40%. 

If one makes these 20-40% reasonable allowances for non-perfect day items in a-e above and other IPPC problems, the world's governments and corporations should be panicking. But, on the other hand, if they were making appropriate allowances for the many missing climate factors and risks, these corporations would demand our governments immediately declare an international climate extinction emergency and cooperate globally to enforce the fossil fuel reductions needed to at least save some small portion of humanity. (If you would like to see the chain of climate consequences and their severity with adjusted timelines when making allowances for the IPPC's problems, click here.)

There is so much missing from the IPCC's climate modeling that any organization that uses them must immediately reevaluate their climate risks and adjust them significantly to the negative. With this new modeling problem information, they will then be able to create a more realistic climate risk and threat analysis for their specific operations and conditions. 

Here is another way to grasp the seriousness of the just the Perfect Day problem. Ask yourself, when was the last time you had a perfect day, or when everything went perfectly according to your plan? Building our plans or risk analysis and everything going perfectly is the perfect plan to fail.

Furthermore, the IPCC knowingly is trying to sell us their grossly incomplete "Perfect Day" climate prediction models and climate remedies as reasonably, reliable, and probable representations of our climate future when they are not even close!

Other critical IPCC problems

In addition to the "Perfect Day" problem described above, below you will find essential links on the history of the IPCC predictions and research. These links will provide context for the relationships, processes, and climate research transformations within the IPPC.

You will learn precisely how the IPCC constructs and calculates its climate consequence scenarios and recommended climate change remedies. Unfortunately, you will discover that many other serious problems are going on within the IPCC, which further calls into question the reliability and risk analysis usefulness of the IPCC's prediction scenarios and climate remedies.

Click here to understand the long-term history of the IPCC underestimating the consequences, timeframes, and the needed global fossil fuel reduction targets by as much as 20-40% or more.

Click here to see precisely how the IPCC "cooked the books" and grossly skewed the current IPCC global fossil fuel reduction calculations by including unproven and non-existent "carbon sucking unicorn" technology into their projections. 

Click here to see the eleven key climate change tipping points that have been mostly excluded from the IPCC calculations on how much fossil fuel use we must reduce each year globally. 

Click here to see the four key reasons why the IPCC's 26 global climate conferences have failed to produce results or legitimate global fossil fuel reduction targets.

Click here to see the REAL 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and why we must get close to a 75% reduction in total global fossil fuel use (oil, natural gas, coal, etc.) by 2025, not the far, far less net-zero emission levels they have pledged by 2050 or 2040! (In the technical notes at the bottom of the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction specification page, you will see each calculation and compensation for the various factors that make up the required correct global fossil fuel reduction numbers.)

What can you do about the Perfect Day problem drastically impeding our progress on effective climate solutions

1. If you have any contacts with power at any of the following organizations, you can email them a copy of this issue. It would help if you also referred them to this page. This page makes considerably better (but not perfect) allowances for the IPCC's Perfect Day problem by more realistically adjusting climate consequence scenarios and timeframes to include more of the above a-e factors.

Here are the key organizations to reach out to so they can update their internal critical climate risk analysis, so they become a better reflection of today's actual climate reality. This risk updating process will also assist them in doing what is logical and necessary to help better manage our climate extinction emergency. 

There may be other entities you will think of as well. 

World governments, military, intelligence agencies, hedge funds, investment banks, stock or commodity markets, foundations, philanthropies, think tanks, national or international reserve banks, and corporations dealing with essential commodities and infrastructure needed for the future.

2. Get started with the Job One for Humanity Climate and Global Crises Resilience Plan.

 

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