(Special Note: At the end of this article, you will find a link to a comprehensive four-part plan for what you can do to help manage global warming. If you do not understand the role of carbon in the atmosphere or how the burning of fossil fuels causes greenhouse gases and rising temperatures, click here for a quick illustration. To counterbalance these disruptive facts, in this article, you will also find a link to the many surprising benefits that you will experience as we work toward resolving this great challenge, opportunity, and evolutionary adventure.)
Why are we continually being given so many different and incorrect global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines by our governments and the media? The many current government or UN, or other-promoted 2050, 2040, 2035 competing global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines are dangerously wrong. These wrong targets and deadlines are also promoted by many of our most trusted environmental groups.
In this article, you will learn more about how and why the many false global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines have been foisted upon the public. This article will disclose the dangerous global fossil fuel reduction deception game. This game is forwarded by wealthy individuals, fossil fuel-related corporations, many governmental agencies, and fossil fuel-dependent nations.
Below you will learn about how underestimated consequences and timeframes are used to create false global fossil fuel reduction calculations. These same dangerous reduction underestimations will prevent us from achieving the urgently required and currently correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.
After completing this article, we invite you to decide for yourself if the public is being intentionally deceived about the real fossil fuel reductions needed to save us in time. This deception is important to know about because using incorrect global fossil fuel reduction targets and deadlines will lead humanity directly into mass human, animal, and biological extinction by mid-century.
And finally, in this article, you will discover that the many false hopes that the public currently holds about our global warming future are in part, because of the underestimated consequences timeframes [described below.] This current fossil fuel reduction underestimation factor is a powerful additional barrier standing in the way of humanity solving its current global warming extinction emergency.
How did we ever get in this mess?
There is an old saying that "you can not reach your desired goal unless you know where you are starting from and, you can see all the barriers in the way of reaching your goal."
Before moving on to exploring the global warming solutions found in the free Job One Plan, it is wise to examine how we have wasted 35 years of warnings and put ourselves into this untenable global warming extinction emergency. This way, we now have a better opportunity to set the correct global fossil fuel reduction targets, resolve global warming, and avoid the same mistakes.
There are many reasons why we have ignored over 35 years of valid warnings about the 20 major consequences of escalating global warming. A key reason is that the recognized world authority on global warming, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,) has failed to adequately inform us as to the real risks and urgency of our crisis. (1)
Before discussing the numerous problems with the IPCC’s global warming information and consequence predictions, it is necessary to frame the challenge to the IPCC’s reports appropriately. In the criticisms below, we are not in any way criticizing the thousands of individual climate scientists, many of whom at their own expense provide uncensored, accurate, and up-to-date global warming research to the IPCC’s bureaucrats.
However, those IPCC bureaucrats are the individuals who, through a highly constrained administrative process, analyze, interpret, and create the final reports and predictions. What follows also does not question the good intentions of even the highly-constrained IPCC bureaucrats caught in the slow and conservative bureaucracy of an international entity, which must not only seek member consensus and funding but also avoid panicking the public.
Additionally, do not misconstrue the following criticism of the IPCC's bureaucratic and administrative process results in any way as a criticism of the underlying valid science of global warming being presented by the thousands of hard-working and honest climate scientists contributing their research to the IPCC summary analysis reports or the vast 97 percent (2) consensus of climate scientists who, as a whole, agree that global warming has human causation and one of the largest human causes is the burning of fossil fuels.
Now that you have this background, let's look at the IPCC's many calculation, estimation and analysis, and interpretation problems.
In their 5-7 year climate update reports and predictions for politicians and policymakers, the IPCC has a repeated history of significantly underestimating how much of a problem global warming could become, as well as its time frames. (3) Before expanding upon the IPCC’s climate data underestimation problem, it is essential to understand how they create their 5-7 year global warming and prediction scenario updates for the world’s politicians and policymakers.
What surprises many individuals is that the IPCC itself does not do original global warming research. Working as unpaid volunteers, thousands of scientists from around the globe sift through the most current scientific literature on global warming and the climate. After completing this review, these unpaid scientists identify trends, write a draft report, and submit it to the IPCC.
Next, the IPCC reviews the submitted research from these scientists. This typically takes five to seven years to complete. Then, in a tediously slow and bureaucratic process, the IPCC creates comprehensive reports and assessments, including global warming prediction scenarios. Then, in the near to last step, other scientists once again take the assembled draft and review and revise it as needed.
Finally, a summary for national politicians and policymakers is written. This condenses the science even further. This new and final summary report is then subjected to a line-by-line review and possible revision by non-scientist national representatives from more than 100 world governments—all of whom must approve the final summary document before it is signed and presented to the public.
Now that you understand the process for how the IPCC creates its reports, the following will not seem so surprising. A growing number of studies (referenced elsewhere,) claim that across two decades and thousands of pages of IPCC climate reports, the IPCC has consistently understated the rate and intensity of global warming, as well as the danger that it represents. (4)
Since the IPCC 2007 assessment, these studies have shown that the speed and ferocity at which the climate is destabilizing are at the extreme edge of, or are outpacing, IPCC projections on many fronts, including temperature rise, carbon emissions, sea level rise, continental ice-sheet melt, Arctic sea ice decline, ocean acidification, and thawing tundra.
One glaring example of IPCC underestimation can be found in the IPCC’s previous 2007 report (5) that concluded the Arctic would not lose its summer ice before 2070 at the earliest. But the ice pack has shrunk far faster than any scenario IPCC scientists felt politicians and policymakers should consider.
Just a few years after that report, a new study predicted that by 2016-2020, the Arctic's Northwest Passage will be completely ice-free during the summers. This means that in 2007, the IPCC was off by an incredible 50-54 years on a key climate prediction over an estimation prediction period of only 63 years!
Another glaring example of the dangerous IPCC underestimation problem surfaced from James Hansen, the former NASA scientist who originally warned the world about global warming nearly 30 years ago. Hansen's new study says sea levels could rise by as much as 10 feet (3 meters) by 2050.
The IPCC has repeatedly and consistently predicted that sea levels should rise only 3 feet (0.9 meters) by 2100. That's a 60-70% underestimation by the IPCC occurring 50 years earlier! Over its history, the IPCC’s global warming consequence and timetable scenario predictions are regularly underestimated by anywhere from 25 to 40%.
Why the IPCC’s global warming underestimation problem is critical to you, your business, and your nation’s future
All underestimation by the IPCC is dangerous. First, because the organization is treated as the most recognized authority on global warming and is charged with advising national politicians and policymakers on the most relevant and accurate climate science so they can make the necessary laws and policy changes to keep us safe.
Next, the IPCC’s overly conservative reading and underestimation problems means that national governments, businesses, and the public will be grossly unprepared and blindsided by the more rapid onset of higher flooding, extreme storms, drought, and other global warming impacts and consequences far beyond what they are currently prepared for. (6) Worse yet, a society blind to the full range and speed of potential global warming outcomes can remain unconscious of or apathetic to the growing emergency, causing them to push the hard but necessary global warming reduction decisions farther and farther off into the future.
Probably the greatest loss caused by IPCC’s underestimation problem is that it quells, if not removes, the appropriate sense of urgency essential to motivating the world and its nations to deal with escalating global warming’s present and future threats. For example, what if the global warming disasters projected by the IPCC to start arriving in 2060-2080 begin in 2030-2040? If that happens, we won’t be prepared for the true scale, severity, and frequency of the disasters to come. (Graphs shown below in the underestimation correction section will help you visualize what this means in shortened time frames.)
Conflicts of interest and the IPCC’s underestimation problem
Because the IPCC's final summary report is subjected to a line-by-line review/revision by representatives from more than 100 world governments, all of whom must individually approve and sign off on the final summary document before it is presented to the public, it is only reasonable to consider that inherent national conflicts of interest will also act to water down, delay, or delete those sections of each global warming report that directly and significantly impact the overall military, security, economics, or other key well-being factors of the sign-off nation.
For example, countries like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, the United States, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iran have huge portions of their annual gross domestic product (GDP) dependent upon producing and/or exporting fossil fuels. If there were a sudden and significant mandated reduction in use of global fossil fuel, some of these countries, particularly the ones with large national debts or without large financial reserves like Russia, Venezuela, the United States, Iraq, and Iran, could plunge into rapid economic decline and in some cases, possibly even social and political unrest or collapse. (7) Unless something shifts radically, these serious conflicts of interest in sign-off nations will be a continuous source of watered-down or missing key facts.
The IPCC is also playing wildly fast and loose in calculations and deadlines for how much we need to reduce global fossil fuel emissions
Unconscionable groupthink illusions and delusions were used and held by our global warming authorities at the most recent Paris Climate Conference concerning possibilities of currently nonexistent atmospheric carbon removal technologies, which may or may not be discovered and successfully implemented until sometime after 2050!
Instead of being honest with the public and telling us we needed to immediately make difficult and costly fossil fuel use reductions and sacrifices for ourselves, our children, and future generations, the world's leading global warming authorities took the cowardly and easy way out. As the essential part of their calculations for the critical reductions of fossil fuel carbon pollution in our atmosphere, our global warming authorities have included, used, and even relied upon the projected potential effects of currently non-existing atmospheric carbon removing technology.
Inventing this atmospheric carbon removal "miracle cure" occurring sometime after 2050 was the only way to force their current atmospheric carbon reduction calculations to ever work to keep global warming at or below the acknowledged and very dangerous 2° celsius level by 2100.
These miracle cure calculations also allowed them to tell us all to go on as we are now without making significant changes or sacrifices. These miracle cure calculations were politically correct, expeditious, and allowed the world's global warming authorities to make everyone believe the most dangerous falsehood possible about our future. These miracle cure new technology calculations were fully relied upon for our current reduction planning in spite of these new technologies:
not currently existing,
impossible to scale up adequately in time for removing massive amounts of atmospheric carbon, which are conservatively estimated at about 100 gigatons just to keep us below a 2-degree Celsius temperature rise. (1 gigaton or metric gigaton [unit of mass] is equal to 1,000,000,000 metric tons. 100 gigatons would equal 100 billion metric tons.)
- catastrophic projected side effects that would make their desperate use far worse than the original problem they were intended to solve!
The near-complete reliance upon these non-existent new technologies by the world's global warming authorities to miraculously save us at the last moment is both irresponsible and irrational beyond belief! These projections and calculations are especially unconscionable because the survival of humanity is held in the balance by the validity of these calculations.
Worse yet, these illusionary calculations have given the public a false sense of safety. They have stolen the necessary and accurate sense of urgency about the real dangers that are here today, not some time off in the second half of the 21st century.
Without the correct sense of urgency, the public has been prevented from both understanding and making the critical changes that should have been made decades ago to prevent the current global warming extinction emergency.
In summary, you can not trust the IPCC's calculations and deadlines for how much we need to reduce global fossil fuel emissions. In their additionally deceptive calculations for the needed fossil fuel reduction levels and deadlines, they have allowed for new technologies (that might not even exist until after 2050,) to suck out all of the fossil fuel carbon from the atmosphere and save humanity at the last minute.
We strongly recommend you click here now to far more read about the IPCC's "magical carbon sucking unicorns" and ridiculous current compensatory calculations for a nonexistent new technology. You will be shocked and terrified by how desperate this future carbon capture allowance calculation actually is!
Please see the following for additional verification on the truth of the above section concerning the above IPCC’s new technology illusions and delusions:
(See Wikipedia contributors. "Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage," Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage&oldid=801806293 (accessed January 18, 2018).)
(See Abby Rabinowitz and Amanda Simson. “The Dirty Secret of the World’s Plan to Avert Climate Disaster.” Wired. December 10, 2017. https://www.wired.com/story/the-dirty-secret-of-the-worlds-plan-to-avert-climate-disaster/)
(See Jason Hickel. “The Paris climate deal won’t save us – our future depends on de-growth.” The Guardian. July 3, 2017. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/jul/03/paris-climate-deal-wont-work-our-future-depends-degrowth)
(Also see that the mathematical, scientific, and mechanical feasibility to adequately scale up the non-existent miracle technology as well as the unknown negative side effects of this non-existent, “miracle technology” has already been debunked by respected climate scientists like Kevin Anderson.)
(See the new Climageddon book published by Job One for Humanity. It also describes in detail all of the dangerous groupthink illusions and delusions currently held by the world's leading global warming authorities.)
The IPCC’s most fatal flaw and shocker
The previously mentioned underestimation problems with the IPCC are not even its worst global warming data integrity problem. It also has a problem with its global warming tipping point education and disclosure scenarios.
To fully appreciate how important that fatal flaw is, it is necessary to review a bit of basic logic. There is a principle in logic that if all or a significant part of the foundational premise upon which you build a theory or solution is insufficient or false, the consequent theory or solution created will also be insufficient or false either in total or to a significant degree.
Keep this principle of logic in mind as there is a giant data analysis fatal flaw in the premise upon which the IPCC builds its global warming risk analysis for its global warming consequence prediction scenarios and timetables. To many individuals who are well-informed about global warming, this lack of cognizance by the IPCC about this second tipping point issue is seen as the one fatal flaw that will most quickly force us unknowingly into the later phases of the new Climageddon Scenario global warming prediction model.
Let’s review the four newest global warming prediction scenarios provided in 2014 by the IPCC to the world’s politicians and policymakers. It will provide foundational evidence for the biggest flaw in the IPCC’s global warming risk analysis process and consequence prediction scenarios.
The following four global warming prediction scenarios of the IPCC are based on the assumption that we have no major climate system surprises such as going over more global warming tipping points. Those predictions are:
Scenario One: Global warming is, at the most optimistic of projections, only a 2° Celsius increase by 2100 (3.6° degrees Fahrenheit).
Scenario Two: Global warming is, at a more likely projection, a 3° Celsius increase by 2100 (5.4° degrees Fahrenheit).
Scenario Three: Global warming is, at the less optimistic of IPCC projections, only a 4° Celsius increase by 2100 (7.2° degrees Fahrenheit).
Scenario Four: Global warming is, at the least optimistic of IPCC projections, a 6° or more Celsius increase by 2100 (10.8°+ degrees Fahrenheit).
This graph shows four different trajectories for greenhouse gas concentrations. These representative concentration pathways (RCPs) show four potential climate futures. The lowest pathway, RCP2.6 (the bold blue line) shows an average global temperature increase of 1° Celsius. The highest pathway, RCP8.5, shows an average increase of 2.0° to 3.7° Celsius. Source: IPCC, 2013, FAQ 12.1, Figure 1. (8)
From each of the four IPCC prediction scenarios, what is missing and what has been unwisely omitted is the essential inclusion of tipping point calculations. The IPCC’s four prediction scenarios rest on the assumption that we will never go over any global warming tipping points in any of the climate’s major or minor systems or subsystems.
Planning for everything going perfectly is the perfect plan for failure!
In effect, what the IPCC has done is to all but remove or ignore high-impact, often unrecoverable global warming, climate, human, and biological system tipping point variables that should have been included in an accurate and complete risk spectrum analysis. Without including and considering these critical high-impact tipping point consequence events in their master risk analysis, the IPCC has not met the minimum essential data inclusion threshold necessary to create a valid and complete global warming risk analysis that could be used to properly inform our politicians and policymakers, as well as the general public, of all real and significant current and future risks and timetables their nations and people face.
Correcting the underestimation in the current IPCC future average global temperature projections
It is useful to now update the IPCC’s four most recent 2014 average global temperature and time frame predictions (listed previously) while compensating for their regular underestimations of about 25-40%. Please keep in mind the IPCC’s 2014 prediction scenarios also do not include any calculations or adjustments for crossing more global warming tipping points during their prediction scenario periods.
Here is what the IPCC’s temperature and arrival date estimates might look like if their underestimation bias were corrected:
In IPCC Scenario 1, their most optimistic projection, they say we will have only a 2° Celsius increase by 2100 (3.6° Fahrenheit). (Please note that in all 4 graphs below, CS stands for Climageddon Scenario and the 25% and 40% are underestimation correction levels for the 4 IPCC prediction levels.)
At the 25% underestimation level, this means that we will reach 2.5° Celsius (4.5° Fahrenheit) about 21 years sooner than they predict will occur—at about 2079. This puts us in the latter part of Phase 1 of the Climageddon Scenario, or more likely, in the beginning of Phase 2.
At the 40% underestimation level, we will reach 2.9° Celsius (5.2°+ Fahrenheit) roughly 34 years sooner than they predict—at about 2066. This puts us somewhere within Phase 2 of the Climageddon Scenario.
In IPCC Scenario 2, their more likely projection, they say we will have only a 3° Celsius increase by 2100 (5.4° Fahrenheit).
At the 25% underestimation level, this means we will reach 3.5° Celsius (6.9° Fahrenheit) about 21 years sooner than they predict—at about 2079. This puts us in or near Phase 3 of the Climageddon Scenario.
At the 40% underestimation level, we will reach 4.2° Celsius (7.5° Fahrenheit) about 34 years sooner than they predict—at about 2066. This puts us in or near Phase 4 of the Climageddon Scenario.
In IPCC Scenario 3, their less optimistic projection, they say we will have only a 4° Celsius increase by 2100 (7.2°+ Fahrenheit).
At the 25% underestimation level, this means we will reach 5° Celsius (about 9° Fahrenheit) 21 years sooner than they predict—at about 2079. This puts us in or near the chaos and collapse of Phase 5 of the Climageddon Scenario.
At the 40% underestimation level, we will reach 5.6° Celsius (10° Fahrenheit) 34 years sooner than they predict—at about 2066. This also puts us in or closer to phase 5 of the Climageddon Scenario.
In IPCC Scenario 4, their least optimistic projection, they say we will have only a 6° or more Celsius increase by 2100 (10.8°+ Fahrenheit). A 6° Celsius increase in average global temperature is the end of most human life as we know it.
At the 25% underestimation level, this means that we will reach 7.8° Celsius (about 13.5° Fahrenheit) at about 2079. This will put us well into Phase 5 of the Climageddon Scenario.
At the 40% underestimation level, we will reach 8.4° Celsius (about 15° Fahrenheit) —at about 2066. This could put us in Phase 5 of the Climageddon Scenario faster than anyone is ready for.
(Please note: In the four corrected IPCC graphs above, we are using recalculated temperature estimates to extrapolate approximate placement positions for the graph’s new projected timelines. Rather than show the precise new time frames of a particular recalculated temperature, these four graphs illustrate relative differences from the IPCC’s predicted temperatures and time frames. These four graphs additionally point toward how unanticipated higher temperatures will also dramatically accelerate consequence arrival times and increase consequence severity. It is difficult to precisely recalculate new timeframes with temperature calculations only, and because there is always a delay in the actual time that it takes to get to higher temperatures because of inertia and momentum factors in climate systems and subsystems.)
How misinforming the public about our real state of global warming helps allow it to occur
The unfortunate, widespread, and gross misinformation given to the public about how bad global warming has become and that it is now almost out of control has occurred in significant part because of:
major miscalculations from the world’s leading global warming authorities by about 20-40% or more concerning how fast and severe the consequences of global warming will be. (Many of these major miscalculations including crossing the 11 most dangerous global warming tipping points are fully discussed and referenced in Chapter 7 of the new Climageddon book.)
we have continuously failed to effectively slow or reverse global warming. This is in spite of 30+ years of loud and detailed warnings by credible climate scientists, verified scientific research, and 22 international conferences on how to solve the global warming crisis.
we have crossed too many known and unknown important global warming tipping points over the last 30+ years within our climate systems and subsystems that the public still does not know about. This tipping point crossing process invariably locks us into crossing even more dangerous known and unknown global warming tipping points at faster and faster rates, which once again spikes up average global temperature far beyond what has been predicted by our global warming authorities. After we hit carbon 500 ppm which is currently inescapable, we will hit carbon 600 ppm which will most probably trigger a massive release methane from the methane clathrate crystals found on the coastal ocean shelves and that will trigger another massive temperature increase and the end of civilization in a massive extinction event, exactly as it has happened before.
- unconscionable groupthink illusions and delusions used and held by our global warming authorities at the Paris Climate Conference concerning possibilities of currently nonexistent atmospheric carbon removal technologies, which may or may not be discovered and successfully implemented until sometime after 2050!
- the complexity of the global climate: the massive number of interconnections, interactions, interdependencies, tipping points, and nonlinear reactions within the climate's many complex adaptive systems and subsystems, making the big picture crisis of falling into irreversible global warming invisible to all but a few scientists and big data analysts capable of processing such massive data complexity.
- we are now trapped by the reality of the minimum time needed to convert all global fossil fuel energy generation systems into green energy generation systems (currently over 100 years and probably much more). This means carbon in the atmosphere will reach carbon 500 ppm where all ice and glaciers on the planet will begin and continue melting.
Please also see the following page for much more information on how governments and many of the biggest environmental groups have been deceived by the false hope of atmospheric carbon capture technology (NETs) miraculously saving us at the last minute.
Click here to learn how we have been deceived about what atmospheric carbon capture technology can do and how bad global warming is by our governments and even many unwitting environmental groups who are all using "cooked" and unchallenged IPPC and government global warming calculations and estimations.
What can we do to fix this planning nightmare
The IPCC’s 20-40 % underestimation and non-existent carbon capture technology calculations present an absolute nightmare for anyone trying to do long-term planning, whether it be personal, business, local, regional, or national. When we take into account the IPCC's underestimation problems and bogus carbon capture calculations and come up with new temperature and timetable predictions, it appears any mid-term to long-term future planning based on the IPCC's predictions will put us in a world of hurt.
When we reach 5 to 6° Celsius (9-10.8° Fahrenheit) it will be the end of the world as we know it and it is not far off in the future. When you factor in crossing more global warming tipping points (which is highly probable and which was completely absent from the IPCC predictions, our world is in serious peril, not 40 or 80 years from now, but right now and over the next 20-40 years.
It is illogical beyond all comprehension to assign full responsibility for evaluating and predicting the single greatest security threat of the 21st-century to a group of volunteer and underfunded climate scientists with the best of intentions who submit their research to a bureaucratic and underfunded United Nations agency. But who should be doing this work?
If not the IPCC, who is most qualified to do needed tipping point research and prediction?
It is clear the IPCC is not doing its job. The world's current leading authority on global warming is no longer the appropriate agent we can trust to manage the research, analysis, and planning necessary to save us from the escalating global warming extinction emergency. The danger is so great and imminent that we can’t keep doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different result.
We have no other rational choice but to bypass any existing failed authorities, structures, and processes that have not worked and are not working. That is the only way we will have any honest hope of handling the global warming extinction emergency. The new book Climageddon discusses who now should be doing this research and prediction work.
Other reasons for 30 + years of failure
1. The people of the world have been subjected to a massive fossil fuel industry-sponsored disinformation and misinformation program that makes the former disinformation and misinformation programs of the cigarette companies telling the public their products would not cause any harm, look like child's play. Billions of dollars have been spent through the media and bogus think tanks and bogus studies to present "evidence" that global warming is not real, or that any real harm won't show up until after 2100 or, a host of other falsehoods that serve a single purpose. Their intent is to create doubt as to the legitimacy of the problem which paralyzes necessary action and removes any urgency towards solving the problem. If you'd like to see just how far the fossil fuel companies will go to create about the real fossil fuel usage reductions we need to make, click here.
2. There are many other contributing reasons for why we have failed to resolve the global warming crisis over the last 30 years, but a major reason lies within the data we've been given and the organization trusted to give us that data. More of these other contributing reasons are fully discussed in the new book Climageddon.
3. We are not accounting for the cost of global warming inaction in our cost to benefit studies. Its latest report, Fatal Calculations, takes aim at economists for failing to adequately account for costs of inaction in their models, which in turn has been used by politicians to delay action.
“Despite the escalating climate disasters globally, not least our fires, this preoccupation with the cost of action — and a blind eye turned to overwhelming future damage — remains the dominant thinking within politics, business and finance,” the Breakthrough report found.
“Because climate change is now an existential threat to human society, risk management and the calculation of potential future damages must pay disproportionate attention to the high-end, extreme possibilities, rather than focus on middle-of-the-spectrum probabilities.”
In a discussion paper released in May, titled COVID-19 climate lessons, Breakthrough draws parallels between climate change and the lack of preparedness for the pandemic.
“The world is sleepwalking towards disaster. The UN climate science and policymaking institutions are not fit-for-purpose and have never examined or reported on the existential risks,” the paper reads.
“There are no national or global processes to ensure that such risk assessments are undertaken and are efficacious. The World Economic Forum reports on high-end global risks, including climate disruption, once a year and then everybody goes back to ignoring the real risks.”
A deeper dive into the science of the IPCC’s prediction underestimation issues
For those who want to go into more detail, Climate Interactive’s scoreboard (9) provides a helpful visualization of the mess the IPCC has created. Not including any tipping point scenarios, this scoreboard will further illustrate where the average global temperature is headed using the IPCC’s current underestimated and uncorrected calculations.
The essential positive perspective on the above disruptive global warming and climate change news
Despite the many types of challenging global warming consequences and past fossil fuel reduction mistakes that we now face, we can still learn from their feedback, and we can adapt and evolve to make life as good and as happy as is possible. No matter how severe the coming global warming consequences might become, if we wisely play the remaining cards that we have been dealt, we can still achieve the best remaining possible outcomes.
We can yet make a significant difference to reduce global fossil fuel use to stabilize and save the future of humanity by executing a comprehensive reduction and survival plan like the Job One for Humanity global warming action plan.
We can still maintain the perseverance needed to succeed in this monumental task by regularly reviewing the many benefits which will unfold as we work successfully on this together. (Click here to review those benefits.)
We can persevere through this time of emergency. We just need to remember that our greatest challenges are also the seeds of our greatest opportunities.
We are engaged in nothing less than the most critical and meaningful evolutionary opportunity, challenge, and adventure in human history! It is our last opportunity to slow down the mass human extinction threat by getting close to these 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. Only reaching these targets will fully remove the total extinction threat. In reaching these targets, we also significantly improve many of the world's other 12 major challenges.
Get started today on the Job One for Humanity global warming reduction and survival plan. Help save and salvage as much of humanity and our beautiful civilization as is possible.
- Over its history, the IPCC’s global warming consequence and timetable scenario predictions are believed to be regularly underestimated by anywhere from 25 to 40%.
- Not only does the IPCC have a serious data underestimation problem, but it also has a problem with its global warming tipping point education and disclosure scenarios.
- The recognized world authority on global warming has failed us. Continuing to use the IPCC’s inadequate global warming data and the ever-increasing fossil fuel pollution of our atmosphere will inevitably lead to crossing more global warming tipping points.
- The IPCC’s 25-40% underestimations will create an absolute nightmare for anyone trying to do mid-term or long-term planning, whether it be personal, business, city, or national, because the wrong facts will lead them to wrong actions and failure.
- When you factor in crossing more global warming tipping points (which is highly probable and which was completely absent from the IPCC predictions), our world is in serious peril, not 40 or 80 years from now, but now and over the next 20-40 years.
- It is illogical beyond all comprehension to assign full responsibility for evaluating and predicting the single greatest security threat of the 21st-century to a group of volunteer and underfunded climate scientists who submit their research to a bureaucratic and underfunded United Nations agency.
- The unresolved global warming danger is so great and imminent, we have no other rational choice but to bypass any existing failed structures or processes that have not worked or are not working effectively.
- The IPCC’s illusions and delusions about a new miracle technology that will come into being and save us at the last minute sometime in the second half of the 21st century will be the undoing of us all.
- At best we had about 40 years to make the necessary changes when we were warned 30 years ago by climate scientists. If we are very, very lucky, we have about 10 years left to make the radical, costly, and painful changes that would've been far easier, cheaper, and less painful had we begun them 30 years ago.
- It is critically important to also understand that no compensatory calculations for the effects of any global warming tipping points being crossed were ever included in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC,) calculations for precisely how much we have to reduce our global fossil fuel use to save ourselves from extinction. This is important because the IPCC's global fossil fuel reduction calculations are currently being used by all of the member governments of the United Nations (about 190 countries,) for setting their own internal national fossil fuel reduction programs. This horrific failure to include crossing any global warming tipping points in our current global and national fossil fuel reduction calculations is also true for the world's most recent 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. This omission of including proper calculations for crossing global warming tipping points as the world continues to warm is the recipe for mutually assured destruction. Yes, this failure to include allowance calculations for crossed tipping points shockingly also means that the national fossil fuel reduction programs of every member of the United Nations using the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement targets is also based on incomplete and inaccurate calculations. (Click here for the correct 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets.) And finally,
- Keep in mind that our government leaders have utterly failed to see the coming pain and suffering of the COVID-19 pandemic, nor did they adequately prepare for it. Our government leaders are also not seeing or adequately preparing for the global warming extinction emergency, which is already happening and, will be far, far worse than COVID-19!
From what you have read, do you feel deceived by the IPCC regarding these key issues?
Despite being the world's most recognized authority on global warming (aka climate change,) the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) has consistently understated the intensity and timeframes of global warming, as well as the danger that it represents.
The IPCC’s global warming prediction scenarios fail to include going over more global warming tipping points—or, in the IPCC's nomenclature, "high-impact events" or fat tails—in the climate’s major or minor systems or subsystems.
The greatest loss caused by IPCC’s underestimation problem is that it quells, if not removes, the appropriate sense of urgency essential to motivating the world to deal with the escalating global warming extinction emergency’s present and future threats.
To see more critical information on how challenging it will be to be able to manage the escalating global warming extinction emergency effectively, click here.
There are also many additional reasons we have failed to manage global warming and for why our current global warming may already be beyond our meaningful control
Click here to see these additional reasons and decide for yourself if we will ever get the global warming emergency under control.
- Glenn Scherer. "How the IPCC Underestimated Climate Change." Scientific American. December 6, 2012. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-science-predictions-prove-too-conservative/
- "Scientific consensus: Earth's climate is warming." Climate.Nasa.Gov. Last modified January 24, 2017. http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
- Dana Nuccitelli. "Vision Prize: scientists are worried the IPCC is underestimating sea level rise." The Guardian. February 18, 2014. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/feb/18/scientists-worried-ipcc-underestimate-sea-level-rise
- Bill McKibben. "The IPCC is stern on climate change - but it still underestimates the situation." The Guardian. November 2, 2014. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/02/ipcc-climate-change-carbon-emissions-underestimates-situation-fossil-fuels
- Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller, eds., "Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change," (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1/
- Chris Mooney. "The world's climate change watchdog may be underestimating global warming." The Washington Post. October 30, 2014. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/10/30/climate-scientists-arent-too-alarmist-theyre-too-conservative/?utm_term=.8e8e665ddf76
- Nicholas Stern. "Economics: Current climate models are grossly misleading." Nature.com. February 24, 2016. http://www.nature.com/news/economics-current-climate-models-are-grossly-misleading-1.19416
- FAQ 12.1, Figure 1, from Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver, and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments, and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
- Climate Scoreboard. http://www.climateinteractive.org/programs/scoreboard/ Climate Interactive. Accessed December 13, 2016.
- Most of the preceding information about the escalating warming extinction emergency can be found in the Climageddon book. Get your copy now! Your book purchase helps support the social benefit mission of Job One for Humanity to end global warming. Each purchase of Climageddon helps support the Job One for Humanity nonprofit organization and our Job One plan to help you and the world survive global warming.
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