James Hansen, the former NASA scientist, first warned us that climate change could drive humanity to extinction. He now has a new research paper that takes the air out of your lungs if you have a climate science or strong science background.
Last updated 8.4.23
The links below will take you to this new Hansen et al. climate study, and the abstract below will describe it. We bolded one part worth your immediate attention. If you are good with science, you will quickly understand what getting the climate sensitivity constant so wrong now means for almost everything you have heard from our governments, the media, and the UN IPCC on our climate future is also wrong, but not by a little, but by a lot. We estimate when you include the climate sensitivity errors with the other IPCC errors, everything you hear in the media, from our governments, and most environmental groups about climate change is underestimated by 20-40% or more.
We also just published a more accessible summary of this Hansen's research paper. Here is this new summary article.
THE RESEARCH PAPER ABSTRACT
"Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ~4°C for doubled CO2 (2×CO2), with likely range 3.5-5.5°C. Greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing is 4.1 W/m2 larger in 2021 than in 1750, equivalent to 2×CO2 forcing. Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates.
Eventual global warming due to today’s GHG forcing alone – after slow feedbacks operate – is about 10°C. Human-made aerosols are a major climate forcing, mainly via theireffect on clouds. We infer from paleoclimate data that aerosol cooling offset GHG warming for several millennia as civilization developed. A hinge-point in global warming occurred in 1970 as increased GHG warming outpaced aerosol cooling, leading to global warming of 0.18°C per decade. Aerosol cooling is larger than estimated in the current IPCC report, but it has declined since 2010 because of aerosol reductions in China and shipping.
Without unprecedented global actions to reduce GHG growth, 2010 could be another hinge point, with global warming in following decades 50-100% greater than in the prior 40 years. The enormity of consequences of warming in the pipeline demands a new approach addressing legacy and future emissions. The essential requirement to "save" young people and future generations is return to Holocene-level global temperature.
Three urgently required actions are: 1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions, 2) purposeful intervention to rapidly phase down present massive geoengineering of Earth’s climate, and 3) renewed East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs."
Do you want to read more about climate sensitivity and why what Hansen is saying in this article is so important to your future, please see this older article which is considerably easier to understand if you're not a climate scientist.
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