The 1970 Club of Rome/MIT study and four supporting studies predicted times for the collapse of global population, food production, industrial output, and raw resources. They did not include new climate change research. Our new study does.
When you add recent climate change research to the results of five previous credible studies on global resource declines, population decline, food production decline, industrial output decline, and rising pollution, humanity worldwide will experience radically increasing adverse outcomes from about 2025-2030.
From 2030-2040 humanity will experience exponentially increasing adverse outcomes relating to resource declines, population decline, food production decline, industrial output decline, and rising pollution.
From 2040-2050 humanity will continue experiencing very serious widespread adverse outcomes. Moreover, these accumulating adverse outcomes will continue to accelerate the collapse of local, regional, and national ecological, economic, and political systems.
This article is the last of our three-part Club of Rome/MIT global collapse-related studies series.
The original Club of Rome/MIT study and its four subsequent verification updates did not include recent climate change research or climate change tipping points and feedback loops. This new article below does include the effects of those climate factors.
The world faces many major problems, but only a few that will radically harm your life and future no matter where you live. It is only necessary to group this threat into just a few categories to understand the magnitude of the complex and soon-arriving global collapse threat. Accordingly, this new collapse study below focuses on global resource availability, a coming population crash, a massive food production decline, severe declines in industrial output, and rising pollution.
The original basis for this article was a profound study conducted at MIT in 1970 by sponsorship from a group of industrialists called the Club of Rome. The study concluded that severe consequences would occur worldwide if significant changes were not immediately started. Such changes, however, would severely challenge inherent personal profit impulses, especially for those with high political ambitions and accumulated wealth.
To preserve hidden advantages, governments and politicians suppressed or hid the following information from their citizens or intentionally ignored it. In addition, Federal Reserve Banks, investment banks (like J.P Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley), hedge funds (like Bridgewater Associates, Renaissance Technologies, Blackrock,) and the world's major corporations and their industrial leaders have also hidden, ignored, or maintained sophisticated disinformation campaigns against the shocking, but accurate results of these global collapse studies to keep them from upsetting their clients or customers. They do this because the verified results of these collapse studies could empower an active revolt against their business as usual, ensure continuous growth and profits, and maintain current economic stability at all costs mantras and paradigms.
Even 50 years after the original study, many corporate and governmental interests continue to create this dangerous global blind spot concerning the most probable collapse future of their citizens, clients, or customers. They also do this to ensure they retain the highest possible personal survival and resources advantage as our global systems collapse. As a result of this high-level intentional blinding of the world's citizens, the world's citizens will be blindsided by a cascade of soon-arriving "unpredicted" and "surprise" global catastrophes and collapses.
Average world citizens will be financially crushed. Billions will die because of what politicians and industrialists will later disingenuously insist were completely "unanticipated" or "unpredictable" global system collapse calamities. (This blindsiding problem also exists because it is rare for average individuals to have an accurate "big picture" overview of complex, globalized issues like resource availability, food production, industrial output, globalized population threats, and pollution.)
In the article and its many illustrations below, you will discover the uncensored global collapse crisis that IS the future of every person, business, and nation on Earth. The climate change updated information below will cause significant anxiety and stress in even the most vital, rational, and intelligent among us, as it should! Yet, if some of humanity can make it through this soon-to-arrive global collapse, there is a real possibility of a new golden age and a new era of Great Global Social advancement.
And finally, if you are not an emotionally strong and mature adult, or your life is currently in chaos, or you believe you can't do much to fix our global problems, please do not read this 2023 climate change-enhanced, collapse timeframe update for the original Club of Rome MIT global collapse study and its four after-verification studies. It will only upset you concerning things you can do little to change.
Here is an overview of the sections in this new article on global collapse key areas and their time frames:
2. How does the Club of Rome/MIT global collapse study and its four related verification studies' predictions change for resources, population, food production, industrial output, and pollution when you also include the latest climate change research?
3. It is necessary to understand how the research calculations were made for the five different variables to grasp this article's newly adjusted global collapse timelines.
4. The original Club of Rome/MIT study's conclusions and its collapse warning the global society.
5. The KPMG illustration tweaked updates to the original Club of Rome/MIT collapse study.
6. Our climate change think tank's timeline refinements for the five collapse variables when current climate research is added to the original Club of Rome/MIT collapse study and its four subsequent verification studies.
7. All three Club of Rome-related study graphs are shown together to help you view ALL studies' changes over the last 50+ years.
8. What does it mean if humanity does get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and we do not go into the second stage of irreversible runaway global heating?
9. What does it mean if humanity does not fix the climate change emergency and humanity experiences an accelerated global collapse and mass extinction?
10. Here are several wildcards for all article conclusions and graphs.
11. Summary and Conclusion.
12. Documentation links to help explain how we came to our study analysis.
13. Why does our climate change think tank research and publish this and other climate change articles?
If you have not read our short first and second articles on the Club of Rome MIT global collapse study and our summary of its four verification and updated studies, we strongly recommend reading the two previous articles at some point. They are a good foundation for the concluding Part Three of our Club of Rome MIT article series below.
Here are the links to our first two articles in this three-part series:
2. How does the Club of Rome/MIT collapse study and its four related verification studies' timeframe predictions change for resources, population, food production, industrial output, and pollution when you include the latest climate change research?
The original club of Rome/MIT study and its updates did not include recent climate change research and climate change tipping points and feedback loops. The original studies and their updates did not include the most recent meteoric rise of atmospheric carbon, methane and nitrous oxide, or the probable collapse of the Thwaites doomsday glacier in their calculations. (In 2023, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are now about 420 parts per million.)
This article will present you with new timeline modifications to the five factor graphs (global resource availability, population crash, a massive food production decline, severe declines in industrial output, and rising pollution) you see below. They are derived from the original Club of Rome/MIT collapse study and the KPMG verification study and the other 3 verification studies done on the original Club of Rome/MIT collapse study.
The graph below is called the “World Model with Natural Resource Reserves Doubled.” It is derived from the illustration on page 127 of the original Club of Rome/MIT study (linked below in our documentation section at the end of this article.
Please notice the dates each of the five variables (resources, population, food, industrial output, and pollution) in this illustration below begin to go downward. Particularly notice the 2040-2050 time range.
Here is the original Club of Rome/MIT study graph.
3. It is necessary to understand how the research calculations were made for the five Club of Rome prediction factors to grasp this article's newly adjusted global collapse timelines.
The graph above shows curves for five factors: resources, population, food, industrial output, and pollution. These are "summary" variables only. That means, in the actual program, the value shown on the graph is the sum of many components. "Resources," for example, included arable land, freshwater, metals, forests, and oceans. The level for each component was further comprised of many more detailed items.
The Club of Rome/MIT program does not try to "determine" what the curve for each of these is going forward using projections from government agencies and academic papers. Instead, the program uses a process called "systems analysis." In this process, the future is envisioned as a sequence of time intervals, like one year.
The process the computer modeling program follows is to take the level of each variable at some current point in time, say the year 2000. Then, for each variable, like population, calculate what that value is estimated to be one year later, given the influence of ALL the other variables. Keep repeating the single-year calculation until a stopping point is reached.
This simplified example shows how each step works. Again, consider resources. Assume the earth, in 2020, had about 40,000 tons of gold left that can economically be mined. In that year, all the mines in the world removed about 3,500 tons. Then starting in 2021, there would only be 36,500 tons left. The shock that should immediately confront us is that, at this rate, the world will run out of gold in about 11 years! What then? But, for this example, that's all that is needed to get the new 36,500 value for the next calculation point.
Where the magic of this method occurs is that the value of many other variables will be affected by this change in gold reserves. Gold prices will surely go up. That means the cost of every product that uses gold will go up, like ALL electronics. If more money goes into the gold found in electronics, there will be less available money to produce and buy food, etc. So the new level of gold in remaining reserves will impact many of the other variables for the following year's incremental calculation. By simply repeating this process over and over again, the curves in the graph appear.
Special qualifications regarding the five illustration variables: resources, population, food, industrial output, and pollution. in the above illustration
- Resources: This curve represents the amount of available "nonrenewable" resources for the entire earth. This variable sets a hard limit to human survival. Examples of the critical resources used in the study are arable land, freshwater, metals, forests, and oceans. The main impact of this variable in the model is that, as such resources are used up, they cost more to obtain or run out entirely. The main result is the higher cost forces reduced industrial output because people can't afford to purchase as many items. The other variable that is directly impacted is food production. When an essential mineral like potassium (potash) approaches depletion, fertilizer costs become very high. That means farms fail. Rising food costs for individuals and governments are no longer affordable. People then starve on a wide scale.
- Population: This is the number of people on the planet. But it is a very complex variable to model for its effects on the other four variables. For example, how does a person living in a slum compare with a movie celebrity when calculating their impact on industrial production? When these graphs were first produced, the "average" American was responsible for the consumption of $11,000 in "Gross National Product." Yet, in the same year, a person in China only used $100 equivalent! A person in Nigeria only used $60!
- Because the effort produced the study with a long future in mind, the assumption was that world society would solve the great inequity injustices across the planet. They did this by designing a model that assumed ALL people on the earth would achieve a standard of living equivalent to what the "average American" anticipated to achieve in the year 2000. That was $36,800. While a good goal, in humanitarian terms, this additional "spendable income" would hugely impact industrial output. That output would have an equally large impact on the need for ALL natural resources. The result was the steep downturn in the resources curve after 2000 and the steep rise in industrial output around 1980.
- Food: The variable for food production is mainly driven by the amount of "fertile" land on earth suitable to grow crops and grazing animals. That resource has long been taken. Most land has lost its natural fertility and is now dependent on technology - i.e., chemical fertilizers. Most educated people hearing this immediately think, "The green revolution. We'll just keep doing that." But "the green revolution" was a technology solution of the 1960s aimed at "temporarily" saving India from mass starvation. To be sustainable, however, a mass population stabilization program was also needed in India. But, it was never done. India is now facing the same problem it had in the 1950s. Ironically, China was also facing the same issue. They also implemented the same technologies. However, they also instituted the "one child per family" program, saving them temporarily from the disaster in India.
- So all future food production relies on developing poor soils and finding new technologies to increase yields further. Unfortunately, no viable options are currently known. Furthermore, two additional key obstacles are also now entering the picture: available fresh water and loss of potash reserves.
- In 2022, the "signature" major rivers in the world announced droughts sufficient to stop boat traffic. This included: the Colorado, Mississippi, Rhine, Danube, Volga, Yangtze, Tiber, Po, and Elbe. (If a dam is built in Ethiopia to provide water to that country, the Nile will be added to the list.)
- Potash is needed to make fertilizer. The primary world supply comes from Canada. It has about 1 billion tons accessible in its mines. It also ships about 70 million tons a year. That means they will run out in 14 years! After that, no viable options are known.
- Many people will ask, what about the oceans? What about fish as food? This was included as a natural resource. Unfortunately, almost every fishery on earth is already in collapse or quickly approaching it. This is also why the food curve takes such a steep fall in the graph.
- Industrial output: This is a measure of all the tangible goods produced around the world. While we usually think first about what people consume daily, that's only a small part. As the population grows, new infrastructure is needed: buildings, roads, and bridges, new factories. Materials and parts are needed to maintain and rebuild the infrastructure that has already been built or destroyed by natural catastrophes and war. The growth of population, rising standards of living, and the strife it causes put tremendous pressure on producing more of everything! That's why the industrial output curve has grown so quickly. It then stops growing and crashes because the natural resource runs out.
- Pollution: The major concerns for pollution in the study were: world production of energy, chemical harm to people and the environment, and the costs to manage the pollution. The first impact in the model is direct population death. The second is indirect death when resources are consumed to control pollution. A third is diverting costs away from food production and industrial output. The energy problem is mainly from fossil fuels and burning wood and biomass.
- Chemical harm for people impacts society when chemicals either directly kill people or require significant health care. The environmental impacts are an intermediate stage where animals and plants are harmed in ways that cause follow-on harm to humans. An example of a direct animal impact is the destruction of a fish species that becomes a food supply loss for humans. An indirect animal impact is the mercury contamination of fish, which causes severe brain harm in humans.
- An example of costs to manage pollution is the problem of trash landfills. Trash production is now so great in developed countries that international shipping is used to turn developing countries into trash dumps.
4. The original Club of Rome/MIT study's significant conclusions and its collapse warning the global society.
Assuming you have read our foundational first article and the second article in our global collapse timeframe series (linked at the end of this article), let's overview the original Club of Rome/MIT collapse study conclusions before we modify the timeframes seen in the illustration above.
1. "If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. [That is, by 2070]
2. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in population and industrial capacity."
When the original study is updated without the current climate change research, you will find the following:
1. By running the program over again using current data, any errors that entered the original calculation for the period from 1972 to 2022 would be eliminated. What has been very satisfying to those who have run reevaluations is that the curves have so closely held their shape.
2. While the general shape of the illustration curves above remains the same, when the program was run with starting data from around 2012, the crash times occurred much earlier! The crashes occur earlier because critical resource depletions are now estimated to occur much earlier.
3. In addition to gold and potash resource shortages mentioned earlier, depletions of many more critical minerals, natural products like trees, and direct food sources are expected in less than two decades.
4. Regarding the graph, that means the point on the graph labeled "2040 8.5B people" can be moved ahead to 2030.
5. The illustration point labeled "2100 2.5B people" left alive can be moved ahead to 2070 after a much steeper drop. The reason is easily seen from the examples given above for the depletion of gold and potash, but remember this, the above timeframe projections do not include the recent climate change research. (Most recent independent population projections not factoring in the many counter-population factors discussed in this article are as follows. The world's population was projected to reach 8 billion in November 2022. in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and 10.4 billion in 2100.)
5. The KPMG illustration tweaked updates to the original Club of Rome/MIT collapse study.
In 2021, the KPMG Group, one of the “top four” accounting firms in the world, reviewed the history of the Club or Rome effort since 1972. KPMG was aware that “Empirical data comparisons since then indicated that the world was still heading for collapse.” KPMG's “objectives were to examine whether this was still the case based on the most recent data and whether there was opportunity left to change that trajectory.” While not stated in the report, it is obvious that this research was being requested by some of the most prominent institutions in the world, who are their clients.
The KPMG graph below shows confirming yet significant timeframe and severity differences in population, food production, industrial output, and resources from the original Club of Rome/MIT study. Because of its prominent world status, KPMG obtained the latest and most reliable data from “academia, non-government agencies, United Nations entities, and the World Bank.” Their overall assessment was:
“The scenarios aligned closely with observed global data, which is a testament to the legitimate work done decades ago. The two scenarios aligning most closely indicate a halt in growth over the next decade or so, which puts into question the usability of continuous growth as humanity’s goal in the 21st century. Both scenarios also indicate subsequent declines, but only one—the scenario in which declines are caused by pollution, including greenhouse gas pollution—depicts a collapse pattern.”
“This suggests that it’s almost, but not yet, too late for society to change course.”
The KPMG report went into great detail about the disinformation effort that stopped the initial positive worldwide response.
Here is the updated KPMG graph.
6. Our climate change think tank's timeline refinements for the five collapse variables when current climate research is added to the original Club of Rome/MIT collapse study and its four subsequent update and verification studies
(Please note that the Job One for Humanity updated resource graphs below assume that the world will not get close to the very difficult-to-reach 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. If we do come close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, an illustration further down the page shows you how the Club of Rome/MIT's most updated KPMG graph will change,
The most important thing to understand about the climate change emergency is that it is a global threat multiplier and amplifier and a keystone global disruptor. Climate change increases the impact of resource depletion and environmental pollution. As such, it will adversely affect or worsen almost all of humanity's major problems, including the five items on the KPMG updated graph above (food, resources, pollution, population, and industrial output.) While many consider climate change the greatest disruptor of global social, ecological, economic, and political stability, one will always have to include the depletion of natural resources to get a full view to put the following new information into context.
The original Club of Rome/MIT study and its four verification updates did not include recent climate change research. When you include current calculations for the rapid rise of atmospheric carbon and methane, various carbon and methane tipping points and their feedback loops, the likely collapse of the Thwaites doomsday glacier, and other factors, you get the new timeline refinements listed below.
These new timeline predictions are also highly dependent upon the insane and immoral lack of progress by our governments over the last 60 years in reducing carbon and methane and the other fossil fuel-produced greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. If there were a radical reduction in global fossil fuel use coming close to the survival-critical 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, the new timelines below would need to be adjusted significantly, notably the population death predictions.
The following six graphs illuminate what the Club of Rome/MIT and four subsequent verification studies should look like when current climate research factors and resource depletion are also included in the calculations.
The first graph below is the master graph showing all five variables updated on one graph (food, population, industrial output, resources, and pollution). Wherever you see dotted lines for each variable, darker or bolder, you see the new changes and updates made to the two illustrations above.
Here is the 2023 updated Job One for Humanity master graph with current climate change updates added to it.
The five individual variable graphs below focus only on only one named variable food, population, industrial output, resources, or pollution. This updated collapse variable information is critical for individual, family, business, and long-term national planning. To make the following updates easier to read and understand, each variable has updated changes in its graph line, highlighted, bolded, and indicated by the Update box and arrow.
GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION
Quick Summary of Global Food Production Graph Updates:
1. Global food production begins to decline steeply about 2025- 2030. (During this period, climate change consequences become increasingly severe and frequent and cover larger and larger areas more climate change temperature tipping points will be crossed. This dressing of more climate tipping points causes mass starvation, migration to cities, and local and regional wars.)
2. Global food production moves closer to widespread collapse from 2030 – 2050.
3. Global food production levels off by about 2050-2080 and begins some recovery after the die-off of about half of humanity by mid-century.
More About how global food production will be affected:
When you add current climate change and resource factors into the Club of Rome/MIT-related studies, the original study predictions for food production stay much the same because the original study accurately anticipated the depletion of potassium (potash) and overuse of rivers and groundwaters.
Still, some minor differences make a drop in global food production occur a few years sooner and a bit more severe.
Here is more about how global food production projections will change with current climate change research and resource predictions added to the older Club of Rome/MIT and elated studies projections:
1. Global food production (and food distribution) will begin to decline and collapse sometime from about 2025 to 2031 because of increased crop failures and low crop yields. In addition, food production and food distribution will be battered by climate change-driven extreme weather events like heatwaves, heat domes, droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, cyclones, tornados, floods and flooding, rain bombs, wind storms [Derechos], dust storms, wildfire smoke events, unseasonable cold spells, and other abnormal unseasonal weather.
Large-scale weather shifts driven by significant changes in the path of the jet streams will also cause lower food production. Jet stream instabilities will contribute to regional droughts, major rivers going dry, and regional floods. As a result of the above and as global heating accelerates, the past's stable, regular growing seasons will cease to exist in many locations worldwide.
2. Beginning sometime about 2025-2031, food production will drop radically because of a new series of key crossed climate change tipping points and feedback loops, which will again increase the severity, frequency, and scale of climate change-driven primary and secondary consequences.
3. Food production collapse is only partially due to yearly climate change. The cumulative negative effect on food production also shows in resource depletion, including aquifers and reservoirs and mountain glaciers hitting bottom, the critical depletion of potassium and potash, used in many chemical-based manufactured fertilizers, and the collapse of soils.
Pollution also kills food production, contributing to the collapse of fisheries. Using pesticides and other pollution sources will destroy bee populations, and animal antibiotics will give way to drug-resistant animal diseases and lower food production. The rising temperatures of climate change will also affect the food supply through migrating crop diseases and insect infestations.
4. From 2030 to 2050, global food production will continue to decline for many of the same reasons mentioned above.
5. Global food production will not recover from its steep decline until somewhere between 50% to as much as 90% of the human population has died off (from about 2050-2080.) This steep decline in global food production by about 2030 or sooner is because we will have entered into irreversible runaway global heating with its many extinction-accelerating climate tipping points and deadly feedback loops. (But, if humanity can get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, somewhere near 2050, the loss of human life after 2050 will be far less, and food production should level off and stabilize at a higher level.)
6. Global food production will eventually level or decline at a far lower rate, depending on how intensely humanity continues to die off after 2050.
7. There is one ever-present mega-variable for all five collapse variables. If there is a global nuclear or biological war during the period of these projections, these predictions would, of course, significantly and suddenly change.
Quick Summary of Population Graph Updates:
1. By 2050, 50% of the human population will die. There will be only about 4 billion left.
2. The original illustration point (at the top of the page from the original study) included a note at the year 2100 labeled "2100 with 2.5B people." With all climate change and other updates, and assuming we do not get close to reaching the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, the graph now becomes about 1 to about 1 1/2 billion people left alive by 2070-2080. This change is quite a difference. (To see why climate change and other factors will not likely create our total extinction, click here.
3. But, assuming that we do get close to reaching the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, the population graph will remain somewhere between 2-3 billion people left (about 2.5 billion) by 2100.
More about how global population will be affected:
a. The global population reached 8 billion in November of 2022, considerably sooner than projected in earlier collapse studies. However, the global population will drop markedly faster when all current climate factors are added to the previous five related collapse studies. There will be significantly larger deaths than projected in the original Club of Rome/MIT study and its four related verification studies.
This larger population drop will result from three major causes. One is the many primary and secondary climate change-driven consequences that occur with increasing severity, frequency, and scale. The second is the "overshoot" of population size at each time point, consuming more food and resources and generating more pollution. The third is major social unrest from mass migrations, leading to worldwide conflict.
b. By about mid-century, about half of humanity will be dead no matter what we do now because:
i. our governments squandered the last 60 years when we should have gradually reduced our global fossil fuel use. (Because of this long-term government inaction, many severe climate change consequences are unavoidable.)
ii. The many accelerating primary and secondary climate change-driven consequences will, directly and indirectly, lower the global population.
iii. by mid-century, we will have crossed into and beyond several climate change mass extinction accelerating tipping points.
iv. The fossil fuel atmospheric carbon pollution physics and extinction dilemma of Garret's Climate Dilemma, which at some point, our politicians will have to face and decide to save the other half of humanity post-min-century.
c. The original Club of Rome/MIT illustration and the KPMG illustration (above) need to be adjusted so that our new collapse timeframe shows only about 4 billion people left alive by 2050. (See the new illustration above.)
d. The original Club of Rome/MIT illustration (at the top of the page), labeled "2100 with 2.5B people" left alive, should now range from only about 1 to about 1 and 1/2 billion people left alive by 2070-2080. Not the 2.5 billion by 2100 from the original Club of Rome/MIT study.
e. Near-total extinction around 2070-2080 only occurs if our governments do not get global fossil fuel use reduced close to the legitimate 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets. (If our governments do come close to the challenging 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, we may be able to save as much as half of humanity, about 4 billion people, by about 2050. But after 2050, even if we come close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, the human population will eventually continue to drop to about 2-3 billion people by about 2100 because of ongoing resource shortages, lowered food production, and reduced industrial output. )
f. The big thing to remember is that fewer people means less industrial output, which means less food. Fewer people, lower industrial output, and less food production mean less climate change-related fossil fuel-related pollution of our atmosphere. Once we significantly reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases, it will finally start reversing and lowering global temperatures, which will be a huge life and environment saver. All of which also means better conditions for the survival of any survivors post-mid-century.
GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
Quick Summary of Industrial Output Graph Updates
Here is how industrial output projections will change when current climate change and resource depletion research is added to the previous projections:
1. Industrial output should peak by about 2035-2040.
2. Industrial output will drop steeper and earlier than in the original and subsequent Club of Rome/MIT-related studies from 2050 to about 2080.
2. Industrial output will then drop to match the population, food production, and resource depletion declines.
3. Industrial output should eventually level off at a far lower level commensurate with the population, providing that the world does not go into a new dark age. However, industrial output will drop even further if that happens and remain so for many decades, possibly a century or more.
More about how industrial output will be affected:
Here are additional climate and resource depletion-related reasons why industrial output will continue to fall as global temperatures continue to rise:
a. Because of increased global warming work disruptions and many stresses caused by both the primary and secondary climate change-driven consequences, the total cumulative human capacity to work outside of protected enclosures will go down significantly. These climate-related stresses and damages will cause more business production and product distribution interruptions, business and personal uncertainty, unemployment, and homelessness. (Some climate-related disruptions will even affect production inside enclosures.)
b. As we experience worsening primary and secondary climate change-driven consequences, there also will be more shortages of necessary raw and manufactured resources. These shortages occur because the mining, harvesting, or processing of these needed resources will also be delayed or slowed by the worsening of the primary and secondary climate change-driven consequences.
Because of these increasing climate-related resource depletion issues and work interruptions, the dependable production and distribution of food, medical supplies, and other essential supplies will continue to be significantly reduced or, in the later decades, break down entirely.
c. As the climate change-driven economic, political, ecological, and social chaos spreads, it will trigger more regional, national, and international conflicts and conventional wars. Governments will eventually declare martial law as things deteriorate, and more hard-won human rights will be suspended. In this chaotic environment, injustices and inequities will rise exponentially, making working and industrial output even more difficult to sustain.
d. After weaker governments and major communications channels break down, local warlords, tribes, clans, and criminal gangs will take control, and chaos will grow even greater, causing further reductions in industrial output.
e. After the widespread collapse and billions of people die, the deceased will leave vast quantities of property behind. Surviving refugees would move into existing, fully equipped homes if they weren't destroyed by war. Because of the lower population, the need for new infrastructures like roads and bridges would end.
The survivors, because of the depleted resources, will then be forced to supplement their needs with items recovered from what was left behind, landfills, or new services to keep old products and machines running as long as possible. This "survival-based" "recycling" will further reduce the need for industrial output. As global supply chains fail, people will fall back on personal "craft" hand-made work like making clothes. If survivors enter a new dark age, industrial output will fall even further.
Quick Summary of Global Resources Graph Updates
1. The global resources curve will drop considerably more steeply from 2025 to 2050.
2. After 2070-2080, global resources level off or decline only slightly until 2100.
3. Resource stabilization will only occur when far fewer people need far fewer resources.
Here is more about how global resource projections will change:
1. The resource lines on the original Club of Rome/MIT study illustration and the KPMG illustration above will look significantly different. This difference is because of a much faster climate change-driven drop-off in human population and industrial output than the original Club of Rome/MIT study and the four related studies predicted.
2. Because of the higher population than was anticipated by the Club of Rome/MIT study since 1972, the new earlier resource depletion rate (shown above) is faster than the original study showed. Therefore, the new global resource line will drop steeply from 2030 to 2050 because the overpopulation reduction of resource usage takes longer.
3. Because it takes time to reduce the population overshoot, the resource depletion crash will stay severe longer and go deep. This resource crash will continue until the overall population gets back in line with the earth's ability to renew the resources sustainably. This will produce a more profound earlier resource loss than projected.
4. Because fewer resources will be used as more and more people die, resources will also last considerably longer than in the original Club of Rome/MIT and related studies. These will sustain the people who survive for a longer time.
5. To help make the problem of the dwindling of key mineral resources on a wildly overpopulated planet crystal clear, it is only necessary to look at one resource, potassium. The most urgent food production-related resource depletion the world now faces is the loss of potassium. Potassium is primarily found in the mineral potash. Potash is the key critical ingredient in man-made fertilizers.
Accelerating climate change will radically change the world's rain, snow, and temperature patterns, and these factors will cause many of the world's farmers to move to other areas better suited for crop growing. The problem is that many safer global warming areas have significantly poorer soils that will need even more fertilizers to maintain the productivity of modern agribusiness.
To further clarify food production-related resource shortage issues, one only has to examine the "Green Revolution," which saved India from mass starvation in the late 1960s. This agricultural revolution was achieved by introducing "modern" mechanized farming. But it was done with a warning! This approach was ONLY temporary. It required fossil fuel-driven machinery, large farms, high-tech hybrid genetically engineered crops, and heavy fertilizer use. It would only support the starving population level for India at that time.
If the world population continued to grow, all the modern“Green Revolution” gains would be unsustainable. With our urgent need to radically cut global fossil fuel use, and the depletion of potash, the “Green Revolution” can NOT be repeated, especially in the poorer soils generally found in the northern global warming safer areas.
Quick Summary of Global Pollution Graph Updates
1. The pollution line in our new projection looks very similar to the one in the original Club of Rome/MIT study and as projected in the KPMG illustrations above. The significant difference in that curve's growth rate is illustrated below.
2. Global pollution goes "off the top of the chart" and stays there for centuries beyond the 2100 date.
3. As population and industrial output decline, the pollution production rate will decrease but not stop completely.
Why the pollution graph is the only graph that goes up and off the top of the graph
Please note that the pollution curve tracks the TOTAL pollution on the planet, NOT just that being generated by humans at each given time point.
Since the climate tipping points are being triggered and crossed, even if humanity entirely stops putting carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide into the atmosphere, the crossed climate tipping points will keep adding more atmospheric pollution like carbon dioxide and methane from melting permafrost. So the curve keeps going up! Unless humans find a way to extract pollution from the air, water, and land, its deadly effects will stay in our environment for decades to centuries.
The other reason pollution runs off the top of the graph is that the previous studies ran dozens of different models, each with different assumptions. They wanted to keep all the variables consistent across all the studies for comparison.
For many types of global pollution, there are two significant problems:
a. The first is that humanity now produces pollution at rates many times higher than the earth's natural ability to counteract that rate of production. This problem means the total amount of that pollutant will keep going up until the human population reaches a much lower point.
b. The second is so much pollution has already been created that it will take natural processes a very long time, hundreds of years in some cases, to reduce them down to acceptable levels.
An excellent example of this problem is the mercury contamination of the ocean. Mercury is considered by the World Health Organization (WHO) as one of the top ten chemicals or groups of chemicals of primary public health concern.
The primary way the oceans store mercury is in life forms: fish, microbes, and plants. When we were told by the WHO to switch to eating more fish to avoid problems with land animal diets, they ran right into the high mercury levels in edible fish that caused extensive human illness: loss of peripheral vision, weakened muscles, impairment of hearing and speech, and deteriorated movement coordination, and that is just for starters.
The natural processes that eliminate mercury from the environment are so complex no estimates for natural removal are generally agreed to. What the studies do suggest, however, is that the time span for natural removal will be found to be many decades in soils and possibly centuries in the ocean. (See
Here is how pollution projections can fall based on current climate change research
a. Fewer people will burn fewer fossil fuels, and there will be less air pollution.
b. Less industrial output, linked to a falling population, will produce less pollution.
d. The chemical pollution of our soils and waters will also fall directly proportional to the falling population, food production, resource extraction, and industrial output.
7. All three Club of Rome-related study graphs are shown together to help you view ALL studies' changes over the last 50+ years.
As you will see below, the population, resources, and food production factors collapse the fastest and earliest when you add in the recent climate change research.
The original Club of Rome/MIT study graph from the early 1970's:
The KPMG updated graph from (needs date):
The 2023 Job One for Humanity updated graph with current climate change information added and where humanity does not get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets:
8. What does it mean if humanity does get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and we do not go into the second stage of irreversible runaway global heating?
While viewing the 2023 Job One for Humanity update graph just above, with the other two graphs just above, notice the changes to population, food production, etc. The changes are because we modified the graph variables to compensate for the added climate change factors and the world getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets close to 2025.
When you factor in that the world does get close to reaching the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets, here is a list of the significant changes:
1. The blue population line would drop similarly until 2050 when it reaches 4 billion. After that, it falls more slowly from 2050 to 2100, following the food supply. The lead reason for the population dropping is that food production will keep dropping as the climate worsens. By 2100 the population would be about 1-2 billion people because food production, resource availability, and industrial output all continue to drop but at a slower pace.
2. The yellow food curve line starts to reduce its fall and level off in about 2050. After that, it drops even more slowly as the population keeps falling. Both the food and population curves don’t “level off” until about 2070.
3. Resources are still falling in 2050 because there are only 4 billion people. Another reason the resource loss rate is decreasing is that the resources are getting harder to extract. For example, if we cut the global use of carbon fuels, many industries won’t be able to replace all the diesel fuel equipment with electric power by that time. So from 2050 to 2100, resources would drop a bit more slowly as fewer people mean less demand and fewer resources being used.
4. Industrial output would start dropping much earlier and steeper about 2025 because of the radical cuts in global fossil fuel use to meet the 2025 global targets. Less fossil fuel use is only part of the cause. As the population falls, consumer demand for everything other than food will drop because those who die will leave extra houses and plenty of roads and buildings to repurpose. Around 2050, industrial output would level off but continue declining gradually towards 2100.
5. The pollution line about 2060 could start to drop or level off a bit going toward 2100 because humanity will have radically cut fossil fuel pollution from the atmosphere and the soils, rivers, and oceans. Although the rate of pollution has become less, total pollution never drops off this century.
6. The most significant justifying benefit for humanity getting close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and ceasing our global fossil fuel "business as usual" usage is that it provides the highest possibility of avoiding near-total extinction. It also eliminates any the climate change-driven possibility of total human extinction. (The detailed processes of near-total and total extinction are described fully on this page. This page also describes the four extinction-triggering climate change tipping points.)
7. Unfortunately, about half of humanity will still unavoidably die by mid-century because of 60 years of governmental inaction, the many adverse effects of an immediate and radical reduction in global fossil fuel use, and the climate physics of Garret's Climate Dilemma. Fossil fuels are essential for making agribusiness fertilizers and producing and distributing food. With global fertilizer output dropping in parallel with global fossil fuel use, there will be unavoidable mass human starvation pre-2050. This die-off dilemma is unfortunately now necessary at such a late stage of climate change acceleration to save much of the other half of humanity post-2050.
9. What else does it mean if humanity does not fix the climate change emergency and humanity experiences an accelerated global collapse and mass extinction?
The few remaining survivors will need to make many changes. Here is just a glimpse of the likely impacts for the survivors:
1. They will live in an environmental, economic, political, and social hell.
2. As one of the first actions of survivors, they will have to learn to avoid the previous population overshoot while learning the new principles for creating a sustainable prosperity for all.
3. There will be far less industrial output linked to a falling population. Whatever remains will be designed to produce far less or zero pollution. Anything considered "waste" in the manufacturing process will be fully recyclable.
4. Those survivors will burn fewer fossil fuels except in rare cases. With far fewer people and little burning of any kind, air pollution will be almost eliminated.
5. Any chemical pollution of our soils and waters must demonstrate complete biodegradability.
6. Human society will be compelled to make many drastic, new, and different decisions than it has made so far in everything from economic systems based on continuous and unsustainable growth to a safer use of energy sources.
10. Here are several wildcards for all article conclusions and graphs.
Only two major wild cards will drastically affect the graphs and conclusions of this article.
1. If there is a global nuclear, biological or large-scale chemical or biological war anywhere before 2050, the additional war deaths will significantly affect all of the graphs and our conclusions except the pollution estimates. Increased local, regional, and national conflicts usually occur as food shortages grow and mass migrations increase. This increase in conflicts is a well-predicted secondary consequence of climate change.
Because the numbers of starving and desperate people migrating, fighting for land, and a new home will eventually be in the hundreds of millions to billions, the use of nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons to control these migrations and national border invasions could quickly get out of control and lead to a global war.
Additionally, because of the above-mentioned widespread climate chaos and Club of Rome collapse factors occurring during this period, it is not improbable that nuclear, biological, or chemical storage sites could also become insecure and that serious accidents or theft will occur, which could also radically reduce the human population.
2. If we do not get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets soon enough, there is a real possibility, if not a strong probability, humanity will enter the third phase of irreversible runaway global warming. When this third phase is reached, it will be nearly impossible for humanity to avoid total extinction or, at best, and with insane amounts of luck, near-total extinction (near-total extinction, defined as 95-98% of all humankind going extinct.)
The five phases of runaway and irreversible global heating come about directly because humanity crosses more climate change tipping points and feedback loops at faster and faster rates. (The third phase of irreversible runaway global warming is described in this link. It is in the section called, "The third global heating extinction-expanding tipping point we will most probably cross as soon as 2063-2072 or earlier: It creates runaway methane releases and the beginning of a total human extinction scenario.")
Please note that the way our governments are currently handling climate change reduction is so poor and ineffective that humanity now faces the very high probability that we will soon enter the second phase of irreversible global heating. (According to James Hansen, the renowned NASAA climate scientist, we entered the first phase of runaway global heating in 2015 when atmospheric carbon levels reached 386 parts per million [ppm].)
We strongly advise reading this article to understand how the four climate change extinction-accelerating tipping points and the five phases of runaway global heating will quickly change the Club of Rome/MIT and its related study conclusions and predictions to a far worse state at a very fast rate.
11. Summary and Conclusion
Here is a summary of the conclusions of the Job One for Humanity climate change think tank as of January 5th, 2023, for our new study after we added current climate change research and analysis to the results of the original 1970 Club of Rome/MIT study and its four related subsequent verification studies:
1. Our new research and analysis again verify the legitimate work and further refines the prediction timeline of the original 1970 Club Of Rome/MIT study and its four related subsequent studies.
2, The new and expanded information above concerning the global collapse of food production, the population, industrial output, and available resources should help many individuals and organizations be aware of the extent and magnitude of the current global collapse threat and its timetable predictions. In addition, this article will allow these individuals or organizations to initiate or adjust their preparations and time frames more accurately.
3. A global collapse of key areas is no longer predicted not to occur until 2100 or in the far-off future, as many corporate-funded think tank models have predicted. All the above empirical data comparisons summarized in our three articles now indicate that the world is heading for a massive critical systems collapse far sooner than previously predicted.
4. The Great Global Collapse is now expected to begin between 2025 to 2030. During that time period, the world will begin experiencing radically accelerating climate change and resource depletion-driven and amplified catastrophes that will create initial fast drops in global food production, industrial output, population, and resource use and availability. From 2030 to 2040, these global factors will worsen exponentially in all the mentioned areas. From 2040 to 2050, the worst climate change and related global consequences will be experienced, resulting in about half of humanity perishing.
5. Rational and ethical politicians, governments, corporations, or citizens can no longer discount the repeated consistency of results of the previous six Club of Rome/MIT-related studies. Their consistency of results should compel immediate short, mid, and long-range planning adjustments for food production, population levels, industrial output, available resources, and pollution, mainly because of the sooner-than-expected steep declines and collapse within those variables. Climate change-driven mass extinctions, and possibly near-total extinctions, are now significantly harder for rational and ethical individuals and organizations to reject.
6. Unlike other studies, which predicted more time to try to improve the five collapse variables, our research indicates that the world has only about another 3 to 8 years to prevent an even earlier arrival of a climate change consequence-driven global collapse and mass extinction.
7. One of the most significant misunderstandings most people have about climate change is that climate change consequences will steadily get a little bit worse each year, and it will go on like that for many decades, thus matching the slow and gradual global warming temperature rises. This assumption about the many primary and secondary climate change consequences is entirely wrong.
Climate tipping points, feedback loops, and the primary and secondary climate change consequences will not just get a little bit worse each year. From 2025-2031, climate change consequences will radically increase in severity, frequency, and scale. Few individuals, businesses, or nations will be even remotely prepared for this radical climate consequence escalation without drastic intervention and preparation.
After 2031, climate change consequences will begin to increase exponentially. This exponential rise in climate consequences will further accelerate global climate chaos and collapse.
It is vital to grasp what climate consequences suddenly increasing exponentially means. In the graph below, the red line is an example of a linear gradual increase trajectory. Linear progression equals 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, etc. The green line is an example of an exponential increase curve and trajectory. Exponential progression equals 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 264, etc.
8. We estimate that due to the global collapse factors mentioned above, about one-half of all large and small businesses will be out of business by 2050. By 2070-2080, seven eight's (or more) of all companies existing today will be gone.
9. A minor side effect of this nightmare is that global Federal Reserve Banks worldwide will never be able to control rising inflation because of the accelerating worldwide climate change-driven food production failures. These continuously increasing food production failures and collapses will cause prices to soar everywhere as less and less food becomes available.
In order to prevent global food-driven riots and war, governments will be forced to institute global food rationing. Additionally, because food costs are a significant part of most of humanity's budget, high inflation will be a steady new reality for humanity's foreseeable future.
10. The suffering, trauma, death, and chaos coming to our ecological, economic, social, and political systems will be unfathomable and inconceivable at nearly every level. If we do not get close to the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets, climate change will result in the unavoidable extinction of half of humanity by mid-century. But that is not even the worst probable outcome. If we do not come close to the 2025 fossil fuel reduction targets, there will probably be a near-total extinction of humanity by about 2070-2080.
11. There are those politicians and billionaires who falsely believe that they will be able to survive even the worst possible global collapse of humanity. This arrogance will block the necessary changes that need to be made today.
This arrogance will also prove fatal to those politicians and billionaires who can not fully comprehend the unpredictable layers of systemic chaos that will be released during a widespread collapse of the human population. Among many things, they do not fathom that soon after a widespread global collapse, a drastically smaller human population will lose the critical skills and knowledge needed to provide essential services, build machines, and extract the critical resources that humanity will need to live anything like the post-modern lives we live today. They also seem unable to grasp that the most likely subsequent outcome after a widespread global collapse will eventually be a new type of post-modern Dark Age that could last for decades and centuries!
Click here to see the fate of those arrogant individuals who have the power to fix climate change but do not and think they can selfishly "game the system" one more time and somehow still survive what's coming. To see what the nightmare will be like for those arrogant and powerful individuals, go to the section on this page called; Step 2: If Positive Approaches Do Not Work on the 1%, it's Time for the Negative Fear and Greed Approaches. It is a bit past halfway down this page.
12. A climate change-fueled and resource depletion global collapse process will worsen almost every other major problem facing humanity. Climate change will act as the greatest disruptor of the 21st century and as an amplifier and multiplier for almost all of humanity's worsening global problems. Click here to see the detailed processes for how climate change fuels global collapse and helps expedite the above collapse predictions of the Club of Rome/MIT original global collapse study (and its now five subsequent verification studies.)
13. It is blatantly immoral and unjust that so many innocent people who have so little to do with creating the climate change emergency or have no power to fix it will also be the unaware ones who will suffer first and the worst.
14. When a widespread global system collapse occurs, few realize that individuals, nations, and groups will move quickly into survival mode. In a longer-term survival mode, chaos thrives, and people will do the worst and unimaginable things to each other to survive.
In the survival mode, if system collapses are widespread enough, humanity could quickly move into a new kind of Dark Age for decades to centuries. The massive uncertainties and unpredictability that a globalize collapse in critical areas would produce is something that would legitimately keep any rational person in a state of near-panic, particularly if they could see that this widespread collapse was unavoidable or coming soon. The biggest global collapse problem may very well be how do we as individuals, groups, or nations remain kind, rational, and just when everything is falling apart, and everyone around us is afraid, hungry, and desperate.
15. The most profound causes of our current situation are overpopulation, unsustainable consumerism, and overshoot. A rational solution to the collapse predicted by all previously mentioned collapse studies and accelerated by the climate change emergency is the comprehensive and honest solution discussed in the Job One Plan B. This plan will slow down a climate change accelerated global collapse and offer humanity a chance for a better outcome and future by:
a. Getting our governments to fix the climate change nightmare before it is too late to affect the predictions of all previous Club of Rome/MIT-related studies. (What we mean when we say "fix climate change" is when our governments have completed almost ALL of the deadline-prioritized climate remedial government actions listed on this page. This includes having our governments immediately enforce reducing global fossil fuel use to get close to the 2025 global targets.)
c. Getting individuals, businesses, and nations to make the necessary Plan B emergency preparations and adaptations simultaneously and, where applicable, relocate to lessen the effects of the many unavoidable primary and secondary consequences of our current runaway global heating.
d. Getting individual citizens to adopt most of the sustainability practices listed in this series of pages.
16. The soon-arriving Great Global Collapse could also become a powerful stimulus for the birth of a more just and equitable Great Global Society. But, this Great Global Society possibility is unlikely to be anything like what today's billionaires, industrialists, and politicians are currently trying to maintain for their private advantage. Click here to see the during-collapse and post-collapse opportunities and possibilities of a Great Global Society, which will serve the well-being of ALL humanity, not just the privileged few.
12. Documentation links to help explain how we came to our study analysis
1. You can download a free copy of the original Club of Rome/MIT study, Limits to Growth, click here. (Above in the body of this article, we have listed the original graph from the original Club of Rome/MIT study. In the article above, we re-did it to use a scale and an illustration style to make it easier to understand.
2. Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, 2004 (written by the original authors) https://www.amazon.com/Limits-Growth-Donella-H-Meadows/dp/193149858X/
3. Is Global Collapse Imminent?: Turner, G. 2014 'Is Global Collapse Imminent?', MSSI Research Paper No. 4, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/2763500/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf
4. KPMG Accounting firm 2021 study, Gaya Herrington https://advisory.kpmg.us/content/dam/advisory/en/pdfs/2021/yale-publication.pdf
5. Limits and Beyond: 50 years on from The Limits to Growth, what did we learn, and what's next? 2022 Ugo Bardi https://www.amazon.com/Limits-Growth-Revisited-SpringerBriefs-Energy/dp/1441994157
6. Click here for the four extinction-driving climate tipping points, the first being crossed from 2025 -2031. This page will explain precisely why we only have 3-8 years left to maintain some level of effective control over our climate future before the immutable laws of climate and atmospheric greenhouse gas physics take over.
7. Click here for the climate-driven processes of global collapse and mass to near-total extinction. Here you will see the cascade of almost 80 primary and secondary climate change consequences unfolding and interacting with humanity's 11 other major global crises. After reading this page, you will also further understand why the extinction of half of humanity by 2050 is already an unavoidable reality and that all that remains now is to fight to prevent humanity's near-total extinction.
8. Click here to understand the long-term history of the IPCC underestimating the consequences, timeframes, and the needed global fossil fuel reduction targets by as much as 20-40% or more. This page and its linked pages will help explain why the current 2025 global fossil fuel reductions are so severe to compensate for the 60-plus years society has delayed and failed to make the required gradual fossil fuel reductions. Unfortunately, the Club of Rome/MIT's four related verification studies did not have, did not use, or improperly did use the grossly underestimated climate summary reports of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For example, job One for Humanity did not use the error-ridden IPCC climate summaries but relied upon research by climate scientists who contributed their research to the UN. (For the many serious reasons we did not use UC climate change summary reports, click here.)
9. Click here to see the eleven key runaway global heating tipping points that have been all but excluded from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculations. It also contains the tipping point theory and why crossing these climate tipping points is dangerous to all aspects of our globalized society.
10. Click here to understand the 2025 global fossil fuel reduction targets and why they are the honest, last-chance targets our governments need to come close to before it is too late to prevent near-total extinction. In addition, it has very detailed technical notes on the many factors behind the correctly adjusted 2025 global fossil fuel target calculations.
11. Click here to see the ten most critical illustrated facts about the climate and runaway global warming. It and its links will explain runaway global warming, what near-total extinction vs. total extinction means, and why we face only near-total extinction, not total extinction. Finally, it will explain humanity's tiny but real hope for a livable future if billionaires act with many of the world's citizens.
12. Click here to read the ten most dangerous things almost everyone does not understand about the runaway global heating emergency. It is critical to understand the gross underestimation and other flaws and factors not being fully accounted for in current climate risk assessments based on the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) calculations and modeling. This page will also offer additional critical climate momentum and inertia factors and other climate insights as to why we have 3-9 years left to maintain some level of effective control over our climate future.
13. Click here to read about the UN's IPCC's widespread lack of including climate change tipping points and climate feedback loops in its calculations, predictions, and solutions.
14. Click here to review a comprehensive, critical path-prioritized plan that can honestly and effectively prevent near-total human extinction before it is too late.
15. The two greenhouse gas graphs below illustrate our governments' complete and utter failure over the last 60 + years to reduce the greenhouse gases causing our current accelerating runaway global heating.
We strongly recommend you review this powerful methane graph for a few moments. If you are a tech person, its underlying documentation is also available. Methane as a gas is 86 times more potent than carbon as a temperature-increasing greenhouse gas; it will rapidly spike up the average global temperatures and eventually to extinction-accelerating levels.
16. Just in case you still believe your governments have been protecting you from the accelerating consequences of global heating caused by burning more and more fossil fuel, here on one combined graph, it shows all of the three major fossil fuel-related greenhouse gases, carbon (CO2), methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O).
17. Click here for more details on Job One for Humanity's 2023 and beyond climate change predictions.
18. Click here for much, but not all, of the climate data used in this article.
19. Here is information about the processes and methodology we used in doing the climate analysis for this article.
20. Climate change-driven national and personal costs are so huge that no rational person, government or military agency, national or international investment bank, or fund would ever allow a climate change-driven mass extinction and global collapse to proceed. These massive and un-survivable national and personal costs are covered in a detailed timeline on this strongly recommended page in our Members-Only section. (Yes, you will need to become a member with a donation of any size. Your donation will help support our independent, 100% publicly funded climate change think tank.)
If you live between the 45th and 55th parallels, your consequences will be lighter than most other areas but still painful. If you live above the 55th parallel north or south, you will still have many severe consequences. In many ways, these consequences are worse than for those living between the 45th and 55th parallel. You will experience more wildfires, and temperatures will be much higher than ever before; melting permafrost and tundra will cause all kinds of infrastructure problems, and it will be harder to grow food in these areas.
In the areas above the 55th parallels north and south, and to some degree in the areas between the 45th and 55th parallels, the melting tundra and permafrost will release frozen viruses, and bacteria humanity has never seen. This has already happened with a virus we have seen, Anthrax. After just surviving the global disruptions and deaths of the Covid 19 pandemic and its many mutations, it would be dangerous to relocate or migrate in an increasingly disruptive global environment to melting tundra and permafrost areas and be unaware that you may be the first victims and vaccine guinea pigs for the next likely pandemic source.
23. As mentioned in the KPMG study, our research has also found the same disinformation tactics have continued regarding the above collapse predictions and timeframes. We have also tracked a significant increase in fossil fuel-funded disinformation and significantly increased political lobbying. We have seen fossil fuel lobbyists and their agents expanding into co-opting the boards of directors and missions of prominent environmental groups that seriously threaten their fossil fuel profits.
24. Click here to review the 28 most significant challenges the governments must resolve to get close the 2025 global reduction targets. They are huge, and we are almost out of time. Unfortunately, many individuals and researchers believe we will not overcome these challenges.
25. You now have the same survival-critical climate and global collapse information as well-funded national and military intelligence agencies, high-security clearance national politicians, the ultra-wealthy, hedge funds, and investment and international banks.
13. Why does our climate change think tank research and publish this and other climate change information
Job One for Humanity, founded in 2008, is a non-profit, independent, and 100% publicly funded climate change think tank. It provides an uncensored "big picture" holistic view and dialectical meta-systemic analysis of the many inter-connected and inter-dependent climate systems creating our current climate change emergency and runaway global heating.
We believe that every global citizen deserves the same climate change future threat and risk information as is given to our national intelligence agencies. Every citizen should also have the same climate information purchased at great expense by hedge funds, investment banks, and billionaires from their specialty risk analysis firms.
Unrestricted and uncensored climate change current risk knowledge is critical for all citizens to wisely initiate appropriate survival-related emergency preparations, adaptations, or relocations for the coming avoidable and unavoidable climate catastrophes. Furthermore, our free climate change facts and analysis ensure that every global can protect themselves, their families, and their businesses as well as those with political privilege, high-security governmental positions, or great wealth.
Our climate articles and climate emergency analysis are completely un-influenced and uncensored by any political agenda, political party, or other political force. Unlike many other climate and environmental nonprofit educational organizations, we refuse to knowingly take any donations from fossil fuel lobbyists, producers, or fossil fuel-dependent industries to ensure no possible conflicts of interest or even the appearance of a conflict of interest.
We promise our fully-independent climate change think tank will always tell you the full climate truth and what many often do not want to hear about our current climate change emergency. This climate information IS precisely the same painful climate change information you will need to protect yourself and your future.
Here are links to the other two articles in the Club of Rome/MIT and related studies series
Here are the links to our first two articles in this three-part series:
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